ASSOCIATED BG DETERMINATION DEVICE, ASSOCIATED BG DETERMINATION METHOD, AND PROGRAM

Abstract

To determine a demand BG suitable as a contract partner of a power generation BG in terms of profits, out of multiple demand BGs.SOLUTION: A cooperative BG determination apparatus includes: a power generation BG planning unit which formulates a power generation plan and a sales plan of a power generation BG; a demand BG planning unit which formulates a demand plan and a procurement plan of each of a plurality of demand BGs which are candidates of bilateral contract partners for power transaction of the power generation BG; and a power market transaction unit price prediction unit which predicts a power market transaction unit price and outputs a power market transaction unit price prediction value. The power generation BG planning unit adjusts a power selling amount to a power transaction market and a power selling amount to the demand BG in the sales plan in accordance with the power market transaction unit price prediction value. The demand BG planning unit adjusts the demand plan and the procurement plan in accordance with the adjustment of the power selling amount to the demand BG in the sales plan, for each of the plurality of demand BGs. The power generation BG planning unit determines a demand BG by which profits to be obtained by the adjustment of the sales plan satisfy a predetermined criterion from among the demand BGs.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to an associated BG determination device, an associated BG determination method, and a program. [Background technology]

[0002] In recent years, balancing groups (hereinafter referred to as "BG") have been used as a group of businesses that settle imbalances (differences between plans and results) in electricity trading. BGs include generation BGs made up of power generation businesses and demand BGs made up of consumers (e.g., retail electricity businesses).

[0003] Since the power generation BG works to balance the amount of electricity simultaneously across the board, it can reduce the risk of imbalances. In addition, the power generation BG can sell the electricity it generates to its counterpart, the demand BG, and to the Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX).

[0004] For example, when the price of electricity trading on JEPX rises, a generation BG may want to sell less electricity to its bilateral contract counterpart, the demand BG, and sell more electricity on JEPX. However, in previous bilateral contracts for electricity trading, the amount of electricity traded during a unit period was generally fixed, and it was not possible to change the amount of electricity traded for each purchase destination. In the future, it is expected that there will be an increase in bilateral contracts (hereinafter referred to as new bilateral contracts) that allow for flexible changes in the amount of electricity bought and sold in electricity trading between a generation BG and a demand BG. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0005] [Patent Document 1] JP 2005-176495 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0006] From the viewpoint of a power generation BG, there are multiple demand BGs that are candidates for a new bilateral contract. In addition, the possible amount and certainty of implementing DR (Demand Response), the capacity of storage batteries, etc. differ depending on the demand BG. However, in the conventional technology, when focusing on one power generation BG, there is a problem in that it is not clear which of the multiple demand BGs it is profitable to enter into a new bilateral contract with.

[0007] Therefore, the objective of an embodiment of the present invention is to provide an linked BG determination device, a linked BG determination method, and a program that can determine, from among multiple demand BGs, a demand BG that is suitable as a contracting party from a profit perspective for a power generation BG of interest, assuming a bilateral contract that allows the amount of electricity bought and sold to be flexibly changed in electricity trading between a power generation BG and a demand BG. [Means for solving the problem]

[0008] The linked BG determination device of the embodiment includes a power generation BG planning unit that formulates a power generation plan and a sales plan for a power generation BG, a demand BG planning unit that formulates a demand plan and a procurement plan for each of a plurality of demand BGs that are candidates for bilateral contract counterparts in power trading of the power generation BG, and an electricity market trading unit price prediction unit that predicts an electricity market trading unit price, which is the unit price of power trading in the power trading market, and outputs a predicted value of the electricity market trading unit price. The power generation BG planning unit adjusts the amount of power sold to the power trading market in the sales plan and the amount of power sold to the demand BG in the sales plan according to the predicted value of the electricity market trading unit price, the demand BG planning unit adjusts the demand plan and the procurement plan for each of the plurality of demand BGs according to the adjustment of the amount of power sold to the demand BG in the sales plan, and the power generation BG planning unit determines a demand BG from among the plurality of demand BGs whose profit obtained by adjusting the sales plan satisfies a predetermined standard. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0009] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a schematic overview of the entire power system according to the embodiment. [Diagram 2]FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of a change in each of the power generation and demand plans in the embodiment. [Diagram 3] FIG. 3 is a block diagram illustrating a functional configuration of the information processing apparatus according to the embodiment. [Figure 4] FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of a first objective function in the embodiment. [Diagram 5] FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of a second objective function in the embodiment. [Figure 6] FIG. 6 is a flowchart illustrating the process performed by the information processing apparatus according to the embodiment. [Figure 7] FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing details of the process in step S104 of FIG. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0010] Hereinafter, the linked BG determination device, the linked BG determination method, and the program of the present embodiment will be described with reference to the drawings. In the following description, "system" means a power system. "Consumer" means a power consumer, and in a broad sense includes a retail electricity supplier. "Load" means a power load.

[0011] DR (Demand Response) refers to adjusting the amount of electricity consumed by consumers in order to balance the supply and demand of electricity. DR that lowers electricity demand by reducing the amount of electricity consumed by consumers is called "lower DR." DR that raises electricity demand by increasing the amount of electricity consumed by consumers is called "upper DR." Rewards (e.g., money) given to consumers in response to DR are called incentives.

[0012] In addition, the payment imposed on consumers who do not comply with DR is called a "penalty." Note that the existence of incentives and penalties, and the calculation method of the amount if there are any, may differ depending on the system at the time.

[0013] First, an overall overview of a power system S of an embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 1. Fig. 1 is a block diagram that shows a schematic overview of the overall power system S of an embodiment. The power system S includes a grid operator system 1, a market trading system 2 (power trading market), a power generation BG3, and a demand BG4.

[0014] The grid operator system 1 is a system used by a grid operator who operates a power grid to supply commercial power.

[0015] The market trading system 2 is, for example, an electricity market trading system used by JEPX. Hereinafter, the market trading system 2 may be referred to as “JEPX.”

[0016] The power generation BG 3 is a BG by the power generation companies 31 (31a, 31b). When there is no need to distinguish between the power generation companies A 31a and B 31b, they are simply referred to as the power generation company 31. The same applies to other configurations.

[0017] The power generation business operator 31 includes a renewable energy power generation resource 311 (hereinafter also referred to as a "renewable energy power source") and an adjustable power source resource 312 (hereinafter also referred to as an "adjustable power source" or "power source"). The renewable energy power generation resource 311 is a power generation resource that uses renewable energy (solar power, wind power, biomass, hydroelectric power, geothermal power, etc.). Note that the electricity generated by the renewable energy power generation resource 311 is often purchased at a purchase price higher than the electricity market price under a Feed-in Tariff (FIT) system or a Feed-in-Premium (FIP) system. Therefore, it is expected that the use of the renewable energy power generation resource 311 will progress in the future.

[0018] Furthermore, among renewable energy sources, for example, those using solar power or wind power fluctuate in the amount of power output, and are therefore also called variable renewable energy sources (VRE).

[0019] The adjustable power resource 312 is, for example, a power generation resource that uses non-renewable energy (thermal power, atomic power, etc.).

[0020] The demand BG4 is a BG provided by a consumer 41 (which may include a retail electricity supplier). The consumer 41 includes a load 411, a storage battery 412, and a renewable energy power generation resource 413.

[0021] The load 411 is a device or equipment that consumes power.

[0022] The storage battery 412 is a battery that can be repeatedly charged and discharged, and is also called a secondary battery or battery.

[0023] The renewable energy power generation resource 413 is a power generation resource that uses renewable energy.

[0024] A bilateral contract for power trading is concluded between the power generation BG3 and the demand BG4. The power generation BG3 can sell the generated power to the demand BG4, which is the counterpart of the bilateral contract, and to the market trading system 2.

[0025] For example, when the electricity trading price in the market trading system 2 rises, the power generation BG 3 may want to reduce the amount of electricity it sells to its bilateral contract counterpart, the demand BG 4, and increase the amount of electricity it sells to JEPX. However, in previous bilateral contracts for electricity trading, the amount of electricity traded during a unit period was generally fixed, and it was not possible to change the amount of electricity traded for each purchase destination. In the future, it is expected that there will be an increase in bilateral contracts (new bilateral contracts) that allow for flexible changes in the amount of electricity purchased and sold in electricity trading between the power generation BG and the demand BG.

[0026] In addition, from the viewpoint of the power generation BG3, there are a plurality of demand BG4s that are candidates for a new bilateral contract. In addition, the possible amount and certainty of DR implementation, the capacity of the storage battery, etc. differ depending on the demand BG4. However, in the conventional technology, when focusing on one power generation BG3, there is a problem that it is not clear which of the plurality of demand BG4s it is profitable to enter into a new bilateral contract with.

[0027] In addition, with the large-scale introduction of renewable energy sources in recent years, an increase in power generation BG3, mainly consisting of renewable energy sources, is expected in the future. In particular, in the case of Japan, it is expected that most of the renewable energy sources included in power generation BG3 will be VRE, but in that case, there is a risk that the profitability of power generation BG3 will deteriorate due to a lack of ability to flexibly adjust output according to electricity market prices.

[0028] In response to the above risks, a scheme is being considered in which power generation BG3 and demand BG4 cooperate to maximize the profits of power generation BG3 and the entire cooperative BG. For example, when the electricity market price is high, power generation BG3 requests downward DR from its cooperative partner demand BG4 to reduce the amount of electricity sold to demand BG4, and sells that amount of electricity to the market trading system 2, which has a higher trading price, thereby maximizing the profits of the entire cooperative BG.

[0029] Therefore, below, assuming a bilateral contract that allows the amount of electricity purchased and sold to be flexibly changed in electricity trading between a power generation BG3 and a demand BG4, a technology is described that can determine, from among multiple demand BG4s, a demand BG4 that is suitable as a contracting party from the perspective of profit for a power generation BG3 of interest.

[0030] An example of a change to each of the power generation and demand plans in the embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 2. Fig. 2 is a diagram showing a schematic diagram of an example of a change to each of the power generation and demand plans in the embodiment.

[0031] Figure 2(a) shows the state before the adjustment of power supply and demand. As shown in Figure 2(a1), a power generation plan and a sales plan are formulated for power generation BG3. In this example, the power generation plan includes renewable energy BG (power generated by renewable energy BG) and thermal power BG (power generated by thermal power BG).

[0032] In addition, the sales destinations in the sales plan include the relative retail BG (demand BG4) and JEPX (market trading system 2).

[0033] 2(a2), a demand plan and a procurement plan are formulated for demand BG4. In this example, power generation BG3 (relative procurement) is determined as the procurement source in the procurement plan in response to demand BG (demanded power by demand BG) in the demand plan.

[0034] Here, assume that the electricity trading price in JEPX (market trading system 2) is expected to rise in the hourly market. In that case, as shown in Figure 2 (b1), generation BG3 wants to reduce the relative retail BG in its sales plan and increase JEPX. In addition, since it is a relative contract that allows the amount of electricity purchased and sold to be changed flexibly, as shown in Figure 2 (b2), it can reduce demand by lowering DR in the demand plan of demand BG4, and accordingly reduce relative procurement in the procurement plan.

[0035] Here, let us consider a case where the downward DR fails. The following three cases (1) to (3) can be cited as examples of the failure of the downward DR. (1) Generation BG3 requested lowering DR from demand BG4, but demand BG4 refused. (2) Demand BG4 accepted the downward DR, but its subordinate consumer 41 rejected it. (3) Both demand BG4 and consumer 41 accepted the downward DR, but consumer 41 was unable to actually reduce its power consumption.

[0036] When evaluating (predicting) the risk of failure of downward DR, the calculation method may differ between (1), (2), and (3). Also, if the power generation BG3 and the demand BG4 are different players, any of (1) to (3) may occur. Also, if the power generation BG3 and the demand BG4 are the same player, (1) does not occur, but (2) and (3) may occur.

[0037] Furthermore, if a downward DR cannot be realized in demand BG4 after gate close (hereinafter also referred to as "GC"), it must be settled as a demand imbalance. For example, if the demand imbalance is low and the loss due to the demand imbalance is taken into account, it is sufficient if there is an overall profit due to the profit gained by changing the sales volume of electricity to each purchaser in power generation BG3. Therefore, if such a prediction can be made in advance, it is possible to make a decision that the sales volume of electricity to each purchaser in power generation BG3 should be changed. Demand BG4 can also choose to purchase the shortage of electricity from JEPX.

[0038] Taking such phenomena into consideration, we consider performing a trading simulation for a given linked BG (power generation BG3 + demand BG4) over a specific long period and calculating the total revenue of power generation BG3 and linked BG as the evaluation value. In addition to the failure of downward DR, we also consider the failure of upward DR and cases where the performance of renewable energy BG is less than planned.

[0039] If the actual performance of the renewable energy BG is less than planned, the following measures (11) and (12) can be considered to make up for the shortfall in generated power.

[0040] (11) Switch to another power source within power generation BG3 (alternative power generation) (12) Settlement as power generation imbalance

[0041] And, for example, even if the cost increase due to the implementation of (11) or (12) is taken into account, it is sufficient if there is an overall profit due to the profit gained from changing the sales volume of electricity to each purchaser in Power Generation BG3. Therefore, if such a prediction can be made in advance, it is possible to make a decision that the sales volume of electricity to each purchaser in Power Generation BG3 should be changed.

[0042] The trading strategy, post-GC risks, and countermeasures for power generation BG3 in cases where the electricity trading market price in the hourly market is expected to rise (or fall) are summarized as follows.

[0043] (If the electricity trading market price rises in the pre-hours market) (Trading strategy 1) Lower DR increases JEPX electricity sales (Risk after GC 1) Downward DR failure (Countermeasure 1) Evaluate the risk of failure of the down DR and adjust the amount of down DR (Countermeasure 2) Accepting demand imbalance (Countermeasure 1 not implemented)

[0044] (Risk 2 after GC) Decrease or increase in renewable energy output (Countermeasure 1) Increase or decrease the lower DR (plan) (Solution 2) Replacement with regulated power source (planned) (Solution 3) Replace with regulated power source (control) (Countermeasure 4) Accepting power generation imbalance (countermeasures 1 to 3 not implemented)

[0045] (Trading strategy 2) Increase in regulated power output leads to increased electricity sales to JEPX (Risks after GC) Decrease or increase in renewable energy output (Solution 1) Replacement with regulated power source (planned) (Solution 2) Replace with regulated power source (control) (Countermeasure 3) Accepting power generation imbalance (countermeasures 1 and 2 not implemented)

[0046] (When the electricity trading market price falls in the pre-hours market) (Trading strategy 1) Increased DR reduces JEPX electricity sales (Risk 1 after GC) Failure to raise DR (Countermeasure 1) Evaluate the risk of failure of the up-DR and adjust the amount of up-DR (Countermeasure 2) Accepting demand imbalance (Countermeasure 1 not implemented)

[0047] (Risk 2 after GC) Decrease or increase in renewable energy output (Countermeasure 1) Decrease or increase the DR (plan) (Solution 2) Replacement with regulated power source (planned) (Solution 3) Replace with regulated power source (control) (Countermeasure 4) Accepting power generation imbalance (countermeasures 1 to 3 not implemented)

[0048] (Trading strategy 2) Decrease in JEPX power sales due to decrease in regulated power output (Risks after GC) Decrease or increase in renewable energy output (Solution 1) Replacement with regulated power source (planned) (Solution 2) Replace with regulated power source (control) (Countermeasure 3) Accepting power generation imbalance (countermeasures 1 and 2 not implemented)

[0049] Next, an information processing device 5 (associated BG determination device) according to an embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 3. Fig. 3 is a block diagram showing a functional configuration of the information processing device 5 according to an embodiment. The information processing device 5 is, for example, a PC (Personal Computer).

[0050] The information processing device 5 includes a storage unit 51, an input unit 52, a display unit 53, a communication unit 54, and a processing unit 55.

[0051] The storage unit 51 is realized by, for example, a random access memory (RAM), a read only memory (ROM), a solid state drive (SSD), a hard disk drive (HDD), etc., and stores various information. The storage unit 51 stores, for example, various setting values, various parameters, a predetermined objective function, various calculation results, etc. The storage unit 51 includes a database (DB) 511.

[0052] DB511 stores information such as the power generation BG unit price (power supply output adjustment unit price), the power supply output change range, the demand adjustment range, the demand BG adjustment unit price (for consumers / for demand BG) (also referred to as the "demand adjustment unit price"), the electricity market trading unit price (or predicted value), and the power generation / demand imbalance unit price (or predicted value) (details will be described later).

[0053] The input unit 52 is a means for an operator to input various operations, and is, for example, a mouse, a keyboard, a touch panel, or the like.

[0054] The display unit 53 is a means for displaying information, and is, for example, an LCD (Liquid Crystal Display), a touch panel, or the like.

[0055] The communication unit 54 is a communication interface for communicating with an external device.

[0056] The processing unit 55 is realized by, for example, a CPU (Central Processing Unit) and executes various calculation processes. The processing unit 55 includes, for example, an acquisition unit 551, a renewable energy power generation amount prediction unit 552, a power market trading unit price prediction unit 553, an imbalance unit price prediction unit 554, a power generation BG planning unit 555, a demand BG planning unit 556, an incentive calculation unit 557, a profit allocation calculation unit 558, and a display control unit 559 as functional units.

[0057] The acquisition unit 551 acquires various information from the grid operator system 1, the market trading system 2, the power generation BG 3, the demand BG 4, the DB 511, and the like.

[0058] The renewable energy power generation amount prediction unit 552 predicts the amount of power generated by the renewable energy power generation resource 311 and the renewable energy power generation resource 413 based on past data, weather data, and the like.

[0059] The electricity market trading unit price prediction unit 553 predicts the electricity market trading unit price, which is the unit price of electricity trading in the market trading system 2, and outputs a predicted value of the electricity market trading unit price.

[0060] The imbalance cost prediction unit 554 predicts the power generation imbalance cost and the demand imbalance cost.

[0061] The power generation BG planning unit 555 formulates a power generation plan and a sales plan for the power generation BG 3. The power generation BG planning unit 555 adjusts the amount of power sold to the market trading system 2 and the amount of power sold to the demand BG 4 in the sales plan according to the predicted value of the power market trading unit price.

[0062] The power generation BG planning unit 555 determines, from among the multiple demands BG4, the demand BG4 for which the profit obtained by adjusting the sales plan meets a predetermined standard (for example, the maximum profit). In this case, for example, the power generation BG planning unit 555 assumes multiple output patterns of variable renewable energy power sources among the power sources held by the power generation BG3 during a predetermined operation period, calculates the profit obtained for each output pattern, calculates the expected value of profit from the occurrence probability of the output pattern of the variable renewable energy power source and the profit for each output pattern, and determines, from among the multiple demands BG4, the demand BG4 for which the expected value of profit is maximum.

[0063] The power generation BG planning unit 555, for example, simulates transactions in the power trading market by agent simulation.

[0064] The power generation BG planning unit 555 determines the priority order of the power sources to adjust the output based on the merit order of the power generation BG unit price, which is the cost unit price of the output of the power source (adjustable power source resource 312) of the power generation BG3.

[0065] The power generation BG planning unit 555 determines the amount of electricity to be sold to the market trading system 2 in the sales plan based on the priority of the power source that adjusts the output and the priority of the demand resource that adjusts the demand (determined by the demand BG planning unit 556).

[0066] The power generation BG planning unit 555 predicts the risk of power generation imbalance due to fluctuations in the output of the power sources of the power generation BG3 after GC in the market trading system 2, calculates an expected value of profit and loss based on the risk of power generation imbalance as a power generation imbalance profit and loss expected value, and reflects the power generation imbalance profit and loss expected value in the power generation BG unit price.

[0067] The demand BG planning unit 556 formulates a demand plan and a procurement plan for each of a plurality of demand BGs 4 that are candidates for a bilateral contract counterparty in the power trading of the power generation BG 3. The demand BG planning unit 556 adjusts the demand plan and the procurement plan for each of the plurality of demand BGs 4 in accordance with the adjustment of the amount of power sold to the demand BGs 4 in the sales plan.

[0068] When the demand BG planning unit 556 simulates DR in a transaction simulation, it is necessary to simulate the uncertainty of DR in order to reflect the fact that DR is not necessarily executed as planned in reality. Regarding a method for simulating DR with uncertainty, for example, a method using the following probability model and a method using an agent model are considered.

[0069] <Method using probability model> When adjusting the demand plan and the procurement plan for each of a plurality of demand BG4s in accordance with the adjustment of the amount of electricity sold to the demand BG4 in the sales plan, the demand BG planning unit 556 uses, for example, a probability model that generates a probability distribution of the DR amount for each time period for each consumer under the demand BG4 and determines the DR amount according to the probability distribution, for example. More specifically, it is as follows.

[0070] A probability distribution of the DR amount for each consumer and each time period is generated, and a probabilistic model is used to determine the DR amount according to the probability distribution. The characteristics of the DR resources owned by the consumer (such as storage batteries and air conditioners) can be reflected in the probability model. The distribution of the DR amount can be calculated backwards based on the capacity and SOC of storage batteries, and the consumer's temperature tolerance range and the temperature over a time section of an air conditioner.

[0071] <Agent model> When adjusting the demand plan and the procurement plan for each of a plurality of demand BG4 in accordance with the adjustment of the amount of electricity sold to the demand BG4 in the sales plan, the demand BG planning unit 556 simulates DR by, for example, agent simulation using an agent model of a demand resource related to the DR of the demand BG4. More specifically, it is as follows.

[0072] · A behavioral model (agent model) that reflects the DR resources owned by consumers (such as storage batteries and air conditioners) is constructed, and DR behavior is simulated using agent simulation.

[0073] The demand BG planning unit 556 determines the priority of the demand resources for which demand is to be adjusted based on the merit order of the demand BG adjustment unit price, which is the cost unit price related to adjusting the demand plan and procurement plan of the demand resources (load 411, storage battery 412, etc.) of the demand BG3.

[0074] The demand BG planning unit 556 predicts the risk of demand imbalance due to the adjustment of demand resources in the demand plan not being carried out as planned after GC, calculates the expected value of profit and loss based on the risk of demand imbalance as a demand imbalance profit and loss expected value, and reflects the demand imbalance profit and loss expected value in the demand BG adjustment unit price.

[0075] The incentive calculation unit 557 calculates an incentive amount for the adjustment of the demand plan and the procurement plan by the demand BG planning unit 556.

[0076] The profit allocation calculation unit 558 calculates the allocation of the profit obtained by adjusting the sales plan to the power generation BG3 and the demand BG4.

[0077] The display control unit 559 displays various information on the display unit 53. The display control unit 559 causes the display unit 53 to display, for example, the power generation BG unit price, the demand BG adjustment unit price, the merit order of the power generation BG unit price, the merit order of the demand BG adjustment unit price, the power generation imbalance profit / loss expectation value of the power source, the demand imbalance profit / loss expectation value of the demand resource, the penalty when the adjustment of the demand resource is not performed as planned, and the profit expected to be obtained by adjusting the sales plan.

[0078] Here, FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram of an example of a first objective function in an embodiment. Processing using the example of the first objective function is performed, for example, by the power generation BG planning unit 555 cooperating with the demand BG planning unit 556 and the like. Here, the profit in the coordinated BG (power generation BG3 and demand BG4) is maximized. Therefore, the relative electricity sales revenue and demand adjustment cost (between BGs), which are transactions between the power generation BG3 and the demand BG4, are not taken into consideration. In addition, the power generation imbalance and the demand imbalance are paid to the power transmission and distribution company 9. Then, the maximization of the following objective function F1 is considered.

[0079] Objective function F1 = "Electricity sales revenue from market trading system 2 (JEPX) (= market trading volume x market trading price)" - "Power generation cost (= power generation BG unit price x power generation amount)" - "Demand adjustment cost (to consumers) (= consumer adjustment unit price x demand adjustment amount)" - "Power generation imbalance (forecast value)" - "Demand imbalance (forecast)"

[0080] A calculation is performed to maximize the value of this objective function F1, and each parameter (electricity market trading volume, power generation volume, demand adjustment volume, etc.) is determined.

[0081] For example, the power generation imbalance (forecast value) (power generation imbalance profit / loss expectation value) is incorporated (reflected) in the power generation BG unit price, and the demand imbalance (forecast value) (demand imbalance profit / loss expectation value) is incorporated (reflected) in the demand BG adjustment unit price, so that the imbalances are handled in a merit order that takes into account the imbalances.

[0082] Next, Fig. 5 is an explanatory diagram of a second objective function example in the embodiment. The process using the second objective function example is performed, for example, by the power generation BG planning unit 555. Here, the profit of the power generation BG3 is maximized. Then, the maximization of the following objective function F2 is considered.

[0083] Objective function F2 = "Electricity sales revenue from market trading system 2 (JEPX) (= market trading volume x market trading price)" + "Relative electricity sales revenue" - "Demand adjustment cost (between BGs) (= demand BG adjustment unit price x demand adjustment amount)" - "Power generation cost (= power generation BG unit price x power generation amount)" - "Power generation imbalance (forecast value)"

[0084] A calculation is performed to maximize the value of this objective function F2, and each parameter (electricity market trading volume, power generation volume, demand adjustment volume, etc.) is determined.

[0085] For example, the power generation imbalance (forecast value) (power generation imbalance profit / loss expectation value) is incorporated (reflected) in the power generation BG unit price, and is handled in a merit order that takes the imbalance into account.

[0086] Next, the processing by the information processing device 5 of the embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 6. Fig. 6 is a flowchart showing the processing by the information processing device 5 of the embodiment. Note that, in the following, with regard to processing other than the processing specific to this embodiment (for example, the formulation of a power generation plan, a sales plan, a demand plan, a procurement plan, etc. before supply and demand adjustment), it is assumed that the same processing as in the past is performed even if no explanation is given.

[0087] First, in step S101, the power generation BG planner 555 determines candidates for a combination of linked BGs, that is, candidates for a demand BG4 to be linked with a power generation BG3 of interest.

[0088] Next, in step S102, the power generation BG planner 555 determines a simulation period (for example, several months to several years) for determining the predictability of the business.

[0089] Next, in step S103, the power generation BG planning unit 555 determines a renewable energy output curve (output by renewable energy power source for each time period), and the demand BG planning unit 556 determines a demand curve (demand for each time period). Specifically, for example, the renewable energy output curve of the power generation BG3 and the demand curve of the demand BG4 are determined based on the scale and type of demand of the renewable energy power source and the demand BG4 owned by the power generation BG3, past performance patterns, etc. Note that since the output by the renewable energy power source is particularly uncertain, multiple output patterns may be assumed, for example, by Monte Carlo simulation.

[0090] Next, in step S104, the power generation BG planning unit 555 executes a trading simulation in cooperation with the demand BG planning unit 556. That is, for the target business simulation period, optimization is performed at each time slice using the renewable energy output curve of power generation BG3 and the demand curve of demand BG4, etc., with the market trading volume, the relative trading volume between power generation BG3 and demand BG4, the power generation volume of the regulating power source, the adjustment volume to demand BG4, etc., as design variables, and the total profit for the target business simulation period is calculated.

[0091] FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing details of the process in step S104 in FIG.

[0092] First, in step S1, the renewable energy power generation amount prediction unit 552 predicts the amount of power generated by the renewable energy power generation resource 311 and the renewable energy power generation resource 413 based on past data, weather data, and the like.

[0093] Next, in step S2, the electricity market trading unit price prediction unit 553 predicts the electricity market trading unit price and outputs the electricity market trading unit price prediction value.

[0094] Next, in step S3, the acquisition unit 551 acquires power output adjustment unit price information from the DB 511.

[0095] Next, in step S4, the acquisition unit 551 acquires power output changeable range information from the DB 511.

[0096] Next, in step S5, the acquisition unit 551 acquires the demand adjustment unit price information from the DB 511.

[0097] Next, in step S6, the acquisition unit 551 acquires the demand adjustable range information from the DB 511.

[0098] Next, in step S7, the acquisition unit 551 acquires the demand adjustment incentive unit price information from the DB 511.

[0099] Next, in step S8, the imbalance cost prediction unit 554 predicts the power generation imbalance cost and the demand imbalance cost.

[0100] Next, in step S9, the power generation BG planning unit 555 determines the priority and adjustment amount of the power sources to adjust the output based on the merit order of the power generation BG unit price, which is the cost unit price of the output of the power source of the power generation BG3 (adjustable power source resource 312).

[0101] Next, in step S10, the demand BG planning unit 556 determines the priority and adjustment amount of the demand resources to be adjusted based on the merit order of the demand BG adjustment unit price, which is the cost unit price related to adjusting the demand plan and procurement plan of the demand resources (load 411, storage battery 412, etc.) of demand BG3.

[0102] Next, in step S11, the power generation BG planner 555 calculates a power generation imbalance profit / loss expectation value based on the risk of power generation imbalance, and reflects the power generation imbalance profit / loss expectation value in the power output adjustment unit price information (power generation BG unit price).

[0103] Next, in step S12, the demand BG planning unit 556 calculates a demand imbalance profit / loss expectation value based on the risk of demand imbalance, and reflects the demand imbalance profit / loss expectation value in the demand adjustment unit price information.

[0104] Next, in step S13, the power generation BG planning unit 555 performs calculations to maximize the value of the objective functions (F1, F2) and determines each parameter (market trading volume of electricity, relative trading volume between power generation BG3 and demand BG4, power generation volume of regulating power sources, demand adjustment volume, etc.).

[0105] The process of step S104 may be performed, for example, for either the hourly market or the spot market, or may be performed across both markets to achieve optimization.

[0106] Returning to FIG. 6, after step S104, in step S105, the power generation BG planning unit 555 determines whether or not the transaction simulation has been completed for all candidate combinations of linked BGs, and if Yes, proceeds to step S107, and if No, proceeds to step S106.

[0107] In step S106, the power generation BG planning unit 555 changes the combination of the linked BGs. In other words, if there is still a candidate for the linked demand BG4 for the power generation BG3 of interest, the candidate is selected. After step S106, the process returns to step S103.

[0108] In step S107, the power generation BG planning unit 555 determines the demand BG4 that will maximize the profit obtained by adjusting the sales plan from among all the demand BG4s that are candidates for collaboration, based on the transaction simulation results, for the power generation BG3 of interest. Note that, in this example, the combination of collaboration BGs that maximizes the profit is searched for in a brute force manner, but it may be searched for using an evolutionary method (e.g., a combinatorial optimization method such as metaheuristics).

[0109] In this way, according to the information processing device 5 of the present embodiment, when a bilateral contract is assumed in which the amount of power purchased and sold can be flexibly changed in the power transaction between the power generation BG3 and the demand BG4, it is possible to determine, from among a plurality of demands BG4, a demand BG4 that is suitable as a contracting party from the viewpoint of profit for the power generation BG3 of interest. In other words, it is possible to determine, from among a plurality of demands BG4, a demand BG4 whose profit obtained by adjusting the sales plan satisfies a predetermined standard. Therefore, it is possible to contribute to the promotion of such bilateral contracts.

[0110] It should be noted that the profit in the "profit perspective" may be the profit of the power generation BG3 of interest, or the total profit of both the power generation BG3 of interest and the demand BG4 of the cooperation partner.

[0111] In addition, when performing a trading simulation, by assuming multiple output patterns of variable renewable energy sources, it is possible to perform a more accurate simulation that is in line with reality.

[0112] In addition, by simulating transactions in the electricity trading market using agent simulation, and simulating DR using a probabilistic model or agent model, it is possible to obtain more accurate processing results.

[0113] The program executed by the information processing device 5 of this embodiment may be provided by being recorded in an installable or executable format on a computer-readable recording medium such as a CD-ROM, a flexible disk (FD), a CD-R, or a DVD (Digital Versatile Disk).

[0114] The program may be stored on a computer connected to a network such as the Internet and provided by being downloaded via the network. The program may be provided or distributed via a network such as the Internet.

[0115] The program may also be provided in a state where it is pre-installed in a ROM or the like.

[0116] Although some embodiments of the present invention have been described, these embodiments are presented as examples and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention. These novel embodiments can be implemented in various other forms, and various omissions, substitutions, and modifications can be made without departing from the spirit of the invention. These embodiments and their modifications are included in the scope and spirit of the invention, and are included in the scope of the invention and its equivalents described in the claims.

[0117] For example, an aggregator that adjusts the supply and demand balance of the power grid may be present in the power system S. In this case, for example, the aggregator adjusts the supply and demand balance of the power grid in a large unit that aggregates multiple power generation BG3 and multiple demands BG4.

[0118] It is not always necessary to perform all of the processes in the above-described embodiment. For example, the incentive calculation process may be treated as an option and not be performed.

[0119] In addition, the objective function is not limited to the above two, and may be another objective function. In addition, the objective function may reflect all money inflows and outflows, or may only deal with the change in money inflows and outflows from a base situation.

[0120] Also, for example, when performing a trading simulation, it may be possible to reflect the fact that the closer the GC is, the more accurate the prediction of renewable energy output becomes, but the lower the possibility of buying back electricity. [Explanation of symbols]

[0121] 1...system operator, 2...market trading system, 3...power generation BG, 4...demand BG, 5...information processing device, 9...power transmission and distribution company, 31...power generation company, 41...consumer, 51...storage unit, 52...input unit, 53...display unit, 54...communication unit, 55...processing unit, 311...renewable energy power generation resource, 312...adjustable power source resource, 411...load, 412...storage battery, 413...renewable energy power generation resource, 551...acquisition unit, 552...renewable energy power generation amount prediction unit, 553...electricity market trading unit price prediction unit, 554...imbalance unit price prediction unit, 555...power generation BG planning unit, 556...demand BG planning unit, 557...incentive calculation unit, 558...profit distribution calculation unit, 559...display control unit, S...power system

Claims

1. A Power Generation BG (Balancing Group) Planning Department that formulates power generation plans and sales plans for the Power Generation BG; a demand BG planning unit that formulates a demand plan and a procurement plan for each of a plurality of demand BGs that are candidates for a bilateral contract counterparty of the power generation BG; an electricity market trading unit price prediction unit that predicts an electricity market trading unit price, which is a unit price of electricity trading in the electricity trading market, and outputs an electricity market trading unit price prediction value; The power generation BG planning unit adjusts the amount of power sold to the power trading market and the amount of power sold to the demand BG in the sales plan according to the power market trading unit price forecast value, the demand BG planning unit adjusts the demand plan and the procurement plan in accordance with an adjustment of an amount of electricity sold to the demand BG in the sales plan for each of the plurality of demand BGs; The power generation BG planning unit is an associated BG determination device that determines, from among the multiple demand BGs, a demand BG in which the profit obtained by adjusting the sales plan satisfies a predetermined standard.

2. The power generation BG planning unit When adjusting the amount of electricity sold to the electricity trading market and the amount of electricity sold to the demand BG in the sales plan according to the electricity market trading unit price forecast value, A plurality of output patterns of variable renewable energy power sources among the power sources owned by the power generation BG are assumed during a predetermined operation period; Calculate the profit obtained for each of the output patterns, and calculate an expected value of the profit from the occurrence probability of the output pattern of the variable renewable energy power source and the profit for each output pattern; The linked BG determination device according to claim 1 , further comprising: determining a demand BG that maximizes an expected profit from among the plurality of demand BGs.

3. The linked BG determination device according to claim 1 , wherein the power generation BG planning unit simulates trading in the power trading market by agent simulation.

4. The linked BG determination device of claim 1, wherein when adjusting the demand plan and the procurement plan for each of the multiple demand BGs in accordance with an adjustment of the amount of electricity sold to the demand BG in the sales plan, and simulating a DR (Demand Response), the demand BG planning unit uses a probability model that generates a probability distribution of the DR amount for each time period for each consumer under the demand BG and determines the DR amount in accordance with the probability distribution.

5. The linked BG determination device of claim 1, wherein when the demand BG planning unit adjusts the demand plan and the procurement plan in accordance with an adjustment of the amount of electricity sold to the demand BG in the sales plan for each of the multiple demand BGs, and when simulating a DR, the demand BG planning unit simulates the DR by agent simulation using an agent model of demand resources related to the DR of the demand BG.

6. A power generation BG planning step in which a power generation BG planning department formulates a power generation plan and a sales plan for the power generation BG; a demand BG planning step in which a demand BG planning unit formulates a demand plan and a procurement plan for each of a plurality of demand BGs that are candidates for a bilateral contract counterparty of the power generation BG; an electricity market trading unit price prediction step in which an electricity market trading unit price prediction unit predicts an electricity market trading unit price, which is a unit price of electricity trading in the electricity trading market, and outputs an electricity market trading unit price prediction value; In the power generation BG planning step, the power generation BG planning unit adjusts the amount of power sold to the power trading market and the amount of power sold to the demand BG in the sales plan according to the power market trading unit price forecast value, In the demand BG planning step, the demand BG planning unit adjusts the demand plan and the procurement plan in accordance with an adjustment of the amount of electricity sold to the demand BG in the sales plan for each of the plurality of demand BGs; A linked BG determination method in which, in the power generation BG planning step, the power generation BG planning unit determines, from among the multiple demand BGs, a demand BG whose profit obtained by adjusting the sales plan meets a predetermined standard.

7. Computer, a Power Generation Business Group Planning Department that formulates power generation plans and sales plans for the Power Generation Business Group; a demand BG planning unit that formulates a demand plan and a procurement plan for each of a plurality of demand BGs that are candidates for a bilateral contract counterparty of the power generation BG; A program for functioning as an electricity market trading unit price prediction unit that predicts an electricity market trading unit price, which is a unit price of electricity trading in an electricity trading market, and outputs an electricity market trading unit price prediction value, The power generation BG planning unit adjusts the amount of power sold to the power trading market and the amount of power sold to the demand BG in the sales plan according to the power market trading unit price forecast value, the demand BG planning unit adjusts the demand plan and the procurement plan in accordance with an adjustment of an amount of electricity sold to the demand BG in the sales plan for each of the plurality of demand BGs; The power generation BG planning unit is a program that determines, from among the multiple demand BGs, a demand BG for which the profit obtained by adjusting the sales plan satisfies a predetermined standard.

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