Earthquake rescue-requiring-person location estimation system

Abstract

To enable estimating a location of people requiring rescue during an earthquake without the people requiring rescue having to request rescue by themselves, and to achieve it by keeping costs down.SOLUTION: Provided is an earthquake rescue-requiring-person location estimation system 1 that estimates a location of people requiring rescue after an earthquake occurs, comprising: a building damage level estimation unit 35 for estimating a level of damage to buildings in each of a plurality of areas within a region which is an estimation target based on the intensity of seismic motion; a rescue-requiring-person number estimation unit 37 that estimates the number of people requiring rescue in each of the plurality of areas based on the level of damage to buildings in that areas and the number of people staying in that areas, which is the number of people whose positions have not changed; and a rescue-requiring-person information display unit 39 that displays information related to the number of people requiring rescue for each of the plurality of areas.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a system for estimating the position of a person requiring rescue during an earthquake, which estimates the position of a person requiring rescue after an earthquake occurs. [Background technology]

[0002] It is known that the majority of human casualties during an earthquake are people being crushed to death by collapsing buildings. It is said that the survival rate drops significantly after 72 hours have passed since the disaster, so it is important to rescue those in need as quickly as possible after an earthquake occurs. For example, Patent Document 1 describes a configuration that includes a nearby mobile terminal search means that, when a rescue request is made from a mobile terminal (mobile phone terminal) for a person requiring rescue, searches for mobile terminals for rescue personnel that are near the person requiring rescue based on location information for the person requiring rescue included in the rescue request and location information for mobile terminals for rescue personnel stored in a location history DB; a rescue information creation and provision means that generates rescue request information including information about the person requiring rescue and transmits the rescue request to the mobile terminals for rescue personnel that have been found; and a navigation information provision means that transmits information for navigation, including an image of a search route to the person requiring rescue, to the mobile terminals of rescue personnel who respond to the rescue request by saying that they are able to rescue them. In Patent Document 1, the person to be rescued must basically send a rescue request from their own mobile phone terminal. However, if the person to be rescued is trapped under a collapsed building, the person may be in a serious condition and it may be difficult for them to send a rescue request themselves. Even if the person to be rescued is not seriously injured, they may be in a situation where it is difficult for them to move, and in this case, it may be difficult for them to send a rescue request themselves.

[0003] In contrast, Patent Document 2 describes a wearable terminal that includes a biosensor that measures a user's biometric information, a communication feasibility determination unit that determines whether a communication terminal that transmits the biometric information measured by the biosensor to an external device is in a communication-disabled state in which the user's biometric information cannot be transmitted to the external device, and a change detection unit that detects whether a change has occurred to the user or the environment in which the user is located based on the biometric information or other information, and that transmits a beacon signal including the biometric information and location information when the communication feasibility determination unit determines that a communication-disabled state exists and the change detection unit determines that a change has occurred to the user or the environment in which the user is located. If a user wears a wearable device such as that described in Patent Document 2, when a building collapses during an earthquake, injuring the user and changing their biometric information, the biometric information and location information are transmitted via smartphone to a fire station, hospital, etc., eliminating the need for the user to issue a rescue request. However, if such wearable devices were to be distributed to all users within an area of a certain size, for example, the introduction and operation of such devices would be extremely costly depending on the population of the area. Patent Document 3 also describes a configuration that includes a route calculation means that, when one of the fire detectors detects the occurrence of a fire and a human body detector (human presence sensor) detects the presence of a person in need of rescue, calculates a route from the detected position of the rescuer terminal to the person in need of rescue by referring to map information based on position information from a terminal position detection device; a rescue route determination means that determines as a rescue route a route that does not pass through dangerous areas and has the fewest areas with caution on the route; and a transmission means that transmits information showing the determined rescue route on a map to the rescuer terminal. In Patent Document 3, although the system is intended for fires, it is configured to operate even during earthquakes, and by distributing the above-mentioned motion sensors in multiple locations within a predetermined area inside a building, it is possible to determine whether there are people in need of rescue based on the information from the motion sensors when the building collapses during an earthquake. However, if one were to attempt to distribute such motion sensors throughout the interiors of all buildings within an area of a certain size, for example, the introduction and operation of such sensors would require a very large amount of cost depending on the number of buildings.

[0004] There is a demand for a system for estimating the location of a person needing rescue during an earthquake, which can estimate the location of a person needing rescue without the person needing rescue themselves having to request rescue, and which can be implemented at low cost. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0005] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2009-157485 [Patent Document 2] Japanese Patent Publication No. 2022-86377 [Patent Document 3] Japanese Patent Publication No. 2023-26167 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0006] The problem that this invention aims to solve is to provide a system for estimating the location of a person in need of rescue during an earthquake, which can estimate the location of a person in need of rescue during an earthquake without the person in need of rescue having to request rescue themselves, and which can be implemented at a low cost. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] The inventors developed this invention as a system for estimating the location of people needing rescue during an earthquake, which estimates the location of people needing rescue after an earthquake occurs.The inventors focused on the fact that the number of people needing rescue can be estimated by multiplying the number of buildings that are completely or partially destroyed within a specific area, estimated from the strength of the seismic motion, by the number of people who remain and whose locations have not changed, based on resident location information (mobile device location information) obtained from a data distribution provider. In order to solve the above problems, the present invention employs the following means. In other words, the system for estimating the location of persons requiring rescue during an earthquake of the present invention is a system for estimating the location of persons requiring rescue during an earthquake after the occurrence of an earthquake, and is characterized by comprising: a building damage level estimation unit that estimates the level of damage to buildings in each of a plurality of areas within the area to be estimated based on the intensity of seismic motion; a number of persons requiring rescue estimation unit that estimates the number of persons requiring rescue in each of the plurality of areas based on the level of damage to the buildings in that area and the number of people stranded in that area, which is the number of people whose location has not changed; and a person information display unit that displays information regarding the number of persons requiring rescue for each of the plurality of areas. According to the above configuration, the degree of damage to buildings in each of a plurality of regions within the estimation target area is estimated based on the intensity of the earthquake motion, and the number of people needing rescue is estimated based on the degree of damage to the buildings and the number of people stranded, which is the number of people whose positions have not changed. Information about the estimated number of people needing rescue is then displayed for each of the plurality of regions. This series of processes does not require rescue requests from the people needing rescue. Therefore, it is possible to estimate and display the number of people needing rescue and in which regions they are located, even if the people needing rescue do not request rescue themselves. The number of people whose location remains unchanged, which is used in the above process, can be easily obtained by, for example, obtaining GPS data from each person's smart device from a mobile terminal carrier, etc., and extracting identification number information whose location information does not change over time. To perform such processing, there is no need to distribute any devices to residents in the target area in advance. Furthermore, there is no need to install, for example, motion sensors in each building in the area. In this way, since there is no need to install special equipment in advance to realize a system for estimating the location of people in need of rescue during an earthquake, the high costs required for implementation and operation are reduced. In this way, it is possible to provide a system for estimating the location of a person needing rescue during an earthquake, which can estimate the location of a person needing rescue without the person needing rescue requesting rescue themselves, and which can be implemented at low cost.

[0008] In one aspect of the present invention, the building damage extent estimation unit estimates the number of buildings that are completely or partially destroyed in each of the multiple areas as the degree of damage to the buildings, and the rescue-requiring-person number estimation unit calculates the building occupancy density in each of the multiple areas by dividing the population living in buildings in that area by the number of buildings in that area, and estimates the number of people requiring rescue by multiplying the building occupancy rate, which is the proportion of people trapped in buildings calculated based on the number of people trapped, by the number of the completely or partially destroyed buildings and the building occupancy density. With this configuration, the number of buildings that are completely or partially destroyed can be estimated as the degree of damage to buildings in each of the multiple regions, the population living in the buildings in that region can be divided by the number of buildings in that region to calculate the building occupancy density, which is the number of people per building, and the number of residents of completely or partially destroyed buildings can be calculated by multiplying the number of completely or partially destroyed buildings by the building occupancy density.The number of people who are thought to be trapped in completely or partially destroyed buildings among the number of residents of completely or partially destroyed buildings can be calculated as the number of people needing rescue by multiplying the number of completely or partially destroyed buildings and the building occupancy density in each of the multiple regions by the building retention rate, which is the proportion of people trapped in buildings calculated based on the number of people trapped.

[0009] In one aspect of the present invention, the rescue-needing-person-number estimation unit calculates the number of people remaining in each of the multiple areas as the number of data points for which location information does not change over a certain period of time based on resident location information within the area obtained from outside, and calculates the in-building retention rate by dividing the number of people remaining by the normal number of people, which is the number of people who are thought to be located in the area under normal conditions. With this configuration, the number of residents can be calculated as the number of data points for which location information does not change over a certain period of time based on resident location information within the area obtained from outside, and the number of residents can be set to an appropriate value. Furthermore, by dividing the number of people trapped by the normal number of people, which is the number of people who are thought to be in the area under normal circumstances, it is possible to appropriately calculate the proportion of people trapped inside the building as the building trapped rate, which makes it possible to efficiently estimate the number of people needing rescue. [Effects of the Invention]

[0010] According to the present invention, it is possible to provide a system for estimating the location of a person in need of rescue during an earthquake, which can estimate the location of a person in need of rescue without the person in need of rescue requesting rescue themselves, and which can be implemented at low cost. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0011] [Figure 1] 1 is a diagram showing the configuration of a rescue-requiring person position estimation system during an earthquake according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 2] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of location information of a smart device transmitted from a computer device on the data provider side. [Figure 3] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of information registered in a database. [Figure 4] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of a target area that is divided into a mesh into a plurality of regions and that is stored in a database. [Figure 5] This is a graph showing the correlation between the measured seismic intensity and the rate of complete or partial destruction of wooden buildings by construction age. [Figure 6] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of a movement history of GPS position information. [Figure 7] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example in which information relating to the number of rescue recipients is displayed in multiple regions according to the number of rescue recipients. [Figure 8] 10 is a flowchart showing the flow of a method for estimating the number of people needing rescue, which is performed using the system for estimating the location of people needing rescue during an earthquake as described above. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0012] The present invention is a system for estimating the location of people needing rescue after an earthquake occurs. This system estimates the number of people needing rescue in a specific area based on the degree of damage to buildings estimated from the intensity of seismic motion and the number of people stranded, which is the number of people whose location has not changed based on resident location information (mobile device location information) obtained from a data distribution provider. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS Hereinafter, with reference to the accompanying drawings, an embodiment for carrying out a system for estimating the position of a person in need of rescue in an earthquake according to the present invention will be described based on the drawings. FIG. 1 shows the configuration of a system for estimating the location of a person in need of rescue during an earthquake according to an embodiment of the present invention. The system 1 for estimating the location of a person requiring rescue during an earthquake is designed to estimate the location of a person requiring rescue after an earthquake occurs. The system 1 detects the location information of smart devices, such as smartphones and tablet terminals, located within the area to be estimated, and estimates the location of the person requiring rescue. The location information of smart devices is provided by data providers, such as mobile terminal carriers (so-called mobile communication operators) that handle communications via smart devices, and data providers that provide data using data obtained from mobile terminal carriers. Data providers obtain the location information of smart devices, i.e., the location information of smart devices, based on the GPS data obtained from each smart device. The system for estimating the location of rescue recipients during an earthquake 1 comprises a computer terminal such as a server, a personal computer, or a tablet terminal, and performs required functions by executing a preset program. The system for estimating the location of rescue recipients during an earthquake 1 functionally comprises a communication unit 31, an earthquake information acquisition unit 32, a location information acquisition unit 33, a database 38, a seismic motion estimation unit 34, a building damage level estimation unit 35, a number of rescue recipients estimation unit 37, and a rescue recipient information display unit 39.

[0013] The communication unit 31 communicates data between the computer device 2 on the earthquake information provider side and the computer device 5 on the data provider side via the network 100. Here, the network 100 is, for example, a public wireless network or the like that can communicate wirelessly with the system for estimating the location of rescue recipients in an earthquake 1. The earthquake information acquisition unit 32 acquires earthquake information data distributed when an earthquake occurs from a computer device 2 on the side of an organization that provides earthquake information (for example, the Japan Meteorological Agency) via the network 100 and the communication unit 31. The earthquake information data includes information such as the time of occurrence of the earthquake, magnitude, and epicenter location (latitude, longitude, depth).

[0014] The location information acquisition unit 33 acquires smart device location information indicating the location information of the smart device from the computer device 5 on the data provider side via the network 100 and the communication unit 31. The acquisition of smart device location information is performed, for example, at preset time intervals (e.g., every minute, every 10 minutes, every 30 minutes, every hour, etc.) after the occurrence of an earthquake. The acquisition of smart device location information may also be performed at preset time intervals during normal times, regardless of whether an earthquake has occurred. In this embodiment, smart device location information is acquired during normal times and used to calculate the number of daytime location information pieces and the number of nighttime location information pieces, which will be described later. FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of location information of a smart device transmitted from a computer device on the data provider side. The location information of the smart device transmitted from the computer device 5 on the data provider's side includes, for example, IDs (identification number information) individually assigned to multiple pre-registered users, the time when the GPS data of each user's smart device was acquired, the latitude and longitude of the smart device's location when the GPS data was acquired, and the age of the pre-registered user. In this way, the location information acquisition unit 33 acquires the location information of smart devices as resident location information of the area targeted by the earthquake rescue person location estimation system 1 from the smart devices owned by each person residing in the targeted area via the computer device 5 on the data provider's side.

[0015] The database 38 stores various data required for the system 1 for estimating the position of a rescue recipient during an earthquake to execute processing for estimating the position of a rescue recipient. FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of information stored in the database. Database 38 stores mesh information regarding the mesh division of the target area in which rescue-requiring person position estimation system 1 estimates the location of the rescue-requiring person, resident information regarding the residents residing in each mesh-divided area, building information regarding the buildings located in each area, etc. As will be described later, database 38 is based on geographic information of the target area, and from this perspective, it can be said that database 38 stores GIS (Geographic Information System) data. This database 38 is constructed and maintained in advance before using system 1 for estimating the location of a rescue-requiring person in an earthquake.

[0016] FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of a target area that is divided into a plurality of mesh regions and stored in a database. Database 38 stores, as mesh information, map information M of area A, which is the target of estimation of the requester's position, and mesh division information that divides area A into a plurality of areas Z. More specifically, database 38 stores, in advance, as mesh information, coordinates of the four corners of each area Z, mesh size (e.g., 100 m, 250 m, 500 m, etc.), ground conditions of each area Z, etc. It is desirable to use the mesh division determined by the government or other authorities. In this case, the mesh size is determined by selecting from the determined mesh size. The coordinates of the four corners of area Z are also determined by determining the mesh size. The ground conditions may be set based on data published by a public institution, for example, or based on independently obtained ground survey results, etc.

[0017] Here, it is preferable to determine the mesh size of each area Z so that the number (density) of smart device users (residents) who may be rescue recipients located within each area Z is neither too small nor too large. More precisely, it is more preferable to calculate the number of people during normal times (i.e., the number of daytime location information and the number of nighttime location information), as described below, and determine the mesh size so that this number is equal to or greater than a certain value for each area Z over multiple periods (e.g., at least one week). For this reason, the mesh size of each area Z may be varied depending on the population density, such as urban or rural areas. Furthermore, while FIG. 4 illustrates a state in which an area A within a certain limited range is divided into meshes, the database 38 may register a wider area (e.g., the entire country of Japan, each prefecture, each city, town, and village) as the area A to be handled by the earthquake rescue recipient location estimation system 1, and the state in which this area A is divided into meshes.

[0018] As shown in FIG. 3 , the database 38 stores information about buildings located within each region Z. More specifically, the database 38 stores the number of buildings located within each region Z, sorted by construction year. When an earthquake occurs, the system for estimating the location of rescue recipients during an earthquake 1 estimates the number of buildings that are completely or partially destroyed in each region Z and, based on this, estimates the number of people requiring rescue. It is known that wooden buildings are more likely to be damaged or collapse during an earthquake than buildings of other structures, such as reinforced concrete, precast concrete, and steel frame structures, and that many people are crushed to death due to building collapse. Therefore, the system for estimating the location of rescue recipients during an earthquake 1 specifically targets wooden buildings and calculates the number of completely or partially destroyed wooden buildings as the number of buildings that are completely or partially destroyed. For this reason, the database 38 of this embodiment registers the number of wooden buildings located in each area Z by construction year as the number of buildings located in each area Z by construction year. Such numbers of wooden buildings by construction age can be obtained, for example, from data held by local governments.

[0019] In addition, the database 38 stores the number of daytime location information items and the number of nighttime location information items within each area Z as resident information related to the residents residing within each area Z. The number of daytime location information and the number of nighttime location information are based on the location information of smart devices as resident location information obtained from the data provider's computer device 5, and are calculated based on a preset time period. The number of location information of smart devices located within each area Z during normal daytime and nighttime conditions, i.e., the number of users located within each area Z, is measured over multiple periods, and the average value over multiple periods is registered for each area Z. In other words, the number of daytime location information and the number of nighttime location information can be said to be the normal number of people, which is the number of people who are thought to be located in each area Z under normal conditions when no earthquake has occurred.

[0020] Furthermore, the database 38 registers the daytime building resident population and the nighttime building resident population within each area Z as the population residing in the building. As described above, this embodiment particularly targets wooden buildings, and calculates the number of completely or partially destroyed wooden buildings as the number of buildings that have been completely or partially destroyed. Therefore, more specifically, the database 38 of this embodiment registers the daytime wooden building resident population and the nighttime wooden building resident population within each area Z as the population residing in wooden buildings. The daytime wooden building resident population and the nighttime wooden building resident population are the daytime and nighttime populations (number of people) of the residents of the wooden buildings located within each area Z. Such daytime population and nighttime population living in wooden buildings can be obtained, for example, from data held by local governments.

[0021] The earthquake motion estimation unit 34 estimates the intensity of earthquake motion in each region Z within the area A when an earthquake occurs. The earthquake motion estimation unit 34 calculates the earthquake motion for each area Z based on the coordinates (latitude, longitude) of each area Z registered in the database 38 and the epicenter position (latitude, longitude, depth) included in the earthquake information distributed from the computer device 2 on the earthquake information provider side. i (i=1, ..., number of regions) iand the epicenter distance X i Calculate. The earthquake motion estimation unit 34 calculates the magnitude of each calculated region Z i Distance X to the epicenter at i Based on information such as magnitude and focal depth, the earthquake motion prediction formula (distance attenuation formula) shown in the following formula (1) is used to calculate the area Z i Maximum velocity value V in the engineering foundation of i Estimate. logV i =0.58M-0.0038hS-1.29-log(X i +0.0028·10 0.5M )-0.002X i ···(1) Here, M is the magnitude, h is the focal depth, and S is a constant that is 0.00 for inland earthquakes, -0.02 for plate boundary earthquakes, and 0.12 for intraplate earthquakes. The earthquake motion estimation unit 34 estimates the area Z i Maximum surface velocity VEL i is calculated by the following equation (2). i is an amplification factor that is preset according to the ground conditions registered in the database 38. VEL i =V i ×AMP i ···(2) The seismic motion estimation unit 34 then calculates the area Z i Measured seismic intensity I i is calculated, for example, by the following equation (3). I i =2.54+1.82logVEL i ···(3)

[0022] The building damage level estimation unit 35 estimates the level of damage to buildings in each of a plurality of areas Z within the region A at the time of the earthquake occurrence, based on the earthquake information. The building damage degree estimation unit 35 estimates the number of completely or partially destroyed buildings in each of the multiple regions Z as the degree of damage to the buildings. In particular, in this embodiment, wooden buildings are the target. Therefore, the building damage degree estimation unit 35 estimates the number of completely or partially destroyed wooden buildings in each of the multiple regions Z (hereinafter referred to as the number of completely or partially destroyed wooden buildings) as the degree of damage to the buildings. Figure 5 shows the correlation between the measured seismic intensity and the rate of complete or partial destruction of wooden buildings by construction age. As shown in Figure 5, the older a wooden building is, the higher the chance of it being completely or partially destroyed in an earthquake. The building damage estimation unit 35 estimates the damage to the building in each area Z i Seismic intensity measurement at I i Based on the correlation between the measured seismic intensity and the rate of complete or partial destruction of wooden buildings by construction age, as shown in Figure 5, i The rate of complete or partial destruction of each wooden building by construction age D i Ask for. Furthermore, the building damage estimation unit 35 calculates the area Z i Number of wooden buildings by construction date W i , the rate of complete or partial destruction D by construction age i Multiply by the calculated W by construction age i ×D i By summing up, each area Z i Number of wooden buildings completely or partially destroyed in WN i Ask for. WN i =Σ(W i ×D i ) (4)

[0023] The rescue-needing-person number estimation unit 37 estimates the number of people in a plurality of areas Z i In each of the regions Z i The extent of damage to buildings in the area Z i The number of people needing rescue is estimated based on the number of people remaining, which is the number of people whose position does not change within a certain period of time. The rescue-requiring-person number estimator 37 estimates the number of people stranded in each area based on the location information of smart devices as resident location information after the earthquake occurrence time. The rescue-requiring-person number estimator 37 estimates the number of people stranded in each area based on the location information of smart devices as resident location information after the earthquake occurrence time. The rescue-requiring-person number estimator 37 calculates the number of stranded people and the number of people in normal times, i.e., the number of daytime location information ND registered in the database 38. i , number of night location information NN i As will be explained later, each region Z i In-building residence rate a i Evaluate. Here, the number of people staying PX i For each region Z, from time t (t = 0 is the time of the earthquake occurrence) to Δt (any time can be set, for example, 30 minutes, 1 hour, etc.), i The number of smart device location information that exists in the data that has not changed is the number of data that has not changed. i is calculated for the time period between t and t+Δt, and then calculated for the next time period Δt, between t+Δt and t+2Δt, and is updated accordingly. Therefore, the subsequent processing is performed using the most recently calculated number of people staying PX i It is preferable to base it on Specifically, the rescue-requiring-person number estimation unit 37 calculates the amount of movement of the position of each smart device in a time period Δt, and estimates the number of people (users) of each smart device as the number of people remaining PX i It is determined whether to count it as such.

[0024] Since there is an error in the GPS position information, the rescue-needing-person-number estimating unit 37 evaluates whether or not there is a change in the position information of the smart device in the following manner, and calculates the number of stranded people PX i are excluded from the count. Specifically, the GPS position information (P j , j = 1 to n), outliers are detected. Although it is possible to use sophisticated methods such as the Smirnoff-Grubbs test to detect outliers, since immediate identification of rescue recipients is required, in this embodiment a simple method using the interquartile range is used. The rescue-needing-person number estimation unit 37 receives n pieces of GPS position information P j When is acquired, the first quartile is Q1 and the third quartile is Q3. The rescue-requiring-persons number estimation unit 37 then calculates the interquartile range IQR using the following equation (5). IQR=Q3-Q1 (5) The rescue-needing person number estimation unit 37 uses the GPS position information P j If the following equation (6) or (7) is satisfied, the GPS position information P j is considered an outlier and is excluded. P j ≧Q3+(IQR×1.5) (6) P j ≦Q1-(IQR×1.5) (7)

[0025] FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of a movement history of GPS location information. The rescue-needing person number estimation unit 37 estimates the number of rescue-needing people from the GPS position information (P j , j=1~n), the moving speed WV between GPS location information j In this embodiment, the rescue-needing-person number estimation unit 37 calculates the distance d between the GPS position information. j and the difference in the time at which the GPS location information was acquired (t j+1 -t j ) to calculate the movement speed WV j The rescue-needing-person-number estimating unit 37 calculates the average value WV ave Calculate. Furthermore, the rescue-needing person number estimation unit 37 calculates the calculated moving speed WV j Average value of WV ave Based on this, it is determined whether the user of the smart device is staying in the building. Since the general walking speed is about 1 m / s and the walking speed of a person with walking difficulty is about 0.5 m / s, the rescue-needing-person-number estimating unit 37 sets the average value of these, 0.75 m / s, as the threshold value, and calculates the average value WV ave but, WV ave <0.75 If the number of smart device users staying is PXi It is determined that the amount is countable. In this way, the rescue-needing person number estimating unit 37 calculates the number of stranded people PX i Calculate.

[0026] Next, the rescue-needing-person number estimation unit 37 estimates the number of rescue-needing people in a plurality of areas Z i In each of the above, the number of people in normal times, i.e., the number of daytime location information ND i Or the number of nighttime location information NN i and the number of people staying PX i Based on this, the building retention rate a, which is the percentage of people who stay in the building, i For this purpose, if the earthquake occurs during the daytime (for example, from sunrise to sunset), the rescue-requiring person number estimation unit 37 calculates the building retention rate a i Calculate. a i =PX i / ND i ···(8) Furthermore, if the earthquake occurs during the night (for example, from sunset to sunrise), the rescue-requiring person number estimation unit 37 calculates the building retention rate a i Calculate. a i =PX i / NN i ···(9)

[0027] In addition, the rescue-needing person number estimation unit 37 estimates the number of rescue-needing people in a plurality of areas Z i In each of the regions Z i The population living in the building in area Z i The building occupancy density is calculated by dividing the number of buildings in the area Z by the number of buildings in the area Z. In particular, in this embodiment, wooden buildings are the target. Therefore, in this embodiment, the wooden building occupancy density is calculated as the building occupancy density. That is, the rescue-needing person number estimation unit 37 calculates the number of buildings in the area Z by the number of buildings in the area Z. i In each of the regions Z i The population living in wooden buildings in area Z i Divide this by the number of wooden buildings to calculate the wooden building occupancy density. More specifically, the rescue-needing-person-number estimating unit 37 estimates the number of wooden buildings W by construction year registered in the database 38. i Calculate the sum of the area Z i Number of wooden buildings in WH i The rescue-need-person-count estimation unit 37 calculates the number of wooden buildings WH i and the population living in wooden buildings registered in database 38, i.e., the wooden building daytime population (WND) i or nighttime population living in wooden buildings WNN i Based on the wooden building occupancy density b i Calculate. For this purpose, when the earthquake occurs during the daytime (for example, from sunrise to sunset), the rescue-requiring person number estimation unit 37 calculates the daytime wooden building occupancy density b i Calculate. b i =WND i / WH i ···(10) Furthermore, if the earthquake occurs at night (for example, from sunset to sunrise), the rescue-requiring person number estimation unit 37 calculates the nighttime wooden building occupancy density b i Calculate. b i =WNN i / WH i ···(11)

[0028] Furthermore, the rescue-needing person number estimation unit 37 estimates the number of rescue-needing people in a plurality of areas Z i In each of the above cases, the number of completely or partially destroyed wooden buildings (degree of damage to buildings) WN i , building residence rate a i , Wooden building occupancy density (building occupancy density)b i Based on this, the number of people needing rescue is NR i The rescue-needing-person-number estimating unit 37 calculates the number of completely or partially destroyed wooden buildings WN i , building residence rate a i , and wooden building occupancy density b i Multiply by the number of people needing rescue, NR i Calculate. NRi =WN i ×a i ×b i ···(12) In this way, the rescue-needing-person number estimation unit 37 estimates the number of rescue-needing people in the plurality of areas Z i In each of the regions Z i Damage to buildings (number of wooden buildings completely or partially destroyed WN i ) and the number of people staying PX i (Based on the calculated building residence rate a i ) based on the number of people needing rescue, NR i Estimate.

[0029] FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example in which information relating to the number of rescue recipients is displayed in a plurality of areas according to the number of rescue recipients. The rescue recipient information display unit 39 displays information about the number of rescue recipients calculated by the rescue recipient number estimation unit 37 for each of the multiple regions Z. The rescue recipient information display unit 39 displays the calculated information about the number of rescue recipients for each of the multiple regions Z on a monitor or the like provided in the earthquake rescue recipient position estimation system 1. For example, as shown in FIG. 7 , the rescue recipient information display unit 39 divides the number of rescue recipients into multiple levels, such as 1 to 5, 6 to 10, etc., and displays each region Z on a monitor or the like, colored with a color (including shades of color) set for each level. Note that the number of rescue recipients displayed by the rescue recipient information display unit 39 is not limited to that shown in FIG. 7 and can be changed as appropriate, for example, by displaying a number indicating the number of rescue recipients in each region Z.

[0030] FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing the flow of a method for estimating the number of people needing rescue, which is carried out using the system for estimating the positions of people needing rescue during an earthquake as described above. As shown in FIG. 8, in the method for estimating the number of people needing rescue according to this embodiment, first, a database 38 is constructed in advance during normal times when no earthquake has occurred (step S1). Specifically, the location information acquisition unit 33 acquires the location information of the smart device from the computer device 5 on the data provider side via the network 100 and the communication unit 31, and based on this, calculates the number of people at normal times, i.e., the number of daytime location information and the number of nighttime location information, and registers it in the database 38. Similarly, the coordinates of the four corners of each area Z, mesh size, ground conditions of each area Z, daytime population living in wooden buildings, nighttime population living in wooden buildings, number of wooden buildings by construction year, etc. are registered in database 38.

[0031] The system for estimating the location of a person in need of rescue during an earthquake 1 monitors whether an earthquake has occurred (step S2). If no earthquake information has been received from the computer device 2 of the earthquake information provider, that is, if no earthquake has occurred, step S1 is repeatedly executed at preset time intervals or as needed, thereby updating the contents of the database 38 to the latest situation.

[0032] When an earthquake occurs and earthquake information is distributed from the computer device 2 on the earthquake information provider side, the seismic motion estimation unit 34 estimates the intensity of seismic motion in each area Z within the area A that is the target for estimating the location of the person in need of rescue at the time of the earthquake (step S3). The earthquake motion estimation unit 34 calculates the earthquake motion for each area Z based on the coordinates (latitude, longitude) of each area Z registered in the database 38 and the epicenter position (latitude, longitude, depth) included in the earthquake information distributed from the computer device 2 on the earthquake information provider side. i In the region Z i and the epicenter distance X i Calculate. The earthquake motion estimation unit 34 calculates the magnitude of each calculated region Z i epicenter distance X i Based on information such as magnitude and focal depth, the area Z is calculated using the above formula (1). i Maximum velocity value V in the engineering foundation of i Estimate. Furthermore, the earthquake motion estimation unit 34 calculates the area Z i Maximum surface velocity VEL iis calculated by the above formula (2). The earthquake motion estimation unit 34 calculates the area Z i Measured seismic intensity I i is calculated using the above formula (3).

[0033] Next, the building damage level estimation unit 35 estimates the level of damage to buildings in each of the multiple regions Z within the area A at the time of the earthquake occurrence, based on the earthquake information (step S4). The building damage level estimation unit 35 estimates the number of completely or partially destroyed wooden buildings WN in each of the multiple regions Z as the degree of damage to the buildings. i is calculated using the above equation (4).

[0034] Next, the rescue-requiring-person number estimating unit 37 estimates the number of people requiring rescue (step S5). For this, the rescue-requiring-person number estimating unit 37 estimates the number of people requiring rescue based on the location information of the smart device as resident location information after the earthquake occurrence time. i The number of people staying in PX i The rescue-needing person number estimation unit 37 estimates the number of stranded people PX i and the number of people during normal times, i.e., the number of daytime location information registered in database 38, ND i , number of night location information NN i Using each region Z i In-building residence rate a i is calculated using the above formulas (8) and (9). Furthermore, the rescue-needing person number estimation unit 37 estimates the number of rescue-needing people in a plurality of areas Z i In each of the regions Z i The population living in the building in area Z i More specifically, the rescue-requiring-person-number estimator 37 calculates the building occupancy density by dividing the number of wooden buildings W H in the area Z by the number of wooden buildings W H in the area Z. i and daytime population living in wooden buildings (WND) i or nighttime population living in wooden buildings WNN i Based on the above, the wooden building occupancy density b i Calculate. Furthermore, the rescue-needing person number estimation unit 37 estimates the number of rescue-needing people in a plurality of areas Z iIn each of the above cases, the number of completely or partially destroyed wooden buildings (degree of damage to buildings) WN i , building residence rate a i , Wooden building occupancy density (building occupancy density)b i Based on this, the number of people needing rescue, NR, is calculated using the above equation (12). i Calculate.

[0035] Thereafter, the rescue requester information display unit 39 displays information about the number of rescue requesters (step S6).

[0036] The above-described system for estimating the location of a person requiring rescue during an earthquake 1 is a system for estimating the location of a person requiring rescue during an earthquake, and estimates the degree of damage to buildings (the number of completely or partially destroyed wooden buildings WN i a building damage degree estimation unit 35 that estimates the number of people needing rescue in each of the multiple areas Z based on the degree of damage to the building in that area Z and the number of people stranded in that area Z, which is the number of people whose position has not changed; and a rescue person information display unit 39 that displays information regarding the number of people needing rescue for each of the multiple areas Z. According to the above configuration, the degree of damage to buildings is estimated in each of multiple areas Z within the estimation target area A based on the intensity of the earthquake motion, and the number of people needing rescue is estimated based on the degree of damage to the buildings and the number of people stranded, which is the number of people whose positions have not changed. Information about the estimated number of people needing rescue is then displayed for each of the multiple areas Z. This series of processes does not require rescue requests from the people needing rescue. Therefore, it is possible to estimate and display how many people needing rescue are located in each area Z without the people needing rescue themselves requesting rescue. The number of people staying, which is the number of people whose location has not changed and is used in the above process, can be easily obtained by, for example, obtaining GPS data from each person's smart device from a mobile terminal carrier or the like, and extracting identification number information whose location information does not change over time. To perform such processing, there is no need to distribute any kind of terminal to residents in the target area A in advance. Furthermore, there is no need to install, for example, a motion sensor in each building in area A. Thus, since there is no need to install special equipment in advance to realize the system for estimating the location of rescue recipients during an earthquake 1, the high costs required for implementation and operation are reduced. In this way, it is possible to provide a system 1 for estimating the location of a person needing rescue during an earthquake, which can estimate the location of a person needing rescue without the person needing rescue requesting rescue themselves, and which can be implemented at low cost.

[0037] In addition, the building damage level estimation unit 35 calculates the number of completely or partially destroyed buildings in each of the multiple areas Z as the degree of damage to the buildings (number of completely or partially destroyed wooden buildings WN i ) and the rescue-needing-person-number estimation unit 37 estimates the population of people living in buildings in each of the multiple areas Z (daytime wooden building resident population WND i , nighttime population living in wooden buildings WNN i ) is the number of buildings in the area Z (number of wooden buildings WH i ) to calculate the building occupancy density (wooden building occupancy density b i The number of people needing rescue is estimated by calculating the building retention rate, which is the percentage of people trapped inside a building calculated based on the number of people trapped, by the number of buildings that were completely or partially destroyed, and the building occupancy density. With this configuration, in each of the multiple regions Z, the number of buildings that are completely or partially destroyed is estimated as the degree of damage to the buildings, the population living in the buildings in that region is divided by the number of buildings in that region Z to calculate the building occupancy density, which is the number of people per building, and by multiplying the number of completely or partially destroyed buildings by the building occupancy density, the number of residents of the completely or partially destroyed buildings in each of the multiple regions can be determined. Then, in each of the multiple regions Z, by multiplying the number of completely or partially destroyed buildings by the building occupancy density and the building retention rate, which is the proportion of people trapped in the buildings calculated based on the number of people trapped, the number of people who are thought to be trapped in the completely or partially destroyed buildings among the number of residents of the completely or partially destroyed buildings, can be calculated as the number of people requiring rescue.

[0038] In particular, this embodiment is directed to wooden buildings. Therefore, the building damage level estimation unit 35 calculates the number of completely or partially destroyed wooden buildings in each of the multiple regions Z as the degree of damage to the buildings (number of completely or partially destroyed wooden buildings WN i ) and the rescue-requiring-person-number estimation unit 37 estimates the population of people residing in wooden buildings (daytime wooden building resident population WND i , nighttime population living in wooden buildings WNN i ) is divided by the number of wooden buildings in the area Z to calculate the wooden building occupancy density, and the number of people needing rescue is estimated by multiplying the building occupancy rate, which is the proportion of people trapped inside buildings calculated based on the number of people trapped, by the number of wooden buildings that are completely or partially destroyed and the wooden building occupancy density. With this configuration, it is possible to estimate the number of people needing rescue in wooden buildings, which are often damaged or collapsed during earthquakes and are known to have a particularly high number of people crushed to death by building collapses.

[0039] In addition, the rescue-needing-person-number estimation unit 37 calculates the number of people remaining in each of the multiple areas Z based on the resident location information within area Z obtained from outside, as the number of data points for which location information does not change over a certain period of time, and calculates the rate of people remaining in the building by dividing the number of people remaining by the normal number of people, which is the number of people who are thought to be located in area Z under normal conditions. With this configuration, the number of residents can be calculated as the number of data points for which location information does not change over a certain period of time based on resident location information within the area obtained from outside, and the number of residents can be set to an appropriate value. Furthermore, by dividing the number of people trapped by the normal number of people, which is the number of people who are thought to be located in the area Z under normal circumstances, the proportion of people trapped in the building can be calculated appropriately as the in-building trapping rate. This makes it possible to efficiently estimate the number of people needing rescue.

[0040] In addition, resident location information is obtained from smart devices owned by each person, and the normal number of people is obtained by measuring the number of smart devices in each of multiple areas Z before an earthquake occurs. This allows the normal number of people to be obtained appropriately.

[0041] The system for estimating the position of a person in need of rescue during an earthquake according to the present invention is not limited to the embodiment described above with reference to the drawings, and various other modifications are conceivable within the technical scope thereof. For example, in the above embodiment, wooden buildings are the target, but the present invention is not limited to this and may also be applicable to, for example, reinforced concrete buildings. In this case, the same explanation can be given by replacing the term "wooden" in the above embodiment with "reinforced concrete". Similarly, steel-framed buildings may also be the target. Alternatively, similar processing may be performed in parallel for wooden, reinforced concrete, and steel-framed buildings, thereby making it possible to handle all of these. In addition to this, it is possible to select and discard the configurations given in the above embodiments, or to change them to other configurations as appropriate. [Explanation of symbols]

[0042] 1 Earthquake rescue victim location estimation system 39 Rescue victim information display unit 35 Building Damage Estimation Area A 37 Estimation of number of people requiring rescue Z area

Claims

1. A system for estimating the location of a person requiring rescue during an earthquake, which estimates the location of a person requiring rescue after an earthquake occurs, a building damage estimation unit that estimates the degree of damage to buildings in each of a plurality of regions within an estimation target area based on the intensity of the earthquake motion; a rescue-needing-person-number estimating unit that estimates the number of rescue-needing persons in each of the plurality of areas based on the degree of damage to the building in that area and the number of people remaining in that area, which is the number of people whose positions have not changed; a rescue requester information display unit that displays information about the number of rescue requesters for each of the plurality of areas. A system for estimating the location of people in need of rescue during an earthquake.

2. the building damage level estimation unit estimates the number of buildings that are completely or partially destroyed in each of the plurality of areas as the degree of damage to the buildings; The rescue-requiring-person number estimation unit, in each of the plurality of regions, Calculate the building occupancy density by dividing the population living in buildings in the area by the number of buildings in the area; Multiplying the in-building retention rate, which is the ratio of people staying in buildings calculated based on the number of people staying in the building, by the number of buildings that are completely or partially destroyed, and by the building occupancy density. The number of people needing rescue is estimated by 2. The system for estimating the position of a person in need of rescue during an earthquake according to claim 1.

3. The rescue-requiring-person number estimation unit, in each of the plurality of regions, Based on resident location information within the area acquired from an external source, the number of data items in which location information does not change within a certain period of time is calculated as the number of people staying there; The number of people staying in the building is divided by the number of people in normal times, which is the number of people who are thought to be located in the area under normal circumstances, to calculate the in-building staying rate.

3. The system for estimating the location of a person in need of rescue during an earthquake according to claim 2.

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