Method and system for predicting economic service life of pipeline

Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of pipeline integrity management, particularly relates to a method and a system for predicting the economic service life of a pipeline, and aims to solve the problem that part of pipelines cannot be detected or do not have economy in an existing method. The method comprises the following steps: calculating maintenance compensation cost after pipeline failure in the tth year; calculating the pipeline detection and repair cost of the t-th year based on the repair number of the pipeline anti-corrosion layer of the t-th year and the reinforcement number of the pipeline body of the t-th year; calculating the total pipeline maintenance compensation cost of the t-th year based on the maintenance compensation cost after the failure of the pipeline of the t-th year and the pipeline detection and repair cost of the t-th year; calculating the updating and transformation cost of the tth year based on the total updating and transformation cost and the cost conversion period; and constructing a target function based on the total maintenance compensation cost of the pipeline in the t-th year and the updating and reconstruction cost in the t-th year, and determining the service life of the pipeline based on the target function. The residual life of the long-term service pipeline is scientifically evaluated, and the problem that the long-term service pipeline does not need to be replaced is solved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention belongs to the field of pipeline integrity management, and specifically relates to a method and system for predicting the economic service life of pipelines. Background Technology

[0002] During operation, pipelines inevitably experience failures and leaks due to various factors, including internal and external corrosive environments. This is especially true for long-term pipelines, where failures become more frequent with increasing service life. The repair / replacement costs resulting from pipeline failure place a heavy burden on pipeline operators. Furthermore, operators must also pay for costs related to leak pollution, emergency repairs, and environmental remediation, which can sometimes exceed the repair costs. Given that repairing / replacing long-term pipelines typically requires substantial budgets and significant time, there is an urgent need to find a scientific procedure or method to assess the remaining life of long-term pipelines, addressing the questions of whether and when to replace them. Residual strength evaluation and corrosion prediction techniques are commonly used to determine the remaining physical life of pipelines. This method generally relies on internal inspection to obtain wall thickness data along the pipeline route and combines this with corrosion prediction models to predict future defect variations, ultimately using residual strength evaluation techniques to determine the remaining physical life of the pipeline. First, due to limitations in testing technology and the condition of the pipelines themselves, some pipelines cannot be internally inspected, thus making it impossible to assess the remaining physical life of the pipelines. Second, according to the relevant theories of pipeline integrity management, pipelines implementing integrity management can theoretically extend their service life indefinitely, but their maintenance investment may become unacceptable, and continued operation of the pipelines is no longer economical.

[0003] Therefore, existing pipeline life prediction methods have problems such as some pipelines being unable to be inspected or being uneconomical. Summary of the Invention

[0004] To address the aforementioned problems in existing technologies, namely that current pipeline life prediction methods may not be feasible for inspecting certain pipelines or may lack economic viability, this invention provides a method for predicting the economical service life of pipelines. The method includes:

[0005] Calculate the repair and compensation costs after a pipeline failure in year t based on the number of pipeline failures in year t.

[0006] Calculate the number of pipeline anti-corrosion layer repairs in year t based on the pipeline anti-corrosion layer repair ratio; calculate the number of pipeline body reinforcements in year t based on the pipeline body reinforcement ratio;

[0007] Calculate the pipeline inspection and repair cost in year t based on the number of pipeline anti-corrosion layer repairs and the number of pipeline body reinforcements in year t.

[0008] Calculate the total pipeline repair compensation cost for year t based on the pipeline failure compensation cost and the pipeline inspection and repair cost for year t.

[0009] Calculate the renovation and upgrading cost in year t based on the total renovation and upgrading cost and the cost depreciation period;

[0010] An objective function is constructed based on the total pipeline maintenance compensation cost in year t and the renovation and upgrading cost in year t, and the pipeline lifespan is determined based on the objective function.

[0011] In a preferred embodiment, the method for calculating the repair compensation cost after pipeline failure in year t is as follows: M1(t) = n1 * F r (t);

[0012] Among them, M1(t) represents the repair compensation cost after the pipeline failure in year t, and F... r (t) represents the number of pipeline failures in year t, and n1 represents the repair compensation cost for each failure.

[0013] In a preferred embodiment, the method for calculating the number of pipeline anti-corrosion layer repairs in year t is as follows: C1(t) = ρ * L * R1;

[0014] Where L is the pipeline length, ρ is the density of damage points, R1 is the pipeline anti-corrosion layer repair ratio, and C1(t) is the number of pipeline anti-corrosion layer repairs in year t.

[0015] In a preferred embodiment, the method for calculating the number of pipeline reinforcements in year t is as follows: C2(t) = ρ * L * R2;

[0016] Where L is the pipe length, ρ is the density of damaged points, R2 is the pipe reinforcement ratio, and C2(t) is the number of pipe reinforcements in year t.

[0017] In a preferred embodiment, the method for calculating the pipeline inspection and repair cost in year t is as follows: M2(t)=(n2*L+C1(t)*n3+C2(t)*n4) / n5;

[0018] Where M2(t) is the pipeline inspection and repair cost in year t, L is the pipeline length, n2 is the inspection cost per unit pipeline length, n3 is the repair cost per anti-corrosion layer, n4 is the cost per body reinforcement, and n5 is the inspection and repair cycle.

[0019] In a preferred embodiment, the method for calculating the total pipeline maintenance compensation cost in year t is as follows: M(t) = M1(t) + M2(t);

[0020] Where M(t) represents the total pipeline maintenance compensation cost in year t.

[0021] In a preferred embodiment, the method for calculating the renovation and upgrading costs in year t is as follows: W(t) = W / n;

[0022] Where W(t) is the renovation and upgrading cost in year t, W is the renovation and upgrading cost, and n is the cost conversion period.

[0023] In a preferred embodiment, the objective function is: f(t) = M(t) - W(t);

[0024] Where f(t) is the objective function.

[0025] In a preferred embodiment, the method for determining the pipeline life based on the objective function is as follows:

[0026] When f(t) = 0, initiate a project to replace the pipeline;

[0027] If f(t) > 0, replace the tube immediately.

[0028] When f(t) < 0, the pipeline life is extended.

[0029] A second aspect of the present invention provides a prediction system for the economic service life of pipelines, the system comprising:

[0030] The first calculation module is used to calculate the repair compensation cost after the pipeline failure in year t based on the number of pipeline failures in year t.

[0031] The second calculation module is used to calculate the number of pipeline anti-corrosion layer repairs in year t based on the pipeline anti-corrosion layer repair ratio; and to calculate the number of pipeline body reinforcements in year t based on the pipeline body reinforcement ratio.

[0032] The third calculation module is used to calculate the pipeline inspection and repair cost in year t based on the number of pipeline anti-corrosion layer repairs and the number of pipeline body reinforcements in year t.

[0033] The total cost determination module is used to calculate the total pipeline repair compensation cost in year t based on the pipeline failure repair compensation cost in year t and the pipeline inspection and repair cost in year t.

[0034] The renovation cost determination module is used to calculate the renovation cost in year t based on the total renovation cost and the cost depreciation period.

[0035] The lifespan determination module is used to construct an objective function based on the total pipeline maintenance compensation cost in year t and the renovation and upgrading cost in year t, and to determine the pipeline's lifespan based on the objective function.

[0036] The beneficial effects of this invention are:

[0037] (1) Starting from the economically optimal replacement time, this invention uses the differential dynamic analysis method to compare the annual maintenance compensation cost of the pipeline continuing to serve with the annual amortized cost of pipeline renovation and upgrading. When the annual maintenance compensation cost of the pipeline is greater than the amortized cost of pipeline renovation and upgrading at a certain moment, it is recommended to carry out pipeline renovation and upgrading at this time.

[0038] (2) The present invention adopts a scientific prediction method to determine the economic service life of pipelines, and quantitatively predicts the replacement time of pipelines, providing an analytical basis for pipeline management decision-makers to optimize the use of pipelines.

[0039] (3) This invention scientifically assesses the remaining lifespan of long-term service pipelines, solving the problems of whether long-term service pipelines need to be replaced and when to replace them. Attached Figure Description

[0040] Other features, objects, and advantages of this application will become more apparent from the following detailed description of non-limiting embodiments with reference to the accompanying drawings:

[0041] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of a method for predicting the economic service life of a pipeline according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0042] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of a method for predicting the economic service life of a pipeline according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0043] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of a computer system used to implement the methods, systems, and devices of this application. Detailed Implementation

[0044] The present application will now be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to limit the invention. Furthermore, it should be noted that, for ease of description, only the parts relevant to the invention are shown in the accompanying drawings.

[0045] It should be noted that, unless otherwise specified, the embodiments and features described in this application can be combined with each other. This application will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0046] This invention provides a method for predicting the economic service life of pipelines, the method comprising:

[0047] Calculate the repair and compensation costs after a pipeline failure in year t based on the number of pipeline failures in year t.

[0048] Calculate the number of pipeline anti-corrosion layer repairs in year t based on the pipeline anti-corrosion layer repair ratio; calculate the number of pipeline body reinforcements in year t based on the pipeline body reinforcement ratio;

[0049] Calculate the pipeline inspection and repair cost in year t based on the number of pipeline anti-corrosion layer repairs and the number of pipeline body reinforcements in year t.

[0050] Calculate the total pipeline repair compensation cost for year t based on the pipeline failure compensation cost and the pipeline inspection and repair cost for year t.

[0051] Calculate the renovation and upgrading cost in year t based on the total renovation and upgrading cost and the cost depreciation period;

[0052] An objective function is constructed based on the total pipeline maintenance compensation cost in year t and the renovation and upgrading cost in year t, and the pipeline lifespan is determined based on the objective function.

[0053] To more clearly explain the method for predicting the economic service life of pipelines according to the present invention, the following is in conjunction with... Figure 1 The steps in the embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below.

[0054] The method for predicting the economic service life of pipelines according to the first embodiment of the present invention is described in detail below:

[0055] Calculate the repair and compensation costs after a pipeline failure in year t based on the number of pipeline failures in year t.

[0056] In this embodiment, the method for calculating the repair compensation cost after pipeline failure in year t is as follows: M1(t) = n1 * F r (t);

[0057] Among them, M1(t) represents the repair compensation cost after the pipeline failure in year t, and F... r (t) represents the number of pipeline failures in year t, and n1 represents the repair compensation cost for each failure.

[0058] Calculate the number of pipeline anti-corrosion layer repairs in year t based on the pipeline anti-corrosion layer repair ratio; calculate the number of pipeline body reinforcements in year t based on the pipeline body reinforcement ratio;

[0059] In this embodiment, the method for calculating the number of pipeline anti-corrosion layer repairs in year t is as follows: C1(t) = ρ * L * R1;

[0060] Where L is the pipeline length, ρ is the density of damage points, R1 is the pipeline anti-corrosion layer repair ratio, and C1(t) is the number of pipeline anti-corrosion layer repairs in year t.

[0061] In this embodiment, the method for calculating the number of pipeline reinforcements in year t is as follows: C2(t) = ρ * L * R2;

[0062] Where L is the pipe length, ρ is the density of damaged points, R2 is the pipe reinforcement ratio, and C2(t) is the number of pipe reinforcements in year t.

[0063] Calculate the pipeline inspection and repair cost in year t based on the number of pipeline anti-corrosion layer repairs and the number of pipeline body reinforcements in year t.

[0064] In this embodiment, the method for calculating the pipeline inspection and repair cost in year t is as follows: M2(t)=(n2*L+C1(t)*n3+C2(t)*n4) / n5;

[0065] Where M2(t) is the pipeline inspection and repair cost in year t, L is the pipeline length, n2 is the inspection cost per unit pipeline length, n3 is the repair cost per anti-corrosion layer, n4 is the cost per body reinforcement, and n5 is the inspection and repair cycle.

[0066] Calculate the total pipeline repair compensation cost for year t based on the pipeline failure compensation cost and the pipeline inspection and repair cost for year t.

[0067] In this embodiment, the method for calculating the total pipeline maintenance compensation cost in year t is as follows: M(t) = M1(t) + M2(t);

[0068] Where M(t) represents the total pipeline maintenance compensation cost in year t.

[0069] Calculate the renovation and upgrading cost in year t based on the total renovation and upgrading cost and the cost depreciation period;

[0070] In this embodiment, the method for calculating the renovation and upgrading costs in year t is as follows: W(t) = W / n;

[0071] Where W(t) is the renovation and upgrading cost in year t, W is the renovation and upgrading cost, and n is the cost conversion period.

[0072] An objective function is constructed based on the total pipeline maintenance compensation cost in year t and the renovation and upgrading cost in year t, and the pipeline lifespan is determined based on the objective function.

[0073] In this embodiment, the objective function is: f(t) = M(t) - W(t);

[0074] Where f(t) is the objective function.

[0075] The method for determining the pipeline life based on the objective function is as follows:

[0076] When f(t) = 0, the pipeline replacement project should be initiated; when f(t) = 0, the annual maintenance compensation cost of the pipeline is equal to the annual amortized cost of pipeline renovation and upgrading. At this time, the economic cost-benefit of the pipeline is in a balanced state, and it is recommended to initiate the replacement project.

[0077] When f(t) > 0, replace the pipe immediately; when f(t) > 0, meaning the annual maintenance compensation cost of the pipeline is greater than the annual amortized cost of pipeline renovation, it is not economically viable for the pipeline to continue to serve, and the pipe should be replaced immediately based on the actual situation.

[0078] When f(t) < 0, the pipeline lifespan should be extended. If f(t) < 0, meaning the annual maintenance compensation cost of the pipeline is less than the annual amortized cost of pipeline renovation and upgrading, then continued inspection and repair should be carried out to extend the pipeline lifespan, and renovation should not be considered at this time.

[0079] The following example further illustrates how this method can be used to address the question of whether and when to replace long-serving pipelines. The specific process is as follows: Figure 2 As shown, the specific implementation method is as follows:

[0080] An oil gathering pipeline has a diameter of φ159mm, a wall thickness of 6mm, a length of 10km, and a service life of 8 years. It is a long-term pipeline, but in recent years the pipeline has frequently leaked and failed.

[0081] (1) Calculate the annual maintenance compensation cost of the pipeline;

[0082] First, calculate the repair compensation cost M1(t) after the pipeline fails in year t;

[0083] The number of pipeline failures, Fr(t), in the next few years is determined using methods such as grey system prediction models or artificial neural networks. The repair compensation cost, M1(t), is calculated based on a unit price of n1 = 50,000 yuan / failure. Table 1 shows the repair compensation cost M1(t) after pipeline failure in year t. Table 1

[0084] Then calculate the pipeline inspection and repair cost M2(t) in year t;

[0085] The pipeline inspection fee is calculated at 0.4 million yuan / km, and the inspection frequency is calculated as once every three years. The cost of each pipeline inspection is 40,000 yuan, and the annual amortized cost is 13,300 yuan.

[0086] The cost of pipeline repair is determined based on the number of anti-corrosion layer repairs and the number of pipeline body reinforcements. The number of anti-corrosion layer repairs is C1(t) and the number of pipeline body reinforcements is C2(t). C1(t) and C2(t) are determined according to the relevant formula in 5.1 and the table below. The cost of anti-corrosion layer repair is 0.5 million yuan / site, and the cost of body reinforcement is 1.0 million yuan / site. The repair frequency is calculated once every three years and amortized annually. As shown in Table 2, it is a statistical table of the density of damage points of the external anti-corrosion layer. Table 2

[0087] The pipeline inspection and repair cost M2(t) in year t is the sum of pipeline inspection cost and repair cost, and is amortized according to the inspection and repair frequency over 3 years. The calculation table of pipeline inspection and repair cost M2(t) in year t is shown in Table 3 below. Table 3

[0088] Then calculate the total pipeline maintenance compensation cost M(t) in year t;

[0089] The total pipeline repair compensation cost M1(t) after pipeline failure in year t is obtained by summing the pipeline inspection and repair cost M2(t), as shown in Table 4 below. Table 4

[0090] Then calculate the annual amortized cost W(t) for pipeline renovation and upgrading;

[0091] Based on the pipeline specifications in the embodiment, the cost W for pipeline renovation and upgrading is determined. In this embodiment, according to the unit price table for pipeline renovation and upgrading in Table 2-1, W = 720,000 yuan, and therefore W(t) = W / 12 = 60,000 yuan. The annual amortized cost W(t) for pipeline renovation and upgrading is calculated as shown in Table 5.

[0092] Table 5

[0093] Finally, the economic service life of the pipeline is calculated.

[0094] Based on the constructed objective function f(t) = M(t) - W(t), we solve for f(t). The results of the objective function f(t) calculation are detailed in Table 6 below: Table 6

[0095] Based on the calculation results, the pipeline's f(t) will be less than 0 for the next two years, during which time the pipeline can continue to operate without considering replacement. When the pipeline reaches its third year of operation, f(t) will be greater than 0, making continued operation less economical, and replacement is recommended. The unit price table for pipeline replacement is shown in Table 7. Table 7 Pipe Specifications Unit price (ten thousand yuan / km) φ76×4 24 φ89×4 26 φ114×5 34 φ159×6 48 φ219×7 66 φ273×7 84 φ325×7 104

[0096] Although the steps in the above embodiments are described in the above order, those skilled in the art will understand that in order to achieve the effect of this embodiment, different steps do not need to be executed in such order. They can be executed simultaneously (in parallel) or in reverse order. These simple variations are all within the protection scope of this invention.

[0097] The second embodiment of the pipeline economic service life prediction system of the present invention includes:

[0098] The first calculation module is used to calculate the repair compensation cost after the pipeline failure in year t based on the number of pipeline failures in year t.

[0099] The second calculation module is used to calculate the number of pipeline anti-corrosion layer repairs in year t based on the pipeline anti-corrosion layer repair ratio; and to calculate the number of pipeline body reinforcements in year t based on the pipeline body reinforcement ratio.

[0100] The third calculation module is used to calculate the pipeline inspection and repair cost in year t based on the number of pipeline anti-corrosion layer repairs and the number of pipeline body reinforcements in year t.

[0101] The total cost determination module is used to calculate the total pipeline repair compensation cost in year t based on the pipeline failure repair compensation cost in year t and the pipeline inspection and repair cost in year t.

[0102] The renovation cost determination module is used to calculate the renovation cost in year t based on the total renovation cost and the cost depreciation period.

[0103] The lifespan determination module is used to construct an objective function based on the total pipeline maintenance compensation cost in year t and the renovation and upgrading cost in year t, and to determine the pipeline's lifespan based on the objective function.

[0104] Those skilled in the art will understand that, for the sake of convenience and brevity, the specific working process and related descriptions of the system described above can be found in the corresponding processes in the foregoing method embodiments, and will not be repeated here.

[0105] It should be noted that the pipeline economic service life prediction system provided in the above embodiments is only an example of the division of the above functional modules. In practical applications, the above functions can be assigned to different functional modules as needed, that is, the modules or steps in the embodiments of the present invention can be further decomposed or combined. For example, the modules in the above embodiments can be merged into one module, or further divided into multiple sub-modules to complete all or part of the functions described above. The names of the modules and steps involved in the embodiments of the present invention are only for distinguishing the various modules or steps and are not considered as an improper limitation of the present invention.

[0106] An electronic device according to a third embodiment of the present invention includes:

[0107] At least one processor; and

[0108] A memory communicatively connected to at least one of the processors; wherein,

[0109] The memory stores instructions that can be executed by the processor to implement the aforementioned method for predicting the economic service life of pipelines.

[0110] A computer-readable storage medium according to a fourth embodiment of the present invention stores computer instructions for execution by a computer to implement the above-described method for predicting the economic service life of pipelines.

[0111] Those skilled in the art will understand that, for the sake of convenience and brevity, the specific working process and related descriptions of the electronic devices and storage media described above can be referred to the corresponding processes in the foregoing method embodiments, and will not be repeated here.

[0112] Those skilled in the art will recognize that the modules and method steps of the various examples described in conjunction with the embodiments disclosed herein can be implemented in electronic hardware, computer software, or a combination of both. The programs corresponding to the software modules and method steps can be placed in random access memory (RAM), main memory, read-only memory (ROM), electrically programmable ROM, electrically erasable programmable ROM, registers, hard disks, removable disks, CD-ROMs, or any other form of storage medium known in the art. To clearly illustrate the interchangeability of electronic hardware and software, the components and steps of the various examples have been generally described in terms of functionality in the foregoing description. Whether these functions are implemented in electronic hardware or software depends on the specific application and design constraints of the technical solution. Those skilled in the art can use different methods to implement the described functions for each specific application, but such implementation should not be considered beyond the scope of the invention.

[0113] The following is for reference. Figure 3 It shows a schematic diagram of the structure of a computer system for implementing the methods, systems, and devices of this application. Figure 3 The server shown is merely an example and should not impose any limitations on the functionality and scope of use of the embodiments of this application.

[0114] like Figure 3 As shown, the computer system includes a Central Processing Unit (CPU) 601, which can perform various appropriate actions and processes based on programs stored in Read Only Memory (ROM) 602 or programs loaded from storage section 608 into Random Access Memory (RAM) 603. The RAM 603 also stores various programs and data required for system operation. The CPU 601, ROM 602, and RAM 603 are interconnected via a bus 604. An Input / Output (I / O) interface 605 is also connected to the bus 604.

[0115] The following components are connected to I / O interface 605: an input section 606 including a keyboard, mouse, etc.; an output section 607 including a cathode ray tube (CRT), liquid crystal display (LCD), etc., and speakers, etc.; a storage section 608 including a hard disk, etc.; and a communication section 609 including a network interface card such as a LAN (Local Area Network) card, modem, etc. The communication section 609 performs communication processing via a network such as the Internet. A drive 610 is also connected to I / O interface 605 as needed. A removable medium 611, such as a disk, optical disk, magneto-optical disk, semiconductor memory, etc., is installed on drive 610 as needed so that computer programs read from it can be installed into storage section 608 as needed.

[0116] Specifically, according to embodiments of this disclosure, the processes described above with reference to the flowcharts can be implemented as computer software programs. For example, embodiments of this disclosure include a computer program product comprising a computer program carried on a computer-readable medium, the computer program containing program code for performing the methods shown in the flowcharts. In such embodiments, the computer program can be downloaded and installed from a network via communication section 609, and / or installed from removable medium 611. When the computer program is executed by central processing unit (CPU) 601, it performs the functions defined in the methods of this application. It should be noted that the computer-readable medium described above in this application can be a computer-readable signal medium or a computer-readable storage medium, or any combination of the two. A computer-readable storage medium can be, for example,—but not limited to—an electrical, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor system, apparatus, or device, or any combination thereof. More specific examples of computer-readable storage media may include, but are not limited to: electrical connections having one or more wires, portable computer disks, hard disks, random access memory (RAM), read-only memory (ROM), erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), optical fiber, portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), optical storage devices, magnetic storage devices, or any suitable combination thereof. In this application, a computer-readable storage medium can be any tangible medium containing or storing a program that can be used by or in connection with an instruction execution system, apparatus, or device. In this application, a computer-readable signal medium may include a data signal propagated in baseband or as part of a carrier wave, carrying computer-readable program code. Such propagated data signals can take various forms, including but not limited to electromagnetic signals, optical signals, or any suitable combination thereof. A computer-readable signal medium can also be any computer-readable medium other than a computer-readable storage medium, which can send, propagate, or transmit a program for use by or in connection with an instruction execution system, apparatus, or device. The program code contained on a computer-readable medium can be transmitted using any suitable medium, including but not limited to: wireless, wire, optical fiber, RF, etc., or any suitable combination thereof.

[0117] Computer program code for performing the operations of this application can be written in one or more programming languages ​​or a combination thereof, including object-oriented programming languages ​​such as Java, Smalltalk, and C++, and conventional procedural programming languages ​​such as the "C" language or similar programming languages. The program code can be executed entirely on the user's computer, partially on the user's computer, as a standalone software package, partially on the user's computer and partially on a remote computer, or entirely on a remote computer or server. In cases involving remote computers, the remote computer can be connected to the user's computer via any type of network—including a local area network (LAN) or a wide area network (WAN)—or can be connected to an external computer (e.g., via the Internet using an Internet service provider).

[0118] The flowcharts and block diagrams in the accompanying drawings illustrate the architecture, functionality, and operation of possible implementations of systems, methods, and computer program products according to various embodiments of this application. In this regard, each block in a flowchart or block diagram may represent a module, segment, or portion of code containing one or more executable instructions for implementing a specified logical function. It should also be noted that in some alternative implementations, the functions indicated in the blocks may occur in a different order than those indicated in the drawings. For example, two consecutively indicated blocks may actually be executed substantially in parallel, and they may sometimes be executed in reverse order, depending on the functions involved. It should also be noted that each block in the block diagrams and / or flowcharts, and combinations of blocks in the block diagrams and / or flowcharts, can be implemented using a dedicated hardware-based system that performs the specified function or operation, or using a combination of dedicated hardware and computer instructions.

[0119] The terms “first”, “second”, etc., are used to distinguish similar objects, not to describe or indicate a specific order or sequence.

[0120] The term "comprising" or any other similar term is intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus / device that comprises a list of elements includes not only those elements but also other elements not expressly listed, or elements inherent in such process, method, article, or apparatus / device.

[0121] The technical solution of the present invention has been described above with reference to the preferred embodiments shown in the accompanying drawings. However, it will be readily understood by those skilled in the art that the scope of protection of the present invention is obviously not limited to these specific embodiments. Without departing from the principles of the present invention, those skilled in the art can make equivalent changes or substitutions to the relevant technical features, and the technical solutions after these changes or substitutions will all fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the economic service life of a pipeline, characterized in that, The method includes: Calculate the repair and compensation costs after a pipeline failure in year t based on the number of pipeline failures in year t. Calculate the number of pipeline anti-corrosion layer repairs in year t based on the pipeline anti-corrosion layer repair ratio; Calculate the amount of pipeline reinforcement required in year t based on the pipeline reinforcement ratio. Calculate the pipeline inspection and repair cost in year t based on the number of pipeline anti-corrosion layer repairs and the number of pipeline body reinforcements in year t. Calculate the total pipeline repair compensation cost for year t based on the pipeline failure compensation cost and the pipeline inspection and repair cost for year t. Calculate the renovation and upgrading cost in year t based on the total renovation and upgrading cost and the cost depreciation period; An objective function is constructed based on the total pipeline maintenance compensation cost in year t and the renovation and upgrading cost in year t, and the pipeline lifespan is determined based on the objective function.

2. The method for predicting the economic service life of pipelines according to claim 1, characterized in that, The method for calculating the repair and compensation costs after pipeline failure in year t is as follows: M1(t)=n1*F r (t); Among them, M1(t) represents the repair compensation cost after the pipeline failure in year t, and F... r (t) represents the number of pipeline failures in year t, and n1 represents the repair compensation cost for each failure.

3. The method for predicting the economic service life of pipelines according to claim 2, characterized in that, The method for calculating the number of pipeline anti-corrosion layer repairs in year t is as follows: C1(t) = ρ * L * R1; Where L is the pipeline length, ρ is the density of damage points, R1 is the pipeline anti-corrosion layer repair ratio, and C1(t) is the number of pipeline anti-corrosion layer repairs in year t.

4. The method for predicting the economic service life of pipelines according to claim 3, characterized in that, The method for calculating the amount of pipeline reinforcement required in year t is as follows: C2(t) = ρ * L * R2; Where L is the pipe length, ρ is the density of damaged points, R2 is the pipe reinforcement ratio, and C2(t) is the number of pipe reinforcements in year t.

5. The method for predicting the economic service life of pipelines according to claim 4, characterized in that, The method for calculating the pipeline inspection and repair cost in year t is as follows: M2(t)=(n2*L+C1(t)*n3+C2(t)*n4) / n5; Where M2(t) is the pipeline inspection and repair cost in year t, L is the pipeline length, n2 is the inspection cost per unit pipeline length, n3 is the repair cost per anti-corrosion layer, n4 is the cost per body reinforcement, and n5 is the inspection and repair cycle.

6. The method for predicting the economic service life of pipelines according to claim 5, characterized in that, The method for calculating the total pipeline maintenance compensation cost in year t is as follows: M(t) = M1(t) + M2(t); Where M(t) represents the total pipeline maintenance compensation cost in year t.

7. The method for predicting the economic service life of pipelines according to claim 6, characterized in that, The method for calculating the renovation and upgrading costs in year t is as follows: W(t) = W / n; Where W(t) is the renovation and upgrading cost in year t, W is the renovation and upgrading cost, and n is the cost conversion period.

8. The method for predicting the economic service life of pipelines according to claim 7, characterized in that, The objective function is: f(t) = M(t) - W(t); Where f(t) is the objective function.

9. The method for predicting the economic service life of pipelines according to claim 8, characterized in that, The method for determining the pipeline life based on the objective function is as follows: When f(t) = 0, initiate a project to replace the pipeline; If f(t) > 0, replace the tube immediately. When f(t) < 0, the pipeline life is extended.

10. A prediction system for the economic service life of pipelines, characterized in that, The system includes: The first calculation module is used to calculate the repair compensation cost after the pipeline failure in year t based on the number of pipeline failures in year t. The second calculation module is used to calculate the number of pipeline anti-corrosion layer repairs in year t based on the pipeline anti-corrosion layer repair ratio. Calculate the amount of pipeline reinforcement required in year t based on the pipeline reinforcement ratio. The third calculation module is used to calculate the pipeline inspection and repair cost in year t based on the number of pipeline anti-corrosion layer repairs and the number of pipeline body reinforcements in year t. The total cost determination module is used to calculate the total pipeline repair compensation cost in year t based on the pipeline failure repair compensation cost in year t and the pipeline inspection and repair cost in year t. The renovation cost determination module is used to calculate the renovation cost in year t based on the total renovation cost and the cost depreciation period. The lifespan determination module is used to construct an objective function based on the total pipeline maintenance compensation cost in year t and the renovation and upgrading cost in year t, and to determine the pipeline's lifespan based on the objective function.

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