Land oil pipeline target reliability determination method based on accident risk analysis

Abstract

The invention discloses a land oil pipeline target reliability determination method based on accident risk analysis. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring historical accident data of a land oil pipeline; constructing a plurality of historical accident data sets based on the historical accident data; establishing an accident consequence calculation model based on the plurality of historical accident data sets; determining a reference risk value of the pipe section, and calculating a reference failure probability of the pipe section based on the reference risk value; establishing a land oil pipeline target reliability calculation model based on the reference failure probability and the accident consequence model; and calculating the land oil pipeline target reliability of different environment areas based on the land oil pipeline target reliability calculation model. According to the method, the environmental sensitivity of the oil pipeline accident is considered, continuous updating of the historical accident data set of the land oil pipeline in the future is also considered, the benchmark is very easy to recalibrate in the future, and the method can better adapt to the development of the pipeline industry.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention belongs to the field of onshore oil pipeline design technology, and particularly relates to a method for determining the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines based on accident risk analysis. Background Technology

[0002] With the continuous expansion of oil and gas pipeline networks, government control over pipeline safety risks has become increasingly stringent, and public safety awareness has gradually improved, leading to higher requirements for the reliability of oil and gas pipelines. Therefore, reliability-based design and evaluation methods are needed to assess the reliability of oil and gas pipelines. The key to reliability-based design and evaluation lies in determining the target reliability and calculating the reliability. The target reliability represents the minimum reliability that an oil and gas pipeline can meet under transportation requirements; that is, when a pipeline meets the target reliability requirements, we consider it to be able to operate reliably. Currently, many countries have formulated relevant standards for the target reliability of natural gas pipelines, providing guidance for the design of new pipelines and the operation and maintenance of existing pipelines. However, there is currently little research on methods for determining the target reliability of oil pipelines, and no corresponding evaluation standards exist. Summary of the Invention

[0003] To address the aforementioned problems, this invention provides a method for determining the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines based on accident risk analysis, thereby overcoming the shortcomings in existing methods for determining the target reliability of oil pipelines.

[0004] A method for determining the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines based on accident risk analysis includes:

[0005] Obtain historical accident data for onshore oil pipelines;

[0006] Multiple historical accident datasets were constructed based on historical accident data;

[0007] An accident consequence calculation model was established based on multiple historical accident datasets.

[0008] Determine the baseline risk value for the pipe segment, and calculate the baseline failure probability of the pipe segment based on the baseline risk value;

[0009] A target reliability calculation model for onshore oil pipelines is established based on the baseline failure probability and accident consequence model.

[0010] The target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in different environmental regions is calculated based on the target reliability calculation model of onshore oil pipelines.

[0011] According to a specific embodiment of the present invention, constructing multiple historical accident datasets based on historical accident data further includes:

[0012] Filter historical accident data to obtain target data for historical accidents;

[0013] Based on the criteria for classifying extreme limit states and leakage limit states, historical accident target data are classified to obtain historical accident datasets for extreme limit states and historical accident datasets for leakage limit states.

[0014] According to a specific embodiment of the present invention, the historical accident target data includes the pipeline operator name, pipeline operating mileage, year of accident, pipe diameter, leakage volume, and cause of accident.

[0015] According to a specific embodiment of the present invention, the historical accident dataset of extreme limit states includes historical accident data of leakage caused by mechanical perforation and pipe rupture, and the historical accident dataset of leakage limit states includes historical accident data of leakage caused by pipe orifice.

[0016] According to a specific embodiment of the present invention, establishing an accident consequence calculation model based on multiple historical accident datasets includes:

[0017] The leakage amounts under extreme and leakage limit conditions in the historical accident data are statistically analyzed. The leakage amounts under extreme limit conditions include the leakage amounts from mechanical perforation and rupture accidents, while the leakage amounts under leakage limit conditions include the leakage amounts from pipe orifices.

[0018] Data fitting was performed on the leakage rates under extreme and leakage limit states respectively to obtain accident consequence models corresponding to the extreme and leakage limit states.

[0019] The accident consequence model for the leakage limit state is as follows:

[0020]

[0021] The accident consequence model under extreme limit conditions is as follows:

[0022]

[0023]

[0024] in, The leakage amount in a single incident of a pinhole leak is expressed in m. 3 ; The leakage amount in a single pipeline rupture and leakage accident is m. 3 ; The leakage amount in a single mechanical perforation leak accident is m. 3 D is the outer diameter of the pipe, in meters (m).

[0025] According to a specific embodiment of the present invention, the method for determining the benchmark risk value includes:

[0026] Further filtering of the historical accident dataset yielded the top N operators in terms of total operating mileage;

[0027] The formula for calculating the total volume of leaks from n incidents occurring in a given year for each operator in the historical incident dataset is as follows:

[0028]

[0029] In the formula, V year V represents the total volume of leaks from n accidents occurring in a given year. i,year The leakage volume of a single incident in a given year;

[0030] The leakage rate per kilometer of pipeline for each operator in a given year is calculated using the following formula:

[0031]

[0032] In the formula, r year Leakage rate per kilometer of pipe segment for each operator in a given year, m year The pipeline operating mileage of the operator in a given year;

[0033] The formula for calculating the average annual leakage rate per kilometer of pipeline for each operator is as follows:

[0034]

[0035] In the formula, The average annual leakage rate per kilometer of pipeline for each operator, where year1 is the starting year of the accident statistics and year2 is the ending year of the accident statistics.

[0036] The weighted average leakage rate per kilometer of pipeline for each operator is sorted from smallest to largest, and the quartiles and averages are calculated. The lower quartile Q1 and the average are selected as the risk benchmark.

[0037] According to a specific embodiment of the present invention, the formula for calculating the baseline failure probability is as follows:

[0038]

[0039] In the formula, P max denoted as the annual baseline failure probability per kilometer of pipe segment, i.e., the maximum permissible failure probability; r0 is the risk baseline value of the pipe segment; and c represents the accident consequence calculated by the accident consequence calculation model, i.e., the single leakage amount of the pipeline leakage accident.

[0040] According to a specific embodiment of the present invention, the target reliability calculation model for onshore oil pipelines is as follows:

[0041]

[0042] In the formula, R T For the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines.

[0043] According to a specific embodiment of the present invention, calculating the target reliability of an onshore oil pipeline in different environmental regions based on an onshore oil pipeline target reliability calculation model includes:

[0044] Considering the differences in environmental sensitivity in different areas of the pipeline, the pipeline route area is divided into high-consequence areas and non-high-consequence areas;

[0045] Calculate the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence and non-high-consequence areas respectively.

[0046] According to a specific embodiment of the present invention, calculating the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence areas and non-high-consequence areas further includes:

[0047] The mileage factor α and environmental impact factor β are calculated based on pipeline mileage and environmental risk in high-consequence and non-high-consequence areas.

[0048] Where the mileage factor α is:

[0049]

[0050] In the formula, m HCA For the high-consequence zone mileage of the oil pipeline, m Non-HCA This refers to the mileage of the oil pipeline in the non-high-consequence zone;

[0051] The environmental impact factor β is:

[0052]

[0053] In the formula, r Non-HCA For the environmental risks of pipeline leaks in non-high-consequence areas, r HCA Environmental risks associated with oil pipeline leaks in high-consequence areas;

[0054] Combining environmental impact factor β and mileage factor α, the risk benchmark values ​​for onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence and non-high-consequence areas are calculated respectively:

[0055]

[0056]

[0057] In the formula, r 0_HCA r is the baseline value for the risk of onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence areas. 0_Non-HCA The risk benchmark value for onshore oil pipelines in non-high-consequence areas;

[0058] Based on the risk benchmark value r0, accident consequence V, mileage factor α, and environmental impact factor β, the target reliability calculation models for onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence and non-high-consequence areas are established as follows:

[0059] High-consequence zone:

[0060]

[0061] Non-high-consequence zone:

[0062]

[0063] In the formula, R T_HCA For the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence areas, R T_Non-HCA For onshore oil pipelines in non-high-consequence areas, target reliability is required.

[0064] The reliability calculation models for onshore oil pipeline targets in the high-consequence zone and non-high-consequence zone under extreme limiting conditions are as follows:

[0065]

[0066]

[0067] The target reliability calculation models for onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence and non-high-consequence zones under leakage limit conditions are as follows:

[0068]

[0069]

[0070] In the formula, r 0_ULS r is the risk benchmark value under extreme and limiting conditions. 0_LLS R is the risk baseline value under leakage limit conditions. T_HCA_ULS For the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence areas under extreme limiting conditions, R T_Non-HCA_ULS For the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in non-high-consequence areas under extreme limiting conditions, R T_HCA_LLS For the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence areas under leakage limit conditions, R T_Non-HCA_LLS The target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in non-high-consequence areas under leakage limit conditions.

[0071] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following advantages:

[0072] This invention provides a method for determining the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines based on accident risk analysis. This method considers the differences in environmental sensitivity in different regions, divides the pipeline route area into high-consequence areas and non-high-consequence areas, uses the environmental impact factor β to assess the difference in the environmental impact of oil pipeline accidents in high-consequence areas and non-high-consequence areas, and constructs a target reliability calculation model based on the historical accident dataset of onshore oil pipelines. This model considers both the environmental sensitivity of oil pipeline accidents and the continuous updating of the historical accident dataset of onshore oil pipelines in the future. The benchmark of this invention can be easily recalibrated in the future and can better adapt to the development of the pipeline industry. Attached Figure Description

[0073] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of this disclosure or the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of this disclosure. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative effort.

[0074] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of a method for determining the target reliability of an onshore oil pipeline based on accident risk analysis, according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0075] Figure 2 This is a flowchart of a method for constructing a historical accident dataset according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0076] Figure 3 This is a flowchart of a method for establishing an accident consequence calculation model according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0077] Figure 4 This is a flowchart of a method for calculating the baseline failure probability of a pipe segment according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0078] Figure 5 This is a flowchart of a method for calculating risk benchmark values ​​according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0079] Figure 6 This is a flowchart of a method for calculating the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in different environmental regions according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0080] Figure 7 This is a flowchart of a method for calculating the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence and non-high-consequence areas according to an embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0081] To enable those skilled in the art to more clearly understand the concepts and ideas of the present invention, the present invention is described in detail below with reference to specific embodiments. It should be understood that the embodiments given herein are only a part of all possible embodiments of the present invention. Those skilled in the art, after reading this specification, are capable of making improvements, modifications, or substitutions to parts or the entirety of the following embodiments, and such improvements, modifications, or substitutions are also included within the scope of protection claimed by the present invention.

[0082] In this document, the terms "first," "second," and other similar words are not intended to imply any order, quantity, or importance, but are merely used to distinguish different elements. The terms "one," "a," and other similar words are not intended to indicate the existence of only one thing, but rather that the description pertains to only one of the things, which may have one or more. The terms "contains," "includes," and other similar words are intended to indicate a logical relationship, not a spatial one. For example, "A includes B" means that logically B belongs to A, not that spatially B is located inside A. Furthermore, the meanings of the terms "contains," "includes," and other similar words should be considered open-ended, not closed. For example, "A includes B" means that B belongs to A, but B does not necessarily constitute all of A; A may also include other elements such as C, D, and E.

[0083] In this document, the terms "embodiment," "this embodiment," "an embodiment," and "one embodiment" do not imply that the description applies only to one specific embodiment, but rather that such description may also be applicable to one or more other embodiments. Those skilled in the art will understand that any description made herein with respect to one embodiment can be substituted, combined, or otherwise combined with the descriptions in one or more other embodiments. New embodiments resulting from such substitutions, combinations, or other combinations are readily conceived by those skilled in the art and fall within the scope of protection of this invention.

[0084] Example 1

[0085] Additional aspects and advantages of embodiments of the invention will be set forth in part in the description which follows, and in part will be obvious from the description, or may be learned by practice of embodiments of the invention. Figures 1-7 This invention provides a method for determining the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines based on accident risk analysis, including:

[0086] S1: Obtain historical accident data for onshore oil pipelines.

[0087] S2: Construct multiple historical accident datasets based on historical accident data.

[0088] S3: Establish an accident consequence calculation model based on multiple historical accident datasets.

[0089] S4: Determine the baseline risk value of the pipe segment and calculate the baseline failure probability of the pipe segment based on the baseline risk value.

[0090] S5: Establish a target reliability calculation model for onshore oil pipelines based on the baseline failure probability and accident consequence model.

[0091] S6: Calculate the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in different environmental regions based on the target reliability calculation model of onshore oil pipelines.

[0092] Specifically, in step S1, which involves obtaining historical accident data for onshore oil pipelines, this embodiment of the invention obtains hazardous liquid pipeline accident data and hazardous liquid pipeline daily operation data from the website of the U.S. PHMSA (Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration) from 2010 to the present as historical accident data for onshore oil pipelines.

[0093] Specifically, step S2, which constructs multiple historical accident datasets based on historical accident data, further includes:

[0094] S21: Filter historical accident data to obtain target data for historical accidents.

[0095] S22: Based on the classification criteria of extreme limit state and leakage limit state, the historical accident target data are classified to obtain the historical accident dataset of extreme limit state and the historical accident dataset of leakage limit state.

[0096] In one specific embodiment of the present invention, the historical accident target data includes the pipeline operator name, pipeline operating mileage, year of accident, pipe diameter, leakage volume, and cause of accident. In the process of screening the historical accident data, the pipeline type is first screened; this invention only screens onshore pipelines. Next, within the onshore pipelines, the pipeline function is screened, selecting data with more than 20% SMYS Regulated Transmission. Then, based on this, the pipeline transport medium is screened, selecting crude oil and refined oil. Finally, the pipeline's state at the time of the accident is screened, excluding accidents occurring during commissioning, construction, and decommissioning. The data screened using the above methods is used as the historical accident target data.

[0097] In a specific embodiment of this invention, historical accident target data is classified based on the criteria for classifying extreme limit states and leakage limit states in reliability design and evaluation methods, resulting in historical accident datasets for extreme limit states and leakage limit states. The historical accident dataset for extreme limit states includes historical accident data related to leaks caused by mechanical perforation and pipe rupture, while the historical accident dataset for leakage limit states includes historical accident data related to leaks caused by pipe orifices. An extreme limit state refers to a limit state that leads to leakage and creates a significant safety hazard. A leakage limit state refers to a limit state that leads to leakage but does not create a significant safety hazard.

[0098] Specifically, step S3, which establishes an accident consequence calculation model based on multiple historical accident datasets, includes:

[0099] S31: Statistically analyze the leakage amounts under extreme and leakage limit conditions in historical accident data. The leakage amounts under extreme limit conditions include the leakage amounts from mechanical perforation and rupture accidents, while the leakage amounts under leakage limit conditions include the leakage amounts from pipe orifices.

[0100] S32: Data fitting is performed on the leakage amounts under extreme and leakage limit states respectively to obtain accident consequence models corresponding to the extreme and leakage limit states.

[0101] The accident consequence model for the leakage limit state is as follows:

[0102]

[0103] The accident consequence model under extreme limit conditions is as follows:

[0104]

[0105] In the formula, The leakage amount in a single incident of a pinhole leak is expressed in m. 3 , The leakage amount in a single pipeline rupture accident, in m. 3 , The leakage amount in a single mechanical perforation leak accident, m 3 D is the outer diameter of the pipe, in meters.

[0106] In this embodiment of the invention, the consequences of an accident are measured by the leakage volume V. Studies have shown that the leakage amount in a pinhole leak is not significantly correlated with the pipe diameter; therefore, the average leakage amount is used to measure the leakage consequences of a pinhole leak. In contrast, the leakage amounts in mechanical perforation and rupture accidents are proportional to the square of the pipe diameter. Therefore, the leakage consequences of mechanical perforation and rupture accidents are measured by multiplying the square of the pipe diameter by the leakage amount fitted data. In a specific embodiment of the invention, the leakage amounts of pinhole leaks, mechanical perforation, and rupture accidents are statistically analyzed, and the statistical results are shown in Table 1.

[0107] Table 1

[0108] Data distribution indicators <![CDATA[Small hole leakage (m 3 )]]> <![CDATA[Mechanical perforation (m 3 )]]> <![CDATA[Rupture (m 3 )]]> average value 71.40 141.04 445.30

[0109] Specifically, step S4, which determines the baseline risk value of the pipe segment and calculates the baseline failure probability of the pipe segment based on the baseline risk value, includes:

[0110] S41: The formula for calculating the risk value of a pipe segment, defined according to the risk approach, is as follows:

[0111] P×c=r (4)

[0112] In the formula, P is the annual failure probability per kilometer of pipe section, c is the environmental consequences measured by the leakage volume, and r is the risk value of the pipe section.

[0113] S42: Set the risk value of the pipe segment to the baseline risk value r0, and establish the calculation model for the baseline failure probability based on the baseline risk value r0 as follows:

[0114]

[0115] In the formula, P max The annual baseline failure probability is denoted as r0, which is the maximum permissible failure probability per kilometer of pipe segment. r0 is the risk baseline value of the pipe segment.

[0116] The calculation methods for the risk benchmark value include:

[0117] S421: Further filtering of the historical accident dataset yields the top N operators in terms of total operating mileage. This eliminates the impact of some operators having excessively small operating mileage on the statistical data, making the data more scientific.

[0118] S422: Calculate the total volume of leaks from n incidents occurring in a given year for each operator in the historical incident dataset. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0119]

[0120] In the formula, V year V represents the total volume of leaks from n accidents occurring in a given year. i,yearThe leakage volume of a single incident in a given year;

[0121] S423: Calculate the leakage rate per kilometer of pipe segment for each operator in a given year, using the following formula:

[0122]

[0123] In the formula, r year Leakage rate per kilometer of pipe segment for each operator in a given year, m year The pipeline operating mileage of the operator in a given year;

[0124] S424: Calculate the average annual leakage rate per kilometer of pipeline for each operator. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0125]

[0126] In the formula, The average annual leakage rate per kilometer of pipeline for each operator, where year1 is the starting year of the accident statistics and year2 is the ending year of the accident statistics.

[0127] S425: Sort the weighted average leakage rate per kilometer of pipeline for each operator from smallest to largest, calculate the quartiles and the average, and select the lower quartile Q1 and the average as the risk benchmark value.

[0128] In a specific embodiment of the present invention, the historical accident dataset established in step 2 is further filtered. First, the top 24 operators in terms of total operating mileage are selected for further analysis and calculation. The average leakage rate per kilometer of pipeline segment for each operator from 2010 to 2022 is calculated. The weighted average leakage rate per kilometer of pipeline segment for each operator from 2010 to 2022 is then arranged in ascending order, and the quartiles and average values ​​are calculated. The calculation results are shown in Table 2. Finally, the lower quartile Q1 and the average value are selected as the risk benchmark value, that is, the lower quartile Q1 under extreme limit conditions is selected as 1.689 × 10 -3 The average value is 14.711 × 10 -3 As the risk benchmark, the lower quartile Q1 of the leakage limit state is selected as 0.658 × 10⁻⁶. -3 The average value is 8.166 × 10 -3 As a risk benchmark.

[0129] Table 2

[0130]

[0131]

[0132] Specifically, in step S5, the target reliability calculation model for onshore oil pipelines is established based on the baseline failure probability and accident consequence model.

[0133] The target reliability calculation model for onshore oil pipelines is as follows:

[0134]

[0135] In the formula, R T For the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines.

[0136] Specifically, step S6, which calculates the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in different environmental areas based on the target reliability calculation model for onshore oil pipelines, further includes:

[0137] S61: Considering the differences in environmental sensitivity in different areas of the pipeline, the pipeline route area is divided into high-consequence areas and non-high-consequence areas.

[0138] S62: Calculate the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence and non-high-consequence areas respectively, specifically including the following steps:

[0139] S621: Calculate the mileage factor α and environmental impact factor β based on pipeline mileage and environmental risk in high-consequence and non-high-consequence areas.

[0140] Where the mileage factor α is:

[0141]

[0142] In the formula, m HCA For the high-consequence zone mileage of the oil pipeline, m Non-HCA This refers to the mileage of the oil pipeline in the non-high-consequence zone;

[0143] The environmental impact factor β is:

[0144]

[0145] In the formula, r Non-HCA For the environmental risks of pipeline leaks in non-high-consequence areas, r HCA Environmental risks associated with oil pipeline leaks in high-consequence areas.

[0146] High-consequence areas refer to areas where leaks in oil and gas pipelines would seriously endanger public safety and cause significant environmental damage. Non-high-consequence areas are areas other than high-consequence areas, where leaks in oil and gas pipelines have a smaller impact on public safety and environmental damage. Studies have shown that the impact of a leak in a high-consequence area is about three times that of the same leak in a non-high-consequence area, therefore β is taken as 3.

[0147] S622: Weighted average of environmental risks in high-consequence and low-consequence areas with pipeline mileage is used to establish an equation between this average and the risk benchmark.

[0148]

[0149] S623: Combining environmental impact factor β and mileage factor α, the risk benchmark values ​​for onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence and non-high-consequence areas are calculated as follows:

[0150]

[0151] In the formula, r 0_HCA r is the baseline value for the risk of onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence areas. 0_Non-HCA The risk benchmark value for onshore oil pipelines in non-high-consequence areas;

[0152] S624: Based on the risk benchmark value r0, accident consequence V, mileage factor α, and environmental impact factor β, the target reliability calculation models for onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence and non-high-consequence areas are established as follows:

[0153] High-consequence zone:

[0154]

[0155] Non-high-consequence zone:

[0156]

[0157] In the formula, R T_HCA For the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence areas, R T_Non-HCA The target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in non-high-consequence areas.

[0158] The reliability calculation model for onshore oil pipeline targets in high-consequence and non-high-consequence zones under extreme limit conditions is as follows:

[0159]

[0160] The target reliability calculation model for onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence and non-high-consequence zones under leakage limit conditions is as follows:

[0161]

[0162] In the formula, r 0_ULS r is the risk benchmark value under extreme and limiting conditions. 0_LLS R is the risk baseline value under leakage limit conditions. T_HCA_ULS For the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence areas under extreme limiting conditions, R T_Non-HCA_ULS For the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in non-high-consequence areas under extreme limiting conditions, RT_HCA_LLS For the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence areas under leakage limit conditions, R T_Non-HCA_LLs The target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in non-high-consequence areas under leakage limit conditions.

[0163] Example 2

[0164] This invention also provides an application example of determining the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines based on historical accident risk analysis:

[0165] This invention takes a pipe with a diameter of 1016 mm as an example. Assuming its mileage factor α = 0.4, the target reliability calculation results for the high-consequence zone and non-high-consequence zone under extreme limit state and leakage limit state are shown in Table 3:

[0166] Table 3

[0167]

[0168]

[0169] This method allows operators to assess the performance level of their pipelines relative to industry peers. The target reliability benchmark derived from the lower quartile Q1 represents the current industry-leading level, while the target reliability derived from the average value represents the current industry average reliability level.

[0170] In summary, the method for determining the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines based on accident risk analysis described in this invention has the following advantages:

[0171] This method considers the differences in environmental sensitivity in different regions, dividing the pipeline route into high-consequence and non-high-consequence areas. It uses the environmental impact factor β to assess the difference in the environmental impact of oil pipeline accidents in high-consequence and non-high-consequence areas, and constructs a target reliability calculation model based on the historical accident dataset of onshore oil pipelines. This model considers both the environmental sensitivity of oil pipeline accidents and the continuous updating of the historical accident dataset of onshore oil pipelines in the future. The benchmark of this invention can be easily recalibrated in the future and can better adapt to the development of the pipeline industry.

[0172] The concepts, principles, and ideas of the present invention have been described in detail above with reference to specific embodiments (including examples and instances). Those skilled in the art should understand that the embodiments of the present invention are not limited to those given above. After reading this application, those skilled in the art can make any possible improvements, substitutions, and equivalents to the steps, methods, systems, and components in the above embodiments. These improvements, substitutions, and equivalents should be considered to fall within the scope of the present invention, and the scope of protection of the present invention is limited to the claims.

Claims

1. A method for determining the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines based on accident risk analysis, characterized in that, include: Obtain historical accident data for onshore oil pipelines; Multiple historical accident datasets are constructed based on the aforementioned historical accident data; An accident consequence calculation model is established based on multiple historical accident datasets. Determine the baseline risk value of the pipe segment, and calculate the baseline failure probability of the pipe segment based on the baseline risk value; A target reliability calculation model for onshore oil pipelines is established based on the aforementioned baseline failure probability and the aforementioned accident consequence model. The target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in different environmental regions is calculated based on the aforementioned target reliability calculation model.

2. The method for determining the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines based on accident risk analysis according to claim 1, characterized in that, The construction of multiple historical accident datasets based on the historical accident data further includes: The historical accident data is filtered to obtain target historical accident data; The historical accident target data are classified based on the criteria for dividing extreme limit states and leakage limit states, resulting in historical accident datasets for extreme limit states and leakage limit states.

3. The method for determining the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines based on accident risk analysis according to claim 2, characterized in that, The historical accident target data includes the pipeline operator name, pipeline operating mileage, year of accident, pipe diameter, leakage volume, and cause of accident.

4. The method for determining the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines based on accident risk analysis according to claim 2, characterized in that, The historical accident dataset for extreme limit states includes historical accident data for leaks caused by mechanical perforation and pipe rupture, and the historical accident dataset for leak limit states includes historical accident data for leaks caused by pipe orifices.

5. The method for determining the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines based on accident risk analysis according to claim 1, characterized in that, The establishment of the accident consequence calculation model based on multiple historical accident datasets includes: The leakage amounts under extreme and leakage limit conditions in the historical accident data are statistically analyzed. The leakage amounts under extreme limit conditions include the leakage amounts from mechanical perforation and rupture accidents, while the leakage amounts under leakage limit conditions include the leakage amounts from pipe orifices. Data fitting was performed on the leakage rates under extreme and leakage limit states respectively to obtain accident consequence models corresponding to the extreme and leakage limit states. The accident consequence model for the leakage limit state is as follows: The accident consequence model under extreme limit conditions is as follows: in, The leakage amount in a single incident of a pinhole leak is m. 3 ; The leakage amount in a single pipeline rupture and leakage accident is m. 3 ; The leakage amount in a single mechanical perforation leak accident is m. 3 D is the outer diameter of the pipe, in meters (m).

6. The method for determining the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines based on accident risk analysis according to claim 1, characterized in that, The method for determining the benchmark risk value includes: Further filtering of the historical accident dataset yielded the top N operators in terms of total operating mileage; The total volume of leaks from n incidents occurring in a given year for each operator in the historical incident dataset is calculated using the following formula: In the formula, V year V represents the total volume of leaks from n accidents occurring in a given year. i,year The leakage volume of a single incident in a given year; The leakage rate per kilometer of pipeline for each operator in a given year is calculated using the following formula: In the formula, r year Leakage rate per kilometer of pipe segment for each operator in a given year, m year The pipeline operating mileage of the operator in a given year; The formula for calculating the average annual leakage rate per kilometer of pipeline for each operator is as follows: In the formula, The average annual leakage rate per kilometer of pipeline for each operator, where year1 is the starting year of the accident statistics and year2 is the ending year of the accident statistics. The weighted average leakage rate per kilometer of pipeline for each operator is sorted from smallest to largest, and the quartiles and averages are calculated. The lower quartile Q1 and the average are selected as the risk benchmark value.

7. The method for determining the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines based on accident risk analysis according to claim 1, characterized in that, The formula for calculating the baseline failure probability is: In the formula, P max denoted as the annual baseline failure probability per kilometer of pipe segment, i.e., the maximum permissible failure probability; r0 is the risk baseline value of the pipe segment; and c represents the accident consequence calculated by the accident consequence calculation model, i.e., the single leakage amount of the pipeline leakage accident.

8. The method for determining the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines based on accident risk analysis according to claim 1, characterized in that, The target reliability calculation model for the onshore oil pipeline is as follows: In the formula, R T For the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines.

9. The method for determining the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines based on accident risk analysis according to claim 1, characterized in that, The calculation of the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in different environmental regions based on the target reliability calculation model of the onshore oil pipeline includes: Considering the differences in environmental sensitivity in different areas of the pipeline, the pipeline route area is divided into high-consequence areas and non-high-consequence areas; Calculate the target reliability of the onshore oil pipeline in the high-consequence zone and the non-high-consequence zone respectively.

10. The method for determining the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines based on accident risk analysis according to claim 9, characterized in that, The calculation of the target reliability of the onshore oil pipeline in the high-consequence area and the non-high-consequence area further includes: The mileage factor α and environmental impact factor β are calculated based on the pipeline mileage and environmental risk in the high-consequence and non-high-consequence zones. The mileage factor α is: In the formula, m HCA For the high-consequence zone mileage of the oil pipeline, m Non-HCA This refers to the mileage of the oil pipeline in the non-high-consequence zone; The environmental impact factor β is: In the formula, r Non-HCA For the environmental risks of pipeline leaks in non-high-consequence areas, r HCA Environmental risks associated with oil pipeline leaks in high-consequence areas; Combining the environmental impact factor β and the mileage factor α, the risk benchmark values ​​for onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence and non-high-consequence areas are calculated respectively: In the formula, r 0_HCA r is the baseline value for the risk of onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence areas. 0_Non-HCA The risk benchmark value for onshore oil pipelines in non-high-consequence areas; Based on the risk benchmark value r0, accident consequence V, mileage factor α, and environmental impact factor β, the target reliability calculation models for onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence and non-high-consequence areas are established as follows: High-consequence zone: Non-high-consequence zone: In the formula, R T_HCA For the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence areas, R T_Non-HCA For onshore oil pipelines in non-high-consequence areas, target reliability is required. The reliability calculation models for onshore oil pipeline targets in the high-consequence zone and non-high-consequence zone under extreme limiting conditions are as follows: The target reliability calculation models for onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence and non-high-consequence zones under leakage limit conditions are as follows: In the formula, r 0_ULS r is the risk benchmark value under extreme and limiting conditions. 0_LLS R is the risk baseline value under leakage limit conditions. T_HCA_ULD For the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence areas under extreme limiting conditions, R T_Non-HCA_ULS For the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in non-high-consequence areas under extreme limiting conditions, R T_HCA_LLS For the target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in high-consequence areas under leakage limit conditions, R T_Non-HCA_LLS The target reliability of onshore oil pipelines in non-high-consequence areas under leakage limit conditions.

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