Method and system for estimating live expansion capacity of transformer substation

Abstract

The invention relates to a method and a system for estimating live-line expansion capacity of a transformer substation. Compared with the prior art, the method and the system solve the defect that the live-line expansion capacity of the transformer substation is difficult to estimate. The method comprises the following steps: reading capacity information of a current transformer substation to be expanded; obtaining a future research information storage database; performing stage division on the expansion capacity of the transformer substation to be expanded; performing stage newly-added capacity calculation; and forming a corresponding table under different future schemes according to the first-stage new capacity and the second-stage standby capacity. According to the method, the load and the power supply which are used for a long time are comprehensively predicted and calculated as the preferential upgrading capacity expansion capacity, and the standby capacity expansion capacity calculation is realized for equipment with unbalanced scheduling, different network construction type voltages and the like.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of substation expansion technology, specifically a method and system for estimating the capacity of a substation under energized conditions. Background Technology

[0002] With the continuous growth of electricity demand, substation expansion has become a key measure to meet power supply needs. However, traditional substation expansion often requires power outages, causing inconvenience to users and affecting the stability of the power system. Therefore, the emergence and application of live-line expansion technology is of great significance to the development of the power industry. The significance of live-line substation expansion capacity estimation methods mainly includes accurate assessment, resource optimization, efficiency improvement, reduced outage time, and scientific decision-making.

[0003] Existing technical solutions require customized configuration based on specific needs, making it difficult to quickly analyze the live capacity expansion of substations. Current methods for estimating live substation capacity expansion generally rely on manual experience and static records, resulting in the following systemic problems:

[0004] 1. Data fragmentation and integration difficulties: The multi-source data required for capacity estimation (such as real-time load curves, reserve capacity ledgers, future load forecasts, distributed power access plans, energy storage configuration information, etc.) are scattered across different business systems or unstructured documents. Manual collection and alignment are inefficient, making it difficult to establish a unified, real-time, and reliable data view, resulting in incomplete or delayed estimation input.

[0005] 2. The calculation model is coarse and lacks dynamic adaptability: Traditional estimation methods often use simplified static ratios or empirical coefficients (such as fixed reserve ratios), failing to incorporate factors such as load time-varying nature, renewable energy fluctuations, the impact of grid-connected equipment, and the potential of adjustable resources into a unified calculation framework. Faced with complex and ever-changing power grid operation scenarios, the model has poor generalization ability and is unable to provide refined phased capacity requirements.

[0006] 3. Weak capability in scheme comparison and decision support: Given various future development scenarios (such as different load growth rates and different renewable energy penetration rates), it is difficult for manual methods to quickly generate and compare the capacity requirements and economics of multiple expansion schemes. There is a lack of systematic probability assessment and sensitivity analysis tools, leading to decisions relying on qualitative judgments and insufficient scientific rigor.

[0007] 4. Lack of digital linkage with planning and operation systems: The capacity estimation process is isolated from the power grid planning platform and real-time operation control system, and cannot automatically obtain the latest boundary conditions (such as changes in the grid structure and policy adjustments). The estimation results are also difficult to directly feed into subsequent construction plans, material procurement and other links, forming "data islands" and process breakpoints.

[0008] Therefore, there is an urgent need for a digital capacity estimation method based on systematic data integration, built-in professional computing models, and support for dynamic comparison of multiple schemes, in order to improve the accuracy, efficiency, and decision support level of estimation work. Summary of the Invention

[0009] The purpose of this invention is to address the shortcomings of existing technologies in estimating the capacity of substations under live expansion, and to provide a method and system for estimating the capacity of substations under live expansion to solve the above problems.

[0010] To achieve the above objectives, the technical solution of the present invention is as follows:

[0011] A method for estimating the capacity of a substation during energized expansion includes the following steps:

[0012] Read the capacity information of the substation to be expanded, including the actual operating capacity and the reserve capacity, and extract the sum of the actual operating capacity and the reserve capacity in real time as the current main and reserve capacity.

[0013] Acquire future survey information and store it in a database;

[0014] The expansion capacity of the substations to be expanded is divided into stages;

[0015] Perform phased capacity calculation: Based on the future survey information storage database and phase division, perform phased capacity calculation for each phase;

[0016] Based on the first phase of new capacity and the second phase of reserve capacity, a corresponding table is generated for different future plans: obtain all substation expansion plans for the next N years, and based on all substation expansion plans, generate a table for the first phase of new capacity and the second phase of reserve capacity.

[0017] The phased division of the expansion capacity of the substation to be expanded includes the following steps:

[0018] The capacity expansion is divided into a first phase, which is used to adapt to the current maximum peak power of the power grid.

[0019] The capacity expansion is divided into a second phase, which is used to adapt the current power grid's reserve capacity, short-circuit capacity, and unbalanced adjustable capacity.

[0020] The calculation of newly added capacity during the process includes the following steps:

[0021] For the first phase of the expanded capacity, the corresponding capacity of the first phase is calculated using the first calculation formula.

[0022] The first calculation formula is:

[0023] L1 = MaxT(F-AVG)

[0024] Where MaxT() is the daily maximum value extraction function, AVG is the daily average power supply capacity within the distribution area, F is the load forecast capacity, and L1 is the capacity corresponding to the first stage.

[0025] The new capacity for the first phase is calculated according to the second calculation formula;

[0026] The second calculation formula is:

[0027] S1 = 1.1 × (L1 - zz ÷ 1.1),

[0028] Where S1 is the newly added capacity in the first phase, and zz is the sum of the current primary and backup capacities;

[0029] Calculate the short-circuit capacity using the third calculation formula;

[0030] The third calculation formula is:

[0031] Q1 = K × dk × sp,

[0032] Where Q1 is the short-circuit capacity, sp is the power supply capacity of the transformer area, dk is the proportion of power supply in the network, and K is the increase ratio of the network capacity.

[0033] The reserve capacity is calculated using the fourth calculation formula based on the newly added capacity in the first phase.

[0034] The fourth calculation formula is:

[0035] Q2 = 0.5 × (S1 + zz)

[0036] Q2 represents the reserve capacity;

[0037] Calculate the unbalanced adjustable capacity using the fifth calculation formula;

[0038] The fifth calculation formula is:

[0039] Q3 = T1 + T2,

[0040] Where Q3 is the unbalanced adjustable capacity, T1 is the adjustable load capacity of the distribution area, and T2 is the energy storage capacity of the distribution area;

[0041] The second-stage reserve capacity is calculated using the sixth calculation formula;

[0042] The sixth calculation formula is:

[0043] S2 = Q1 + Q2 + Q3,

[0044] S2 represents the second phase of reserve capacity.

[0045] A substation live expansion capacity estimation system includes:

[0046] The capacity analysis module is used to read the capacity information of the substation that needs to be expanded.

[0047] The planning and extraction module is used to generate a database for storing future survey information based on online surveys.

[0048] The phase setting module is used to divide the capacity expansion of the substation to be expanded into phases.

[0049] The capacity setting module is used to calculate the additional capacity for each stage based on the future survey information storage database and stage division.

[0050] The table generation module is used to generate corresponding tables for different future plans based on the new capacity in the first phase and the reserve capacity in the second phase.

[0051] The online display module is used to show the probability and corresponding capacity of different expansion schemes on an electronic screen.

[0052] A computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, enables a method for estimating the capacity of a substation under energized conditions.

[0053] A computer device includes a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, which, when executed by the processor, enables a method for estimating the capacity of a substation under energized conditions.

[0054] Beneficial effects

[0055] The present invention provides a method and system for estimating the live capacity expansion of substations. Compared with the prior art, it comprehensively predicts and calculates the load and power supply used for long-term use as the priority for upgrading and expansion capacity, and realizes the calculation of standby expansion capacity for equipment with unbalanced dispatch and different network voltage types.

[0056] The present invention has the following advantages:

[0057] 1. A data-driven automated estimation pipeline was built: Through the "capacity analysis module" and "planning extraction module", the system automatically connects to internal and external data sources, realizing full automation from data collection, cleaning, fusion to calculation input, eliminating errors and delays caused by manual collection and entry, and laying a data foundation for high-precision estimation.

[0058] 2. Achieved algorithmic encapsulation and efficient calculation of complex professional models: This invention transforms the capacity estimation logic, which originally relied on expert experience, into a series of explicit mathematical calculation formulas (such as the first to sixth calculation formulas) and judgment rules. The system encapsulates and calls these models through the "capacity setting module," enabling it to complete complex capacity calculations involving multiple stages and factors within seconds. Its processing speed and consistency far exceed those of manual methods.

[0059] 3. Provides multi-scenario simulation and visualization decision support capabilities: The "table generation module" and "online display module" work together to quickly generate and display capacity demand tables and their probability distributions for various expansion schemes side-by-side based on different future scenario assumptions (such as different load growth rates and different grid power ratios). This provides decision-makers with intuitive and quantitative "if-then" analysis capabilities, enhancing the scientific rigor and foresight of planning.

[0060] 4. A standardized and reusable system framework has been formed: the phased estimation framework proposed in this invention (the first phase satisfies peak power, and the second phase satisfies safety backup), and the modular system design (such as...) Figure 8 As shown in the diagram, the specialized activity of substation expansion capacity estimation is transformed into a standardized service with configurable parameters and reusable processes. This facilitates rapid promotion and deployment across different substations and regions, reducing system development and maintenance costs.

[0061] 5. Facilitates integration with other power digital systems: The input and output interfaces of this system are clearly defined, and the estimation results (such as S1 and S2) can be directly called by subsequent material management systems, construction planning systems, and operation monitoring systems, thereby organically embedding the capacity estimation process into the entire digital chain of power grid planning and construction, and improving the overall business collaboration efficiency. Attached Figure Description

[0062] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of the method of the present invention;

[0063] Figure 2 This is a flowchart illustrating the process of reading the capacity information of a substation to be expanded, as described in this invention.

[0064] Figure 3 This is a flowchart of the process for creating a future survey information storage database based on online surveys, as described in this invention.

[0065] Figure 4 This is a flowchart illustrating the phased division of the expansion capacity of a substation to be expanded, as described in this invention.

[0066] Figure 5 This is a flowchart of the present invention, which calculates the new capacity for each stage based on the future survey information storage database and the stage division.

[0067] Figure 6 This is a flowchart of the corresponding tables for different future plans based on the first phase of new capacity and the second phase of reserve capacity involved in this invention.

[0068] Figure 7 This is a flowchart illustrating the probability and corresponding capacity of different capacity expansion schemes displayed on an electronic screen, as per the present invention.

[0069] Figure 8 This is a structural diagram of a substation live capacity expansion estimation system involved in this invention. Detailed Implementation

[0070] To provide a better understanding of the structural features and effects achieved by the present invention, a detailed description is provided below, accompanied by preferred embodiments and accompanying drawings:

[0071] In this embodiment of the invention, a method and system for estimating the capacity expansion of a substation while it is energized are provided. This solution establishes a substation capacity expansion analysis method that is adapted to phased analysis and implementation, thereby enabling phased and gradual implementation of the substation without power outages.

[0072] According to a first aspect of the present invention, a method for estimating the capacity of a substation for live expansion is provided.

[0073] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of a method for estimating the capacity of a substation under energized expansion, according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0074] In one or more embodiments, a method for estimating the capacity of a substation for live expansion includes:

[0075] Read the capacity information of the substation currently awaiting expansion;

[0076] A database for storing future survey information will be created based on online surveys.

[0077] The expansion capacity of the substations to be expanded is divided into stages;

[0078] Based on the future survey information storage database and phase division, calculate the additional capacity for each phase;

[0079] Based on the newly added capacity in the first phase and the reserve capacity in the second phase, corresponding tables are created for different future plans.

[0080] The probability and corresponding capacity of different expansion schemes are displayed on an electronic screen.

[0081] In this embodiment of the invention, the method for estimating the capacity of substations under energized conditions is of great significance to the development of the power industry. By accurately assessing and optimizing resources, improving efficiency, reducing outage time, and making scientific decisions, this method can enhance the stability and reliability of the power system and meet the ever-increasing electricity demands of users.

[0082] like Figure 2 As shown, the capacity information of the substation to be expanded is read, specifically including:

[0083] The current substation capacity is divided into two parts: the first part is the actual operating capacity, and the second part is the reserve capacity.

[0084] The sum of the actual operating capacity and the standby capacity is extracted in real time and used as the current primary and standby capacity.

[0085] In this embodiment of the invention, the premise for future substation expansion is to clarify the analysis of the current real-time capacity of the substation. The current substation capacity is divided into two parts: the first part is the actual operating capacity; the second part is the reserve capacity.

[0086] like Figure 3 As shown, a database for storing future survey information will be created based on the online survey, specifically including:

[0087] Collect future load forecasts online;

[0088] Online data collection meets the future demand for grid-based power generation.

[0089] Online collection of adjustable load capacity and energy storage capacity of power distribution areas;

[0090] All information collected online will be stored in a future survey information storage database.

[0091] In this embodiment of the invention, as future power demand increases, future load forecasts will be generated. In addition, there will be a future demand for grid-based power supply. Furthermore, there will be some adjustable load capacity and energy storage capacity of distribution areas. All of these need to be investigated in advance. After the investigation, this information will be stored in the future investigation information storage database.

[0092] like Figure 4 As shown, the capacity expansion of the substation to be expanded is divided into stages, specifically including:

[0093] The capacity expansion is divided into a first phase, which is used to adapt to the current maximum peak power of the power grid.

[0094] The capacity expansion is divided into a second phase, which is used to adapt the current power grid's reserve capacity, short-circuit capacity, and unbalanced adjustable capacity.

[0095] In this embodiment of the invention, the analysis of the live expansion of the strain relief power station is mainly divided into two stages, namely the first stage and the second stage. The first stage is used to adapt to the current maximum peak power of the power grid; the second stage is used to adapt to the current power grid's reserve capacity, short-circuit capacity and unbalanced adjustable capacity.

[0096] like Figure 5 As shown, based on the future survey information storage database and phase division, the new capacity for each phase is calculated, specifically including:

[0097] For the first phase of the expanded capacity, the corresponding capacity of the first phase is calculated using the first calculation formula.

[0098] The new capacity for the first phase is calculated according to the second calculation formula;

[0099] Calculate the short-circuit capacity using the third calculation formula;

[0100] The reserve capacity is calculated using the fourth calculation formula based on the newly added capacity in the first phase.

[0101] Calculate the unbalanced adjustable capacity using the fifth calculation formula;

[0102] The second-stage reserve capacity is calculated using the sixth calculation formula;

[0103] The first calculation formula is:

[0104] L1 = MaxT(F-AVG)

[0105] Where MaxT() is the daily maximum value extraction function, AVG is the daily average power supply capacity within the distribution area, F is the load forecast capacity, and L1 is the capacity corresponding to the first stage.

[0106] The second calculation formula is:

[0107] S1 = 1.1 × (L1 - zz ÷ 1.1),

[0108] Wherein, S1 represents the newly added capacity in the first phase, and zz represents the sum of the current primary and backup capacities;

[0109] The third calculation formula is:

[0110] Q1 = K × dk × sp,

[0111] Wherein, Q1 is the short-circuit capacity, sp is the power supply capacity of the transformer area, dk is the proportion of grid power supply, and K is the increase ratio of grid capacity;

[0112] The fourth calculation formula is:

[0113] Q2 = 0.5 × (S1 + zz)

[0114] Wherein, Q2 is the reserve capacity;

[0115] The fifth calculation formula is:

[0116] Q3 = T1 + T2,

[0117] Wherein, Q3 is the unbalanced adjustable capacity, T1 is the adjustable load capacity of the transformer area, and T2 is the energy storage capacity of the transformer area;

[0118] The sixth calculation formula is:

[0119] S2 = Q1 + Q2 + Q3,

[0120] S2 represents the reserve capacity for the second phase.

[0121] In this embodiment of the invention, capacity analysis is performed for the first stage and the second stage respectively. In the first stage, the goal is to ensure that the maximum load in the transformer area can be supplied normally. In the second stage, information such as voltage fluctuations in the future period is considered. The capacity of the first stage is calculated using the first calculation formula. Under the premise of ensuring that the load can be supplied, the potential additional power fluctuations caused by the large number of new energy sources connected in the second stage and the large number of grid-connected devices are further considered, so that the power supply can still be supplied normally when a large number of grid-connected power sources are connected.

[0122] like Figure 6 As shown, a table is created based on the new capacity in the first phase and the reserve capacity in the second phase, corresponding to different future plans. Specifically, it includes:

[0123] Obtain all possible substation expansion plans for the next N years;

[0124] Based on all possible substation expansion plans, a table is created outlining the new capacity in the first phase and the reserve capacity in the second phase.

[0125] In this embodiment of the invention, the first phase of new capacity and the second phase of reserve capacity are obtained. After obtaining them, they are stored in a table and the possible changes of the current substation expansion in the next N years are determined. Based on the different changes, the corresponding first phase of new capacity and the second phase of reserve capacity are formed.

[0126] like Figure 7 As shown, the probability and corresponding capacity of different capacity expansion schemes are displayed on the electronic screen, specifically including:

[0127] The probability and number of different capacity expansion schemes are displayed on the electronic screen;

[0128] The corresponding expansion plan will display the first phase of new capacity and the second phase of reserve capacity in a table format on the electronic screen.

[0129] In this embodiment of the invention, a probability distribution of possible substation expansion schemes for the next N years is obtained. Based on the probability distribution, the first-stage new capacity and the second-stage reserve capacity corresponding to different probabilities of the current substation expansion are directly displayed on the online screen.

[0130] According to a second aspect of the present invention, a substation live-line capacity expansion estimation system is provided.

[0131] Figure 8 This is a structural diagram of a substation live capacity expansion estimation system according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0132] A substation live expansion capacity estimation system includes:

[0133] The capacity analysis module 801 is used to read the capacity information of the substation that is currently to be expanded;

[0134] The planning extraction module 802 is used to generate a database for storing future survey information based on online surveys.

[0135] The phase setting module 803 is used to divide the expansion capacity of the substation to be expanded into phases.

[0136] The capacity setting module 804 is used to calculate the additional capacity for each stage based on the future survey information storage database and stage division;

[0137] The table generation module 805 is used to generate corresponding tables for different future plans based on the new capacity in the first phase and the reserve capacity in the second phase.

[0138] The online display module 806 is used to display the probability and corresponding capacity of different expansion schemes on an electronic screen.

[0139] In this embodiment of the invention, a system suitable for different structures is realized through a series of modular designs. This system can achieve closed-loop, reliable, and efficient execution through data acquisition, analysis, and control.

[0140] The present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon computer program instructions that, when executed by a processor, implement the method as described in any one of the first aspects of the embodiments of the present invention.

[0141] According to an embodiment of the present invention, an electronic device is provided as a general-purpose substation live-line capacity expansion estimation device, which includes a general-purpose computer hardware structure, including at least a processor 901 and a memory 902. The processor 901 and the memory 902 are connected via a bus 903. The memory 902 is adapted to store instructions or programs executable by the processor 901. The processor 901 may be a standalone microprocessor or a collection of one or more microprocessors. Thus, the processor 901 executes the instructions stored in the memory 902 to perform the method flow of the embodiments of the present invention as described above, thereby realizing data processing and control of other devices. The bus 903 connects the above-mentioned components together, and also connects the above-mentioned components to a display controller 904, a display device, and an input / output (I / O) device 905. The input / output (I / O) device 905 may be a mouse, keyboard, modem, network interface, touch input device, motion-sensing input device, printer, and other devices known in the art. Typically, the input / output device 905 is connected to the system via an input / output (I / O) controller 906.

[0142] The foregoing has shown and described the basic principles, main features, and advantages of the present invention. Those skilled in the art should understand that the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments. The embodiments and descriptions in the specification are merely principles of the invention. Various changes and modifications can be made to the invention without departing from its spirit and scope, and all such changes and modifications fall within the scope of the claimed invention. The scope of protection claimed by the appended claims and their equivalents is defined.

Claims

1. A method for estimating the capacity of a substation for live expansion, characterized in that, Includes the following steps: 11) Read the capacity information of the substation to be expanded, including the actual operating capacity and the reserve capacity, and extract the sum of the actual operating capacity and the reserve capacity in real time as the current main and reserve capacity sum; 12) Obtain and store future survey information in a database; 13) Divide the expansion capacity of the substations to be expanded into phases; 14) Calculate the new capacity for each stage: Based on the future survey information storage database and the stage division, calculate the new capacity for each stage; 15) Based on the first phase of new capacity and the second phase of reserve capacity, form a corresponding table for different future plans: obtain all substation expansion plans for the next N years, and based on all substation expansion plans, form a table of the first phase of new capacity and the second phase of reserve capacity.

2. The method for estimating the capacity of a substation under energized expansion as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The phased division of the expansion capacity of the substation to be expanded includes the following steps: 21) The capacity expansion is divided into a first phase, which is used to adapt to the current maximum peak power of the power grid; 22) The capacity expansion is divided into a second phase, which is used to adapt the current power grid's reserve capacity, short-circuit capacity and unbalanced adjustable capacity.

3. The method for estimating the capacity of a substation under energized expansion as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The calculation of newly added capacity during the implementation phase includes the following steps: 31) For the first phase of the expanded capacity, calculate the corresponding capacity of the first phase using the first calculation formula; The first calculation formula is: L1 = MaxT(F-AVG) Where MaxT() is the daily maximum value extraction function, AVG is the daily average power supply capacity within the distribution area, F is the load forecast capacity, and L1 is the capacity corresponding to the first stage. 32) Calculate the new capacity for the first phase according to the second calculation formula; The second calculation formula is: S1 = 1.1 × (L1 - zz ÷ 1.1), Where S1 is the newly added capacity in the first phase, and zz is the sum of the current primary and backup capacities; 33) Calculate the short-circuit capacity using the third calculation formula; The third calculation formula is: Q1 = K × dk × sp, Where Q1 is the short-circuit capacity, sp is the power supply capacity of the transformer area, dk is the proportion of power supply in the network, and K is the increase ratio of the network capacity. 34) Calculate the reserve capacity using the fourth calculation formula based on the newly added capacity in the first phase; The fourth calculation formula is: Q2 = 0.5 × (S1 + zz) Q2 represents the reserve capacity; 35) Calculate the unbalanced adjustable capacity using the fifth calculation formula; The fifth calculation formula is: Q3 = T1 + T2, Where Q3 is the unbalanced adjustable capacity, T1 is the adjustable load capacity of the distribution area, and T2 is the energy storage capacity of the distribution area; 36) Calculate the second-stage reserve capacity using the sixth calculation formula; The sixth calculation formula is: S2 = Q1 + Q2 + Q3, S2 represents the second phase of reserve capacity.

4. A substation live-line capacity expansion estimation system, characterized in that, include: The capacity analysis module is used to read the capacity information of the substation that needs to be expanded. The planning and extraction module is used to generate a database for storing future survey information based on online surveys. The phase setting module is used to divide the capacity expansion of the substation to be expanded into phases. The capacity setting module is used to calculate the additional capacity for each stage based on the future survey information storage database and stage division. The table generation module is used to generate corresponding tables for different future plans based on the new capacity in the first phase and the reserve capacity in the second phase. The online display module is used to show the probability and corresponding capacity of different expansion schemes on an electronic screen.

5. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, The storage medium stores a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, enables the substation live-line capacity expansion estimation method as described in any one of claims 1-4.

6. A computer device, characterized in that, It includes a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor. When the processor executes the program, it can implement the substation live-line capacity expansion estimation method according to any one of claims 1-4.

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