Power Generation System

Abstract

Suppress the decline in the amount of electricity generated by power generation that uses natural energy in combination. [Solution] A power generation system including a natural power generation device that generates electricity using natural energy and a stable power generation device that generates electricity more stably than the natural power generation device, wherein the amount of electricity generated by the stable power generation device is determined to be a normal power generation amount, which is an amount less than the maximum amount of electricity that the stable power generation device can generate, before the start of a planned power generation period, which is the period during which electricity is generated by the natural power generation device and the stable power generation device.When the amount of electricity generated by the natural power generation device during the planned power generation period is less than the planned value, the stable power generation device can generate an amount of electricity that is obtained by subtracting the amount of electricity generated by the natural power generation device from the planned value, and the normal power generation amount is less than the stable power generation amount, which is the amount obtained by subtracting the difference between the actual amount of electricity generated by the natural power generation device in the past and the planned value of the amount of electricity generated by the natural power generation device from the maximum amount of electricity that the stable power generation device can generate.

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a power generation system. [Background technology]

[0002] 2. Description of the Related Art There is a power generation system that includes a power generation facility that generates power using natural energy such as sunlight, and a power generation facility that generates power with less influence from climate, such as thermal power generation. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] International Publication No. 2015 / 098083 [Patent Document 2] JP 2011-101492 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] However, power generation using natural energy is easily affected by the natural environment, such as the weather. As a result, the amount of power generated by the entire power generation system may decrease. More specifically, for example, the amount of power generated by the entire power generation system may decrease below the previous day's planned value due to the influence of the natural environment.

[0005] In view of the above circumstances, an object of the present invention is to provide a technique for suppressing a decrease in the amount of electric power generated by power generation using natural energy in combination. [Means for solving the problem]

[0006] One aspect of the present invention is a power generation system including a natural power generation device that generates power using natural energy, and a stable power generation device that generates power more stably than the natural power generation device, wherein the power generation amount of the stable power generation device is determined to a normal power generation amount, which is an amount less than the maximum amount of power that can be generated by the stable power generation device, before the start of a planned power generation period during which power is generated by the natural power generation device and the stable power generation device, so that when the power generation amount of the natural power generation device during the planned power generation period is less than a planned value, the stable power generation device can generate an amount of power that is obtained by subtracting the power generation amount of the natural power generation device from the planned value, and the normal power generation amount is less than the stable power generation amount, which is the amount obtained by subtracting the difference between the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device in the past and the planned value for the power generation amount of the natural power generation device from the maximum amount of power that can be generated by the stable power generation device. Effect of the Invention

[0007] According to the present invention, it is possible to suppress a decrease in the amount of electric power generated by power generation using natural energy in combination. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0008] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an overview of a power generation system 100 according to an embodiment. [Diagram 2] FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a first difference estimator in the embodiment. [Diagram 3] FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of the magnitude of fluctuation in the amount of power generated each month by a natural power generation device 11 according to an embodiment. [Figure 4] 4 is a diagram showing an example of the amount of power generated in summer and winter by a natural power generation device 11 according to an embodiment. FIG. [Diagram 5] 5A and 5B are diagrams showing an example of a stable power generation amount in summer and a stable power generation amount in winter of the stable power generation device 21 in the embodiment. [Figure 6] 4 is a diagram showing an example of a system plan value in summer and a system plan value in winter generated in the power generation system 100 of the embodiment. FIG. [Figure 7]5 is a diagram showing an example of the relationship between the electric power generated by the power generation system 100 of the embodiment and the electric power determined by the power generation control device 3. FIG. [Figure 8] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of a hardware configuration of a power generation control device 3 in the embodiment. [Figure 9] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of the functional configuration of a control unit 31 in the embodiment. [Figure 10] 5 is a first flowchart showing an example of the flow of processing executed by the power generation control device 3 before the start of a planned power generation period in the embodiment. [Figure 11] 10 is a second flowchart showing an example of the flow of processing executed by the power generation control device 3 before the start of a planned power generation period in the embodiment. [Figure 12] 5 is a flowchart showing an example of a flow of processes executed by a power generation control device 3 during a planned power generation period in the embodiment. [Figure 13] FIG. 13 is a diagram showing an example of a functional configuration of a control unit 31a in a modified example. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0009] (Embodiment) 1 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an overview of a power generation system 100 according to an embodiment. The power generation system 100 includes a natural power generation facility 1, a stable power generation facility 2, a power generation control device 3, and a battery 4. Note that the power generation system 100 does not necessarily need to include the battery 4. For simplicity of explanation, the power generation system 100 will be described below using an example in which the power generation system 100 includes the battery 4.

[0010] The natural power generation facility 1 is a power generation facility including a natural power generation device 11, a sensor 12, and a communication device 13. The natural power generation device 11 generates power using natural energy such as solar power generation and wind power generation. The sensor 12 acquires information indicating the amount of power generation of the natural power generation device 11 by measurement. The communication device 13 is communicably connected to the power generation control device 3, and transmits information indicating the amount of power generation acquired by the sensor 12 (hereinafter referred to as "natural power generation amount information") to the power generation control device 3. Instructions for operations such as starting and ending power generation of the natural power generation device 11 may be transmitted from the power generation control device 3 via the communication device 13. In this way, the natural power generation facility 1 is communicably connected to the power generation control device 3 via the communication device 13.

[0011] Since the natural power generation device 11 generates power using natural energy, the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 at each time depends on the state of the natural environment, such as the weather. The power generated by the natural power generation device 11 is supplied to an external power grid.

[0012] The stable power generation facility 2 is a power generation facility including a stable power generation device 21 and a communication device 22. The stable power generation device 21 generates power that is less dependent on the state of the natural environment, such as thermal power generation or biomass power generation. The communication device 22 is communicably connected to the power generation control device 3. The operation of the stable power generation device 21 is controlled by the power generation control device 3 via the communication device 22. In this manner, the stable power generation facility 2 is communicably connected to the power generation control device 3 via the communication device 22. Note that being less dependent on the state of the natural environment means that the effect of the state of the natural environment on the amount of power generation is relatively smaller than the effect of the natural power generation device 11 on the amount of power generation. Therefore, the stable power generation device 21 is a device that generates power more stably than the natural power generation device 11.

[0013] The electric power generated by the stable power generation device 21 is supplied to an external power system. The stable power generation facility 2 is, for example, a thermal power generation facility. The stable power generation facility 2 is, for example, a waste treatment facility. The stable power generation facility 2 may be, for example, a biomass power generation facility. The stable power generation device 21 is, for example, a device that generates geothermal power.

[0014] The power generation control device 3 controls the operation of the power generation system 100. More specifically, the power generation control device 3 controls, for example, the amount of power generated by the stabilizer power generation device 21. When the power generation system 100 includes a battery 4, the power generation control device 3 controls the power output from the battery 4. The battery 4 is a battery capable of outputting power, and the operation of which is controlled by the power generation control device 3. The power generation control device 3 controls the battery 4, specifically, by controlling the power supply state of the battery 4 between on and off.

[0015] The power generation control device 3 performs pre-processing before the start of the planned power generation period. The pre-processing is a process for estimating the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 based on at least information indicating the state of the natural environment (hereinafter referred to as "natural environment information"). The planned power generation period is a period during which power generation is planned by the natural power generation device 11 and the stable power generation device 21. By performing the pre-processing, the power generation control device 3 obtains an estimation result of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 (hereinafter referred to as "determined estimated power generation amount"). Furthermore, by performing the pre-processing, the power generation control device 3 also estimates the difference between the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 and the determined estimated power generation amount.

[0016] The actual amount means the amount obtained by the sensor 12 through measurement during the planned power generation period, not the amount estimated by the power generation control device 3 before the start of the planned power generation period. Hereinafter, the actual amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 during the planned power generation period is referred to as the actual natural power generation amount. The amount of power generated by the sensor 12 is the actual natural power generation amount. Therefore, the content indicated by the natural power generation amount information is the actual natural power generation amount.

[0017] Furthermore, by executing the pre-processing, the power generation control device 3 determines the amount of power (hereinafter referred to as the "normal power generation amount") to be generated by the stabilizing power generation device 21 until a situation occurs in which the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 is less than the determined estimated power generation amount. The normal power generation amount satisfies either or both of the conditions that it is an amount less than the maximum amount of power that the stabilizing power generation device 21 can generate and that it is an amount less than the rated amount of power that the stabilizing power generation device 21 can generate.

[0018] During the planned power generation period, the power generation control device 3 executes a power generation control process. The power generation control process is a process for making the stable power generation device 21 generate the normal amount of power based on the natural power generation amount information until a situation occurs in which the actual amount of power generation of the natural power generation device 11 is less than the determined estimated power generation amount.

[0019] In this way, the determined estimated power generation amount is a reference amount for changing the operation of the stabilizing power generation device 21. Therefore, the determined estimated power generation amount is a planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 for not changing the operation of the stabilizing power generation device 21.

[0020] More specifically, the planned value is an amount estimated by the power generation control device 3, and is the amount of power generation planned during the planned power generation period before the start of the planned power generation period. The determined estimated power generation amount is a type of planned value. More specifically, the determined estimated power generation amount is a planned value of the amount of power generation of the natural power generation device 11.

[0021] Furthermore, since the amount of power generated by the stabilizing power generation device 21 is reduced in advance in this manner, when the actual amount of natural power generation does not reach the planned amount of power generation of the natural power generation device 11, the stabilizing power generation device 21 can increase the amount of power generation to alleviate the shortage. In other words, when the actual amount of natural power generation does not reach the planned amount of power generation of the natural power generation device 11, the stabilizing power generation device 21 can generate power to alleviate the shortage. Therefore, when the amount of power generation of the natural power generation device 11 during the planned power generation period is less than the planned value, the power generation control device 3 increases the amount of power generation of the stabilizing power generation device 21. In this manner, the power generation control device 3 suppresses a decrease in the amount of power generated by the power generation system 100.

[0022] The power generation control device 3 also executes scheduled information output processing. The scheduled information output processing is processing for outputting, from among the information acquired by the pre-processing, information obtained at a timing before the start of the scheduled power generation period and satisfying a predetermined condition (hereinafter referred to as "scheduled information") to a predetermined output destination before the start of the scheduled power generation period. The scheduled information is, for example, information indicating the sum of the determined estimated power generation amount and the normal power generation amount. The scheduled information may also indicate the normal power generation amount.

[0023] The specified output destination is, for example, a specified organization that manages electricity. The specified organization that manages electricity is, for example, the Agency for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators. The timing at which the specified condition is satisfied is, specifically, the timing determined by the output destination of the scheduled information. The timing at which the specified condition is satisfied is, for example, the day before the scheduled power generation period. The scheduled information submitted to the Agency for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators is, for example, submitted as a day-ahead plan.

[0024] The schedule information output process may be executed before all of the preliminary processes are completed. The schedule information output process may be executed, for example, after a first power generation schedule process described below is executed on the day before the start of the power generation schedule period. In such a case, the schedule information output process outputs the results obtained in the first power generation schedule process as schedule information.

[0025] <More specific explanation using an example> An example of such a power generation control device 3 will be described in more detail below with reference to Figs. 2 to 12 in addition to Fig. 1.

[0026] The power generation control device 3 executes a first power generation schedule process, a second power generation schedule process, a schedule determination process, and a schedule information output process. The first power generation schedule process, the second power generation schedule process, and the schedule determination process are examples of processes executed in the pre-processing. First, the first power generation schedule process will be described.

[0027] The first power generation schedule process includes a first natural power generation state estimation process and a first stable power generation candidate amount determination process. The first natural power generation state estimation process includes a first power generation estimate amount estimation process and a first difference estimate amount estimation process.

[0028] The first estimated power generation amount estimation process is a process for estimating the amount of power generation of the natural power generation device 11 at each time during the planned power generation period based on the first estimation factor information described below. Hereinafter, the amount of power generation of the natural power generation device 11 estimated by executing the first estimated power generation amount estimation process and at each time during the planned power generation period will be referred to as the first estimated power generation amount.

[0029] The power generation schedule period is, for example, the day after the first power generation schedule process is executed. The power generation schedule period may be, for example, one week after the first power generation schedule process is executed.

[0030] The first difference estimate is a process for estimating the first difference estimate at each time of the planned power generation period based on the first estimation factor information. The first difference estimate is an amount indicating the difference between the estimated value of the actual natural power generation and the first estimated power generation, and is an amount at each time of the planned power generation period. The first difference estimate is indicated, for example, by the absolute value of the difference between the estimated value of the actual natural power generation and the first estimated power generation. The first difference estimate may be indicated, for example, by the degree of dispersion of the power generation distribution. In this case, the first estimated power generation is a representative value of the power generation.

[0031] The first stable power generation candidate amount determination process is a process for determining the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 during the planned power generation period based on the first power generation estimated amount and the first difference estimated amount. More specifically, the first stable power generation candidate amount determination process is a process for determining the first stable power generation candidate amount based on the estimation result of the first natural power generation state estimation process. The first stable power generation candidate amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the first difference estimated amount from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device 21 can generate.

[0032] The first estimation factor information is information used to estimate the first estimated power generation amount and the first estimated difference amount, and includes at least the first natural environment information. The first natural environment information is an example of the natural environment information.

[0033] The first natural environment information is information indicating either or both of the state of the natural environment at a timing that satisfies a predetermined first timing condition and an estimated result of the state of the natural environment during the planned power generation period. The first timing condition includes a condition that it is before the start time of the planned power generation period. The state of the natural environment may be indicated, for example, by temperature, by the amount of solar radiation, by the amount of clouds, or by information indicating a season. The state of the natural environment may be indicated, for example, by the altitude or angle of the sun. That is, the information indicating the state of the natural environment may include, for example, temperature, by the amount of solar radiation, by the amount of clouds, by information indicating a season, or by information indicating the altitude or angle of the sun. The information indicating the state of the natural environment may include, for example, the time. The state of the natural environment may be, for example, temperature for each hour, the amount of solar radiation for each hour, the amount of clouds for each hour, or the altitude or angle of the sun for each hour. The information indicating the state of the natural environment may include, for example, the time of sunrise or sunset. The information indicating the state of the natural environment may include, for example, the hours of sunshine in a day.

[0034] The first timing condition is, for example, the day before the scheduled start date of the power generation period. The first timing condition may be, for example, the day one week before the scheduled start date of the power generation period.

[0035] Therefore, the first natural environment information is, for example, information indicating the state of the natural environment during the planned power generation period. The information indicating the state of the natural environment during the planned power generation period is, for example, an estimated result of the weather during the planned power generation period announced by an organization that estimates the weather, such as the Japan Meteorological Agency. The first natural environment information may be, for example, information indicating the season of the planned power generation period, such as whether the planned power generation period is summer or winter. The first natural environment information may include, for example, information indicating the state of the natural environment immediately before the execution of the first power generation schedule process.

[0036] For ease of explanation, the power generation system 100 will be described below taking as an example a case where the first natural environment information includes information indicating whether the planned power generation period is in summer. Note that in summer, the fluctuation in the time axis direction of the intensity of sunlight is greater than in other seasons, so the fluctuation in the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 in the time axis direction is greater than in other seasons. A greater fluctuation means that the degree of dispersion of the distribution of the amount of power generation is greater.

[0037] In this way, the first power generation schedule process is a process for estimating the first estimated power generation amount and the first estimated difference amount and determining the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 during the power generation scheduled period based on the first estimation factor information.

[0038] More specifically, the first natural power generation state estimation process is a process that uses previously obtained first relationship information to estimate a first power generation estimate and a first difference estimate based on first estimation factor information.

[0039] The first relationship information includes information indicating a relationship between the contents indicated by the first natural environment information and a time series of the actual natural power generation amount during the planned power generation period (hereinafter referred to as "first estimated power generation amount relationship information"). The first relationship information includes information indicating a relationship between the contents indicated by the first natural environment information and a time series of the difference between the power generation amount at each time indicated by the first estimated power generation amount relationship information and the estimated value of the actual natural power generation amount at each time during the planned power generation period (hereinafter referred to as "first difference estimated amount relationship information"). Note that the power generation amount at each time indicated by the first estimated power generation amount relationship information is advance information obtained in advance, and the actual natural power generation amount at each time during the planned power generation period is the actual power generation amount. Therefore, the power generation amount at each time indicated by the first estimated power generation amount relationship information may be information obtained by a mathematical model such as a simulation. On the other hand, the actual natural power generation amount at each time during the planned power generation period needs to be an actually measured value, not information obtained by a mathematical model.

[0040] FIG. 2 is an explanatory diagram for explaining the first difference estimate in the embodiment. The horizontal axis of FIG. 2 represents the time of day from 3:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. The vertical axis of FIG. 2 represents the amount of power generation. FIG. 2 shows an example of the first power generation estimate and the first power generation difference estimate. FIG. 2 also shows the actual power generation. The first power generation difference estimate is obtained, for example, as the prediction interval range of regression analysis. The power generation target curve shown in FIG. 2 is an example of the first power generation estimate. The prediction interval range indicates "what range it is predicted to be in" for the future predicted value.

[0041] The first relationship information is a mathematical model obtained in advance, for example, by a machine learning method, and is a mathematical model that shows the relationship between the contents indicated by the first natural environment information and the representative value and the degree of dispersion of the distribution of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 in each divided period that divides the planned power generation period.

[0042] The machine learning method used to obtain the first relationship information may be, for example, regression analysis. The machine learning method used to obtain the first relationship information may be, for example, random forest.

[0043] The first power generation estimate relation information may be, for example, a relational database showing the relationship between the contents of the first natural environment information and the time series of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 during the power generation planned period. The first difference estimate relation information may be, for example, a relational database showing the relationship between the contents of the first natural environment information and the time series of the difference between the power generation amount at each time indicated by the first power generation estimate relation information and the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 during each time during the power generation planned period. Next, the second power generation schedule process will be described.

[0044] The second power generation schedule process includes a second natural power generation state estimation process and a second stable power generation candidate amount determination process. The second natural power generation state estimation process includes a second power generation estimate amount estimation process and a second difference estimate amount estimation process.

[0045] The second estimated power generation amount estimation process is a process for estimating the amount of power generation of the natural power generation device 11 at each time during the planned power generation period based on second estimation factor information described later. Hereinafter, the amount of power generation of the natural power generation device 11 estimated by executing the second estimated power generation amount estimation process and at each time during the planned power generation period will be referred to as the second estimated power generation amount.

[0046] The second difference estimate is a process for estimating the second difference estimate at each time of the planned power generation period based on the second estimation factor information. The second difference estimate is an amount indicating the difference between the estimated value of the actual natural power generation and the second estimated power generation, and is an amount at each time of the planned power generation period. The second difference estimate is indicated, for example, by the absolute value of the difference between the estimated value of the actual natural power generation and the second estimated power generation. The second difference estimate may be indicated, for example, by the degree of dispersion of the power generation distribution. In this case, the second estimated power generation is a representative value of the power generation.

[0047] The second stable power generation candidate amount determination process is a process for determining the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 during the planned power generation period based on the second power generation estimated amount and the second difference estimated amount. More specifically, the second stable power generation candidate amount determination process is a process for determining the second stable power generation candidate amount based on the estimation result of the second natural power generation state estimation process. The second stable power generation candidate amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the second difference estimated amount from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device 21 can generate.

[0048] The second estimation factor information is information used to estimate the second estimated power generation amount and the second estimated difference amount, and includes at least the second natural environment information. The second natural environment information is an example of the natural environment information.

[0049] The second natural environment information is information indicating the state of the natural environment at a timing that satisfies a predetermined second timing condition. The second timing condition includes a condition that the timing is before the start time of the scheduled power generation period and closer to the start time of the scheduled power generation period than the timing that satisfies the first timing condition. The state of the natural environment may be indicated, for example, by temperature, by the amount of solar radiation, by the amount of cloud cover, or by information representing the season. That is, the information indicating the state of the natural environment may include, for example, temperature, by the amount of solar radiation, by the amount of cloud cover, or by information representing the season.

[0050] The second timing condition is, for example, one hour before the start of the scheduled power generation period. The second timing condition may be, for example, a time before the start of the day of the scheduled power generation period. The time before the start of the day of the scheduled power generation period is, for example, a time between 6:00 a.m. and 8:00 a.m.

[0051] For ease of explanation, the power generation system 100 will be described below using as an example a case in which the second timing condition is one hour before the start time of the planned power generation period, and the second natural environment information indicates the season, amount of solar radiation, and cloud cover at the time when the second timing condition is satisfied.

[0052] More specifically, the second natural power generation state estimation process is a process that uses second relationship information obtained in advance to estimate a second power generation estimate and a second difference estimate based on second estimation factor information.

[0053] The second relationship information includes information indicating a relationship between the content indicated by the second natural environment information and a time series of the actual natural power generation amount during the planned power generation period (hereinafter referred to as "second estimated power generation amount relationship information"). The second relationship information includes information indicating a relationship between the content indicated by the second natural environment information and a time series of the difference between the power generation amount at each time indicated by the second estimated power generation amount relationship information and the actual natural power generation amount at each time during the planned power generation period (hereinafter referred to as "second difference estimated amount relationship information"). Note that the power generation amount at each time indicated by the second estimated power generation amount relationship information is advance information obtained in advance, and the actual natural power generation amount at each time during the planned power generation period is the actual power generation amount. Therefore, the power generation amount at each time indicated by the second estimated power generation amount relationship information may be information obtained by a mathematical model such as a simulation. On the other hand, the actual natural power generation amount at each time during the planned power generation period needs to be an actually measured value, not information obtained by a mathematical model.

[0054] The second relationship information is a mathematical model obtained in advance, for example, by a machine learning method, and is a mathematical model that shows the relationship between the contents indicated by the second natural environment information and the representative value and the degree of dispersion of the distribution of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 in each divided period that divides the planned power generation period.

[0055] The machine learning method used to obtain the second relationship information may be, for example, a regression analysis. The machine learning method used to obtain the second relationship information may be, for example, a random forest.

[0056] The second power generation estimate relationship information may be, for example, a relational database showing the relationship between the content indicated by the second natural environment information and the time series of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 during the planned power generation period. The second difference estimate relationship information may be, for example, a relational database showing the relationship between the content indicated by the second natural environment information and the time series of the difference between the power generation amount at each time indicated by the second power generation estimate relationship information and the actual natural power generation amount at each time during the planned power generation period. The first relationship information and the second relationship information may be different or the same.

[0057] The schedule determination process includes an estimated natural power generation state determination process and a stable power generation amount determination process. The estimated natural power generation state determination process is a process for determining which of the first and second estimated amounts should be set as a determined estimated amount for the scheduled power generation period based on a difference between the first and second estimated amounts (hereinafter referred to as a "scheduled error").

[0058] The first estimated quantity is a quantity indicating the first power generation estimated quantity and the first difference estimated quantity. The second estimated quantity is a quantity indicating the second power generation estimated quantity and the second difference estimated quantity. The determined estimated quantity is a quantity indicating the determined power generation estimated quantity and the determined difference estimated quantity. Setting a value to the determined estimated quantity means recording the value as the determined estimated quantity in a predetermined storage device such as the storage unit 34 described later. The set value is a value scheduled as the power generation amount during the scheduled power generation period.

[0059] The determined difference estimator is a quantity that satisfies the condition that it is the first difference estimator when the first estimator is determined as the determined estimator, and is the second difference estimator when the second estimator is determined as the determined estimator.

[0060] In the process of determining the estimated natural power generation state, if the estimated error is equal to or smaller than a predetermined criterion, the first estimated amount is set as the determined estimated amount, whereas in the process of determining the estimated natural power generation state, if the estimated error is greater than the predetermined criterion, the second estimated amount is set as the determined estimated amount.

[0061] In this way, the estimated natural power generation state determination process is a process for determining a determined power generation estimate and a determined difference estimate based on the scheduled error. In addition, since the determined estimate is either the first estimate or the second estimate, the determined power generation estimate is either the first power generation estimate or the second power generation estimate. Therefore, the determined power generation estimate is also an amount estimated as the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 during the scheduled power generation period.

[0062] The stable power generation amount determination process is a process for determining whether to set the first stable power generation amount candidate or the second stable power generation amount candidate as the stable power generation amount for the planned power generation period based on the planned error. The details of the stable power generation amount will be described later. Setting a value as the stable power generation amount means recording the value as the stable power generation amount in a predetermined storage device such as the storage unit 34 described later.

[0063] In the stable power generation amount determination process, if the estimated error is equal to or smaller than a predetermined difference, the first stable power generation candidate amount is set as the stable power generation amount. On the other hand, in the stable power generation amount determination process, if the estimated error is greater than the predetermined difference, the second stable power generation candidate amount is set as the stable power generation amount. In this way, the stable power generation amount is either the first stable power generation candidate amount or the second stable power generation candidate amount.

[0064] <Explanation about stable power generation> The stable power generation amount will be described. As described above, the first stable power generation candidate amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the first difference estimated amount from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device 21 can generate. The first difference estimated amount is an amount indicating the difference between the estimated value of the actual natural power generation amount and the first estimated power generation amount, and is the amount at each time of the planned power generation period. Therefore, the first stable power generation candidate amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the difference between the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 and the first estimated power generation amount from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device 21 can generate. The first estimated power generation amount when the stable power generation amount is set to the first stable power generation candidate amount is the planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11. Therefore, when the stable power generation amount is set to the first stable power generation candidate amount, the stable power generation amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the difference between the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 and the planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device 21 can generate.

[0065] As described above, the second stable power generation candidate amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the second difference estimated amount from the maximum amount of power generation that the stable power generation device 21 can generate. The second difference estimated amount is an amount indicating the difference between the actual amount of power generation of the natural power generation device 11 and the second estimated amount of power generation. Therefore, the second stable power generation candidate amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the difference between the actual amount of power generation of the natural power generation device 11 and the second estimated amount of power generation from the maximum amount of power generation that the stable power generation device 21 can generate. The second estimated amount of power generation when the stable power generation amount is set to the second stable power generation candidate amount is the planned value of the amount of power generation of the natural power generation device 11. Therefore, when the stable power generation amount is set to the second stable power generation candidate amount, the stable power generation amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the difference between the actual amount of power generation of the natural power generation device 11 and the planned value of the amount of power generation of the natural power generation device 11 from the maximum amount of power generation that the stable power generation device 21 can generate.

[0066] In this way, the stable power generation amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the difference between the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 and the planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device 21 can generate. Therefore, the stable power generation amount is an example of the normal power generation amount.

[0067] Furthermore, for this reason, the stable power generation device 21, which generates a stable amount of power, is in a state where it can generate electricity to make up for the shortfall if the actual amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 does not reach the planned value of the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11.

[0068] In this way, the stable power generation amount determination process is a process for determining a stable power generation amount based on the scheduled error. As described above, the first stable power generation amount candidate is a result obtained based on the first difference estimate, and the second stable power generation amount candidate is a result obtained based on the second difference estimate. Therefore, the stable power generation amount determination process is also a process for determining a stable power generation amount based on the scheduled error and the determined difference estimate.

[0069] In this way, the schedule determination process is a process for determining the determined estimated power generation amount and the stable power generation amount based on the scheduled error. In the schedule determination process, when the scheduled error is equal to or smaller than a predetermined difference, the first estimated power generation amount is set to the determined estimated power generation amount and the first stable power generation candidate amount is set to the stable power generation amount. On the other hand, in the schedule determination process, when the scheduled error is greater than the predetermined difference, the second estimated power generation amount is set to the determined estimated power generation amount and the second stable power generation candidate amount is set to the stable power generation amount.

[0070] <Description of the relationship between the contents of the schedule determination process and the control by the power generation control device 3> As described above, the first natural environment information is information that indicates either or both of the state of the natural environment at a time when a predetermined first timing condition is satisfied and the estimated result of the state of the natural environment during the planned power generation period. Meanwhile, the second natural environment information is information that indicates either or both of the state of the natural environment at a time when a predetermined second timing condition is satisfied and the actually measured result of the state of the natural environment during the planned power generation period.

[0071] The timing at which the first timing condition is satisfied is a timing earlier in the planned power generation period than the timing at which the second timing condition is satisfied. Therefore, the second estimated amount estimated using information on the timing at which the second timing condition is satisfied is more likely to actually occur than the first estimated amount estimated using information on the timing at which the first timing condition is satisfied. The same applies to the relationship between the first estimated amount determined using the estimated result of the state of the natural environment in the planned power generation period and the second estimated amount determined using the result of the actual measurement of the timing at which the second timing condition is satisfied.

[0072] That is, the second estimated amount estimated using the result of actual measurement at the timing satisfying the second timing condition is more likely to actually occur than the first estimated amount estimated using the result of estimating the state of the natural environment during the planned power generation period. Therefore, the second estimated amount estimated by the second power generation schedule process using the second natural environment information is more likely to actually occur than the first estimated amount estimated by the first power generation schedule process using the first natural environment information.

[0073] Therefore, when the planned error is greater than a predetermined difference, the power generation control device 3 controls the operation of the stable power generation device 21 so that the amount of power generation determined by the second power generation planning process is generated, thereby performing control that is more likely to be realized.

[0074] <Explanation of the relationship between the efficiency of utilization of the stable power generation device 21 and the control by the power generation control device 3> Here, the relationship between the efficiency of utilization of the stable power generation device 21 and the control by the power generation control device 3 will be described. More specifically, the relationship between the operating efficiency of the stable power generation device 21 and the control by the power generation control device 3 will be described. Operating efficiency is the actual amount of power generated relative to the maximum amount of power that a power generation device such as the natural power generation device 11 or the stable power generation device 21 can generate. The lower the operating efficiency, the more spare capacity the power generation facility has in terms of generating electricity. However, low operating efficiency also means that the power generation facility is not being utilized as much as when the operating efficiency is high.

[0075] Therefore, it is desirable that the operating efficiency of the stable power generation device 21 is as high as possible within the range where a stable supply of the system power generation amount is possible. A stable supply of power means that the amount of power supplied is always equal to or greater than the planned value. The system power generation amount is the amount of power generated by the entire power generation system 100. More specifically, it is the sum of the power generated by the natural power generation device 11, the stable power generation device 21, and the battery 4.

[0076] Therefore, the power generation control device 3 performs control to lower the operating efficiency of the stable power generation device 21 during periods when the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 fluctuates greatly along the time axis, such as in the summer season, as described above. When the amount of power generated fluctuates greatly along the time axis, the natural power generation device 11 frequently fails to generate the estimated amount of power generation.

[0077] In such a case, if the stable power generation device 21 has a surplus in terms of power generation, the shortage of power can be made up by increasing the amount of power generated by the stable power generation device 21. Therefore, the power generation control device 3 performs control to lower the target operating efficiency of the stable power generation device 21 in advance during periods when the amount of power generation fluctuates greatly along the time axis.

[0078] In addition, the external power system to which the power is supplied is generally equipped with a storage device such as a storage battery and has a function of storing surplus power. Therefore, the power generation control device 3 does not need to perform control to prevent the total power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 and the stable power generation device 21 from exceeding the system planned value.

[0079] <Control by the power generation control device 3 during the planned power generation period> The first power generation schedule process, the second power generation schedule process, the schedule information output process, and the schedule determination process are processes executed before the start of the planned power generation period. The power generation control device 3 operates not only before the start of the planned power generation period, but also during the planned power generation period. During the planned power generation period, the power generation control device 3 performs a monitoring process and a compensation control process at a predetermined cycle. The monitoring process and the compensation control process are examples of processes executed in the power generation control process.

[0080] The monitoring process is a process of at least monitoring the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11. More specifically, the monitoring process is a process of acquiring natural power generation amount information and determining whether or not the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 is less than the determined estimated power generation amount based on the acquired natural power generation amount information.

[0081] The compensation control process is a process for causing the power compensation device to execute a process for compensating for the shortage of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 when it is determined as a result of the monitoring process that the actual natural power generation amount is less than the determined estimated power generation amount. The shortage of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 is the difference between the power generation amount indicated by the natural power generation amount information (i.e., the actual natural power generation amount) and the determined estimated power generation amount.

[0082] The power compensation device is a device capable of outputting power other than that of the natural power generation device 11 and generating power that is less dependent on the state of the natural environment. An example of the power compensation device is the stable power generation device 21. For example, in the case where the power generation system 100 includes a battery 4, the power compensation device may be the battery 4.

[0083] More specifically, the compensation control process is a process for controlling the operation of the power compensation device when the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 is less than the determined estimated power generation amount, thereby increasing the power generated by the power compensation device by at least the amount obtained by subtracting the actual natural power generation amount from the determined estimated power generation amount (hereinafter referred to as the "estimation error"). The estimation error may be expressed in any way as long as it can indicate the amount obtained by subtracting the actual natural power generation amount from the determined estimated power generation amount, and is indicated, for example, by the absolute value of the amount obtained by subtracting the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 from the planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11.

[0084] When a situation occurs in which the actual natural power generation amount is less than the determined estimated power generation amount, the power generation control device 3 does not necessarily need to increase the system power generation amount by an amount equal to or greater than the estimation error simply by increasing the power generation amount of the stabilizing power generation device 21. For example, the power generation control device 3 may cause the battery 4 to output power by switching the power supply state of the battery 4 from off to on, and control the operation of the stabilizing power generation device 21 so that the sum of the power output by the battery 4 and the increase in the power generation amount of the stabilizing power generation device 21 is equal to the system power generation amount.

[0085] 3 to 7, the amount of power generated by each power generation device will be described when the natural power generation device 11 is a power generation device that generates power from sunlight and the stable power generation device 21 is a power generation device that generates power from biomass.

[0086] Fig. 3 is a diagram showing an example of the magnitude of the estimation error of the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 for each month in the embodiment. The horizontal axis of Fig. 3 represents each month from January to December. The vertical axis of Fig. 3 represents the estimation error. Fig. 3 shows that the estimation error is larger in summer months such as June and July than in winter months such as December and January.

[0087] Fig. 4 is a diagram showing an example of the amount of power generated in summer and winter by the natural power generation device 11 in the embodiment. More specifically, Fig. 4 is a diagram showing an example of the amount of power generated in summer and winter in an example where the natural power generation device 11 generates power using sunlight. The horizontal axis of Fig. 4 represents the time of day from 3:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. The vertical axis of Fig. 4 represents the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11. Fig. 4 shows that the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 is greater in summer than in winter.

[0088] Fig. 5 is a diagram showing an example of the stable power generation amount in summer and the stable power generation amount in winter of the stable power generation device 21 in the embodiment. More specifically, Fig. 5 is a diagram showing an example of the power generation amount in summer and the power generation amount in winter in the case where the stable power generation device 21 generates power using biomass. The horizontal axis of Fig. 5 represents the time of day from 3:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. The vertical axis of Fig. 5 represents the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21.

[0089] Fig. 5 shows that there are time periods in the summer when the amount of power generated by the stabilizing power generation device 21 is less than in the winter. As shown in Fig. 3, the fluctuation in the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 is greater in the summer than in the winter. Therefore, in the summer, the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 may be lower than the target. Therefore, as shown in Fig. 5, there are time periods in the summer when the amount of power generated by the stabilizing power generation device 21 is set lower than in the winter.

[0090] Fig. 6 is a diagram showing an example of system planned values ​​in summer and winter generated by the power generation system 100 of the embodiment. More specifically, Fig. 6 is a graph showing the sum of the graph shown in Fig. 4 and the graph shown in Fig. 5. The horizontal axis of Fig. 6 represents the time of day from 3:00 am to 9:00 pm. The vertical axis of Fig. 6 represents the sum of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 and the power generation amount of the stabilized power generation device 21. Fig. 6 shows that the control shown in Fig. 5 was performed, and thus approximately the same power generation amount was obtained in both summer and winter.

[0091] FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of the relationship between the power generated by the power generation system 100 of the embodiment and the power determined by the power generation control device 3. The horizontal axis of FIG. 7 represents the time from 6:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. in one day. The vertical axis of FIG. 7 represents the amount of power generation. The time t1 and after shown in FIG. 7 is the planned power generation period. The "predicted value" of FIG. 7 represents the sum of the first estimated power generation amount and the first stable power generation candidate amount. The "corrected value" of FIG. 7 represents the sum of the second estimated power generation amount and the second stable power generation candidate amount. The "actual power generation value" of FIG. 7 represents the actual natural power generation amount. The "stable power supply predicted control value" of FIG. 7 represents the amount of power generation by the stable power generation device 21 out of the amount of system power generation. The "storage charge / discharge" of FIG. 7 represents the amount of power generation by the battery 4 out of the amount of system power generation.

[0092] As shown in Fig. 3, when the natural power generation device 11 is a power generation device that generates power using sunlight, the estimation error is larger in summer than in winter. Therefore, the stable power generation amount determined by executing the first power generation schedule process, the second power generation schedule process, and the schedule determination process is smaller in summer than in winter, as shown in Fig. 5. Such a difference in the stable power generation amount according to the period is not limited to the relationship between summer and winter, but is common to the relationship between a period in which the generated estimation error is relatively large (hereinafter referred to as the "first period") and a period in which the generated estimation error is relatively small (hereinafter referred to as the "second period"). Moreover, this is not limited to the stable power generation amount but is common to the normal power generation amount.

[0093] In this way, the power generation control device 3 controls the operation of the stable power generation device 21 so that the normal power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 in the first period is smaller than the normal power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 in the second period. This type of processing is not only performed when the first power generation schedule processing, the second power generation schedule processing, the schedule determination processing, the monitoring processing, and the compensation control processing are executed, but is common to the cases where the preliminary processing and the power generation control processing are executed.

[0094] 8 is a diagram showing an example of a hardware configuration of the power generation control device 3 in the embodiment. The power generation control device 3 includes a control unit 31 including a processor 91 such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit) and a memory 92 connected by a bus, and executes a program. The power generation control device 3 functions as a device including the control unit 31, a communication unit 32, an input unit 33, a storage unit 34, and an output unit 35 by executing the program.

[0095] More specifically, in the power generation control device 3, the processor 91 reads out a program stored in the storage unit 34 and stores the read out program in the memory 92. The processor 91 executes the program stored in the memory 92, whereby the power generation control device 3 functions as a device including a control unit 31, a communication unit 32, an input unit 33, a storage unit 34, and an output unit 35.

[0096] The control unit 31 controls the operation of various functional units included in the power generation control device 3. The control unit 31 executes, for example, a first power generation schedule process. The control unit 31 executes, for example, a second power generation schedule process. The control unit 31 executes, for example, a schedule determination process. The control unit 31 executes, for example, a monitoring process. The control unit 31 executes, for example, a compensation control process.

[0097] The control unit 31, for example, controls the operation of the output unit 35. The control unit 31, for example, controls the operation of the output unit 35 to cause the output unit 35 to output schedule information. The process in which the control unit 31 controls the operation of the output unit 35 to cause the output unit 35 to output schedule information is an example of a schedule information output process.

[0098] The control unit 31 records various information generated by, for example, the first power generation schedule process, the second power generation schedule process, the schedule determination process, the monitoring process, or the compensation control process in the storage unit 34. The control unit 31 records various information input to, for example, the communication unit 32 or the input unit 33 in the storage unit 34.

[0099] The communication unit 32 includes a communication interface for connecting the power generation control device 3 to an external device. The communication unit 32 communicates with the external device via wired or wireless communication. The external device is, for example, a natural power generation facility 1. The external device is, for example, a stable power generation facility 2. The external device is, for example, a device that transmits the first estimated factor information. The external device is, for example, a device that transmits the second estimated factor information.

[0100] The device that transmits the first estimation factor information is, for example, a server of the Japan Meteorological Agency.The device that transmits the second estimation factor information is, for example, a server of the Japan Meteorological Agency.

[0101] The communication unit 32 acquires information output by the external device through communication with the external device. The information output by the external device is, for example, natural power generation amount information. The natural power generation amount information is acquired through communication with the natural power generation facility 1. The information output by the external device is, for example, first estimated factor information. The information output by the external device is, for example, second estimated factor information. The communication unit 32 controls the operation of the external device of the communication destination by communicating with the external device and transmitting a control signal which is a signal that controls the operation of the external device of the communication destination. The external device whose operation the communication unit 32 controls through communication is, for example, the stable power generation device 21.

[0102] The input unit 33 includes input devices such as a mouse, a keyboard, and a touch panel. The input unit 33 may be configured as an interface that connects these input devices to the power generation control device 3. The input unit 33 accepts input of various information to the power generation control device 3. For example, an instruction to start a first power generation schedule process is input to the input unit 33. For example, an instruction to start a second power generation schedule process is input to the input unit 33. For example, an instruction to start a schedule determination process is input to the input unit 33. For example, an instruction to start a monitoring process is input to the input unit 33.

[0103] The storage unit 34 is configured using a computer-readable storage medium device such as a magnetic hard disk device, a semiconductor storage device, etc. The storage unit 34 stores the first relationship information in advance. The storage unit 34 stores the second relationship information in advance.

[0104] The storage unit 34 stores various information related to the power generation system 100 including the power generation control device 3 itself. The storage unit 34 stores information inputted via, for example, the communication unit 32 or the input unit 33. The storage unit 34 stores various information generated by execution of processing by, for example, the control unit 31.

[0105] The first estimation factor information, the second estimation factor information, or the natural power generation amount information does not necessarily have to be input only to the communication unit 32. The first estimation factor information, the second estimation factor information, or the natural power generation amount information may be input to the input unit 33.

[0106] The output unit 35 outputs various information. The output unit 35 includes a display device such as a CRT (Cathode Ray Tube) display, a liquid crystal display, or an organic EL (Electro-Luminescence) display. The output unit 35 may be configured as an interface that connects these display devices to the power generation control device 3. The output unit 35 may include a printer, for example. The output unit 35 outputs information input to the input unit 33, for example. The output unit 35 may display the results of processing executed by the control unit 31, for example. The output unit 35 outputs schedule information, for example.

[0107] 9 is a diagram illustrating an example of a functional configuration of the control unit 31 in the embodiment. The control unit 31 includes a communication control unit 310, an input information acquisition unit 320, a pre-processing execution unit 330, a power generation control process execution unit 340, an output control unit 350, and a memory control unit 360.

[0108] The communication control unit 310 controls the operation of the communication unit 32. The input information acquisition unit 320 acquires information input to the input unit 33 or the communication unit 32.

[0109] The pre-processing execution unit 330 executes pre-processing. The pre-processing execution unit 330 executes, for example, a first power generation schedule process, a second power generation schedule process, and a schedule determination process as the pre-processing. The power generation control process execution unit 340 executes power generation control process. The power generation control process execution unit 340 executes, for example, a monitoring process and a compensation control process as the power generation control process.

[0110] The output control unit 350 controls the operation of the output unit 35. The output control unit 350 executes, for example, a schedule information output process. The output control unit 350 controls the operation of the output unit 35 by executing the schedule information output process, and causes the output unit 35 to output schedule information. The memory control unit 360 records various information in the memory unit 34.

[0111] For simplicity of explanation, an example of the flow of the processes executed by the power generation control device 3 will be described below using an example where the processes executed by the pre-processing execution unit 330 are the first power generation schedule process, the second power generation schedule process, and the schedule determination process. Also, for simplicity of explanation, an example of the flow of the processes executed by the power generation control device 3 will be described below using an example where the processes executed by the power generation control process execution unit 340 are the monitoring process and the compensation control process. Also, for simplicity of explanation, an example of the flow of the processes executed by the power generation control device 3 will be described below using an example where the normal power generation amount is the stable power generation amount.

[0112] Fig. 10 is a first flowchart showing an example of the flow of processing executed by the power generation control device 3 before the start of a planned power generation period in an embodiment. The processing shown in Fig. 10 is executed at a timing after the timing at which the first timing condition is satisfied and before the timing at which the second timing condition is satisfied.

[0113] The input information acquisition unit 320 acquires first estimation factor information input to the communication unit 32 or the input unit 33 (step S101). Next, the pre-processing execution unit 330 acquires a first estimated amount and a first stable power generation candidate amount based on the first estimation factor information (step S102). Next, the output control unit 350 controls the operation of the output unit 35 to cause the output unit 35 to output schedule information (step S103).

[0114] Fig. 11 is a second flowchart showing an example of the flow of processing executed by the power generation control device 3 before the start of the planned power generation period in the embodiment. The processing of step S201 is executed after the processing of step S103. The processing shown in Fig. 11 is executed at a timing after the timing at which the second timing condition is satisfied and before the start of the planned power generation period.

[0115] The input information acquisition unit 320 acquires second estimation factor information input to the communication unit 32 or the input unit 33 (step S201). Next, the pre-processing execution unit 330 acquires a second estimated amount and a second stable power generation candidate amount based on the second estimation factor information (step S202). Next, the pre-processing execution unit 330 determines whether the difference between the first estimated amount and the second estimated amount (i.e., the estimated error) is equal to or smaller than a predetermined standard (step S203).

[0116] The difference between the first and second estimates includes, more specifically, the difference between the first and second power generation estimates and the difference between the first and second difference estimates. The predetermined criterion is, for example, that the difference between the first and second estimates is that the sum of the Kth power (K ​​is 1 or more) of the norm of the difference between the first and second power generation estimates and the Kth power of the norm of the difference between the first and second difference estimates (i.e., the sum of squared norms) is a predetermined value or more.

[0117] If the expected error is equal to or smaller than a predetermined standard (step S203: YES), the pre-processing execution unit 330 determines the first estimated amount as the determined estimated amount, and determines the stable power generation amount as the first stable power generation candidate amount (step S204). Next, the pre-processing execution unit 330 transmits a control signal to the stable power generation device 21 via the communication control unit 310 to instruct the stable power generation device 21 to generate the stable power generation amount (step S205). That is, in the control of step S205, the pre-processing execution unit 330 controls the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 to the stable power generation amount via the communication control unit 310.

[0118] On the other hand, if the expected error is greater than the predetermined criterion (step S203: NO), the pre-processing execution unit 330 determines the second estimated amount as the determined estimated amount, and determines the stable power generation amount as the second stable power generation candidate amount (step S206). After the process of step S206, the process of step S205 is executed.

[0119] Fig. 12 is a flowchart showing an example of the flow of processing executed by the power generation control device 3 during a planned power generation period in an embodiment. The processing of step S301 is executed after the processing of step S203. The processing shown in Fig. 12 is executed at a timing after the start of the planned power generation period. The processing shown in Fig. 12 is repeatedly executed at a predetermined cycle during the planned power generation period.

[0120] The input information acquisition unit 320 acquires natural power generation information (step S301). Next, the power generation control process execution unit 340 determines whether the actual natural power generation indicated by the natural power generation information acquired in step S301 is less than the estimated power generation amount determined in step S204 or step S206 (step S302).

[0121] If the actual natural power generation amount is less than the determined power generation estimated amount (step S302: YES), the power generation control process execution unit 340 transmits a control signal to the stable power generation device 21 via the communication control unit 310 to instruct the device 21 to increase the amount of power generation (step S303). That is, in the control of step S303, the power generation control process execution unit 340 controls the device 21 to increase the amount of power generation to be greater than the stable power generation amount via the communication control unit 310. Then, a new process of step S301 is started.

[0122] On the other hand, if the actual natural power generation amount is equal to or greater than the determined power generation estimated amount (step S302: NO), the process ends. Therefore, the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 is the stable power generation amount. The end of the process during the planned power generation period means the start of a new step S301.

[0123] The power generation control device 3 in this embodiment configured as above includes the preliminary process execution unit 330 and the power generation control process execution unit 340, and therefore can increase the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 when the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 is less than the determined estimated power generation amount during the planned power generation period. Therefore, the power generation control device 3 can suppress a decrease in the amount of power generated by power generation that also uses natural energy.

[0124] Furthermore, since the power generation control device 3 in the embodiment configured as described above includes the preliminary processing execution unit 330 and the power generation control processing execution unit 340, it is possible to suppress the frequency with which the system power generation falls below the system planned value. Therefore, the power generation control device 3 can suppress the occurrence of a situation in which the amount of power generated by power generation using natural energy in combination does not reach the target.

[0125] Furthermore, since the power generation control device 3 in this embodiment configured as above includes the pre-processing execution unit 330 and the power generation control process execution unit 340, it is also possible to suppress a decrease in the operating efficiency of the natural power generation device 11 and the stabilizing power generation device 21. In other words, the power generation control device 3 can also make effective use of the natural power generation device 11 and the stabilizing power generation device 21.

[0126] The power generation system 100 of the embodiment thus configured includes a pre-processing execution unit 330 and a power generation control processing execution unit 340. Therefore, the power generation system 100 can suppress a decrease in the amount of power generated by power generation that also uses natural energy. The power generation system 100 can also suppress the occurrence of a situation in which the amount of power generated by power generation that also uses natural energy does not reach a target. The power generation system 100 can also effectively utilize the natural power generation device 11 and the stable power generation device 21.

[0127] (Modification) The natural environment information may include information indicating the location of the natural power generation device 11. For example, even if the weather is fine, the intensity of sunlight that can be received by the natural power generation device 11 varies depending on the region. In this way, natural energy may vary depending on the location of the natural power generation device 11. Therefore, when the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 is estimated in pre-processing based on information indicating the location of the natural power generation device 11, a more accurate estimation result can be obtained than an estimation not based on information indicating the location of the natural power generation device 11.

[0128] As shown in FIG. 3, when the natural power generation device 11 is a power generation device that generates power using sunlight, the estimation error is larger in summer than in winter. Therefore, the normal power generation amount determined by the execution of pre-processing by the pre-processing execution unit 330 is smaller in summer than in winter, as shown in FIG. 5. Such a difference in the normal power generation amount according to the period is not limited to the relationship between summer and winter, but is common to the relationship between a period in which the generated estimation error is relatively large (hereinafter referred to as the "first period") and a period in which the generated estimation error is relatively small (hereinafter referred to as the "second period"). In this way, the pre-processing execution unit 330 controls the operation of the stable power generation device 21 so that the normal power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 in the first period is smaller than the normal power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 in the second period.

[0129] The normal power generation amount does not necessarily have to be the stable power generation amount, and may be an amount of power lower than the stable power generation amount.

[0130] The pre-processing execution unit 330 may execute a process of acquiring information indicating timing such as date, time, or year (hereinafter referred to as "clock information"). The process of acquiring the clock information is acquired, for example, by the pre-processing execution unit 330 itself executing a process of counting numbers. When the timing indicated by the acquired clock information is the timing of transition from a predetermined first period to a second period, the pre-processing execution unit 330 may change the normal power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 from the normal power generation amount for the first period to the normal power generation amount for the second period.

[0131] Note that power generation using biomass has a characteristic that power generation efficiency deteriorates if the amount of power generation is changed a predetermined number of times in a day. The predetermined number is, for example, two or three times. Therefore, when the stable power generation device 21 generates power using biomass, if the amount of power generation of the natural power generation device 11 is still insufficient after the power generation control process execution unit 340 has performed the process of increasing the amount of power generation of the stable power generation device 21 a predetermined number of times, the alternative compensation process may be performed. The alternative compensation process is a process in which, instead of increasing the amount of power generation of the stable power generation device 21, the amount of power generation of another power compensation device other than the stable power generation device 21, such as the battery 4, is increased to an amount that compensates for the shortage of the amount of power generation of the natural power generation device 11.

[0132] In the case of power generation using biomass, it may take 30 minutes or so until the amount of power generation reaches a predetermined amount. Therefore, when the stable power generation device 21 generates power using biomass, the power generation control process execution unit 340 may cause the battery 4 to output power until the amount of power generation of the stable power generation device 21 reaches the predetermined amount.

[0133] The decrease in the amount of power generation is, for example, the difference between the actual power generation value and the day-ahead planned value. The planned value is an example of a target amount. Therefore, the day-ahead planned value is an example of a target amount.

[0134] The control unit 31 may further include a discrimination unit 370 that discriminates whether the planned power generation period is the first period or the second period. Hereinafter, the control unit 31 that includes the discrimination unit 370 will be referred to as a control unit 31a.

[0135] Fig. 13 is a diagram showing an example of the functional configuration of the control unit 31a in the modified example. For ease of explanation, the functional units having the same functions as those shown in Fig. 9 are denoted by the same reference numerals as in Fig. 9 and will not be described below. The control unit 31a differs from the control unit 31 in that it includes a discrimination unit 370 and a pre-processing execution unit 330a instead of the pre-processing execution unit 330. In addition to the processing executed by the pre-processing execution unit 330, the pre-processing execution unit 330a further executes the following discrimination-dependent result processing.

[0136] The discrimination result dependent process is a process for controlling the operation of the stable power generation device 21 so that the first discriminatory power generation amount is less than the second discriminatory power generation amount according to the discrimination result of the discrimination unit 370. The first discriminatory power generation amount is the normal power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 when the discrimination unit 370 discriminates that the planned power generation period is the first period. The second discriminatory power generation amount is the normal power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 when the discrimination unit 370 discriminates that the planned power generation period is the second period.

[0137] The output unit 35 may output information indicating whether the planned power generation period corresponds to the first period or the second period, together with information indicating the normal power generation amount. For example, when the output unit 35 performs display, the output format of the information indicating whether the planned power generation period corresponds to the first period or the second period and the information indicating the normal power generation amount is a display. When the output unit 35 performs display, the output control unit 350 controls the display of the output unit 35, for example. The output unit 35 is an example of a display unit. The output control unit 350 is an example of a display control unit.

[0138] The power generation control device 3 may be implemented using a plurality of information processing devices communicably connected via a network. In this case, each functional unit of the power generation control device 3 may be distributed and implemented in the plurality of information processing devices.

[0139] The natural power generation device 11 and the stable power generation device 21 do not necessarily have to be provided in different power generation facilities. The natural power generation device 11 and the stable power generation device 21 may be provided in a single power generation facility.

[0140] All or part of the functions of the power generation control device 3 may be realized using hardware such as an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), a PLD (Programmable Logic Device), or an FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array). The program may be recorded on a computer-readable recording medium. Examples of computer-readable recording media include portable media such as flexible disks, magneto-optical disks, ROMs, and CD-ROMs, and storage devices such as hard disks built into a computer system. The program may be transmitted via a telecommunications line.

[0141] Although an embodiment of the present invention has been described in detail above with reference to the drawings, the specific configuration is not limited to this embodiment, and designs that do not deviate from the gist of the present invention are also included. [Explanation of symbols]

[0142] 100...power generation system, 1...natural power generation facility, 2...stable power generation facility, 3...power generation control device, 4...battery, 11...natural power generation device, 12...sensor, 13...communication device, 21...stable power generation device, 22...communication device, 31, 31a...control unit, 32...communication unit, 33...input unit, 34...storage unit, 35...output unit, 310...communication control unit, 320...input information acquisition unit, 330, 330a...pre-processing execution unit, 340...power generation control processing execution unit, 350...output control unit, 360...storage control unit, 370...discrimination unit, 91...processor, 92...memory

Claims

1. A natural energy generation device that generates electricity using natural energy; A stable power generation device that generates power more stably than the natural power generation device; A power generation system comprising: a pre-processing execution unit that determines the amount of power generation of the stable power generation device so that, when the amount of power generation of the natural power generation device during a planned power generation period during which power is generated by the natural power generation device and the stable power generation device is less than a planned value, the stable power generation device can generate at least a portion of the power obtained by subtracting the amount of power generation of the natural power generation device from the planned value, the normal power generation amount, which is the power generation amount determined by the pre-processing execution unit, is less than the stable power generation amount, which is the amount obtained by subtracting the amount of actual power generation in the past from the planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device during the planned power generation period of the natural power generation device from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device can generate, The actual amount of power generated in the past by the natural power generation device is less than the planned amount of power generated by the natural power generation device. Power generation system.

2. The amount of power generated by the stable power generation device is determined to be the normal amount of power generation on the day before the scheduled power generation period. The power generation system according to claim 1 .

3. the normal power generation amount corresponding to a first period in which an estimation error, which is an amount obtained by subtracting an actual amount of power generation in the past of the natural power generation device from the planned value, is relatively large, is less than the normal power generation amount corresponding to a second period in which the estimation error is relatively small. The power generation system according to claim 1 or 2.

4. the power generation amount of the stable power generation device determined as the normal power generation amount is changed from the normal power generation amount corresponding to the first period to the normal power generation amount corresponding to the second period at a predetermined transition timing from the first period to the second period; The power generation system according to claim 3 .

5. an output unit that outputs information indicating the normal power generation amount; The power generation system according to claim 1 , further comprising:

6. The stable power generation device generates power using biomass. The power generation system according to any one of claims 1 to 5.

7. Further comprising a power generation device other than the stable power generation device and the natural power generation device, the amount of power generated by the power generation device other than the stabilized power generation device and the natural power generation device is increased when a process for increasing the amount of power generated by the stabilized power generation device is performed a predetermined number of times. The power generation system according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

8. The natural power generation device generates solar power. The power generation system according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

9. a first battery that outputs electric power when the amount of electric power generated by the natural power generation device during the planned power generation period is less than the planned value; The power generation system according to claim 1 , further comprising:

10. a second battery that outputs electric power until the amount of power generated by the stable power generation device reaches a predetermined amount; The power generation system according to claim 1 , further comprising:

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