Method and device for evaluating the degree of long-term security of natural uranium supply for nuclear power

Abstract

The application discloses a kind of natural uranium supply to the evaluation method and equipment of long-term guarantee degree in nuclear power, belong to mineral resources guarantee technical field.The method takes primary uranium source and secondary uranium source joint supply as core analysis dimension, while giving consideration to quantity and quality, establishes evaluation index system, realizes the comprehensive quantitative analysis and prediction of the guarantee degree of natural uranium resources needed for nuclear power development by standardization evaluation process;The standardization evaluation process includes two evaluation processes of medium-term evaluation and long-term evaluation;The medium-term evaluation priority evaluation is the guarantee capacity of producing mine, and the long-term evaluation is based on the results of the medium-term evaluation Comprehensive evaluation is carried out by combining planned mine and potential mine.The present application can realize the quantitative evaluation of natural uranium supply guarantee for nuclear power, with high accuracy and strong operability.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention belongs to the field of mineral resource security technology, specifically relating to a method and equipment for evaluating the long-term security of nuclear power supply from natural uranium supply. Background Technology

[0002] Analysis of the resource security situation, especially strategic mineral resources, has attracted much attention because it is both the core and key to resource security and an important guarantee of global economic discourse power.

[0003] It is worth noting that: ① Regular dynamic evaluation and situation assessment of resources are crucial for optimizing industrial layout and ensuring a stable supply of resources; ② Fully utilizing both domestic and international resources and markets, and establishing a strategic overseas resource security system as soon as possible has become a consensus; ③ Improving the overall level of data, information, and knowledge services, and enhancing the institutionalization and convenience of information support mechanisms are development directions; ④ Enhancing global governance and awareness of cost reduction and efficiency improvement across the entire industrial chain; ⑤ Research on the security of mineral resources can be combined with the computer field to achieve systematic, dynamic, and quantitative prediction and evaluation.

[0004] In recent years, studies on the situation and strategies for uranium resource security have been conducted by scholars from various institutions, including the nuclear industry system, research institutes, and geological survey centers. These studies have covered different periods (or years) of uranium resource security, qualitatively predicting the situation and proposing several constructive strategies and recommendations. In the research on constructing an evaluation index system for uranium resource security capabilities, the connotation of uranium resource security capability was defined. It is considered that uranium resource security capability refers to the state in which a country (or region) continuously, stably, promptly, safely, and economically provides uranium resources for nuclear power development through domestic exploration and development, international trade, and foreign direct investment. Based on this, a preliminary framework for an evaluation index system for uranium resource security capability was constructed, including the foundation for uranium resource exploration and development, uranium resource development and utilization capabilities, and uranium resource sustainable development capabilities.

[0005] In fact, the level of uranium resource security involves two essential constraints. On the one hand, nuclear power plant capacity is the most significant component of uranium demand, and future expectations for nuclear power capacity are a crucial aspect of uranium market supply and demand analysis. On the other hand, the supply of natural uranium, including primary and secondary supplies, directly determines the level of nuclear power security. Currently, research on the comprehensive analysis and quantitative evaluation of the security level of natural uranium resources required for nuclear power development based on the "joint" supply of primary and secondary uranium sources (including the "quantity" of remaining mine reserves and the "quality" of resource costs) has not yet been conducted. This invention, however, achieves a comprehensive quantitative prediction and evaluation of uranium supply security under the "dual constraints" of primary and secondary supplies. It is the first to propose a technical approach to security evaluation, and has developed technical solutions for data preparation and processing, as well as a 15-step evaluation methodology that is highly operable, filling a gap in this technical field. Summary of the Invention

[0006] The present invention aims to at least partially solve one of the technical problems in the aforementioned related technologies.

[0007] Therefore, the purpose of this invention is to provide a method and equipment for evaluating the long-term security of nuclear power supply by natural uranium supply, which can achieve quantitative evaluation of nuclear power security by natural uranium supply with high accuracy and strong operability.

[0008] To solve the above-mentioned technical problems, the present invention is implemented as follows: This invention provides a method for evaluating the long-term security of nuclear power supply based on natural uranium supply. The method takes the combined supply of primary and secondary uranium sources as the core analytical dimension, while also considering both quantity and quality. It establishes an evaluation index system and, through a standardized evaluation process, achieves a comprehensive quantitative analysis and prediction of the security of natural uranium resources required for nuclear power development. The standardized evaluation process includes two evaluation processes: mid-term evaluation and long-term evaluation. The mid-term evaluation prioritizes assessing the security capabilities of operating mines, while the long-term evaluation, based on the results of the mid-term evaluation, conducts a comprehensive assessment in conjunction with planned and potential mines.

[0009] Furthermore, the method for evaluating the long-term security of nuclear power through natural uranium supply according to the present invention may also have the following additional technical features: In some of these implementations, the evaluation index system is divided into three levels, with the first-level indexes including natural uranium demand SI1, uranium resource consumption demand SI2, primary supply SI3, secondary supply SI4, predicted remaining resource reserves of operating mines in the initial year SI5, uranium resource reserves / uranium resource consumption demand SI6, natural uranium production / demand SI7, and remaining resource reserves of operating mines after mid-term forecast SI8.

[0010] In some of these embodiments, the natural uranium demand SI1 includes medium-term and long-term natural uranium demand; the uranium resource consumption demand SI2 includes medium-term and long-term uranium resource consumption; the primary supply SI3 includes operating mine resource reserves, planned mine resource reserves, potential mine resource reserves, operating mine capacity, planned mine capacity, potential mine capacity, and remaining operating mine resource reserves; and the secondary supply SI4 includes first government reserves, re-enrichment tailings / insufficient feedstock, Western highly enriched uranium products, second government reserves, and hybrid uranium reserves. Oxide fuel + highly enriched uranium products; the predicted remaining resource reserves of operating mines in the starting year SI5 includes the predicted resource reserves of operating mines in the starting year and the predicted resource consumption of operating mines in the starting year; the uranium resource reserves / demanded uranium resource consumption SI6 includes the resource reserves / demanded uranium resource consumption of mines in different cost ranges for each mine status; the natural uranium production / demand SI7 includes the natural uranium production / natural uranium demand of mines in different capacity scenarios for each mine status; the remaining resource reserves of operating mines after the mid-term forecast SI8 includes the remaining resource reserves of operating mines under different capacity scenarios.

[0011] In some implementations, the interim evaluation steps include: S1. Basic data statistics and remaining reserves calculation: Statistics on resource reserves, production capacity and natural uranium production in the starting year of different cost ranges of operating mines are compiled. The production is converted into uranium resource consumption according to the proportion and allocated according to the cost range. Finally, the remaining resource reserves of each cost range in the starting year are calculated. S2. Guarantee Evaluation from the Perspective of Reserves: Calculate the guarantee coefficient of the total remaining reserves of operating mines and reserves in each cost range on the medium-term uranium resource consumption, while also incorporating the moderating effect of secondary uranium sources and analyzing the guarantee contribution of resources at different costs; S3. Production Guarantee Assessment: Calculate and predict total production based on production capacity scenarios, allocate it to each cost range and convert it into resource consumption, calculate the guarantee coefficient of production for natural uranium demand under each scenario; analyze each production capacity scenario from low to high, and combine the coordination effect of secondary uranium sources to determine the medium-term production guarantee gap. S4. Mid-term Remaining Resource Calculation: Calculate the remaining resource reserves at the end of the mid-term forecast period under different production capacity scenarios in each cost range, and provide basic data for long-term evaluation.

[0012] In some of these implementations, step S1 converts the production output to 70% of the uranium resource consumption.

[0013] In some implementations, step S3 calculates and forecasts total output based on capacity scenarios of 85%, 90%, 95%, 100%, and 108%.

[0014] In some of these implementations, the long-term evaluation steps include: S5. Determination of basic data for long-term evaluation: The remaining reserves in the medium-term scenario are used as the starting reserves of the producing mines, and the production capacity is calculated based on a preset multiple that takes into account the capacity expansion and / or technological progress in the starting year of the medium-term scenario; and the recovery rate of natural uranium production converted into resource consumption increases; determine the long-term natural uranium demand and resource consumption. S6. Calculation of long-term production capacity and production time of operating mines: Calculate the annual production of natural uranium in each cost range according to the preset ratio of production capacity, calculate the sustainable production time of the remaining resource reserves, and back-calculate the actual production. S7. Determination of the remaining amount of secondary uranium sources: The determination does not take into account the increase in secondary supply due to technological progress, and ignores the long-term assumption of secondary supply based on the premise that the secondary uranium sources have been basically released in the medium term. S8. Calculation of Long-Term Security Coefficient for Operating Mines: Based on the calculation method of medium-term reserves and production security coefficient, analyze the remaining resources and production capacity of operating mines to meet long-term demand, and clarify the scale of the gap; S9. Assessment of Planned / Potential Mines to Fill the Gap: If the existing mines cannot meet long-term demand, follow the steps of the mid-term assessment to analyze the resource reserves of planned and potential mines and their production capacity under different production scenarios until the demand gap is filled and the long-term comprehensive security assessment is completed.

[0015] In some of these implementations, step S5 uses the remaining reserves under a 95% capacity scenario as the starting data for long-term evaluation.

[0016] In some implementations, step S6 calculates the annual production of natural uranium for each cost range based on 90% of the production capacity.

[0017] This invention also provides a computer device, including: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor executes the computer program to implement the content of the evaluation method for the long-term security of nuclear power supply of natural uranium as described in any of the preceding embodiments.

[0018] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has at least the following beneficial effects: In this embodiment of the invention, the method for evaluating the long-term security of nuclear power supply based on natural uranium supply achieves a comprehensive quantitative evaluation and prediction of the security of natural uranium resources required for nuclear power development from two dimensions (including the "quantity" of remaining mine reserves and the "quality" of resource costs) under the "dual constraints" of primary and secondary uranium source supply, filling the gap in the quantitative evaluation of uranium resource security at this level. In this embodiment of the invention, the method for evaluating the long-term security of nuclear power supply provided by natural uranium supply is proposed for the first time. It prioritizes the resource security of nuclear power development in the medium term by considering the resource reserves and production of existing mines. Secondly, based on the evaluation of the medium-term security, it combines the remaining resource reserves and production capacity of existing mines with the resources and production capacity of planned and potential mines to evaluate the long-term security. In this embodiment of the invention, the method for evaluating the long-term security of nuclear power through natural uranium supply clearly defines the technical solutions for data preparation and processing of primary and secondary supplies, establishes a step-based comprehensive evaluation technical method process, and clarifies the index quantities, calculation standards, and calculation formulas for each step, making it highly operable.

[0019] Additional aspects and advantages of the invention will be set forth in part in the description which follows, and in part will be obvious from the description, or may be learned by practice of the invention. Attached Figure Description

[0020] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of a method for quantitatively evaluating the long-term security of nuclear power through natural uranium supply, as disclosed in one embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0021] The technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some, not all, of the embodiments of the present invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0022] The embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific examples and application scenarios.

[0023] In some embodiments of the present invention, a method for evaluating the long-term security of nuclear power supply by natural uranium supply is provided, including a joint and quantitative evaluation of the security of the "resource quantity" and "production" of natural uranium required for nuclear power development by natural uranium supply, including the remaining resource reserves and production capacity of mines in the primary supply, and the natural uranium supply from global government reserves, enriched uranium from enriched uranium plants, and commercial stocks in the secondary supply.

[0024] The evaluation index system of this invention comprehensively analyzes the security of natural uranium resources required for nuclear power development based on the "joint" supply of primary and secondary uranium sources (including the "quantity" of remaining mine reserves and the "quality" of resource costs). Primary uranium source supply data is extracted from global existing, planned, and potential mine reserves and production capacity, and analyzed for resource and capacity security at different costs. Secondary uranium source supply data is extracted from global government reserves, uranium enrichment plants, commercial stocks, nuclear fuel "banks," mixed oxide fuel (MOX), and depleted uranium tailings re-enrichment (DU), serving as an "adjustment" coefficient in the security assessment. The data sources meeting the criteria are mine resource and production capacity data from the UxC consulting report: Uranium Production Cost Study, as well as UxC and WNA forecasts of total secondary uranium source supply, and data recalculated considering that Russian government reserves are larger than expected. This evaluation method is a forecast without considering the discovery or breakthrough of new low-cost uranium resources.

[0025] The overall approach to assessing the level of security is as follows: First, priority is given to the resource security and production (in conjunction with secondary uranium sources) of the existing mines in the medium term (e.g., 2023-2035). Second, based on the assessment of the medium-term security, the remaining resource reserves and production capacity of the existing mines (which may have been depleted or partially depleted) as well as the resources and production capacity of planned and potential mines are considered to assess the long-term security (e.g., 2036-2050).

[0026] Based on the overall approach and the constraints of the above-mentioned natural uranium supply assessment of the long-term security of global nuclear power, the natural uranium supply security assessment index system is established as shown in Table 1. A total of 58 index parameters are established in 3 levels, of which the first-level indicators involve 8 security assessment parameters, including: (1) SI1 natural uranium demand, which is consistent with the connotation and value of the uranium resource security assessment index, and is further divided into two secondary indicators: medium-term and long-term natural uranium demand; (2) SI2 demand uranium resource consumption conversion method is also the same as the uranium resource security assessment rule, and is matched with the demand secondary indicators, and is divided into 2 secondary indicators; (3) SI3 primary supply and (4) SI4 secondary supply are the most important indicators of uranium supply security. Primary supply is further divided into 7 secondary indicators according to the security assessment of mine resource reserves and production capacity under different states; considering a more comprehensive assessment of the security of production at both the "quantity" and "quality" levels under different cost ranges and different production capacity scenarios, the secondary evaluation indicators of reserves and production capacity are further divided into 29 tertiary indicators. The secondary supply is further divided into 5 secondary indicators based on the available data information; (5) The SI5 indicator of the remaining resource reserves of the producing mines in the forecast starting year is based on the fact that the data of the resource reserves of the producing mines is the data up to September of that year, while the production of natural uranium will be carried out simultaneously during this period. Therefore, this primary indicator is further divided into the resource reserves of the producing mines in the forecast starting year and the resource consumption of the producing mines in the forecast starting year. The difference between the two is the value of the indicator; (6) The SI6 uranium resource reserves / demand uranium resource consumption and (7) the SI7 natural uranium production / natural uranium demand are two primary indicators that are ratio indicators for evaluating the supply security situation, and are carried out from the perspectives of mine resources and production; (8) The SI8 indicator of the remaining resource reserves of the producing mines after the mid-term forecast is based on the possibility that the resource reserves and production capacity of the producing mines will still remain after the mid-term forecast.

[0027] Table 1. Overview of the Evaluation Index System for the Security of Natural Uranium Supply

[0028] The technical solution of the present invention is as follows: (1) A quantitative evaluation method for the long-term security of nuclear power by natural uranium supply, the method comprising the following steps: Step 1: Statistically analyze resource reserves and production capacity data for different cost ranges in operating mines; Step 2: Statistical analysis of the initial year's natural uranium production data; Step 3: Calculate the remaining resource reserves of the producing mine in different cost ranges at the start of the year; Step 4: Calculate the guarantee coefficient of the total remaining resource reserves of the producing mine in different cost ranges in the initial year for the uranium resource consumption required to ensure the development of nuclear power in the medium term; Step 5: Calculate the guarantee coefficient of remaining resource reserves in different cost ranges of producing mines for the uranium resource consumption required to ensure the development of nuclear power in the medium term, and analyze the degree of resource consumption guarantee for nuclear power development of producing mines at each cost range; at the same time, consider the regulating role of secondary uranium source supply. Step 6: Calculate the predicted total production of natural uranium under different production capacity scenarios; Step 7: Calculate the natural uranium production and corresponding natural uranium resource consumption under different production capacity scenarios in different cost ranges; Step 8: Calculate the guarantee coefficient of natural uranium production to natural uranium demand under different cost ranges and a certain production capacity scenario within the forecast period; Step 9: Based on the overall technical solution and calculation method described above, calculate separately for each production capacity from low to high capacity, and then explore the situation of natural uranium production from operating mines and the coordination of secondary supply under different capacity scenarios to ensure the supply of natural uranium needed for medium-term nuclear power development.

[0029] Step 10: Calculate the remaining resources at the end of the forecast period under different capacity scenarios for each cost range.

[0030] Steps 1 to 9 constitute the medium-term safeguard assessment, considering potential capacity expansion or technological advancements during 2023-2035. Based on the remaining resources of the mine in Step 10, a long-term (2036-2050) safeguard assessment will be further conducted. The specific technical solution is as follows: Step 11: Determine the remaining resource reserves of operating mines and production capacity data for each cost range in the starting year of the long-term security forecast, as well as the long-term nuclear power development natural uranium demand and uranium resource consumption data; Step 12: Calculate the remaining resource reserves, sustainable production time, and natural uranium production of the producing mine in each cost range during the long-term security forecast period; Step 13: Calculation of the medium-term surplus of secondary supply, without considering the increase in secondary supply brought about by technological advancements such as recycling technology and uranium enrichment; Step 14: Calculate the guarantee coefficients for the long-term nuclear power development of the remaining resources of producing mines, natural uranium production, and secondary supply surplus over the long-term forecast period (2036-2050).

[0031] Step 15: When the remaining resources of operating mines (including secondary supply) and the production of natural uranium cannot guarantee the natural uranium required for nuclear power development in the long-term forecast period, i.e., supply is insufficient to meet demand, the technical solution to fill the demand gap is the commissioning of planned mines and potential mines; the evaluation method for the comprehensive analysis of the guarantee of long-term nuclear power development by planned mines and potential mines refers to steps 1 to 10.

[0032] In step 1 above, statistical analysis is performed on the resource reserves and production capacity data of operating mines in different cost ranges, including statistical analysis of resource reserves and production capacity data of operating mines at 0-40 USD / kgU, 40-80 USD / kgU, 80-130 USD / kgU, and 130-260 USD / kgU up to the starting year (e.g., 2023).

[0033] In step 2 above, the data on natural uranium production in the initial year is statistically analyzed and converted into corresponding uranium resource consumption data at 70%. Then, the natural uranium resource consumption is allocated to the resource reserves of each cost range based on the share of the production capacity of the operating mines in the initial year and the different cost ranges.

[0034] Step 3 above calculates the remaining resource reserves of the producing mine in different cost ranges at the start of the year. This is the difference between the predicted resource reserves of the producing mine in the start of the year and the natural uranium resource consumption for that year, allocated to different cost ranges based on the annual natural uranium production. The formula is as follows: RRV / sy=RRV / sym–URC / syp(1) RRV / sy: Remaining resource reserves of operating mines in the initial year RRV / sym: Proven reserves of operating mines in the initial year URC / syp: Uranium resource consumption corresponding to the initial year's natural uranium production. Using the remaining resource reserves of operating mines obtained in step 3 as the benchmark parameter, the degree of security of natural uranium supply for nuclear power development is predicted in the medium term (2023-2035) and the long term (2036-2050).

[0035] In step 4 above, the guarantee coefficient for the remaining resource reserves of operating mines in different cost ranges at the start of the year to ensure the uranium resource consumption required for nuclear power development in the medium term (2023-2035) is calculated and expressed as a percentage. The calculation formulas are shown in equations (2) and (3): CNU / 2023-2035= DNU / 2023-2035÷70% (2) CNU / 2023-2035: Projected Total Natural Uranium Consumption for Nuclear Power from 2023 to 2035 DNU / 2023-2035: Total Projected Natural Uranium Demand for Nuclear Power, 2023-2035 GF-RRV=RRV / sy÷CNU / 2023-2035 (3) GF-RRV: Guarantee coefficient of remaining reserves in producing mines for uranium resource consumption. In step 5 above, based on the guarantee coefficient calculation method of formula (3) in step 4, the guarantee coefficients for the uranium resource consumption required for medium-term nuclear power development are calculated for different cost ranges, namely 0-40 USD / kgU, 40-80 USD / kgU, 80-130 USD / kgU, and 130-260 USD / kgU. The degree of resource consumption guarantee for nuclear power development by operating mine resources at each cost is analyzed. At the same time, the regulatory role played by secondary uranium source supply is considered.

[0036] In step 6 above, the predicted total output of natural uranium under different production capacity scenarios is calculated. The sum of the actual output of natural uranium in the predicted starting year and the predicted total output of natural uranium produced by the mine under different production capacity scenarios (such as production at 85%, 90%, and 95% capacity) during the prediction period is the predicted total output, which can be expressed as Equation (4).

[0037] MNUP / n%=MNUP / sa+MPC×n%×DFP (4) MNUP / n%: Forecast total natural uranium production from operating mines under different production capacity scenarios within the forecast period. MNUP / sa: Actual production of natural uranium in the expected cycle start year MPC: Forecast of mine capacity in the initial year n%: Percentage of production capacity under different scenarios, n=85, 90, 95... DFP: Forecast period (including start and end years), e.g., the forecast period for 2023-2035 is 13 years. In step 7 above, the natural uranium production and corresponding natural uranium resource consumption under different production capacity scenarios in different cost ranges are calculated. The predicted natural uranium production is allocated to each cost range based on the share of production capacity of mines in different cost ranges at the start of the year. If the uranium resources consumed by natural uranium production in a certain cost range under a certain scenario exceed the remaining resource reserves of the mines in that range at the start of the budget period, then the natural uranium production is calculated by back-calculating the product of all remaining resources at the start of the year and a 70% extraction rate. The calculation formula is as follows: CR / MNUP = MNUP / n%÷70% (5) CR / MNUP: Forecast total natural uranium production from operating mines under different production capacity scenarios within the forecast period, corresponding to the corresponding natural uranium resource consumption. MNUP / n1-n2 USD / kgU = RRV / symn1-n2 USD / kgU × 70% (6) MNUP / n1-n2 USD / kgU: The projected natural uranium production under a certain cost range and production capacity scenario, assuming all existing resources are produced within the forecast period. RRV / symn1-n2 USD / kgU: Remaining resource reserves of an operating mine in a certain cost range at the start of the year. In step 8 above, the guarantee coefficient of natural uranium production to natural uranium demand is calculated under different cost ranges and a certain production capacity scenario within the forecast period. The calculation formula is shown in equation (7). At the same time, the guarantee level is evaluated.

[0038] GF- MNUP / n%= MNUP / n%÷DNU / 2036-2050 (7) GF-MNUP / n%: The guarantee factor of natural uranium production to natural uranium demand under different cost ranges and a certain production capacity scenario. In step 9 above, based on the overall technical solution and calculation method, calculations are performed one by one from low-capacity production to high-capacity production, and then the production of natural uranium from operating mines and the coordination of secondary supply under different capacity scenarios are explored to ensure the supply of natural uranium needed for medium-term nuclear power development.

[0039] In step 10 above, the remaining resource quantity at the end of the forecast period under different production capacity scenarios for each cost range is calculated. This is achieved by using the difference between the remaining resource reserves of the operating mine in each cost range at the start of the forecast year and the uranium resource consumption corresponding to the production of natural uranium under different production capacity scenarios during the forecast period. The calculation method is expressed as follows: RRV / ey =RRV / sy- CR / MNUP (8) RRV / ey: Remaining resource reserves at the end of the forecast period (2035) under different production capacity scenarios for each cost range of operating mines. RRV / sy: Remaining resource reserves of operating mines in the initial year CR / MNUP: Forecast total natural uranium production from operating mines under different production capacity scenarios within the forecast period, corresponding to the corresponding natural uranium resource consumption. Building upon the medium-term security assessment, and considering potential capacity expansion or technological advancements during 2023-2035, a long-term (2036-2050) security assessment will be conducted. Firstly, based on potential technological advancements in natural uranium production over the 11 years from 2023-2035, a medium-term scenario of 95% capacity utilization of operating mines will be adopted, with remaining resource reserves at operating mines representing the remaining resource reserves as of 2036. Secondly, considering potential capacity expansion or technological advancements during the medium-term period, the mine capacity data will be 1.1 times the mine capacity data from the starting year of the medium-term period (2023). Thirdly, the extraction rate for converting natural uranium production into resource consumption will be changed from 70% to 80%. Furthermore, regardless of the capacity scenario, all natural uranium production during the 2023-2035 period requires the full release of secondary supply to ensure security. Secondary supply in 2036-2050 is assumed to be negligible, without considering the incremental secondary supply brought about by recycling technologies such as enrichment and conversion. Fourth, in 2036-2050, the global demand for natural uranium from nuclear power is approximately 1.5 million tU (using the forecast data published by Wang Cheng et al. in 2021), and the uranium resource consumption is approximately 2.14 million tU.

[0040] Step 11 above determines the remaining resource reserves of operating mines and production capacity data for each cost range in the starting year of the long-term security forecast, as well as the long-term nuclear power development natural uranium demand and uranium resource consumption data. The remaining resource reserves of operating mines under a 95% capacity scenario are used as the remaining resource reserves of operating mines in the starting year of the long-term security forecast. For operating mine capacity, considering possible capacity expansion or technological advancements during the medium term, the mine capacity data is 1.1 times the mine capacity data in the starting year of the medium term (2023). The extraction rate of natural uranium production converted into consumed resources is calculated at 80%.

[0041] In step 12 above, the sustainable production time of remaining resource reserves and natural uranium production in each cost range of the producing mine within the long-term security forecast period are calculated. Using 90% of the production capacity data, the predicted natural uranium production (unit: tons of uranium / year) and the sustainable production time of remaining resources in each cost range of the producing mine are calculated. 90% of the production capacity of each cost range is taken as the natural uranium production of that cost range. The quotient of RRV / ey and the production of 90% of the production capacity of each cost range is converted into the corresponding resource consumption and taken as the sustainable production time, in years. The calculation formula is as follows: NUP / n1-n2 USD / kgU = PA / n1-n2 USD / kgU × 90 (9) NUP / n1-n2 USD / kgU: Natural uranium production at producing mines within the forecast period. PA / n1-n2 USD / kgU: Natural uranium production capacity in various cost ranges CR / 90%PA = NUP / n1-n2 USD / kgU ÷ 80% (10) CR / 90%PA: The corresponding resource consumption calculated based on 90% of the production capacity in each cost range. LPT = RRV / ey ÷ CR / 90%PA (11) LPT: Sustainable production time of remaining resource reserves in each cost range of operating mines during the forecast period. If the production period exceeds the forecast period, it will be calculated based on the forecast period (e.g., if it exceeds 15 years, it will be calculated based on 15 years). When the resource consumption required for natural uranium production exceeds the remaining resource quantity within the forecast period, i.e., the forecast period is not met, the remaining resource quantity will be regarded as the production output, and all resources in the corresponding cost range will be mined out.

[0042] The calculation of the secondary supply surplus in step 13 above does not consider the incremental secondary supply resulting from technological advancements such as uranium recovery and enrichment. It uses the amount of uranium resources consumed corresponding to 90% of the production capacity during the medium-term forecast period (e.g., 2023-2025). The secondary supply surplus after supply-demand balance adjustment, i.e., the difference between the demanded uranium resource consumption and the uranium resources provided by primary natural uranium production, represents the amount of secondary supply used for adjustment. However, the secondary supply surplus after medium-term release can be ignored if it ensures that uranium resource consumption does not exceed 0.5%.

[0043] In step 14 above, the guarantee coefficients for long-term nuclear power development are calculated based on the remaining resources of operating mines, natural uranium production, and secondary supply surplus over the long-term forecast period (2036-2050). The calculation approach and method are the same as in steps 4 and 8 above.

[0044] In step 15 above, when the remaining resources of operating mines (including secondary supply) and natural uranium production are insufficient to guarantee the natural uranium required for nuclear power development over the long-term forecast period, i.e., supply falls short of demand, the technical solution to fill the demand gap is the commissioning of planned and potential mines. A comprehensive analysis of the guarantee provided by planned and potential mines for long-term nuclear power development is conducted, and the evaluation method refers to steps 1 to 10 above.

[0045] Example 1: Please see Figure 1 As shown, a quantitative evaluation method for the long-term security of nuclear power from natural uranium supply includes the following steps, and the calculation results are shown in Tables 2 and 3: Step 1: Statistically analyze the resource reserves and production capacity data of operating mines in different cost ranges.

[0046] As of 2023, the global reserves of operating mines with production costs below $40 / kgU were approximately 420,000 tU, with a production capacity of approximately 22,000 tU / year; reserves of $40-80 / kgU were approximately 630,000 tU, with a production capacity of approximately 28,000 tU / year; reserves of $80-130 / kgU were approximately 450,000 tU, with a production capacity of approximately 17,000 tU / year; and reserves of $130-260 / kgU were approximately 190,000 tU, with a production capacity of approximately 1,200 tU / year.

[0047] Step 2: Statistical analysis of the initial year's natural uranium production data.

[0048] In 2023, global natural uranium production was approximately 54,400 tU. Assuming a 70% conversion rate, this would require the consumption of approximately 78,000 tU of natural uranium. Based on the production capacity share at different cost levels in 2023 (0-40 USD / kgU: 32%; 40-80 USD / kgU: 41%; 80-130 USD / kgU: 25%; 130-260 USD / kgU: 2%), and allocating the 78,000 tU of uranium resources required for natural uranium production in 2023 to mine resources within different cost ranges, the following breakdown applies: 0-40 USD / kgU mine resources consumed approximately 25,000 tU, 40-80 USD / kgU mine resources consumed approximately 32,000 tU, 80-130 USD / kgU mine resources consumed approximately 19,500 tU, and 130-260 USD / kgU mine resources consumed approximately 1,600 tU.

[0049] Step 3: Calculate the remaining resource reserves of the producing mine in different cost ranges in the starting year. This is the difference between the predicted resource reserves of the producing mine in the starting year and the natural uranium resource consumption in different cost ranges for that year.

[0050] As of 2023, the remaining resource reserves of operating mines at different costs were approximately 395,000 tU (US$0-40 / kgU), 598,000 tU (US$40-80 / kgU), 430,500 tU (US$80-130 / kgU), and 188,400 tU (US$130-260 / kgU), respectively, totaling 1,611,900 tU of remaining resource reserves of operating mines.

[0051] Step 4: Calculate the guarantee coefficient of the total remaining resource reserves of the producing mine in different cost ranges in the initial year for the uranium resource consumption required to ensure the development of nuclear power in the medium term.

[0052] The uranium resource consumption data for 2023-2035 (CNU2023-2035) is based on the WNA's medium-term forecast data (2025-2035) in 2023, combined with the latest nuclear power development plans of various countries in 2023-2024, and adjusted for the corresponding countries. The predicted natural uranium demand for nuclear power from 2023 to 2035 is 1.07 million tU, and the corresponding uranium resource consumption for the medium-term nuclear power natural uranium demand (DNU / 2023-2035) is 1.53 million tU. The guarantee coefficient of the total remaining resource reserves of operating mines in different cost ranges for the uranium resource consumption required to ensure the medium-term nuclear power development is 161.19 ÷ 153 = 1.05, which is 105%, indicating that it can guarantee the demand and even has a slight surplus.

[0053] Step 5: Calculate the guarantee coefficient of remaining resource reserves in operating mines at different cost ranges for the uranium resource consumption required to ensure the development of nuclear power in the medium term, and analyze the degree of resource consumption guarantee for nuclear power development from operating mines at each cost range. Simultaneously, consider the regulating role of secondary uranium source supply.

[0054] The remaining reserves of operating mines with uranium resources at $0-40 / kgU can meet 26% of the uranium resource consumption for nuclear power development during this period; resources at $40-80 / kgU can meet 39%; resources at $80-130 / kgU can meet 28%; and resources at $130-260 / kgU can meet 12%. The remaining reserves of operating mines with uranium resources below $80 / kgU can meet 65% of the demand for nuclear power development during this period; resources at $80-130 / kgU can meet 28%; and high-cost resources will require an additional 12% of the resources. If only resources at $130 / kgU and below (approximately 1.42 million tU) are developed, 93% (1.42 million tU) of the resources required for nuclear power development from 2023 to 2035 can be guaranteed. The gap can be filled by secondary supply of 65%, and in this scenario, high-cost uranium resources can be avoided.

[0055] Step 6: Calculate the predicted total production of natural uranium under different production capacity scenarios.

[0056] The forecast begins with a total operating mine capacity of 68,300 tU in 2023. Natural uranium production varies under different capacity scenarios, assuming 85%, 90%, 95%, 100%, and 108% capacity. Under the 85% mine capacity scenario (which is essentially the current production scenario), the total primary supply from 2023 to 2035 is approximately 756,000 tU (2023 actual production + 2024 actual production + 68,300 * 0.85 * 11). Under the 90% mine capacity scenario (increasing existing capacity by 5%), the total primary supply from 2023 to 2035 is approximately 797,000 tU (2023 actual production + 2024 actual production + 68,300 * 0.9 * 11). Under the 95% mine capacity scenario (increasing existing capacity by 5%), the total primary supply from 2023 to 2035 is approximately 797,000 tU (2023 actual production + 2024 actual production + 68,300 * 0.9 * 11). With 10% of the mine's capacity, the total primary supply during 2023-2035 will be approximately 831,900 tU (actual production in 2023 + actual production in 2024 + 68,300 * 0.95 * 11); under the scenario of 100% mine capacity (increasing existing capacity by 15%), the total primary supply during 2023-2035 will be approximately 867,400 tU (actual production in 2023 + actual production in 2024 + 68,300 * 1 * 11); if operating mines increase their capacity to 108%, their total output could reach approximately 910,000 tU.

[0057] Step 7: Calculate the production of natural uranium and the corresponding consumption of natural uranium resources under different production capacity scenarios in different cost ranges.

[0058] For mine capacity scenarios of 85%, 90%, 95%, 100%, and 108%, the uranium resource consumption corresponding to natural uranium production of 0-40 USD / kgU, 40-80 USD / kgU, 80-130 USD / kgU, and 130-260 USD / kgU is calculated by dividing the production by 70%, and the results are shown in Table 2.

[0059] Step 8: Calculate the guarantee coefficient of natural uranium production to natural uranium demand under different cost ranges and a certain production capacity scenario within the forecast period.

[0060] Under the scenario of 85% mine capacity, the guarantee factor for the required natural uranium is 23% (approximately 243,000 tU) for the natural uranium produced by operating mines with a production rate of less than $40 / kgU, 29% (approximately 308,000 tU) for $40-80 / kgU, 18% (approximately 191,000 tU) for $80-130 / kgU, and 1% (approximately 14,000 tU) for $130-260 / kgU, which together can guarantee 71% of the natural uranium demand during this period.

[0061] Under a 90% mine capacity scenario, the natural uranium production from operating mines with a yield of less than $40 / kgU provides a guarantee of 24% (254,600 tU) of the required natural uranium; $40-80 / kgU provides a guarantee of 30% (approximately 324,400 tU); $80-130 / kgU provides a guarantee of 19% (approximately 201,000 tU); and $130-260 / kgU provides a guarantee of 1% (14,200 tU), which together can guarantee 75% of the natural uranium demand during this period.

[0062] Under a 95% mine capacity scenario, the natural uranium production from operating mines with a yield of less than $40 / kgU provides a 25% (266,700 tU) guarantee for the required natural uranium, while the guarantee for mines with a yield of $40-80 / kgU is 32% (339,800 tU), $80-130 / kgU provides 20% (210,600 tU), and $130-260 / kgU provides 1% (14,800 tU), which together provide 78% of the natural uranium demand during this period.

[0063] Under the 100% mine capacity scenario, considering that resource consumption below $40 / kgU would exceed the remaining resource reserves if production were carried out at 100% capacity, the resource consumption would be 395,000 tU (meaning all resources within this cost range would be mined out). The calculated production would then be 276,500 tU. Specifically, the natural uranium production from operating mines below $40 / kgU provides a guarantee of 26% (276,500 tU) of the required natural uranium, 33% (355,200 tU) for $40-80 / kgU, 21% (220,200 tU) for $80-130 / kgU, and 1% (15,500 tU) for $130-260 / kgU, totaling 81% of the natural uranium demand for this period.

[0064] Step 9: Based on the overall technical solution and calculation method described above, calculate separately for each production capacity from low to high capacity, and then explore the situation of natural uranium production from operating mines and the coordination of secondary supply under different capacity scenarios to ensure the supply of natural uranium needed for medium-term nuclear power development.

[0065] In the scenario of 85% mine capacity, the total production of natural uranium from operating mines can meet 71% of the natural uranium demand during this period, resulting in a supply shortage. Even if all secondary uranium sources are released (170,000 tU), the remaining supply-demand gap (314,000 tU) will still be approximately 144,000 tU. This will drive the expansion of uranium production below $80 / kgU in the latter half of the period, or promote the commissioning of planned mines to fill the gap, thus ensuring the development of global nuclear power during this period.

[0066] Under the scenario of 90% mine capacity, a total of 75% of the natural uranium demand during that period can be guaranteed, which is insufficient to meet the demand. The remaining supply and demand gap (approximately 273,000 tU) is still insufficient even if all 170,000 tons of uranium from secondary uranium sources are released, which, together with the primary supply, can meet 90% of the natural uranium demand. Further capacity increases or planned mine commissioning are needed to ensure this.

[0067] Under a 95% mine capacity scenario, the total supply can meet 78% of the natural uranium demand for that period, resulting in a supply shortage. Even if all secondary uranium sources (170,000 tU) are released, the remaining supply gap (approximately 240,000 tU) will still be around 70,000 tU. Therefore, increasing production capacity to 95% is insufficient to guarantee the natural uranium demand for that period; further increases in existing production capacity or the commissioning of planned mines are necessary to ensure supply. Under a 100% mine capacity scenario, this would guarantee 81% of the natural uranium demand during that period. However, even with the combined supply from secondary uranium sources, there would still be a supply-demand gap of approximately 30,000 tU. Furthermore, the increase in capacity would not significantly alter the overall production supply. Therefore, simply increasing capacity is insufficient to guarantee the demand during this period. Only by increasing the capacity of existing operating mines to 108%, with a total output of approximately 910,000 tU, combined with the 170,000 tU from all secondary uranium sources, could the natural uranium demand be just barely met.

[0068] In summary, from 2023 to 2035, the reserves of operating mines can guarantee 105% of the natural uranium resources needed for global nuclear power development, with a slight surplus. Operating mine reserves below $130 / kgU can guarantee 93% of resource consumption needs.

[0069] Under the current 85% capacity scenario, primary supply can only meet 71% of the required natural uranium production. The remaining gap, filled entirely by secondary supply, would meet 91% of demand, still leaving a shortfall. This will prompt mines to increase capacity or new planned mines to come online to adjust the supply-demand imbalance. Low- and medium-cost (<80 USD / kgU) uranium production accounts for approximately 52%, while medium- and high-cost (80-130 USD / kgU) production accounts for approximately 18%. Even if existing capacity is increased by 15% to 100%, and all low-cost resources below $40 USD / kgU are depleted, the combined primary and secondary supply can only guarantee 97% of the demand during this period. Only when capacity increases to 108% can the combined supply adequately meet demand. These projections are based on assumptions without considering technological advancements or breakthroughs in recycling and utilization. It is evident that relying solely on existing mines to increase capacity to meet the production needs of nuclear power development during this period will be extremely challenging. While the coordinating role of secondary supply is prominent, it will still be insufficient, making the possibility of planned mines or mine suspensions highly likely.

[0070] Step 10: Calculate the remaining resources of operating mines at the end of the forecast period under different production capacity scenarios for each cost range.

[0071] The remaining resources of producing mines are calculated based on a 95% capacity production scenario for natural uranium production in the medium term. As of 2036, the total remaining resources of producing mines are approximately 423,500 tU. Of this, approximately 14,000 tU are remaining resources with production costs below $40 / kgU, approximately 112,600 tU are remaining resources with costs between $40 and $80 / kgU, approximately 129,700 tU are remaining resources with costs between $80 and $130 / kgU, and approximately 167,200 tU are remaining resources with costs between $130 and $260 / kgU (Table 2).

[0072] Table 2. Overview of the impact of natural uranium supply on nuclear power security under different production capacity scenarios (2023-2035)

[0073] Step 11: Determine the remaining resource reserves of operating mines and production capacity data for each cost range in the starting year of the long-term security forecast, as well as the long-term nuclear power development natural uranium demand and uranium resource consumption data.

[0074] The remaining resource reserves of producing mines are based on the data determined in step 10; the mine production capacity data is 1.1 times the mine production capacity data of the mid-term starting year (2023). Among them, the annual production capacity of mines with less than $40 / kgU is 24,200 tU, the annual production capacity of mines with $40-80 / kgU is 30,800 tU, the annual production capacity of mines with $80-130 / kgU and $130-260 / kgU is 78,700 tU and 1,320 tU, respectively (Table 3).

[0075] Using publicly available forecast data, it is determined that the global demand for natural uranium from nuclear power will be approximately 1.5 million tons of uranium from 2036 to 2050, and the uranium resource consumption will be approximately 2.14 million tons of uranium (calculated based on 70% loss).

[0076] Step 12: Calculate the remaining resource reserves, sustainable production time, and natural uranium production of the producing mine in each cost range during the long-term security forecast period.

[0077] Natural uranium production calculations use 95% of the production capacity data, while also considering the sustainable production time of remaining resources in operating mines (over 15 years is calculated as 15 years). When the resource consumption required for natural uranium production exceeds the remaining resources, 80% of the remaining resources are converted into production, and all resources within the corresponding cost range are depleted. For example, if the remaining natural uranium resources at less than $40 / kgU are 14,000 tU, based on an 80% extraction rate, 14,000 * 0.80 = 11,200 tU can be produced. Producing at 95% of the 2.42 production capacity, that is, 24,200 * 95% = 23,000 tU / year, the sustainable production time for 11,200 tU under this scenario is calculated as: 11,200 / 23,000 = 0.49 years. Since it is depleted in less than a year, 80% of the remaining resources of 14,000 tU is used as the production, which is 11,200 tU, and so on. The remaining natural uranium resources at $40-80 / kgU have a sustainable production time of 3.08 years, and if depleted within the forecast evaluation period, the estimated natural uranium production is 90,080 tU; the remaining natural uranium resources at $80-130 / kgU have a sustainable production time of 5.84 years, and if depleted within the forecast evaluation period, the estimated natural uranium production is 103,760 tU; the remaining natural uranium resources at $130-260 / kgU have a sustainable production time of 106.67 years, and based on 95% production capacity, the estimated natural uranium production from 2036 to 2050 is 18,810 tU.

[0078] Step 13: Calculation of the medium-term surplus of secondary supply, without considering the increase in secondary supply brought about by technological advancements such as recycling technology and uranium enrichment.

[0079] Even if the primary supply capacity expands to 108% during the period from 2023 to 2035, the secondary supply can only supply 97% of the demand if it is completely consumed. Therefore, the secondary supply during the period from 2036 to 2050 is assumed to be negligible without considering the increase in secondary supply brought about by recycling technologies such as concentration and conversion.

[0080] Step 14: Calculate the guarantee coefficients for the long-term nuclear power development of the remaining resources of producing mines, natural uranium production, and secondary supply surplus over the long-term forecast period (2036-2050).

[0081] Looking at the remaining resources in operating mines, the remaining 423,500 tU of resources provides a 20% guarantee for the natural uranium resources needed for global nuclear power development from 2036 to 2050. The total natural uranium production provides a 15% guarantee for the natural uranium demand for nuclear power development during this period. The guarantee for uranium resources below $40 / kgU is only 1%, $40-80 / kgU is 6%, and $80-130 / kgU and $130-260 / kgU are 7% and 1% respectively. In a scenario where secondary supply is negligible, even if all operating mine resources are depleted, neither the quantity nor the quality of uranium resources and natural uranium needed for nuclear power development can be guaranteed. Therefore, filling the remaining 80% resource demand gap (approximately 1.72 million tU) and 85% production demand gap (approximately 1.28 million tU) requires more planned and potential mines to come online.

[0082] Step 15: When the remaining resources of operating mines (including secondary supply) and natural uranium production are insufficient to guarantee the natural uranium needed for nuclear power development over the long-term forecast period, i.e., supply falls short of demand, the technical solution to fill the demand gap is the commissioning of planned and potential mines. The logic of the comprehensive analysis of the guarantee level technical solution and calculation method is consistent with steps 1 to 10.

[0083] As of 2023, the world's planned uranium reserves totaled approximately 1.4429 million tons of uranium (tU). Of this, approximately 92,200 tU were reserves with production costs below $40 / kgU, 595,600 tU were reserves between $40 and $80 / kgU, 738,300 tU were reserves between $80 and $130 / kgU, and 16,800 tU were reserves between $130 and $260 / kgU. The guarantee coefficients for the natural uranium resource needs for nuclear power generation from 2036 to 2050 were 4%, 28%, 35%, and 1%, respectively, meaning the total planned uranium reserves could guarantee 67% of the resource needs for nuclear power development. It is evident that even if all existing planned uranium resources were used for natural uranium production, it would still be insufficient to meet the natural uranium resource needs for nuclear power development during this period in terms of quantity. The combined resources of producing and planned mines could provide 87% of the uranium resources needed for nuclear power development during this period, leaving a 13% demand gap (approximately 270,000 tU) that needs to be filled by potential mines coming online.

[0084] From the perspective of natural uranium production, if the planned mines operate at 85% of their capacity for natural uranium production, they can produce 997,200 tU of natural uranium between 2036 and 2050. The sustainable production periods for uranium resources at $0-40 / kgU, $40-80 / kgU, and $130-260 / kgU are 7.48 years, 14.16 years, and 4.39 years, respectively. All three resource ranges will be depleted in less than 15 years. Therefore, the production volumes for these three cost ranges between 2035 and 2050, calculated based on 80% of the resource reserves in each range, are 73,800 tU (with a demand guarantee factor of 5%), 476,500 tU (with a guarantee factor of 32%), and 13,400 tU (with a guarantee factor of 1%), respectively. Resources at $80-130 / kgU can be produced sustainably for 20.44 years, and at 85% capacity, this translates to approximately 434,500 tU of natural uranium (with a guarantee factor of 29%). Total natural uranium production can guarantee 66% of the natural uranium demand, and together with the existing mines, it can meet 81% of the natural uranium production during this period.

[0085] The planned mines will operate at 90%, 95%, 100%, 105%, and 110% of their capacity, respectively. Under the 85% capacity scenario, only the $80-130 / kgU resource remains unexploded within the projected period. Therefore, the production of uranium resources at other costs will be consistent with the 85% capacity scenario. Only the $80-130 / kgU resource production increases with the regular increase in capacity. The combined natural uranium production for each cost range can guarantee 68%, 70%, 72%, 73%, and 75% of the natural uranium demand, respectively, showing a regular increase of 2%. When the planned mines operate at 115% capacity, i.e., increasing production to 1.15 times the capacity, the $80-130 / kgU resource will also be depleted within 15 years. Under this scenario, the uranium production for different cost ranges can guarantee 77% of the natural uranium demand. The combined production from the above capacity scenarios and the output of the operating mines can meet 83%, 85%, 87%, 88%, 90%, and 92% of the natural uranium demand for those periods, respectively.

[0086] Between 2036 and 2050, constrained by the planned mineral resource reserves, increasing the production capacity of planned mines will not have a significant impact on the overall supply of natural uranium. Even if production is increased to 115% of the capacity and planned mineral resources are exhausted, and production is carried out in conjunction with existing mines, there will still be an 8% production gap (a gap of about 120,000 tU), which needs to be filled by potential mines.

[0087] As of 2023 (UxC, 2023), potential uranium reserves were approximately 534,400 tU, with approximately 24,400 tU of resources at production costs of $40-80 / kgU, approximately 421,300 tU of resources at $80-130 / kgU, and approximately 88,700 tU of resources at $130-260 / kgU. There were no low-cost uranium resources at $0-40 / kgU. The overall resource reserves provided a 25% guarantee for nuclear power development needs, with guarantees of only 1% for resources at $40-80 / kgU, 20% for $80-130 / kgU, and 4% for $130-260 / kgU. The combined reserves of operating, planned, and potential mines provided a 112% guarantee for the uranium resources needed for nuclear power development during this period, indicating a surplus.

[0088] From the perspective of natural uranium production, if potential mines operate at 85% of their capacity for natural uranium production, they could produce 416,900 tU of natural uranium between 2036 and 2050. Of this, resources at $40-80 / kgU could sustain production for 7.65 years under this scenario, with a production of approximately 19,500 tU (1% guarantee factor) (minimum depletion); resources at $80-130 / kgU could produce approximately 326,400 tU (22% guarantee factor) (undepleted); and resources at $130-260 / kgU could sustain production for 13.04 years, with a production of approximately 71,000 tU (5% guarantee factor) (80% guarantee factor). The total natural uranium production would provide a guarantee factor of 28% (minimum depletion) for the demand during this period. Only the $80-130 / kgU resource remains unmined under this production scenario. If all production from operating mines is combined (providing 15%), planned production from mines at 85% capacity (providing 66%), and potential production at 85% capacity (providing 28%), 109% of the natural uranium demand for that period can be secured. Production from mines with resources of less than $130 / kgU in each phase can also secure 103% of the natural uranium demand for that period.

[0089] If a potential mine produces natural uranium at 90% of its capacity, the remaining resources at $80-130 / kgU will also be depleted. In this scenario, 427,480 tU of natural uranium could be produced. The total production of natural uranium would then meet the demand at approximately 85% capacity, or 28%. In this scenario, all resources of the potential mine would be exhausted.

[0090] Based on the above analysis, to ensure the development of global nuclear power from 2036 to 2050, after the remaining reserves of operating mines are completely depleted, all planned mines and approximately 52% of potential mines will be needed to supplement the required natural uranium resources. The combined resources from operating, planned, and potential mines below $40 / kgU can only provide about 5% of the required resources; resources between $40-80 / kgU can provide about 34%; resources between $80-130 / kgU can provide about 60%; and resources between $130-260 / kgU can provide only about 13%. It is evident that resources at $80-130 / kgU will be the main supply during this period. Operating and planned resources will be depleted during this period, and with the remaining 52% of potential resources consumed, the quantity of uranium resources can basically guarantee the development of nuclear power during this period, although the overall security situation is relatively tight.

[0091] From the perspective of natural uranium supply, there is "pressure" on the production of natural uranium needed for nuclear power development during this period. The secondary supply forecast for 2023-2035 is estimated to be fully released in the medium term to ensure supply. There will be no surplus from 2036-2050 (not considering new additions). All resources need to be mined and produced in existing mines. Under the premise of not considering the discovery of new economically viable uranium resources, it is "impossible" to start the planned and potential mines into production. The "main force" of supply will be production at $80-130 / kgU, followed by production at $40-80 / kgU. Depending on different production capacity scenarios, this can basically guarantee the development of nuclear power. With the production from existing mines remaining at 15%, and planned and potential mines operating at 85% capacity, the combined output of these three sources can guarantee 109% of the long-term natural uranium demand. This would mean that all resources from existing mines would be exhausted, and all resources from planned and potential mines at prices below $80 / kgU and above $130 / kgU would also be depleted, leaving some resources in the $80-$130 / kgU range.

[0092] Table 3. Overview of the impact of natural uranium supply on nuclear power security under different production capacity scenarios (2036-2050)

[0093] For the parts of this invention not described in detail, please refer to the prior art or the art known to those skilled in the art. This embodiment does not limit these aspects and will not describe them in detail here.

[0094] The embodiments of the present invention have been described above with reference to the accompanying drawings. However, the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments described above. The specific embodiments described above are merely illustrative and not restrictive. Those skilled in the art can make many other forms under the guidance of the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the claims, and all of these forms are within the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating the long-term security of nuclear power supply provided by natural uranium supply, characterized in that, The method takes the combined supply of primary and secondary uranium sources as the core analytical dimension, while also considering both quantity and quality. It establishes an evaluation index system and, through a standardized evaluation process, achieves a comprehensive quantitative analysis and prediction of the degree of natural uranium resource security required for nuclear power development. The standardized evaluation process includes two evaluation processes: mid-term evaluation and long-term evaluation. The mid-term evaluation prioritizes assessing the security capabilities of operating mines, while the long-term evaluation, based on the results of the mid-term evaluation, conducts a comprehensive assessment in conjunction with planned and potential mines.

2. The method for evaluating the long-term security of nuclear power supply from natural uranium supply according to claim 1, characterized in that, The evaluation index system is divided into three levels. The first level index includes natural uranium demand SI1, uranium resource consumption demand SI2, primary supply SI3, secondary supply SI4, the remaining resource reserves of operating mines in the predicted starting year SI5, uranium resource reserves / uranium resource consumption demand SI6, natural uranium production / demand SI7, and the remaining resource reserves of operating mines after mid-term forecast SI8.

3. The method for evaluating the long-term security of nuclear power supply from natural uranium supply according to claim 2, characterized in that, The natural uranium demand SI1 includes medium-term and long-term natural uranium demand; the uranium resource consumption SI2 includes medium-term and long-term uranium resource consumption; the primary supply SI3 includes operating mine reserves, planned mine reserves, potential mine reserves, operating mine capacity, planned mine capacity, potential mine capacity, and remaining operating mine reserves; the secondary supply SI4 includes the first government reserves, re-enrichment tailings / insufficient supply, Western highly enriched uranium products, the second government reserves, and mixed oxide fuel+. Highly enriched uranium products; the predicted remaining resource reserves of operating mines in the initial year SI5 includes the predicted resource reserves of operating mines in the initial year and the predicted resource consumption of operating mines in the initial year; the uranium resource reserves / demanded uranium resource consumption SI6 includes the resource reserves / demanded uranium resource consumption of mines in different cost ranges for each mine status; the natural uranium production / demand SI7 includes the natural uranium production / natural uranium demand of mines in different capacity scenarios for each mine status; the remaining resource reserves of operating mines after the mid-term forecast SI8 includes the remaining resource reserves of operating mines under different capacity scenarios.

4. The method for evaluating the long-term security of nuclear power supply from natural uranium supply according to claim 1, characterized in that, The steps of the interim evaluation include: S1. Basic data statistics and remaining reserves calculation: Statistics on resource reserves, production capacity and natural uranium production in the starting year of different cost ranges of operating mines are compiled. The production is converted into uranium resource consumption according to the proportion and allocated according to the cost range. Finally, the remaining resource reserves of each cost range in the starting year are calculated. S2. Guarantee Evaluation from the Perspective of Reserves: Calculate the guarantee coefficient of the total remaining reserves of operating mines and reserves in each cost range on the medium-term uranium resource consumption, while also incorporating the moderating effect of secondary uranium sources and analyzing the guarantee contribution of resources at different costs; S3. Production Guarantee Assessment: Calculate and predict total production based on production capacity scenarios, allocate it to each cost range and convert it into resource consumption, calculate the guarantee coefficient of production for natural uranium demand under each scenario; analyze each production capacity scenario from low to high, and combine the coordination effect of secondary uranium sources to determine the medium-term production guarantee gap. S4. Mid-term Remaining Resource Calculation: Calculate the remaining resource reserves at the end of the mid-term forecast period under different production capacity scenarios in each cost range, and provide basic data for long-term evaluation.

5. The method for evaluating the long-term security of nuclear power supply from natural uranium supply according to claim 4, characterized in that, In step S1, the production output is converted into uranium resource consumption at 70%.

6. The method for evaluating the long-term security of nuclear power supply from natural uranium supply according to claim 4, characterized in that, In step S3, the total output is predicted based on capacity scenarios of 85%, 90%, 95%, 100%, and 108%.

7. The method for evaluating the long-term security of nuclear power supply from natural uranium supply according to claim 4, characterized in that, The steps of the long-term evaluation include: S5. Determination of basic data for long-term evaluation: The remaining reserves in the medium-term scenario are used as the starting reserves of the producing mines, and the production capacity is calculated based on a preset multiple that takes into account the capacity expansion and / or technological progress in the starting year of the medium-term scenario; and the recovery rate of natural uranium production converted into resource consumption increases; determine the long-term natural uranium demand and resource consumption. S6. Calculation of long-term production capacity and production time of operating mines: Calculate the annual production of natural uranium in each cost range according to the preset ratio of production capacity, calculate the sustainable production time of the remaining resource reserves, and back-calculate the actual production. S7. Determination of the remaining amount of secondary uranium sources: The determination does not take into account the increase in secondary supply due to technological progress, and ignores the long-term assumption of secondary supply based on the premise that the secondary uranium sources have been basically released in the medium term. S8. Calculation of Long-Term Security Coefficient for Operating Mines: Based on the calculation method of medium-term reserves and production security coefficient, analyze the remaining resources and production capacity of operating mines to meet long-term demand, and clarify the scale of the gap; S9. Assessment of Planned / Potential Mines to Fill the Gap: If the existing mines cannot meet long-term demand, follow the steps of the mid-term assessment to analyze the resource reserves of planned and potential mines and their production capacity under different production scenarios until the demand gap is filled and the long-term comprehensive security assessment is completed.

8. The method for evaluating the long-term security of nuclear power supply from natural uranium supply according to claim 7, characterized in that, In step S5, the remaining reserves under the 95% capacity scenario are used as the starting data for long-term evaluation.

9. The method for evaluating the long-term security of nuclear power supply from natural uranium supply according to claim 1, characterized in that, In step S6, the annual production of natural uranium in each cost range is calculated based on 90% of the production capacity.

10. A computer device, comprising: A memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that the processor executes the computer program to implement the content of the method for evaluating the long-term security of nuclear power supply based on any one of claims 1-9.

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