Carbon tax income return method, system and device based on CGE model, and medium
By using dynamic analysis based on the CGE model, the impact of carbon tax policy on various economic entities is simulated, which solves the problem of lack of basis and allocation standards in the formulation of carbon tax policy, and realizes the scientific formulation and implementation of carbon tax policy.
Patent Information
- Application Number
- CN202511320914.0
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Applications(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- Filing Date
- 2025-09-16
- Publication Date
- 2026-02-06
AI Technical Summary
Existing research lacks quantitative analysis of the economic impact of carbon tax policies on various economic entities, resulting in a lack of reliable basis for carbon tax policy formulation and a lack of standards for carbon tax revenue distribution, which affects the rational advancement and implementation of the policy.
Using a CGE model-based approach, a dynamic CGE model is constructed, distinguishing between the power and non-power sectors. Combining a six-layer nested production function and parameter calibration, the economic impact under different carbon tax policy scenarios is simulated. Ten carbon tax revenue return schemes are designed, including no carbon tax return, partial carbon tax return, and special carbon tax return. The impact on various economic entities is simulated using GAMS software.
It provides quantitative evidence, guides the formulation of carbon tax policies, solves the problem of missing standards for tax redistribution, fills the gap in systematic cost-benefit comparison, and promotes the scientific formulation and implementation of carbon tax policies.
Smart Images
Figure CN121481748A_ABST
Abstract
Description
TECHNICAL FIELD
[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of carbon tax analysis, in particular to a carbon tax income return method, system, device and medium based on a CGE model. BACKGROUND
[0002] To achieve the latest NDC target, China is considering market-type (such as carbon pricing) and non-market-type (such as regulatory or administrative means) policy tools in an integrated manner; at present, the national carbon emissions trading system (ETS) has been launched in the power sector first, and relevant departments are also studying the gradual expansion of it to other high-emission sectors; at the same time, carbon tax is also regarded as another potential policy tool, which is expected to provide strong support for achieving the NDC target and the 2060 carbon neutral target; compared with the emissions carbon trading system, carbon tax not only is simpler in design and implementation, but also can cover areas such as families and transportation that are difficult to include in the ETS.
[0003] When formulating / pushing forward the relevant carbon tax policy, the policy makers need to consider the economic cost and other factors that may be brought by the implementation of the carbon tax policy, so as to avoid the imbalance of the policy and the impact on the normal economic entities, but most of the existing researches in China are mostly for analyzing carbon emission restrictions, or analyzing carbon tax income and carbon tax subsidies, without comparing the two, and the value for reference is low, which cannot directly provide reliable quantitative basis for the relevant carbon tax policy, thereby affecting the time of introducing the relevant carbon tax policy (and further affecting the enterprises and residents, such as increasing the expenditure of the enterprises in the aspect of carbon tax, and affecting the normal employment and living environment of the residents); secondly, in most researches of analyzing carbon tax income and carbon tax subsidies, there is a lack of evaluation standard for how to distribute the carbon tax income, which is easy to cause resistance to the formulation / pushing forward of the reasonable policy.
[0004] Therefore, based on the above technical problems, the present application provides a carbon tax income return method, system, device and medium based on a CGE model, which can simulate and analyze the economic impact of implementing different carbon tax policies on each economic entity, and provide a guidance direction for the formulation of specific carbon tax policies and the evaluation standard of carbon tax income distribution. SUMMARY
[0005] The present application aims to overcome the shortcomings of the prior art, and provides a carbon tax income return method, system, device and medium based on a CGE model, which can simulate and analyze the economic impact of implementing different carbon tax policies on each economic entity, and provide a guidance direction for the formulation of specific carbon tax policies and the evaluation standard of carbon tax income distribution.
[0006] In order to achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the carbon tax income return method based on the CGE model provided by the present application comprises the following steps: Step 1: constructing a dynamic CGE model, wherein the dynamic CGE model comprises four economic subjects of government, residents, enterprises and foreign countries, and the economic aggregate composed of the four economic subjects is divided into 27 production departments; based on the differences in production characteristics and energy use types of each production department, each production department is divided into two categories of power departments and non-power departments; Step 2: after obtaining the dynamic CGE model, based on the principle of six-layer nested production function and combined with the characteristics of direct substitution of allowable fossil energy and capital in the power department, six-layer nested production functions of non-power departments and six-layer special nested production functions of power departments are respectively constructed; Step 3: after obtaining the dynamic CGE model, combined with relevant environmental parameters, energy parameters, technical parameters and economic benchmark parameters as data basis, the dynamic CGE model is calibrated to obtain the calibrated dynamic CGE model; Step 4: after obtaining the calibrated dynamic CGE model, the set benchmark scenario and the main scenario are simulated to obtain the influence of the power department and the non-power department under different carbon tax policy scenarios, wherein the benchmark scenario is a scenario without new policy promulgation, and the main scenario includes six main scenarios of no carbon tax return, partial carbon tax return and special carbon tax return.
[0007] Further, the CGE model in step 1 comprises a production module, a trade module, an income and expenditure module, an equilibrium and closure module, a carbon tax module and a dynamic mechanism module, wherein each module is linked and cooperated through GAMS software.
[0008] Further, the specific steps of step 2 are: Step 2.1: based on the principle of CES production function and Leontief production function, six-layer nested production functions of non-power departments are constructed, wherein, except for the use of Leontief production function for non-energy intermediate inputs, the rest of the production inputs use CES production function; Step 2.2: based on the principle of CES production function and Leontief production function, combined with the characteristics of direct substitution of allowable fossil energy and capital in the power department, six-layer special nested production functions of power departments are constructed, wherein, except for the use of Leontief production function for non-energy intermediate inputs, the rest of the production inputs use CES production function; Step 2.3: based on the six-layer nested production functions of non-power departments in step 2.1 and based on the six-layer special nested production functions of power departments in step 2.2, the dynamic CGE model is further obtained.
[0009] Further, in the step 3, the environmental parameter is the fossil fuel CO2 emission factor, the technical parameter is the substitution elasticity value, the energy parameter is the energy consumption structure of China, and the economic benchmark parameter is the SAM table and tax data prepared by using the input-output table of the base year of China.
[0010] Further, the main scenarios of simulating the carbon tax refund in the step 4 include main scenario 1 and main scenario 2, which are as follows: Main scenario 1: the carbon emission target is set to a level consistent with the national independent contribution target, and the shadow carbon price is calculated based on the calibrated dynamic CGE model; Main scenario 2: carbon tax is collected based on the carbon emission intensity level required by the national independent contribution target, carbon tax revenue is obtained, and the carbon tax revenue is distributed based on the way in which the government distributes its total revenue in the base scenario.
[0011] Further, the main scenarios of the special carbon tax refund class in the step 4 are main scenario 3, main scenario 4, main scenario 5 and main scenario 6, which are as follows: Main scenario 3: the carbon tax revenue is used to subsidize the wind power and photovoltaic sectors; Main scenario 4: the carbon tax revenue is exempted from the labor tax of each sector except the fossil fuel and thermal power sectors; Main scenario 5: the carbon tax revenue is exempted from the capital tax of each sector except the fossil fuel and thermal power sectors; Main scenario 6: the carbon tax revenue is returned to residents in the form of one-time subsidies.
[0012] Further, the main scenarios of the partial carbon tax refund class in the step 4 are main scenario 7, main scenario 8, main scenario 9 and main scenario 10, which are as follows: Main scenario 7: the carbon tax revenue is exempted from the corporate income tax of each sector except the fossil fuel and thermal power sectors, new corporate income tax is obtained, and the refunded carbon tax revenue is distributed based on the proportion of the amount of corporate tax paid by each sector, wherein the amount of corporate tax paid is in a positive correlation with the refunded carbon tax revenue; Main scenario 8: the carbon tax revenue is exempted from the corporate income tax of each sector except the fossil fuel and thermal power sectors, new corporate income tax is obtained, and the refunded carbon tax revenue is distributed based on the proportion of the corporate income tax rate of each sector, wherein the corporate income tax rate is in a positive correlation with the refunded carbon tax revenue; Main scenario 9: the carbon tax revenue is exempted from the corporate income tax of each sector except the fossil fuel and thermal power sectors, new corporate income tax is obtained, and the refunded carbon tax revenue is distributed based on the CO2 emission intensity of each sector, wherein the CO2 emission intensity is in an inverse correlation with the refunded carbon tax revenue; The main scenario 10 is that the carbon tax income is exempted from the corporate income tax of the departments except the fossil fuel and thermal power departments, a new corporate income tax is obtained, and the returned carbon tax income is distributed based on the export intensity of the departments, wherein the export intensity is inversely proportional to the returned carbon tax income.
[0013] Based on the same inventive concept, the application further provides a carbon tax income return system based on a CGE model, comprising: a dynamic CGE model construction module, a production function construction module, a parameter calibration module and a scenario simulation module, the dynamic CGE model construction module is used to construct a dynamic CGE model, wherein the dynamic CGE model comprises four economic subjects of government, residents, enterprises and foreign countries, and the economic aggregate composed of the four economic subjects is divided into 27 production departments; based on the differences in production characteristics and energy use types of each production department, each production department is divided into two categories of power departments and non-power departments; the production function construction module is used to construct a six-layer nested production function of the non-power department and a six-layer special nested production function of the power department based on the six-layer nested production function principle and in combination with the characteristics of the power department that the allowable fossil energy can be directly replaced by capital after obtaining the dynamic CGE model; the parameter calibration module is used to calibrate the parameters of the dynamic CGE model based on the dynamic CGE model, in combination with relevant environmental parameters, energy parameters, technical parameters and economic benchmark parameters as a data basis, to obtain a calibrated dynamic CGE model; the scenario simulation module is used to simulate the set benchmark scenario and the main scenario after obtaining the calibrated dynamic CGE model, to obtain the influence of the power department and the non-power department under different carbon tax policy scenarios, wherein the benchmark scenario is a scenario without new policy promulgation, and the main scenario includes three main scenarios of no carbon tax return, partial carbon tax return and special carbon tax return.
[0014] Based on the same inventive concept, the application further provides a data processing device for a carbon tax income return method based on a CGE model, comprising: a memory and a processor, the memory is used to store a computer program; the processor is used to execute the computer program to realize the steps of the carbon tax income return method based on the CGE model.
[0015] Based on the same inventive concept, the application further provides a computer readable storage medium, the computer readable storage medium stores a computer program, and the computer program is executed by a processor to realize the steps of the carbon tax income return method based on the CGE model.
[0016] The application adopts the above scheme, and has the following advantages: The economic influence difference of different carbon tax policies on four economic subjects of government, residents, enterprises and foreign countries is simulated by a dynamic CGE model under the implementation of different carbon tax policies and administrative forced emission reduction (such as NDC target), the blank of systematic comparison of cost and benefit of the two is filled, and quantitative basis is provided for relevant carbon tax policy making, reference is provided for subsequent relevant carbon tax policy making / implementation, and the differentiated influence of no carbon tax return, partial carbon tax return and special carbon tax return on economic structure and emission reduction effect is further explored by designing 10 carbon tax income return schemes (such as return schemes such as exemption of enterprise income tax, subsidy of clean power technology), the problem of "lack of tax redistribution standard" is solved, and guidance direction is provided for the making of specific carbon tax policy. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS
[0017] Figure 1 The flow chart of the carbon tax income return method based on the CGE model in the present application.
[0018] Figure 2 The production function nesting structure diagram of the power department of the carbon tax income return method based on the CGE model in the present application.
[0019] Figure 3 The production function nesting structure diagram of the non-power department of the carbon tax income return method based on the CGE model in the present application.
[0020] Figure 4 The structure diagram of the carbon tax income return system based on the CGE model in the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION
[0021] In order to facilitate the understanding of the present application, the present application will be described more fully below with reference to the accompanying drawings. The preferred embodiments of the present application are shown in the drawings. However, the present application can be realized in many different forms and is not limited to the embodiments described herein. The purpose of providing these embodiments is to make the disclosure of the present application more thorough and comprehensive.
[0022] Example 1:
[0023] Referring to the accompanying drawings, Figure 1 shown, in this embodiment, a carbon tax income return method based on a CGE model includes the following steps:
[0024] Step 1: Construct a dynamic computable general equilibrium model (dynamic CGE model), wherein the dynamic CGE model includes 27 production sectors including 4 economic entities of government, residents, enterprises and foreign countries, and divides the economic entities into 27 production sectors; based on the differences in production characteristics and energy use types of each production sector, each production sector is divided into two categories of power sector and non-power sector; compared with the static CGE model, the dynamic CGE model is more suitable for long-term policy simulation analysis, the simulation analysis result is closer to the actual development result, thereby improving the accuracy of the model.
[0025] The dynamic CGE model includes a production module, a trade module, an income and expenditure module, an equilibrium and closure module, a carbon tax module and a dynamic mechanism module, wherein each module is linked and coordinated through GAMS software; specifically, the production module is used to depict the production structure of the non-power sector and the power sector, the trade module is used to describe the allocation relationship between domestic sales and exports of domestic products and the imperfect substitutability between domestic goods and imported goods, the income and expenditure module is used to describe the income sources and expenditure directions of residents, enterprises and government (including various types of transfer payments and taxes), the equilibrium and closure module is used to set the equilibrium conditions of the CGE model (specifically covering the clearing state of the commodity market, the clearing balance of the labor market, the clearing of the capital market, the balance of international payments and the balance of investment and savings), the carbon tax module is used to calculate the carbon tax value under different situations and distribute the obtained carbon tax revenue, wherein the tax base used by the carbon tax module is the carbon dioxide emissions generated by the combustion of fossil energy in the production sector, and the tax revenue obtained by the carbon tax is government revenue; the dynamic CGE model in the embodiment adopts a recursive dynamic mechanism (taking 2017 as the base year and recursively to 2035) - that is, the above dynamic mechanism module is set to simulate the changes of actual market environment and production conditions to improve the accuracy of model prediction, wherein the dynamic driving of the above dynamic CGE model relies on labor growth rate, new capital stock, total factor productivity, autonomous energy efficiency progress, etc.
[0026] Step 2: Based on the principle of six-layer nested production function and combined with the characteristics of the power sector that the fossil energy and capital can be directly substituted, six-layer nested production functions of the non-power sector and six-layer special nested production functions of the power sector are constructed respectively (the specific formulas of Leontief production function and CES production function mentioned here are commonly used or easily thought by those skilled in the art, which are not specifically limited here, and appropriate CES and Leontief production function formulas can be selected as needed);
[0027] The specific steps of step 2 are:
[0028] Step 2.1: Based on the principles of CES production function and Leontief production function, a six-layer nested production function of non-power sector is constructed, in which CES production function is used for all production inputs except Leontief production function for energy intermediate inputs, see FIG. 2A. Figure 3
[0029] Step 2.2: Based on the principles of CES production function and Leontief production function, combined with the characteristics of direct substitution of fossil energy and capital in the power sector, a six-layer special nested production function of the power sector is constructed, in which CES production function is used for all production inputs except Leontief production function for energy intermediate inputs, see FIG. 2B. Figure 2
[0030] Step 3: After obtaining the dynamic CGE model, combined with relevant environmental parameters, energy parameters, technical parameters and economic benchmark parameters as data basis, the dynamic CGE model is calibrated to obtain the calibrated dynamic CGE model.
[0031] Specifically, the environmental parameter is the fossil fuel CO2 emission factor (which can be calculated by referring to the statistical data of the International Energy Agency IEA), the technical parameter is the substitution elasticity value, and the substitution elasticity (Elasticity of Substitution) is a key parameter used to quantify the difficulty of substitution between different factors (such as capital, labor, energy, etc.) in the production process. In the dynamic CGE model of the present embodiment, the substitution elasticity in the model determines the difference in production decision-making between the non-power sector and the power sector. For example, the power sector allows direct substitution of capital and fossil energy (high substitution elasticity supports clean power technology transformation), while the non-power sector separates energy and non-energy inputs, and the substitution elasticity affects the emission reduction path, i.e. the size of the substitution elasticity value directly affects the simulation results of the dynamic CGE model, such as the impact of technology upgrading on employment or carbon emission reduction potential. The energy parameter is the energy consumption structure of China, and the economic benchmark parameter is the SAM table prepared by the input-output table of China in the benchmark year and the tax data, wherein the benchmark year in the present embodiment is preferably 2017, and the tax data can be obtained by referring to the China State Administration of Taxation and China Finance Statistical Yearbook.
[0032] Step 4: After obtaining the calibrated dynamic CGE model, simulate the set reference scenario and the main scenarios to obtain the impact of the power sector and non-power sector under different carbon tax policy scenarios. The reference scenario is a scenario without new policy issuance. It is important to note that the reference scenario provides a situation without new policy intervention and is an important tool for understanding and evaluating the impact of any new policy. Before introducing the policy shock, simulate the reference scenario using the dynamic CGE model to obtain the changes in GDP, energy consumption, carbon emissions, etc. in each year without implementing the policy, in order to facilitate comparative analysis with other main scenarios. In this embodiment, the relevant parameters in the dynamic mechanism are adjusted according to the existing statistical data and the prediction results in the relevant research reports of authoritative institutions. The GDP growth rate comes from the official data published by the National Bureau of Statistics, the energy consumption structure data comes from the China Energy Statistical Yearbook, and the power production structure data comes from the China Electricity Statistical Yearbook and the data published by the China Electricity Enterprise Federation. The prediction results for future years refer to the prediction data of authoritative institutions such as the report "China's Long-term Low-carbon Development Strategy and Transformation Path Research" by the team of He Jiankun of Tsinghua University, the global economic prediction database of the French International Economic Research Center (CEPII), the "China Carbon Neutral Comprehensive Report 2022: Electrification Special Report" by the China Energy Foundation, and the "World Energy Outlook" by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
[0033] The main scenarios include three types (covering ten different situations) of main scenarios: no carbon tax return, partial carbon tax return, and special carbon tax return. For details, refer to Table 1.
[0034] Table 1: Six main scenarios ,
[0035] Based on Table 1 above, main scenario 1 and main scenario 2 are main scenarios without carbon tax return, main scenario 3 to main scenario 6 are main scenarios with special carbon tax return, and main scenario 7 to main scenario 10 are main scenarios with partial carbon tax return.
[0036] In main scenario 1, the total CO2 emissions are estimated by setting the carbon intensity to a level consistent with the NDC target of the country's independent contribution. The corresponding shadow carbon price is calculated by the calibrated CGE model. Therefore, the government does not obtain any carbon tax revenue under this scenario. By simulating main scenario 1 and comparing it with the reference scenario (a scenario without new policy issuance), it is easier to obtain the impact of implementing the carbon tax policy in main scenario 1.
[0037] In the main scenario 2, carbon tax is levied at the level of carbon emission intensity required by the national autonomous contribution target, carbon tax revenue is obtained, and then the obtained carbon tax revenue is included in the government budget, and the carbon tax revenue is distributed in the same way as the government distributes its total income in the benchmark scenario, which can achieve the purpose of improving the government's financial situation, but in this scenario, the government does not return the carbon tax revenue.
[0038] In the main scenario 3, by using carbon tax revenue to subsidize the wind power and photovoltaic sectors (wind power generation and solar power generation), the pre-investment cost and production cost of the wind power and photovoltaic sectors are reduced, and the market competitiveness of the wind power and photovoltaic sectors is improved, thereby promoting the transformation of the energy structure from fossil fuels to renewable energy, promoting the research and development of the above-mentioned clean power technologies, and shortening the technology iteration cycle.
[0039] Secondly, in order to simulate the main scenario 3, the formula representing the production function of the photovoltaic sector and the wind power sector needs to be modified. The original formula representing the production function of the photovoltaic sector and the wind power sector is: , The modified formula representing the production function of the photovoltaic sector and the wind power sector is: , At the same time, the calculation formula of REVGAP is added: , Where subscript ws represents the set of photovoltaic sector and wind power sector, subscript t represents the time year, is the total output, is the output price, is the indirect tax rate paid to the government, is the capital investment, is the capital price, is the combination of labor and intermediate inputs, is the price of the combination of labor and intermediate inputs, is the government revenue including carbon tax revenue, is the government revenue in the benchmark scenario (i.e. before the carbon tax policy is introduced) (excluding carbon tax revenue), and REVGAP is the increase in government revenue brought by the carbon tax policy, i.e. the returned carbon tax revenue, is the proportion allocated to the ws sector (the set of photovoltaic sector and wind power sector).
[0040] Based on the above formula, the wind power and photovoltaic sectors can obtain the returned carbon tax revenue, wherein, The calculation formula of is as follows: , Wherein, is the total output of the photovoltaic sector and the wind power sector; and And, in the case of the government revenue remains unchanged, the government savings is replaced by the following formula: , Where, is the government savings, is the government expenditure.
[0041] By simulating the main scenario 3, in the implementation of the carbon tax policy, the premise of the return of carbon tax revenue, the proportion of the return of carbon tax revenue is distributed to the photovoltaic sector and the wind power sector as subsidies to encourage the development of relevant clean energy sectors, while promoting the diversification of government revenue.
[0042] In the main scenario 4, by reducing the labor tax of all sectors except the fossil fuel and thermal power sector with the return of carbon tax revenue, the enterprise reduces the labor cost, and the relative employment rate is guaranteed.
[0043] The following formula can be used to calculate how the return of carbon tax revenue is used to reduce the labor tax in non-energy and non-fossil fuel power sectors; and it should be noted that in this scenario, the labor tax of the fossil fuel sector and the power sector using fossil fuels is not reduced by the carbon tax revenue (relatively restricted to high-carbon sectors to ensure the implementation of emission reduction responsibilities) to avoid rebound effects, which is: , , Where subscript ne is the subset of non-power sector non-fossil energy sector, is the sum of the prices of capital and labor inputs in the non-power sector, is the composite of capital and labor inputs in the non-power sector, WK is the price of capital, is the capital input in the non-power sector, is the wage rate, is the labor input in the non-power sector, subscript nfee is the subset of non-thermal power sector in the power sector, PEMEL is the price of intermediate inputs in the power sector, is the price of labor and intermediate inputs in the power sector, is the labor input in the power sector, is the composite of labor and intermediate inputs in the power sector, is the total intermediate input in the power sector, is the proportion of the ne sector (non-power sector non-fossil energy sector) allocated, is the proportion of the nfee sector (non-thermal power sector in the power sector) allocated.
[0044] The calculation method of and is as follows: , , In the main scenario 5, by reducing the capital tax of all sectors except the fossil fuel and thermal power sectors with the returned carbon tax revenue, the investment threshold of clean power technologies (such as new energy equipment or energy efficiency upgrading) is lowered, encouraging capital to invest in low-carbon transformation rather than traditional high-emission projects, indirectly promoting industrial structure optimization.
[0045] Secondly, the following formula can be used to calculate how the reduction of capital tax in non-energy and non-fossil fuel power generation sectors with returned carbon tax revenue is calculated, specifically: , Among them, is the total output, is the output price, is the indirect tax rate paid to the government, is the capital input, is the capital price, is the composite of labor and intermediate inputs, is the price of the composite of labor and intermediate inputs.
[0046] The calculation method of and is as follows: , , By simulating the main scenario 4, reducing the labor tax of all sectors except the fossil fuel and thermal power sectors can increase labor demand and alleviate employment pressure. Secondly, by simulating the main scenario 5, reducing the capital tax of all sectors except the fossil fuel and thermal power sectors can encourage capital to invest in low-carbon clean power technologies and promote low-carbon technological progress.
[0047] In the main scenario 6, by returning the carbon tax revenue to residents in the form of one-time subsidies (cash transfer payments), the excess government revenue is directly increased to the residents' income (i.e. residents receive carbon tax subsidies), relatively stabilizing residents' consumption capacity and improving residents' acceptance of carbon tax policy.
[0048] Secondly, the following formula can be used to calculate the carbon tax subsidies received by residents' income, specifically: , Among them, is the household income, is the exchange rate, is the transfer payment to residents from abroad, is the transfer payment to households from the government;
[0049] By simulating the main scenario 6, the returned carbon tax revenue is returned to the residents in the form of one-time subsidies, and the purchasing power of the residents is maintained in the form of cash subsidies, so as to avoid the decrease of residents' consumption demand due to the increase of energy cost after the implementation of carbon tax policy, and to support the stability of domestic market.
[0050] In main scenarios 7-10, the same premise is that the returned carbon tax revenue is reduced and exempted from the corporate income tax of each department except the fossil fuel and thermal power department. Under this premise, all departments except the fossil fuel department and the thermal power department obtain carbon tax revenue to reduce corporate income tax, so as to obtain new corporate income tax, and the specific calculation method is as follows: , , , Among them, is the new income tax rate of non-power department, is the new income tax rate of power department, is the tax rate of reduction and exemption, is the income tax rate of non-power department in the baseline scenario, is the income tax rate of power department in the baseline scenario.
[0051] After obtaining the above calculation formula / method of new corporate income tax, the specific analysis of how to return carbon tax revenue to the target department is carried out.
[0052] In main scenario 7, after obtaining the above new corporate income tax, the returned carbon tax revenue is distributed based on the proportion of the amount of corporate tax paid by each department, wherein the amount of corporate tax paid is proportional to the returned carbon tax revenue (i.e. the returned carbon tax revenue is recycled to each department according to the proportion of the amount of new corporate income tax paid by each department, and the more tax paid by the department, the more returned); At this time, the calculation method of and is as follows: , , Among them, WK0 is the capital price in the base year, QKD0 is the capital investment of non-power department in the base year, WK0 is the capital price in the base year, QEKD0 is the capital investment of power department in the base year;
[0053] In the main scenario 8, after obtaining the new corporate income tax mentioned above, the returned carbon tax revenue is allocated based on the proportion of the corporate income tax rate of each department, where the tax rate proportion is in a positive relationship with the returned carbon tax revenue (i.e. the returned carbon tax revenue is returned to the target department according to the income tax rate of the target department, and the department with a higher tax rate obtains more returns); at this time, the calculation method of and is as follows: , .
[0054] In the main scenario 9, after obtaining the new corporate income tax mentioned above, the returned carbon tax revenue is allocated based on the CO2 emission intensity of each department, where the CO2 emission intensity is in an inverse relationship with the returned carbon tax revenue (i.e. the department with high carbon emission intensity can obtain less carbon tax refund); at this time, the calculation method of and is as follows: , , where, is the carbon intensity of the ne department, is the carbon intensity of the nfee department, is the sum of and .
[0055] In the main scenario 10, after obtaining the new corporate income tax mentioned above, the returned carbon tax revenue is allocated based on the export intensity of each department, where the export intensity is in an inverse relationship with the returned carbon tax revenue (i.e. the department with high carbon emission intensity can obtain less carbon tax refund); at this time, the calculation method of and is as follows: , , where, is the export of the i department.
[0056] By simulating the above main scenario 7, it aims to reduce the income tax of enterprises except for the fossil fuel and thermal power departments by returning carbon tax revenue, so as to encourage such high-carbon enterprises to reduce carbon emissions and promote environmental protection.
[0057] By simulating the above main scenario 8, the carbon tax revenue is returned based on the proportion of the corporate income tax rate of each department, encouraging enterprises with lower tax rates to actively participate in emission reduction, and promoting the reduction of overall carbon emissions through economic means.
[0058] By simulating the above main scenario 9, the carbon tax revenue is returned based on the CO2 emission intensity of each department, further encouraging enterprises to reduce emission intensity, and achieving more specific environmental protection goals.
[0059] By simulating the above main scenario 10, the carbon tax revenue is returned based on the export intensity, further encouraging enterprises to increase exports, improve international competitiveness, and promote the development of low-carbon economy.
[0060] In summary, the present embodiment simulates the economic impact of different carbon tax policies on the government, residents, enterprises and foreign economic entities under the implementation of different carbon tax policies and administrative mandatory emission reduction (such as NDC target) by using dynamic CGE model, fills the gap of the existing research on the systematic comparison of the cost and benefit of the two, provides quantitative basis for the relevant carbon tax policy making, provides reference for the subsequent relevant carbon tax policy making / implementation, and further explores the differentiated impact of no carbon tax return, partial carbon tax return and special carbon tax return on economic structure and emission reduction effect by designing 10 kinds of carbon tax return schemes (such as tax reduction, clean power technology subsidy return scheme), solves the problem of "lack of tax redistribution standard", and provides guidance for the specific carbon tax policy making.
[0061] Embodiment 2:
[0062] Referring to the accompanying drawings Figure 4As shown, based on the same inventive concept, the application also provides a carbon tax revenue return system based on a CGE model, comprising: a dynamic CGE model construction module, a production function construction module, a parameter calibration module and a scenario simulation module, the dynamic CGE model construction module is used to construct a dynamic CGE model, wherein the dynamic CGE model comprises four economic subjects of government, residents, enterprises and foreign countries, and the economic aggregate composed of the four economic subjects is divided into 27 production departments; based on the differences in production characteristics and energy use types of each production department, each production department is divided into two categories of power departments and non-power departments; the production function construction module is used to construct six-layer nested production functions of non-power departments and six-layer special nested production functions of power departments based on the six-layer nested production function principle and the characteristics of power departments allowing direct substitution of fossil energy and capital after obtaining the dynamic CGE model; the parameter calibration module is used to calibrate the parameters of the dynamic CGE model based on the dynamic CGE model, and relevant environmental parameters, energy parameters, technical parameters and economic benchmark parameters as data basis, to obtain the calibrated dynamic CGE model; the scenario simulation module is used to simulate the set benchmark scenario and main scenario after obtaining the calibrated dynamic CGE model, to obtain the influence of power departments and non-power departments under different carbon tax policy scenarios, wherein the benchmark scenario is a scenario without new policy promulgation, and the main scenario includes three main scenarios of no carbon tax return, partial carbon tax return and special carbon tax return.
[0063] Optionally, the function description of the modules in Embodiment 2 corresponds to the foregoing Figure 1 The steps in the embodiments shown correspond, and will not be repeated here.
[0064] Embodiment 3:
[0065] Based on the same inventive concept, the application also provides a data processing device for a carbon tax revenue return method based on a CGE model, characterized by comprising: a memory and a processor, the memory is used to store a computer program; the processor is used to execute the computer program to realize the steps of the foregoing carbon tax revenue return method based on a CGE model.
[0066] Embodiment 4:
[0067] Based on the same inventive concept, the application also provides a computer readable storage medium, characterized by: the computer readable storage medium stores a computer program, and the computer program is executed by a processor to realize the steps of the foregoing carbon tax revenue return method based on a CGE model.
[0068] The above-described embodiments are merely preferred embodiments of the present application, and are not intended to limit the present application in any form. Any skilled person in the art, without departing from the technical scheme of the present application, can make more possible changes and modifications, or modifications to the technical scheme of the present application by using the disclosed technical content, which are equivalent embodiments of the present application. Therefore, any equivalent changes made according to the idea of the present application without departing from the technical scheme of the present application shall be covered within the protection scope of the present application.
Claims
1. A carbon tax revenue refund method based on the CGE model, characterized in that: Includes the following steps: Step 1: Construct a dynamic CGE model, which includes four economic entities: government, residents, enterprises, and foreign entities. The economic aggregate composed of these four entities is divided into 27 production sectors. Based on the differences in production characteristics and energy use types of each production sector, the production sectors are further divided into two categories: the power sector and the non-power sector. Step 2: When obtaining the dynamic CGE model, based on the principle of six-level nested production functions and combined with the characteristic that the power sector allows direct substitution of fossil energy and capital, construct six-level nested production functions for the non-power sector and six-level special nested production functions for the power sector respectively. Step 3: After obtaining the dynamic CGE model, combine relevant environmental parameters, energy parameters, technical parameters and economic benchmark parameters as the data basis to perform parameter calibration on the dynamic CGE model to obtain the calibrated dynamic CGE model; Step 4: After obtaining the calibrated dynamic CGE model, simulate the baseline scenario and the main scenarios to obtain the impact of the power sector and non-power sector under different carbon tax policy scenarios. The baseline scenario is the scenario without the promulgation of new policies, and the main scenarios include three main scenarios: no carbon tax refund, partial carbon tax refund, and special carbon tax refund.
2. The carbon tax revenue refund method based on the CGE model according to claim 1, characterized in that: The CGE model in step 1 includes a production module, a trade module, an income and expenditure module, an equilibrium and closure module, a carbon tax module, and a dynamic mechanism module. The modules are linked and coordinated through GAMS software.
3. The carbon tax revenue refund method based on the CGE model according to claim 1, characterized in that: The specific steps of step 2 are as follows: Step 2.1: Based on the CES production function principle and the Leontief production function principle, construct a six-layer nested production function for the non-power sector. Except for intermediate energy inputs which use the Leontief production function, all other production inputs use the CES production function. Step 2.2: Based on the CES production function principle and the Leontief production function principle, and combined with the characteristic that the power sector allows direct substitution of fossil energy and capital, a six-layer special nested production function is constructed for the power sector. Except for intermediate energy inputs which use the Leontief production function, all other production inputs use the CES production function.
4. The carbon tax revenue refund method based on the CGE model according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step 3, the environmental parameter is the fossil fuel CO2 emission factor, the technical parameter is the substitution elasticity value, the energy parameter is China's energy consumption structure, and the economic benchmark parameter is the SAM table compiled using China's input-output table for the benchmark year and tax data.
5. The carbon tax revenue refund method based on the CGE model according to claim 1, characterized in that: The main scenarios for the carbon tax refund category in step 4 are main scenario 1 and main scenario 2, specifically: Main Scenario 1: Set carbon emission targets at a level consistent with nationally determined contributions and calculate shadow carbon prices based on a calibrated dynamic CGE model; Main Scenario 2: A carbon tax is levied based on the carbon emission intensity level required for the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target, generating carbon tax revenue, which is then distributed based on the way the government allocates its total revenue in the baseline scenario.
6. The carbon tax revenue refund method based on the CGE model according to claim 1, characterized in that: The main scenarios for the special carbon tax rebate in step 4 are main scenarios 3, 4, 5, and 6, specifically: Key Scenario 3: Carbon tax revenue is used to subsidize the wind and solar power sectors; Main Scenario 4: Use carbon tax revenue to reduce labor taxes in sectors other than fossil fuels and thermal power. Key Scenario 5: Use carbon tax revenue to reduce capital taxes in sectors other than fossil fuels and thermal power. Scenario 6: Carbon tax revenue is returned to residents as a one-time subsidy.
7. The carbon tax revenue refund method based on the CGE model according to claim 1, characterized in that: The main scenarios for carbon tax rebates in step 4 are main scenarios 7, 8, 9, and 10, specifically: Main Scenario 7: Carbon tax revenue is used to reduce corporate income tax for sectors other than fossil fuels and thermal power, resulting in new corporate income tax. The returned carbon tax revenue is then distributed based on the proportion of corporate tax paid by each sector, with the amount of corporate tax paid being directly proportional to the amount of carbon tax returned. Main Scenario 8: Carbon tax revenue is used to reduce corporate income tax for sectors other than fossil fuels and thermal power, resulting in new corporate income tax. The returned carbon tax revenue is then distributed based on the corporate income tax rate of each sector, with the corporate income tax rate being directly proportional to the returned carbon tax revenue. Main Scenario 9: Carbon tax revenue is used to reduce corporate income tax for sectors other than fossil fuels and thermal power, resulting in new corporate income tax. The returned carbon tax revenue is then distributed based on the CO2 emission intensity of each sector, with CO2 emission intensity being inversely proportional to the returned carbon tax revenue. Scenario 10: Carbon tax revenue is used to reduce corporate income tax for sectors other than fossil fuels and thermal power, resulting in new corporate income tax. The returned carbon tax revenue is then distributed based on the export intensity of each sector, with export intensity being inversely proportional to the returned carbon tax revenue.
8. A carbon tax revenue return system based on a CGE model, characterized in that, include: The system comprises a dynamic CGE model construction module, a production function construction module, a parameter calibration module, and a scenario simulation module. The dynamic CGE model construction module is used to construct a dynamic CGE model, which includes four economic entities: government, residents, enterprises, and foreign entities. The economic aggregate comprised of these four entities is divided into 27 production sectors. Based on the differences in production characteristics and energy usage types of each production sector, these sectors are further categorized into two main types: the power sector and the non-power sector. The production function construction module, after obtaining the dynamic CGE model, constructs production function modules based on the six-level nested production function principle and considering the characteristic of the power sector allowing direct substitution of fossil fuels for capital, specifically for the non-power sector. The system includes a six-layer nested production function for the power sector and a six-layer special nested production function for the electricity sector. The parameter calibration module is used to calibrate the dynamic CGE model based on a dynamic CGE model, incorporating relevant environmental, energy, technical, and economic benchmark parameters as data foundations, to obtain a calibrated dynamic CGE model. The scenario simulation module, after obtaining the calibrated dynamic CGE model, simulates a baseline scenario and key scenarios to obtain the impact of different carbon tax policy scenarios on the power and non-power sectors. The baseline scenario is the scenario without new policy issuance, and the key scenarios include three main types: no carbon tax refund, partial carbon tax refund, and special carbon tax refund.
9. A data processing device for a carbon tax revenue return method based on a CGE model, characterized in that, include: A memory and a processor, wherein the memory is used to store computer programs; When the processor executes the computer program, it implements the steps of the carbon tax revenue return method based on the CGE model as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: The computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of a carbon tax revenue return method based on a CGE model as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.