Effect evaluation method, system and device for cooperatively supporting dual-carbon target path by electricity-carbon market, and storage medium

Abstract

The invention discloses an effect evaluation method, system and device for an electricity-carbon market collaboratively supporting dual-carbon target path and a storage medium, and the method comprises the steps: decoupling a dual-carbon target path into an electricity carbon emission reduction path and an electricity carbon sink increase path which are collaboratively supported by the electricity-carbon market layer by layer, and determining the new investment scale of each year according to the paths. The method comprises the following steps: respectively carrying out full life cycle cost (LCC) analysis on an electric power carbon emission reduction project and an electric power carbon increment and sink project, and measuring and calculating leveling cost per kilowatt-hour (LCOE) on the basis and taking the leveling cost as an expected price for investment decision; and further performing coupling calculation on the annual newly-added investment scales of the two types of projects, the investment decision expected price and the electricity-carbon market price obtained through simulation deduction, and finally measuring and calculating the investment incentive intensity required for tracking the dual-carbon target path and the collaborative incentive intensity of the electricity-carbon market. And calibrating the deviation of the two types of excitation intensities, determining the over-excitation risk cost or the under-excitation risk cost, and taking the over-excitation risk cost or the under-excitation risk cost as an effect evaluation core index of the electricity-carbon market collaborative support double-carbon target path. The evaluation method provided by the invention synchronously covers two types of risks of excessive excitation and insufficient excitation, can realize accurate evaluation of the effect of supporting a dual-carbon target path by various electricity-carbon market mechanisms, and provides direct decision support for a market supervision mechanism to carry out electricity-carbon market mechanism design.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of dual-carbon transformation and the electricity-carbon market, and in particular to an effect evaluation method, system, device and storage medium for the synergistic support of the electricity-carbon market for dual-carbon target pathways. Background Technology

[0002] The electricity market plays a role in allocating electricity resources and discovering prices for different electricity commodities, while the carbon market plays a role in allocating resources for emission control and carbon sink enhancement and discovering prices for carbon emission and carbon sink commodities. The coordinated development of the electricity and carbon markets can maximize the optimizing role of market mechanisms in energy resource allocation and climate governance, better supporting energy transition and the achievement of dual-carbon goals. Existing technologies have proposed various assessment methods for the resource allocation efficiency of the electricity-carbon market, but they have the following shortcomings: First, existing assessment methods mostly focus on a single dimension (such as carbon emission reduction or the economic benefits of the electricity market), failing to reflect the degree of support for dual-carbon goals from a holistic system perspective; second, they do not comprehensively consider the interaction between the electricity and carbon markets, failing to reflect the multi-dimensional coupling effects of the electricity-carbon market; and third, current assessments rely heavily on qualitative analysis, lacking a unified quantitative assessment framework and implementation system. Summary of the Invention

[0003] Purpose of the Invention: The purpose of this invention is to provide a method, system, device, and storage medium for evaluating the effectiveness of the synergistic support of the electricity-carbon market for dual-carbon goals. This will provide evaluation results for the promotion of dual-carbon goals and investment in carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration projects in various regions under different evolution scenarios of electricity-carbon market mechanisms, thereby solving the problems existing in the background technology.

[0004] Technical Solution: The present invention provides an evaluation method for the effectiveness of electricity-carbon market synergy in supporting a dual-carbon target path, comprising: obtaining the dual-carbon target path; decomposing the dual-carbon target path layer by layer; decoupling the electricity carbon emission reduction component and the electricity carbon sequestration component supported by the electricity-carbon market synergy; clarifying the annual new investment scale of electricity carbon emission reduction projects and electricity carbon sequestration projects; analyzing the various costs and benefits of electricity carbon emission reduction projects and electricity carbon sequestration projects from the perspectives of investment, operation, and decommissioning; calculating the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of electricity carbon emission reduction projects and electricity carbon sequestration projects as the expected price for investment decisions based on the cost-benefit analysis results; and calculating the expected price for investment decisions based on the annual new investment scale and the investment of the projects. The decision-making process involves anticipating prices and calculating the investment incentive intensity required to track the dual-carbon target path. Based on the annual new investment scale of power carbon emission reduction and power carbon sequestration projects and the simulated power carbon market price, the synergistic incentive intensity of the electricity-carbon market is calculated. Deviations in investment incentive intensity and synergistic incentive intensity are calibrated, and the over-incentive risk cost or under-incentive risk cost is determined and quantified based on the calibration results. The over-incentive risk cost and under-incentive risk cost for each year are then accumulated annually to obtain the total project incentive risk cost. Based on the total project incentive risk cost, the supporting effects of the power carbon emission reduction target path, the power carbon sequestration target path, and the overall dual-carbon target path are evaluated.

[0005] Furthermore, the dual-carbon target path is broken down layer by layer, decoupling the electricity-carbon market synergy support component of electricity carbon emission reduction and electricity carbon sequestration, and clarifying the annual new investment scale of electricity carbon emission reduction projects and electricity carbon sequestration projects. Specifically, this includes: setting a dual-carbon target path covering the start and end years (i.e., the year of carbon neutrality achievement), clarifying the annual total carbon emissions and total carbon accumulation; decomposing the total carbon emissions within the assessment period into non-anthropogenic carbon emissions and anthropogenic carbon emissions; further decomposing anthropogenic carbon emissions into non-energy carbon emissions and energy carbon emissions; refining energy carbon emissions into non-electric energy carbon emissions and electricity carbon emissions; based on the decoupled electricity carbon emissions and the set thermal power emission factor, deriving the thermal power generation path corresponding to this electricity carbon emission path; reading the annual total power generation trajectory of this path, calculating the non-fossil energy power generation that meets the power balance requirement, and using this as the electricity carbon emission reduction path to be assessed; based on the electricity carbon emission reduction path, supplementing the capacity allocation and utilization hours of various non-fossil energy sources in power planning, and obtaining the annual wind power installed capacity. Photovoltaic installed capacity Hydropower installed capacity and nuclear power installed capacity The total carbon sequestration during the assessment period is broken down into non-anthropogenic carbon sinks and anthropogenic carbon sinks; anthropogenic carbon sinks are further broken down into technological carbon sinks and natural carbon sinks; technological carbon sinks are further refined into electricity carbon sinks, non-electric energy carbon sinks, and non-energy technological carbon sinks; based on the decoupled electricity carbon sink volume and the set carbon capture rate parameters, the installed capacity of thermal power CCUS corresponding to this electricity carbon sink path is calculated. This will serve as a pathway for increasing carbon sequestration in the power sector to be evaluated.

[0006] Furthermore, this analysis examines the costs and benefits of power generation carbon emission reduction projects and power generation carbon sequestration projects from the perspectives of investment, operation, and decommissioning. This includes: defining the cost items of power generation carbon emission reduction projects according to the investment, operation, and decommissioning stages; costs in the investment stage include core equipment costs, engineering construction costs, and other investment costs; costs in the operation stage include operation and maintenance costs, labor costs, and other operating costs; costs in the decommissioning stage include asset disposal costs; defining the benefit items of power generation carbon emission reduction projects in the operation stage; benefits in the operation stage include power generation revenue from participating in various temporal and spatial scale electricity markets, ancillary service markets, and green electricity markets; defining the cost items of power generation carbon sequestration projects according to the investment, operation, and decommissioning stages; costs in the investment stage include core equipment costs, engineering construction costs, and other investment costs; costs in the operation stage include capture and compression costs, transportation costs, and utilization and storage costs; costs in the decommissioning stage include asset disposal costs; defining the benefit items of power generation carbon sequestration projects in the operation stage; benefits in the operation stage include emission cost reduction benefits, industrial carbon dioxide sales revenue, and oil displacement revenue.

[0007] Furthermore, based on the cost-benefit analysis results, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for both the power carbon emission reduction project and the power carbon sequestration project is calculated as the expected price for the project's investment decision. Specifically, this includes: matching industry benchmarks to set the discount rate and project lifespan for the power carbon emission reduction project, and calculating the LCOE based on the full life-cycle cost from step S21, using this as the expected price for the investment decision that meets the economic requirements. The discount rate and project lifespan of the power carbon sequestration project are set in accordance with industry benchmarks, and the levelized cost per kilowatt-hour is calculated based on the total life-cycle cost, which serves as the expected price for investment decisions that meet the requirements of investment economics. .

[0008] Furthermore, based on the annual new investment scale and the expected price of investment decisions for projects, the required investment incentive intensity to track the dual-carbon target path is calculated; this includes: calculating the annual new investment scale for power carbon emission reduction projects, based on the output annual non-fossil energy installed capacity, and obtaining the first [year's] investment intensity by calculating the difference between the installed capacity of two adjacent years. New wind power installed capacity in 2018 New photovoltaic installed capacity New installed capacity of hydropower and the scale of newly installed nuclear power capacity The annual new investment scale for power carbon sequestration projects is calculated based on the output annual thermal power CCUS installed capacity. This is achieved by calculating the difference between the installed capacity of two adjacent years. New installed capacity of thermal power CCUS in 2018 This calculation determines the investment incentive intensity required to track the carbon emission path in the dual-carbon target pathway. Based on the expected investment decision prices for wind power, solar power, hydropower, and nuclear power, and multiplying each by the corresponding new installed capacity, the investment incentive intensity for wind power, solar power, hydropower, and nuclear power that meets the requirements for tracking the carbon emission reduction pathway in the power industry is obtained, denoted as [missing information]. , , and Calculate the investment incentive intensity required to track the carbon sequestration path in the dual-carbon target pathway. Based on the expected price of thermal power CCUS investment decisions, multiply the corresponding new installed capacity to obtain the thermal power CCUS investment incentive intensity that meets the requirements for tracking the power carbon sequestration path, denoted as . .

[0009] Furthermore, based on the annual new investment scale of power carbon emission reduction and power carbon sequestration projects and the simulated electricity carbon market price, the synergistic incentive intensity of the electricity-carbon market is calculated. This includes: using the annual installed capacity as input, conducting joint simulations of the electricity market and carbon market to obtain the clearing prices and quantities of the electricity market, ancillary services market, green electricity market, and carbon emission market at different time and space scales; and based on the market clearing results, calculating the levelized revenue per kilowatt-hour obtained by power carbon emission reduction projects. , , , Based on the market clearing results, the reduction in emission costs caused by carbon dioxide capture is calculated. Simultaneously, the revenue from the sale of industrial carbon dioxide and the revenue from oil displacement obtained by the power generation carbon sink project outside the market are defined, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the power generation carbon sink project is calculated. ; Calculate the synergistic incentive intensity of the electricity-carbon market for electricity carbon reduction and carbon sink enhancement projects; Based on the newly installed capacity, multiply the corresponding calculation results by the levelized rate of return per kilowatt-hour to obtain the actual incentive intensity obtained by electricity carbon reduction projects and carbon sink enhancement projects participating in the electricity-carbon market. , , , and .

[0010] Furthermore, the deviations in investment incentive intensity and synergistic incentive intensity are calibrated. Based on the calibration results, the risk costs of over-incentive or under-incentive are determined and quantified. This includes: calculating the deviation between the required investment incentive intensity and the synergistic incentive intensity of the electricity carbon emission reduction project and the electricity carbon sequestration project throughout their entire life cycle; a deviation greater than 0 is considered under-incentive, and a deviation less than 0 is considered over-incentive; calculating the effectiveness of the electricity-carbon market in supporting the dual-carbon target path; and summing the absolute values ​​of the calculated incentive deviations for each project to obtain the risk cost of over- / under-incentive in the electricity carbon market. Based on this, the supporting effect of the electricity carbon emission reduction target path, the electricity carbon sequestration target path, and the overall dual-carbon target path is evaluated. The lower the risk cost, the better the synergistic incentive effect of the electricity-carbon market, and vice versa.

[0011] The present invention provides an effect evaluation system for the synergistic support of the electricity-carbon market for a dual-carbon target path, comprising:

[0012] New investment module: used to obtain dual carbon target path, decompose the dual carbon target path layer by layer, decouple the electricity carbon emission reduction component and the electricity carbon sequestration component supported by the electricity-carbon market synergy, and clarify the annual new investment scale of electricity carbon emission reduction projects and electricity carbon sequestration projects.

[0013] Investment Decision Expectation Module: This module analyzes the costs and benefits of power carbon emission reduction projects and power carbon sequestration projects from the perspectives of investment, operation, and decommissioning; based on the cost-benefit analysis results, it calculates the levelized cost per kilowatt-hour (LCOE) of power carbon emission reduction projects and power carbon sequestration projects as the expected price for investment decisions of the projects.

[0014] Investment Incentive Strength Module: Used to calculate the investment incentive strength required to track the dual-carbon target path based on the annual new investment scale and the expected price of investment decisions for projects;

[0015] Synergistic Incentive Module: Used to calculate the synergistic incentive intensity of the electricity-carbon market based on the annual new investment scale of electricity carbon emission reduction and electricity carbon sequestration projects and the electricity carbon market price obtained through simulation.

[0016] Calibration module: used to calibrate the deviations in investment incentive intensity and synergistic incentive intensity, judge and quantify the risk cost of over-incentive or under-incentive based on the calibration results; accumulate the risk costs of over-incentive and under-incentive for each year to obtain the total incentive risk cost of the project; evaluate the supporting effect of the power carbon emission reduction target path, the power carbon sequestration target path, and the overall dual-carbon target path based on the total incentive risk cost of the project.

[0017] Furthermore, the newly added investment module breaks down the dual-carbon target path layer by layer, decoupling the electricity-carbon market synergistic support component for carbon emission reduction and the electricity-carbon sequestration component. It also clarifies the specific annual new investment scale for electricity carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration projects, including: setting a dual-carbon target path covering the start and end years (i.e., the year of carbon neutrality achievement), and clarifying the annual total carbon emissions and total carbon emissions; breaking down the "total carbon emissions" within the assessment period into "non-anthropogenic carbon emissions" and "anthropogenic carbon emissions"; and further breaking down "anthropogenic carbon emissions" into "non-energy carbon emissions". The concept of "energy carbon emissions" is further broken down into "non-electric energy carbon emissions" and "electricity carbon emissions." Based on the decoupled electricity carbon emissions and the established thermal power emission factor, the corresponding thermal power generation path is derived. The annual total power generation trajectory of this path is read, and the non-fossil energy power generation that meets the power balance is calculated, which serves as the electricity carbon emission reduction path to be evaluated. Based on the electricity carbon emission reduction path, the capacity allocation and utilization hours of various non-fossil energy sources in power planning are supplemented to obtain the annual wind power installed capacity. Photovoltaic installed capacity Hydropower installed capacity and nuclear power installed capacity The total carbon sequestration during the assessment period is broken down into non-anthropogenic carbon sinks and anthropogenic carbon sinks; anthropogenic carbon sinks are further broken down into technological carbon sinks and natural carbon sinks; technological carbon sinks are further refined into "electricity carbon sinks, non-electric energy carbon sinks, and non-energy technology carbon sinks"; based on the decoupled electricity carbon sink volume and the set carbon capture rate parameters, the corresponding thermal power CCUS installed capacity is calculated. This will serve as a pathway for increasing carbon sequestration in the power sector to be evaluated.

[0018] Furthermore, the investment decision expectation module analyzes the various costs and benefits of power carbon emission reduction projects and power carbon sequestration projects from the perspectives of investment, operation, and decommissioning. This includes: defining the cost items of power carbon emission reduction projects according to the investment, operation, and decommissioning stages; costs in the investment stage include core equipment costs, engineering construction costs, and other investment costs; costs in the operation stage include operation and maintenance costs, labor costs, and other operating costs; costs in the decommissioning stage include asset disposal costs; defining the benefit items of power carbon emission reduction projects in the operation stage; benefits in the operation stage include power generation revenue from participating in various temporal and spatial scale electricity markets, ancillary service markets, and green electricity markets; defining the cost items of power carbon sequestration projects according to the investment, operation, and decommissioning stages; costs in the investment stage include core equipment costs, engineering construction costs, and other investment costs; costs in the operation stage include capture and compression costs, transportation costs, and utilization and storage costs; costs in the decommissioning stage include asset disposal costs; defining the benefit items of power carbon sequestration projects in the operation stage; benefits in the operation stage include emission cost reduction benefits, industrial carbon dioxide sales revenue, and oil recovery revenue.

[0019] Furthermore, in the investment incentive intensity module, based on the cost-benefit analysis results, the levelized cost per kilowatt-hour (LCOE) of the power carbon emission reduction project and the power carbon sequestration project is calculated as the expected price for the project's investment decision. Specifically, this includes: matching industry benchmarks to set the discount rate and project lifespan of the power carbon emission reduction project, and calculating the LCOE based on the full life-cycle cost in step S21, using this as the expected price for the investment decision that meets the economic requirements. The discount rate and project lifespan of the power carbon sequestration project are set in accordance with industry benchmarks, and the levelized cost per kilowatt-hour is calculated based on the total life-cycle cost, which serves as the expected price for investment decisions that meet the requirements of investment economics. .

[0020] Furthermore, in the investment incentive intensity module, the required investment incentive intensity for tracking the dual-carbon target path is calculated based on the annual new investment scale and the expected investment decision price of the project; this includes: calculating the annual new investment scale of the power carbon emission reduction project, and based on the output annual non-fossil energy installed capacity, calculating the difference between the installed capacity of two adjacent years to obtain the first... New wind power installed capacity in 2018 New photovoltaic installed capacity New installed capacity of hydropower and the scale of newly installed nuclear power capacity The annual new investment scale for power carbon sequestration projects is calculated based on the output annual thermal power CCUS installed capacity. This is achieved by calculating the difference between the installed capacity of two adjacent years. New installed capacity of thermal power CCUS in 2018 This calculation determines the investment incentive intensity required to track the carbon emission path in the dual-carbon target pathway. Based on the expected investment decision prices for wind power, solar power, hydropower, and nuclear power, and multiplying each by the corresponding new installed capacity, the investment incentive intensity for wind power, solar power, hydropower, and nuclear power that meets the requirements for tracking the carbon emission reduction pathway in the power industry is obtained, denoted as [missing information]. , , and Calculate the investment incentive intensity required to track the carbon sequestration path in the dual-carbon target pathway. Based on the expected price of thermal power CCUS investment decisions, multiply the corresponding new installed capacity to obtain the thermal power CCUS investment incentive intensity that meets the requirements for tracking the power carbon sequestration path, denoted as . .

[0021] Furthermore, in the collaborative incentive module, the intensity of the collaborative incentive in the electricity-carbon market is calculated based on the annual new investment scale of electricity carbon emission reduction and electricity carbon sequestration projects and the electricity carbon market price obtained from simulation. This includes: using the annual installed capacity as input, conducting joint simulations of the electricity market and carbon market to obtain the clearing prices and quantities of the electricity market, ancillary services market, green electricity market, and carbon emission market at different time and space scales; and calculating the levelized revenue per kilowatt-hour obtained by electricity carbon emission reduction projects based on the market clearing results. , , , Based on the market clearing results, the reduction in emission costs caused by carbon dioxide capture is calculated. Simultaneously, the revenue from the sale of industrial carbon dioxide and the revenue from oil displacement obtained by the power generation carbon sink project outside the market are defined, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the power generation carbon sink project is calculated. ; Calculate the synergistic incentive intensity of the electricity-carbon market for electricity carbon reduction and carbon sink enhancement projects; Based on the newly installed capacity, multiply the corresponding calculation results by the levelized rate of return per kilowatt-hour to obtain the actual incentive intensity obtained by electricity carbon reduction projects and carbon sink enhancement projects participating in the electricity-carbon market. , , , and .

[0022] Furthermore, the calibration module calibrates the deviations in investment incentive intensity and synergistic incentive intensity. Based on the calibration results, it determines and quantifies the risk costs of over-incentive or under-incentive. This includes: calculating the deviation between the required investment incentive intensity and the synergistic incentive intensity of the electricity carbon emission reduction project and the electricity carbon sequestration project throughout their entire life cycle; a deviation greater than 0 is considered under-incentive, and a deviation less than 0 is considered over-incentive; calculating the effectiveness of the electricity-carbon market in supporting the dual-carbon target path; and summing the absolute values ​​of the calculated incentive deviations for each project to obtain the risk costs of over- / under-incentive in the electricity carbon market. Based on this, the supporting effect of the electricity carbon emission reduction target path, the electricity carbon sequestration target path, and the overall dual-carbon target path is evaluated. The lower the risk cost, the better the synergistic incentive effect of the electricity-carbon market, and vice versa.

[0023] An electronic device according to the present invention includes a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and the processor executes the program to implement the method described herein.

[0024] The present invention discloses a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, implements the method described herein.

[0025] Beneficial effects: Compared with the prior art, the advantages of this invention are: it has good adaptability to different regions and different types of power carbon emission reduction and power carbon sequestration projects, and at the same time, it can provide accurate supporting effect evaluation results for various time-space-material scale power-carbon markets and mechanism design schemes. Attached Figure Description

[0026] Figure 1 The flowchart shows the effect evaluation method of the electricity-carbon market synergy supporting the dual-carbon target path of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0027] The technical solution of the present invention will be further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0028] Step 1: Establish a dual-carbon target path covering the start and end years (i.e., the year of achieving carbon neutrality), and clarify the total annual carbon emissions and total carbon sink. Based on the "holistic reduction thinking," the given dual-carbon target path is decomposed layer by layer to obtain the electricity carbon emission component path and the electricity carbon sink component path affected by the allocation of electricity-carbon market resources.

[0029] (1) The total carbon emissions during the assessment period are broken down into non-human carbon emissions and human carbon emissions; secondly, human carbon emissions are further broken down into non-energy carbon emissions and energy carbon emissions; finally, energy carbon emissions are further broken down into "non-electric energy carbon emissions and electricity carbon emissions".

[0030] (2) The total amount of carbon during the assessment period is decomposed into non-human carbon sinks and human carbon sinks; secondly, human carbon sinks are further decomposed into technological carbon sinks and natural carbon sinks; finally, technological carbon sinks are further decomposed into electricity carbon sinks, non-electric energy carbon sinks and non-energy technology carbon sinks.

[0031] Step 2: Set external boundary conditions based on annual electricity carbon emissions. The annual installed capacity of non-fossil energy and the annual new investment scale are calculated to serve as the target electricity carbon emission reduction path to be evaluated.

[0032] (1) Obtaining carbon emissions from electricity And set the emission factor for thermal power. Calculate the thermal power generation according to formula (1) :

[0033] (1)

[0034] (2) Read the annual total power generation path that is consistent with the dual-carbon target path. Set the power allocation ratio of wind power, solar power, hydropower and nuclear power in power planning. , , , and usage hours , , , Calculate the annual non-fossil energy installed capacity using formulas (2-1) to (2-4):

[0035] (2-1)

[0036] (2-2)

[0037] (2-3)

[0038] (2-4)

[0039] (3) Read the annual non-fossil energy installed capacity and calculate the annual new investment scale of non-fossil energy required to meet the target electricity carbon emission path according to formula (3):

[0040] (3-1)

[0041] (3-2)

[0042] (3-3)

[0043] (3-4)

[0044] (4) Obtaining the carbon sequestration of electricity The annual additional carbon capture capacity of thermal power CCUS required to meet the target power carbon sink path is calculated according to formula (4), and this is used as the target power carbon sink path to be evaluated.

[0045] (4)

[0046] Step 3: According to the division of investment stage, operation stage and decommissioning stage, calculate the full life cycle cost of each power carbon emission reduction project according to formulas (5-1) to (5-4).

[0047] (5-1)

[0048] (5-2)

[0049] (5-3)

[0050] (5-4)

[0051] In the formula, The first includes core equipment costs, engineering construction costs, and other investment costs. The total initial investment cost of carbon emission reduction projects; For the first, which includes maintenance costs, labor costs, and other operating costs The annual operating costs of carbon reduction projects; For the first The decommissioning costs of carbon emission reduction projects.

[0052] Step 4: Calculate the full life cycle cost of the power carbon sequestration project according to the formula (6) based on the division of investment stage, operation stage and decommissioning stage.

[0053] (6)

[0054] In the formula, The initial total investment cost of a power-based carbon sequestration project, including core equipment costs, engineering construction costs, and other investment costs. The annual cost of capture and compression for power generation carbon sequestration projects; The annual transportation costs for the electricity carbon sequestration project; The annual utilization and storage costs for the electricity carbon sequestration project.

[0055] Step 5: Set the discount rate based on the total life cycle cost of each power carbon reduction project. and the project lifecycle The levelized cost of electricity is calculated according to formulas (7-1) to (7-4), and this is used as the expected price for investment decisions.

[0056] (7-1)

[0057] (7-2)

[0058] (7-3)

[0059] (7-4)

[0060] In the formula, The annual power generation of wind power The annual power generation of photovoltaic power. The annual power generation of hydropower. This refers to the annual power generation of nuclear power plants.

[0061] Step 6: Set the discount rate based on the total life cycle cost of each electricity carbon sequestration project. and the project lifecycle The levelized cost per kilowatt-hour is calculated according to formula (8), and this is used as the expected price for its investment decision:

[0062] (8)

[0063] In the formula, The annual power generation of the coal-fired power plant to be installed with CCUS.

[0064] Step 7: Based on the revenue that the electricity carbon reduction project can obtain in various electricity markets, calculate the levelized revenue per kilowatt-hour for each year using formulas (9-1) to (9-4):

[0065] (9-1)

[0066] (9-2)

[0067] (9-3)

[0068] (9-4)

[0069] In the formula, To clear prices in the electricity market, To facilitate market clearing prices for ancillary services, To clear prices in the green electricity market For power carbon emission reduction projects Clearing volume in the electricity market For power carbon emission reduction projects Clearing volume in the ancillary services market For power carbon emission reduction projects Clearing out in the green electricity market.

[0070] Step 8: Based on the full life-cycle revenue of each power generation carbon sequestration project, set the annual oil recovery revenue as follows: The annual revenue from the sale of industrial carbon dioxide is Considering the reduction in emission costs due to carbon dioxide capture, the per-kilowatt-hour revenue of adding CCUS to thermal power plants is calculated according to formula (10):

[0071] (10)

[0072] Step 9: Calculate the required investment incentive intensity to meet the economic requirements of the power generation carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration projects using formulas (11-1) to (11-5):

[0073] (11-1)

[0074] (11-2)

[0075] (11-3)

[0076] (11-4)

[0077] (11-5)

[0078] Step 10: Calculate the synergistic incentive intensity of the electricity carbon market for electricity carbon emission reduction projects and electricity carbon sequestration projects according to formulas (12-1) to (12-5):

[0079] (12-1)

[0080] (12-2)

[0081] (12-3)

[0082] (12-4)

[0083] (12-5)

[0084] Step 11: Based on the deviation between the incentive intensity required for the power carbon emission reduction project and the power carbon sequestration project and the incentive intensity for the coordinated development of the power carbon market, calculate the risk cost of the coordinated support of the power carbon market for the dual carbon target path according to formulas (13-1) to (13-3), and use this as an indicator for evaluating the support effect.

[0085] (13-1)

[0086] (13-2)

[0087] (13-3)

[0088] In the formula: The risk costs of coordinating the electricity carbon market to support the target electricity carbon emission path; The risks and costs of supporting the target electricity carbon sink path through coordinated efforts in the electricity carbon market; The risks and costs of coordinating the electricity carbon market to support the dual-carbon pathway.

[0089] This invention also provides an evaluation system for the effectiveness of the synergistic support of the electricity-carbon market for the dual-carbon target pathway, comprising:

[0090] New investment module: used to obtain dual carbon target path, decompose the dual carbon target path layer by layer, decouple the electricity carbon emission reduction component and the electricity carbon sequestration component supported by the electricity-carbon market synergy, and clarify the annual new investment scale of electricity carbon emission reduction projects and electricity carbon sequestration projects.

[0091] Investment Decision Expectation Module: This module analyzes the costs and benefits of power carbon emission reduction projects and power carbon sequestration projects from the perspectives of investment, operation, and decommissioning; based on the cost-benefit analysis results, it calculates the levelized cost per kilowatt-hour (LCOE) of power carbon emission reduction projects and power carbon sequestration projects as the expected price for investment decisions of the projects.

[0092] Investment Incentive Strength Module: Used to calculate the investment incentive strength required to track the dual-carbon target path based on the annual new investment scale and the expected price of investment decisions for projects;

[0093] Synergistic Incentive Module: Used to calculate the synergistic incentive intensity of the electricity-carbon market based on the annual new investment scale of electricity carbon emission reduction and electricity carbon sequestration projects and the electricity carbon market price obtained through simulation.

[0094] Calibration module: used to calibrate the deviations in investment incentive intensity and synergistic incentive intensity, judge and quantify the risk cost of over-incentive or under-incentive based on the calibration results; accumulate the risk costs of over-incentive and under-incentive for each year to obtain the total incentive risk cost of the project; evaluate the supporting effect of the power carbon emission reduction target path, the power carbon sequestration target path, and the overall dual-carbon target path based on the total incentive risk cost of the project.

[0095] The newly added investment module decomposes the dual-carbon target path layer by layer, decoupling the electricity-carbon market synergy support component of electricity carbon emission reduction and electricity carbon sequestration, and clarifying the annual new investment scale of electricity carbon emission reduction projects and electricity carbon sequestration projects. Specifically, this includes: setting a dual-carbon target path covering the start and end years (i.e., the year of carbon neutrality achievement), clarifying the annual total carbon emissions and total carbon accumulation; decomposing the total carbon emissions within the assessment period into non-anthropogenic and anthropogenic carbon emissions; further decomposing anthropogenic carbon emissions into non-energy and energy carbon emissions; refining energy carbon emissions into non-electric energy carbon emissions and electricity carbon emissions; based on the decoupled electricity carbon emissions and the set thermal power emission factor, deriving the corresponding thermal power generation path for this electricity carbon emission path; reading the annual total power generation trajectory of this path, calculating the non-fossil energy power generation that meets the power balance requirement, and using this as the electricity carbon emission reduction path to be assessed; and based on the electricity carbon emission reduction path, supplementing the capacity allocation and utilization hours of various non-fossil energy sources in power planning to obtain the annual wind power installed capacity. Photovoltaic installed capacity Hydropower installed capacity and nuclear power installed capacity The total carbon sequestration during the assessment period is broken down into non-anthropogenic carbon sinks and anthropogenic carbon sinks; anthropogenic carbon sinks are further broken down into technological carbon sinks and natural carbon sinks; technological carbon sinks are further refined into electricity carbon sinks, non-electric energy carbon sinks, and non-energy technological carbon sinks; based on the decoupled electricity carbon sink volume and the set carbon capture rate parameters, the installed capacity of thermal power CCUS corresponding to this electricity carbon sink path is calculated. This will serve as a pathway for increasing carbon sequestration in the power sector to be evaluated.

[0096] The investment decision-making expectation module analyzes the costs and benefits of power carbon emission reduction projects and power carbon sequestration projects from the perspectives of investment, operation, and decommissioning. This includes: defining the cost items of power carbon emission reduction projects according to the investment, operation, and decommissioning stages; costs in the investment stage include core equipment costs, engineering construction costs, and other investment costs; costs in the operation stage include operation and maintenance costs, labor costs, and other operating costs; costs in the decommissioning stage include asset disposal costs; defining the benefit items of power carbon emission reduction projects in the operation stage; benefits in the operation stage include power generation revenue from participating in various temporal and spatial scale electricity markets, ancillary service markets, and green electricity markets; defining the cost items of power carbon sequestration projects according to the investment, operation, and decommissioning stages; costs in the investment stage include core equipment costs, engineering construction costs, and other investment costs; costs in the operation stage include capture and compression costs, transportation costs, and utilization and storage costs; costs in the decommissioning stage include asset disposal costs; defining the benefit items of power carbon sequestration projects in the operation stage; benefits in the operation stage include emission cost reduction benefits, industrial carbon dioxide sales revenue, and oil displacement revenue.

[0097] In the investment incentive intensity module, based on the cost-benefit analysis results, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for both the power carbon emission reduction project and the power carbon sequestration project is calculated as the expected price for the project's investment decision. Specifically, this includes: matching industry benchmarks to set the discount rate and project lifespan for the power carbon emission reduction project, and calculating the LCOE based on the full life-cycle cost in step S21, using this as the expected price for the investment decision that meets the economic requirements. The discount rate and project lifespan of the power carbon sequestration project are set in accordance with industry benchmarks, and the levelized cost per kilowatt-hour is calculated based on the total life-cycle cost, which serves as the expected price for investment decisions that meet the requirements of investment economics. .

[0098] The investment incentive intensity module calculates the investment incentive intensity required to track the dual-carbon target path based on the annual new investment scale and the expected investment decision price of the project; this includes: calculating the annual new investment scale of the power carbon emission reduction project, and based on the output annual non-fossil energy installed capacity, calculating the difference between the installed capacity of two adjacent years to obtain the first... New wind power installed capacity in 2018 New photovoltaic installed capacity New installed capacity of hydropower and the scale of newly installed nuclear power capacity The annual new investment scale for power carbon sequestration projects is calculated based on the output annual thermal power CCUS installed capacity. This is achieved by calculating the difference between the installed capacity of two adjacent years. New installed capacity of thermal power CCUS in 2018 This calculation determines the investment incentive intensity required to track the carbon emission path in the dual-carbon target pathway. Based on the expected investment decision prices for wind power, solar power, hydropower, and nuclear power, and multiplying each by the corresponding new installed capacity, the investment incentive intensity for wind power, solar power, hydropower, and nuclear power that meets the requirements for tracking the carbon emission reduction pathway in the power industry is obtained, denoted as [missing information]. , , and Calculate the investment incentive intensity required to track the carbon sequestration path in the dual-carbon target pathway. Based on the expected price of thermal power CCUS investment decisions, multiply the corresponding new installed capacity to obtain the thermal power CCUS investment incentive intensity that meets the requirements for tracking the power carbon sequestration path, denoted as . .

[0099] In the collaborative incentive module, the intensity of collaborative incentives in the electricity-carbon market is calculated based on the annual new investment scale of electricity carbon emission reduction and electricity carbon sequestration projects and the electricity carbon market price obtained from simulation. This includes: conducting joint simulations of the electricity market and carbon market using the annual installed capacity as input, obtaining the clearing prices and quantities of electricity market, ancillary services market, green electricity market, and carbon emission market at different time and space scales; and calculating the levelized revenue per kilowatt-hour (LQE) obtained by electricity carbon emission reduction projects based on the market clearing results. , , , Based on the market clearing results, the reduction in emission costs caused by carbon dioxide capture is calculated. Simultaneously, the revenue from the sale of industrial carbon dioxide and the revenue from oil displacement obtained by the power generation carbon sink project outside the market are defined, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the power generation carbon sink project is calculated. ; Calculate the synergistic incentive intensity provided by the electricity-carbon market to electricity carbon reduction and carbon sink enhancement projects; Based on the newly installed capacity, multiply the corresponding calculation results by the levelized rate of return per kilowatt-hour to obtain the actual incentive intensity obtained by electricity carbon reduction projects and carbon sink enhancement projects participating in the electricity-carbon market. , , , and .

[0100] The calibration module calibrates the deviations in investment incentive intensity and synergistic incentive intensity. Based on the calibration results, it determines and quantifies the risk costs of over-incentive or under-incentive. This includes: calculating the deviation between the required investment incentive intensity and the synergistic incentive intensity of the electricity carbon emission reduction project and the electricity carbon sequestration project throughout their entire life cycle; a deviation greater than 0 is considered under-incentive, and a deviation less than 0 is considered over-incentive; calculating the effectiveness of the electricity-carbon market in supporting the dual-carbon target path; and summing the absolute values ​​of the calculated incentive deviations for each project to obtain the risk cost of over- / under-incentive in the electricity carbon market. Based on this, the supporting effect of the electricity carbon emission reduction target path, the electricity carbon sequestration target path, and the overall dual-carbon target path is evaluated. The lower the risk cost, the better the synergistic incentive effect of the electricity-carbon market, and vice versa.

[0101] This invention also provides an electronic device, including a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and the processor executes the program to implement the method described above.

[0102] This invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the method described above.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating the effectiveness of electricity-carbon market synergy in supporting a dual-carbon target pathway, characterized in that, include: This study identifies a dual-carbon target path, breaks it down layer by layer, decouples the electricity-carbon market synergy support component of electricity carbon emission reduction and electricity carbon sequestration, and clarifies the annual new investment scale for electricity carbon emission reduction projects and electricity carbon sequestration projects. It analyzes the various costs and benefits of electricity carbon emission reduction and electricity carbon sequestration projects from the perspectives of investment, operation, and decommissioning. Based on the cost-benefit analysis results, it calculates the levelized cost per kilowatt-hour (LCOE) of electricity carbon emission reduction and electricity carbon sequestration projects as the expected price for investment decisions. Based on the annual new investment scale and the expected price of investment decisions for projects, calculate the investment incentive intensity required to track the dual-carbon target path; based on the annual new investment scale of power carbon emission reduction and power carbon sequestration projects and the power carbon market price obtained from simulation, calculate the synergistic incentive intensity of the power-carbon market; The deviations in investment incentive intensity and collaborative incentive intensity are calibrated, and the risk costs of over-incentive or under-incentive are determined and quantified based on the calibration results. The risk costs of over-incentive and under-incentive in each year are then added together to obtain the total project incentive risk cost. The supporting effects of the electricity carbon emission reduction target path, the electricity carbon sequestration target path, and the overall dual-carbon target path are assessed based on the total cost of project incentive risk.

2. The method for evaluating the effectiveness of the synergistic support of the electricity-carbon market for a dual-carbon target path according to claim 1, characterized in that, The dual-carbon target path is broken down layer by layer, decoupling the electricity-carbon market synergy support component for carbon emission reduction and the electricity-carbon sequestration component, and clarifying the annual new investment scale of electricity-carbon emission reduction projects and electricity-carbon sequestration projects. Specifically, this includes: setting a dual-carbon target path covering the start and end years (i.e., the year of carbon neutrality achievement), clarifying the annual total carbon emissions and total carbon accumulation; decomposing the total carbon emissions within the assessment period into non-anthropogenic and anthropogenic carbon emissions; further decomposing anthropogenic carbon emissions into non-energy and energy carbon emissions; refining energy carbon emissions into non-electric energy carbon emissions and electricity carbon emissions; based on the decoupled electricity carbon emissions and the set thermal power emission factor, deriving the corresponding thermal power generation path for this electricity carbon emission path; reading the annual total power generation trajectory of this path, calculating the non-fossil energy power generation that meets the power balance requirement, and using this as the electricity carbon emission reduction path to be assessed; based on the electricity carbon emission reduction path, supplementing the capacity allocation and utilization hours of various non-fossil energy sources in power planning, and obtaining the annual wind power installed capacity. Photovoltaic installed capacity Hydropower installed capacity and nuclear power installed capacity The total carbon sequestration during the assessment period is broken down into non-anthropogenic carbon sinks and anthropogenic carbon sinks; anthropogenic carbon sinks are further broken down into technological carbon sinks and natural carbon sinks; technological carbon sinks are further refined into electricity carbon sinks, non-electric energy carbon sinks, and non-energy technological carbon sinks; based on the decoupled electricity carbon sink volume and the set carbon capture rate parameters, the corresponding thermal power CCUS installed capacity is calculated. This will serve as a pathway for increasing carbon sequestration in the power sector to be evaluated.

3. The method for evaluating the effectiveness of the synergistic support of the electricity-carbon market for a dual-carbon target path according to claim 1, characterized in that, This analysis examines the costs and benefits of power generation carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration projects from the perspectives of investment, operation, and decommissioning. It includes: defining cost items for power generation carbon emission reduction projects according to the investment, operation, and decommissioning phases; costs in the investment phase include core equipment costs, engineering construction costs, and other investment costs; costs in the operation phase include operation and maintenance costs, labor costs, and other operating costs; costs in the decommissioning phase include asset disposal costs; defining benefit items for the operation phase of power generation carbon emission reduction projects; benefits in the operation phase include power generation revenue from participating in various temporal and spatial scale electricity markets, ancillary service markets, and green electricity markets; defining cost items for power generation carbon sequestration projects according to the investment, operation, and decommissioning phases; costs in the investment phase include core equipment costs, engineering construction costs, and other investment costs; costs in the operation phase include capture and compression costs, transportation costs, and utilization and storage costs; costs in the decommissioning phase include asset disposal costs; defining benefit items for the operation phase of power generation carbon sequestration projects; benefits in the operation phase include emission cost reduction benefits, industrial carbon dioxide sales revenue, and oil recovery revenue.

4. The method for evaluating the effectiveness of the synergistic support of the electricity-carbon market for a dual-carbon target path according to claim 1, characterized in that, Based on the cost-benefit analysis results, the levelized cost per kilowatt-hour of electricity for power carbon emission reduction projects and power carbon sequestration projects is calculated as the expected price for the investment decision of the projects. Specifically, this includes: setting the discount rate and project lifespan of power carbon reduction projects in accordance with industry benchmarks, and calculating the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) based on the full life-cycle cost in step S21, using this as the expected price for investment decisions that meet the requirements of investment economics. The discount rate and project lifespan of the power carbon sequestration project are set in accordance with industry benchmarks, and the levelized cost per kilowatt-hour is calculated based on the total life-cycle cost, which serves as the expected price for investment decisions that meet the requirements of investment economics. .

5. The method for evaluating the effectiveness of the synergistic support of the electricity-carbon market for a dual-carbon target path according to claim 1, characterized in that, Based on the annual new investment scale and the expected investment decision price of projects, calculate the investment incentive intensity required to track the dual-carbon target path; this includes: calculating the annual new investment scale of power carbon emission reduction projects, based on the output annual non-fossil energy installed capacity, and calculating the difference between the installed capacity of two adjacent years to obtain the first... New wind power installed capacity in 2018 New photovoltaic installed capacity New installed capacity of hydropower and the scale of newly installed nuclear power capacity The annual new investment scale for power carbon sequestration projects is calculated based on the output annual thermal power CCUS installed capacity. This is achieved by calculating the difference between the installed capacity of two adjacent years. New installed capacity of thermal power CCUS in 2018 This calculation determines the investment incentive intensity required to track the carbon emission path in the dual-carbon target pathway. Based on the expected investment decision prices for wind power, solar power, hydropower, and nuclear power, and multiplying each by the corresponding new installed capacity, the investment incentive intensity for wind power, solar power, hydropower, and nuclear power that meets the requirements for tracking the carbon emission reduction pathway in the power industry is obtained, denoted as [missing information]. , , and Calculate the investment incentive intensity required to track the carbon sequestration path in the dual-carbon target pathway. Based on the expected price of thermal power CCUS investment decisions, multiply the corresponding new installed capacity to obtain the thermal power CCUS investment incentive intensity that meets the requirements for tracking the power carbon sequestration path, denoted as . .

6. The method for evaluating the effectiveness of the synergistic support of the electricity-carbon market for a dual-carbon target path according to claim 1, characterized in that, Based on the annual new investment scale of power carbon emission reduction and power carbon sequestration projects and the simulated electricity carbon market price, the synergistic incentive intensity of the electricity-carbon market is calculated. This includes: using the annual installed capacity as input, conducting joint simulations of the electricity market and carbon market to obtain the clearing prices and quantities of the electricity market, ancillary services market, green electricity market, and carbon emission market at different time and space scales; and based on the market clearing results, calculating the levelized revenue per kilowatt-hour obtained by power carbon emission reduction projects. , , , Based on the market clearing results, the reduction in emission costs caused by carbon dioxide capture is calculated. Simultaneously, the revenue from the sale of industrial carbon dioxide and the revenue from oil displacement obtained by the power generation carbon sink project outside the market are defined, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the power generation carbon sink project is calculated. ; Calculate the synergistic incentive intensity provided by the electricity-carbon market to electricity carbon reduction and carbon sink enhancement projects; Based on the newly installed capacity, multiply the corresponding calculation results by the levelized rate of return per kilowatt-hour to obtain the actual incentive intensity obtained by electricity carbon reduction projects and carbon sink enhancement projects participating in the electricity-carbon market. , , , and .

7. The method for evaluating the effectiveness of the synergistic support of the electricity-carbon market for a dual-carbon target path according to claim 1, characterized in that, The deviations in investment incentive intensity and synergistic incentive intensity are calibrated, and the risk costs of over-incentive or under-incentive are determined and quantified based on the calibration results. This includes: calculating the deviation between the required investment incentive intensity and the synergistic incentive intensity of the electricity carbon emission reduction project and the electricity carbon sequestration project throughout their entire life cycle; a deviation greater than 0 is considered under-incentive, and a deviation less than 0 is considered over-incentive; calculating the effectiveness of the electricity-carbon market in supporting the dual-carbon target path; summing the absolute values ​​of the calculated incentive deviations for each project to obtain the risk costs of over- / under-incentive in the electricity carbon market; and evaluating the supporting effects of the electricity carbon emission reduction target path, the electricity carbon sequestration target path, and the overall dual-carbon target path. The lower the risk cost, the better the synergistic incentive effect of the electricity-carbon market, and vice versa.

8. An effectiveness evaluation system for the synergistic support of the electricity-carbon market for a dual-carbon target pathway, characterized in that, include: New investment module: used to obtain dual carbon target path, decompose the dual carbon target path layer by layer, decouple the electricity carbon emission reduction component and the electricity carbon sequestration component supported by the electricity-carbon market synergy, and clarify the annual new investment scale of electricity carbon emission reduction projects and electricity carbon sequestration projects. Investment Decision Expectation Module: This module analyzes the costs and benefits of power carbon emission reduction projects and power carbon sequestration projects from the perspectives of investment, operation, and decommissioning; based on the cost-benefit analysis results, it calculates the levelized cost per kilowatt-hour (LCOE) of power carbon emission reduction projects and power carbon sequestration projects as the expected price for investment decisions of the projects. Investment Incentive Strength Module: Used to calculate the investment incentive strength required to track the dual-carbon target path based on the annual new investment scale and the expected price of investment decisions for projects; Synergistic Incentive Module: Used to calculate the synergistic incentive intensity of the electricity-carbon market based on the annual new investment scale of electricity carbon emission reduction and electricity carbon sequestration projects and the electricity carbon market price obtained through simulation. Calibration module: used to calibrate the deviation of investment incentive intensity and collaborative incentive intensity, and to judge and quantify the risk cost of over-incentive or under-incentive based on the calibration results; The total project incentive risk cost is obtained by summing up the over-incentive risk cost and under-incentive risk cost for each year. The supporting effects of the electricity carbon emission reduction target path, the electricity carbon sequestration target path, and the overall dual-carbon target path are assessed based on the total cost of project incentive risk.

9. The effect evaluation system for the synergistic support of the electricity-carbon market for a dual-carbon target path according to claim 8, characterized in that, The newly added investment module decomposes the dual-carbon target path layer by layer, decoupling the electricity-carbon market synergy support component of electricity carbon emission reduction and electricity carbon sequestration, and clarifying the annual new investment scale of electricity carbon emission reduction projects and electricity carbon sequestration projects. Specifically, this includes: setting a dual-carbon target path covering the start and end years (i.e., the year of carbon neutrality achievement), clarifying the annual total carbon emissions and total carbon accumulation; decomposing the total carbon emissions within the assessment period into non-anthropogenic carbon emissions and anthropogenic carbon emissions; further decomposing anthropogenic carbon emissions into non-energy carbon emissions and energy carbon emissions; refining energy carbon emissions into non-electric energy carbon emissions and electricity carbon emissions; based on the decoupled electricity carbon emissions and the set thermal power emission factor, deriving the thermal power generation path corresponding to this electricity carbon emission path; reading the annual total power generation trajectory of this path, calculating the non-fossil energy power generation that meets the power balance requirement, and using this as the electricity carbon emission reduction path to be assessed; and based on the electricity carbon emission reduction path, supplementing the capacity allocation and utilization hours of various non-fossil energy sources in power planning to obtain the annual wind power installed capacity. Photovoltaic installed capacity Hydropower installed capacity and nuclear power installed capacity The total carbon sequestration during the assessment period is broken down into non-anthropogenic carbon sinks and anthropogenic carbon sinks; anthropogenic carbon sinks are further broken down into technological carbon sinks and natural carbon sinks; technological carbon sinks are further refined into electricity carbon sinks, non-electric energy carbon sinks, and non-energy technological carbon sinks; based on the decoupled electricity carbon sink volume and the set carbon capture rate parameters, the corresponding thermal power CCUS installed capacity is calculated. This will serve as a pathway for increasing carbon sequestration in the power sector to be evaluated.

10. The effect evaluation system for the synergistic support of the electricity-carbon market for a dual-carbon target path according to claim 8, characterized in that, The investment decision-making expectation module analyzes the costs and benefits of power carbon emission reduction projects and power carbon sequestration projects from the perspectives of investment, operation, and decommissioning. This includes: defining the cost items of power carbon emission reduction projects according to the investment, operation, and decommissioning stages; costs in the investment stage include core equipment costs, engineering construction costs, and other investment costs; costs in the operation stage include operation and maintenance costs, labor costs, and other operating costs; costs in the decommissioning stage include asset disposal costs; defining the benefit items of power carbon emission reduction projects in the operation stage; benefits in the operation stage include power generation revenue from participating in various temporal and spatial scale electricity markets, ancillary service markets, and green electricity markets; defining the cost items of power carbon sequestration projects according to the investment, operation, and decommissioning stages; costs in the investment stage include core equipment costs, engineering construction costs, and other investment costs; costs in the operation stage include capture and compression costs, transportation costs, and utilization and storage costs; costs in the decommissioning stage include asset disposal costs; defining the benefit items of power carbon sequestration projects in the operation stage; benefits in the operation stage include emission cost reduction benefits, industrial carbon dioxide sales revenue, and oil displacement revenue.

11. The effect evaluation system for the synergistic support of the electricity-carbon market for a dual-carbon target path according to claim 8, characterized in that, In the investment incentive intensity module, based on the cost-benefit analysis results, the levelized cost per kilowatt-hour of electricity for power carbon emission reduction projects and power carbon sequestration projects is calculated as the expected price for the investment decision of the project. Specifically, this includes: setting the discount rate and project lifespan of power carbon reduction projects in accordance with industry benchmarks, and calculating the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) based on the full life-cycle cost in step S21, using this as the expected price for investment decisions that meet the requirements of investment economics. The discount rate and project lifespan of the power carbon sequestration project are set in accordance with industry benchmarks, and the levelized cost per kilowatt-hour is calculated based on the total life-cycle cost, which serves as the expected price for investment decisions that meet the requirements of investment economics. .

12. The effect evaluation system for the synergistic support of the electricity-carbon market for a dual-carbon target path according to claim 8, characterized in that, The investment incentive intensity module calculates the investment incentive intensity required to track the dual-carbon target path based on the annual new investment scale and the expected investment decision price of the project; this includes: calculating the annual new investment scale of the power carbon emission reduction project, and based on the output annual non-fossil energy installed capacity, calculating the difference between the installed capacity of two adjacent years to obtain the first... New wind power installed capacity in 2018 New photovoltaic installed capacity New installed capacity of hydropower and the scale of newly installed nuclear power capacity The annual new investment scale for power carbon sequestration projects is calculated based on the output annual thermal power CCUS installed capacity. This is achieved by calculating the difference between the installed capacity of two adjacent years. New installed capacity of thermal power CCUS in 2018 This calculation determines the investment incentive intensity required to track the carbon emission path in the dual-carbon target pathway. Based on the expected investment decision prices for wind power, solar power, hydropower, and nuclear power, and multiplying each by the corresponding new installed capacity, the investment incentive intensity for wind power, solar power, hydropower, and nuclear power that meets the requirements for tracking the carbon emission reduction pathway in the power industry is obtained, denoted as [missing information]. , , and Calculate the investment incentive intensity required to track the carbon sequestration path in the dual-carbon target pathway. Based on the expected price of thermal power CCUS investment decisions, multiply the corresponding new installed capacity to obtain the thermal power CCUS investment incentive intensity that meets the requirements for tracking the power carbon sequestration path, denoted as . .

13. The effect evaluation system for the synergistic support of the electricity-carbon market for a dual-carbon target path according to claim 8, characterized in that, In the collaborative incentive module, the intensity of collaborative incentives in the electricity-carbon market is calculated based on the annual new investment scale of electricity carbon emission reduction and electricity carbon sequestration projects and the electricity carbon market price obtained from simulation. This includes: conducting joint simulations of the electricity market and carbon market using the annual installed capacity as input, obtaining the clearing prices and quantities of electricity market, ancillary services market, green electricity market, and carbon emission market at different time and space scales; and calculating the levelized revenue per kilowatt-hour (LQE) obtained by electricity carbon emission reduction projects based on the market clearing results. , , , Based on the market clearing results, the reduction in emission costs caused by carbon dioxide capture is calculated. Simultaneously, the revenue from the sale of industrial carbon dioxide and the revenue from oil displacement obtained by the power generation carbon sink project outside the market are defined, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the power generation carbon sink project is calculated. ; Calculate the synergistic incentive intensity provided by the electricity-carbon market to electricity carbon reduction and carbon sink enhancement projects; Based on the newly installed capacity, multiply the corresponding calculation results by the levelized rate of return per kilowatt-hour to obtain the actual incentive intensity obtained by electricity carbon reduction projects and carbon sink enhancement projects participating in the electricity-carbon market. , , , and .

14. The effect evaluation system for the synergistic support of the electricity-carbon market for a dual-carbon target path according to claim 8, characterized in that, The calibration module calibrates the deviations in investment incentive intensity and synergistic incentive intensity. Based on the calibration results, it determines and quantifies the risk costs of over-incentive or under-incentive. This includes: calculating the deviation between the required investment incentive intensity and the synergistic incentive intensity of the electricity carbon emission reduction project and the electricity carbon sequestration project throughout their entire life cycle; a deviation greater than 0 is considered under-incentive, and a deviation less than 0 is considered over-incentive; calculating the effectiveness of the electricity-carbon market in supporting the dual-carbon target path; and summing the absolute values ​​of the calculated incentive deviations for each project to obtain the risk cost of over- / under-incentive in the electricity carbon market. Based on this, the supporting effect of the electricity carbon emission reduction target path, the electricity carbon sequestration target path, and the overall dual-carbon target path is evaluated. The lower the risk cost, the better the synergistic incentive effect of the electricity-carbon market, and vice versa.

15. An electronic device comprising a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, characterized in that, When the processor executes the program, it implements the method as described in any one of claims 1-7.

16. A computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, characterized in that, When the program is executed by the processor, it implements the method as described in any one of claims 1-7.

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