Submarine cable section type selection method and device based on submarine cable dynamic life prediction and product

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of offshore wind power and flexible direct current power transmission, and discloses a submarine cable section type selection method and device based on submarine cable dynamic life prediction and a product. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring a sending power long-term prediction sequence and a submarine cable section design current-carrying capacity sequence of a to-be-predicted submarine cable in a to-be-built offshore wind field; according to the output power long-term prediction sequence and a submarine cable section design current-carrying capacity sequence, determining a first submarine cable section; on the basis of the first submarine cable section and a preset service life end point, according to the sending power long-term prediction sequence, predicting the operation service life of the to-be-predicted submarine cable, and obtaining an operation service life prediction value of the to-be-predicted submarine cable; and comparing the operation life prediction value with a preset submarine cable design life value of the to-be-predicted submarine cable, and determining a target cross section of the to-be-predicted submarine cable according to a comparison result. By considering the dynamic temperature characteristic of the submarine cable, the section type selection of the submarine cable is carried out on the premise of guaranteeing the service life of the submarine cable, and the utilization rate of the submarine cable and the engineering economy of offshore wind power transmission are effectively improved.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The present application relates to the field of offshore wind power and flexible DC power transmission, and particularly relates to a method and device for selecting a cross section of a submarine cable based on dynamic life prediction of the submarine cable, and a product. BACKGROUND

[0002] In recent years, offshore wind power has gradually shown the characteristics of large scale and clustering, and the flexible DC transmission mode has gradually become the mainstream transmission mode for deep-sea offshore wind power, and the total capacity of the transmission project has reached or even exceeded 2GW. In order to meet the capacity demand of the transmission project, the cross section of the flexible DC transmission submarine cable is increasing day by day, and currently it has reached 2500mm 2 ~3000mm 2 The cost of long-distance and large-section DC submarine cables is high. According to the estimation, for an offshore wind power transmission project with an offshore distance of 130km and a wing ratio of 1:3, the proportion of the transmission submarine cable in the total cost of the transmission project can reach more than 40%. In order to adapt to the development trend of the planning capacity of offshore wind farms, in the future, larger flow capacity and higher transmission capacity DC submarine cables need to be developed, and the cost of the transmission submarine cable will further increase. Therefore, reasonably reducing the cost of the transmission submarine cable has become one of the key problems to be solved in the offshore wind power industry.

[0003] The unit length cost of the submarine cable is mainly affected by the conductor cross section. In the design stage, the main basis for selecting the cross section of the submarine cable of the offshore wind power transmission is the maximum flow capacity of the bottleneck section of the submarine cable. The calculation method of the flow capacity is given in the DL / T 5490-2014 standard, and the maximum flow capacity of the conductor is solved according to the thermal balance state of the heat generation and heat dissipation of the submarine cable when the conductor temperature is taken as the upper limit of the design temperature. When the submarine cable is selected, the operating flow capacity of the submarine cable needs to be calculated according to the maximum capacity of the wind farm, and then the smallest cross section cable with the maximum flow capacity greater than the operating flow capacity of the bottleneck section is selected.

[0004] The above selection method can ensure that the submarine cable does not exceed the upper limit of the design temperature during operation, so as to prolong the operating life of the submarine cable as much as possible. However, engineering experience shows that the operating temperature of the submarine cable fluctuates with the output fluctuation of the offshore wind farm, and the temperature is generally much lower than the upper limit of the design temperature. The short-time overload of the submarine cable has limited effect on the operating life of the submarine cable. Therefore, the existing submarine cable selection method is too conservative in limiting the flow capacity of the submarine cable, and the cross section selection result usually has a large margin, resulting in low utilization rate of the submarine cable. In the current situation of increasing investment in deep-sea wind power transmission submarine cables, the waste of investment caused by the low utilization rate of the submarine cable cannot be ignored.

[0005] In summary, considering the dynamic characteristics of the operating temperature of the submarine cable and improving the existing submarine cable life prediction model, the cross section selection method of the submarine cable is optimized from the perspective of dynamic life prediction of the submarine cable under the premise of guaranteeing the operating life of the submarine cable, which improves the utilization rate of the submarine cable and the economic efficiency of the offshore wind power transmission project. SUMMARY

[0006] The application provides a submarine cable cross section selection method, device and product based on dynamic life prediction of a submarine cable.

[0007] In a first aspect, the application provides a submarine cable cross section selection method based on dynamic life prediction of a submarine cable, which comprises: obtaining a long-term prediction sequence of a sending power of a to-be-predicted submarine cable in a to-be-built offshore wind farm and a submarine cable cross section design load flow sequence; determining a first submarine cable cross section according to the long-term prediction sequence of the sending power and the submarine cable cross section design load flow sequence; predicting an operation life of the to-be-predicted submarine cable according to the long-term prediction sequence of the sending power based on the first submarine cable cross section and a preset life end point, to obtain an operation life prediction value of the to-be-predicted submarine cable; comparing the operation life prediction value with a preset submarine cable design life value of the to-be-predicted submarine cable, and determining a target cross section of the to-be-predicted submarine cable according to a comparison result.

[0008] The submarine cable cross section selection method based on dynamic life prediction of a submarine cable provided by the application can simulate the real working state of the submarine cable by obtaining the long-term prediction sequence of the sending power of the to-be-built wind farm. Further, the submarine cable can bear the actual load by obtaining the submarine cable cross section design load flow sequence, thereby providing a reference standard for subsequent submarine cable cross section selection. Further, the first submarine cable cross section that can basically bear the actual operation load is screened out based on the long-term prediction sequence of the sending power and the submarine cable cross section design load flow sequence, and is used as a specific analysis object for subsequent submarine cable life prediction, which not only meets the basic load flow demand, but also avoids the waste of initial investment caused by directly selecting a large cross section in the traditional method. Further, the life is calculated by the dynamic aging model in combination with the key parameters of the first submarine cable cross section and the power sequence, which breaks the assumption of constant temperature in the traditional model, makes the prediction result more consistent with the actual working condition of the submarine cable, and significantly reduces the error. Further, the operation life prediction value is compared with the preset submarine cable design life value, and the target cross section that meets the life requirement and has the smallest cross section is screened out, which can greatly reduce the error of submarine cable cross section selection. Further, under the premise of ensuring that the submarine cable meets the design life, the cross section specification is maximally reduced, the unit length cost of the submarine cable is reduced, the investment waste is reduced, the utilization rate of the submarine cable is improved, and the engineering economy of offshore wind power sending is improved. Meanwhile, the life requirement is used as a core determination standard to replace the traditional load flow redundancy standard, a replicable selection process is formed, the subjectivity of experience-based selection in engineering is avoided, and the consistency and scientificity of the selection result are improved.

[0009] In an optional implementation, the first submarine cable cross section is determined according to the long-term prediction sequence of the sending power and the submarine cable cross section design load flow sequence, which comprises: Based on the long-term power transmission prediction sequence, the predicted current carrying capacity sequence of the submarine cable to be predicted is determined; based on the predicted current carrying capacity sequence and the design current carrying capacity sequence of the submarine cable cross-section, the first submarine cable cross-section is determined.

[0010] The submarine cable cross-section selection method based on dynamic lifespan prediction provided by this invention calculates the current carrying capacity using power sequences, transforming wind farm power fluctuations into electrical load fluctuations of the submarine cable. This accurately reflects the actual load state of the submarine cable at different time steps, clearly defining the extreme load requirements of the cable and avoiding the load assessment bias caused by traditional methods that only use static maximum power to calculate the current carrying capacity. Furthermore, by comparing the predicted current carrying capacity sequence and the designed current carrying capacity sequence of the submarine cable cross-section, a first submarine cable cross-section capable of basically bearing the actual operating load is determined. This establishes a preliminary correlation between abstract submarine cable current carrying capacity data and specific cross-section specifications, preparing for subsequent submarine cable lifespan prediction.

[0011] In one optional implementation, the predicted service life value is compared with the preset design service life value of the submarine cable to be predicted, and the target cross-section of the submarine cable to be predicted is determined based on the comparison result, including: When the initial predicted service life is greater than the preset design service life of the submarine cable to be predicted, the second submarine cable cross section is determined. The area of ​​the second submarine cable cross section is smaller than the area of ​​the first submarine cable cross section. Based on the second submarine cable cross section, the step of obtaining the predicted service life is returned. This process is repeated until the predicted service life is less than the preset design service life of the submarine cable, and the target cross section of the submarine cable to be predicted is obtained.

[0012] The submarine cable cross-section selection method based on dynamic life prediction provided by this invention optimizes the selection of submarine cable cross-section by reducing the cross-section when the initial life prediction value is greater than the design life value of the submarine cable to be predicted. Under the premise of ensuring that the operating life of the submarine cable is not lower than the preset design life, the cross-sectional area is reduced to the maximum extent. After each reduction of the cross-section, the life prediction step is returned to re-verify, rather than blindly reducing the cross-section. This achieves a balance between meeting performance standards and minimizing costs, and significantly reduces the cost of submarine cable procurement and laying.

[0013] In one optional implementation, the predicted service life value is compared with the preset design service life value of the submarine cable to be predicted, and the target cross-section of the submarine cable to be predicted is determined based on the comparison result, further comprising: When the initial predicted service life is less than the preset design service life of the submarine cable, the third submarine cable cross section is determined. The area of ​​the third submarine cable cross section is greater than the area of ​​the first submarine cable cross section. Based on the third submarine cable cross section, the step of obtaining the predicted service life is returned. This process is repeated until the predicted service life is greater than the preset design service life of the submarine cable, and the target cross section of the submarine cable to be predicted is obtained.

[0014] The submarine cable cross-section selection method based on dynamic life prediction provided by this invention can improve the heat dissipation capacity of the submarine cable and quickly improve its life performance when the initial predicted service life is less than the preset design life of the submarine cable. This avoids the risk of failure due to insufficient lifespan during operation. Furthermore, by gradually increasing the cross-sectional area for optimization, and only increasing to the next cross-sectional specification and re-verifying the lifespan each time during the iteration process, until the lifespan of the submarine cable just meets the standard, the minimum cross-section that meets the life design requirements can be accurately found, avoiding the cost investment caused by excessively large cross-sections.

[0015] In one optional implementation, based on the first submarine cable cross-section and a preset lifespan end point, the operational lifespan of the submarine cable to be predicted is predicted according to a long-term power transmission prediction sequence, resulting in a predicted operational lifespan value for the submarine cable to be predicted, including: A dynamic aging model of the submarine cable considering its dynamic temperature characteristics is obtained. Based on the first cross-section of the submarine cable, a set of key parameters of the submarine cable to be predicted is obtained. According to the long-term predicted sequence of transmitted power and the set of key parameters of the submarine cable, the aging rate of the submarine cable to be predicted is evaluated using the dynamic aging model of the submarine cable, and the first long-term decay rate sequence of the performance indicators of the submarine cable to be predicted is determined. Based on the preset end point of life, the operating life of the submarine cable to be predicted is predicted according to the first long-term decay rate sequence and multiple initial performance indicator values ​​of the submarine cable to be predicted, and the predicted operating life value of the submarine cable to be predicted is obtained.

[0016] The submarine cable cross-section selection method based on dynamic lifespan prediction provided by this invention breaks the assumption of constant temperature and solves the problem of unreasonable boundary conditions in existing models by obtaining a dynamic aging model of the submarine cable that takes into account its dynamic temperature characteristics. Furthermore, by combining the actual attenuation rate under dynamic temperature with initial performance indicators, the lifespan can be calculated with a scientifically preset endpoint, which can significantly reduce prediction errors and effectively improve the accuracy of lifespan prediction for submarine cables in operation. This makes the lifespan prediction values ​​more consistent with engineering realities, and the selection of submarine cables based on the predicted operational lifespan values ​​improves the scientific nature of submarine cable selection.

[0017] In one optional implementation, based on the long-term predicted sequence of transmitted power and the key parameter set of the submarine cable, the aging rate of the submarine cable to be predicted is evaluated using a dynamic aging model of the submarine cable, and the long-term attenuation rate sequence of the performance indicators of the submarine cable to be predicted is determined, including: Based on the long-term power transmission prediction sequence, the predicted current carrying capacity sequence of the submarine cable to be predicted is determined; based on the predicted current carrying capacity sequence and the key parameter set of the submarine cable, the temperature rise sequence of the submarine cable to be predicted is calculated and determined; based on the temperature rise sequence and the target temperature value sequence, the predicted dynamic operating temperature characteristic value sequence of the submarine cable to be predicted is determined, wherein the target temperature value sequence includes multiple maximum external ambient temperatures of the submarine cable to be predicted within different time steps along the cable path; based on the predicted dynamic operating temperature characteristic value sequence, the aging rate of the submarine cable to be predicted is evaluated using the submarine cable dynamic aging model, and the long-term decay rate sequence of the performance indicators of the submarine cable to be predicted is determined.

[0018] The submarine cable cross-section selection method based on dynamic lifespan prediction provided by this invention can simulate the power fluctuations of a wind farm throughout its entire lifecycle by acquiring a long-term predicted sequence of transmitted power. Furthermore, by calculating the current carrying capacity using the long-term predicted sequence of transmitted power, wind farm operating data can be converted into submarine cable electrical parameters, providing direct input for subsequent temperature calculations and solving the problem that power data cannot be directly used for temperature analysis. Furthermore, by combining the current carrying capacity with key submarine cable parameters to calculate temperature rise, the impact of current carrying capacity changes on temperature rise can be accurately reflected, thus avoiding the coarse processing of assuming a maximum temperature and making temperature calculations more physically reasonable. Furthermore, by combining the submarine cable temperature rise value with multiple maximum external ambient temperatures of the submarine cable under prediction at different time steps, a complete dynamic operating temperature characteristic value sequence can be formed, restoring the temperature fluctuation pattern of the submarine cable within a day / week, making subsequent predictions more consistent with the actual operating environment of the submarine cable, thereby effectively improving the accuracy of submarine cable lifespan prediction. Furthermore, by taking dynamic temperature as input, the aging rate of submarine cables is evaluated and the first long-term decay rate sequence is determined through a dynamic aging model of submarine cables that takes into account the dynamic temperature characteristics of submarine cables. This can reflect the impact of temperature fluctuations on material aging in real time and accurately, and thus accurately predict the aging rhythm of submarine cables throughout their entire life cycle. This avoids design deviations caused by static evaluation and helps to provide a scientific basis for submarine cable selection.

[0019] Secondly, this invention provides a submarine cable cross-section selection device based on submarine cable dynamic life prediction, the device comprising: The data acquisition module is used to acquire the long-term predicted power transmission sequence and the design current carrying capacity sequence of the submarine cable to be predicted in the offshore wind farm to be built; the first submarine cable cross-section determination module is used to determine the first submarine cable cross-section based on the long-term predicted power transmission sequence and the design current carrying capacity sequence of the submarine cable cross-section; the submarine cable life prediction module is used to predict the operating life of the submarine cable to be predicted based on the first submarine cable cross-section and the preset life end point, according to the long-term predicted power transmission sequence, and obtain the predicted operating life value of the submarine cable to be predicted; the submarine cable cross-section selection module is used to compare the predicted operating life value with the preset design life value of the submarine cable to be predicted, and determine the target cross-section of the submarine cable to be predicted based on the comparison result. The target cross-section is the smallest cross-section where the predicted operating life value is greater than the preset design life value of the submarine cable.

[0020] Thirdly, the present invention provides an electronic device, comprising: a memory and a processor, wherein the memory and the processor are communicatively connected to each other, the memory stores computer instructions, and the processor executes the computer instructions to perform the submarine cable cross-section selection method based on submarine cable dynamic life prediction as described in the first aspect or any corresponding embodiment.

[0021] Fourthly, the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium storing computer instructions for causing a computer to execute the submarine cable cross-section selection method based on submarine cable dynamic life prediction as described in the first aspect or any corresponding embodiment.

[0022] Fifthly, the present invention provides a computer program product, including computer instructions, which are used to cause a computer to execute the submarine cable cross-section selection method based on submarine cable dynamic life prediction as described in the first aspect or any corresponding embodiment. Attached Figure Description

[0023] To more clearly illustrate the specific embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the specific embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present invention. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained from these drawings without creative effort.

[0024] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram of an application scenario according to an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the first method for selecting submarine cable cross-sections based on dynamic life prediction of submarine cables according to an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the second process of the submarine cable cross-section selection method based on submarine cable dynamic life prediction according to an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 4 This is a structural block diagram of a submarine cable cross-section selection device based on dynamic life prediction of submarine cables according to an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 5 This is a schematic diagram of the hardware structure of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0025] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0026] It is understood that before using the technical solutions disclosed in the various embodiments of the present invention, users should be informed of the types, scope of use, and usage scenarios of the personal information involved in the present invention and their authorization should be obtained in accordance with relevant laws and regulations through appropriate means.

[0027] The terms "first" and "second" are used for descriptive purposes only and should not be construed as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly specifying the number of technical features indicated. Thus, a feature defined as "first" or "second" may explicitly or implicitly include one or more of that feature. In the description of this invention, "a plurality of" means two or more, unless otherwise explicitly specified.

[0028] As an optional application scenario of this invention, the specific application environment architecture or specific hardware architecture on which the submarine cable cross-section selection method based on submarine cable dynamic life prediction depends is described here. For example... Figure 1 As shown, the architecture includes a computer 101, a mobile terminal 102, and a server 103, and terminal devices such as the computer 101 and the mobile terminal 102 are connected to the server 103 through a network 110.

[0029] Specifically, the terminal device can be a smartphone, tablet, laptop, PDA, desktop computer, game console, smart TV, smart wearable device, in-vehicle terminal, VR (Virtual Reality) device, AR (Augmented Reality) device, etc. Server 103 can be a standalone physical server, a server cluster, a distributed system, or a cloud server providing cloud services. Network 110 can be a wired or wireless network, examples of which include, but are not limited to, the Internet, corporate intranet, local area network, wide area network, mobile communication network, and combinations thereof.

[0030] To address the problems of overly conservative current submarine cable selection methods and significant investment waste, research is needed on accurate prediction of submarine cable service life and to reasonably revise existing selection methods. However, current research still has several shortcomings in predicting the service life of XLPE cables, mainly as follows: First, although the academic community has proposed a variety of XLPE cable service life prediction models, the existing methods have not been tested by engineering projects and have not formed a universally recognized, effective and reasonable method for predicting the service life of XLPE cables. Secondly, existing methods for predicting the service life of XLPE cables are mostly designed for the operating conditions of onshore cables. Due to the differences in operating conditions, existing models cannot be directly used for predicting the service life of submarine cables. Third, existing life prediction models often assume that the cable operates continuously at its maximum operating temperature, treating the cable temperature as a constant during calculations. However, in actual operating conditions, the operating temperature of submarine cables varies with current carrying capacity, making it a variable, and is generally much lower than the maximum operating temperature. Unreasonable boundary conditions lead to results from existing life prediction models that are often shorter than actual engineering experience, thus providing insufficient guidance for engineering practice.

[0031] In recent years, some studies have proposed optimization methods for submarine cable cross-section selection based on submarine cable life prediction. However, these methods still use the maximum possible operating temperature of the submarine cable as the boundary condition for life prediction, without incorporating the dynamic characteristics of the submarine cable's operating temperature, and are not fundamentally different from traditional selection methods.

[0032] This invention provides a method for selecting submarine cable cross-sections based on dynamic life prediction. It considers the dynamic characteristics of submarine cable operating temperature and improves the existing submarine cable life prediction model. Under the premise of ensuring the service life of submarine cables, it optimizes the submarine cable cross-section selection method from the perspective of dynamic life prediction, which is of great significance for improving the utilization rate of submarine cables and improving the economic efficiency of offshore wind power transmission projects.

[0033] According to an embodiment of the present invention, a method for selecting submarine cable cross-section based on dynamic life prediction of submarine cables is provided. It should be noted that the steps shown in the flowchart in the accompanying drawings can be executed in a computer system such as a set of computer-executable instructions. Furthermore, although a logical order is shown in the flowchart, in some cases, the steps shown or described may be executed in a different order than that shown here.

[0034] This embodiment provides a method for selecting submarine cable cross-sections based on dynamic life prediction of submarine cables, which can be used in the aforementioned mobile terminals, such as mobile phones and tablets. Figure 2 This is a flowchart of a submarine cable cross-section selection method based on dynamic life prediction of submarine cables according to an embodiment of the present invention, as shown below. Figure 2 As shown, the process includes the following steps: Step S201: Obtain the long-term prediction sequence of the transmission power of the submarine cable to be predicted in the offshore wind farm to be built and the design current carrying capacity sequence of the submarine cable cross section.

[0035] In one optional embodiment, a wind farm to be built refers to an offshore wind farm project that has completed preliminary preparations such as planning and design and project approval, has clear construction goals and technical solutions, but has not yet formally commenced offshore wind power transmission engineering (including core construction stages such as laying transmission cables and installing related equipment), and has not yet entered the actual operation stage. The submarine cable cross-section design current carrying capacity sequence refers to a sequence composed of multiple preset current carrying capacity values ​​for the submarine cables to be predicted.

[0036] Furthermore, the long-term power transmission forecast series represents a continuous data set that reflects the dynamic changes in the power transmitted via submarine cables over the entire life cycle (typically 20-25 years) of a planned offshore wind farm, derived in advance through wind resource assessment, engineering planning, and power fluctuation analysis. Power transmission represents the actual electrical power delivered from the offshore wind farm to the power grid through the transmission system, and is a core indicator for measuring the wind farm's effective power supply capacity to the grid.

[0037] In one optional embodiment, for a wind farm to be built, the long-term forecast sequence of the power output of the offshore wind farm to be built can be obtained indirectly by combining numerical weather forecast data and wind turbine characteristics with a wind resource assessment model.

[0038] Step S202: Determine the first submarine cable cross section based on the long-term forecast sequence of transmitted power and the design current carrying capacity sequence of the submarine cable cross section.

[0039] In one optional embodiment, the first submarine cable cross-section represents the initial value for submarine cable selection, which is the minimum cross-section that meets the minimum current carrying capacity requirement of the submarine cable.

[0040] Specifically, based on the obtained long-term power transmission forecast sequence, and based on the actual load demand of the wind farm to be built, the long-term forecast power is correlated with the selection of submarine cable cross-section, thereby determining the first submarine cable cross-section that meets the minimum current carrying capacity requirement of the submarine cable, which serves as the specific analysis object for subsequent submarine cable life prediction. This not only meets the basic current carrying capacity requirement, but also avoids the initial investment waste caused by directly selecting a large cross-section in the traditional method.

[0041] Step S203: Based on the first submarine cable cross-section and the preset lifespan end point, the operating lifespan of the submarine cable to be predicted is predicted according to the long-term prediction sequence of the transmitted power, and the predicted operating lifespan value of the submarine cable to be predicted is obtained.

[0042] In one optional embodiment, the preset end point of submarine cable life refers to the threshold value of the core performance indicators that is pre-set in the submarine cable operation life prediction to determine whether the submarine cable has reached its service life limit.

[0043] Specifically, by restoring the dynamic correlation of "load-temperature-aging" in the actual operation of the submarine cable, taking the preset end of life as the judgment target, and combining the long-term prediction sequence of the transmitted power, the time required for the core performance indicators of the submarine cable under the first submarine cable cross-section to decay from the current state to the preset end of life can be calculated, and thus the predicted value of the operating life of the submarine cable to be predicted can be obtained.

[0044] Step S204: Compare the predicted service life value with the preset design service life value of the submarine cable to be predicted, and determine the target cross section of the submarine cable to be predicted based on the comparison results.

[0045] In one optional embodiment, the target cross-section of the submarine cable to be predicted is the smallest cross-section whose predicted service life is greater than the preset submarine cable design life.

[0046] Specifically, the predicted service life value is compared with the preset design service life value of the submarine cable to be predicted. Based on the selection logic of prioritizing reliability and secondarily considering economy, the service life prediction results are used as the criterion to eliminate sections with insufficient service life or excessive redundancy, and finally determine the target section that balances service life and cost.

[0047] The submarine cable cross-section selection method based on dynamic lifespan prediction provided in this embodiment can simulate the actual working state of the submarine cable by obtaining the long-term predicted sequence of the transmitted power of the wind farm to be built. Furthermore, by obtaining the design current-carrying capacity sequence of the submarine cable cross-section, it is determined whether the submarine cable can withstand the actual load, providing a reference standard for subsequent submarine cable cross-section selection. Further, based on the long-term predicted transmitted power sequence and the design current-carrying capacity sequence of the submarine cable cross-section, a first submarine cable cross-section capable of basically bearing the actual operating load is selected as the specific analysis object for subsequent submarine cable lifespan prediction, which not only meets the basic current-carrying capacity requirements but also avoids the initial investment waste caused by directly selecting a large cross-section in traditional methods. Furthermore, by combining the key parameters and power sequence of the first submarine cable cross-section, the lifespan is calculated through a dynamic aging model, breaking the assumption of constant temperature in traditional models, making the prediction results more consistent with the actual working conditions of the submarine cable, and significantly reducing errors. Furthermore, by comparing the predicted service life with the preset design service life of the submarine cable, and selecting the target cross-section with the smallest cross-section that meets the service life requirement, the error in selecting the submarine cable cross-section can be significantly reduced. Moreover, while ensuring that the submarine cable meets the design service life, the cross-section specifications are minimized, reducing the cost per unit length of the submarine cable, reducing investment waste, and improving the utilization rate of the submarine cable and the economic efficiency of offshore wind power transmission projects. At the same time, using service life compliance as the core criterion replaces the traditional current carrying capacity redundancy standard, forming a replicable selection process, avoiding the subjectivity of relying on experience in engineering selection, and improving the consistency and scientific nature of the selection results.

[0048] In some optional embodiments, step S202 above includes: Step S2021: Determine the predicted current carrying capacity sequence of the submarine cable to be predicted based on the long-term prediction sequence of the transmitted power.

[0049] In one optional embodiment, the time step for each calculation is first determined, and the submarine cable current carrying capacity within a step is calculated based on the long-term prediction sequence of wind farm power output, DC submarine cable voltage and AC submarine cable voltage. Then, the submarine cable predicted current carrying capacity sequence is further calculated.

[0050] The formula for calculating the current carrying capacity of submarine cables is shown in the following relationship (1): (1) In the formula, I Current carrying capacity of submarine cables; S This refers to the wind farm power. This is the DC submarine cable voltage; This is the voltage for the AC submarine cable.

[0051] Step S2022: Determine the first submarine cable cross section based on the predicted current carrying capacity sequence and the designed current carrying capacity sequence of the submarine cable cross section.

[0052] In one optional embodiment, based on the submarine cable's maximum current carrying capacity sequence and the submarine cable's cross-sectional design current carrying capacity sequence, the smallest cross-section that makes the submarine cable's cross-sectional design current carrying capacity greater than the submarine cable's maximum current carrying capacity sequence is selected as the first submarine cable cross-section.

[0053] In some optional embodiments, step S204 above includes: Step a1: When the initial predicted service life is greater than the preset design service life of the submarine cable to be predicted, determine the second submarine cable cross section.

[0054] In one alternative embodiment, the area of ​​the second submarine cable cross-section is smaller than the area of ​​the first submarine cable cross-section.

[0055] In one optional embodiment, when the initial predicted lifespan is greater than the predicted design lifespan of the submarine cable, a second submarine cable cross-section is selected by lowering the value by one level. For example, the first submarine cable cross-section is 2500 mm². 2 At that time, the cross-section of the second submarine cable should preferably be 2000mm. 2 This can avoid excessive fluctuations in lifespan and increased iteration risks caused by cross-grade adjustments.

[0056] Step a2: Based on the second submarine cable cross-section, return to the step of obtaining the predicted service life value, and iterate repeatedly until the predicted service life value is less than the preset submarine cable design life value, and obtain the target cross-section of the submarine cable to be predicted.

[0057] In an optional embodiment, based on the selected second submarine cable cross section, return to step S203 and repeat steps S203 to S204 until the predicted operating life value is less than the preset submarine cable design life value. Then, take the smallest cross section with the predicted operating life value greater than the preset submarine cable design life value as the submarine cable cross section selection result, i.e., the target cross section of the submarine cable to be predicted.

[0058] In some optional embodiments, step S204 above further includes: Step b1: When the initial predicted service life is less than the preset submarine cable design life, determine the third submarine cable cross section.

[0059] In one alternative embodiment, the area of ​​the third submarine cable cross-section is larger than the area of ​​the first submarine cable cross-section.

[0060] In one optional embodiment, when the initial life prediction value is less than the preset submarine cable design life value, the second submarine cable cross section is selected by increasing the range by one level, which can avoid excessive redundancy of the cross section and a significant increase in cost due to the increase in the range.

[0061] Step b2: Based on the third submarine cable cross-section, return to the step of obtaining the predicted service life value, iterate repeatedly until the predicted service life value is greater than the preset submarine cable design life value, and obtain the target cross-section of the submarine cable to be predicted.

[0062] In an optional embodiment, based on the selected third submarine cable cross section, return to step S203 and repeat steps S203 to S204 until the predicted operating life value is greater than the preset submarine cable design life value. Then, take the smallest cross section with the predicted operating life value greater than the preset submarine cable design life value as the submarine cable cross section selection result, that is, the target cross section of the submarine cable to be predicted.

[0063] In some optional embodiments, step S203 above includes: Step S2031: Obtain the dynamic aging model of the submarine cable that takes into account the dynamic temperature characteristics of the submarine cable.

[0064] In one optional embodiment, the submarine cable dynamic aging model represents a mathematical model that uses the dynamic temperature of the submarine cable during actual operation (temperature that changes with current carrying capacity and seabed environment) as the core variable, and then accurately calculates the aging rate of the submarine cable and evaluates the decay law of core performance indicators (such as tensile strength and elongation at break).

[0065] In one optional embodiment, an aging model of cross-linked polyethylene insulation material is obtained, and the temperature parameters in the aging model of cross-linked polyethylene insulation material are set as variables, thereby establishing a dynamic aging model of submarine cable that takes into account the dynamic temperature characteristics of submarine cable.

[0066] Among them, the cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) insulation material aging model is a mathematical model that describes and predicts the performance degradation law of XLPE material over time under specific environments (such as thermal, electrical, mechanical stress, etc.) with the thermal aging mechanism of XLPE material as the core.

[0067] In an alternative embodiment, the dynamic aging model of the submarine cable can be given according to the Arrhenius model, as shown in the following relationship (2): (2) In the formula, R This refers to the aging rate of the cable. This indicates that the cable is in an aging state. C It is a constant, and a specific value can be selected according to the desired submarine cable performance index; The activation energy for thermal aging of XLPE insulation material; k Boltzmann's constant; T This refers to the cable temperature.

[0068] By improving the traditional aging model of cross-linked polyethylene insulation material, the temperature characteristics of submarine cables are used as variables, and the lifespan of submarine cables is predicted based on real-time monitoring data. This avoids the problem of large errors in lifespan prediction accuracy caused by the preset temperature of related submarine cable lifespan prediction technologies.

[0069] Step S2032: Based on the first submarine cable cross-section, obtain the set of key parameters of the submarine cable to be predicted.

[0070] In one optional embodiment, the key parameters of the submarine cable represent a set of relevant parameters reflecting the cable's own structure and material properties, which may include DC resistance, insulation thickness, thermal resistance coefficient, inner lining thickness, outer diameter of the metal sheath, outer sheath thickness, outer diameter of the armor, conductor resistance, number of cable cores, thermal resistance between conductor and sheath, thermal resistance between sheath and armor, thermal resistance of the cable's outer sheath, thermal resistance between the cable surface and the surrounding medium, ratio of metal sheath loss to conductor loss, ratio of armor layer loss to conductor loss, dielectric loss per unit length of conductor insulation, AC submarine cable voltage, DC submarine cable voltage, etc.

[0071] In an optional embodiment, once the first submarine cable cross-section is determined, a set of key submarine cable parameters reflecting the physical, thermal, and electrical characteristics of the first submarine cable cross-section can be obtained from the aforementioned key submarine cable parameters.

[0072] Step S2033: Based on the long-term prediction sequence of the transmitted power and the set of key parameters of the submarine cable, the aging rate of the submarine cable to be predicted is evaluated using the dynamic aging model of the submarine cable, and the first long-term attenuation rate sequence of the performance indicators of the submarine cable to be predicted is determined.

[0073] Specifically, step S2033 above includes: Step c1: Determine the predicted current-carrying capacity sequence of the submarine cable to be predicted based on the long-term prediction sequence of the transmitted power. The specific process can be found in step S2021 above, where the predicted current-carrying capacity sequence of the submarine cable to be predicted is determined; it will not be repeated here.

[0074] Step c2: Calculate and determine the submarine cable temperature rise sequence of the submarine cable to be predicted based on the predicted current carrying capacity sequence and the key parameter set of the submarine cable.

[0075] In one optional embodiment, based on the submarine cable current carrying capacity value sequence and the submarine cable key parameter set, the submarine cable temperature rise formula can be used to calculate multiple corresponding submarine cable temperature rise values ​​and form a corresponding submarine cable temperature rise value sequence.

[0076] In an alternative embodiment, the temperature rise of the submarine cable can be derived from the following relationship (3): (3) In the formula, Value for temperature rise in submarine cables; For the temperature of the submarine cable; This refers to the ambient temperature of the submarine cable's location, specifically the seabed temperature of the section where the cable is laid. I This represents the actual current carrying capacity of the conductor. Resistance of a conductor; This refers to the number of cable cores. The thermal resistance between the conductor and the sheath; The thermal resistance between the sheath and the armor; The thermal resistance of the cable's outer sheath; The thermal resistance between the cable surface and the surrounding medium; The ratio of metal sheath loss to conductor loss is 0 for DC cables; The ratio of armor layer loss to conductor loss is 0 for DC cables; The dielectric loss per unit length of conductor insulation is 0 for DC cables.

[0077] In an optional embodiment, step c2 above includes: Step c21: Construct a radial two-dimensional temperature field finite element calculation model of the submarine cable to be predicted using the finite element method.

[0078] Among them, the radial two-dimensional temperature field finite element calculation model represents a simplified model that describes the temperature distribution law of the submarine cable radially (from the center to the outer surface) using a two-dimensional plane mathematical model. It can quickly and accurately calculate the temperature of each layer of the submarine cable in engineering design and operation.

[0079] Specifically, submarine cables typically have a coaxial layered structure (such as conductors, insulation layers, shielding layers, and sheaths), and the current and environmental conditions are uniform along the axial direction (length direction). Therefore, in this embodiment, based on the axisymmetric assumption, the three-dimensional problem is simplified into a two-dimensional planar problem. Then, by reconstructing the layered structure of the submarine cable through geometric modeling, a radial two-dimensional temperature field finite element calculation model of the submarine cable to be predicted can be constructed.

[0080] Step c22: Input the key parameter set of the submarine cable into the radial two-dimensional temperature field finite element calculation model to obtain the target mapping dataset.

[0081] The target mapping dataset is used to reflect the correspondence between the current carrying capacity and temperature rise of the submarine cable to be predicted.

[0082] Specifically, the key parameter set of the submarine cable is input into a radial two-dimensional temperature field finite element calculation model. These parameters are the corresponding thermophysical parameters assigned to each geometric layer. The geometric model is then divided into a large number of tiny elements, and boundary conditions are applied. Finally, the heat conduction equation is solved to obtain the temperature distribution of the submarine cable. Furthermore, multiple current-carrying values ​​of the submarine cable are input to solve the temperature field under different current-carrying values, and the corresponding temperature rise data is extracted and finally organized into a target mapping dataset.

[0083] Step c23: Determine the submarine cable temperature rise sequence of the submarine cable to be predicted based on the submarine cable current carrying capacity sequence and the target mapping dataset.

[0084] Specifically, for each submarine cable current carrying capacity value sequence, the corresponding submarine cable temperature rise value can be obtained by querying the target mapping dataset.

[0085] By constructing a radial two-dimensional temperature field finite element calculation model of the submarine cable to be predicted using the finite element method, the temperature rise of the submarine cable can be calculated. In application, there is no need to repeatedly run the complex finite element model. The temperature rise value can be quickly obtained by querying the mapping set or by simple input. This meets the real-time requirement of submarine cable operation data acquisition and provides accurate, efficient and dynamic temperature data support for submarine cable life prediction and design optimization.

[0086] Step c3: Determine the predicted sequence of dynamic operating temperature characteristics of the submarine cable to be predicted based on the submarine cable temperature rise sequence and the target temperature sequence.

[0087] In an optional embodiment, the target temperature value sequence includes multiple maximum external ambient temperatures (typically J-segment) of the submarine cable to be predicted at different time steps along the cable path.

[0088] In one optional embodiment, the real-time maximum operating temperature of the submarine cable is calculated based on the maximum external ambient temperature and the temperature rise of the submarine cable. This further forms the corresponding dynamic operating temperature characteristic value sequence. .

[0089] By analyzing the temperature characteristics of the submarine cable to be predicted, the path corresponding to the maximum external ambient temperature in the cable's transmission path was selected to calculate the maximum operating temperature of the cable. This demonstrates that the prediction of the cable's lifespan under harsh conditions is more in line with the actual operating environment of the cable, effectively improving the accuracy of the cable's lifespan prediction.

[0090] Step c4: Based on the predicted sequence of dynamic operating temperature characteristic values, the aging rate of the submarine cable to be predicted is evaluated using the dynamic aging model of the submarine cable, and the long-term attenuation rate sequence of the performance indicators of the submarine cable to be predicted is determined.

[0091] In one optional embodiment, the performance indicators are used to reflect the aging degree and reliability of the core insulation material of the submarine cable to be predicted, and to determine whether the submarine cable has reached the end of its lifespan. These indicators may include the tensile strength and elongation at break of the submarine cable.

[0092] Furthermore, the first long-term decay rate sequence is used to reflect the decay pattern of submarine cable performance indicators over a longer period of time (such as several years to the entire life cycle of the submarine cable).

[0093] Specifically, by using the dynamic operating temperature characteristic value sequence as input, the decay rate of the core performance indicators of the submarine cable is calculated step by step using the submarine cable dynamic aging model. This allows for an accurate assessment of the current aging state and ultimately the formation of the corresponding long-term decay rate sequence.

[0094] Step S2034: Based on the preset lifespan end point, the operating lifespan of the submarine cable to be predicted is predicted according to the first long-term attenuation rate sequence and multiple initial performance index values ​​of the submarine cable to be predicted, so as to obtain the predicted operating lifespan value of the submarine cable to be predicted.

[0095] In one optional embodiment, the preset lifespan end point represents a threshold value of a core performance indicator that is pre-set in the prediction of the submarine cable's operational lifespan, used to determine whether the submarine cable has reached its service life limit. For example, the preset lifespan end point can be selected as a certain percentage of the initial value of a submarine cable performance indicator (such as using 30% of the initial value of a certain performance indicator of the submarine cable as the lifespan end point).

[0096] In an optional embodiment, the long-term attenuation rate sequence of the submarine cable performance index and the initial performance index value of the submarine cable can be used to calculate the predicted value of the submarine cable to be predicted at a certain future moment, as shown in the following relationship (4): (4) In the formula: These are predicted values ​​of submarine cable performance indicators at a future point in time. These are the initial performance index values ​​for the submarine cable; This is a long-term decay rate sequence.

[0097] Furthermore, combining multiple calculated predicted values This allows for the further determination of the corresponding submarine cable performance index attenuation curve, i.e., the performance index attenuation curve.

[0098] Furthermore, when the tensile strength and elongation at break decrease to 30% of their initial values, it can be determined that the insulation performance of the submarine cable has deteriorated significantly, the risk of failure has increased significantly, and the cable has reached its life limit. At this point, the predicted operating life of the submarine cable can be determined by locating the time point when the performance index first drops to the preset life end threshold in the performance index decay curve.

[0099] In one example, a method for selecting submarine cable cross-sections based on dynamic life prediction is provided to improve the accuracy of submarine cable cross-section selection and the reliability of offshore wind power transmission cables and transmission projects. Specific solutions include: First, the temperature parameters in the existing XLPE insulation material aging model are adjusted from constants to variables to establish a dynamic aging model for submarine cables that takes into account the dynamic temperature characteristics of submarine cables.

[0100] Second, based on the predicted power generation utilization hours and the medium-to-long-term forecast curve of the offshore wind farm's transmitted power during the planning stage, the medium-to-long-term forecast value of the transmission cable's current carrying capacity is calculated. Combining the cable's current carrying capacity curve and cable parameters, the predicted value of the cable's dynamic temperature is calculated.

[0101] Third, based on the dynamic aging model of submarine cables, the aging rate of submarine cables is evaluated according to the predicted dynamic temperature of submarine cables. The medium- and long-term predicted attenuation rates of core performance indicators such as tensile strength and elongation at break of submarine cables are obtained, and the predicted service life of submarine cables is further obtained.

[0102] Fourth, compare the predicted service life of the submarine cable with the required service life of the submarine cable. If the predicted service life of the submarine cable is not within the required range, adjust the submarine cable cross section accordingly and repeat steps (ii) and (iii) until the predicted service life of the submarine cable is within the required range.

[0103] This example proposes a method for selecting submarine cable cross-sections based on dynamic lifespan prediction. It suggests using cable lifespan, rather than the current carrying capacity of the bottleneck section, as the basis for cross-section selection. By organically combining medium- and long-term power transmission prediction technology for offshore wind farms with a submarine cable aging model, this invention improves the accuracy of submarine cable lifespan prediction and further optimizes cable cross-section selection, laying a solid technical foundation for improving submarine cable utilization and the economic efficiency of offshore wind power transmission projects.

[0104] The following is in conjunction with the appendix Figure 3 The embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below: The input information required by this method includes submarine cable type, medium- and long-term forecast data of offshore wind power, seabed temperature along the cable path, design service life of the offshore wind farm, and key parameters of the submarine cable (optional). The output information includes recommended submarine cable cross-section selection and predicted service life of the submarine cable.

[0105] The core idea of ​​this method is to establish a dynamic aging model for submarine cables that takes into account the dynamic temperature characteristics of submarine cables, improve the accuracy of submarine cable service life prediction, and select the conductor cross section of submarine cables based on this model.

[0106] For a specific planned offshore wind farm, the selection process for the conductor cross-section of the submarine cable is as follows: First, the calculation system reads the submarine cable current carrying capacity calculation formula, the submarine cable temperature rise calculation formula, and the submarine cable dynamic aging model. The submarine cable current carrying capacity formula is shown in relation (1).

[0107] This example provides two methods for calculating the temperature rise of submarine cables: First, the calculation formula is given based on the IEC 60287 and DL / T 5490-2014 standards. For details, please refer to relation (3). The formula is a combination of theoretical derivation and engineering experience. The values ​​of each parameter are clearly specified in the standard DL / T 5490-2014.

[0108] Secondly, a simulation calculation method is used to provide the temperature rise sequence of the submarine cable. By establishing a radial two-dimensional temperature field finite element calculation model of the submarine cable and importing the material parameters of submarine cables with different cross-sections, the conductor temperature of the submarine cable corresponding to different current carrying capacities can be calculated. To facilitate the calculation, the conductor current carrying capacity can be divided into different current carrying capacity segments from 0% to 100% (for example, every 5% is a segment) during the simulation to obtain the conductor current carrying capacity sequence and calculate the temperature rise of the submarine cable.

[0109] The dynamic aging model of submarine cables is given by the Arrhenius model, see equation (2). In this model, T is equal to the cable temperature rise + seabed temperature, and its value is related to the current carrying capacity and is a variable; in the traditional model, T is 70℃ (343K, submarine cable) or 90℃ (363K, land cable) and is a constant.

[0110] Second, determine the time step for this calculation. Depending on the required computational accuracy and computer performance, the computation time step can be set to the second, minute, hour, or day level. This system recommends the hour level.

[0111] Third, the system reads the long-term predicted power output from offshore wind farms and, based on the long-term power prediction sequence... Using the submarine cable current carrying capacity calculation formula, the predicted current carrying capacity sequence of the submarine cable is calculated. .

[0112] Maximum current carrying capacity of submarine cables based on the predicted current carrying capacity sequence and the design current carrying capacity of submarine cable cross-section , choose to The minimum cross section is used as the initial value of the submarine cable cross section.

[0113] Fourth, the system reads the key parameters of the submarine cable from the submarine cable database based on the initial value of the submarine cable cross-section. The key parameters of the submarine cable stored in the database should include, but are not limited to: DC resistance, insulation thickness, thermal resistance coefficient, inner lining thickness, metal sheath outer diameter, outer sheath thickness, armor outer diameter, etc. The key parameters of the submarine cable can also be manually entered by the user.

[0114] 5. Based on the predicted value sequence of dynamic operating temperature characteristics of submarine cables Using a dynamic aging model that takes into account the dynamic temperature characteristics of submarine cables, the aging rate of submarine cables is evaluated, and the long-term decay rate sequence of core performance indicators such as tensile strength and elongation at break is obtained. .

[0115] Sixth, based on the initial performance indicators of the submarine cable and the long-term attenuation rate sequence of core performance indicators of submarine cables The formula for calculating the attenuation curve of submarine cable performance index is given in relation (4).

[0116] 7. Using 30% of the initial value of the core performance indicators as the end point of the service life, the expected service life of the submarine cable at the current cross-section is obtained. .

[0117] 8. If the expected service life is... If the cross-section value is greater than the minimum design life of the submarine cable (e.g., 30 years), record the cross-section value and the predicted service life of the submarine cable. Then, select one level lower for the cross-section value and repeat steps (iv) to (vii). If the predicted service life value is greater than the minimum design life of the submarine cable (e.g., 30 years), record the cross-section value and the predicted service life value of the submarine cable. If the cross-section is less than the minimum design life of the submarine cable, record the cross-section and the predicted life of the submarine cable. Then, select one level higher for the cross-section of the submarine cable and repeat (IV) to (VII).

[0118] 9. When the expected service life is... The cycle terminates when the relationship with the design service life of the offshore wind farm changes. The expected service life is then selected. The minimum cross-section greater than the minimum design life of the submarine cable is used as the result of the submarine cable cross-section selection, and the recommended submarine cable cross-section and expected life are output.

[0119] The advantages of the method and system for selecting the cross-section of the submarine cable provided in this example are: (1) Traditional submarine cable life prediction models assume that the submarine cable always operates at the maximum allowable temperature. This invention uses a dynamic aging model that takes into account the operating temperature of the submarine cable, which is more consistent with the actual working conditions of the submarine cable and provides a more accurate estimate of the aging rate of the submarine cable. (2) The submarine cable selection method proposed in this invention can reasonably optimize the selection of submarine cable cross-section, reduce the cost of submarine cable, and improve the economic efficiency of the project; (3) The submarine cable selection method proposed in this invention has a wide range of applications. It can be applied to both sending submarine cables and large cross-section current collecting submarine cables; it can be applied to both DC submarine cables and AC submarine cables.

[0120] This embodiment also provides a submarine cable cross-section selection device based on submarine cable dynamic life prediction. This device is used to implement the above embodiments and preferred embodiments, and details already described will not be repeated. As used below, the term "module" can be a combination of software and / or hardware that performs a predetermined function. Although the device described in the following embodiments is preferably implemented in software, hardware implementation, or a combination of software and hardware, is also possible and contemplated.

[0121] This embodiment provides a submarine cable cross-section selection device based on submarine cable dynamic life prediction, such as... Figure 4 As shown, it includes: The data acquisition module 401 is used to acquire the long-term prediction sequence of the transmission power of the submarine cable to be predicted in the offshore wind farm to be built and the design current carrying capacity sequence of the submarine cable cross section.

[0122] The first submarine cable cross-section determination module 402 is used to determine the first submarine cable cross-section based on the long-term prediction sequence of the transmitted power and the design current carrying capacity sequence of the submarine cable cross-section.

[0123] The submarine cable life prediction module 403 is used to predict the operating life of the submarine cable to be predicted based on the first submarine cable cross-section and the preset life end point, according to the long-term prediction sequence of the transmitted power, and obtain the predicted value of the operating life of the submarine cable to be predicted.

[0124] The submarine cable cross-section selection module 404 is used to compare the predicted service life value with the preset submarine cable design life value of the submarine cable to be predicted, and determine the target cross-section of the submarine cable to be predicted based on the comparison result. The target cross-section is the smallest cross-section where the predicted service life value is greater than the preset submarine cable design life value.

[0125] The submarine cable cross-section selection device based on dynamic life prediction provided in this embodiment of the invention can execute the submarine cable cross-section selection method based on dynamic life prediction provided in any embodiment of the invention, and has the corresponding functional modules and beneficial effects of the method. Further functional descriptions of the above modules and units are the same as in the corresponding embodiments described above, and will not be repeated here.

[0126] Figure 5 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device provided in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0127] The following is a detailed reference. Figure 5This diagram illustrates a structural schematic suitable for implementing an electronic device according to embodiments of the present invention. The electronic device may include a processor (e.g., a central processing unit, graphics processor, etc.) 501, which can perform various appropriate actions and processes according to a program stored in read-only memory (ROM) 502 or a program loaded from memory 508 into random access memory (RAM) 503. The RAM 503 also stores various programs and data required for the operation of the electronic device. The processor 501, ROM 502, and RAM 503 are interconnected via a bus 504. An input / output (I / O) interface 505 is also connected to the bus 504.

[0128] Typically, the following devices can be connected to I / O interface 505: input devices 506 including, for example, touchscreens, touchpads, keyboards, mice, cameras, microphones, accelerometers, gyroscopes, etc.; output devices 507 including, for example, liquid crystal displays (LCDs), speakers, vibrators, etc.; memory devices 508 including, for example, magnetic tapes, hard disks, etc.; and communication devices 509. Communication device 509 allows electronic devices to communicate wirelessly or wiredly with other devices to exchange data. Although Figure 5 Electronic devices with various devices are shown, but it should be understood that it is not required to implement or have all of the devices shown, and more or fewer devices may be implemented or have instead.

[0129] In particular, according to embodiments of the present invention, the processes described above with reference to the flowcharts can be implemented as computer software programs. For example, embodiments of the present invention include a computer program product comprising a computer program carried on a non-transitory computer-readable medium, the computer program containing program code for performing the methods shown in the flowcharts. In such embodiments, the computer program can be downloaded and installed from a network via a communication device 509, or installed from a memory 508, or installed from a ROM 502. When the computer program is executed by the processor 501, it performs the functions defined in the submarine cable cross-section selection method based on submarine cable dynamic life prediction according to embodiments of the present invention.

[0130] Figure 5 The electronic device shown is merely an example and should not be construed as limiting the functionality and scope of use of the embodiments of the present invention.

[0131] This invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium. The methods described above according to embodiments of the invention can be implemented in hardware or firmware, or implemented as computer code that can be recorded on a storage medium, or implemented as computer code downloaded via a network and originally stored on a remote storage medium or a non-transitory machine-readable storage medium and then stored on a local storage medium. Thus, the methods described herein can be processed by software stored on a storage medium using a general-purpose computer, a dedicated processor, or programmable or dedicated hardware. The storage medium can be a magnetic disk, optical disk, read-only memory, random access memory, flash memory, hard disk, or solid-state drive, etc.; further, the storage medium can also include combinations of the above types of memory. It is understood that computers, processors, microprocessor controllers, or programmable hardware include storage components capable of storing or receiving software or computer code. When the software or computer code is accessed and executed by the computer, processor, or hardware, the submarine cable cross-section selection method based on submarine cable dynamic life prediction shown in the above embodiments is implemented.

[0132] A portion of this invention can be applied as a computer program product, such as computer program instructions, which, when executed by a computer, can invoke or provide the methods and / or technical solutions according to the invention through the operation of the computer. Those skilled in the art will understand that the forms in which computer program instructions exist in a computer-readable medium include, but are not limited to, source files, executable files, installation package files, etc. Correspondingly, the ways in which computer program instructions are executed by a computer include, but are not limited to: the computer directly executing the instructions, or the computer compiling the instructions and then executing the corresponding compiled program, or the computer reading and executing the instructions, or the computer reading and installing the instructions and then executing the corresponding installed program. Here, the computer-readable medium can be any available computer-readable storage medium or communication medium accessible to a computer.

[0133] Although embodiments of the invention have been described in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, those skilled in the art can make various modifications and variations without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, and such modifications and variations all fall within the scope defined by the appended claims.

Claims

1. A submarine cable cross-section selection method based on submarine cable dynamic life prediction, characterized in that, The method comprises: obtaining a long-term prediction sequence of the sending power of the to-be-predicted submarine cable and a submarine cable cross-section design load flow sequence in the to-be-built offshore wind farm; determining a first submarine cable cross-section according to the long-term prediction sequence of the sending power and the submarine cable cross-section design load flow sequence; based on the first submarine cable cross-section and a preset end of life, predicting the operating life of the to-be-predicted submarine cable according to the long-term prediction sequence of the sending power, to obtain an operating life prediction value of the to-be-predicted submarine cable; comparing the operating life prediction value with a preset submarine cable design life value of the to-be-predicted submarine cable, and determining a target cross-section of the to-be-predicted submarine cable according to the comparison result, the target cross-section being the smallest cross-section for which the operating life prediction value is greater than the preset submarine cable design life value.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein, determining a first submarine cable cross-section according to the long-term prediction sequence of the sending power and the submarine cable cross-section design load flow sequence, comprises: determining a submarine cable predicted load flow sequence of the to-be-predicted submarine cable according to the long-term prediction sequence of the sending power; determining the first submarine cable cross-section according to the submarine cable predicted load flow sequence and the submarine cable cross-section design load flow sequence.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein, comparing the operating life prediction value with a preset submarine cable design life value of the to-be-predicted submarine cable, and determining a target cross-section of the to-be-predicted submarine cable according to the comparison result, comprises: when the initial operating life prediction value is greater than the preset submarine cable design life value of the to-be-predicted submarine cable, determining a second submarine cable cross-section, the area of the second submarine cable cross-section being smaller than the area of the first submarine cable cross-section; based on the second submarine cable cross-section, returning to the step of obtaining the operating life prediction value, and repeatedly iterating until the operating life prediction value is less than the preset submarine cable design life value, to obtain the target cross-section of the to-be-predicted submarine cable.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein, comparing the operating life prediction value with a preset submarine cable design life value of the to-be-predicted submarine cable, and determining a target cross-section of the to-be-predicted submarine cable according to the comparison result, further comprises: when the initial operating life prediction value is less than the preset submarine cable design life value, determining a third submarine cable cross-section, the area of the third submarine cable cross-section being greater than the area of the first submarine cable cross-section; based on the third submarine cable cross-section, returning to the step of obtaining the operating life prediction value, and repeatedly iterating until the operating life prediction value is greater than the preset submarine cable design life value, to obtain the target cross-section of the to-be-predicted submarine cable.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein, based on the first submarine cable cross-section and a preset end of life, predicting the operating life of the to-be-predicted submarine cable according to the long-term prediction sequence of the sending power, to obtain an operating life prediction value of the to-be-predicted submarine cable, comprises: obtaining a submarine cable dynamic aging model considering the dynamic temperature characteristics of the submarine cable; based on the first submarine cable cross-section, obtaining a set of submarine cable key parameters of the to-be-predicted submarine cable; according to the long-term prediction sequence of the sending power and the set of submarine cable key parameters, evaluating the aging speed of the to-be-predicted submarine cable by using the submarine cable dynamic aging model, and determining a first long-term decay rate sequence of the performance indicators of the to-be-predicted submarine cable; Based on the preset end-of-life, according to the first long-term attenuation rate sequence and the plurality of initial performance index values of the submarine cable to be predicted, the operating life of the submarine cable to be predicted is predicted, and an operating life prediction value of the submarine cable to be predicted is obtained.

6. The method of claim 5, wherein, According to the long-term power transmission prediction sequence and the set of key parameters of the submarine cable, the aging speed of the submarine cable to be predicted is evaluated using the dynamic aging model of the submarine cable, and a long-term attenuation rate sequence of the performance index of the submarine cable to be predicted is determined, including: According to the long-term power transmission prediction sequence, a submarine cable predicted load flow sequence of the submarine cable to be predicted is determined; According to the submarine cable predicted load flow sequence and the set of key parameters of the submarine cable, a submarine cable temperature rise value sequence of the submarine cable to be predicted is calculated and determined; According to the submarine cable temperature rise value sequence and a target temperature value sequence, a dynamic working temperature characteristic value prediction sequence of the submarine cable to be predicted is determined, wherein the target temperature value sequence includes a plurality of maximum external environment temperature values of the submarine cable to be predicted in different time steps in the submarine cable path; Based on the dynamic working temperature characteristic value prediction sequence, the aging speed of the submarine cable to be predicted is evaluated using the dynamic aging model of the submarine cable, and the long-term attenuation rate sequence of the performance index of the submarine cable to be predicted is determined.

7. A submarine cable cross section selection device based on submarine cable dynamic life prediction, characterized in that, The device comprises: A data acquisition module for acquiring a long-term power transmission prediction sequence and a submarine cable cross-section design load flow sequence of a submarine cable to be predicted in a to-be-built offshore wind farm; A first submarine cable cross-section determination module for determining a first submarine cable cross-section according to the long-term power transmission prediction sequence and the submarine cable cross-section design load flow sequence; A submarine cable life prediction module for predicting the operating life of the submarine cable to be predicted based on the first submarine cable cross-section and a preset end-of-life according to the long-term power transmission prediction sequence, and obtaining an operating life prediction value of the submarine cable to be predicted; A submarine cable cross-section selection module for comparing the operating life prediction value with a preset submarine cable design life value of the submarine cable to be predicted, and determining a target cross-section of the submarine cable to be predicted according to the comparison result, wherein the target cross-section is the smallest cross-section when the operating life prediction value is greater than the preset submarine cable design life value.

8. An electronic device, comprising: Comprise: A memory and a processor, which are communicatively connected, the memory stores computer instructions, and the processor executes the computer instructions to perform the method of any one of claims 1-6.

9. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, The computer readable storage medium stores computer instructions for causing a computer to perform the method of any one of claims 1-6.

10. A computer program product, characterised in that, The computer instructions are used to cause a computer to perform the method of any one of claims 1-6.

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