Scale prediction method and device, electronic equipment and readable storage medium

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of new energy power system planning and investment decision making, and provides a scale prediction method and device, electronic equipment and a readable storage medium, and the method comprises the steps: determining the power abandoning ratio of an energy source of each candidate scale; determining an energy source of a reference scale from the energy sources of the candidate scales according to the power abandoning ratio of the energy sources of the candidate scales; determining the additional value of the energy source of each candidate scale according to the energy source of the reference scale; and according to the respective additional value of the energy source of each candidate scale, an energy source of a target scale is determined from the energy sources of each candidate scale, and the energy source of the target scale is used for providing electric energy for preset load equipment. According to the method provided by the invention, during new energy power system planning and investment decision making, the corresponding energy source of the optimal scale can be rapidly determined according to the electric energy demand of the load equipment, the input-output ratio of the source-network-load storage system is improved, and the decision making accuracy is improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The embodiments of the present application relate to the technical field of new energy power system planning and investment decision-making, and in particular to a scale prediction method, device, electronic device and readable storage medium. Background Art

[0002] Various new energy sources such as wind energy, hydropower, solar energy, geothermal energy, and ocean energy are currently being increasingly used in actual production processes due to their renewable nature and low-carbon or even zero-carbon advantages. However, new energy sources are greatly affected by weather and the environment, resulting in intermittent output of production capacity.

[0003] The existing source-grid-load-storage system is a collaboratively optimized energy system that integrates new energy, power grids, loads, and energy storage. It can use energy storage to balance the fluctuations in new energy production capacity, thereby ensuring the stable operation of load equipment.

[0004] However, how to determine the appropriate scale of new energy based on load equipment so that the source-grid-load-storage system can achieve the maximum input-output ratio is still a technical problem that needs to be solved. Summary of the Invention

[0005] The embodiments of the present application provide a scale prediction method, device, electronic device and readable storage medium, which can match the appropriate new energy scale based on the power demand of load equipment when planning and making investment decisions for new energy power systems, thereby maximizing the input-output ratio of the source-grid-load-storage system.

[0006] In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a scale prediction method, comprising:

[0007] Determining a power abandonment ratio of each candidate scale energy source, where the power abandonment ratio indicates a ratio of wasted electricity in the theoretical power generation of the candidate scale energy source;

[0008] Determine a reference scale energy source from the candidate scale energy sources based on the proportion of power curtailment of the candidate scale energy sources;

[0009] Determining, based on the energy source of the reference scale, an additional value for each energy source of the candidate scale, wherein the additional value indicates the value of converting the energy source of the reference scale into the energy source of the candidate scale;

[0010] According to the additional value of each energy source of each candidate scale, an energy source of a target scale is determined from the energy sources of each candidate scale, and the energy source of the target scale is used to provide electric energy for a preset load device.

[0011] In some embodiments, determining the proportion of power curtailment of energy sources of each candidate size includes:

[0012] Obtaining theoretical power generation of an energy source of a reference scale, which is one of the energy sources of each candidate scale, and obtaining the amount of power consumed by the load device in the theoretical power generation;

[0013] The proportion of power abandonment of energy sources of each candidate scale is predicted based on the theoretical power generation of the energy source of the benchmark scale and the amount of power consumed by load equipment in the theoretical power generation.

[0014] In some embodiments, obtaining the amount of power consumed by the load device in the theoretical power generation includes:

[0015] Obtaining theoretical power generation of the energy source of the benchmark scale in each time interval within a preset time period;

[0016] For each time interval, determining the amount of electricity consumed by the load device in the theoretical power generation during the time interval based on the theoretical power generation of the energy source of the benchmark size during the time interval and the power demand of the load device during the time interval;

[0017] The amount of electricity consumed by the load equipment in the theoretical power generation of the energy source of the reference size for a preset time period is determined based on the amount of electricity consumed by the load equipment in the theoretical power generation in each time interval.

[0018] In some embodiments, determining the additional value of each candidate energy source based on the reference energy source includes:

[0019] For each candidate-scale energy source, determining an investment increase based on the candidate-scale energy source and the reference-scale energy source, wherein the investment increase indicates the investment required to transform the reference-scale energy source into the candidate-scale energy source;

[0020] The additional value of the energy source of the candidate scale is determined based on the investment increase and the deductible electricity fee of the energy source of the candidate scale. The deductible electricity fee is used to indicate: the electricity fee offset by the energy source of the candidate scale providing electricity to the load equipment within a preset number of years.

[0021] In some embodiments, before determining the additional value of the energy source of the candidate scale based on the investment increase and the deductible electricity fee of the energy source of the candidate scale, the method further includes:

[0022] For each energy source of a candidate scale, determining an energy increment of the energy source of the candidate scale according to the amount of electricity consumed by the load device in the energy source of the candidate scale and the amount of electricity consumed by the load device in the energy source of the reference scale;

[0023] The deductible electricity fee of the energy source of the candidate scale is determined according to the electricity quantity increment of the energy source of the candidate scale.

[0024] In some embodiments, determining the deductible electricity fee of each energy source of the candidate scale according to the electricity increment of the energy source of the candidate scale includes:

[0025] Obtaining a preset number of years, where the preset number of years indicates the number of years that the energy source of the candidate size provides electric energy to a preset load device;

[0026] Determine, based on the energy increment and the deduction unit price of the energy source of the candidate scale, the electricity cost offset by the energy source of the candidate scale providing electricity to the load equipment for one year, wherein the deduction unit price indicates the offset electricity cost corresponding to the unit amount of electricity in the energy increment;

[0027] The deductible electricity charges of the energy sources of the candidate sizes are determined according to the electricity charges offset by the energy sources of the candidate sizes providing electricity to the load equipment for one year and the preset number of years.

[0028] In some embodiments, for each energy source of a candidate scale, determining the investment increase according to the energy source of the candidate scale and the energy source of the reference scale includes:

[0029] For each candidate-scale energy source, determining an installed capacity increment, where the installed capacity increment indicates an increase in power after the reference-scale energy source is transformed into the candidate-scale energy source;

[0030] The investment increase is determined based on the installed capacity increase.

[0031] In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a scale prediction device, comprising:

[0032] an acquisition module, configured to acquire a power abandonment ratio of each candidate scale energy source, wherein the power abandonment ratio indicates a ratio of wasted electricity in a theoretical power generation of the candidate scale energy source;

[0033] a processing module configured to determine a reference-scale energy source from the energy sources of the candidate scales based on a percentage of power curtailment of the energy sources of the candidate scales, and to determine an additional value for each of the energy sources of the candidate scales based on the energy sources of the reference scales, the additional value being used to indicate the value of converting the energy sources of the reference scales into the energy sources of the candidate scales;

[0034] The processing module is further configured to determine a target-scale energy source from the energy sources of the candidate scales according to the respective additional values of the energy sources of the candidate scales, wherein the target-scale energy source is used to provide electric energy for a preset load device;

[0035] Output module, used to output energy source of target scale.

[0036] In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides an electronic device comprising: a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored on the memory and runnable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the computer program, the new energy implements the method described in the first aspect or various possible implementation methods of the first aspect.

[0037] In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium, in which computer instructions are stored. When the computer instructions are executed by a processor, they are used to implement the method described in the first aspect or various possible implementation methods of the first aspect.

[0038] In a fifth aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a computer program product comprising a computing program, which, when executed by a processor, implements the method described in the first aspect or various possible implementations of the first aspect.

[0039] The scale prediction method, device, electronic device and readable storage medium provided in the embodiment of the present application include determining the proportion of abandoned power of energy sources of each candidate scale; determining a reference scale energy source from the energy sources of each candidate scale based on the abandoned power proportion of energy sources of each candidate scale; determining the additional value of each energy source of each candidate scale based on the energy source of the reference scale; determining a target scale energy source from the energy sources of each candidate scale based on the additional value of each energy source of each candidate scale, the target scale energy source being used to provide electric energy for a preset load device. The method of the present application can quickly determine the corresponding optimal scale energy source based on the electric energy demand of the load device when planning and making investment decisions on a new energy power system, thereby improving the input-output ratio of the source-grid-load-storage system, and can also increase the influencing factors of input and output according to the requirements of different scenarios to improve the accuracy of decision-making. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0040] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the description of the embodiments. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present application. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without any creative work.

[0041] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of the scale prediction method provided in the embodiment of the present application;

[0042] Figure 2 A flowchart of a method for determining additional value provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0043] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the prediction method flow chart provided in the embodiment of the present application;

[0044] Figure 4 A schematic diagram of the structure of a scale prediction device provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0045] Figure 5 A schematic diagram of the hardware structure of an electronic device provided in an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0046] The embodiments of the present application are described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0047] It should be clear that the embodiments described are only part of the embodiments of this application, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in this application, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative work are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0048] In order to enable those skilled in the art to better understand the solutions of the present invention, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the embodiments described are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative efforts should fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0049] Due to the intermittent output of new energy, the output power fluctuates greatly. When the power output by new energy is applied to industrial production loads, such as high-energy load equipment such as silicon manganese blast furnaces, if more new energy equipment is configured, the utilization rate of some new energy equipment will be reduced, increasing production costs; and if fewer new energy equipment is configured, the load equipment will not be able to meet production needs. In order to balance the fluctuations in the production capacity of new energy, a source-grid-load-storage system is usually set up. When the number of load equipment is determined, its load demand is also determined. Then, energy storage is used to balance the fluctuations in the production capacity of new energy, thereby ensuring the stable operation of the load equipment. However, how to determine the scale of new energy equipment in the source-grid-load-storage system is still a technical problem that needs to be solved.

[0050] Based on this, the embodiments of the present application provide a method, device, electronic device and readable storage medium for determining the scale prediction of new energy. When planning and making investment decisions for new energy power systems, new energy is provided to load equipment based on production needs. The scale of the new energy is matched with the power demand of the load equipment, thereby achieving the purpose of improving the input-output ratio of new energy projects.

[0051] The specific application scenarios of this application are as follows:

[0052] In the context of source-grid-load-storage, when configuring new energy equipment for load devices, such as wind farms, it is necessary to consider the scale of the wind farm to ensure the highest input-output ratio of the entire source-grid-load-storage system or to achieve the economic indicators required by users. Therefore, it is necessary to make predictions based on the currently configured load equipment to determine the scale of the wind farm.

[0053] The executing entity of the embodiment of the present application is an electronic device, such as a server, desktop computer, laptop computer, etc. The electronic device obtains the power demand of the load device, the theoretical power generation of the base station-scale energy source, etc., and then predicts a target-scale energy source for the load device. The power supply capacity of the target-scale energy source matches the power demand of the load device.

[0054] In the embodiments of this application, energy sources primarily refer to renewable energy sources, including but not limited to wind farms, photovoltaic power plants, and tidal power plants. Load equipment refers to high-energy-consuming equipment, including but not limited to data centers, submerged arc furnaces, refrigeration equipment, pumps, boilers, and the like. Submerged arc furnaces include but are not limited to manganese silicon submerged arc furnaces and ferrosilicon submerged arc furnaces.

[0055] The following specific embodiments describe in detail the technical solution of the present application and how the technical solution of the present application solves the above-mentioned technical problems. The following specific embodiments can be combined with each other, and the same or similar concepts or processes may not be repeated in some embodiments. The embodiments of the present application will be described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0056] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of the scale prediction method provided in the embodiment of this application. Figure 1 As shown, the method includes:

[0057] S101. Determine a power abandonment ratio of an energy source of each candidate scale, where the power abandonment ratio indicates a ratio of wasted electricity in a theoretical power generation of the energy source of the candidate scale.

[0058] In the embodiments of the present application, the energy sources of candidate scales are some theoretical energy sources, which may be real energy sources or may not exist. Scale refers to the amount of power that the energy source can provide. For example, the energy source of the candidate scale is a wind farm, and the candidate scales are, for example, 181.8 MW, 99.99 MW, etc., and the corresponding number of wind turbines is 30 and 17, respectively. For another example, the energy source of the candidate scale is a photovoltaic power station, and the candidate scales are, for example, 109 MW, 170 MW, etc., assuming that the power of a single photovoltaic panel is 500 watts, the corresponding number of photovoltaic panels is 200,000 and 350,000, respectively.

[0059] Specifically, the electronic device obtains the power abandonment ratio of the candidate energy source. The power abandonment ratio can be directly obtained from other terminal devices or cloud devices that are communicatively connected to the electronic device, or it can be obtained from other terminal devices or cloud devices that are communicatively connected to the electronic device. The theoretical power generation of each candidate energy source and the amount of power wasted in the theoretical power generation are obtained from other terminal devices or cloud devices that are communicatively connected to the electronic device. Then, the power abandonment ratio of the candidate energy source is determined based on the ratio of the amount of power wasted in the theoretical power generation to the theoretical power generation. The amount of power wasted in the theoretical power generation refers to the amount of power that cannot be consumed by the preset load equipment.

[0060] S102: Determine an energy source of a reference scale from the energy sources of the candidate scales according to the proportion of abandoned power of the energy sources of the candidate scales.

[0061] After determining the curtailment rate of each candidate energy source scale, the electronic device selects multiple candidate energy sources with zero curtailment rates from the candidate energy sources. The electronic device then determines the largest energy source among these candidate energy sources with zero curtailment rates as the reference energy source scale. Therefore, the reference energy source scale is one of the candidate energy sources scales. For example, if the candidate energy sources scales with zero curtailment rates are 50MW, 40MW, and 10MW, respectively, the 50MW energy source scale is used as the reference energy source scale.

[0062] S103 . Determine the additional value of each candidate-scale energy source based on the reference-scale energy source. The additional value indicates the value of converting the reference-scale energy source into the candidate-scale energy source.

[0063] Since the reference-scale energy source is the largest energy source that does not generate wasted electricity, when the candidate-scale energy source is larger than the reference-scale energy source, the load equipment will reduce the possibility of using energy stored in the source-grid-load-storage system, thereby saving energy loss in the storage part. The saved energy can provide additional value to users. In addition, in addition to completing the supply of load equipment, the excess energy of the candidate-scale new energy may also be stored so that users can use it in other production to generate other profits, which can also provide additional value to users. Therefore, the additional value of each candidate-scale energy source can be determined by the reference-scale energy source.

[0064] It should be understood that the additional value is the sum of the income and payments corresponding to the electricity consumed by the preset load equipment, and the change in the size of the electricity is not the same as the change in the size of the income and the change in the size of the expenditure. Therefore, the sum of the income and payment can be positive income or negative expenditure. For example, the electricity consumed by the preset load equipment can be used in other production to generate production income, the electricity consumed by the preset load equipment can generate subsidy income based on the new energy electricity subsidy, and the electricity consumed by the preset load equipment corresponds to the new energy equipment to generate equipment expenditure. The equipment expenditure can include multiple expenditures such as equipment configuration costs and equipment losses. Therefore, the additional value is the sum of production income, subsidy income and equipment expenditure.

[0065] S104 . Determine an energy source of a target scale from the energy sources of the candidate scales according to the additional value of each energy source of the candidate scales. The energy source of the target scale is used to provide electric energy for a preset load device.

[0066] After determining the additional value of each energy source of each candidate scale, the electronic device determines the maximum additional value from the additional value of each energy source of each candidate scale, and outputs the energy source of the candidate scale corresponding to the maximum additional value as the energy source of the target scale, so that the user can use the energy source of the target scale to provide electricity to the preset load equipment, so as to guide the user to quickly determine the number of new energy equipment with the greatest benefit based on the load equipment.

[0067] By adopting the method of this embodiment, electronic equipment can use the known proportion of abandoned power of energy sources of candidate scales to determine the energy sources of reference scale, and then determine the additional value of energy sources of various scales based on the energy sources of the reference scale. Then, when planning and making investment decisions on new energy power systems, the additional value can be used to determine the optimal scale that can improve the input-output ratio of new energy projects, thereby improving the reliability of decisions.

[0068] Based on the above embodiment, this embodiment further describes how to determine the power abandonment ratio of energy sources of each candidate scale.

[0069] Optionally, in the above embodiment, when the electronic device determines the percentage of power curtailment for each candidate energy scale, the electronic device first obtains the theoretical power generation of an energy source of a base scale, and obtains the amount of power consumed by the load device from the theoretical power generation. The base scale energy source is one of the energy sources of the candidate scales. The electronic device then predicts the percentage of power curtailment for each candidate energy scale based on the theoretical power generation of the base scale energy source and the amount of power consumed by the load device from the theoretical power generation.

[0070] For example, assume there are 15 candidate energy sources, and the base-scale energy source is any one of the 15 candidate energy sources; alternatively, the 10th energy source among the 15 candidate energy sources is predefined as the base-scale energy source; or alternatively, the base-scale energy source is an energy source independent of the 15 candidate energy sources. The theoretical power generation of the base-scale energy source and the amount of power consumed by the load devices as well as the theoretical power generation of the remaining candidate energy sources and the amount of power consumed by the load devices as a result of the theoretical power generation are unknown. Electronic devices can flexibly obtain the theoretical power generation of the base-scale energy source and the amount of power consumed by the load devices as a result of the theoretical power generation. For example, the electronic device can provide an interface for the user to input the theoretical power generation of the base-scale energy source and the amount of power consumed by the load devices as a result of the theoretical power generation; another example is the electronic device obtaining the information from the cloud; another example is the electronic device obtaining the theoretical power generation of the base-scale energy source and the amount of power consumed by the load devices as a result of the theoretical power generation from a smart meter.

[0071] The electronic device obtains the theoretical power generation of the energy source of the benchmark scale and the amount of power consumed by the load devices. Based on the theoretical power generation of the energy source of the benchmark scale and the amount of power consumed by the load devices, it predicts the proportion of power curtailment for each candidate scale energy source. For example, each candidate scale energy source has its own coefficient. The electronic device multiplies the theoretical power generation of the energy source of the benchmark scale by the coefficient to determine the theoretical power generation of the energy source of the corresponding candidate scale.

[0072] Using this solution, electronic equipment can quickly and accurately predict the proportion of power curtailment at each candidate energy source based on the theoretical power generation of the known, benchmark-scale energy source and the amount of power consumed by the load equipment within that theoretical power generation.

[0073] In some embodiments, when an electronic device obtains the amount of power consumed by a load device within the theoretical power generation, the electronic device first obtains the theoretical power generation of the energy source of the benchmark scale for each time interval within a preset duration. Thereafter, for each time interval, the electronic device determines the amount of power consumed by the load device within the theoretical power generation for that time interval based on the theoretical power generation of the energy source of the benchmark scale in that time interval and the power demand of the load device within that time interval. Then, based on the amount of power consumed by the load device within the theoretical power generation for each time interval, the electronic device determines the amount of power consumed by the load device within the theoretical power generation of the energy source of the benchmark scale for the preset duration.

[0074] The preset duration may be a period of one month, half a year, or one year, and the time interval may be a unit time period shorter than the preset duration, such as one minute, ten minutes, thirty minutes, or one hour.

[0075] For example, assuming a preset duration of one year and a ten-minute time interval, the electronic device obtains the theoretical power generation of a benchmark-scale energy source every ten minutes over the course of the year from the smart meter. Due to the instability of new energy devices as energy sources, the theoretical power generation may not be fully consumed by the load device. Therefore, the actual power consumption of the load device in each ten-minute period can be determined by comparing the power demand of the load device with the theoretical power generation of the benchmark-scale energy source every ten minutes over the course of the year.

[0076] Specifically, when the amount of electricity required by the energy source for a load device every ten minutes is greater than the theoretical power generation of the energy source of the benchmark scale, the actual amount of electricity used is the theoretical power generation of the energy source of the benchmark scale, and the theoretical power generation every ten minutes is counted as the amount of electricity consumed by the load device at the current time point. When the amount of electricity required by the energy source for a load device every ten minutes is not greater than the theoretical power generation of the energy source of the benchmark scale, the actual amount of electricity used is the amount of electricity required by the energy source for the load device every ten minutes, and the amount of electricity required by the energy source every ten minutes is counted as the amount of electricity consumed by the load device at the current time point. For example, if the load device's power demand is 6000kW every ten minutes, and the power generated by the new energy device every ten minutes in a certain hour is 1000kW, 5000kW, 6000kW, 6500kW, 3000kW, and 7000kW respectively, then the actual energy consumed by the load device in that hour is 1000kW, 5000kW, 6000kW, 6000kW, 3000kW, and 6000kW respectively.

[0077] After determining the actual amount of electricity consumed by the load equipment every ten minutes corresponding to the benchmark-scale energy source, the actual amount of electricity consumed by the load equipment every ten minutes of the benchmark-scale energy source is accumulated until the accumulated time reaches one year, and the amount of electricity consumed by the load equipment in the theoretical power generation of the benchmark-scale energy source within the preset time of one year is obtained.

[0078] Optionally, after determining the actual amount of electricity consumed by the load equipment within ten minutes corresponding to the energy source of the benchmark scale, the actual amount of electricity consumed by the load equipment within ten minutes corresponding to the energy source of the candidate scale can also be determined based on the relationship between the benchmark scale and the candidate scale. The theoretical power generation within ten minutes corresponding to the energy source of the benchmark scale is different from the theoretical power generation within ten minutes corresponding to the energy source of the candidate scale. For example, the theoretical power generation within ten minutes corresponding to the energy source of the benchmark scale is multiplied by a coefficient to obtain the theoretical power generation within ten minutes corresponding to the energy source of the candidate scale. The actual amount of electricity consumed by the load equipment within ten minutes corresponding to the energy source of the candidate scale in one year is accumulated to obtain the total amount of electricity actually consumed by the load equipment corresponding to the energy source of each candidate scale in one year.

[0079] By adopting the solution of this embodiment, the electronic device divides the power consumed by the load device over a longer period of time into the actual power consumed in smaller time intervals and accumulates and counts them, thereby more accurately determining the actual power consumed by the load device in the theoretical power generation and improving the accuracy of the prediction scale.

[0080] Based on the above embodiment, this embodiment further describes how to determine the additional value of each energy source of each candidate scale.

[0081] Figure 2 This is a flow chart of the additional value determination method provided in the embodiment of the present application. Figure 2 As shown, the method includes:

[0082] S201. For each energy source of a candidate scale, determine an investment increase based on the energy source of the candidate scale and the energy source of the reference scale, where the investment increase indicates the investment size for converting the energy source of the reference scale into the energy source of the candidate scale.

[0083] Specifically, since the energy source of the reference scale is to meet the electricity consumption of the load equipment, when the energy source of the candidate scale is larger than the energy source of the reference scale, the difference between the energy source of the candidate scale and the energy source of the reference scale is the additional energy source required after the energy source of the reference scale is transformed into the energy source of the candidate scale. The generation of these additional energy sources requires a certain scale of new energy equipment. These new energy equipment will have investment expenditures, such as purchase costs. These investment expenditures are increased relative to the investment size of the energy source of the reference scale. Therefore, the additional energy sources can correspond to the determination of the investment increase.

[0084] S202. Determine the additional value of the energy source of the candidate scale based on the investment increase and the deductible electricity fee of the energy source of the candidate scale, where the deductible electricity fee is used to indicate the electricity fee offset by the energy source of the candidate scale providing electricity to the load equipment within a preset number of years.

[0085] Since the deduction of electricity charges is a positive monetary income, and the investment increase is a negative monetary expenditure, by adding up the monetary income and monetary expenditure corresponding to energy sources of the same scale, we can obtain the total monetary income or total monetary expenditure that the energy source of this scale can generate excluding the preset load equipment, and thus obtain the additional value of the energy source of the candidate scale relative to the energy source of the reference scale.

[0086] It should be understood that the additional value can be a positive number or a negative number. When the additional value is a positive number, it means that the energy source of the candidate scale can generate positive returns relative to the energy source of the reference scale. Conversely, when the additional value is a negative number, it means that the energy source of the candidate scale is at a loss relative to the energy source of the reference scale.

[0087] Optionally, in order to ensure the accuracy of the measurement results, other influencing factors may be added.

[0088] For example, the surplus electricity in the energy sources of each candidate scale can also be used to generate monetary benefits in other scenarios. New energy equipment also has monetary losses such as equipment loss and maintenance costs during use. These monetary benefits and monetary losses can be added to the additional value of the embodiment of this application to improve the accuracy of the additional value calculation. The calculation method is similar to that of the embodiment of this application, and they will not be listed one by one here.

[0089] By adopting the solution of this embodiment, the difference between the energy source of the candidate scale and the energy source of the reference scale can be used to determine the investment increase and electricity fee deduction corresponding to the difference. Then, based on the difference between the investment increase and the electricity fee deduction, the additional value of the energy source of the candidate scale can be quickly determined, which is conducive to improving the accuracy of investment forecasts.

[0090] In the above embodiment, the deductible electricity fee is used to indicate the electricity fee that is offset due to the energy source of the candidate scale providing electricity to the load equipment within a preset period of time. That is, the size of the deductible electricity fee is related to the actual amount of electricity used by the load equipment in the energy source of the candidate scale. Therefore, before determining the additional value, the size of the deductible electricity fee also needs to be determined.

[0091] For each candidate scale energy source, first, the electronic device determines the incremental power of the candidate scale energy source based on the power consumed by the load equipment in the candidate scale energy source and the power consumed by the load equipment in the reference scale energy source; then, based on the incremental power of the candidate scale energy source, the electronic device determines the deductible electricity fee of the candidate scale energy source.

[0092] Illustratively, the difference between the amount of electricity consumed by the load equipment in the energy source of the candidate scale and the amount of electricity consumed by the load equipment in the energy source of the reference scale is the unused incremental electricity of the energy source of the candidate scale relative to the energy source of the reference scale. If this incremental electricity is utilized, it can generate certain benefits, and this incremental electricity may also generate additional subsidy benefits because it complies with policy subsidies for new energy. The size of these benefits is positively correlated with the size of the incremental electricity. Therefore, the deductible electricity charge of the energy source of the candidate scale can be determined based on the product and sum of the incremental electricity of the energy source of the candidate scale and the amount of income generated per unit electricity.

[0093] In the solution of this embodiment, the electronic device obtains the difference in consumed electricity based on the acquired electricity consumed by the load equipment in the energy sources of each candidate scale and the electricity consumed by the load equipment in the energy sources of the reference scale, and then determines the deductible electricity fee corresponding to the electricity difference based on the known unit price of electricity. The calculation method is simple and effective, which can reduce the computational complexity of the prediction method and help improve the prediction efficiency and prediction accuracy of the overall scale prediction method.

[0094] The deductible electricity fee in the above embodiment can be a deductible electricity fee within any time period. For example, when the energy increment of the candidate scale energy source is the sum of the energy increments for one month, the deductible electricity fee is a monthly deductible electricity fee. When the energy increment of the candidate scale energy source is the sum of the energy increments for one year, the deductible electricity fee is an annual deductible electricity fee. It is known to those skilled in the art that the amount of money will produce a certain value change over time. The actual value of the same amount of money after different years is different, but there is a certain pattern between the amount of money and the years, which can be expressed by a discount formula for different years. Therefore, when the electronic device knows the preset years of use of the new energy device and the deductible electricity fee generated by the new energy device in the current year, it can determine the future value corresponding to the deductible electricity fee in the current year after the preset years are reached based on the discount formula. Among them, the preset years are determined by the user based on the expected years of use of the new energy device corresponding to the current scale energy source, which can be 5 years, 10 years, 15 years, 20 years, etc.

[0095] Specifically, when determining the deductible electricity bill, the electronic device first obtains a preset number of years, which is used to indicate the number of years that the energy source of the candidate scale provides electricity to the preset load equipment. Then, based on the product of the electricity increment and the deduction unit price of the energy source of the candidate scale, the electricity bill offset by the energy source of the candidate scale providing electricity to the load equipment for one year is determined. The deduction unit price is used to indicate the offset electricity bill corresponding to the unit electricity in the electricity increment. Finally, the electricity bill offset by the energy source of the candidate scale providing electricity to the load equipment for one year and the preset number of years are substituted into the discount formula corresponding to the preset number of years to determine the deductible electricity bill of each energy source of the candidate scale.

[0096] For example, suppose a user purchases 63.63kW of new energy equipment for two load devices in 2025 and intends to maintain the current supply and demand relationship for 15 years. Since the 63.63kW of new energy equipment was purchased in 2025, its investment growth rate is calculated based on the cash value in 2025, and the deductible electricity charges generated within 15 years will change with the changes in the cash value each year. Therefore, it is necessary to convert the deductible electricity charges in the next 15 years into the cash value in 2025, so as to place the deductible electricity charges and the investment growth rate on the same cash value comparison basis, so as to more accurately calculate the additional value. Specifically, the annual electricity increase of the energy source of the 63.63kW new energy equipment in 2025 is calculated to be 9256238.6kW. Assuming that the annual deductible electricity price is 0.4 yuan per kilowatt-hour in 15 years, it can be calculated that the annual deductible electricity cost generated by the new energy equipment in 2025 is 3.7 million yuan. Based on the 15-year discount formula, it can be predicted that the total annual deductible electricity cost generated by new energy in 15 years will have a cash value of 38.43 million yuan in 2025.

[0097] By using the solution of this embodiment, all deductible electricity charges within the preset years are converted into deductible electricity charges corresponding to the cash value of the equipment in the year of purchase, fully considering the change in cash value, thereby improving the accuracy of investment forecasts and further improving the reliability of investment decisions.

[0098] In the process of determining the investment increase in the additional value determination method, the electronic equipment first determines the installed capacity increment for each candidate-scale energy source. The installed capacity increment is used to indicate the increase in power after the reference-scale energy source is transformed into the candidate-scale energy source. Then, the investment increase is determined based on the installed capacity increment.

[0099] Exemplarily, the electronic device determines the installed capacity increment based on the difference between the energy source of each candidate scale and the energy source of the reference scale, and then determines the investment increase based on the installed capacity increment and the unit price of the new energy equipment, where the unit price of the new energy equipment is determined based on the scale of the new energy equipment. When the scale of the new energy equipment is divided by power size, the installed capacity increment is the power increase of the new energy equipment, and the investment increase is the product of the power increase and the unit power price. When the scale of the new energy equipment is divided by the number of devices, the installed capacity increment is the number of new energy devices added, and the investment increase is the product of the number of added devices and the unit price of each device.

[0100] The solution of this embodiment uses the difference between the energy source of the candidate scale and the energy source of the reference scale and the product of the unit price corresponding to the difference to determine the investment increase, thereby quickly determining the equipment expenditure cost to obtain the investment increase, which is conducive to accurately determining the additional value and improving the accuracy of investment forecasts.

[0101] The following uses the scale of a wind farm composed of wind turbines as the object of new energy scale prediction in the embodiment of the present application to illustrate how the wind power generated by the wind turbines is applied to the scale prediction algorithm. Figure 3 This is a flow chart of the prediction method provided in the embodiment of the present application. Figure 3 As shown, the method includes:

[0102] S301. Set a benchmark.

[0103] Illustratively, in this embodiment, the electronic device needs to obtain a set benchmark in advance when making a prediction. The set benchmark includes a demand benchmark for the load device and a wind farm benchmark scale. The demand benchmark for the load device is based on a fixed power consumption demand corresponding to the operation of the load device, and the wind farm benchmark scale is the amount of power that can be generated by a wind turbine device of a preset scale.

[0104] S302. Simulate the scale of the wind farm.

[0105] Specifically, the wind farm benchmark in S301 is multiplied by different coefficients to obtain multiple different simulated wind farm scales. For example, when the wind farm benchmark is 90.90MW, the simulated wind farm scales are 181.8MW, 163.62MW, 81.81MW, 63.63MW, etc.

[0106] S303: Calculate wind power usage.

[0107] Optionally, the wind power usage includes theoretical wind power generation, wind power usage, and wind power curtailment ratio.

[0108] Specifically, the theoretical power generation of wind power is the total annual power generation corresponding to the simulated wind farm scale.

[0109] Wind power consumption refers to the total annual power consumption of the load equipment. The total annual power consumption is the sum of the power consumption every ten minutes throughout the year. For example, when the theoretical power generation of the wind farm scale every ten minutes exceeds the power demand of the load equipment every ten minutes, the actual power consumption is only the power demand of the load equipment every ten minutes. When the theoretical power generation of the wind farm scale every ten minutes is less than the power demand of the load equipment every ten minutes, the actual power consumption is the theoretical power generation of the wind farm scale every ten minutes.

[0110] The proportion of wind power curtailment is the ratio of the difference between the theoretical wind power generation and the wind power consumption to the theoretical wind power generation.

[0111] S304: Confirm the wind farm with zero wind abandonment.

[0112] Specifically, the electronic device determines a wind farm with zero wind power abandonment based on the wind power abandonment ratio calculated in S303.

[0113] Among them, the wind farm with zero wind curtailment is the maximum simulated wind farm scale with a wind power curtailment ratio of 0%.

[0114] For example, if it is determined that the maximum simulated wind farm scale with a wind power curtailment ratio of 0% is 54.54MW, when the simulated wind farm scale can be further subdivided, for example, the difference between adjacent simulated wind farm scales is 9.09MW, but the minimum increment of the wind farm scale can be 0.9MW, in order to further improve the confirmation accuracy of the wind farm with 0 wind curtailment, new simulated wind farm scales of 55.44MW, 56.34MW, 57.24MW, etc. can be further constructed based on 54.54MW, and then the corresponding wind power curtailment ratio is calculated based on the newly constructed simulated wind farm scale, and the maximum simulated wind farm scale with a wind power curtailment ratio of 0% is found, thereby improving the accuracy of determining the wind farm with 0 wind curtailment.

[0115] The simulated wind farm scale corresponding to the zero wind abandonment wind farm is determined as the reference scale.

[0116] S305. Calculate the increased revenue from wind power.

[0117] Specifically, the incremental revenue from wind power is the product of the incremental electricity generated by wind power and the unit price of electricity revenue. The incremental electricity generated by wind power is the difference between the electricity used at the simulated wind farm scale and the electricity used at the reference scale.

[0118] S306. Calculate the investment increase.

[0119] For example, the increase in investment is the product of the increase in wind power generation and the unit price of the scale increase.

[0120] S307. Compare benefits and costs.

[0121] When the benefit cost is not the maximum benefit cost, the process returns to S302 to recalculate the benefit cost corresponding to the next simulated wind farm scale until the maximum benefit cost is reached, and then the process ends.

[0122] Exemplarily, the revenue cost is the difference between the increased revenue from wind power and the increased investment.

[0123] The benefit and cost of different simulated wind farm sizes are compared, and the simulated wind farm size corresponding to the maximum benefit and cost is output as the optimal wind farm size corresponding to the set benchmark.

[0124] This embodiment uses electronic equipment to quickly execute the above algorithm steps, thereby quickly obtaining the optimal wind farm scale corresponding to the input set benchmark based on the set benchmark, which is convenient for guiding users to build a suitable wind farm scale.

[0125] The technical solution of the present application is further described below with reference to a specific embodiment.

[0126] Taking the load demand generated by two silicomanganese blast furnaces as load equipment and 15 wind turbines as a benchmark wind farm as an example, the economic efficiency of alloy production under different wind turbine scales was calculated. The load demand of the two silicomanganese blast furnaces was simulated at 6000kW at each time point. The total unit power corresponding to the benchmark wind farm of 15 wind turbines was 90.9MW. The wind output forecast curve at each time point of the wind farm with a unit power of 90.9MW was used as the wind farm benchmark output. Different coefficients were set at 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 1, ..., 1.9, and 2. The energy sources of the candidate scales were 45.45MW, 54.54MW, 63.63MW, 72.72MW, 81.81MW, 90.9MW, ..., 172.71MW, and 181.8MW, respectively.

[0127] Based on the load demand and the wind power generation time series data of the benchmark wind farm, the theoretical wind power generation, wind power usage, wind power abandonment ratio and other indicators of each wind farm are calculated, as shown in Table 1 below.

[0128] Table 1

[0129] coefficient Unit power / MW Theoretical power generation / kW Power consumption / kW Proportion of curtailed electricity 2 181.8 826065537 372256188 54.94％ 1.9 172.71 784762260 368923090 52.99％ 1.8 163.62 743458984 365331016 50.86％ 1.2 109.08 495639322 335171626 32.38％ 1.1 99.99 454336045.5 327925095 27.82％ 1 90.9 413032768.7 319601756.7 22.62％ 0.9 81.81 371729492 309759302 16.67％ 0.8 72.72 330426215 297669940 9.91％ 0.7 63.63 289122938 281857866 2.51％ 0.6 54.54 247819661 247819661 0％ 0.5 45.45 206516384 206516384 0％

[0130] The wind power generation time series data is the time series data of the amount of electricity generated every ten minutes and the time series data of the amount of electricity consumed every ten minutes.

[0131] The theoretical power generation is the total time series data of electricity generated every ten minutes throughout the year.

[0132] Wind power usage is the total time series data of electricity consumed every ten minutes throughout the year.

[0133] The time series data of the power consumed every ten minutes is determined based on the size of the time series data of the power generated every ten minutes and the time series data of the power required by the load device every ten minutes.

[0134] When the time series data of the amount of electricity generated every ten minutes is greater than or equal to the time series data of the amount of electricity required by the load device every ten minutes, the time series data of the amount of electricity required by the load device every ten minutes is used as the time series data of the amount of electricity consumed every ten minutes.

[0135] When the time series data of the amount of electricity generated every ten minutes is less than the time series data of the amount of electricity required by the load device every ten minutes, the time series data of the amount of electricity generated every ten minutes is used as the time series data of the amount of electricity consumed every ten minutes.

[0136] The proportion of abandoned electricity is the ratio of the difference between theoretical power generation and power consumption to theoretical power generation.

[0137] According to the data in Table 1 above, the unit power scale corresponding to the coefficient of 0.6 is determined as the energy source of the reference scale.

[0138] Since there is a 2.51% difference in the power abandonment ratio between 0.6 and 0.7, in order to improve the accuracy of determining the energy source of the reference scale, the coefficient value of 0.6-0.7 can be further subdivided into 0.61, 0.62, 0.63, ..., 0.69, and 0.7. Then, the unit power, theoretical power generation, power usage and power abandonment ratio are calculated accordingly. Finally, the maximum coefficient with a power abandonment ratio of 0% is 0.66. Therefore, the unit power of 59.994MW corresponding to 0.66 is used as the energy source of the reference scale.

[0139] Based on the energy source of the reference scale, the usage increment and installed capacity increment of wind power in each wind farm are calculated. Then, the deductible electricity charges and discounted electricity charges are determined based on the usage increment, and the fixed investment increase is determined based on the installed capacity increment, resulting in the data shown in Table 2 below.

[0140] Table 2

[0141]

[0142] The usage increment is the difference between the power usage corresponding to the energy source of each candidate scale and the power usage corresponding to the energy source of the reference scale.

[0143] The deductible electricity fee is the product of the usage increment and the preset deductible electricity fee unit price. For example, the preset deductible electricity fee unit price is 0.4 yuan per kilowatt-hour.

[0144] The 15-year discount and the 25-year discount can be calculated using the annuity present value formula:

[0145]

[0146] In the formula, PV is the current present value, unit: yuan; C is the annual electricity fee deduction, unit: yuan; r is the discount rate; n is the number of discount years.

[0147] Assuming the discount rate for both 15 and 25 years is 5%, then:

[0148] The 15-year discount is the cost obtained by deducting the electricity fee and the preset 15-year discount formula.

[0149] The 15-year discount formula is:

[0150]

[0151] The 25-year discount is the cost obtained by deducting the electricity fee and the preset 25-year discount formula.

[0152]

[0153] The installed capacity increment is the difference between the unit power corresponding to the energy source of each candidate scale and the unit power corresponding to the energy source of the reference scale.

[0154] The increase in fixed investment is the product of the increase in installed capacity and the preset unit price of the wind turbine equipment.

[0155] Based on the data in Table 2 above, the first difference between the 15-year discount and the fixed investment growth rate, as well as the second difference between the 25-year discount and the fixed investment growth rate, are determined respectively. The obtained data are shown in Table 3.

[0156] Table 3

[0157]

[0158] According to the data in Table 3 above, the maximum value of the first difference is determined to be RMB 89.71 million, corresponding to a coefficient of 1.1, and the maximum value of the second difference is determined to be RMB 180.94 million, corresponding to a coefficient of 1.2. Therefore, when the load equipment is two silicomanganese blast furnaces, the predicted coefficient is 1.1-1.2, and the corresponding unit power range is 99.99-109.08MW. Based on the proportional relationship calculation based on the benchmark wind farm scale of 15 wind turbines, it is determined that the number of wind turbines corresponding to this range is 17-18.

[0159] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of the scale prediction device provided in the embodiment of the present application. Figure 4 As shown, the scale prediction device 400 includes:

[0160] The acquisition module 401 is used to obtain the power abandonment ratio of each candidate scale energy source, where the power abandonment ratio is used to indicate the ratio of wasted electricity in the theoretical power generation of the candidate scale energy source.

[0161] Processing module 402 is used to determine a reference-scale energy source from the energy sources of each candidate scale based on the proportion of power curtailment of the energy sources of each candidate scale, and to determine the additional value of each energy source of the candidate scale based on the energy source of the reference scale, wherein the additional value is used to indicate the value of converting the energy source of the reference scale into the energy source of the candidate scale.

[0162] The processing module 402 is further configured to determine a target-scale energy source from the candidate-scale energy sources based on the additional value of each candidate-scale energy source, and the target-scale energy source is configured to provide power to a preset load device.

[0163] The output module 403 is used to output the energy source of the target scale.

[0164] Optionally, the processing module 402 is specifically configured to determine a power curtailment ratio of energy sources of each candidate scale, including:

[0165] The trigger acquisition module 401 acquires the theoretical power generation of the energy source of the reference scale and acquires the power consumed by the load device in the theoretical power generation, where the reference scale is different from the candidate scale;

[0166] The processing module 402 is used to predict the power abandonment ratio of each candidate scale energy source based on the theoretical power generation of the benchmark scale energy source and the power consumed by the load equipment in the theoretical power generation.

[0167] Optionally, the processing module 402 is specifically configured to obtain the amount of power consumed by the load device in the theoretical power generation, including:

[0168] The trigger acquisition module 401 acquires the theoretical power generation of the energy source of the benchmark scale in each time interval within a preset time period;

[0169] The processing module 402 is configured to determine, for each time interval, the amount of power consumed by the load device out of the theoretical power generation in the time interval based on the theoretical power generation of the energy source of the benchmark scale in the time interval and the power demand of the load device in the time interval;

[0170] The processing module 402 is further configured to determine the amount of electricity consumed by the load devices in the theoretical power generation of the energy source of the benchmark size over a preset time period based on the amount of electricity consumed by the load devices in the theoretical power generation in each time interval.

[0171] Optionally, the processing module 402 is specifically configured to determine the additional value of each energy source of each candidate scale based on the energy source of the reference scale, including:

[0172] For each candidate-scale energy source, determining an investment increase based on the candidate-scale energy source and the reference-scale energy source, the investment increase being used to indicate the investment size for transforming the reference-scale energy source into the candidate-scale energy source;

[0173] The additional value of the energy source of the candidate scale is determined based on the investment increase and the deductible electricity fee of the energy source of the candidate scale. The deductible electricity fee is used to indicate: the electricity fee offset by the energy source of the candidate scale providing electricity to the load equipment within a preset number of years.

[0174] Furthermore, the processing module 402 is specifically configured to determine the additional value of the energy source of the candidate scale based on the investment increase and the deductible electricity fee of the energy source of the candidate scale, and further includes:

[0175] For each energy source of the candidate scale, determining the power increment of the energy source of the candidate scale according to the power consumed by the load equipment in the energy source of the candidate scale and the power consumed by the load equipment in the energy source of the reference scale;

[0176] The deductible electricity fee of the energy source of the candidate scale is determined according to the electricity quantity increment of the energy source of the candidate scale.

[0177] Furthermore, the processing module 402 is specifically configured to determine the deductible electricity fee of each energy source of the candidate scale according to the electricity increment of the energy source of the candidate scale, including:

[0178] The trigger acquisition module 401 acquires a preset number of years, which is used to indicate the number of years that the energy source of the candidate scale provides electric energy to the preset load equipment;

[0179] Determine the electricity cost offset by the energy source of the candidate scale providing electricity to the load equipment for one year based on the energy increment and the deduction unit price of the energy source of the candidate scale, where the deduction unit price indicates the offset electricity cost corresponding to the unit amount of electricity in the energy increment;

[0180] The deductible electricity charges of the energy sources of the candidate sizes are determined based on the electricity charges offset by the energy sources of the candidate sizes providing electricity to the load equipment for one year and the preset number of years.

[0181] Optionally, the processing module 402 is specifically configured to determine, for each energy source of a candidate scale, an investment increase according to the energy source of the candidate scale and the energy source of the reference scale, including:

[0182] For each candidate-scale energy source, determining an installed capacity increment, where the installed capacity increment indicates an increase in power after the reference-scale energy source is transformed into the candidate-scale energy source;

[0183] Determine the investment increase based on the installed capacity increase.

[0184] The scale prediction device provided in this embodiment can execute the scale prediction method of the above embodiment. Its implementation principle and technical effects are similar and will not be described in detail in this embodiment.

[0185] In an embodiment of the present invention, the electronic device or main control device can be divided into functional modules according to the above method example. For example, each functional module can be divided according to each function, or two or more functions can be integrated into one processing unit. The above-mentioned integrated unit can be implemented in the form of hardware or in the form of software functional modules. It should be noted that the division of modules in the embodiment of the present invention is schematic and is only a logical functional division. In actual implementation, there may be other division methods.

[0186] In the specific implementation of the aforementioned scale prediction device, each module may be implemented as a processor, and the processor may execute computer-executable instructions stored in a memory, so that the processor executes the aforementioned scale prediction method.

[0187] Figure 5Schematic diagram of the hardware structure of the electronic device provided in the embodiment of the present application. Figure 5 As shown, the electronic device 500 includes:

[0188] At least one processor 501 and memory 502 .

[0189] The electronic device further includes a communication component 503 .

[0190] The processor 501 , the memory 502 and the communication component 503 are connected via a bus 504 .

[0191] In a specific implementation process, at least one processor 501 executes the computer-executable instructions stored in the memory 502, so that at least one processor 501 executes the scale prediction method as described above.

[0192] The specific implementation process of the processor 501 can be found in the above method embodiment. Its implementation principle and technical effects are similar and will not be repeated here in this embodiment.

[0193] In the above embodiments, it should be understood that the processor may be a central processing unit (CPU), or other general-purpose processors, a digital signal processor (DSP), an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC), etc. The general-purpose processor may be a microprocessor or any conventional processor. The steps of the method disclosed in the present invention may be directly implemented by a hardware processor or implemented by a combination of hardware and software modules in the processor.

[0194] The memory may include a high-speed RAM memory, and may also include a non-volatile storage NVM, such as at least one disk storage.

[0195] The bus can be an Industry Standard Architecture (ISA) bus, a Peripheral Component Interconnect (PCI) bus, or an Extended Industry Standard Architecture (EISA) bus. Buses can be divided into address buses, data buses, control buses, etc. For ease of illustration, the buses in the drawings of this application are not limited to just one bus or just one type of bus.

[0196] The above describes the solutions provided by the embodiments of the present invention with respect to the functions implemented by the electronic device and the main control device.

[0197] It is understandable that, in order to realize the above functions, the electronic device or the main control device includes the corresponding hardware structure and / or software module for executing each function.

[0198] In combination with the units and algorithm steps of each example described in the embodiments disclosed in the embodiments of the present invention, the embodiments of the present invention can be implemented in the form of hardware or a combination of hardware and computer software. Whether a function is executed in hardware or in a manner driven by computer software depends on the specific application and design constraints of the technical solution. Those skilled in the art may use different methods to implement the described functions for each specific application, but such implementation should not be considered to exceed the scope of the technical solution of the embodiments of the present invention.

[0199] The present application also provides a computer program product, comprising a computer program, which implements the scale prediction method when executed by a processor.

[0200] The computer program product provided in this embodiment can execute the scale prediction method of the above embodiment. Its implementation principle and technical effects are similar and will not be described in detail in this embodiment.

[0201] The present application also provides a computer-readable storage medium, which stores computer-executable instructions. When a processor executes the computer-executable instructions, the above-mentioned scale prediction method is implemented.

[0202] The computer-readable storage medium provided in this embodiment can execute the scale prediction method of the above embodiment. Its implementation principle and technical effects are similar and will not be described in detail in this embodiment.

[0203] The computer-readable storage medium mentioned above can be implemented by any type of volatile or non-volatile memory device or a combination thereof, such as static random access memory (SRAM), electrically erasable programmable read-only memory (EEPROM), erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM), programmable read-only memory (PROM), read-only memory (ROM), magnetic memory, flash memory, magnetic disk, or optical disk. The computer-readable storage medium can be any available medium that can be accessed by a general-purpose or special-purpose computer.

[0204] An exemplary readable storage medium is coupled to a processor so that the processor can read information from the readable storage medium and write information to the readable storage medium. Of course, the readable storage medium can also be an integral part of the processor. The processor and the readable storage medium can be located in an application specific integrated circuit (ASIC). Of course, the processor and the readable storage medium can also exist as discrete components in an electronic device or a main control device.

[0205] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that all or part of the steps in the above-described method embodiments can be implemented using hardware associated with program instructions. The aforementioned program can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. When executed, the program performs the steps of the above-described method embodiments. The aforementioned storage medium includes various media capable of storing program code, such as ROM, RAM, magnetic disks, or optical disks.

[0206] It should be noted that the user information (including but not limited to user device information, user personal information, etc.) and data (including but not limited to data used for analysis, stored data, displayed data, etc.) involved in this application are all information and data authorized by the user or fully authorized by all parties, and the collection, use and processing of relevant data must comply with relevant laws, regulations and standards, and provide corresponding operation entrances for users to choose to authorize or refuse.

[0207] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the above embodiments, or replace some or all of the technical features therein with equivalents. However, these modifications or replacements do not cause the essence of the corresponding technical solutions to deviate from the scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A scale prediction method, characterized in that: include: Determining a power abandonment ratio of each candidate scale energy source, where the power abandonment ratio indicates a ratio of wasted electricity in the theoretical power generation of the candidate scale energy source; Determine a reference scale energy source from the candidate scale energy sources based on the proportion of power curtailment of the candidate scale energy sources; Determining, based on the energy source of the reference scale, an additional value for each energy source of the candidate scale, wherein the additional value indicates the value of converting the energy source of the reference scale into the energy source of the candidate scale; According to the additional value of each energy source of each candidate scale, an energy source of a target scale is determined from the energy sources of each candidate scale, and the energy source of the target scale is used to provide electric energy for a preset load device.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Determining the proportion of power curtailment of energy sources of each candidate scale includes: Obtaining theoretical power generation of an energy source of a reference scale, which is one of the energy sources of each candidate scale, and obtaining the amount of power consumed by the load device in the theoretical power generation; The proportion of power abandonment of energy sources of each candidate scale is predicted based on the theoretical power generation of the energy source of the benchmark scale and the amount of power consumed by load equipment in the theoretical power generation.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The obtaining of the amount of power consumed by the load device in the theoretical power generation includes: Obtaining theoretical power generation of the energy source of the benchmark scale in each time interval within a preset time period; For each time interval, determining the amount of electricity consumed by the load device in the theoretical power generation during the time interval based on the theoretical power generation of the energy source of the benchmark size during the time interval and the power demand of the load device during the time interval; The amount of electricity consumed by the load equipment in the theoretical power generation of the energy source of the reference size for a preset time period is determined based on the amount of electricity consumed by the load equipment in the theoretical power generation in each time interval.

4. The method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, characterized in that The determining of the additional value of each energy source of each candidate scale based on the energy source of the reference scale includes: For each candidate-scale energy source, determining an investment increase based on the candidate-scale energy source and the reference-scale energy source, wherein the investment increase indicates the investment required to transform the reference-scale energy source into the candidate-scale energy source; The additional value of the energy source of the candidate scale is determined based on the investment increase and the deductible electricity fee of the energy source of the candidate scale. The deductible electricity fee is used to indicate: the electricity fee offset by the energy source of the candidate scale providing electricity to the load equipment within a preset number of years.

5. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that Before determining the additional value of the energy source of the candidate scale based on the investment increase and the deductible electricity fee of the energy source of the candidate scale, the method further includes: For each energy source of a candidate scale, determining an energy increment of the energy source of the candidate scale according to the amount of electricity consumed by the load device in the energy source of the candidate scale and the amount of electricity consumed by the load device in the energy source of the reference scale; The deductible electricity fee of the energy source of the candidate scale is determined according to the electricity quantity increment of the energy source of the candidate scale.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that The step of determining the deductible electricity fee of each of the energy sources of the candidate scales according to the increment of electricity of the energy sources of the candidate scales includes: Obtaining a preset number of years, where the preset number of years indicates the number of years that the energy source of the candidate size provides electric energy to a preset load device; Determine, based on the energy increment and the deduction unit price of the energy source of the candidate scale, the electricity cost offset by the energy source of the candidate scale providing electricity to the load equipment for one year, wherein the deduction unit price indicates the offset electricity cost corresponding to the unit amount of electricity in the energy increment; The deductible electricity charges of the energy sources of the candidate sizes are determined according to the electricity charges offset by the energy sources of the candidate sizes providing electricity to the load equipment for one year and the preset number of years.

7. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that For each energy source of a candidate scale, determining an investment increase according to the energy source of the candidate scale and the energy source of the reference scale includes: For each candidate-scale energy source, determining an installed capacity increment, where the installed capacity increment indicates an increase in power after the reference-scale energy source is transformed into the candidate-scale energy source; The investment increase is determined based on the installed capacity increase.

8. A scale prediction device, characterized in that: include: an acquisition module, configured to acquire a power abandonment ratio of each candidate scale energy source, wherein the power abandonment ratio indicates a ratio of wasted electricity in a theoretical power generation of the candidate scale energy source; a processing module configured to determine a reference-scale energy source from the energy sources of the candidate scales based on a percentage of power curtailment of the energy sources of the candidate scales, and to determine an additional value for each of the energy sources of the candidate scales based on the energy sources of the reference scales, the additional value being used to indicate the value of converting the energy sources of the reference scales into the energy sources of the candidate scales; The processing module is further configured to determine a target-scale energy source from the energy sources of the candidate scales according to the respective additional values of the energy sources of the candidate scales, wherein the target-scale energy source is used to provide electric energy for a preset load device; Output module, used to output energy source of target scale.

9. An electronic device comprising a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein: When the processor executes the computer program, the electronic device implements the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7 is implemented.

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