Earthquake prediction methods

Abstract

Provided is an earthquake prediction method that predicts a specific period in which there is a high possibility of the occurrence of an earthquake in a specific region on the earth, on the basis of information pertaining to a prediction target seismic intensity or magnitude.　An earthquake prediction method according to the present invention: narrows a prediction target region; uses, for example, specific coordinates within the field of view in the prediction target region, so as to define, as a range in which an earthquake may occur, a range which includes an error of a regression formula and a gravitational-related numerical value at the time of the occurrence of a past earthquake for each prediction target seismic intensity; and determines that, in a future year, date, and time in which the calculation result obtained by a similar method corresponds to the definition, an earthquake may occur in the prediction target region at the prediction target seismic intensity with the probability indicated in the result.

Description

Technical Field

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[0001] The present invention relates to a method for earthquake prediction.

Background Art

[0002] <0000​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ [Non-Patent Document 1] Shigeo Konno, Junko Ohashi, and Noboru Kojima, "Correlation between Earthquake Occurrence in the Japanese Archipelago and the Alignment of the Moon and the Sun," Koyama Technical High School Research Bulletin, No. 31 (1999), 123-132. [Overview of the project] [Problems that the invention aims to solve]

[0009] However, it is unclear whether earthquakes actually occur because plates made of soil and rock spring up, as described in Patent Document 1.

[0010] Furthermore, seismic waves consist of P-waves and S-waves, with P-waves traveling faster than S-waves. On the other hand, it is the S-waves, which arrive later, that primarily cause damage from strong shaking. For this reason, earthquake prediction methods are being used that utilize the difference in the speed of seismic wave propagation to detect the P-waves that arrive first, thereby alerting people to the impending danger before the S-waves arrive. However, the difference in arrival time between P-waves and S-waves is only a few seconds. Therefore, this is insufficient time to take countermeasures against an earthquake.

[0011] The objective of this invention is to provide an earthquake prediction method that predicts a specific period of time during which an earthquake of a desired intensity (seismic intensity or magnitude) is likely to occur in a particular region of the Earth. [Means for solving the problem]

[0012] To solve the above problems, the earthquake prediction method of the present invention narrows down the prediction target area and, using specific coordinates in the field of view within the prediction target area, defines the range including the error between the gravitational force-related values ​​and the regression equation at past earthquake occurrences as the range in which an earthquake is likely to occur, for each predicted seismic intensity. In the future, if the calculation results obtained by a similar method correspond to the above definition, it is assumed that there is a possibility of an earthquake occurring in the prediction target area at the predicted seismic intensity with the probability indicated in the result for the year and date. [Effects of the Invention]

[0013] According to the present invention, it is possible to provide an earthquake prediction method for predicting a specific period with a high probability of earthquake occurrence of a desired earthquake intensity (seismic intensity or magnitude) in a specific region on the earth.

Brief Description of the Drawings

[0014] [Figure 1] It is a diagram showing the results of examining the positional relationship among the sun, the earth, and the moon when an earthquake of seismic intensity 6 or higher occurs in Japan. [Figure 2] It is a diagram grouping the positions of the earth with respect to the sun when an earthquake of seismic intensity 6 or higher occurs in Japan shown in FIG. 1. [Figure 3] It is a diagram showing the range of the position of the moon with respect to the earth when the earth shown in FIG. 1 is moved in the X direction and the Y direction without rotation and made to coincide at one place. [Figure 4] It is a diagram showing the basic concept of the present invention. [Figure 5] It is a diagram explaining the correlation between the tidal force (X) of the moon and the tidal force (Y) of the sun. [Figure 6] It is a diagram explaining the force on the vertical axis. [Figure 7] It is a diagram explaining the force on the horizontal axis. [Figure 8] It is a flowchart showing the earthquake prediction method of the present invention. [Figure 9] It is a graph explaining decision trees 1 and 2. [Figure 10] It is a diagram explaining decision trees 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8. [Figure 11] It is the expression of FIG. 10 in absolute values. [Figure 12] It is a diagram explaining decision trees 9, 10, 11, and 12. [Figure 13] It is a diagram explaining decision tree 13. [Figure 14] It is a diagram explaining decision tree 14. [Figure 15] It is a diagram explaining decision trees 15 and 16. [Figure 16]Description of decision tree 17 (exclusive for seismic intensity 7 regression formula). [Figure 17] It is a diagram representing the correlation relationship between seismic intensity, month at the time of earthquake occurrence, and solar azimuth for earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 5 - weak or higher in dot - group data. [Figure 18] It is the azimuthal locus of the moon and the sun by lunar age. [Figure 19] It is a regression formula for seismic intensity 6 - weak. [Figure 20] It is a diagram explaining decision tree 18 (6.5). [Figure 21] It is a regression formula for seismic intensity 7. [Figure 22] It is a diagram explaining decision trees 19 and 20. [Figure 23] It is a diagram explaining the regression formulas for seismic intensity 6 - strong and seismic intensity 7. [Figure 24] It is a diagram explaining decision tree 21 and also an explanation of the regression formulas Y10, Y11, Y12 for seismic intensity 6 - strong. It is different from Figure 23. [Figure 25] It is a diagram for obtaining the regression formula for seismic intensity 7. [Figure 26] It is a diagram explaining decision trees 22 to 25. (a) explains decision tree 22, (b) explains decision tree 23, (c) explains decision tree 24, and (d) explains decision tree 25. [Figure 27] It is a diagram explaining decision trees 26 to 三十. (a) explains decision tree 25, (b) explains decision tree 27A, (c) explains decision tree 28A, (d) explains decision tree 29A, and (e) explains decision tree 30. [Figure 28] It is a diagram explaining decision trees 31 to 34. (a) explains decision tree 31, (b) explains decision tree 32, (c) explains decision tree 33, and (d) explains decision tree 34. [Figure 29] It is a diagram explaining decision trees 35 to 38. (a) explains decision tree 35, (b) explains decision tree 36, (c) explains decision tree 37, and (d) explains decision tree 38. [Figure 30] It is a diagram explaining decision tree 39. [Figure 31]These are diagrams illustrating decision trees 40 through 43, with (a) illustrating decision tree 40, (b) illustrating decision tree 41, (c) illustrating decision tree 42, and (d) illustrating decision tree 43. [Figure 32] This is a diagram explaining decision tree 44. [Figure 33] These are diagrams illustrating decision trees 45 through 48, with (a) illustrating decision tree 45, (b) illustrating decision tree 46, (c) illustrating decision tree 47, and (d) illustrating decision tree 48. [Figure 34] These are diagrams illustrating decision trees 50 and 51, with (a) illustrating decision tree 50 and (b) illustrating decision tree 51. [Figure 35] This is a diagram explaining decision tree 53. [Figure 36] This is a diagram explaining decision tree 55. [Figure 37] This is a diagram explaining decision tree 57. [Figure 38] This is a diagram explaining decision tree 59. [Figure 39] This is a diagram explaining decision tree 63. [Figure 40] This is a diagram explaining decision tree 64. [Figure 41] This is a diagram explaining decision tree 66. [Figure 42] This is a diagram explaining decision tree 68. [Figure 43] This is a diagram explaining decision tree 72. [Figure 44] These are diagrams illustrating decision trees 73 through 76, with (a) illustrating decision tree 73, (b) illustrating decision tree 74, (c) illustrating decision tree 75, and (d) illustrating decision tree 76. [Figure 45] This is a diagram explaining decision tree 77. [Figure 46] This is a diagram explaining decision tree 78. [Figure 47] This is a diagram explaining decision tree 79. [Figure 48] This is a diagram explaining decision tree 80. [Figure 49] This is a diagram illustrating decision tree 81. [Figure 50] This is a diagram illustrating decision tree 82. [Figure 51] This is a diagram explaining decision tree 83. [Figure 52] This is a diagram explaining decision tree 84. [Figure 53] This is an illustrative diagram of the earthquake prediction process. [Figure 54] This table explains the prediction and actual results for an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6-minus. [Figure 55] This table explains the prediction and actual results for an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6-minus. [Figure 56] This diagram explains the prediction and actual result of an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6+. [Figure 57] This diagram explains the prediction and result of an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 7. [Figure 58] This diagram compares scalars based on the differences in statistical methods used for seismic intensity and magnitude. [Figure 59] This diagram compares the gravitational force on the vertical axis based on the differences in statistical methods used for seismic intensity and magnitude. [Figure 60] This diagram compares the gravitational force on the horizontal axis based on the differences in statistical methods used for seismic intensity and magnitude. [Figure 61] This table shows statistics on the number of earthquakes by the direction of the sun and moon at the time of the earthquake. Figure 61(a) shows earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 5 or higher, and Figure 61(b) shows earthquakes with a magnitude of 5 or higher. [Figure 62] This diagram shows how to distinguish between the present application and Non-Patent Document 1, where (a) is the present application and (b) is Non-Patent Document 1. [Figure 63] This is a diagram illustrating bar graphs in non-patent literature. [Modes for carrying out the invention]

[0015] 1. Basic Concept of the Invention The inventor of this application hypothesized that external forces on Earth, namely from other celestial bodies such as gravity and tidal forces, are related to earthquakes occurring on Earth, based on the law of inertia, which states that "unless an external force is applied, an object will maintain a constant motion or remain at rest," and the tidal forces of the moon causing tides.

[0016] First, we investigated the relative positions of the Sun, Earth, and Moon during earthquakes of magnitude 6 or higher in Japan between January 1, 1995, and December 31, 2022. Figure 1 shows the results. In the figure, a straight line is drawn passing through the Earth's aphelion (July 2) and perihelion (January 2), with the aphelion side representing the positive direction of the X-axis in the XY coordinate system and the perihelion (January 2) side representing the negative direction of the X-axis in the XY coordinate system. Furthermore, with the Sun as the center, July 2 is set to 0° and January 2 to 180°.

[0017] This allows us to convert the astronomical directions of related items into mathematical directions (angles), and by using fixed coordinates, we can use trigonometric functions as coefficients and numerically compare the strength of forces.

[0018] The symbols used to represent the Earth in the diagram are explained below. 1 represents the Earth's position at the time of the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake on January 17, 1995. 2 represents the Earth's position during the Tottori Prefecture Western Earthquake on October 6, 2000. 3 represents the Earth's position during the Miyagi Prefecture Northern Earthquake on July 26, 2003. 4-6 represents the Earth's position during the Niigata Prefecture Chuetsu Earthquake on October 23, 2004. 7 represents the Earth's position during the Noto Peninsula earthquake on March 25, 2007. 8 represents the Earth's position during the Niigata-Joetsu-Chuetsu Offshore Earthquake on July 16, 2007. 9 represents the Earth's position during the Iwate-Miyagi Inland Earthquake on June 14, 2008. 10-13 represents the Earth's position during the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 12, and 15, 2011. 14 represents the Earth's position during the Miyagi Prefecture offshore earthquake on April 7, 2011. 15-18 represents the Earth's position during the Kumamoto earthquake on April 14, 15, and 16, 2016. 19 represents the Earth's position during the Hokkaido Eastern Iburi Earthquake on September 6, 2018. 20 represents the Earth's position during the Yamagata Prefecture offshore earthquake on June 18, 2019. 21 represents the Earth's position during the Fukushima offshore earthquake on February 13, 2021. 22 represents the Earth's position during the Fukushima offshore earthquake on March 16, 2022.

[0019] The Earth's outer circumference at each date and time, indicated by a symbol, shows the Moon's position (direction) at the time of the earthquake. Black circles indicate the Moon's position when an earthquake of magnitude 7 occurred, and white circles indicate the Moon's position when an earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher occurred.

[0020] (1) Relationship between the Earth's position relative to the Sun and earthquakes Figure 2 is a diagram that groups the Earth's position relative to the Sun when earthquakes of magnitude 6 or higher occur in Japan, as shown in Figure 1. As shown in Figure 2, there is a tendency for earthquakes of magnitude 6 or higher to occur frequently in Japan around 0° (Group A, enclosed by shaded lines in the figure), around 90° (Group B), around 180° (Group C), and especially around 270° (Group D).

[0021] (2) Relationship between the position of the Moon relative to the Earth and earthquakes Figure 3 shows the range of the Moon's position relative to the Earth when the Earth shown in Figure 1 is moved in the X and Y directions without rotating and brought to a single point. In Figure 3, axis X1 is parallel to axis X in Figure 1, and axis Y1 is parallel to axis Y in Figure 1. According to Figure 3, earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 6 or higher that occur in Japan tend to occur when the Moon's position is in the positive and negative directions of the X axis, especially in the negative X direction.

[0022] (3) Relationship with celestial bodies in the solar system As described above, there is a tendency for earthquakes to occur more frequently when the Earth is in a certain relationship with the Sun and Moon. From this, the hypothesis that external forces to the Earth, that is, the gravitational force of celestial bodies other than Earth, are related to earthquakes occurring on Earth appears to be correct.

[0023] The basic concept of this invention is shown in Figure 4. In Figure 4, the Earth is represented as a butter roll, and the force acting on the Earth is represented as the force of pulling it with a hand. For example, with a force in only one direction, as in Figure 4(a), it is impossible to tear a butter roll floating in the air by pulling it. To tear a butter roll floating in the air, two or more forces corresponding to action and reaction, as in Figure 4(b), are required. When forces from multiple directions are applied to the butter roll, as shown in Figure 4(c), it is not as simple as with two forces, and it is thought that the butter roll becomes easier to tear under certain conditions.

[0024] Therefore, in order to find these specific conditions, we extracted from past earthquake occurrences the conditions under which the gravitational pull of planets such as the Sun, Moon, Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn—which are presumed to have a significant gravitational influence on Earth—becomes more likely to break apart (making earthquakes more likely).

[0025] Then, we hypothesized that when the gravitational force (≒tidal force) exerted on Earth by celestial bodies within the solar system, which changes more slowly compared to tidal forces, decreases, the force of Earth's gravitational contraction increases, raising the internal pressure of the Earth and making it unstable. When certain conditions are met, and the tidal force, which changes moment by moment due to the Earth's rotation, is also present, earthquakes are more likely to occur.

[0026] 2. Points to confirm for understanding this application Figure 5 shows the correlation between lunar tidal force (X-axis) and solar tidal force (Y-axis) at different seismic intensities during an earthquake. In Figure 5, since it represents tidal force, it is a vector only on the vertical axis of the Earth's surface near the epicenter (Note: the unit is x10^18, which is 1 / 10,000th of the sun's gravitational pull). The meaning of the graph is that, similar to gravity, it is immediately clear that tidal forces occur when they are small (near the origin of the graph), and this tendency is stronger for earthquakes with greater seismic intensity.

[0027] 2-1. The difference between gravity and tidal force (Regarding the force on the vertical axis) Figure 6 illustrates the force along the vertical axis. In the diagram, A represents the gravitational force A from the center of the Earth to the center of celestial body A, and B represents the gravitational force B from the Earth's surface to the center of celestial body A. There is a difference in gravitational force A from the Earth's center to the center of celestial body A and gravitational force B from the Earth's surface to the center of celestial body A due to the difference in distance. The gravitational force at the Earth's surface is stronger the closer the distance, so a force acts to pull the Earth away from its center, causing phenomena such as high tides. This is the tidal force.

[0028] However, in this specification, the conditions during earthquakes of magnitude 6 or higher are limited to those when the gravitational and tidal forces of other celestial bodies are weak, as shown in Figure 5. Therefore, it can be seen that the force that increases the influence on the Earth's surface along the vertical axis is not the tidal force but the Earth's own gravitational force, that is, "gravity" (a force in the opposite direction to the tidal force). (More precisely, it is due to the Earth's own gravity, the centrifugal force at different latitudes, and the gravitational force of other celestial bodies.) Reference: https: / / www.s-yamaga.jp / nanimono / taikitoumi / choseki.html

[0029] (Regarding the force on the horizontal axis) Figure 7 illustrates the force along the horizontal axis. Typically, earthquake epicenters are overwhelmingly located at shallow depths of 0 to 50 km below the Earth's surface. In other words, the epicenter is practically a single point on the Earth's surface, and the lack of distance difference between calculation points indicates that the force the Earth experiences from celestial bodies is "gravitational force" and not tidal force (e.g., low tide).

[0030] (capture) However, in the specification, the amount of movement due to the earthquake before it occurs, i.e., the mass of the plate's cross-sectional area and volume, is unknown, so the calculation is performed for the entire Earth, and the result of this gravitational force calculation does not directly affect only a part of the plate at the epicenter. Therefore, the set of gravity-related values ​​described later are environmental values ​​that apply to the entire Earth, and are considered to correspond to coefficients that are, for example, 100 to 10,000 times greater than the values ​​that actually affect the cross-sectional area of ​​that plate.

[0031] 2-2. Decision Tree (DT) Generally, the term "parameter" is used to refer to selection criteria for making decisions, but in statistics, parameters refer to the coefficients and intercepts of a calculation formula that include variables. Therefore, following statistical principles, we will use the term "decision tree" here. As an example of a decision tree, if we want to determine the gender of a passerby, we would need to consider factors such as (1) whether they are wearing makeup, (2) whether they are wearing slim-fitting shoes, (3) whether they are wearing a skirt, etc. Of course, a single decision tree cannot determine this, but if multiple criteria are met, the probability of them being female increases. Each of these (1), (2), and (3) decision items is called a decision tree, and by finding many decision trees with better content, we can predict the gender with a certain degree of accuracy.

[0032] The earthquake prediction method of the present invention predicts earthquakes using multiple decision trees based on astronomical information that shows the relationship between the Earth and other celestial bodies. In this embodiment, 103 decision trees are used. For the sake of clarity in the explanation, decision trees are denoted as "DT" as appropriate. For example, decision tree 1 is denoted as "DT1" and decision tree 2 is denoted as "DT2".

[0033] 2-3. Random Forest This method involves creating many decision trees and generating numerous decision criteria. In this application, a maximum of 103 decision trees were created.

[0034] 2-4. Support Vector Machines This method involves creating boundaries in a decision tree when statistical point cloud data clusters are observable. These boundaries might be based on whether the calculation result is less than 10 or greater than 10, or whether it is greater than or less than Y=3X+6, and one of these boundaries is considered correct, while the other is considered incorrect.

[0035] 2-5. Difference between seismic intensity and magnitude Magnitude is an estimate (integral) of the energy used when the Earth's crust moves during an earthquake, while seismic intensity is the distance traveled within a certain time period and indicates acceleration or velocity (derivative); they are not the same thing. Furthermore, the inaccuracy of magnitude is generally recognized.

[0036] 2-6. Differences in units between the moon and the sun This application makes extensive use of graphs for visual clarity, but please note that the X-axis often represents the moon and the Y-axis represents the sun. Since the units are 10^20 for the moon's gravitational pull and 10^22 for the sun's gravitational pull, the X:Y ratio in the graphs should be 1:100. Using the same ratio would result in a straight line, making the correlation invisible.

[0037] Unit omission: The formula for calculating the gravitational force F is F = GMm / R^2. Universal gravitational constant: G=6.67·10^-11·m^3·kg^-1·s^-2, Let celestial body 1 be Mkg, celestial body 2 be mkg, and the distance between the two points be Rm. Units will be omitted from now on.

[0038] 3. Outline of the present application This application concerns earthquake prediction, and specifically discusses the possibility of predicting large-scale earthquakes of magnitude 6 (weak), magnitude 6 (strong), and magnitude 7 in Japan. The prediction algorithm creates a random forest (many decision trees), and each decision tree uses a machine learning technique called a support vector machine (setting boundaries, one being correct and the other incorrect). However, because the sample size (number of earthquakes) was small, the AI ​​could not obtain results, so the data was processed by a human using spreadsheet software.

[0039] Regarding the contents of the decision trees: Inspired by the law of inertia, which states that "unless some force is applied, an object will remain at rest or continue in the same motion," the authors hypothesized that the force of the changing gravitational pull of celestial bodies within the solar system might be that "some force." After calculating the gravitational-related (≠ tidal force) values ​​during past earthquakes, they were able to identify the following three fields (a total of 103 decision trees) as decision trees, considering the vertical axis (altitude) and horizontal axis (plane = 2 dimensions) of the Earth's surface at the epicenter.

[0040] 3-1. Category 1 Major decision trees: Fields related to the gravitational pull of the sun and moon (Converting the astronomical coordinates of the National Astronomical Observatory to mathematical coordinates on an hourly basis) (1) When the gravitational scalars of celestial bodies in the solar system that affect Earth, especially the Sun and the Moon, are 3.5 to 15 percent less than their respective maximum values. (2) When the gravitational pull of the sun and moon affecting the Earth is reduced along the vertical axis of the Earth's surface at the epicenter. (3) When, inevitably, the majority of the gravitational forces of the sun and moon that affect the Earth are acting along the horizontal axis.

[0041] 3-2. Category 2 Areas of regression equations from primary decision trees (per hour) (Regression equation only) (4) Correlation between the Moon and the Sun on the vertical axis (5) Correlation between the direction of the moon and the direction of the sun (6) Correlation between the angle of the Earth's orbit (=position=date) and the orientation of the Moon as seen from Earth (lunar phase) (7) Correlation between the interior angle of the moon and the sun and the gravitational pull along the horizontal axis. From the main decision tree, we discovered a regression equation showing the correlation between items (4) to (7), and found that earthquakes with greater seismic intensity had smaller residuals (errors) and were more regular.

[0042] 3-3. Category 3 Fields related to the gravitational pull of solar system celestial bodies (At least a daily basis, preferably an hourly basis) (A: Mathematical coordinates with Earth as the origin and the sun fixed at 90°; AbDg: Mathematical coordinates with the sun as the origin, 0° on July 2nd, and 180° on January 2nd) (8) The relationship between the vertical and horizontal axes of the Sun, Moon, Jupiter and the entire planetary system (9) Although the causal relationship is unclear, there are boundaries in the statistical figures, and we will explore the possibility of correlation with earthquakes using attractive, coefficient, and angle-related data. (Note: Everything starts with (9) and changes shape, moving from (1) to (8))

[0043] As described above, a total of 103 decision trees were created (the target differs depending on the seismic intensity), and a support vector machine-like determination was made as to whether the location was within the boundary range [1] or not [0] of past earthquakes of each seismic intensity. When all years and dates that all decision trees determined to be within the range [1] were extracted and evaluated, the predictions were accurate with the following probabilities. However, even if one or two items are missing from all decision trees, there remains a possibility that an earthquake will occur.

[0044] The accuracy rate for predicting earthquakes of magnitude 7 was 100%, the rate of false alarms was 0%, and the detection rate was 100%. For magnitude 6+ only, the accuracy rate was 59%, the rate of false alarms was 41%, and the detection rate was 100%. For magnitude 6- only, the accuracy rate was 33%, the rate of false alarms was 67%, and the detection rate was 100%.

[0045] In other words, this algorithm allows for earthquake prediction, including time, with the above probability, by extracting periods in the future that meet similar conditions (1).

[0046] At that time, they had already successfully made several experimental earthquake predictions that were in the future. Based on the data, they discovered a new earthquake generation mechanism different from the "plate stress limit theory," stating that "earthquakes occur when the gravitational scalar force exerted on Earth by solar system celestial bodies is small, and the vertical axis gravitational force decreases," and that "earthquakes are triggered by gravitational contraction due to a decrease in the vertical axis gravitational force and the horizontal gravitational force represented by the sun and moon, and these values ​​are correlated and can be expressed by each regression equation."

[0047] 3-4. Earthquake Prediction These decision trees relate to the direction and magnitude of the gravitational force exerted on the Earth by a given celestial body. The earthquake prediction method of the present invention predicts that an earthquake will occur in a given region if these decision trees correspond to the earthquake occurrence range in past earthquakes.

[0048] The earthquake prediction method of the present invention predicts that an earthquake will occur in a predetermined area if, when using multiple decision trees, at least one of the multiple decision trees, preferably more than half, and more preferably all of them, are within the earthquake occurrence range. Incidentally, the probabilities mentioned above were for 49 or more occurrences for seismic intensity 7, 97 or more occurrences for seismic intensity 6+, and 89 or more occurrences for seismic intensity 6-.

[0049] The number of decision trees used for earthquake prediction among multiple decision trees should be large, as this improves the accuracy of earthquake prediction. In this embodiment, all of the multiple decision trees described later are used to predict earthquakes. However, this is not limited to this, and some of the decision trees may be excluded. In addition, decision trees for new celestial information, such as tidal forces, may be added.

[0050] 3-5. Earthquake Prediction Methods The flow of the earthquake prediction method of the present invention will be described below. Figure 8 is a flowchart of the earthquake prediction method of the present invention. The earthquake prediction method of the present invention includes an astronomical information collection step S1, a decision tree acquisition step S2, an earthquake range identification step S3, and an earthquake prediction step S4.

[0051] (Astronomical information gathering step S1) (Setting of earthquake prediction target areas) In astronomical information gathering step S1, the first step is to set the earthquake prediction target area. In this embodiment, the earthquake prediction target area is set to Japan. Setting the earthquake prediction target area determines the area in which earthquakes will be predicted. The earthquake prediction target area can be any region on Earth, for example, only Japan, or the Asian region (multiple countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines), and can be determined at the discretion of the predictor, such as a specified range of latitude and longitude, or limited to the West Coast of the United States. However, if the range of the earthquake prediction target area is too broad, it may become impossible to make predictions due to information overload, and if the range is too narrow, there may be insufficient information, potentially resulting in a lower accuracy rate. Therefore, an appropriate range must be determined while observing the results.

[0052] (Setting the data collection period) Next, a period for collecting data for earthquake prediction is set. This period consists of a predetermined past period (past data collection period) and a future period for which earthquake prediction is to be made (prediction period) in the area targeted for earthquake prediction. The past data collection period and prediction period can be arbitrarily set by the researchers and predictors, but are usually limited to periods during which earthquake data for that area and astronomical information for that period can be obtained. However, it's important to note that the open data available may vary depending on the source, and even the same site may be corrected later. Differences in data and corrections are surprisingly common, and it may be necessary to check the data every year.

[0053] (Astronomical information gathering) Then, astronomical information is collected for both the historical data collection period and the prediction period in the earthquake prediction target area. In this embodiment, astronomical information was collected for Japan, which is the earthquake prediction target area. The astronomical information must include, for example, the gravitational force, distance, position, angle, and mass of each celestial body, or it may also include the state of celestial bodies such as sunspots, tidal levels, gravitational waves, and other celestial body-related features. Furthermore, the celestial body information may also include atmospheric pressure on Earth and the Coriolis force.

[0054] (Celestial objects for which astronomical information is obtained) The celestial bodies used for prediction in this embodiment are Earth, the Sun, the Moon, and also Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn. However, it is not limited to these, and other celestial bodies may be used. In addition, other celestial bodies may be added to the celestial bodies used for prediction in this embodiment, or some celestial bodies may be removed from those used for prediction in this embodiment. Furthermore, other celestial bodies are not limited to planets in the solar system, but may be celestial bodies belonging to other parts of the Milky Way galaxy, or extragalactic celestial bodies, as long as they have the potential to affect Earth. Also, they are not limited to planets, but may be nebulae, stars, dwarf planets, moons, comets, black holes, etc. Another celestial body may be a hypothetical celestial body (celestial body X) that may exist far away on the x-axis in Earth-centered coordinates. This hypothetical celestial body (celestial body X) may be a black hole. In other words, the number of decision trees may increase in the future in order to improve the accuracy.

[0055] Furthermore, in this embodiment, astronomical information is shown using xy coordinates with the Earth as the center and the Sun fixed at 90° (Earth-centered coordinates) or xy coordinates with the Sun as the center (sun-centered coordinates), but is not limited to these. Astronomical information may not use coordinates. Also, the center of the coordinates is not limited to the Earth or the Sun, but may be the galactic center, a black hole, etc. Moreover, in this embodiment, the xy axes are lines passing through the perihelion and aphelion in the Earth-centered coordinates, but is not limited to this, and the xy axes may be in the direction passing through the winter solstice, spring equinox, summer solstice, and autumn equinox.

[0056] (Period for acquiring astronomical information) The time unit for acquiring astronomical information is at least one day for gravitational forces, preferably one hour, but 10 minutes, 1 minute, etc. are also acceptable. Similarly, for tidal forces, one hour or less is preferred, but 10 minutes, 1 minute, etc. are also acceptable. The period for predicting earthquake occurrences depends on the unit of the collected astronomical information. For example, if astronomical information is collected in hourly or minute units, earthquakes can also be predicted in hourly or minute units. This information is stored on a storage medium. A computer is preferred as the storage medium, but documents, etc., may also be used. Note that accuracy improves by using an hourly unit for the survey. However, this slows down the PC and takes time, so a high-performance PC is preferred.

[0057] (Where to get astronomical information) In Japan, the Japan Meteorological Agency is a preferred source for astronomical information, while outside of Japan, the USGS (United States Ground Self-Government System) is preferable. Other specialized organizations may also be used. However, when obtaining astronomical information, it is necessary to be aware of differences in time zones and calculation methods for event times and magnitudes. The accuracy of astronomical information may vary depending on the source. For example, in the case of lunar phases, lunar phase values ​​may differ slightly depending on the source on the internet, and there may be discrepancies between predicted values ​​and actual observed values ​​for celestial trajectories, etc. Therefore, a certain degree of ambiguity is acceptable.

[0058] (Decision tree acquisition step S2) Based on the above astronomical information, 103 decision trees were derived either directly from the astronomical information or by calculations performed using the astronomical information. The various decision trees will be described later.

[0059] (Earthquake range identification step S3) (Setting the magnitude of the earthquake to be predicted) In earthquake range identification step S3, first, the date and time of an earthquake of a predetermined magnitude is identified within the historical data collection period for the earthquake prediction target area. The criteria for determining an earthquake of a predetermined magnitude may be a single criterion such as seismic intensity or magnitude, or a combination of these criteria.

[0060] (Identifying the earthquake's range) Next, the numerical range (individual earthquake occurrence range) for each decision tree is identified for the date and time when an earthquake of a predetermined magnitude or greater actually occurred within the historical data collection period. Here, if the maximum value of the decision tree at the time of the earthquake was 5.8, the earthquake occurrence range can be any range selected by the predictor, such as 5.8 or less, 5.81 or less, or 6.0 or less, as long as it includes the area where the earthquake actually occurred.

[0061] Furthermore, in this embodiment, the maximum value of astronomical information at the time of an earthquake was determined, and the earthquake occurrence range was defined as a value from 0 to a value slightly larger than the maximum value by α. However, this is not the only option; the correlation between the minimum or average value of the astronomical information range at the time of an earthquake and the occurrence of the earthquake may also be used. Alternatively, a correlation coefficient between the angle on the coordinate system of a predetermined celestial body, or some state of a predetermined celestial body (e.g., the number of sunspots on the sun) and the occurrence of the earthquake may be used. In addition, the value of α can be changed each time a new earthquake occurs.

[0062] In this embodiment, the earthquake occurrence range and the total range for the past data collection period were determined for each decision tree. In this case, the decision tree for when an earthquake of a predetermined seismic intensity or higher occurred in Japan was defined as the earthquake occurrence range.

[0063] The accuracy rate and other parameters of this embodiment are determined as follows. Further details will be explained in

[0248] and beyond. If an earthquake is predicted to occur and does occur, the abbreviation TP will be used. The abbreviation FN refers to the case where an earthquake was predicted to occur but did not. If an earthquake is not predicted to occur and does not occur, the abbreviation TN will be used. If an earthquake is not predicted to occur, and it does occur, the abbreviation FP will be used. TP+FN+TN+FP is abbreviated as ALL. Overall accuracy rate: (TP+TN) / ALLx100 Earthquake occurrence accuracy Recall: TP / (TP+FN)x100 Acquisition rate Precision: TP / (TP+FP)x100

[0064] Note that there is only one example of an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6+, but it is also possible with seismic intensity 7 or M7, and although the accuracy rate will be considerably lower, weaker earthquakes such as 5+ are also acceptable.

[0065] Earthquakes can occur several times a day or with intervals of several days between them. In this embodiment, if the time between earthquake occurrences is within 30 days, which is the monthly cycle, even if there are multiple occurrences, it will be treated as one period. For example, if earthquakes occur on March 1st and March 31st, it will be determined to be the same earthquake and treated as one period. If earthquakes occur on March 1st and April 1st, it will be determined to be two different earthquakes and treated as two periods.

[0066] (Earthquake prediction step S4) (Prediction of future earthquake occurrences) Next, from the entire prediction period, in this embodiment, the period in which all decision trees from DT1 to DT103 fall within the earthquake occurrence range is extracted (Option 1: for each seismic intensity as defined in Figure 64; Option 2: for the decision trees necessary for each seismic intensity). This allows for the determination of specific future dates, which become the predicted dates on which an earthquake is likely to occur. This period corresponds to past TP+FN, and the probability of an earthquake occurring is estimated to be the earthquake occurrence rate: TP / (TP+FN)x100. However, the hit / miss result is updated after the date has passed. Furthermore, it is preferable that all decision trees from DT1 to DT103 and up to 58P fall within the earthquake occurrence range, but the number of such trees may be at the discretion of the predictor, for example, to broaden the prediction period to ensure reliable prediction.

[0067] In this embodiment, from the entire prediction period, a period is extracted in which one or more decision trees required for each seismic intensity do not fall within the earthquake occurrence range. This period corresponds to the period of no earthquake prediction with a past accuracy rate of TN / (TN+FP)x100, but the accuracy rate is revised as the hit / miss results are updated after the specified period has elapsed. Ideally, there should be at least one decision tree that does not fall within the earthquake's predicted range. However, the number of such decision trees is at the discretion of the predictor, for purposes such as extending the prediction period to ensure accurate predictions.

[0068] The above excerpts are preferably generated using various languages ​​such as Excel or Python on a computer. Furthermore, while it might be possible to use astronomical information of celestial bodies used for prediction during both the historical data collection period and the prediction period as a dataset for AI machine learning or deep learning, and extract data using AI if the sample size (number of earthquakes) is large, in this embodiment, the data was extracted using Excel.

[0069] 4. Explanation of Decision Trees The following explains the contents, calculation results, and correlation formulas of each decision tree.

[0070] 4-1 Category 1 Major decision trees: Fields related to the gravitational pull of the sun and moon

[0071] [Decision Tree 1, 2] (DT1, 2) Correlation between lunar and solar gravitational scalars by seismic intensity (All the period is unrelated to earthquakes) Figure 9 is a graph illustrating decision trees 1 and 2.

[0072] <Meaning of the graph> The graph in Figure 9 shows the lunar gravitational scalar (X-axis) and solar gravitational scalar (Y-axis) for each seismic intensity during earthquakes from January 1, 1995 to September 2024. The gravitational scalar for the entire period is independent of whether or not earthquakes occurred. (Example: Seismic Intensity 6.5: Seismic Intensity 6+, for Japan)

[0073] <Features> At seismic intensity 6+, the range of the lunar gravitational scalar (X-axis) is approximately 30% smaller in area than normal, and at seismic intensity 7, the range of the solar gravitational scalar (Y-axis) is approximately 20% smaller than normal. Furthermore, as the seismic intensity decreases, the scalar becomes almost the same as the scalar over the entire period. Also, the solar gravitational scalar is approximately 200 times greater than the lunar gravitational scalar, and here, it can be said that the smaller the scalar, the stronger the earthquake, and it is important to note that this is not the case that the larger the scalar, the stronger the earthquake, which is a common misconception.

[0074] <Numerical range for the Decision Tree used for prediction> The following specific ranges are defined as containing 100% of earthquakes of each seismic intensity, and are considered highly likely to occur under similar conditions in the future. Since the sample size is small, it is wise to allow for some flexibility in these values ​​when using them for prediction; however, allowing too much flexibility will make prediction impossible, so finding the right balance is a challenge.

[0075] [Decision Tree 1] DT1 Coordinates: the centers of celestial bodies Scalar range of the moon's gravitational pull when an earthquake of magnitude 7 occurs 1.79x10^20 or more 2.23x10^20 or less Scalar range of the moon's gravitational pull when an earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher occurs. 1.79x10^20 or more 2.12x10^20 or less Scalar range of the moon's gravitational pull when an earthquake of magnitude 6- occurs. 1.76x10^20 or more 2.29x10^20 or less

[0076] [Decision Tree 2] DT2 Coordinates: the centers of celestial bodies Scalar range of the sun's gravitational pull during an earthquake of magnitude 7 3.66x10^22 or more 4.05x10^22 or less Scalar range of the sun's gravitational pull during an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6 or higher. 3.72x10^22 or more 4.19x10^22 or less Scalar range of the sun's gravitational pull during an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6-minus 3.66x10^22 or more 4.20x10^22 or less

[0077] [Decision Tree 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8] (DT3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8) The sum of the gravitational vectors of solar system celestial bodies (Sun, Moon, Mercury to Saturn) by seismic intensity (X-axis: horizontal axis, Y-axis: vertical axis) *The horizontal axis is independent of direction.

[0078] <Meaning of the graph> Figure 10 is a diagram illustrating decision trees 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8. The graph in Figure 10 shows the horizontal axis gravitational force vector (X-axis) and vertical axis gravitational force vector (Y-axis) of solar system celestial bodies (Sun, Moon, Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn) relative to Tokyo, categorized by seismic intensity at the time of an earthquake. Since both the X and Y axes have a unit of 10^22, both are approximately the gravitational force of the Sun. Therefore, the top dead center is the time of the Sun's meridian noon (before noon), the bottom dead center is before midnight, the right end is around sunrise, and the left end is around sunset.

[0079] <Features> The greater the seismic intensity, the smaller the gravitational force vector on the vertical axis, and the greater the seismic intensity, the larger the gravitational force vector on the horizontal axis.

[0080] Furthermore, no earthquakes have occurred in the circled area for seismic intensity 6- or higher, and earthquakes are also less frequent for intensity 5- and 5-strong. In other words, when the sun is positioned during the time when there is a gap between sunrise and the sun's opposite side of the Earth (which we will call the singular time period), earthquakes tend to be less frequent or do not occur at all. We speculate that the reason for this is that the singular time period circled below is the time period when (1) and (2) below overlap.

[0081] (1) The Sun's vertical axis gravitational pull - movement in the direction (from the left end to the bottom dead center) tends to increase the strength of gravity relative to the Earth's surface at the epicenter, so according to the hypothesis of gravitational contraction, it can be inferred that this promotes earthquake occurrence. On the other hand, movement in the direction of the sun's vertical gravitational pull (from the bottom dead center to the rightmost point) tends to decrease the strength of gravity relative to the Earth's surface, so it can be inferred that this suppresses earthquake occurrence. In this case, the peculiar time period can be explained by the fact that it coincides with a time period that suppresses earthquake occurrence. As an analogy, it is like saying, "When you stretch a rubber band until it breaks, it always breaks while you are stretching it, and it never breaks while you are contracting it." However, an explanation is needed as to why the unusual time period disappears after 3 AM.

[0082] (2) As for the reason why the anomalous time period disappears after 3 a.m., since it starts from about halfway along the hypotenuse of the fourth quadrant, could it be explained that this is a branching point where the horizontal axis gravitational force vector, one of the key points that causes earthquakes, trigonometrically, has a greater proportion of cos (horizontal axis force) than sin (vertical axis force)?

[0083] <Numerical range for the Decision Tree used for prediction> The specific ranges below contain 100% of earthquakes of each seismic intensity, indicating a high probability of future occurrences under similar conditions. When using these ranges for prediction, it is wise to allow for some flexibility, but allowing too much flexibility will make prediction impossible, so finding the right balance is crucial.

[0084] [Decision Tree 3] DT3 Coordinates: the centers of celestial bodies The range of the combined vertical axis of the gravitational force vector of all solar system celestial bodies at the time of a magnitude 7 earthquake. 1.63x10^22 or less The range of the combined vertical axis of the gravitational force vector of all solar system celestial bodies at the time of an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6 or higher. 3.32x10^22 or less The range of the combined vertical axis of the gravitational force vector of all solar system celestial bodies at the time of a magnitude 6-weak earthquake. 3.5x10^22 or less

[0085] [Decision Tree 4] DT4 Coordinates: the centers of celestial bodies The range of the negative vertical axis of the combined gravitational force vector of all solar system celestial bodies at the time of a magnitude 7 earthquake. 1.7x10^22 or less Range of negative vertical gravitational force vectors of all solar system celestial bodies at the time of a magnitude 6+ earthquake 3.04x10^22 or less The range of the combined vertical axis of the gravitational force vector of all solar system celestial bodies at the time of a magnitude 6-weak earthquake. 3.38x10^22 or less

[0086] [Decision Tree 5] DT5 Coordinates: the centers of celestial bodies The range of the combined horizontal axis plus gravitational vector of solar system celestial bodies at the time of a magnitude 7 earthquake. 5.4x10^19 or more The range of the combined horizontal axis of the gravitational force vector of all solar system celestial bodies at the time of an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6 or higher. 2.53x10^19 or more The range of the combined horizontal axis and gravitational force vector of all solar system celestial bodies at the time of a magnitude 6-weak earthquake. 2.1 x 10^19 or greater

[0087] [Decision Tree 6] DT6 Coordinates: the centers of celestial bodies Range of negative horizontal gravitational force vectors of all solar system celestial bodies at the time of a magnitude 7 earthquake 1.6x10^20 or more Range of negative horizontal gravitational force vectors of all solar system celestial bodies at the time of a magnitude 6+ earthquake 1.52 x 10^20 or more Range of negative horizontal gravitational force vectors of all solar system celestial bodies at the time of a magnitude 6-weak earthquake 1.29 x 10^19 or greater

[0088] [Decision Tree 7] DT7 Coordinates: the centers of celestial bodies The sum of the vertical and horizontal axes of solar system celestial bodies at the time of a magnitude 7 earthquake is a scalar. 4.08x10^22 or less The sum of the vertical and horizontal axes of solar system celestial bodies at the time of an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6 or higher. 4.21x10^22 or less The sum of the vertical and horizontal axes of solar system celestial bodies at the time of an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6-minus. 4.22x10^22 or less

[0089] [Decision Tree 8] DT8 Coordinates: the centers of celestial bodies The range of gravitational vectors of solar system celestial bodies when seismic intensities of 7, 6+, and 6- occur. • Vertical axis gravitational vectors of solar system celestial bodies 0.0 or less is considered -A. • Horizontal axis gravitational vectors of solar system celestial bodies When the value is between 0.0 and 2.0 x 10^22, and -B is used. The range outside of A∩B (≒outside the circle)

[0090] Since there is overlap with DT3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8, Figure 11 shows the total absolute value (X, Y) of the gravitational vectors of the solar system planets, the sun, and the moon, categorized by seismic intensity, for reference.

[0091] <Meaning of the graph> Figure 11 is an absolute value representation of Figure 10.

[0092] <Features> The smaller the absolute value (scalar) of the vertical force vector (Y), the stronger the earthquake. Earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 7 occur only when the absolute value (scalar) of the horizontal force vector (X) is large, while earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 5 or lower exhibit the characteristic that the absolute value (scalar) of the horizontal force vector (X) is present throughout the entire region.

[0093] [Decision Trees 9, 10, 11, 12] DT9, 10, 11, 12 Absolute values ​​of the lunar vertical axis gravitational vector (X) and the solar vertical axis gravitational vector (Y) by seismic intensity. Figure 12 illustrates decision trees 9, 10, 11, and 12.

[0094] <Meaning of the graph> This shows the absolute values ​​of the Moon's vertical axis gravitational force vector (X) and the Sun's vertical axis gravitational force vector (Y) for each seismic intensity.

[0095] <Features> In the vertical axis of the epicenter, earthquakes are more likely to occur when the gravitational force along the vertical axis is weak, not just when there are strong shaking earthquakes. This tendency is particularly pronounced for earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 7.

[0096] <Numerical range for the Decision Tree used for prediction> The earthquakes of the predicted seismic intensity fall within the specific range below, meaning they are highly likely to occur under similar conditions in the future. When using this range for prediction, it is wise to allow for some flexibility, but allowing too much flexibility will make prediction impossible, so finding the right balance is a challenge.

[0097] [Decision Tree 9] DT9 Coordinates: the centers of celestial bodies Range of the moon's vertical axis plus gravitational vector when an earthquake of magnitude 7 occurs 1.34x10^20 or less Range of the moon's vertical axis and positive gravitational vector when an earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher occurs 1.67x10^20 or less Range of the moon's vertical axis and positive gravitational vector when an earthquake of magnitude 6- occurs. 1.82x10^20 or less

[0098] [Decision Tree 10] DT10 Coordinates: the centers of celestial bodies Range of the Moon's negative gravitational force vector on the vertical axis when an earthquake of magnitude 7 occurs 8.6x10^19 or less Range of the Moon's negative gravitational force vector on the vertical axis during an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6 or higher. 1.61x10^20 or less Range of the moon's negative gravitational force vector on the vertical axis when an earthquake of magnitude 6- occurs. 1.66x10^20 or less

[0099] [Decision Tree 11] DT11 Coordinates: the centers of celestial bodies The range of the sun's vertical axis plus gravitational force vector at the time of a magnitude 7 earthquake. 1.7x10^22 or less The range of the sun's vertical axis plus gravitational force vector when an earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher occurs. 3.31x10^22 or less The range of the sun's vertical axis plus gravitational force vector when an earthquake of magnitude 6- occurs. 3.50x10^22 or less

[0100] [Decision Tree 12] DT12 Coordinates: the centers of celestial bodies The range of the sun's negative gravitational force vector on the vertical axis when an earthquake of magnitude 7 occurs. 1.69x10^22 or less The range of the sun's negative gravitational force vector on the vertical axis when an earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher occurs. 3.03x10^22 or less The range of the sun's negative gravitational force vector on the vertical axis when an earthquake of magnitude 6 occurs. 3.37x10^22 or less

[0101] [Decision Tree 13] DT13 Lunar horizontal axis gravitational vector (X), Sun horizontal axis gravitational vector (Y) by seismic intensity. Figure 13 is a diagram illustrating decision tree 13.

[0102] <Meaning of the graph> Figure 15 is a graph showing the correlation between the lunar horizontal gravitational force vector (X) and the solar horizontal gravitational force vector (Y) for different seismic intensities.

[0103] <Features> An earthquake with a seismic intensity of 7 occurs when the absolute value of the sun's horizontal gravitational force vector (Y) is large, and no earthquakes have occurred within the wide area enclosed by the square near the origin. During an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6 or higher, the sun's horizontal gravitational vector (Y) is somewhat large, and although not as large as at a seismic intensity of 7, no earthquake occurred within the area enclosed by the square near the origin. An earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6-minus tends to occur when the horizontal gravitational vector (Y) between the moon and the sun is somewhat large. Although not as strong as an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6-plus, no earthquakes have occurred within the area enclosed by the square with the origin. Looking at all earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 5 or higher, a common characteristic is that the gravitational pull (absolute value) of both the moon and the sun is relatively large on the horizontal axis, and this tendency becomes stronger with larger earthquakes. (We are looking for situations where "this condition has never occurred" rather than simply looking at the number of occurrences, for the purpose of earthquake prediction.)

[0104] <Numerical range for the Decision Tree used for prediction> The specific ranges below contain 100% of earthquakes of each seismic intensity, indicating a high probability of future occurrences under similar conditions. When using these ranges for prediction, it is wise to allow for some flexibility, but allowing too much flexibility will make prediction impossible, so finding the right balance is crucial.

[0105] [Decision tree 13A(7)]DT13A(7) (Coordinates are astronomical coordinates from the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan → mathematical coordinates) Range of the moon's horizontal axis plus gravitational vector when an earthquake of magnitude 7 occurs 1.7 x 10^20 or more Furthermore, the range of the moon's horizontal axis negative gravitational vector when an earthquake of magnitude 7 occurs. 1.7 x 10^20 or more Furthermore, the range of the sun's horizontal axis plus gravitational vector at the time of a magnitude 7 earthquake. 2.0 x 10^22 or greater Furthermore, the range of the sun's horizontal axis negative gravitational force vector when an earthquake of magnitude 7 occurs. 2.0 x 10^22 or larger (outside the rectangle)

[0106] [Decision tree 13B(6.5)]DT13B(6.5) The coordinates are astronomical coordinates from the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan → mathematical coordinates. Range of the moon's horizontal axis and gravitational vector at the time of a magnitude 6+ earthquake 8.0 x 10^19 or greater Furthermore, the range of the moon's horizontal axis negative gravitational vector when an earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher occurs. 8.0 x 10^19 or greater Furthermore, the range of the sun's horizontal axis plus gravitational vector at the time of a magnitude 6+ earthquake. 9.0 x 10^21 or greater Furthermore, the range of the sun's horizontal axis negative gravitational force vector when an earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher occurs. 9.0 x 10^21 or larger (outside the rectangle)

[0107] [Decision tree 13C(6.0)]DT13C(6.0) The coordinates are astronomical coordinates from the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan → mathematical coordinates. Range of the moon's horizontal axis and positive gravitational vector when an earthquake of magnitude 6- occurs. 1.0 x 10^20 or more Furthermore, the range of the moon's horizontal axis negative gravitational vector when an earthquake of magnitude 6- occurs. 1.0 x 10^20 or more Furthermore, the range of the sun's horizontal axis plus gravitational vector when an earthquake of magnitude 6- occurs. 2.5 x 10^21 or greater Furthermore, the range of the sun's horizontal axis gravitational force vector when an earthquake of magnitude 6- occurs. 2.5 x 10^21 or larger (outside the area enclosed by the rectangle)

[0108] [Decision Tree 14] DT14 Absolute values ​​of the lunar horizontal axis vector (X) and the solar horizontal axis gravitational force vector (Y) by seismic intensity.

[0109] <Meaning of the graph> Figure 14 is a diagram illustrating decision tree 14, representing Figure 13 using absolute values. Its features are easy to understand.

[0110] <Features> The clusters (circled areas) occur above the shaded line shown in the diagram below.

[0111] <Numerical range for the Decision Tree used for prediction>

[0112] [Decision Tree 14] DT14 The coordinates are astronomical coordinates from the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan → mathematical coordinates. Range (scalar) of the horizontal gravitational force vector of the Moon or Sun at the time of a magnitude 7 earthquake. When the solar horizontal axis vector at the time of the earthquake is Yh7 and the boundary equation is DT14(7) = 2.0 x 10^22, Yh7>Boundary expression DT14(7)

[0113] Range of the lunar or solar gravitational vector at the time of a magnitude 6+ earthquake. When the horizontal axis vector of the sun at the time of the earthquake is Yh6.5 and the horizontal axis vector of the moon is X, The calculation result of the boundary equation DT14(6.5) = 133.33xX - 6.66x10^21 is Yh6.5 > boundary equation DT14(6.5)

[0114] Range of the lunar or solar gravitational force vector at the time of a magnitude 6.0 earthquake. When the horizontal axis vector of the sun at the time of the earthquake is Yh6 and the horizontal axis vector of the moon is X, The calculation result of the boundary equation DT14(6) = 166.66x(X) - 183.32x10^22 is Yh6 > DT14(6).

[0115] [Decision Tree 15, 16] DT15, 16 Correlation between lunar altitude and solar altitude by seismic intensity Figure 15 illustrates decision trees 15 and 16.

[0116] <Meaning of the graph> This shows the altitude of the Moon (X) and the Sun (Y) at the time of the earthquake, categorized by seismic intensity.

[0117] <Features> Based on past trends, it could be inferred that earthquakes with stronger shaking should occur at lower altitudes (if the cosine coefficient is large, the sinus coefficient should be small), and the results confirmed this.

[0118] <Numerical range for the Decision Tree used for prediction>

[0119] [Decision Tree 15] DT15 The coordinates are astronomical coordinates from the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan → mathematical coordinates. Range of the moon's altitude during an earthquake of magnitude 7: -60° to 60° Range of the moon's altitude during an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6 or higher: -72° to 72° Range of the moon's altitude during an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6-minus: -75° to 75°

[0120] [Decision Tree 16] DT16 The coordinates are astronomical coordinates from the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan → mathematical coordinates. The range of the sun's altitude during an earthquake of magnitude 7: -45° to 45° The range of the sun's altitude during an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6 or higher: -66° to 66° The range of the sun's altitude during an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6-minus: -75° to 70°

[0121] 4-2 Category 2 The field of regression equations from major decision trees Correlation between the lunar vertical axis gravitational vector (X) and the solar vertical axis gravitational vector (Y) by seismic intensity.

[0122] <Meaning of the graph> Figure 16 is an explanatory text for decision tree 17 (specifically for regression equations for seismic intensity 7).

[0123] <Features> The greater the seismic intensity, the smaller the vertical gravitational vectors of the sun and the moon. For seismic intensity 7, this effect becomes extreme, making it possible to construct a regression equation like the dotted line in the lower right diagram. Regression equation Ydt17 = 46.1168X·3.6089x10^21 (maximum residual ±1.35x10^22) *The ± values ​​of the residuals (intercept) were adjusted to be the same.

[0124] <Numerical range for the Decision Tree used for prediction> The specific range below contains a 100% probability of an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 7, and it can be said that there is a high probability of such an earthquake occurring in the future under similar conditions. When using this range for prediction, it is wise to allow for some flexibility in the numerical range, but if the range is too wide, prediction becomes impossible, so finding the right balance is a challenge.

[0125] [Decision Tree 17] DT17 The coordinates are astronomical coordinates from the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan → mathematical coordinates. Solar gravitational force Y-axis vector range during an earthquake of magnitude 7 Regression equation Ydt17 = 46.1168X·3.6089x10^21 (within ±1.36x10^22) No earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 6-minus or 6-plus.

[0126] [Decision Tree 18] DT18 Correlation between seismic intensity and the orientation of the moon and sun at the time of an earthquake.

[0127] <Meaning of the graph> Figure 17 shows the correlation between seismic intensity and the orientation of the moon and sun at the time of earthquakes, using point cloud data from the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan for the field of view of Tokyo, from January 1, 1995 to June 30, 2024. The orientations were converted from astronomical coordinates to mathematical coordinates, with 90° being north, 0° east, 270° south, and 180° west.

[0128] <Features> It seems possible to derive regression equations for seismic intensities of 6+ and 7. For seismic intensities of 5-, the points are clustered in the central part (west) of the graph, but this is not the case for seismic intensities of 5+ and above.

[0129] <Meaning of the graph> (Reason for using a quartic equation in the regression equation) Figure 18 shows the directional trajectories of the moon and sun at different lunar phases. The 360° is divided into four 90° sections, and the trajectories are drawn accordingly. Period S is for lunar phases of 26 days or more, and 0 to less than 3.8 days. Period E is for lunar phases of 3.8 to less than 11.3 days. Period N is for lunar phases of 11.3 to less than 18.7 days. Period W is for lunar phases of 18.7 to less than 26 days.

[0130] For example, at lunar age 0, the sun and moon are facing almost the same direction, and the interior angle between the two celestial bodies is almost 0°, which is what is known as a new moon. At lunar age 14.8, the sun and moon are facing opposite directions, and the interior angle between the two celestial bodies is almost 180°, which is what is known as a full moon. In other words, lunar age can be said to be the interior angle between the directions of the sun and moon as seen from the sky, and due to the existence of seasons caused by the angle of the Earth's rotation, the change in the directions of the two celestial bodies at different lunar ages is drawn as a quartic curve as shown in Figure 18.

[0131] [Decision tree 18(6.0)]DT18(6.0) Correlation between the lunar and solar azimuth at the time of an earthquake, categorized by seismic intensity: Regression equation for seismic intensity 6-weak. Based on Figure 18, which visualizes the trajectories of the sun and moon according to lunar phase, we considered it highly likely that a quadratic curve would be drawn, and performed regression analysis of the angular difference between the moon and the sun at the time of seismic intensity 6-minus, seismic intensity 6-plus, and seismic intensity 7 occurrences from the point cloud on Figure 17.

[0132] We attempted to create regression equations for earthquakes ranging from magnitude 6-weak to magnitude 7. As a result, we were able to create seven (15) quartic equations: Y1, Y2, Y3, (Y1', Y2', Y3', Y3'') for magnitude 6-weak, Y4, Y5, (Y4', Y5') for magnitude 6-strong, and Y6, Y7, (Y6', Y7') for magnitude 7. The maximum residuals ranged from 0 to 47. This suggests that the correlation between the directions of the sun and moon during earthquakes of magnitude 6-strong and magnitude 7 is likely to be represented by the quartic equations described below.

[0133] <Meaning of the graph> Figure 19 shows the regression equation for seismic intensity 6-minus. The X-axis represents the azimuth of the moon in mathematical coordinates, and the Y-axis represents the azimuth of the sun in mathematical coordinates. The variable X (azimuth of the moon) in the quartic equation can be changed to X'=(X±360), and all the point cloud data for seismic intensity 6-minus in Figure 17 was clustered (grouped) as shown in Y1, Y2, and Y3 in the upper part of Fig. 13, resulting in three regression equations. When the data was returned to the actual azimuth of the celestial body, within the range of 0° to 360° in the X direction, it became the curve Y1 to Y3 shown in the lower part of Fig. 13.

[0134] <Features> By adding -6 for Y1, 4.5 for Y2, and 3.6 for Y3 to the intercepts of the three equations, and adjusting them so that the maximum positive residual and the maximum negative residual are equal in ±, the maximum residuals of each equation become ±35, ±35, and ±30 in that order. All calculation results for the correlation between the moon and the sun's orientation when an earthquake of magnitude 6- occurred are 100% within the range of ±30 to 35 of the calculation results for each equation.

[0135] The gravity-related values ​​in Figures 9 to 19 are calculated using the distance to the celestial body and the angle of the celestial body at the epicenter, so it is not surprising that the characteristics of this regression equation were observed in the angle difference between the Moon and the Sun, which is where the seismic intensity of 6- occurred. While we should keep in mind the possibility of overfitting (coincidence), the regression equation was also obtained for the later seismic intensities of 6- and 7, so although the possibility of overfitting is not zero, I think it is small.

[0136] In this context, overfitting refers to the phenomenon where the regression equation matches the sample (earthquakes) due to a small sample size, but then fails to match the regression equation as the sample size increases. While this will ultimately be determined in the future, the fact that three regression equations have been obtained for earthquakes ranging from magnitude 6 to 7 suggests that this possibility is unlikely.

[0137] <Numerical range for the Decision Tree used for prediction> [Decision tree 18(6.0)]DT18(6.0) If X represents the direction of the moon in mathematical coordinates and Y represents the direction of the sun in mathematical coordinates, then the area where an earthquake is likely to occur is defined as the area where the calculation result of any of the following seven formulas falls within a certain range. Y1=-1.1980x10^-06 x X^4+0.001285 x X^3 -0.47 x X^2+66.9637 x X -2846.8984 -6 The calculation result is ±35 Y1'=-1.1980x(X+360)^4 +0.001285x(X+360)^3 -0.47x(X+360)^2 +66.9637x(X+360) +2846.8984 -6 The calculation result is ±35 Y2=8.0401x10^-8 x X^4 -3.6323x10^-5 x X^3 -2.4456 x 10^-5 x X^2 +1.6746 x X +5.8107 +4.5 The calculation result is ±35 Y2'=8.0401x10^-8 x (X-360)^4 -3.6323 x 10^-5 x (X-360)^3 -2.4456 x 10^-5 x (X-360)^2 +1.6746 x (X-360) +5.8107 +4.5 The calculation result is ±35 Y3=-1.3025 x 10^-7 x X^4 +4.4282 x 10^-5 x X^3 +0.009139 x X^2 -2.3619 x X +109.4183 +3.6 The calculation result is ±30 Y3'=-1.3025x10^-7 x (X-360)^4 +4.4282 x 10^-5 x (X-360)^3 +0.009139 x (X-360)^2 -2.3619 x (X -360)+109.4183 +3.6 The calculation result is ±30 Y3''=-1.3025x10^-7 x (X+360)^4 +4.4282 x 10^-5 x (X+360)^3 +0.009139 x (X+360)^2 -2.36190 x (X+360)+109.4183 +3.6 The calculation result is ±30

[0138] [Decision tree 18(6.5)]DT18(6.5) Correlation between seismic intensity and the orientation of the moon and sun at the time of an earthquake: Developing a regression equation for seismic intensity 6+. Figure 20 is a diagram illustrating decision tree 18(6.5).

[0139] <Meaning of the graph> The X-axis represents the azimuth of the moon in mathematical coordinates, and the Y-axis represents the azimuth of the sun in mathematical coordinates. The variable X (lunar azimuth) in the quartic equation can be changed to X' = (X ± 360). All point cloud data for earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 6+ in Figure 17 were clustered as shown in Y4 and Y5 in Figure 20, and the data was divided into two regression equations.

[0140] Since there are no negative azimuths for real celestial bodies, forcing the data in the negative region of the X direction back to positive resulted in the curve Y4 to Y5 shown on the right of Figure 20. *Note 1: There is also a graph around X=345. *Note 2: The dotted line in graph Y3 is not accurate.

[0141] <Features> By adding 0 to the intercept of the two equations for Y3 and -6 for Y4, and adjusting so that the maximum positive residual and the maximum negative residual are equal in ±, the maximum residuals of each equation become ±0 and ±46 in the same order. All calculation results for the correlation between the moon and the sun's orientation when an earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher occurs match 100% within the range of ±0 to 46 calculated for each equation. The gravitational forces shown in Figures 9-20 depend on the distance to the celestial body and the angle of the celestial body relative to the earthquake's epicenter. It is therefore not surprising that the characteristics of this regression equation were observed in the angular difference between the Moon and the Sun, which is the basis for earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 6 or higher.

[0142] <Numerical range for the Decision Tree used for prediction> [Decision tree 18(6.5)]DT18(6.5) If X is the direction of the moon's mathematical coordinates and Y is the direction of the sun's mathematical coordinates, then the area where an earthquake is likely to occur is defined as the area where the calculation result of the following four equations falls within any of the specified ranges.

[0143] Y4=-0.000653524*X^4 + 0.018232321*X^3 +0.578158213*X^2 -32.11073221 Calculation result ±10, maximum residual 0.000 Y5 = (4.199 * 10^-7)X^4 + (-3.032 * 10^-4)X^3 + (7.316 * 10^-2)X^2 + (-5.959)X + 140.0038844 -6 * -6 is the calculation result of the adjustment value to make the residuals ±47. Maximum residual ±46 Y4'=-0.000653524*(X-360)^4 +0.018232321*(X-360)^3 +0.578158213*(X-360)^2 -32.11073221 Calculation result of ±10 Y5’=(4.199*10^-7)*X^4 + (-3.032*10^-4)*X^3 + (7.316*10^-2)*X^2 + (-5.959)X + 140.0038844 -6 +360 Calculation result of ±47

[0144] [Decision tree 18(7.0)] DT18(7.0) Correlation between earthquake intensity, month at the time of earthquake occurrence, and solar azimuth. Regression equation for earthquake intensity 7

[0145] <Meaning of the graph> Figure 21 shows the regression equation for earthquake intensity 7. The X-axis represents the azimuth of the month in mathematical coordinates, and the Y-axis represents the azimuth of the sun in mathematical coordinates. The point groups are marked at the time of earthquake intensity 7 occurrence. It is considered that the variable X of the fourth-order equation can be changed to X‘=(X±360), and all the point group data of earthquake intensity 7 in Figure 17 are clustered like Y6 and Y7 in Figure 21 and divided into two regression equations. (Interpolation of the approximate equation by the dotted lines of Y6 and Y7 is not possible) When returning to the azimuth of the actual celestial body within 0~360°, it becomes the curve from Y6 to Y7 as shown on the right end of Figure 21.

[0146] <Features> The maximum residual of each equation is ±4.0x10^-5, and all the calculation results of the correlation between the month when earthquake intensity 7 occurred and the solar azimuth are 100% consistent within the range of the calculation result of each equation ±4.0x10^-5. The gravitational-related numerical values in Figures 6~19 are important for the distance of celestial bodies and the angle of celestial bodies on the earthquake epicenter. It is not surprising that the characteristics of this regression equation are found in the angle difference between the month when earthquake intensity 7 occurs and the sun.

[0147] <Numerical range of the decision tree for prediction> [Decision tree 18(7.0)] DT18(7.0) Assuming that X is the azimuth of the month in mathematical coordinates and Y is the azimuth of the sun in mathematical coordinates, when it falls within the range of any of the calculation results of the following four equations, it is defined as the range where an earthquake may occur.

[0148] Y6 = (4.26327×10^-7)×X^4 + (-3.19176×10^-4)×X^3 + (6.6742389×10^-2)×X^2 + (4.26327×10^-7)×X - 651.454 Calculation result of ±10, maximum residual ±0.00004 Y7 = (-2.58557×10^-6)×X^4 + (5.08942×10^-4)×X^3 + 31.04594536 Calculation result of ±10, maximum residual ±0.00000 Y6’ = (4.26327×10^-7)×(X + 360)^4 + (-3.19176×10^-4)×(X + 360)^3 + (6.6742389×10^-2)×(X + 360)^2 + (4.26327×10^-7)×(X + 360) - 651.454 Calculation result of ±10 Y7’ = (-2.58557×10^-6)×X^4 + (5.08942×10^-4)×X^3 + 31.04594536 - 360 Calculation result of ±10

[0149] [Decision Trees 19, 20] (DT19, 20) Correlation between earthquake intensity, seasons (dates) of the Earth, and lunar age

[0150] <Meaning of the graph>[[ID=�0]] Figure 22 is a diagram explaining Decision Trees 19 and 20. Using a coordinate system (coordinate AbDg) with the sun as the origin 1, the Earth's perihelion on January 2 (mathematical coordinate 180°), and the aphelion on July 2 (mathematical coordinate 0°), when an earthquake of each intensity occurs, the number of degrees on the Earth's orbit around the sun (graph X-axis) and the azimuth of the moon in degrees (graph Y-axis) when the Earth is set as the origin 2 (in the same direction AbDg as the origin 1) are represented by point group data.

[0151] <Features> Correlation between earthquake intensity, position of the Earth in its revolution (date), and position of the moon at the time of earthquake occurrence as seen from the Earth By determining the regression equations for seismic intensity 6+ and seismic intensity 7, the conditions for the occurrence of seismic intensity 6+ or higher can be narrowed down. Figure 23 illustrates the regression equations for seismic intensity 6+ and seismic intensity 7. In Figure 22, earthquakes of magnitude 5 or higher appear to occur relatively frequently around 270° on the X-axis, and especially around 180° on the Y-axis. This location corresponds to the area exemplified in Figure 23, which is "around lunar phase 7 in March" (the Great East Japan Earthquake). In other words, there seems to be a correlation between the Earth's orbital position and lunar phase.

[0152] In the area enclosed by the rectangle in Figure 22, no earthquakes occurred with a seismic intensity of 6 or higher. No earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 6 or higher have occurred during the period from November to January, specifically around lunar ages 23 to 29 and 0 to 7. For earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 6+ and 7, a regression equation like the one shown in Figure 23 could be created.

[0153] <Numerical range for the Decision Tree used for prediction> [Decision Tree 19] DT19 Seismic intensity 6 lower, 6 upper, 7 common The coordinates AbDg are "X: less than 120°, greater than 210°, Y: greater than 180°" (outside the area enclosed by the rectangle in Figure 22).

[0154] [Decision Tree 20] DT20 Using a coordinate system (coordinate AbDg) where the sun is the origin 1, the Earth's perihelion is on January 2nd (mathematical coordinate 180°), and its aphelion is on July 2nd (mathematical coordinate 0°), we define the range in which an earthquake is possible as follows: when X is the number of degrees the Earth is in its orbit around the sun at the time of an earthquake of each seismic intensity, and Y is the number of degrees the Moon is in a position where the Earth is simultaneously at the origin 2 (same direction AbDg as the origin 1), the angles at the time of the earthquake fall within the range of the calculation results below.

[0155] Magnitude 6+ Regression equation Y8: Y8 = 5.58321 x 10^-9 x X^4 - 2.7613 x 10^-5 x X^3 + 0.021150215 x X^2 - 4.02071314 x X + 248.7765525 + 11.5 (±69) Seismic intensity 7 Regression formula Y9: Y9 = 3.23974 x 10^-6 x X^4 - 0.002352004 x X^3 + 0.598601546 x X^2 - 61.69503227 x X + 2243.124239 - 1 (±18)

[0156] [Decision tree 21(6.5)] DT21(6.5) Correlation between the total gravitational force of the sun and the moon on the |X| axis and the angular difference (inner angle) between the sun and the moon by seismic intensity Derive the regression formula for strong seismic intensity 6.

[0157] <Meaning of the graph Figure 24 is a diagram explaining decision tree 21 and also explains the regression formulas Y10, Y11, and Y12 for strong seismic intensity 6. It is different from Figure 23. It is the correlation between the gravitational force of the sun |X| (graph X-axis) at the time of the occurrence of strong seismic intensity 6 and the inner angle (within 180°) of the azimuths of the sun and the moon at the time of the earthquake (graph Y-axis).

[0158] <Features Three regression formulas were created. Let them be Y10, Y11, and Y12 from left to right. The following formula is the total gravitational force |X| of the sun and the moon. Numerically, it is almost the gravitational force |X| of only the sun, so it is often thought that the sun has the highest correlation with earthquakes. However, the following three patterns can be observed.

[0159] From the formula of Y10, when the inner angle with the moon is narrow (= when the moon is in almost the same direction as the sun), or when the inner angle of the moon is wide (= when the moon is in the opposite direction to the sun), even if the gravitational force |X| is relatively weak, an earthquake of strong seismic intensity 6 occurs. From the formula of Y11, as the inner angle with the moon increases, the gravitational force of the sun |X| increases, and an earthquake occurs.

[0160] From the formula of Y12, an earthquake occurs when the inner angle is approximately 25° regardless of the gravitational force of the sun |X|.

[0161] <Numerical range of the prediction Decision Tree [Decision tree 21(6.5)] DT21(6.5) When X is the gravitational force of the sun at the time of an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6 or higher, and Y is the interior angle (within 180°) between the sun and moon at the time of the earthquake, the range in which an earthquake is possible is defined as the range in which each angle at the time of the earthquake falls within the range of the calculation results below.

[0162] Y10=1.9067x10^-20xX -107.2275 (±10) Y11=4.0909x10^-21xX-7.2178 +6.5 (±29) Y12=-3.8063x 10^-23xX +25.1579 (±10)

[0163] [Decision tree 21(7.0)]DT21(7.0) Correlation between the sum of the gravitational forces of the sun and moon along the |X| axis and the angle difference (interior angle) between the sun and moon, categorized by seismic intensity. 83B

[0164] <Meaning of the graph> Figure 25 shows the regression equation for seismic intensity 7. This graph shows the correlation between the sun's gravitational pull |X| (X-axis) at the time of a magnitude 7 earthquake and the difference in angle between the sun and moon's azimuth at the time of the earthquake (Y-axis) (*limited to within 180°).

[0165] <Features> Two regression equations were created. Let them be Y13 and Y14 from right to left. The slope has reversed, now showing a strong 6. If the sun's gravitational pull |X| is strong (3 x 10^22 or more), the interior angle is outside of 90° ± 30°, and if the sun's gravitational pull |X| is weak, the interior angle is around 120°. The sample size for seismic intensity 7 is particularly small, so the possibility of overfitting cannot be ruled out, but a nice regression equation has been created and there seems to be a correlation.

[0166] <Numerical range for the Decision Tree used for prediction> [Decision tree 21(7.0)]DT21(7.0) When X is the gravitational force of the sun at the time of a magnitude 7 earthquake, and Y is the interior angle (within 180°) between the sun and moon at the time of the earthquake, the area where each angle at the time of the earthquake falls within the range of the calculation results below is defined as a range where an earthquake is possible. Y13=-8.18308x10^-21xX +433.5072 -1.25 ±10 Y14=-9.0005x10^-21xX +317.0332 +1 ±10

[0167] 4-3 Category 3 Fields related to the gravitational pull of solar system celestial bodies Figure 26 illustrates decision trees 22 through 25.

[0168] [Decision Tree 22] DT22 Figure 26(a) is a diagram illustrating decision tree 22. When viewing the Earth's Northern Hemisphere from above, with the Earth as the coordinate origin and the Sun's position fixed at 90 degrees in the mathematical coordinate system, we determine the "maximum value of the y+ component" of the gravitational force exerted on the Earth by the Moon for seismic intensity 7 (JP7), 6+ (JP6.5), and 6- (JP6) in Japan, and define the range below this value as the (earthquake occurrence range).

[0169] (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7:7.55x10^19 or less JP6.5: 1.78x10^20 or less JP6: 2.19x10^20 or less *The law of universal gravitation F=GMm / R^2, with units G=6.67428x10^-11 m^3 kg^-1 S^-2, where M is mass, m is kg, and R is m. Units of the calculation results are omitted from here on.

[0170] [Decision Tree 23] DT23 Figure 26(b) is a diagram illustrating decision tree 23. The coordinates are the same as those of DT22. When an earthquake of magnitude 7 (JP7), magnitude 6.5 (JP6.5), or magnitude 6.0 (JP6) occurs in Japan, the maximum value of the y-component of the gravitational force exerted by the Moon on the Earth is determined, and the range below this value is defined as the range at which the earthquake occurs. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 1.85x10^20 or less JP6.5: 2.02 x 10^20 or less JP6.0: 1.97x10^20 or less

[0171] [Decision Tree 24] DT24 Figure 26(c) is a diagram illustrating decision tree 24. The coordinates are the same as those of DT22. When an earthquake of magnitude 7 (JP7), magnitude 6.5 (JP6.5), or magnitude 6.0 (JP6) occurs in Japan, the maximum value of the X+ component of the gravitational force exerted by the Moon on the Earth is determined, and the range below this value is defined as the range at which an earthquake occurs. (Scope at the time of the earthquake): JP7: 1.47 x 10^20 or less JP6.5:9.09x10^19 or less JP6:1.77x10^20 or less

[0172] [Decision Tree 25] DT25 Figure 26(d) is a diagram illustrating decision tree 25. The coordinates are the same as those of DT22. When an earthquake of magnitude 7 (JP7), magnitude 6.5 (JP6.5), or magnitude 6.0 (JP6) occurs in Japan, the "maximum value of the X-component" of the gravitational force exerted by the Moon on the Earth is determined, and anything below that value is defined as the (earthquake occurrence range). (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 1.95x10^20 or less JP6.5:1.91x10^20 or less JP6: 2.03x10^20 or less

[0173] [Decision Tree 26A] DT26A Figure 27 illustrates decision trees 26 to 30. Figure 27(a) illustrates decision tree 25. The coordinates are the same as DT22. When an earthquake of magnitude 7 (JP7), magnitude 6.5 (JP6.5), or magnitude 6.0 (JP6) occurs in Japan, the maximum value of the Y+ component of the gravitational force exerted on Earth by the planets in the solar system is determined, and anything below that is defined as the range at which the earthquake occurred. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 1.0x10^18 or less JP6.5:1.13x10^18 or less JP6: 1.3x10^18 or less

[0174] [Decision tree 27A] DT27A Figure 27(b) is a diagram illustrating decision tree 27A. The coordinates are the same as DT22. When earthquakes of magnitude 7 (JP7), magnitude 6.5 (JP6.5), and magnitude 6.0 (JP6) occur in Japan, the "maximum value of the Y-component" of the gravitational force exerted on Earth by the planets in the solar system is determined, and anything below that value is defined as the range at which earthquakes occur. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 1.0x10^18 or less JP6.5:1.94x10^18 or less JP6: 2.08x10^18 or less

[0175] [Decision Tree 28A] DT28A Figure 27(c) is a diagram illustrating decision tree 28A. The coordinates are the same as those of DT22. When earthquakes of magnitude 7 (JP7), magnitude 6.5 (JP6.5), and magnitude 6.0 (JP6) occur in Japan, the maximum value of the "X+ component" of the gravitational force exerted on Earth by the planets in the solar system is determined, and the range below this value is defined as the range at which earthquakes occur. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 1.6 x 10^16 or greater JP6.5: 1.38x10^18 or less JP6: 1.43x10^18 or less

[0176] [Decision tree 29A] DT29A Figure 27(d) is a diagram illustrating decision tree 29A. The coordinates are the same as DT22. When earthquakes of magnitude 7 (JP7), magnitude 6.5 (JP6.5), and magnitude 6.0 (JP6) occur in Japan, the "maximum value of the X-component" of the gravitational force exerted on Earth by the planets in the solar system is determined, and anything below that value is defined as the (earthquake occurrence range). (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 1.6 x 10^16 or greater JP6.5:9.63x10^17 or less JP6: 1.48x10^18 or less

[0177] [Decision Tree 30] DT30 Figure 27(e) is a diagram illustrating decision tree 30. The coordinates are the same as DT22. When an earthquake of magnitude 7 (JP7), magnitude 6.5 (JP6.5), or magnitude 6.0 (JP6) occurs in Japan, the sum of the "maximum value of the |Y+|+|Y-|+|X+|+|X-| component" of the gravitational force exerted on Earth by the planets in the solar system, i.e., DT26A~29A, is calculated, and anything below this value is defined as the range at which an earthquake occurs. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 2.0x10^18 or less JP6.5: 2.31x10^18 or less JP6: 2.36x10^18 or less

[0178] [Decision Tree 31] DT31 Figure 28 illustrates decision trees 31 to 34. Figure 28(a) illustrates decision tree 31. The coordinates are the same as DT22. The Y+ component is a fraction of DT22 / DT26A. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7:300 or less JP6.5:500 or less JP6:2000 or less

[0179] [Decision Tree 32] DT32 Figure 28(b) is a diagram illustrating decision tree 32. The coordinates are the same as those of DT22. The fraction of the Y-components is DT23 / DT27A. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 14000 or less JP6.5:4000 or less JP6:5000 or less

[0180] [Decision Tree 33] DT33 Figure 28(c) is a diagram illustrating decision tree 33. The coordinates are the same as those of DT22. The fraction of the X+ components is DT24 / DT28A. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7:9200 or less JP6.5:2000 or less JP6: 10000 or less

[0181] [Decision Tree 34] DT34 Figure 28(d) is a diagram illustrating decision tree 34. The coordinates are the same as those of DT22. The fraction of the X-components is DT25 / DT29A. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 4900 or less JP6.5:78000 or less JP6:457000 or less

[0182] [Decision Tree 35] DT35 Figure 29 illustrates decision trees 35 to 38. Figure 29(a) illustrates decision tree 35. The coordinates are the same as DT22. It is the fraction of the inverse components of Y, DT22 / DT27A. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 1500 or less JP6.5: 1500 or less JP6:210000 or less

[0183] [Decision Tree 36] DT36 Figure 29(b) is a diagram illustrating decision tree 36. The coordinates are the same as those of DT22. This is the fraction of the inverse components of Y, DT23 / DT26A. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 1000 or less JP6.5:4100 or less JP6:4000 or less

[0184] [Decision Tree 37] DT37 Figure 29(c) is a diagram illustrating decision tree 37. The coordinates are the same as those of DT22. This is the fraction of the inverse components of X, DT24 / DT29A. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7:300 or less JP6.5: 1000 or less JP6: 16000 or less

[0185] [Decision tree 38] DT38 Figure 29(d) is a diagram illustrating decision tree 38. The coordinates are the same as those of DT22. This is the fraction of the inverse components of X, DT25 / DT28A. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7:3200 or less JP6.5:4500 or less JP6:9000 or less

[0186] [Decision Tree 39] DT39 Figure 30 is a diagram illustrating decision tree 39. The coordinates are the same as DT22. The combined force of the solar system planets (Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune) is (Ysum^2 +Xsum^2)^1 / 2, where Ysum is the Y± component ((Y+)+(Y-)) and Xsum is the X± component ((X+)+(X-)). Ysum=DT26A-DT27A, Xsum=DT28A-DT29A (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 1.5x10^18 or less JP6.5: 1.89x10^18 or less JP6:2.03x10^18 or less

[0187] [Decision Tree 40] DT40 Figure 31 illustrates decision trees 40 to 43. Figure 31(a) illustrates decision tree 40. The coordinates are the same as DT22. This represents the "Y+ component of gravitational force exerted by a solar system planet on Earth" when the Y+ component of the Moon's gravitational force on Earth is 0 (the Moon is in the 3rd or 4th quadrant), or the "Y- component of gravitational force exerted by a solar system planet on Earth" when the Y+ component of the Moon's gravitational force on Earth is + (the Moon is in the 1st or 2nd quadrant). (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 9.68x10^1 or less JP6.5:1.13x10^18 or less JP6:1.04x10^18 or less

[0188] [Decision Tree 41] DT41 Figure 31(b) is a diagram illustrating decision tree 41. The coordinates are the same as DT22. It represents the "X+ component of gravitational force exerted by the solar system planets on Earth" when the X+ component of the Moon's gravitational force on Earth is 0 (the Moon is in the 2nd or 3rd quadrant), or the "X- component of gravitational force exerted by the solar system planets on Earth" when the X+ component of the Moon's gravitational force on Earth is + (the Moon is in the 1st or 4th quadrant). (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 1.5x10^18 or less JP6.5: 1.38x10^18 or less JP6: 1.48x10^18 or less

[0189] [Decision tree 42] DT42 Figure 31(c) is a diagram illustrating decision tree 42. The coordinates are the same as DT22. This represents the combined gravitational force of the solar system planets in the same quadrant as the Moon. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 1.64x1^18 or less JP6.5: 1.97 x 10^18 or less JP6: 2.12x10^18 or less

[0190] [Decision Tree 43] DT43 Figure 31(d) is a diagram illustrating decision tree 43. The coordinates are the same as those of DT22. It shows the combined gravitational force of the Moon and the solar system planets in the quadrant. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7:1.6x10^18 or less JP6.5: 1.44x10^18 or less JP6:1.7x10^18 or less

[0191] [Decision Tree 44] DT44 Figure 32 is a diagram illustrating decision tree 44. The coordinates are the same as DT22. It represents the fractional gravitational force of the solar system planets on X+ as a percentage of the Moon's gravitational force when the Moon is on X+, or the fractional gravitational force of the solar system planets on X- as a percentage of the Moon's gravitational force when the Moon is on X-. Figure 32 is an example. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7:9200 or less JP6.5:78000 or less JP6: Not applicable

[0192] [Decision Tree 45] DT45 Figure 33 illustrates decision trees 45 through 48. Figure 33(a) illustrates decision tree 45. The coordinates are the same as DT22. This is the result of subtracting the gravitational pull of the solar system planets at Y+ from the gravitational pull of the Moon when the Moon is at Y+. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7:7.7x10^19 or less JP6.5: 1.78x10^20 or less JP6: 2.19x10^20 or less

[0193] [Decision tree 46] DT46 Figure 33(b) is a diagram illustrating decision tree 46. The coordinates are the same as those of DT22. It is calculated by subtracting the gravitational pull of the solar system planets at Y- from the gravitational pull of the Moon when the Moon is at Y-. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 1.85x10^20 or less JP6.5: 2.02 x 10^20 or less JP6: 1.97 x 10^20 or less

[0194] [Decision Tree 47] DT47 Figure 33(c) is a diagram illustrating decision tree 47. The coordinates are the same as those of DT22. It is calculated by subtracting the gravitational pull of the solar system planets at X+ from the gravitational pull of the Moon when the Moon is at X+. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 1.48x10^20 or less JP6.5:9.10x10^20 or less JP6:1.77x10^20 or less

[0195] [Decision tree 48] DT48 Figure 33(d) is a diagram illustrating decision tree 48. The coordinates are the same as those of DT22. It is calculated by subtracting the gravitational pull of the solar system planets at X- from the gravitational pull of the Moon when the Moon is at X-. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 1.96x10^20 or less JP6.5: 1.92x10^20 or less JP6: 2.03x10^20 or less

[0196] [Decision Tree 49] DT49 The coordinates are the same as DT22. It is the sum of DT45 + 46 + 47 + 48. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 2.23x10^20 or less JP6.5: 2.12x10^20 or less JP6: 2.30x10^20 or less

[0197] [Decision Tree 50] DT50 Figure 34 illustrates decision trees 50 and 51. Figure 34(a) illustrates decision tree 50. The coordinates are the same as DT22. When the moon is at Y+, it is DT22 + DT27A. When the moon is at Y-, it is DT23 + DT26A. Figure 34 is the diagram for DT22 + DT27A. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 1.86x10^20 or less JP6.5:2.03x10^20 or less JP6: 2.18x10^20 or less

[0198] [Decision Tree 51] DT51 Figure 34(b) is a diagram illustrating decision tree 51. The coordinates are the same as DT22. When the moon is in X+, DT24+DT29A. When the moon is in X-, DT25+DT28A. Figure 34 is a diagram of DT25+DT28A. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 1.95x10^20 or less JP6.5:1.91x10^20 or less JP6: 2.03x10^20 or less

[0199] [Decision tree 52] DT52 The coordinates are the same as DT22. It is the sum of DT50 + DT51. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 2.24x10^20 or less JP6.5: 2.13x10^20 or less JP6: 2.29x10^20 or less

[0200] [Decision Tree 53] DT53 Figure 35 illustrates decision trees 50 and 51. Figure 35 also illustrates decision tree 53. The coordinates are the same as DT22. When a straight line connects Jupiter and Earth, and the angle θ ≤ 180°, this is the Y+ component of Jupiter's gravitational force. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7:9.12x10^17 or less JP6.5:9.55x10^17 or less JP6:9.56x10^17 or less

[0201] [Decision Tree 54] DT54 DT53 takes Tokyo's latitude into account. When θ is the altitude of Jupiter as seen from Tokyo, the calculation result of DT54 = DT53 is xCos(θ)^2. *Since the Y-axis of the solar system's plane is the same as the horizontal axis, it is cosine. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7:6.8x10^17 or less JP6.5: 7.47 x 10^17 or less JP6: 9.28x10^17 or less

[0202] [Decision Tree 55] DT55 Figure 36 is a diagram illustrating decision tree 55. The coordinates are the same as those of DT22. When a straight line connects Jupiter and Earth, the Y-component of Jupiter's gravitational force is given when 180° < angle θ < 360°. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7:9.12x10^17 or less JP6.5: 1.82x10^18 or less JP6: 2.08x10^18 or less

[0203] [Decision tree 56] DT56 DT55 takes Tokyo's latitude into account, and when θ is the altitude of Jupiter as seen from Tokyo, the calculation result of DT56 = DT55 is xCos(θ)^2. Since the Y-axis of the solar system's plane is the same as the horizontal axis, it is cosine. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7:6.8x10^17 or less JP6.5: 1.37x10^18 or less JP6: 2.07 x 10^18 or less

[0204] [Decision Tree 57] DT57 Figure 37 is a diagram illustrating decision tree 57. The coordinates are the same as those of DT22. When a straight line is drawn between Jupiter and Earth, the X+ component of Jupiter's gravitational pull is given when 0° ≤ angle ω ≤ 90° or 270° ≤ angle ω < 360°. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 1.2 x 10^17 or greater JP6.5:1.3x10^18 or less JP6: 1.38x10^18 or less

[0205] This calculation takes Tokyo's latitude into account for DT57. When θ is the altitude of Jupiter as seen from Tokyo, DT58 = DT57, which is xCos(ω)^2. Since the X-axis of the solar system's plane is the same as the horizontal axis, it is cosine. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 4.6 x 10^16 or greater JP6.5:1.26x10^18 or less JP6: 1.28x10^18 or less

[0206] [Decision Tree 59] DT59 Figure 38 is a diagram illustrating decision tree 59. The coordinates are the same as those of DT22. When a straight line connects Jupiter and Earth, the x-component of Jupiter's gravity is given when 90° ≤ angle ω < 270°. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 1.2 x 10^17 or greater JP6.5: 7.6x10^17 or less JP6: 1.43x10^18 or less

[0207] [Decision Tree 60] DT60 DT59 takes Tokyo's latitude into account, and when θ is the altitude of Jupiter as seen from Tokyo, DT60 = DT59 calculation result x Cos(ω)^2. Since the X-axis of the solar system's plane is the same as the horizontal axis, it is cosine. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 4.6 x 10^16 or greater JP6.5:7.08x10^17 or less JP6: 1.07 x 10^18 or less

[0208] [Decision Tree 61] DT61 The coordinates are the same as DT22. DT61 = the sum of the observed values ​​of DT53 + 55 + 57 + 59. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 8.0x10^17 or more and 1.8x10^18 or less JP6.5: 1.87x10^18 or less JP6: 2.14x10^18 or less

[0209] [Decision Tree 62] DT62 The coordinates are the same as DT22. DT62 = the sum of the observed values ​​of DT54 + 56 + 58 + 60. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 1.4x10^17 or more and 1.2x10^18 or less JP6.5:1.71x10^18 or less JP6: 2.08x10^18 or less

[0210] [Decision Tree 63] DT63 Figure 39 is a diagram illustrating decision tree 63. The coordinates are the same as those of DT22. The question is: what will the Earth's position be on July 2nd, based on the Earth's position at the time of the earthquake? DT63 = -E position -90 E position: The angle of the Earth at coordinate AbDg, where the sun is the origin, and the Earth's position is 0° on July 2nd and 180° on January 2nd. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 101° or less, 150° or more and 216° or less, 336° or more JP6.5: 58° or less, 150° or more and 187° or less, 237° or more JP6: 50° or less, 76° or more

[0211] [Decision Tree 64] DT64 Figure 40 is a diagram illustrating decision tree 64. The coordinates are the same as DT22. DT64 = Sin(DT63), and it is a continuation of DT63. From the results below, there appears to be a trend. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: -0.55 or more -0.1 or less, 0.23 or more and 0.42 or less, 0.86 or more JP6.5: -0.82 or less, -0.63 or more, 0.47 or less, 0.64 or more JP6: Not applicable

[0212] [Decision Tree 65] DT65 The coordinates are the same as DT22. DT65 = Sin(DT64)^2. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 0.3 or less, 0.83 or more JP6.5: 0.65 or less, 0.75 or more JP6: Not applicable

[0213] [Decision Tree 66] DT66 Figure 41 is a diagram illustrating decision tree 66. The coordinate system is coordinate AbDg. Coordinate AbDg is defined as follows: Assuming a year has 365 days, with the sun as the origin, aphelion is July 2nd (mathematical coordinate 0°), +92 days later (mathematical coordinate 90°), perihelion is January 2nd (mathematical coordinate 180°) +91 days later, +90 days later (mathematical coordinate 270°), and +92 days later it returns to July 2nd. Although the Earth's orbit around the sun is precisely an ellipse, it will be represented as a circle graphically. Furthermore, the Earth's angular velocity is assumed to be (90 / 92)° per day when the Earth is in the 1st and 4th quadrants, (90 / 91)° per day when in the 2nd quadrant, and (90 / 90)° per day when in the 3rd quadrant. This coordinate system will be called coordinate AbDg. Using this coordinate system AbDg, we can determine the Earth's angle at the time of the earthquake under investigation. If the Earth's angle was 43° at the time of the earthquake, we define the range (earthquake occurrence range) as the Earth's angle plus a tolerance of ±5° between 38° and 48°. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 54° or more and 120° or less, 169° or more and 205° or less, 238° or more and 293° or less JP6.5: 33° or less, 82° or more and 120° or less, 212° or more JP6: 194° or less, 220° or more *Note: This made it possible to create a regression equation.

[0214] [Decision Tree 67] DT67 In coordinate system AbDg, the Earth's position (angle X) at the time of the earthquake is given by DT67 = CosX^2 We seek. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 0.3 or less, 0.83 or more JP6.5: 0.65 or less, 0.75 or more JP6: Not applicable

[0215] [Decision Tree 68] DT68 Figure 42 is a diagram illustrating decision tree 68. It uses the coordinate AbDg. AbDg represents the position of the moon at coordinate AbDg when the earthquake under investigation occurred. For earthquakes of magnitude 6 or higher in Japan, regardless of when they occur, the moon is at an angle other than around 90° or 270°, as shown in Fig*. The following parameters were used to investigate whether they were related to this coordinate AbDg. DT68 = Earth's position (angle) at AbDg + lunar age x 12.08 + 180. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 16° ​​or more and 56° or less, 146° or more and 222° or less JP6.5: 68° or less, 138° or more JP6: Not applicable Developed into regression equations Y8 and Y9 → DT19, 20

[0216] [Decision Tree 69] DT69 DT68 = COS(DT68). (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: -0.55 or less, 0.71 or more JP6.5:-0.44 or less, 0.2 or more JP6: Not applicable

[0217] [Decision Tree 70] DT70 The coordinate system AbDg is used. DT70 = Cos(90 + (monthly x 12.0805) - DT63) is used to convert the coordinate system to AbDg, and the influence of the direction of the moon on July 2nd at the time of the earthquake is expressed as a cosine function. The closer the absolute value is to 1 (-1 or 1), the higher the probability of a correlation. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: -0.74 or less, -0.08 or more and 0.12 or less, 0.38 or more and 0.58 or less, 0.83 or more JP6.5: -0.38 or less, -0.19 or more JP6: -0.44 or less, -0.26 or more

[0218] [Decision Tree 71] DT71 We use the coordinate system AbDg. DT71 = DT70^2. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: -0.33 or less, 0.61 or more JP6.5: Not applicable JP6: Not applicable

[0219] [Decision Tree 72] DT72 We use coordinates AbDg. The gravitational influence on Earth from the solar system is almost entirely due to Jupiter, so we will explore the influence of Jupiter alone. Figure 43 is a diagram illustrating decision tree 72. When the angle of Jupiter at coordinate DT22 is denoted as Jdeg, the formula SIN(DT63-Jdeg) is used to convert it to coordinate AbDg, and the degree of influence of Jupiter's direction on July 2nd at the time of the earthquake is expressed as a sine wave. A value closer to 0 indicates a higher probability of a correlation. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: -0.8 or less, 0.43 or more JP6.5:-0.08 or less, 0.27 or more JP6: -0.02 or less, 0.25 or more

[0220] [Decision Tree 73] DT73 Figure 44 illustrates decision trees 73 to 76. Figure 44(a) illustrates decision tree 73. The coordinate system AbDg is used. The gravitational influence on Earth from the planets of the solar system is investigated. The formula SIN(DT63)xDT26A was used to find Y+ on the coordinate system AbDg. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7:6.0x10^17 or less JP6.5: 7.6x10^17 or less JP6:8.39x10^17 or less

[0221] [Decision Tree 74] DT74 Figure 44(b) is a diagram illustrating decision tree 74. It uses the coordinate system AbDg. It investigates the gravitational influence that Earth experiences from the planets of the solar system. The formula SIN(DT63)xDT27A was used to determine Y+ on the coordinate system AbDg. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7:3.6x10^17 or less JP6.5:4.1x10^17 or less JP6: 3.47 x 10^17 or less

[0222] [Decision Tree 75] DT75 Figure 44(c) is a diagram illustrating decision tree 75. It uses the coordinate system AbDg. It investigates the gravitational influence that Earth experiences from the planets of the solar system. The formula SIN(DT63)xDT28A was used to examine X+ on the coordinate system AbDg. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 5.9X10^17 or less JP6.5:1.8x10^17 or less JP6:1.01x10^18 or less

[0223] [Decision tree 76] DT76 Figure 44(d) is a diagram illustrating decision tree 76. DT76 (formerly 48 / 81) uses the coordinate system AbDg. It explores the gravitational influence on Earth from the planets of the solar system. The formula SIN(DT63)xDT29A is used to examine X- on the coordinate system AbDg. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 1.5x10^18 or less JP6.5:5.5x10^16 or less JP6: 1.47 x 10^18 or less

[0224] [Decision Tree 26B] DT26B It is DT26A / DT30. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 0.28 or less and 0.43 or more JP6.5: 0.27 or less and 0.65 or more JP6: 0.9 or less

[0225] [Decision tree 26C] DT26C This is the maximum value for DT26A / DT30. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 0.33 or less JP6.5: 0.39 or less JP6: 0.45 or less

[0226] [Decision Tree 26D] DT26D The coordinates are the same as DT22. Let the sum of each of the solar system planets (Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn) be one fictional planet, and connect the fictional planet to Earth with a straight line. With angles 0° ≤ A ≤ 180°, and assuming the altitude of each planet as seen from Tokyo is θ, then DT26D = Y of each planet + the sum of the components xCos(θ)^2. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 8.1x10^17 or less JP6.5:8.06x10^17 or less JP6:9.78x10^17 or less

[0227] [Decision tree 27B] DT27B It is DT27A / DT30. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 0.59 or less JP6.5: Not applicable JP6: 0.24 or less, or 0.35 or more.

[0228] [Decision tree 27C] DT27C This is the maximum value for DT27A / DT30. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 0.35 or less JP6.5: 0.64 or less JP6: 0.69 or less

[0229] [Decision Tree 27D] DT27D The coordinates are the same as DT22. Let the sum of each of the solar system planets (Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn) be one fictional planet, and connect the fictional planet to Earth with a straight line. If θ is the altitude of each planet as seen from Tokyo, with angle A < 360°, then DT27D = the sum of each planet's Y component xCos(θ)^2. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 7.0x10^17 or less JP6.5:1.46x10^18 or less JP6: 2.07 x 10^18 or less

[0230] [Decision Tree 28B]DT28B It is DT28A / DT30. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 0.19 or less 0.42 or more JP6.5: 0.27 or less 0.65 or more JP6: Not applicable

[0231] [Decision Tree 28C]DT28C This is the maximum value for DT28A / DT30. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 0.24 or less JP6.5: 0.47 or less JP6: 0.49 or less

[0232] [Decision Tree 28D]DT28D The coordinates are the same as DT22. Let the sum of each of the solar system planets (Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn) be one fictional planet, and connect the fictional planet and Earth with a straight line. When the altitude of each planet as seen from Tokyo is θ, given that 0° ≤ angle A ≤ 90° or 270° ≤ angle A ≤ 360°, then DT28D = the sum of each planet's X + component xCos(θ)^2. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7:5.56x10^17 or less JP6.5:1.26x10^18 or less JP6: 1.28x10^18 or less

[0233] [Decision Tree 29B] DT29B It is DT29A / DT30. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 0.17 or less and 0.32 or more JP6.5: 0.47 or less JP6: Not applicable

[0234] [Decision Tree 29C]DT29C This is the maximum value for DT29A / DT30. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 0.49 or less JP6.5: 0.35 or less JP6: 0.51 or less

[0235] [Decision Tree 29D]DT29D The coordinates are the same as DT22. Let the sum of each of the solar system planets (Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn) be one fictional planet, and connect the fictional planet and Earth with a straight line. When the altitude of each planet as seen from Tokyo is θ, given that 90° < angle A < 90° or 270° < angle A < 360°, then DT29D = each planet X + the sum of the components xCos(θ)^2. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7:8.27x10^17 or less JP6.5:7.08x10^17 or less JP6: 1.11x10^18 or less

[0236] [Decision Tree 77] DT77 Figure 45 illustrates decision tree 77. Using the same coordinates as DT22 and AbDg, the maximum value of the Y component of the gravitational pull of the solar system planets on coordinate AbDg was ultimately determined. (Since coordinate AbDg is a coordinate system specific to this specification, it is necessary to convert it from the same coordinates as DT22 using a calculation formula). Let Ysum be the Y component of the sum of the gravitational forces of the solar system planets at the time of an earthquake on coordinate DT22 (calculated with + for positive and - for negative), and Xsum be the X component. Let arctan(Ysum / Xsum) be (1). Let (2) be the angle of the Earth at the time of the earthquake on coordinate AbDg. The sum of the gravitational forces of the solar system planets is a scalar (Ysum^2 + Xsum^2)^1 / 2. The angle of the sum of the gravitational forces of the solar system planets on coordinate AbDg is (1) + (2) + 90°. D The Y component we are looking for is (Ysum^2+Xsum^2)^1 / 2 x Sin((1)+(2)+90°)^2 (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 1.4x10^18 or less JP6.5:9.36x10^17 or less JP6: 1.71x10^18 or less

[0237] [Decision Tree 78] DT78 Figure 46 illustrates decision tree 78. Using the same coordinates as DT22 and AbDg, the maximum value of the X component of the gravitational pull of the solar system planets on coordinate AbDg is ultimately determined. (Since coordinate AbDg is a coordinate system specific to this specification, it needs to be converted from the same coordinates as DT22 using a calculation formula.) Let Ysum be the Y component and Xsum be the X component of the sum of the gravitational forces of the solar system planets at the time of an earthquake on coordinate DT22 (where + is positive and - is negative). Let arctan(Ysum / Xsum) be (1). Let (2) be the angle of the Earth at the time of the earthquake on coordinate AbDg. The sum of the gravitational forces of the solar system planets is a scalar (Ysum^2 + Xsum^2)^1 / 2. The angle of the sum of the gravitational forces of the solar system planets on coordinate AbDg is (1) + (2) + 90°. D The X component we are looking for is (Ysum^2+Xsum^2)^1 / 2 x Cos((1)+(2)+90°)^2 (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7:6.4x10^17 or less JP6.5:1.77x10^18 or less JP6: 1.61x10^18 or less

[0238] [Decision Tree 79] DT79 Figure 47 illustrates decision tree 79. Using the same coordinates as DT22 and AbDg, the maximum value of the Y+ component of the gravitational pull of the solar system planets on coordinate AbDg is ultimately determined. (Since coordinate AbDg is a coordinate system specific to this specification, it needs to be converted from the same coordinates as DT22 using a calculation formula.) When an earthquake occurs, if the angle of the Earth on the coordinate system AbDg is Eω, When A Eω=0°, it is equivalent to DT28A. B 0° <Eω<90°のとき、(DT27A+DT28A)x Sin(Eω)^2 When C Eω = 90°, it is equivalent to DT27A. D 90° <Eω<180°のとき(DT27A+DT29A)x Sin(Eω)^2 When Eω = 180°, it is equivalent to DT29A. F 180° <Eω<270°のとき(DT26A+DT29A)x Sin(Eω)^2 When G Eω = 270°, it is equivalent to DT26A. H 270° <Eω<360°のとき、(DT26A+DT28A)x Sin(Eω)^2 (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7:9.13x10^17 or less JP6.5:1.06x10^18 or less JP6: 2.25x10^18 or less

[0239] [Decision Tree 80] DT80 Figure 48 illustrates decision tree 80. Using the same coordinates as DT22 and AbDg, the maximum value of the Y-component of the gravitational pull of the solar system planets on coordinate AbDg is ultimately determined. (Since coordinate AbDg is a coordinate system specific to this specification, it needs to be converted from the same coordinates as DT22 using a calculation formula.) When an earthquake occurs, if the angle of the Earth on coordinate AbDg is Eω, When A Eω=0°, it is equivalent to DT29A. B 0° <Eω<90°のとき、(DT26A+DT29A)x Sin(Eω)^2 When C Eω = 90°, it is equivalent to DT26A. D 90° <Eω<180°のとき(DT26A+DT28A)x Sin(Eω)^2 When Eω = 180°, it is equivalent to DT28A. F 180° <Eω<270°のとき(DT27A+DT28A)x Sin(Eω)^2 When G Eω = 270°, it is equivalent to DT27A. H 270° <Eω<360°のとき、(DT27A+DT29A)x Sin(Eω)^2 (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 1.58x10^18 or less JP6.5: 1.56x10^18 or less JP6: 1.62x10^18 or less

[0240] [Decision Tree 81] DT81 Figure 49 is a diagram illustrating decision tree 81. Using the same coordinates as DT22 and AbDg, the maximum value of the X+ component of the gravitational force of the solar system planets on coordinate AbDg is ultimately determined. (Since coordinate AbDg is a coordinate specific to this specification, it is necessary to convert it from the same coordinates as DT22 using a calculation formula.) When an earthquake occurs, if the angle of the Earth on coordinate AbDg is Eω, When A Eω=0°, it is equivalent to DT27A. B 0° <Eω<90°のとき、(DT27A+DT29A)x Cos(Eω)^2 When C Eω = 90°, it is equivalent to DT29A. D 90° <Eω<180°のとき(DT26A+DT29A)x Cos(Eω)^2 When Eω = 180°, it is equivalent to DT26A. F 180° <Eω<270°のとき(DT26A+DT28A)x Cos(Eω)^2 When G Eω = 270°, it is equivalent to DT28A. H 270° <Eω<360°のとき、(DT27A+DT28A)x Cos(Eω)^2 (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7:1.6x10^18 or less JP6.5: 1.85x10^18 or less JP6: 1.79x10^18 or less

[0241] [Decision Tree 82] DT82 Figure 50 illustrates decision tree 82. Using the same coordinates as DT22 and AbDg, the maximum value of the X-component of the gravitational pull of the solar system planets on coordinate AbDg is ultimately determined. (Since coordinate AbDg is a coordinate system specific to this specification, it needs to be converted from the same coordinates as DT22 using a calculation formula.) When an earthquake occurs, if the angle of the Earth on the coordinate system AbDg is Eω, When A Eω=0°, it is equivalent to DT26A. B 0° <Eω<90°のとき、(DT26A+DT28A)x Cos(Eω)^2 When C Eω = 90°, it is equivalent to DT28A. D 90° <Eω<180°のとき(DT27A+DT28A)x Cos(Eω)^2 When Eω = 180°, it is equivalent to DT27A. F 180° <Eω<270°のとき(DT27A+DT29A)x Cos(Eω)^2 When G Eω = 270°, it is equivalent to DT29A. H 270° <Eω<360°のとき、(DT26A+DT29A)x Cos(Eω)^2 (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 3.8x10^17 or less JP6.5:7.9x10^17 or less JP6: 1.69x10^18 or less

[0242] [Decision Tree 83] DT83 Figure 51 is a diagram illustrating decision tree 83. It shows the meridian altitude in Tokyo on the day the earthquake occurred. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 42° or less, or 65° or more. JP6.5: 42° or less, or 65° or more. JP6: Not applicable

[0243] [Decision Tree 84] DT84 Figure 52 is a diagram illustrating decision tree 84. The coordinates are the same as those of DT22. When the sun is fixed at 90° in mathematical coordinates, what is the angle (interior angle) between the sun and the moon at the time of an earthquake? (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 26° or more and 46° or less, 156° or more and 212° or less, 266° or more and 333° or less JP6.5: 25° or more and 65° or less, 98° or more and 283° or less JP6: 17° or more and 347° or less Further development of this led to the development of a regression equation.

[0244] [Decision Tree 85] DT85 The scalar of the Moon's vertical gravitational force is DT9+|DT10|. (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: 0 or 1.34 x 10^20 or less JP6.5: 1.67x10^20 or less JP6: 1.82x10^20 or less

[0245] [Decision Tree 30B] DT30B The sum of the gravitational scalars of each solar system planet and the attenuated scalars based on the altitude of each planet (Sin) relative to Tokyo. (Sum of the gravitational scalar of each planet x the altitude of each planet (Sin)) DT26D+DT27D+DT28D+DT29D (Area of ​​activity at the time of the earthquake) JP7: Unnecessary JP6.5: 1.86x10^18 or less JP6: 2.2x10^18 or less

[0246] 5. Explanation of earthquake prediction methods Figure 53 is an illustrative diagram of the earthquake prediction process.

[0247] First, we define the area to be predicted. For the purposes of this discussion, we will assume it is within Japan.

[0248] Secondly, a range is defined from past records of events in the region (e.g., from 1995 to the present) (at least one day, preferably less than one hour) so that the calculation results of decision trees 1 to 103 include all values ​​for the predicted seismic intensity (each seismic intensity from 6-weak to 7). A value of 1 is entered if the result falls within this defined range, and 0 otherwise. Consequently, all decision trees at the time of an earthquake will have a value of 1, which is defined as the earthquake occurrence range and will be called "TP" (True Positive) (Past in the table), indicating that an earthquake actually occurred.

[0249] On the other hand, while most other dates and times have fewer than 103 entries of 1, there are cases where, even in dates and times when no earthquake occurred, all entries are 1, or 1 is recorded in the decision tree for each seismic intensity. This represents the earthquake occurrence range, but we will call this "FN" (false negative), which indicates that no earthquake actually occurred.

[0250] Thirdly, the decision tree is similarly evaluated for future periods, and either 1 or 0 is entered. Then there exists a certain year and date where all decision trees are 1, or where all the predetermined decision trees for each seismic intensity are 1. For example, for a seismic intensity of 7, on December 22, 2029 (Future in the table), there is a probability of TP / (TP+FN) that an earthquake of that predicted seismic intensity (7) may occur in the specified region at this year and date. This is an earthquake prediction algorithm.

[0251] Furthermore, when we examine the dates and times that are missing one or two decision trees from the total number of decision trees for the predicted seismic intensity, we find that there are decision trees that are slightly outside the defined range. For these dates and times, although the probability is lower than TP / (TP+FN), it is important to note that there is still a possibility of an earthquake occurring due to the small number of earthquake occurrence samples.

[0252] Regarding experimental earthquake prediction. The experimental earthquake prediction will begin in 2021, and we will refer to the first version as Verα, the second as Verβ, and the third as Verγ. Verα accurately predicted the magnitude 6+ earthquakes on February 13, 2021 (Fukushima), March 16, 2022 (Fukushima), and May 5, 2023 (Ishikawa) (one day later), but failed to predict the magnitude 7 earthquake in Ishikawa Prefecture on January 1, 2024. Therefore, we improved it to Verβ (changing the scope of the definition), and subsequently predicted the magnitude 6+ earthquake (actually magnitude 6-) on April 17, 2024 (see the previous application of this application), but since the probability was 20-50%, we changed the unit from daily to hourly, etc. This invention has been improved to Verγ, making it possible to predict earthquakes of magnitude 6-minus. The accuracy rate for predicting magnitude 6-minus earthquakes is 33%, for magnitude 6-plus earthquakes it is 59%, and for magnitude 7 earthquakes it is 100%. We believe that some of these earthquake predictions will occur with this probability. Please verify this for yourself. The results in the next section contain realistic future earthquake predictions for magnitude 6-minus and above in Japan.

[0253] An earthquake of magnitude 6- (33% accuracy rate; roughly equivalent to one correct prediction out of three) 2025 (1) March 8 to July 5 (2) October 28 to November 16 2026 (3) June 11 to October 1 (4) November 9 to November 13 2027 (5) March 17 to November 30 2028 (6) April 25 to May 19 (7) June 21 to December 17

[0254] Earthquake intensity 6+ (59% accuracy rate; roughly equivalent to 3 correct predictions out of 5) 2027 (1) October 7th 21:00±1h 2028 (2) September 27th 14-16, 20-21:00 ±1h each (3) October 26th 21:00 ±1h

[0255] Earthquake magnitude 7 (100% accuracy rate; imagine predicting it correctly 5 out of 5 times) It won't be available until 2028. *Due to the small sample size, the probability should decrease slightly in the future. December 22, 2029 (1) 5 o'clock ±1h

[0256] 6. RESULTS 6-1 Seismic Intensity 6-minus: Prediction and Results Figures 54 and 55 are tables illustrating the prediction and actual results for an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6-minus. The item on the left is the predicted date (time omitted) when an earthquake of magnitude 6 or lower was predicted to occur. A blank space indicates a predicted period of non-occurrence, where the event is not expected to occur. The intermediate items are the year, date, and region where an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6-minus actually occurred. The items on the right show the evaluation of each prediction using confusion matrices (TP, FN, TN, FP). AccuracyCorrect answer rate (overall accuracy rate) 0.67 Recall rate (occurrence accuracy rate) 0.33 Precision Accuracy (capture rate) 1.00 Generally, what people focus on most is the earthquake detection rate, and the higher the number, the better the performance. However, the inventor is committed to achieving a detection rate of 1.00 (not missing any earthquakes) while also aiming for a high earthquake detection rate.

[0257] If only earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 6-weak are predicted, then all earthquakes that occur will be classified as 6-weak. For example, it may be possible to predict earthquakes that were called aftershocks before and after a magnitude 7 earthquake. In previous versions α and β, when predicting a seismic intensity of 6-weak, magnitudes 6-strong and 7 were also treated as 6-weak or higher, but in version γ, they are predicted separately. For example, a magnitude 7 earthquake occurred on January 17, 1995, but there were no predictions for magnitudes 6-weak or 6-strong, and none occurred. However, for other magnitude 7 earthquakes, predictions for magnitudes 6-weak and 6-strong were made, and they did occur. It is suspected that the strength of earthquake shaking (seismic intensity) is not a matter of chance, but that magnitudes 6-weak and 6-strong may have occurred as they were destined to, and the regression equation may correspond to this.

[0258] Overall accuracy rate (accuracy rate for predicting occurrence, non-occurrence, and both): 67% Occurrence accuracy (Occurrence / Occurrence + Number of predicted occurrences that did not occur) 33% Capture rate (Number of predicted occurrences / Number of predicted occurrences + Number of unpredictable occurrences) 100% It has detected all earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 6-minus. Miss rate (no occurrences / predicted occurrences): 67% The image is that out of three predictions, two will not result in an earthquake.

[0259] 6-2 Seismic Intensity 6+ Prediction and Results Figure 56 illustrates the prediction and results of an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6+. The left column shows the year and date when an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6+ was predicted to occur, with blank spaces indicating a predicted period during which it is not expected to occur. The middle column shows the date, time, and region where an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6+ actually occurred. The right column shows the evaluation of each prediction using the confusion matrix (TP, FN, TN, FP). AccuracyCorrect answer rate (overall accuracy rate) 0.80 Recall rate (occurrence accuracy rate) 0.59 Precision Accuracy (capture rate) 1.00 If only earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 6 or higher are predicted, then all but one of the earthquakes that occurred were indeed of a seismic intensity of 6 or higher. For example, it may be possible to predict earthquakes that were called aftershocks around the time of a seismic intensity of 7. In previous versions (Vers. α and β), when predicting a magnitude 6+ earthquake, magnitude 7 was also treated as magnitude 6+, but in Ver. γ, they are predicted separately. For example, a magnitude 7 earthquake occurred on January 17, 1995, but there were no predictions for magnitude 6- or 6+ earthquakes, nor did they occur. However, for other magnitude 7 earthquakes, predictions for magnitude 6- and 6+ earthquakes were made, and these earthquakes did occur. It is suspected that the strength of earthquake shaking (magnitude) is not a matter of chance, and that there may be reasons why magnitude 6- and 6+ earthquakes occur, and the regression equation may be related to that. Two earthquakes with a magnitude of 6 or higher are predicted for the period from October 2027 to 2028. The probability of these occurring is 59%, meaning there is a high probability that one of the two will occur. This provides an opportunity to verify this prediction method.

[0260] Overall accuracy rate (accuracy rate for predictions of occurrence, non-occurrence, and both): 80% Overall performance Accuracy of prediction (occurrence / occurrence + number of predicted occurrences that did not occur): 59% Capture rate (Number of predicted occurrences / Number of predicted occurrences + Number of unpredictable occurrences) 100% It has detected all earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 6 or higher. Miss rate (no occurrences / predicted occurrences): 41%

[0261] 6-3 Seismic Intensity 7 Prediction and Results Figure 57 illustrates the prediction and results of an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 7. The left column shows the year and date when an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 7 is predicted to occur, with blank spaces indicating a predicted period during which it is not expected to occur. The middle column shows the date, time, and region where an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 7 actually occurred. The right column shows the evaluation of each prediction using confusion matrices (TP, FN, TN, FP). AccuracyCorrect answer rate (overall accuracy rate) 1.00 Recall rate (accuracy rate) 1.00 Precision Accuracy (capture rate) 1.00 If only earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 7 are predicted, then all earthquakes that occur will have a seismic intensity of 7. When calculating only for earthquakes of magnitude 7, and looking at future predictions, one earthquake of magnitude 7 was predicted for around 5:00 AM on December 22, 2029.

[0262] Overall accuracy rate (accuracy rate for predictions of occurrence, non-occurrence, and both): 100% Occurrence accuracy (Occurrence / Occurrence + Number of predicted occurrences that did not occur) 100% The image shows that out of 7 predicted earthquakes, 7 actually occurred. Capture rate (Number of predicted occurrences / Number of predicted occurrences + Number of unpredictable occurrences) 100% It is detecting all earthquakes of magnitude 7. Miss rate (no occurrences / predicted occurrences): 0% This is like predicting an earthquake seven times and finding that none of them actually occur.

[0263] 7. DISCUSSION Regarding the contents of Category 1, DT1 to DT16. This not only explains the decision-making criteria of the decision tree, but also explains the earthquake mechanism, as earthquake predictions can be made with the probabilities mentioned above based on the contents of multiple decision trees. In other words, it can be said that when the global environment and epicenter are (1) to (3), an earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher will occur.

[0264] Category 1: Major Decision Trees - Fields related to the gravitational pull of the sun and moon DT1-16 (1) When the gravitational scalars of celestial bodies in the solar system that affect Earth, especially the Sun and the Moon, are 3.5 to 15 percent less than their respective maximum values. (2) When the gravitational pull of the sun and moon affecting the Earth is reduced along the vertical axis of the Earth's surface at the epicenter. (3) When, inevitably, the majority of the gravitational forces of the sun and moon that affect the Earth are acting along the horizontal axis.

[0265] Regarding Category 2, specifically DT19 through DT26. From the main decision trees, a regression equation was discovered showing a correlation between items (4) to (7), and it was found that earthquakes with greater seismic intensity had smaller residuals (errors) and were more regular. The study period was 30 years (298,058 hours), but as an example of seismic intensity 7, the decision trees of the regression equation alone narrowed down the candidate earthquake occurrence dates to 251 hours, which is less than 0.09% of the study period. Adding the decision tree for Category 1 further reduced it to 148 hours. Furthermore, adding Category 3 resulted in a total of 49 decision trees, and the number of candidate earthquake occurrence dates corresponding to these trees was 7 hours (= number of earthquakes), achieving a 100% accuracy rate. This may be because the content of Category 1 matches the mechanism of earthquakes.

[0266] Category 2: The field of regression equations from primary decision trees (4) Correlation between the Moon and the Sun on the vertical axis (5) Correlation between the direction of the moon and the direction of the sun (6) Correlation between the angle of the Earth's orbit (=position=date) and the orientation of the Moon as seen from Earth (lunar phase) (7) Correlation between the interior angle of the moon and the gravitational pull of the horizontal axis of the sun.

[0267] Regarding Category 3, specifically DT27 to DT85. For earthquake predictions of magnitude 7, category 3 must be included to reach 100% accuracy. Furthermore, the number of decision trees required to calculate the probabilities for magnitude 6 (weak) is 90, and for magnitude 6 (strong), it's 97, suggesting that weaker earthquakes may be more influenced by solar system planets, particularly Jupiter.

[0268] Category 3: Fields related to the gravitational pull of solar system objects (8) The relationship between the vertical and horizontal axes of the Sun, Moon, Jupiter and the entire planetary system (9) Although the causal relationship is unclear, there are boundaries in the statistical figures, and we will explore the possibility of correlation with earthquakes using attractive, coefficient, and angle-related data.

[0269] Regarding the statement that "earthquake prediction is impossible with current science." The content of this specification is classical physics, so it is not as difficult as the above expression suggests. I have a strong impression that the reason the inventor was able to predict this was because (1) he was performing statistical work on seismic intensity rather than magnitude, and (2) he was performing statistical work on gravitational forces.

[0270] Figure 58 compares scalars based on the differences in statistical methods used for seismic intensity and magnitude. While decision trees can be set up for seismic intensity 6+ and 7 (top), this is not possible with magnitude.

[0271] Figure 59 compares the gravitational forces on the vertical axis based on the differences in statistical methods used for seismic intensity and magnitude. While a regression equation can be established for seismic intensity 7 (top), this is not possible for magnitude.

[0272] Figure 60 compares the gravitational pull on the horizontal axis based on the difference in statistical methods between seismic intensity and magnitude. As shown in the figure above, this prediction uses a support vector machine (boundary setting) method, which requires separating the region where the calculated numerical value for the predicted seismic intensity occurs is 100% from the region where it does not, but this cannot be done with magnitude. Therefore, a regression equation that narrows down the candidates to 0.09% cannot be found using magnitude. Furthermore, making predictions using magnitude, which is not a crucial decision tree, results in longer prediction periods and significantly lower probabilities, making it impractical. Therefore, there is no apparent benefit to using magnitude instead of seismic intensity for prediction. Since statistics using seismic intensity (acceleration), as used in Japan, are effective, it is desirable to increase the number of Japanese-style seismometers worldwide, including in oceanic areas, so that predictions can be made over a wider area.

[0273] 8. Conclusion Of the 103 decision trees DT1 to DT85, which are the key points from (1) to (9) below, the "year and date" in which there are many that fall within the earthquake occurrence definition range from magnitude 6 weak to magnitude 7, the more likely it is that an earthquake is likely to occur in the target area with the probability indicated in the result. (The number of decision trees required for each seismic intensity, or up to one or two fewer, remains a possibility.)

[0274] Category 1: Major Decision Trees - Fields related to the gravitational pull of the sun and moon (hourly intervals) (1) When the gravitational scalars of celestial bodies in the solar system that affect Earth, especially the Sun and the Moon, are 3.5 to 15 percent less than their respective maximum values. (2) When the gravitational pull of the sun and moon affecting the Earth is reduced along the vertical axis of the Earth's surface at the epicenter. (3) When, inevitably, the majority of the gravitational forces of the sun and moon that affect the Earth are acting along the horizontal axis.

[0275] Category 2: Areas of regression equations from primary decision trees (hourly) (4) The vertical axis of the Moon and the Sun (5) The direction of the moon and the direction of the sun (6) The angle of the Earth's orbit (=position=date) and the angle of the Moon as seen from Earth (≒lunar age) (7) The Moon, the Sun's interior angle and gravitational pull along the horizontal axis From the main decision tree, we discovered a regression equation showing the correlation between items (4) to (7), and found that earthquakes with greater seismic intensity tend to have smaller residuals and exhibit more regularity.

[0276] Category 3: Fields related to the gravitational pull of solar system objects (daily basis) (8) The relationship between the vertical and horizontal axes of the Sun, Moon, Jupiter and the entire planetary system (9) Although the causal relationship is unclear, there are boundaries in the statistical figures, and gravity and angle-related factors are suspected to be correlated with earthquakes.

[0277] 9. Differences from Non-Patent Document 1, "Correlation between earthquake occurrence in the Japanese archipelago and the alignment of the moon and the sun."

[0278] 9-1 Points to note First, I will explain the differences between Non-Patent Document 1 and this application. Non-Patent Document 1 analyzes data and magnitude from 1926 to 1986, while this application analyzes data and seismic intensity from 1995 to 2024 (because good results cannot be obtained with magnitude). There are many questions regarding the possible reasons why the statistical results claimed by Non-Patent Document 1 and the statistical results of this application differ, so I investigated the causes.

[0279] 9-2 Difference 1 Non-patent document 1 concludes that "the frequency of earthquakes at a given location is not high when only one of the celestial bodies, the Moon or the Sun, is aligned to the east or west. The frequency of earthquakes at a given location is high when both celestial bodies are aligned to the east or west simultaneously. Therefore, an analytical method that only considers the alignment of the Moon is insufficient."

[0280] However, while I agree with considering the sun and other celestial bodies, their data does not align with the statistical data presented in this application.

[0281] Figure 61 is a table showing statistics on the number of earthquakes by the orientation of the sun and moon at the time of occurrence, using data from the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan and the Japan Meteorological Agency. Figure 61(a) shows earthquakes with a seismic intensity of 5 or higher, and Figure 61(b) shows earthquakes with a magnitude of 5 or higher. For both seismic intensity and magnitude, the number of earthquakes was highest when "only one of the sun and moon was aligned to the east or west," followed by "both were aligned," and the number of earthquakes when "both were aligned to the north or south" was extremely low.

[0282] After investigating the cause of the discrepancy, (1) Non-patent document 1 divides the region into ±30° increments, making it impossible to divide the cardinal directions equally. (2) Non-patent document 1 states that "bar graphs are a misleading method of display," and it is highly likely that the counts were not accurate.

[0283] Figure 62 shows the division method in this application and the division method in Non-Patent Document 1, where (a) shows the division method in this application and (b) shows the division method in Non-Patent Document 1.

[0284] A. How to divide the present application (see Figure 62(a)) (1) Let the area of ​​the larger square be 1. (2) Divide the cardinal directions (east, west, north, south) by ±45° in each of the four divisions, resulting in a total of 16 divisions in terms of area. (3) Part a is "both east or west" Area 4 / 16 (4) Part b is "both south or north" Area 4 / 16 (5) Part c has an area of ​​8 / 16 if "one side is east or west = the other side is south or north". (6) The argument is about the difference in results, specifically whether "both are east or west = a" is more common, or whether "one is east or west = c" is more common. Therefore, the question is "which is more common, a or c?" (7) At first glance, the graph might give the impression that there is a lot of a, but since c has twice the area, if you count them accurately, there is actually a little more c.

[0285] B. Classification of Non-Patent Document 1 (see Figure 62(b)) (1) Divided into 144 sections by area. (Not equal) (2) Part a is "both east or west" Area 16 / 144 (3) Part b is "both south or north" area 16 / 144 (4) Part c has an area of ​​64 / 144, where "one side is east or west = the other side is south or north". (5) Part d has an area of ​​48 / 144 (6) The argument is about the difference in results, specifically whether "both are east or west = a" is more common, or whether "one is east or west = c" is more common. Therefore, the question is "which is more common, a or c?" (7) Even if there is a preconceived notion, it seems that there are many c's, but in any case we should count them accurately, and the division is not fair.

[0286] Figure 63 is a diagram illustrating the bar graph in the non-patent literature. If we divide the region into 30° increments as in the non-patent literature, and separate the moon and sun individually, the graph in Figure 63 should ideally consist of a bar graph with parts a, c, and c mixed together. However, the actual graph is colorless, leading to the misconception that all "angles with a large number of points" are points where two types of lines intersect. Furthermore, a part d that does not belong to either group appears, making it difficult to understand.

[0287] The regions should be divided into east, west, north, and south (each ±45°), or if northeast, southeast, southwest, and northwest are also included, they should all be divided under the same conditions (each ±22.5°). Unless they are divided equally, it cannot be a "comparison," and it is like trying to find the probability of rolling a die twice, both times getting a 1 or a 6, and once getting a 1 or a 6, by artificially altering the shape of the die so that it is difficult to roll a 2 through a 5.

[0288] Matrix-like divisions (combinations) are important in the evaluation process because they can lead to the discovery of results that humans did not anticipate. By dividing the data equally, the possibility of discovering unexpected results, such as "part d was actually the largest" (a hypothetical example), is eliminated before statistics are even calculated due to human preconceptions. Statistics is a method for discovering the truth, and humans should not manipulate the results.

[0289] The same problem arises when evaluating earthquake predictions. People unfamiliar with statistics tend to focus only on two possibilities: whether or not an earthquake occurred during the predicted period. However, in terms of a matrix, there are a total of four possibilities: "predicted, not predicted" and "occurred, not occurred." Therefore, it is also necessary to consider whether or not an earthquake occurred during periods when there was no prediction.

[0290] Non-Patent Document 1 is suspected to have been biased by looking at a concentrated cluster of points in a black and white variance graph and not verifying the numbers using matrix combinations. In any case, we conclude that the above is the reason for the difference in statistical results with Non-Patent Document 1, and that the statistical results of this application are correct.

[0291] 9-3 Difference 2 Non-patent document 1 concludes that "the magnitude of an earthquake is unrelated to the configuration of celestial bodies. The correlation between the frequency of earthquakes and the configuration of celestial bodies is almost the same regardless of whether the magnitude is large or small. Therefore, it is incorrect to associate only large earthquakes with the configuration of celestial bodies."

[0292] Based on the analysis results of this application, if we change "magnitude" to "seismic intensity," the expression becomes "the magnitude of an earthquake is closely related to the alignment of celestial bodies."

[0293] While the patterns described in the two paragraphs above (somewhat vague) do indeed have a similar feel regardless of earthquake magnitude, the situation changes when it comes to correlation (regression equation: more precise than the trend). Regression analysis is a common statistical method for finding correlations, and through regression analysis, we were able to discover a regression equation for the correlation between the lunar and solar configurations for earthquakes of magnitude 6-weak to magnitude 7. The equation is very neat, with residuals (errors) becoming zero for stronger earthquakes, and increasing as the seismic intensity decreases, to the point where it became impossible to even create a regression equation for earthquakes of magnitude 5-strong or lower. In other words, the correlation is stronger the greater the seismic intensity.

[0294] 9-4 Difference 3 Non-patent document 1 concludes that "Attempts were made to improve correlation by narrowing the earthquake occurrence area, but no significant increase was observed. This is thought to be because narrowing the area reduces the number of earthquakes that can be processed, increasing the statistical variability of the histogram and masking the correlation." In this study, statistical analysis using magnitude makes it difficult to find correlations, but statistical analysis using seismic intensity reveals a correlation so strong that regression analysis can be used to discover a regression equation for the correlation between the lunar and solar configurations, even for seismic intensities of 6-weak to 7, which have a low frequency of occurrence. Because of this significant difference in the ease with which correlations can be found, we are beginning to think that there might be a problem with the method used to calculate magnitude.

[0295] For example, imagine using a spiral corkscrew to remove a wine cork by hand. The harder the cork is to remove, the more energy is required to pull it out.

[0296] Magnitude is an indicator (integral) of the amount of energy required to cause an earthquake, and seismic intensity is the acceleration and velocity (derivative) of the movement of the earth's crust. However, the energy required to pull out the cork is calculated using three inaccurate factors: (1) the collapse area (the contact area between the cork and the bottle), (2) the amount of slip (the length of the cork that needs to be pulled out), and (3) the rigidity modulus of the region (the friction coefficient of the cork). I have some doubts about how accurate (1), (2), and (3) are.

[0297] In contrast, seismic intensity is based on mechanically measured acceleration and velocity, which have less inaccuracy. If it is difficult to pull out, the acceleration and velocity after pulling out will be large, and the "difficulty of pulling out" will be proportional to the magnitude of the earthquake, making it reliable.

[0298] A book by Professor Satoshi Ide of the University of Tokyo states that "magnitude is inaccurate," and there is also a similar statement on the Japan Meteorological Agency's website, so this possibility should be considered. Reference: Japan Meteorological Agency website https: / / www.data.jma.go.jp / eqev / data / joho / info_magnitude.html

[0299] 9-5 Difference 4 The conclusion of Non-Patent Document 1 states: "A: This study found that earthquakes occur more frequently when the Moon and the Sun are both positioned to the east or west at that location. B: This can be easily explained by the fact that at times of such celestial alignment, the tidal effect of the celestial bodies on the Earth's bedrock is at its maximum, causing the stressed bedrock to collapse and resulting in earthquakes." This seems to be the conclusion of Non-Patent Document 1, however, Regarding part A. I disagree. The reasons are as stated in item 2, difference 1. Regarding part B. The explanation about tidal forces is incorrect. Tidal forces are only present when there is a distance difference between the Earth's surface and the Earth's center. As long as it is the Earth's surface, it is a force that acts only in the vertical direction. The strongest tidal force occurs at high tide, and high tide coincides with the time when the moon is at its highest point in the sky, so it is roughly in the south (with a time difference). In contrast, "when a celestial body is in the east or west" is when the gravitational force along the horizontal axis is strong, which is close to low tide, so it is a contradiction.

[0300] As shown in Figure 5 above, our research results indicate that earthquakes occur when the vertical axis values ​​are low, regardless of whether it is due to gravity or tidal force. As shown in Figure 5, this result is the exact opposite of Non-Patent Document 1. This is evidence that Non-Patent Document 1's claim that "earthquakes occur when tidal force is at its maximum" is incorrect.

[0301] 9-6 Conclusion Overall, the only commonality between the literature and this application is, in a broad sense, that "earthquakes are related to celestial bodies, especially the moon and the sun." However, the details differ almost entirely from the results of this application, as the main points (differences 2-5) of Non-Patent Literature 1 are not an extension of what Non-Patent Literature 1 claims, and therefore this invention cannot be considered prior art. The forces that this application focuses on are particularly "changes in the gravitational force itself, and changes in the vertical and horizontal axes," and the claim in Non-Patent Literature 1 that "tidal forces are at their maximum" is incorrect.

[0302] In conclusion, the content of Non-Patent Document 1 does not fall under the category of "what is normally assumed in this invention," and even if we concede that "the sun and moon are involved" and "tidal force is a mistake for gravity," given the results such as the 100% accuracy rate for earthquake predictions at seismic intensity 7 using the decision tree unique to this application, it can be said that this invention has progress over Non-Patent Document 1.

[0303] The present invention is the following earthquake prediction method. (I) Narrow down the area to be predicted, and use specific coordinates in the field of view within the area to be predicted, For each predicted seismic intensity, the range including the error in the regression equation compared to past earthquake occurrences is defined as the range where an earthquake is likely to occur. If calculation results obtained in a similar manner in the future indicate that an earthquake is likely to occur in the year and date specified above, in the predicted area, at the predicted seismic intensity, and with the probability indicated in the results, then... Earthquake prediction methods.

[0304] (II) The coordinates are, A mathematical coordinate system in which the Earth's orbit is considered as an angle, with the Sun as the origin, perihelion at 180°, and aphelion at 0°, or When the Earth is considered the origin and the Sun is fixed at a constant 90° angle, the solar system is viewed as a plane, and mathematical coordinates are used that utilize the angle at which each solar system celestial body is viewed from Earth. (I) Earthquake prediction method.

[0305] Supplementary information on (II) This is an explanation of a special type of coordinate system. In particular, when using decision trees related to solar system planets, if the altitude and azimuth of astronomical coordinates published by observatories are used as is, the accuracy of predicting earthquakes of magnitude 7 drops from 100% to 78%. From this result, it appears that coordinates based on perihelion and aphelion are related to earthquakes, not just for the convenience of using trigonometric functions, and this may be evidence that gravity, rather than tidal forces, is involved because the solar system planets are almost on a horizontal axis.

[0306] (III) The above definitions are, Past earthquakes caused by celestial bodies in the solar system affected Earth. (1) When the gravitational scalars of celestial bodies in the solar system that affect Earth, especially the Sun and the Moon, are 3.5 to 15 percent less than their respective maximum values, (2) When the gravitational forces of the sun and moon affecting the Earth are reduced along the vertical axis of the Earth's surface at the epicenter, (3) Inevitably, when much of the gravitational force of the sun and moon that affects the Earth acts along the horizontal axis, (4) Correlation between the Moon and the Sun on the vertical axis, (5) Correlation between the direction of the moon and the direction of the sun, (6) The correlation between the angle of the Earth's orbit and the Moon's view from Earth. (7) The correlation between the interior angle of the moon and the gravitational force on the horizontal axis of the sun. (8) The gravitational forces of the Sun, Moon, Jupiter and the entire planet along the vertical and horizontal axes, (9) The earthquake prediction method of (I) obtained from a decision tree based on gravitational, coefficient, and angle-related data to explore the possibility of correlation with earthquakes.

[0307] Supplementary information on (III) This section explains the calculation method for each decision tree (how it is defined, not specific numerical values). The decision trees in Category 1 can not only serve as a definition but also potentially explain the mechanism of earthquakes.

[0308] (IV) As dedicated data for countries at or near the same latitude as Japan, the range obtained by adding ± an arbitrary extra value to the maximum residual value of the regression equation, This defines the range within which an earthquake may occur. (I) Earthquake prediction method.

[0309] (IV) Supplementary information This regression equation (which provides specific numerical values) is specific to Japan and is likely only applicable to countries at the same latitude. China and the United States are among the countries included in this equation.

[0310] (V) The earthquake prediction method of (I), wherein the more numbers that fall within the range of the above definition, the higher the probability of occurrence.

[0311] Supplementary information about (V) The study period was 30 years (298,058 hours), but as an example of a magnitude 7 earthquake, the decision trees using only the Category 2 regression equations narrowed down the candidate dates for earthquake occurrence to 251 hours, which is less than 0.09% of the study period. Adding the Category 1 decision trees further reduced it to 148 hours. Furthermore, adding some of the Category 3 decision trees resulted in a total of 49 decision trees, with only 7 hours (= number of earthquakes) corresponding to candidate dates for earthquake occurrence, achieving a 100% success rate. In other words, starting with Categories 1 and 2, "the more corresponding dates there are, the higher the probability of occurrence." For an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6+, 97 decision trees are required, and for an earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6-, 90 decision trees are required. (The number of decision trees required to arrive at the announced probability is 97.)

[0312] (VI) If a new earthquake occurs and falls outside the existing definition range, the range in which an earthquake is likely to occur will be redefined and corrected for each predicted seismic intensity, including the newly occurring earthquake and the range including the error in the regression equation compared to past earthquake occurrences. (I) Earthquake prediction method.

[0313] Supplementary information on (VI) The number of earthquakes (samples) since the availability of scientific data on earthquakes is small, and currently there is no guarantee that all earthquakes in the future will fall within the current definition. We believe that by updating the definition of the decision tree we discovered, more accurate earthquake predictions will be possible in the future. The achievement of this research is the discovery of a decision tree and algorithm that enables earthquake prediction, but it will take at least another 250 years until the number of samples for seismic intensity 7 reaches 50 before we can obtain more accurate results.

[0314] Furthermore, this invention also provides the following earthquake prediction method. (A) An astronomical information collection step of collecting astronomical information for a predetermined period in the past and a predetermined period in the future, A parameter acquisition step involves obtaining parameters based on the collected astronomical information, An earthquake occurrence range identification step that identifies the earthquake occurrence range, which is the range of the parameters, during the earthquake occurrence period in which an earthquake actually occurred during the predetermined past period; An earthquake prediction step in which, within the predetermined future period, the period in which the parameter is within the earthquake occurrence range is extracted, and the period is predicted to be a period in which an earthquake may occur, Earthquake prediction methods including...

[0315] (B) In the astronomical information collection step, collect astronomical information for a predetermined period in the past and a predetermined period in the future in a specific earthquake prediction area on Earth. In the earthquake prediction step, it is possible to identify the earthquake-prone area, predicting that it is a period in which an earthquake may occur in the earthquake prediction target area. (A) Earthquake prediction method.

[0316] (C) In the step of identifying the earthquake occurrence range, the period during which earthquakes of a specific seismic intensity or magnitude or greater occur is defined as the earthquake occurrence period, thereby limiting the investigation to the seismic intensity or magnitude of the target. (A) Earthquake prediction method.

[0317] (D) The parameters are values ​​determined based on the gravitational force, tidal force, or distance, angle, and mass of other celestial bodies relative to Earth. (A) Earthquake prediction method.

[0318] The aforementioned other celestial body is the Moon or the Sun, or a planet in the solar system. The earthquake prediction method described in (D).

[0319] (E) The above parameters are, The xy coordinate system is an Earth-centered coordinate system where the Earth's center is the origin, and the position of the Sun relative to the Earth is fixed at 90° and in the y+ direction, or On a plane containing the Earth's orbit, the center of the sun is the origin, the position of the Earth at aphelion is 0° relative to the origin, the position of the Earth at perihelion is 180° relative to the origin, the line passing through the position of the Earth at aphelion, the origin, and the position of the Earth at perihelion is the X-axis, and the line passing through the origin and perpendicular to the X-axis is the Y-axis. This is the value on the XY coordinate system, which is a solar-centered coordinate system, or, When calculating tidal forces, the astronomical direction and altitude are converted into mathematical coordinates where the horizontal plane of the prediction area for a given time unit is the X-axis, east is X+ and west is X- in the XZ plane, and the vertical plane (altitude) is the Y-axis. (A) Earthquake prediction method. [Explanation of symbols]

[0320] S1 Steps for gathering astronomical information S2 Decision Tree Acquisition Step S3 Earthquake Area Identification Step S4 Earthquake Prediction Steps

Claims

1. Narrow down the area to be predicted, Using specific coordinates within the field of view of the aforementioned prediction target area, multiple astronomical information items showing the relationship between the Earth and other astronomical phenomena are collected during a predetermined past period (past data collection period) and a future prediction period (future period for earthquake prediction). Within the space showing the correlation between two of the multiple astronomical pieces of information, we determine the earthquake occurrence area where earthquakes of a certain seismic intensity or higher occurred during the past data collection period. During the aforementioned future prediction period, the period in which the astronomical information falls within the range of the earthquake occurrence, including errors, is considered to be a period in which there is a possibility of an earthquake of a certain seismic intensity or higher occurring in the predicted area. Earthquake prediction methods.

2. The plurality of astronomical information, This includes the vertical axis component of the Moon's gravitational force, the vertical axis component of the Sun's gravitational force, the Moon's azimuth, the Sun's azimuth, the angle on Earth's orbit, the Moon's azimuth as seen from Earth, the interior angle between the Moon and the Sun, and the gravitational forces of the Sun and Moon in the horizontal axis direction. The earthquake area is, (a) Within the space in which the correlation between two of the plurality of astronomical information, namely the vertical axis component of the lunar gravitational force and the vertical axis component of the solar gravitational force, there is a range in which earthquakes of a certain seismic intensity or higher have occurred during the past data collection period. (b) When an earthquake of a certain magnitude or greater occurs within the space in which the correlation between two of the plurality of astronomical information, namely the direction of the moon and the direction of the sun, occurs within the past data collection period, (c) Within the space showing the correlation between two of the multiple astronomical pieces of information, namely the angle of the Earth's revolution and the azimuth of the Moon as seen from the Earth, the range in which earthquakes of a certain seismic intensity or higher have occurred during the past data collection period, and (d) Within the space where the correlation between two of the multiple astronomical pieces of information, namely the interior angle between the Moon and the Sun and the sum of the absolute values ​​of the gravitational forces between the Sun and the Moon in the horizontal axis direction, is shown, the range in which earthquakes of a certain seismic intensity or higher have occurred during the past data collection period. Including at least one range of, The earthquake prediction method according to claim 1.

3. The plurality of astronomical information includes a scalar of the sun's gravitational force, a scalar of the moon's gravitational force, a vertical axis component of the sun's gravitational force and a vertical axis component of the moon's gravitational force, a horizontal axis component of the sun's gravitational force and a horizontal axis component of the moon's gravitational force, The earthquake area is, (e) The range in which the gravitational scalars of the sun and the moon are 3.5 to 15 percent less than their respective maximum values, (f) At the epicenter surface, in the range where the vertical axis component of the sun's gravitational pull and the vertical axis component of the moon's gravitational pull are smaller than the horizontal axis component, Including at least one range of, The earthquake prediction method according to claim 2.

4. The plurality of astronomical information includes the vertical and horizontal components of the gravitational force exerted on Earth by a solar system celestial body, such as the Sun, Moon, or a solar system planet, and the angle of the solar system celestial body on the specific coordinates, Of the aforementioned earthquake occurrence area, (g) When the vertical and horizontal components of the gravitational force exerted on Earth by a solar system celestial body, such as the Sun, Moon, or a solar system planet, and the angles of the solar system celestial body on the specified coordinates, or a value calculated by combining them, fall within the range in which earthquakes of a certain seismic intensity or higher have occurred during the past data collection period, To limit the earthquake occurrence area, The earthquake prediction method according to claim 3.

5. The more of the above (a) to (g) that are included in the earthquake occurrence range, the higher the probability of occurrence. The earthquake prediction method according to claim 4.

6. The aforementioned coordinates are, A mathematical coordinate system in which the Earth's orbit is considered as an angle, with the Sun as the origin, perihelion at 180°, and aphelion at 0°, or When the Earth is considered the origin and the Sun is fixed at a constant 90° angle, the solar system is viewed as a plane, and mathematical coordinates are used, including the angle at which each solar system celestial body is viewed from Earth. An earthquake prediction method according to any one of claims 1 to 5.

7. The range of earthquake occurrence in the predicted area, including the error, is defined as the earthquake occurrence in an area at or near the same latitude as the predicted area. The period in the future that corresponds to the aforementioned earthquake occurrence area is predicted to be the period during which earthquakes are likely to occur in the region near the aforementioned latitude. The earthquake prediction method according to claim 6.

8. If a new earthquake occurs outside the period during which earthquakes are likely to occur, the period during which the new earthquake occurred will be designated as the historical data collection period, and again, Within the space showing the correlation between two of the multiple astronomical pieces of information, we determine the earthquake occurrence area where earthquakes of a certain seismic intensity or higher occurred during the past data collection period. During the aforementioned future prediction period, the period in which the astronomical information falls within the range of the earthquake occurrence, including errors, is considered to be the period in which there is a possibility of an earthquake of a specific seismic intensity or higher occurring in the predicted area. The earthquake prediction method according to claim 7.

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