Production management system, production management method and production management program

Abstract

To provide a production management system, a production management method and a production management program.SOLUTION: A production management system comprises: an acquisition part for acquiring state data which indicates a state of a facility producing products; a detection part for detecting an abnormality of the facility on the basis of the state data; and a prediction part for predicting a restoration time required until the facility is restored, using model output which is output from a learning model according to input of the state data, when the abnormality of the facility is detected. The learning model is learned so as to output the restoration time according to the input of the state data.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a production management system, a production management method, and a production management program. [Background technology]

[0002] Patent documents 1 to 5 state, "The planned recovery time prediction unit 101 predicts the planned recovery time of each of the first drilling device A1, the second drilling device B1, the first welding device A4, the second welding device B4, the first screw tightening device A7, the second screw tightening device B7, the first painting device A10 and the second painting device B10 based on the measurement results of each of the first vibration sensor A2 to the eighth vibration sensor B11" (paragraph 0043 of Patent document 1), etc. [Prior art document] [Patent documents] [Patent Document 1] JP 2020-067927 A [Patent Document 2] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 02-284853 [Patent Document 3] International Publication No. 2009 / 144780 [Patent Document 4] JP 2016-126728 A [Patent Document 5] JP 2001-084035 A Summary of the Invention

[0003] In a first aspect of the present invention, there is provided a production management system comprising: an acquisition unit that acquires status data indicating a status of equipment that produces a product; a detection unit that detects an abnormality in the equipment based on the status data; and a prediction unit that, when an abnormality in the equipment is detected, predicts a recovery time required for the equipment to be restored using a model output output from a learning model in response to input of the status data.

[0004] In the above production management system, the learning model may be one that has been trained to output the recovery time in response to input of the status data.

[0005] The production management system may further include a model generation unit that generates the learning model by a learning process using the status data and the past recovery time as learning data.

[0006] The above-mentioned production management system, in which the learning model has been learned, may further include a model acquisition unit that acquires the learning model from a learning device that generates the learning model by learning processing using the status data and the actual recovery time as learning data.

[0007] In any of the above production management systems, the prediction unit may predict the recovery time by using a model output output from the learning model in response to input of the status data when an abnormality is detected.

[0008] In any of the above production management systems, the prediction unit may predict the recovery time by using a model output output from the learning model in response to input of the status data from when an abnormality is detected to when it is recovered.

[0009] Any of the above production management systems may further include a notification unit that notifies the recovery time to an integrated management system that integrates and manages a plurality of facilities related to the product.

[0010] In the above production management system, the notification unit may notify the integrated management system of the production rate of the product in the equipment before an abnormality is detected.

[0011] In any of the above production management systems including a notification unit, the notification unit may notify the integrated management system of the production rate of the product in the equipment from when an abnormality is detected until when the abnormality is restored.

[0012] In any of the above production management systems including a notification unit, the notification unit may notify the integrated management system of the production rate of the product in the equipment after recovery.

[0013] In a second aspect of the present invention, there is provided a production management method comprising: a computer acquiring status data indicating a status of equipment that produces a product; detecting an abnormality in the equipment based on the status data; and, when an abnormality in the equipment is detected, predicting a recovery time required for the equipment to be restored using a model output output from a learning model in response to input of the status data.

[0014] In a third aspect of the present invention, there is provided a production management program that is executed by a computer and causes the computer to function as an acquisition unit that acquires status data indicating the status of equipment that produces a product, a detection unit that detects an abnormality in the equipment based on the status data, and a prediction unit that, when an abnormality in the equipment is detected, predicts a recovery time required for the equipment to be restored using a model output output from a learning model in response to input of the status data.

[0015] The above summary of the invention does not list all of the necessary features of the present invention. Also, subcombinations of these features may also be inventions. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0016] [Figure 1] 1 shows a production system 1 according to an embodiment. [Diagram 2] The production control system 3 is shown. [Diagram 3] The integrated management system 4 is shown. [Figure 4] The operation of the production system 1 is shown. [Diagram 5] An example of a computer 1200 in which aspects of the present invention may be embodied, in whole or in part, is shown. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0017] The present invention will be described below through embodiments of the invention, but the following embodiments do not limit the scope of the invention according to the claims. Furthermore, not all of the combinations of features described in the embodiments are necessarily essential to the solution of the invention.

[0018] (System 1) 1 shows a production system 1 according to this embodiment. The production system 1 includes a plurality of pieces of equipment 2, a plurality of production management systems 3, and an integrated management system 4.

[0019] ((Equipment 2)) Each facility 2 produces a product. Each facility 2 may be a plant equipped with a plurality of devices, or a manufacturing apparatus that combines a plurality of devices. Examples of the plant include industrial plants for chemicals, biotechnology, and the like.

[0020] Here, the production system 1 according to the present embodiment may include a plurality of facilities 2 that cooperate with each other to form a supply chain 10. The supply chain 10 may produce products a, b, and c in stages from starting materials, and the upstream facilities 2 that form the supply chain 10 may produce products and supply them to the downstream facilities 2. The downstream facilities 2 may use the products produced in the upstream facilities 2 as raw materials to produce other products and supply them to the downstream facilities 2. In the present embodiment, as an example, each facility 2 may produce any one of the products a, b, and c that are distributed within the supply chain 10. The product c may be the final product of the supply chain 10.

[0021] The production system 1 according to this embodiment may include a plurality of facilities 2 each producing the same type of product. In this embodiment, as an example, the production system 1 may include a plurality of facilities 2 (also referred to as facilities 2a) each producing a product a, a plurality of facilities 2 (also referred to as facilities 2b) each producing a product b, and a plurality of facilities 2 (also referred to as facilities 2c) each producing a product c. Each facility 2a may supply the product a to the facility 2b, and each facility 2b may supply the product b to the facility 2c.

[0022] Each facility 2 may be operated by a different manufacturer and installed in a different premises. Each facility 2 may be provided with one or more sensors for measuring the state of the facility. The sensors may measure physical quantities such as pressure, temperature, pH, speed, and flow rate. The sensors may also measure the production amount and production rate of the product in the facility 2.

[0023] ((Production Management System 3)) Each production management system 3 manages one or more pieces of equipment 2 (also referred to as target equipment 2) to be managed among the multiple pieces of equipment 2 included in the production system 1, thereby managing the production of products at the target equipment 2.

[0024] Here, the production system 1 according to the present embodiment may include a production management system 3 (also referred to as production management system 3a) that manages equipment 2a, a production management system 3 (also referred to as production management system 3b) that manages equipment 2b, and a production management system 3 (also referred to as production management system 3c) that manages equipment 2c. The production system 1 according to the present embodiment may include a plurality of production management systems 3a that manage each of the plurality of equipment 2a, a plurality of production management systems 3b that manage each of the plurality of equipment 2b, and a plurality of production management systems 3c that manage each of the plurality of equipment 2c. Each production management system 3 may correspond one-to-one to each equipment 2 and may manage the corresponding single equipment 2. Each production management system 3 may be operated by the same manufacturer as the target equipment 2, and may be installed in the same premises as the target equipment 2. However, at least a part of the production management systems 3 may be provided on a network.

[0025] ((Integrated Management System 4)) The integrated management system 4 manages a plurality of facilities 2 related to the products. For example, the integrated management system 4 may manage a plurality of facilities 2a related to the product a, may manage a plurality of facilities 2b related to the product b, or may manage a plurality of facilities 2c related to the product c. Since the products a to c are related to each other as raw materials and products, the integrated management system 4 may manage a plurality of facilities 2a to 2c related to the product a, may manage a plurality of facilities 2a to 2c related to the product b, or may manage a plurality of facilities 2a to 2c related to the product c. In the present embodiment, as an example, the integrated management system 4 may manage the entire supply chain 10 via each production management system 3. The integrated management system 4 may be provided on a cloud, for example.

[0026] (Configuration of Production Management System 3) 2 shows the production management system 3. The production management system 3 includes an acquisition unit 30, a detection unit 31, a storage unit 32, a prediction unit 33, a transmission unit 34, a model generation unit 35, a reception unit 36, and a control unit 37.

[0027] ((Acquisition part 30)) The acquiring unit 30 acquires status data indicating a status of the target equipment 2. The acquiring unit 30 may acquire the status data from the target equipment 2. The status data may include measurement data measured by at least one sensor in the target equipment 2 to indicate the status of the target equipment 2. The status data may indicate the status of the target equipment 2 at a certain point in time, and may include measurement data measured at the certain point in time or within an error period thereof. The acquiring unit 30 may supply the status data to the detecting unit 31, the memory unit 32, and the control unit 37 every time the acquiring unit 30 acquires the status data.

[0028] ((Detection unit 31)) The detection unit 31 detects an abnormality in the target equipment 2 based on the status data. The detection unit 31 may detect whether or not the target equipment 2 is abnormal in response to the status data of the target equipment 2 being supplied from the acquisition unit 30, and may supply the detection result to the storage unit 32, the prediction unit 33, and the transmission unit 34.

[0029] The detection unit 31 may detect the target equipment 2 as abnormal based on the status data (also referred to as status data at one time) supplied from the acquisition unit 30 at a certain time, and then detect the target equipment 2 as normal based on the status data (also referred to as status data at another time) supplied from the acquisition unit 30 at another time, and may detect the time from the one time to the other time as the recovery time required for recovery. The recovery time detected by the detection unit 31 may indicate the actual recovery time. In response to detecting the recovery time, the detection unit 31 may store the recovery time in the storage unit 32 in association with the status data at least one time among the time points from the one time to the other time. As an example, the detection unit 31 may temporarily store the timestamp of the status data in which the target equipment 2 is detected as abnormal, and in response to detecting the recovery time due to recovery from the abnormality, may store the recovery time in association with the status data of the temporarily stored timestamp. It should be noted that the detection unit 31 does not need to detect the recovery time. In this case, when the operator of the production management system 3 confirms the recovery of the target equipment 2, the period from the above-mentioned certain time point to the current time point may be detected as the recovery time point and stored in the storage unit 32. The actual recovery time recorded in association with the status data may be used to generate a learning model 322 as learning data to be described later.

[0030] The detection unit 31 may detect an abnormality in the target equipment 2 using a classification model (not shown) that outputs a classification result of the state of the target equipment 2 in response to the supply of state data of the target equipment 2, for example. In the present embodiment, the classification of the state of the equipment 2 may be, for example, either a classification indicating normality or a classification indicating abnormality. The classification model may output a state index value (also called a health index) binarized with a value indicating that the state of the target equipment 2 is normal and a value indicating that the state of the equipment 2 is abnormal. The classification model may be trained using training data including the state data of the target equipment 2 and two values, a value indicating that the state of the target equipment 2 is good and a value indicating that the state of the equipment 2 is bad, and may output a state index value binarized by comparison with a threshold value. The classification model may be, for example, a support vector machine, but may also be a model trained using other algorithms such as logistic regression, decision tree, and neural network.

[0031] ((Storage unit 32)) The storage unit 32 stores various information. The storage unit 32 may store a data file 321 and a learning model 322. The storage unit 32 may further store a maintenance plan for the target equipment 2, a production cost of a product, and the like.

[0032] (((Data File 321))) The data file 321 stores the status data supplied from the acquisition unit 30. The data file 321 may store the status data and the acquisition timing thereof in association with each other. The status data of the data file 321 may store whether the target equipment 2 is normal or abnormal in association with each other, and in the present embodiment, as an example, the detection result of the detection unit 31 based on the status data may be stored in association with each other. Of the status data of the data file 321, at least the status data at the time of occurrence of the abnormality may be stored in association with the actual recovery time of the abnormality detected by the detection unit 31.

[0033] (((Learning Model 322))) The learning model 322 outputs a recovery time predicted to be required for the target equipment 2 to recover in response to the supply of status data when the target equipment 2 is abnormal. The recovery time may be measured in minutes, hours, or days. The learning model 322 may be trained to output the recovery time in response to the input of status data. The learning model 322 may be, for example, a support vector machine, but may also be a trained model using other algorithms such as logistic regression, decision trees, and neural networks.

[0034] ((Prediction unit 33)) When an abnormality is detected in the target equipment 2, the prediction unit 33 predicts a recovery time required for the equipment 2 to recover. The prediction unit 33 may predict the recovery time in response to the detection of an abnormality in the target equipment 2 by the detection unit 31. The prediction unit 33 may predict the recovery time using a model output output from the learning model 322 in response to the input of state data, and in the present embodiment, as an example, the recovery time as the model output may be the predicted recovery time. The prediction unit 33 may supply recovery time data indicating the predicted recovery time to the transmission unit 34. The recovery time data may further indicate the time point at which the abnormality occurred (as an example, the time point at which the abnormality was detected by the detection unit 31) or the current time as the start point of the recovery time.

[0035] ((Transmitter 34)) The transmission unit 34 transmits various information to the integrated management system 4. For example, the transmission unit 34 may transmit to the integrated management system 4 the detection result by the detection unit 31, that is, the detection result as to whether or not the target equipment 2 is abnormal.

[0036] The transmission unit 34 may be an example of a notification unit, and when an abnormality is detected in the target equipment 2, that is, when the target equipment 2 becomes equipment 2 in which an abnormality has occurred (also referred to as abnormality-occurring equipment 2), the transmission unit 34 may notify the integrated management system 4 of the recovery time by transmitting recovery time data supplied from the prediction unit 33 to the integrated management system 4.

[0037] When an abnormality in the target equipment 2 is detected, the transmission unit 34 may transmit production rate data indicating the production rate of the product in the target equipment 2 from the detection of the abnormality to the recovery to the integrated management system 4, thereby notifying the integrated management system 4 of the production rate. The production rate from the detection of the abnormality to the recovery may be included in the status data acquired by the acquisition unit 30, or may be predicted from the status data by the detection unit 31 or the prediction unit 33, and may be supplied from the detection unit 31 or the prediction unit 33 to the transmission unit 34. When the production rate is predicted from the status data, a learning model that outputs the production rate of the target equipment 2 in response to the supply of the status data of the target equipment 2 may be used. The learning model may be trained using learning data that associates the status data of the target equipment 2 with the production rate of the target equipment 2 indicated by the status data, and may be a model that has been trained using an algorithm such as a support vector machine, logistic regression, a decision tree, or a neural network. The production rate of the product in the target equipment 2 from the detection of the abnormality to the recovery may be the production amount per unit time (for example, one hour or one day) that is maintained until the recovery. The production rate of the product in the target equipment 2 from the detection of the abnormality to recovery may be a value equal to or greater than 0, may be 0 when the target equipment 2 is unable to produce due to the occurrence of an abnormality, and may be a value greater than 0 when production can continue in a part of the target equipment 2. The production rate of the product in the target equipment 2 may be the production rate of the product (also called the target product) that is distributed in the supply chain 10 among the products produced by the target equipment 2, and may be the production rate of product a when the target equipment 2 is equipment 2a, may be the production rate of product b when the target equipment 2 is equipment 2b, and may be the production rate of product c when the target equipment 2 is equipment 2c.

[0038] When recovery of the target equipment 2 is detected, that is, when it is detected that the target equipment 2 has returned to a normal state after an abnormality has been detected, the transmission unit 34 may transmit production rate data indicating the production rate of the target product in the target equipment 2 after recovery to the integrated management system 4, thereby notifying the integrated management system 4 of the production rate. The production rate after recovery may be a production rate per unit time that is maintained after recovery. The production rate after recovery may be the same as the production rate before the abnormality is detected (for example, the production rate in a pre-set production plan) or may be different. When the production rate after recovery is the same as the production rate before the abnormality is detected, the production rate may be acquired from the production plan. When the production rate after recovery is different from the production rate before the abnormality is detected, the production rate may be included in the status data acquired by the acquisition unit 30, or may be predicted from the status data by the detection unit 31 or the prediction unit 33, and may be supplied from the detection unit 31 or the prediction unit 33 to the transmission unit 34.

[0039] When no abnormality is detected in the target equipment 2, that is, when the target equipment 2 is normal equipment 2 (also referred to as normal equipment 2), the transmitting unit 34 may transmit production condition data indicating the production conditions of the target equipment 2 to the integrated management system 4 in response to a request from the integrated management system 4. When the receiving unit 36 ​​receives a request message for production condition data, the transmitting unit 34 may transmit production condition data supplied from a control unit 37 described below to the integrated management system 4. The production conditions and production condition data will be described in detail later.

[0040] (Model Generation Unit 35) The model generation unit 35 generates the learning model 322 by a learning process using the state data and the recovery time as learning data. The model generation unit 35 may perform the learning process using learning data in which state data at the time of occurrence of an abnormality is associated with the recovery time of the abnormality. In the present embodiment, as an example, the model generation unit 35 may use the state data and the recovery time stored in association with the data file 321 as learning data. The model generation unit 35 may generate the learning model 322 by a conventionally known learning algorithm, and may store the generated learning model 322 in the storage unit 32.

[0041] ((Receiving unit 36)) The receiving unit 36 ​​receives various messages transmitted from the integrated management system 4. The receiving unit 36 ​​may receive a message instructing adjustment of the production volume in the target equipment 2 and a message requesting production condition data in the target equipment 2. The receiving unit 36 ​​may supply the received message to the control unit 37.

[0042] ((Control unit 37)) The control unit 37 may control each unit of the production management system 3 and may also control the target equipment 2. For example, in response to a message requesting production condition data being supplied from the receiving unit 36, the control unit 37 may generate production condition data indicating the production conditions of the target equipment 2 and cause the transmitting unit 34 to transmit the data to the integrated management system 4. The request message may be transmitted to the production management system 3 of the normal equipment 2 in response to an abnormality occurring in the target equipment 2 of another production management system 3, and may include recovery time data indicating a predicted recovery time and a time point when the abnormality occurred, and identification information indicating the type of the target product produced by the abnormal equipment 2. The control unit 37 may generate the production condition data from the status data acquired by the acquiring unit 30 and various information stored in the storage unit 32.

[0043] Here, the production condition data may indicate the production conditions of the target equipment 2 during the period from the occurrence of the abnormality to the end of the recovery time (also referred to as the predicted period until recovery).

[0044] The production conditions may include the possible increase in production amount of the target product in the target equipment 2 (here, the normal equipment 2). The possible increase in production amount may be the total amount of the target product that can be increased within the predicted period until recovery. The possible increase in production amount may be determined according to the production capacity of the equipment 2, the amount of raw materials stockpiled in the equipment 2, or the supply speed and timing of raw materials to the equipment 2. The possible increase in production amount may be determined without taking into account the maintenance plan for the equipment 2.

[0045] The production conditions may include the operation rate of the target equipment 2 (here, normal equipment 2). The operation rate may be the actual operation time relative to the maximum operation time (e.g., the number of days) within a reference period (e.g., one month), and may be independent of the type of product. For example, if equipment 2 is capable of producing a first product supplied to equipment 2 downstream in the supply chain 10 and a second product unrelated to the supply chain 10, and produces the first product using half of the maximum operation time and the second product using the remaining half, the operation rate of equipment 2 may be 100%. Note that the operation rate may be the operating rate. The operation rate may exceed 100%.

[0046] The production conditions may include a maintenance plan for the target equipment 2 (here, normal equipment 2). The maintenance plan may include a start time and an end time of the maintenance, a maximum production amount of the target product during the maintenance, and a maximum operation rate. The maximum production amount of the target product during the maintenance may be a maximum value of the total amount of the target product that can be produced during the maintenance.

[0047] The production conditions may include the production cost at the target equipment 2 (here, normal equipment 2). The production cost may be the cost required to produce the target product. The production cost may include the shipping cost of shipping the target product to the destination. The destination may be equipment 2 downstream in the supply chain 10 from the source equipment 2. The shipping cost may be the cost required to deliver the target product from the source equipment 2 to the destination equipment 2, and may include the transportation cost from the source equipment 2 to the destination equipment 2.

[0048] The control unit 37 may control the target equipment 2 (here, the normal equipment 2 or the abnormal equipment 2) based on the status data acquired by the acquisition unit 30. In response to a message instructing adjustment of the production volume in the target equipment 2 being supplied from the receiving unit 36, the control unit 37 may control the target equipment 2 so as to realize the increase or decrease in production volume indicated in the message. The control unit 37 may determine the control content for the target equipment 2, and supply the target equipment 2 with a control signal according to the control content.

[0049] According to the above-described production control system 3, when an abnormality is detected in the target equipment 2, the recovery time is predicted using the model output output from the learning model 322 in response to the input of status data, so that the recovery time can be predicted with high accuracy in accordance with the actual situation.

[0050] Furthermore, since the learning model 322 is trained to output a recovery time in response to input of state data, the configuration of the prediction unit 33 that predicts the recovery time can be simplified.

[0051] Furthermore, since the learning model 322 is generated by the model generation unit 35 through a learning process using the status data and past recovery times as learning data, it is possible to acquire a recovery time that is suited to the actual situation.

[0052] Furthermore, since the recovery time is notified to the integrated management system 4, it is possible to appropriately manage a plurality of pieces of equipment 2 related to the target product.

[0053] In addition, since the production rate of the target product from when the abnormality is detected until recovery is notified to the integrated control system 4, the integrated control system 4 can easily adjust the production of the target product until recovery.

[0054] Furthermore, since the production speed of the target product after recovery is notified to the integrated management system, the integrated management system 4 can easily adjust the production of the target product after recovery.

[0055] (Configuration of Integrated Management System 4) 3 shows the integrated management system 4. The integrated management system 4 includes a receiving unit 40, a predicting unit 41, a determining unit 42, and a transmitting unit 43.

[0056] ((Receiving unit 40)) The receiving unit 40 receives production condition data indicating production conditions for normal equipment 2 that is different from the abnormal equipment 2 among the multiple equipment 2. The receiving unit 40 may receive the production condition data from the production management system 3 of each normal equipment 2 that produces the same type of target product as the abnormal equipment 2. The receiving unit 40 may receive the production condition data for each of the multiple normal equipment 2 that produce the target product. The production condition data may be transmitted to the integrated management system 4 in response to a request message for production condition data being transmitted from the transmitting unit 43 described below to the production management system 3. The receiving unit 40 may supply the received production condition data to the determining unit 42.

[0057] The receiving unit 40 may be an example of an acquiring unit, and may acquire recovery time data indicating a predicted recovery time required for the abnormality-occurring equipment 2 to recover when an abnormality occurs in one equipment 2 among the multiple equipments 2, that is, when the one equipment 2 becomes the abnormality-occurring equipment 2. The receiving unit 40 may acquire the recovery time data from a production management system 3 that manages production in the abnormality-occurring equipment 2.

[0058] The receiving unit 40 may acquire production speed data indicating the production speed (i.e., production volume per unit time) of the target product in the abnormality occurring equipment 2 from when the abnormality is detected to when the abnormality is restored from the production management system 3 of the abnormality occurring equipment 2. The receiving unit 40 may further acquire production speed data indicating the production speed of the target product after restoration from the abnormality occurring equipment 2. The production speed data may include identification information indicating the type of the target product.

[0059] The receiving unit 40 may further acquire a detection result indicating whether or not there is an abnormality from the production management system 3 of each facility 2. The receiving unit 40 may supply the detection result, recovery time data, and production speed data to the predicting unit 41. The receiving unit 40 may supply the recovery time data and identification information indicating the type of the target product to the transmitting unit 43.

[0060] ((Prediction unit 41)) The prediction unit 41 predicts the reduced production amount of the product in the abnormal equipment 2 by using the recovery time data. The prediction unit 41 may predict the reduced production amount of the target product to be supplied to the downstream equipment 2 in the supply chain 10. The reduced production amount may be the total amount of the target product that is reduced due to the abnormality during the predicted period until recovery indicated by the recovery time data. The reduced production amount may be the reduction amount from the production amount planned during the predicted period until recovery in a production plan (annual plan or monthly plan, for example) that is preset based on a demand forecast.

[0061] The prediction unit 41 may multiply the recovery time indicated by the recovery time data by the production rate indicated by the production rate data until recovery in the abnormal equipment 2, thereby calculating the total amount of the target product to be produced in the abnormal equipment 2 within the predicted period until recovery. The prediction unit 41 may predict, as the production reduction amount, a value obtained by subtracting the calculated total amount of the target product from the planned production amount within the predicted period until recovery. The prediction unit 41 may supply production reduction amount data indicating the predicted production reduction amount to the determination unit 42.

[0062] ((Decision unit 42)) The determination unit 42 determines the increased production amount of the target product in the normal equipment 2 based on the reduced production amount and the production condition data indicating the production conditions in the normal equipment 2. The determination unit 42 may determine the increased production amount in the normal equipment 2 indicated by the production condition data based on the reduced production amount in the abnormal equipment 2 predicted by the prediction unit 41 and the production condition data of the normal equipment 2 received by the receiving unit 40. When the production condition data is received for each of the multiple normal equipment 2, the determination unit 42 may determine the increased production amount for each of the normal equipment 2. Note that, as an example, in the present embodiment, the increased production amount may be an increase from the production amount planned in the predicted period until recovery in the production plan, and may be an increased production amount to be realized within the predicted period. The determination unit 42 may determine the increased production amount so that the reduced production amount predicted by the prediction unit 41 and the total amount of increased production by each normal equipment 2 are the same. The determination unit 42 may determine the increased production amount in each normal equipment 2 to be the same amount or different amounts.

[0063] The determination unit 42 may determine the increased production amount for each normal equipment 2 based on the increased production amount of the target product in each normal equipment 2. The determination unit 42 may set the increased production amount of the target product in each normal equipment 2 to be equal to or less than the increased production amount of the target product in the normal equipment 2. The determination unit 42 may determine the increased production amount of each normal equipment 2 such that the normal equipment 2 with a larger increased production amount has a larger increased production amount. The determination unit 42 may determine the increased production amount of each normal equipment 2 by setting the total amount of increased production amounts corresponding to the predicted reduced production amounts to 100% and allocating the total amount according to the ratio of the increased production amounts of each normal equipment 2. As an example, when the increased production amounts of three normal equipment 2 are represented in a ratio of 20:30:50, the determination unit 42 may determine the increased production amount of each normal equipment 2 by allocating the total amount of increased production amounts, 100%, in a ratio of 20:30:50.

[0064] The determination unit 42 may determine the increased production amount for each normally operating equipment 2 based on the operation rate of each normally operating equipment 2. The determination unit 42 may determine the increased production amount of the target product in each normally operating equipment 2 such that the operation rate of the normally operating equipment 2 does not exceed a reference operation rate (100%, for example).

[0065] The amount of change in the operation rate and the amount of change in the production rate when adjusting the production rate of the target product by changing the operation rate may show a proportional relationship, and the determination unit 42 may store in advance a proportional constant between the operation rate and the production rate for each equipment 2. The determination unit 42 may determine the increased production amount of each normal equipment 2 so that the increased production amount is larger for normal equipment 2 having a larger margin width (also referred to as the margin width of the operation rate) from the operation rate to the reference operation rate, that is, the increased production amount is larger for normal equipment 2 having a lower operation rate, or may determine the increased production amount of each normal equipment 2 so that the increased production amount is larger for normal equipment 2 having a higher operation rate. As an example, the determination unit 42 may use a proportional constant between the operation rate and the production rate of each normal equipment 2 to calculate a provisional increased production amount of the target product for each normal equipment 2 each time the operation rate of the normal equipment 2 is increased by the reference amount up to the reference operation rate in order of the largest margin width of the operation rate (or the highest operation rate), and determine whether or not the total amount of the provisional increased production amount matches the predicted reduced production amount. The determination unit 42 may determine, as the increased production amount of each normally functioning equipment 2, the tentative increased production amount of each normally functioning equipment 2 when the total amount of the tentative increased production amounts matches the reduced production amount.

[0066] Alternatively, the determination unit 42 may use the result of multiplying the proportional constant of the operation rate and production volume by the margin width of the operation rate for each piece of normally functioning equipment 2 as the possible increase in production amount of the target product for each piece of equipment 2. In this case, the determination unit 42 may determine the increase in production amount of each piece of normally functioning equipment 2 based on the possible increase in production amount of each piece of normally functioning equipment 2 as described above.

[0067] The determination unit 42 may determine the increased production amount for each normal equipment 2 based on the maintenance plan for each normal equipment 2. The maintenance plan may include the start and end times of the maintenance, the maximum production amount of the target product during the maintenance, and the maximum operation rate. The determination unit 42 may exclude the normal equipment 2 for which maintenance will be performed during the predicted period until recovery, and determine the increased production amount only for the normal equipment 2 for which no maintenance will be performed. The determination unit 42 may determine the increased production amount for each normal equipment 2 based on the maintenance plan and the possible increased production amount or the operation rate. For example, in response to the fact that maintenance will be performed on one normal equipment 2 during the predicted period until recovery, the determination unit 42 may determine the increased production amount of the target product during maintenance for the normal equipment 2 to be equal to or less than the maximum production amount indicated in the maintenance plan, or may determine the operation rate during maintenance to be equal to or less than the maximum operation rate indicated in the maintenance plan.

[0068] The determination unit 42 may determine the increased production amount for each normal equipment 2 based on the production cost of the target product in each normal equipment 2. The determination unit 42 may determine the increased production amount only for normal equipment 2 whose production cost is lower than the reference cost. The determination unit 42 may determine the increased production amount for each normal equipment 2 based on the production cost and the possible increased production amount. For example, the determination unit 42 may calculate the total amount of the provisional increased production amount of the target product in each normal equipment 2 each time the provisional increased production amount is increased by the reference amount up to the possible increased production amount, starting from the normal equipment 2 with the lowest production cost, and determine the provisional increased production amount of each normal equipment 2 when the total amount matches the predicted reduced production amount as the increased production amount of the normal equipment 2. The determination unit 42 may determine the increased production amount for each normal equipment 2 based on the production cost and the operation rate. For example, the determination unit 42 may calculate the total amount of provisional increased production of the target product at each normal equipment 2 by increasing the provisional operating rate by the standard amount up to the standard operating rate, starting from the normal equipment 2 with the lowest production cost, and determine the provisional increased production amount of each normal equipment 2 when the total amount matches the predicted production decrease as the increased production amount of that normal equipment 2.

[0069] In response to the recovery of the abnormality occurring equipment 2, the determination unit 42 may determine another increase in production (also referred to as a compensatory increase in production) for increasing the production of the target product more than the production amount of the target product that would have been planned in the abnormality occurring equipment 2 within a period from the current time if the abnormality had not occurred. The production amount of the target product that would have been planned in the abnormality occurring equipment 2 within a period from the current time (for example, the time when the abnormality occurring equipment 2 is recovered) within a period from the current time to a first time in the production plan of the abnormality occurring equipment 2. The first time may be the due date for delivering the target product to the equipment 2 downstream in the supply chain 10, the due date for the raw materials of the target product for the abnormality occurring equipment 2, the time when a time equal to the recovery time has elapsed from the current time, or another time different from these.

[0070] The compensatory increased production amount may be an amount to compensate for the load placed on the normal equipment 2 due to the increased production caused by the occurrence of the abnormality, and may be the same as the total amount of the target product increased in production by the normal equipment 2 due to the occurrence of the abnormality. The compensatory increased production amount may be an increased production amount to be realized within the first adjustment period.

[0071] In response to the recovery of the abnormal equipment 2, the determination unit 42 may determine a production reduction amount (also referred to as a compensatory production reduction amount) for reducing the production of the target product from the production amount of the target product that would have been scheduled in the normal equipment 2 within a period from the current time if no abnormality had occurred. The production amount of the target product that would have been scheduled in the normal equipment 2 within a period from the current time (for example, the time when the abnormal equipment 2 was restored) within a period from the current time to a second time in the production plan of each normal equipment 2 may be a production amount that was scheduled in the period from the current time to a second time (also referred to as a second adjustment period). The second time may be a due date for delivering the target product to the equipment 2 downstream in the supply chain 10, a due date for the raw materials of the target product for the normal equipment 2, a time when a time equal to the recovery time has elapsed from the current time, or a time different from these. The second time may be the same as the first time, or may be different.

[0072] The compensatory production cutback may be the production volume that is reduced as a result of increased production of the target product in the restored abnormal equipment 2, and may be, for example, the same volume as the increased production of the target product in each normal equipment 2 until the restoration of the abnormal equipment 2. The compensatory production cutback may be determined for each normal equipment 2 that has increased production in response to the occurrence of an abnormality in the abnormal equipment 2. The compensatory production cutback may be the production cutback that should be realized within the second adjustment period.

[0073] The determination unit 42 may determine a production cut amount (also referred to as an extension production cut amount) of the target product in the abnormal equipment 2 when the abnormal equipment 2 is not restored within a predetermined reference time. The reference time may be longer or shorter than the restoration time, or may be the same length as the restoration time. The determination unit 42 may determine a production cut amount for reducing the target product less than the production amount of the target product predicted based on the production speed data until restoration in the abnormal equipment 2. The determination unit 42 may determine a production cut amount for reducing the target product less than the production amount of the target product predicted within a period from the current time (for example, the time when the reference time has elapsed after the occurrence of the abnormality) to a third time (also referred to as a third adjustment period). The production cut amount may be a production cut amount that should be realized within the third adjustment period. The third point in time may be a due date for delivering the target product to equipment 2 downstream in the supply chain 10, a due date for the raw materials of the target product to the abnormal equipment 2, a time point when a length of time equal to the recovery time has elapsed from the current time point, or another time point different from these. The third point in time may be the same as at least one of the first point in time and the second point in time, or may be different from each of the first point in time and the second point in time.

[0074] The determination unit 42 may re-determine the increased production amount (also referred to as the increased production amount for extension) for the normal equipment 2 when the abnormal equipment 2 does not recover within a predetermined reference time. The reference time may be the same length as the time for determining the increased production amount for extension. The determination unit 42 may determine the increased production amount for extension for each normal equipment 2 in the same manner as the determination of the increased production amount for the production equipment 2 based on the production condition data in response to the occurrence of an abnormality in the abnormal equipment 2. The determination unit 42 may determine the increased production amount for extension for each normal equipment 2 that has increased production in response to the occurrence of an abnormality in the abnormal equipment 2. The increased production amount for extension may be an increase from the production amount scheduled for the third adjustment period in the production plan, or may be an increased production amount to be realized within the third adjustment period.

[0075] The determination unit 42 may supply production increase data indicating the determined production increase and production decrease data indicating the determined production decrease to the transmission unit 43. The production increase data and the production decrease data may include identification information of the target equipment 2 for which the production increase has been determined.

[0076] ((Transmitter 43)) The transmission unit 43 transmits various information to each production management system 3.

[0077] The transmitting unit 43 may transmit a production condition request message requesting production condition data to the production management system 3 of each normally functioning equipment 2 in response to the occurrence of an abnormality in any of the equipment 2. The production condition request message may include recovery time data and identification information indicating the type of the target product.

[0078] The transmitting unit 43 may transmit a message instructing adjustment of production volume to each production management system 3. As a message instructing adjustment of production volume, the transmitting unit 43 may transmit a message instructing an increase in production, may transmit a message instructing an end to the increase in production, or may transmit a message instructing a decrease in production.

[0079] For example, the transmitting unit 43 may transmit a production increase instruction message corresponding to the increased production amount determined by the determining unit 42 to the production management system 3 that manages production in each normally operating equipment 2. The transmitting unit 43 may transmit a production increase instruction message corresponding to the increased production amount determined for each normally operating equipment 2 to the production management system 3 that manages the normally operating equipment 2. The production increase instruction message may indicate the increased production amount, and may further indicate the end point of the predicted period until recovery as the time when the increased production amount should be realized. Note that the production increase instruction message may indicate a production speed required to realize the increased production amount within the predicted period until recovery, and may further indicate the end point of the predicted period until recovery as the time when the production speed should be restored.

[0080] The transmitting unit 43 may transmit a production increase instruction message (also referred to as a compensatory production increase instruction message) according to the compensatory production increase amount determined when the abnormal equipment 2 is restored to the production management system 3 of the abnormal equipment 2. The compensatory production increase instruction message may indicate the compensatory production increase amount, and may further indicate the end point of the first adjustment period (i.e., the first time point) as the time point at which the compensatory production increase amount should be realized. Note that the compensatory production increase instruction message may indicate a production speed required to realize the compensatory production increase amount within the first adjustment period, and may further indicate the first time point as the time point at which the production speed should be restored.

[0081] In response to transmitting the compensatory production increase instruction message to the production management system 3 of the abnormal equipment 2, the transmitting unit 43 may transmit a production decrease instruction message corresponding to the compensatory production decrease amount (also referred to as a compensatory production decrease instruction message) to the production management system 3 of each normal equipment 2. The compensatory production decrease instruction message may indicate the compensatory production decrease amount, and may further indicate the end point of the second adjustment period (i.e., the second point in time) as the point in time when the compensatory production decrease amount should be realized. Note that the compensatory production decrease instruction message may indicate a production speed required to realize the compensatory production decrease amount within the second adjustment period, and may further indicate the second point in time as the point in time when the production speed should be restored.

[0082] When the abnormal equipment 2 does not recover, the transmission unit 43 may transmit a production reduction instruction message (also referred to as a production reduction instruction message for extension) according to the extension production reduction amount determined for the abnormal equipment 2 to the target production management system 3 of the abnormal equipment 2. The production reduction instruction message for extension may indicate the production reduction amount for extension, and may further indicate the end point of the third adjustment period (i.e., the third time point) as the time point at which the extension production reduction amount should be realized. The production reduction instruction message for extension may indicate a production speed required to realize the extension production reduction amount within the third adjustment period, and may further indicate the third time point as the time point at which the production speed should be restored. In the abnormal equipment 2 that receives the production reduction instruction message for extension, the production load is reduced by reducing the production amount by the extension production reduction amount, and therefore resources such as personnel and maintenance equipment allocated to recovery from the abnormality may be increased to speed up recovery.

[0083] The transmitting unit 43 may retransmit to the production management system 3 of each normal equipment 2 a production increase instruction message according to the extension production increase amount determined when the abnormal equipment 2 does not recover. The extension production increase instruction message may indicate the extension production increase amount, and may further indicate the end point of the third adjustment period (i.e., the third point in time) as the point in time when the extension production increase amount should be realized. The extension production increase instruction message may indicate a production speed required to realize the extension production increase amount within the third adjustment period, and may further indicate the third point in time as the point in time when the production speed should be restored. The normal equipment 2 that receives the extension production increase instruction message may increase its production amount by the extension production increase amount.

[0084] According to the above-described integrated management system 4, the production cut amount is predicted using the recovery time data acquired from the production management system 3 of the abnormal equipment 2, the production increase amount of the normal equipment 2 is determined based on the production cut amount and the production condition data of the normal equipment 2, and a production increase instruction message according to the production increase amount is transmitted to the production management system 3 of the normal equipment 2. Therefore, when an abnormality occurs in the abnormal equipment 2, the production cut amount until the recovery is made is made up by the normal equipment 2, and the production volume of the target product, and ultimately the production volume of the final product in the supply chain 10, can be maintained.

[0085] In addition, production condition data for the normal equipment 2 is received, and the amount of increased production in the normal equipment 2 is determined based on the received production condition data and the predicted amount of production reduction, so that the amount of increased production can be determined in accordance with the actual situation of the normal equipment 2.

[0086] In addition, production condition data including the possible increase in production amount of the product in the normal equipment 2 is received, and the increase in production amount of the product in the normal equipment 2 is set to be equal to or less than the possible increase in production amount, so that the feasible increase in production amount can be determined and the production amount of the target product can be reliably maintained.

[0087] In addition, since the production conditions include the operating rate, it is possible to determine the amount of increased production according to the operating rate of the normally functioning equipment 2.

[0088] Furthermore, since the production conditions include a maintenance plan, it is possible to determine an increased production amount according to the maintenance plan for the normally functioning equipment 2. Therefore, when maintenance is scheduled for the normally functioning equipment 2, it is possible to determine an increased production amount so as to compensate for the reduced production amount due to the maintenance, and therefore it is possible to reliably maintain the production amount of the target product.

[0089] In addition, since the production conditions include production costs, it is possible to determine the amount of increased production depending on the production costs. Therefore, it is possible to reduce the amount of increased production for facilities with high production costs and to increase the amount of increased production for facilities with low production costs.

[0090] In addition, since the production cost includes the shipping cost of the product, it is possible to determine the amount of increased production based on the production cost including the shipping cost.

[0091] Furthermore, when the abnormal equipment 2 recovers, a compensatory increase in production amount is determined for increasing the production amount of the target product in the abnormal equipment 2 from the current time point, which would have been planned in the abnormal equipment 2 if no abnormality had occurred, and a production increase instruction message corresponding to the compensatory increase in production amount is transmitted to the production management system 3 of the abnormal equipment 2. Therefore, the abnormal equipment 2 that has recovered from the abnormality can increase production of the product, thereby compensating for the load on the normal equipment 2 caused by the increase in production at the time of recovery. This makes it possible to prevent the maintenance plan for the normal equipment 2 from being changed due to the increase in production at the time of recovery, and makes it unnecessary to adjust the inventory of raw materials at the normal equipment 2 due to the increase in production at the time of recovery.

[0092] In addition, in response to a compensatory production increase instruction message corresponding to the compensatory increased production amount being sent to the production management system 3 of the abnormal equipment 2, a compensatory production decrease instruction message is sent to the production management system 3 of the normal equipment 2, so that the load on the normal equipment 2 caused by the increased production until recovery can be compensated for.

[0093] Moreover, if the abnormal equipment 2 does not recover, the amount of production cutback for extension in the abnormal equipment 2 is determined and transmitted to the production management system 3 of the abnormal equipment 3. Therefore, the resources allocated to recovery in the abnormal equipment 2 can be increased, and recovery can be accelerated.

[0094] Furthermore, if the abnormal equipment 2 does not recover, the increased production amount for extension in the normal equipment 2 is redetermined, and a production increase instruction message corresponding to the increased production amount for extension is retransmitted to the production management system 3 of the normal equipment 2. Therefore, even if the abnormal equipment 2 does not recover, the production amount of the target product can be maintained.

[0095] (operation) 4 shows the operation of the production system 1. The production management system 3 of the abnormal equipment 2 (also referred to as the production management system 3X), the production management system 3 of the normal equipment 2 (also referred to as the production management system 3Y), and the integrated management system 4 maintain the production volume of the final product in the supply chain 10 by performing the processes of steps S101 to S307. Although not shown in the figure, each production management system 3 may sequentially acquire status data of the target equipment 2 by the acquisition unit 30 and detect the status of the target equipment 2 by the detection unit 31.

[0096] In step S101, the production control system 3X detects, by the detection unit 31, an abnormality in the target equipment 2 based on the status data.

[0097] In step S103, the production control system 3X predicts the recovery time by the prediction unit 33 using the model output output from the learning model 322. The prediction unit 33 may predict the recovery time by using the model output output from the learning model 322 in response to input of state data when an abnormality is detected.

[0098] In step S105, the production control system 3X transmits restoration time data indicating the restoration time to the integrated control system 4 via the transmission unit .

[0099] In step S201, the integrated management system 4 acquires, via the receiving unit 40, recovery time data from the target production management system 3X.

[0100] In step S203, the integrated management system 4 causes the prediction unit 41 to predict a production reduction amount of the target product in the abnormality occurrence equipment 2 using the recovery time data.

[0101] In step S205, the integrated management system 4 transmits a production condition request message to the production management system 3Y of each normally functioning equipment 2 via the transmission unit 43.

[0102] In step S301, the production control system 3Y transmits the production condition data of the target equipment 2 (here, the normal equipment 2) to the integrated control system 4 via the control unit 37 and the transmission unit .

[0103] In step S207, the integrated management system 4 determines, by the determination unit 42, the increased production amount of the product in each normally functioning equipment 2 based on the predicted subtraction amount and the production condition data of each normally functioning equipment 2.

[0104] In step S209, the integrated management system 4 transmits, via the transmission unit 43, a production increase instruction message corresponding to the increased production amount to the production management system 3Y of each normally functioning equipment 2.

[0105] In step S303, each production control system 3Y controls the normally functioning equipment 2 so as to realize the increased production amount indicated in the production increase instruction message by the control unit 37. As a result, the normally functioning equipment 2 increases production.

[0106] On the other hand, in step S107, the production management system 3X of the abnormal equipment 2 detects that the target equipment 2 is normal, that is, has recovered from the abnormality, based on the status data, by the detection unit 31. Note that in this figure, as an example, a case will be described in which the abnormal equipment 2 has recovered from the occurrence of the abnormality within a reference time.

[0107] In step S109, the production control system 3X notifies the integrated control system 4 via the transmission unit 34 that the target equipment 2 has been restored.

[0108] In step S211, the integrated management system 4 determines, by the determination unit 42, a compensatory increase in production amount for the abnormal equipment 2, and determines a compensatory decrease in production amount for each normal equipment 2.

[0109] In step S213, the integrated management system 4 transmits a compensatory production increase instruction message indicating a compensatory production increase amount to the production management system 3X, and transmits a compensatory production decrease instruction message indicating a compensatory production decrease amount to the production management system 3Y, via the transmission unit 43. The compensatory production increase instruction message may indicate a first point in time at which the compensatory production increase amount should be realized, and the compensatory production decrease instruction message may indicate a second point in time at which the compensatory production decrease amount should be realized.

[0110] In step S113, the production management system 3X controls the abnormal equipment 2 after recovery, using the control unit 37, so as to realize the increased production amount indicated in the compensatory production increase instruction message. This increases production in the abnormal equipment 2. Then, in step S115, the first time point is reached and the target product for the compensatory increased production amount is generated, and the production management system 3X uses the control unit 37 to produce the amount of production according to the original production plan.

[0111] Meanwhile, in step S305, each production management system 3Y controls the normal equipment 2 by the control unit 37 so as to realize the production reduction amount indicated in the compensatory production reduction instruction message. This reduces production in the normal equipment 2. Then, in step S307, the second time point is reached and the target product for the compensatory production reduction amount is generated, and the production management system 3Y uses the control unit 37 to produce the amount of production according to the original production plan.

[0112] According to the above operation, the recovery time is predicted using the model output output from learning model 322 in response to input of status data when the abnormality was detected. Therefore, it is possible to predict the recovery time more accurately according to the equipment status, compared to the case where the model output is used in response to input of status data before and after the abnormality was detected.

[0113] (Modification) In the above embodiment, the production management system 3 has been described as having the storage unit 32, the transmission unit 34, the model generation unit 35, the reception unit 36, and the control unit 37, but at least one of these may not be included. If the production management system 3 does not have the storage unit 32, the data file 321 and the learning model 322 may be stored in an external storage device that can communicate with the production management system 3. If the production management system 3 does not have the transmission unit 34, the production management system 3 may display the detection result by the detection unit 31, recovery time data, production speed data, production condition data, etc. on a display device. If the production management system 3 does not have the model generation unit 35, the production management system 3 may have a model acquisition unit that acquires the learning model 322 from an external learning device that generates the learning model 322 by learning processing using the status data and the actual recovery time as learning data. In this case, too, the learning model 322 is generated by learning processing using the status data and the actual recovery time as learning data, so that a recovery time that is in line with the actual situation can be acquired. If the production management system 3 does not have a receiving unit 36, instead of receiving a message instructing an adjustment of production volume, the production management system 3 may receive an operator's input operation instructing an adjustment of production volume, and instead of receiving a message requesting production condition data, the production management system 3 may receive an operator's input operation requesting production condition data.

[0114] In addition, the prediction unit 33 of the production management system 3 has been described as predicting the recovery time using the model output output from the learning model 322 in response to input of the state data when the abnormality was detected, but the recovery time may be predicted using the model output output from the learning model 322 in response to input of the state data from when the abnormality was detected to when it was restored. For example, the prediction unit 33 may input the state data acquired by the acquisition unit 30 to the learning model 322 one by one after the detection of the abnormality to predict the recovery time. This makes it possible to predict an accurate recovery time according to the change in state after the detection of the abnormality. When the recovery time is predicted one by one after the occurrence of the abnormality, the recovery time of the abnormality may be associated with each state data from the occurrence of the abnormality to the recovery time among the state data of the data file 321, and the model generation unit 35 may perform a learning process of the learning model 322 using the learning data in which the state data at each time point from the occurrence of the abnormality to the recovery is associated with the recovery time of the abnormality. The transmission unit 34 may notify the integrated management system 4 of the predicted recovery time each time, and the prediction unit 41 of the integrated management system 4 may predict the amount of production cut in the abnormal equipment 2 each time the recovery time is notified. The determination unit 42 of the integrated management system 4 may determine the amount of production increase for each normal equipment 2 each time a production cut is predicted, and the transmission unit 43 may transmit a production increase instruction message corresponding to the amount of production increase to the production management system 3Y of the normal equipment 2.

[0115] In addition, the prediction unit 33 of the production management system 3 has been described as generating recovery time data indicating the recovery time and the time when the abnormality occurred, but the recovery time data does not need to indicate the time when the abnormality occurred. In this case, the period from the present time to the end of the recovery time may be set as the predicted period until recovery, and the control unit 37 may generate production condition data indicating the production conditions for that period.

[0116] In addition, the transmission unit 34 of the production management system 3 has been described as notifying the integrated management system 4 of the production speed of the product in the abnormal equipment 2 from the detection of the abnormality to the recovery. In addition to this, or instead of this, the transmission unit 34 may notify the integrated management system 4 of the production speed of the product in the abnormal equipment 2 before the abnormality is detected. In these cases, the integrated management system 4 can easily adjust the production of the target product until the recovery. The production speed of the product in the abnormal equipment 2 before the abnormality is detected may be the production speed of the product in a state in which the abnormal equipment 2 is normal, and may be set in advance in the production plan. When the production speed before the abnormality is detected and the production speed from the abnormality detection to the recovery are notified, the prediction unit 41 of the integrated management system 4 may calculate the reduction in production of the product in the abnormal equipment 2 within the recovery time by multiplying the difference between the two by the recovery time indicated by the recovery time data. In the case where the production speed before the abnormality is detected is notified but the production speed from the abnormality detection to recovery is not notified, the prediction unit 41 of the integrated management system 4 may calculate the reduction in production of the product in the abnormal equipment 2 within the recovery time by multiplying the production speed before the abnormality is detected by the recovery time indicated by the recovery time data. The reduction in production may be the reduction in production when the abnormality in the abnormal equipment 2 makes it impossible to produce the product.

[0117] In addition, the learning model 322 has been described as outputting the recovery time in response to the input of state data, but it may output data indicating the location of the abnormality, or data indicating the repair process required to recover from the abnormality. The prediction unit 33 may predict the recovery time using such a model output. As an example, the prediction unit 33 may predict the recovery time using a table in which the recovery time is associated with each location of the abnormality or each repair process.

[0118] In addition, although each production management system 3 has been described as managing a single piece of equipment 2, it may also be configured to manage multiple pieces of equipment 2 that produce the same target product, or multiple pieces of equipment 2 that produce different target products.

[0119] Further, the receiving unit 40 of the integrated management system 4 has been described as receiving the production condition data from the production management system 3 of the normally functioning equipment 2, but it may receive the data from the normally functioning equipment 2 itself.

[0120] Also, the receiving unit 40 of the integrated management system 4 has been described as receiving the production speed of the target product from the production management system 3 of the abnormality occurring equipment 2, but this does not have to be the case. In this case, the prediction unit 41 may multiply the production speed preset in the production plan of the abnormality occurring equipment 2 by the recovery time indicated by the recovery time data to calculate the reduction in production of the product in the abnormality occurring equipment 2 within the recovery time. This reduction in production may be the reduction in production when the production of the product becomes impossible due to the occurrence of an abnormality in the abnormality occurring equipment 2.

[0121] In addition, the receiving unit 40 of the integrated management system 4 is described as receiving the production condition data from the production management system 3 of the normal equipment 2, but it is not necessary to receive the data. In this case, the determining unit 42 may determine the increased production amount of the normal equipment 2 based on the production condition data stored in advance for the normal equipment 2.

[0122] Also, the transmitting unit 43 of the integrated management system 4 has been described as transmitting a compensatory production increase instruction message to the production management system 3X and transmitting a compensatory production decrease instruction message to the production management system 3Y when the abnormal equipment 2 is restored, but if compensation is not to be made at the abnormal equipment 2, a production increase end message instructing an end of production may be transmitted to the production management system 3Y. In this case, the production management system 3X of the abnormal equipment 2 may return the production speed of the abnormal equipment 2 to the speed before the abnormality occurred in response to the production increase end message. The production management system 3Y of the normal equipment 2 may return the production speed of the normal equipment 2 to the speed before the abnormality occurred in response to the production increase end message. This allows each piece of equipment 2 to be restored to the production state before the abnormality occurred in response to the recovery.

[0123] Various embodiments of the present invention may be described with reference to flow charts and block diagrams, where the blocks may represent (1) stages of a process in which operations are performed or (2) sections of an apparatus responsible for performing the operations. Particular stages and sections may be implemented by dedicated circuitry, programmable circuitry provided with computer readable instructions stored on a computer readable medium, and / or a processor provided with computer readable instructions stored on a computer readable medium. Dedicated circuitry may include digital and / or analog hardware circuitry and may include integrated circuits (ICs) and / or discrete circuits. Programmable circuitry may include reconfigurable hardware circuitry including logical AND, logical OR, logical XOR, logical NAND, logical NOR, and other logical operations, memory elements such as flip-flops, registers, field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), programmable logic arrays (PLAs), and the like.

[0124] A computer-readable medium may include any tangible device capable of storing instructions that are executed by a suitable device, such that the computer-readable medium having instructions stored thereon comprises an article of manufacture that includes instructions that can be executed to create means for performing the operations specified in the flowcharts or block diagrams. Examples of computer-readable media may include electronic storage media, magnetic storage media, optical storage media, electromagnetic storage media, semiconductor storage media, and the like. More specific examples of computer-readable media may include floppy disks, diskettes, hard disks, random access memories (RAMs), read-only memories (ROMs), erasable programmable read-only memories (EPROMs or flash memories), electrically erasable programmable read-only memories (EEPROMs), static random access memories (SRAMs), compact disk read-only memories (CD-ROMs), digital versatile disks (DVDs), Blu-ray (RTM) disks, memory sticks, integrated circuit cards, and the like.

[0125] The computer readable instructions may include either assembler instructions, Instruction Set Architecture (ISA) instructions, machine instructions, machine-dependent instructions, microcode, firmware instructions, state setting data, or source or object code written in any combination of one or more programming languages, including object-oriented programming languages ​​such as Smalltalk®, JAVA®, C++, etc., and conventional procedural programming languages ​​such as the “C” programming language or similar programming languages.

[0126] The computer-readable instructions may be provided to a processor or programmable circuit of a programmable data processing device such as a computer, either locally or over a wide area network (WAN) such as a local area network (LAN), the Internet, etc., to execute the computer-readable instructions to create a means for performing the operations specified in the flowchart or block diagram. Here, the computer may be a PC (personal computer), a tablet computer, a smartphone, a workstation, a server computer, a general-purpose computer, or a special-purpose computer, or may be a computer system in which multiple computers are connected. Such a computer system in which multiple computers are connected is also called a distributed computing system, and is a computer in the broad sense. In a distributed computing system, each of the multiple computers executes a part of a program, and the multiple computers collectively execute a program by transferring data during program execution between the computers as necessary.

[0127] Examples of processors include computer processors, central processing units (CPUs), processing units, microprocessors, digital signal processors, controllers, microcontrollers, etc. A computer may have one processor or multiple processors. In a multiprocessor system with multiple processors, each processor executes a part of a program, and the multiple processors collectively execute a program by passing data during program execution between the processors as necessary. For example, in executing multitasks, each of the multiple processors may execute a part of each task in small chunks by switching tasks for each time slice. In this case, which part of a program each processor executes changes dynamically. Which part of a program each of the multiple processors executes may be statically determined by programming that takes the multiprocessor into consideration.

[0128] 5 illustrates an example of a computer 1200 in which aspects of the present invention may be embodied in whole or in part. Programs installed on the computer 1200 may cause the computer 1200 to function as or perform operations associated with an apparatus or one or more sections of the apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention, and / or to perform a process or steps of a process according to an embodiment of the present invention. Such programs may be executed by the CPU 1212 to cause the computer 1200 to perform specific operations associated with some or all of the blocks of the flowcharts and block diagrams described herein.

[0129] The computer 1200 according to this embodiment includes a CPU 1212, a RAM 1214, a graphic controller 1216, and a display device 1218, which are connected to each other by a host controller 1210. The computer 1200 also includes input / output units such as a communication interface 1222, a hard disk drive 1224, a DVD-ROM drive 1226, and an IC card drive, which are connected to the host controller 1210 via an input / output controller 1220. The computer also includes legacy input / output units such as a ROM 1230 and a keyboard 1242, which are connected to the input / output controller 1220 via an input / output chip 1240.

[0130] The CPU 1212 operates according to a program stored in the ROM 1230 and the RAM 1214, thereby controlling each unit. The graphic controller 1216 retrieves image data generated by the CPU 1212 into a frame buffer or the like provided in the RAM 1214 or into the graphic controller 1216 itself, and causes the image data to be displayed on the display device 1218.

[0131] The communication interface 1222 communicates with other electronic devices via a network. The hard disk drive 1224 stores programs and data used by the CPU 1212 in the computer 1200. The DVD-ROM drive 1226 reads programs or data from the DVD-ROM 1201 and provides the programs or data to the hard disk drive 1224 via the RAM 1214. The IC card drive reads programs and data from an IC card and / or writes programs and data to an IC card.

[0132] The ROM 1230 stores therein a boot program or the like executed by the computer 1200 upon activation, and / or a program that depends on the hardware of the computer 1200. The input / output chip 1240 may also connect various input / output units to the input / output controller 1220 via a parallel port, a serial port, a keyboard port, a mouse port, and the like.

[0133] The programs are provided by a computer-readable medium such as a DVD-ROM 1201 or an IC card. The programs are read from the computer-readable medium, installed in the hard disk drive 1224, the RAM 1214, or the ROM 1230, which are also examples of computer-readable media, and executed by the CPU 1212. Information processing described in these programs is read by the computer 1200, and brings about cooperation between the programs and the various types of hardware resources described above. An apparatus or method may be constructed by realizing information manipulation or processing according to the use of the computer 1200.

[0134] For example, when communication is performed between the computer 1200 and an external device, the CPU 1212 may execute a communication program loaded in the RAM 1214 and instruct the communication interface 1222 to perform communication processing based on the processing described in the communication program. Under the control of the CPU 1212, the communication interface 1222 reads transmission data stored in a transmission buffer processing area provided in the RAM 1214, the hard disk drive 1224, the DVD-ROM 1201, or a recording medium such as an IC card, and transmits the read transmission data to the network, or writes reception data received from the network to a reception buffer processing area or the like provided on the recording medium.

[0135] Furthermore, the CPU 1212 may cause all or a necessary portion of a file or database stored in an external recording medium such as a hard disk drive 1224, a DVD-ROM drive 1226 (DVD-ROM 1201), an IC card, etc. to be read into the RAM 1214, and perform various types of processing on the data on the RAM 1214. The CPU 1212 then writes back the processed data to the external recording medium.

[0136] Various types of information, such as various types of programs, data, tables, and databases, may be stored in the recording medium and undergo information processing. The CPU 1212 may perform various types of processing on the data read from the RAM 1214, including various types of operations, information processing, conditional judgment, conditional branching, unconditional branching, information search / replacement, etc., as described throughout this disclosure and specified by the instruction sequence of the program, and write back the results to the RAM 1214. The CPU 1212 may also search for information in a file, database, etc. in the recording medium. For example, when a plurality of entries each having an attribute value of a first attribute associated with an attribute value of a second attribute are stored in the recording medium, the CPU 1212 may search for an entry that matches a condition, in which the attribute value of the first attribute is specified, from among the plurality of entries, read the attribute value of the second attribute stored in the entry, and thereby obtain the attribute value of the second attribute associated with the first attribute that satisfies a predetermined condition.

[0137] The above-described programs or software modules may be stored in a computer-readable medium on the computer 1200 or in the vicinity of the computer 1200. Also, a recording medium such as a hard disk or a RAM provided in a server system connected to a dedicated communication network or the Internet can be used as a computer-readable medium, thereby providing the programs to the computer 1200 via the network.

[0138] Although the present invention has been described above using the embodiments, the technical scope of the present invention is not limited to the scope described in the above embodiments. It is clear to those skilled in the art that various modifications and improvements can be made to the above embodiments. It is clear from the description of the claims that such modifications and improvements can also be included in the technical scope of the present invention.

[0139] It should be noted that the order of execution of each process, such as operations, procedures, steps, and stages, in the devices, systems, programs, and methods shown in the claims, specifications, and drawings is not specifically stated as "before," "prior to," etc., and may be realized in any order unless the output of a previous process is used in a later process. Even if the operational flow in the claims, specifications, and drawings is explained using "first," "next," etc. for convenience, it does not mean that it is essential to perform the process in this order. [Explanation of symbols]

[0140] 1. Production System 2 Equipment 3. Production Management System 4. Integrated Management System 10 Supply Chain 30 Acquisition Department 31 Detection unit 32 Storage section 33 Prediction Department 34 Transmitter 35 Model Generation Unit 36 Receiving section 37 Control Unit 40 Receiving section 41 Prediction Department 42 Decision Section 43 Transmitter 321 Data File 322 Learning Model 1200 Computer 1201 DVD-ROM 1210 Host Controller 1212 CPU 1214 RAM 1216 Graphics Controller 1218 Display Devices 1220 Input / Output Controller 1222 Communication Interface 1224 Hard Disk Drive 1226 DVD-ROM drive 1230 ROM 1240 Input / Output Chip 1242 Keyboard

Claims

1. An acquisition unit that acquires status data indicating a status of equipment that produces a product; A detection unit that detects an abnormality in the equipment based on the status data; a prediction unit that predicts a recovery time required for the equipment to be restored by using a model output output from a learning model in response to input of the state data when an abnormality in the equipment is detected; A production management system that includes:

2. The production management system according to claim 1 , wherein the learning model is trained to output the recovery time in response to input of the status data.

3. The production management system according to claim 2 , further comprising a model generation unit configured to generate the learning model by a learning process using the status data and the actual recovery time as learning data.

4. The production management system according to claim 2 , further comprising a model acquisition unit that acquires the learning model from a learning device that generates the learning model by a learning process using the status data and the actual recovery time as learning data.

5. The production management system according to claim 1 , wherein the prediction unit predicts the recovery time by using a model output output from the learning model in response to input of the state data when an abnormality is detected.

6. 2. The production management system according to claim 1, wherein the prediction unit predicts the recovery time by using a model output output from the learning model in response to input of the status data from when an abnormality is detected to when it is restored.

7. The production management system according to claim 1 , further comprising a notification unit that notifies the recovery time to an integrated management system that integrates and manages a plurality of facilities related to the product.

8. The production management system according to claim 7 , wherein the notification unit notifies the integrated management system of the production rate of the product in the facility before an abnormality is detected.

9. The production management system according to claim 7 , wherein the notification unit notifies the integrated management system of a production rate of the product in the facility from when an abnormality is detected until when the abnormality is restored.

10. The production management system according to claim 7 , wherein the notification unit notifies the integrated management system of the production rate of the product in the facility after recovery.

11. The computer acquiring status data indicative of a status of equipment that produces the product; Detecting an abnormality in the equipment based on the status data; and When an abnormality is detected in the equipment, predicting a recovery time required for the equipment to be restored using a model output output from a learning model in response to input of the state data; The production management method includes:

12. The method is executed by a computer, causing the computer to: An acquisition unit that acquires status data indicating a status of equipment that produces a product; A detection unit that detects an abnormality in the equipment based on the status data; a prediction unit that predicts a recovery time required for the equipment to be restored by using a model output output from a learning model in response to input of the state data when an abnormality in the equipment is detected; A production management program that functions as a system.

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