Operation system and program

Abstract

To estimate the occurrence of an anomaly in a power generation facility and to estimate the loss due to the anomaly.SOLUTION: An acquisition part acquires an actual value of a power generation amount of a power generation facility. An estimation part estimates the occurrence of an abnormal event using the actual value based on a characteristic of the power generation amount corresponding to a predetermined abnormal event occurring in the power generation facility. A power generation amount estimation part calculates an estimated value of the power generation amount of the power generation facility when the abnormal event has not occurred. A loss estimation part estimates an amount of loss due to the abnormal event by comparing the actual value and the estimated value.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to an operation system and a program. [Background technology]

[0002] Conventionally, there exists technology for a management system for solar power generation equipment that detects abnormal solar power generation equipment by collecting and comparing data on power generation from multiple solar power generation equipment installed in areas where the amount of solar radiation is considered to be the same (for example, see Patent Document 1). [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] JP 2011-147340 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] In Patent Document 1, it is possible to detect photovoltaic power generation equipment having an abnormality. However, the method in Patent Document 1 does not determine the cause of the abnormality. In addition, it does not determine the extent of loss caused by the abnormality.

[0005] The present invention has been made in view of the above circumstances, and has an object to estimate the occurrence of an abnormality in power generation equipment and to estimate losses due to the abnormality. [Means for solving the problem]

[0006] In order to achieve the above object, a power generation facility operation system according to one aspect of the present invention comprises: An acquisition unit that acquires a performance value of the amount of power generated by the power generation facility; an estimation unit that estimates the occurrence of a predetermined abnormal event using the actual value based on a characteristic of the power generation amount corresponding to the predetermined abnormal event occurring in the power generation facility; a power generation amount estimation unit for calculating an estimated value of the power generation amount of the power generation facility in a case where the abnormal event does not occur; a loss estimation unit that estimates an amount of loss due to the abnormal event by comparing the actual value with the estimated value; Equipped with. Effect of the Invention

[0007] The present invention is capable of estimating the occurrence of an abnormality in a power generation facility. Also, the present invention is capable of estimating losses due to the abnormality. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0008] [Figure 1] 1 is a block diagram showing an example of a configuration of a main part of an operation system according to an embodiment and components included in the operation system; [Diagram 2] 2 is a flowchart showing an example of processing by a processor of the operation device in FIG. 1; [Diagram 3] 2 is a flowchart showing an example of processing by a processor of the terminal device in FIG. 1; DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0009] Hereinafter, an operation system according to an embodiment will be described with reference to the drawings. Note that the scale of each part in each drawing used in the following description of the embodiment may be changed as appropriate. Also, for the purpose of explanation, each drawing used in the following description of the embodiment may be shown with the configuration omitted. Also, in each drawing and in this specification, the same reference numerals indicate similar elements. FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an example of a configuration of a main part of an operation system 1 according to an embodiment and components included in the operation system 1. The operation system 1 is a system that operates a power generation facility 200. The operation system 1 is capable of detecting an abnormality occurring in the power generation facility 200. The operation system 1 includes, as an example, an operation device 100, a power generation facility 200, and a terminal device 300. The operation system 1 typically includes a plurality of power generation facilities 200 and a plurality of terminal devices 300. However, the number of each device included in the operation system 1 is not limited.

[0010] The operation device 100, the power generation facility 200, and the terminal device 300 are connected to a network NW. The network NW is typically a communication network including the Internet. The network NW is typically a communication network including a WAN (wide area network). The network NW may be a communication network including a private network such as an intranet. The network NW may be a communication network including a LAN (local area network). The network NW may be a wireless line or a wired line, or may be a mixture of wireless and wired lines. The network NW may be a communication network including a dedicated line or a public mobile phone network.

[0011] The operation device 100 is a device that operates the power generation facility 200. The operation device 100 is, for example, a server device. Alternatively, the operation device 100 may be a PC (personal computer) or the like. The operation device 100 may be composed of a plurality of devices. The operation device 100 is capable of detecting when an abnormality occurs in the power generation facility 200. The operation device 100 includes, as an example, a processor 101, a ROM (read-only memory) 102, a RAM (random-access memory) 103, an auxiliary storage device 104, an input device 105, a display device 106, and a communication interface 107. A bus 108 and the like connect these respective units.

[0012] The processor 101 is a central part of a computer that performs processing such as calculations and control necessary for the operation of the operation device 100, and performs various calculations and processing. The processor 101 is, for example, a central processing unit (CPU), a micro processing unit (MPU), a system on a chip (SoC), a digital signal processor (DSP), a graphics processing unit (GPU), an application specific integrated circuit (ASIC), a programmable logic device (PLD), or a field-programmable gate array (FPGA). Alternatively, the processor 101 is a combination of a plurality of these. The processor 101 may also be a combination of these with a hardware accelerator or the like. The processor 101 controls each part to realize various functions of the operation device 100 based on programs such as firmware, system software, and application software stored in the ROM 102 or the auxiliary storage device 104. The processor 101 also executes processing described later based on the programs. Note that a part or all of the programs may be incorporated in the circuit of the processor 101.

[0013] The ROM 102 and the RAM 103 are main memory devices of the computer with the processor 101 at its core. The ROM 102 is a non-volatile memory used exclusively for reading data. The ROM 102 stores, for example, firmware among the above programs. The ROM 102 also stores data used by the processor 101 when performing various processes. The RAM 103 is a memory used for reading and writing data. The RAM 103 is used as a work area for storing data that is temporarily used when the processor 101 performs various processes. The RAM 103 is typically a volatile memory.

[0014] The auxiliary storage device 104 is an auxiliary storage device of a computer with the processor 101 at its core. The auxiliary storage device 104 is, for example, an EEPROM (electric erasable programmable read-only memory), a HDD (hard disk drive), or a flash memory. The auxiliary storage device 104 stores, for example, system software and application software among the above programs. The auxiliary storage device 104 also stores data used by the processor 101 in performing various processes, data generated by the processes in the processor 101, various setting values, and the like.

[0015] The input device 105 accepts operations by an operator of the operation apparatus 100. The input device 105 is, for example, a keyboard, a keypad, a touchpad, a mouse, a controller, etc. The input device 105 may also be a device for inputting voice.

[0016] The display device 106 displays a screen for notifying various pieces of information to the operator of the operation device 100, etc. The display device 106 is, for example, a display such as a liquid crystal display or an organic EL (electro-luminescence) display. A touch panel can also be used as the input device 105 and the display device 106. That is, a display panel provided in the touch panel can be used as the display device 106, and a pointing device provided in the touch panel that allows touch input can be used as the input device 105.

[0017] The communication interface 107 is an interface for the operation device 100 to communicate via a network NW or the like.

[0018] The bus 108 includes a control bus, an address bus, a data bus, etc., and transmits signals exchanged among the various parts of the operation device 100 .

[0019] The power generation facility 200 is a facility for generating solar power. The power generation facility 200 includes, as an example, a PCS (power conditioning subsystem) 201, a solar panel 202, a measuring device 203, a sensor 204, and a camera 205. The power generation facility 200 typically includes a plurality of solar panels 202. However, the number of the PCS 201, the solar panel 202, the measuring device 203, the sensor 204, and the camera 205 included in one power generation facility 200 is not limited. At least one of the measuring device 203, the sensor 204, and the camera 205 may be located outside the power generation facility 200.

[0020] The PCS201 is connected to one or more solar panels 202. The PCS201 has a function of converting the power generated by the connected solar panels 202 from DC to AC. The PCS201 has a function of outputting the power generated by the connected solar panels 202 to a predetermined electric system. The predetermined electric system is an electric system for selling electricity and an electric system for private use. The PCS201 has a function of controlling the connected solar panels 202. The PCS201 also has a function of suppressing output. The output suppression is a function of remotely controlling the power generation equipment to reduce the power generation output for the purpose of restricting the connection of the solar power generation equipment, etc. to the power system by the power company in order to maintain the balance of supply and demand of electricity. The PCS201 also has a function of measuring and storing various information of the connected solar panels 202. The various information includes, for example, various actual values ​​(measured values) such as the amount of power generation and the power generation output. The PCS201 measures and stores various actual values, for example, at predetermined time intervals. The PCS201 also has a communication function. The PCS 201 is connected to a network NW and communicates with each device via the network NW.

[0021] The solar panel 202 generates electricity by converting light such as sunlight into electricity.

[0022] The measuring device 203 collects data measured by each sensor 204 and images captured by the camera 205. To this end, the measuring device 203 acquires measurement data from each sensor 204 and acquires images from the camera 205. The measuring device 203 also inputs the collected measurement data and images to the PCS 201. The measuring device 230 may acquire various types of measurement data from external devices other than the sensors 204. Note that the PCS 201 may also function as the measuring device 203. The measuring device 203 is connected to a network NW. The measuring device 203 communicates with each device via the network NW.

[0023] The sensor 204 measures various types of data. Then, the sensor 204 outputs the measured data. The sensor 204 is installed, for example, at the installation location of the solar panel 202. The data measured by the sensor 204 is, for example, temperature, humidity, amount of precipitation, amount of snowfall, amount of snow accumulation, sunshine hours, amount of solar radiation, cloud cover, wind direction, wind speed, weather, etc. Therefore, the sensor 204 includes, for example, a thermometer, a hygrometer, a rain gauge, a snow gauge, a snow accumulation gauge, a sunshine gauge, a pyranometer, a cloud gauge, a wind vane, an anemometer, and a sensor for determining the weather.

[0024] The camera 205 captures an image. The camera 205 also outputs the captured image data. The camera 205 captures an area including the solar panel 202. The camera 205 may be a surveillance camera. The camera 205 may be a camera capable of capturing infrared light. Note that a moving image is a type of image.

[0025] The terminal device 300 is a terminal used by a manager of the power generation facility 200, etc. The terminal device 300 is, for example, a smartphone, a tablet terminal, a PC, or digital signage, etc. The terminal device 300 includes, for example, a processor 301, a ROM 302, a RAM 303, an auxiliary storage device 304, a communication interface 305, an input device 306, and a display device 307. A bus 308 etc. connects these respective units.

[0026] The processor 301 is a central part of a computer that performs processes such as calculations and control necessary for the operation of the terminal device 300, and performs various calculations and processes. The processor 301 is, for example, a CPU, an MPU, an SoC, a DSP, a GPU, an ASIC, a PLD, or an FPGA. Alternatively, the processor 301 is a combination of a plurality of these. The processor 301 may also be a combination of these with a hardware accelerator. The processor 301 controls each part to realize various functions of the terminal device 300 based on programs such as firmware, system software, and application software stored in the ROM 302 or the auxiliary storage device 304. The processor 301 also executes processes described below based on the programs. A part or all of the programs may be incorporated into the circuitry of the processor 301.

[0027] The auxiliary storage device 304 is an auxiliary storage device of a computer with the processor 301 at its core. The auxiliary storage device 304 is, for example, an EEPROM, a HDD, or a flash memory. The auxiliary storage device 304 stores, for example, system software and application software among the above programs. The auxiliary storage device 304 also stores data used by the processor 301 in performing various processes, data generated by the processes in the processor 301, various setting values, and the like.

[0028] The communication interface 305 is an interface for the terminal device 300 to communicate via a network NW or the like.

[0029] The input device 306 accepts operations by an operator of the terminal device 300. The input device 306 is, for example, a keyboard, a keypad, a touchpad, a mouse, a controller, etc. The input device 306 may also be a device for inputting voice.

[0030] The display device 307 displays a screen for notifying various pieces of information to the operator of the terminal device 300 or the like. The display device 307 is, for example, a display such as a liquid crystal display or an organic EL display. A touch panel can also be used as the input device 306 and the display device 307. That is, a display panel provided in the touch panel can be used as the display device 307, and a pointing device provided in the touch panel that allows touch input can be used as the input device 306.

[0031] The bus 308 includes a control bus, an address bus, a data bus, etc., and transmits signals exchanged among the various parts of the terminal device 300 .

[0032] The operation of the operation system 1 according to the embodiment will be described below with reference to FIG. 2 and other figures. Note that the contents of the processing in the following operation description are merely examples, and various processing that can obtain similar results can be used as appropriate. FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing an example of processing by the processor 101 of the operation device 100. The processor 101 executes the processing of FIG. 2 based on a program stored in, for example, the ROM 102 or the auxiliary storage device 104. FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing an example of processing by the processor 301 of the terminal device 300. The processor 301 executes the processing of FIG. 3 based on a program stored in, for example, the ROM 302 or the auxiliary storage device 304.

[0033] The processor 101, for example, periodically executes the process shown in Fig. 2. Alternatively, the processor 101 executes the process shown in Fig. 2 when an input is received instructing the processor 101 to execute the process shown in Fig. 2. Further, the processor 101 executes the process shown in FIG.

[0034] In step ST11 of FIG. 2, the processor 101 of the operation device 100 acquires the actual value of the power generation amount, various measurement data, and images from the PCS 201 or the measurement device 203 of the power generation facility 200 to be processed. The measurement data is, for example, data measured by the sensor 204. The image is, for example, an image taken by the camera 205. The processor 101 instructs the PCS 201 or the measurement device 203 via the communication interface 107 and the network NW to transmit the actual value, the measurement data, and the image. The PCS 201 or the measurement device 203 that has received the instruction transmits the actual value, the measurement data, and the image. The communication interface 107 receives the actual value. The processor 101 acquires the received actual value, the measurement data, and the image.

[0035] Therefore, by performing the processing of step ST11, the processor 101 functions as an example of an acquisition unit that acquires the actual value of the amount of power generated by the power generation facility.

[0036] In step ST12, the processor 101 executes the anomaly detection process using the performance value acquired in step ST11. The processor 101 may also execute the anomaly detection process using at least one of the various measurement data and images acquired in step ST11. The anomaly detection process includes a process of checking whether an anomaly has occurred in the power generation facility 200. The anomaly detection process includes a process of estimating the cause of the anomaly occurring in the power generation facility 200. The processor 101 executes the anomaly detection process using, for example, a trend in the performance value of the amount of power generated by the power generation facility 200. The processor 101 may execute the anomaly detection process using something other than a trend in the performance value of the amount of power generated.

[0037] The transition of the actual power generation amount during normal operation will be explained using the shape of a graph. Note that the graph here is a graph showing the actual power generation amount for one day by hour. A graph of the actual value of the amount of power generated on a sunny day has a mountain-like shape. For example, the vertical axis of the graph indicates the amount of power generated and the horizontal axis indicates time. The shape of the graph of the actual value of the amount of power generated on a cloudy day is significantly different from that of a sunny day, and it often has a meandering shape with large fluctuations in hourly units and many inflection points. Moreover, the graph of the actual value of the amount of power generated on a cloudy day generally has a smaller amount of power generated than the graph on a sunny day. The graph of the actual value of the amount of power generated on a rainy day has an even smaller amount of power generated than on a cloudy day, and is a graph that creeps along the bottom.

[0038] Next, the transition of the amount of power generation when an abnormality occurs will be explained using the shape of the graph. There are three types of causes of an abnormality, for example, a malfunction, some object blocking the sunlight hitting the solar panel 202, and output suppression. A malfunction of the power generation facility 200 is mainly a malfunction of the solar panel 202. Note that a case where the solar panel 202 is dirty is also included in the case where some object blocks the sunlight hitting the solar panel 202. Note that the classification of types of abnormality is not limited to those shown here. Each type of abnormality is an example of a predetermined abnormal event.

[0039] When the power generation facility 200 is out of order, the graph of the amount of power generation drops in a peculiar way, unlike normal times. Therefore, the shape of the graph during a fault is different from that during normal times, and the amount of power generation drops directly downward at the moment the fault occurs, and thereafter the amount of power generation continues to be less than normal times, or power generation ceases. Therefore, the amount of power generation at peak times during the day on sunny days is also clearly less than normal times. However, if there are any remaining parts that continue to generate power, the area (time integral value of the amount of power generation) will be smaller than that of the normal graph, but the shape will be similar to that of normal times.

[0040] The graph of the amount of power generated when the sunlight hitting the solar panel 202 is blocked by some object shows a peculiar drop in the amount of power generated, unlike normal times. For this reason, the shape of the graph when the sunlight is blocked by some object is different from that of normal times, and if it is the effect of a shadow, the deviation from normal times changes over time, and if there is dirt on the surface of the solar panel such as fallen leaves or bird droppings, the amount of power generated is constantly smaller, and the area (time integral value of the amount of power generated) is smaller than that of the normal graph. However, in the latter case, the shape is similar to that of normal times.

[0041] A graph of power generation when output is being suppressed shows a sudden drop in power generation the moment output suppression begins.

[0042] The processor 101 estimates that an abnormality has occurred in the power generation equipment 200 when the transition of the actual value of the power generation amount has a graph shape in the case where an abnormality has occurred in the power generation equipment 200 as shown above. The processor 101 also estimates that an abnormality has occurred in the power generation equipment 200 when the deviation width between the actual value of the power generation amount and the predicted value satisfies a predetermined condition. The processor 101 also estimates whether or not an abnormality has occurred in the power generation equipment 200 by performing image analysis on the image taken by the camera 205. For example, the processor 101 estimates whether or not an abnormality has occurred in the power generation equipment 200 by using the state of foreign matter such as fallen leaves and bird droppings on the solar panel 202 and the state of the shadow cast on the solar panel 202. For example, the processor 101 determines that an abnormality has occurred in the power generation equipment 200 when the amount of foreign matter is equal to or greater than a predetermined amount. For example, the processor 101 determines that an abnormality has occurred in the power generation equipment 200 when the area of ​​the shadow cast on the solar panel 202 is equal to or greater than a predetermined amount. If the area of ​​the shadow is equal to or larger than a predetermined value, it is estimated that there is an obstacle between the sun and the solar panel 202. The processor 101 may estimate whether or not an abnormality has occurred in the power generation facility 200 by using two or more of the above-mentioned graph shape, deviation width, and image analysis.

[0043] Furthermore, the processor 101 estimates that the power generation facility 200 is malfunctioning when the transition of the actual value of the amount of power generation has a graph shape in which the power generation facility 200 is malfunctioning. The processor 101 estimates that the sunlight striking the solar panel 202 is obstructed by some object when the transition of the actual value of the amount of power generation has a graph shape in which the sunlight striking the solar panel 202 is obstructed by some object as shown above. The processor 101 estimates that the output is being suppressed when the transition of the actual value of the amount of power generation has a graph shape in which the output is being suppressed as shown above.

[0044] The processor 101 uses, for example, past performance values ​​of the power generation facility 200 to be processed for the transition of the amount of power generation during normal times used in the abnormality detection process. Alternatively, the processor 101 uses performance values ​​of a power generation facility 200 different from the power generation facility 200 to be processed. The power generation facility 200 different from the power generation facility 200 to be processed is preferably a power generation facility 200 having conditions similar to those of the power generation facility 200 to be processed. The conditions include the installation location of the solar panel 202, the age or degree of deterioration of the solar panel 202, the model number indicating the type of the solar panel 202, and the weather at the installation location of the solar panel 202. The similarity of the conditions is, for example, a numerical value obtained by summing up the numerical values ​​obtained by quantifying the differences between the respective conditions. The processor 101 may sum up the numerical values ​​by weighting the respective conditions according to the importance of each condition. The conditions being similar means, for example, that the numerical value is equal to or less than a predetermined threshold value.

[0045] Furthermore, the processor 101 may execute the anomaly detection process using a trained AI (artificial intelligence), etc. Learning of the AI ​​for the anomaly detection process (hereinafter referred to as "anomaly detection AI") is performed, for example, by the processor 101 or a device other than the operation device 100. When the processor 101 uses an anomaly detection AI that has been trained by another device, the processor 101 acquires the anomaly detection AI from the other device. The other device may be included in the operation system 1.

[0046] For example, the actual values ​​of the multiple power generation facilities 200 are used as explanatory variables used in training the anomaly detection AI. The explanatory variables used in training the anomaly detection AI may include conditions at the time of power generation. The conditions at the time of power generation include the installation location of the solar panel 202, the age or degree of deterioration of the solar panel 202, the model number indicating the type of the solar panel 202, and the weather at the installation location of the solar panel 202. The conditions at the time of power generation may be any one or more of these. The conditions at the time of power generation may include other conditions. For example, the objective variable used in training the anomaly detection AI is information indicating whether or not each of the actual values ​​used as explanatory variables is in a state in which an abnormality has occurred in the power generation facility 200, and if an abnormality has occurred, what type of abnormality it is. Note that it is not necessary to use an objective variable in training the anomaly detection AI.

[0047] Furthermore, the processor 101 may execute the anomaly detection process by using a plurality of methods in combination.

[0048] As described above, the processor 101 functions as an example of an estimation unit that determines that an abnormality has occurred in the power generation equipment 200 and estimates the occurrence of a specified abnormal event using the actual value based on the characteristics of the power generation amount corresponding to the specified abnormal event that occurs in the power generation equipment.

[0049] The processor 101 also functions as an example of an estimation unit that estimates the type of abnormality in the power generation facility 200 based on the characteristics of the power generation amount and uses the performance value to estimate the type of abnormal event.

[0050] In step ST13, the processor 101 determines whether or not an abnormality has occurred in the power generation equipment 200 to be processed, based on the processing result of step ST12. If the processor 101 does not determine that an abnormality has occurred in the power generation equipment 200 to be processed, it determines No in step ST13 and ends the processing shown in Fig. 2. On the other hand, if the processor 101 determines that an abnormality has occurred in the power generation equipment 200 to be processed, it determines Yes in step ST13 and proceeds to step ST14.

[0051] In step ST14, the processor 101 estimates the amount of power generated by the power generation facility 200 to be processed, assuming that no abnormality has occurred in the power generation facility 200 to be processed. The processor 101 estimates the amount of power generated from the time when the abnormality occurred to the present (the processing time point of the process shown in FIG. 2), for example. The processor 101 estimates the amount of power generated from the time when the abnormality occurred to the present for each time period, regardless of whether the power selling price is fixed or variable. The power selling price may be fixed or variable, depending on the contract, etc. An example of a case where the power selling price is variable is when there is no power selling contract at a fixed price and power is sold on the wholesale power trading market on an individual basis.

[0052] The processor 101 estimates the amount of power generated when no abnormality occurs, for example, by using past performance values ​​of the power generation equipment 200 to be processed when it was operating normally. The processor 101 may estimate the amount of power generated by taking into consideration aging deterioration. Alternatively, the processor 101 estimates the amount of power generated when no abnormality occurs in the power generation equipment 200 to be processed, by using performance values ​​of a power generation equipment 200 different from the power generation equipment 200 to be processed. In this case, it is preferable that the processor 101 uses performance values ​​of a power generation equipment 200 whose conditions at the time of power generation are similar to those of the power generation equipment 200 to be processed. The conditions at the time of power generation include the installation location of the solar panel 202, the years of use or the degree of deterioration of the solar panel 202, the manufacturer and model number of the solar panel 202, and the weather at the installation location of the solar panel 202. The conditions at the time of power generation may be any one or more of these. The conditions at the time of power generation may include other conditions.

[0053] Furthermore, the processor 101 may estimate the amount of power generation that would have occurred if no abnormality had occurred, using the normalized amount of power generation of the solar panel (hereinafter referred to as the "normalized amount of power generation"). The normalized amount of power generation is the amount of power generation per unit area of ​​the solar panel for each condition, such as the manufacturer and model number of the solar panel. The processor 101 determines a normalized amount of power generation that has similar conditions to the power generation equipment 200 to be processed. The processor 101 then multiplies the determined normalized amount of power generation by the panel area of ​​the power generation equipment 200 to be processed, thereby estimating the amount of power generation that would have occurred if no abnormality had occurred.

[0054] Furthermore, the processor 101 may use a trained AI to estimate the power generation amount in the case where no abnormality occurs. The learning of the AI ​​for estimating the power generation amount (hereinafter referred to as the "power generation amount estimation AI") is performed, for example, by the processor 101 or a device other than the operation device 100. When the processor 101 uses a power generation amount estimation AI that has been trained by another device, the processor 101 acquires the power generation amount estimation AI from the other device. The other device may be included in the operation system 1. In the following description, it is assumed that the processor 101 performs the learning.

[0055] The explanatory variables used in training the power generation estimation AI are, for example, the conditions at the time of power generation. The conditions at the time of power generation are, for example, the installation location of the solar panel 202, the age or degree of deterioration of the solar panel 202, the model number indicating the type of the solar panel 202, and the weather at the installation location of the solar panel 202. The conditions at the time of power generation may be any one or more of these. The conditions at the time of power generation may include other conditions. Furthermore, the objective variable used in training the power generation estimation AI is, for example, the actual value of the power generation amount of the power generation facility 200.

[0056] Furthermore, the processor 101 may use a plurality of methods in combination to estimate the amount of power generation that would have occurred if no abnormality had occurred.

[0057] For the power generation equipment 200 determined to have an abnormality by the process of step ST12, the processor 101 does not use data such as actual values ​​during the period when the abnormality occurs as explanatory variables and objective variables used for learning the power generation amount estimation AI. Alternatively, the processor 101 may correct the data during the period when the abnormality occurs and use it as explanatory variables and objective variables.

[0058] The processor 101 may also estimate the power generation amount by normalizing the value used for estimating the power generation amount. The value used for estimating the power generation amount may be a value used by the power generation amount estimation AI, a past performance value of the power generation facility 200 to be processed, or a performance value of a power generation facility 200 under power generation conditions similar to those of the power generation facility 200 to be processed.

[0059] As described above, by performing the process of step ST14, the processor 101 functions as an example of a power generation amount estimation unit that calculates an estimate of the power generation amount of the power generation facility in the case where no abnormal event has occurred.

[0060] In addition, as described above, the processor 101 functions as an example of a learning unit that excludes actual values ​​when an abnormal event occurs from the learning data for generating a trained model used by the power generation estimation unit to output an estimated value of the power generation amount by not using data such as actual values ​​of the power generation equipment 200 that has been determined to have an abnormality in learning the power generation estimation AI.

[0061] In step ST15, the processor 101 estimates the amount of loss due to the abnormality in the power generation facility 200. The processor 101 estimates the amount of loss, for example, by the following formula. (Loss amount) = ((Expected amount of electricity sold if no abnormality occurs) - (Actual amount of electricity sold)) x (Electricity selling price) (1)

[0062] The expected amount of electricity sold when no abnormality occurs can be calculated, for example, by the following formula. (Expected amount of electricity to be sold if no abnormality occurs) = (Amount of electricity generated if no abnormality occurs) - (Actual value) (2) The actual value of the power generation amount here is the actual value of the power generation amount for the same period as the expected power sale amount if no abnormality occurs. The actual value of the power generation amount is, for example, the value obtained in step ST11.

[0063] When the power selling price fluctuates, the processor 101 calculates the loss amount by referring to the power price in the wholesale power trading market in each time period. The processor 101 refers to the power price in each time period for each predetermined time period, for example. The predetermined time period is, for example, 30 minutes.

[0064] The processor 101 can use, for example, any of the following (A1) to (A4) as the power unit price when the power selling price fluctuates. Of these, it is most preferable to use (A1). The processor 101 may use (A2), for example, when estimating the amount of loss simply. The processor 101 may also determine which power unit price to use depending on, for example, a contract for the sale of power. (A1) Area price of the spot market. Preferably, the area price of the area in which the power generation facility 200 to be processed is located. (A2) Spot market system price. (A3) A weighted average of the prices in the spot market and the hourly market. (A4) Electricity unit prices other than those listed above in (A1) to (A3).

[0065] The processor 101 calculates the loss amount for each time period using formula (1), and calculates the total loss amount by adding up the loss amounts for all time periods within the period for which the loss amount is to be calculated. The period for which the loss amount is to be calculated is, for example, from when the abnormality occurred to the present.

[0066] Furthermore, the processor 101 may calculate the loss amount by factoring in an imbalance fee that occurs when selling electricity in a wholesale electricity trading market or the like. In this case, the imbalance fee is an imbalance fee for an excess or deficiency of electricity relative to the planned submitted value. If the unit price of the imbalance fee has not been determined, the processor 101 uses, for example, a past unit price of the imbalance fee. Alternatively, if the unit price of the imbalance fee has not been determined, the processor 101 uses a unit price of the imbalance fee predicted using an AI or other program for predicting the imbalance fee. If the unit price of the imbalance fee has already been determined, the processor 101 uses that unit price. The processor 101 calculates the loss amount including the imbalance fee, for example, using the following formula. (Loss amount including imbalance charge) = (Loss amount above) + (Shortage of power generation actual result against the submitted value of power generation plan) × (Unit price of imbalance charge) - (Excess of power generation actual result against the submitted value of power generation plan) × (Unit price of imbalance charge) (3)

[0067] In addition, when the cause of the abnormality is a planned one, such as output suppression, the processor 101 preferably calculates the loss amount as 0 yen. Also, the processor 101 may exclude the period during which output suppression was implemented from the period for which the loss amount is calculated. As a result, the loss amount for the period during which output suppression was implemented becomes 0 yen.

[0068] As described above, by performing the processing of step ST15, the processor 101 functions as an example of a loss estimation unit that estimates the amount of loss due to an abnormal event by comparing the actual value with the estimated value.

[0069] In step ST16, the processor 101 determines whether or not measures should be taken for the abnormality occurring in the power generation facility 200. Here, the measures include maintenance, cleaning, repair, or replacement of the power generation facility 200. The processor 101 determines that it is better to take measures, for example, when the amount of loss if the measures are not taken for a predetermined period of time exceeds the cost of the measures. Alternatively, the processor 101 determines that it is better to take measures, for example, when the amount of loss if the measures are not taken for a predetermined period of time exceeds the cost of the measures by a predetermined amount or more. Alternatively, the processor 101 determines that it is better to take measures, for example, when the amount of loss if the measures are not taken for a predetermined period of time multiplied by a predetermined value exceeds the cost of the measures.

[0070] The processor 101 estimates the loss amount when it is assumed that no countermeasure is taken for a predetermined period of time, for example, by using the loss amount estimated in step ST15. The loss amount when it is assumed that no countermeasure is taken for a predetermined period of time is the loss amount from the present to the end of the predetermined period of time. The processor 101 may estimate the loss amount when it is assumed that no countermeasure is taken for a predetermined period of time, using AI or the like. The processor 101 estimates the amount of countermeasure cost based on the type and degree of abnormality. The amount of countermeasure cost may be predetermined, for example, depending on the type of abnormality. The auxiliary storage device 104 or the like stores the predetermined amount of countermeasure cost. The processor 101 acquires the amount from the auxiliary storage device 104 or the like. If the processor 101 does not determine that countermeasures should be taken for the abnormality occurring in the power generation facility 200, it determines No in step ST16 and ends the processing shown in FIG. 2. On the other hand, if the processor 101 determines that countermeasures should be taken for the abnormality occurring in the power generation facility 200, it determines Yes in step ST16 and proceeds to step ST17.

[0071] As described above, the processor 101 performs the processing of step ST16, thereby functioning as an example of a decision section that decides that measures should be taken to eliminate the abnormal event.

[0072] In step ST17, the processor 101 determines the timing for taking measures. For example, the processor 101 determines the timing for taking measures to be the day after the day when the amount of loss if no measures are taken exceeds the cost of the measures by a predetermined value. For example, the processor 101 determines the timing for taking measures to be the day after the day when the amount of loss if no measures are taken exceeds the cost of the measures by a predetermined value.

[0073] Furthermore, the processor 101 may determine the frequency at which a countermeasure should be taken. For example, in the case of an abnormality that occurs periodically, a countermeasure for the abnormality should also be taken periodically. Therefore, in such a case, the processor 101 determines the frequency at which a countermeasure should be taken. The frequency is, for example, predetermined for each type of abnormality. The auxiliary storage device 104 or the like stores the predetermined frequency. The processor 101 acquires the frequency from the auxiliary storage device 104 or the like. Alternatively, the processor 101 may calculate the frequency.

[0074] As described above, by performing the process of step ST17, the processor 101 functions as an example of a timing determination unit that determines the timing or frequency at which measures should be taken to eliminate an abnormal event.

[0075] In step ST18, the processor 101 generates an image corresponding to a countermeasure notification screen. Then, the processor 101 instructs the display device 106 to display the generated image. In response to the display instruction, the display device 106 displays the countermeasure notification screen. The countermeasure notification screen includes, for example, content indicating that countermeasures should be taken for the power generation facility 200, content indicating what kind of countermeasures should be taken, and content indicating the timing at which the countermeasures should be taken.

[0076] As described above, the processor 101, in cooperation with the display device 106, functions as an example of a decision notification unit that notifies the user that measures should be taken when the decision unit determines that measures should be taken by performing the process of step ST18. Alternatively, the processor 101 functions as an example of a decision notification unit by performing the process of step ST18.

[0077] Moreover, the processor 101 functions as an example of a time notification unit that notifies the time or frequency by performing the process of step ST18 in cooperation with the display device 106. Alternatively, the processor 101 functions as an example of a time notification unit by performing the process of step ST18.

[0078] In step ST19, the processor 101 generates proposal information. The proposal information is information that instructs the terminal device 300 to display a countermeasure notification screen. The proposal information includes information necessary for displaying the countermeasure notification screen. After generating the proposal information, the processor 101 instructs the communication interface 107 to transmit the proposal information to the terminal device 300. Upon receiving this transmission instruction, the communication interface 107 transmits the proposal information to the terminal device 300. The transmitted proposal information is received by the communication interface 305 of the terminal device 300. After processing of step ST19, the processor 101 ends the processing shown in FIG. 2.

[0079] 3, the processor 301 of the terminal device 300 waits for the proposal information to be received by the communication interface 305. If the proposal information is received, the processor 301 determines that the result is Yes in step ST21, and proceeds to step ST22.

[0080] In step ST22, processor 301 generates an image corresponding to the countermeasure notification screen. Then, processor 301 instructs display device 307 to display the generated image. In response to the display instruction, display device 307 displays the countermeasure notification screen. After processing in step ST22, processor 301 returns to step ST21.

[0081] As described above, the processor 301 functions as an example of a decision notification unit by performing the processing of step ST22 in cooperation with the display device 307. Alternatively, the processor 301 functions as an example of a decision notification unit by performing the processing of step ST22. Alternatively, the processor 101 functions as an example of a decision notification unit by performing the processing of step ST19 in FIG. 2. Alternatively, the processor 101 functions as an example of a decision notification unit by performing the processing of step ST19 in cooperation with the communication interface 107.

[0082] Moreover, the processor 301 functions as an example of a time notification unit by performing the process of step ST22 in Fig. 3 in cooperation with the display device 307. Alternatively, the processor 101 functions as an example of a time notification unit by performing the process of step ST22. Alternatively, the processor 101 functions as an example of a time notification unit by performing the process of step ST19 in Fig. 2. Alternatively, the processor 101 functions as an example of a time notification unit by performing the process of step ST19 in cooperation with the communication interface 107.

[0083] The operation system 1 of the embodiment acquires an actual value of the amount of power generated by the power generation facility 200. Then, the operation system 1 of the embodiment estimates the occurrence of an abnormality using the characteristics of the amount of power generated when an abnormality occurs and the actual value. Furthermore, the operation system 1 of the embodiment estimates the amount of loss due to the occurrence of an abnormality by obtaining an estimated value of the amount of power generated when no abnormality occurs. Therefore, by using the operation system 1 of the embodiment, the manager of the power generation facility 200 or the like can know the amount of opportunity loss caused by the occurrence of an abnormality in the power generation facility 200.

[0084] Furthermore, the operation system 1 of the embodiment identifies the type of abnormality by using the characteristics and performance value of the power generation amount when an abnormality occurs. As a result, a manager of the power generation facility 200 or the like can know the type of abnormality when an abnormality occurs in the power generation facility 200 by using the operation system 1 of the embodiment.

[0085] Furthermore, the operation system 1 of the embodiment uses AI to obtain an estimated value of the amount of power generation in the case where no abnormality has occurred. Furthermore, the operation system 1 of the embodiment does not use data such as the actual value of the amount of power generation of the power generation facility 200 in which an abnormality has occurred for learning the AI. This improves the accuracy of the AI. Alternatively, the operation system 1 of the embodiment uses corrected data such as the actual value of the amount of power generation of the power generation facility 200 in which an abnormality has occurred for learning the AI. This improves the accuracy of the AI.

[0086] In addition, the operation system 1 of the embodiment estimates the amount of power generation by using at least one of AI, past performance values ​​of the power generation facility 200 to be processed, and performance values ​​of other power generation facilities with similar conditions. This allows the operation system 1 of the embodiment to estimate the amount of power generation with higher accuracy.

[0087] Furthermore, the operation system 1 of the embodiment estimates whether or not measures should be taken when an abnormality occurs. This allows the manager of the power generation facility 200 or the like to know whether or not measures should be taken for the power generation facility 200 in which an abnormality occurs by using the operation system 1 of the embodiment.

[0088] In addition, the operation system 1 of the embodiment determines the timing or frequency at which measures should be taken when an abnormality occurs. As a result, by using the operation system 1 of the embodiment, the manager of the power generation facility 200 or the like can know the timing or frequency at which measures should be taken when an abnormality occurs.

[0089] The above embodiment can be modified as follows. In the above embodiment, the operation device 100 judges the occurrence of an abnormality and the type of the abnormality by using the shape of the graph. However, the operation device 100 may also judge the occurrence of an abnormality and the type of the abnormality by using a feature of the power generation amount other than the shape of the graph.

[0090] In the above embodiment, the operation device 100 performs the anomaly detection process using the power generation amount. The operation device 100 may perform the anomaly detection process using the power generation output (power generation amount per unit time) instead of the power generation amount.

[0091] The operation device 100 may obtain the actual value of the amount of power generated by the power generation facility 200 from a source other than the PCS 201 and the measuring device 203 .

[0092] In the above embodiment, the power generation facility 200 generates solar power. However, the power generation facility of the embodiment may be a facility that generates power other than solar power, such as wind power generation, hydroelectric power generation, thermal power generation, nuclear power generation, geothermal power generation, or the like.

[0093] The processor 101 may implement part or all of the processes implemented by the programs in the above-described embodiments by using a hardware circuit configuration.

[0094] The program for implementing the process of the embodiment is transferred, for example, in a state stored in the device. However, the device may be transferred without the program stored therein. The program may be transferred separately and written to the device. The program may be transferred, for example, by recording it on a removable storage medium or by downloading it via a network such as the Internet or a LAN.

[0095] Although the embodiment of the present invention has been described above, it is merely an example and does not limit the scope of the present invention. The embodiment of the present invention can be implemented in various forms without departing from the gist of the present invention. [Explanation of symbols]

[0096] 1. Operational System 100 Operation equipment 101,301 processors 102,302 ROM 103,303 RAM 104,304 Auxiliary storage 105,306 Input Devices 106,307 display devices 107,305 Communication Interface 108,308 Bus 200 Power generation facilities 201 PCS 202 Solar Panels 203 Measuring Equipment 204 Sensors 205 Camera 300 Terminal Equipment

Claims

1. An acquisition unit that acquires actual values ​​of the power generation amount of the power generation equipment, An estimation unit that, based on the characteristics of the amount of power generated corresponding to a predetermined abnormal event occurring in the power generation equipment, uses the actual values ​​to determine whether the occurrence of the abnormal event is a malfunction or something other than a malfunction, An operating system equipped with the necessary features.

2. The operating system according to claim 1, wherein the estimation unit estimates the type of abnormal event using the actual values ​​based on the characteristics.

3. The operating system according to claim 1, further comprising a decision unit that determines whether countermeasures should be taken for the abnormal event.

4. The operating system according to claim 3, further comprising a decision notification unit that notifies the decision unit that the decision unit should take the said measures.

5. The operating system according to claim 1, further comprising a timing determination unit that determines the timing or frequency at which countermeasures should be taken to eliminate the abnormal event.

6. The operating system according to claim 5, further comprising a time notification unit for notifying the time or frequency.

7. The processor installed in the operating equipment An acquisition unit that acquires actual values ​​of the power generation amount of the power generation equipment, An estimation unit that, based on the characteristics of the amount of power generated corresponding to a predetermined abnormal event occurring in the power generation equipment, uses the actual values ​​to determine whether the occurrence of the abnormal event is a malfunction or something other than a malfunction, A program that makes something work.

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