International trade logistics path planning method and system based on multi-dimensional data

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of international trade logistics path planning, in particular to an international trade logistics path planning method and system based on multi-dimensional data. According to the method, multi-dimensional data such as policies and regulations, economic stability, market opening degree and infrastructure construction are comprehensively considered, the trade convenience and trade stability of a trade country can be more comprehensively evaluated, logistics path planning is more accurate and scientific through comprehensive consideration of the multi-dimensional data, and the logistics path planning efficiency is improved. One-sidedness and misleading possibly caused by single-dimension data are effectively avoided, so that a better international trade logistics path is planned, the risk of international trade is reduced, and the international competitiveness of an enterprise is improved; the technical problem that the optimal logistics efficiency and cost control cannot be realized possibly because the complexity and diversity of political economic environments of different countries are not fully considered in the design and planning of logistics paths in the process of international trade activities at present is solved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of international trade logistics path planning, and particularly to a method and system for planning international trade logistics paths based on multi-dimensional data. Background Art

[0002] In the process of conducting international trade activities, the design and planning of logistics paths is an extremely important link. These paths may cross the territories of multiple countries, and each country has its unique political and economic background. These background factors, including but not limited to policies and regulations, economic stability, market openness, and infrastructure construction, may have direct or indirect impacts on the efficiency of international trade. For example, due to tense political relations in some countries, the customs clearance efficiency of goods may be low, or due to economic sanctions, some goods may not be able to circulate smoothly. However, currently, when planning international trade logistics paths, the complexity and diversity of the political and economic environments of different countries are often not fully considered, which may lead to the inability to achieve optimal logistics efficiency and cost control. Summary of the Invention

[0003] Aiming at the deficiencies of the prior art, the present invention provides a method and system for planning international trade logistics paths based on multi-dimensional data, and solves the technical problem that in the process of conducting international trade activities currently, the design and planning of logistics paths do not fully consider the complexity and diversity of the political and economic environments of different countries, which may lead to the inability to achieve optimal logistics efficiency and cost control.

[0004] To solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides the following technical solutions: A method for planning international trade logistics paths based on multi-dimensional data, and the planning method specifically includes the following steps: S1. Obtain the basic data of international trade between the country where the enterprise to be traded is located and the trading country, including the number of enterprises and the trade duration of each enterprise; S2. Construct a trade facilitation index model for each trading country based on trade facilitation indicators, and calculate the trade facilitation index of each trading country relative to the country where the enterprise to be traded is located according to the index scores; S3. Calculate the trade stability of the enterprise to be traded and the trading country in conducting international trade during the trade time according to the basic data; S4. Screen out several trading countries from all trading countries according to the trade stability and trade facilitation index; S5. Plan the international trade logistics path for transporting the goods from the enterprise to be traded to the destination according to the goods of the enterprise to be traded and the selected trading countries.

[0005] Preferably, in step S2, it specifically includes the following steps: S21. Obtain several trade facilitation indicators and corresponding indicator scores for establishing a trade facilitation indicator model, and perform preprocessing; S22. Successively construct an influence evaluation model between the country where the enterprise to be traded is located and each trading country with each trade facilitation indicator and indicator score. The model expression is: ; In the above formula, represents the international trade export volume of the country where the enterprise to be traded is located to the jth trading country in the tth year, represents the ath trade facilitation indicator of the jth trading country in the tth year, represents the proportion of the GDP of the jth trading country in the tth year to the GDP of the country where the enterprise to be traded is located, represents the total population of the jth trading country in the tth year, represents the distance between the capital of the jth trading country and the capital of the country where the enterprise to be traded is located, represents the trade openness of the jth trading country in the tth year, and respectively represent the first coefficient, the second coefficient, the third coefficient, the fourth coefficient and the fifth coefficient, represents the adjustment factor; S23. Conduct a regression analysis on each influence evaluation model to generate the regression coefficient of each trade facilitation indicator with respect to the international trade export volume of the country where the enterprise to be traded is located to each trading country, so as to obtain the influence of each trade facilitation indicator on the trading country; S24. Select several trade facilitation indicators whose influence on the same trading country is greater than the influence threshold, and normalize their influence. The normalization formula is: ; In the above formula, and respectively represent the influence of the ith trade facilitation indicator of the jth trading country after and before normalization. The jth trading country has M trade facilitation indicators whose influence is greater than the influence threshold; S25. According to the trade facilitation indicators selected by each trading country and the corresponding influence, establish a trade facilitation index model for each trading country respectively, and calculate the trade facilitation index of each trading country relative to the country where the enterprise to be traded is located. The expression of this model is: ; In the above formula, represents the trade facilitation index of the jth trading country relative to the country where the enterprise to be traded is located, represents the indicator score of the ith trade facilitation indicator of the jth trading country.

[0006] Preferably, in step S21, it specifically includes the following steps: S211. Obtain a number of trade facilitation indicators and corresponding indicator scores for establishing a trade facilitation indicator model for any trading country; S212. Arrange the indicator scores of each trade facilitation indicator in chronological order to obtain score time series data, and mark the time corresponding to the missing indicator scores in the score time series data as missing time; S213. Select the missing time in chronological order, and establish filling windows spanning several time periods before and after the missing time respectively, and extract the score time series data corresponding to the time within the two filling windows respectively to obtain two sets of standard time series data; S214. Calculate the average value of the modes in the two sets of standard time series data respectively. The calculation formula is: ; ; In the above formula, and respectively represent the average values of the modes in the two sets of standard time series data before and after the missing time, represents the th mode in the first set of standard time series data. There are N modes in the first set of standard time series data, represents the th mode in the other set of standard time series data. There are M modes in this set of standard time series data; S215. Calculate the indicator score corresponding to the missing time according to the average values and ; S216. Determine whether there is missing time in the score time series data; If so, return to step S212; If not, enter step S217; S217. Normalize the indicator scores corresponding to all trade facilitation indicators.

[0007] Preferably, in step S215, it specifically includes the following steps: S2151. Obtain the missing time corresponding to the two sets of standard time series data, obtain the number of data that are missing time and adjacent to the missing time in the score time series data, and count the total number of missing time between the two sets of standard time series data; S2152. Calculate the difference between the average values of the modes in the two sets of standard time series data to obtain a first difference. The calculation formula is: ; In the above formula, represents the first difference; S2153. Respectively obtain the number of data belonging to the mode in two groups of standard timing data to obtain the first quantity; S2154. Calculate the ratio of the first quantity of the standard timing data that is later in time to the first quantity of the standard timing data that is earlier in time to obtain the first ratio ; S2155. Construct a power function , and substitute into the power function to calculate the b value; S2156. Set a number of breakpoints between the averages of the modes in the two groups of standard timing data. The number of breakpoints is equal to the total number of missing times, and calculate the value of any breakpoint according to the first difference and the power function.

[0008] Preferably, in step S3, it specifically includes the following steps: S31. Divide the enterprises in the country where the enterprise to be traded is located into several enterprise types according to a predetermined rule; S32. According to the basic data, obtain the number of enterprises that conduct international trade with the trading country and the trade duration of each enterprise of the same enterprise type as the enterprise to be traded to obtain standard data; S33. Construct a first probability function that the trade duration T between the country where the enterprise to be traded is located and the trading country exceeds t years according to the standard data. The expression of the first probability function is as follows: ; In the above formula, represents the probability that the trade duration T between the country where the enterprise to be traded is located and the trading country exceeds t years, represents the probability that T is greater than or equal to t; S34. Estimate the first probability function by the Kaplan-Meier product limit estimator method to obtain an estimated value of the probability that the trade duration T between the country where the enterprise to be traded is located and the trading country exceeds t years. The calculation formula of the estimated value is: ; In the above formula, represents the estimated value of the probability that the trade duration T between the country where the enterprise to be traded is located and the trading country exceeds t years, represents the number of enterprises that are still trading with the trading country at the beginning of the kth year in the standard data, represents the number of enterprises that abandon trading with the trading country at the beginning of the kth year in the standard data; S35. Construct a second probability function for the country where the enterprise to be traded is located to abandon trading with the trading country in the t-th year after continuously trading with the trading country for t - 1 years according to the standard data. The expression of the second probability function is as follows: ; In the above formula, represents the probability that the country where the enterprise to be traded is located abandons trading with the trading country in the t-th year after continuously trading with the trading country for t - 1 years, represents the conditional probability that the country where the enterprise to be traded is located abandons trading with the trading country in the t-th year after continuously trading with the trading country for t - 1 years; S36. Estimate the second probability function by the Kaplan-Meier product limit estimator method to obtain an estimated value of the probability that the country where the enterprise to be traded is located abandons trading with the trading country in the t-th year after continuously trading with the trading country for t - 1 years. The calculation formula of this estimated value is: ; In the above formula, represents the estimated value of the probability that the country where the enterprise to be traded is located abandons trading with the trading country in the t-th year after continuously trading with the trading country for t - 1 years; S37. Obtain the trading time between the enterprise to be traded and the trading country, and calculate the stability of the international trade between the enterprise to be traded and the trading country during the trading time.

[0009] Preferably, in step S4, it specifically includes the following steps: S41. Calculate the average value of the stability of each year of all trading countries within any period of time; S42. Calculate the standard deviation of the stability according to the average value of the stability of all trading countries; S43. Calculate the dynamic stability threshold according to the average value and standard deviation of the stability. The calculation formula is: ; In the above formula, represents the dynamic stability threshold, and respectively represent the first stability factor and the second stability factor, and respectively represent the average value and standard deviation of the stability of each year of all trading countries within a period of time; S44. Set the trade facilitation index threshold, and calculate the benefit degree of each trading country according to the stability threshold; S45. Screen out the trading countries with stability greater than the dynamic stability threshold and the trade facilitation index greater than the trade facilitation index threshold, and mark them as candidate trading countries; S46. Mark several candidate trading countries with the maximum benefit degree as trading countries.

[0010] Preferably, in step S2156, the calculation formula for the value of any segmentation point according to the first difference and the power function is: ; In the above formula, represents the value of the index score of the f-th segmentation point, represents the total number of missing times, represents the first difference, represents the average value of the mode in a group of standard time series data before the missing time, represents the symbol of rounding and taking the integer.

[0011] Preferably, in step S37, the calculation formula for stability is: ; In the above formula, represents the stability of the enterprise to be traded and the trading country in international trade during the trading time, and respectively represent the trading time of the enterprise to be traded and the trading country and the initial trading time of continuously conducting international trade for several years currently.

[0012] Preferably, in step S46, the calculation formula for the benefit degree is: ; In the above formula, represents the benefit degree of the j-th trading country, and respectively represent the stability deviation factor and the facilitation deviation factor, represents the stability of the enterprise to be traded and the j-th trading country in international trade during the trading time, represents the threshold of the trade facilitation index, and respectively represent the maximum and minimum values of the stability corresponding to each trading country, and respectively represent the maximum and minimum values of the stability corresponding to each trading country.

[0013] The present invention also provides a planning system for the international trade logistics path based on multi-dimensional data, including a processor and a memory. The memory is used to store a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by the processor, the above-mentioned planning method for the international trade logistics path is realized.

[0014] By the above technical solutions, the present invention provides a method and system for planning international trade logistics paths based on multi-dimensional data, which at least have the following beneficial effects: 1. In the present invention, considering that in international trade, the political and economic environments of different countries vary significantly, directly affecting the selection and efficiency of logistics paths. By comprehensively considering multi-dimensional data such as policies and regulations, economic stability, market openness, and infrastructure construction, it is possible to more comprehensively evaluate the trade facilitation and trade stability of trading countries. This comprehensive consideration of multi-dimensional data makes the logistics path planning more accurate and scientific, effectively avoiding the one-sidedness and misleading that may be brought by single-dimensional data, thereby planning a better international trade logistics path and enhancing the international competitiveness of enterprises.

[0015] 2. The present invention effectively solves the technical problems in the traditional international trade logistics path planning, such as the lack of in-depth evaluation of the trade facilitation and trade stability of trading countries, resulting in sub-optimal selection of logistics paths, low logistics efficiency, and high logistics costs, by screening out trading countries that meet predetermined requirements and planning the optimal international trade logistics path. The optimized logistics path can reduce unnecessary transshipment and waiting times, improve logistics efficiency, while reducing logistics costs and enhancing the economic benefits and market competitiveness of enterprises.

[0016] 3. By setting a number of trade facilitation indicators and constructing a trade facilitation indicator model for each trading country, the present invention can accurately calculate the trade facilitation index of each trading country relative to the country where the enterprise to be traded is located. This accurate evaluation provides a scientific basis for logistics path planning, enabling enterprises to select the most suitable logistics path according to the trade facilitation indexes of different trading countries and optimizing the allocation of logistics resources.

[0017] 4. By calculating the trade stability of the enterprise to be traded and the trading country in international trade during the trading time, the present invention can accurately evaluate the continuous trading ability of the trading country. This accurate evaluation helps enterprises avoid trading countries with high risks, ensure the stability and reliability of the logistics path, reduce the risks of trade interruption and logistics delay, and protect the trade interests of enterprises.

[0018] 5. By calculating the benefit degrees of each trading country and screening out a number of candidate trading countries according to the benefit degrees, the present invention realizes personalized secondary screening of candidate trading countries. This personalized screening takes into account the specific needs and preferences of the enterprise's goods, improves the flexibility and adaptability of logistics path planning, enables enterprises to select the most suitable trading country according to their own situations, optimize the logistics path, and enhance trade benefits. Description of the Drawings

[0019] The accompanying drawings described herein are used to provide a further understanding of the present application and form a part of the present application. The illustrative embodiments and descriptions thereof of the present application are used to explain the present application and do not constitute an improper limitation of the present application. In the drawings: Figure 1 It is a flowchart of the method for planning the international trade logistics path of the present invention. Detailed implementation manners

[0020] In order to make the above objects, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and understandable, the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific implementation manners. Thereby, the implementation process of how the present application uses technical means to solve technical problems and achieve technical effects can be fully understood and implemented accordingly.

[0021] Those of ordinary skill in the art can understand that all or part of the steps in the methods of the above embodiments can be completed by instructing relevant hardware through a program. Therefore, the present application can adopt the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Moreover, the present application can adopt the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0022] In order to solve the technical problem that in the process of current international trade activities, the design and planning of logistics paths do not fully consider the complexity and diversity of the political and economic environments of different countries, and thus may not be able to achieve optimal logistics efficiency and cost control, the present application provides a method for planning an international trade logistics path based on multi-dimensional data. On the basis of fully considering the complexity and diversity of the political and economic environments of different countries, several countries for planning the international trade logistics path are selected, so as to screen out countries that do not meet the predetermined requirements. The planning method specifically includes the following steps: S1. Obtain several countries where the goods of the enterprise to be traded can be imported and exported, that is, several countries that allow the enterprise to be traded to import and export goods, and mark them as trading countries. Obtain the number of enterprises in the country where the enterprise to be traded is located that conduct international trade with the trading countries and the trade duration of each enterprise's international trade with the trading countries to obtain basic data; S2. Based on the trade facilitation indicators, construct a trade facilitation indicator model for each trading country, and calculate the trade facilitation index of each trading country relative to the country where the enterprise to be traded is located according to the indicator scores. The data of the indicator system currently used to evaluate trade facilitation mainly comes from the Global Competitiveness Report, which contains the indicator scores of various trade facilitation indicators. However, there are many indicators related to trade facilitation in this report. Given the differences in the political and economic environments of different countries, the influence degrees of different indicators on the trade facilitation index of each country vary, and some indicators may have little impact on specific countries. Therefore, when calculating, it is necessary to screen out the indicators that have a significant impact on the trade facilitation of specific countries, and then construct a targeted trade facilitation indicator model to reduce the calculation amount and ensure the accuracy of the calculation results. The specific steps are as follows: S21. Obtain several trade facilitation indicators and their corresponding indicator scores for establishing the trade facilitation indicator model, and perform preprocessing. In the obtained trade facilitation indicators and their corresponding scores, the phenomenon of missing data occurs from time to time. To ensure the integrity of the indicator scores, it is necessary to supplement the missing data. In order to ensure the accuracy of the data while supplementing the missing data, this application analyzes the change trends of the data on both sides of the missing data, and then fills in the data. The specific steps are as follows: S211. Obtain several trade facilitation indicators and their corresponding indicator scores for establishing the trade facilitation indicator model of any trading country; S212. Arrange the indicator scores of each trade facilitation indicator in chronological order to obtain the score time series data. For example, arrange the corresponding indicator scores in the order from 2011 to 2025, and mark the time corresponding to the missing indicator score in the score time series data as the missing time. For example, if the indicator score of a certain trade facilitation indicator is missing in 2019, then mark 2019 as the missing time.

[0023] S213. Select the missing time in chronological order, and establish filling windows spanning several time periods before and after the missing time respectively, and extract the score time series data corresponding to the time in the two filling windows respectively to obtain two sets of standard time series data. For example, if 2019 is the missing time, then the two filling windows can be 2014 - 2018 and 2020 - 2024, both spanning 4 years, and extract the score time series data corresponding to the time in the two filling windows (2014 - 2018 and 2020 - 2024), so as to obtain two sets of standard time series data.

[0024] S214. Respectively obtain the modes in two groups of standard timing data. The mode is the value that appears most frequently, which reflects the approximate range where the data in the two groups of standard timing data are concentrated. Then, calculate the average value of the modes in the two groups of standard timing data respectively. The calculation formula is: ; ; In the above formula, and respectively represent the average values of the modes in the two groups of standard timing data before and after the missing time. represents the th mode in the first group of standard timing data. There are N modes in the first group of standard timing data. For example, if the mode of value A is 3 and the mode of value B is 2, and if 2 modes are to be taken, then there are 2 modes in this group of standard timing data, and the values corresponding to the 2 modes are A and B respectively. represents the th mode in the other group of standard timing data. There are M modes in this group of standard timing data; S215. According to the average values and calculate the index score of the corresponding missing time. Generally, the way to calculate the index score of the missing time is to calculate the average value of the average values of the modes in the two groups of standard timing data, that is, the sum of the average values of the modes in the two groups of standard timing data divided by 2. However, this method is relatively rough. In order to calculate the index score of the missing time that more accurately reflects the change law of the index score, the specific steps are as follows: S2151. Obtain the missing time corresponding to the two groups of standard timing data, obtain the number of data adjacent to and equal to the missing time in the score timing data, and count the total number of missing times between the two groups of standard timing data; S2152. Calculate the difference between the average values of the modes in the two groups of standard timing data to obtain the first difference. The calculation formula is: ; In the above formula, represents the first difference; S2153. Respectively obtain the number of data belonging to the modes in the two groups of standard timing data to obtain the first quantity; S2154. Calculate the ratio of the first quantity of the standard timing data at the later time to the first quantity of the standard timing data at the earlier time to obtain the first ratio ; S2155. Construct a power function and use Substitute it into the power function to calculate the value of b; S2156. Set several splitting points between the averages of the modes in two sets of standard timing data. The number of splitting points is equal to the total number of missing times, and calculate the value of any splitting point according to the first difference and the power function. The calculation formula is: ; In the above formula, represents the value of the index score of the f-th splitting point, represents the total number of missing times, represents the first difference, represents the average of the modes in a set of standard timing data before the missing time, represents the symbol of rounding and taking the integer. If the first quantity of the standard timing data in the later time is 4, and the first quantity of the standard timing data in the earlier time is 2, if a splitting point is set between the averages of the modes in two sets of standard timing data, it means that the value corresponding to this splitting point has a greater probability of being closer to the average of the modes of the standard timing data in the later time, rather than roughly setting it as the average of the averages of the modes in two sets of standard timing data. For example, for a set of data, if it is (2, 2, Q, 4, 4, 5, 4, 4), where Q is the missing data, then the value of Q has a greater probability of being between 3 and 4, that is, closer to the mode 4, rather than 2.

[0025] S216. Judge whether there is a missing time in the scoring timing data; if so, return to step S212 to fill the index score corresponding to the next missing time; if not, enter step S217; S217. Normalize the index scores corresponding to all trade facilitation indicators to ensure the consistency of dimensions.

[0026] S22. Successively construct an influence evaluation model between the country where the enterprise to be traded is located and each trading country with each trade facilitation indicator and the index score. The model expression is: ; In the above formula, represents the international trade export volume of the country where the enterprise to be traded is located to the j-th trading country in the t-th year, represents the a-th trade facilitation indicator of the j-th trading country in the t-th year, represents the proportion of the GDP of the j-th trading country in the t-th year to the GDP of the country where the enterprise to be traded is located, represents the total population of the j-th trading country in the t-th year, represents the distance between the capital of the j-th trading country and the capital of the country where the enterprise to be traded is located, represents the trade openness of the j-th trading country in the t-th year, and represent the first coefficient, the second coefficient, the third coefficient, the fourth coefficient, and the fifth coefficient respectively, represents the adjustment factor.

[0027] S23. Conduct a regression analysis on each influence evaluation model. For example, use random effects generalized least squares regression for the regression analysis to generate the regression coefficients of each trade facilitation indicator with respect to the international trade export volume of each trading country to the country where the enterprise to be traded is located, so as to obtain the influence of each trade facilitation indicator on the trading country; S24. For different countries, select several trade facilitation indicators whose influence on the same trading country is greater than the influence threshold to achieve the screening of trade facilitation indicators, obtain the trade facilitation indicators corresponding to each country respectively, and normalize their influence to unify the dimension. The calculation formula is: ; In the above formula, and represent the influence of the i-th trade facilitation indicator of the j-th trading country after and before normalization respectively. The j-th trading country has M trade facilitation indicators whose influence is greater than the influence threshold.

[0028] S25. According to the trade facilitation indicators selected by each trading country and the corresponding influence, establish a trade facilitation index model for each trading country respectively, and calculate the trade facilitation index of each trading country relative to the country where the enterprise to be traded is located. The expression of this model is: ; In the above formula, represents the trade facilitation index of the j-th trading country relative to the country where the enterprise to be traded is located, represents the index score of the i-th trade facilitation indicator of the j-th trading country.

[0029] S3. Calculate the trade stability of the enterprise to be traded and the trading country in the international trade during the trade time according to the basic data. The trade stability between countries can be inferred by the length of the trade duration between the enterprise and the trading partner country. When there is turmoil in the trading partner country, the number of enterprises conducting international trade with it will often decrease significantly. In this case, the enterprise should not choose this turbulent country as a transit point or destination of the logistics path. The specific evaluation process of stability includes the following steps: S31. Divide the enterprises in the country where the enterprise to be traded is located into several enterprise types according to a predetermined rule. The enterprise types can be classified as food, beverages and tobacco, textiles, clothing and leather, wood and printed products, chemical raw materials and products, electronic and optical equipment products, mechanical equipment products, transportation products, etc., and will not be listed one by one here.

[0030] S32. Obtain the number of enterprises in the same enterprise type as the enterprise to be traded that conduct international trade with the trading country and the trade duration of each enterprise based on the basic data to obtain standard data. S33. Construct a first probability function for the trade duration T between the country where the enterprise to be traded is located and the trading country exceeding t years according to the standard data. The expression of the first probability function is as follows: ; In the above formula, represents the probability that the trade duration T between the country where the enterprise to be traded is located and the trading country exceeds t years. represents the probability that T is greater than or equal to t. S34. Estimate the first probability function by the Kaplan-Meier product limit estimator method to obtain an estimated value of the probability that the trade duration T between the country where the enterprise to be traded is located and the trading country exceeds t years. The calculation formula of the estimated value is: ; In the above formula, represents the estimated value of the probability that the trade duration T between the country where the enterprise to be traded is located and the trading country exceeds t years. represents the number of enterprises in the standard data that are still trading with the trading country at the beginning of the kth year. represents the number of enterprises in the standard data that abandon trading with the trading country at the beginning of the kth year. S35. Construct a second probability function for the country where the enterprise to be traded is located to abandon trading with the trading country in the tth year after continuously trading with the trading country for t - 1 years according to the standard data. The expression of the second probability function is as follows: ; In the above formula, represents the probability that the country where the enterprise to be traded is located abandons trading with the trading country in the tth year after continuously trading with the trading country for t - 1 years. represents the conditional probability that the country where the enterprise to be traded is located abandons trading with the trading country in the tth year after continuously trading with the trading country for t - 1 years. S36. Estimate the second probability function by the Kaplan-Meier product-limit estimator to obtain an estimated value of the probability that the country where the enterprise to be traded is located will abandon trading with the trading country in the t-th year after continuously trading with the trading country for t - 1 years. The calculation formula for this estimated value is: ; In the above formula, represents the estimated value of the probability that the country where the enterprise to be traded is located will abandon trading with the trading country in the t-th year after continuously trading with the trading country for t - 1 years; S37. Obtain the trading time between the enterprise to be traded and the trading country, the trading time and the time when the goods pass through the trading country, and calculate the stability of the international trade between the enterprise to be traded and the trading country during the trading time. The calculation formula for stability is: ; In the above formula, represents the stability of the international trade between the enterprise to be traded and the trading country during the trading time, and respectively represent the trading time between the enterprise to be traded and the trading country and the initial trading time when continuous trading has been carried out for a certain number of years currently.

[0031] S4. Select several trading countries from all trading countries according to the trade stability and trade facilitation index. When the enterprise to be traded conducts international trade with trading countries within a certain region, if the region is in a state of unrest, the overall stability is relatively low. At this time, in order to ensure the export of goods to maintain the enterprise's benefits, it is necessary to select trading countries with relatively better situations from the trading countries in this region for international trade logistics path planning. The specific steps are as follows: S41. Calculate the average value of the stability of each year of all trading countries within any period of time; S42. Calculate the standard deviation of the stability according to the average value of the stability of all trading countries; S43. Calculate the dynamic stability threshold according to the average value and standard deviation of the stability. The calculation formula is: ; In the above formula, represents the dynamic stability threshold, and respectively represent the first stability factor and the second stability factor, and respectively represent the average value and standard deviation of the stability of each year of all trading countries within a period of time. If all trading countries are in a state of unrest, the value of the dynamic stability threshold will also decrease relatively, and if the stability of all trading countries is relatively high, the value of the dynamic stability threshold will also increase relatively.

[0032] S44. Set the threshold of the trade facilitation index, and calculate the benefit degree of each trading country according to the stability threshold. The calculation formula is: ; In the above formula, represents the benefit degree of the j-th trading country, and represent the stability deviation factor and the facilitation deviation factor respectively, represents the stability of the enterprise to be traded in conducting international trade with the j-th trading country during the trading time, represents the threshold of the trade facilitation index, and represent the maximum and minimum values of the stability corresponding to each trading country respectively, and represent the maximum and minimum values of the stability corresponding to each trading country respectively, , by default, both are 1. Of course, they can also be set according to the type of goods. For example, for high-value goods, the value of generally needs to be greater than to increase the probability of ensuring the integrity of high-value goods during transportation. For perishable goods, if they cannot reach the destination within a certain period, the loss of goods will be relatively large. Then the value of

[0033] S45. Screen out the trading countries whose stability is greater than the dynamic stability threshold and the trade facilitation index is greater than the trade facilitation index threshold, and mark them as candidate trading countries. The candidate trading countries meet the minimum requirements of the enterprise for the stability and trade facilitation index of the trading country, so as to avoid trading countries with major risks.

[0034] S46. Mark several candidate trading countries with the largest benefit degree as trading countries to achieve secondary screening of the candidate trading countries in a personalized manner.

[0035] S5. According to the goods of the enterprise to be traded and the selected trading countries, plan the international trade logistics path for transporting the goods from the enterprise to be traded to the destination. Commonly used international trade logistics path planning algorithms include genetic algorithm, ant colony algorithm, digital twin simulation algorithm, etc., which will not be elaborated here.

[0036] The present invention also provides a planning system for international trade logistics paths based on multi-dimensional data, including a processor and a memory. The memory is used to store a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by the processor, the planning method of the international trade logistics path is realized.

[0037] The various embodiments in this specification are described in a progressive manner. Each embodiment focuses on the differences from other embodiments. For the same or similar parts among the various embodiments, reference can be made to each other. For the above embodiments, since they are basically similar to the method embodiments, the description is relatively simple. For the relevant parts, reference can be made to the partial description of the method embodiments.

[0038] The above embodiments have introduced the present invention in detail. Specific examples are used in this article to elaborate on the principle and implementation of the present invention. The description of the above embodiments is only used to help understand the method and its core idea of the present invention. At the same time, for those of ordinary skill in the art, based on the idea of the present invention, there will be changes in the specific implementation and application scope. In summary, the content of this specification should not be construed as a limitation on the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for planning international trade logistics paths based on multi-dimensional data, characterized in that, The planning method specifically includes the following steps: S1. Obtain basic data on international trade between the country where the enterprise to be traded is located and the trading country, including the number of enterprises and the duration of trade for each enterprise; S2. Construct a trade facilitation index model for each trading country based on the trade facilitation index, and calculate the trade facilitation index of each trading country relative to the country where the trading enterprise is located according to the index score; S3. Calculate the trade stability of international trade between the enterprise to be traded and the trading country during the trading period based on the basic data; S4. Select a number of trading countries from all trading countries based on the trade stability and trade facilitation indexes; S5. Based on the goods of the enterprise to be traded and the selected trading country, plan the international trade logistics route for transporting the goods from the enterprise to be traded to the destination.

2. The planning method of the international trade logistics path according to claim 1, wherein, In step S2, the following steps are specifically included: S21. obtaining a number of trade facilitation indicators and corresponding indicator scores for establishing a trade facilitation indicator model, and performing preprocessing; S22. Using each trade facilitation indicator and indicator score in turn, an influence assessment model between the country where the traded enterprise is located and each trading country is constructed. The model expression is: ； In the above formula, represents the international trade export volume of the country where the enterprise to be traded is located to the j-th trading country in the t-th year, represents the a-th trade facilitation index of the j-th trading country in the t-th year, represents the proportion of the GDP of the j-th trading country in the t-th year to the GDP of the country where the enterprise to be traded is located, represents the total population of the j-th trading country in the t-th year, represents the distance between the capital of the j-th trading country and the capital of the country where the enterprise to be traded is located, represents the trade openness of the j-th trading country in the t-th year, and respectively represent the first coefficient, the second coefficient, the third coefficient, the fourth coefficient and the fifth coefficient, represents the adjustment factor; S23. Conduct regression analysis on each impact assessment model to generate regression coefficients of each trade facilitation indicator relative to the international trade export volume of the country where the traded enterprise is located to each trading country, so as to obtain the influence of each trade facilitation indicator on the trading country; S24. Select several trade facilitation indicators whose influence on the same trading country is greater than the influence threshold, and normalize their influence. The normalization formula is: ； In the above formula, and respectively represent the influence after and before normalization of the i-th trade facilitation indicator of the j-th trading country. There are M trade facilitation indicators with influence greater than the influence threshold in the j-th trading country; S25. According to the trade facilitation indicators selected by each trading country and the corresponding influence, the trade facilitation index model of each trading country is established, and the trade facilitation index of each trading country relative to the country where the trading enterprise is located is calculated. The expression of the model is: ； In the above formula, represents the trade facilitation index of the j-th trading country relative to the country where the enterprise to be traded is located, represents the index score of the i-th trade facilitation indicator of the j-th trading country.

3. The planning method of the international trade logistics path according to claim 2, characterized in that, In step S21, the following steps are specifically included: S211. Obtaining a number of trade facilitation indicators and corresponding indicator scores for establishing a trade facilitation indicator model for any trading country; S212. Arrange the indicator scores of each trade facilitation indicator in chronological order to obtain score time series data, and mark the time corresponding to the missing indicator score in the score time series data as missing time; S213, selecting missing times in chronological order, and establishing filling windows spanning a plurality of times before and after the missing times, respectively, and extracting scoring time series data corresponding to the times in the two filling windows, respectively, to obtain two sets of standard time series data; S214, respectively calculate the average values of the modes in the two sets of standard time series data, and the calculation formula is: ； ； In the above formula, and respectively represent the average values of the modes in two sets of standard timing data before and after the missing time, represents the th mode in the first set of standard timing data, and there are N modes in the first set of standard timing data, represents the th mode in the other set of standard timing data, and there are M modes in this set of standard timing data; S215. Calculate the index score corresponding to the missing time according to the average value and ​ S216, determining whether there is missing time in the scoring time series data; If yes, return to step S212; If not, proceed to step S217; S217. Normalize the indicator scores corresponding to all trade facilitation indicators.

4. The planning method for the international trade logistics path according to claim 3, wherein In step S215, the following steps are specifically included: S2151. Obtain the missing times corresponding to two sets of standard timing data, obtain the number of data that are missing times and adjacent to the missing times in the scoring timing data, and count the total number of missing times between the two sets of standard timing data; S2152. Calculate the difference between the averages of the modes in the two sets of standard timing data to obtain a first difference. The calculation formula is: ； In the above formula, represents the first difference; S2153. Respectively obtain the number of data belonging to the mode in the two sets of standard timing data to obtain a first quantity; S2154. Calculate the ratio of the first quantity of the standard timing data that is later in time to the first quantity of the standard timing data that is earlier in time to obtain a first ratio. ; S2155. Construct a power function , and substitute into the power function to calculate the value of b; S2156. Set a number of dividing points between the averages of the modes in the two sets of standard timing data. The number of dividing points is equal to the total number of missing times, and calculate the value of any dividing point according to the first difference and a power function.

5. The planning method of the international trade logistics path according to claim 4, wherein, In step S2156, the calculation formula for calculating the value of any dividing point according to the first difference and a power function is: ； In the above formula, represents the numerical value of the index score of the f-th segmentation point, represents the total number of missing times, represents the first difference, represents the average value of the mode in a set of standard time series data before the missing time, represents the symbol of rounding and taking the integer.

6. The planning method of the international trade logistics path according to claim 1, characterized in that In step S3, it specifically includes the following steps: S31. Divide the enterprises in the country where the enterprise to be traded is located into several enterprise types according to a predetermined rule; S32. According to the basic data, obtain the number of enterprises in the same enterprise type as the enterprise to be traded that conduct international trade with the trading country and the trade duration of each enterprise to obtain standard data; S33. Construct a first probability function that the trade duration T between the country where the enterprise to be traded is located and the trading country exceeds t years according to the standard data. The expression of the first probability function is as follows: ； In the above formula, represents the probability that the duration T of trade between the country where the enterprise to be traded is located and the trading country exceeds t years, represents the probability that T is greater than or equal to t; S34. Estimate the first probability function by the Kaplan-Meier product-limit estimator method to obtain an estimated value of the probability that the trade duration T between the country where the enterprise to be traded is located and the trading country exceeds t years. The calculation formula of the estimated value is: ； In the above formula, represents an estimated value of the probability that the duration T of trade between the country where the enterprise to be traded is located and the trading country exceeds t years, represents the number of enterprises in the standard data that are still trading with the trading country at the beginning of the k-th year, represents the number of enterprises in the standard data that abandon trading with the trading country at the beginning of the k-th year; S35. Construct a second probability function that the country where the enterprise to be traded is located abandons trading with the trading country in the t-th year after continuously trading with the trading country for t - 1 years according to the standard data. The expression of the second probability function is as follows: ； In the above formula, represents the probability that the country where the enterprise to be traded is located abandons trading with the trading country in the t-th year after continuously trading with the trading country for t - 1 years. represents the conditional probability that the country where the enterprise to be traded is located abandons trading with the trading country in the t-th year after continuously trading with the trading country for t - 1 years. S36. Estimate the second probability function by the Kaplan-Meier product-limit estimator method to obtain an estimated value of the probability that the country where the enterprise to be traded is located abandons trading with the trading country in the t-th year after continuously trading with the trading country for t - 1 years. The calculation formula of this estimated value is: ； In the above formula, represents the estimated value of the probability that the country where the enterprise to be traded is located will abandon trading with the trading country in the t-th year after continuously trading with the trading country for t - 1 years; S37. Obtain the trade time between the enterprise to be traded and the trading country, and calculate the stability of the international trade between the enterprise to be traded and the trading country during the trade time.

7. The planning method of the international trade logistics path according to claim 5, characterized in that In step S37, the calculation formula for stability is: ； In the above formula, represents the stability of the international trade carried out by the enterprise to be traded and the trading country during the trading time, and respectively represent the trading time of the enterprise to be traded and the trading country and the initial trading time of the consecutive international trade carried out for several years currently.

8. The planning method of the international trade logistics path according to claim 1, characterized in that In step S4, it specifically includes the following steps: S41. Calculate the average value of the stability of each year of all trading countries within any period of time; S42. Calculate the standard deviation of the stability according to the average value of the stability of all trading countries; S43. Calculate the dynamic stability threshold according to the average value of the stability and the standard deviation. The calculation formula is: ； In the above formula, represents the dynamic stability threshold, and represent the first stability factor and the second stability factor respectively, and represent the average value and the standard deviation of the stability of each year of all trading countries over a period of time respectively; S44. Set a trade facilitation index threshold, and calculate the benefit degree of each trading country according to the stability threshold; S45. Screen out the trading countries with stability greater than the dynamic stability threshold and the trade facilitation index greater than the trade facilitation index threshold, and mark them as candidate trading countries; S46. Mark several candidate trading countries with the largest benefit degree as trading countries.

9. The planning method of the international trade logistics path according to claim 6, characterized in that In step S46, the calculation formula for the benefit degree is: ； In the above formula, represents the benefit degree of the j-th trading country, and respectively represent the stability deviation factor and the facilitation deviation factor, represents the stability of the enterprise to be traded in international trade with the j-th trading country during the trading time, represents the threshold of the trade facilitation index, and respectively represent the maximum and minimum values of the stability corresponding to each trading country, and respectively represent the maximum and minimum values of the stability corresponding to each trading country.

10. The planning method of the international trade logistics path according to claim 1, characterized in that, It includes a processor and a memory. The memory is used to store a computer program. When the computer program is executed by the processor, it implements the method for planning the international trade logistics path according to any one of claims 1-9.

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