Information provision system and program

Abstract

To promptly notify a user of a flood prediction when the risk is expected to exceed criteria set by the user at any location within the area of interest.SOLUTION: The system predicts the distribution of inundation depths and river water levels for multiple cells using predicted rainfall distribution data as input and displays the distribution of inundation depths or river water levels. The system determines whether the predicted inundation depth or river water level for any cell within a user-specified area of interest exceeds the criteria set by a user. If a prediction value is determined to exceed the alert criteria, the system sends an alert notification to a user's terminal.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 3

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to an information providing system and a program. [Background technology]

[0002] A system is known that divides a target area into multiple cells, performs predictive calculations for flood inundation conditions for each cell, and displays the results in a planar view. Patent Document 1 discloses a flood monitoring system that uses weather forecast information as input, calculates and predicts river flow rate and flood inundation conditions, and displays them on a surface. The flood monitoring system includes a hydrological and hydraulic model that calculates the soil infiltration process and surface water volume in each cell, calculates water movement between cells, and calculates river flow rate. When it is predicted that the river levee will overflow, the flood monitoring system calculates the water depth in each cell using the flood inundation model and displays the predicted flood inundation conditions on a surface. Non-Patent Document 1 describes a service that uses a model in which storage tanks connected between cells represent underground and surface flows to predict flooding in flood zones and rivers, and displays the predicted results in a two-dimensional display with different colors indicating the alert level. Furthermore, it describes a service being implemented by a company in cooperation with the Japan Meteorological Agency that sends push notifications to user devices via email or a smartphone app when the risk level in a user-registered location increases, in order to aid in voluntary evacuation. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] Special Publication No. 2021-518889 [Non-patent literature]

[0004] [Non-Patent Document 1] Explanation of the Japan Meteorological Agency's Kikikuru (warning risk distribution)<https: / / www.jma.go.jp / jma / kishou / know / bosai / riskmap.html> Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] Users of inundation and flood prediction systems include not only personal users, but also disaster prevention personnel from local governments, road management company personnel, and electric power companies that monitor disasters in specific areas under their jurisdiction. These disaster prevention personnel from local governments and infrastructure facilities need to monitor the entire relatively wide area under their jurisdiction. With conventional technology, while it was possible to notify disaster prevention personnel of danger at a specific location when the danger at that location was imminent, it was difficult to notify them of danger when a disaster was predicted to occur anywhere within the area.

[0006] An object of the present invention is to quickly notify a user of a flood disaster prediction when a risk of exceeding a reference value set by the user is predicted anywhere within a region of interest. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] The present invention, which was completed with this objective in mind, is an information provision system that includes one or more processors, which use precipitation data as input to predict the flood depth and river water level of multiple cells, and which sends an alert notification to the user's terminal based on the predicted value of the flood depth or river water level of any of the cells within an area of ​​interest previously set by the user and a reference value previously set by the user.

[0008] Here, the alert notification may be sent by email, and the content of the alert notification may include the location, predicted time, and predicted value of flood depth or river water level.

[0009] The region of interest may be an area enclosed by a polygon preset by the user, or an area enclosed by administrative boundaries of a city, town, or village.

[0010] The information sent as an alert may also include link information that enables the distribution of the flood depth or the river water level to be displayed.

[0011] The present invention is also a program for enabling a computer to perform the following functions: predicting the flood depth and river water level of multiple cells using precipitation data as input; superimposing cells colored based on the flood depth or river water level on a map; determining whether the predicted value of the flood depth or river water level of any cell within a region of interest previously set by a user exceeds a reference value previously set by the user; and sending an alert notification to the user's terminal if it is determined that the predicted value exceeds the reference value. [Effects of the Invention]

[0012] The information provision system of the present invention can quickly notify a user of a flood disaster prediction when a risk of exceeding a reference value set by the user is predicted at any location within a region of interest. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0013] [Figure 1] 1 is a diagram showing an example of the overall configuration of an information providing system to which the present embodiment is applied; [Figure 2] 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of a hardware configuration of a management server that configures the information providing system of FIG. 1. FIG. [Figure 3] FIG. 2 illustrates an example of a functional configuration of a control unit of the management server. [Figure 4] 10 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a processing flow of a management server. [Figure 5] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing a specific example of a user interface as prediction information displayed on a user terminal. [Figure 6] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing a specific example of a user interface for registering a point of interest that is displayed on a user terminal. [Figure 7]10A and 10B are diagrams illustrating specific examples of user interfaces related to registering a region of interest that are displayed on a user terminal. [Figure 8] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing a specific example of a user interface for setting alert conditions displayed on a user terminal. [Figure 9] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing a specific example of an alert notification displayed on a user terminal. [Figure 10] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a specific example of a user interface that indicates an alert target and is displayed on a user terminal. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0014] Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. <Configuration of Information Provision System 1> FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of the overall configuration of an information providing system 1 to which the present embodiment is applied. The information provision system 1 is configured by connecting a management server 10 and a user terminal 30 via a network 90. ​​The network 90 is, for example, a LAN (Local Area Network) or the Internet. The information provision system 1 is an information provision system that supports users who monitor inundation and flooding. Specifically, it is an information provision system that supports users who do not constantly monitor their screens by notifying them in advance of the risk of inundation / flooding or rising river levels, thereby enabling them to take early disaster prevention and evacuation actions.

[0015] (Management Server 10) The management server 10 constituting the information providing system 1 is an information processing device that serves as a server for managing the entire information providing system 1. The management server 10 stores meteorological information obtainable via the network 90 in a database and manages it.

[0016] The management server 10 presents to the user terminal 30 input support information that supports the operation of inputting information corresponding to a point or area to be monitored (hereinafter referred to as a "point of interest") or a target area to be monitored (hereinafter referred to as an "area of ​​interest") that the user wishes to register. Specific examples of the input support information presented to the user terminal 30 will be described later with reference to FIGS. 6 and 7.

[0017] The management server 10 presents input support information to the user terminal 30 to support the operation of inputting a threshold value for which the user desires to receive an alert notification (hereinafter referred to as an "alert reference value"). A specific example of the input support information presented to the user terminal 30 will be described later with reference to FIG. 8.

[0018] The management server 10 acquires the registration information transmitted from the user terminal 30 to the management server 10, and stores and manages the information in a database.

[0019] The management server 10 calculates inundation / flooding and river water levels using actual weather information up to the time when actual weather information is available, and for the time periods after that when actual weather information is not available, it inputs forecast information such as rainfall forecast information and performs forecast calculations of inundation / flooding and river water levels. Specifically, it calculates inundation depth and river water levels on a cell-by-cell basis from the present to the future. In this specification, inundation refers to the covering of ground surfaces that are not normally part of rivers by water due to flooding caused by inland or external water overflow. Inundation depth refers to the depth from the ground surface to the water surface when inundation occurs. According to the definition of the Japan Meteorological Agency, flooding is "the overflow of water from the normal river channel into the riverbed due to an abnormal increase in the water level or flow rate of a river, and the overflow of water from levees and other structures outside the riverbed." In this embodiment, flooding refers to river water overflowing its levees and is used as a concept that is included in inundation.

[0020] When the management server 10 determines that the predicted value of the flood depth or river water level of a cell corresponding to a point of interest stored in the database or any cell within the area of ​​interest exceeds the alert reference value, it notifies the user by sending an email or the like to the user terminal 30. The email generated by the management server 10 includes link information such as the URL of a site that displays predicted information on flooding or river water levels. The configuration and processing of the management server 10 will be described in detail below.

[0021] (User terminal 30) The user terminal 30 constituting the information providing system 1 is an information processing device such as a personal computer, a smartphone, or a tablet terminal operated by a user who uses the information providing system 1. The user terminal 30 transmits information input by the user to the management server 10. Examples of information input by the user and transmitted to the management server 10 include user registration information, and information on points and areas of interest.

[0022] Furthermore, the user terminal 30 acquires various types of information transmitted from the management server 10 and displays it on a display, etc. For example, the user terminal 30 acquires area-wide flood prediction data and images transmitted from the management server 10 and displays them on a display, etc.

[0023] The management server 10 and the user terminal 30 constitute "one or more processors" in this case using CPUs used in various devices connected to the management server 10 and the user terminal 30, and realize various functions in this embodiment. 1 do not necessarily have to be in the same housing, and may be understood as a system. If the main body device and the housing are different, they are connected by wire or wirelessly.

[0024] The configuration of the information providing system 1 described above is an example, and it is sufficient that the information providing system 1 as a whole has the functions to realize the above-described processing. Therefore, some or all of the functions to realize the above-described processing may be shared among the devices in the information providing system 1, or they may cooperate with each other. For example, some or all of the functions of the management server 10 may be functions of the user terminal 30. Furthermore, some or all of the functions of the management server 10 and the user terminal 30 that constitute the information providing system 1 may be transferred to another server (not shown). This promotes processing by the information providing system 1 as a whole, and also enables the processes to complement each other.

[0025] <Hardware configuration of management server 10> FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of the management server 10 constituting the information providing system 1 of FIG. The management server 10 has a control unit 11, a memory 12, a storage unit 13, a communication unit 14, an operation unit 15, and a display unit 16. These units are connected via a data bus, an address bus, a PCI (Peripheral Component Interconnect) bus, etc. The management server 10 can also function as a web server that provides a display system provided on a web browser of a user terminal 30.

[0026] The control unit 11 is a processor that controls the functions of the management server 10 through the execution of various software such as an OS (operating system) and application software. The control unit 11 is configured, for example, by a CPU (Central Processing Unit). The memory 12 is a storage area that stores various software and data used for executing the software, and is used as a working area for calculations. The memory 12 is configured, for example, by a RAM (Random Access Memory). In addition, the control unit 11 can provide a browser system (a system that allows you to view a site simply by opening it in a web browser) created in various languages, such as HTML, CGI, PHP, Java (registered trademark), applet, and JavaScript (registered trademark).

[0027] The memory unit 13 is a storage area that stores input data for various software programs and output data from various software programs. The memory unit 13 is composed of, for example, a hard disk drive (HDD), a solid state drive (SSD), or semiconductor memory used to store programs and various setting data. The memory unit 13 is provided with databases that store various types of information. For example, the memory unit 13 stores a weather information DB 131 that stores weather information, a parameter DB 132 that stores parameters used by hydrological and hydraulic models, a water level DB 133 that stores information on inundation depths and river water levels, a registration information DB 134 that stores user registration information acquired by the management server 10 for calculating inundation depths and river water levels, an alert information DB 135 that stores the contents of alert notifications generated by the management server 10, and a history information DB 136 that stores current distribution maps and forecast maps of inundation depths and river water levels.

[0028] The weather information stored in the weather information DB 131 includes observed values, actual-state estimated values, and forecast values ​​distributed by the Japan Meteorological Agency, weather information distribution companies, etc. This includes actual-state data such as area-wide rainfall estimation information from radar AMeDAS, rainfall distribution information estimated from satellite data, and area-wide forecast data from short-term precipitation forecasts and numerical forecast models. This weather information serves as input values ​​for models that calculate flood depths and river water levels for multiple cells. While it is desirable for the input values ​​to be area-wide rainfall information, the management server 10 may estimate area-wide information from the point rainfall after receiving input of rainfall at multiple points. For example, by using radar AMeDAS information distributed by the Japan Meteorological Agency, information from multiple rainfall observation points independently managed by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, local governments, electric power companies, etc., and data obtained from satellites, it is possible to correct the radar AMeDAS rainfall information, and to use this as an initial short-term precipitation forecast that extrapolates the movement of the rain area and use it as the predicted rainfall up to six hours in advance. Furthermore, it is also possible to input the forecast results of a numerical forecast model up to 36 hours in advance to calculate flood depths and river water levels. Furthermore, the management server 10 may perform calculations of flood depth and river water level after nesting and downscaling based on the weather forecast results obtained via the network 90.

[0029] The parameters stored in the parameter database 132 are used by hydrological and hydraulic models to calculate flood depths and river water levels. Examples of such information include soil infiltration capacity, maximum water storage capacity, digital elevation model (DEM), flow direction between cells, roughness coefficient, levee height, and river channel width. This information may be actual measured data or estimated data. For example, river channel width can be obtained by using satellite data that has been subjected to processes such as noise removal and calibration to approximate the actual data. Levee height can be explicitly provided as parameter data, or it can be estimated from a digital elevation model by treating the levee as a piece of topography.

[0030] The information stored in the parameter DB 132 is basically stored as information associated with a cell. Here, a "cell" is a unit obtained by dividing the calculation domain. For example, a cell is a mesh unit obtained by dividing the calculation domain into a grid at intervals of approximately 30 m in the vertical and horizontal directions. The cell may be a 10 m mesh or a finer unit. It may also be a 50 m mesh or a coarser unit. Furthermore, the cell does not necessarily have to be a square mesh, but may be a regular hexagon. In this embodiment, the cell is the unit of display for flood depth and river water level, but calculations do not have to be performed on a cell-by-cell basis. For example, calculations can be performed on a divided watershed basis, and then converted to flood depth and river water level on a cell-by-cell basis.

[0031] The information on flood depth and river water level stored in the water level DB 133 includes calculation results and observation data for flood depth and river water level for multiple cells. In the case of observation data, information on the date and time and observation location is stored in association with each other. For example, the management server 10 obtains observation data from water level sensors managed by national institutions, local governments, electric power companies, etc. via a network and stores it in the water level DB 133. In the case of forecast data, the data is stored in association with the forecast initial time, forecast time, and cell location.

[0032] The user registration information stored in the registration information DB 134 includes information such as the user's user identification information, points or areas of interest, and alert reference values. The points or areas of interest and alert reference values ​​are stored in association with the user identification information, so the management server 10 can issue alert notifications to each user terminal by referencing the alert reference values ​​for the points or areas of interest specific to the user. The content of the generated alert notification is stored in the alert information DB 135 in association with the user identification information.

[0033] Current distribution maps and forecast maps of flood depth and river water levels are stored in the history information DB 136, so the management server 10 can display the status of past events, allow users to view them, and perform statistical processing.

[0034] The communication unit 14 transmits and receives various types of information to and from the user terminal 30 and the outside via the network 90. ​​The operation unit 15 is composed of, for example, a keyboard, a mouse, mechanical buttons, and switches, and accepts input operations. The operation unit 15 also includes a touch sensor that forms a touch panel integrally with the display unit 16. The display unit 16 is composed of, for example, a liquid crystal display or an organic EL (Electro Luminescence) display used to display information, and displays image and text data, etc.

[0035] <Hardware Configuration of User Terminal 30> The user terminal 30 may have a configuration similar to the hardware configuration of the management server 10 shown in Fig. 2. That is, the user terminal 30 may have a control unit, memory, storage unit, communication unit, operation unit, and display unit similar to the control unit 11, memory 12, storage unit 13, communication unit 14, operation unit 15, and display unit 16 of the management server 10 shown in Fig. 2. For this reason, illustration and description of the hardware configuration of the user terminal 30 will be omitted.

[0036] <Functional Configuration of the Control Unit 11 of the Management Server 10> FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of the functional configuration of the control unit 11 of the management server 10. As shown in FIG. The control unit 11 of the management server 10 functions as a management unit 101 as a management means, an acquisition unit 102 as an acquisition means, a calculation unit 103 as a calculation means for flooding and river water levels, a judgment unit 104 as an alert judgment means, a generation unit 105 as an alert generation means, and a transmission control unit 106 as a presentation means.

[0037] The management unit 101 stores and manages various types of information in various databases provided in the storage unit 13 (see FIG. 2). For example, the management unit 101 stores and manages the flood depth or river water level calculated by the calculation unit 103 (described later) in a water level DB 133 provided in the storage unit 13. The management unit 101 also stores and manages the registered information acquired by the acquisition unit 102 (described later) in a registered information DB 134 provided in the storage unit 13. The management unit 101 also stores and manages the alert content generated by the generation unit 105 (described later) in an alert information DB 135 provided in the storage unit 13.

[0038] The acquisition unit 102 acquires a plurality of moving images that can be acquired via the network 90. ​​Specifically, for example, the acquisition unit 102 acquires weather information from the Japan Meteorological Agency, a weather information distribution company, or the like via the network 90. ​​The acquisition unit 102 also acquires various types of information transmitted from the user terminal 30 to the management server 10. For example, the acquisition unit 102 acquires registration information transmitted from the user terminal 30.

[0039] The calculation unit 103 calculates information on flood depth and river water level. Specifically, the calculation unit 103 inputs actual and forecast-based rainfall information and calculates flood depth and river water level for each cell. A known hydrological model or hydraulic model can be used to calculate flood depth and river water level. For example, a hydrological model that physically calculates water infiltration and saturation of soil, surface flow, subsurface flow, and groundwater for each cell, a hydraulic model that calculates river water flow, or a model that combines these can be used. Alternatively, water movement calculations can be performed on a catchment-by-catchment basis, and then converted to flood depth and river water level on a cell-by-cell basis. For example, the Catchment-based Macro-scale Floodplain model (CaMa-Flood), a river flooding model developed by the Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo, can be used to convert the storage volume on a catchment-by-catchment basis to a cell-by-cell basis to calculate flood depth and river water level.

[0040] Furthermore, since water typically moves between cells from cells with higher elevations to cells with lower elevations, the flow direction of the water may be determined in advance based on digital elevation model (DEM) data. For river meshes, calculations can be performed efficiently by calculating the flow of river water using a hydraulic model, using pre-set attributes for the cells, indicating whether they are river cells or non-river cells. Each cell is associated with parameters such as infiltration capacity, maximum storage volume, and flow direction, as well as with the results of calculations by the calculation unit 103, such as flood depth or river water level.

[0041] The calculation unit 103 may perform prediction calculations using a data assimilation method to reduce the error between the predicted river water level and the observed river water level. For example, an ensemble Kalman filter is used to assimilate observed water level data into the prediction results. The ensemble Kalman filter can repeatedly perform data assimilation up to the desired prediction time by repeatedly predicting the next time step using a model and filtering using the Kalman gain. In this way, the data assimilation method using observed water level data can improve the prediction accuracy of river water levels. Furthermore, since the prediction accuracy of river water levels is related to the prediction accuracy of inundation depth, it also improves the prediction accuracy of inundation depth.

[0042] The determination unit 104 compares the predicted value of the flood depth or river water level of a cell corresponding to the point of interest stored in the memory unit 13 or of any cell within the region of interest with the alert reference value stored in the memory unit 13 to determine whether the predicted value exceeds the alert reference value. When a region of interest has been set, the determination unit 104 determines whether the predicted value of the flood depth or river water level of any cell within the region of interest exceeds the alert reference value.

[0043] The generation unit 105 generates various types of information. For example, the generation unit 105 generates an email to notify an alert. The content of the email generated by the management server 10 includes link information such as a URL of a site that displays predicted information on flooding or river water levels.

[0044] The transmission control unit 106 controls the transmission of various types of information via the communication unit 14 (see FIG. 2). For example, the transmission control unit 106 controls the transmission of an alert notification email generated by the generation unit 105 to the user terminal 30.

[0045] <Management Server Processing Flow> FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing an example of the processing flow of the management server 10. The management server 10 receives rainfall information at predetermined time intervals via the network 90 (S401). If the latest weather forecast information has not been received (NO in S401), the system waits until it is received and repeats the determination in S401. If it has been received (YES in S401), the calculation unit 103 performs a predictive calculation of the flood depth and river water level for each cell (S402). The management server 10 generates a diagram in which the calculated flood depth and river water level for each cell are superimposed on a map, and transmits the diagram to the user terminal 30 (S403). The user terminal 30 displays the forecast map data from the management server 10, allowing the user to check the forecast map. Here, the management server 10 may function as a web server and return the forecast map data to the browser in response to a request from the browser used by the user, allowing the user to check the forecast map on the browser.

[0046] The management server 10 compares the predicted flood depth or river water level values ​​for the cell of the point of interest or all cells in the region of interest, which were previously transmitted and stored from the user terminal 30, with the alert reference value, and determines whether the predicted flood depth or river water level value for any cell of the cell of the point of interest or any cell in the region of interest exceeds the alert reference value (S404). If the management server 10 determines that the predicted flood depth or river water level value for any cell of the point of interest or any cell in the region of interest exceeds the alert reference value (YES in S404), it generates and sends an alert notification email (S405). Then, if the management server 10 receives an instruction from the user to display a flood forecast or river forecast screen (S406), it transmits the flood forecast or river forecast screen to the user terminal (S407). On the other hand, if the management server 10 does not receive an instruction from the user terminal to display a flood forecast or river forecast screen (NO in S407), it waits for an instruction from the user terminal and repeats S407.

[0047] <Example> FIG. 5 is a diagram showing a specific example of a user interface as prediction information displayed on a user terminal. As described above, the management server 10 (see FIG. 1) calculates the flood depth and river water level for each cell and creates a flood forecast map or river forecast map, which is a distribution map of the calculated predicted cell values. These forecast maps are sent from the management server 10 to the user terminal 30 and displayed on the display screen of the user terminal 30.

[0048] The flood forecast map 500 shown in Figure 5, which shows the distribution of flood forecasts, displays multiple flood cells 510, each colored according to the flood depth. The user is provided with tabs 520 for flood forecasts and river forecasts, and can view the forecast information for either the flood forecast or river forecast by clicking on either tab. A time series bar 530 is also provided, covering the period from 12 hours ago to 36 hours in the future. By sliding the pointer to the desired time, the user can check the distribution for any time between the past 12 hours and the future 36 hours.

[0049] FIG. 6 is a diagram showing a specific example of a user interface for registering a point of interest displayed on a user terminal. By registering points of interest in advance, a user can receive alert notifications regarding predictions for points of interest. A point of interest can be registered by specifying the point by inputting an address. A point can also be specified and registered by inputting latitude and longitude. A point can also be registered by specifying a point on a map. FIG. 6 displays a point of interest setting screen 600 including a map of the area around the point of interest, and a registered point of interest 610 is displayed on the point of interest setting screen 600.

[0050] FIG. 7 is a diagram showing a specific example of a user interface for registering a region of interest displayed on a user terminal. By registering a region of interest in advance, a user can receive alert notifications regarding forecasts within the region of interest. A region of interest can be registered by specifying the region by inputting an address. Alternatively, a region of interest formed by a rectangle (bounding box) with two corners, i.e., the latitude and longitude of two points at the northwestern and southeastern ends, can be specified and registered. Furthermore, a region of interest can be registered by specifying multiple points on a map. FIG. 6 shows a region of interest setting screen 700 including a map of the area of ​​interest, and a registered region of interest 710 is displayed on the region of interest setting screen 700.

[0051] While the above example illustrates a rectangular region of interest, the region of interest is not limited to a rectangle. It can also be registered as a polygonal area defined by multiple points. When determining whether a region of interest is an alert target, all cells inside the boundary of the region of interest are subject to the alert, while cells outside the boundary are not. However, cells on the boundary of the region of interest may or may not be subject to the alert. A cell may also be subject to an alert if it occupies more than half of its unit area. Multiple polygons can also be defined to define multiple regions of interest. Furthermore, by associating each cell with attribute information, such as the city or town in Japan it belongs to, when a city or town is entered, all cells within the area bounded by the administrative boundaries of the entered city or town are identified as the region of interest.

[0052] FIG. 8 illustrates a specific example of a user interface for setting alert conditions displayed on a user terminal. The alert condition setting screen 800 allows the user to specify variables, time, thresholds, and notification methods for flood depth, river water level, or precipitation. The "Select Area and Register" tag is selected on the alert condition setting screen 800, displaying a condition setting screen for alert notifications for the region of interest. This condition setting screen is configured to send an alert notification by email if the flood depth of any cell within the region of interest is predicted to exceed 10 cm within 36 hours. It is also configured to send an alert notification by email if the precipitation of any cell within the region of interest is predicted to exceed 5 cm within 24 hours. It is also configured to send an alert notification by email if the river water level of any cell within the region of interest is predicted to exceed 200 cm within 30 hours. In this way, the user can specify one or a combination of the flood depth, river water level, and precipitation forecast elements as the alert reference value. Furthermore, the user can specify multiple different alert reference values ​​or different forecast times for the same forecast element. If multiple alert conditions are set, a primary alert is sent when a prediction is made that any one of the alert conditions is met (an OR condition), and a secondary alert is sent when a prediction is made that multiple conditions are met simultaneously (an AND condition). Although not shown, it is also possible to explicitly specify an OR condition or an AND condition to set the alert notification conditions. As described above, the information provision system of this embodiment does not notify all users simultaneously based on uniform criteria, but rather notifies individual users of alerts according to their preferred notification conditions. Alerts can be sent via email or other notification methods, such as Slack (registered trademark) or LINE (registered trademark).

[0053] In the input example of the "reference value preset by the user" that is the alert reference value in Figure 8, numerical values ​​for flood depth, river water level, and precipitation are input, but it is also possible to input and specify a recurrence period. Although not shown, if, for example, 10 years is set as the probable precipitation, a user who receives an alert notification will know that heavy rain is predicted to occur once every 10 years. As with precipitation, it is also possible to specify a recurrence period for flood depth and river water level. The probability value corresponding to the recurrence period is calculated in advance based on past observation values ​​by assuming a probability density function appropriate for the hydrological quantity (prediction element), and is stored in the memory unit 13. The determination unit 104 compares the predicted value with the probability value stored in the memory unit 13 to determine whether to issue an alert notification.

[0054] FIG. 9 illustrates a specific example of an alert notification displayed on a user terminal. When the alert conditions described in FIG. 8 are met, the user terminal is notified with the content shown in email body 900. The email informs the user that a flood alert has been issued for the registered location, that the predicted flooding in the area around XX Village, XX Prefecture, is 50 cm in 18 hours, and that the predicted flooding in the area around XX Power Plant, XX Prefecture, is 15 cm in 24 hours. A user checking the user terminal can instantly display a forecast map like the one shown in FIG. 10 on their user terminal by, for example, clicking an icon in the email containing the URL information of a site displaying a river forecast map. In this way, users do not constantly monitor their user terminals. By receiving an alert notification based on forecast information in advance, users can detect danger without being surprised when a sudden danger approaches and can accelerate initial disaster prevention activities. 10 shows dangerous cells 720a and 720b that are predicted to exceed the alert threshold set by the user 18 hours from now (or from the initial time) among the cells in the region of interest 710. The dangerous cells can be displayed by any means that allows the user to recognize them as dangerous, such as by using a color or by encircling the cell outline. After receiving an alert notification, the user can easily check which cells have exceeded the alert threshold.

[0055] <Other embodiments> Although the present embodiment has been described above, the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment. Furthermore, the effects of the present invention are not limited to those described in the above-described embodiment. For example, the configuration of the information providing system 1 shown in FIG. 1, the hardware configuration of the management server 10 shown in FIG. 2, and the functional configuration of the control unit 11 of the management server 10 shown in FIG. 3 are merely examples for achieving the object of the present invention and are not particularly limited. It is sufficient for the information providing system 1 of FIG. 1 to be provided with the functionality to execute the above-described processing as a whole, and the hardware and functional configurations used to realize this functionality are not limited to the above-described examples. For example, an embodiment in which a Web server on the network 90 performs some of the functions of the management server 10 may also be used.

[0056] Furthermore, the order of the steps of the processing of the management server 10 shown in Fig. 4 is merely an example and is not particularly limited. The processing is not limited to being performed in chronological order according to the order of the steps shown in the figure, and may be performed in parallel or individually, without necessarily being performed in chronological order. Furthermore, the specific examples shown in Figs. 5 to 10 are also merely examples and are not particularly limited. For example, the aspects of the user interface displayed on the screens shown in Figs. 5 to 8 are examples of assistance for inputting registration information, and other aspects may also be used. [Explanation of symbols]

[0057] 1...information provision system, 10...management server, 11...control unit, 12...memory, 13...storage unit, 14...communication unit, 15...operation unit, 16...display unit, 30...user terminal, 90...network, 101...management unit, 102...acquisition unit, 103...calculation unit, 104...determination unit, 105...generation unit, 106...transmission control unit, 500...flood forecast map, 510...flooded cell, 520...tab, 530...time series bar, 600...point of interest setting screen, 610...point of interest, 700...area of ​​interest setting screen, 710...area of ​​interest, 720...danger cell, 800...alert condition setting screen, 900...email body

Claims

1. one or more processors; the one or more processors: Using precipitation data as input, we predict the flood depth and river water level for multiple cells. sending an alert to the user's terminal based on the predicted value of the flood depth or the river water level of any of the cells within a region of interest previously set by the user and a reference value previously set by the user; Information provision system.

2. The alert notification is performed by email; The content of the alert notification includes a location, a predicted time, and a predicted value of the flood depth or river water level. The information providing system according to claim 1 .

3. The region of interest is an area enclosed by a polygon preset by the user or an area enclosed by administrative boundaries of a city, town or village. The information providing system according to claim 1 .

4. The information sent as an alert includes link information that enables a display of the distribution of the flood depth or the river water level. The information providing system according to claim 2 .

5. On the computer, The function to predict the flood depth and river water level of multiple cells using precipitation data as input, a function of superimposing colored cells based on the flood depth or the river water level on a map; a function of determining whether the predicted value of the flood depth or the river water level of any cell within a region of interest previously set by a user exceeds a reference value previously set by the user; a function of sending an alert to the user's terminal when it is determined that the predicted value exceeds the reference value; A program to achieve this.

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