Method for determining capacity credibility of energy storage equipment in power distribution network and electronic equipment

Abstract

The invention discloses a capacity credibility determination method for energy storage equipment in a power distribution network and electronic equipment. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring a power supply reliability score of a first power distribution network; based on the power supply reliability score of the first power distribution network, determining a first credible capacity of a second power distribution network, the second power distribution network being a power distribution network after a distributed power supply is connected to the first power distribution network; based on the power supply reliability score of the first power distribution network, a second credible capacity of a third power distribution network is determined, and the third power distribution network is a power distribution network after the second power distribution network is connected to the energy storage device; and determining the capacity credibility of the energy storage equipment based on the first credible capacity and the second credible capacity. The technical problem that the accuracy of evaluating the actual contribution of the energy storage equipment in the power distribution network is insufficient due to the fact that the independent contribution of the energy storage equipment cannot be effectively distinguished in related technologies is solved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of power system technology, and more specifically, to a method and electronic device for determining the capacity reliability of energy storage devices in a distribution network. Background Technology

[0002] Distributed generation of renewable resources such as wind and solar power has experienced rapid development due to its cleanliness, flexibility, and local consumption characteristics. However, the inherent intermittency and volatility of these resources pose challenges to the stable operation of the power system, particularly in areas such as power balance, grid frequency stability, and preventing unit overload. To address this challenge, new renewable energy projects must be equipped with a certain proportion of energy storage devices to leverage the peak-shaving and valley-filling functions of energy storage and mitigate the fluctuations in renewable energy, thereby enhancing the controllability of new energy sources and the grid's ability to absorb them. The coordinated integration of distributed power sources and energy storage devices into the distribution network not only reduces the need for long-distance transmission facilities, lowers grid expansion costs and operating losses, but also forms islands during distribution network failures, providing uninterrupted power supply to critical loads and significantly improving power supply reliability. When assessing the capacity contribution of distributed power sources and energy storage devices to the distribution network, their actual reliable capacity becomes the focus, as it reflects the equivalent capacity of conventional generating units that these devices can replace at the same level of power supply reliability. The uncertainty of renewable energy output means that its installed capacity cannot always be converted into reliable power output. Therefore, accurately assessing its reliable capacity becomes a key issue in grid planning, dispatching, and investment decisions. The significant shortcomings of related technologies in terms of the actual contribution of energy storage devices to distribution networks are mainly reflected in the following aspects:

[0003] On the one hand, methods in related technologies, such as the load curve method, do not rely on reliability criteria but instead provide approximate results through simplification or assumptions. On the other hand, while methods based on the principle of equal reliability are more accurate, effectively calculating the time-series operating characteristics of energy storage devices, random failures of system components, and the volatility and uncertainty of renewable energy remains an unresolved issue in practical implementation. Furthermore, it is often difficult to accurately isolate the net contribution of energy storage devices to improving power supply reliability during the evaluation process, especially in scenarios involving collaboration with distributed power sources. When faced with the complex role of energy storage devices in the distribution network, the methods in related technologies fail to effectively distinguish the independent contributions of energy storage devices, resulting in insufficient accuracy in assessing their actual contribution to the distribution network.

[0004] There is currently no effective solution to the above problems. Summary of the Invention

[0005] This invention provides a method and electronic device for determining the capacity reliability of energy storage devices in a distribution network, in order to at least solve the technical problem that the accuracy of assessing the actual contribution of energy storage devices in the distribution network is insufficient due to the failure of related technologies to effectively distinguish the independent contribution of energy storage devices.

[0006] According to one aspect of the present invention, a method for determining the capacity reliability of an energy storage device in a distribution network is provided, comprising: obtaining a power supply reliability score of a first distribution network, wherein the power supply reliability score is used to quantify the reliability level of continuous power supply of the first distribution network within a predetermined evaluation period; determining a first reliable capacity of a second distribution network based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network, wherein the second distribution network is a distribution network after a distributed power source is connected to the first distribution network, and the first reliable capacity is used to quantify the actual contribution of the distributed power source to the power supply reliability of the first distribution network; determining a second reliable capacity of a third distribution network based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network, wherein the third distribution network is a distribution network after an energy storage device is connected to the second distribution network, and the second reliable capacity is used to quantify the actual contribution of the distributed power source and the energy storage device to the power supply reliability of the first distribution network; and determining the capacity reliability of the energy storage device based on the first reliable capacity and the second reliable capacity, wherein the capacity reliability is used to quantify the degree to which the energy storage device serves as a reliable power supply source in the first distribution network.

[0007] According to another aspect of the present invention, a capacity reliability determination device for an energy storage device in a distribution network is also provided, comprising: a power supply reliability score acquisition module for a first distribution network, configured to acquire a power supply reliability score of the first distribution network, wherein the power supply reliability score is used to quantify the reliability level of the first distribution network in providing continuous power supply within a predetermined evaluation period; a first reliable capacity determination module, configured to determine a first reliable capacity of a second distribution network based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network, wherein the second distribution network is a distribution network after a distributed power source is connected to the first distribution network, and the first reliable capacity is used to quantify the actual contribution of the distributed power source to the power supply reliability of the first distribution network; a second reliable capacity determination module, configured to determine a second reliable capacity of a third distribution network based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network, wherein the third distribution network is a distribution network after an energy storage device is connected to the second distribution network, and the second reliable capacity is used to quantify the actual contribution of the distributed power source and the energy storage device to the power supply reliability of the first distribution network; and a capacity reliability determination module, configured to determine the capacity reliability of the energy storage device based on the first reliable capacity and the second reliable capacity, wherein the capacity reliability is used to quantify the degree to which the energy storage device serves as a reliable power supply source in the first distribution network.

[0008] According to another aspect of the present invention, a non-volatile storage medium is also provided, the non-volatile storage medium storing a plurality of instructions, the instructions being adapted to be loaded by a processor and executed by any one of the methods for determining the capacity reliability of energy storage devices in a distribution network.

[0009] According to another aspect of the present invention, an electronic device is also provided, including one or more processors and a memory, the memory being used to store one or more programs, wherein when the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the one or more processors cause the one or more processors to implement the capacity reliability determination method for energy storage devices in a distribution network as described in any one of the present invention.

[0010] According to another aspect of the present invention, a computer program product is also provided, including a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method for determining the capacity reliability of energy storage devices in a distribution network as described in any one of the present invention.

[0011] In this embodiment of the invention, a power supply reliability score of a first distribution network is obtained, wherein the power supply reliability score is used to quantify the reliability level of the first distribution network's continuous power supply within a predetermined evaluation period; based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network, a first credible capacity of a second distribution network is determined, wherein the second distribution network is the distribution network after the integration of distributed power sources into the first distribution network, and the first credible capacity is used to quantify the actual contribution of distributed power sources to the power supply reliability of the first distribution network; based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network, a second credible capacity of a third distribution network is determined, wherein the third distribution network is the distribution network after the integration of energy storage devices into the second distribution network, and the second credible capacity is used to quantify the contribution of distributed power sources and energy storage devices to the power supply reliability of the first distribution network. The actual contribution of the first distribution network to the power supply reliability is determined; based on the first reliable capacity and the second reliable capacity, the capacity reliability of the energy storage device is determined. The capacity reliability is used to quantify the degree to which the energy storage device serves as a reliable power supply source in the first distribution network. This achieves the goal of quantifying the power supply reliability and reliable capacity by considering the distribution network conditions before and after the access of distributed power sources and the further access of energy storage devices, thereby determining the capacity reliability of the energy storage device. This achieves the technical effect of improving the accuracy of assessing the actual contribution of energy storage devices in the distribution network, and solves the technical problem of insufficient accuracy in assessing the actual contribution of energy storage devices in the distribution network caused by the failure of related technologies to effectively distinguish the independent contribution of energy storage devices. Attached Figure Description

[0012] The accompanying drawings, which are included to provide a further understanding of the invention and form part of this application, illustrate exemplary embodiments of the invention and, together with their description, serve to explain the invention and do not constitute an undue limitation thereof. In the drawings:

[0013] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of a method for determining the capacity reliability of energy storage devices in a power distribution network according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0014] Figure 2 This is a flowchart of an optional method for determining the capacity reliability of energy storage devices in a power distribution network according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0015] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of a capacity reliability determination device for energy storage equipment in a power distribution network according to an embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0016] To enable those skilled in the art to better understand the present invention, the technical solutions of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings of the embodiments. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort should fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0017] It should be noted that the terms "first," "second," etc., in the specification, claims, and accompanying drawings of this invention are used to distinguish similar objects and are not necessarily used to describe a specific order or sequence. It should be understood that such data can be interchanged where appropriate so that the embodiments of the invention described herein can be implemented in orders other than those illustrated or described herein. Furthermore, the terms "comprising" and "having," and any variations thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion; for example, a process, method, system, product, or apparatus that comprises a series of steps or units is not necessarily limited to those steps or units explicitly listed, but may include other steps or units not explicitly listed or inherent to such processes, methods, products, or apparatus.

[0018] The reliability criterion is an important concept in power system planning and operation, especially in assessing the contribution of renewable energy generation (such as wind and solar power) and energy storage systems to grid reliability. The core idea of ​​this criterion is that when a new power source or energy storage device is added to the grid, the overall system reliability remains unchanged or reaches a predetermined reliability level. In other words, the newly added resources can compensate for or replace the lack of other power sources or energy storage in the system, ensuring that the system can maintain the same level of power supply reliability even under worst operating conditions.

[0019] Sequential Monte Carlo sampling is an iterative sampling technique and analysis method that approximates the posterior probability distribution by generating a series of particles (samples representing the system state). These particles are continuously updated over time to reflect the true changes in the system state over time.

[0020] According to an embodiment of the present invention, a method embodiment for determining the capacity reliability of energy storage devices in a distribution network is provided. It should be noted that the steps shown in the flowchart in the accompanying drawings can be executed in a computer system such as a set of computer-executable instructions. Furthermore, although a logical order is shown in the flowchart, in some cases, the steps shown or described may be executed in a different order than that shown here.

[0021] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of a method for determining the capacity reliability of energy storage devices in a distribution network according to an embodiment of the present invention, such as... Figure 1 As shown, the method includes the following steps:

[0022] Step S102: Obtain the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network, wherein the power supply reliability score is used to quantify the reliability level of the first distribution network in continuously supplying power within a predetermined evaluation period.

[0023] Optionally, the power supply reliability score is based on a series of power system performance indicators, including but not limited to the expected power shortage, frequency of power shortage, and duration of power shortage. The power supply reliability score considers the normal operation and fault conditions of all system components within the first distribution network (including but not limited to distribution feeders, buses, circuit breakers, and transformers), as well as changes in system load. By simulating or analyzing various operating states that may occur within a predetermined evaluation period, the expected energy or frequency at which the first distribution network fails to meet load demand under different operating states is calculated, thus obtaining a quantitative score reflecting its power supply reliability level. The power supply reliability score of the first distribution network serves as a benchmark, clearly demonstrating the inherent power supply capacity and reliability level of the first distribution network without additional resource access.

[0024] In one optional embodiment, obtaining the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network includes: determining the operating constraints of the first distribution network, wherein the operating constraints include at least: secondary power outage constraints and radial operating constraints, wherein the secondary power outage constraints are used to ensure that during the fault recovery process, the power supply to any power demand point of the first distribution network is restored and the first distribution network will not experience another power outage, and the radial operating constraints are used to ensure that the operating state of the first distribution network maintains a radial structure; sampling the time-series states corresponding to multiple system components within a predetermined evaluation period to determine the target reliability index of the first distribution network, wherein the multiple system components include at least distribution feeders, buses, circuit breakers and transformers, and the time-series states include operating states and fault states; and obtaining the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network based on the operating constraints and the target reliability index.

[0025] Optionally, obtaining the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network involves setting operational constraints and determining reliability indicators. First, the operational constraints of the first distribution network need to be determined. The first distribution network needs to meet secondary power outage constraints to ensure that, when the power supply to a certain power demand point is restored during a fault, that power demand point will not experience another power outage during the entire fault recovery process, until the entire system returns to a stable operating state. Secondary power outage constraints can be represented as follows: ,in, Used to mark whether any power demand point remains powered throughout the entire fault period. If any power demand point remains powered throughout the entire time interval from the occurrence of the fault to its complete recovery... Inside, maintain uninterrupted power supply, then =1; conversely, if any point of electricity demand experiences a power outage during this period, then =0, where i represents the index of any electricity demand point. This is a binary variable representing the instantaneous power outage state of any power demand point at any given time, where t represents the index of that time. It indicates when any power demand point is in islanded mode at any given time, meaning it is maintaining power supply through the support of other resources. =1; and when any point of electricity demand experiences a power outage at any given time due to a fault or insufficient resources, =0. Reflecting the power supply status at each point in time is fundamental to determining whether the power demand points meet the secondary outage constraints throughout the entire fault period. The primary distribution network needs to meet radial operation constraints to ensure that its operating topology maintains a radial structure during normal operation and fault recovery; that is, the network's operating state should maintain a single path from the power source to the load. Radial operation constraints can be represented as follows:

[0026] ;

[0027] ;

[0028] ;

[0029] ; ;

[0030] in, and These are indicators representing the line status between any two electricity demand points, used to help determine whether the distribution network maintains its unique radial operating structure. i and j represent the indices of any electricity demand point. A binary variable representing the switching status of a line between any two electricity demand points; when the line is closed and in operation. The value is 1; conversely, if the line is disconnected due to a fault or other reason... It is 0. Let represent the set of electricity demand points included in any island, where 'a' represents the index of any island, and 'A' represents the number of islands. This represents the set of all power demand points adjacent to any given power demand point. Next, the operating and fault states of multiple system components in the distribution network are randomly sampled within a predetermined evaluation period. The failure rates and repair times of these components are simulated to generate a series of possible system state sequences, upon which the target reliability index is calculated. This target reliability index is a key parameter used to quantify the power supply reliability of the distribution network. The specific value of the target reliability index is calculated by evaluating different sampled system states. Finally, based on the above operating constraints and the target reliability index, the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network is calculated using a corresponding algorithm or model. The score reflects the distribution network's ability and level of continuous power supply within the predetermined period. The calculation results of the power supply reliability score can be used to guide the investment decisions for the first distribution network.

[0031] In one optional embodiment, sampling processing is performed on the time-series states corresponding to multiple system components within a predetermined evaluation period to determine the target reliability index of the first distribution network. This includes: sampling processing on the time-series states corresponding to multiple system components within the predetermined evaluation period to obtain time-series state vectors corresponding to multiple system components, wherein any element in the time-series state vector represents whether the corresponding system component is in an operating state or a fault state at a corresponding time within the predetermined evaluation period; simulating the operation of the first distribution network based on the time-series state vectors corresponding to multiple system components to obtain the initial reliability index of the first distribution network; repeating the simulation process until a preset convergence condition is reached, wherein the preset convergence condition indicates that the variance coefficient is lower than a preset threshold, and the variance coefficient is used to quantify the stability of the sampling results in the sequential Monte Carlo sampling process; and obtaining the target reliability index of the first distribution network based on the reliability index obtained when the preset convergence condition is reached.

[0032] Optionally, in obtaining the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network, generating and simulating the time-series state vector using the sequential Monte Carlo sampling method is a crucial process. Simulation can explore the performance of the first distribution network when facing random and uncertain factors. The sampling process targets each component in the first distribution network; within a predetermined evaluation period, the operating or fault state of each component is randomly sampled. This generates a time-series state vector, where each vector element represents the state sequence of the component within the evaluation period, clearly identifying when the component is in an operating state and when it is in a fault state. For example, the normal operating time of any system component may follow a failure rate... By simulating uncertainty using random number sampling that follows a 0-1 uniform distribution, the uptime of any system component can be obtained. Similarly, assume that the failure duration of any system component follows a repair rate of The exponential distribution can be used to obtain the fault repair time of any system component. The sampled uptime With fault repair time When the samples are arranged in an ordered manner, the timing state vector of any system element is obtained when the following formula is satisfied. Where k represents the index of any system component, and the predetermined evaluation period. 'j' is used to identify any point in the sampling process. Based on the generated time-series state vectors corresponding to multiple system components, the operation state of the first distribution network is simulated, demonstrating how the first distribution network maintains power supply under different operating and fault conditions. The simulation results will be used to calculate the initial reliability index of the first distribution network. The simulation process needs to be repeated multiple times, each time using a new time-series state vector. This repetition process ensures that the estimated value of the reliability index is sufficiently stable and accurate. The termination condition for repetition is reaching a preset convergence condition, i.e., the stability of the sampling results is measured by the variance coefficient. When the variance coefficient is lower than a preset threshold, it indicates that the sampling results tend to be stable, the estimated value of the reliability index is reliable, and the simulation can be stopped to further save computational resources. The variance coefficient can be obtained in the following way: ,in, Represents the variance coefficient. This represents the variance of the sampled data. The sampled data represents the time-series state vectors corresponding to multiple system components obtained during the simulation. This represents the mean of the sampled data, and n represents the number of sampled data. This represents the standard deviation of the sampled data. Furthermore, constructing a standard normal distribution and setting confidence levels are crucial steps to ensure the reliability of the sampling results. The calculation of the coefficient of variance, combined with the upper quantile of the standard normal distribution, can serve as a basis for determining whether the sampling process has converged. The standard normal distribution can be obtained as follows: , The above formula represents the standard normal distribution, where, This indicates that the standard normal distribution is about The upper quantile, This represents the probability of a standard normal distribution being located at the upper quantile; 1- This represents the confidence probability. Transforming the equation for the standard normal distribution, we obtain... For example, reasonable confidence level α =0.05, then the upper quantile Set the variance coefficient You can get α The error accuracy at 0.05 is This indicates that in α True value of ideal reliability level at 0.05 y Compared with the estimated values ​​obtained by sequential Monte Carlo sampling If the error is small, within ±10%, the sampling process can be considered to have reached convergence, and sampling can be terminated. The sampling results at this point represent the target reliability index of the first distribution network. The target reliability index reflects the average performance of the first distribution network when facing various random events. Using the sequential Monte Carlo sampling method for time-series state vector sampling and operational simulation of the first distribution network can improve the accuracy and reliability of power supply reliability assessment.

[0033] In an optional embodiment, when the target reliability index represents the expected power shortage, obtaining the target reliability index of the first distribution network includes: determining the target reliability index of the first distribution network in the following manner:

[0034] ;

[0035] in, This represents the expected power shortage in the first distribution network. Let represent the active power output of any power demand point in the first distribution network in any simulation, t represent the index of any simulation, T represent the total number of simulations when the preset convergence condition is met, i represent the index of any power demand point, and N represent the number of power demand points. Let represent the set of power demand points included in any island in the first distribution network, where 'a' represents the index of any island and 'A' represents the number of islands.

[0036] Optionally, the expected power shortage can be used as the target reliability index, which can comprehensively consider the performance of the first distribution network in all simulation scenarios and provide a comprehensive index to quantify the power supply capacity of the first distribution network. This reflects the expected level of long-term power supply reliability of the first distribution network under the condition of considering the state changes and uncertainties of all system components.

[0037] Step S104: Based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network, determine the first reliable capacity of the second distribution network, wherein the second distribution network is the distribution network after the distributed generation is connected to the first distribution network, and the first reliable capacity is used to quantify the actual contribution of the distributed generation to the power supply reliability of the first distribution network.

[0038] Optionally, assessing the true contribution of distributed generation (DG) to the power supply reliability of the primary distribution network is a critical task. This assessment process involves quantifying the changes in power supply reliability before and after the upgrade of the primary distribution network, thereby determining the credible capacity of the DG—that is, the capacity it can replace relative to conventional power sources while maintaining the same level of power supply reliability. By comparing the power supply reliability scores before and after the integration of DG, the first credible capacity can accurately reflect the actual contribution of DG to improving the power supply reliability of the primary distribution network.

[0039] In one optional embodiment, determining the first reliable capacity of the second distribution network based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network includes: obtaining the power supply reliability score of the second distribution network; and determining the first reliable capacity based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network and the power supply reliability score of the second distribution network.

[0040] Optionally, based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network, distributed generation (including but not limited to wind turbines and photovoltaic units) can be connected to the first distribution network to form a second distribution network. The power supply reliability score of the second distribution network is then calculated again using a similar method to assess the impact of distributed generation on the power supply capacity of the first distribution network. By comparing the power supply reliability scores of the first and second distribution networks, a load level or capacity improvement point is found where the power supply reliability score of the second distribution network is equal to that of the first distribution network. This means that, while maintaining the same level of power supply reliability, the additional load or the capacity of conventional power sources that the second distribution network can carry is the first reliable capacity. The first reliable capacity reflects the actual contribution of distributed generation to improving the power supply reliability of the first distribution network.

[0041] In one optional embodiment, determining a first reliable capacity based on the power supply reliability score of a first distribution network and the power supply reliability score of a second distribution network includes: determining a first reliability criterion based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network and the power supply reliability score of the second distribution network, wherein the first reliability criterion indicates that the power supply reliability score of the second distribution network is the same as that of the first distribution network; and determining the load carrying capacity increase of the second distribution network relative to the first distribution network as the first reliable capacity if the first reliability criterion is met.

[0042] Optionally, determining the first reliable capacity using a first-level reliability criterion is a precise method for measuring the actual reliability contribution of distributed generation. This process involves comparing the power supply reliability scores of a first distribution network and a second distribution network containing distributed generation, quantifying the capacity value of distributed generation while keeping reliability constant. For example, suppose the capacity of conventional units in the first distribution network is... The load level of the first distribution network is Then the reliability level of the first distribution network can be expressed as: When the capacity is wind turbine units and The photovoltaic units are connected to the first distribution network, meaning that distributed power sources, including wind turbines and photovoltaic units, form the second distribution network. The power supply reliability level of the second distribution network is improved to... The capacity contribution of newly connected distributed power sources can be represented by the increased load. When the load level increases to... If the first reliability criterion holds, then it is called the load carrying capacity increase (first reliable capacity). For access capacity The reliable capacity of distributed power sources. The first-order reliability criterion can be expressed as follows: Based on the first reliable capacity, the configuration and layout of distributed power sources can be optimized to ensure that the primary distribution network maintains or improves power supply reliability while introducing renewable energy, thus avoiding resource waste. Furthermore, the capacity reliability of distributed power sources... It is an important indicator for measuring the reliability of distributed power generation capacity, reflecting the confidence level of distributed power generation capacity. The reliability of distributed power generation capacity can be obtained in the following ways: The capacity reliability of distributed power sources ranges from 0 to 1, with a higher value indicating a higher capacity contribution from the distributed power source.

[0043] Step S106: Based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network, determine the second reliable capacity of the third distribution network, wherein the third distribution network is the distribution network after the energy storage device is connected to the second distribution network, and the second reliable capacity is used to quantify the actual contribution of distributed power sources and energy storage devices to the power supply reliability of the first distribution network.

[0044] Optionally, after evaluating the power supply reliability score of the second distribution network (a distribution network containing distributed generation but without energy storage devices), a third distribution network is created, which involves connecting energy storage devices to the second distribution network. The addition of energy storage devices aims to further smooth out fluctuations in the output of distributed generation and improve the overall power supply stability and reliability of the distribution network. Finally, by analyzing and comparing the power supply reliability scores of the first and third distribution networks, and ensuring equal power supply reliability, the load carrying capacity increase of the third distribution network relative to the first distribution network after the integration of energy storage devices is determined, i.e., the second reliable capacity. This quantifies the true contribution of distributed generation and energy storage devices to the power supply reliability of the distribution network when working together.

[0045] In one optional embodiment, determining the second reliable capacity of the third distribution network based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network includes: obtaining the constraints of the energy storage device, wherein the constraints of the energy storage device include at least: energy balance constraints, state of charge constraints, and charge / discharge power constraints. The energy balance constraints are used to indicate the energy conservation of the energy storage device during the charge and discharge process. The state of charge constraints indicate that the state of charge of the energy storage device at any time is within a preset state of charge range. The charge / discharge power constraints indicate that the charging power of the energy storage device at any time is less than the rated power of the energy storage device, and the discharging power of the energy storage device at any time is less than the rated power of the energy storage device. Based on the constraints of the energy storage device, obtaining the power supply reliability score of the third distribution network; and determining the second reliable capacity based on the power supply reliability scores of the first and third distribution networks.

[0046] Optionally, when calculating the reliability of the third distribution network, the actual operating characteristics of the energy storage equipment must be considered, and constraints must be set, including at least energy balance constraints, state of charge constraints, and charge / discharge power constraints. Energy balance constraints ensure that the energy charged by the energy storage equipment equals the energy released during one charge / discharge cycle, thus ensuring energy balance during long-term operation. Energy balance constraints can be represented as follows: ,in, SOC(t-1) represents the state of charge of the energy storage device at any given moment, while SOC(t-1) represents the state of charge of the energy storage device at the previous moment. t represents the duration between two consecutive moments, and t represents the index of any given moment. This indicates the charging efficiency of the energy storage device. This indicates the discharge efficiency of the energy storage device. This represents the charging power of the energy storage device at any given time. This represents the discharge power of the energy storage device at any given time. State of charge (SCC) constraints are used to limit the SCC of the energy storage device at any given time to a preset range. This prevents the energy storage device from over-discharging and becoming unable to provide power when needed, or from overcharging and causing safety hazards. SCC constraints can be represented as follows: ,in, This represents the minimum state of charge of an energy storage device. This represents the maximum state of charge (SOC) of the energy storage device. Charge / discharge power constraints stipulate that the charge / discharge power of the energy storage device at any given time cannot exceed its rated power. This helps optimize the efficiency of the energy storage device and prevent overload. Charge / discharge power constraints can be expressed as follows: ; ; ,in, This represents the rated power of the energy storage device. Under the constraints of the energy storage device, the power supply reliability score of the third distribution network (i.e., the distribution network to which the energy storage device is connected) is calculated using the same method as obtaining the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network. Finally, by comparing the power supply reliability scores of the first and third distribution networks, and under the principle of equal power supply reliability, the actual improvement in load-carrying capacity of the third distribution network relative to the first distribution network is found, i.e., the second reliable capacity. The second reliable capacity is used to quantify the contribution of distributed power sources and energy storage devices to the improvement of distribution network power supply reliability.

[0047] In one optional embodiment, determining the second reliable capacity based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network and the power supply reliability score of the third distribution network includes: determining a second reliability criterion based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network and the power supply reliability score of the third distribution network, wherein the second reliability criterion indicates that the power supply reliability score of the third distribution network is the same as that of the first distribution network; and determining the load carrying capacity increase of the third distribution network relative to the first distribution network as the second reliable capacity if the second reliability criterion is met.

[0048] Optionally, the second-level reliability criterion means that the power supply reliability score of the third distribution network after the integration of distributed power sources and energy storage devices should be equal to the corresponding score of the first distribution network. This indicates that even after considering the uncertainties of distributed power sources and the operating characteristics and constraints of energy storage devices, the overall power supply reliability of the distribution network should not decrease. The second-level reliability criterion can be expressed as follows: ,in, Indicates the capacity of the energy storage device. The second trusted capacity refers to the trusted capacity of distributed power sources and energy storage devices. This second trusted capacity is used to quantify the actual contribution of distributed power sources and energy storage devices to the reliability of the power distribution network when they work together.

[0049] Step S108: Based on the first reliable capacity and the second reliable capacity, determine the capacity reliability of the energy storage device, wherein the capacity reliability is used to quantify the degree to which the energy storage device serves as a reliable power supply source in the first distribution network.

[0050] Optionally, capacity reliability is a key indicator for measuring the degree to which energy storage devices serve as a reliable power source in the primary distribution network. It assesses the contribution of energy storage devices to power supply reliability by comparing the improvement in power supply reliability of the primary distribution network before and after the participation of energy storage devices (second reliable capacity) with the improvement in power supply reliability when distributed power sources are connected alone (first reliable capacity), thus providing an important basis for grid planning and dispatching.

[0051] In one optional embodiment, determining the capacity reliability of the energy storage device based on a first reliable capacity and a second reliable capacity includes: determining the capacity reliability of the energy storage device in the following manner:

[0052] ;

[0053] in, This indicates the reliability of the energy storage device's capacity. Indicates the capacity contribution of energy storage devices. This indicates the rated power of the energy storage device.

[0054] Optionally, by subtracting the first reliable capacity from the second reliable capacity, the improvement in power supply reliability solely due to the energy storage device can be obtained. This difference represents the capacity contribution of the energy storage device, used to quantify its independent contribution to improving the reliability of the distribution network. Finally, the capacity contribution of the energy storage device is compared with its rated power to calculate its capacity reliability. This capacity reliability reflects the actual power supply contribution of the energy storage device, i.e., the extent to which the energy storage device can be considered a reliable power source.

[0055] Through the above steps S102 to S108, the power supply reliability and reliable capacity can be quantified by considering the distribution network conditions before and after the access of distributed power sources and the further access of energy storage devices, thereby determining the capacity reliability of energy storage devices. This achieves the technical effect of improving the accuracy of assessing the actual contribution of energy storage devices in the distribution network, and solves the technical problem of insufficient accuracy in assessing the actual contribution of energy storage devices in the distribution network due to the failure of related technologies to effectively distinguish the independent contribution of energy storage devices.

[0056] Based on the above embodiments and optional embodiments, the present invention proposes an optional implementation method. Figure 2 This is a flowchart of an optional method for determining the capacity reliability of energy storage devices in a distribution network according to an embodiment of the present invention, such as... Figure 2 As shown, the method includes:

[0057] S1: Obtain the power supply reliability Re0 of the original distribution network (first distribution network). The specific implementation process is the same as in the previous embodiment, and will not be repeated here.

[0058] S2: After adding distributed generation (DG) to the first distribution network, a second distribution network is obtained. Calculate the power supply reliability Re1 after adding DG, provided that the first reliability criterion is met (Re... 1current The first reliable capacity is recorded as the load increase ratio ΔL1 (equal to Re0). The specific implementation process is the same as the aforementioned embodiment, and will not be repeated here.

[0059] S3: After installing an energy storage system (ES) in the second distribution network, a third distribution network is obtained. Calculate the power supply reliability Re2 after installing the energy storage system, under the condition that the second reliability criterion (Re) is met. 2current The load increase ratio ΔL2 (equal to Re0) is recorded as the second reliable capacity. The specific implementation process is the same as the aforementioned embodiment, and will not be repeated here.

[0060] S4: Based on the first and second trusted capacities, calculate the capacity contribution of the energy storage device. The specific implementation process is the same as the aforementioned embodiments, and will not be repeated here.

[0061] This embodiment also provides a capacity reliability determination device for energy storage devices in a distribution network. This device is used to implement the above embodiments and preferred embodiments, and details already described will not be repeated. As used below, the terms "module" and "device" can refer to a combination of software and / or hardware that performs a predetermined function. Although the devices described in the following embodiments are preferably implemented in software, hardware implementation, or a combination of software and hardware, is also possible and contemplated.

[0062] According to an embodiment of the present invention, an apparatus embodiment for implementing the above-described method for determining the capacity reliability of energy storage devices in a power distribution network is also provided. Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of a capacity reliability determination device for energy storage equipment in a power distribution network according to an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 3 As shown, the capacity reliability determination device for energy storage devices in the aforementioned distribution network includes: a power supply reliability score acquisition module 300 for the first distribution network, a first reliable capacity determination module 302, a second reliable capacity determination module 304, and a capacity reliability determination module 306, wherein:

[0063] The power supply reliability score acquisition module 300 of the first distribution network is used to acquire the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network, wherein the power supply reliability score is used to quantify the reliability level of the first distribution network in continuous power supply within a predetermined evaluation period.

[0064] The first credible capacity determination module 302, connected to the power supply reliability score acquisition module 300 of the first distribution network, is used to determine the first credible capacity of the second distribution network based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network. The second distribution network is the distribution network after the distributed power source is connected to the first distribution network. The first credible capacity is used to quantify the actual contribution of the distributed power source to the power supply reliability of the first distribution network.

[0065] The second reliable capacity determination module 304 is connected to the first reliable capacity determination module 302 and is used to determine the second reliable capacity of the third distribution network based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network. The third distribution network is the distribution network after the energy storage device is connected to the second distribution network. The second reliable capacity is used to quantify the actual contribution of distributed power sources and energy storage devices to the power supply reliability of the first distribution network.

[0066] The capacity reliability determination module 306 is connected to the second reliable capacity determination module 304 and is used to determine the capacity reliability of the energy storage device based on the first reliable capacity and the second reliable capacity. The capacity reliability is used to quantify the degree to which the energy storage device serves as a reliable power supply source in the first distribution network.

[0067] Optionally, the power supply reliability score acquisition module for the first distribution network includes: an operation constraint determination submodule, used to determine the operation constraints of the first distribution network, wherein the operation constraints include at least: secondary power outage constraints and radial operation constraints. The secondary power outage constraints are used to ensure that during the fault recovery process of the first distribution network, the power supply to any power demand point is restored and the first distribution network will not experience another power outage. The radial operation constraints are used to ensure that the operation state of the first distribution network maintains a radial structure; a target reliability index determination submodule, used to sample the time-series states corresponding to multiple system components within a predetermined evaluation period to determine the target reliability index of the first distribution network, wherein the multiple system components include at least distribution feeders, buses, circuit breakers, and transformers, and the time-series states include operating states and fault states; and a power supply reliability score acquisition submodule for the first distribution network, used to obtain the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network based on the operation constraints and the target reliability index.

[0068] Optionally, the target reliability index determination submodule includes: multiple time-series state vector determination units, used to sample the time-series states corresponding to multiple system components within a predetermined evaluation period to obtain time-series state vectors corresponding to each system component, wherein any element in the time-series state vector represents whether the corresponding system component is in an operating state or a fault state at a corresponding time within the predetermined evaluation period; an initial reliability index determination unit, used to simulate the operation of the first distribution network based on the time-series state vectors corresponding to each system component to obtain the initial reliability index of the first distribution network; a simulation stop judgment unit, used to repeatedly execute the simulation process until a preset convergence condition is reached, wherein the preset convergence condition indicates that the variance coefficient is lower than a preset threshold, and the variance coefficient is used to quantify the stability of the sampling results in the sequential Monte Carlo sampling process; and a target reliability index determination unit, used to obtain the target reliability index of the first distribution network based on the reliability index obtained when the preset convergence condition is reached.

[0069] Optionally, when the target reliability index represents the expected power shortage, the target reliability index determination unit is further configured to: determine the target reliability index of the first distribution network in the following manner:

[0070] ;

[0071] in, This represents the expected power shortage in the first distribution network. Let represent the active power output of any power demand point in the first distribution network in any simulation, t represent the index of any simulation, T represent the total number of simulations when the preset convergence condition is met, i represent the index of any power demand point, and N represent the number of power demand points. Let represent the set of power demand points included in any island in the first distribution network, where 'a' represents the index of any island and 'A' represents the number of islands.

[0072] Optionally, the first reliable capacity determination module includes: a power supply reliability score acquisition submodule for acquiring the power supply reliability score of the second distribution network; and a first reliable capacity determination submodule for determining the first reliable capacity based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network and the power supply reliability score of the second distribution network.

[0073] Optionally, the first reliable capacity submodule includes: a first reliability criterion determination unit, used to determine a first reliability criterion based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network and the power supply reliability score of the second distribution network, wherein the first reliability criterion indicates that the power supply reliability score of the second distribution network is the same as the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network; and a first reliable capacity determination unit, used to determine the load carrying capacity increase of the second distribution network relative to the first distribution network as the first reliable capacity when the first reliability criterion is met.

[0074] Optionally, the second reliable capacity determination module includes: a constraint condition acquisition submodule, used to acquire the constraint conditions of the energy storage device, wherein the constraint conditions of the energy storage device include at least: energy balance constraint, state of charge constraint, and charge / discharge power constraint. The energy balance constraint is used to indicate the energy conservation of the energy storage device during the charge and discharge process. The state of charge constraint indicates that the state of charge of the energy storage device at any time is within a preset state of charge range. The charge / discharge power constraint indicates that the charging power of the energy storage device at any time is less than the rated power of the energy storage device, and the discharging power of the energy storage device at any time is less than the rated power of the energy storage device; a third distribution network power supply reliability score acquisition submodule, used to acquire the power supply reliability score of the third distribution network based on the constraint conditions of the energy storage device; and a second reliable capacity determination submodule, used to determine the second reliable capacity based on the power supply reliability scores of the first distribution network and the third distribution network.

[0075] Optionally, the second reliable capacity determination submodule includes: a second reliability criterion determination unit, used to determine a second reliability criterion based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network and the power supply reliability score of the third distribution network, wherein the second reliability criterion indicates that the power supply reliability score of the third distribution network is the same as the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network; and a second reliable capacity determination unit, used to determine the load carrying capacity increase of the third distribution network relative to the first distribution network as the second reliable capacity when the second reliability criterion is met.

[0076] Optionally, the capacity reliability determination module includes: a capacity reliability determination submodule, used to determine the capacity reliability of the energy storage device in the following manner:

[0077] ;

[0078] in, This indicates the reliability of the energy storage device's capacity. Indicates the capacity contribution of energy storage devices. This indicates the rated power of the energy storage device.

[0079] It should be noted that the above modules can be implemented by software or hardware. For example, for the latter, it can be implemented in the following ways: the above modules can be located in the same processor; or the above modules can be located in different processors in any combination.

[0080] It should be noted that the power supply reliability score acquisition module 300, the first reliable capacity determination module 302, the second reliable capacity determination module 304, and the capacity reliability determination module 306 of the aforementioned first distribution network correspond to steps S102 to S108 in the embodiments. The instances and application scenarios implemented by the above modules and corresponding steps are the same, but are not limited to the content disclosed in the above embodiments. It should be noted that the above modules, as part of the device, can run on a computer terminal.

[0081] It should be noted that the optional or preferred implementation methods of this embodiment can be found in the relevant descriptions in the embodiments, and will not be repeated here.

[0082] The capacity reliability determination device for energy storage devices in the aforementioned power distribution network may also include a processor and a memory. The power supply reliability score acquisition module 300, the first reliable capacity determination module 302, the second reliable capacity determination module 304, and the capacity reliability determination module 306 of the aforementioned first power distribution network are all stored in the memory as program modules. The processor executes the aforementioned program modules stored in the memory to realize the corresponding functions.

[0083] The processor contains a core that retrieves the corresponding program modules from memory. One or more cores may be configured. Memory may include non-persistent memory in computer-readable media, such as random access memory (RAM) and / or non-volatile memory, such as read-only memory (ROM) or flash RAM. Memory includes at least one memory chip.

[0084] According to an embodiment of this application, an embodiment of a non-volatile storage medium is also provided. Optionally, in this embodiment, the non-volatile storage medium includes a stored program, wherein, when the program runs, it controls the device containing the non-volatile storage medium to execute any of the above-mentioned methods for determining the capacity reliability of energy storage devices in a power distribution network.

[0085] Optionally, in this embodiment, the non-volatile storage medium may be located in any computer terminal in a group of computer terminals in a computer network, or in any mobile terminal in a group of mobile terminals, and the non-volatile storage medium includes stored programs.

[0086] Optionally, during program execution, the device containing the non-volatile storage medium is controlled to perform the following functions: obtaining a power supply reliability score for the first distribution network, wherein the power supply reliability score is used to quantify the reliability level of the first distribution network's continuous power supply within a predetermined evaluation period; determining a first reliable capacity for the second distribution network based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network, wherein the second distribution network is the distribution network after the integration of distributed power sources into the first distribution network, and the first reliable capacity is used to quantify the actual contribution of distributed power sources to the power supply reliability of the first distribution network; determining a second reliable capacity for the third distribution network based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network, wherein the third distribution network is the distribution network after the integration of energy storage devices into the second distribution network, and the second reliable capacity is used to quantify the actual contribution of distributed power sources and energy storage devices to the power supply reliability of the first distribution network; and determining the capacity reliability of the energy storage device based on the first reliable capacity and the second reliable capacity, wherein the capacity reliability is used to quantify the degree to which the energy storage device serves as a reliable power supply source in the first distribution network.

[0087] According to an embodiment of this application, an embodiment of a processor is also provided. Optionally, in this embodiment, the processor is used to run a program, wherein the program executes any of the above-described methods for determining the capacity reliability of energy storage devices in a power distribution network.

[0088] According to an embodiment of this application, an embodiment of a computer program product is also provided. Optionally, in this embodiment, the computer program product includes a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method for determining the capacity reliability of energy storage devices in a power distribution network as described above.

[0089] Optionally, when the aforementioned computer program product is executed on a data processing device, it is suitable to execute a program with the following initialization steps: obtaining a power supply reliability score of a first distribution network, wherein the power supply reliability score is used to quantify the reliability level of continuous power supply of the first distribution network within a predetermined evaluation period; determining a first reliable capacity of a second distribution network based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network, wherein the second distribution network is the distribution network after the integration of distributed power sources into the first distribution network, and the first reliable capacity is used to quantify the actual contribution of distributed power sources to the power supply reliability of the first distribution network; determining a second reliable capacity of a third distribution network based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network, wherein the third distribution network is the distribution network after the integration of energy storage devices into the second distribution network, and the second reliable capacity is used to quantify the actual contribution of distributed power sources and energy storage devices to the power supply reliability of the first distribution network; and determining the capacity reliability of the energy storage device based on the first reliable capacity and the second reliable capacity, wherein the capacity reliability is used to quantify the degree to which the energy storage device serves as a reliable power supply source in the first distribution network.

[0090] This invention provides an electronic device including a processor, a memory, and a program stored in the memory and executable on the processor. When the processor executes the program, it performs the following steps: obtaining a power supply reliability score for a first distribution network, wherein the power supply reliability score is used to quantify the reliability level of continuous power supply of the first distribution network within a predetermined evaluation period; determining a first reliable capacity for a second distribution network based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network, wherein the second distribution network is a distribution network after the integration of distributed power sources into the first distribution network, and the first reliable capacity is used to quantify the actual contribution of distributed power sources to the power supply reliability of the first distribution network; determining a second reliable capacity for a third distribution network based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network, wherein the third distribution network is a distribution network after the integration of energy storage devices into the second distribution network, and the second reliable capacity is used to quantify the actual contribution of distributed power sources and energy storage devices to the power supply reliability of the first distribution network; and determining the capacity reliability of the energy storage device based on the first reliable capacity and the second reliable capacity, wherein the capacity reliability is used to quantify the degree to which the energy storage device serves as a reliable power source in the first distribution network.

[0091] The order of the above embodiments of the present invention is merely for description and does not represent the superiority or inferiority of the embodiments.

[0092] In the above embodiments of the present invention, the descriptions of each embodiment have different focuses. For parts not described in detail in a certain embodiment, please refer to the relevant descriptions of other embodiments.

[0093] In the several embodiments provided in this application, it should be understood that the disclosed technical content can be implemented in other ways. The device embodiments described above are merely illustrative; for example, the division of modules described above can be a logical functional division, and in actual implementation, there may be other division methods. For example, multiple modules or components may be combined or integrated into another system, or some features may be ignored or not executed. Furthermore, the coupling or direct coupling or communication connection shown or discussed may be through some interfaces, or indirect coupling or communication connection between modules, and may be electrical or other forms.

[0094] The modules described above as separate components may or may not be physically separate. Similarly, the components shown as modules may or may not be physical modules; they may be located in one place or distributed across multiple modules. Some or all of the modules can be selected to achieve the purpose of this embodiment, depending on actual needs.

[0095] Furthermore, the functional modules in the various embodiments of the present invention can be integrated into one processing module, or each module can exist physically separately, or two or more modules can be integrated into one module. The integrated modules described above can be implemented in hardware or as software functional modules.

[0096] If the aforementioned integrated modules are implemented as software functional modules and sold or used as independent products, they can be stored in a computer-readable non-volatile storage medium. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of this invention, in essence, or the part that contributes to the prior art, or all or part of the technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product. This computer software product is stored in a non-volatile storage medium and includes several instructions to cause a computer device (which may be a personal computer, server, or network device, etc.) to execute all or part of the steps of the methods of the various embodiments of this invention. The aforementioned non-volatile storage medium includes various media capable of storing program code, such as USB flash drives, read-only memory (ROM), random access memory (RAM), portable hard drives, magnetic disks, or optical disks.

[0097] The above are merely preferred embodiments of the present invention. It should be noted that those skilled in the art can make various improvements and modifications without departing from the principle of the present invention, and these improvements and modifications should also be considered within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for determining the capacity reliability of energy storage devices in a power distribution network, characterized in that, include: Obtain a power supply reliability score for the first distribution network, wherein the power supply reliability score is used to quantify the reliability level of the first distribution network in continuously supplying power within a predetermined evaluation period; Based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network, the first credible capacity of the second distribution network is determined, wherein the second distribution network is the distribution network after the distributed power source is connected to the first distribution network, and the first credible capacity is used to quantify the actual contribution of the distributed power source to the power supply reliability of the first distribution network. Based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network, the second reliable capacity of the third distribution network is determined, wherein the third distribution network is the distribution network after the energy storage device is connected to the second distribution network, and the second reliable capacity is used to quantify the actual contribution of the distributed power source and the energy storage device to the power supply reliability of the first distribution network. Based on the first reliable capacity and the second reliable capacity, the capacity reliability of the energy storage device is determined, wherein the capacity reliability is used to quantify the degree to which the energy storage device serves as a reliable power supply source in the first distribution network.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The determination of the first reliable capacity of the second distribution network based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network includes: Obtain the power supply reliability score of the second distribution network; The first reliable capacity is determined based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network and the power supply reliability score of the second distribution network.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The determination of the second reliable capacity of the third distribution network based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network includes: Obtain the constraints of the energy storage device, wherein the constraints of the energy storage device include at least: energy balance constraints, state of charge constraints, and charge / discharge power constraints. The energy balance constraints are used to indicate the energy conservation of the energy storage device during the charging and discharging process. The state of charge constraints indicate that the state of charge of the energy storage device at any time is within a preset state of charge range. The charge / discharge power constraints indicate that the charging power of the energy storage device at any time is less than the rated power of the energy storage device, and the discharging power of the energy storage device at any time is less than the rated power of the energy storage device. Based on the constraints of the energy storage device, the power supply reliability score of the third distribution network is obtained; The second reliable capacity is determined based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network and the power supply reliability score of the third distribution network.

4. The method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, characterized in that, The process of obtaining the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network includes: The operating constraints of the first distribution network are determined, wherein the operating constraints include at least: secondary power outage constraints and radial operating constraints. The secondary power outage constraints are used to ensure that the first distribution network will not experience another power outage when the power supply to any power demand point is restored during the fault recovery process. The radial operating constraints are used to ensure that the operating state of the first distribution network maintains a radial structure. The timing states of multiple system components within the predetermined evaluation period are sampled to determine the target reliability index of the first distribution network. The multiple system components include at least distribution feeders, buses, circuit breakers, and transformers, and the timing states include operating states and fault states. Based on the operational constraints and the target reliability index, the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network is obtained.

5. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that, The step of sampling the time-series states of multiple system components within the predetermined evaluation period to determine the target reliability index of the first distribution network includes: The timing states of each of the multiple system components within the predetermined evaluation period are sampled to obtain the timing state vectors of each of the multiple system components. Each element in the timing state vector represents whether the corresponding system component is in an operating state or a fault state at a corresponding time within the predetermined evaluation period. Based on the time-series state vectors corresponding to each of the multiple system components, the operation of the first distribution network is simulated to obtain the initial reliability index of the first distribution network. The simulation process is repeated until a preset convergence condition is reached, wherein the preset convergence condition means that the variance coefficient is lower than a preset threshold, and the variance coefficient is used to quantify the stability of the sampling results in the sequential Monte Carlo sampling process. Based on the reliability index obtained when the preset convergence condition is met, the target reliability index of the first distribution network is obtained.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that, When the target reliability index represents the expected power shortage, obtaining the target reliability index of the first distribution network includes: The target reliability index of the first distribution network is determined in the following manner: ； in, This represents the expected power shortage of the first distribution network. Let represent the active power output of any power demand point in the first distribution network in any simulation, t represent the index of any simulation, T represent the total number of simulations when the preset convergence condition is met, i represent the index of any power demand point, and N represent the number of power demand points. Let represent the set of power demand points included in any island in the first distribution network, where 'a' represents the index of any island and 'A' represents the number of islands.

7. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that, Determining the first reliable capacity based on the power supply reliability scores of the first distribution network and the second distribution network includes: Based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network and the power supply reliability score of the second distribution network, a first-level reliability criterion is determined, wherein the first-level reliability criterion means that the power supply reliability score of the second distribution network is the same as the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network. Under the condition of satisfying the first reliability criterion, the load carrying capacity increase of the second distribution network relative to the first distribution network is determined as the first reliable capacity.

8. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that, The determination of the second reliable capacity based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network and the power supply reliability score of the third distribution network includes: Based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network and the power supply reliability score of the third distribution network, a second reliability criterion is determined, wherein the second reliability criterion indicates that the power supply reliability score of the third distribution network is the same as the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network. Under the condition of satisfying the second level of reliability criteria, the load carrying capacity increase of the third distribution network relative to the first distribution network is determined as the second reliable capacity.

9. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, Determining the capacity reliability of the energy storage device based on the first reliable capacity and the second reliable capacity includes: The capacity reliability of the energy storage device is determined in the following manner: ； in, This indicates the reliability of the energy storage device's capacity. This indicates the capacity contribution of the energy storage device. This indicates the rated power of the energy storage device.

10. A device for determining the capacity reliability of energy storage equipment in a power distribution network, characterized in that, include: The power supply reliability score acquisition module of the first distribution network is used to acquire the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network, wherein the power supply reliability score is used to quantify the reliability level of the first distribution network in continuous power supply within a predetermined evaluation period. The first credible capacity determination module is used to determine the first credible capacity of the second distribution network based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network. The second distribution network is the distribution network after the distributed power source is connected to the first distribution network. The first credible capacity is used to quantify the actual contribution of the distributed power source to the power supply reliability of the first distribution network. The second reliable capacity determination module is used to determine the second reliable capacity of the third distribution network based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network. The third distribution network is the distribution network after the energy storage device is connected to the second distribution network. The second reliable capacity is used to quantify the actual contribution of the distributed power source and the energy storage device to the power supply reliability of the first distribution network. A capacity reliability determination module is used to determine the capacity reliability of the energy storage device based on the first reliable capacity and the second reliable capacity, wherein the capacity reliability is used to quantify the degree to which the energy storage device serves as a reliable power supply source in the first distribution network.

11. The apparatus according to claim 10, characterized in that, The first trusted capacity determination module includes: The power supply reliability score acquisition submodule for the second distribution network is used to acquire the power supply reliability score of the second distribution network. The first reliable capacity determination submodule is used to determine the first reliable capacity based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network and the power supply reliability score of the second distribution network.

12. The apparatus according to claim 10, characterized in that, The second trusted capacity determination module includes: The constraint condition acquisition submodule is used to acquire the constraint conditions of the energy storage device. The constraint conditions of the energy storage device include at least: energy balance constraint, state of charge constraint, and charge / discharge power constraint. The energy balance constraint is used to indicate the energy conservation of the energy storage device during the charge and discharge process. The state of charge constraint indicates that the state of charge of the energy storage device at any time is within a preset state of charge range. The charge / discharge power constraint indicates that the charging power of the energy storage device at any time is less than the rated power of the energy storage device, and the discharging power of the energy storage device at any time is less than the rated power of the energy storage device. The third distribution network power supply reliability score acquisition submodule is used to acquire the power supply reliability score of the third distribution network based on the constraints of the energy storage device. The second reliable capacity determination submodule is used to determine the second reliable capacity based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network and the power supply reliability score of the third distribution network.

13. The apparatus according to any one of claims 10 to 12, characterized in that, The power supply reliability score acquisition module for the first distribution network includes: The operation constraint determination submodule is used to determine the operation constraints of the first distribution network. The operation constraints include at least: secondary power outage constraints and radial operation constraints. The secondary power outage constraints are used to ensure that the first distribution network will not experience another power outage when the power supply to any power demand point is restored during the fault recovery process. The radial operation constraints are used to ensure that the operation state of the first distribution network maintains a radial structure. The target reliability index determination submodule is used to sample the time-series states of multiple system components within the predetermined evaluation period to determine the target reliability index of the first distribution network. The multiple system components include at least distribution feeders, buses, circuit breakers, and transformers, and the time-series states include operating states and fault states. The submodule for obtaining the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network is used to obtain the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network based on the operating constraints and the target reliability index.

14. The apparatus according to claim 13, characterized in that, The target reliability index determination submodule includes: Multiple timing state vector determination units are used to sample the timing states of the multiple system components within the predetermined evaluation period to obtain the timing state vectors of the multiple system components, wherein any element in the timing state vector indicates that the corresponding system component is in an operating state or a fault state at a corresponding time within the predetermined evaluation period. The initial reliability index determination unit is used to simulate the operation of the first distribution network based on the time-series state vectors corresponding to the multiple system components, and obtain the initial reliability index of the first distribution network. The simulation stop judgment unit is used to repeatedly execute the simulation process until a preset convergence condition is reached. The preset convergence condition means that the variance coefficient is lower than a preset threshold. The variance coefficient is used to quantify the stability of the sampling results in the sequential Monte Carlo sampling process. The target reliability index determination unit is used to obtain the target reliability index of the first distribution network based on the reliability index obtained when the preset convergence condition is met.

15. The apparatus according to claim 14, characterized in that, When the target reliability index represents the expected power shortage, the target reliability index determination unit is further configured to: The target reliability index of the first distribution network is determined in the following manner: ； in, This represents the expected power shortage of the first distribution network. Let represent the active power output of any power demand point in the first distribution network in any simulation, t represent the index of any simulation, T represent the total number of simulations when the preset convergence condition is met, i represent the index of any power demand point, and N represent the number of power demand points. Let represent the set of power demand points included in any island in the first distribution network, where 'a' represents the index of any island and 'A' represents the number of islands.

16. The apparatus according to claim 11, characterized in that, The first trusted capacity submodule includes: The first-level reliability criterion determination unit is used to determine the first-level reliability criterion based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network and the power supply reliability score of the second distribution network, wherein the first-level reliability criterion indicates that the power supply reliability score of the second distribution network is the same as the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network. The first reliable capacity determination unit is used to determine the load carrying capacity increase of the second distribution network relative to the first distribution network as the first reliable capacity, provided that the first reliability criterion is met.

17. The apparatus according to claim 12, characterized in that, The second trusted capacity determination submodule includes: The second reliability criterion determination unit is used to determine the second reliability criterion based on the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network and the power supply reliability score of the third distribution network, wherein the second reliability criterion indicates that the power supply reliability score of the third distribution network is the same as the power supply reliability score of the first distribution network. The second reliable capacity determination unit is used to determine the load carrying capacity increase of the third distribution network relative to the first distribution network as the second reliable capacity, provided that the second reliability criterion is met.

18. The apparatus according to claim 10, characterized in that, The capacity reliability determination module includes: The capacity reliability determination submodule is used to determine the capacity reliability of the energy storage device in the following manner: ； in, This indicates the reliability of the energy storage device's capacity. This indicates the capacity contribution of the energy storage device. This indicates the rated power of the energy storage device.

19. An electronic device, characterized in that, It includes one or more processors and a memory, the memory being used to store one or more programs for execution, wherein when the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the one or more processors cause the one or more processors to implement the capacity reliability determination method for energy storage devices in a distribution network as described in any one of claims 1 to 9.

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