Abnormality determination device, abnormality determination method, and abnormality determination program

Abstract

To provide an anomaly determination device, an anomaly determination method, and an anomaly determination program for enabling even a novice to easily specify a factor related to an anomaly that may occur in a production facility.SOLUTION: An anomaly determination device according to the present invention includes measuring means that measures a plurality of factors affecting quality of a product produced in a production facility, a control unit, and a storage unit. The storage unit stores: a causal relation model that specifies a causal relation between the factors, based on a feature amount calculated from the factors at the time of producing a normal product in the production facility; a prediction formula that, based on the causal relation model, takes at least one of the feature amounts as an input and takes another one of the feature amounts different from the input as an output; and a prediction range of the output. The control unit is configured to determine whether the feature amount to be the output among the feature amounts calculated from the factors measured in the production process of the production facility is within the prediction range or not.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 4

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to an abnormality determination device, an abnormality determination method, and an abnormality determination program. [Background technology]

[0002] As a method for monitoring the state of equipment, Patent Document 1 discloses a system that effectively utilizes a causal relationship model obtained from manufacturing process data and facilitates verification using domain knowledge. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2018-181158 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] However, the above-mentioned methods require a certain level of domain knowledge regarding phenomena that affect quality. Therefore, they are considered difficult to use for unskilled personnel or for newly occurring phenomena. The present invention has been made to solve this problem, and aims to provide an anomaly detection device, an anomaly detection method, and an anomaly detection program that enable even unskilled personnel to easily identify factors related to anomalies that may occur in production equipment. [Means for solving the problem]

[0005] An anomaly detection device according to a first aspect of the present invention includes a measurement means for measuring a plurality of factors that affect the quality of products produced in production equipment, a control unit, and a memory unit. The memory unit stores a causal relationship model that identifies a causal relationship between the factors based on feature quantities calculated from the factors when normal products are produced in the production equipment, a prediction formula that uses at least one of the feature quantities as an input and another feature quantity different from the input as an output based on the causal relationship model, and a prediction range of the output. The control unit is configured to determine whether the feature quantity that is to be the output, among the feature quantities calculated from the factors measured in a production process of the production equipment, is within the prediction range.

[0006] An abnormality determination device according to a second aspect is the abnormality determination device according to the first aspect, wherein when the feature quantity to be output is outside the prediction range, the abnormality determination device notifies a factor related to the feature quantity.

[0007] An abnormality determination device according to a third aspect is the abnormality determination device according to the second aspect, further configured to calculate a deviation of the feature amount from the prediction range.

[0008] An abnormality determination device according to a fourth aspect is the abnormality determination device according to the third aspect, further comprising a display unit, wherein the control unit is configured to display the notified factor and the deviation degree corresponding to the factor.

[0009] An abnormality determination device according to a fifth aspect is the abnormality determination device according to any one of the first to fourth aspects, wherein the control unit is configured to make the determination using the feature amounts of the measured set of factors.

[0010] An abnormality determination device according to a sixth aspect is an abnormality determination device according to any one of the first to fifth aspects, wherein the prediction range is defined based on the width of variation of a plurality of feature quantities derived from a plurality of normal data (for example, the variation of a prediction formula described below).

[0011] An abnormality determination device according to a seventh aspect is the abnormality determination device according to any one of the first to fifth aspects, and outputs other factors whose values ​​exceed the predicted range based on factor data of a product determined to be abnormal, thereby inferring the cause of the abnormality.

[0012] An anomaly detection method according to an eighth aspect of the present invention includes the steps of: identifying causal relationships between feature values ​​calculated from a plurality of factors that affect the quality of products produced in production equipment, based on feature values ​​obtained when a normal product is produced, and generating a causal relationship model; generating a prediction formula based on the causal relationship model, the prediction formula having at least one feature value as an input and another feature value different from the input as an output; generating a prediction range for the output; calculating the feature values ​​from the factors measured in a production process of the production equipment; and determining whether the calculated feature value that is to be the output is within the prediction range.

[0013] An anomaly detection program according to a ninth aspect of the present invention causes a computer to execute the following steps: identifying causal relationships between a plurality of factors that affect the quality of products produced in production equipment, from feature values ​​calculated from the factors when a normal product is produced, and generating a causal relationship model; generating a prediction formula based on the causal relationship model, the prediction formula using at least one of the feature values ​​as an input and another feature value different from the input as an output; generating a prediction range of the output; calculating the feature values ​​from the factors measured in a production process of the production equipment; and determining whether the calculated feature values, which are to be the output, are within the prediction range. [Effects of the Invention]

[0014] According to the present invention, even an unskilled person can easily identify factors related to abnormalities that may occur in production equipment. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0015] [Figure 1] 1 is a block diagram schematically illustrating an example of a production system to which the present invention is applied. [Figure 2A] FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a joining mechanism included in the production equipment according to one embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 2B] 10A and 10B are diagrams illustrating the operation of the joining mechanism. [Figure 3A] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing a case where an abnormality occurs in the joining mechanism. [Figure 3B] 10A and 10B are diagrams illustrating the operation of a joining mechanism in which an abnormality has occurred. [Figure 4] 1 is a block diagram showing a hardware configuration of an abnormality determination device according to an embodiment of the present invention; [Figure 5] FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing a functional configuration of the abnormality determination device; [Figure 6] This is an example of a causal model. [Figure 7] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of a prediction formula. [Figure 8] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of a prediction range. [Figure 9] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating abnormality determination. [Figure 10] 10 is an example of the deviation displayed on the display device. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0016] An embodiment in which the abnormality determination device according to the present invention is applied to a production facility having a joining mechanism will be described below with reference to the drawings. Fig. 1 is a block diagram of a production system including the abnormality determination device and the production facility according to this embodiment. In this embodiment, the abnormality determination device 1 is configured to determine whether or not an abnormality has occurred in the joining mechanism included in the production facility 3.

[0017] <1. Overview of the joining mechanism> As shown in FIG. 2A, the joining mechanism included in this production equipment 3 has a joining mechanism for joining a cylindrical part 1 and a cylindrical part 2 placed on an installation jig surface. In the initial state, part 1 is inserted into the through-hole of part 2. Part 1 is taller than part 2 and protrudes upward from the through-hole of part 2. From this state, as shown in FIG. 2B, when a pressing member is lowered a predetermined distance by a servo motor or the like to press the top surface of part 1, part 1 undergoes plastic deformation. That is, the vertical length of part 1 shrinks and its radial length increases. As a result, the radially enlarged outer surface of part 1 is joined by frictional force to the inner surface of the through-hole of part 2.

[0018] When the joining mechanism is operating normally, parts 1 and 2 are joined as described above. However, if, for example, as shown in FIG. 3A, the installation jig surfaces of parts 1 and 2 are tilted due to the inclusion of foreign matter, as shown in FIG. 3B, when part 1 is pressed by the pressing member, the pressing member may come into contact with part 2 before reaching its intended lowering distance, causing the pressing to stop. This causes a malfunction (abnormality) in which part 1 cannot be joined to part 2. In this embodiment, how such an abnormality occurs will be described.

[0019] In the joining mechanism of this embodiment, for example, the pressing force (N) of the pressing member, the descent speed (mm / s) of the pressing member, the part height (mm) of part 1 after joining, the joint strength (N) between part 1 and part 2, and the difference in height (mm) between part 1 and part 2 after joining, i.e., the part step (mm), are used as factors, and these are extracted from the joining mechanism as operating status data. Of these, the pressing force, part height, and pressing force are predetermined and input into a computer such as a PLC that controls the operation of the joining mechanism. Meanwhile, the descent time, joint strength, and part step are measured in real time or afterward in the joining mechanism and transmitted to the abnormality determination device 1 as operating status data. For this reason, the joining mechanism is provided with sensors or the like for measuring each factor. Note that if each factor is measured afterward, sensors or the like may not be provided in the joining mechanism.

[0020] <2. Abnormality determination device> <2-1. Hardware configuration> Next, an example of the hardware configuration of the abnormality determination device 1 according to this embodiment will be described. Fig. 4 is a block diagram showing the hardware configuration of the abnormality determination device. As shown in Fig. 4, the abnormality determination device 1 is a computer to which a control unit 11, a storage unit 12, a communication interface 13, an external interface 14, an input device 15, and a drive 16 are electrically connected.

[0021] The control unit 11 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit), RAM (Random Access Memory), ROM (Read Only Memory), etc., and controls each component in accordance with information processing. The storage unit 12 is an auxiliary storage device such as a hard disk drive or a solid state drive, and stores a program 121 executed by the control unit 11, a causal relationship model 122, a prediction formula 123, a prediction range 124, prediction data 125, operating state data 126, etc.

[0022] The program 121 is a program for calculating feature quantities from operational status data extracted from the production equipment 3, generating a causal relationship model between factors from these feature quantities, and determining abnormalities.

[0023] The feature quantities that are the targets of the causal relationship model 122 are based on factors that affect the quality of products produced by the joining mechanism, and the causal relationships between factors when products are produced normally are constructed as a causal relationship model. In this abnormality determination device 1, the causal relationship model 122 is generated based on the feature quantities calculated from the above-mentioned operating state data, but it is also possible to store a causal relationship model that has been generated in advance in an external device.

[0024] The prediction formula 123 is used to calculate feature quantities other than the input from the input feature quantities among the obtained feature quantities, and is generated based on the causal relationship model 122. The prediction range 124 statistically defines the range of output obtained from the prediction formula 123. The prediction data 125 is data when an abnormality occurs, and is data indicating factors containing the abnormality, feature quantities, and the degree of deviation of the feature quantities from the prediction range 124. Furthermore, the operating status data 126 is operating status data transmitted from the production equipment 3, as described above.

[0025] The communication interface 13 is, for example, a wired LAN (Local Area Network) module, a wireless LAN module, or the like, and is an interface for performing wired or wireless communication. That is, the communication interface 13 is an example of a communication unit configured to communicate with other devices. The abnormality determination device 1 of this embodiment is connected to the production equipment 3 via the communication interface 13.

[0026] The external interface 14 is an interface for connecting to an external device, and is configured appropriately depending on the external device to be connected. In this embodiment, the external interface 14 is connected to the display device 2. The display device 2 may be a known liquid crystal display, a touch panel display, or the like.

[0027] The input device 15 is a device for inputting data, such as a mouse or keyboard.

[0028] The drive 16 is, for example, a CD (Compact Disk) drive, a DVD (Digital Versatile Disk) drive, or the like, and is a device for reading a program stored in a storage medium 17. The type of the drive 16 may be selected appropriately depending on the type of the storage medium 17. Note that at least a part of the various data 122 to 126 including the program 121 stored in the storage unit may be stored in this storage medium 17.

[0029] Storage medium 17 is a medium that stores information such as a program by electrical, magnetic, optical, mechanical, or chemical action so that the information can be read by a computer or other device, machine, etc. In FIG. 4, a disk-type storage medium such as a CD or DVD is shown as an example of storage medium 17. However, the type of storage medium 17 is not limited to disk-type, and may be other types of storage medium. Examples of storage media other than disk-type include semiconductor memories such as flash memories.

[0030] It should be noted that the specific hardware configuration of the abnormality determination device 1 can be omitted, replaced, or added as appropriate depending on the embodiment. For example, the control unit 11 may include multiple processors. The abnormality determination device 1 may be configured with multiple information processing devices. Furthermore, the abnormality determination device 1 may be an information processing device designed specifically for the service provided, or a general-purpose server device or the like.

[0031] <2-2. Functional configuration and abnormality detection> Next, the functional configuration (software configuration) of the abnormality determination device 1 will be described. Fig. 5 shows an example of the functional configuration of the abnormality determination device 1 according to this embodiment. The control unit 11 of the abnormality determination device 1 loads a program 121 stored in the storage unit 12 onto a RAM. The control unit 11 then interprets and executes the program 121 loaded onto the RAM using a CPU to control each component. As a result, as shown in Fig. 5, the abnormality determination device 1 according to this embodiment functions as a computer including a feature amount acquisition unit 111, a model construction unit 112, an abnormality determination unit 113, and a deviation calculation unit 114.

[0032] <2-2-1. Acquiring feature quantities> The feature acquisition unit 111 acquires feature values ​​calculated from operation status data 126 indicating the operation status of the production equipment 3 for each of a normal state in which the joining mechanism has properly joined parts 1 and 2, and an abnormal state in which the parts are not properly joined. However, while data extracted at multiple timings is used as the normal operation status data 126, data extracted at one or more timings when an abnormality is thought to have occurred is used as the abnormal operation status data. The model construction unit 112 then constructs a causal relationship model 122 indicating the causal relationships between factors based on a predetermined algorithm that derives the relevance of each feature when parts 1 and 2 are joined from the acquired normal feature values.

[0033] For example, the control unit 11 acquires the feature quantities as follows. First, the control unit 11 divides the collected motion status data 126 into frames to define a processing range for calculating the feature quantities. For example, the control unit 11 may divide the motion status data 126 into frames of a certain length of time. However, the joining mechanism does not necessarily operate at regular time intervals. Therefore, if the motion status data 126 is divided into frames of a certain length of time, the operation of the joining mechanism reflected in each frame may be out of sync.

[0034] Therefore, in this embodiment, the control unit 11 divides the operation status data 126 into frames for each takt time. The takt time is the time required to produce a predetermined number of products, i.e., to join a predetermined number of parts 1 and 2. This takt time can be determined based on signals that control the joining mechanism, such as control signals that control the operation of each servo motor of the joining mechanism. Note that the type of control signal is not particularly limited as long as it is a signal that can be used to control the joining mechanism.

[0035] Next, the control unit 11 calculates the value of the feature amount from each frame of the operation state data 126. For example, when the operation state data 126 is quantitative data such as the above (fall time, bonding strength, and component step), the control unit 11 may calculate, as the feature amount, the amplitude, maximum value, minimum value, average value, variance, standard deviation, autocorrelation coefficient, maximum value of the power spectrum obtained by Fourier transform, skewness, kurtosis, etc. within the frame.

[0036] Furthermore, the feature amount may be derived not only from a single piece of motion state data 126 but also from multiple pieces of motion state data 126. For example, the control unit 11 may calculate a cross-correlation coefficient, ratio, difference, amount of synchronization deviation, distance, etc. between corresponding frames of the motion state data 126 as the feature amount.

[0037] In this way, the control unit 11 can acquire, under normal conditions, the values ​​of a plurality of types of feature quantities calculated from the operation status data 126. In addition, the feature quantities can also be calculated by further performing preprocessing such as normalization and outlier removal on the values ​​obtained as described above.

[0038] <2-2-2. Building a causal model> The model construction unit 112 can handle each acquired feature amount as a random variable, that is, set each acquired feature amount to each node, and construct a causal relationship model, for example, as follows.

[0039] (1) Building a graphical model (1-1) A hierarchical structure is specified based on the chronological order in which each feature occurs. (1-2) Based on the hierarchical structure, a directed graph connecting each node with a directed line is determined based on the partial correlation coefficient and correlation error. There are no particular restrictions on how the directed line is selected; there are methods for selecting it based on the goodness-of-fit index GFI or SRMR, and there are also methods for selecting it by focusing only on the partial correlation coefficient, etc.

[0040] (2) Formulation by structural equation modeling (2-1) Each relational equation of the causal structure acquired in (1-2) is learned based on the data. If it is linear, multiple regression can be used, and if it is nonlinear, SVR (support vector regression) can be used. (2-2) If the fit is not good, you may consider taking the data into logarithms or adding interactions.

[0041] The method for constructing the causal relationship model is not limited to this. For example, the causal relationships between factors can be derived by constructing a Bayesian network. A known method may be used to construct the Bayesian network. For example, a structural learning algorithm such as a greedy search algorithm, a stingy search algorithm, or an exhaustive search method can be used to construct the Bayesian network. Evaluation criteria for the constructed Bayesian network include AIC (Akaike's Information Criterion), C4.5, CHM (Cooper Herskovits Measure), MDL (Minimum Description Length), and ML (Maximum Likelihood). When the learning data (operational status data 126) used to construct the Bayesian network contains missing values, a pairwise method, a listwise method, or the like can be used.

[0042] 6 shows a causal relationship model for the lowering speed, component height, pressing force, lowering time, joint strength, and component step height in the joining mechanism of this embodiment. This causal relationship model shows that the lowering speed and component height affect the lowering time, and the lowering time and pressing force affect the joint strength. In other words, in this causal relationship model, the lowering speed, component height, and pressing force are control factors (inputs), and based on these, the lowering time becomes the intermediate response (output), and the joint strength and component step height become the final response (output).

[0043] <2-2-3. Construction of prediction formula> Next, the model construction unit 112 constructs prediction equations for the intermediate and final responses from the causal relationship model constructed as described above. In this embodiment, a prediction equation is constructed to calculate the descent time from the part height and descent speed in order to predict an abnormality such as that shown in FIG. 3B during joining of parts 1 and 2. Such a prediction equation can be constructed using multiple regression analysis, support vector machine (SVM), or the like, based on the obtained causal relationship model. In this embodiment, the following equation (1), for example, can be constructed as the prediction equation. Falling time = 0.52 * component height - 0.7 * falling speed + 0.03 (1)

[0044] This prediction formula is illustrated in Figure 7. In addition to this, prediction formulas for joint strength and part step height can also be constructed. In other words, prediction formulas can be constructed for all intermediate and final responses.

[0045] <2-2-4. Definition of forecast range> Next, the statistical distribution of normal descent times is calculated. This becomes the prediction range. For example, the prediction interval can be defined based on the distribution (confidence interval) that can be defined from the obtained prediction formula and a distribution that takes into account data variability (e.g., 3σ). Here, a 95% prediction interval is used as an example. For example, the predicted value of the descent time when the component height is 0.6 mm and the descent speed is 0.03 mm / s is 0.321 s according to the above prediction formula (1), so the 95% prediction interval is 0.163 to 0.479. Figure 8 shows this prediction range. Similarly, prediction ranges can be defined for all intermediate and final responses (joint strength and component step height in this embodiment). In this way, the prediction range can be defined as a set of the variability of the prediction formula and the variability of the data.

[0046] <2-2-5. Determining Abnormalities> Next, the abnormality determination unit 113 determines whether an abnormality exists based on feature quantities calculated from the operation status data extracted when an abnormality is suspected in the joining mechanism. For example, to determine whether the descent time is abnormal, it determines whether the descent speed corresponding to the obtained component height and descent speed falls within the prediction range specified as above. For example, as shown in FIG. 9, if the actual measured descent time is 0.085 seconds when the component height is 0.6 mm and the descent speed is 0.03 mm / s, this descent time is outside the prediction range, and therefore it is determined that an abnormality has occurred. Furthermore, as described above, abnormality determination is also performed for all intermediate and final responses (joint strength and component step in this embodiment). In this way, abnormality determination can be performed based on a single point of data.

[0047] <2-2-6. Calculation of deviation> Next, in order to determine the degree of abnormality occurring for each feature, the deviation calculation unit 114 calculates the deviation. For example, the deviation can be calculated from the ratio of the difference from the predicted value. That is, from the above-mentioned numerical values, the deviation can be calculated as (predicted value (0.321) - actual value (0.085)) / predicted value (0.321) = -0.74. Similarly, the deviation is calculated when it is determined that there is an abnormality in the bonding strength. The deviations calculated in this way can be displayed on the display device 2 as a list, for example, as shown in FIG. 10.

[0048] As described above, if an abnormality is determined and it is confirmed that an abnormality has occurred, the cause of the abnormality can be investigated based on this. For example, if the fall time is shorter than the predicted value as described above, an abnormality such as that shown in Figure 3 can be considered. Note that even if the actual measured value is outside the predicted range, it is not immediately determined to be an abnormality, but it can also be determined based on the degree of deviation.

[0049] <3. Features> (1) Because the causal relationship model, prediction formula, and prediction range are constructed as described above, even non-experts can easily identify factors related to abnormalities that may occur in production equipment.

[0050] (2) According to this embodiment, since the determination of an abnormality is performed by constructing a prediction range, it is possible to determine an abnormality without constructing, for example, a causal relationship model in the event of an abnormality. That is, as described above, the occurrence of an abnormality can be determined by extracting feature quantities when an abnormality is thought to have occurred. Therefore, for example, it is not necessary to stop the production equipment 3 in order to acquire data for constructing a causal relationship model in the event of an abnormality. In particular, in this embodiment, an abnormality can be determined even using data (one point of data) extracted at a timing when an abnormality is thought to have occurred, thereby reducing the cost and load required for determining an abnormality.

[0051] (3) When an abnormality is suspected, the degree of deviation of each feature is calculated, making it easy to determine the extent of the abnormality. In addition, by displaying the deviation along with the intermediate or final response, the occurrence of an abnormality can be easily visually confirmed.

[0052] <4. Modifications> Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described above in detail, the above description is merely an example of the present invention in every respect. It goes without saying that various improvements and modifications can be made without departing from the scope of the present invention. For example, the following modifications are possible. Note that, in the following, the same reference numerals are used for components similar to those in the above embodiment, and descriptions of the same points as those in the above embodiment are omitted where appropriate. The following modifications can be combined as appropriate.

[0053] <4-1> In the above embodiment, the determination of an abnormality that occurs in the process of joining the parts 1 and 2 is taken as an example, but it goes without saying that this is merely an example and can be applied to other processes.

[0054] <4-2> In the above embodiment, quantitative data is used as the operation status data, and feature amounts are calculated based on this data, but for example, the operation status data 126 can also be qualitative data such as the on / off status of a sensor. That is, the "on" time, "off" time, duty ratio, number of "on" times, number of "off" times, etc. within each frame may be calculated as feature amounts.

[0055] <4-3> The processes from collection of the operating state data 126 to calculation of the value of the feature amount may be performed not by the abnormality determination device 1 but by the production equipment 3 or various devices that control it.

[0056] <4-4> In the above embodiment, when an abnormality is suspected, the abnormality is judged from one set (one point) of feature amounts, but it is possible to judge the abnormality by calculating feature amounts from the operation status data 126 extracted at multiple timings and using these in a comprehensive manner. For example, it is possible to use an average of feature amounts calculated from multiple timings.

[0057] <4-5> In the above embodiment, the judgment result is displayed on the display device 2, but the judgment result can also be notified by a method other than displaying it on the display device 2. For example, the occurrence of an abnormality can be notified by an audio or light alert. Also, it is not always necessary to notify the deviation degree, and it is possible to notify only the factor in which an abnormality occurred, or to perform only the judgment and then review the judgment result after the fact, such as after production. [Explanation of symbols]

[0058] 1...Abnormality determination device, 11...Control unit 12...Storage section, 3...Production equipment

Claims

1. a measuring means for measuring a plurality of factors that affect the quality of products produced in the production facility; A control unit; A memory unit; Equipped with The storage unit a causal relationship model that identifies a causal relationship between the factors based on feature values ​​calculated from the factors when a normal product is produced in the production facility; and a prediction formula that uses at least one of the feature quantities as an input and another feature quantity different from the input as an output based on the causal relationship model; a predicted range of the output; and Remember, The control unit an anomaly determination device configured to determine whether or not the feature quantity to be output, among the feature quantities calculated from the factors measured in the production process of the production equipment, is within the prediction range.

2. The control unit The abnormality determination device according to claim 1 , further comprising: a notification of a factor related to the output feature quantity when the output feature quantity is outside the prediction range.

3. The abnormality determination device according to claim 2 , further comprising: a calculation unit for calculating a deviation of the characteristic amount from the predicted range.

4. The control unit The abnormality determination device according to claim 3 , further comprising: a display unit configured to display the notified factor and the deviation corresponding to the factor.

5. The control unit The abnormality determination device according to claim 1 , wherein the determination is made using the feature quantities of the set of factors that have been measured.

6. The abnormality determination device according to claim 1 , wherein the prediction range is defined based on a range of variation of a plurality of feature quantities derived from a plurality of normal data.

7. The abnormality determination device according to claim 1 , further comprising: outputting, based on the factor in the product determined to be abnormal, other factors whose values ​​exceed the predicted range.

8. a step of identifying a causal relationship between a plurality of factors that affect the quality of a product produced in a production facility from the feature values ​​calculated from the feature values ​​when a normal product is produced, and generating a causal relationship model; generating a prediction formula based on the causal relationship model, the prediction formula having at least one of the feature quantities as an input and another feature quantity different from the input as an output; generating a forecast range for said output; calculating the feature amount from the factors measured in the production process of the production equipment; determining whether or not the feature value to be output, among the calculated feature values, is within the predicted range; The abnormality determination method includes:

9. On the computer, a step of identifying a causal relationship between a plurality of factors that affect the quality of a product produced in a production facility from the feature values ​​calculated from the feature values ​​when a normal product is produced, and generating a causal relationship model; generating a prediction formula based on the causal relationship model, the prediction formula having at least one of the feature quantities as an input and another feature quantity different from the input as an output; generating a forecast range for said output; calculating the feature amount from the factors measured in the production process of the production equipment; determining whether or not the feature value to be output, among the calculated feature values, is within the predicted range; An abnormality detection program that executes the above.

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