Information processing apparatus, information processing method, and information processing program

Abstract

To provide an information processing apparatus, method, and program that easily estimate the total effective power of photovoltaic power generation facilities by using a measured value of the amount of solar radiation.SOLUTION: An information processing apparatus estimates the total effective power of a photovoltaic power generation facility of an electric power system 1 that is connected with a plurality of consumers including a consumer C1 having a load R, a consumer C2 having a photovoltaic power generation facility PV, and a consumer C3 having the load R and the photovoltaic power generation facility PV. The information processing apparatus estimates the total effective power of the photovoltaic power generation facility, by using a model generated on the basis of a formula representing the total of the total effective power of the loads and the total effective power of the photovoltaic power generation facilities, a formula representing the total of the total wattless power of the loads and the total wattless power of the photovoltaic power generation facilities, a formula representing the correlation between the total effective power of the loads and the total wattless power of the loads, a formula representing the correlation between the total effective power of the photovoltaic power generation facilities and the total wattless power of the photovoltaic power generation facilities, and a formula representing the correlation between the amount of solar radiation and the total effective power of the photovoltaic power generation facilities.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to an information processing device, an information processing method, and an information processing program. [Background technology]

[0002] There is a strong correlation between the output of a photovoltaic power generation facility and the amount of solar radiation. A technique is known that takes advantage of this strong correlation and estimates the total output of photovoltaic power generation facilities connected to a power grid using measured values ​​of solar radiation (for example, Patent Document 1). [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2006-210750 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] However, the invention described in Patent Document 1 requires a large number of parameters for estimation, including unknown parameters, which may make the process of estimating the total output of the photovoltaic power generation facility complicated.

[0005] The present invention has been made in consideration of these problems, and aims to provide an information processing device that can easily estimate the total active power of a solar power generation facility using measured values ​​of solar radiation. [Means for solving the problem]

[0006] One invention for achieving the above object is an information processing device that estimates the total active power of photovoltaic power generation equipment in a power system to which multiple consumers are connected, including a first consumer having a load, a second consumer having a photovoltaic power generation equipment, and a third consumer having the load and the photovoltaic power generation equipment, the information processing device comprising: an acquisition unit that acquires a model created based on: a first equation indicating the sum of the total active power of the load and the total active power of the photovoltaic power generation equipment; a second equation indicating the sum of the total reactive power of the load and the total reactive power of the photovoltaic power generation equipment; a third equation indicating the correlation between the total active power of the load and the total reactive power of the load; a fourth equation indicating the correlation between the total active power of the photovoltaic power generation equipment and the total reactive power of the photovoltaic power generation equipment; and a fifth equation indicating the correlation between the amount of solar radiation and the total active power of the photovoltaic power generation equipment; and an estimation unit that estimates the total active power of the photovoltaic power generation equipment using the model.

[0007] Further, an information processing method in which an information processing device estimates the total active power of photovoltaic power generation equipment in a power system to which multiple consumers are connected, including a first consumer having a load, a second consumer having a photovoltaic power generation equipment, and a third consumer having the load and the photovoltaic power generation equipment, includes the steps of: acquiring a model created based on: a first equation indicating the sum of the total active power of the loads and the total active power of the photovoltaic power generation equipment; a second equation indicating the sum of the total reactive power of the loads and the total reactive power of the photovoltaic power generation equipment; a third equation indicating the correlation between the total active power of the loads and the total reactive power of the loads; a fourth equation indicating the correlation between the total active power of the photovoltaic power generation equipment and the total reactive power of the photovoltaic power generation equipment; and a fifth equation indicating the correlation between the amount of solar radiation and the total active power of the photovoltaic power generation equipment; and estimating the total active power of the photovoltaic power generation equipment using the model.

[0008] The present invention also provides an information processing program for estimating the total active power of a photovoltaic power generation facility in a power grid to which multiple consumers are connected, including a first consumer having a load, a second consumer having a photovoltaic power generation facility, and a third consumer having the load and the photovoltaic power generation facility, the information processing program causing a computer to implement an acquisition unit that acquires a model created based on: a first equation representing the sum of the active powers of the loads and the total active power of the photovoltaic power generation facility; a second equation representing the sum of the reactive powers of the loads and the total reactive power of the photovoltaic power generation facility; a third equation representing the correlation between the total active powers of the loads and the total reactive power of the photovoltaic power generation facility; and a fifth equation representing the correlation between the amount of solar radiation and the total active power of the photovoltaic power generation facility. Other features of the present invention will become apparent from the description of this specification. [Effects of the Invention]

[0009] According to the present invention, it is possible to provide an information processing device that can easily estimate the total active power of a photovoltaic power generation facility using measured values ​​of the amount of solar radiation. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0010] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of a power system 1. [Figure 2] 1 is a diagram showing an example of equipment owned by each consumer C included in a power system 1. FIG. [Figure 3] FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a hardware configuration of an information processing device 2 according to an embodiment. [Figure 4] FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating functional blocks of an information processing device 2 according to an embodiment. [Figure 5] 10 is a flowchart illustrating a process performed by the information processing device 2 according to the embodiment until the information processing device 2 outputs a state value. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0011] == Implementation form == <<Power system 1>> 1 is a diagram showing an example of a power system 1 in which an information processing device 2 (described later) estimates the total active power of a photovoltaic power generation facility. The power system 1 includes a distribution substation 10, a distribution line 11, and a plurality of nodes N installed at predetermined positions on the distribution line 11. i (i is an integer) and sensor-equipped switches SW1 and SW2 installed at predetermined positions on the distribution line 11.

[0012] [Distribution Substation 10] The distribution substation 10 transforms the voltage supplied from a transmission line (not shown) and outputs a voltage of 6.6 kV to the distribution line 11.

[0013] [Power Distribution Line 11] The distribution lines 11 originate from the distribution substation 10 (sending node) and are connected in a radial pattern to the distribution substation 10. Only one distribution line 11 is shown in Fig. 1. The distribution line 11 is a three-phase AC distribution line.

[0014] [node] The nodes are provided on the power distribution line 11. In this embodiment, the nodes are aggregation units managed on a high-voltage power receiving point basis, including a pole transformer (not shown). The power output from the power distribution substation 10 to the power distribution line 11 is supplied to a consumer C via the nodes. Note that FIG. 1 shows an example in which three nodes N1 to N3 are provided. Note that the number of nodes is not limited to three.

[0015] [Switches with sensors SW1 and SW2] Each of the sensor-equipped switch SW1 and the sensor-equipped switch SW2 is a switch having a sensor capable of periodically measuring at least voltage, active power flow, and reactive power flow at the installation point.

[0016] The sensor-equipped switch SW1 and the sensor-equipped switch SW2 are similar. In this embodiment, the sensor-equipped switch SW1 measures measured values ​​at a measurement interval of one minute from 0:00 to 23:59 on one calendar day.

[0017] The measurement period of the sensor-equipped switch SW1 does not necessarily have to be one minute, and the measurement periods of all the sensor-equipped switches SW do not necessarily have to be the same.

[0018] [Customer classification] Each of the multiple consumers C has at least one of a load or a solar power generation facility. The multiple consumers C are classified into three consumers C1, C2, and C3 based on the purchase method of electricity generated by the solar power generation facility (PV (PhotoVoltaic)) depending on whether or not they have a power purchase contract with the electric power company and the content of the contract.

[0019] Specifically, consumer C1 is a consumer without a PV grid connection who has not concluded a power purchase contract with the electric power company. Consumer C2 is a consumer who has concluded a total purchase contract with the electric power company and is a consumer who is a PV total purchase consumer. Consumer C3 is a consumer who has concluded a surplus purchase contract with the electric power company and is a PV surplus purchase consumer.

[0020] FIG. 1 shows an example in which a customer C1 is located at a node N1, a customer C2 is located at a node N2, and a customer C3 is located at a node N3.

[0021] Furthermore, consumer C1 corresponds to a "first consumer." Consumer C2 corresponds to a "second consumer." Consumer C3 corresponds to a "third consumer." Furthermore, when there is no need to distinguish between consumers C1 to C3, they will simply be referred to as "consumer C."

[0022] In this embodiment, the electricity purchased is electricity generated by a photovoltaic power generation facility. Hereinafter, in this embodiment, the purchasing method for electricity generated by a photovoltaic power generation facility is referred to as a "PV purchasing method."

[0023] The consumer C1 without PV grid connection is a consumer that has a load that consumes power but does not have a power generation facility that is the subject of a power purchase contract. The load consumes power supplied from the power distribution line 11. In other words, the consumer C1 without PV grid connection purchases power supplied from the power distribution line 11.

[0024] For example, a factory is connected to node N1 in Fig. 1 as a facility of consumer C1 that has a load that consumes power and is not connected to a PV grid. Power output from distribution substation 10 to distribution line 11 is supplied to the factory via node N1.

[0025] PV full-amount purchase consumer C2 is a consumer who does not have a load that consumes electricity, but has a solar power generation facility that is subject to a full-amount purchase contract. Full-amount purchase consumer C2 sells all of the electricity generated by its own solar power generation facility.

[0026] For example, a solar power generation facility installed in a factory is connected to node N2 in Figure 1 as the facility of consumer C2 who has solar power generation equipment and is a PV full-volume buyback customer. This PV full-volume buyback customer C2 sells all of the electricity generated by the solar power generation facility installed in the factory.

[0027] A PV surplus purchase customer C3 has a load that consumes electricity and a solar power generation facility that is the subject of a surplus purchase contract. The load consumes electricity supplied from the distribution line 11 and at least a portion of the electricity generated by its own solar power generation facility.

[0028] That is, the PV surplus purchase consumer C3 purchases the power supplied from the power distribution line 11 and consumes at least a portion of the power generated by the solar power generation facility. Furthermore, the PV surplus purchase consumer C3 sells the power (surplus power) generated by the solar power generation facility excluding the power consumed.

[0029] For example, a factory in which a photovoltaic power generation facility is installed is connected to node N3 in FIG. 1 as a facility of a PV surplus purchase customer C3 having a load that consumes power and a photovoltaic power generation facility.

[0030] The power output from the distribution substation 10 to the distribution line 11 is supplied to the loads in the factory via the node N3. Furthermore, at least a portion of the power generated by the solar power generation facility is supplied to the loads in the factory.

[0031] 2 is a diagram showing an example of facilities owned by consumers C1 to C3 included in the power system 1. Each facility owned by consumers C1 to C3 is connected to a distribution line 11 via a high-voltage power receiving facility 12.

[0032] Each facility of the customers C1 to C3 is connected to the high-voltage power receiving facility 12 via on-site wiring W. A watt-hour meter SM (details will be described later) is installed in each of the customers C1 to C3 included in the power system 1.

[0033] In a customer C1 without PV grid connection, a load R is connected to a distribution line 11 via a high-voltage power receiving facility 12. The customer C1 does not have a photovoltaic power generation facility.

[0034] At a consumer C2 that purchases all PV power, a photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 is connected to a distribution line 11 via a high-voltage power receiving facility 12. The photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 is connected to the high-voltage power receiving facility 12 via a power conditioner PCS.

[0035] At a PV surplus purchase customer C3, a load R and a photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 are connected to a distribution line 11 via a high-voltage power receiving facility 12.

[0036] The photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 of the consumer C3 is connected to the high-voltage power receiving facility 12 via a power conditioner PCS that converts DC power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 into AC power.

[0037] In the example shown in the figure, a power conditioner PCS is assumed to be connected to the power grid 1 at high voltage, but even if the power conditioner PCS is connected at low voltage within the premises, this embodiment will treat it in the same way as if it were connected at high voltage.

[0038] In the following description, when there is no need to distinguish between the photovoltaic power generation facility PV1 of the customer C2 and the photovoltaic power generation facility PV2 of the customer C3, they will simply be referred to as "photovoltaic power generation facility PV."

[0039] [Power meter SM] The watt-hour meter SM is installed in each of the consumers C included in the power system 1. As the watt-hour meter SM, a so-called smart meter can be used.

[0040] The watt-hour meter SM is a watt-hour meter that can periodically measure the integrated values ​​of the active power and reactive power of the consumer C. The amount obtained by dividing the measured value measured by the watt-hour meter SM by the measurement period is the average value of the active power and reactive power during the measurement period.

[0041] In this embodiment, the active power and reactive power at each time within one measurement period are respectively the average values ​​of the active power and reactive power within the measurement period. In other words, the watthour meter SM is a watthour meter that can measure active power and reactive power.

[0042] In this embodiment, the measurement period of all the watt-hour meters SM is 30 minutes. The watt-hour meters SM measure measurement values ​​at 30-minute measurement periods from 0:00 to 23:30 in one calendar day.

[0043] It should be noted that the measurement period of the watt-hour meters SM does not necessarily have to be 30 minutes, and the measurement periods of all the watt-hour meters SM do not necessarily have to be the same.

[0044] As shown in FIGS. 1 and 2, each of the consumers C1 to C3 is provided with a watt-hour meter SM capable of measuring active power and reactive power.

[0045] For consumer C1 without PV grid connection, one watt-hour meter SM is installed for the load R that consumes electricity. The watt-hour meter SM installed at consumer C1 without PV grid connection measures the amount of electricity used by load R at regular intervals.

[0046] Therefore, the measured value measured by the watt-hour meter SM installed in the consumer C1 without PV grid connection indicates the active power and reactive power of the load R.

[0047] Furthermore, for consumer C2 who is purchasing all of their PV power, one watt-hour meter SM is installed for their solar power generation facility PV1. The watt-hour meter SM installed at consumer C2 who is purchasing all of their PV power measures the amount of power generated by their own solar power generation facility PV1 at regular intervals.

[0048] Therefore, the measured value of the watt-hour meter SM installed at the consumer C2 who purchases all PV power indicates only the active power and reactive power of its own photovoltaic power generation facility PV1.

[0049] Furthermore, for PV surplus purchase consumer C3, one watt-hour meter SM is installed for the load R that consumes electricity and the solar power generation facility PV2. The watt-hour meter SM installed at PV surplus purchase consumer C3 periodically measures the amount of electricity, which is the sum of the amount of electricity used by load R and the amount of electricity generated by its own solar power generation facility PV2.

[0050] In other words, the active power measured by the watt-hour meter SM installed at PV surplus purchase consumer C3 is a mixture of the active power of the load R and the active power of the output of its own solar power generation facility PV2. Also, the reactive power measured by the watt-hour meter SM is a mixture of the reactive power of the load R and the reactive power of the output of its own solar power generation facility PV2.

[0051] <Solar radiation meter 3> The actinometer 3 is an instrument that measures the amount of solar radiation. The specifications of the actinometer 3 are not particularly limited, and a general-purpose actinometer may be used. Solar radiation amount information indicating the amount of solar radiation measured by the actinometer 3 is transmitted to the information processing device 2 via a communication network (not shown).

[0052] <<Information processing device 2>> The information processing device 2 is a device that estimates the total value of the active power of the photovoltaic power generation equipment PV in the target section (corresponding to the "predetermined section") of the power system 1 using the measured values ​​from the watt-hour meters SM of each of the consumers C1 to C3 and the measured values ​​from the solar radiation meter 3.

[0053] The hardware configuration of the information processing device 2, various databases, and functional blocks of the information processing device 2 will be described below.

[0054] <Hardware configuration of information processing device 2>

[0055] The information processing device 2 is a device that estimates the total active power of photovoltaic power generation facilities in the power system 1 to which a plurality of consumers including a consumer C1, a consumer C2, and a consumer C3 are connected.

[0056] 4 is a diagram illustrating the hardware configuration of the information processing device 2 of this embodiment. The information processing device 2 is a computer having a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 200, a memory 201, a communication device 202, a storage device 203, an input device 204, an output device 205, and a recording medium reader 206.

[0057] [CPU200] The CPU 200 executes information processing programs stored in the memory 201 and the storage device 203 to realize various functions of the information processing device 2.

[0058] [Memory 201] The memory 201 is, for example, a RAM (Random-Access Memory) and is used as a temporary storage area for various programs, data, and the like.

[0059] [Communication device 202] The communication device 202 exchanges various programs and data with other computers via the communication network 5 .

[0060] [Storage device 203] The storage device 203 is a non-transitory (eg, non-volatile) storage device that stores various databases executed or processed by the CPU 200.

[0061] The storage device 203 stores various databases such as a system information DB 220, a facility information DB 221, a model information DB 222, a measurement value DB 223, and an estimated value DB 224. These will be described in detail later.

[0062] [Input device 204] The input device 204 is a device that accepts commands and data input by a user, and includes an input interface such as a keyboard and a touch sensor that detects a touch position on a touch panel display.

[0063] [Output Device 205] The output device 205 is, for example, a display or a printer.

[0064] [Recording medium reader 206] The recording medium reader 206 reads various data such as information processing programs recorded on a recording medium 4 such as a memory card, optical disk, or compact disk, and stores the data in the storage device 203 .

[0065] <Various databases> As described above, the storage device 203 stores various databases such as the system information DB 220, the equipment information DB 221, the model information DB 222, the measurement value DB 223, and the estimated value DB 224. Each of these will be described below.

[0066] [Strain information DB220] The system information DB 220 is a database related to system information of the power system 1. The system information is information that represents the components of the power system 1 in the target section. The components of the power system 1 include, for example, the identifiers of each of the multiple nodes in the target section, the identifiers of the nodes to which each of the multiple nodes is connected, etc.

[0067] 1, the components of the power system 1 include the identifiers of the nodes N1 to N3, and also include the identifier of the node N1, which is the upstream node, as the connection destination of the node N2, for example.

[0068] [Equipment information DB221] The facility information DB221 is a database relating to facility information of each of the multiple consumers C included in the power system 1. The facility information includes information relating to the classification type of each of the multiple consumers C, the multiple loads R in the target section, and each of the multiple photovoltaic power generation facilities PV.

[0069] The classification type is a classification of the above-mentioned three types of consumers (consumers C1 to C3). The information related to each of the photovoltaic power generation facilities PV includes the capacity of each of the photovoltaic power generation facilities PV and the power factor set for each of the plurality of photovoltaic power generation facilities PV1.

[0070] [Model information DB222] The model information DB 222 is a database related to an estimation model M (details of which will be described later) required in the processing of the estimation unit 213, which will be described later.

[0071] The model information DB 222 stores the estimation model M as well as parameters used in the estimation model M (for example, the power factor of the load R used in the estimation model M, the power factor of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV, etc.; details will be described later).

[0072] [Measurement value DB223] The measurement value DB223 is a database that accumulates measurement values ​​measured at a predetermined interval by the electricity meter SM possessed by each consumer C included in the power system 1, and measurement values ​​of the amount of solar radiation measured at each time by the solar radiation meter 3.

[0073] The measured value DB 222 stores, for example, the measured values ​​of the amount of solar radiation at the installation point of the solar radiation meter 3 for every 30 minutes over the past five years.

[0074] The data stored in the measurement value DB223 may be stored in advance in the storage device 203, or may be updated at any time by the CPU200 acquiring measurement values ​​from the electricity meter SM and the solar radiation meter 3 via the communication device 202 and writing the acquired measurement values ​​to the measurement value DB223.

[0075] [Estimated value DB224] The estimated value DB 224 stores the total active power P of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV estimated by the estimation unit 213 described later. PV (described later), and the total active power of the load R, P LD (described below) is recorded in this database.

[0076] <Estimated model M> The above-mentioned model information DB 222 stores information about the estimation model M used in this embodiment. The estimation model M will be described below.

[0077] The estimation model M (corresponding to "model") is a model created based on Equation 1, Equation 2, Equation 3, Equation 5, and Equation 7, which will be explained below.

[0078] The following formula 1 (corresponding to "Formula 1") is the total active power P of the load R of multiple consumers C1 and C3. LD and the total active power P of the solar power generation facilities PV of multiple consumers C2 and C3 PV This is an equation that shows the sum of and. In the following explanation, t is time.

number

[0079] The sum of the measured values ​​of the active power of the power system 1 is substituted for P(t) on the left side. As will be described later in detail, P(t) is the measured value p of the active power of each of the multiple consumers C (C1 to C3). C (t) is the sum of the two values.

[0080] P in the second term on the right side LD and paragraph 3, paragraph P. PVis an unknown quantity and is estimated by the processing of the estimation unit 213, which will be described later.

[0081] In other words, the left side of Equation 1 and the sum of the first and second terms on the right side ideally match. As a result of estimation, an error e1(t) (corresponding to the "first error") that is expected to occur between them is added to the right side.

[0082] Specifically, the error e1(t) is caused by assumptions or approximations used in other formulas (Formulas 3 to 7 described later) for creating the estimation model M, and is expressed as P LD and P PV This is the error that occurs in the estimated result.

[0083] The following equation 2 (corresponding to "Equation 2") is the total reactive power Q of the load R. LD and the total reactive power of the solar power generation facility PV, Q PV This is an equation that shows the sum of and.

number

[0084] The total measured reactive power of power system 1 is substituted into Q(t) on the left side. LD and Q in paragraph 3 PV is an unknown quantity and is estimated by the processing of the estimation unit 213, which will be described later.

[0085] In other words, the left side of Equation 2 and the sum of the first and second terms on the right side ideally match. As a result of estimation, an error e2(t) (corresponding to the "second error") that is expected to occur between them is added to the right side.

[0086] Specifically, the error e2(t) is caused by assumptions or approximations used in other formulas (Formulas 3 to 7 described later) for creating the estimation model M, and is expressed as Q LD and Q PV This is the error that occurs in the estimated result.

[0087] The following equation 3 (corresponding to "Equation 3") is the total active power P of the load R. LD and the total reactive power of the load R, Q LD This is an equation that shows the correlation between

number

[0088] Q on the left side LD corresponds to the first term on the right side of Equation 2, and P LD corresponds to the first term on the right side of Equation 1. Equation 3 expresses the total active power P of the load R. LD This is an equation that includes a term (second term on the right-hand side) multiplied by a coefficient c (corresponding to the "first coefficient") that indicates the power factor of the load R.

[0089] The coefficient c is expressed by the following equation, assuming that the power factor of the load R is η.

number

[0090] That is, in this example, the power factor of the load R is assumed to be constant. The error e3(t) (corresponding to the "third error") that is expected to occur in the estimation result by assuming the power factor of the load R to be constant is added to the right side of Equation 3.

[0091] The following formula 5 (corresponding to "formula 4") is the total active power P of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV. PV and the reactive power Q of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV PV This is the equation that shows the correlation with the sum of

number

[0092] Q on the left side PV corresponds to the second term on the right side of Equation 2, and P PV corresponds to the second term on the right side of Equation 1. Equation 5 is the total active power P of the photovoltaic power generation equipment PV. PVThis is an equation that includes a term (second term on the right-hand side) multiplied by a coefficient k (corresponding to the "second coefficient") that indicates the power factor of the solar power generation equipment.

[0093] The coefficient k is expressed by the following equation, assuming that the power factor of the photovoltaic power generation equipment PV is φ.

number

[0094] In other words, in this example, the power factor of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV is assumed to be constant. The error e4(t) (corresponding to the "fourth error") that is expected to occur in the estimation result by assuming the power factor of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV to be constant is added to the right side of Equation 5.

[0095] The following equation 7 (corresponding to "Equation 5") is the solar radiation r(t) and the total active power P of the photovoltaic power generation equipment PV. PV This is an equation showing the correlation between

number

[0096] Equation 7 is an equation that includes a term in which the solar radiation r(t) is multiplied by a coefficient a (corresponding to the "third coefficient"). The total active power of the photovoltaic power generation equipment PV, P PV There is a strong correlation between P and the amount of solar radiation r(t). PV is based on the assumption that increases in proportion to the amount of solar radiation r(t).

[0097] P PV The error e5(t) (corresponding to the "fifth error") that is expected to occur in the estimated result by assuming that increases in proportion to the amount of solar radiation r(t) is added to the right side of Equation 7.

[0098] An estimation model M is created based on the above-described formulas 1 to 7. First, by substituting formula 7 into the second term on the right side of formula 1, the following formula is obtained.

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[0099] In this equation, the third term on the right side is the error expressed by the following equation:

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[0100] Furthermore, when Equation 3 is substituted into the first term on the right side of Equation 2, and Equations 5 and 6 are substituted into the second term on the right side of Equation 2, the following equation is obtained.

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[0101] In this equation, the third term on the right side is the error expressed by the following equation:

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[0102] Next, multiplying both sides of Equation 8 by the coefficient c and then subtracting Equation 10 from both sides gives the following equation:

number

[0103] As can be seen from Equation 12, the total P LD has been eliminated. In addition, in this equation, the second term on the right side of the third equal sign is the error expressed by the following equation.

number

[0104] The error E(t) is an error accumulated in the process of deriving Equation 12, and is an error based on errors e1(t) to e5(t). When Equation 12 is used to solve the error E(t), the following equation is obtained.

number

[0105] The smaller the absolute value of the error E(t), the more preferable it is. The estimation model M of this embodiment is a model that determines the coefficients a, c, and k that make the error E(t) or an amount based on the error E(t) smaller than a predetermined value.

[0106] Details will be described later, but once the coefficient a is determined, the total active power P of the photovoltaic power generation equipment PV is calculated using Equation 6. PV can be estimated.

[0107] <Functional blocks of information processing device 2> 4 is a diagram showing functional blocks of the information processing device 2. The information processing device 2 includes acquisition units 210, 211, and 212, an estimation unit 213, and an output unit 214. Each of these will be described below.

[0108] [Acquisition unit 210] The acquisition unit 210 acquires the measured value r(t) of the amount of solar radiation from the measurement value DB 223. Here, t is time. The acquisition unit 210 acquires the measured value r(t) of the amount of solar radiation for a specific calendar day (the target period for estimation).

[0109] [Acquisition unit 211] The acquisition unit 211 acquires the total P(t) of the measured active power values ​​of a plurality of consumers C including consumers C1, C2, and C3.

[0110] Specifically, the acquisition unit 211 first acquires the measured value p of the active power of each of the multiple consumers C (C1 to C3) from the measured value DB 223. C (t) is obtained. The measured value p of the active power of each of the multiple consumers C (C1 to C3) is obtained. C (t) is based on the measurements of the watt-hour meters SM of each of the multiple consumers C.

[0111] Then, the acquisition unit 211 acquires the active power p C (t) to obtain the total P(t) of the measured active power values ​​of the multiple consumers C (C1 to C3).

[0112] The acquisition unit 211 further acquires the measured values ​​q of the reactive power of each of the multiple consumers C from the measured value DB 223. C As described above, the measured reactive power values ​​q of each of the multiple consumers C are obtained. C (t) is based on the measurements of the watt-hour meters SM of each of the multiple consumers C.

[0113] [Acquisition unit 212] The acquisition unit 212 acquires the estimation model M. Details of the estimation model M have been described above. The estimation model M is a model that minimizes the error E(t) of Equation 14.

[0114] [Estimation section 213] The estimation unit 213 uses the estimation model M to calculate the total active power P of the photovoltaic power generation facilities PV of the consumers C2 and C3. PV and the total active power P of the load R of consumers C1 and C3 LD Estimate.

[0115] Specifically, the estimation unit 213 solves the optimization problem expressed by the following equations to obtain the optimized coefficients a, c, and k, respectively: * , coefficient c * and coefficient k * get.

number

[0116] Here, time t is discretized, and the sum of squares of the error E(t) from a predetermined time (t=1) to a time (t=T) after a predetermined period has elapsed is minimized.

[0117] The sum of squares of the error E(t) shown on the right side of Equation 15 is an example of a "model error."

[0118] After determining the coefficients a, c, and k, the estimation unit 213 calculates the total active power P of the photovoltaic power generation facilities PV of the consumers C2 and C3 (i.e., all the photovoltaic power generation facilities PV included in the power system 1). PVIn this embodiment, the estimation unit 213 estimates the active power P of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV by substituting the coefficient a into the following equation: PV Estimate.

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[0119] Equation 16 is an equation obtained by removing the error e5(t) from the right-hand side of Equation 7. As a result of optimizing Equation 15, it is expected that the error e5(t) can be suppressed to a sufficiently small value, so the error e5(t) is removed from Equation 16.

[0120] The estimation unit 213 uses a predetermined constraint condition according to the amount of solar radiation r(t) for the coefficient a to calculate the total active power P of the photovoltaic power generation equipment PV. PV (t) may be estimated. For example, the total P PV To ensure that the estimated value of is a realistic value, upper and lower bounds may be placed on the coefficient a.

[0121] Next, the estimation unit 213 calculates the total active power P of the loads R of the consumers C1 and C3 (i.e., all the loads R included in the power system 1). LD In this embodiment, the estimation unit 213 estimates the estimated total P PV By substituting into the following equation, the total active power of the load R is P LD Estimate.

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[0122] Equation 17 is an equation obtained by removing the error e1(t) from the right-hand side of Equation 1. As a result of optimizing Equation 15, it is expected that the error e1(t) can be suppressed to a sufficiently small value, so the error e1(t) is removed from Equation 17.

[0123] The estimation unit 213 further calculates the total reactive power Q of the load R by the same process as above. LD and the total reactive power of the photovoltaic power generation equipment PV, Q PV may be estimated.

[0124] [Output section 214] The output unit 214 outputs the total active power P of the load R estimated by the estimation unit 213. LD and the total active power of the photovoltaic power generation equipment PV, P PV is output to an output device 205 such as a display to be presented to the user.

[0125] <<Processing up to outputting the total active power>> The process up to when the information processing device 2 outputs the total active power will be described using a flowchart. Fig. 5 is a flowchart illustrating the process up to when the information processing device 2 outputs the total active power. This process includes steps S100 to S107.

[0126] First, in step S11, the acquisition unit 210 acquires a measured value of the amount of solar radiation r(t) on the target day of estimation.

[0127] Next, in step S12, the acquisition unit 211 acquires the sum P(t) of the measured values ​​of the active power of the power system 1.

[0128] Next, in step S13, the acquisition unit 211 acquires the sum Q(t) of the measured values ​​of reactive power in the power system 1.

[0129] Next, in step S14, the acquisition unit 212 acquires the estimated model M from the model information DB 222 (FIG. 3). The estimated model M is a model expressed by Equation 14.

[0130] Next, in step S15, the estimation unit 213 calculates the total active power P of the load R of the power system 1. LD (t) and the total active power of the solar power generation facility PV P PV Estimate (t).

[0131] In this step, the estimation unit 213 calculates the total P LD (t) and total P PV Estimate (t).

[0132] Finally, in step 16, the output 214 outputs the estimated sum P LD (t) and total P PV (t) is output to an output device 205 such as a display.

[0133] ==Summary== As described above, the information processing device 2 of the embodiment calculates the total active power P of the photovoltaic power generation facilities PV of the power system 1 to which a plurality of consumers C are connected, including a consumer C1 having a load R, a consumer C2 having a photovoltaic power generation facility PV, and a consumer C3 having a load R and a photovoltaic power generation facility PV. PV The information processing device 2 estimates the total active power P of the load R. LD and the total active power of the solar power generation equipment PV, P PV and the total reactive power Q of the load R. LD and the total reactive power of the solar power generation facility PV, Q PV and the total active power of the load R, P LD and the total reactive power of the load R, Q LD Equation 3 shows the correlation between the total active power of the photovoltaic power generation system PV and the total active power P PV and the total reactive power of the solar power generation facility PV, Q PV Equation 5 shows the correlation between the solar radiation r(t) and the total active power of the solar power generation facility PV, P PV and an acquisition unit 210 that acquires an estimation model M created based on Equation 7, which shows the correlation between the above and the total active power P of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV, using the estimation model M. PV and an estimation unit 213 that estimates

[0134] According to this configuration, by using various measured values ​​and five formulas, the total active power P of the photovoltaic power generation equipment PV can be calculated. PV Therefore, the total active power of the photovoltaic power generation system PV, P, can be estimated using the measured value of solar radiation r(t). PV It becomes possible to easily estimate

[0135] In the information processing device 2, the formula 3 is the total active power P of the load R. LD This is an equation that includes a term multiplied by a coefficient c that indicates the power factor of the load, and Equation 5 is the total active power P of the photovoltaic power generation equipment PV PV is an equation including a term obtained by multiplying the amount of solar radiation r(t) by a coefficient k indicating the power factor of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV, and Equation 7 is an equation including a term obtained by multiplying the amount of solar radiation r(t) by a coefficient a, and the estimation unit 213 calculates the effective power P of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV after determining the coefficients c, k, and a that make the model error of the estimation model M smaller than a predetermined value. PV According to this configuration, the formulas 3, 5, and 7 are simplified. Therefore, the total active power P of the photovoltaic power generation equipment PV is estimated using the measured value of the solar radiation r(t). PV can be more easily estimated.

[0136] In the information processing device 2, Formulas 1 to 3, Formula 5, and Formula 7 each include errors e1 to e5, and the model error is an error based on the errors e1 to e5. With this configuration, the five types of errors e1 to e5 can be combined into one model error, and it is not necessary to handle the errors e1 to e5 individually. Therefore, the total active power P of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV can be calculated using the measured value of the solar radiation r(t). PV can be more easily estimated.

[0137] In the information processing device 2, the estimation unit 213 calculates the total active power P of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV using a predetermined constraint condition according to the amount of solar radiation r(t) for the coefficient a. PV According to this configuration, the total active power of the estimated photovoltaic power generation equipment PV, P PV The accuracy of the

[0138] In the information processing device 2, the estimation unit 213 calculates the total active power P of the load R using the estimation model M. LD According to this configuration, when a consumer such as consumer C3 has a load R and a photovoltaic power generation facility PV, the total active power P of the load R in the power system 1 is further estimated. LD and the total active power of the solar power generation facility P PVcan be separated and estimated.

[0139] In the information processing method of the embodiment, an information processing device 2 calculates a total P of active power of photovoltaic power generation facilities PV of a power system 1 to which a plurality of consumers C are connected, the consumer C1 having a load R, a consumer C2 having a photovoltaic power generation facility PV, and a consumer C3 having a load R and a photovoltaic power generation facility PV. PV An information processing method for estimating the total active power P of the load R LD and the total active power of the solar power generation equipment PV, P PV and the total reactive power Q of the load R. LD and the total reactive power of the solar power generation facility PV, Q PV and the total active power of the load R, P LD and the total reactive power of the load R, Q LD Equation 3 shows the correlation between the total active power of the photovoltaic power generation system PV and the total active power P PV and the total reactive power of the solar power generation facility PV, Q PV Equation 5 shows the correlation between the solar radiation r(t) and the total active power of the solar power generation facility PV, P PV and a step of obtaining an estimation model M created based on Equation 7, which shows the correlation between the total active power P of the photovoltaic power generation equipment PV using the estimation model M. PV and estimating

[0140] According to this method, by using various measurements and five formulas, the total active power of the photovoltaic power generation equipment PV, P PV Therefore, the total active power of the photovoltaic power generation system PV, P, can be estimated using the measured value of solar radiation r(t). PV It becomes possible to easily estimate

[0141] The information processing program of the embodiment calculates a total P of active power of photovoltaic power generation facilities PV of a power system 1 to which a plurality of consumers C are connected, including a consumer C1 having a load R, a consumer C2 having a photovoltaic power generation facility PV, and a consumer C3 having a load R and a photovoltaic power generation facility PV. PVThe information processing program is configured to estimate a total active power P of the photovoltaic power generation equipment PV of a power system 1 to which a plurality of consumers C are connected, including a consumer C1 having a load R, a consumer C2 having a photovoltaic power generation equipment PV, and a consumer C3 having a load R and a photovoltaic power generation equipment PV. PV The information processing program estimates the total active power P of the load R. LD and the total active power of the solar power generation equipment PV, P PV and the total reactive power Q of the load R. LD and the total reactive power of the solar power generation facility PV, Q PV and the total active power of the load R, P LD and the total reactive power of the load R, Q LD Equation 3 shows the correlation between the total active power of the photovoltaic power generation system PV and the total active power P PV and the total reactive power of the solar power generation facility PV, Q PV Equation 5 shows the correlation between the solar radiation r(t) and the total active power of the solar power generation facility PV, P PV and an acquisition unit 210 that acquires an estimation model M created based on Equation 7, which shows the correlation between the above and the total active power P of the photovoltaic power generation facility PV, using the estimation model M. PV and an estimation unit 213 that estimates

[0142] According to this program, by using various measurements and five formulas, the total active power of the photovoltaic power generation equipment PV, P PV Therefore, the total active power of the photovoltaic power generation system PV, P, can be estimated using the measured value of solar radiation r(t). PV It becomes possible to easily estimate [Explanation of symbols]

[0143] power system 1 Distribution Substation 10 Power Lines 11 High-voltage power receiving equipment 12 Drop line 13 Information processing device 2 CPU 200 Memory 201 Communication Device 202 Storage device 203 Input Device 204 Output Device 205 Recording medium reader 206 Lineage information DB 220 Equipment information DB 221 Model Information DB 222 Measurement DB 223 Estimated Value DB 224 Acquisition Department 210 Acquisition Department 211 Acquisition Department 212 Estimation part 213 Output section 214 Sensor-equipped switches SW1, SW2 Recording medium 4 Communication Network 5

Claims

1. An information processing device that estimates a total active power of photovoltaic power generation facilities in a power system to which a plurality of consumers are connected, the consumer including a first consumer having a load, a second consumer having photovoltaic power generation facilities, and a third consumer having the load and the photovoltaic power generation facilities, A first equation indicating the sum of the active power of the load and the active power of the solar power generation facility; A second equation indicating the sum of the reactive power of the load and the reactive power of the solar power generation facility; a third equation showing the correlation between the total active power of the load and the total reactive power of the load; A fourth equation showing a correlation between the total active power of the solar power generation facility and the total reactive power of the solar power generation facility; A fifth equation showing the correlation between the amount of solar radiation and the total active power of the solar power generation facility; an acquisition unit that acquires a model created based on the an estimation unit that estimates a total active power of the photovoltaic power generation facility using the model, Information processing device.

2. 2. The information processing device according to claim 1, The third equation is an equation including a term obtained by multiplying the total active power of the load by a first coefficient indicating the power factor of the load, The fourth equation is an equation including a term obtained by multiplying the total active power of the solar power generation facility by a second coefficient indicating the power factor of the solar power generation facility, The fifth equation is an equation including a term obtained by multiplying the amount of solar radiation by a third coefficient, the estimation unit estimates the active power of the photovoltaic power generation facility after determining the first to third coefficients that make the model error of the model smaller than a predetermined value; Information processing device.

3. 3. The information processing device according to claim 2, The first to fifth equations include first to fifth errors, respectively. The model error is an error based on the first to fifth errors. Information processing device.

4. 3. The information processing device according to claim 2, the estimation unit estimates the active power of the photovoltaic power generation facility by using a predetermined constraint condition according to the amount of solar radiation for the third coefficient. Information processing device.

5. The information processing device according to any one of claims 1 to 4, The estimation unit further estimating a total active power of the load using the model; Information processing device.

6. The information processing device An information processing method for estimating a total active power of photovoltaic power generation facilities in a power system to which a plurality of consumers are connected, the consumer including a first consumer having a load, a second consumer having a photovoltaic power generation facility, and a third consumer having the load and the photovoltaic power generation facility, A first equation indicating the sum of the active power of the load and the active power of the solar power generation facility; A second equation indicating the sum of the reactive power of the load and the reactive power of the solar power generation facility; a third equation showing the correlation between the total active power of the load and the total reactive power of the load; A fourth equation showing a correlation between the total active power of the solar power generation facility and the total reactive power of the solar power generation facility; A fifth equation showing the correlation between the amount of solar radiation and the total active power of the solar power generation facility; obtaining a model based on and estimating a total active power of the solar power plant using the model. Information processing methods.

7. An information processing program for estimating a total active power of photovoltaic power generation facilities in a power system to which a plurality of consumers are connected, the consumer including a first consumer having a load, a second consumer having a photovoltaic power generation facility, and a third consumer having the load and the photovoltaic power generation facility, On the computer, A first equation indicating the sum of the active power of the load and the active power of the solar power generation facility; A second equation indicating the sum of the reactive power of the load and the reactive power of the solar power generation facility; a third equation showing the correlation between the total active power of the load and the total reactive power of the load; A fourth equation showing a correlation between the total active power of the solar power generation facility and the total reactive power of the solar power generation facility; A fifth equation showing the correlation between the amount of solar radiation and the total active power of the solar power generation facility; an acquisition unit that acquires a model created based on the an estimation unit that estimates the total active power of the photovoltaic power generation facility using the model; Information processing program.

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