Nuclear facility risk assessment method, management method, device and equipment

Abstract

The invention discloses a nuclear facility risk assessment method, management method, device and equipment. The nuclear facility risk assessment method comprises the following steps: acquiring nuclear material parameters and N dimensions of a nuclear facility; performing loss calculation of N dimensions according to the nuclear material parameters to obtain N loss values in one-to-one correspondence with the N dimensions; for each dimension in the N dimensions, evaluating the corresponding loss value and the membership degree of each evaluation grade in the M evaluation grades to obtain M * N membership degrees; according to the M * N membership degrees, determining consequence factors of the risk scene event of the nuclear facility; and performing risk assessment on the nuclear facility according to the consequence factor to obtain a risk assessment result of the nuclear facility. The accuracy of nuclear facility risk assessment can be improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of data analysis, and in particular relates to a nuclear facility risk assessment method, management method, device and equipment. Background Art

[0002] In the physical protection system, the consequence factor is a data representation used to assess the magnitude of the possible consequences of the theft, illegal transfer of nuclear materials, or damage to nuclear facilities. It is one of the key indicators for physical protection risk analysis.

[0003] Currently, nuclear material physical protection consequence factors are typically assigned based on their intended use (e.g., weapons-grade or non-weapons-grade) and physical protection level (i.e., Level I, II, or III). However, existing consequence factor assignment methods treat nuclear materials with the same intended use and protection level as the same category and assign the same consequence factor. Furthermore, the basis for assigning consequence factors is primarily drawn from international research.

[0004] Therefore, the existing technology lacks precision in assigning consequence factors and the basis is unclear, resulting in low accuracy in risk assessment of nuclear facilities. Summary of the Invention

[0005] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a nuclear facility risk assessment method, management method, device and equipment in response to the above-mentioned deficiencies in the existing technology. The method can improve the accuracy of nuclear facility risk assessment by accurately determining consequence factors.

[0006] In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a nuclear facility risk assessment method, comprising:

[0007] Obtaining nuclear material parameters and N dimensions of the nuclear facility, where N is a positive integer;

[0008] Performing loss calculations in N dimensions based on the nuclear material parameters to obtain N loss values ​​corresponding to the N dimensions, wherein the loss values ​​represent the impact of a certain dimension that may be caused by a risk scenario event at the nuclear facility;

[0009] For each dimension in N dimensions, evaluate the membership of its corresponding loss value with each evaluation level in M ​​evaluation levels to obtain M*N memberships, where M is a positive integer;

[0010] determining, based on the M*N membership degrees, a consequence factor of a risk scenario event occurring at the nuclear facility;

[0011] A risk assessment is performed on the nuclear facility according to the consequence factors to obtain a risk assessment result of the nuclear facility.

[0012] Preferably, the N dimensions include human losses, environmental losses, social losses and economic losses, and the nuclear material parameters include the nuclide type, nuclide abundance and nuclide mass of the nuclear material.

[0013] The calculation of losses in N dimensions is performed according to the nuclear material parameters to obtain N loss values ​​corresponding to the N dimensions, specifically including:

[0014] The personnel loss value, environmental loss value, social loss value and economic loss value are calculated based on the nuclide type, nuclide abundance and nuclide mass.

[0015] Preferably, the calculating of the personnel loss value based on the nuclide type, nuclide abundance and nuclide mass specifically includes:

[0016] In a case where the risk scenario event is a nuclear material theft event and the stolen nuclear material meets the demand for nuclear weapons manufacturing, the personnel loss value is determined to be a first preset value.

[0017] Preferably, the personnel loss value is calculated based on the nuclide type, nuclide abundance and nuclide mass, specifically including:

[0018] In the case where the risk scenario event is a nuclear material theft event and the stolen nuclear materials do not meet the requirements for nuclear weapon manufacturing, or the risk scenario event is not a nuclear material theft event, the personnel loss value is calculated using the following formula (1):

[0019] u1=0.4348ΓQm (1)

[0020] Wherein, u1 is the personnel loss value, Γ is the exposure rate constant of the nuclide, Q is the specific activity of the nuclide, and m is the mass of the nuclide.

[0021] Preferably, the environmental loss value is calculated based on the nuclide type, nuclide abundance and nuclide mass, specifically including:

[0022] When the risk scenario event is a nuclear material theft event and the stolen nuclear material meets the demand for nuclear weapon manufacturing, the environmental loss value is determined to be a second preset value.

[0023] Preferably, the environmental loss value is calculated based on the nuclide type, nuclide abundance and nuclide mass, specifically including:

[0024] In the case where the risk scenario event is a nuclear material theft event and the stolen nuclear materials do not meet the requirements for nuclear weapon manufacturing, or the risk scenario event is not a nuclear material theft event, the environmental loss value is calculated using the following formula (2):

[0025] u2=0.9522ΓQm (2)

[0026] Wherein, u2 is the environmental loss value, Γ is the exposure rate constant of the nuclide, Q is the specific activity of the nuclide, and m is the mass of the nuclide.

[0027] Preferably, for each dimension in the N dimensions, evaluating the membership of the corresponding loss value with each evaluation level in the M evaluation levels to obtain M*N memberships specifically includes:

[0028] For each dimension in the N dimensions, create a membership function associated with each evaluation level in the M evaluation levels to obtain an evaluation matrix;

[0029] A membership matrix is ​​calculated based on the N loss values ​​and the evaluation matrix, where the membership matrix includes the M*N memberships.

[0030] Preferably, N=4, M=6, and the evaluation matrix is ​​expressed as the following expression (3):

[0031]

[0032] Among them, R is the evaluation matrix, the rows of the matrix represent the dimensions, the columns of the matrix represent the evaluation levels, r NN Represents the membership function corresponding to the dimension and evaluation level.

[0033] Preferably, the membership function is a trapezoidal distribution function.

[0034] Preferably, determining the consequence factors of the risk scenario event occurring in the nuclear facility based on the M*N membership degrees specifically includes:

[0035] Determine the weight matrix of the N dimensions using the analytic hierarchy process;

[0036] Multiplying the weight matrix by the membership matrix to obtain a comprehensive membership matrix, wherein the comprehensive membership matrix includes the comprehensive membership of each evaluation level in the M evaluation levels;

[0037] According to the comprehensive membership degree and preset value of each evaluation level in the M evaluation levels, the consequence factor of the risk scenario event occurring in the nuclear facility is determined.

[0038] In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a nuclear facility risk assessment device, comprising:

[0039] an acquisition module, configured to acquire nuclear material parameters and N dimensions of the nuclear facility, where N is a positive integer;

[0040] a first assessment module, connected to the acquisition module, configured to calculate losses in N dimensions based on the nuclear material parameters, and obtain N loss values ​​corresponding to the N dimensions, wherein the loss values ​​represent the impact of a certain dimension that may be caused by a risk scenario event on the nuclear facility;

[0041] a second evaluation module, connected to the first evaluation module, for evaluating, for each of the N dimensions, the corresponding loss value and the membership of each of the M evaluation levels, to obtain M*N memberships, where M is a positive integer;

[0042] a third assessment module, connected to the second assessment module, for determining the consequence factors of a risk scenario event occurring in the nuclear facility based on the M*N membership degrees;

[0043] The fourth assessment module is connected to the third assessment module and is used to perform risk assessment on the nuclear facility according to the consequence factors to obtain a risk assessment result of the nuclear facility.

[0044] In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a nuclear facility management method, comprising:

[0045] The nuclear facility risk assessment method according to the first aspect obtains a risk assessment result of the nuclear facility;

[0046] Develop management strategies based on the risk assessment results;

[0047] The nuclear facility is managed according to the management strategy.

[0048] In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a nuclear facility risk assessment device, the device comprising: a processor and a memory storing computer program instructions;

[0049] When the processor executes the computer program instructions, the nuclear facility risk assessment method as shown in the first aspect is implemented.

[0050] The nuclear facility risk assessment method of this invention achieves comprehensive and accurate quantification of potential risks at nuclear facilities through multi-dimensional loss value calculation and membership assessment. By introducing multiple assessment dimensions and rating levels, the precision of consequence factor calculation is enhanced, the scientific nature and transparency of the basis for assigning values ​​are strengthened, and the accuracy of nuclear facility risk assessment is thereby improved. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0051] Figure 1 : A flow chart of a nuclear facility risk assessment method provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0052] Figure 2 : A flow chart of another nuclear facility risk assessment method provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0053] Figure 3 : A structural diagram of a nuclear facility risk assessment device provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0054] Figure 4 : A structural diagram of a nuclear facility management strategy formation system provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0055] Figure 5 : A structural diagram of a device provided in an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0056] In order to enable those skilled in the art to better understand the technical solution of the present invention, the present invention is further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0057] It should be noted that, in this document, relational terms such as first and second, etc., are used only to distinguish one entity or operation from another entity or operation, and do not necessarily require or imply any actual relationship or order between these entities or operations. Moreover, the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variants thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that a process, method, article, or device comprising a series of elements includes not only those elements, but also other elements not explicitly listed, or elements inherent to such process, method, article, or device. In the absence of further limitations, the elements defined by the phrase "comprising..." do not exclude the presence of other identical elements in the process, method, article, or device comprising the elements.

[0058] In the physical protection system, the consequence factor is a data representation used to assess the magnitude of the possible consequences of the theft, illegal transfer of nuclear materials, or damage to nuclear facilities. It is one of the key indicators for physical protection risk analysis.

[0059] To ensure the quality of physical protection system design, operation, and upgrades, analysis and assessment of the system's ability to effectively address design basis threats (DBTs) are required at every stage of the system—design, final acceptance, system operation, and system upgrade. This process of analyzing and assessing the system's ability to achieve its intended design objectives through both qualitative and quantitative methods is known as physical protection system evaluation.

[0060] In the evaluation of physical protection systems, a key quantitative indicator is the calculation of the risk value for nuclear materials and nuclear facilities. This risk value takes into account the combined risk of a crime committed against radioactive nuclear materials and the physical protection system's ability to deter such a crime. According to the standard "Guidelines for the Evaluation of Physical Protection Systems for Military Nuclear Materials" (GJB 5839-2006), the risk value calculation formula is as follows:

[0061] R 外=P G ×(1-P I ×P N )×C

[0062] R 内 =P G ×(1-P DI )×C

[0063] R represents the risk value, which refers to the risk value posed to society by theft or vandalism. The range is between 0 and 1.0, with 0 indicating no risk and 1.0 indicating a high risk. 外 and R 内 They represent the risk values ​​of external enemies and internal enemies committing crimes respectively.

[0064] P G Indicates the probability of committing a crime. The range is between 0 and 1.0, with 0 indicating that the crime is unlikely and 1.0 indicating that the crime is certain.

[0065] P I This represents the interception probability, which is the probability that the external enemy will be intercepted in time by the reaction force. It ranges from 0 to 1.0, where 0 means the external enemy will not be intercepted, and 1.0 means the external enemy will definitely be intercepted.

[0066] P N The probability of deterrence is the probability that the reaction force will defeat the external enemy. It ranges from 0 to 1.0, with 0 indicating that the reaction force cannot defeat the external enemy and 1.0 indicating that the reaction force will definitely defeat the external enemy.

[0067] P DI The insider detection probability refers to the probability that an insider theft will be detected. It ranges from 0 to 1.0, where 0 means that the insider theft cannot be detected, and 1.0 means that the insider theft is always detected.

[0068] C represents the consequence factor, which measures the potential social impact of a nuclear theft or sabotage case. It ranges from 0 to 1.0, with 0 indicating no social impact and 1.0 indicating a significant social impact.

[0069] The formula shows that when evaluating a nuclear material physical protection system, the smaller the risk value R, the lower the risk; Furthermore, the risk value R is directly proportional to the consequence factor C. Therefore, the magnitude of the consequence factor has a significant impact on the evaluation results of the nuclear material physical protection system, and the accuracy of the consequence factor directly affects the accuracy of the physical protection system evaluation. Therefore, in order to more accurately measure the effectiveness, reliability, and risk mitigation capabilities of the physical protection system and promote the development of a more precise physical protection system evaluation system, it is essential to develop a more detailed and scientific calculation method for the consequence factor.

[0070] Furthermore, if theft or sabotage of nuclear materials actually occurs, to prevent the impact from escalating and spiraling out of control, relevant personnel will need to formulate reasonable and effective emergency response decisions based on the severity of the incident by studying consequence factors. Designing more reasonable and accurate consequence factor calculation methods can provide decision-makers with more scientific data support for analyzing the severity of an incident, predicting its impact, and deciding on response actions.

[0071] The "Guidelines for the Evaluation of Physical Protection Systems for Military Nuclear Materials" (GJB 5839-2006) uses consequence factors to quantify the potential societal impact of theft or sabotage of nuclear materials. These factors range from 0 to 1.0, with 0 indicating no impact and 1.0 indicating a significant impact. Table 1 shows the consequence factors for different levels of nuclear material.

[0072] Table 1 Consequence factors for different levels of nuclear materials

[0073]

[0074] As can be seen from the table, consequence factors are currently assigned based on the purpose of nuclear materials and the level of physical protection of nuclear materials: the consequence factors of weapons and weapons-grade nuclear materials are higher than those of nuclear materials for other purposes; the higher the level of physical protection of nuclear materials, the greater the consequence factors.

[0075] Currently, consequence factors are primarily assigned based on the purpose of nuclear materials and the level of physical protection they carry. This approach simply categorizes nuclear materials with the same purpose and level of physical protection into one category, with each type of nuclear material within that category assigned the same consequence factor. This classification approach presents two major problems.

[0076] (1) Low precision in the calculation of consequence factors

[0077] The current method for assigning consequence factors categorizes nuclear materials into weapons-grade and non-weapons-grade nuclear materials in terms of their use. In terms of physical protection levels, the current method categorizes nuclear materials into Level I, Level II, and Level III. Nuclear materials classified as the same category at different facilities may have significant variations in parameters such as nuclide type and mass. However, under the current calculation method, all are assigned the same consequence factor value. This clearly results in a lack of classification precision and large errors in the consequence factor assignment.

[0078] (2) The basis for assigning consequence factors is unclear

[0079] The existing consequence factor values ​​for each category of nuclear material in my country are derived from relevant international research on the consequences of nuclear incidents. Firstly, the consequence factor values ​​corresponding to nuclear materials with different physical protection levels are designed based on the development of the nuclear industry, design basis threats, and nuclear security status abroad. These values ​​differ significantly from the domestic social environment and development, making their direct application difficult to analyze. Secondly, the existing consequence factor assignment method assigns values ​​to different categories of nuclear materials in an arithmetic progression, clearly relying on qualitative analysis and lacking more convincing quantitative analysis methods.

[0080] Example 1:

[0081] Based on the above research, in order to solve the above technical problems, such as Figure 1 As shown, this embodiment provides a nuclear facility risk assessment method including the following steps 101 to 105.

[0082] Step 101: Obtain the nuclear material parameters and N dimensions of the nuclear facility.

[0083] Wherein, N is a positive integer.

[0084] Specifically, first, detailed parameter information on all nuclear materials in nuclear facilities needs to be collected. Nuclear material parameters can include nuclide type, nuclide mass, radioactivity level, form (solid, liquid, gaseous), storage conditions, etc. Furthermore, multiple dimensions (N dimensions) must be determined for risk assessment.

[0085] N dimensions can be determined based on different risk scenarios and events that may occur at nuclear facilities. Dimensions may include environmental impact, personnel health, safety, economic losses, social impact, and more. Each dimension represents an independent assessment perspective, comprehensively reflecting the potential impact of nuclear facilities under different risk scenarios.

[0086] Step 102: Calculate the losses in N dimensions based on the nuclear material parameters to obtain N loss values ​​corresponding to the N dimensions.

[0087] Among them, the loss value represents the impact of a certain dimension that may be caused by a nuclear facility when a risk scenario event occurs.

[0088] Taking nuclear facilities as an example, the risk scenario events that may occur in nuclear facilities may include radioactive dispersion events, attack events, nuclear explosion events, etc.

[0089] Risk scenario events can be determined by manually identifying likely events for target facilities based on expert experience and historical data, or by generating possible events for various facilities through machine model prediction. This application does not limit the specific method for obtaining risk scenario events for target facilities.

[0090] Specifically, after obtaining nuclear material parameters and assessment dimensions, a loss assessment is performed for each dimension using corresponding calculation models or formulas under specific risk scenarios. For example, for the environmental impact dimension, the potential range and concentration of radioactivity can be calculated; for the human health dimension, the radiation dose and potential health damage can be assessed. By calculating specific loss values ​​corresponding to each assessment dimension, the loss values ​​quantify the potential impact of each dimension under a specific risk scenario.

[0091] Step 103: For each dimension in the N dimensions, evaluate the membership between the corresponding loss value and each evaluation level in the M evaluation levels to obtain M*N memberships, where M is a positive integer.

[0092] Specifically, after obtaining the loss value of each dimension, the loss value of each dimension needs to be evaluated with the pre-defined M evaluation levels using fuzzy membership.

[0093] Evaluation levels can be set based on actual application requirements, for example, low, medium, and high, with each level corresponding to a certain range of losses. Using fuzzy logic or other membership functions, each loss value is mapped to a corresponding membership degree, indicating its degree of membership in each evaluation level. For example, a loss value may have a high membership degree in the "high" level and a low membership degree in the "low" level. Ultimately, for each of the N dimensions, M membership degrees are generated, resulting in a total of M × N membership values.

[0094] Step 104: Determine the consequence factors of the risk scenario event occurring in the nuclear facility based on the M*N membership degrees.

[0095] All membership values ​​are taken into consideration and an overall consequence factor is calculated by combining the membership of each dimension and each evaluation level through weighted average, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation or other multidimensional data fusion methods.

[0096] The consequence factor ranges from 0 to 1.0 and represents the overall impact that a nuclear facility could have on society under a specific risk scenario. Optionally, the consequence factor may take into account the importance weighting of each dimension to ensure that key dimensions have a greater impact on the final outcome.

[0097] Step 105: Perform risk assessment on the nuclear facility based on the consequence factors to obtain a risk assessment result of the nuclear facility.

[0098] Specifically, the identified consequence factors are used and combined with the risk assessment framework to conduct a comprehensive risk assessment.

[0099] In some embodiments, consequence factors can be combined with probability factors to produce an overall risk assessment of a nuclear facility using a risk matrix or other assessment tools. This assessment can be used to formulate safety measures, optimize resource allocation, and improve emergency response strategies, ensuring scientific and systematic safety management of nuclear facilities.

[0100] This embodiment achieves comprehensive and accurate quantification of potential risks to nuclear facilities through multi-dimensional loss calculation and membership assessment. By introducing multiple assessment dimensions and rating levels, the precision of consequence factor calculation is enhanced, the scientific nature and transparency of the basis for assigning values ​​are strengthened, and the accuracy of nuclear facility risk assessment is improved.

[0101] Optionally, the N dimensions include human losses, environmental losses, social losses, and economic losses, and the nuclear material parameters include the nuclide type, nuclide abundance, and nuclide quality of the nuclear material. The above S102 may specifically include:

[0102] The human loss value, environmental loss value, social loss value and economic loss value are calculated based on the nuclide type, nuclide abundance and nuclide mass.

[0103] Among them, the types of nuclides include all types of nuclides existing in nuclear facilities, such as uranium-235, plutonium-239, etc.

[0104] Nuclide abundance: measuring or obtaining the abundance of each nuclide in the nuclear material, that is, the percentage or proportion of each nuclide.

[0105] Nuclide mass: Calculate the actual mass of each nuclide, usually in grams (g) or kilograms (kg).

[0106] The N dimensions are specifically:

[0107] Human losses: Assess the potential impact of a nuclear accident on human health and life.

[0108] Environmental losses: Assess the possible impact of a nuclear accident on the ecological environment (air, water, soil, etc.).

[0109] Social losses: Assessing the impact of nuclear accidents on social stability and public safety.

[0110] Economic losses: Assess the direct and indirect economic losses that may result from a nuclear accident.

[0111] In this embodiment, by refining the loss dimensions and clarifying the application of nuclear material parameters, the pertinence and accuracy of loss calculation are improved, making the risk assessment more comprehensive and in-depth.

[0112] Optionally, the above-mentioned calculation of the personnel loss value based on the nuclide type, nuclide abundance, and nuclide mass may specifically include:

[0113] When the risk scenario event is a nuclear material theft event and the stolen nuclear material meets the demand for nuclear weapons manufacturing, the personnel loss value is determined to be a first preset value.

[0114] Among them, the first preset value is determined based on historical risk scenario events and is used to characterize the degree of personnel loss.

[0115] Specifically, the risk scenario is first determined to determine whether the risk scenario event involves the theft of nuclear materials and whether the stolen nuclear materials meet the requirements for nuclear weapons manufacturing. If these conditions are met, i.e., the risk scenario is a high-risk event, the personnel loss value is directly set to a first preset value.

[0116] The first preset value can be set according to the most serious personnel loss situation, reflecting the importance attached to high-risk events.

[0117] In one example, the first preset value represents the degree of human loss under a specific risk scenario (e.g., nuclear material theft). It can be determined by the following steps:

[0118] (1) Data collection. Historical archives can be used to search for incident records related to nuclear material theft, with particular attention paid to data on personnel losses, including direct casualties and injuries. (2) Statistical analysis. Statistical analysis is performed on the collected data, and indicators such as the mean and standard deviation of personnel losses are calculated to determine a representative preset value. This can help identify trends and the range of losses in different incidents. (3) Expert assessment. Experts in the fields of nuclear safety, risk management, and health and safety are invited to combine their experience and expertise to estimate the preset value corresponding to personnel losses under specific conditions. This evaluation takes into account possible data deficiencies and situational specificity. (4) Situational division. Further subdivide the scenario based on the type of nuclide, theft method, etc., and set different first preset values ​​for different types of nuclear material theft incidents to improve the accuracy of the assessment. (5) Regular update. Ensure that the first preset value is reviewed and updated regularly to reflect the latest risk assessment results and relevant historical events to ensure the timeliness and reliability of nuclear facility risk assessment.

[0119] This embodiment simplifies the calculation process by directly applying preset values ​​in specific high-risk scenarios, ensuring rapid assessment of personnel loss risk in emergency situations. This increases awareness of nuclear weapon-related risks and facilitates timely response measures to ensure personnel safety.

[0120] Optionally, the above calculation based on nuclide type, nuclide abundance and nuclide mass to obtain the personnel loss value specifically includes:

[0121] When the risk scenario event is the theft of nuclear materials and the stolen nuclear materials do not meet the requirements for nuclear weapons manufacturing, or when the risk scenario event is not the theft of nuclear materials, the personnel loss value is calculated using the following formula (1):

[0122] u1=0.4348ΓQm (1)

[0123] Where u1 is the personnel loss value, Γ is the nuclide exposure rate constant, Q is the specific activity of the nuclide, and m is the nuclide mass. Specifically, when the risk scenario event is the theft of nuclear materials but the stolen nuclear materials do not meet the requirements for nuclear weapons manufacturing, or when the risk scenario event is not the theft of nuclear materials, a specific calculation is required. The above formula (1) combines the radiation characteristics and quantity of the nuclide to assess the degree of harm that radiation may cause to personnel, thereby obtaining an estimated value for personnel loss.

[0124] In this embodiment, quantitative calculations can accurately assess human losses under general risk scenarios, taking into account the specific characteristics of nuclear materials and improving the reliability of the assessment.

[0125] Optionally, the environmental loss value calculated based on the nuclide type, nuclide abundance, and nuclide mass specifically includes:

[0126] When the risk scenario event is a nuclear material theft event and the stolen nuclear material meets the demand for nuclear weapons manufacturing, the environmental loss value is determined to be a second preset value.

[0127] Among them, the second preset value is determined based on historical risk scenario events and is used to characterize the degree of environmental loss.

[0128] Specifically, the system first determines whether the risk scenario event involves the theft of nuclear materials and whether the stolen nuclear materials meet the requirements for nuclear weapons manufacturing. If so, the environmental loss value is directly set to the second preset value, which represents the most severe environmental impact.

[0129] In this embodiment, environmental loss values ​​are directly set in high-risk scenarios to ensure a rapid and effective assessment process. This increases the importance of preventing and responding to potential environmental disasters, helping relevant departments to quickly implement environmental protection measures and mitigate potential environmental damage.

[0130] In one example, the second preset value may be determined by the following steps:

[0131] (1) Data collection: Collect environmental loss data related to nuclear material theft from past accident records, environmental monitoring reports, and scientific research literature. This includes the impact on the environment after the nuclear material leak, such as changes in soil, water, and air quality. (2) Statistical analysis: Conduct statistical analysis on the collected data and calculate indicators such as the mean value and standard deviation of environmental loss. In particular, pay attention to the specific losses caused by different types of nuclides in the environment to establish a baseline preset value. (3) Layered classification: According to different nuclide types, abundances, and environmental impacts, historical cases are layered and classified to develop different environmental loss preset values. This can improve the accuracy and pertinence of the assessment. (4) Expert consultation: Invite experts in the fields of environmental science and nuclear safety for consultation to help assess the scope of environmental loss in specific situations, so as to more accurately determine the second preset value. (5) Regular update: Ensure that this preset value is reviewed and updated regularly to reflect the latest monitoring data and risk assessment results, so that the assessment method always adapts to the actual situation.

[0132] Optionally, the environmental loss value calculated based on the nuclide type, nuclide abundance, and nuclide mass may further include:

[0133] When the risk scenario event is the theft of nuclear materials and the stolen nuclear materials do not meet the requirements for nuclear weapons manufacturing, or when the risk scenario event is not the theft of nuclear materials, the environmental loss value is calculated using the following formula (2):

[0134] u2=0.9522ΓQm (2)

[0135] Where u2 is the environmental loss value, Γ is the exposure rate constant of the nuclide, Q is the specific activity of the nuclide, and m is the mass of the nuclide.

[0136] Specifically, when the risk scenario event is a nuclear material theft incident but the stolen nuclear materials do not meet the requirements for nuclear weapons manufacturing, or when the risk scenario event is not a nuclear material theft incident, it is necessary to specifically calculate the environmental loss value. Formula (2) comprehensively considers the radiation characteristics and quantity of the nuclides, assesses the degree of harm that radiation may cause to the environment, and obtains the environmental loss value.

[0137] In this embodiment, through precise calculation, the environmental losses under general risk scenarios can be accurately assessed, making the environmental risk assessment more scientific and accurate, helping to formulate effective environmental protection strategies and reduce the environmental risks that may be brought about by nuclear materials.

[0138] It should be noted that the above formulas (1) and (2) are based on the formulas of radiation dose caused by nuclear materials and distance. They are functions of the respective variables of the area where the radiation dose of nuclear materials exceeds the normal limit specified in standard GB 4792, and are obtained after unit conversion and numerical combination.

[0139] In some embodiments, the social loss value can be calculated using the following formula (4):

[0140] u3=w1×P+w2×M+w3×S (4)

[0141] Among them, P is the public impact factor, M is the media impact factor, S is the social stability impact factor, and w1, w2, and w3 are weight coefficients.

[0142] Alternatively, the calculation results of my country's current nuclear material consequence factors can be directly used to quantify social losses.

[0143] In some embodiments, the economic loss value can be calculated using the following formula (5):

[0144] u4=D+I+R (5)

[0145] Among them, D is direct economic loss, I is indirect economic loss, and R is recovery cost.

[0146] Alternatively, economic losses can be measured directly using the price of the lost or destroyed nuclear material itself.

[0147] Optionally, the above S103 specifically includes:

[0148] For each dimension in the N dimensions, create a membership function associated with each evaluation level in the M evaluation levels to obtain an evaluation matrix;

[0149] According to the N loss values ​​and the evaluation matrix, a membership matrix is ​​calculated, and the membership matrix includes M*N memberships.

[0150] Specifically, a membership function is first established between the loss value in each dimension and each evaluation level. The membership function is used to describe the degree of membership of the loss value to different evaluation levels. Membership functions in fuzzy mathematics can be used, such as trapezoidal functions and trigonometric functions.

[0151] Then, using the above membership function, construct the evaluation matrix R. The rows of the matrix represent different dimensions, the columns represent different evaluation levels, and the elements r in the matrix ij Represents the membership function of the loss value of the i-th dimension to the j-th evaluation level, where i≤N, j≤M.

[0152] Finally, based on the N loss values ​​and the membership function in the evaluation matrix, the membership matrix is ​​calculated. This matrix includes M×N memberships, which fully reflects the membership degree of each loss value under different evaluation levels.

[0153] In this embodiment, by creating a membership function and an evaluation matrix, the relationship between the loss value and the evaluation level is quantified, thereby improving the accuracy and objectivity of the risk assessment.

[0154] Alternatively, let N=4, M=6, then the expression of the evaluation matrix is ​​the following expression (3):

[0155]

[0156] Among them, R is the evaluation matrix, the rows of the matrix represent the dimensions, the columns of the matrix represent the evaluation levels, and rij represents the membership function of the loss value of the i-th dimension to the j-th evaluation level, i≤N, j≤M.

[0157] Specifically, N can be set to 4 dimensions, such as human losses, environmental losses, social losses, and economic losses. M can be set to 6 evaluation levels to represent different levels of risk. The element r in the matrix ij Represents the membership function of the loss value of the i-th dimension to the j-th evaluation level, where i≤N, j≤M.

[0158] Through the evaluation matrix, the degree of membership of the loss value of each dimension under different evaluation levels can be systematically represented.

[0159] In this embodiment, the structure and elements of the evaluation matrix are clarified, and the risk assessment method is standardized. Through the standardized matrix expression, the uniformity and repeatability of the assessment process are promoted, and the calculation efficiency and reliability of the results are improved.

[0160] Optionally, the membership function is a trapezoidal distribution function.

[0161] The trapezoidal distribution function is used to describe the relationship between continuous variables and membership degrees.

[0162] For each dimension and evaluation level, appropriate function parameter values ​​are set so that the membership function accurately reflects the degree of membership of the loss value to that evaluation level. The trapezoidal function flexibly represents the growth and decline of membership and is suitable for describing the changes in loss values ​​under different thresholds. By adjusting the parameters, it can adapt to different types of loss value distributions and risk assessment needs.

[0163] In this embodiment, a trapezoidal distribution function is used as the membership function, which makes the calculation of membership continuous and smooth, avoids the evaluation error caused by sudden changes, improves the adaptability of the model to actual conditions, and ensures the accuracy and credibility of the evaluation results.

[0164] Optionally, the above S104 may specifically include:

[0165] The analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the weight matrix of N dimensions;

[0166] Multiplying the weight matrix by the membership matrix to obtain a comprehensive membership matrix, which includes the comprehensive membership of each evaluation level in the M evaluation levels;

[0167] According to the comprehensive membership and preset value of each evaluation level in M ​​evaluation levels, the consequence factors of risk scenario events occurring in nuclear facilities are determined.

[0168] Specifically, the first step is to determine the weight matrix A for each dimension. Using the analytic hierarchy process, based on expert opinions and actual conditions, the weights of N dimensions are determined. The matrix form is: A = [a1, a2, a3, a4].

[0169] The second step is to multiply the weight matrix W by the membership matrix R to obtain the comprehensive membership matrix B: B = W × R.

[0170] The third step is to set a preset value for each evaluation level, such as a risk index or score. The comprehensive membership matrix B is combined with the preset value to calculate the consequence factors of risk scenario events occurring at the nuclear facility.

[0171] In this example, the dimensional weights are determined using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), fully accounting for the differences in importance across dimensions and making the assessment results more scientific. Matrix operations improve computational efficiency, and the acquisition of a comprehensive membership matrix makes the calculation of consequence factors more accurate, providing a quantitative basis for nuclear facility risk assessment.

[0172] In order to facilitate the understanding of the nuclear facility risk assessment method provided in this embodiment, a practical application description of the above method is provided here. Figure 2 For details, see the following example:

[0173] Step 1: Input nuclear material parameters.

[0174] Determine the nuclear material parameters that need to be input, including nuclide type, nuclide abundance, and nuclide mass.

[0175] In this step, you should enter the specific values ​​for three parameters: nuclide type, nuclide abundance, and nuclide mass. The nuclide type should be specific to a radioactive isotope, such as plutonium-239, uranium-235, and uranium-233. The nuclide abundance refers to the mass percentage of the isotope in the nuclear material compared to all other isotopes of the element. The nuclide mass refers to the mass of the isotope in the nuclear material.

[0176] The potential hazard of nuclear materials is directly dependent on their nuclide type, abundance, and mass. These parameters determine their radioactive characteristics, fission properties, and the risk of improper use. Accurately inputting key nuclear material parameters provides a reliable data foundation for subsequent risk assessments, improving the accuracy of consequence factor calculations and avoiding assessment errors caused by rough data.

[0177] Step 2: Calculate the numerical values ​​of four types of losses (equivalent to the calculation of losses in N dimensions based on the nuclear material parameters above).

[0178] According to the estimation formulas for the four types of losses, namely, personnel losses, environmental losses, social losses, and economic losses, the parameters such as the type of nuclides, nuclides abundance, and nuclides mass of the nuclear materials are input into the calculation to obtain the four types of loss values ​​U = {u1, u2, u3, u4} in the consequence factor evaluation system indicator set.

[0179] The details are as follows:

[0180] a) Loss of life

[0181] This method uses the number of casualties that could result from the loss or destruction of nuclear materials to measure human loss. If the stolen nuclear material is theoretically sufficient to manufacture a nuclear weapon, a very large human loss value is assigned, such as 70,000. For other situations, the human loss value is calculated based on the formula for calculating the radiation dose of nuclear material to the human body. The number of people in the area where the radiation dose exceeds the human health limit due to the loss or destruction of nuclear material is calculated as the human loss value. This method provides an example calculation formula:

[0182] u1=0.4348ΓQm (1)

[0183] Where u1 is the loss of personnel; Γ and Q are the exposure rate constant and specific activity, respectively. For a certain nuclide, their values ​​are constants; and m is the nuclide mass.

[0184] b) Environmental damage

[0185] This method uses the area of ​​radiation dose that may exceed the standard due to the loss or destruction of nuclear materials to measure environmental damage. If the stolen nuclear materials are theoretically sufficient to manufacture nuclear weapons, the environmental damage is directly assigned a very large value, for example, 50 km 2 For other situations, the radiation dose calculation formula for nuclear materials to the human body is used to calculate the area where the radiation dose exceeds the normal limit specified in standard GB 4792 due to the loss or destruction of nuclear materials. This is used as the environmental loss value. The calculation formula example given in this method is:

[0186] u2=0.9522ΓQm (2)

[0187] Where u2 is the environmental loss; Γ and Q are the irradiation rate constant and specific activity, respectively. For a certain nuclide, their values ​​are constants; and m is the nuclide mass.

[0188] c) Social losses

[0189] This method uses social losses to measure the impact of nuclear material theft or sabotage on public opinion and the nation's image, yielding the social loss u3. For example, the current calculation results of nuclear material consequence factors in my country can be used to quantify social losses.

[0190] d) Economic losses

[0191] This method uses the price of the lost or destroyed nuclear material itself to measure the economic loss u4.

[0192] Specifically, economic losses can be calculated based on the sales price of the lost nuclear material itself, with data provided by the affected entity. Because the sales price of nuclear materials fluctuates across different entities and over time, different methods are needed to determine economic losses based on actual circumstances.

[0193] Categorizing consequences into four categories—personnel, environmental, social, and economic—enables a comprehensive reflection of the potential impacts of nuclear material incidents. Using a calculation formula tailored to actual circumstances, the physical properties of nuclear materials are converted into tangible loss values. This overcomes the crudeness of the traditional method's consequence factor assignments, improving the precision of the assessment and enabling a more accurate reflection of the risk levels of different nuclear materials.

[0194] In this example, suppose a nuclear facility stores uranium-235. In a nuclear material theft incident, 100 grams of uranium-235 are lost. Assume the current market price of uranium-235 is $1,000 per gram. The economic loss, u4, is calculated as follows:

[0195] u4 = amount of nuclear material lost × unit price

[0196] =100 grams × $1,000 / gram = $100,000.

[0197] Step 3: Calculate the weights of the four types of losses (i.e., use the hierarchical analysis method to determine the weight matrix of N dimensions).

[0198] The indicator weight matrix A of the four types of losses is designed using the hierarchical analysis method.

[0199] To quantify the importance of the four types of losses, this method uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to calculate weights. For example, based on expert judgment or policy guidance, the importance of losses is ranked according to the principle of social losses > human losses ≈ environmental losses > economic losses. This results in human losses and environmental losses accounting for 21.8%, social losses for 46.1%, and economic losses for 10.3%. This weight matrix is:

[0200] A=[a1, a2, a3, a4]=[21.8%, 21.8%, 46.1%, 10.3%].

[0201] The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) constructs a judgment matrix to quantitatively reflect the contribution of each loss type to overall risk. This method combines qualitative and quantitative analysis, ensuring the rationality and consistency of weightings. It clarifies the influence of each loss type in the calculation of consequence factors, providing a scientific basis for comprehensive evaluation and avoiding biases caused by excessive subjectivity.

[0202] Step 4: Calculate the membership of the four types of losses (i.e., for each of the N dimensions, evaluate the membership of the corresponding loss value with each of the M evaluation levels).

[0203] The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to design the membership functions of the four types of losses, and the four types of loss values ​​are input into the calculation to obtain the membership values ​​of the four types of losses.

[0204] After obtaining the specific values ​​for the four types of losses, this method uses a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to calculate the consequence factors. First, the evaluation set V (equivalent to the M evaluation levels mentioned above) is determined; then, a membership function is established, using either a trapezoidal or triangular membership function, to map each loss value to the membership of the evaluation set.

[0205] The components of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method include:

[0206] a) Indicator Set

[0207] U = {u1, u2, u3, u4}

[0208] Among them, u1 corresponds to personnel losses; u2 corresponds to environmental losses; u3 corresponds to social losses; and u4 corresponds to economic losses.

[0209] b) Weight matrix

[0210] A=[a1,a2,a3,a4]

[0211] Among them, a1 is the weight value of personnel loss u1 in the indicator set; a2 is the weight value of environmental loss u2 in the indicator set; a3 is the weight value of social loss u3 in the indicator set; and a4 is the weight value of economic loss u4 in the indicator set.

[0212] c) Comments

[0213] This method divides the comment set V of the consequence factor into six levels from light to heavy:

[0214] V = {Very small v1, Mild v2, Moderate v3, Severe v4, Severe v5, Very large v6}

[0215] d) Evaluation Matrix

[0216]

[0217] Among them, the first row of the evaluation matrix represents the membership function of the six evaluation categories of personnel losses in the evaluation set; the second row represents the membership function of the six evaluation categories of environmental losses in the evaluation set; the third row represents the membership function of the six evaluation categories of social losses in the evaluation set; and the fourth row represents the membership function of the six evaluation categories of economic losses in the evaluation set.

[0218] This method uses a trapezoidal distribution function to fit the membership between the four types of losses and the six comments. For example, the severity classification of the four types of losses using the emergency environmental event classification standard in the "National Emergency Plan for Environmental Emergencies" as the consequence factor can be used as a reference. The membership function example used is as follows:

[0219] Membership function between environmental loss and the comment “minimum”:

[0220]

[0221] Membership function between environmental loss and the comment “light”:

[0222]

[0223] Membership function between environmental loss and rating “medium”:

[0224]

[0225] Membership function between environmental loss and the evaluation of “heavy”:

[0226]

[0227] Membership function between environmental loss and the rating “serious”:

[0228]

[0229] Membership function between environmental loss and the comment “maximum”:

[0230]

[0231] The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method links quantitative loss values ​​with qualitative evaluation levels through a membership function. This approach can handle the ambiguity and uncertainty of indicators and reflects the impact of different loss levels on consequences. It effectively converts specific loss values ​​into evaluation levels, making the evaluation results more readable and interpretable, making them easier for decision makers to understand and apply.

[0232] Step 5: Normalization.

[0233] Normalize the six membership values ​​of the same type of loss:

[0234] The sum of the six membership values ​​is kept to 1, thus obtaining the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix of the consequence factors.

[0235]

[0236] Normalization ensures that the sum of the membership degrees is 1, satisfying the probabilistic meaning and facilitating subsequent weighted calculations. The standardized evaluation matrix unifies the assessment scales for each loss type, ensuring the fairness and rationality of the comprehensive evaluation.

[0237] Step 6: Calculate the consequence factor membership matrix.

[0238] The comprehensive evaluation matrix of the normalized consequence factors Multiplying it with the weight matrix A, we get the overall membership matrix B of the consequence factors:

[0239]

[0240] Among them, the membership degrees b1 to b6 of the membership matrix correspond to the six levels in the comment set V: "very small", "light", "medium", "heavy", "serious", and "very large". i Indicates the comprehensive membership of the consequence factor to the i-th comment level.

[0241] Through matrix multiplication, the weights and memberships of each loss type are organically combined to obtain the overall assessment results. The comprehensive membership matrix reflects the contribution of each comment level to the overall consequence factor, providing a basis for the final quantitative calculation.

[0242] Step 7: Numerical calculation of consequence factors (determine the consequence factors of risk scenario events occurring in nuclear facilities based on M*N membership degrees).

[0243] Assign values ​​to the six levels in the comment set V: "Very small" corresponds to a consequence factor of 0.05, "mild" corresponds to a consequence factor of 0.2, "moderate" corresponds to a consequence factor of 0.4, "severe" corresponds to a consequence factor of 0.6, "serious" corresponds to a consequence factor of 0.8, and "extreme" corresponds to a consequence factor of 1.0. Therefore, the value of the consequence factor C calculated using the overall membership matrix B of the consequence factor is:

[0244] C=0.05b1+0.2b2+0.4b3+0.6b4+0.8b5+b6

[0245] The comprehensive membership degree is converted into a specific numerical value to obtain a continuous consequence factor. This weighted summation method ensures that the evaluation results not only include the impact of each level but also reflect the differences in their weights. The resulting consequence factor C is a precise value, overcoming the discontinuous results and rough classification problems of traditional methods, and improving the accuracy of risk assessment.

[0246] In this example, by refining the input of nuclear material parameters, four categories of losses—human, environmental, social, and economic—are calculated in detail. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to determine weights, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to establish membership functions, ultimately resulting in continuous consequence factor values. This overcomes the low precision of consequence factor calculations in traditional methods and is able to reflect subtle changes in nuclear material parameters. Through mathematical models and standardized processes, the basis for assigning consequence factor values ​​is clarified, enhancing the credibility of the calculation results. Furthermore, continuous variation in the consequence factor calculation results is achieved, meeting the practical requirements of continuous variation of different nuclear material parameters.

[0247] Example 2:

[0248] This embodiment provides a nuclear facility management method, the method comprising:

[0249] Obtaining a nuclear facility risk assessment result by using the nuclear facility risk assessment method provided by any of the above embodiments;

[0250] Develop management strategies based on risk assessment results;

[0251] Managing nuclear facilities according to management strategies

[0252] Specifically, through the aforementioned risk assessment methodology, potential risks at nuclear facilities are systematically analyzed, various risk factors are quantified, and detailed risk assessment results are generated. These results can include risk levels for each dimension and a comprehensive risk index, providing data support for the formulation of subsequent management strategies.

[0253] Thoroughly analyze risk assessment results to identify high-risk areas and key risk factors. Based on this risk analysis, design specific management strategies. These strategies may include strengthening safety monitoring, optimizing emergency response plans, improving personnel training, and improving equipment maintenance, all aimed at reducing identified risk levels. Develop detailed implementation plans for each management strategy. Following these plans, implement each management strategy step by step to ensure effective implementation of all measures.

[0254] Optionally, you can continuously monitor the implementation and effectiveness of management strategies, collect feedback, assess the actual impact of measures, and, when necessary, make adjustments and optimizations to adapt to the dynamically changing risk environment.

[0255] In this embodiment, by applying the aforementioned nuclear facility risk assessment method to the management process, precise management based on scientific data can be achieved. This not only comprehensively identifies and assesses potential risks at nuclear facilities, but also enables the formulation and implementation of targeted management strategies based on the assessment results, effectively reducing risk levels and improving the safety and reliability of nuclear facilities. This systematic management process ensures standardized and continuous risk management, providing a solid foundation for the safe operation of nuclear facilities.

[0256] Example 3:

[0257] like Figure 3 As shown, this embodiment provides a nuclear facility risk assessment device 300 for implementing the nuclear facility risk assessment method provided in any of the above embodiments.

[0258] The nuclear facility risk assessment device 300 specifically includes:

[0259] An acquisition module 301 is used to acquire nuclear material parameters and N dimensions of a nuclear facility, where N is a positive integer;

[0260] A first assessment module 302, connected to the acquisition module, is configured to calculate losses in N dimensions based on nuclear material parameters, and obtain N loss values ​​corresponding to the N dimensions. The loss values ​​represent the impact of a certain dimension that may be caused by a risk scenario event on the nuclear facility.

[0261] The second evaluation module 303 is connected to the first evaluation module and is used to evaluate the membership of the loss value corresponding to each dimension in the N dimensions and each evaluation level in the M evaluation levels to obtain M*N memberships, where M is a positive integer;

[0262] The third evaluation module 304 is connected to the second evaluation module and is used to determine the consequence factors of the risk scenario event occurring in the nuclear facility based on the M*N membership degrees;

[0263] The fourth assessment module 305 is connected to the third assessment module and is used to perform risk assessment on the nuclear facility according to the consequence factors to obtain a risk assessment result of the nuclear facility.

[0264] Optionally, the N dimensions include human losses, environmental losses, social losses, and economic losses, and the nuclear material parameters include the nuclide type, nuclide abundance, and nuclide mass of the nuclear material.

[0265] The first evaluation module 302 is specifically used to calculate the personnel loss value, environmental loss value, social loss value and economic loss value based on the nuclide type, nuclide abundance and nuclide mass.

[0266] Optionally, the first evaluation module 302 includes:

[0267] The first evaluation unit is configured to determine a personnel loss value as a first preset value when the risk scenario event is a nuclear material theft event and the stolen nuclear material meets the requirements for nuclear weapon manufacturing.

[0268] Optionally, the first evaluation module 302 further includes:

[0269] The second evaluation unit is used to calculate the personnel loss value by the following formula (1) when the risk scenario event is a nuclear material theft event and the stolen nuclear materials do not meet the requirements for nuclear weapon manufacturing, or when the risk scenario event is not a nuclear material theft event:

[0270] u1=0.4348ΓQm (1)

[0271] Where u1 is the personnel loss value, Γ is the exposure rate constant of the nuclide, Q is the specific activity of the nuclide, and m is the mass of the nuclide.

[0272] Optionally, the first evaluation module 302 further includes:

[0273] The third evaluation unit is configured to determine the environmental loss value as a second preset value when the risk scenario event is a nuclear material theft event and the stolen nuclear material meets the requirements for nuclear weapon manufacturing.

[0274] Optionally, the first evaluation module 302 further includes:

[0275] The fourth assessment unit is used to calculate the environmental loss value using the following formula (2) when the risk scenario event is a nuclear material theft event and the stolen nuclear materials do not meet the requirements for nuclear weapon manufacturing, or when the risk scenario event is not a nuclear material theft event:

[0276] u2=0.9522ΓQm (2)

[0277] Where u2 is the environmental loss value, Γ is the exposure rate constant of the nuclide, Q is the specific activity of the nuclide, and m is the mass of the nuclide.

[0278] Optionally, the second evaluation module 303 includes:

[0279] A first creation unit is configured to create, for each dimension in the N dimensions, a membership function associated with each evaluation level in the M evaluation levels, to obtain an evaluation matrix;

[0280] The first calculation unit is used to calculate a membership matrix according to the N loss values ​​and the evaluation matrix, where the membership matrix includes M*N memberships.

[0281] Optionally, the third evaluation module 304 includes:

[0282] An analysis unit, for determining a weight matrix of N dimensions using an analytic hierarchy process;

[0283] Multiplying the weight matrix by the membership matrix to obtain a comprehensive membership matrix, which includes the comprehensive membership of each evaluation level in the M evaluation levels;

[0284] The determination unit is used to determine the consequence factors of risk scenario events occurring in nuclear facilities based on the comprehensive membership and preset assignment of each evaluation level in the M evaluation levels.

[0285] In this example, a multi-dimensional, quantitative assessment of nuclear facility risks is conducted. By quantifying and comprehensively evaluating different types of losses, the accuracy and reliability of risk assessments are improved, helping to identify potential risks in advance, develop effective prevention and response measures, and enhance the safety management of nuclear facilities.

[0286] Example 4:

[0287] like Figure 4 As shown, this embodiment provides a nuclear facility management strategy forming system 400, which includes:

[0288] The nuclear facility risk assessment device 300 provided in any of the above embodiments is used to obtain sensitivity analysis results of various uncertainty parameters of a nuclear reactor using a nuclear facility risk assessment method;

[0289] A generation module 401 is connected to the nuclear facility risk assessment device and is used to generate a management strategy based on the risk assessment results;

[0290] The execution module 402 is connected to the generation module and is used to manage the nuclear facilities according to the management policy.

[0291] Figure 5 A schematic diagram of the hardware structure of an electronic device provided in an embodiment of the present application is shown.

[0292] The electronic device may include a processor 501 and a memory 502 storing computer program instructions.

[0293] Specifically, the processor 501 may include a central processing unit (CPU), or an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC), or may be configured to implement one or more integrated circuits of the embodiments of the present application.

[0294] The memory 502 may include a large capacity memory for data or instructions. By way of example and not limitation, the memory 502 may include a hard disk drive (HDD), a floppy disk drive, a flash memory, an optical disk, a magneto-optical disk, a magnetic tape, or a universal serial bus (USB) drive, or a combination of two or more of these. Where appropriate, the memory 502 may include removable or non-removable (or fixed) media. Where appropriate, the memory 502 may be inside or outside the integrated gateway disaster recovery device. In a specific embodiment, the memory 502 is a non-volatile solid-state memory.

[0295] The memory may include read-only memory (ROM), random access memory (RAM), magnetic disk storage media devices, optical storage media devices, flash memory devices, electrical, optical or other physical / tangible memory storage devices. Thus, generally, the memory includes one or more tangible (non-transitory) computer-readable storage media (e.g., memory devices) encoded with software including computer-executable instructions, and when the software is executed (e.g., by one or more processors), it is operable to perform the operations described with reference to the method according to an aspect of the present disclosure.

[0296] The processor 501 reads and executes computer program instructions stored in the memory 502 to implement any one of the nuclear facility risk assessment methods in the above embodiments.

[0297] In one example, the electronic device may further include a communication interface 503 and a bus 504. Figure 3 As shown, the processor 501 , the memory 502 , and the communication interface 503 are connected via a bus 504 and communicate with each other.

[0298] The communication interface 503 is mainly used to implement communication between various modules, devices, units and / or equipment in the embodiments of the present application.

[0299] Bus 504 includes hardware, software or both, and the parts of online data flow metering equipment are coupled to each other. For example, but not limitation, bus can include accelerated graphics port (AGP) or other graphics bus, enhanced industry standard architecture (EISA) bus, front side bus (FSB), hypertransport (HT) interconnection, industry standard architecture (ISA) bus, infinite bandwidth interconnection, low pin count (LPC) bus, memory bus, micro channel architecture (MCA) bus, peripheral component interconnection (PCI) bus, PCI-Express (PCI-X) bus, serial advanced technology attachment (SATA) bus, video electronics standard association local (VLB) bus or other suitable bus or two or more of these combinations. In appropriate cases, bus 504 can include one or more buses. Although the present application embodiment describes and shows specific bus, the application considers any suitable bus or interconnection.

[0300] In addition, in conjunction with the risk assessment method in the above embodiments, embodiments of the present application may provide a computer storage medium for implementation. The computer storage medium stores computer program instructions; when the computer program instructions are executed by a processor, any of the risk assessment methods in the above embodiments is implemented.

[0301] It should be understood that the present application is not limited to the specific configurations and processes described above and illustrated in the figures. For the sake of brevity, a detailed description of known methods is omitted here. In the above embodiments, several specific steps are described and illustrated as examples. However, the method process of the present application is not limited to the specific steps described and illustrated. Those skilled in the art can make various changes, modifications, and additions, or change the order of the steps after understanding the spirit of the present application.

[0302] The functional blocks shown in the above block diagram can be implemented as hardware, software, firmware or a combination thereof. When implemented in hardware, they can be, for example, electronic circuits, application specific integrated circuits (ASICs), appropriate firmware, plug-ins, function cards, etc. When implemented in software, the elements of the present application are programs or code segments that are used to perform the required tasks. Programs or code segments can be stored in machine-readable media, or transmitted on a transmission medium or a communication link by a data signal carried in a carrier wave. "Machine-readable media" can include any medium capable of storing or transmitting information. Examples of machine-readable media include electronic circuits, semiconductor memory devices, ROMs, flash memories, erasable ROMs (EROMs), floppy disks, CD-ROMs, optical disks, hard disks, optical fiber media, radio frequency (RF) links, etc. The code segments can be downloaded via computer networks such as the Internet, intranets, etc.

[0303] It should also be noted that the exemplary embodiments mentioned in this application describe some methods or systems based on a series of steps or devices. However, this application is not limited to the order of the above steps. In other words, the steps can be performed in the order mentioned in the embodiments, or in a different order, or several steps can be performed simultaneously.

[0304] It will be understood that the above embodiments are merely exemplary embodiments for illustrating the principles of the present invention, and the present invention is not limited thereto. Those skilled in the art will appreciate that various modifications and improvements can be made without departing from the spirit and substance of the present invention, and such modifications and improvements are also considered to be within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A nuclear facility risk assessment method, characterized in that: include: Obtaining nuclear material parameters and N dimensions of the nuclear facility, where N is a positive integer; Performing loss calculations in N dimensions based on the nuclear material parameters to obtain N loss values ​​corresponding to the N dimensions, wherein the loss values ​​represent the impact of a certain dimension that may be caused by a risk scenario event at the nuclear facility; For each dimension in N dimensions, evaluate the membership between its corresponding loss value and each evaluation level in M ​​evaluation levels to obtain M*N memberships, where M is a positive integer; determining, based on the M*N membership degrees, a consequence factor of a risk scenario event occurring at the nuclear facility; A risk assessment is performed on the nuclear facility according to the consequence factors to obtain a risk assessment result of the nuclear facility.

2. The nuclear facility risk assessment method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The N dimensions include human losses, environmental losses, social losses and economic losses, and the nuclear material parameters include the nuclide type, nuclide abundance and nuclide quality of the nuclear material. The calculation of losses in N dimensions is performed according to the nuclear material parameters to obtain N loss values ​​corresponding to the N dimensions, specifically including: The personnel loss value, environmental loss value, social loss value and economic loss value are calculated based on the nuclide type, nuclide abundance and nuclide mass.

3. The nuclear facility risk assessment method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The personnel loss value is calculated based on the nuclide type, nuclide abundance and nuclide mass, specifically including: When the risk scenario event is a nuclear material theft event and the stolen nuclear material meets the needs of nuclear weapons manufacturing, the personnel loss value is determined to be a first preset value, which is determined based on historical risk scenario events and is used to characterize the degree of personnel loss.

4. The nuclear facility risk assessment method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The personnel loss value is calculated based on the nuclide type, nuclide abundance and nuclide mass, specifically including: In the case where the risk scenario event is a nuclear material theft event and the stolen nuclear materials do not meet the requirements for nuclear weapon manufacturing, or the risk scenario event is not a nuclear material theft event, the personnel loss value is calculated using the following formula (1): u1=0.4348ΓQm (1) Where u1 is the personnel loss value, Γ is the exposure rate constant of the nuclide, Q is the specific activity of the nuclide, and m is the mass of the nuclide.

5. The nuclear facility risk assessment method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The environmental loss value is calculated based on the nuclide type, nuclide abundance and nuclide mass, specifically including: When the risk scenario event is a nuclear material theft event and the stolen nuclear material meets the needs of nuclear weapons manufacturing, the environmental loss value is determined to be a second preset value, which is determined based on historical risk scenario events and is used to characterize the degree of environmental loss.

6. The nuclear facility risk assessment method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The environmental loss value is calculated based on the nuclide type, nuclide abundance and nuclide mass, specifically including: In the case where the risk scenario event is a nuclear material theft event and the stolen nuclear materials do not meet the requirements for nuclear weapon manufacturing, or the risk scenario event is not a nuclear material theft event, the environmental loss value is calculated using the following formula (2): u2=0.9522ΓQm (2) Where u2 is the environmental loss value, Γ is the exposure rate constant of the nuclide, Q is the specific activity of the nuclide, and m is the mass of the nuclide.

7. The nuclear facility risk assessment method according to claim 1, characterized in that: For each dimension in the N dimensions, the corresponding loss value is evaluated with respect to the membership of each evaluation level in the M evaluation levels to obtain M*N memberships, specifically including: For each dimension in the N dimensions, create a membership function associated with each evaluation level in the M evaluation levels to obtain an evaluation matrix; A membership matrix is ​​calculated based on the N loss values ​​and the evaluation matrix, where the membership matrix includes the M*N memberships.

8. The nuclear facility risk assessment method according to claim 7, characterized in that: N=4, M=6, the evaluation matrix is ​​expressed as the following expression (3): Among them, R is the evaluation matrix, the rows of the matrix represent the dimensions, the columns of the matrix represent the evaluation levels, and r represents the membership function corresponding to the dimensions and evaluation levels.

9. The nuclear facility risk assessment method according to claim 8, characterized in that: The membership function is a trapezoidal distribution function.

10. The nuclear facility risk assessment method according to claim 8, characterized in that Determining the consequence factors of the risk scenario event occurring in the nuclear facility based on the M*N membership degrees specifically includes: Determine the weight matrix of the N dimensions using the analytic hierarchy process; Multiplying the weight matrix by the membership matrix to obtain a comprehensive membership matrix, wherein the comprehensive membership matrix includes the comprehensive membership of each evaluation level in the M evaluation levels; According to the comprehensive membership degree and preset value of each evaluation level in the M evaluation levels, the consequence factor of the risk scenario event occurring in the nuclear facility is determined.

11. A nuclear facility risk assessment device, characterized in that: The device comprises: an acquisition module, configured to acquire nuclear material parameters and N dimensions of the nuclear facility, where N is a positive integer; a first assessment module, connected to the acquisition module, configured to calculate losses in N dimensions based on the nuclear material parameters, and obtain N loss values ​​corresponding to the N dimensions, wherein the loss values ​​represent the impact of a certain dimension that may be caused by a risk scenario event on the nuclear facility; a second evaluation module, connected to the first evaluation module, for evaluating, for each of the N dimensions, the corresponding loss value and the membership of each of the M evaluation levels, to obtain M*N memberships, where M is a positive integer; a third assessment module, connected to the second assessment module, for determining the consequence factors of a risk scenario event occurring in the nuclear facility based on the M*N membership degrees; The fourth assessment module is connected to the third assessment module and is used to perform risk assessment on the nuclear facility according to the consequence factors to obtain a risk assessment result of the nuclear facility.

12. The nuclear facility risk assessment device according to claim 11, characterized in that: The N dimensions include human losses, environmental losses, social losses and economic losses, and the nuclear material parameters include the nuclide type, nuclide abundance and nuclide quality of the nuclear material. The first evaluation module is specifically used for: The personnel loss value, environmental loss value, social loss value and economic loss value are calculated based on the nuclide type, nuclide abundance and nuclide mass.

13. The nuclear facility risk assessment device according to claim 11, characterized in that: The second evaluation module includes: A first creation unit is configured to create, for each dimension in the N dimensions, a membership function associated with each evaluation level in the M evaluation levels, to obtain an evaluation matrix; A first calculation unit is connected to the first creation unit and is used to calculate a membership matrix based on the N loss values ​​and the evaluation matrix, where the membership matrix includes M*N memberships.

14. A nuclear facility management method, characterized in that: include: Obtaining a risk assessment result of the nuclear facility according to the nuclear facility risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 10; Develop management strategies based on the risk assessment results; The nuclear facility is managed according to the management strategy.

15. A nuclear facility risk assessment device, characterized in that: The device includes: a processor and a memory storing computer program instructions; When the processor executes the computer program instructions, the nuclear facility risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 10 is implemented.

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