New energy bearing capacity measuring and calculating method

Abstract

The invention relates to a new energy bearing capacity measuring and calculating method, and belongs to the technical field of electric power, and the method comprises the steps: carrying out 8760-hour electric power and electric quantity balance calculation in a research area, and carrying out the statistics of new energy abandoned electric quantity; calculating the upper limit of the new energy permeability in combination with system frequency stability calculation; correcting the new energy abandoned electric quantity according to the new energy permeability upper limit; and calculating a new energy consumption rate according to the corrected new energy abandoned electric quantity, and finally calculating the new energy bearing capacity by taking a new energy consumption rate index as a constraint. Through fusion of frequency and voltage stability calculation of the power system and by taking the system peak regulation capability and the new energy permeability as key constraint conditions, accurate measurement and calculation of the new energy bearing capability are realized, the problems of low new energy utilization rate and frequent power abandoning phenomena caused by deviation of a traditional measurement and calculation method are effectively solved, and the new energy bearing capability is improved. A solid scientific basis is provided for new energy planning and layout of a novel electric power system, and the construction process of the novel electric power system is powerfully supported.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the field of electric power technology, and specifically relates to a method for calculating the carrying capacity of new energy, and in particular to a method for calculating the carrying capacity of new energy based on the dual constraints of system peak regulation and new energy penetration rate. Background Art

[0002] As the global energy transition accelerates, the proportion of renewable energy sources (such as wind power, photovoltaics, and other renewable energy sources) in the power system continues to increase. The penetration rate of renewable energy—the proportion of renewable energy output in total installed power generation capacity—a key indicator for measuring power system transformation and planning, has also continued to rise. However, because renewable energy is significantly affected by weather conditions, its output is intermittent and volatile. When renewable energy penetration reaches a high level, it significantly increases the operational complexity of the power system and poses challenges to its frequency and voltage stability. To address this challenge, the power system needs to deploy more backup power sources, such as gas turbines, chemical energy storage, and pumped hydro storage, to balance the volatility of renewable energy. This not only increases the system's backup capacity requirements but also significantly increases the operating costs of the power system.

[0003] Currently, my country's installed capacity of renewable energy continues to grow rapidly. However, issues such as insufficient grid absorption capacity, limited peak-shaving capabilities, and poor transmission channels have resulted in the ineffective utilization of electricity generated by renewable energy generation systems such as wind and solar power, leading to frequent power curtailment. Regulation capacity development lacks coordinated optimization, existing regulatory resources are underutilized, and pricing and market mechanisms need to be improved.

[0004] In order to meet the above challenges, reduce the power curtailment rate, and improve the efficiency of new energy utilization, it is necessary to scientifically measure the carrying capacity of new energy. The traditional calculation method that only considers system peak regulation is optimistic, which will lead to the utilization rate of new energy falling short of expectations in actual operation, resulting in a large amount of wind and solar power curtailment. The present invention combines the frequency and voltage stability calculations of the power system, takes system peak regulation and new energy penetration as constraints, and can more accurately evaluate the carrying capacity of new energy in the region. This method not only helps to reduce the cost of backup capacity and the cost of grid upgrades, but also improves the reliability of grid operation and provides scientific guidance for the planning and layout of new energy. Summary of the Invention

[0005] In response to the above problems, the present invention provides a method for calculating the carrying capacity of new energy, and in particular provides a method for calculating the carrying capacity of new energy based on the dual constraints of system peak regulation and new energy penetration rate, so as to solve the problem that the calculation of the carrying capacity of new energy under the constraint of single system peak regulation has a large deviation from the actual operation, resulting in the utilization rate of the installed capacity of new energy failing to meet expectations and causing a large amount of power abandonment.

[0006] The specific technical solution is: a method for calculating the carrying capacity of new energy, including the following steps: Step 1: Define the boundaries of power sources and loads within the study area, perform 8760 hours of power balance calculations, and calculate the amount of renewable energy curtailment; Step 2: Conduct system frequency stability calculations for the study area and calculate the upper limit of renewable energy penetration; Step 3: Using the upper limit of renewable energy penetration as a constraint, correct the 8,760 hours of renewable energy curtailment. Step 4: Using the new energy consumption rate indicator as a constraint, adjust the scale of new energy in the power supply boundary and derive the new energy carrying capacity.

[0007] Furthermore, the 8760-hour power balance calculation described in step 1 is carried out to count the amount of abandoned power from new energy sources. The specific steps are as follows: 1) Determine the boundaries of power sources and loads (including internal loads and external loads) within the study area, and use the simulation software HUST to determine the values based on the regional power output characteristics and load characteristics. - GTDS, simulates 8760 hours of power balance and electricity balance calculation; The formula for calculating the power balance for 8760 hours is: (1) (2) Where, is the total power output at time t, is the hydropower output at time t, is the thermal power output at time t, The output of the energy storage power station at time t, Contribute to new energy at time t; The power abandoned by renewable energy at time t; The electricity that can be generated by renewable energy at time t; is the available electricity from renewable energy at time t; 2) Calculate the new energy curtailment rate: Calculate the new energy curtailment rate based on the power balance calculation table. The formula is: (3) Where Q is the new energy curtailment rate for the whole year, The amount of abandoned electricity from new energy sources throughout the year, .

[0008] Furthermore, the system frequency stability calculation is carried out in the study area described in step 2 to calculate the upper limit of the new energy penetration rate. The specific steps are as follows: 1) Conduct system frequency stability calculations in the study area: Use BPA power system simulation software to build scenario data for different renewable energy penetration rates, calculate single fault disturbances, and the second-level safety and stability involves the system frequency being stable after the fault stabilization control is correctly operated and not triggering the third line of defense. The scale of renewable energy is also used to calculate the upper limit of renewable energy penetration. ; 2) Calculate the renewable energy penetration rate at each moment in the 8760 balance: penetration rate = renewable energy output / total load (including internal load and external load). Since energy storage stations can be either power sources or loads, the location of the energy storage station needs to be considered. After considering the energy storage station, the formula for renewable energy penetration is: , , (4) Where K(t)% is the new energy penetration rate at time t, The output of the energy storage power station at time t, Output of new energy station (photovoltaic + wind power) at time t, is the total power output at time t; K1%, K2%, ...K t %…K 8760 %Find the value that is equal to or greater than any value in the sample series The value of new energy output P k (t), the formula is: (5) Where, To stabilize the upper limit of new energy penetration rate in the system, is equal to or greater than any The new energy output of value, is the total load demand at time t (including internal load and external load), The output of the energy storage power station at time t, The value is the new energy output at time t.

[0009] Furthermore, in step 3, the upper limit of the new energy penetration rate is used as a constraint to correct the 8760 hours of new energy curtailment. The specific steps are as follows: (6) Where, is the revised new energy curtailment rate, Q Abandoned electricity is the amount of new energy wasted throughout the year, P k (t) is equal to or greater than any The sum of the new energy output of .

[0010] Furthermore, in step 4, the new energy consumption rate indicator is used as a constraint to adjust the scale of new energy in the power supply boundary and derive the new energy carrying capacity. The specific steps are as follows: if = expected value, then the scale of new energy installed capacity in the power boundary is the new energy carrying capacity in the study area; if > expected value, then appropriately reduce the scale of new energy installed capacity in the power boundary and re-simulate the calculation until = expected value, the installed capacity of new energy in the adjusted power boundary is the new energy carrying capacity in the study area; if < expected value, then appropriately increase the scale of new energy installed capacity in the power boundary and re-simulate the calculation until = expected value, and the installed capacity of new energy in the adjusted power boundary is the new energy carrying capacity in the study area.

[0011] It should be noted that the above-mentioned simulation software HUST-GTDS is a new type of power system source-grid-load-storage coordinated operation simulation software developed by Huazhong University of Science and Technology, which is often used for calculating power and electricity balance, etc.; BPA power system simulation software is a power system analysis software tool invented by the China Electric Power Research Institute, which is often used for power system flow stability calculations.

[0012] Beneficial effects of the present invention: The present invention realizes accurate calculation of the carrying capacity of new energy by integrating the frequency and voltage stability calculations of the power system and taking the system peak-shaving capability and the penetration rate of new energy as key constraints. This innovative method effectively solves the problems of low utilization rate of new energy and frequent power abandonment caused by deviations in traditional measurement methods, provides a solid scientific basis for the planning and layout of new energy for new power systems, strongly supports the construction process of new power systems, and accelerates the efficient utilization and sustainable development of new energy. In addition, this method also significantly optimizes the operating cost of the power system, effectively reduces the cost of standby capacity and the cost of grid upgrades, while enhancing the overall reliability and stability of the power system, and providing a strong guarantee for the long-term stable operation of the power system. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0013] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a new energy carrying capacity calculation method of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0014] In order to make the technical problems and technical solutions solved by the present invention more clearly understood, the present invention is further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention and are not intended to limit the present invention.

[0015] This implementation provides a new energy carrying capacity calculation method based on the dual constraints of system peak regulation and new energy penetration rate. The basic data during the implementation process are shown in Table 1-3: Table 1: Electricity balance results for a certain system in the year 2030 (average water year, 8760 hours) (Unit: 10,000 kW, 10,000 kWh)

[0016] Table 2: Average annual electricity consumption balance for a system in 2030 (unit: 10,000 kW, 100 million kWh)

[0017] Table 3: Calculation results of the penetration rate of a certain system in 2030, a normal water year, 8760 hours (unit: 10,000 kW, 10,000 kWh)

[0018] A method for calculating the new energy carrying capacity based on the dual constraints of system peak regulation and new energy penetration rate, the specific implementation of which includes the following steps: Step 1: Define the boundaries of power sources and loads within the study area, conduct 8760-hour power balance calculations, and calculate the amount of renewable energy curtailment. The specific steps are as follows: 1) Determine the boundaries of power sources and loads (including internal loads and external loads) within the study area, and use the simulation software HUST to determine the values based on the regional power output characteristics and load characteristics. - GTDS, etc., simulate 8760 hours of power balance and electricity balance calculation: The formula for calculating the power balance for 8760 hours is: (1) According to Table 1: P Main power supply 1 = 2707.3 + 1398.7 + 46.1 + 1045.8 = 5197.9 (10,000 kilowatts) (2) According to Table 2: P abandoned power 1=1599-1534=65 (100 million kWh) 2) Calculate the new energy curtailment rate: Calculate the new energy curtailment rate based on the power balance calculation table. The formula is: (3) According to Table 2:

[0019] Step 2: Carry out system frequency stability calculations for the study area and calculate the upper limit of renewable energy penetration. The specific steps are as follows: 1) Carry out system frequency stability calculation in the study area: Use BPA power system simulation software to build different new energy penetration scenario data, calculate single fault disturbance, and measure the second-level safety and stability of the new energy scale that stabilizes the system frequency and does not trigger the third line of defense after the fault stabilization control is correctly operated.

[0020] 2) Calculate the renewable energy penetration rate at each moment in the 8760 balance: penetration rate = renewable energy output / total load (internal load + external load). Since energy storage stations can be either power sources or loads, the location of the energy storage station needs to be considered. After considering the energy storage station, the formula for renewable energy penetration is: , , (4) According to Table 1:

[0021]

[0022] K1%, K2%, ...K t %…K 8760 %Find the value that is equal to or greater than any value in the sample series The value of new energy output P K (t), the formula is: (5) Research area:

[0023] According to Table 1: P K1 = (5197.9 - 46.1) × 75% - 1398.7 = 2465 (10,000 kilowatts) P K16 = (6180.4 + 123.2) × 75% - 4936.1 = -208 (10,000 kilowatts) Step 3: Using the upper limit of new energy penetration as a constraint, correct the 8760 hours of new energy curtailment. The specific steps are as follows: (6) According to Table 2 and Table 3:

[0024] Step 4: Using the new energy consumption rate as a constraint, adjust the scale of new energy in the power supply boundary and derive the new energy carrying capacity. The specific steps are as follows: if = expected value, then the scale of new energy installed capacity in the power boundary is the new energy carrying capacity in the study area; if > expected value, then appropriately reduce the scale of new energy installed capacity in the power boundary and re-simulate the calculation until = expected value, the installed capacity of new energy in the adjusted power boundary is the new energy carrying capacity in the study area; if < expected value, then appropriately increase the scale of new energy installed capacity in the power boundary and re-simulate the calculation until = expected value, and the installed capacity of new energy in the adjusted power boundary is the new energy carrying capacity in the study area.

[0025] In this embodiment The expected value of the power abandonment rate is taken as 10%, that is, Expected value of power abandonment rate% = 10%.

[0026] Therefore, 7% < 10%, the above embodiment should appropriately increase the scale of new energy installed capacity in the power boundary. Specifically, the photovoltaic installed capacity is increased from 70.58 million kilowatts to 78.5 million kilowatts, and then the simulation is recalculated. The calculation results are shown in Table 4-6: Table 4: Electricity balance results for a certain system in the year 2030 (unit: 10,000 kW, 10,000 kWh) (Increase the scale of new energy installed capacity within the power supply boundary)

[0027] Table 5: Average annual electricity consumption balance for a system in 2030 (unit: 10,000 kW, 100 million kWh) (Increase the scale of new energy installed capacity within the power supply boundary)

[0028] Table 6: Calculation results of the penetration rate of a certain system in 2030, a normal water year, 8760 hours (unit: 10,000 kW, 10,000 kWh) (Increase the scale of new energy installed capacity within the power supply boundary)

[0029] According to Table 5: Q New energy abandoned electricity = 1710-1612 = 98 (TWH) According to Table 5:

[0030] The upper limit of new energy penetration rate To constrain the amount of wasted electricity from renewable energy sources, the following 8760 hours of wasted electricity is corrected:

[0031] Corrected = 10% of the expected value. Therefore, it can be determined that the "photovoltaic installed capacity of 78.5 million kilowatts" is the new energy carrying capacity in the study area.

[0032] The present invention is described in detail above through specific and preferred embodiments, but those skilled in the art should understand that the present invention is not limited to the embodiments described above. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, etc. made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for calculating new energy carrying capacity, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Step 1: Define the boundaries of power sources and loads within the study area, conduct 8760-hour power balance calculations, and calculate the amount of renewable energy curtailment; Step 2: Conduct system frequency stability calculations for the study area and calculate the upper limit of renewable energy penetration; Step 3: Using the upper limit of renewable energy penetration as a constraint, correct the 8,760 hours of renewable energy curtailment. Step 4: Using the new energy consumption rate indicator as a constraint, adjust the scale of new energy in the power supply boundary and derive the new energy carrying capacity.

2. A new energy carrying capacity calculation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: Carry out the 8760-hour power balance calculation described in step 1 and count the amount of abandoned renewable energy. The specific steps are as follows: 1) Determine the power supply and load boundaries in the study area, and select values based on the regional power output characteristics and load characteristics using the simulation software HUST - GTDS, simulates 8760 hours of power balance and electricity balance calculation; The formula for calculating the power balance for 8760 hours is: （1） （2） Where, is the total power output at time t, is the hydropower output at time t, is the thermal power output at time t, The output of the energy storage power station at time t, Contribute to new energy at time t; The power abandoned by renewable energy at time t; The electricity that can be generated by renewable energy at time t; is the available electricity from renewable energy at time t; 2) Calculate the new energy curtailment rate: Calculate the new energy curtailment rate based on the power balance calculation table. The formula is: （3） Where Q is the new energy curtailment rate for the whole year, The amount of abandoned electricity from new energy sources throughout the year, .

3. A new energy carrying capacity calculation method according to claim 2, characterized in that: Carry out system frequency stability calculations in the study area described in step 2 and calculate the upper limit of renewable energy penetration. The specific steps are as follows: 1) Conduct system frequency stability calculations in the study area: Use BPA power system simulation software to build scenario data for different renewable energy penetration rates, calculate single fault disturbances, and the second-level safety and stability involves the system frequency being stable after the fault stabilization control is correctly operated and not triggering the third line of defense. The scale of renewable energy is also used to calculate the upper limit of renewable energy penetration. ; 2) Calculate the renewable energy penetration rate at each moment in the 8760 balance: penetration rate = renewable energy output / total load. Since energy storage stations can be either power sources or loads, the location of the energy storage station needs to be considered. After considering the energy storage station, the formula for renewable energy penetration rate is: ， ， （4） Where K(t)% is the new energy penetration rate at time t, The output of the energy storage power station at time t, Output of new energy station (photovoltaic + wind power) at time t, is the total power output at time t; K1%, K2%, ...K t %…K 8760 %Find the value that is equal to or greater than any value in the sample series The value of new energy output P k (t), the formula is: （5） Where, To stabilize the upper limit of new energy penetration rate of the system, P k (t) is equal to or greater than any The new energy output of value, is the total load demand at time t, The output of the energy storage power station at time t, The value is the new energy output at time t.

4. A new energy carrying capacity calculation method according to claim 3, characterized in that: In step 3, the upper limit of new energy penetration is used as a constraint to correct the 8760 hours of new energy curtailment. The specific steps are as follows: （6） Where, is the revised new energy curtailment rate, Q Abandoned electricity is the amount of new energy wasted throughout the year, P k (t) is equal to or greater than any The sum of the new energy output of .

5. A new energy carrying capacity calculation method according to claim 4, characterized in that: In step 4, the new energy consumption rate indicator is used as a constraint to adjust the scale of new energy in the power supply boundary and derive the new energy carrying capacity. The specific steps are as follows: if = expected value, then the scale of new energy installed capacity in the power boundary is the new energy carrying capacity in the study area; if > expected value, then appropriately reduce the scale of new energy installed capacity in the power boundary and re-simulate the calculation until = expected value, the installed capacity of new energy in the adjusted power boundary is the new energy carrying capacity in the study area; if < expected value, then appropriately increase the scale of new energy installed capacity in the power boundary and re-simulate the calculation until = expected value, and the installed capacity of new energy in the adjusted power boundary is the new energy carrying capacity in the study area.

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