Power system section creating device, power system section creating method, and power system section creating system

Abstract

To evaluate the amount of reduction in the output from a power supply on the basis of the power generated in a power generating system and the amount of power flow in a power transmission and transformation facility in a power system section.SOLUTION: A power system section creating device 9 comprises: a system information management unit 1 that stores various types of information on a power facility in a power system; a power system section creating unit 2 that creates a power system section including power transmission line flow prediction from power generating system output prediction and demand prediction; and a regulated power supply output correction unit 3 that corrects regulated power supply output on the basis of a regulated power supply output estimation model that performs learning with the power generating system output prediction and its error factor data as explanatory variables and a regulated power supply output actual result as an objective variable to estimate regulated power supply output, and corrects a power system plan.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to an apparatus, a method and a system for generating a power system cross section consisting of generated power, consumed power and currents flowing through power transmission and transformation facilities in a power system. [Background technology]

[0002] In recent years, with the large-scale introduction of renewable energy sources (RES), when the amount of electricity generated by renewable energy sources increases, grid congestion occurs, in which the amount of electricity passing through transmission and transformation facilities such as power grid lines and substation equipment exceeds the operating capacity of the transmission lines and substation equipment. As a means of promoting the introduction of renewable energy sources while avoiding this grid congestion, a grid connection method for power generation systems called non-farm type connection has been introduced. In this non-farm type connection, when grid congestion occurs in the transmission and transformation facilities, the power grid operator instructs the non-farm type connected power generation system to reduce the power generation, and the power generation system operator avoids grid congestion by reducing the power generation (hereinafter referred to as output reduction).

[0003] When and how much output curtailment will occur is determined by the power generation of all power generation systems connected to the power grid, the power consumption at each point, and the amount of power flowing through the transmission and transformation facilities, making it difficult for power generation companies to predict. Grid operators are able to evaluate the amount of output curtailment, but due to market neutrality they do not disclose this amount to the public. In what follows, the database consisting of the power generation of power generation systems, the power consumption at each point, and the amount of power flowing through the transmission and transformation facilities will be referred to as the power system cross section.

[0004] Calculating the amount of output suppression requires a highly accurate power system cross-section, and it is important to minimize the estimation error of the power generation power of the power generation system. The output plan value of adjustable power sources (hereinafter referred to as regulated power sources) such as thermal power generation and energy storage systems is determined so as to minimize costs after ensuring regulating power the day before. After that, as power consumption and power generation from renewable energy sources fluctuate due to weather, etc., the fluctuations are adjusted by the regulated power sources. Therefore, the output plan value and the actual output value do not necessarily match. It is not easy to estimate the actual output value of an regulated power source taking into account fluctuations in power consumption and power generation from renewable energy sources.

[0005] To solve the above problem, Patent Document 1 and Patent Document 2 are known. Patent Document 1 discloses a system monitoring device that monitors the current state of the system and outputs the amount of power demand, and a generator output optimization unit that solves an evaluation function that requires the total power generation cost to be minimized while taking into consideration a supply-demand balance constraint that requires the total amount of power demand and the total amount of power supply to be equal, and determines the output of the generator at predetermined intervals, and this generator output optimization unit solves the evaluation function while further taking into consideration an AFC capacity constraint that is determined based on the upper limit value of the rate of change of the generator. Patent Document 2 discloses a system including a coefficient calculation unit that calculates a coefficient indicating the error between an estimated value estimated using a predetermined estimation method and an actual value corresponding to the estimated value, and a prediction unit that calculates an average coefficient indicating the average value of the coefficients calculated by the coefficient calculation unit, and calculates a predicted value on the predicted date based on the average coefficient and the estimated value estimated using the predetermined estimation method on the predicted date. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0006] [Patent Document 1] JP 2004-88842 A [Patent Document 2] JP 2020-123200 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0007] The method of Patent Document 1 is a method for estimating output limited to power generation systems connected to power grids in which renewable energy sources are not introduced. In the future, in power grids in which renewable energy sources are introduced on a large scale, there is a possibility that errors will occur in the estimation of the power generated by regulated power sources. Therefore, it is required to estimate the actual output value of regulated power sources by taking into account the power generated by renewable energy sources in addition to the power consumption. In the method of Patent Document 2, the power generation is predicted by multiplying the estimated power generation value by a uniform adjustment coefficient. Since the output of the regulated power source changes depending on the power generation by the renewable energy power source other than the regulated power source, the power consumption, meteorological information, and day of the week information, there is a possibility that an error will occur when the estimated value is multiplied by a uniform coefficient. Therefore, it is required to estimate the actual output value of the regulated power source depending on the power generation by the renewable energy power source other than the regulated power source, the power consumption, meteorological information, and day of the week information. Therefore, an object of the present invention is to estimate and predict with high accuracy the power consumption, the power flow rate of power transmission and transformation facilities, and the power generated by power generation systems, and to generate a high-accuracy power system cross section. [Means for solving the problem]

[0008] In order to solve the above-mentioned problems, the power system cross section generation device of the present invention is characterized by comprising: a system information management unit that stores various information of power equipment in a power system; a power system cross section generation unit that generates a power system cross section including a transmission line flow prediction from a power generation system output prediction and a demand prediction; and a regulated power output correction unit that corrects the regulated power output based on a regulated power output estimation model that estimates the regulated power output by learning the power generation system output prediction and its error factor data as explanatory variables and the regulated power output performance as a target variable, thereby correcting the power system plan. The power system cross section generation method of the present invention is characterized by comprising the steps of: a system information management unit storing various information of power equipment in a power system; a power system cross section generation unit calculating a power system cross section including a transmission line flow prediction from a power generation system output prediction and a demand prediction; a regulated power output correction unit constructing a regulated power output estimation model that estimates regulated power output using the power generation system output prediction and its error factor data as explanatory variables and regulated power output performance as a target variable; and a step of correcting the regulated power output based on the regulated power output estimation model to correct the power system plan. Other means will be described in the description of the embodiment of the invention. Effect of the Invention

[0009] According to the present invention, it is possible to estimate and predict power consumption, the amount of power flow in a power transmission and transformation facility, and the power generated by a power generation system with high accuracy, and generate a highly accurate power system cross section. It is also possible to evaluate the amount of output suppression of a power source based on the power generated by the power generation system and the amount of power flow in a power transmission and transformation facility in the power system cross section. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0010] [Figure 1] 1 is a configuration diagram of a power system cross section generating device according to a first embodiment. [Diagram 2] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an overall configuration of a system information management unit. [Diagram 3] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an overall configuration of a power system cross section generation unit. [Figure 4] 2 is a diagram showing an overall configuration of a regulated power supply output correction unit. FIG. [Diagram 5] 13 is a flowchart showing a learning operation performed by a regulated power supply output estimation model constructing unit. [Figure 6] 11 is a diagram showing a learning operation by a regulated power supply output estimation model construction unit. FIG. [Figure 7] 10 is a flowchart showing an estimation operation using a regulated power supply output estimation model. [Figure 8] FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating an estimation operation according to a regulated power supply output estimation model. [Figure 9] 13 is a flowchart showing an operation of a suppression amount calculation unit. [Figure 10] 13 is a flowchart showing an operation of a suppression amount calculation unit. [Figure 11] 1 is a flowchart for modifying a power system cross section of a local grid. [Figure 12] 1 is a flowchart for modifying a power system cross section of a bulk grid. [Figure 13] 13 is an example of a screen showing a result of correcting the output of a regulated power supply. [Figure 14] FIG. 11 is a configuration diagram of a power system cross section generating device according to a second embodiment. [Figure 15] FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating a configuration of an estimation model input data correction unit. [Figure 16] 13 is a flowchart of an explanatory variable data multicollinearity mitigation unit. [Figure 17A] 13 is a flowchart showing a process of a response variable data complementing unit. [Figure 17B] 13 is a flowchart showing a process of a response variable data complementing unit. [Figure 18] FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of a power generation system output information database. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0011] Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. In the following description, when an operation such as "XX is performed by XX unit" is described, it means that the processor reads out a program stored in the device and loads it into a DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) to realize the function of the XX unit. The processor reads out a program required for the processing of the calculation unit from among various programs constituting the program database and executes the calculation. It also performs processing such as searching for data in various databases stored inside the device and issuing instructions to display the processing results. The processor may be a CPU (Central Processing Unit) or a GPU (Graphics Processing Unit). It may also be a single-core processor or a multi-core processor. It may also be configured as one or more semiconductor chips, or as a computer device such as a calculation server.

[0012] First Embodiment FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram of a power system cross section generating device 9 according to the first embodiment. The power system cross section generating device 9 includes a system information management unit 1, a power system cross section generating unit 2, a regulating power source output correcting unit 3, a suppression amount calculating unit 4, and a display control unit 5.

[0013] The system information management unit 1 stores and manages various information on the target power system. The power system cross section generation unit 2 generates a power system cross section including a power transmission line power flow prediction based on system information including a power generation system output prediction and a demand prediction.

[0014] The regulated power output correction unit 3 corrects the predicted power generation value of the regulated power source based on the past actual value. The regulated power output correction unit 3 corrects the regulated power output based on a regulated power output estimation model that estimates the regulated power output by learning the power generation system output prediction and its error factor data as explanatory variables and the regulated power output actual value as a target variable, and corrects the power system plan.

[0015] The suppression amount calculation unit 4 suppresses the power generation of the power generation system and calculates the suppression amount of each power source to prevent the capacity of the power transmission and distribution facilities of the power system being exceeded or the oversupply of power generated by the power generation system such as a renewable energy power source. The display control unit 5 controls the display of the actual measured value, estimated value, and predicted value of the power generation of the power generation system. The suppression amount calculation unit 4 suppresses the output of the power generation system so as to comply with the system constraints and supply and demand constraints for the power system cross section, or suppresses the output of the power generation system to maximize the value of the power generation system, which includes the operating cost as well as penalties for environmental load and system congestion.

[0016] In the following, power generation systems refer to power plants and power generation systems including regulated power sources such as thermal power generators, nuclear generators, biomass power generation, geothermal generators, hydroelectric generators, pumped storage generators, wind power generation systems, solar power generation systems, and battery storage systems.

[0017] The present invention is not limited to a single power system cross section generation device, and may be realized as a power system cross section generation system in which a plurality of devices (servers) operate in cooperation with each other, and is not limited thereto.

[0018] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing the overall configuration of the system information management unit 1. As shown in FIG. The system information management unit 1 includes an input unit 11, a storage unit 12, and an acquisition unit 13. The input unit 11 accepts input of system information for a target power system. The storage unit 12 stores a system configuration information database 121, a power generation system information database 122, a facility plan information database 123, a power generation system output information database 124, a demand information database 125, a power transmission line power flow information database 126, and error factor data 127. The acquisition unit 13 extracts and outputs any one of the databases from the system information management unit 1 in response to a call command.

[0019] The system configuration information database 121 stores system configuration information including the connection positions and connection relationships of the transmission and transformation facilities, generators, and loads that constitute the power system, as well as information on the impedance of the transmission and transformation facilities, the transmission and transformation capacity, and the phase controllable range of the phase adjustment function, etc. The power generation system various information database 122 stores power generation system various information including the power source type of the power generation system connected to the power system, the upper and lower limits of the output, the output change rate, the maximum and minimum operation times, and connection contract information to the power system such as farm type connection or non-farm type connection.

[0020] The facility plan information database 123 stores facility plan information including plan information for the construction or abolition of power transmission and transformation facilities and generators that constitute the power system. The power generation system output information database 124 includes time series data of actual output values ​​or planned values ​​of power generation systems. The power generation system output information database 124 stores either time series data of actual output values ​​or planned values ​​of power generation systems such as thermal power generators, nuclear power generators, biomass power generators, geothermal power generators, hydroelectric power generators, pumped storage power generators, wind power generation systems, solar power generation systems, and storage battery systems.

[0021] The demand information database 125 includes time-series data on the actual power flow values ​​of substations and the power consumption of loads. In other words, the demand information database 125 stores time-series data on the actual power flow values ​​of substations and the sum of the power consumption of the entire target power system. The power transmission line power flow information database 126 includes time-series data on actual values ​​of power flow through the power transmission lines and the power distribution lines. The error factor data 127 includes data that is a factor of an error in estimating the output of the regulating power sources.

[0022] FIG. 3 is a diagram showing the overall configuration of the power system cross section generation unit 2. As shown in FIG. The power system cross section generation unit 2 is configured to include a power generation system output prediction unit 21 and a power flow calculation unit 22. The power system cross section generation unit 2 generates a power system cross section 23 configured to include a fixed power source output prediction value 231 calculated by the power generation system output prediction unit 21, a transmission line power flow prediction value 233 calculated by the power flow calculation unit 22, and point-by-point demand actual information 234.

[0023] The power generation system output prediction unit 21 acquires the system configuration information database 121, the power generation system various information database 122, and the demand information database 125 from the system information management unit 1, and calculates a fixed power source output prediction value 231. In other words, the power generation system output prediction unit 21 predicts the output of the power generation system based on the system configuration information, the power generation system various information, the facility plan information, the power generation system output information, and the demand information. The power flow calculation unit 22 calculates a power transmission line power flow prediction value 233 using a fixed power source output prediction value 231, the system configuration information database 121, the power generation system information database 122, and the demand information database 125. In other words, the power flow calculation unit 22 predicts the power transmission line power flow rate based on the system configuration information, the power generation system information, the facility plan information, the power generation system output information, and the demand information.

[0024] The following describes a specific operation of the power generation system output prediction unit 21. The power generation system output prediction unit 21 acquires the system configuration information database 121, the power generation system various information database 122, and the demand information database 125 from the system information management unit 1, and constructs a power system model consisting of the power generation systems and loads connected to each bus, and the impedances and transmission capacities of the buses and transmission lines to which the transmission lines are connected. The power generation system output prediction unit 21 determines the start-up state of the power generation systems other than the thermal power generators by starting up the power generation systems other than the thermal power generators with reference to the priority power supply rule so that the total power consumption and generated power of the entire target power system match, from the power generation system information database 122. The regulating power supply output estimation model is created for any one of the time sections of one hour, one day, or one week.

[0025] The power generation system output prediction unit 21 then determines the operation state of the thermal power generators so as to supply the discrepancy between the power consumption and the generated power after securing the necessary adjustment capacity and reserve capacity according to the power consumption of the entire power system. At this time, the power generation system output prediction unit 21 determines the start / stop plan for the thermal power generators so as to minimize the fuel cost of the entire thermal power generators while observing the operational constraints of the thermal power generators. Here, the operational constraints refer to the maximum and minimum values ​​of the output of the thermal power generators, the output change rate, the maximum and minimum values ​​of the operating time, and the upper limit of the amount of fuel used, and other constraints may be taken into consideration. A linear function or a higher-order function or other functions may be used as a function representing the fuel cost.

[0026] The specific operation of the power flow calculation unit 22 will now be described. The power flow calculation unit 22 uses the system configuration information database 121 to construct a power system model consisting of a power generation system, a load, and a power transmission and transformation facility. The power system model consists of buses and transmission lines connecting the buses, and the buses are connected to a power generation system, a load, or both, or to nothing. Next, the power flow calculation unit 22 creates an admittance matrix that represents the connection relationship of each bus and the admittance of the transmission line between the buses. Then, the power flow calculation unit 22 calculates the amount of power flowing through the transmission line when the power generated by the power generation system is supplied to the load. The method for calculating the amount of power flowing through the transmission line may be the DC method, the AC method, or another power flow calculation method.

[0027] Furthermore, without being limited to this, the fixed power output predicted value 231 and the power line power flow predicted value 233 may be calculated by a method that combines the functions of the power generation system output prediction unit 21 and the power flow calculation unit 22. In other words, the fixed power output predicted value 231 and the power line power flow predicted value 233 may be calculated by OPF (Optimal Power Flow) that expresses the operating costs of all power generation systems as a function and performs power flow calculation while observing the constraint that the overall demand and supply amount match and the operating constraints of the power generation systems, with the aim of minimizing the total operating cost.

[0028] FIG. 4 is a diagram showing the overall configuration of regulated power supply output correction unit 3. As shown in FIG. The regulated power supply output correcting unit 3 is configured to include a regulated power supply output estimation model constructing unit 31 and a regulated power supply output estimating unit 32.

[0029] The regulating power supply output estimation model construction unit 31 constructs a regulating power supply output estimation model 34 based on error factor data 127, which is an error factor in the regulating power supply output estimation acquired from the system information management unit 1, the power generation system output information database 124, and the regulating power supply output predicted value 232 calculated by the power system cross section generation unit 2. Note that the error factor data 127 may target the power generation system output information database 124, the demand information database 125, meteorological information, day of the week information, and other data that may be considered as factors for the difference between the planned value and the output actual value of the regulating power supply.

[0030] The regulated power output estimating unit 32 uses the regulated power output estimation model 34 created by the regulated power output estimation model building unit 31 to output a regulated power output estimated value 35 .

[0031] FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing the learning operation by regulating power supply output estimation model constructing unit 31. The regulated power output estimation model construction unit 31 acquires the error factor data 127 in the regulated power output estimation and the power generation system output information database 124 from the system information management unit 1 (step S311). Then, the regulated power output estimation model construction unit 31 acquires the regulated power output predicted value 232 from the power system cross section generation unit 2 (step S312).

[0032] The regulated power supply output estimation model construction unit 31 learns using the error factor data 127 and the regulated power supply output predicted value 232 as explanatory variables and the corresponding regulated power supply output actual value 33 in the power generation system output information database 124 as a target variable, and creates a regulated power supply output estimation model 34 (step S313). Then, when the regulated power supply output estimation model construction unit 31 learns and outputs the regulated power supply output estimation model 34, the processing in FIG. 5 ends.

[0033] The regulated power output estimation model construction unit 31 may create a model by a regression algorithm with the planned value of the regulated power output as the objective variable. Furthermore, the explanatory variables input to the regression algorithm may be values ​​at a single time point or values ​​having a time span of several hours or the like. General machine learning methods such as multiple regression analysis, support vector machines, and deep learning can be applied to the regression algorithm.

[0034] FIG. 6 is a diagram showing the learning operation by the regulated power supply output correction unit 3. As shown in FIG. The regulated power output predicted value 235 calculated by the power system cross section generation unit 2 is corrected using the regulated power output actual value 33. There are two cases where there is an error between the regulated power output predicted value 232 and the regulated power output actual value 33, for example.

[0035] The first case is when a demand forecast is incorrect because of a sudden increase or decrease in demand across the area served by a regulated resource on that day. The second case is when the weather forecast from the previous day turns out to be incorrect and the weather changes on the day, causing the predicted output value of the renewable energy source to be incorrect.

[0036] In these cases, it is necessary to increase or decrease the output value of the regulating power source, and there is a concern that an error will occur between the regulating power source's planned value the day before and its actual value on the day. Therefore, the regulating power source output estimation model 34 learns the tendency that regulating power source output also increases when demand suddenly increases in the relevant area, for example, and corrects the regulating power source output to increase. This improves the estimation accuracy of the regulating power source output.

[0037] FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing the estimation operation by the regulated power supply output estimation model 34. The regulated power output correction unit 3 acquires the error factor data 127 from the system information management unit 1, and acquires the regulated power output predicted value 232 from the power system cross section generation unit 2 (step S321). The regulated power output correction unit 3 inputs the regulated power output predicted value 232 and the error factor data 127 to the regulated power output estimation model 34 created by the regulated power output estimation model construction unit 31 (S322). Then, when the regulated power output correction unit 3 stores the data output from the regulated power output estimation model 34 as the regulated power output estimated value 35 (step S323), the processing of FIG. 7 ends.

[0038] FIG. 8 is a diagram showing the estimation operation by the regulated power supply output estimation model 34. As shown in FIG. The regulated power supply output estimation model 34 is a learned model created by the regulated power supply output estimation model construction unit 31 so as to correct the regulated power supply output predicted value 232 to the regulated power supply output actual value 33. The regulated power supply output estimation model 34 outputs the regulated power supply output estimated value 35 using the regulated power supply output estimation model 34. The regulated power supply output predicted value 232 and the error factor data 127 are input, and the regulated power supply output estimated value 35 is output. This process makes it possible to predict the regulated power supply output over a longer period of time.

[0039] 9 and 10 are flowcharts showing the operation of the suppression amount calculation unit 4. FIG. The suppression amount calculation unit 4 is implemented based on the flowchart in Fig. 9 or Fig. 10 or other algorithms. In the following, the condition that the capacity of the transmission and transformation equipment is not exceeded is called a system constraint, and the condition that the power generated by the power generation system and the power consumption of the load in the entire power system match is called a supply and demand constraint. In addition, reducing the power generated by the power generation system due to the system constraint and the supply and demand constraint is called output suppression.

[0040] The flowchart in Fig. 9 will be described. When the suppression amount calculation unit 4 receives a setting input of the number of years Y, which is the period for which the suppression amount is to be calculated (step S401), it sets an initial value of the repetition time t (step S402).

[0041] In step S403, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 judges whether the time t exceeds 8760, which indicates one year in the number of years Y. If the repeat time t exceeds the period for calculating the suppression amount (Yes), the process in FIG. 9 ends. If the repeat time t is equal to or less than the period for calculating the suppression amount (No), the process proceeds to step S404.

[0042] In step S404, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 suppresses the output of the power generation system of the local grid due to the grid constraint. Details of step S404 will be described later with reference to FIG. Next, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 suppresses the output of the power generation system of the periodic grid due to the grid constraint (step S405). Details of step S405 will be described later with reference to FIG.

[0043] Thereafter, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 suppresses the output of the power generation system so as to comply with the supply and demand constraint (step S407). When the suppression amount calculation unit 4 adds 1 to the time t (step S408), the process returns to step S403.

[0044] FIG. 10 is a flowchart showing another operation of the suppression amount calculation unit 4. When the suppression amount calculation unit 4 receives a setting input of the number of years Y, which is the period for which the suppression amount is to be calculated (step S411), it sets an initial value of the repetition time t (step S412).

[0045] In step S413, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 judges whether the time t exceeds 8760, which indicates one year in the number of years Y. If the repeat time t exceeds the period for calculating the suppression amount (Yes), the process in Fig. 10 ends. If the repeat time t is equal to or less than the period for calculating the suppression amount (No), the process proceeds to step S414.

[0046] In step S414, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 calculates the value of each power source that reflects grid congestion, the local marginal price (LMP).The suppression amount calculation unit 4 then solves an optimal power flow (OPF) based on the calculated LMP (step S415) and records the suppression amount (step S416).When the suppression amount calculation unit 4 adds 1 to the time t (step S417), the process returns to step S403.

[0047] Here, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 solves the OPF based on the LMP that penalizes the amount of transmission congestion on the operating cost of the power generation system. However, without being limited to this, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 may change the value standard of the power generation system according to the environmental load and other factors to keep the power generation opportunity of the power generation system fair.

[0048] In the flowcharts of Fig. 9 and Fig. 10, the time is illustrated in hourly increments, so it is assumed that there are power system cross sections in the number calculated by multiplying 365 days by 24 hours (8760) by the number of years Y. The calculation of the power system cross sections may be performed at other time granularities.

[0049] FIG. 11 is a flow chart for modifying the power system cross section of a local grid. The suppression amount calculation unit 4 assigns 1 to the variable R indicating the power source number (step S51). The suppression amount calculation unit 4 determines whether or not the capacity of the power transmission and transformation equipment in the target system is exceeded (step S52). If the capacity of the power transmission and transformation equipment in the target system is not exceeded in step S52 (No), the process proceeds to step S77. If the capacity of the power transmission and transformation equipment in the target system is exceeded (Yes), the process proceeds to step S53.

[0050] In step S53, the process branches multiple times based on the variable R. Specifically, if R is 1, the process proceeds to step S54, if R is 2, the process proceeds to step S55, if R is 3, the process proceeds to step S58, if R is 4, the process proceeds to step S59, if R is 5, the process proceeds to step S62, if R is 6, the process proceeds to step S65, if R is 7, the process proceeds to step S68, if R is 8, the process proceeds to step S71, and if R is 9, the process proceeds to step S74.

[0051] In step S54, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 controls the output of the regulating power source in the merit order, and the power transmission constraint is OPF only in the local grid. After that, the process proceeds to step S77.

[0052] In step S55, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 calculates a power transmission distribution factor (PTDF). If the PTDF is positive, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 performs uniform control of the non-firm type connected online uncontrollable power supplies (step S56). After that, when the suppression amount is absorbed by the slacks bus (step S57), the process proceeds to step S77.

[0053] In step S58, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 controls the output of the farm-type connected online uncontrollable power source in the merit order, and the power transmission constraint is OPF only in the local grid. After that, the process proceeds to step S77.

[0054] In step S59, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 calculates the PTDF. If the PTDF is positive, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 performs uniform control of the non-firm type connected biomass power source (step S60). After that, when the suppression amount is absorbed by the slack bus (step S61), the process proceeds to step S77.

[0055] In step S62, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 calculates the PTDF. If the PTDF is positive, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 performs uniform control of the naturally variable power source (e.g., solar power source, wind power source, etc.) of the non-firm type connection (step S63). After that, when the suppression amount is absorbed by the slack bus (step S64), the process proceeds to step S77.

[0056] In step S65, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 calculates the PTDF. If the PTDF is positive, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 performs uniform control of the local resource biomass power source that is difficult to control the output of the non-firm type connection (step S66). After that, when the suppression amount is absorbed by the slack bus (step S67), the process proceeds to step S77.

[0057] In step S68, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 calculates the PTDF. If the PTDF is positive, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 performs uniform control of the biomass power source of the provisional non-firm type connection (step S69). After that, when the suppression amount is absorbed by the slack bus (step S70), the process proceeds to step S77.

[0058] In step S71, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 calculates the PTDF. If the PTDF is positive, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 performs uniform control of the naturally variable power source (e.g., solar power source, wind power source, etc.) of the temporary non-firm type connection (step S72). After that, when the suppression amount is absorbed by the slack bus (step S73), the process proceeds to step S77.

[0059] In step S74, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 calculates the PTDF. If the PTDF is positive, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 performs uniform control of the local resource biomass power source that is difficult to control the output of the provisional non-firm type connection (step S75). After that, when the suppression amount is absorbed by the slack bus (step S76), the process proceeds to step S77.

[0060] In step S77, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 determines whether the variable R is 9. If the variable R is not 9 (No), the suppression amount calculation unit 4 adds 1 to R (step S78), and the process returns to step S52. If the variable R is 9 (Yes), the process in FIG. 9 ends.

[0061] FIG. 12 is a flow chart for modifying the power system cross section of the bulk grid. Unlike step S54 in FIG. 11, in step S54A, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 controls the output of the regulating power source in the merit order, and the power transmission constraint is OPF only in the bulk grid. Furthermore, unlike step S58 in Fig. 11, in step S58A, the suppression amount calculation unit 4 controls the output of the farm-type connected online uncontrollable power source in the merit order, and the transmission constraint is OPF only in the trunk grid. The other processing is the same as the processing of each step in Fig. 11.

[0062] FIG. 13 is a screen 8 showing the results of the correction of the regulated power supply output. The screen 8 is displayed on a display device such as a display device or a projector device installed at a headquarters that monitors the power system. The screen 8 includes a graph pane 81 and a map pane 82. A graph with time on the horizontal axis and output on the vertical axis is displayed in the graph pane 81. The thin dashed lines in the graph indicate predicted values, the coarse dashed lines indicate corrected values, and the solid lines indicate actual values. The graph pane 81 displays time series data of the predicted values, corrected values, and actual values ​​of the power generation system output. The map pane 82 displays a map showing the address of the target regulated power source.

[0063] According to the present embodiment, the output of the regulating power source, which is the main error factor in the power system cross section, is corrected with high accuracy to generate a highly accurate power system cross section, thereby making it possible to calculate the future output suppression amount of a power generation system that is being considered for new connection to the power system. Therefore, it becomes possible to quantitatively predict future power generation opportunities, and quantitatively evaluate the business feasibility of a new power generation system when it is connected.

[0064] Second Embodiment In the first embodiment, the output of the regulated power source is estimated and predicted using the output record data of the regulated power source. The record data may be missing due to reasons such as not all power generation systems being equipped with a power generation measuring instrument. In this case, it is necessary to estimate the output record of the power generation system. In addition, the explanatory variables used for learning may have multicollinearity, in which case the estimation accuracy may deteriorate.

[0065] FIG. 14 is a configuration diagram of a power system cross section generating device 9 according to the second embodiment. An example of the functional configuration of the power system cross section generating device 9 according to the second embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 14. An example of the functional configuration of the estimation model input data correction unit 6, which is added to the functional aspects of the power system cross section generating device 9 according to the first embodiment of the present invention, will be described. A power generation system output information database 124 and a demand information database 125 are acquired from the system information management unit 1, and a transmission line power flow prediction value is acquired from the power system cross section generating unit 2. The estimation model input data correction unit 6 complements missing parts in the power generation system output information database 124 and processes error factor data 127.

[0066] FIG. 15 is a diagram showing a configuration of the estimation model input data correction unit 6. As shown in FIG. The estimation model input data correction unit 6 acquires the power generation system output information database 124 and the demand information database 125 from the system information management unit 1, and acquires the transmission line power flow prediction value 233 from the power system cross section generation unit 2. The estimation model input data correction unit 6 is configured to include an explanatory variable data multicollinearity reduction unit 61 and a response variable data complementation unit 62.

[0067] The explanatory variable data multicollinearity mitigation unit 61 processes the input data set as explanatory variables and objective variables in the regulated power output estimation model construction unit 31 using time-series features. The explanatory variable data multicollinearity mitigation unit 61 further determines multicollinearity for the input data set as explanatory variables in the regulated power output estimation model construction unit 31, selects appropriate input data, and stores it in the system information management unit 1. In this way, the explanatory variable data multicollinearity mitigation unit 61 mitigates multicollinearity of the explanatory variables input to the regulated power output estimation model.

[0068] The objective variable data complementing unit 62 complements missing values ​​in the output performance values ​​of the regulated power supplies set as objective variables in the regulated power supply output estimation model building unit 31 , and stores the output performance values ​​of the regulated power supplies in the system information managing unit 1 .

[0069] FIG. 16 is a flowchart showing the operation of the explanatory variable data multicollinearity mitigation unit 61. The explanatory variable data multicollinearity mitigation unit 61 calculates a VIF (Variance Inflation Factor) that indicates the multicollinearity between explanatory variables (step S811). Then, the explanatory variable data multicollinearity mitigation unit 61 determines whether there is a combination whose VIF is higher than a set threshold (step S812). Note that an index other than the VIF may be used as an index indicating the multicollinearity.

[0070] In step S812, if there is a combination with a VIF higher than the set threshold (Yes), the explanatory variable data multicollinearity mitigation unit 61 merges explanatory variables with high similarity (step S613), and the process returns to step S812. In step S812, if there is no combination with a VIF higher than the set threshold (No), the process of FIG. 16 ends.

[0071] It is also possible to keep one of the explanatory variables with high similarity and exclude the other from the explanatory variables.Also, explanatory variables with higher contribution rates may be created by compressing and deleting dimensions using any one of principal component analysis, singular value decomposition, and kernel methods, or other methods. In addition, by merging explanatory variables that have multicollinearity among those used in learning, good estimation accuracy can be obtained.

[0072] 17A and 17B are flowcharts showing the processing of the objective variable data complementing unit 62. The objective variable data complementation unit 62 determines whether there is a power line whose actual value of the power line tide flow has an error ratio of the predicted value to the actual value of the power line tide flow that is equal to or greater than a threshold value (step S821). If there is no power line whose actual value of the power line tide flow has an error ratio of the predicted value to the actual value of the power line tide flow that is equal to or greater than a threshold value (No) in step S821, the process in Fig. 17A ends. If there is a power line whose actual value of the power line tide flow has an error ratio of the predicted value to the actual value of the power line tide flow that is equal to or greater than a threshold value (Yes), the process proceeds to step S822.

[0073] In step S822, the objective variable data complement unit 62 lists the power transmission lines in descending order of the error rate (step S822), and assigns 1 to the variable l (step S823). This makes it possible to perform correction in the order in which the power transmission line list is stored.

[0074] Next, the objective variable data complementation unit 62 calculates the sensitivity of each bus to the lth transmission line in the transmission line list (step S824), replaces the power flow rate of the lth transmission line in the transmission line list with the actual power flow value (step S825), and extracts and lists buses whose sensitivity is equal to or greater than an arbitrary threshold value γ and which estimate the power generation power of the power generation system (step S826).

[0075] The response variable data complementing unit 62 assigns 1 to the variable b (step S828). Then, the response variable data complementing unit 62 corrects the bth storage order of the bus list in accordance with the correction function of equation (1) (step S828).

number

[0076] The objective variable data complementing unit 62 determines whether or not a generator is connected to the extracted b-th bus (step S828).

[0077] If it is determined in step S828 that a generator is connected to the extracted bus (Yes), the objective variable data complementation unit 62 corrects the data so that the generator is operated within the operational constraints (step S829). If it is determined in step S828 that a generator is not connected to the extracted bus (No), the process proceeds to step S831.

[0078] Then, the objective variable data complement unit 62 judges whether or not the calculation of the correction amount for all the extracted bus lists has been completed (step S831). If the calculation of the correction amount for all the extracted bus lists has been completed (Yes), the process proceeds to step S833. If the calculation of the correction amount for any of the extracted bus lists has not been completed (No), the objective variable data complement unit 62 adds 1 to the variable b (step S832), and then the process returns to step S828.

[0079] In step S833, the objective variable data complement unit 62 determines whether all the transmission lines have been processed. If all the transmission lines have been processed (Yes), the objective variable data complement unit 62 stores information on the generated power of the power generation system and the power flow rate of the transmission lines in the system information management unit 1 (step S835), and ends the processing of Figures 17A and 17B. If there are any transmission lines that have not been processed (No), the objective variable data complement unit 62 adds 1 to the variable l (step S834), and then the processing returns to step S824.

[0080] The estimation model input data correction unit 6 can estimate, for all regulated power supplies, the regulated power supply output actual value 33 input as a target variable in the regulated power supply output estimation model construction unit 31. In other words, a regulated power supply output estimation model 34 can be constructed for all regulated power supplies.

[0081] According to formula (1), the larger the correction amount C at a given time for a given node, the greater the influence that node has on the error in the power line flow. The correction amount changes according to F, which is an index that indicates the degree of influence that the given node has on the power flow rate of a given power line. Note that although the power flow distribution coefficient F is used to determine the correction amount, other indices may also be used.

[0082] FIG. 18 is a diagram showing an example of the power generation system output information database 124. As shown in FIG. In the power generation system output information database 124 shown at the top, when the power generation result ID time is 2023 / 09 / 28 11:00, g101 is a missing value. In the power generation system output information database 124 shown at the bottom, when the power generation result ID time is 2023 / 09 / 28 11:00, g101 becomes 48, and the value is complemented.

[0083] The configuration of the present invention will be described below. [1] A system information management unit (1) that stores various information on power facilities in a power system; a power system cross section generating unit (2) for generating a power system cross section (23) including a power transmission line flow prediction from a power generation system output prediction and a demand prediction; a regulated power output correction unit (3) that corrects the regulated power output based on a regulated power output estimation model (34) that estimates the regulated power output by learning the power generation system output prediction and its error factor data as explanatory variables and the regulated power output record as a target variable, and corrects the power system plan; A power system cross section generating device comprising:

[0084] [2] The system information management unit (1) stores system configuration information, power generation system information, facility plan information, power generation system output information, demand information, power transmission line power flow information, and error factor data. 2. The power system cross section generating device according to claim 1 .

[0085] [3] The system configuration information (121) includes any of information on the connection positions and connection relationships of the transmission and transformation equipment, generators, and loads constituting the power system, the impedance of the transmission and transformation equipment, the transmission and transformation capacity, and the phase controllable range of the phase adjustment function. 3. The power system cross section generating device according to claim 2.

[0086] [4] The power generation system information (122) includes any of the following: the type of power source of the power generation system connected to the power grid, the upper and lower limits of the output, the output change rate, the maximum and minimum operation times, the coefficient in the fuel cost function, the number of connected generators, the scheduled start date and time of operation, the scheduled decommission date and time, and the connection contract information to the grid for a farm type connection and a non-farm type connection. 3. The power system cross section generating device according to claim 2.

[0087] [5] The facility planning information (123) includes any of information on plans for the construction or abolition of transmission and transformation facilities and generators that constitute the power system. 3. The power system cross section generating device according to claim 2.

[0088] [6] The power generation system output information (124) stores any one of time series data of output results or plans of power generation systems such as thermal power generators, nuclear power generators, biomass power generators, geothermal power generators, hydroelectric power generators, pumped storage power generators, wind power generation systems, solar power generation systems, and storage battery systems. 3. The power system cross section generating device according to claim 2.

[0089] [7] The demand information (125) stores time series data of a substation power flow actual value and the sum of power consumption of the entire target power system. 3. The power system cross section generating device according to claim 2.

[0090] [8] The power transmission line power flow information (126) stores time-series data of power flow results in the power transmission lines and the power distribution lines. 3. The power system cross section generating device according to claim 2.

[0091] [9] a power generation system output prediction unit (21) that predicts an output of the power generation system based on the system configuration information, the power generation system information, the facility plan information, the power generation system output information, and the demand information; a power flow calculation unit (22) that predicts a power flow rate in a transmission line based on the system configuration information, the power generation system information, the facility plan information, the power generation system output information, and the demand information, 3. The power system cross section generating device according to claim 2.

[0092]

[10] A power generation system output prediction unit (21) that calculates an adjustment power supply output prediction value; The regulated power output estimation unit (32) inputs the regulated power output prediction value and the error factor data to the regulated power output estimation model (34) and outputs a regulated power output estimation value. 3. The power system cross section generating device according to claim 2.

[0093]

[11] The error factor data (127) includes at least one of power generation system output information, demand information, weather information, and day of the week information. 3. The power system cross section generating device according to claim 2.

[0094]

[12] The regulated power supply output estimation model (34) is created for any one of a one-hour, one-day, and one-week time slices. 3. The power system cross section generating device according to claim 2.

[0095]

[13] a suppression amount calculation unit (4) that suppresses the output of a power generation system in the power system cross section (23) so as to comply with system constraints and supply-demand constraints, or suppresses the output of the power generation system in order to maximize the value of the power generation system including penalties for environmental load and system congestion in addition to operating costs; 2. The power system cross section generating device according to claim 1 .

[0096]

[14] A display control unit (5) that displays time-series data relating to output prediction, correction and performance of the power generation system on a screen of a display device; 2. The power system cross section generating device according to claim 1, further comprising:

[0097]

[15] an explanatory variable data multicollinearity mitigation unit (61) that mitigates multicollinearity of explanatory variables input to the regulating power supply output estimation model (34); a response variable data complementation unit (62) that complements missing values ​​in response variables to be input to the regulating power supply output estimation model (34); An estimation model input data correction unit (6) comprising: 2. The power system cross section generating device according to claim 1, further comprising:

[0098]

[16] a regulated power supply output estimation model construction unit (31) for constructing a regulated power supply output estimation model learned by using the power generation system output prediction and its error factor data as explanatory variables and the regulated power supply output performance as a target variable; The power system cross section generating device according to claim 1, further comprising:

[0099]

[17] A step in which a system information management unit (1) stores various information of power facilities in a power system; A step in which a power system cross section generation unit (2) calculates a power system cross section including a power transmission line flow prediction from a power generation system output prediction and a demand prediction; a step of correcting the regulated power output based on a regulated power output estimation model (34) that estimates the regulated power output by learning the power generation system output prediction and its error factor data as explanatory variables and the regulated power output record as a target variable, by a regulated power output correction unit (3), thereby correcting the power system plan; A power system cross section generation method comprising:

[0100]

[18] A system information management unit (1) that stores various information on power facilities in a power system; a power system cross section generation unit (2) that generates a power system cross section including a power transmission line flow prediction from a power generation system output prediction and a demand prediction; a regulated power output correction unit (3) that corrects the regulated power output based on a regulated power output estimation model (34) that estimates the regulated power output by learning the power generation system output prediction and its error factor data as explanatory variables and the regulated power output record as a target variable, and corrects the power system plan; A power system cross section generation system comprising:

[0101] (Modification) The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment, and includes various modified examples. For example, the above-described embodiment has been described in detail to clearly explain the present invention, and is not necessarily limited to those having all of the configurations described. It is possible to replace a part of the configuration of one embodiment with the configuration of another embodiment, and it is also possible to add the configuration of another embodiment to the configuration of one embodiment. In addition, it is also possible to add, delete, or replace a part of the configuration of each embodiment with another configuration.

[0102] The above configurations, functions, processing units, processing means, etc. may be realized in part or in whole by hardware such as an integrated circuit. The above configurations, functions, etc. may be realized by software by a processor interpreting and executing a program that realizes each function. Information such as the program, table, file, etc. that realizes each function can be stored in a recording device such as a memory, a hard disk, or an SSD (Solid State Drive), or a recording medium such as a flash memory card or a DVD (Digital Versatile Disk).

[0103] In each embodiment, the control lines and information lines are those that are considered necessary for the explanation, and not all control lines and information lines in the product are necessarily shown. In reality, it may be considered that almost all components are connected to each other. [Explanation of symbols]

[0104] 1 System information management department 2 Power system cross section generator 3 Adjustment power output correction section 4 Suppression amount calculation section 5. Display control section 6. Estimation model input data correction section 9 Power system cross section generator 11 Input section 12 Storage section 13 Acquisition Department 21 Power Generation System Output Prediction Department 22 Tidal flow calculation section 31 Regulating power supply output estimation model construction section 32 Adjusted power supply output estimation section 61 Explanatory variable data multicollinearity mitigation section 62 Objective variable data complementation section 121 Power System Configuration Information Database 122 Power generation system information database 123 Facility Planning Information Database 124 Power generation system output information database 125 Demand Information Database 126 Power Line Flow Information Database

Claims

1. A system information management unit that stores various information of power facilities in the power system; a power system cross section generation unit that generates a power system cross section including a power transmission line flow prediction from a power generation system output prediction and a demand prediction; a regulated power output correction unit that corrects the regulated power output based on a regulated power output estimation model that estimates the regulated power output by learning the power generation system output prediction and its error factor data as explanatory variables and the regulated power output record as a target variable, and corrects the power system plan; A power system cross section generating device comprising:

2. The system information management unit stores system configuration information, power generation system information, facility plan information, power generation system output information, demand information, power transmission line power flow information, and error factor data. The power system cross section generating device according to claim 1 .

3. The system configuration information includes any of information on the connection positions and connection relationships of the transmission and transformation equipment, generators and loads constituting the power system, the impedance of the transmission and transformation equipment, the transmission and transformation capacity, and the phase controllable range of the phase adjustment function. The power system cross section generating device according to claim 2 .

4. The power generation system information includes any of the power source type of the power generation system connected to the power grid, the upper and lower limits of the output, the output change rate, the maximum and minimum operation times, the coefficient in the fuel cost function, the number of connected generators, the scheduled start date and time of operation, the scheduled decommissioning date and time, and the connection contract information of the farm type connection and the non-farm type connection to the power grid. The power system cross section generating device according to claim 2 .

5. The facility planning information includes any one of information on plans for the construction or abolition of transmission and transformation facilities and generators that constitute the power system, The power system cross section generating device according to claim 2 .

6. The power generation system output information stores any one of time series data of output performance or plan of a power generation system such as a thermal power generation system, a nuclear power generation system, a biomass power generation system, a geothermal power generation system, a hydroelectric power generation system, a pumped storage power generation system, a wind power generation system, a solar power generation system, and a storage battery system. The power system cross section generating device according to claim 2 .

7. The demand information stores time series data of a substation power flow actual value and a sum of power consumption of the entire target power system. The power system cross section generating device according to claim 2 .

8. The power transmission line power flow information stores time series data of power flow results in the power transmission line and the power distribution line. The power system cross section generating device according to claim 2 .

9. a power generation system output prediction unit that predicts an output of the power generation system based on the system configuration information, the power generation system information, the facility plan information, the power generation system output information, and the demand information; a power flow calculation unit that predicts a power transmission line power flow rate based on the system configuration information, the power generation system information, the facility plan information, the power generation system output information, and the demand information, The power system cross section generating device according to claim 2 .

10. a power generation system output prediction unit for calculating an adjustment power supply output prediction value; The regulated power supply output estimation unit inputs the regulated power supply output prediction value and the error factor data to the regulated power supply output estimation model, and outputs a regulated power supply output estimation value. The power system cross section generating device according to claim 2 .

11. The error factor data includes at least one of power generation system output information, demand information, weather information, and day of the week information. The power system cross section generating device according to claim 2 .

12. The regulated power supply output estimation model is created for any one of a one-hour, one-day, and one-week time slices. The power system cross section generating device according to claim 2 .

13. a suppression amount calculation unit that suppresses the output of a power generation system so as to comply with system constraints and supply-demand constraints for the power system cross section, or suppresses the output of the power generation system to maximize the value of the power generation system including penalties for environmental load and system congestion in addition to operating costs; The power system cross section generating device according to claim 1 .

14. a display control unit that displays time-series data relating to output prediction, correction, and performance of the power generation system on a screen of a display device; The power system cross section generating device according to claim 1, further comprising:

15. an explanatory variable data multicollinearity mitigation unit that mitigates multicollinearity of explanatory variables input to the regulating power supply output estimation model; a response variable data complementation unit that complements missing values ​​in a response variable to be input to the regulating power supply output estimation model; An estimation model input data correction unit comprising: The power system cross section generating device according to claim 1, further comprising:

16. a regulated power supply output estimation model construction unit that constructs a regulated power supply output estimation model that is learned using the power generation system output prediction and its error factor data as explanatory variables and the regulated power supply output performance as a target variable; The power system cross section generating device according to claim 1, further comprising:

17. A step in which a system information management unit stores various information of power facilities in the power system; A step in which a power system cross section generation unit calculates a power system cross section including a power transmission line flow prediction from a power generation system output prediction and a demand prediction; a step of correcting the regulated power output based on a regulated power output estimation model in which the regulated power output estimation model estimates the regulated power output by learning the power generation system output prediction and its error factor data as explanatory variables and the regulated power output performance as a target variable, thereby correcting the power system plan; A power system cross section generation method comprising:

18. A system information management unit that stores various information of power facilities in the power system; a power system cross section generation unit that generates a power system cross section including a power transmission line flow prediction from a power generation system output prediction and a demand prediction; a regulated power output correction unit that corrects the regulated power output based on a regulated power output estimation model that estimates the regulated power output by learning the power generation system output prediction and its error factor data as explanatory variables and the regulated power output record as a target variable, and corrects the power system plan; A power system cross section generation system comprising:

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