Simulation device and simulation method

Abstract

To quantitatively present indirect revenue when formulating carbon measures.SOLUTION: A simulation device includes: a financial information processing unit 10 configured to calculate direct revenue and expenditures when decarbonization measures are implemented under introduction conditions and also estimate indirect revenue obtained as a result of non-financial information; a determination support unit 7 configured to execute a simulation as to whether a financial balance target and a decarbonization target will be met, taking the indirect revenue into account, when decarbonization measures are implemented under the introduction conditions; and a dashboard 100 configured to output a screen related to the simulation by the determination support unit 7.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a simulation apparatus and a simulation method, and is suitably applied to, for example, a simulation apparatus for a technique of presenting a decarbonization measure plan according to a decarbonization target.

Background Art

[0002] In recent years, in the production of products, there has been an increasing interest in environmental considerations. Patent Document 1 discloses a technique for effectively supporting the selection of measures for reducing the environmental load, sorting the measures obtained from a measure information table based on values corresponding to priorities for selecting the measures to be implemented, calculating cumulative values such as the effect value of environmental conservation for the measures, and outputting the measures and the cumulative values.

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0003]

Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0004] However, although indirect income can be considered as an effect of environmental consideration, in the technique disclosed in Patent Document 1, since such indirect income is not considered quantitatively, it has been difficult to determine whether the measure plan is appropriate.

[0005] The present invention has been made in consideration of the above points, and proposes a simulation apparatus and a simulation method capable of quantitatively presenting indirect income in the formulation of decarbonization measures.

Means for Solving the Problems

[0006] In order to solve such problems, in the present invention, a target input unit for inputting a decarbonization target related to decarbonization and a financial balance target related to financial balance, a condition setting unit for setting the introduction conditions of decarbonization measures corresponding to the decarbonization target, and a financial information processing unit for calculating direct revenues and expenditures when the decarbonization measures are implemented under the introduction conditions and estimating indirect revenues obtained as a result of non-financial information, and a determination support unit for executing a simulation regarding whether or not the financial balance target and the decarbonization target are satisfied in consideration of the indirect revenues when the decarbonization measures are implemented under the introduction conditions, and an interface for outputting a screen related to the simulation by the determination support unit are provided.

[0007] Further, in the present invention, a target input step in which a target input unit receives input of a decarbonization target related to decarbonization and a financial balance target related to financial balance, a condition setting step in which a condition setting unit sets the introduction conditions of decarbonization measures corresponding to the decarbonization target, a financial information processing step in which a financial information processing unit calculates direct revenues and expenditures when the decarbonization measures are implemented under the introduction conditions and estimates indirect revenues obtained as a result of non-financial information, a determination support step in which a determination support unit executes a simulation regarding whether or not the financial balance target and the decarbonization target are satisfied in consideration of the indirect revenues when the decarbonization measures are implemented under the introduction conditions, and an output step of outputting a screen related to the simulation in the determination support step to the interface are provided.

Effects of the Invention

[0008] According to the present invention, indirect revenues can be quantitatively presented in the formulation of decarbonization measures.

Brief Description of the Drawings

[0009]

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Embodiments for Carrying Out the Invention

[0010] Hereinafter, based on the drawings, one embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail. FIG. 1 is a system configuration diagram showing a configuration example of a simulation device 300 according to this embodiment. The simulation device 300 includes a KPI (Key Performance Indicators) tree 200, a dashboard 100, a target input unit 1, a policy plan selection unit 2, a financial information processing unit 10, a decision - making support unit 7, and a database 400.

[0011] The database 400 has various tables as described later and can store various data. The database 400 can store, for example, a decarbonization policy plan list 21 described later including at least one decarbonization policy plan (hereinafter referred to as "decarbonization policy plan") for the decarbonization target, and decarbonization policies and their introduction conditions.

[0012] Dashboard 100 is an example of an interface, and it displays forms such as a simulation screen related to the simulation by the determination support unit 7 and a condition input form for the simulation. Further, the dashboard 100 outputs a simulation result screen as a result of the simulation by the determination support unit 7 under the control of the determination support unit 7.

[0013] The dashboard 100 receives input of a decarbonization target (hereinafter referred to as the "decarbonization target") and a target related to financial balance (hereinafter referred to as the "financial balance target") by an operator such as a manager involved in the planning of decarbonization (hereinafter simply referred to as the "operator"). This dashboard 100 displays the determination result by the determination support unit 7 described later. Details of the dashboard 100 will be described later.

[0014] The KPI tree 200 shows, for example, a KPI tree that can be defined from a management perspective. The KPI tree 200 is displayed on the dashboard 100. Details of the KPI tree 200 will be described later.

[0015] The target input unit 1 receives input of a decarbonization target related to decarbonization and a financial balance target related to financial balance via the dashboard 100 (target input step), and registers information related to the decarbonization target and information related to the financial balance target in the database 400, respectively. Specifically, the target input unit 1 causes the dashboard 100 to display, for example, a predetermined form described later, and registers information related to the decarbonization target and the financial balance target input by the operator in the form in the database 400.

[0016] The policy plan selection unit 2 is an example of a condition setting unit, and sets the introduction conditions for decarbonization measures corresponding to the decarbonization policy plans for the decarbonization target (condition setting step). The policy plan selection unit 2 selects a decarbonization policy plan for the decarbonization target from the database 400 based on the introduction conditions of the decarbonization measures input by the operator in the above-described form. Note that the policy plan selection unit 2 can also newly create at least one of a decarbonization policy plan and its introduction conditions and register it in the database 400.

[0017] The policy plan selection unit 2 reads the decarbonization policy plan list 21 from the database 400 and selects any one of the plurality of decarbonization policy plans included in the decarbonization policy plan list 21. The decarbonization policy plan list 21 is a list including a plurality of decarbonization policy plans for achieving the decarbonization target. When a new decarbonization policy plan is added as described above, this new decarbonization policy is added to the list accordingly. In the present embodiment, as a decarbonization policy plan, for example, reducing CO2 by XX (XX: numerical value) tons as a CO2 emission reduction target (corresponding to "XXtCO2" in the figure) is exemplified. When considering all the effects of greenhouse gases (GHG: Green House Gas) other than CO2 (carbon dioxide), such as methane and nitrous oxide, XXtCO2-e, which means an emission amount equivalent to the CO2 emission amount, is used.

[0018] The financial information processing unit 10 calculates the direct revenues and expenditures when implementing the decarbonization measures under the above-described introduction conditions, and estimates the indirect revenues obtained as a result of non-financial information (financial information processing step). The "indirect revenues obtained as a result of non-financial information" mentioned here refers to other revenues not included in the direct revenues and expenditures when implementing the decarbonization measures under the above-described introduction conditions. Details of the financial information processing unit 10 will be described later.

[0019] When the decarbonization measures are implemented under the above-introduced conditions, the Decision Support Department 7 performs a simulation (decision support step) on whether the above-described financial balance target and decarbonization target are met, taking into account indirect revenues. The Decision Support Department 7 performs display control for a simulation screen described later, a form such as a condition input form for inputting conditions (effect simulation conditions described later) for executing this simulation, and a simulation result screen regarding the result of this simulation. In the present embodiment, these screens are also collectively referred to as "screens related to simulation". The dashboard 100 outputs a screen related to the simulation in the above-described decision support step (output step).

[0020] The details of the above-described Financial Information Processing Department 10 will be described. The Financial Information Processing Department 10 includes a Specification Calculation Department 3, a Rough Cost Calculation Department 4, a Rough Revenue Calculation Department 5, a Product Sales Target Calculation Department 51, an ESG Investment Capital Increase Impact Calculation Department 52 (indirect revenue estimation department), a Carbon Credit Calculation Department 54 (indirect revenue estimation department), a Profit Calculation Department 6, and a Risk Management Department 90 (indirect revenue estimation department). In the present embodiment, among these, the ESG Investment Capital Increase Impact Calculation Department 52, the Carbon Credit Calculation Department 54, and the Risk Management Department 90 are examples of indirect revenue estimation departments that estimate indirect revenues obtained as a result of non-financial information.

[0021] The Specification Calculation Department 3 outputs the detailed specifications of the decarbonization measure plan selected by the Measure Plan Selection Department 2. Here, as the detailed specifications of the decarbonization measure plan, for example, it can be exemplified that the power consumption is XX (XX: numerical value) kilowatts (``XX KW (kilowatts)''). The Specification Calculation Department 3 reads the specification calculation unit 31 from the CO2 emission reduction target. Here, in the present embodiment, the "unit" indicates, for example, the converted amount of CO2 emitted according to corporate activities.

[0022] The approximate cost calculation unit 4 reads a cost per unit table 41 based on the carbon tax market conditions and unit consumption 42 indicating the carbon tax market conditions and unit consumption, and calculates the approximate cost. The cost per unit table 41 includes, for example, information on installation costs, operation costs, and the degree of carbon tax reduction indicating the degree of carbon tax reduction.

[0023] The risk management unit 90 is an example of an indirect income estimation unit, and executes control for estimating indirect income obtained as a result of the above-described non-financial information. The non-financial information may include, for example, risks obtained by machine learning described later.

[0024] The risk management unit 90 manages at least one of a pessimistic risk and an optimistic risk that may affect when estimating indirect income (hereinafter sometimes abbreviated as "indirect income").

[0025] The risk management unit 90 may predict pessimistic and optimistic risks, for example, by machine learning using generative AI (Artificial Intelligence).

[0026] The risk management unit 90, for example, takes the production quantity of products of other companies competing with its own products and the scale of the market for the products as explanatory functions, and uses the pessimistic risk or the optimistic risk as the objective function to train a risk prediction model, and uses the trained risk prediction model to predict which risk (or how serious the risk) the future risk may be, whether it is a pessimistic risk or an optimistic risk.

[0027] Alternatively, the risk management unit 90 may perform risk management by other methods without using the generative AI.

[0028] As risk management regarding pessimistic risks, the risk management unit 90 first manages, for example, the risk that it becomes difficult to achieve the decarbonization target and the financial balance target because of the situation of other companies, for example, a competing company has launched a similar product.

[0029] As risk management for pessimistic risks, second, for example, the Risk Management Department 90 manages the risk that the power generation amount by the wind power generation installed in the company is lower than the initial prediction, the decarbonization effect is less than expected, and it becomes difficult to achieve the decarbonization target and the financial balance target.

[0030] As risk management for pessimistic risks, third, for example, due to geographical factors, the investment in the company does not grow as initially predicted, and the Risk Management Department 90 manages the risk that it becomes difficult to achieve the decarbonization target and the financial balance target.

[0031] When the pessimistic risks are managed by the Risk Management Department 90 in this way, the approximate revenue calculation unit 5 calculates the revenue in the direction of decreasing revenue. Also, the case where the examples cited here occur in combination can be handled.

[0032] On the other hand, as risk management for optimistic risks, for example, the Risk Management Department 90 manages the risk that the sunshine duration is more than usual and the power generation amount by the solar power generation installed in the company is more than normal.

[0033] When the optimistic risks are managed by the Risk Management Department 90 in this way, the approximate revenue calculation unit 5 calculates the revenue in the direction of increasing revenue. Also, the case where multiple optimistic risks occur in combination can be handled.

[0034] Based on at least one of the optimistic risks and pessimistic risks to be managed, the Risk Management Department 90 provides, for example, the ESG investment capital increase impact logic / unit 55 indicating the logic and unit that can affect the capital increase of ESG investment to the ESG investment capital increase impact calculation unit 52.

[0035] The ESG investment capital increase impact calculation unit 52 is an example of an indirect income estimation unit, and estimates the indirect income obtained as a result of the above-mentioned non-financial information. The ESG investment capital increase impact calculation unit 52 calculates investment impact information regarding the impact on the capital increase of ESG investment based on the ESG investment capital increase impact logic / unit cost 55, and estimates indirect income based on this investment impact information.

[0036] In addition, the risk management unit 90 provides, for example, the carbon credit market conditions and the transition unit cost 57 to the carbon credit calculation unit 54 based on at least one of the optimistic risk and pessimistic risk to be managed.

[0037] The carbon credit calculation unit 54 is an example of an indirect income estimation unit, and estimates the indirect income obtained as a result of the above-mentioned non-financial information. The carbon credit calculation unit 54 calculates carbon credits based on the carbon credit market conditions and the transition unit cost 57.

[0038] The product sales target calculation unit 51 calculates, for example, the operating profit to be targeted as the target of product sales.

[0039] The approximate income calculation unit 5 receives the product sales target from the product sales target calculation unit 51, receives the investment impact information regarding the impact on the capital increase of ESG investment from the ESG investment capital increase impact calculation unit 52, and receives carbon credits from the carbon credit calculation unit 54, thereby calculating the approximate income and outputting the approximate income to the profit calculation unit 6.

[0040] The profit calculation unit 6 calculates the approximate profit by subtracting the approximate cost calculated by the approximate cost calculation unit 4 from the approximate income calculated by the profit calculation unit 6.

[0041] The decision support unit 7 creates decision support information for supporting a decision from the approximate profit calculated by the profit calculation unit 6 based on the decision logic judgment criterion 71, and outputs it to the dashboard 100. The dashboard 100 displays the above-mentioned KPI tree 200 and, as an example of the decision support information, a simulation screen described later.

[0042] The operator refers to the KPI tree 200 and judgment support information on the simulation screen displayed on the dashboard 100, and sets decarbonization goals or formulates decarbonization plans.

[0043] Figure 2 is a diagram showing an example of the KPI tree 200. The KPI tree 200 has an operation KPI tree 601, decarbonization measures 602, and decarbonization and reduction goals 603. In the KPI tree 200, the following connection relationships are as follows. Note that in the following, "connection" means that when considering KPIs, the tip side of the arrow of the connection can affect the rear end side. First, profit (profit and loss) is connected to revenue and expenditure (cost).

[0044] Revenue is connected to operating revenue and non-operating revenue. Operating revenue is connected to sales. Sales are connected to Product A as an example of a product, Service B as an example of a service, etc. On the other hand, non-operating revenue is connected to investment and financing (ESG), stock revenue, carbon credits, subsidies, etc.

[0045] The operation KPI tree 601 has effects such as ESG disclosure, CFP (Carbon Foot Print) disclosure, and CO2 emission reduction as direct effects.

[0046] On the other hand, expenditure (cost) is connected to capital investment, operation cost, maintenance cost, raw fuel cost, labor cost, and carbon tax.

[0047] The decarbonization measures 602 include organization-level visualization, product-level visualization, renewable energy (energy) power purchase, process electrification, renewable energy (energy) introduction, production site change, production plan change, process change, raw material / part change, procurement source change, transportation method change, energy saving of in-house products, hydrogen / ammonia introduction, biomass introduction, CCUS (Carbon Capture Usage and Storage) introduction, hydrogen ironmaking, and product charging.

[0048] The decarbonization / reduction target 603 includes the overall, Scope 1 (direct emissions), Scope 2 (indirect emissions), and categories 1 to 15 of Scope 3 (others) (corresponding to "Cat1 to Cat15" shown in the figure). Note that Scope 1 to 3 indicate, for example, the indicators of greenhouse gas emissions in the supply chain related to products. Scope 1 indicates the direct emissions of greenhouse gases associated with business activities. Scope 2 indicates the indirect emissions of greenhouse gases in the manufacturing stage of heat and energy used in business activities. Scope 3 indicates the emissions of greenhouse gases indirectly emitted other than the above Scope 1 and Scope 2.

[0049] The arrow extending from the decarbonization / reduction target 603 to the decarbonization measure 602 indicates that the decarbonization / reduction target 603 at the rear end of the arrow affects the decarbonization measure 602 at the tip of the arrow. The arrow extending from the decarbonization measure 602 to the management KPI tree 601 indicates that the decarbonization measure at the rear end of the arrow affects the item at the tip of the arrow.

[0050] In the example shown in the figure, for example, "Scope 1 direct emissions" of the decarbonization / reduction target 603 affects, for example, "introduction of renewable energy" of the decarbonization measure 602, and the "introduction of renewable energy" affects, for example, "equipment investment" and "operation volume" of "cost" of "profit" in the management KPI tree 601.

[0051] Figure 3 is a diagram showing an example of the causal relationship of ESG activities on management. In the example shown in the figure, ESG activities are considered divided into "strategy" and "execution". "Strategy" leads to an increase in corporate brand value and access funds by disclosing medium- and long-term activity plans and implementation details. On the other hand, "execution" is the "execution" based on the plan, and can achieve specific cost reduction and GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emissions reduction. As a result, CC revenue and the like associated with GHG emissions reduction can also be expected. Note that the "plan" in the following description is connected to the medium- and long-term corporate value proposition, leading to an increase in product sales due to an improvement in brand value and an increase in access funds (investment).

[0052] The activity plan of the ESG strategy is related to the execution of ESG activities (steady execution based on the activity strategy) as a short-term effect, and is related to the disclosure of ESG activity strategies, plans, and execution details as a medium- to long-term effect.

[0053] The execution of ESG activities is related to ESG activity costs (corresponding to management KPIs), ESG activity revenues (corresponding to management KPIs), and ESG activity effects (corresponding to decarbonization KPIs). ESG activity costs (corresponding to management KPIs) are related to, for example, equipment introduction / operation, which is one of the operating revenues. ESG activity revenues are related to, for example, carbon tax reduction / carbon credit revenues, which are one of the non-operating revenues. ESG activity effects are related to energy reduction / GHG emission reduction and do not fall under operating or non-operating revenues.

[0054] On the other hand, ESG activity strategies, plans, and execution details are related to corporate brand value, improvement / risk reduction, and an increase in accessible funds. Corporate brand value, improvement / risk reduction are related to an increase in the sales of in-house products, which is one of the operating revenues. An increase in accessible funds is related to an increase in the sales of in-house products, which is one of the non-operating revenues.

[0055] Figure 4 is a diagram showing an example of a revenue prediction algorithm. In the illustrated example, it overcomes the difficulty of estimating the revenue part, presents an approximate estimate that enables strategic planning, and predicts at a granularity of about one year. Also, in the illustrated example, the effects are calculated by dividing the revenue from ESG activities into operating revenue and non-operating revenue.

[0056] "Operating revenue" leads to an increase in market share and prevention of defection from the company. Here, the baseline improvement is accounted for by the bottom-up portion at an annual rate or the like. "Non-operating revenue" is directly related to accessible funds, carbon credits, and subsidy acquisition in ESG activities. Note that "accessible funds" will be described later.

[0057] First, revenue includes operating revenue and non-operating revenue. Operating revenue includes sales. Sales are related to Product A as an example of a product, Service B as an example of a service, etc.

[0058] Product A, Service B, etc. are related to the improvement of the corporate brand value (for example, the increase in the switch to the company itself), which shows the effect that ESG activities are recognized and the share of the company's products increases, and this is expressed in terms of annual rate, etc.

[0059] Also, the improvement in the corporate brand value leads to a reduction in risk (for example, a decrease in the switch to other companies), which shows the effect that ESG activities are recognized and the number of customers leaving the company decreases, and this is expressed in terms of annual rate, etc.

[0060] On the other hand, non-operating revenue includes investment and financing of access funds (ESG), carbon credits, subsidies, etc., and others (interest, dividends, real estate, sales, license fees, litigation settlement amounts, foreign exchange gains, etc.).

[0061] The investment and financing of access funds are related to the average value of the company's ESG score, index, environmental score, maturity score, carbon credits, subsidies, etc. Here, these average values of the company's ESG score, etc. can affect the improvement of the corporate brand value and risk reduction mentioned above. These average values of the company's ESG score, etc. correspond to ESG and other resource units.

[0062] Carbon credits are related to the achievement volume relative to the target emission volume (for example, the company's own emission target volume based on NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution)), which can affect the above-mentioned carbon credit market conditions and transition unit 57. Subsidies, etc. are related to the participation plan in internal and external projects.

[0063] FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of an estimate of the increase in the non-ESG investment amount. In the illustrated example, for the access fund investment, it is linked to the company's "ESG score", and the investment amount is obtained by multiplying it by the unit quantity. In the following description, the "ESG investment unit quantity" is, for example, as follows. In this embodiment, an inductive method based on actual results and a deductive method useful for future prediction are used. The choice of which method to use is optional. In the case of the deductive method, the change in the ESG investment amount is multiplied by the company's industry type (for example, reflecting the degree of interest in ESG) and the investment ratio of the region (for example, reflecting the degree of interest in each region), and the investment amount unit quantity is obtained by prorating according to the company's business scale.

[0064] First, the access fund investment and financing (ESG) is related to the company's average ESG score, index, environmental score, and maturity score. These average ESG scores of the company, etc., correspond to the above-mentioned ESG investment unit quantity.

[0065] The company's average ESG score, etc., is related to the ESG score specification (for example, average value, specified period, etc.) by each evaluation feedback and the company's environmental activity evaluation and maturity score based on the questionnaire. Here, the ESG score is provided with a function of calculating the results of ESG activities based on the "ESG score" by a third-party institution. Also, the environmental maturity score obtained by the environmental activity evaluation by the questionnaire method or the like can be utilized.

[0066] On the other hand, the ESG investment unit quantity is related to the functional method and the deductive method. The functional method uses the past performance table. This past performance table includes, for example, the ESG score vs. investment amount of the company and other peer companies in the past.

[0067] On the other hand, the deductive method uses the company's business scale. This company's business scale includes the share in the industry. The company's venue scale is affected by the change in the ESG investment amount of investors (for example, the change and prediction of the ESG investment amount worldwide), the ESG investment ratio for the company's industry type (for example, the investment ratio of the business owner to the total investment), and the ESG investment ratio of the business target region (for example, the regional ratio of the business target area to the total ESG investment).

[0068] Figure 6 is a diagram showing an example of predicting the unit price of ESG investment income using a deductive method. First, in this embodiment, the "ESG investment unit price" is obtained by multiplying the growth of the interest in ESG investment (ESG investment amount) based on the base year (year 0), and then multiplying the proportion of the company's industry and the proportion of the region based on this, to calculate the income amount (expected) of the ESG investment amount for the company. Therefore, the "ESG investment unit price" represents the normal ESG income amount that can be expected if the company conducts ESG activities at the same level as other companies.

[0069] In the example of predicting the unit price of ESG investment income using a deductive method, as shown in the lower graph of the figure, it shows the state where the estimated unit price of the ESG invested amount grows annually (0 - 5).

[0070] Figure 7 is a diagram showing an example of the predicted value of the access funds (ESG). The prediction of the access funds (ESG) is obtained by multiplying the unit price of the ESG invested amount shown in Figure 6 described above by the representative value (index) of the ESG points issued by a third - party institution. A simulation is performed on the situation where the ESG point index fluctuates from year to year. In the example shown in the figure, according to the company's ESG points, the actual ESG investment amount fluctuates relative to the estimate.

[0071] Here, an example of the quantitative judgment logic of income in this embodiment will be described. In this embodiment, the effects on the decarbonization KPI and the management KPI due to the introduction of renewable energy (renewable energy) are examined.

[0072] In this embodiment, (1) Regarding the decarbonization KPI, conversely, the amount of measures to be introduced required for the decarbonization target is calculated. In this embodiment, when the introduction of solar cells is set to XXX (XXX: numerical value) kilowatts ( "XXX_KW"), for example, the decarbonization reduction amount AA [tons] = XX (XX: numerical value) kWh × YY (YY: year) × ZZ (ZZ: numerical value) [tons] / kW.

[0073] In addition, in this embodiment, for the (2) management KPI, "Profit and Loss" = "Revenue" - "Expenses", that is, (Increase (maintenance) amount of order received for Product A + Contribution of additional investment + Contribution of share income + CC + Subsidy) - (Facility investment + Operating expenses + Maintenance expenses - Carbon tax) = BB (BB: amount) ￥ (Japanese yen).

[0074] In this embodiment, the final judgment logic for the judgment criteria for implementing measures is as follows. There are two of them. In the first judgment logic, it is judged based on the profitability of the business. In the first judgment logic, it is not a single year, but a recovery plan. If BB > 0 ￥, it shall be executed. On the other hand, if BB < 0 ￥, it shall not be executed or it shall be an administrative decision. As an administrative decision, for example, even if it results in a deficit, if it is very small compared to the company scale (or within the range regarded as an acceptable investment), or if it is judged to be implemented even with a deficit in anticipation of future prospects, it can be cited as an execution case.

[0075] In the second judgment logic, it is judged based on the effect of investment on decarbonization. In the second judgment logic, the investment amount per unit of CO2 reduction is evaluated. If it is higher than the carbon tax rate, it shall not be executed (in some cases, it may be executed), and if it is lower, it shall be executed. BB (BB: amount) ￥ (Japanese yen) / AA (AA: numerical value) [tons of CO2] > Carbon tax rate

[0076] The simulation device 300 has the above configuration. Next, an example of the simulation screen 500 displayed on the dashboard 100 of the simulation device 300 will be described.

[0077] Figs. 8 to 10 are diagrams showing an example of the simulation screen 500 respectively. This simulation screen 500 is an example of a screen related to simulation and is displayed on the dashboard 100 shown in Fig. 1. In this embodiment, using this simulation screen 500, a simulation is executed on the effect of measures ("decarbonization measures") to be taken when considering the decarbonization target and the financial balance target.

[0078] In the simulation screen 500 shown in FIG. 8, a decarbonization measure plan list 510 is arranged at the lower right, an emission reduction details column 520 is arranged at the upper right, an emission reduction target scope target input column 530 is arranged at the lower left, and a GHG emission breakdown column 540 is arranged at the upper left.

[0079] In the decarbonization measure plan list 510, cursors 501 corresponding to a plurality of decarbonization measures are arranged vertically, and any one of the cursors can be selected. The illustrated example shows a state where "consider changing the procurement source" is selected.

[0080] The simulation screen 500 presents a plurality of introduction conditions and displays (display step) including the execution result of the simulation when implementing decarbonization measures based on a predetermined introduction condition selected from the plurality of introduction conditions.

[0081] Specifically, when the operator clicks on any one of the cursors 501 of the decarbonization measures (for example, "consider changing the procurement source"), as shown in FIG. 9, a condition input form 550 (corresponding to a decarbonization measure details input screen described later) for inputting effect simulation conditions as an example of the introduction conditions of the decarbonization measures is displayed.

[0082] In this condition input form 550, at the upper left, as an effect simulation condition, for example, a display 554 of the selected "consider changing the procurement source" is provided, in the center in the left - right direction, the current procurement status column 555 is displayed, and on the right side, a procurement source change scenario input column 556 is displayed.

[0083] In the current procurement status column 555, above it, the target product, target part, and total GHG emissions are displayed, and below it, at least one procurement source manufacturer (corresponding to the "procurement manufacturer" shown in the figure) is displayed. Here, as the procurement source manufacturers, for example, in addition to Company A and Company B, Company C is included.

[0084] On one side, in the procurement source change scenario input field 556, a display field 553 for inputting the scenario name, GHG emission reduction target, and GHG emissions is displayed above it. On the lower right of it, an add button 552 for adding a procurement source and performing a simulation is displayed. On the upper right of it, a calculation execution button 551 for executing the simulation is displayed.

[0085] Here, as shown in the scenario name, when it is set to reduce the procurement volume from Company B and procure parts from Company D instead of Company C's parts, as a result of the simulation, "12tCO2e" is displayed as the GHG emission reduction target and "41tCO2e" is displayed as the GHG emissions. In this embodiment, "t" indicates "ton" of weight. In this embodiment, since it is determined that the result of this simulation, for example, clears the decarbonization target, as a display 556A to that effect, for example, "Emission target cleared" is displayed.

[0086] Also, in the decarbonization measure list 510, a new reduction method registration button 502 is displayed at the lower part. This new reduction method registration button 502 is pressed when registering a new reduction method as the above-mentioned cursor. When the new reduction method registration button 592 is pressed, a form for inputting a new reduction method is displayed, and it becomes possible to register a new reduction method. The registered new reduction method is additionally displayed as the cursor of the decarbonization measure list 21.

[0087] On the one hand, the emission reduction details column 520 shown in FIG. 8 is a display area where the emission source can be identified. For example, Tier0 - Tier2 are displayed according to the destinations such as for Europe, for Asia, and for North America. Tier0 indicates the target product. Here, the product PSCN is exemplified. Tier1 shows the part name and quantity (weight) [g] for each part ID (Identifier) of the components that make up the target product. Here, as the target part name, "XXX unit" is displayed in a highlighted manner, for example, as a part with problems in achieving the decarbonization target. Tier2 shows the part name and quantity (weight) [g] for each part ID of each component. Here, as the target part name, "YYY panel" is displayed in a highlighted manner, for example, as a part with problems in achieving the decarbonization target.

[0088] The emission reduction target scope input column 530 has a target scope selection column 531A, a target category selection column 531B, and a target value column 532. By clicking on the target scope selection column 531, a plurality of scopes to be targeted are displayed in the form of a pull - down menu, and any scope can be selected (in the illustrated example, "Scope3" is selected).

[0089] By clicking on the target category selection column 531B, a plurality of categories to be targeted are displayed in the form of a pull - down menu, and any category can be selected (in the illustrated example, "Cat1 (Category 1)").

[0090] The target value column 532 is an input column for entering the target value corresponding to the scope selected in the target scope selection column 531 and the category selected in the target category selection column 531B. Simulations are executed according to these input contents.

[0091] The breakdown column 540 of GHG emissions shows the breakdown of GHG emissions as a result of executing a simulation for the decarbonization measures corresponding to the cursor selected in the decarbonization measure list 510, for example, regarding Company X, according to the input content in the emission reduction target scope input column 530.

[0092] In the illustrated example, for example, the percentages of emissions related to Category 1 of Scope 1, Scope 2, Scope 3 (corresponding to "Cat1" shown in the figure), and Category 11 of Scope 3 (corresponding to "Cat11" shown in the figure) are displayed.

[0093] When the simulation result is displayed in the display column 553 in the condition input form 550 shown in Figure 9, pressing the display column 553 will display a simulation result screen 560 showing the detailed content of the effect simulation result shown in Figure 10.

[0094] The simulation result screen 560 displays the above-mentioned scenario, the solution to be introduced, the cost prediction, and the revenue prediction in the display column 561 on the left side. This revenue prediction includes indirect revenue.

[0095] The simulation result screen 560 displays, in the display column 562 at the center in the left-right direction, as the simulation results of the carbon dioxide emissions per year, the case without countermeasures and the case where the simulation is executed in at least one scenario (in the illustrated example, the cases of Scenario (1) and Scenario (2)). These Scenario (1) and Scenario (2) show the scenarios when the decarbonization measure plan is adopted under the selected introduction conditions.

[0096] In the illustrated example, it can be visually seen that adopting Scenario (2) is more effective in suppressing carbon dioxide emissions than adopting Scenario (1), which is more effective in suppressing carbon dioxide emissions than the case without countermeasures.

[0097] The simulation result screen 560 shows, for example, the financial balance target. In the display column 563 on the right side thereof, as the simulation results of the annual revenue, the cases without any countermeasures and the cases where the simulation is executed with at least one scenario (in the illustrated example, the cases of scenario (1) and scenario (2)) are displayed. In the illustrated example, the higher it extends upward, the higher the revenue is, and the lower it extends downward, the higher the cost is.

[0098] In the illustrated example, it can be visually understood that adopting scenario (2) is more effective in increasing the revenue than adopting scenario (1), which is more effective in suppressing the carbon dioxide emissions than the case without any countermeasures. At the same time, in scenarios (1) and (2), although the cost is higher than that without any countermeasures, the revenue exceeds the increase in the cost, so it can be seen that these are the scenarios to be implemented.

[0099] As described above, the simulation device 300 according to the present embodiment includes a target input unit 1 for inputting a decarbonization target related to decarbonization and a financial balance target related to the financial balance, a measure plan selection unit 2 for setting the introduction conditions of decarbonization measures corresponding to the decarbonization target, a financial information processing unit 10 for calculating the direct revenue and expenditure when implementing the decarbonization measures under the introduction conditions and estimating the indirect revenue obtained as a result of non-financial information, and a determination support unit 7 for executing a simulation regarding whether the financial balance target and the decarbonization target are satisfied in consideration of the indirect revenue when implementing the decarbonization measures under the introduction conditions, and a dashboard 100 for outputting a screen related to the simulation by the determination support unit 7.

[0100] The simulation method according to this embodiment includes a target input step in which the target input unit 1 receives the input of a decarbonization target related to decarbonization and a financial balance target related to the financial balance, a condition setting step in which the measure plan selection unit 2 sets the introduction conditions of decarbonization measures corresponding to the decarbonization target, a financial information processing step in which the financial information processing unit 10 calculates the direct income and expenditure when implementing the decarbonization measures under the introduction conditions and estimates the indirect income obtained as a result of non-financial information, a determination support step in which the determination support unit 7 executes a simulation regarding whether the financial balance target and the decarbonization target are satisfied in consideration of the indirect income when implementing the decarbonization measures under the above introduction conditions, and an output step of outputting a screen regarding the simulation by the determination support step to the dashboard 100.

[0101] By doing so, since the indirect income can be quantitatively presented in the formulation of decarbonization measures, it can contribute to the agreement by operators such as managers.

[0102] In this embodiment, the financial information processing unit 10 has a risk management unit 90 (mainly exemplified by an ESG investment capital increase impact calculation unit 52 and a carbon credit calculation unit 54) that estimates the indirect income obtained as a result of non-financial information in the financial information processing step. By doing so, the decarbonization measures can be formulated based not only on the direct income but also on the quantitative indirect income.

[0103] In this embodiment, the risk management unit 90 manages at least one of the pessimistic risk and the optimistic risk that may affect when estimating the above-mentioned indirect income. By doing so, the decarbonization measures can be formulated in consideration of such risks.

[0104] In this embodiment, the risk management unit 90 predicts the pessimistic risk and the optimistic risk by machine learning in the financial information processing step. By doing so, the decarbonization measures can be formulated based on the risks according to the results of machine learning.

[0105] In this embodiment, when the risk management unit 90 manages pessimistic risks in the financial information processing step, the approximate revenue calculation unit 5 calculates the revenue in the direction of decreasing revenue, while when the risk management unit 90 manages optimistic risks, the approximate revenue calculation unit 5 calculates the revenue in the direction of increasing revenue. By doing so, decarbonization measures can be formulated according to the risks managed by the risk management unit 90.

[0106] In this embodiment, the screen related to the simulation is displayed in a display mode that presents a plurality of introduction conditions and includes the execution result of the simulation when decarbonization measures are implemented based on a predetermined introduction condition selected from the plurality of introduction conditions in the display step.

[0107] Note that the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and includes various modifications and equivalent configurations within the scope of the appended claims. For example, the above-described embodiments have been described in detail for easy understanding of the present invention, and the present invention is not necessarily limited to those having all the configurations described. Also, each element described in parallel in this embodiment may be in a mode in which at least one of the elements is connected in series to another element.

Industrial Applicability

[0108] The present invention can be applied to a simulation device for a technique of presenting a decarbonization measure plan according to a decarbonization target.

Explanation of Reference Numerals

[0109] 1... Target input unit, 2... Measure plan selection unit, 3... Specification calculation unit, 4... Approximate cost calculation unit, 5... Approximate revenue calculation unit, 6... Profit calculation unit, 7... Judgment support unit, 51... Product sales target calculation unit, 52... ESG investment capital increase impact calculation unit, 90... Risk management unit, 100... Dashboard, 200... KPI tree, 300... Simulation device

Claims

1. A target input unit that inputs a decarbonization target related to decarbonization and a financial balance target related to financial balance, A condition setting unit that sets the introduction conditions of decarbonization measures corresponding to the decarbonization target, A financial information processing unit that calculates the direct revenues and expenditures when the decarbonization measures are implemented under the introduction conditions and estimates the indirect revenues obtained as a result of non-financial information, A judgment support unit that executes a simulation on whether the financial balance target and the decarbonization target are met under the introduction conditions when the decarbonization measures are implemented, taking into account the indirect revenues, An interface that outputs a screen related to the simulation by the judgment support unit, A simulation device characterized by comprising the above.

2. The financial information processing unit, An indirect revenue estimation unit that estimates the indirect revenues obtained as a result of the non-financial information The simulation device according to claim 1, characterized by comprising the above.

3. The indirect revenue estimation unit, Manages at least one of the pessimistic risk and the optimistic risk that may affect when estimating the indirect revenue The simulation device according to claim 2, characterized by comprising the above.

4. The indirect revenue estimation unit, Predicts the pessimistic risk and the optimistic risk by machine learning The simulation device according to claim 3, characterized by comprising the above.

5. The financial information processing unit, When the pessimistic risk is managed by the indirect revenue estimation unit, calculates the revenue in the direction of decreasing revenue, while when the optimistic risk is managed by the indirect revenue estimation unit, calculates the revenue in the direction of increasing revenue The simulation device according to claim 3, characterized by comprising the above.

6. The screen related to the simulation by the judgment support unit, Presents a plurality of the introduction conditions and includes the execution result of the simulation when the decarbonization measures are implemented based on a predetermined introduction condition selected from the plurality of the introduction conditions The simulation device according to claim 1, characterized by comprising the above.

7. A target input step in which the target input unit receives the input of a decarbonization target related to decarbonization and a financial balance target related to financial balance, A condition setting step in which the condition setting unit sets the introduction conditions of decarbonization measures corresponding to the decarbonization target, A financial information processing step of calculating direct revenues and expenditures when the decarbonization measures are implemented under the introduction conditions, and estimating indirect revenues obtained as a result of non-financial information; A judgment support step in which a judgment support unit executes a simulation on whether the financial balance target and the decarbonization target are met under the introduction conditions, taking into account the indirect revenue; An output step of outputting a screen related to the simulation by the judgment support step to an interface; A simulation method characterized by comprising the above.

8. In the financial information processing step, an indirect revenue estimation unit estimates indirect revenue obtained as a result of the non-financial information The simulation method according to claim 7, characterized in that.

9. The indirect revenue estimation unit manages at least one of the pessimistic risk and the optimistic risk that may affect the estimation of the indirect revenue The simulation method according to claim 8, characterized in that.

10. The indirect revenue estimation unit predicts the pessimistic risk and the optimistic risk by machine learning The simulation method according to claim 9, characterized in that.

11. The financial information processing unit calculates the revenue in the direction of decreasing revenue when the pessimistic risk is managed by the indirect revenue estimation unit, and calculates the revenue in the direction of increasing revenue when the optimistic risk is managed by the indirect revenue estimation unit The simulation method according to claim 9, characterized in that.

12. On the screen related to the simulation by the judgment support unit, a display step is executed to present a plurality of the introduction conditions and display the execution result of the simulation when the decarbonization measures are implemented based on a predetermined introduction condition selected from the plurality of introduction conditions The simulation method according to claim 7, characterized in that.

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