Distributed power generation estimation system, power generation estimation method, and power generation estimation program

Abstract

To appropriately estimate the amount of power generated by each distributed power source with a simple configuration.SOLUTION: For a pilot instrument 2 that stores power generation information including power generation capacity and installation position of each solar power generation device, uses a mega solar GM as a pilot distributed power source, and acquires the power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source, and a small-scale solar GS installed in the surrounding area of the pilot distributed power source and having the same power generation tendency, the amount of power generated by the small-scale solar GS is estimated on the basis of power information of the small-scale solar GS and the power information and power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a power generation amount estimation system, a power generation amount estimation method, and a power generation amount estimation program for estimating the amount of power generated by a distributed power source such as a solar power generation device or a wind power generation device. [Background technology]

[0002] In power supply, it is necessary to grasp and estimate the actual load in order to maintain the voltage of the power distribution system appropriately and to restore and operate the system appropriately in the event of an accident. This actual load includes not only the amount of power supplied to consumers from the power distribution system, but also the amount of power generated by distributed power sources and consumed by consumers, so it is necessary to estimate the actual load by estimating the amount of power generated by distributed power sources. Conventionally, for example, the amount of power generated by distributed power sources installed at each consumer's facility was estimated, and the actual load was estimated based on this assumption that the distributed power sources generate ideal and good power.

[0003] However, power generation from distributed power sources is actually influenced by weather and surrounding environment, and is not always ideal or good, so the amount of power generated fluctuates. For this reason, it has been difficult to accurately estimate the amount of power generated and the actual load.

[0004] Meanwhile, a maximum power generation estimation method is known that can estimate the maximum power generation of a photovoltaic power generation system from easily available data (see, for example, Patent Document 1). This estimation method calculates the maximum solar radiation amount within a predetermined period to be predicted, and estimates the maximum power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation system that can be added to the system current of the power distribution system based on this solar radiation amount, the installed capacity of the photovoltaic power generation system, and a predetermined coefficient. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0005] [Patent Document 1] JP 2010-193594 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0006] In recent years, the number of cases where distributed power sources are installed at consumers has been increasing, and in the maximum power generation estimation method described in Patent Document 1, the maximum solar radiation amount for each of the large number of distributed power sources must be calculated and predicted, and the maximum power generation amount must be estimated based on the solar radiation amount and the facility capacity, which makes the processing and calculations complicated. Moreover, it is difficult to always accurately calculate and predict the maximum solar radiation amount, and an error in the prediction of the maximum solar radiation amount causes a large error in the estimation of the power generation amount in the entire system.

[0007] If the amount of power generated by each distributed power source cannot be accurately estimated, the actual load on the entire system cannot be accurately estimated, which makes it difficult to maintain an appropriate voltage in the power distribution system when a large number of distributed power sources are connected to the system.

[0008] SUMMARY OF THE PRESENT DISCLOSURE An object of the present invention is to provide a system, method, and program for estimating power generation amount of distributed power sources that can appropriately estimate the power generation amount of each distributed power source with a simple configuration. [Means for solving the problem]

[0009] In order to solve the above problems, the present invention provides a power supply information storage means for storing power supply information including the power generation capacity and installation location of each distributed power source; The generating capacity is orders of magnitude larger than other distributed power sources. This system for estimating a power generation amount of a distributed power source is characterized in that it comprises: a pilot power generation acquisition means for acquiring the power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source, which is a distributed power source; and a power generation amount estimation means for estimating the power generation amount of a distributed power source installed in the surrounding area of ​​the pilot distributed power source and having a similar power generation tendency, based on power supply information of the distributed power source and power supply information and power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source.

[0010] According to this invention, when the power generation amount of a pilot distributed power source is acquired by the pilot power generation amount acquisition means, the power generation amount of a distributed power source installed in the surrounding area of ​​the pilot distributed power source and having a similar power generation tendency is estimated by the power generation amount estimation means based on the power supply information of the distributed power source and the power supply information and power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source.

[0011] The invention of claim 2 is characterized in that, in the distributed power generation estimation system described in claim 1, the power generation estimation means calculates a power generation rate based on the power generation capacity and power generation of the pilot distributed power generation, and estimates the power generation amount based on the power generation rate and the power generation capacity of the distributed power generation.

[0013] Claim 3 The invention of claim 1 OR 2 In the distributed power generation estimation system described in the above, the power source information includes information that affects the power generation amount of the distributed power source as power generation impact information, and the power generation amount estimation means estimates the power generation amount based on the power generation impact information.

[0014] Claim 4 The present invention includes a power source information storage step of storing power source information including a power generation capacity and an installation location of each distributed power source; The generating capacity is orders of magnitude larger than other distributed power sources. This method for estimating the power generation amount of a distributed power source comprises: a pilot power generation acquisition step of acquiring the power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source, which is a distributed power source; and a power generation amount estimation step of estimating the power generation amount of a distributed power source that is installed in the surrounding area of ​​the pilot distributed power source and has a similar power generation tendency, based on power supply information of the distributed power source and power supply information and power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source.

[0015] Claim 5 The invention relates to a computer, a power source information storage means for storing power source information including a generating capacity and an installation location of each distributed power source, The generating capacity is orders of magnitude larger than other distributed power sources.This is a distributed power generation estimation program that functions as a power generation estimation means for estimating the power generation amount of a distributed power source that is installed in the surrounding area of ​​the pilot distributed power source and has a similar power generation tendency, based on the power generation information of the distributed power source and the power generation information and power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source. Effect of the Invention

[0016] Claim 1, Claim 4 and claims 5 According to the invention described in the above, for a distributed power source installed in the vicinity of a pilot distributed power source and having a similar power generation tendency, the power generation amount is estimated based on the power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source, etc. In other words, for a distributed power source whose power generation amount is considered to fluctuate in the same manner (similarly) as the power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source, the power generation amount is estimated based on the power generation capacity of the distributed power source, the power generation capacity of the pilot distributed power source, and the actual power generation amount, etc. For example, when the power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source is high, the power generation amount of the distributed power source to be estimated is also high, and when the power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source is low, the power generation amount of the distributed power source to be estimated is also low, and thus the power generation amount of the distributed power source to be estimated is estimated.

[0017] This makes it possible to properly estimate the power generation amount for distributed power sources that have the same or similar power generation tendency (power generation behavior, power generation fluctuation) as the pilot distributed power source. By grouping multiple distributed power sources with the same power generation tendency and acquiring the power generation amount of the pilot distributed power sources in each group, it becomes possible to properly estimate the power generation amount of each distributed power source over a wide area. As a result of being able to properly estimate the power generation amount of each distributed power source in this way, it becomes possible to properly estimate the actual load in the entire system, and to properly maintain the voltage of the power distribution system when a large number of distributed power sources are interconnected.

[0018] In addition, the actual power generation amount only needs to be obtained for the pilot distributed power source, and the power generation amount can be estimated using only the power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source and the power supply information of each distributed power source, making it possible to estimate the amount with a simple configuration.

[0019] According to the invention described in claim 2, the power generation rate is calculated based on the power generation capacity and power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source, and the power generation amount is estimated based on this power generation rate and the power generation capacity of the distributed power source, so it becomes possible to estimate the power generation amount more accurately and simply. In other words, a distributed power source that has the same power generation tendency as the pilot distributed power source is considered to have the same power generation rate as the pilot distributed power source, so by multiplying the power generation capacity of this distributed power source by the power generation rate of the pilot distributed power source, it becomes possible to estimate the power generation amount more accurately and simply.

[0020] Also, claims 1, 4 and 5 According to the invention described in the above, a distributed power source with a power generation capacity incomparably larger than other distributed power sources is set as a pilot distributed power source, so that the amount of power generation can be estimated more accurately. In other words, by setting a large-scale distributed power source with a large power generation capacity as a pilot distributed power source and acquiring the amount of power generation from this pilot distributed power source, it becomes possible to more accurately acquire and grasp the power generation tendency (power generation rate, etc.) of the pilot distributed power source, and as a result, it becomes possible to more accurately estimate the amount of power generation from the distributed power source being estimated.

[0021] Claim 3 According to the invention described in the above, since the amount of power generation is estimated based on the power generation influence information that affects the amount of power generation of the distributed power source, it is possible to estimate the amount of power generation more accurately. In other words, since the amount of power generation is estimated based on factors that affect the amount of power generation, such as the degree of degradation of the distributed power source and the surrounding environment, it is possible to estimate the amount of power generation more accurately. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0022] [Figure 1] 1 is a schematic configuration diagram showing a power generation amount estimation system for a distributed power source according to an embodiment of the present invention; [Diagram 2]2 is a schematic block diagram showing an estimation computer of the power generation amount estimation system of FIG. 1. [Diagram 3] 3 is a data configuration diagram of a power supply information database of the estimation computer of FIG. 2. [Figure 4] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of division of a power distribution system diagram in the power generation amount estimation system of FIG. 1. [Diagram 5] 3 is a flowchart of an estimation task of the estimation computer of FIG. 2. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0023] Hereinafter, the present invention will be described based on the illustrated embodiment.

[0024] 1 to 5 show an embodiment of the present invention, and Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram showing a power generation amount estimation system for a distributed power source according to this embodiment (hereinafter, appropriately referred to as a "power generation amount estimation system") 1. This power generation amount estimation system 1 is a system for estimating the amount of power generated by a distributed power source such as a solar power generation device or a wind power generation device, and is mainly configured by a plurality of pilot instruments (pilot power generation amount acquisition means) 2 and an estimation computer 3, which are connected to each other so as to be able to communicate freely via a communication network NW.

[0025] Here, in this embodiment, the case where the distributed power source is a solar power generation device will be mainly described, and each solar power generation device is connected to the power distribution system of the power company. In addition, a small-scale solar power generation device (hereinafter, referred to as "small-scale solar") G with a power generation capacity and rated capacity of less than 10 kW will be described. S Compared to these, there are large-scale solar power generation facilities (hereinafter referred to as "mega solar") with a power generation capacity of 1MW or more, which is orders of magnitude larger (for example, 10 times larger). M and Mega Solar G M This article mainly explains the case of using this as a pilot distributed power source. S are installed at consumers who receive electricity from the power distribution system, and are M is to be installed on a large site.

[0026] Pilot instrument 2 is for each mega solar G M Mega Solar G M This is an instrument that measures and acquires the actual amount of power generated by the Mega Solar G at a specified measurement interval (for example, every 15 minutes). M The voltage and current output from the power generation unit 1 are measured, and the amount of power generation is calculated and measured according to a predetermined calculation formula. The measured amount of power generation is then sequentially transmitted to the estimation computer 3 in real time.

[0027] In this embodiment, each mega solar G M However, if all the generated power is transmitted to the power company, the amount of transmitted power, i.e. the amount of generated power, may be measured on the power company side / power distribution system side. M A measuring instrument for accurately measuring the amount of power generated is provided in the pilot meter 2, and such a measuring instrument may be used as the pilot meter 2. Alternatively, a switch with a measuring function (a switch that is installed in a distribution line and has a function for measuring the voltage and current of high-voltage power lines) may be used.

[0028] The estimation computer 3 is installed in the facilities of an electric power company and is a computer for estimating the power generation amount of all solar power generation devices and further the actual load in the entire distribution system, and as shown in Figure 2, mainly comprises a communication unit 31, an input unit 32, a display unit 33, a power source information database (power source information storage means) 34, an estimation task (power generation amount estimation means) 35, and a central processing unit 36 ​​that controls these.

[0029] The communication unit 31 is an interface for communicating with each pilot instrument 2, etc. The input unit 32 is an interface for inputting various information and commands from the outside, for example, specifying the size and range of each district, which will be described later. The display unit 33 is a display for displaying various information, for example, displaying a power distribution system diagram, estimation results, etc., which will be described later.

[0030] The power source information database 34 is a database that stores power source information including the power generation capacity and installation location of each solar power generation device, and as shown in Figure 3, for each power source ID 341, i.e., for each solar power generation device, capacity 342, location 343, consumer information 344, pilot 345, group 346, impact information 347, and power generation amount 348 are stored.

[0031] The power supply ID 341 stores identification information of the solar power generation device. M In the case of Mega Solar G M In the capacity 342, the power generation capacity and rated capacity of the photovoltaic power generation device, that is, the amount of power generated when the power generation rate is 100%, is stored. In this case, since a power conditioner (PCS) is actually provided, when the capacity of the power conditioner is smaller than the power generation capacity of the solar panel, the capacity of the power conditioner is stored as the power generation capacity. In other words, the amount of power generated when the power generation rate is 100% for the photovoltaic power generation system including the power conditioner is stored. In the position 343, the latitude and longitude of the installation position of the photovoltaic power generation device are stored, and in the customer information 344, information on the customer who owns and operates the photovoltaic power generation device, such as the customer's name and contact information, is stored.

[0032] The Pilot 345 has this solar power generation device as a small-scale solar G S In this case, the standard for estimating the amount of power generated is the mega solar G M The identification information of the solar power generation device is stored in the area 340, and the identification information of the area in which the solar power generation device is installed is stored in the area 346. That is, in this embodiment, as shown in FIG. 4, the power distribution system diagram is divided into a mesh-like or net-like shape at a predetermined interval, and is divided into a plurality of areas R1 to R12, etc. And, at least the power generation tendency of all the solar power generation devices installed in the same area is made equal. In other words, the size and scope of each area (mesh interval) can be changed, and the size and scope of each area are set so that at least the power generation tendency of all the solar power generation devices installed in the same area is made equal.

[0033] Here, the power generation tendency being equivalent means that the power generation amount fluctuates similarly and the power generation behavior and power generation fluctuation are similar, and when the power generation amount and power generation rate of one solar power generation device are high, the power generation amount and power generation rate of other solar power generation devices are also high, and when the power generation amount and power generation rate of one solar power generation device are low, the power generation amount and power generation rate of other solar power generation devices are also low. For example, if the weather is sunny in area R2, the power generation amount and power generation rate of all solar power generation devices in area R2 will be high, if area R7 is sunny with occasional clouds, the power generation amount and power generation rate of all solar power generation devices in area R7 will be medium, and if the weather is rainy in area R11, the power generation amount and power generation rate of all solar power generation devices in area R11 will be low (zero).

[0034] In addition, the power generation trends of solar power generation equipment may be similar even in different areas. M In some areas, there are no mega solar power plants installed, or there are multiple mega solar power plants in the same area. M For example, mega solar power plants may be installed in M Small-scale solar power plants installed in areas where solar panels are not installed S In contrast, mega solar power plants installed in areas with similar power generation trends M The identification information of the mega solar G is stored in the pilot 345. M The district in this area is not necessarily the same as the district remembered in District 346.

[0035] For example, a small solar group with District 1 stored in District 346 S In contrast, the mega solar power plant G installed in the surrounding area, District 2 M The identification information of the mega solar power plant G is stored in the pilot 345. M Small-scale solar power plants installed in areas where solar panels are not installed S In addition, the surrounding area's mega solar power plants M Based on the amount of power generated, it is possible to estimate the amount of power generated as described below.

[0036] In contrast, Mega Solar G M Small-scale solar power plants in areas where S In response to this, Mega Solar G M The identification information is stored in the pilot 345. In addition, if multiple mega solar Gs are installed in the same area, M In the case where a mega solar power plant is installed, the power generation tendency is closer to that of the mega solar power plant G. M The identification information of the pilot 345 is stored.

[0037] In the influence information 347, information that affects the amount of power generated by this photovoltaic power generation device is stored as power generation influence information. For example, if the photovoltaic power generation device is deteriorated or if there is a time period when sunlight is blocked by the surrounding environment such as a building, that fact is stored, and further, how much (for example, by how many percent) the amount of power generation and power generation rate will decrease as a result of these factors is stored. In the power generation amount 348, M In this case, the actual power generation amount received from the pilot instrument 2 is stored, and the small-scale solar G S In this case, the power generation amount estimated in an estimation task 35 described later is stored. Note that, unlike the power source ID 341 to the impact information 347, this power generation amount 348 is not power source information and may be stored in a separate database.

[0038] Estimated Task 35 is Mega Solar G M Small-scale solar power plants installed in the surrounding area with similar power generation trends S In contrast, this small-scale solar G S Power supply information and Mega Solar G M Based on the power supply information and actual power generation, this small-scale solar G S This is a task program that estimates the amount of power generated by each mega solar power plant. It is started periodically or at any time. In this embodiment, M Based on the amount of power generated by each solar power plant, multiple small-scale solar power plants in a wide-area distribution grid can be S In contrast, the estimation standard for mega solar G M and small-scale solar G SSpecify a specific small-scale solar G S may be estimated only for

[0039] Specifically, as shown in Figure 5, the first mega solar G M The power supply information and actual power generation amount of this mega solar power plant are obtained from the power supply information database 34 (step S1). M The power generation rate of this mega solar power plant is calculated (step S2). M The power generation rate is calculated by dividing the power generation amount (power generation amount 348) by the power generation capacity (capacity 342). At this time, the power generation rate is calculated for each measured power generation amount (for each measurement cycle).

[0040] Next, this Mega Solar G M The first small-scale solar G with comparable power generation trends installed in the surrounding area of S The power supply information of this mega solar power plant is obtained from the power supply information database 34 (step S3). M The first small-scale solar G, with Pilot 345's identification information stored in it. S The power supply information is obtained from the power supply information database 34.

[0041] Next, this small-scale solar G S Based on the power supply information and the power generation rate calculated in step S2, this small-scale solar G S The amount of power generated by this small-scale solar G is estimated (step S4). S The power generation capacity of the small-scale solar power plant is multiplied by the power generation rate in step S2, and the amount of power generation is estimated according to a predetermined calculation formula, taking into account the power factor and other factors. At this time, the amount of power generation is estimated for each calculated power generation rate (for each measurement period). S The amount of power generation is estimated based on the power generation influence information (impact information 347) in step S1. For example, if the influence information 347 stores that the amount of power generation and the power generation rate will decrease by 20% during a time period when sunlight is blocked by the surrounding environment, the amount of power generation during this time period is estimated by subtracting 20% ​​from the amount of power generation based on the power generation rate in step S2.

[0042] In this embodiment, the extent to which the power generation amount and power generation rate will decrease is set and stored in advance in the impact information 347, but it may be set in step S4 based on the deterioration state stored in the impact information 347. The power generation amount estimated in this way for each predetermined time (each measurement cycle) is stored in the power generation amount 348.

[0043] Next, the same Mega Solar G M The following small-scale solar G, which are installed in the surrounding area and have similar power generation trends, S If there is such a power source (if "Y" in step S5), the power source information is obtained from the power source information database 34 (step S6). M The following small-scale solar G S The power supply information of this small-scale solar G is obtained from the power supply information database 34. S The amount of power generation is estimated and stored in the same manner as described above (step S4).

[0044] In this way, this Mega Solar G M All small-scale solar G that are installed in the surrounding area and have the same power generation tendency S When the estimation of the power generation amount for the mega solar power plant G is completed (if the answer is "N" in step S5), the next mega solar power plant G that will be the estimation standard is M Then, the next mega solar G M If there is such a power source (if "Y" in step S7), the power source information and the actual amount of power generated are obtained from the power source information database 34 (step S8). Next, returning to step S2, the same procedure as above is performed for this mega solar G M The power generation rate of all small-scale solar G that have been installed in the surrounding area and have similar power generation trends is calculated. S In this way, the amount of power generated is estimated for all mega solar G M Based on the actual power generation of each small-scale solar G in each surrounding area S If the power generation amount estimation is completed ("N" in step S7), the process ends.

[0045] Next, the operation of the power generation amount estimation system 1 configured as above and a method for estimating the amount of power generation of a distributed power source by the power generation amount estimation system 1 will be described.

[0046] First, the power source information of each solar power generation device is stored in the power source information database 34 (power source information storage step), and each pilot instrument 2 is M When the actual power generation amount of each mega solar power plant is measured, the power generation amount value is sequentially transmitted in real time to the estimation computer 3 (pilot power generation amount acquisition step). Next, when the estimation task 35 is started periodically or at an arbitrary time, M Small-scale solar power plants installed in the surrounding area with similar power generation trends S The amount of power generated is estimated for each of the power generation units (power generation amount estimation step).

[0047] As described above, according to the power generation estimation system 1 and the power generation estimation method, M Small-scale solar power plants installed in the surrounding area with similar power generation trends S On the other hand, Mega Solar G M The amount of power generated is estimated based on the amount of power generated by the mega solar power plant. M Small-scale solar G, whose power generation is thought to fluctuate in the same way as that of S In contrast, this small-scale solar G S Power generation capacity and mega solar G M The amount of power generated is estimated based on the power generation capacity and actual power generation amount of the mega solar power plant. M If the amount of power generated by the small-scale solar power plant is high, the estimated S The amount of electricity generated by Mega Solar G is also high. M If the amount of power generated by the small-scale solar power plant is low, the estimated S The amount of power generated by the estimated small-scale solar G S The amount of electricity generated is estimated to be

[0048] For this reason, Mega Solar G M Small-scale solar G with the same or similar power generation trends (power generation behavior, power generation fluctuations) as SIt is then possible to accurately estimate the amount of power generated by a group of solar power generation equipment with similar power generation tendencies. M By acquiring the amount of power generated by each small-scale solar group over a wide area, S In this way, it is possible to accurately estimate the amount of power generated by each small-scale solar group. S As a result of being able to accurately estimate the amount of power generated, it becomes possible to accurately estimate the actual load in the entire system, and to appropriately maintain the voltage of the distribution system when a large number of photovoltaic power generation devices are connected to the system.

[0049] The actual amount of electricity generated is also M It is only necessary to measure and obtain the amount of electricity required for Mega Solar G M The amount of electricity generated by each small-scale solar group S Since the amount of power generation is estimated using only the power source information, it is possible to estimate the amount of power generation with a simple configuration.

[0050] In addition, Mega Solar G M The power generation rate is calculated based on the power generation capacity and power generation amount of the small-scale solar G. S Since the amount of power generated is estimated based on the power generation capacity of the mega solar power plant, it is possible to estimate the amount of power generated more accurately and simply. M Small-scale solar G, which has the same power generation tendency as S The power generation rate is Mega Solar G M Therefore, this small-scale solar G S The power generation capacity of Mega Solar G M By multiplying the power generation rate by the power generation rate, it is possible to estimate the power generation amount more accurately and simply.

[0051] In addition, small-scale solar G S Mega Solar G has an incomparably larger power generation capacity than M In other words, it is possible to estimate the amount of power generated more accurately by using the large-scale mega solar G with a large power generation capacity as a pilot distributed power source. M This mega solar G MBy measuring and acquiring the amount of power generated by the mega solar power plant, M This makes it possible to obtain and grasp the power generation trends (power generation rate, etc.) of the small-scale solar G S This makes it possible to more accurately estimate the amount of power generated.

[0052] In addition, small-scale solar G S Since the amount of power generation is estimated based on the information on the power generation impact that affects the amount of power generation, it is possible to estimate the amount of power generation more accurately. S Since the amount of power generation is estimated based on factors that affect the amount of power generation, such as the degree of deterioration of the solar panel and the surrounding environment, it is possible to estimate the amount of power generation more accurately.

[0053] Although the embodiment of the present invention has been described above, the specific configuration is not limited to the above embodiment, and even if there are design changes within the scope of the present invention, the present invention is included. For example, in the above embodiment, the case where the distributed power source is a solar power generation device has been described, but the distributed power source may be a wind power generation device or the like. For example, in the case of a wind power generation device, the power generation amount is estimated based on the power generation amount of a pilot wind power generation device for a wind power generation device that has the same wind speed and wind direction and the same power generation tendency. In addition, although the case where a large-scale solar power generation device is used as the pilot distributed power source has been described, a small-scale or medium-scale solar power generation device may be used as the pilot distributed power source if the actual power generation amount can be obtained.

[0054] Furthermore, in the above embodiment, the mega solar G, which is the standard for estimating the amount of power generation, M The identification information is set and stored in advance in the pilot 345, but may be set automatically and sequentially in the estimation task 35, etc. For example, when the estimation task 35 is started, areas that are considered to have similar sunshine conditions and similar power generation tendencies are grouped together based on past and recent weather information, etc. Then, for example, areas R1 and R2 are grouped together, and a mega solar power plant G is placed in area R2. MIf the mega solar power plant in the R2 district is installed, M When estimating the amount of power generated based on the above, the small-scale solar G in districts R1 and R2 S is the subject of estimation.

[0055] In addition, there are multiple mega solar power plants in the same area. M When a mega solar power plant is installed, M Based on the actual power generation of other mega solar G M and each small-scale solar group S Furthermore, the amount of power generated by each small-scale solar group may be estimated. S The amount of electricity generated by each of the small-scale solar power plants is estimated. S For example, the total electricity generated by each small-scale solar group installed in the same area may be estimated together. S The total power generation amount may be estimated by accumulating the power generation capacities of the above-mentioned units and multiplying this total power generation capacity by the power generation rate, for example.

[0056] The estimation computer 3 may be configured as described above by installing the following power generation estimation program in a general-purpose computer. That is, the computer is configured to include a power source information database 34 that stores power source information including the power generation capacity and installation location of each photovoltaic power generation device, and a mega solar G M The pilot distributed power source is set as the pilot distributed power source, and small-scale solar power plants G that are installed in the surrounding area of ​​the pilot distributed power source and have the same power generation tendency are set as the pilot distributed power source. S For the small-scale solar G S Based on the power supply information of the small-scale solar G S A power generation amount estimation program for estimating a power generation amount of a distributed power source, the program causing the distributed power source to function as a power generation amount estimation means for estimating a power generation amount of the distributed power source. [Explanation of symbols]

[0057] 1. Power generation estimation system 2 Pilot instrument (means for acquiring pilot power generation amount) 3. Estimation Computer 34 Power supply information database (power supply information storage means) 35 Estimation task (power generation estimation means) G M Mega solar (pilot distributed power source) G S Small-scale solar (distributed power sources subject to estimation) NW Communication network

Claims

1. a power source information storage means for storing power source information including a power generation capacity and an installation location of each distributed power source; A pilot distributed power source is a distributed power source having a power generation capacity incomparably larger than that of other distributed power sources, and a pilot power generation amount acquisition means acquires the amount of power generated by the pilot distributed power source; a power generation estimation means for estimating the power generation amount of a distributed power source that is installed in the surrounding area of ​​the pilot distributed power source and has a similar power generation tendency, based on power source information of the distributed power source and the power source information and power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source; A power generation amount estimation system for a distributed power source comprising:

2. the power generation amount estimation means calculates a power generation rate based on a power generation capacity and a power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source, and estimates the power generation amount based on the power generation rate and the power generation capacity of the distributed power source; 2. The system for estimating the amount of power generated by a distributed power source according to claim 1.

3. The power source information includes information on an impact on the amount of power generated by the distributed power source as power generation impact information, The power generation amount estimation means estimates the power generation amount based on the power generation influence information.

3. The system for estimating the amount of power generated by a distributed power source according to claim 1 or 2.

4. a power source information storage step of storing power source information including a power generation capacity and an installation location of each distributed power source; a pilot power generation acquisition step of acquiring the amount of power generated by a pilot distributed power source, the pilot distributed power source being a distributed power source having a power generation capacity incomparably larger than that of other distributed power sources; a power generation estimation step of estimating the power generation amount of a distributed power source that is installed in a surrounding area of ​​the pilot distributed power source and has a similar power generation tendency based on power source information of the distributed power source and the power source information and power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source; A method for estimating a power generation amount of a distributed power source, comprising:

5. Computer, a power source information storage means for storing power source information including a power generation capacity and an installation location of each distributed power source; a power generation amount estimation means for estimating the power generation amount of a distributed power source that is an order of magnitude larger than other distributed power sources as a pilot distributed power source, and for a distributed power source that is installed in the surrounding area of ​​the pilot distributed power source and has a similar power generation tendency, based on power source information of the pilot distributed power source and power source information and power generation amount of the pilot distributed power source; A power generation amount estimation program for a distributed power source, comprising:

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