Method for calculating failure probability of earth-rock dam seepage destruction, terminal device and storage medium

Abstract

The application is suitable for the technical field of water conservancy projects, and provides a soil and rock dam permeation damage failure probability calculation method, a terminal device and a storage medium. The soil and rock dam permeation damage failure probability calculation method comprises the following steps: constructing a soil and rock dam anti-seepage body standardized model; calculating an anti-seepage system defect coefficient of a soil and rock dam to be analyzed; obtaining a first permeation damage failure probability of the soil and rock dam to be analyzed by using an engineering analogy evaluation method; obtaining a second permeation damage failure probability based on a Bayesian method according to the construction quality and the operation state of the soil and rock dam to be analyzed; and performing logarithmic weighted average on the first permeation damage failure probability and the second permeation damage failure probability to obtain a comprehensive permeation damage failure probability. Compared with the prior art, the comprehensive permeation damage failure probability obtained by the application is closer to the basic situation of statistical data, and can more accurately evaluate a specific project.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of water conservancy projects, and more particularly to a method for calculating the failure probability of seepage damage in earth-rock dams, a terminal device and a storage medium. Background Art

[0002] Seepage failure is an accident that lacks intuitive evaluation indicators or phenomena. The failure of an earth-rock dam due to seepage failure is a gradual process, with seepage volume gradually increasing over a period of time. After a breach occurs, flood flow also takes a long time to gradually increase to peak flow. Effective early warning and appropriate response to seepage failure in earth-rock dams can delay failure, reduce losses, or even prevent it, ultimately eliminating the disaster. Therefore, rapid assessment of the seepage safety status of earth-rock dams is crucial for early warning and response to seepage failure.

[0003] Determining safety indicators for seepage failure is difficult because it is influenced by factors such as dam height and river valley shape, and no definitive method has been proposed. According to the "Guidelines for Reservoir Dam Safety Assessment," dam safety is generally assessed using monitoring data analysis, comparing the results of field data analysis with the allowable values ​​specified in the standard. While a mature evaluation theory has yet to be established for anti-seepage materials such as clay, hydraulic gradient is often used as an indicator of seepage failure. This method is generally highly accurate and has a wealth of computational experience. However, it reflects the hydraulic conditions at a single computational node and cannot accurately represent the seepage behavior of a specific area. Similarly, the hydraulic gradient inferred from measured dam water level data only reflects the general operating conditions within the anti-seepage structure and cannot identify the specific location of failure. Therefore, the more reliable evaluation standard currently being developed is to use numerical simulations to determine the continuous hydraulic gradient field within the dam. This method has been widely used to predict seepage conditions and evaluate operational data for ongoing projects. However, considering that the accuracy of numerical calculations is directly related to the refinement of the mesh, and based on current computer technology, relatively fine computational meshes are often accompanied by complex iterative calculations and extremely long calculation times, it is clear that this method, while accurate and effective, has certain limitations in its scope of application and is not suitable for rapid assessment of dam seepage conditions in a short period of time.

[0004] In theory, the safety status of seepage can be assessed by experienced experts based on monitoring data such as seepage pressure and seepage flow, as well as calculated seepage fields and flow rates. However, in practice, the number of seepage pressure monitoring points within a dam is often far from sufficient to establish a seepage field, and the remaining seepage pressure monitoring data is considered less reliable due to factors such as equipment durability and piezometric tube blockage. Furthermore, the compilation and analysis of seepage pressure monitoring data within the dam often has a certain time lag. Therefore, the value of seepage pressure monitoring for rapid assessment of seepage safety status is significantly limited. Even if the monitoring data is complete and compiled in a timely manner, the lack of relevant indicators and thresholds requires expert input and subjective judgment, making it difficult to determine safety through a simple computer-based safety warning system.

[0005] Seepage monitoring is generally intuitive, accurate, and easy to maintain, and is a reliable basis for seepage safety evaluation. However, due to differences in topographic conditions, dam height, and dam cross-section at earth-rock dam sites, the same seepage volume can represent different safety characteristics for different projects. In the absence of scientific and quantitative analysis methods, it is difficult for managers who do not have long-term, multi-condition observation experience on the same project, or for computers (safety early warning systems) that must rely on quantitative indicators and thresholds for judgment, to use seepage monitoring data to conduct a quick and simple evaluation of seepage safety.

[0006] Due to the complexity of seepage failure in earth-rockfill dams and the computational complexity associated with existing evaluation standards, current research and evaluation of seepage failure in earth-rockfill dams primarily focuses on traditional fault tree analysis and event tree evaluation methods. These methods generally assess dam failure risk from a holistic perspective, requiring a case-by-case assessment based on various failure factors. Unlike other earth-rockfill dam failure forms such as overtopping, earth-rockfill dam failure due to seepage failure lacks intuitive evaluation indicators, requiring the construction of a failure probability model based on extensive dam failure data. However, with the advancement of earth-rockfill dam construction and design standards, the available dam failure data is largely limited to older homogeneous earth dams. Data on seepage failure in earth-rockfill dams using anti-seepage units is scarce, and even fewer exist for high earth-rockfill dams. Consequently, the traditional failure probability assessment system for earth-rockfill dams due to seepage failure is becoming increasingly unsuitable for today's demands. Summary of the Invention

[0007] (1) Technical issues to be resolved

[0008] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is that the traditional earth-rock dam seepage failure probability evaluation system has gradually become unsuitable for the requirements of today's society.

[0009] (2) Technical solution

[0010] To achieve the above object, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is:

[0011] In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a method for calculating the failure probability of seepage damage in earth-rockfill dams, comprising the following steps:

[0012] S1. Construct a standardized model of earth-rock dam anti-seepage body;

[0013] S2. Calculating the impermeability system defect coefficient of the earth-rockfill dam to be analyzed based on the standardized model of the earth-rockfill dam impermeability body, wherein the impermeability system defect coefficient is the ratio of the apparent permeability coefficient to the test value of the permeability coefficient, and the apparent permeability coefficient is the ratio of the actual seepage rate to the theoretical seepage rate;

[0014] S3. Using the first seepage failure probability and the anti-seepage system defect coefficient of multiple earth-rockfill dams of the same type as statistical samples, an engineering analogy evaluation method is used to obtain a functional relationship between the first seepage failure probability and the anti-seepage system defect coefficient, and the first seepage failure probability of the earth-rockfill dam to be analyzed is calculated based on the functional relationship;

[0015] S4. Calculate a baseline failure probability of the earth-rock dam to be analyzed based on the construction quality and operating status of the earth-rock dam to be analyzed, and obtain a second seepage failure probability based on the Bayesian method according to the baseline failure probability;

[0016] S5. Perform a logarithmic weighted average of the first penetration damage failure probability and the second penetration damage failure probability to obtain a comprehensive penetration damage failure probability.

[0017] In a possible implementation of the first aspect, step S1 includes the following steps:

[0018] In the Cartesian rectangular coordinate system, a standardized model of the earth-rock dam anti-seepage body is constructed, in which the direction from the left bank to the right bank along the dam axis is taken as the x The positive direction of the coordinate is from upstream to downstream along the river. y The positive direction of the coordinate is from low altitude to high altitude along the vertical direction z The positive direction of the coordinate is defined as the tangent direction of the anti-seepage body from bottom to top as the positive direction of the length of the anti-seepage body. The corresponding coordinate is l .

[0019] In a possible implementation of the first aspect, step S2 includes the following steps:

[0020] Based on the standardized model of the earth-rock dam anti-seepage body, the seepage volume of the anti-seepage body at the height z and length l is calculated according to Darcy's law. dQ ;

[0021] Seepage rate of the anti-seepage body along its length dQ Perform integration to obtain the theoretical seepage capacity of the earth-rock dam anti-seepage body;

[0022] A water measuring weir is set up at the downstream toe of the earth-rock dam, and a seepage flow measurement device is installed inside the water measuring weir to measure the actual seepage flow of the earth-rock dam;

[0023] Calculating an apparent permeability coefficient, wherein the apparent permeability coefficient is a ratio of the actual permeability to the theoretical permeability;

[0024] The permeability coefficient test value is obtained through a permeability coefficient test;

[0025] The defect coefficient of the anti-seepage system is calculated, where the defect coefficient of the anti-seepage system is the ratio of the apparent permeability coefficient to the test value of the permeability coefficient.

[0026] In a possible implementation of the first aspect, the expectation of the second penetration damage failure probability is:

[0027]

[0028]

[0029]

[0030] in, x For analysis period T The number of dam failures in a period of time, if the dam is operating safely during the corresponding period, then the number of dam failures in this period of time x is a fixed value, x =0, Is a parameter, equal to the actual duration of experience , is the parameter, is the baseline failure probability.

[0031] In a possible implementation of the first aspect, a first seepage failure probability of an earth-rock dam is fitted using a normal distribution cumulative probability curve. When the earth-rock dam to be analyzed is a concrete face dam, a functional relationship between the first seepage failure probability and the defect coefficient of the anti-seepage system is:

[0032]

[0033] in, is the first penetration failure probability, R is the defect coefficient of the anti-seepage system.

[0034] In a possible implementation of the first aspect, if the earth-rock dam is a new construction project, step S4 includes the following steps:

[0035] Calculating baseline failure probability : ,in, is the probability of seepage failure, which is calculated based on the safety level of the earth-rock dam. It is a correction factor, which is determined by the construction quality, operation status or expert evaluation during the construction period;

[0036] The initial penetration damage failure probability is taken as the prior probability;

[0037] Construct a likelihood function that follows a Poisson distribution;

[0038] The posterior probability is calculated based on the prior probability and the likelihood function, and the posterior probability is the second penetration damage failure probability.

[0039] In a possible implementation of the first aspect, the comprehensive penetration failure probability Calculate according to the following formula:

[0040]

[0041] in, is the second penetration failure probability, is the first penetration failure probability, is the credibility coefficient of the monitoring data, ( ).

[0042] In a possible implementation of the first aspect, the average annual seepage failure probability of earth-rock dams within a certain analysis period is Expressed as:

[0043]

[0044] in, is the start time of the analysis period, The end time of the analysis period.

[0045] Compared with the prior art, the embodiments of the present application have the following beneficial effects:

[0046] The present invention provides a method for calculating the failure probability of seepage damage in earth-rock dams.

[0047] The present invention calculates a first seepage failure probability by comparing it horizontally with similar projects and using an engineering analogy evaluation method. It then calculates a baseline failure probability for the earth-rock dam to be analyzed based on the construction quality and operating status of the earth-rock dam to be analyzed. Based on the baseline failure probability, a second seepage failure probability is obtained using the Bayesian method. The calculation of the seepage failure probability of the earth-rock dam is achieved by combining the first and second seepage failure probabilities. Compared to the earth-rock dam seepage failure probability evaluation systems in the prior art, the seepage failure probability calculated by the present invention is closer to the basic statistical data and provides a more accurate evaluation of a specific project. Furthermore, the present invention can continuously update the seepage failure probability of the earth-rock dam based on subsequent operational data, and the data is real-time.

[0048] In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a terminal device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor. When the processor executes the computer program, the method for calculating the failure probability of seepage damage in earth-rock dams as described in any one of the first aspects is implemented.

[0049] In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a storage medium storing a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, implements the method for calculating the failure probability of seepage damage of an earth-rock dam as described in any one of the first aspects.

[0050] In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a computer program product. When the computer program product is run on a terminal device, the terminal device executes the method for calculating the failure probability of seepage damage of an earth-rock dam described in any one of the first aspects above.

[0051] It can be understood that the beneficial effects of the second to fifth aspects mentioned above can be found in the relevant description of the first aspect mentioned above, and will not be repeated here. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0052] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying any creative work.

[0053] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a method for calculating the failure probability of seepage damage in earth-rockfill dams provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

[0054] Figure 2 It is a structural side view of the standardized model of the earth-rock dam anti-seepage body provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

[0055] Figure 3 It is a structural front view of the standardized model of the earth-rock dam anti-seepage body provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

[0056] Figure 4 It is a structural diagram of a terminal device provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

[0057] Figure 5 This is a fitting curve diagram of the inter-annual seepage failure probability of an earth-rock dam provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

[0058] The reference numerals in the figures are:

[0059] 2. Terminal device; 20. Processor; 21. Memory; 22. Computer program. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0060] In the following description, specific details such as specific system structures and techniques are provided for purposes of illustration rather than limitation to facilitate a thorough understanding of the embodiments of the present application. However, it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that the present application may be implemented in other embodiments without these specific details. In other cases, detailed descriptions of well-known systems, devices, circuits, and methods are omitted to avoid obscuring the description of the present application with unnecessary detail.

[0061] It should be understood that when used in the present specification and the appended claims, the term "comprising" indicates the presence of described features, integers, steps, operations, elements and / or components, but does not preclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, integers, steps, operations, elements, components and / or collections thereof.

[0062] It will also be understood that the term "and / or" used in this specification and the appended claims refers to and includes any and all possible combinations of one or more of the associated listed items.

[0063] References to "one embodiment" or "some embodiments" in this specification mean that a particular feature, structure, or characteristic described in conjunction with that embodiment is included in one or more embodiments of the present application. Thus, phrases such as "in one embodiment," "in some embodiments," "in other embodiments," and "in other embodiments" appearing in various places in this specification do not necessarily refer to the same embodiment, but rather mean "one or more but not all embodiments," unless otherwise specifically emphasized. The terms "including," "comprising," "having," and variations thereof all mean "including but not limited to," unless otherwise specifically emphasized.

[0064] The method for calculating the failure probability of seepage damage of earth-rock dams provided in the embodiments of the present application can be applied to terminal devices such as mobile phones, tablet computers, wearable devices, vehicle-mounted devices, augmented reality (AR) / virtual reality (VR) devices, laptop computers, ultra-mobile personal computers (UMPCs), netbooks, and personal digital assistants (PDAs). The embodiments of the present application do not impose any restrictions on the specific type of terminal devices.

[0065] For example, the terminal device can be a station (STAION, ST) in a WLAN, a cellular phone, a cordless phone, a Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) phone, a Wireless Local Loop (WLL) station, a Personal Digital Assistant (PDA) device, a handheld device with wireless communication function, a computing device or other processing device connected to a wireless modem, a vehicle-mounted device, a vehicle networking terminal, a computer, a laptop computer, a handheld communication device, a handheld computing device, a satellite wireless device, a wireless modem card, a TV set-top box (STB), customer premise equipment (CPE) and / or other devices for communicating on a wireless system and a next-generation communication system, such as a mobile terminal in a 5G network or a mobile terminal in a future evolved Public Land Mobile Network (PLMN) network.

[0066] like Figure 1 As shown, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for calculating the failure probability of seepage damage in earth-rock dams, comprising the following steps:

[0067] S1. Construct a standardized model of earth-rock dam anti-seepage body;

[0068] S2. Calculating the impermeability system defect coefficient of the earth-rockfill dam to be analyzed based on the standardized model of the earth-rockfill dam impermeability body, wherein the impermeability system defect coefficient is the ratio of the apparent permeability coefficient to the test value of the permeability coefficient, and the apparent permeability coefficient is the ratio of the actual seepage rate to the theoretical seepage rate;

[0069] S3. Using the first seepage failure probability and the anti-seepage system defect coefficient of multiple earth-rockfill dams of the same type as statistical samples, an engineering analogy evaluation method is used to obtain a functional relationship between the first seepage failure probability and the anti-seepage system defect coefficient, and the first seepage failure probability of the earth-rockfill dam to be analyzed is calculated based on the functional relationship;

[0070] S4. Calculate a baseline failure probability of the earth-rock dam to be analyzed based on the construction quality and operating status of the earth-rock dam to be analyzed, and obtain a second seepage failure probability based on the Bayesian method according to the baseline failure probability;

[0071] S5. Perform a logarithmic weighted average of the first penetration damage failure probability and the second penetration damage failure probability to obtain a comprehensive penetration damage failure probability.

[0072] like Figure 2 and Figure 3 As shown in Figure 2, the construction process of the standardized model of the earth-rock dam anti-seepage body is as follows:

[0073] An earth-rock dam is a project built on a covering layer. In the covering layer, a concrete cut-off wall or a combination of a concrete cut-off wall and a grouting curtain is often used to cut off seepage. The cover layer cut-off wall is integrated with the cut-off body in the dam body. Figure 2 shown.

[0074] In actual projects, due to the complexity of grouting operations and geological conditions, the anti-seepage coefficient of the contact curtain is often impossible to determine. At the same time, the leakage through the anti-seepage curtain cannot be measured in actual projects. Therefore, the anti-seepage curtain is generally not included in the calculation scope of the anti-seepage body. Under most conditions, only the anti-seepage body of the dam body and the anti-seepage wall in the cover layer are regarded as the analysis objects of the entire project.

[0075] In the Cartesian rectangular coordinate system, a standardized model of the earth-rock dam anti-seepage body is constructed, in which the direction from the left bank to the right bank along the dam axis is taken as the x The positive direction of the coordinate is from upstream to downstream along the river. y The positive direction of the coordinate is from low altitude to high altitude along the vertical direction z The positive direction of the coordinate is defined as the tangent direction of the anti-seepage body from bottom to top as the positive direction of the length of the anti-seepage body. The corresponding coordinate is l .

[0076] Because the seepage coefficient of the impermeable material is relatively small, especially in the unsaturated state, actual calculations assume that no seepage occurs in the impermeable body above the reservoir water level, and that the surface head on the downstream side of the impermeable body is equal to the water level behind the dam. The head in the dam is concentrated within the impermeable body, gradually and evenly decreasing from the water level in front of the dam to the water level behind the dam. It is assumed that the seepage direction in the impermeable body is orthogonal to the body's central axis (median axis plane), that the impermeable body is uniformly permeable, and that the seepage conforms to Darcy's law.

[0077] This method does not take into account possible defects in the impermeable body itself, local defects in the joints such as the contact between the dam body and the river valley, and detailed structures such as joints and water stops.

[0078] Assume that the current upstream water level is , the downstream water level is The thickness of the anti-seepage body along the direction perpendicular to the center line is (For projects with multiple anti-seepage bodies, the thickness is the sum of the thicknesses of the multiple anti-seepage bodies), and the width along the dam axis is , the thickness and width of the anti-seepage body are vertical coordinates z or length coordinate l function.

[0079] z Coordinates and l The coordinates can be converted using a certain conversion relationship. Taking a straight core wall rockfill dam as an example, the “depth” from the dam top downward is defined as s ,Right now

[0080]

[0081] Where z damtop is the elevation of the dam crest, and z is the elevation of any point on the cross section of the impermeable body.

[0082]

[0083] Where, is the slope ratio of the upstream surface of the core wall. z At (length coordinate l ) is a certain height of dz (Length is dl ) of the impermeable body (such as Figure 2 and Figure 3 ), when the anti-seepage body is above the downstream water level When the water head difference is When the anti-seepage body is below the downstream water level, the head difference it bears is Let the function Indicates height z At (length coordinate l ) The water head difference that the anti-seepage body bears, that is,

[0084]

[0085]

[0086] Darcy's law describes the movement of groundwater in saturated sand in a laminar flow state: the amount of seepage water in sand is QHead difference with seepage (h 1 -h 2 =Δh) is proportional to the path through the specimen L Inversely proportional. The formula can be used v=ki (Hydraulic gradient i=Δh / L , dimensionless). Combined with the continuity equation in hydraulics Q=vA , which can be further written as Q = kiA According to Darcy's law, the average hydraulic gradient in the anti-seepage body at this location is:

[0087]

[0088] assumed k is the permeability coefficient, then the elevation is z Seepage volume of the anti-seepage body at dQ for:

[0089]

[0090] By integrating the above formula from bottom to top along the length (height) direction, the seepage volume through the entire anti-seepage body can be calculated:

[0091]

[0092] in, is the length coordinate of the lowest part of the infiltration surface of the anti-seepage body, It is the length coordinate of the upstream water level position on the anti-seepage body.

[0093] Depth and length coordinates l After association, the functions in the above formula can be expressed explicitly:

[0094]

[0095]

[0096]

[0097] in, is the normal downstream water level or the water level corresponding to the corresponding seepage volume, is the slope ratio of the left bank of the earth-rock dam, is the slope ratio of the right bank of the earth-rock dam, is the slope ratio of the upstream side of the core wall of the anti-seepage body, is the slope ratio of the downstream side of the core wall of the anti-seepage body, is the dam crest elevation, is the width of the dam crest along the dam axis, is the length coordinate of the top of the impermeable body.

[0098] If, in actual engineering, the anti-seepage body unit is partitioned, that is, the anti-seepage body of the earth-rock dam is a partitioned dam (the dam section consists of an anti-seepage body and several partitions made of materials with different permeabilities, which can be divided into straight core wall dams, inclined core wall dams, face plate dams, and other types of anti-seepage body partitioned dams), and the partitioned dam includes multiple anti-seepage body units, then the seepage rate through the entire anti-seepage body can be written as:

[0099]

[0100] in, , and is the permeability coefficient of each anti-seepage unit, , and is the length coordinate corresponding to the top of each anti-seepage unit. If the anti-seepage body includes a cutoff wall, then is the length coordinate of the lowest point of the wall.

[0101] Through the above formula, the actual seepage volume and water level monitoring data of the project can be used to calculate the water level. Calculate the apparent permeability coefficient of the corresponding anti-seepage body Actual seepage and water level monitoring data It can be obtained by setting up seepage flow measurement equipment in the water measuring weir.

[0102] If the calculation project uses a homogeneous impermeable body (meaning that the vast majority of the dam body is filled with a single, homogeneous soil material, and the entire body is built with uniform clay material such as loam or sandy loam), the apparent permeability coefficient can be simplified as:

[0103]

[0104] If the calculation project uses a heterogeneous anti-seepage body (different parts of the dam body are constructed with soil or materials of different properties), the corresponding apparent permeability coefficient can be simplified as follows:

[0105]

[0106] definition R Is the imperfection coefficient of the anti-seepage system, which indicates the degree of integrity defect of the anti-seepage system. The imperfection parameter of the anti-seepage system can be expressed as the apparent permeability coefficient and permeability coefficient test value The ratio of , that is:

[0107]

[0108] Permeability coefficient test value It can be obtained through experiments, generally through constant head test or variable head test.

[0109] The constant head test is suitable for highly permeable non-cohesive soils. During the test, the head difference is kept constant and the permeability coefficient is calculated by measuring the flow rate. The specific steps are as follows: fill the saturated sample in the transparent plastic cylinder and keep the head difference constant; after the head difference and seepage flow rate are stable, measure the flow rate. Q and time t .

[0110] According to Darcy's law formula Q= A(h 2 -h 1 ) / L ,in, h 2 -h 1 is the head difference, A is the cross-sectional area, L is the seepage path length, and the permeability coefficient test value is calculated . ‌

[0111] The variable head test is suitable for rock and soil with low permeability. During the test, the head difference changes with time, and the permeability coefficient is calculated by observing the head change. The specific steps are as follows: fill the soil sample in a glass tube or U-shaped tube with a scale and initially fill it with water to a certain height; record the starting and ending head differences, and calculate the change of the head difference with time. According to the instantaneous Darcy's law formula, the permeability coefficient test value is derived. . ‌

[0112] Calculated value of seepage flow under the same working conditions The ratio of , that is:

[0113]

[0114] Calculated seepage rate It can be understood that the permeability coefficient of the anti-seepage body is equal to the permeability coefficient test value Under the condition of , the relationship between seepage volume and upstream and downstream water levels is:

[0115]

[0116] , and is the test value of the permeability coefficient of each partition of the corresponding anti-seepage body.

[0117] In any analysis period, the average anti-seepage system defect coefficient Calculated by the following formula:

[0118]

[0119] Where, is the start time of the analysis period, is the end time of the analysis period, R is the defect coefficient of the anti-seepage system.

[0120] The concept of impermeability coefficient of anti-seepage system takes into account the physical properties of the impermeability material itself and the influence of defects and damage that may exist in various actual situations. It is an evaluation index for the safety status of actual projects. The traditional concept of permeability coefficient is a theoretical value obtained under ideal laboratory conditions without considering field defects. R If the calculated value is greater than 1 (i.e. the apparent permeability coefficient is greater than the permeability coefficient test value), it means that the anti-seepage material has not reached a uniform and complete state during actual application, that is, there is a certain degree of damage and defects during actual operation. In addition, according to the current relevant specifications for earth-rock dams in the water conservancy and hydropower industries, the permeability coefficient test value is The influence of confining pressure (stress state) or porosity (physical state) on permeability coefficient is not taken into account. R If the value is less than 1, it means that the actual anti-seepage performance of the anti-seepage system is higher than the design expectation due to the influence of confining pressure and other factors. The calculated anti-seepage system defect coefficient can also reflect the construction quality of the project to a certain extent. R The smaller the value, the better the construction quality and the fewer defects in the dam body. R The larger the value, the more it indicates that the construction quality of the project needs to be further improved.

[0121] For various types of earth-rock dams, a one-to-one correspondence between seepage rate and imperfection coefficient of anti-seepage system can be established according to the suggested generalization method of seepage rate.

[0122] The definition of the imperfection coefficient of the anti-seepage system reveals that, in principle, the magnitude of the imperfection coefficient's change with water level should be relatively small if the system's performance is relatively stable, and may even gradually decrease. This is primarily because the concept of the imperfection coefficient considers the system as a homogeneous entity, and the coefficient reflects the actual number of imperfections in the project. If the imperfections in the system remain unchanged during actual operation, the imperfection coefficient should remain constant, independent of the dam's operating conditions. The magnitude of the imperfection coefficient's change can be used to evaluate the stability of a project's imperfection system performance.

[0123] According to the current standards in my country, assuming For the standard normal distribution function, the target reliability index can be calculated using the following formula: The corresponding probability of dam slope instability :

[0124]

[0125] Considering the probability of failure Available service life The annual failure probability is obtained by averaging :

[0126]

[0127] From this, the target annual failure probability of slope instability of earth-rock dams at all levels can be calculated. , as shown in Table 1 below.

[0128] Table 1 Target values ​​of annual failure probability of earth-rock dams with different safety levels

[0129]

[0130] There are many factors that lead to the collapse of earth-rock dams. indivual( =1,2,… ) is an independent risk source, assuming that its annual probability of occurrence is , then:

[0131]

[0132] in is the annual failure probability of earth-rock dam failure, is the probability of overtopping, is the probability of penetration damage, is the probability of dam slope failure, , ( ) is the probability of collapse caused by other risk sources.

[0133] The construction quality and operating status during the construction and operation periods can also affect the assessment of the probability of seepage failure to a certain extent. Before introducing the historical operation monitoring data of the project, it is assumed that the initial seepage failure probability of the earth-rock dam is equal to the target value of the inter-annual failure probability, that is, the following formula:

[0134]

[0135] Where, is the correction coefficient, which is determined by the construction quality, operation status or expert evaluation during the construction period. If the analysis starting time is before water storage or safety assessment after completion, If the analysis starts at a point after the completion of the safety assessment, the correction factor is determined based on the most recent dam safety inspection, registration / commissioning safety filing, and other assessments authorized by the regulatory authority in accordance with national and industry safety regulatory requirements. Furthermore, the project's safety registration level will be updated after each regular safety inspection:

[0136] (1) For projects that have passed the inspection items stipulated by national laws and regulations, the project correction coefficient can be determined based on the inspection results;

[0137] (2) Based on the safety assessment, the correction factor defined as the “normal dam” project can be considered as , defined as a "sick dam" project, has a slightly higher probability of failure, and a correction factor can be taken , the project defined as "dangerous dam" can be considered to have a high probability of failure, and the correction factor is taken ;

[0138] (3) If there is no expert evaluation for the project to be analyzed or the appraisal results are not applicable, the correction factor is tentatively determined. .

[0139] Before the introduction of historical operation monitoring data of the project, It can be considered as the benchmark failure probability for analytical engineering.

[0140] like Figure 5 As shown in one embodiment, the normal distribution cumulative probability curve is used to fit the seepage failure probability of the earth-rock dam. When the earth-rock dam to be analyzed is a concrete face dam, the seepage failure probability is and the impermeability coefficient of the anti-seepage system R The relationship between can be expressed as:

[0141]

[0142] Based on this, the seepage failure probability derived from engineering analogies based on a limited number of project cases can be used as an indicator for evaluating the seepage safety status of earth-rockfill dams. This method not only estimates the seepage failure probability at a specific time in a project, but also calculates the seepage failure probability within a specific analysis period by averaging the seepage volume over a specific period. However, this method only considers horizontal comparisons between projects and can only assess project safety using data within the analysis period, without taking into account the historical performance of the project under analysis.

[0143] In the Bayesian method for calculating the probability of failure due to seepage damage, the prior probability can be considered as a probability assumed before new data is obtained for the event of failure due to seepage damage of an existing concrete face rockfill dam. For a certain project to be tested, its operating time can be divided into several unequal time periods starting from the analysis starting time. Based on existing experience, it is assumed that the interannual probability of failure due to seepage damage of a concrete face rockfill dam in a certain analysis time period is It conforms to the gamma distribution, that is:

[0144]

[0145] Where, and As a parameter. =1, then the mathematical expectation of the probability is , which can also be expressed as:

[0146]

[0147] For analysis periods other than the initial period, the mathematical expectation This is the posterior probability distribution of the previous analysis period.

[0148] If the project to be tested is in the analysis period T If the event runs safely within the specified range, the likelihood function of the event can be expressed by Poisson distribution as:

[0149]

[0150] Where, x For analysis period T If the dam is operated safely during this period, then the number of dam failures during this period will be x is a fixed value, x =0. Is a parameter, equal to the actual duration of the experience .

[0151] It is assumed that the probability of failure due to seepage damage of a concrete face rockfill dam in each independent analysis time period is independent and does not affect each other. For each of the above time periods, considering the assumed prior distribution and the actual safe operation history of the project, according to Bayesian theory, the posterior probability of dam failure after the safe operation history of the project is known should conform to the following distribution:

[0152]

[0153] That is to say

[0154]

[0155] Where, S is the normalization function, that is, the probability of obtaining this data, which can be expressed as:

[0156]

[0157] Right now

[0158]

[0159] Therefore, the expectation of the posterior probability can be expressed as:

[0160]

[0161] in,

[0162]

[0163]

[0164] In this way, for an earth-rock dam, as long as the project operates safely during this time period, the above formula can be used to calculate the new dam failure probability and its distribution in the next time period.

[0165] For each period in the running history since the initial moment ( Equal to the actual duration of experience ), an annual dam failure probability value can be calculated based on the average leakage of this period and the limited operating data of similar projects If the prior probability of dam failure in the initial or previous period assumed or calculated in the Bayesian method is expressed as , similarly, it can be assumed is the probability of dam failure in the previous period calculated by analogy, thus:

[0166]

[0167] In order to make up for the defects of the two methods, it is recommended to introduce comprehensive probability for completed projects (not initial time). Will and Perform logarithmic weighted averaging.

[0168] ( )

[0169] The above formula can realize the comprehensive application of Bayesian method and engineering analogy evaluation method (traditional statistical method). is the credibility coefficient of the monitoring data. =0.5.

[0170]

[0171] For new construction projects, when water is not yet stored in each project, the probability of the prior distribution is determined based on the target value of the construction safety level and the correction coefficient based on the above method. .

[0172] Considering the average leakage volume monitored during the analysis period , and this fact is also expressed as a likelihood function that follows a Poisson distribution:

[0173]

[0174] For each of the above time periods, considering the assumed prior distribution and the actual operation status of the project, that is, the average leakage, according to Bayesian theory, the posterior probability of dam failure after the operation status of the project is known should conform to the following distribution:

[0175]

[0176] Indicates that there is a new period of operation information After that, the posterior distribution after the probability distribution is refreshed; It is a prior distribution based on existing statistical information or the updated operating information of the previous period (before considering the current period); It is assumed that the current operating safety status, i.e. the probability of dam failure, is already known. The likelihood function after . So:

[0177]

[0178] Right now

[0179]

[0180] The parameters in the formula have the same meaning as the Bayesian method, that is,

[0181]

[0182]

[0183] During the above analysis period:

[0184]

[0185]

[0186]

[0187] For subsequent calculations, the mathematical expectation is the posterior probability obtained in the previous cycle. In other words, The probability of penetration damage during the analysis period .

[0188] Similarly, similar to the average anti-seepage system defect coefficient, the average annual seepage failure probability of the project to be analyzed within a certain analysis period can be expressed as:

[0189]

[0190] in, is the start time of the analysis period, The end time of the analysis period.

[0191] Compared with the single inter-annual penetration damage failure probability evaluation method, the penetration damage probability calculated by the comprehensive method is closer to the basic situation of statistical data and can provide a more accurate evaluation of a specific project.

[0192] like Figure 4 As shown, an embodiment of the present application also provides a terminal device 2, including at least one memory 21, at least one processor 20, and a computer program 22 stored in the memory 21 and executable on the processor 20. When the processor 20 executes the computer program 22, it implements the method for calculating the failure probability of seepage damage of an earth-rock dam as described in any one of the first aspects.

[0193] The terminal device 2 may be a computing device such as a desktop computer, a notebook, a PDA, or a cloud server. The terminal device 2 may include, but is not limited to, a processor 20 and a memory 21. Those skilled in the art will understand that Figure 4 It is only an example of the terminal device 2 and does not constitute a limitation on the terminal device 2. It may include more or fewer components than shown in the figure, or a combination of certain components, or different components. For example, it may also include input and output devices, network access devices, etc.

[0194] The processor 20 is a central processing unit (CPU). The processor can also be other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSPs), application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc. A general-purpose processor can be a microprocessor or any conventional processor. The processor can be the nerve center and command center of the wireless router. The processor can generate operation control signals based on instruction opcodes and timing signals to control instruction fetching and execution. The memory can be used to store computer executable program code, which includes instructions. The processor executes various functional applications and data processing of the network device by running the instructions stored in the memory. The memory can include a program storage area and a data storage area, such as for storing data of a sound signal to be played. For example, the memory can be a double data rate synchronous dynamic random access memory (DDR) or flash memory.

[0195] In some embodiments, the memory 21 may be an internal storage unit of the terminal device 2, such as a hard drive or memory of the terminal device 2. In other embodiments, the memory 21 may also be an external storage device of the terminal device 2, such as a plug-in hard drive, a Smart Media Card (SMC), a Secure Digital (SD) card, a flash memory card, etc. equipped on the terminal device 2. Furthermore, the memory 21 may include both an internal storage unit of the terminal device 2 and an external storage device. The memory 21 is used to store an operating system, application programs, a boot loader, data, and other programs, such as the program code of the computer program. The memory 21 may also be used to temporarily store data that has been output or is about to be output.

[0196] In one embodiment, the terminal device 2 may further include a communication module, which may provide communication solutions applied to the terminal device 2, including wireless local area networks (WLAN) (such as Wi-Fi networks), Bluetooth, Zigbee, mobile communication networks, global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), frequency modulation (FM), near field communication (NFC), infrared (IR), and the like. The communication module may be one or more devices integrating at least one communication processing module. The communication module may include an antenna, which may have only one array element or an antenna array including multiple array elements. The communication module may receive electromagnetic waves through the antenna, frequency modulate and filter the electromagnetic wave signals, and send the processed signals to the processor. The communication module may also receive signals to be transmitted from the processor, frequency modulate and amplify them, and convert them into electromagnetic waves for radiation via the antenna.

[0197] In one embodiment, the terminal device 2 may further include a power management module, which may receive input from a battery and / or a charger to power the processor, the memory, the communication module, and the like.

[0198] It should be understood that the size of the serial numbers of the steps in the above embodiments does not mean the order of execution. The execution order of each process should be determined by its function and internal logic, and should not constitute any limitation on the implementation process of the embodiments of this application.

[0199] It should be noted that the information interaction, execution process, etc. between the above-mentioned devices / units are based on the same concept as the method embodiment of this application. Their specific functions and technical effects can be found in the method embodiment section and will not be repeated here.

[0200] Those skilled in the art can clearly understand that, for the convenience and brevity of description, only the division of the above-mentioned functional units and modules is used as an example for illustration. In actual applications, the above-mentioned functions can be distributed and completed by different functional units and modules as needed, that is, the internal structure of the device can be divided into different functional units or modules to complete all or part of the functions described above. The functional units and modules in the embodiment can be integrated into one processing unit, or each unit can exist physically alone, or two or more units can be integrated into one unit. The above-mentioned integrated unit can be implemented in the form of hardware or in the form of software functional units. In addition, the specific names of the functional units and modules are only for the convenience of distinguishing each other, and are not used to limit the scope of protection of this application. The specific working process of the units and modules in the above-mentioned system can refer to the corresponding process in the aforementioned method embodiment, and will not be repeated here.

[0201] An embodiment of the present application further provides a storage medium, which is a computer-readable storage program. The computer-readable storage program stores a computer program. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps in the above-mentioned method embodiments can be implemented.

[0202] An embodiment of the present application provides a computer program product. When the computer program product is run on a mobile terminal, the mobile terminal can implement the steps in the above-mentioned various method embodiments when executing the computer program product.

[0203] If the integrated unit is implemented as a software functional unit and sold or used as a standalone product, it can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, the present application can implement all or part of the process steps in the above-mentioned method embodiments by using a computer program to instruct the relevant hardware. The computer program can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. When executed by a processor, the computer program can implement the steps of each of the above-mentioned method embodiments. The computer program includes computer program code, which can be in source code form, object code form, executable file, or some intermediate form. The computer-readable medium can include at least: any entity or device capable of carrying computer program code to a camera / terminal device, recording medium, computer memory, read-only memory (ROM), random access memory (RAM), electric carrier signals, telecommunication signals, and software distribution media. Examples include USB flash drives, removable hard drives, magnetic disks, or optical disks. In some jurisdictions, based on legislation and patent practice, computer-readable media cannot be electric carrier signals or telecommunication signals.

[0204] In the above embodiments, the description of each embodiment has its own focus. For parts that are not described or recorded in detail in a certain embodiment, reference can be made to the relevant description of other embodiments.

[0205] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the units and algorithm steps of each example described in conjunction with the embodiments disclosed herein can be implemented in electronic hardware, or a combination of computer software and electronic hardware. Whether these functions are performed in hardware or software depends on the specific application and design constraints of the technical solution. Professional and technical personnel can use different methods to implement the described functions for each specific application, but such implementation should not be considered beyond the scope of this application.

[0206] In the embodiments provided in this application, it should be understood that the disclosed devices / network equipment and methods can be implemented in other ways. For example, the device / network equipment embodiments described above are merely illustrative. For example, the division of the modules or units is merely a logical function division. In actual implementation, there may be other division methods, such as multiple units or components can be combined or integrated into another system, or some features can be ignored or not executed. Another point is that the mutual coupling or direct coupling or communication connection shown or discussed can be through some interfaces, indirect coupling or communication connection of devices or units, which can be electrical, mechanical or other forms.

[0207] The units described as separate components may or may not be physically separate, and the components shown as units may or may not be physical units, that is, they may be located in one place or distributed across multiple network units. Some or all of these units may be selected to achieve the purpose of this embodiment according to actual needs.

[0208] The above-described embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present application, rather than to limit them. Although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or make equivalent replacements for some of the technical features therein. These modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the various embodiments of the present application, and should all be included in the scope of protection of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for calculating the failure probability of seepage damage in earth-rockfill dams, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: S1. Construct a standardized model of earth-rock dam anti-seepage body; S2. Calculating the impermeability system defect coefficient of the earth-rockfill dam to be analyzed based on the standardized model of the earth-rockfill dam impermeability body, wherein the impermeability system defect coefficient is the ratio of the apparent permeability coefficient to the test value of the permeability coefficient, and the apparent permeability coefficient is the ratio of the actual seepage rate to the theoretical seepage rate; S3. Using the first seepage failure probability and the anti-seepage system defect coefficient of multiple earth-rockfill dams of the same type as statistical samples, an engineering analogy evaluation method is used to obtain a functional relationship between the first seepage failure probability and the anti-seepage system defect coefficient, and the first seepage failure probability of the earth-rockfill dam to be analyzed is calculated based on the functional relationship; S4. Calculate a baseline failure probability of the earth-rock dam to be analyzed based on the construction quality and operating status of the earth-rock dam to be analyzed, and obtain a second seepage failure probability based on the Bayesian method according to the baseline failure probability; S5. Perform a logarithmic weighted average of the first penetration damage failure probability and the second penetration damage failure probability to obtain a comprehensive penetration damage failure probability.

2. The method for calculating the failure probability of seepage damage in earth-rock dams according to claim 1, wherein: Step S1 includes the following steps: In the Cartesian rectangular coordinate system, a standardized model of the earth-rock dam anti-seepage body is constructed, in which the direction from the left bank to the right bank along the dam axis is taken as the x The positive direction of the coordinate is from upstream to downstream along the river. y The positive direction of the coordinate is from low altitude to high altitude along the vertical direction z The positive direction of the coordinate is defined as the tangent direction of the anti-seepage body from bottom to top as the positive direction of the length of the anti-seepage body. The corresponding coordinate is l .

3. The method for calculating the failure probability of seepage damage in earth-rock dams according to claim 2, characterized in that: Step S2 includes the following steps: Based on the standardized model of the earth-rock dam anti-seepage body, the seepage volume of the anti-seepage body at the height z and length l is calculated according to Darcy's law. dQ ; Seepage rate of the anti-seepage body along its length dQ Perform integration to obtain the theoretical seepage capacity of the earth-rock dam anti-seepage body; A water measuring weir is set up at the downstream toe of the earth-rock dam, and a seepage flow measurement device is installed inside the water measuring weir to measure the actual seepage flow of the earth-rock dam; Calculating an apparent permeability coefficient, wherein the apparent permeability coefficient is a ratio of the actual permeability to the theoretical permeability; The permeability coefficient test value is obtained through a permeability coefficient test; The defect coefficient of the anti-seepage system is calculated, where the defect coefficient of the anti-seepage system is the ratio of the apparent permeability coefficient to the test value of the permeability coefficient.

4. The method for calculating the failure probability of seepage damage in earth-rock dams according to claim 1, wherein: The expectation of the second penetration failure probability is: in, x For analysis period T The number of dam failures in a period of time, if the dam is operating safely during the corresponding period, then the number of dam failures in this period of time x is a fixed value, x =0, Is a parameter, equal to the actual duration of experience , is the parameter, is the baseline failure probability.

5. The method for calculating the failure probability of seepage damage in earth-rock dams according to claim 1, wherein: The first seepage failure probability of the earth-rock dam is fitted with the cumulative probability curve of the normal distribution. When the earth-rock dam to be analyzed is a concrete face dam, the functional relationship between the first seepage failure probability and the defect coefficient of the anti-seepage system is: in, is the first penetration failure probability, R is the defect coefficient of the anti-seepage system.

6. The method for calculating the failure probability of seepage damage in earth-rock dams according to claim 1, wherein: If the earth-rock dam is a new construction project, step S4 includes the following steps: Calculating baseline failure probability : ,in, is the probability of seepage failure, which is calculated based on the safety level of the earth-rock dam. It is a correction factor, which is determined by the construction quality, operation status or expert evaluation during the construction period; The failure probability of initial penetration damage is taken as the prior probability; Construct a likelihood function that follows a Poisson distribution; The posterior probability is calculated based on the prior probability and the likelihood function, and the posterior probability is the second penetration damage failure probability.

7. The method for calculating the failure probability of seepage damage in earth-rock dams according to claim 1, wherein: Comprehensive penetration failure probability Calculate according to the following formula: in, is the second penetration failure probability, is the first penetration failure probability, is the credibility coefficient of the monitoring data, .

8. The method for calculating the failure probability of seepage damage in earth-rock dams according to claim 1, wherein: The average annual seepage failure probability of earth-rock dams within a certain analysis period is Expressed as: in, is the start time of the analysis period, The end time of the analysis period.

9. A terminal device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein: When the processor executes the computer program, the method for calculating the failure probability of seepage damage of an earth-rock dam according to any one of claims 1 to 8 is implemented.

10. A storage medium storing a computer program, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the method for calculating the failure probability of seepage damage of an earth-rock dam according to any one of claims 1 to 8 is implemented.

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