A method for evaluating the dynamic carbon emission reduction effect of pumped storage power stations throughout their entire life cycle.

Abstract

This invention provides a method for evaluating the dynamic carbon emission reduction effect of pumped storage power stations throughout their entire life cycle, relating to the field of carbon emission reduction effect evaluation technology. First, relevant data from decommissioned power stations are acquired, and a decommissioning carbon emission prediction model is constructed to predict the carbon emissions during the maintenance and decommissioning phases of the power station to be evaluated. Second, the material usage during the construction phase of the power station to be evaluated is analyzed, and its carbon emissions are calculated. Next, the annual carbon emissions of radiation power stations on the same grid as the power station are evaluated, and a reference annual carbon emission level is determined when there is no power station. Based on the above data, the carbon emission reduction over the entire life cycle of the power station is calculated. Then, the incremental ecological impact cost, carbon neutrality benefits, and total production cost reduction over the entire life cycle of the power station are obtained. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to comprehensively evaluate these four indicators to determine the effectiveness of the power station's carbon emission reduction.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of carbon emission reduction effect evaluation technology, specifically a method for evaluating the dynamic carbon emission reduction effect of pumped storage power stations throughout their entire life cycle. Background Technology

[0002] In the context of the current global response to climate change, carbon emission analysis in the power industry, particularly pumped storage power plants, is of paramount importance. A life-cycle carbon emission assessment for a power plant encompasses its construction, operation, maintenance, and decommissioning phases. By quantifying carbon emissions at each stage, a comprehensive understanding of the power plant's environmental impact can be achieved. Existing technologies typically employ life-cycle assessment methods combined with environmental impact assessments, utilizing model simulations and empirical data analysis to calculate carbon emissions and evaluate emission reduction effectiveness. These methods, by integrating multiple data sources, including carbon emission factors from construction materials, actual operational data, and environmental monitoring data, provide crucial support for carbon management of power plants.

[0003] However, existing technologies still have some shortcomings in analyzing the carbon emissions and emission reduction effects of power plants throughout their entire life cycle. First, in terms of data acquisition, many power plants lack a systematic carbon emission data collection mechanism, resulting in incomplete carbon emission factors and life cycle data, affecting the accuracy and reliability of the assessment. Second, existing models often oversimplify complex nonlinear relationships, failing to fully consider the dynamic interaction between carbon emissions and ecological and economic impacts. This limitation can affect decision-makers' comprehensive judgment on carbon emission reduction strategies.

[0004] The information disclosed in the background section is only intended to enhance the understanding of the background of this disclosure, and therefore may include information that does not constitute prior art known to those skilled in the art. Summary of the Invention

[0005] The purpose of this invention is to provide a method for evaluating the dynamic carbon emission reduction effect of pumped storage power stations throughout their entire life cycle, so as to solve the problems mentioned in the background art.

[0006] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention provides the following technical solution:

[0007] A method for evaluating the dynamic carbon emission reduction effect of pumped storage power stations throughout their entire life cycle, comprising the following steps:

[0008] Step 1: Obtain relevant data of decommissioned pumped storage power stations. The relevant data includes service life, types and quantities of construction materials, rated power generation capacity, waste transportation parameters, carbon emissions during maintenance and decommissioning. Use service life, types and quantities of construction materials, rated power generation capacity, and waste transportation parameters as inputs, and the corresponding carbon emissions during maintenance and decommissioning as labels to construct a decommissioning carbon emission prediction model. Based on the trained model, obtain the carbon emissions of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated during maintenance and decommissioning.

[0009] Step 2: Analyze the types and quantities of materials used during the construction phase of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated in order to obtain the carbon emissions of the pumped storage power station during the construction phase.

[0010] Step 3: Take the power station connected to the same power grid as the pumped storage power station to be evaluated as the radiation power station, obtain the annual total carbon emissions of the radiation power station during the operation of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated, and obtain the reference annual total carbon emissions of the radiation power station when there is no pumped storage power station to be evaluated.

[0011] Step 4: Calculate the carbon emission reduction of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated throughout its entire life cycle by combining the design life, annual total carbon emissions, reference annual total carbon emissions, and carbon emissions during the construction, maintenance, and decommissioning phases.

[0012] Step 5: Use the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to analyze the carbon emission reduction, ecological impact cost increment, carbon neutrality benefits, and total production cost reduction of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated throughout its entire life cycle, so as to comprehensively evaluate the carbon emission reduction effect of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated throughout its entire life cycle.

[0013] Furthermore, constructing the decommissioning carbon emission prediction model specifically includes:

[0014] The service life refers to the number of years the power station has been in operation since its construction, measured in years. The waste transportation parameters include the waste transportation method and the waste transportation distance. The relevant data collected from decommissioned pumped storage power stations are divided into training and validation sets. A linear regression model in machine learning is used as the basic model. The service life, types and quantities of construction materials, rated power generation capacity, and waste transportation parameters from the training set are input into the model to train the linear regression model and output the carbon emissions during the maintenance and decommissioning phases. A decommissioning carbon emission prediction model is constructed, and the mean square error data in the validation set is monitored. If the mean square error of the validation set changes by less than 0.01 in several consecutive iterations, the model training is considered complete.

[0015] The service life, types and quantities of construction materials, rated power generation capacity, and waste transportation parameters of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated are input into the decommissioning carbon emission prediction model that has been trained, and the carbon emissions during the maintenance phase and the decommissioning phase are obtained from the model output.

[0016] Furthermore, obtaining the carbon emissions of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated during the construction phase specifically includes:

[0017] The formula for calculating the carbon emissions of the pumped storage power station under evaluation during the construction phase is as follows: This formula involves statistically analyzing the types and quantities of materials used during the construction phase of the power station.

[0018] ;

[0019] in, This refers to carbon emissions during the construction phase. For the first phase of construction The amount of each material used For the first The unit carbon emission factor of each material, x is the index of the material type in the construction phase, and I is the total number of material types in the construction phase. ;

[0020] Furthermore, the method for obtaining the annual total carbon emissions of the radiant power station during the operation of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated is as follows:

[0021] The annual carbon emissions of each radiation power plant are calculated using the following formula:

[0022] ;

[0023] in, For the first pumped storage power station to be evaluated The annual carbon emissions of the a-th radiation power plant within a certain number of operating years. For the first pumped storage power station to be evaluated Within each operating year, the annual power generation of the a-th radiation power station is: Let be the unit electricity carbon emission factor of the a-th radiation power station, where 'a' is the index of the radiation power station and 'o' is the index of the operating year.

[0024] The formula for calculating the annual total carbon emissions of a radiation power plant is as follows:

[0025] ;

[0026] Where, r For the first pumped storage power station to be evaluated The total annual carbon emissions of the radiation power plants within each operating year, where A is the number of radiation power plants, and ;

[0027] The method for obtaining the reference annual total carbon emissions of a radiation power station when there is no pumped storage power station to be evaluated is as follows: obtain the electricity demand of the year in which the annual total carbon emissions are located from the power grid, select the year with the closest electricity demand from the previous years when there was no pumped storage power station to be evaluated as the reference year, and use the annual total carbon emissions of the radiation power station in the reference year as the reference annual total carbon emissions of that year.

[0028] Furthermore, calculating the carbon emission reductions over the entire life cycle of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated includes:

[0029] Based on the carbon emissions of the pumped storage power station under evaluation during the construction, maintenance, and decommissioning phases, the formula for calculating the total carbon emissions of the pumped storage power station over its entire life cycle is as follows:

[0030] ;

[0031] in, The total carbon emissions of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated over its entire life cycle. This refers to carbon emissions during the construction phase. The carbon emissions during the maintenance phase are output by the decommissioning carbon emission prediction model. The carbon emissions during the decommissioning phase are output by the carbon emission prediction model for decommissioning.

[0032] The formula for calculating the carbon emission reduction for each year is:

[0033] ;

[0034] in, For the carbon emission reduction in year 0, This is the reference annual total carbon emissions for year 0;

[0035] The formula for calculating the total carbon emission reduction of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated over its design life is as follows:

[0036] ;

[0037] in, This represents the total carbon emission reduction over the entire life cycle of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated. For the pumped storage power station to be evaluated, the number of years of operation. Y represents the design life;

[0038] The formula for obtaining the carbon emission reduction of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated over its entire life cycle is:

[0039] ;

[0040] in, This refers to the carbon emission reduction of the pumped storage power station throughout its entire life cycle, which is to be evaluated.

[0041] Furthermore, obtaining the incremental ecological impact costs, carbon neutrality benefits, and total production cost reductions for the entire life cycle of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated specifically includes:

[0042] First, obtain the incremental ecological impact costs, carbon neutrality benefits, and total reduction in production costs for the pumped storage power station to be evaluated throughout its entire life cycle. Specifically, this includes:

[0043] Obtain the annual production cost data of the radiation power plant, compare it with the production cost of a reference year, and calculate the cost reduction for each year. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0044] The formula for calculating the annual production cost of each radiation power station is as follows:

[0045] ;

[0046] in, The pumped storage power station to be evaluated The annual production cost of the radiation power plant within each operating year. The production cost of the a-th radiation power station in the o-th operating year;

[0047] ;

[0048] in, This represents the production cost reduction for the pumped storage power station to be evaluated in its 0th operating year. For reference annual production costs;

[0049] The formula for calculating the total reduction in production costs over the entire life cycle of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated is as follows:

[0050] ;

[0051] in, This represents the total reduction in production costs throughout the entire lifecycle of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated.

[0052] The formula for calculating the carbon neutrality benefit of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated over its entire life cycle is as follows:

[0053] ;

[0054] Where R represents the carbon neutrality benefit of the pumped storage power station over its entire life cycle to be evaluated. The CTP represents the carbon emission reduction of the pumped storage power station over its entire life cycle, which is to be evaluated.

[0055] The formula for calculating the incremental cost of ecological impact is:

[0056] ;

[0057] in, The first pumped storage power station to be evaluated The increase in ecological impact costs within each operating year To reference the annual ecological impact costs, The ecological impact cost for year o;

[0058] ;

[0059] in, This represents the incremental cost of the ecological impact of the pumped storage power station throughout its entire life cycle, to be evaluated.

[0060] Furthermore, the analytic hierarchy process specifically includes:

[0061] The carbon emission reduction, ecological impact cost increment, carbon neutrality benefits, and total production cost reduction of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated throughout its entire life cycle are set as evaluation indicators. A scoring method is set, and the relative importance of each evaluation indicator is determined by expert scoring. A judgment matrix is ​​constructed based on the expert scores, and the eigenvalues ​​and eigenvectors of the judgment matrix are calculated. Consistency is checked by calculating the consistency index and consistency ratio. If the consistency ratio is less than 0.1, the judgment matrix is ​​considered consistent, and the comprehensive score of each evaluation indicator is calculated to evaluate the carbon emission reduction effect. If the consistency ratio is equal to or higher than 0.1, the judgment matrix is ​​readjusted.

[0062] Furthermore, assessing the effectiveness of carbon emission reduction specifically includes:

[0063] The formula for calculating the overall score of each evaluation indicator is as follows:

[0064] ;

[0065] Where S is the overall score. These are the weight coefficients corresponding to each evaluation indicator, i.e., the values ​​of the first, second, third, and fourth items in the feature vector;

[0066] The overall score is compared with a preset threshold. If the overall score is higher than the preset threshold, the carbon emission reduction effect of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated throughout its entire life cycle is defined as excellent. If the overall score is lower than the preset threshold, the carbon emission reduction effect of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated throughout its entire life cycle is defined as poor.

[0067] The technical effects and advantages provided by the present invention in the above technical solution are as follows:

[0068] This dynamic carbon emission reduction assessment method for the entire life cycle of pumped storage power stations employs a comprehensive and systematic evaluation, covering the construction, maintenance, and decommissioning phases. It accurately calculates carbon emissions and enables data-driven model construction, thereby improving the accuracy and reliability of the assessment. Leveraging machine learning technology, this method dynamically reflects the carbon emission characteristics at different stages based on historical data. It also provides multi-dimensional decision support by considering changes in ecological impact costs, carbon neutrality benefits, and production costs. The method uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to analyze four indicators: total carbon emission reduction throughout the power station's life cycle, incremental ecological impact costs, carbon neutrality benefits, and total reduction in production costs. This analysis determines the weight of each indicator and yields a comprehensive score, which is used to quantify the carbon emission reduction effect, making the carbon emission assessment more flexible and realistic. Attached Figure Description

[0069] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram of the overall method flow of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0070] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of this invention clearer, the invention will be further described in detail below with reference to specific embodiments.

[0071] It should be noted that, unless otherwise defined, the technical or scientific terms used in this invention should have the ordinary meaning understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this invention pertains. The terms "first," "second," and similar terms used in this invention do not indicate any order, quantity, or importance, but are merely used to distinguish different components. Terms such as "comprising" or "including" mean that the element or object preceding the word encompasses the elements or objects listed following the word and their equivalents, without excluding other elements or objects. Terms such as "connected" or "linked" are not limited to physical or mechanical connections, but can include electrical connections, whether direct or indirect. Terms such as "upper," "lower," "left," and "right" are used only to indicate relative positional relationships; when the absolute position of the described object changes, the relative positional relationship may also change accordingly.

[0072] Example:

[0073] Please see Figure 1 The present invention provides a technical solution:

[0074] A method for evaluating the dynamic carbon emission reduction effect of pumped storage power stations throughout their entire life cycle, comprising the following steps:

[0075] Step 1: Obtain relevant data of decommissioned pumped storage power stations. The relevant data includes service life, types and quantities of construction materials, rated power generation capacity, waste transportation parameters, carbon emissions during maintenance and decommissioning. Use service life, types and quantities of construction materials, rated power generation capacity, and waste transportation parameters as inputs, and the corresponding carbon emissions during maintenance and decommissioning as labels to construct a decommissioning carbon emission prediction model. Based on the trained model, obtain the carbon emissions of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated during maintenance and decommissioning.

[0076] In this embodiment, constructing the decommissioning carbon emission prediction model specifically includes:

[0077] The service life refers to the number of years the power station has been in operation since its construction, measured in years. The waste transportation parameters include the waste transportation method and the waste transportation distance. The relevant data collected from decommissioned pumped storage power stations are divided into training and validation sets. A linear regression model in machine learning is used as the basic model. The service life, types and quantities of construction materials, rated power generation capacity, and waste transportation parameters from the training set are input into the model to train the linear regression model and output the carbon emissions during the maintenance and decommissioning phases. A decommissioning carbon emission prediction model is constructed, and the mean square error data in the validation set is monitored. If the mean square error of the validation set changes by less than 0.01 in several consecutive iterations, the model training is considered complete.

[0078] The service life, types and quantities of construction materials, rated power generation capacity, and waste transportation parameters of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated are input into the decommissioning carbon emission prediction model that has been trained, and the carbon emissions during the maintenance phase and the decommissioning phase are obtained from the model output.

[0079] Step 2: Analyze the types and quantities of materials used during the construction phase of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated in order to obtain the carbon emissions of the pumped storage power station during the construction phase.

[0080] In this embodiment, obtaining the carbon emissions of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated during the construction phase specifically includes:

[0081] The formula for calculating the carbon emissions of the pumped storage power station under evaluation during the construction phase is as follows: This formula involves statistically analyzing the types and quantities of materials used during the construction phase of the power station.

[0082] ;

[0083] in, This refers to carbon emissions during the construction phase. For the first phase of construction The amount of each material used For the first The unit carbon emission factor of each material, x is the index of the material type in the construction phase, and I is the total number of material types in the construction phase. ;

[0084] Materials that may be used during the construction phase include concrete, steel, and cement. The corresponding carbon emission factor per unit of these materials can be obtained from relevant data published by relevant departments or management agencies, such as carbon emission factor databases for building materials. Alternatively, carbon emission factors based on empirical data can be obtained from relevant academic research. For example, if 5,000 tons of concrete are used, the corresponding carbon emission factor per unit is 0.09 tons. / ton, with a steel consumption of 1000 tons, the corresponding unit carbon emission factor is 1.8 tons. / ton, cement consumption of 2000 tons, corresponding to a unit carbon emission factor of 0.8 tons. / ton.

[0085] Step 3: Take the power station connected to the same power grid as the pumped storage power station to be evaluated as the radiation power station, obtain the annual total carbon emissions of the radiation power station during the operation of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated, and obtain the reference annual total carbon emissions of the radiation power station when there is no pumped storage power station to be evaluated.

[0086] In this embodiment, the method for obtaining the annual total carbon emissions of the radiant power station during the operation of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated is as follows:

[0087] The annual carbon emissions of each radiation power plant are calculated using the following formula:

[0088] ;

[0089] in, For the first pumped storage power station to be evaluated The annual carbon emissions of the a-th radiation power plant within a certain number of operating years. For the first pumped storage power station to be evaluated Within each operating year, the annual power generation of the a-th radiation power station is: Let be the unit electricity carbon emission factor of the a-th radiation power station, where 'a' is the index of the radiation power station and 'o' is the index of the operating year.

[0090] The formula for calculating the annual total carbon emissions of a radiation power plant is as follows:

[0091] ;

[0092] Where, r For the first pumped storage power station to be evaluated The total annual carbon emissions of the radiation power plants within each operating year, where A is the number of radiation power plants, and ;

[0093] The method for obtaining the reference annual total carbon emissions of a radiation power station when there is no pumped storage power station to be evaluated is as follows: obtain the electricity demand of the year in which the annual total carbon emissions are located from the power grid, select the year with the closest electricity demand from the previous years when there was no pumped storage power station to be evaluated as the reference year, and use the annual total carbon emissions of the radiation power station in the reference year as the reference annual total carbon emissions of that year.

[0094] The total carbon emissions for a reference year provide a baseline, enabling the assessment of the carbon emission levels of radiant power plants in the absence of pumped storage power plants to be evaluated. This baseline helps assess the changes in carbon emissions from radiant power plants after the introduction of pumped storage power plants. By setting a reference year, it more accurately reflects the carbon emission characteristics of the power grid under different conditions, providing data to facilitate the assessment of the carbon reduction effects of pumped storage power plants.

[0095] Step 4: Calculate the carbon emission reduction of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated throughout its entire life cycle by combining the design life, annual total carbon emissions, reference annual total carbon emissions, and carbon emissions during the construction, maintenance, and decommissioning phases.

[0096] In this embodiment, calculating the carbon emission reduction over the entire life cycle of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated includes:

[0097] Based on the carbon emissions of the pumped storage power station under evaluation during the construction, maintenance, and decommissioning phases, the formula for calculating the total carbon emissions of the pumped storage power station over its entire life cycle is as follows:

[0098] ;

[0099] in, The total carbon emissions of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated over its entire life cycle. This refers to carbon emissions during the construction phase. The carbon emissions during the maintenance phase are output by the decommissioning carbon emission prediction model. The carbon emissions during the decommissioning phase are output by the carbon emission prediction model for decommissioning.

[0100] This represents the total carbon emissions generated by the pumped-storage power station under evaluation during its construction, maintenance, and decommissioning phases throughout its entire lifecycle. This value quantifies the carbon footprint of the pumped-storage power station over its entire lifecycle, providing information for decision-makers to optimize design and operation management, thereby reducing carbon emissions. Each independent variable... These correspond to carbon emissions at different stages of the power plant's entire life cycle; these three factors are independent yet have a combined impact. Yes. Increased carbon emissions during the construction, maintenance, and decommissioning phases all lead to an increase in total carbon emissions over the entire life cycle.

[0101] The construction phase includes carbon emissions from construction machinery, material transportation, and concrete production. Carbon emissions during the construction phase are typically high due to the extensive extraction, processing, and transportation of resources. The maintenance phase involves carbon emissions from routine maintenance, repairs, and equipment replacement during power plant operation. While carbon emissions during the maintenance phase are relatively low, they are still significant. The decommissioning phase includes carbon emissions from equipment dismantling, site restoration, and waste disposal. With increasingly stringent environmental regulations, the carbon emissions during the decommissioning phase also require scientific assessment.

[0102] The formula for calculating the carbon emission reduction for each year is:

[0103] ;

[0104] in, For the carbon emission reduction in year 0, This is the reference annual total carbon emissions for year 0;

[0105] The formula for calculating the total carbon emission reduction of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated over its design life is as follows:

[0106] ;

[0107] in, This represents the total carbon emission reduction over the entire life cycle of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated. For the pumped storage power station to be evaluated, the number of years of operation. Y represents the design life;

[0108] This represents the total reduction in carbon emissions achieved through the implementation of carbon reduction measures and technological innovations over the design life of the power plant. It reflects the power plant's contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions throughout its life cycle. This represents the difference between carbon emissions in each year and a reference year, specifically reflecting the actual effect of carbon reduction measures. If carbon emissions are successfully reduced in a given year through new technologies, operational optimizations, etc. (i.e.,...), then... If the value is positive, then the emission reduction effect in this year will contribute to the overall total carbon emission reduction. To have a positive impact The value increases, indicating that the more emission reduction measures successfully implemented each year, the higher the final total carbon emission reduction; conversely, if annual carbon emissions fail to decrease (i.e., ... If it is negative or zero, it may lead to The total amount of emissions decreased instead of increasing. This indicates that if power plants fail to effectively implement emission reduction measures in certain years, or if emissions increase due to external factors (such as policy changes, technological restrictions, etc.), the overall emission reduction effect will be weakened.

[0109] The formula for obtaining the carbon emission reduction of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated over its entire life cycle is:

[0110] ;

[0111] in, This refers to the carbon emission reduction of the pumped storage power station throughout its entire life cycle, which is to be evaluated.

[0112] like A positive value indicates that the total carbon emission reduction of the pumped storage power station under evaluation over its entire life cycle is greater than the total carbon emission consumption, indicating that it has achieved emission reduction effect; otherwise, it has not achieved emission reduction effect.

[0113] Step 5: Use the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to analyze the carbon emission reduction, ecological impact cost increment, carbon neutrality benefits, and total production cost reduction of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated throughout its entire life cycle, so as to comprehensively evaluate the carbon emission reduction effect of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated throughout its entire life cycle.

[0114] In this embodiment, obtaining the incremental ecological impact cost, carbon neutrality benefits, and total reduction in production costs over the entire life cycle of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated specifically includes:

[0115] First, obtain the incremental ecological impact costs, carbon neutrality benefits, and total reduction in production costs for the pumped storage power station to be evaluated throughout its entire life cycle. Specifically, this includes:

[0116] Obtain the annual production cost data of the radiation power plant, compare it with the production cost of a reference year, and calculate the cost reduction for each year. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0117] The formula for calculating the annual production cost of each radiation power station is as follows:

[0118] ;

[0119] in, The pumped storage power station to be evaluated The annual production cost of the radiation power plant within each operating year. The production cost of the a-th radiation power station in the o-th operating year;

[0120] ;

[0121] in, This represents the production cost reduction for the pumped storage power station to be evaluated in its 0th operating year. For reference, the annual production cost.

[0122] This refers to the actual production cost in year o, while It refers to the annual production cost, and the difference between the two directly affects... .if The value relative to It has decreased, that is This indicates that the power plant successfully reduced production costs in year o, while if Increase or be the same as the reference year, that is This indicates that the power plant failed to reduce production costs. In modern energy projects, production costs are typically directly linked to carbon emissions. Implementing low-carbon technologies, improving operational efficiency, and optimizing management can reduce production costs while simultaneously decreasing carbon emissions. For example, using more efficient equipment and technologies can not only reduce energy consumption and thus lower production costs but also significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, lower production costs usually translate to lower carbon emissions. Annual production cost data can be obtained from the power plant's annual financial reports or from statistics published by local statistical bureaus regarding the power industry.

[0123] The formula for calculating the total reduction in production costs over the entire life cycle of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated is as follows:

[0124] ;

[0125] in, This represents the total reduction in production costs throughout the entire lifecycle of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated.

[0126] This represents the overall reduction in production costs achieved by the pumped storage power station throughout its entire lifecycle through various strategies and measures. This value is calculated by reducing production costs for each operating year. Accumulate the results and combine them with the total operating years. The total production cost reduction over its entire lifespan (Y) is calculated based on the design life. This formula helps management understand the economic benefits of the power plant throughout its entire lifespan. By quantifying the reduction in production costs, the power plant can assess the effectiveness of the adopted technologies and management measures, thus providing a basis for future investment decisions and optimization strategies. Furthermore, this indicator helps incentivize further reductions in production costs and carbon emissions, thereby promoting sustainable development. The total production cost reduction over the entire lifespan is the cumulative reduction in production costs over the operating years. Therefore, a decrease in production cost reduction in each operating year will decrease the total production cost reduction over the entire lifespan of the power plant, while an increase in production cost reduction in each operating year will increase the total production cost reduction over the entire lifespan of the power plant.

[0127] The formula for calculating the carbon neutrality benefit of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated over its entire life cycle is as follows:

[0128] ;

[0129] Where R represents the carbon neutrality benefit of the pumped storage power station over its entire life cycle to be evaluated. The CTP is the carbon emission reduction of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated over its entire life cycle. It is obtained through the official website of the local carbon trading market or reports on carbon emissions and trading published by the environmental protection department.

[0130] R represents the economic benefits a power plant gains from carbon emission reductions throughout its entire lifecycle. This benefit is calculated based on the price of carbon emission rights in the carbon trading market and the power plant's carbon emission reductions. It reflects the economic return of the power plant under environmental policies and market mechanisms. By quantifying carbon neutrality benefits, power plant management can assess the economic effectiveness of its emission reduction measures, thereby promoting the implementation of more efficient emission reduction technologies and management strategies.

[0131] Carbon neutrality (CNP) measures the reduction in CO2 emissions over the entire lifecycle of a power plant, while carbon per tonne (CTP) is the market price for CO2. The product of these two metrics yields the carbon neutrality benefit, R. If the carbon emission reduction... If carbon emissions increase and the carbon trading price (CTP) rises, then R will increase, meaning the economic return for power plants under environmental policies will improve. Conversely, if carbon emission reductions decrease or carbon trading prices fall, carbon neutrality benefits will be affected. An increase in R (e.g., through more efficient emission reduction technologies or the use of more renewable energy), or if the carbon trading price (CTP) rises, means an increase in the economic benefits of carbon neutrality. A decrease in carbon neutrality benefits, or a decline in carbon per unit area (CTP), will lead to a decrease in carbon emissions (R), indicating a reduced economic benefit of the power plant in terms of carbon reduction, as a decrease in carbon neutrality benefits can reflect a reduction in the amount of carbon emissions reduced.

[0132] The formula for calculating the incremental cost of ecological impact is:

[0133] ;

[0134] in, The first pumped storage power station to be evaluated The increase in ecological impact costs within each operating year To reference the annual ecological impact costs, The ecological impact cost for year o;

[0135] ;

[0136] in, This represents the incremental cost of the ecological impact of the pumped storage power station throughout its entire life cycle, to be evaluated.

[0137] This represents the total increase in ecological impact costs over the entire life cycle of the power plant, reflecting the negative impacts of power plant operation on the ecological environment. It is compared with the ecological impact costs of a reference year. In comparison, it is possible to identify changes in ecological costs caused by changes in environmental factors and operational management. This primarily considers the costs of controlling environmental pollution resulting from carbon emissions. The increase in ecological impact cost for year O reflects the comparison between the ecological costs of operation in that year and those of a reference year. An increase in ecological impact cost each year leads to an increase in the total ecological impact cost of the power plant throughout its lifecycle; conversely, a decrease in ecological impact cost each year leads to a decrease in the total ecological impact cost of the power plant throughout its lifecycle. Increased carbon emissions may lead to more severe pollution of the surrounding environment, thus increasing the cost of pollution control. However, as carbon emission reductions increase, pollution of the surrounding environment decreases, and the corresponding cost of pollution control decreases. Therefore, the increase in ecological impact cost reflects the effectiveness of carbon emission reductions. The ecological impact cost for each year can be obtained from statistics and reports from government and environmental protection departments.

[0138] In this embodiment, the analytic hierarchy process specifically includes:

[0139] The carbon emission reduction, ecological impact cost increment, carbon neutrality benefits, and total production cost reduction of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated throughout its entire life cycle are set as evaluation indicators. A scoring method is set, which uses a scale of 1-5 to score the relative importance of the two indicators. 1 indicates that the two indicators are equally important, 3 indicates that the two indicators are important, 5 indicates that the two indicators are extremely important, and 2 and 4 are values ​​between the two above. The relative importance of each evaluation indicator is determined by expert scoring, which can be carried out through questionnaires or meetings.

[0140] Construct a judgment matrix based on expert ratings. For example, suppose the expert rating results are as follows:

[0141] ;

[0142] Where A is the judgment matrix, and the importance score in the i-th row and j-th column is represented as... , The matrix represents the importance score of indicator i relative to indicator j. Each row of the matrix represents the incremental ecological impact cost, carbon neutrality benefit, total reduction in production costs, and carbon emission reduction throughout the entire life cycle. Each column represents the incremental ecological impact cost, carbon neutrality benefit, total reduction in production costs, and carbon emission reduction throughout the entire life cycle.

[0143] For example, if experts believe the indicators Comparison Indicators More importantly, give Therefore, we can conclude that For example, such as The importance relationship with R is 3, that is... So R relative to The importance is , A value greater than 1 indicates that index i is more important. The reciprocal of the value indicates that the index j is relatively unimportant.

[0144] The formula for calculating the eigenvalues ​​and eigenvectors of the judgment matrix is ​​as follows:

[0145] ;

[0146] in, To determine the eigenvalues ​​of a matrix, To determine the eigenvectors of a matrix, the eigenvectors are... Each element corresponds to the weight of each indicator;

[0147] Consistency is verified by calculating the consistency index and the consistency ratio. The formula for calculating the consistency index is as follows:

[0148] ;

[0149] CI stands for Consistency Index. To determine the largest eigenvalue of a matrix, n is the dimension of the matrix;

[0150] The formula for calculating the consistency ratio is:

[0151] ;

[0152] Wherein, CR is the consistency ratio and RI is the random consistency index, which are obtained by looking up a table according to the matrix dimensions;

[0153] If the consistency ratio is less than 0.1, the judgment matrix is ​​considered consistent, and the comprehensive score of each evaluation indicator is calculated to assess the carbon reduction effect. If the consistency ratio is equal to or greater than 0.1, the judgment matrix is ​​analyzed, and the eigenvectors are normalized to obtain the normalized weight vector, represented as follows: Based on the weight vector and the judgment matrix, the consistency matrix is ​​calculated using the following formula:

[0154] ;

[0155] Where C is the consistency matrix, It determines the element in the i-th row and j-th column of the matrix. and It is the corresponding element in the weight vector;

[0156] Calculate the consistency deviation matrix to represent the deviation of each rating from the ideal consistency. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0157] ;

[0158] in, Indicates rating The greater the deviation from the ideal consistency, the more likely the rating is to be disputed;

[0159] Therefore, calculate the average deviation of each row or column in the consistency deviation matrix, find the row or column with the largest average deviation, and then find the largest element in that row or column. The corresponding rating The score with the largest discrepancy is considered the largest score. Adjustments should be made to this score. This can be done by having experts re-evaluate the item, or by averaging the scores for that row or column, replacing the largest discrepancy score. When calculating the average score, this largest discrepancy score must be excluded. or The diagonal elements;

[0160] When choosing to replace the score with the largest difference using either the row average score or the column average score, first determine the number of scores with the largest difference in the row and column containing the score with the largest difference. If the number of scores with the largest difference in the row containing the score with the largest difference is greater than the number of scores with the largest difference in the column containing the score with the largest difference, then the column average score is used for replacement; otherwise, the row average score is used for replacement. If the number of scores with the largest difference in the row and column containing the score with the largest difference is the same, then either the row average score or the column average score can be used for replacement.

[0161] The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) breaks down complex problems into multiple levels and indicators, enabling decision-makers to clearly identify the relationships and relative importance of various assessment indicators. This systematic approach effectively integrates multiple aspects of pumped-storage power plants, such as carbon emission reductions, incremental ecological impact costs, carbon neutrality benefits, and total production cost reductions, into a comprehensive assessment framework. The AHP combines quantitative scoring with expert qualitative judgment. Using a 1-5 rating scale, experts can score the importance of each assessment indicator based on their experience and expertise. This method quantifies subjective judgment, reduces the impact of uncertainty in the decision-making process, and thus makes the assessment results more reliable and actionable.

[0162] In this embodiment, evaluating the carbon emission reduction effect specifically includes:

[0163] The formula for calculating the overall score of each evaluation indicator is as follows:

[0164] ;

[0165] Where S is the overall score. These are the weight coefficients corresponding to each evaluation indicator, i.e., the values ​​of the first, second, third, and fourth items in the feature vector;

[0166] The overall score is compared with a preset threshold. If the overall score is higher than the preset threshold, the carbon emission reduction effect of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated throughout its entire life cycle is defined as excellent. If the overall score is lower than the preset threshold, the carbon emission reduction effect of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated throughout its entire life cycle is defined as poor.

[0167] S represents the comprehensive evaluation result of the power plant's carbon emission reduction effect over its entire life cycle. It is obtained by weighting and combining four evaluation indicators: carbon emission reduction, carbon neutrality benefits, incremental ecological impact costs, and total reduction in production costs. The weight of each indicator reflects its relative importance in the calculation of the comprehensive score. This comprehensive score provides a quantitative way to evaluate the power plant's carbon emission reduction effect, enabling decision-makers to make more rational judgments based on data. By comparing the comprehensive score with preset thresholds, a clear boundary between good and bad performance is established, facilitating the development of subsequent management and improvement measures.

[0168] R represents the economic benefits of the power plant in terms of carbon emission reduction. The higher the benefits, the more significant the results of the power plant's emission reduction measures. This reflects the effectiveness of the power plant in controlling production costs, and the reduced costs are crucial for improving the economic efficiency of the power plant. This indicates the actual effectiveness of the power plant in reducing carbon emissions; the greater the emission reduction, the greater the environmental contribution of the power plant. This represents the incremental cost of ecological impact; higher ecological impact costs will negatively impact the overall score, reflecting an increased burden on the ecological environment. If R... , An increase in noise will raise the overall score (S), indicating better carbon reduction performance of the power plant. If noise affects costs... An increase in the overall score (S) will lead to a decrease in the overall score (S), indicating a heavier environmental burden on the power plant.

[0169] R, , The overall score is positively correlated with these three variables; as these three variables increase, the overall score increases. The increased carbon neutrality benefit R represents the increased economic return the power plant receives under environmental policies, along with lower production costs. It improved the economic efficiency of the power plant and resulted in greater carbon emission reductions. This demonstrates the power plant's better achievement of emission reduction targets. The overall score is inversely correlated with the ecological impact cost. When the incremental ecological impact cost increases, the overall score decreases. This indicates that the negative impact of the power plant on the ecological environment during operation is increasing, resulting in a deduction in the overall assessment and reflecting that the sustainability of the power plant is compromised.

[0170] The above formulas are all dimensionless calculations. The formulas are derived from software simulations based on a large amount of collected data to obtain the most recent real-world results. The preset parameters in the formulas are set by those skilled in the art according to the actual situation.

[0171] The above embodiments can be implemented, in whole or in part, by software, hardware, firmware, or any other combination thereof. When implemented in software, the above embodiments can be implemented, in whole or in part, as a computer program product. Those skilled in the art will recognize that the units and algorithm steps of the various examples described in conjunction with the embodiments disclosed herein can be implemented by electronic hardware, or a combination of computer software and electronic hardware. Whether these functions are implemented in hardware or software depends on the specific application and design constraints of the technical solution.

[0172] The units described as separate components may or may not be physically separate. The components shown as units may or may not be physical units; they may be located in one place or distributed across multiple network units. Some or all of the units can be selected to achieve the purpose of this embodiment, depending on actual needs.

[0173] The above description is merely a specific embodiment of this application, but the scope of protection of this application is not limited thereto. Any changes or substitutions that can be easily conceived by those skilled in the art within the scope of the technology disclosed in this application should be included within the scope of protection of this application.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating the dynamic carbon emission reduction effect of a pumped storage power station throughout its entire life cycle, characterized in that, The specific steps include: Step 1: Obtain relevant data of decommissioned pumped storage power stations. The relevant data includes service life, types and quantities of construction materials, rated power generation capacity, waste transportation parameters, carbon emissions during maintenance and decommissioning. Use service life, types and quantities of construction materials, rated power generation capacity, and waste transportation parameters as inputs, and the corresponding carbon emissions during maintenance and decommissioning as labels to construct a decommissioning carbon emission prediction model. Based on the trained model, obtain the carbon emissions of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated during maintenance and decommissioning. Step 2: Analyze the types and quantities of materials used during the construction phase of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated in order to obtain the carbon emissions of the pumped storage power station during the construction phase. Step 3: Take the power station connected to the same power grid as the pumped storage power station to be evaluated as the radiation power station, obtain the annual total carbon emissions of the radiation power station during the operation of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated, and obtain the reference annual total carbon emissions of the radiation power station when there is no pumped storage power station to be evaluated. The method for obtaining the reference annual total carbon emissions of a radiation power station when there is no pumped storage power station to be evaluated is as follows: obtain the electricity demand of the year in which the annual total carbon emissions are located from the power grid, select the year that is closest to the electricity demand of the previous years of pumped storage power stations without assessment as the reference year, and use the annual total carbon emissions of the radiation power station in the reference year as the reference annual total carbon emissions of that year. Step 4: Calculate the carbon emission reduction of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated throughout its entire life cycle by combining the design life, annual total carbon emissions, reference annual total carbon emissions, and carbon emissions during the construction, maintenance, and decommissioning phases. The calculation of the carbon emission reduction over the entire life cycle of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated includes: Based on the carbon emissions of the pumped storage power station under evaluation during the construction, maintenance, and decommissioning phases, the formula for calculating the total carbon emissions of the pumped storage power station over its entire life cycle is as follows: in, The total carbon emissions of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated over its entire life cycle. This refers to carbon emissions during the construction phase. The carbon emissions during the maintenance phase are output by the decommissioning carbon emission prediction model. The carbon emissions during the decommissioning phase are output by the carbon emission prediction model for decommissioning. The formula for calculating the carbon emission reduction for each year is: in, For the carbon emission reduction in year 0, This is the reference annual total carbon emissions for year 0; The formula for calculating the total carbon emission reduction of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated over its design life is as follows: in, This represents the total carbon emission reduction over the entire life cycle of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated. For the pumped storage power station to be evaluated, the number of years of operation. Y represents the design life; The formula for obtaining the carbon emission reduction of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated over its entire life cycle is: in, The carbon emission reduction of the pumped storage power station throughout its entire life cycle to be evaluated; Step 5: Use the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to analyze the carbon emission reduction, ecological impact cost increment, carbon neutrality benefits, and total production cost reduction of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated throughout its entire life cycle, so as to comprehensively evaluate the carbon emission reduction effect of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated throughout its entire life cycle.

2. The method for evaluating the dynamic carbon emission reduction effect of a pumped storage power station throughout its entire life cycle, as described in claim 1, is characterized in that... The specific steps involved in constructing the decommissioning carbon emission prediction model are as follows: The service life refers to the number of years the power station has been in operation since its construction, measured in years. The waste transportation parameters include the waste transportation method and the waste transportation distance. The relevant data collected from decommissioned pumped storage power stations are divided into training and validation sets. A linear regression model in machine learning is used as the basic model. The service life, types and quantities of construction materials, rated power generation capacity, and waste transportation parameters from the training set are input into the model to train the linear regression model and output the carbon emissions during the maintenance and decommissioning phases. A decommissioning carbon emission prediction model is constructed, and the mean square error data in the validation set is monitored. If the mean square error of the validation set changes by less than 0.01 in several consecutive iterations, the model training is considered complete. The service life, types and quantities of construction materials, rated power generation capacity, and waste transportation parameters of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated are input into the decommissioning carbon emission prediction model that has been trained, and the carbon emissions during the maintenance phase and the decommissioning phase are obtained from the model output.

3. The method for evaluating the dynamic carbon emission reduction effect of a pumped storage power station throughout its entire life cycle, as described in claim 1, is characterized in that... Obtaining the carbon emissions of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated during the construction phase specifically includes: The formula for calculating the carbon emissions of the pumped storage power station under evaluation during the construction phase is as follows: This formula involves statistically analyzing the types and quantities of materials used during the construction phase of the power station. in, This refers to carbon emissions during the construction phase. For the first phase of construction The amount of each material used For the first The unit carbon emission factor of each material, x is the index of the material type in the construction phase, and I is the total number of material types in the construction phase. .

4. The method for evaluating the dynamic carbon emission reduction effect of a pumped storage power station throughout its entire life cycle, as described in claim 1, is characterized in that... The method for obtaining the annual total carbon emissions of the radiant power station during the operation of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated is as follows: The annual carbon emissions of each radiation power plant are calculated using the following formula: in, For the first pumped storage power station to be evaluated The annual carbon emissions of the a-th radiation power plant within a certain number of operating years. For the first pumped storage power station to be evaluated Within each operating year, the annual power generation of the a-th radiation power station is: Let be the unit electricity carbon emission factor of the a-th radiation power station, where 'a' is the index of the radiation power station and 'o' is the index of the operating year. The formula for calculating the annual total carbon emissions of a radiation power plant is as follows: Where, r For the first pumped storage power station to be evaluated The total annual carbon emissions of the radiation power plants within each operating year, where A is the number of radiation power plants, and .

5. The method for evaluating the dynamic carbon emission reduction effect of a pumped storage power station throughout its entire life cycle, as described in claim 4, is characterized in that... Obtaining the incremental ecological impact costs, carbon neutrality benefits, and total production cost reductions for the entire life cycle of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated specifically includes: First, obtain the incremental ecological impact costs, carbon neutrality benefits, and total reduction in production costs for the pumped storage power station to be evaluated throughout its entire life cycle. Specifically, this includes: Obtain the annual production cost data of the radiation power plant, compare it with the production cost of a reference year, and calculate the cost reduction for each year. The calculation formula is as follows: The formula for calculating the annual production cost of each radiation power station is as follows: in, The pumped storage power station to be evaluated The annual production cost of the radiation power plant within each operating year. The production cost of the a-th radiation power station in the o-th operating year; in, This represents the production cost reduction for the pumped storage power station to be evaluated in its 0th operating year. For reference annual production costs; The formula for calculating the total reduction in production costs over the entire life cycle of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated is as follows: in, This represents the total reduction in production costs throughout the entire lifecycle of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated. The formula for calculating the carbon neutrality benefit of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated over its entire life cycle is as follows: Where R represents the carbon neutrality benefit of the pumped storage power station over its entire life cycle to be evaluated. The CTP represents the carbon emission reduction of the pumped storage power station over its entire life cycle, which is to be evaluated. The formula for calculating the incremental cost of ecological impact is: in, The first pumped storage power station to be evaluated The incremental ecological impact cost within each operating year To reference the annual ecological impact costs, The ecological impact cost for year o; in, This represents the incremental cost of the ecological impact of the pumped storage power station throughout its entire life cycle, to be evaluated.

6. The method for evaluating the dynamic carbon emission reduction effect of a pumped storage power station throughout its entire life cycle, as described in claim 5, is characterized in that... The analytic hierarchy process specifically includes: The carbon emission reduction, ecological impact cost increment, carbon neutrality benefits, and total production cost reduction of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated throughout its entire life cycle are set as evaluation indicators. A scoring method is set, and the relative importance of each evaluation indicator is determined by expert scoring. A judgment matrix is ​​constructed based on the expert scores, and the eigenvalues ​​and eigenvectors of the judgment matrix are calculated. Consistency is checked by calculating the consistency index and consistency ratio. If the consistency ratio is less than 0.1, the judgment matrix is ​​considered consistent, and the comprehensive score of each evaluation indicator is calculated to evaluate the carbon emission reduction effect. If the consistency ratio is equal to or higher than 0.1, the judgment matrix is ​​readjusted.

7. The method for evaluating the dynamic carbon emission reduction effect of a pumped storage power station throughout its entire life cycle, as described in claim 6, is characterized in that... The assessment of carbon emission reduction effectiveness specifically includes: The formula for calculating the overall score of each evaluation indicator is as follows: Where S is the overall score. These are the weight coefficients corresponding to each evaluation indicator, i.e., the values ​​of the first, second, third, and fourth items in the feature vector; The overall score is compared with a preset threshold. If the overall score is higher than the preset threshold, the carbon emission reduction effect of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated throughout its entire life cycle is defined as excellent. If the overall score is lower than the preset threshold, the carbon emission reduction effect of the pumped storage power station to be evaluated throughout its entire life cycle is defined as poor.

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