Simulation method for power supply systems, operation method, simulation device, power system, management method, and management system

Abstract

To provide a technique suitable for a cost-effective power supply.SOLUTION: There is disclosed a method for simulating a power supply system 400. The power supply system 400 includes solar cells 410, fuel cells 420, and a storage battery 430. The simulation method determines an operation plan for the power supply system 400 based on the amount of power demand, the amount of power generated by the solar cell 410, the fuel consumption of each fuel cell 425, the lifespan of each fuel cell 425, and the lifespan of the storage battery 430.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present disclosure relates to a power supply system simulation method, an operation method, a simulation device, a power system, a management method, and a management system. [Background technology]

[0002] Various power sources are used. Examples of power sources include solar cells, fuel cells, and storage batteries. Systems including solar cells, fuel cells, and storage batteries have been studied. Patent Document 1 describes such a system. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2005-86953 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] The present disclosure aims to provide a technology suitable for cost-effective power supply. [Means for solving the problem]

[0005] The present disclosure provides: A method for simulating a power supply system, comprising: the power supply system includes a solar cell, a group of fuel cells, and a storage battery; The simulation method includes: The amount of electricity demand, The amount of power generated by the solar cell; and The fuel consumption of each fuel cell, The consumption of the life of each fuel cell, Consumption of the battery's lifespan; determining an operation plan for the power supply system based on the A simulation method is provided. [Effects of the Invention]

[0006] According to the present disclosure, it is possible to provide a technology suitable for cost-effective power supply. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0007] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a block diagram for explaining the embodiment. [Figure 2] FIG. 2 is a flowchart for explaining the simulation. [Figure 3] FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram of the FC operation. [Figure 4] FIG. 4 is a flowchart for explaining the determination of the GP power amount and the SB power amount. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0008] (Findings that formed the basis of this disclosure) The present inventors have studied a power supply system including a fuel cell and a storage battery. According to their study, consideration of not only the fuel consumption of the fuel cell but also the lifespan of the fuel cell and the storage battery leads to cost-effective power supply using a power supply system. The present disclosure is based on this finding.

[0009] Hereinafter, embodiments will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. However, unnecessary detailed description may be omitted. For example, detailed description of already well-known matters or redundant description of substantially the same configuration may be omitted.

[0010] The accompanying drawings and the following description are provided to enable those skilled in the art to fully understand the present disclosure, and are not intended to limit the subject matter recited in the claims.

[0011] In the embodiments, a solar cell may be referred to as PV, a fuel cell may be referred to as FC, a storage battery may be referred to as SB, and a power system may be referred to as GP.

[0012] In the embodiment, charging / discharging refers to charging or discharging. Charging / discharging power refers to charging power or discharging power. Positive charging / discharging power refers to discharging power, and negative absolute values ​​of charging / discharging power refer to charging power. Charging / discharging power amount refers to charging power amount or discharging power amount. Positive charging / discharging power amount refers to discharging power amount, and negative absolute values ​​of charging / discharging power amount refer to charging power amount.

[0013] In the embodiments, unless otherwise inconsistent, "lifespan" may be read as "durability" or "usable period."

[0014] (Embodiment) FIG. 1 is a block diagram for explaining the embodiment.

[0015] The power system 100 includes a simulation device 200, a control device 300, and a power supply system 400. Power can be supplied to a load 600 from the power supply system 400 and a power grid 500.

[0016] [Power Supply System 400] The power supply system 400 includes a solar cell 410, a fuel cell group 420, and a storage battery 430. The fuel cell group 420 includes M fuel cells 425. M is a natural number equal to or greater than 2. M can also be a natural number equal to or greater than 10. In this embodiment, M is 100.

[0017] The solar cell 410 generates electricity when irradiated with sunlight. The solar cell 410 has one or more solar cell panels.

[0018] The fuel cell 425 consumes fuel to generate electricity. Specifically, the fuel is hydrogen. Examples of the fuel cell 425 include a polymer electrolyte fuel cell, a solid oxide fuel cell, a phosphoric acid fuel cell, and a molten carbonate fuel cell.

[0019] In this embodiment, the fuel cell 425 can generate rated power and partial load power. Rated power is power generation that produces rated power. Partial load power is power generation that produces less power than the rated power.

[0020] The storage battery 430 can be charged with power purchased from the power grid 500, power generated by the solar cell 410, and power generated by the fuel cell 425. The storage battery 430 has one or more storage battery modules.

[0021] [Power system 500 and load 600] By purchasing power from the power grid 500, it is possible to receive power supply from the power grid 500.

[0022] The load 600 may be supplied with power purchased from the power grid 500, power generated by the solar cell 410, power generated by the fuel cell 425, power discharged from the storage battery 430, etc. The load 600 is, for example, a load in a factory.

[0023] [Simulation device 200 and control device 300] The simulation device 200 uses simulation to create an operation plan for the power supply system 400. The control device 300 controls the power supply system 400 in accordance with the operation plan.

[0024] The simulation device 200 may be an on-site device located at the site where the power supply system 400 is installed (i.e., an on-site device), or may be a cloud device provided on the cloud.

[0025] The control device 300 controls the fuel cell group 420 and the storage battery 430. The control device 300 also controls the purchase of electricity from the power grid 500 and the sale of electricity to the power grid 500.

[0026] The control device 300 may be a device located at the site where the power supply system 400 is installed. Alternatively, the control device 300 may be a cloud device provided on the cloud.

[0027] In one embodiment, the simulation device 200 is a cloud device. The control device 300 is a device located at the site where the power supply system 400 is installed.

[0028] The simulation device 200 includes an information unit 210, a prediction unit 220, and a calculation unit 230. The information unit 210 is a memory. The prediction unit 220 is a processor. The calculation unit 230 is a processor.

[0029] The information section 210 includes: SB Equipment Price A SB , FC equipment price A FC , Fuel unit price U FUEL , ·Power purchase price U GP , ·SB durability time D SB , ·FC durability time D FC , ·SB maximum power storage amount B MAX , SB maximum cycle count Y MAX , Maximum number of FC startups N FCMAX , FC maximum power generation time T FCMAX , ·Maximum discharge rate, ·Maximum charging speed, Minimum downtime, Maximum continuous power generation time the permitted values ​​for the power generation of the fuel cell 425, and The maximum discharge amount of the battery 430 in one time step ts is stored.

[0030] SB Equipment Price A SB is the equipment price of the storage battery 430.

[0031] FC equipment price A FC is the equipment price of the fuel cell 425.

[0032] Fuel unit price U FUEL is the price of fuel required for the fuel cell 425 to generate a unit amount of power. FUEL is updated periodically or irregularly. Specifically, the fuel unit price U FUEL is the unit price of hydrogen, U H2 The unit price of hydrogen, U H2 is the price of hydrogen required for the fuel cell 425 to generate a unit amount of electricity.

[0033] Power purchase price U GP is the price required to purchase a unit amount of power from the power grid 500. GP It is updated periodically or irregularly.

[0034] SB durability time D SB is the upper limit of the time that has elapsed since the storage battery 430 was installed. In this embodiment, this elapsed time is the SB endurance time D SB After reaching this value, the battery 430 will not be charged or discharged.

[0035] FC durability time D FC is the upper limit of the time that has elapsed since the fuel cell 425 was installed. In this embodiment, this elapsed time is the FC endurance time D FC After reaching this value, the fuel cell 425 will no longer generate electricity.

[0036] SB maximum power storage amount B MAX is the upper limit of the amount of power stored in the storage battery 430.

[0037] SB maximum cycle number Y MAX is the upper limit of the number of cycles of the storage battery 430.

[0038] Maximum FC startup times N FCMAXis the upper limit of the number of times the fuel cell 425 can be started, counted from when the fuel cell 425 is new. In this embodiment, this total is the FC maximum number of times N FCMAX After reaching this value, the fuel cell 425 will no longer generate electricity.

[0039] FC maximum power generation time T FCMAX is the upper limit of the cumulative power generation time of the fuel cell 425 counted from when the fuel cell 425 is new. In this embodiment, this cumulative power generation time is equal to the FC maximum power generation time T FCMAX After reaching this value, the fuel cell 425 will no longer generate electricity.

[0040] The maximum discharge rate is the upper limit of the discharge rate of the storage battery 430 .

[0041] The maximum charging rate is the upper limit of the charging rate of the storage battery 430.

[0042] The minimum rest time is the lower limit of the rest time of the fuel cell 425 .

[0043] The maximum continuous power generation time is the upper limit of the continuous power generation time of the fuel cell 425 .

[0044] The permitted value regarding the power generation of the fuel cell 425 is, for example, the amount of power generation, the power generation power, etc. that the fuel cell 425 is permitted to generate.

[0045] The maximum discharge amount of power of the storage battery 430 in one time step ts is the upper limit of the discharge amount of power of the storage battery 430 in one time step ts.

[0046] In this embodiment, the FC equipment price A FC , FC durability time D FC , FC maximum startup count N FCMAX , FC maximum power generation time T FCMAX The minimum rest time, maximum continuous power generation time, and permitted values ​​for power generation of the fuel cells 425 are the same for the M fuel cells 425.

[0047] As can be understood from the above description, the storage battery 430 has a lifespan that corresponds to the durability of the storage battery 430. When the storage battery 430 is charged and discharged, the lifespan of the storage battery 430 is consumed. In this embodiment, the lifespan of the storage battery 430 is calculated as SB endurance time D SB and SB maximum cycle number Y MAX It is a concept that includes:

[0048] As can be understood from the above description, the fuel cell 425 has a lifespan that corresponds to the durability of the fuel cell 425. When the fuel cell 425 generates power, the lifespan of the fuel cell 425 is consumed. In this embodiment, the lifespan of the fuel cell 425 is determined as the FC durability time D FC , FC maximum startup count N FCMAX and FC maximum power generation time T FCMAX It is a concept that includes:

[0049] The prediction unit 220 predicts the amount of power generated by the solar cell 410. This prediction is made based on the correlation between past weather and the amount of power generated by the solar cell 410, and on weather forecasts.

[0050] The prediction unit 220 predicts the amount of power demand for the load 600. This prediction is made based on the pattern of changes in the amount of power demand in the past. For example, if the load 600 is a factory load, the amount of power demand tends to increase when the temperature is low or high because the power consumption of the air conditioner increases. Also, for example, the amount of power demand tends to increase on weekdays compared to holidays. Therefore, the amount of power demand for the day and time period to be predicted can be predicted based on which part of the pattern the day and time period to be predicted correspond to. Also, for example, if the load 600 is a factory load and the factory is producing products, the amount of power demand can also be predicted from information on the planned production volume.

[0051] The prediction unit 220 may predict the amount of power generated by the solar cell 410 and the amount of power demanded by the load 600 based on a predetermined algorithm (for example, a mathematical formula with fixed coefficients) or may perform the predictions by machine learning. The predictions may be performed by known methods.

[0052] The calculation unit 230 creates an operation plan for the power supply system 400. Specifically, the operation plan is created by a simulation using information from the information unit 210 and information from the prediction unit 220.

[0053] FIG. 2 is a flowchart for explaining the simulation.

[0054] In step S10, the calculation unit 230 sets the value of the first counter CT1 to one.

[0055] The value of the first counter CT1 indicates which processing loop it is in. In Fig. 3, which will be described later, a column La constitutes one processing loop, and a column Lb constitutes another processing loop.

[0056] In step S11, the calculation unit 230 sets the value of the second counter CT2 to one.

[0057] The value of the second counter CT2 indicates the number of the unit process in each processing loop. In Fig. 3, processing related to one tentative plan 7, which will be described later, constitutes a unit process.

[0058] In step S12, the calculation unit 230 determines whether the value of the second counter CT2 is greater than 1. If the value of the second counter CT2 is greater than 1, the calculation unit 230 proceeds to step S13. If the value of the second counter CT2 is 1, the calculation unit 230 proceeds to step S14.

[0059] In step S13, the calculation unit 230 changes the FC operation. The change in the FC operation is performed by changing the tentative plan 7.

[0060] In step S14, the calculation unit 230 sets the FC operation as the reference operation. The setting of the FC operation as the reference operation is performed by setting the basic plan 7s as the tentative plan 7.

[0061] Specifically, when the value of the second counter CT2 is 1 and the value of the first counter CT1 is 1, a default plan 7w, which is a default reference plan 7s, is set as the tentative plan 7, and the FC motion is set as the reference motion. When the value of the second counter CT2 is 1 and the value of the first counter CT1 is Q and Q>1, the reference plan 7s set in step S23 when the value of the first counter CT1 is Q-1 is set as the tentative plan 7, and the FC motion is set as the reference motion.

[0062] FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram of the FC operation.

[0063] In the simulation of this embodiment, a tentative plan 7 is repeatedly created. The tentative plan 7 is a plan for a period Ta. The period Ta is composed of Z time steps ts. In other words, Ta = ts × Z. Z is a natural number equal to or greater than 2. In this embodiment, the Z time steps ts have the same time length.

[0064] The tentative plan 7 is a plan for M fuel cells 425 in the fuel cell group 420 .

[0065] The provisional plan 7 is the FC power generation power P FCi (and as a result, the amount of FC power generation E FCi This is a plan for FC power generation P FCi is the power generated by the fuel cell 425. As described above, in this embodiment, rated power generation and partial load power generation can be performed. Based on this, in the provisional plan 7, the FC generated power P FCi is set to one of G values, where G is a natural number equal to or greater than 2. In the following, the amount of power generated by the fuel cell 425 at time step ts is referred to as the FC power generation amount E FCi It is written as E FCi =P FCi ×ts.

[0066] In this embodiment, the period Ta is 24 hours. Z is 48. The time step ts is 30 minutes. M is 100. G is 62. Specifically, the FC generated power P FCi The possible values ​​are 0kW and 61 values ​​in 0.1kW increments from 4kW to 10kW (4kW, 4.1kW, 4.2kW, 9.8kW, 9.9kW, 10kW), for a total of 62 values.

[0067] In the provisional plan 7 of Figure 3, M x Z cells form a matrix with M rows and Z columns. The number of cells in the row direction, Z, represents the number of time steps ts. The number of cells in the column direction, M, represents the number of fuel cells 425 in the fuel cell group 420, M.

[0068] Each cell corresponds to one fuel cell 425 at one time step ts. Although not shown in FIG. 3 because it is a plan view, the time step ts associated with each cell and the FC generated power P of the fuel cell 425 are FCi can take on G different values. The G different FC generated power P FCi A tentative plan7 for each of these will be developed.

[0069] For example, in Figure 3, "7a11~7a1 G A matrix with M × Z cells is drawn with the letter "(7)" written on it. In this matrix, the provisional plans 7a11 to 7a1 G The G provisional plans 7 correspond to the provisional plans 7a21 to 7a2 in FIG. G , Provisional Plan 7b11~7b1 G , and Provisional Plans 7b21-7b2 G The same is true for .

[0070] As can be understood from the above explanation, G Z×M A tentative plan 7 of the pattern is considered. The FC operation is the operation of M fuel cells 425 over a period Ta, and is Z×M This is the action corresponding to one of the patterns.

[0071] As will be understood from the explanation below, in the simulation, the above G Z×M The optimum one of the patterns is determined by repeating a processing loop involving the creation of N patterns of tentative plans 7, where N will be explained later.

[0072] In step S15, the calculation unit 230 calculates the GP power amount E when the FC operation changed or set in step S13 or step S14 is performed. GP and SB power amount E SB Determine the GP power amount E GP is the amount of power purchased from the power grid 500 at each time step ts. SB is the amount of charge and discharge power of the storage battery 430 at each time step ts.

[0073] FIG. 4 shows the GP power amount E GP and SB power amount E SB 10 is a flowchart for explaining the determination of the

[0074] In Figure 4, the amount of demanded energy E DEM is the amount of power demand in the load 600 at each time step ts. PV is the amount of power generated by the solar cell 410 at each time step ts. DEM and PV power amount E PV is a predicted value by the prediction unit 220. FC generated power amount E FCg is the amount of power generated by the fuel cell group 420 at each time step ts, and the FC power generation amount E FCi is the sum of

[0075] In step S151, the calculation unit 230 calculates the differential power amount E DIF Determine the differential power amount E DIF is the amount of power demand E DEM , PV energy E PV , FC power generation amount E FCgThat is, the differential power amount E DIF is the amount of power demand E DEM From the above, the PV power amount E PV and FC generated power E FCg This is the difference obtained by subtracting . Formula 1:E DIF =E DEM -E PV -E FCg

[0076] Next, in step S152, the calculation unit 230 calculates the differential power amount E DIF Determine whether the differential power amount E is smaller than zero. DIF If the difference in the amount of electric power E is smaller than zero, the process proceeds to step S154. DIF If is greater than or equal to zero, the process proceeds to step S153.

[0077] In step S153, the calculation unit 230 calculates the SB power amount E SB The minimum value of the predetermined list is set as follows: The predetermined list is a list of the following three items: item (a1), item (a2), and item (a3). (a1) The current amount of power stored in the storage battery 430 (a2) Maximum discharge energy of the storage battery 430 at one time step ts (a3) Differential power amount E DIF

[0078] In step S154, the calculation unit 230 calculates the SB power amount E SB Determine the SB power amount E SB is the differential power amount E DIF That is, the SB power amount E SB is the differential power amount E DIF In step S154, the calculation unit 230 calculates the GP power amount E GP Set to zero. Formula 2:E SB =E DIF Formula 3:E GP =0

[0079] After step S153, in step S155, the calculation unit 230 calculates the GP power amount E GP Determine the GP power amount E GP is the differential power amount E DIF and SB power amount E SB That is, the GP power E GP is the differential power amount E DIF From SB power amount E SB This is the difference obtained by subtracting . Formula 4:E GP =E DIF -E SB

[0080] Returning to FIG. 2, after step S15, in step S16, the calculation unit 230 calculates the operation cost C of each fuel cell 425 at each time step ts. FC1 Determine the operation cost C FC1 is the amount of FC power generation E FCi and fuel unit price U FUEL That is, the operation cost C FC1 is the amount of FC power generation E FCi and fuel unit price U FUEL is the product of Formula 5:C FC1 =E FCi ×U FUEL

[0081] After step S16, in step S17, the calculation unit 230 calculates the lifetime cost C of each fuel cell 425 at each time step ts. FC2 Determine the life cost C FC2 is given by the following Equation 6 using f1, f2, and f3. MAX( ) is a function that extracts the maximum element among the multiple elements listed in "( )". That is, the lifetime cost C FC2 is the maximum value in f1, f2 and f3. Formula 6:C FC2 =MAX(f1, f2, f3)

[0082] f1 is given by the following formula 7. In formula 7, the number of FC activations N FC is the number of times the fuel cell 425 has been started up, counted from when the fuel cell 425 was new. FC FC maximum startup count N FCMAX Divide by the FC equipment price A FC It is the product of multiplication. Formula 7: f1=N FC / N FCMAX ×A FC

[0083] f2 is given by the following formula 8. In formula 8, the FC cumulative power generation time T FC is the cumulative power generation time of the fuel cell 425 counted from when the fuel cell 425 is new. That is, f2 is the FC cumulative power generation time T FC FC maximum power generation time T FCMAX Divide by the FC equipment price A FC It is the product of multiplication. Formula 8: f2=T FC / T FCMAX ×A FC

[0084] f3 is given by the following formula 9. In formula 9, the FC installation time I FC is the elapsed time from the time the fuel cell 425 was installed. That is, f3 is the FC installation time I FC FC Endurance Time D FC Divide by the FC equipment price A FC It is the product of multiplication. Formula 9: f3 = I FC / D FC ×A FC

[0085] After step S17, in step S18, the calculation unit 230 calculates the life cost C of the storage battery 430 at each time step ts. SB2 Determine the life cost C SB2 is given by the following Equation 10 using f4, f5, and f6. That is, the life cost C SB2 is the maximum value at f4, f5 and f6. Formula 10:C SB2 =MAX(f4, f5, f6)

[0086] f4 is given by the following formula 11. In formula 11, the SB cumulative discharge energy B AD is the cumulative discharged power amount of the storage battery 430 counted from when the storage battery 430 was new. AD SB maximum storage capacity B MAX and SB maximum cycle number Y MAX The value divided by the product of SB equipment price A SB It is the product of multiplication. Formula 11: f4=B AD / (B MAX ×Y MAX )×A SB

[0087] f5 is given by the following formula 12. In formula 12, the SB cumulative charging energy B AC is the cumulative amount of charged energy of the storage battery 430 counted from when the storage battery 430 was new. AC SB maximum storage capacity B MAX and SB maximum cycle number Y MAX The value divided by the product of SB equipment price A SB It is the product of multiplication. Formula 12: f5=B AC / (B MAX ×Y MAX )×A SB

[0088] f6 is given by the following formula 13. In formula 13, the SB installation time I SB is the elapsed time from the time when the storage battery 430 was installed. That is, f6 is the SB installation time I SB SB Endurance Time D SB SB equipment price A SB It is the product of multiplication. Formula 13: f6=I SB / D SB ×A SB

[0089] After step S18, in step S19, the calculation unit 230 calculates the power purchase cost C from the power grid 500 at each time step ts. GP1 Determine the power purchase cost C GP1 is the GP power E GP and electricity purchase price U GP That is, the power purchase cost C GP1 is the GP power E GP and electricity purchase price U GP is the product of Formula 14:C GP1 =E GP ×U GP

[0090] After step S19, in step S20, the calculation unit 230 calculates the penalty cost C PEN Determine the penalty cost C PEN is the operation cost C FC1 is larger than the lifetime cost C FC2 is larger than the lifetime cost C SB2 is larger than the power purchase cost C GP1 is greater than.

[0091] In this embodiment, the penalty cost C PEN If a penalty cost C occurs, PEN The total cost C TOTAL The simulation is designed so that the penalty cost C is always large. Therefore, the operation plan of the power supply system 400 that is actually used to control the power supply system 400 can be based on one of the multiple tentative plans 7 that does not violate the penalty conditions. In one specific example, the penalty cost C PEN is set to the maximum value that can be handled in the simulation.

[0092] Penalty Cost C PENtakes a value greater than zero when a penalty condition of the power supply system 400 is violated. The penalty condition includes at least one condition selected from the group consisting of the following condition (b1), condition (b2), condition (b3), condition (b4), condition (b5), condition (b6), condition (b7), and condition (b8). (b1) A condition that there is no sale of electricity from the power supply system 400 to the power grid 500. (b2) A condition that the SOC (State Of Charge) of the storage battery 430 is A% or more and B% or less, where A is a value greater than 0, and B is a value greater than A and less than 100. (b3) The condition that the discharge rate of the storage battery 430 is equal to or less than the maximum discharge rate. (b4) The condition that the charging rate of the storage battery 430 is equal to or less than the maximum charging rate. (b5) The condition that the rest time of the fuel cell 425 is equal to or longer than the minimum rest time. (b6) The condition that the continuous power generation time of the fuel cell 425 is equal to or less than the maximum continuous power generation time. (b7) The condition that the amount of power generated by the fuel cell 425 is within an allowed value. (b8) A condition that the power generated by the fuel cell 425 is within an allowed value.

[0093] Condition (b1) may be included as a penalty condition when the simulation is applied to an area where selling of electricity is prohibited. Condition (b5) may be included as a penalty condition when the specifications of the fuel cell 425 impose a restriction on the downtime. Condition (b6) may be included as a penalty condition when the specifications of the fuel cell 425 impose a restriction on the continuous power generation time.

[0094] After step S20, in step S21, the calculation unit 230 calculates the total cost C TOTAL Determine the total cost C TOTAL is the operating cost C of M fuel cells 425 at each time step ts. FC1 , the lifetime cost C of M fuel cells 425 at each time step ts FC2, the lifespan cost C of the storage battery 430 at each time step ts SB2 , the power purchase cost C from the power grid 500 at each time step ts GP1 and the penalty cost C for each time step ts PEN Includes:

[0095] After step S21, in step S22, the calculation unit 230 determines whether the value of the second counter CT2 is equal to N. N will be described later. If the value of the second counter CT2 is equal to N, the process proceeds to step S23. On the other hand, if the value of the second counter CT2 is different from N, the process proceeds to step S24. In this embodiment, the process proceeds to step S24 if the value of the second counter CT2 is smaller than N.

[0096] In step S24, the calculation section 230 increments the value of the second counter CT2 by 1. After that, the process proceeds to step S12.

[0097] Steps S15 to S21 constitute a unit process. The unit process can be repeated by repeatedly updating the second counter CT2.

[0098] When the value of the first counter CT1 is 1, the value of the second counter CT2 increases from 1 to N. In terms of the processing loop shown in column La of FIG. 3, N interim plans are generated, N total costs C corresponding to N tentative plans 7 TOTAL is determined.

[0099] When the value of the first counter CT1 is 2, the value of the second counter CT2 increases from 1 to N. In terms of the processing loop shown in column Lb of FIG. 3, N interim plans are generated, N total costs C corresponding to N tentative plans 7 TOTAL is determined.

[0100] The same process can be performed when the value of the first counter CT1 is 3 or greater.

[0101] In step S23, the calculation unit 230 calculates the total cost C TOTAL In step S23, the calculation unit 230 identifies the minimum total cost C TOTAL In FIG. 3, the minimum total cost C in the column La corresponding to the case where the value of the first counter CT1 is 1 is set as the standard plan 7s. TOTAL Interim Plan 7, which realizes the above, is called Interim Plan 7a. min In addition, the minimum total cost C in the column Lb corresponding to the first counter CT1 having a value of 2 is TOTAL Interim Plan 7, which realizes the above, is now called Interim Plan 7b. min It is written as follows.

[0102] After step S23, in step S25, the calculation unit 230 determines whether the value of the first counter CT1 is greater than 1. If the value of the first counter CT1 is greater than 1, the calculation unit 230 proceeds to step S26. If the value of the first counter CT1 is 1, the calculation unit 230 proceeds to step S28.

[0103] When the flow reaches step S26, the value of the first counter CT1 is equal to or greater than 2. The value of the first counter CT1 in this case is denoted as J. J is a natural number equal to or greater than 2.

[0104] In step S26, the calculation unit 230 determines whether the latest minimum total cost and the previous minimum total cost match. The latest minimum total cost is the minimum total cost C identified in the most recent step S23 when the value of the first counter CT1 is J. TOTAL The previous minimum total cost is the minimum total cost C identified in the previous step S23 when the value of the first counter CT1 is J-1. TOTAL The total cost of these is C TOTAL If they match, proceed to step S27. If they do not match, proceed to step S28.

[0105] The case where J=2 will be taken as an example. In this case, the latest minimum total cost is the minimum total cost C when CT1=J=2, that is, the minimum total cost C in column Lb of FIG. TOTAL The previous minimum total cost is the minimum total cost C when CT1=J-1=1, that is, in column La of Figure 3. TOTAL is.

[0106] In step S27, the calculation unit 230 creates an operation plan for the power supply system 400.

[0107] In step S28, the calculation unit 230 increments the value of the first counter CT1 by 1. After that, the process proceeds to step S11.

[0108] Steps S25 to S28 will be further described with reference to Fig. 3. In Fig. 3, the "processing loop" is simply written as "loop" and the "base plan" is simply written as "base."

[0109] In FIG. 3, column Lb corresponds to the part in the flowchart of FIG. 2 where the value of the first counter CT1 is J=2, and column La corresponds to the part in the flowchart of FIG. 2 where the value of the first counter CT1 is J-1=1.

[0110] As described above, the processing loop shown in column La of FIG. N interim plans are generated, N total costs C corresponding to N tentative plans 7 TOTAL is determined.

[0111] Furthermore, the processing loop shown in column Lb of FIG. N interim plans are generated, N total costs C corresponding to N tentative plans 7 TOTAL is determined.

[0112] In the example of Figure 3, Interim Plan 7a min is the total cost C of the N tentative plans in column La TOTALis the minimum, and is therefore the baseline plan 7s. min is the total cost C of the N tentative plans in column Lb TOTAL is the smallest, and is therefore the standard plan 7s.

[0113] Tentative plan 7a min The total cost of C TOTAL and Interim Plan 7b min The total cost of C TOTAL Consider a situation where and are identical. min The total cost of C TOTAL and Interim Plan 7b min The total cost of C TOTAL Comparing these costs corresponds to step S26 in FIG. TOTAL The fact that the values ​​are the same and the loop is terminated (indicated as "loop end" in FIG. 3) corresponds to the determination of "YES" in step S26 and the progression to step S27. "Adoption of the next Ts operation at the end of the loop" in FIG. 3 corresponds to the creation of the operation plan in step S27 in FIG. 2. Specifically, the tentative plan 7a min Tomo Provisional Plan 7b min The first time step ts portion 750 of the specific plan 7x, which is identical to the first time step ts portion 750 of the specific plan 7x, is adopted as the operation plan.

[0114] In FIG. 3, the transition from the processing loop shown in column La to the processing loop shown in column Lb corresponds to step S28 in FIG. 2. min is passed on to the initial tentative plan 7 of the processing loop shown in column Lb, which corresponds to step S14.

[0115] As mentioned above, in the simulation, the above G Z×M The optimum pattern among the patterns is determined by repeating a processing loop involving the creation of N patterns of tentative plans 7. Here, N will be explained.

[0116] In the first processing loop shown in column La of FIG. 3, a tentative plan 7 is created with an N=Z×M×G pattern. That is, in the first processing loop, a unit process is executed N=Z×M×G times. In the second processing loop and subsequent processing loops shown in column Lb, a tentative plan 7 is created with an N=Z×M×GG pattern. That is, in the second processing loop and subsequent processing loops, a unit process is executed N=Z×M×GG times.

[0117] In each processing loop, G processes for a certain fuel cell 425 (hereinafter referred to as trial target 5) at a certain time step ts are repeated while changing the trial target 5. Here, the G processes are FCi is assigned to G different values, resulting in G different unit processes. In this embodiment, specifically, the G values ​​are a total of 62 values, including one value of 0 kW and 61 values ​​in 0.1 kW increments from 4 kW to 10 kW (4 kW, 4.1 kW, 4.2 kW, 9.8 kW, 9.9 kW, 10 kW).

[0118] In the first processing loop shown in column La in Fig. 3, the tentative plan 7 is created with N = Z × M × G patterns. Specifically, in the first processing loop, G patterns of processing are repeated Z × M times while the trial target 5 is changed.

[0119] In the second processing loop and the subsequent processing loops shown in column Lb, the tentative plan 7 is created in the N=Z×M×GG pattern. Specifically, in the second and subsequent processing loops, the total cost C TOTAL The one with the smallest is taken over as the first tentative plan 7. Here, the trial target 5 of the G-way processing in which the tentative plan 7 to be taken over to the next processing loop appears in the previous processing loop is referred to as the takeover target 6. In the second and subsequent processing loops, the G-way processing for the takeover target 6 taken over from the previous processing loop is not performed. This is why there is a "-G" term on the right-hand side of the above "N=Z×M×GG".

[0120] In addition, in column La of Figure 3, the multiple tentative plans 7 shown in curly brackets (drawn below the downward block arrow) to the right of the "N=ZxMxG pattern" include the tentative plans 7s drawn above the downward block arrow. Similarly, in column Lb, the multiple tentative plans 7 shown in curly brackets (drawn below the downward block arrow) to the right of the "N=ZxMxGG pattern" include the tentative plans 7s drawn above the downward block arrow.

[0121] In the embodiment described above, the simulation device 200 includes the prediction unit 220, which predicts the amount of power generated by the solar cell 410 and the amount of power demanded by the load 600. However, the simulation device 200 may obtain the predicted values ​​of the amount of power generated by the solar cell 410 and the amount of power demanded by the load 600 from outside the simulation device 200.

[0122] In reality, the power generated by a fuel cell may have a characteristic that, within a range from zero to the rated power generation of the fuel cell, there are values ​​that can be taken and values ​​that cannot be taken. Taking this into consideration, the operation plan for the power supply system 400 may be determined under the condition that the fuel cell 425 has a partial load characteristic. Here, the partial load characteristic is a characteristic that, within a range from zero to the rated power generation of the fuel cell 425, there are values ​​that can be taken and values ​​that cannot be taken. For example, a value of 0 kW and multiple values ​​in the range from 4 kW to 10 kW may correspond to values ​​that can be taken under the partial load characteristic. A value greater than 0 kW and less than 4 kW may correspond to values ​​that cannot be taken under the partial load characteristic.

[0123] Typically, a real fuel cell has a characteristic that the longer the cumulative power generation time, the lower the upper limit of the power generation. Taking this into consideration, the operation plan for the power supply system 400 may be determined under the condition that the fuel cell 425 has a fuel cell deterioration characteristic. Here, the fuel cell deterioration characteristic is a characteristic that the upper limit of the power generation of the fuel cell 425 is lower when the cumulative power generation time of the fuel cell 425 is relatively long compared to when the cumulative power generation time of the fuel cell 425 is relatively short. Specifically, the fuel cell deterioration characteristic is a characteristic that the longer the cumulative power generation time of the fuel cell 425, the lower the upper limit of the power generation of the fuel cell 425.

[0124] Typically, a real storage battery has a characteristic that the longer its cumulative charge / discharge time is, the lower the upper limit of its charge power, the lower the upper limit of its discharge power, and the lower the upper limit of its stored power. Here, the cumulative charge / discharge time is the sum of the cumulative discharge time and cumulative charge time of the storage battery counted from when the storage battery was new. The upper limit of the stored power is the upper limit of the amount of power that the storage battery can store. Taking this into consideration, the operation plan of the power supply system 400 may be determined under the condition that the storage battery 430 has a storage battery deterioration characteristic. Here, the storage battery deterioration characteristic is such that when the cumulative charge / discharge time of the storage battery 430 is relatively long, the deterioration is worse than when the cumulative charge / discharge time of the storage battery 430 is relatively short. (c1) the upper limit of the charging power of the storage battery 430; (c2) the upper limit of the discharge power of the storage battery 430, and (c3) an upper limit of the amount of stored energy in the storage battery 430; As can be understood from the above explanation, the cumulative charge / discharge time of the storage battery 430 is the sum of the cumulative discharge time and cumulative charge time of the storage battery 430 counted from the state when the storage battery 430 is new. The upper limit of the amount of stored power of the storage battery 430 is the upper limit of the amount of power that the storage battery 430 can store, and the maximum storage amount B MAXSpecifically, the battery deterioration characteristic is a characteristic in which the longer the cumulative charge / discharge time of the battery 430, the lower the at least one selected from the group consisting of (c1), (c2), and (c3). In a typical example, when an operation plan for the power supply system 400 is determined under the condition that the battery 430 has the battery deterioration characteristic related to (c3), the "SB maximum storage amount B" related to f4 and f5 in Formulas 10 to 12 is MAX " is the "SB maximum storage capacity B MAX " will be adopted.

[0125] In the embodiment described above, the operation plan for the power supply system 400 is a portion 750 of the specific plan 7x. However, the operation plan for the power supply system 400 may be the entire specific plan 7x.

[0126] As can be understood from the above description, the present disclosure discloses a method for simulating the power supply system 400 .

[0127] In one example, the power supply system 400 includes a solar cell 410, a group of fuel cells 420, and a storage battery 430. The simulation method includes a step of determining an operation plan for the power supply system 400 based on the amount of power demand, the amount of power generated by the solar cell 410, the fuel consumption of each fuel cell 425, the consumption of the lifespan of each fuel cell 425, and the consumption of the lifespan of the storage battery 430. This configuration is suitable for realizing a cost-effective power supply. Specifically, it is possible to create an operation plan for the power supply system 400 that is suitable for realizing a cost-effective power supply.

[0128] In one example, the operation plan for the power supply system 400 includes an operation plan for each fuel cell 425 and an operation plan for the storage battery 430. With this configuration, it is possible to create an operation plan for each fuel cell 425 and an operation plan for the storage battery 430 that are suitable for achieving a cost-effective power supply.

[0129] In one example, the simulation method includes a step of determining an operation plan for the power supply system 400 based on the cost of purchasing power from the power grid 500. With this configuration, it is possible to create an operation plan for the power supply system 400 that takes the power purchase cost into consideration and is suitable for achieving a cost-effective power supply. The power purchase cost is based on, for example, the amount of power purchased from the power grid 500 and the unit price of the power purchase.

[0130] In one example, the simulation method includes a step of determining an operation plan for the power supply system 400 by changing the operation of the fuel cell group 420. With this configuration, an operation plan for the power supply system 400 suitable for realizing a cost-effective power supply can be created by searching for an operation of the fuel cell group 420 suitable for realizing a cost-effective power supply.

[0131] In one example, changing the operation of the fuel cell group 420 includes changing the amount of power generated in one time step by any one of the fuel cells 425 in the fuel cell group 420. This configuration is well suited to simulations, which is advantageous from the perspective of accurately creating an operation plan for the power supply system 400 that is suitable for achieving cost-effective power supply using reasonable computer resources.

[0132] In one example, the operation plan for the power supply system 400 is determined under the condition that the fuel cell 425 has a partial load characteristic. The partial load characteristic is a characteristic in which the power generated by the fuel cell 425 has values ​​that can be taken and values ​​that cannot be taken within a range from zero or more to the rated power generation of the fuel cell 425. The actual power generated by a fuel cell may have values ​​that can be taken and values ​​that cannot be taken within a range from zero or more to the rated value of the fuel cell. With this configuration, when such a fuel cell is controlled according to the operation plan, the discrepancy between the control value and the actual value of the power generated by the fuel cell can be reduced. For example, the possible values ​​include zero. The possible values ​​include multiple values ​​that are greater than a predetermined power and less than the rated power generation. The impossible values ​​are values ​​that are greater than zero and less than the predetermined power. The predetermined power is greater than zero and less than the rated power generation.

[0133] In one example, the operation plan for power supply system 400 is determined under the condition that fuel cell 425 has a fuel cell degradation characteristic. The fuel cell degradation characteristic is a characteristic in which the upper limit of the power generated by fuel cell 425 is lower when the cumulative power generation time of fuel cell 425 is relatively long compared to when the cumulative power generation time of fuel cell 425 is relatively short. In reality, fuel cells may have a characteristic in which the upper limit of the power generated decreases as the cumulative power generation time increases. With this configuration, when such a fuel cell is controlled according to the operation plan, it is possible to reduce the difference between the control value and the actual value of the power generated by the fuel cell.

[0134] In one example, the operation plan of the power supply system 400 is determined under the condition that the storage battery 430 has a storage battery deterioration characteristic. The storage battery deterioration characteristic is determined as follows: when the cumulative charge / discharge time of the storage battery 430 is relatively long, the cumulative charge / discharge time of the storage battery 430 is relatively short, and the cumulative charge / discharge time of the storage battery 430 is relatively long. (c1) the upper limit of the charging power of the storage battery 430; (c2) the upper limit of the discharge power of the storage battery 430, and (c3) an upper limit of the amount of stored energy in the storage battery 430; and (iii) are low. In actual storage batteries, the longer the cumulative charge / discharge time, the lower the upper limit of the charge power, the lower the upper limit of the discharge power, and the lower the upper limit of the stored power. With this configuration, when controlling such a fuel cell according to an operation plan, it is possible to suppress the difference between the control value and the actual value of the discharge power of the storage battery.

[0135] In one example, the simulation method includes a first cost determination step of determining an operating cost of each fuel cell 425 based on fuel consumption of each fuel cell 425. The simulation method includes a second cost determination step of determining a lifetime cost of each fuel cell 425 based on consumption of the lifetime of each fuel cell 425. The simulation method includes a third cost determination step of determining a lifetime cost of the storage battery 430 based on consumption of the lifetime of the storage battery 430. The simulation method includes a fourth cost determination step of determining a power purchase cost based on the amount of power purchased from the power grid 500. The simulation method includes a step of determining an operation plan for the power supply system 400 based on these steps. With this configuration, an operation plan for the power supply system 400 suitable for achieving cost-effective power supply can be created through simulation using various cost indicators.

[0136] It is not essential that the simulation method include all of these cost determination steps. The simulation method may include at least one of these cost determination steps. The simulation method may also include a step of determining an operation plan for the power supply system 400 based on at least one of these cost determination steps.

[0137] In one example, the simulation method includes a step of determining an operation plan for the power supply system 400 based on a step of determining an operating cost for each fuel cell 425 based on the fuel consumption of each fuel cell 425. The operating cost for each fuel cell 425 is based on the amount of power generated by the fuel cell 425 and the unit price of fuel. With this configuration, the operating cost for each fuel cell 425 can be appropriately determined.

[0138] In one example, the simulation method includes determining an operation plan for the power supply system 400 by determining a lifetime cost for each fuel cell 425 based on consumption of the lifetime of each fuel cell 425. The lifetime cost of each fuel cell 425 is based on at least one selected from the group consisting of the number of times the fuel cell 425 is started, the cumulative power generation time of the fuel cell 425, and the elapsed time since the fuel cell 425 was installed. This configuration allows the lifetime cost of the fuel cell 425 to be appropriately determined. When the lifetime cost of the fuel cell 425 is based on two or three factors, namely, the number of times the fuel cell 425 is started, the cumulative power generation time of the fuel cell 425, and the elapsed time since the fuel cell 425 was installed, the lifetime cost may be a simple sum of the costs based on each factor, or a weighted sum of the costs. The lifetime cost of the fuel cell 425 may be based on only one of the number of times the fuel cell 425 is started, the cumulative power generation time of the fuel cell 425, and the elapsed time since the fuel cell 425 was installed.

[0139] In one example, the simulation method includes a step of determining an operation plan for the power supply system 400 by determining a lifetime cost of the storage battery 430 based on consumption over the lifetime of the storage battery 430. The lifetime cost of the storage battery 430 is based on at least one selected from the group consisting of the cumulative amount of discharged power of the storage battery 430, the cumulative amount of charged power of the storage battery 430, and the elapsed time since the storage battery 430 was installed. This configuration makes it possible to appropriately determine the lifetime cost of the storage battery 430. When the lifetime cost of the storage battery 430 is based on two or three elements of the cumulative amount of discharged power of the storage battery 430, the cumulative amount of charged power of the storage battery 430, and the elapsed time since the storage battery 430 was installed, the lifetime cost may be a simple sum of the costs based on each element, or a weighted sum of the costs. The lifetime cost of the storage battery 430 may be based on only one of the cumulative amount of discharged power of the storage battery 430, the cumulative amount of charged power of the storage battery 430, or the elapsed time since the storage battery 430 was installed.

[0140] In one example, the simulation method includes determining an operation plan for the power supply system 400 in response to a violation of a penalty condition of the power supply system 400. With this configuration, the operation plan can be created taking into account a situation in which a penalty should be imposed.

[0141] In one example, the penalty conditions include at least one condition selected from the group consisting of the following conditions (b1), (b2), (b3), (b4), (b5), (b6), (b7), and (b8). (b1) A condition that there is no sale of electricity from the power supply system 400 to the power grid 500. (b2) A condition that the SOC (State Of Charge) of the storage battery 430 is A% or more and B% or less, where A is a value greater than 0, and B is a value greater than A and less than 100. (b3) The condition that the discharge rate of the storage battery 430 is equal to or less than the maximum discharge rate. (b4) The condition that the charging rate of the storage battery 430 is equal to or less than the maximum charging rate. (b5) The condition that the rest time of the fuel cell 425 is equal to or longer than the minimum rest time. (b6) The condition that the continuous power generation time of the fuel cell 425 is equal to or less than the maximum continuous power generation time. (b7) The condition that the amount of power generated by the fuel cell 425 is within an allowed value. (b8) A condition that the power generated by the fuel cell 425 is within an allowed value. According to this configuration, an operation plan can be created taking into consideration at least one condition selected from the group consisting of condition (b1), condition (b2), condition (b3), condition (b4), condition (b5), condition (b6), condition (b7), and condition (b8).

[0142] In one example, the simulation method includes a step of determining a plurality of tentative plans 7 for the power supply system 400. When some of the plurality of tentative plans 7 violate the penalty conditions and some do not, the operation plan of the power supply system 400 is based on one of the plurality of tentative plans 7 that does not violate the penalty conditions (hereinafter referred to as a non-violation plan). Here, the expression "an operation plan based on a non-violation plan" is intended to encompass both a case in which the operation plan is a part of a non-violation plan and a case in which the operation plan is the entire non-violation plan.

[0143] In one example, the simulation method includes executing a processing loop that repeats unit processes. In the processing loop, the operation of the fuel cell group 420 is changed each time the unit process is repeated. Each unit process includes determining an operation cost of each fuel cell 425 based on the fuel consumption of each fuel cell 425 when the fuel cell group 420 performs the operation. Each unit process includes determining a lifetime cost of each fuel cell 425 based on the consumption of the lifetime of each fuel cell 425 when the fuel cell group 420 performs the operation. Each unit process includes determining an amount of power to be charged or discharged by the storage battery 430 based on the demanded power amount, the amount of power generated by the solar cell 410, and the power generated by the fuel cell group 420. Each unit process includes determining a lifetime cost of the storage battery 430 based on the consumption of the lifetime of the storage battery 430 when the storage battery 430 charges or discharges the determined amount of power. In this context, the "operation" of the fuel cell group 420 includes not only "power generation execution" but also "power generation stop."

[0144] In one example, the simulation method includes a step of determining an operation plan for the power supply system 400 based on a processing loop. In this configuration, the processing loop is compatible with simulation. This is advantageous from the viewpoint of accurately creating an operation plan for the power supply system 400 suitable for realizing a cost-effective power supply using reasonable computer resources.

[0145] In one example, the simulation method includes a step of determining an operation plan for the power supply system 400 by repeating a processing loop such that the operation of the fuel cell group 420 in any unit process in the previous processing loop is carried over to the first unit process of the subsequent processing loop. With this configuration, by providing the calculation result obtained in the previous processing loop to the subsequent processing loop, the calculation result obtained in the processing loop can be brought closer to the optimal value. Specifically, the carried over operation is the operation of the fuel cell group 420 in the unit process that achieves the minimum total cost in the previous processing loop.

[0146] In one example, the operating cost of the fuel cell 425 is a parameter that increases as the fuel consumption of the fuel cell 425 increases. The lifetime cost of the fuel cell 425 is a parameter that increases as the consumption of the lifetime of the fuel cell 425 increases. The lifetime cost of the storage battery 430 is a parameter that increases as the consumption of the lifetime of the storage battery 430 increases. Each unit process includes a step of determining a total cost including the operating cost of each fuel cell 425, the lifetime cost of each fuel cell 425, and the lifetime cost of the storage battery 430. The simulation method includes a step of determining an operation plan for the power supply system 400 by running a processing loop to find conditions that minimize the total cost. In this configuration, the process of minimizing the total cost is compatible with simulation. This is advantageous from the perspective of accurately creating an operation plan for the power supply system 400 that is suitable for achieving cost-effective power supply using reasonable computer resources. Specifically, the simulation method includes a step of determining an operation plan for the power supply system 400 based on the processing loop so as to minimize the total cost.

[0147] The present disclosure also discloses a method of operating the power supply system 400.

[0148] In one example, the operation method includes a step of executing the simulation method and a step of controlling the power supply system 400 in accordance with the operation plan determined by the simulation method. This configuration is suitable for realizing a cost-effective power supply.

[0149] The present disclosure also discloses a simulation device 200 for a power supply system 400.

[0150] In one example, the power supply system 400 includes a solar cell 410, a group of fuel cells 420, and a storage battery 430. The simulation device 200 includes a calculation unit 230. The calculation unit 230 determines an operation plan for the power supply system 400 based on the amount of power demand, the amount of power generated by the solar cell 410, the fuel consumption of each fuel cell 425, the consumption of the lifespan of each fuel cell 425, and the consumption of the lifespan of the storage battery 430.

[0151] The present disclosure also discloses a power system 100.

[0152] In one example, the power system 100 includes a simulation device 200, a power supply system 400, and a control device 300. The control device 300 controls the power supply system 400 in accordance with the operation plan determined by the simulation device 200.

[0153] The present disclosure also discloses a method for managing the power supply system 400.

[0154] In one example, the power supply system 400 includes a solar cell 410, a group of fuel cells 420, and a storage battery 430. The management method includes a step of transmitting a signal to a terminal 850 to cause the terminal 850 to display management information. The management information includes an operation plan for the power supply system 400 and a cost associated with the operation plan. The cost relates to the fuel consumption of each fuel cell 425, the consumption of the lifespan of each fuel cell 425, and the consumption of the lifespan of the storage battery 430. This configuration is suitable for cost-effective power supply because it can prompt the user of the terminal 850 to make improvements for cost-effective power supply when the cost is not appropriate. In one example, the "cost" is the total cost C of the specific plan 7x. TOTAL The cost may be related to the amount of power purchased from the power grid 500.

[0155] The terminal 850 that receives the signal can display the management information. The terminal 850 is, for example, a smartphone, a personal computer, a tablet, a mobile phone, or a personal digital assistant (PDA).

[0156] The present disclosure also discloses a management system 800 for the power supply system 400.

[0157] In one example, the power supply system 400 includes a solar cell 410, a group of fuel cells 420, and a storage battery 430. The management system 800 transmits a signal to a terminal 850 to cause the terminal 850 to display management information. The management information includes an operation plan for the power supply system 400 and costs associated with the operation plan. The costs relate to the consumption of fuel in each fuel cell 425, the consumption of the lifespan of each fuel cell 425, and the consumption of the lifespan of the storage battery 430. The costs may also relate to the amount of power purchased from the power grid 500.

[0158] The management system 800 may or may not be included in the power system 100. The management system 800 may be a device separate from the simulation device 200 and the control device 300. The management system 800 may communicate with the simulation device 200, or may communicate with the control device 300. One device may serve as both the management system 800 and the simulation device 200. One device may serve as both the management system 800 and the control device 300.

[0159] The above description of the embodiments discloses the following techniques.

[0160] (Technology 1) A method for simulating a power supply system, comprising: the power supply system includes a solar cell, a group of fuel cells, and a storage battery; The simulation method includes: The amount of electricity demand, The amount of power generated by the solar cell; and The fuel consumption of each fuel cell, The consumption of the life of each fuel cell, Consumption of the battery's lifespan; determining an operation plan for the power supply system based on the Simulation method.

[0161] (Technology 2) the operation plan of the power supply system includes an operation plan for each fuel cell and an operation plan for the storage battery; The simulation method described in Technology 1.

[0162] (Technology 3) determining the operation plan of the power supply system based on a cost of purchasing power from a power grid; The simulation method according to Technology 1 or 2.

[0163] (Technology 4) determining the operation plan of the power supply system by changing the operation of the fuel cell group; The simulation method according to any one of techniques 1 to 3.

[0164] (Technology 5) changing the operation of the fuel cell group includes changing the amount of power generated by any one of the fuel cells in the fuel cell group in one time step; The simulation method described in Technology 4.

[0165] (Technology 6) The operation plan of the power supply system is determined under a condition where the fuel cell has a partial load characteristic; The partial load characteristic is a characteristic in which the power generated by the fuel cell has values ​​that it can take and values ​​that it cannot take within a range from zero to a rated value. 6. A simulation method according to any one of techniques 1 to 5.

[0166] (Technology 7) determining an operating cost for each fuel cell based on the consumption of the fuel by each fuel cell; determining a lifetime cost for each fuel cell based on the consumption of the lifetime of each fuel cell; determining a lifetime cost of the battery based on the consumption of the lifetime of the battery; determining a power purchase cost based on the amount of power purchased from the power grid; determining the operation plan of the power supply system based on at least one selected from the group consisting of: 7. A simulation method according to any one of techniques 1 to 6.

[0167] (Technology 8) determining the operation plan of the power supply system based on determining an operating cost of each fuel cell based on the consumption of the fuel in each fuel cell; the operating cost of the fuel cell is based on the amount of power generated by the fuel cell; 8. A simulation method according to any one of techniques 1 to 7.

[0168] (Technology 9) determining the operation plan of the power supply system based on determining a lifetime cost of each fuel cell based on consumption of the lifetime of each fuel cell; The lifetime cost of the fuel cell is: the number of times the fuel cell is started; The cumulative power generation time of the fuel cell, and the time elapsed since the fuel cell was installed; is based on at least one selected from the group consisting of: 9. A simulation method according to any one of techniques 1 to 8.

[0169] (Technology 10) determining the operation plan of the power supply system based on determining a lifetime cost of the battery based on consumption of the lifetime of the battery; The lifetime cost of the battery is: The cumulative discharged power amount of the storage battery; The cumulative amount of charged energy of the storage battery, and The time elapsed since the battery was installed; is based on at least one selected from the group consisting of: 10. A simulation method according to any one of techniques 1 to 9.

[0170] (Technology 11) determining the operation plan of the power supply system in response to a violation of a penalty condition of the power supply system; 11. A simulation method according to any one of techniques 1 to 10.

[0171] (Technology 12) The penalty condition is: a condition that there is no sale of electricity from the power supply system to the power grid; A condition that the SOC of the storage battery is A% or more and B% or less, where A is a value greater than 0, and B is a value greater than A and less than 100. the discharge rate of the battery is less than or equal to a maximum discharge rate; the charging rate of the battery is less than or equal to a maximum charging rate; a condition that the rest time of the fuel cell is equal to or greater than a minimum rest time; a condition that the continuous power generation time of the fuel cell is equal to or less than a maximum continuous power generation time; The condition that the amount of power generated by the fuel cell is an allowed value; and a condition that the power generated by the fuel cell is within an allowed value; At least one condition selected from the group consisting of: The simulation method described in Technology 11.

[0172] (Technology 13) determining a plurality of interim plans for the power supply system; When some of the plurality of tentative plans violate the penalty condition and others do not, the operation plan of the power supply system is based on one of the plurality of tentative plans that does not violate the penalty condition. The simulation method according to Technology 11 or 12.

[0173] (Technology 14) the simulation method includes executing a processing loop that repeats a unit process; In the processing loop, the operation of the fuel cell group is changed each time the unit process is repeated; Each unit process is determining an operating cost for each fuel cell based on the fuel consumption of each fuel cell when the group of fuel cells performs the operation; determining a lifetime cost for each fuel cell based on the consumption of the lifetime of each fuel cell when the group of fuel cells performs the operation; determining the amount of power to be charged or discharged by the storage battery based on the amount of power demand, the amount of power generated by the solar cell, and the power generated by the fuel cell group; determining a lifetime cost of the storage battery based on consumption of the lifetime of the storage battery when the storage battery charges or discharges the determined amount of power; Including, the simulation method includes determining the operation plan for the power supply system based on the processing loop. 14. A simulation method according to any one of claims 1 to 13.

[0174] (Technology 15) the simulation method includes determining the operation plan of the power supply system by repeating the processing loop such that an operation of the fuel cell group in any one of the unit processes in the previous processing loop is carried over to the first unit process of the subsequent processing loop; The simulation method described in Technology 14.

[0175] (Technology 16) the operating cost of the fuel cell is a parameter that increases as the fuel consumption of the fuel cell increases, the lifetime cost of the fuel cell is a parameter that increases as the lifetime of the fuel cell is consumed more; The life cost of the storage battery is a parameter that increases as the consumption of the life of the storage battery increases, each unit process includes determining a total cost including the operating cost of each fuel cell, the lifetime cost of each fuel cell, and the lifetime cost of the battery; the simulation method includes determining the operation plan of the power supply system by running the processing loop to find a condition that reduces the total cost; The simulation method according to technique 14 or 15.

[0176] (Technology 17) The operation plan of the power supply system is determined under a condition in which the fuel cell has a fuel cell degradation characteristic; The fuel cell deterioration characteristic is a characteristic in which the upper limit of the power generation capacity of the fuel cell is lower when the cumulative power generation time of the fuel cell is relatively long compared to when the cumulative power generation time of the fuel cell is relatively short. 17. A simulation method according to any one of claims 1 to 16.

[0177] (Technology 18) the operation plan of the power supply system is determined under a condition that the storage battery has a storage battery deterioration characteristic; The deterioration characteristic of the storage battery is such that, when the cumulative charge / discharge time of the storage battery is relatively long, the deterioration characteristic is compared with when the cumulative charge / discharge time of the storage battery is relatively short, (c1) an upper limit of the charging power of the storage battery; (c2) an upper limit of the discharge power of the storage battery; and (c3) an upper limit of the amount of stored energy in the storage battery; At least one selected from the group consisting of: 18. A simulation method according to any one of claims 1 to 17.

[0178] (Technology 19) Executing the simulation method according to any one of techniques 1 to 18; controlling the power supply system in accordance with the operation plan determined by the simulation method. How to drive.

[0179] (Technology 20) A power supply system simulation device, the power supply system includes a solar cell, a group of fuel cells, and a storage battery; The simulation device includes: The amount of electricity demand, The amount of power generated by the solar cell; and The fuel consumption of each fuel cell, The consumption of the life of each fuel cell, Consumption of the battery's lifespan; A calculation unit that determines an operation plan for the power supply system based on the Simulation device.

[0180] (Technology 21) A simulation device according to Technology 20; the power supply system; a control device that controls the power supply system in accordance with the operation plan determined by the simulation device; A power system comprising:

[0181] (Technology 22) A method for managing a power supply system including a group of fuel cells and a storage battery, comprising: transmitting a signal to a terminal to cause the terminal to display the management information; the management information includes an operation plan for the power supply system and a cost associated with the operation plan; The cost is The fuel consumption of each fuel cell, The consumption of the life of each fuel cell, Consumption of the battery's lifespan; It is related to Management method.

[0182] (Technology 23) The cost relates to the amount of electricity purchased from the power grid. The management method described in Technology 22.

[0183] (Technology 24) A management system for a power supply system including a group of fuel cells and a storage battery, the management system transmits a signal to a terminal to cause the terminal to display management information; the management information includes an operation plan for the power supply system and a cost associated with the operation plan; The cost is The fuel consumption of each fuel cell, The consumption of the life of each fuel cell, Consumption of the battery's lifespan; It is related to Management system.

[0184] (Technology 25) The cost relates to the amount of electricity purchased from the power grid. The management system described in Technology 24. [Industrial Applicability]

[0185] The technology of the present disclosure is useful for improving TCO (Total Cost of Ownership), etc. [Explanation of symbols]

[0186] 5. Trial Subjects 6. Transfer target 7. Tentative Plan 100 Power Systems 200 Simulation Device 210 Information Department 220 Prediction Department 230 Calculation Unit 300 control device 400 Power Supply System 410 Solar Cells 420 Fuel Cell Group 425 Fuel Cell 430 Storage Battery 500 Power system 600 load 800 Management System 850 terminals

Claims

1. A method for simulating a power supply system, comprising: the power supply system includes a solar cell, a group of fuel cells, and a storage battery; The simulation method includes: The amount of electricity demand, The amount of power generated by the solar cell; and The fuel consumption of each fuel cell, The consumption of the life of each fuel cell, Consumption of the battery's lifespan; determining an operation plan for the power supply system based on the Simulation method.

2. the operation plan of the power supply system includes an operation plan for each fuel cell and an operation plan for the storage battery; The simulation method according to claim 1 .

3. determining the operation plan of the power supply system based on a cost of purchasing power from a power grid; The simulation method according to claim 1 .

4. determining the operation plan of the power supply system by changing the operation of the fuel cell group; The simulation method according to claim 1 .

5. changing the operation of the fuel cell group includes changing the amount of power generated by any one of the fuel cells in the fuel cell group in one time step; The simulation method according to claim 4 .

6. The operation plan of the power supply system is determined under a condition where the fuel cell has a partial load characteristic; The partial load characteristic is a characteristic in which the power generated by the fuel cell has values ​​that it can take and values ​​that it cannot take within a range from zero to a rated value. The simulation method according to claim 1 .

7. determining an operating cost for each fuel cell based on the consumption of the fuel by each fuel cell; determining a lifetime cost for each fuel cell based on the consumption of the lifetime of each fuel cell; determining a lifetime cost of the battery based on the consumption of the lifetime of the battery; determining a power purchase cost based on the amount of power purchased from the power grid; determining the operation plan of the power supply system based on at least one selected from the group consisting of: The simulation method according to claim 1 .

8. determining the operation plan of the power supply system based on determining an operating cost of each fuel cell based on the consumption of the fuel in each fuel cell; the operating cost of the fuel cell is based on the amount of power generated by the fuel cell; The simulation method according to claim 1 .

9. determining the operation plan of the power supply system based on determining a lifetime cost of each fuel cell based on consumption of the lifetime of each fuel cell; The lifetime cost of the fuel cell is: the number of times the fuel cell is started; The cumulative power generation time of the fuel cell, and the time elapsed since the fuel cell was installed; is based on at least one selected from the group consisting of: The simulation method according to claim 1 .

10. determining the operation plan of the power supply system based on determining a lifetime cost of the battery based on consumption of the lifetime of the battery; The lifetime cost of the battery is: The cumulative discharged power amount of the storage battery; The cumulative amount of charged energy of the storage battery, and The time elapsed since the battery was installed; is based on at least one selected from the group consisting of: The simulation method according to claim 1 .

11. determining the operation plan of the power supply system in response to a violation of a penalty condition of the power supply system; The simulation method according to claim 1 .

12. The penalty condition is: a condition that there is no sale of electricity from the power supply system to the power grid; A condition that the SOC of the storage battery is A% or more and B% or less, where A is a value greater than 0, and B is a value greater than A and less than 100. the discharge rate of the battery is less than or equal to a maximum discharge rate; the charging rate of the battery is less than or equal to a maximum charging rate; a condition that the rest time of the fuel cell is equal to or greater than a minimum rest time; a condition that the continuous power generation time of the fuel cell is equal to or less than a maximum continuous power generation time; The condition that the amount of power generated by the fuel cell is an allowed value; and a condition that the power generated by the fuel cell is within an allowed value; At least one condition selected from the group consisting of: The simulation method according to claim 11.

13. determining a plurality of interim plans for the power supply system; When some of the plurality of tentative plans violate the penalty condition and others do not, the operation plan of the power supply system is based on one of the plurality of tentative plans that does not violate the penalty condition. The simulation method according to claim 11.

14. the simulation method includes executing a processing loop that repeats a unit process; In the processing loop, the operation of the fuel cell group is changed each time the unit process is repeated; Each unit process is determining an operating cost for each fuel cell based on the fuel consumption of each fuel cell when the group of fuel cells performs the operation; determining a lifetime cost for each fuel cell based on the consumption of the lifetime of each fuel cell when the group of fuel cells performs the operation; determining the amount of power to be charged or discharged by the storage battery based on the amount of power demand, the amount of power generated by the solar cell, and the power generated by the fuel cell group; determining a lifetime cost of the storage battery based on consumption of the lifetime of the storage battery when the storage battery charges or discharges the determined amount of power; Including, the simulation method includes determining the operation plan for the power supply system based on the processing loop. The simulation method according to claim 1 .

15. the simulation method includes determining the operation plan of the power supply system by repeating the processing loop such that an operation of the fuel cell group in any one of the unit processes in the previous processing loop is carried over to the first unit process of the subsequent processing loop; The simulation method according to claim 14.

16. the operating cost of the fuel cell is a parameter that increases as the fuel consumption of the fuel cell increases, the lifetime cost of the fuel cell is a parameter that increases as the lifetime of the fuel cell is consumed more; The life cost of the storage battery is a parameter that increases as the consumption of the life of the storage battery increases, each unit process includes determining a total cost including the operating cost of each fuel cell, the lifetime cost of each fuel cell, and the lifetime cost of the battery; the simulation method includes determining the operation plan of the power supply system by running the processing loop to find a condition that reduces the total cost; The simulation method according to claim 14.

17. The operation plan of the power supply system is determined under a condition in which the fuel cell has a fuel cell degradation characteristic; The fuel cell deterioration characteristic is a characteristic in which the upper limit of the power generation capacity of the fuel cell is lower when the cumulative power generation time of the fuel cell is relatively long compared to when the cumulative power generation time of the fuel cell is relatively short. The simulation method according to claim 1 .

18. the operation plan of the power supply system is determined under a condition that the storage battery has a storage battery deterioration characteristic; The deterioration characteristic of the storage battery is such that, when the cumulative charge / discharge time of the storage battery is relatively long, the deterioration characteristic is compared with when the cumulative charge / discharge time of the storage battery is relatively short, (c1) an upper limit of charging power of the storage battery; (c2) an upper limit of the discharge power of the storage battery; and (c3) an upper limit of the amount of stored power in the storage battery; and wherein at least one selected from the group consisting of: The simulation method according to claim 1 .

19. Executing a simulation method according to any one of claims 1 to 18; controlling the power supply system in accordance with the operation plan determined by the simulation method. How to drive.

20. A power supply system simulation device, the power supply system includes a solar cell, a group of fuel cells, and a storage battery; The simulation device includes: The amount of electricity demand, The amount of power generated by the solar cell; and The fuel consumption of each fuel cell, The consumption of the life of each fuel cell, Consumption of the battery's lifespan; A calculation unit that determines an operation plan for the power supply system based on the Simulation device.

21. The simulation device according to claim 20; the power supply system; a control device that controls the power supply system in accordance with the operation plan determined by the simulation device; A power system comprising:

22. A method for managing a power supply system including a group of fuel cells and a storage battery, comprising: transmitting a signal to a terminal to cause the terminal to display the management information; the management information includes an operation plan for the power supply system and a cost associated with the operation plan; The cost is The fuel consumption of each fuel cell, The consumption of the life of each fuel cell, Consumption of the battery's lifespan; It is related to Management method.

23. The cost relates to the amount of electricity purchased from the power grid. The management method according to claim 22.

24. A management system for a power supply system including a group of fuel cells and a storage battery, the management system transmits a signal to a terminal to cause the terminal to display management information; the management information includes an operation plan for the power supply system and a cost associated with the operation plan; The cost is The fuel consumption of each fuel cell, The consumption of the life of each fuel cell, Consumption of the battery's lifespan; It is related to Management system.

25. The cost relates to the amount of electricity purchased from the power grid.

25. The management system of claim 24.

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