Power adjustment plan creation device and power adjustment plan creation method

Abstract

To provide an electric power adjustment plan creation device etc. capable of creating an electric power adjustment plan having high economical efficiency.SOLUTION: An electric power adjustment plan creation device 100 creates an electric power adjustment plan when a business operator for performing electric power retail supplies electric power to a consumer. The electric power adjustment plan creation device includes an adjusted electric power amount prediction unit 120 for acquiring an electric power transaction market and an adjusted electric power amount showing an electric power amount requiring adjustment, a previous day market adjustment profit and loss prediction unit for acquiring previous day market adjustment estimation profits and losses showing profits and losses in transacting an adjustment electric power amount at a previous day market on a demand hour-by-hour basis, a current day market adjustment profit and loss prediction unit for acquiring current day market adjustment estimation profits and losses showing profits and losses in transacting an adjustment electric power amount on a demand hour-by-hour basis, an adjustment plan creation unit 170 for comparing the previous day market adjustment estimation profits and losses with the current day market adjustment estimation profits and losses with the respective demand hour-by-hour bases to create an adjustment plan on the basis of a comparison result, and an output unit 180 for outputting the adjustment plan.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to an electric power adjustment plan creation device and an electric power adjustment plan creation method.

Background Art

[0002] With the full liberalization of retail electricity, private companies (so-called retail electricity providers) entering the retail electricity business have been emerging one after another. Such retail electricity providers may be charged a fee called an imbalance fee when an imbalance, which is the difference between the sales plan and the actual value, occurs. Therefore, Patent Document 1 discloses a device for predicting an imbalance price before the execution of a supply-demand plan.

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0003]

Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0004] By the way, a retail electricity provider creates an electric power adjustment plan for a target day, for example, on the day before the target day of supplying power to a customer. From the perspective of improving the profit of the retail electricity provider, it may be desirable to create an electric power adjustment plan with high economic efficiency for the retail electricity provider.

[0005] Therefore, the present invention provides an electric power adjustment plan creation device and an electric power adjustment plan creation method capable of creating an electric power adjustment plan with high economic efficiency.

Means for Solving the Problems

[0006] A power adjustment plan creation device according to one aspect of the present invention is a power adjustment plan creation device that creates a power adjustment plan when a power retailer supplies power to a consumer, and comprises: an adjustment power amount acquisition unit that acquires an adjustment power amount indicating the amount of power that needs to be adjusted with the power trading market including the previous day market and the current day market; a previous day market adjustment profit and loss acquisition unit that acquires a previous day market adjustment estimated profit and loss indicating the profit and loss when the adjustment power amount is traded in the previous day market in a demand time unit; a current day market adjustment profit and loss acquisition unit that acquires a current day market adjustment estimated profit and loss indicating the profit and loss when the adjustment power amount is traded in the current day market in a demand time unit; an adjustment plan creation unit that compares the previous day market adjustment estimated profit and loss and the current day market adjustment estimated profit and loss in each of the demand time units and creates the adjustment plan based on the comparison result; and an output unit that outputs the adjustment plan.

[0007] A method for creating a power adjustment plan according to one aspect of the present invention is a method for creating a power adjustment plan when a power retailer supplies power to a consumer, and includes: a first acquisition step of acquiring an adjustment amount indicating the amount of power that needs to be adjusted with the power trading market, including the day-ahead market and the day-of market; a second acquisition step of acquiring an estimated profit and loss for adjustments in the day-ahead market, indicating the profit and loss when the adjustment amount is traded in the day-ahead market, in units of demand time; a third acquisition step of acquiring an estimated profit and loss for adjustments in the day-of market, indicating the profit and loss when the adjustment amount is traded in the day-of market, in units of demand time; a creation step of comparing the estimated profit and loss for adjustments in the day-ahead market and the estimated profit and loss for adjustments in the day-of market in each of the demand time units, and creating the adjustment plan based on the comparison result; and an output step of outputting the adjustment plan. [Effects of the Invention]

[0008] According to one aspect of the present invention, it is possible to realize a power adjustment plan creation device and the like that can create a highly economical power adjustment plan. [Brief explanation of the drawing]

[0009] [Figure 1] Figure 1 is a functional block diagram showing the configuration of the power adjustment plan presentation system according to Embodiment 1. [Figure 2] Figure 2 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power adjustment plan creation device according to Embodiment 1. [Figure 3] Figure 3 shows an example of the display of the presentation unit according to Embodiment 1. [Figure 4] Figure 4 is a functional block diagram showing the configuration of the power adjustment plan presentation system according to Embodiment 2. [Figure 5] Figure 5 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power adjustment plan creation device according to Embodiment 2. [Figure 6] Figure 6 is a functional block diagram showing the configuration of the power adjustment plan presentation system according to Embodiment 3. [Figure 7] Figure 7 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power adjustment plan creation device according to Embodiment 3. [Figure 8] Figure 8 is a functional block diagram showing the configuration of the power adjustment plan presentation system according to Embodiment 4. [Figure 9] Figure 9 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power adjustment plan creation device according to Embodiment 4. [Modes for carrying out the invention]

[0010] (Background leading to the present invention) In 2016, the full liberalization of electricity retail began in Japan, allowing all consumers, including households and shops, to freely choose their electricity supplier and pricing plan. As a result, while electricity was previously supplied mainly by local power companies (formerly general electricity utilities), the liberalization has led to a surge in new businesses entering the retail electricity market, known as "retail electricity suppliers" (formerly specified-scale electricity utilities). A retail electricity supplier is one example of a business that supplies electricity to the retail market. It should be noted that businesses that sell electricity are not limited to retail electricity suppliers.

[0011] With the full liberalization of electricity retail, the simultaneous supply and demand matching system was introduced in 2016. This system obligates retail electricity providers to always match their planned sales figures with their actual sales figures (for example, every 30 minutes). If an imbalance occurs—the difference between a retail electricity provider's sales plan, which includes planned electricity demand, and their actual sales figures, which include actual electricity demand—the retail electricity provider may be charged an imbalance fee. Therefore, minimizing the difference between the sales plan and actual sales is crucial for the profitability of retail electricity providers. By reducing the amount of imbalance, retail electricity providers can reduce the costs of electricity procurement and adjustment, leading to improved profitability. Furthermore, reducing the amount of imbalance also contributes to maintaining the supply-demand balance in the power grid.

[0012] Note that 30 minutes is just one example of a specified period. The specified period is the period of a demand time unit, and is, for example, 30 minutes, but is not limited to this. Also, the method of creating the sales plan is not particularly limited, and any existing method may be used. Sales are also called supply, and the sales plan is also called a demand plan or sales volume plan.

[0013] This section will explain the general workflow of a retail electricity provider. First, we will explain the workflow for the day before selling electricity to customers.

[0014] Retail electricity providers obtain information on the next day's Feed-in Tariff (FIT) generation plan values ​​from general transmission and distribution companies (the transmission and distribution divisions of former general electricity companies) as needed. The generation plan values ​​may be, for example, planned values ​​in 30-minute increments. Retail electricity providers also formulate the next day's sales plan based on the predicted demand (electricity demand) of their contracted customers as needed. The sales plan may include, for example, demand values ​​for 48 30-minute intervals for the next day (the current day).

[0015] Retail electricity providers determine whether there is a shortage of electricity for the next day based on the sales plan and, for example, the amount of electricity directly procured from power generation companies. If there is a shortage, they procure the shortage amount through bidding in the wholesale electricity trading market (so-called spot market) at the Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX, a general incorporated association). A power generation company is a company that maintains and operates its own power generation facilities (electrical works for power generation) and generates electricity for use in retail electricity business, etc. In addition, when a retail electricity provider owns power generation facilities, that is, for example, when it engages in both power generation business and retail electricity business, the retail electricity provider may determine whether there is a shortage of electricity for the next day based on the sales plan and the amount of electricity generated (predicted amount of electricity generation) by the power generation facilities. Also, the spot market is an example of a day-ahead market, and the hour-ahead market is an example of an on-day market.

[0016] Then, the retail electricity provider formulates the final sales plan for the next day, including the procurement amount from the wholesale electricity trading market, and submits the formulated sales plan to the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators (OCCTO). The final sales plan for the next day is also referred to as the initial sales plan. The Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators is an organization that formulates long-term policies and wide-area grid development plans and reviews grid access operations, etc.

[0017] There are two types of electricity trading prices: the trading price between power generation companies and retail electricity providers, and the trading price when procuring from the spot market. The trading price between power generation companies and retail electricity providers is determined in the relative contract between the power generation company and the retail electricity provider.

[0018] Also, when procuring from the spot market, the transaction price is, for example, the agreed price in the spot market, which is determined after 10:00 am on the previous day. For example, the agreed price, that is, the market price in the wholesale power trading market, includes the system price (the price at the intersection of the national-wide sell bid curve and buy bid curve) and the area price for each area (the price when calculating the agreed price for each area due to the constraint of the tie-line capacity). The transaction price can be either of these prices. It can also be said that the transaction price is the price of electricity based on the transaction between one or more retail electricity suppliers and one or more power generation companies through the wholesale power trading market. Although the case of power shortage has been described, when there is a surplus of electricity for the next day, the retail electricity supplier may bid and trade as a seller in the spot market based on the sales plan and, for example, the amount of electricity directly procured from the power generation company.

[0019] Note that at least one of the transaction price between the power generation company and the retail electricity supplier and the transaction price when procuring from the spot market is an example of the transaction price of electricity based on the planned electricity sales volume.

[0020] Note that in the above, an example of procuring electricity from the spot market in JEPX has been described, but it is not limited to the spot market in JEPX, and any wholesale power trading market may be used.

[0021] Next, the business flow on the day of supplying electricity to the customer will be described.

[0022] Retail electricity providers monitor whether they are selling electricity according to the sales plan formulated the previous day (so-called monitoring of simultaneous supply and demand). If there is a shortage of electricity on the day, retail electricity providers procure the shortage by bidding on the wholesale electricity trading market at JEPX (so-called pre-sale market) and revise their sales plan as necessary and submit it to the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators. Revisions are made, for example, when there is a significant discrepancy between the sales plan formulated the previous day and the actual sales on the day. If there is a surplus, they may bid and trade as sellers in the pre-sale market, similar to the spot market. The pre-sale market is an example of the same-day market, and the trading price of electricity in the pre-sale market is an example of the market price in the wholesale electricity trading market.

[0023] As explained above, retail electricity providers are required to create their initial sales plan the day before. Based on this sales plan and, for example, the amount of electricity they procure directly from power generators, they create their initial sales plan to procure the necessary amount of electricity from the spot market or the next day's advance market if there is a shortage of electricity for the following day. If the spot market transaction price and the advance market transaction price differ significantly, a deviation from the optimal initial sales plan will occur, which may reduce the profitability of the retail electricity provider. Similarly, if market prices rise above the imbalance price, a deviation from the optimal initial sales plan will occur, which may also reduce the profitability of the retail electricity provider. Therefore, from the perspective of improving the profitability of retail electricity providers, it is desirable that when creating the initial sales plan, they consider the spot market transaction price and the advance market transaction price, and create an economically efficient electricity procurement plan to procure the necessary amount of electricity for the following day. Although the above has described the case of a power shortage, if there is a surplus of electricity compared to the planned value, the surplus will also be transferred to suppress the occurrence of an imbalance. Retail electricity providers create a prior plan that includes selling the surplus to the wholesale electricity trading market.

[0024] Therefore, the inventors of this application have diligently studied a power adjustment plan creation device and a power adjustment plan creation method capable of creating highly economical power adjustment plans, and have devised the power adjustment plan creation device and power adjustment plan creation method described below. In the following, a power adjustment plan will be simply referred to as an adjustment plan.

[0025] The embodiments will be described in detail below with reference to the drawings.

[0026] The embodiments described below are all comprehensive or specific examples. The numerical values, components, arrangement and connection configurations of components, steps, and the order of steps shown in the following embodiments are examples only and are not intended to limit the present invention. Furthermore, among the components in the following embodiments, those not described in an independent claim are described as optional components.

[0027] Furthermore, each figure is a schematic diagram and not necessarily a strictly accurate representation. Therefore, for example, the scale may not necessarily match in each figure. Also, in each figure, substantially identical components are given the same reference numerals, and redundant explanations are omitted or simplified.

[0028] Furthermore, in this specification, terms indicating relationships between elements such as "same" or "identical," as well as numerical values ​​and numerical ranges, do not represent only strict meanings, but also include substantially equivalent ranges, such as differences of a few percent (e.g., about 10%).

[0029] (Embodiment 1) The power adjustment plan creation device according to this embodiment will be described below with reference to Figures 1 to 3.

[0030] [1-1. Configuration of the Power Adjustment Loss Plan Presentation System] First, the configuration of the power adjustment plan presentation system equipped with the power adjustment plan creation device according to this embodiment will be described with reference to Figure 1. Figure 1 is a functional block diagram showing the configuration of the power adjustment plan presentation system 1 according to this embodiment.

[0031] As shown in Figure 1, the power adjustment plan presentation system 1 comprises a power adjustment plan creation device 100 and a presentation unit 300. Communication between the power adjustment plan creation device 100 and the presentation unit 300 may be wireless or wired.

[0032] The power adjustment plan creation device 100 creates an adjustment plan for when a retail electricity provider supplies electricity to consumers. Based on the sales plan and the amount of electricity to be procured from the power generation company, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 creates an adjustment plan to procure the insufficient electricity if there is a power shortage for the following day. A retail electricity provider is a business that supplies electricity to consumers. If the retail electricity provider owns power generation facilities (for example, a power plant), the power adjustment plan creation device 100 may create an adjustment plan based on the sales plan and the amount of electricity generated by said power generation facilities (predicted amount of electricity generated). The retail electricity provider and the power generation company may be the same business.

[0033] A customer is a consumer who enters into a contract with a retail electricity provider and purchases electricity from them. A customer's facility may be, for example, a residence, but is not limited to this; it may also be a factory, apartment building, office building, hospital, school, or any other building where a load is located. In the following, the day on which electricity is supplied to the customer (for example, the next day) may be referred to as "the current day," and the day before that day may be referred to as "the previous day."

[0034] The power adjustment plan creation device 100 includes a sales electricity acquisition unit 110a, a weather information acquisition unit 110b, a market transaction price acquisition unit 110c, an adjustment electricity forecast unit 120, a spot market unit price forecast unit 130, a time-ahead market unit price forecast unit 140, a spot market adjustment profit and loss estimation unit 150, a time-ahead market adjustment profit and loss estimation unit 160, an adjustment plan creation unit 170, an output unit 180, and a storage unit (not shown) for storing various tables. The power adjustment plan creation device 100 is implemented by a computer including a processor, memory, etc., or by a smartphone. Specifically, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 functions as a sales electricity acquisition unit 110a, a weather information acquisition unit 110b, a market transaction price acquisition unit 110c, an adjustment electricity forecast unit 120, a spot market unit price forecast unit 130, a time-ahead market unit price forecast unit 140, a spot market adjustment profit and loss estimation unit 150, a time-ahead market adjustment profit and loss estimation unit 160, an adjustment plan creation unit 170, and an output unit 180, with the processor operating according to a program stored in memory. The power adjustment plan creation device 100 may be implemented, for example, by a server device owned by a retail electricity provider.

[0035] The electricity sales volume acquisition unit 110a acquires electricity sales volume (actual electricity sales volume value) that shows the actual amount of electricity sold to one or more customers during the past first period. The electricity sales volume acquisition unit 110a may, for example, acquire electricity sales volume directly from a meter installed by a general transmission and distribution company or a customer, or it may acquire electricity sales volume from a server device that manages electricity sales volume, or if electricity sales volume is stored in the storage unit of the unit itself, it may acquire electricity sales volume by reading it from the storage unit. Note that electricity sales volume is the actual value of the total amount of electricity sold (supplied) by the retail electricity business operator to customers with whom it has a contract during the first period. In addition, electricity sales volume is acquired, for example, for each demand time unit.

[0036] The weather information acquisition unit 110b acquires weather information for the first period and the second period, which will be subject to future power supply. The weather information may include weather data every three hours for the first period and weather forecasts every three hours for the second period. In other words, the weather information may be every three hours. However, the weather information is not limited to every three hours.

[0037] The weather information acquisition unit 110b may acquire weather information from, for example, a weather information distribution company. The weather information acquisition unit 110b may also acquire weather information for the first and second periods from, for example, a server device that manages weather information (for example, a server device managed by the Japan Meteorological Agency or a private company that provides weather information). Furthermore, the first period is not particularly limited and may be, for example, a period of several days, weeks, months, or several years prior to the second period.

[0038] Weather information includes, but is not limited to, temperature, humidity, weather (sunny, cloudy, rainy, snowy, etc.), and solar radiation. Furthermore, the weather information for the second period here includes information obtained (forecasted) before bidding on the spot market. In other words, the weather information here is information obtained on the previous day, before submitting the sales plan to the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators. The weather information for the second period here is the weather information used when formulating the sales plan to be submitted to the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators.

[0039] Furthermore, the weather information acquisition unit 110b may acquire event information in place of, or in addition to, weather information. The event information includes the content of the event held on the day (festival, concert, etc.) and the time period in which the event will be held. The event information may also include calendar information such as public holidays. For example, if the customer is a factory or office building, the calendar information will include information indicating working days, business days, and holidays. Here, the weather information or event information to be acquired will be at least weather information or event information linked to the area where the customer contracted by the retail electricity provider is located.

[0040] The market transaction price acquisition unit 110c acquires actual transaction prices that show the actual wholesale electricity market prices for the first period. The actual transaction price is the price in market transactions in the wholesale electricity market, and includes the price (e.g., unit price) at which retail electricity businesses trade electricity in the wholesale electricity market. The actual transaction price includes, for example, the actual price at which electricity was traded in the spot market during the first period to supply electricity to consumers (spot market transaction price) and the actual price at which electricity was traded in the advance market during the first period to supply electricity to consumers (advance market transaction price). The spot market transaction price and the advance market transaction price may be from the same period or from different periods. The market transaction price acquisition unit 110c acquires actual transaction prices from a server device or the like that manages the wholesale electricity market. The spot market transaction price is an example of a first price, and the advance market transaction price is an example of a second price. Furthermore, the spot market transaction price includes, for example, at least one of the actual transactions when electricity was procured from the spot market and the actual transactions when electricity was sold to the spot market, and the ahead market transaction price includes, for example, at least one of the actual transactions when electricity was procured from the ahead market and the actual transactions when electricity was sold to the ahead market.

[0041] The electricity sales volume acquisition unit 110a, the weather information acquisition unit 110b, and the market transaction price acquisition unit 110c are configured to include, for example, a communication circuit (communication module). At least one of the electricity sales volume acquisition unit 110a, the weather information acquisition unit 110b, and the market transaction price acquisition unit 110c may be configured to include a keyboard, buttons, a touch panel, etc., and may acquire various information through input from the administrator of the retail electricity business operator, etc. Furthermore, the electricity sales volume acquisition unit 110a, the weather information acquisition unit 110b, and the market transaction price acquisition unit 110c may be implemented as a single device or as separate devices.

[0042] The Adjusted Power Quantity Forecasting Unit 120 acquires the adjusted power quantity, which indicates the amount of electricity that needs to be traded in the wholesale power trading market. In this embodiment, the Adjusted Power Quantity Forecasting Unit 120 acquires the adjusted power quantity by predicting the adjusted power quantity, which indicates the amount of electricity that needs to be traded in the wholesale power trading market during the second period, based on the amount of electricity sold, weather information, the customer master table, and planned values. First, the Adjusted Power Quantity Forecasting Unit 120 predicts the electricity demand for the second period based on the amount of electricity sold, weather information, and the customer master table. For example, the Adjusted Power Quantity Forecasting Unit 120 calculates the basic electricity demand based on the amount of electricity sold when the weather conditions are the same as the weather forecast for the second period. The basic electricity demand may be the average, median, mode, maximum, or minimum value of the amount of electricity sold. Then, the Adjusted Power Quantity Forecasting Unit 120 calculates the electricity demand for the second period by performing calculations on the basic electricity demand according to the customer master table. Calculations based on the customer master table may, for example, be performed by reducing the amount of electricity consumed by a predetermined amount from the basic electricity demand or by decreasing the coefficient if the customer is closed on a holiday or similar day and electricity consumption is expected to decrease, or by increasing the amount of electricity consumed by a predetermined amount from the basic electricity demand or by increasing the coefficient if the day is an event day or similar day and electricity consumption is expected to increase, and by increasing the amount of electricity consumed by a predetermined amount or by increasing the coefficient.

[0043] The method for calculating electricity demand is not limited to this, and any existing calculation method may be used. For example, the power adjustment forecasting unit 120 only needs to predict electricity demand based on the amount of electricity sold, and does not need to use at least one of the weather information and the customer master table. In this case, the power adjustment forecasting unit 120 may predict the electricity demand for the second period as the average, median, mode, maximum, or minimum value of the amount of electricity sold in the first period. The first period may include periods with the same attributes as the second period, and the first and second periods may be periods with the same, for example, season, day of the week, or weather information.

[0044] The power adjustment forecasting unit 120 then predicts the amount of power adjustment required for the second period based on the power demand for the second period and the planned value for the second period. The power adjustment forecasting unit 120 may, for example, calculate the difference between the power demand and the planned value as the amount of power adjustment. The power adjustment forecasting unit 120 may, for example, calculate the amount of power shortage if the value obtained by subtracting the planned value from the power demand is positive. Also, the power adjustment forecasting unit 120 may calculate the absolute value of the amount of surplus power if the value obtained by subtracting the planned value from the power demand is negative. In this way, when a power shortage is predicted, the power adjustment forecasting unit 120 may predict the amount of power to be procured from the wholesale power trading market (an example of power adjustment), and when a power surplus is predicted, it may predict the amount of power to be sold to the wholesale power trading market (an example of power adjustment).

[0045] The adjustment power amount forecasting unit 120 forecasts the adjustment power amount before the start of bidding in the spot market the previous day. The adjustment power amount forecasting unit 120 forecasts the adjustment power amount for each demand time unit. In this way, the adjustment power amount forecasting unit 120 functions as an adjustment power amount acquisition unit that acquires the electricity demand amount by forecasting the electricity demand amount for the second period.

[0046] Furthermore, the power adjustment forecasting unit 120 may predict a power amount including prediction errors as the power adjustment amount. The power adjustment forecasting unit 120 may calculate the error in the power adjustment amount based, for example, on variations in the amount of power sold, variations in weather information, or customer information. In this way, the power adjustment forecasting unit 120 may predict a range of power adjustment amount including upper and lower limits.

[0047] The spot market price forecasting unit 130 forecasts the spot market transaction forecast price for the day (second period) to be executed in the spot market, in units of demand time, based on actual transaction prices (actual spot market transaction prices). The spot market price forecasting unit 130 forecasts, for example, the transaction forecast price in the spot market. The spot market price forecasting unit 130 may, for example, forecast the average, median, mode, maximum, or minimum of the actual transaction prices for the first period as the transaction forecast price for the second period.

[0048] The spot market price forecasting unit 130 may forecast the spot market transaction forecast price to be executed in the spot market on the day (second period) in demand time units, based on actual transaction prices and weather information. The spot market price forecasting unit 130 calculates the spot market transaction forecast price for the second period based on weather information for the first and second periods and the spot market transaction forecast price for the first period. The spot market price forecasting unit 130 may also calculate the spot market transaction forecast price as the actual spot market transaction price, including estimation errors. The spot market price forecasting unit 130 may, for example, calculate the estimation error of the spot market transaction forecast price based on the variability of the spot market transaction forecast price. In this way, the spot market price forecasting unit 130 may forecast a range of spot market transaction forecast prices, including upper and lower limits of the spot market transaction forecast price.

[0049] The spot market price forecasting unit 130 may calculate the same spot market transaction price nationwide, or it may calculate the same spot market transaction price for each area. The spot market price forecasting unit 130 is an example of the previous day's market price forecasting unit, and the spot market transaction forecast price is an example of the previous day's market transaction forecast price.

[0050] The pre-hour market price forecasting unit 140 forecasts the pre-hour market transaction forecast price for the day (second period) to be executed in the pre-hour market, in units of demand time, based on the actual transaction price (pre-hour market transaction price). The pre-hour market price forecasting unit 140 forecasts, for example, the transaction forecast price in the pre-hour market. The pre-hour market price forecasting unit 140 may, for example, forecast the average, median, mode, maximum, or minimum of the actual transaction prices in the first period as the transaction forecast price for the second period.

[0051] The pre-hourly market price forecasting unit 140 forecasts the pre-hourly market transaction forecast price to be executed in the pre-hourly market on the day (second period) in demand time units, based on actual transaction prices (pre-hourly market transaction prices) and weather information. The pre-hourly market price forecasting unit 140 calculates the pre-hourly market transaction forecast price for the second period based on the weather information for the first and second periods and the actual pre-hourly market transaction prices for the first period. The pre-hourly market price forecasting unit 140 may also calculate a price including estimation error as the pre-hourly market transaction forecast price. The pre-hourly market price forecasting unit 140 may, for example, calculate the estimation error of the pre-hourly market transaction forecast price based on the variability of actual pre-hourly market transaction prices. In this way, the pre-hourly market price forecasting unit 140 may also forecast a range of pre-hourly market transaction forecast prices, including upper and lower limits of the pre-hourly market transaction forecast price.

[0052] The pre-hourly market price forecasting unit 140 may calculate the same pre-hourly market transaction actual price nationwide, or it may calculate the same pre-hourly market transaction actual price for each area. The pre-hourly market price forecasting unit 140 is an example of the day's market price forecasting unit, and the pre-hourly market transaction actual price is an example of the day's market transaction forecasting unit price.

[0053] The spot market adjustment profit and loss estimation unit 150 acquires spot market adjustment estimated profit and loss in demand time units, which shows the profit and loss when the adjustment amount of electricity is traded in the spot market. If the adjustment amount of electricity includes a power shortage, the spot market adjustment profit and loss estimation unit 150 acquires spot market procurement estimated profit and loss in demand time units, which shows the profit and loss when the adjustment amount of electricity is procured from the spot market. For example, the spot market adjustment profit and loss estimation unit 150 acquires spot market procurement estimated profit and loss when all of the adjustment amount of electricity is procured from the spot market. In this embodiment, the spot market adjustment profit and loss estimation unit 150 estimates spot market procurement estimated profit and loss, which shows the profit and loss of the market procurement portion on the previous day, based on the adjustment amount of electricity, the electricity sales price, and the predicted transaction price (spot market transaction predicted price). The market procurement portion may be the adjustment amount of electricity. In this way, the spot market adjustment profit and loss estimation unit 150 functions as a spot market adjustment profit and loss acquisition unit that acquires spot market procurement estimated profit and loss by estimating the spot market procurement estimated profit and loss.

[0054] The spot market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 150 estimates the spot market procurement estimated profit / loss by calculating the profit / loss of market procurement based on, for example, the following (Equation 1). The spot market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 150 calculates the spot market procurement estimated profit / loss for each demand time unit using (Equation 1). For example, if the adjustment amount includes a power shortage, the spot market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 150 calculates the profit / loss for the time period in which the power shortage occurs (for example, the time period "0:00-0:30" shown in Figure 3 described later) using the following (Equation 1).

[0055] Estimated profit / loss from spot market procurement = Adjusted electricity amount × (Selling price - Forecasted spot market transaction price) ... (Equation 1)

[0056] The spot market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 150 can also be said to calculate the profit or loss of a retail electricity provider with respect to the adjusted amount of electricity. This profit or loss can be either a profit or a loss. For example, if the spot market transaction forecast price exceeds the electricity selling price, a loss may occur.

[0057] Furthermore, if the adjusted electricity amount includes a surplus of electricity, the spot market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 150 obtains the spot market sale estimated profit / loss, which indicates the profit or loss when the adjusted electricity amount is sold to the spot market, on a demand time-limited basis. For example, the spot market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 150 obtains the spot market sale estimated profit / loss when all of the adjusted electricity amount is sold to the spot market. In this embodiment, the spot market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 150 estimates the spot market sale estimated profit / loss (spot market sale estimated profit), which indicates the profit or loss related to the surplus in the second period, based on the adjusted electricity amount and the predicted transaction unit price (spot market transaction predicted price). For example, the spot market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 150 estimates the spot market sale estimated profit / loss by calculating the profit when the surplus is sold to the spot market based on the following (Equation 2). The spot market adjustment profit and loss estimation unit 150 calculates the profit and loss for the time period in which the adjustment amount includes a surplus of electricity (for example, the time period "0:30-1:00" shown in Figure 3) using the following formula (Equation 2).

[0058] Estimated profit / loss from spot market sales = Adjusted electricity amount × Forecasted unit price for spot market transactions... (Equation 2)

[0059] Furthermore, since it is possible that there may be no buyers for the surplus in the spot market, the spot market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 150 may uniformly set the spot market sale estimated profit / loss to 0.

[0060] The spot market adjusted profit and loss estimation unit 150 determines, for example, based on the adjusted electricity amount, which of the calculation formulas (Formula 1) and (Formula 2) to use to calculate the profit and loss for each predetermined period, and estimates the profit and loss for the predetermined period using the determined calculation formula.

[0061] The spot market adjusted profit / loss estimation unit 150 is an example of the previous day's market adjusted profit / loss estimation unit, and the spot market procurement estimated profit / loss and spot market sales estimated profit / loss are examples of spot market adjusted estimated profit / loss. The spot market adjusted estimated profit / loss is estimated, for example, for each predetermined period. The spot market adjusted profit / loss estimation unit 150 only needs to estimate at least one of the spot market procurement estimated profit / loss and the spot market sales estimated profit / loss. The spot market adjusted estimated profit / loss only needs to include at least one of the spot market procurement estimated profit / loss and the spot market sales estimated profit / loss. Furthermore, the spot market adjusted estimated profit / loss is an example of the previous day's market adjusted estimated profit / loss.

[0062] Furthermore, the spot market adjusted profit / loss estimation unit 150 may estimate spot market adjusted profit / loss including the error if, for example, at least one of the adjusted electricity amount and the spot market transaction forecast price includes the error. The spot market adjusted profit / loss estimation unit 150 may also estimate a range of spot market adjusted profit / loss including an upper limit and a lower limit for the spot market adjusted profit / loss.

[0063] The advance market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 obtains advance market adjustment estimated profit / loss in demand time units, which shows the profit or loss when trading the adjustment amount in the advance market. If the adjustment amount includes a power shortage, the advance market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 obtains advance market procurement estimated profit / loss in demand time units, which shows the profit or loss when procuring the adjustment amount from the advance market. For example, the advance market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 obtains advance market procurement estimated profit / loss when all of the adjustment amount is procured from the advance market. In this embodiment, the advance market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 estimates advance market procurement estimated profit / loss, which shows the profit or loss of market procurement on the day (second period), based on the adjustment amount, the electricity selling price, and the predicted transaction price (advance market transaction predicted price). Market procurement may refer to the adjustment amount. Thus, the pre-hourly market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 functions as a pre-hourly market adjustment profit / loss acquisition unit that acquires the pre-hourly market procurement estimated profit / loss by estimating the pre-hourly market procurement estimated profit / loss.

[0064] The pre-hour market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 estimates the pre-hour market procurement estimated profit / loss by calculating the profit / loss of market procurement based on, for example, the following (Equation 3). The pre-hour market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 calculates the pre-hour market procurement estimated profit / loss for each demand time unit using (Equation 3). For example, if the adjusted amount of electricity includes a power shortage, the pre-hour market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 calculates the profit / loss for the time period in which the power shortage occurs (for example, the time period "1:00-1:30" shown in Figure 3) using the following (Equation 3).

[0065] Estimated profit / loss from advance market procurement = Adjusted electricity amount × (Selling price - Forecasted price for advance market transactions) ... (Equation 3)

[0066] The pre-hourly market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 can also be said to calculate the profit or loss of the retail electricity provider with respect to the adjusted amount of electricity. This profit or loss can be either a profit or a loss. For example, if the pre-hourly market transaction forecast price exceeds the electricity selling price, a loss may occur.

[0067] Furthermore, if the adjusted electricity amount includes a surplus of electricity, the advance market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 obtains an estimated advance market sale profit / loss in demand time units, which shows the profit or loss when the adjusted electricity amount is sold to the advance market. For example, the advance market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 obtains an estimated advance market sale profit / loss when all of the adjusted electricity amount is sold to the advance market. In this embodiment, the advance market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 estimates an estimated advance market sale profit / loss (estimated advance market sale profit) that shows the profit or loss related to the surplus in the second period, based on the adjusted electricity amount and the predicted transaction unit price (predicted transaction price in the advance market). For example, the advance market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 estimates the estimated advance market sale profit / loss by calculating the profit when the surplus is sold to the advance market based on the following (Equation 4). The pre-market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 calculates, for example, the profit / loss for the time period in which the power surplus occurs when the amount of adjusted power includes a power surplus, using the following equation (4).

[0068] Estimated profit / loss from sale in the market ahead of time = Adjusted electricity amount × Forecasted unit price of transaction in the market ahead of time ... (Equation 4)

[0069] Furthermore, since it is possible that there may be no buyers for the surplus in the pre-hours market, the pre-hours market adjusted profit / loss estimation unit 160 may uniformly set the estimated profit / loss for pre-hours market sales to 0.

[0070] The pre-market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 determines, for example, based on the amount of adjusted electricity, which of the calculation formulas (Equation 3) and (Equation 4) to use to calculate the profit / loss for each predetermined period, and estimates the profit / loss for that predetermined period using the determined calculation formula.

[0071] The pre-hourly market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 is an example of the same-day market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit, and the pre-hourly market procurement estimated profit / loss and pre-hourly market sale estimated profit / loss are examples of pre-hourly market adjustment estimated profit / loss. The pre-hourly market adjustment estimated profit / loss is estimated, for example, for each predetermined period. The pre-hourly market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 only needs to estimate at least one of the pre-hourly market procurement estimated profit / loss and the pre-hourly market sale estimated profit / loss. The pre-hourly market adjustment estimated profit / loss only needs to include at least one of the pre-hourly market procurement estimated profit / loss and the pre-hourly market sale estimated profit / loss. Furthermore, the pre-hourly market adjustment estimated profit / loss is an example of the same-day market adjustment estimated profit / loss.

[0072] Furthermore, the pre-hourly market adjusted profit / loss estimation unit 160 may estimate pre-hourly market adjusted estimated profit / loss including the error if, for example, at least one of the adjusted electricity amount and the pre-hourly market transaction forecast price includes the error. The pre-hourly market adjusted profit / loss estimation unit 160 may also estimate a range of pre-hourly market adjusted estimated profit / loss including an upper limit and a lower limit for the pre-hourly market adjusted estimated profit / loss.

[0073] The adjustment plan creation unit 170 compares the spot market adjusted estimated profit / loss and the hourly-ahead market adjusted estimated profit / loss for each demand time unit and creates an adjustment plan based on the comparison results. For example, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 creates an adjustment plan that includes actions to maximize the retail electricity provider's revenue based on the comparison results of the spot market adjusted estimated profit / loss and the hourly-ahead market adjusted estimated profit / loss for each demand time unit. For example, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 may compare the estimated profit / loss in the spot market and the hourly-ahead market for each demand time unit and create an adjustment plan to take actions to maximize revenue. It can also be said that the adjustment plan creation unit 170 determines the adjustment plan based on the comparison results.

[0074] Furthermore, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 may create an adjustment plan that includes actions corresponding to the profit or loss with the smallest estimation error, if the estimated profit or loss for the spot market and the estimated profit or loss for the pre-hour market are within a range that includes estimation errors, and the ranges of the estimated profit or loss for the spot market and the estimated profit or loss for the pre-hour market overlap in at least part. Here, "actions" include either trading the adjusted electricity amount in the spot market or trading it in the pre-hour market.

[0075] As described above, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 compares the magnitude of the spot market adjustment estimated profit / loss and the pre-hour market adjustment estimated profit / loss for each demand time unit and creates an adjustment plan to trade the adjustment amount in the market with the larger profit. Alternatively, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 may create an adjustment plan that includes the actions for each demand time unit based on the comparison results for each demand time unit.

[0076] The output unit 180 outputs information including the adjustment plan created by the adjustment plan creation unit 170 to the presentation unit 300. The output unit 180 is configured to include, for example, a communication circuit (communication module). The information including the adjustment plan includes, for example, the adjustment target and adjustment amount (adjusted power amount) for each demand time unit, but may also include the spot market adjustment estimated profit / loss and the time-ahead market adjustment estimated profit / loss.

[0077] The storage unit is a storage device that stores the customer master table 191, the supply capacity table 192, and the electricity sales price table 193. The customer master table 191, the supply capacity table 192, and the electricity sales price table 193 may be stored in a single storage device, or they may be stored in different storage devices. The storage unit is implemented by an HDD (Hard Disk Drive) or non-volatile semiconductor memory, etc., but is not limited to these.

[0078] The customer master table 191 contains customer-specific information, such as location information for the customer's facilities and calendar information. Location information includes, for example, the latitude and longitude of the customer's facilities, and calendar information includes information such as business days and events at the customer's facilities for at least one of the first and second periods. The customer master table 191 is an example of customer information.

[0079] Furthermore, calendar information such as working days, business days, and holidays may be included in the customer information, or it may be acquired externally via the weather information acquisition unit 110b. In addition, the customer master table 191 may be updated based on calendar information acquired externally via the weather information acquisition unit 110b.

[0080] The supply capacity table 192 registers the planned amount of electricity that retail electricity providers can supply to consumers during the second period (also referred to as the planned supply amount). The supply capacity table 192 is registered, for example, on or before the previous day. The supply capacity table 192 includes, for example, the planned amount for each predetermined period in the second period (for example, each demand time unit). The planned supply amount may mean the amount of electricity that the retail electricity provider purchases from power generators under bilateral contracts, or, if the retail electricity provider owns power generation facilities (for example, a power plant), the amount of electricity that the retail electricity provider plans to draw from power generation facilities within the retail electricity provider.

[0081] Table 193 of the electricity sales price registers the electricity sales price when retail electricity providers sell electricity to consumers. The electricity sales price is predetermined, for example, by a contract between the retail electricity provider and the consumer.

[0082] The display unit 300 presents information, including the adjustment plan of the retail electricity business operator from the power adjustment plan creation device 100, to the manager of the retail electricity business operator. The display unit 300 is a display device such as a liquid crystal display device and presents the information as an image, but it may also present the information as audio or the like. The display unit 300 may be implemented as a stationary device, or as a display unit on a portable terminal held by the manager of the retail electricity business operator. The display unit 300 is installed in a remote location from the power adjustment plan creation device 100, but is not limited to that.

[0083] [1-2. Operation of the Power Adjustment Planning Device] Next, the operation (power adjustment plan creation method) of the power adjustment plan creation device 100 configured as described above will be explained with reference to Figure 2. Figure 2 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power adjustment plan creation device 100 according to this embodiment. The operation shown in Figure 2 is performed, for example, before bidding on the spot market to adjust the amount of power to be adjusted for the next day (second period). Note that Figure 2 shows an example of operation when only the spot market procurement estimated profit and loss is estimated from the spot market adjustment estimated profit and loss, and when only the time-before market procurement estimated profit and loss is estimated from the time-before market adjustment estimated profit and loss.

[0084] As shown in Figure 2, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 acquires sales electricity volume, weather information, and transaction history prices (S101). Specifically, the sales electricity volume acquisition unit 110a acquires the sales electricity volume for the first period, the weather information acquisition unit 110b acquires weather information for the first and second periods, and the market transaction price acquisition unit 110c acquires the spot market transaction history price and the time-ahead market transaction history price for the first period. The timing and order in which the sales electricity volume acquisition unit 110a, the weather information acquisition unit 110b, and the market transaction price acquisition unit 110c acquire the various information are not particularly limited. Furthermore, the first period in which sales electricity volume is acquired and the first period in which transaction history prices are acquired may be the same period or may be different periods.

[0085] The electricity sales volume acquisition unit 110a outputs the electricity sales volume to the adjusted electricity volume forecasting unit 120. The weather information acquisition unit 110b outputs weather information to at least the spot market price forecasting unit 130 and the hourly market price forecasting unit 140, and in this embodiment, it also outputs it to the adjusted electricity volume forecasting unit 120. The market transaction price acquisition unit 110c outputs the actual spot market transaction price to the spot market price forecasting unit 130 and the actual hourly market transaction price to the hourly market price forecasting unit 140.

[0086] Next, the power adjustment amount forecasting unit 120 forecasts the electricity demand for the second period based on at least the amount of electricity sold, and then forecasts the amount of power adjustment for the second period based on the forecasted electricity demand and the planned value (supply plan amount) (S102). In the following, the processing when the amount of power adjustment including a power shortage is predicted in step S102 will be mainly explained.

[0087] The adjustment power amount prediction unit 120 outputs the predicted adjustment power amount to the spot market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 150 and the time-ahead market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160. The adjustment power amount prediction unit 120 may also output the predicted adjustment power amount to the output unit 180. Step S102 is an example of the first acquisition step.

[0088] Next, the spot market price forecasting unit 130 forecasts the spot market transaction price to be executed in the spot market on the previous day in demand time units, based on the actual spot market transaction price and weather information (S103). The spot market price forecasting unit 130 outputs the forecasted spot market transaction price to the spot market adjusted profit and loss estimation unit 150. Alternatively, the spot market price forecasting unit 130 may output the forecasted spot market transaction price to the output unit 180.

[0089] Next, the spot market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 150 estimates the spot market procurement estimated profit / loss based on the adjusted electricity amount, the electricity sales price, and the spot market transaction forecast price (S104). The spot market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 150 estimates the spot market procurement estimated profit / loss in demand time units, for example, using (Equation 1). The spot market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 150 outputs the estimated spot market procurement estimated profit / loss to the adjustment plan creation unit 170. Alternatively, the spot market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 150 may output the estimated spot market procurement estimated profit / loss to the output unit 180. Step S104 is an example of the second acquisition step.

[0090] Furthermore, if an estimated profit or loss from spot market sales is estimated, the spot market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 150 estimates the spot market sales profit or loss if the surplus is sold to the spot market, based on the adjusted electricity amount and the predicted transaction unit price, in step S104. The spot market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 150 estimates the spot market sales profit or loss in demand time units, for example, based on (Equation 2) above. In this case, the spot market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 150 outputs the spot market adjustment estimated profit or loss, which includes either the spot market procurement estimated profit or loss or the spot market sales estimated profit or loss, to the adjustment plan creation unit 170 for each demand time unit.

[0091] Next, the pre-hourly market price forecasting unit 140 forecasts the pre-hourly market transaction price to be executed in the pre-hourly market on the day (second period) in demand time units, based on the actual pre-hourly market transaction price and weather information (S105). The pre-hourly market price forecasting unit 140 outputs the forecasted pre-hourly market transaction price to the pre-hourly market adjusted profit and loss estimation unit 160. Alternatively, the pre-hourly market price forecasting unit 140 may output the forecasted pre-hourly market transaction price to the output unit 180.

[0092] Next, the advance market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 estimates the advance market procurement estimated profit / loss based on the adjusted electricity amount, the electricity sales price, and the advance market transaction forecast price (S106). The advance market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 estimates the advance market procurement estimated profit / loss in demand time units, for example, using (Equation 3). The advance market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 outputs the estimated advance market procurement estimated profit / loss to the adjustment plan creation unit 170. Alternatively, the advance market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 may output the estimated advance market procurement estimated profit / loss to the output unit 180. Step S106 is an example of the third acquisition step.

[0093] Furthermore, if the estimated profit or loss from selling in the advance market is estimated, the advance market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 estimates the estimated profit or loss from selling in the advance market if the surplus is sold in the advance market, based on the adjusted electricity amount and the predicted transaction unit price, in step S106. The advance market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 estimates the estimated profit or loss from selling in the advance market on a demand time unit basis, for example, based on (Equation 4) above. In this case, the advance market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 outputs the advance market adjustment estimated profit or loss, which includes either the estimated profit or loss from procuring in the advance market or the estimated profit or loss from selling in the advance market, to the adjustment plan creation unit 170 for each demand time unit.

[0094] Next, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 compares the spot market adjustment estimated profit / loss and the advance market adjustment estimated profit / loss for each demand time unit and creates an adjustment plan based on the comparison results (S107). Based on the comparison results, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 creates an adjustment plan that includes the result of determining whether to trade the adjustment amount in the spot market or the advance market for each demand time unit. The adjustment plan creation unit 170 outputs the created adjustment plan to the output unit 180. Step S107 is an example of the creation step.

[0095] Next, the output unit 180 outputs information including the retail electricity provider's adjustment plan to the display unit 300 (S108). The output unit 180 outputs this information to the display unit 300 before bidding on the spot market to adjust the amount of adjusted electricity for the following day (second period). Step S108 is an example of an output step.

[0096] As a result, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 can present information including the retail electricity provider's adjustment plan to the retail electricity provider's manager, etc., via the presentation unit 300.

[0097] In addition, the output unit 180 may output at least one of the adjusted power amount, the spot market transaction forecast unit price, the time-ahead market transaction forecast unit price, the spot market adjusted estimated profit / loss, and the time-ahead market adjusted estimated profit / loss to the display unit 300 in step S108.

[0098] As a result, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 can present the information used to create the adjustment plan to the manager of the retail electricity business operator, etc., via the presentation unit 300.

[0099] Here, an example of an image displayed on the display unit 300 will be explained with reference to Figure 3. Figure 3 is a diagram showing an example of the display on the display unit 300 according to this embodiment. Note that it shows unit prices such as A1, A2, B1, B2, etc., and within the same alphabet, a smaller number indicates a smaller unit price.

[0100] As shown in FIG. 3, the adjustment plan includes the date, time zone, adjustment destination, adjustment power amount, spot market trading forecast unit price, and pre-time market trading forecast unit price. The adjustment plan may include at least one of the spot market adjustment estimated profit and loss and the pre-time market adjustment estimated profit and loss instead of, or together with, the adjustment power amount, the spot market trading forecast unit price, and the pre-time market trading forecast unit price.

[0101] The date is the day for supplying power, for example, the next day.

[0102] The time zone is the time zone in demand time units. In this embodiment, it is a time zone every 30 minutes.

[0103] The adjustment destination is information indicating, for each demand time unit, whether to trade the adjustment power amount in either the spot market or the pre-time market. For example, "spot market" or "pre-time market" is displayed. Note that a time zone that does not need to be adjusted is indicated by, for example, "-".

[0104] The adjustment power amount is information indicating, for each demand time unit, the power amount to be adjusted (the power amount in shortage or the surplus power amount). 0 kWh indicates that there is no shortage or surplus power amount, that is, the predicted power demand and the planned value match.

[0105] The spot market trading unit price is information indicating the spot market trading unit price for each demand time unit. The pre-time market trading unit price is information indicating the pre-time market trading unit price for each demand time unit.

[0106] The adjustment power amount for the time zone 0:00 - 0:30 is 2000 kWh in shortage. In this case, it is assumed that 2000 kWh of power is procured from the wholesale power trading market. In the time zone 0:00 - 0:30, since the A1 (<A2) yen / kWh of the spot market trading forecast unit price is lower than the A2 yen / kWh of the pre-time market trading forecast unit price, the procurement destination for the 2000 kWh of adjustment power amount is the spot market.

[0107] Furthermore, the surplus of adjusted electricity during the time period 0:30-1:00 is 2300kWh. In this case, it is assumed that 2300kWh of electricity will be sold to the wholesale electricity trading market. During the time period 0:30-1:00, the spot market trading price of B2 (>B1) yen / kWh is higher than the pre-hour market trading price of B1 yen / kWh, so the spot market is the destination for the 2300kWh of adjusted electricity.

[0108] Furthermore, the adjustment power supply for the time period 1:00-1:30 is insufficient by 1500kWh. In this case, it is assumed that 1500kWh of electricity will be procured from the wholesale electricity trading market. For the time period 1:00-1:30, the spot market trading forecast price C2 (>C1) yen / kWh is higher than the hourly market trading forecast price C1 yen / kWh, so the source of the adjustment power supply of 1500kWh is the hourly market.

[0109] The adjustment plan only needs to include at least the date, time, and target of the adjustment. In addition, at least one of the adjusted electricity amount, the spot market transaction forecast unit price, and the hour-ahead market transaction forecast unit price may include an upper and lower limit range.

[0110] [1-3. Effects, etc.] As described above, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 according to this embodiment is a power adjustment plan creation device that creates a power adjustment plan when a retail electricity provider (an example of a business that sells electricity) supplies electricity to consumers. The power adjustment plan creation device 100 includes an adjustment power amount forecasting unit 120 (an example of an adjustment power amount acquisition unit) that acquires an adjustment power amount indicating the amount of power that needs to be adjusted from the wholesale power trading market, including the spot market (an example of the day-ahead market) and the hour-ahead market (an example of the day-ahead market); a spot market adjustment profit and loss estimation unit 150 (an example of a day-ahead market adjustment profit and loss acquisition unit) that acquires a spot market adjustment estimated profit and loss indicating the profit and loss when the adjustment power amount is traded in the spot market, on a demand time-limited basis; an hour-ahead market adjustment profit and loss estimation unit 160 (an example of a day-ahead market adjustment profit and loss acquisition unit) that acquires an hour-ahead market adjustment estimated profit and loss indicating the profit and loss when the adjustment power amount is traded in the hour-ahead market, on a demand time-limited basis; an adjustment plan creation unit 170 that compares the spot market adjustment estimated profit and loss and the hour-ahead market adjustment estimated profit and loss on a demand time-limited basis and creates an adjustment plan based on the comparison results; and an output unit 180 that outputs the adjustment plan.

[0111] As a result, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 compares the estimated profit and loss for spot market adjustments with the estimated profit and loss for time-ahead market adjustments, making it possible to create an adjustment plan that includes actions (adjustment targets) corresponding to the higher profit or loss. Therefore, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 can create a highly economical power adjustment plan. Such an adjustment plan is useful for retail electricity providers when creating sales plans.

[0112] Furthermore, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 includes a sales volume acquisition unit 110a that acquires sales volume showing the actual sales volume of electricity sold to consumers in the past first period, a market transaction price acquisition unit 110c that acquires actual transaction prices showing the actual electricity trading market prices for the first period, a storage unit that stores the planned value of the amount of electricity that can be supplied to consumers and the unit price for selling electricity to consumers, a spot market unit price forecasting unit 130 that forecasts the spot market transaction forecasting unit price to be concluded in the spot market in demand time units based on the spot market transaction forecasting unit price (an example of a first price) included in the transaction forecasting unit price, and a time-ahead market unit price forecasting unit 140 that forecasts the time-ahead market transaction forecasting unit price to be concluded in the time-ahead market for the second period that will be the target of future electricity supply in demand time units, based on the time-ahead market transaction forecasting unit price (an example of a second price) included in the transaction forecasting unit price. The power adjustment forecasting unit 120 then forecasts the amount of power adjustment in the second period based on the amount of power sold and the planned value, the spot market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 150 estimates the spot market adjustment estimated profit / loss in demand time units based on the power selling price, the spot market transaction forecast price, and the amount of power adjustment, and the time-ahead market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 estimates the time-ahead market adjustment estimated profit / loss in demand time units based on the power selling price, the time-ahead market transaction forecast price, and the amount of power adjustment.

[0113] As a result, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 can accurately predict the spot market transaction forecast price and the time-ahead market transaction forecast price by using past performance data. In other words, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 can accurately estimate the spot market adjustment estimated profit / loss and the time-ahead market adjustment estimated profit / loss, so it can accurately determine the relative magnitudes even when the difference between the spot market adjustment estimated profit / loss and the time-ahead market adjustment estimated profit / loss is small. Therefore, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 can create a highly economical power adjustment plan regardless of the magnitude of the difference between the spot market adjustment estimated profit / loss and the time-ahead market adjustment estimated profit / loss. Furthermore, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 can obtain the spot market adjustment estimated profit / loss and the time-ahead market transaction forecast price by estimation. In other words, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 can automatically perform everything from obtaining the spot market adjustment estimated profit / loss and the time-ahead market transaction forecast price to creating a highly economical adjustment plan. Therefore, the convenience of the power adjustment plan creation device 100 is improved.

[0114] Furthermore, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 further includes a weather information acquisition unit 110b that acquires weather information for the first and second periods, a storage unit that further stores customer information including at least one of the customer's facility location information and business day information, and the power adjustment amount prediction unit 120 further predicts the power adjustment amount based on the weather information and customer information.

[0115] As a result, the amount of adjusted power is calculated using at least one of weather information and consumer information, which is expected to improve the accuracy of the prediction of adjusted power.

[0116] Furthermore, the spot market price forecasting unit 130 forecasts the spot market transaction forecast price based on weather information, and the time-before market price forecasting unit 140 forecasts the time-before market transaction forecast price based on weather information.

[0117] As a result, spot market trading forecasts and hourly market trading forecasts are calculated using weather information, which is expected to improve the accuracy of these forecasts.

[0118] Furthermore, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 creates an adjustment plan that includes actions that maximize the profits and losses of the retail electricity provider, based on the comparison results.

[0119] As a result, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 can create an adjustment plan that maximizes the profits and losses of the retail electricity provider, making it possible to create an even more economical adjustment plan.

[0120] Furthermore, as described above, the power adjustment plan creation method according to this embodiment is a power adjustment plan creation method for creating a power adjustment plan when a retail electricity business operator supplies electricity to consumers. The power adjustment plan creation method includes a first acquisition step (S102) of acquiring an adjustment amount indicating the amount of electricity that needs to be adjusted with the wholesale electricity trading market, including the spot market and the advance market; a second acquisition step (S104) of acquiring spot market adjustment estimated profit and loss indicating the profit and loss when the adjustment amount is traded in the spot market in demand time units; a third acquisition step (S106) of acquiring advance market adjustment estimated profit and loss indicating the profit and loss when the adjustment amount is traded in the advance market in demand time units; a creation step (S107) of comparing the spot market adjustment estimated profit and loss and the advance market adjustment estimated profit and loss in each demand time unit and creating an adjustment plan based on the comparison result; and an output step (S108) of outputting the adjustment plan.

[0121] This achieves the same effect as the power adjustment plan creation device 100 described above.

[0122] (Embodiment 2) The power adjustment plan creation device according to this embodiment will be described below with reference to Figures 4 and 5. Note that the following description will focus on the differences from Embodiment 1, and the same or similar content as in Embodiment 1 will be omitted or simplified.

[0123] [2-1. Configuration of the Power Adjustment Plan Presentation System] First, the configuration of the power adjustment plan presentation system equipped with the power adjustment plan creation device according to this embodiment will be described with reference to Figure 4. Figure 4 is a functional block diagram showing the configuration of the power adjustment plan presentation system 1a according to this embodiment. The power adjustment plan creation device 100a of the power adjustment plan presentation system 1a according to this embodiment differs from the power adjustment plan creation device 100 of the power adjustment plan presentation system 1 according to Embodiment 1 in that it includes a reception unit 210 that receives input for the adjustment plan presented by the presentation unit 300. In addition, at least one of the adjusted power amount acquisition unit, the spot market adjustment profit / loss acquisition unit, and the time-ahead market adjustment profit / loss acquisition unit is implemented as a user interface unit that receives input in demand time units, and in this embodiment, each of the adjusted power amount acquisition unit, the spot market adjustment profit / loss acquisition unit, and the time-ahead market adjustment profit / loss acquisition unit is implemented as a user interface unit.

[0124] As shown in Figure 4, the power adjustment plan creation device 100a includes a reception unit 210 in addition to the power adjustment plan creation device 100. After the output unit 180 outputs the adjustment plan to the presentation unit 300, the reception unit 210 receives at least one input of the adjustment amount, the spot market transaction forecast unit price for obtaining the spot market adjustment estimated profit / loss, and the time-ahead market transaction forecast unit price for obtaining the time-ahead market adjustment estimated profit / loss. The reception unit 210 can also be said to receive input for the adjustment plan. The reception unit 210 may be configured to include a keyboard, buttons, a touch panel, etc., or it may be configured to include a sound collection device for receiving voice input, etc.

[0125] Furthermore, if the power adjustment plan creation device 100a is configured to predict imbalance unit prices (for example, a configuration that includes an imbalance unit price prediction unit 410 as shown in Figure 8 later), the reception unit 210 may acquire input for the imbalance unit price after the output unit 180 outputs the adjustment plan to the presentation unit 300.

[0126] The adjustment plan creation unit 170 updates the adjustment plan based on the at least one input.

[0127] [2-2. Operation of the Power Adjustment Planning Device] Next, the operation (power adjustment plan creation method) of the power adjustment plan creation device 100a configured as described above will be explained with reference to Figure 5. Figure 5 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power adjustment plan creation device 100a according to this embodiment. The flowchart shown in Figure 5 is executed after the flowchart shown in Figure 2.

[0128] As shown in Figure 5, the reception unit 210 receives at least one input of adjusted power quantity, spot market transaction forecast unit price, and time-ahead market transaction forecast unit price (S201). The reception unit 210 obtains this at least one input, for example, from an administrator, but may also obtain this at least one input, for example, by communication. When the reception unit 210 receives input of adjusted power quantity, it outputs the input adjusted power quantity to the adjusted power quantity forecast unit 120, and the adjusted power quantity forecast unit 120 outputs the input adjusted power quantity to the spot market adjusted profit and loss estimation unit 150 and the time-ahead market adjusted profit and loss estimation unit 160. When the reception unit 210 receives input of spot market transaction forecast unit price, it outputs the input spot market transaction forecast unit price to the spot market unit price forecast unit 130, and the spot market unit price forecast unit 130 outputs the input spot market transaction forecast unit price to the spot market adjusted profit and loss estimation unit 150. When the reception unit 210 receives input for the predicted market trading price ahead of time, it outputs the input predicted market trading price ahead of time to the market price forecasting unit 140, and the market price forecasting unit 140 outputs the input predicted market trading price ahead of time to the adjusted profit and loss estimation unit 160.

[0129] Furthermore, at least one of the adjusted power quantity forecasting unit 120, the spot market price forecasting unit 130, and the hourly market price forecasting unit 140 may use the input values ​​received by the reception unit 210 to make the next forecast.

[0130] The reception unit 210 may also output at least one of the input adjusted power amount, spot market transaction forecast unit price, and hourly market transaction forecast unit price to the spot market adjusted profit and loss estimation unit 150 or the hourly market adjusted profit and loss estimation unit 160.

[0131] Next, the power adjustment plan creation device 100a updates at least one of the spot market adjustment estimated profit / loss and the pre-hour market adjustment estimated profit / loss (S202). The spot market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 150 updates the spot market adjustment estimated profit / loss based on at least one of the adjustment amount and the spot market transaction forecast unit price input to the reception unit 210. The pre-hour market adjustment profit / loss estimation unit 160 also updates the pre-hour market adjustment estimated profit / loss based on at least one of the adjustment amount and the pre-hour market transaction forecast unit price input to the reception unit 210. The updated estimated profit / loss is output to the adjustment plan creation unit 170.

[0132] Next, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 updates the adjustment plan based on the updated estimated profit and loss (S203). If both the spot market adjusted estimated profit and loss and the time-ahead market adjusted estimated profit and loss have been updated, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 compares the updated spot market adjusted estimated profit and loss and the updated time-ahead market adjusted estimated profit and loss for each demand time unit and updates the adjustment plan based on the comparison result. The adjustment plan creation unit 170 outputs the updated adjustment plan to the output unit 180.

[0133] Next, the output unit 180 outputs the updated adjustment plan to the presentation unit 300 (S204).

[0134] As a result, the power adjustment plan creation device 100a can present information including the updated adjustment plan of the retail electricity business operator to the manager of the retail electricity business operator via the presentation unit 300. The presentation unit 300 may, for example, display the adjustment plan before and after the update side by side.

[0135] [2-3. Effects, etc.] As described above, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 according to this embodiment further includes a receiving unit 210 that receives at least one input of adjustment amount, spot market transaction forecast unit price, time-ahead market transaction forecast unit price, and imbalance forecast unit price after the output unit 180 outputs an adjustment plan. The adjustment plan creation unit 170 then updates the adjustment plan based on the at least one of the adjustment amount, spot market transaction forecast unit price, and time-ahead market transaction forecast unit price received by the receiving unit 210.

[0136] As a result, the power adjustment plan creation device 100 can modify the adjustment plan based on input from the retail electricity provider's administrator or other relevant parties when at least one of the predicted values ​​for the adjustment amount, spot market transaction forecast unit price, time-ahead market transaction forecast unit price, and imbalance forecast unit price is unnatural. Furthermore, if there are factors other than profit and loss (for example, constraints on the adjustment destination or adjustment amount), the power adjustment plan creation device 100 can modify the adjustment plan to reflect those factors.

[0137] (Embodiment 3) The power adjustment plan creation device according to this embodiment will be described below with reference to Figures 6 and 7. The following description will focus on the differences from Embodiment 1, and will omit or simplify explanations of content that is the same as or similar to Embodiment 1.

[0138] [3-1. Configuration of the Power Adjustment Plan Presentation System] First, the configuration of the power adjustment plan presentation system equipped with the power adjustment plan creation device according to this embodiment will be described with reference to Figure 6. Figure 6 is a functional block diagram showing the configuration of the power adjustment plan presentation system 1b according to this embodiment. The power adjustment plan creation device 100b of the power adjustment plan presentation system 1b according to this embodiment differs from the power adjustment plan creation device 100 of the power adjustment plan presentation system 1 according to Embodiment 1 in that it includes a market bidding unit 310. In addition, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 also outputs the created adjustment plan to the market bidding unit 310.

[0139] As shown in Figure 6, the power adjustment plan creation device 100b includes a market bidding unit 310 in addition to the power adjustment plan creation device 100. The market bidding unit 310 executes the process of bidding on the amount of adjustment power to the wholesale power trading market in demand hour units based on the adjustment plan. When trading the amount of adjustment power in the spot market, the market bidding unit 310 bids in the spot market at a predetermined time on the previous day, and when trading the amount of adjustment power in the advance market, it bids in the advance market on the current day (second period).

[0140] Furthermore, the power adjustment plan creation device 100b may further include a bidding information acquisition unit that acquires bidding information related to bids to the wholesale power trading market by the market bidding unit 310. The bidding information acquisition unit may be implemented, for example, by the reception unit 210 shown in Embodiment 2. In other words, the reception unit 210 may function as a bidding information acquisition unit that acquires bidding information. The bidding information acquisition unit outputs the input information received from the administrator, etc., to the market bidding unit 310. The bidding information may be information indicating permission to execute a bid, or it may be input of the amount of electricity for market adjustment for each demand time unit or the adjustment destination (input to partially change the adjustment plan). The bidding information acquisition unit may also provide an API (Application Programming Interface) and accept input via the API from a terminal such as a smartphone.

[0141] [3-2. Operation of the Power Adjustment Planning Device] Next, the operation (power adjustment plan creation method) of the power adjustment plan creation device 100b configured as described above will be explained with reference to Figure 7. Figure 7 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power adjustment plan creation device 100b according to this embodiment. The flowchart shown in Figure 7 includes step S301 in addition to the flowchart shown in Figure 2. Note that, as in Figure 2, Figure 7 shows an example of operation when only the spot market procurement estimated profit and loss is estimated from the spot market adjustment estimated profit and loss, and only the time-ahead market procurement estimated profit and loss is estimated from the time-ahead market adjustment estimated profit and loss.

[0142] As shown in Figure 7, the market bidding unit 310 executes the bidding process (S301) after the output unit 180 outputs the adjustment plan. The bidding method is not particularly limited, but the bidding is executed by inputting into the JEPX website or by performing telegraphic communication such as a Web API (using the API of the power trading market). In addition, if the power adjustment plan creation device 100b is equipped with a display unit, the market bidding unit 310 may display the power trading market website on the display unit. This makes it possible to automate the process of adjusting the amount of power that needs to be adjusted from the planned value (for example, the amount of power that is insufficient or the amount of power that is in surplus).

[0143] Furthermore, the market bidding unit 310 executes a bidding process to procure electricity if the amount of electricity to be procured includes a shortage of electricity, and executes a bidding process to sell electricity if the amount of electricity to be procured includes a surplus of electricity.

[0144] [3-3. Effects, etc.] As described above, the power adjustment plan creation device 100b according to this embodiment further comprises a market bidding unit 310 that bids on the amount of adjustment power to the power trading market, and a bidding information acquisition unit (for example, the reception unit 210 in Embodiment 2) that acquires bidding information related to the bidding to the wholesale power trading market by the market bidding unit 310.

[0145] As a result, the power adjustment plan creation device 100b can automatically bid on electricity corresponding to the amount of electricity to be adjusted in the spot market or the advance market, according to the bidding information.

[0146] (Embodiment 4) The power adjustment plan creation device according to this embodiment will be described below with reference to Figures 8 and 9. The following description will focus on the differences from Embodiment 1, and will omit or simplify explanations of content that is the same as or similar to Embodiment 1.

[0147] [4-1. Configuration of the Power Adjustment Plan Presentation System] First, the configuration of the power adjustment plan presentation system equipped with the power adjustment plan creation device according to this embodiment will be described with reference to Figure 8. Figure 8 is a functional block diagram showing the configuration of the power adjustment plan presentation system 1c according to this embodiment. The power adjustment plan creation device 100c of the power adjustment plan presentation system 1c according to this embodiment differs from the power adjustment plan creation device 100 of the power adjustment plan presentation system 1 according to Embodiment 1 in that it is equipped with various components for estimating imbalance estimated losses. In addition, the weather information acquisition unit 110b also outputs the acquired weather information to the imbalance unit price prediction unit 410.

[0148] As shown in Figure 8, the power adjustment plan creation device 100c includes, in addition to the power adjustment plan creation device 100, a supply reserve rate acquisition unit 110d, an imbalance price acquisition unit 110e, an imbalance unit price forecasting unit 410, and an imbalance loss estimation unit 420.

[0149] The supply reserve rate acquisition unit 110d acquires supply reserve rate information, including the power supply reserve rate for each demand time unit in the second period. The supply reserve rate acquisition unit 110d may further acquire supply reserve rate information, including the power supply reserve rate for each demand time unit in the first period. The supply reserve rate acquisition unit 110d acquires the power supply reserve rate from, for example, a server device that manages the power supply reserve rate or a general transmission and distribution company, before bidding in the spot market the previous day.

[0150] The imbalance price acquisition unit 110e acquires the actual imbalance price for the first period. The imbalance price acquisition unit 110e acquires the actual imbalance price from, for example, a server device that manages the actual imbalance price, before bidding on the spot market the previous day. The actual imbalance price may be the price (unit price) for each demand time unit. The actual imbalance price shows the actual imbalance unit price.

[0151] The supply reserve rate acquisition unit 110d and the imbalance price acquisition unit 110e are configured to include, for example, a communication circuit (communication module). At least one of the supply reserve rate acquisition unit 110d and the imbalance price acquisition unit 110e may be configured to include a keyboard, buttons, a touch panel, etc., and may acquire various information through input from the administrator of a retail electricity business operator, etc. Furthermore, the supply reserve rate acquisition unit 110d and the imbalance price acquisition unit 110e may be implemented as a single device or as separate devices. The supply reserve rate acquisition unit 110d and the imbalance price acquisition unit 110e are examples of information acquisition units.

[0152] The imbalance price acquisition unit 110e may be implemented as a user interface unit such as a button that accepts input for the imbalance forecast unit price in demand time units.

[0153] The imbalance price forecasting unit 410 forecasts the imbalance price for the second period, which is the imbalance price, in demand time units, based at least on the supply reserve ratio information. The imbalance price forecasting unit 410 may also forecast the imbalance price for the second period based on the supply reserve ratio information for the second period and a table that associates the supply reserve ratio information with the imbalance price. In addition, the imbalance price forecasting unit 410 may, for example, forecast the imbalance price forecast value when there is a power surplus and the imbalance price forecast value when there is a power shortage, based on the supply reserve ratio information.

[0154] The imbalance unit price forecasting unit 410 may forecast the imbalance forecast unit price in demand time units based on supply reserve ratio information and at least one of the actual imbalance unit price and weather information. The imbalance unit price forecasting unit 410 may calculate the imbalance price forecast value for the second period (today) based on the supply reserve ratio information for the second period, weather information for the first and second periods, and the actual imbalance price for the first period. The imbalance unit price forecasting unit 410 may extract one or more actual imbalance prices from the first period for periods in which the weather information was the same as or similar to that of the second period, and calculate the imbalance price forecast value based on the extracted one or more actual imbalance prices and the imbalance price based on the supply reserve ratio information. The imbalance price forecast value for the second period may be calculated based on the mean, median, mode, maximum or minimum of the actual imbalance prices for the first period and the imbalance price based on the supply reserve ratio information. Furthermore, the imbalance price forecasting unit 410 may calculate the error range of the imbalance price based, for example, on weather information and actual imbalance prices.

[0155] Furthermore, the imbalance price forecasting unit 410 may calculate an imbalance price forecast value based on the power supply reserve ratio. The imbalance price forecasting unit 410 may, for example, calculate an imbalance price forecast value for each demand time unit (for example, every 30 minutes) based on the predicted power supply reserve ratio for each area and each demand time unit for the day. The imbalance price forecasting unit 410 is an example of an imbalance price acquisition unit.

[0156] It is assumed that the imbalance price when a power shortage occurs will be different from the imbalance price when a power surplus occurs. Therefore, the imbalance price forecasting unit 410 may forecast a first imbalance price forecast value, which is a forecast value of the imbalance price when a power shortage occurs, and a second imbalance price forecast value, which is a forecast value of the imbalance price when a power surplus occurs. The imbalance price forecasting unit 410 may forecast the first imbalance price forecast value based on the first actual imbalance price, which is the actual imbalance price when a power shortage occurs, and forecast the second imbalance price forecast value based on the second actual imbalance price, which is the actual imbalance price when a power surplus occurs. Furthermore, the imbalance unit price forecasting unit 410 may forecast the first imbalance forecast unit price for the second period based on the supply reserve ratio information for the second period and a table that associates the supply reserve ratio information with the first imbalance price, and may forecast the second imbalance forecast unit price for the second period based on the supply reserve ratio information and a table that associates the supply reserve ratio information with the second imbalance price.

[0157] The imbalance loss estimation unit 420 estimates the amount of loss (estimated imbalance loss) in demand time units when an imbalance occurs because the adjusted power amount is not traded with the wholesale power trading market, based on the adjusted power amount and the predicted imbalance unit price. The imbalance loss estimation unit 420 estimates the estimated imbalance loss when the adjusted power amount is not adjusted from the wholesale power trading market. Specifically, when a shortage of adjusted power amount is predicted, the imbalance loss estimation unit 420 estimates the amount of loss that would occur if the adjusted power amount is not procured from the wholesale power trading market, and when a surplus of adjusted power amount is predicted, it estimates the amount of loss that would occur if the adjusted power amount is not sold to the wholesale power trading market. The imbalance loss estimation unit 420 is an example of an imbalance loss acquisition unit.

[0158] The imbalance loss estimation unit 420 estimates the imbalance loss by, for example, calculating the imbalance loss based on the following (Equation 5). The imbalance loss estimation unit 420 calculates the imbalance loss for each demand time unit using (Equation 5).

[0159] Estimated imbalance loss = Adjusted power amount × Predicted imbalance unit price ... (Equation 5)

[0160] The imbalance loss estimation unit 420 calculates the imbalance loss, for example, when a shortage of adjusted power is predicted, by using the first imbalance price prediction value in the imbalance prediction unit price of (Equation 5), and when a surplus of adjusted power is predicted, by using the second imbalance price prediction value in the imbalance prediction unit price of (Equation 5).

[0161] In this embodiment, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 creates an adjustment plan based on the spot market adjustment estimated profit / loss, the prior market adjustment estimated profit / loss, and the imbalance estimated loss.

[0162] [4-2. Operation of the Power Adjustment Planning Device] Next, the operation (power adjustment plan creation method) of the power adjustment plan creation device 100c configured as described above will be explained with reference to Figure 9. Figure 9 is a flowchart showing the operation of the power adjustment plan creation device 100c according to this embodiment. The flowchart shown in Figure 9 includes steps S401 to S403 in addition to the flowchart shown in Figure 2. Note that, as in Figure 2, Figure 9 shows an example of operation when only the spot market procurement estimated profit and loss is estimated from the spot market adjustment estimated profit and loss, and only the time-before market procurement estimated profit and loss is estimated from the time-before market adjustment estimated profit and loss.

[0163] As shown in Figure 9, the information acquisition unit acquires the power supply reserve ratio and the actual imbalance price (S401). The timing of acquiring the power supply reserve ratio (supply reserve ratio information) and the actual imbalance price is not particularly limited and can be acquired at different times, for example. In step S401, it is sufficient to acquire at least one of the power supply reserve ratio and the actual imbalance price. The information acquisition unit outputs the acquired power supply reserve ratio and the actual imbalance price to the imbalance unit price forecasting unit 410. In step S401, the information acquisition unit only needs to acquire the power supply reserve ratio.

[0164] Next, the imbalance unit price forecasting unit 410 forecasts the imbalance forecast unit price for each demand time unit in the second period based on the power supply reserve rate, at least one of the actual imbalance price, and weather information (S402). The imbalance unit price forecasting unit 410 outputs the forecasted imbalance unit price to the imbalance loss estimation unit 420.

[0165] Next, the imbalance loss estimation unit 420 estimates the imbalance loss for each demand time unit in the second period based on the adjusted power amount and the predicted imbalance unit price (S403). The imbalance loss estimation unit 420 estimates the imbalance loss for each demand time unit by, for example, performing the calculation (Equation 5) for each demand time unit. The imbalance loss estimation unit 420 outputs the estimated imbalance loss to the adjustment plan creation unit 170.

[0166] Next, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 creates an adjustment plan (S107). In this embodiment, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 compares the spot market adjustment estimated profit / loss, the pre-hour market adjustment estimated profit / loss, and the imbalance estimated loss, and creates an adjustment plan based on the comparison result. For example, if the wholesale electricity trading market experiences excessive demand and the market price rises above the electricity selling price, it may be possible to reduce the retail electricity business operator's losses by creating an imbalance. If both the spot market adjustment estimated profit / loss and the pre-hour market adjustment estimated profit / loss are losses, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 compares the smaller of the two losses with the imbalance estimated loss, and then creates an adjustment plan that includes actions corresponding to the smaller loss. In this way, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 may create an adjustment plan that takes actions to minimize the amount of loss if a loss occurs during a certain period of time. The actions here include trading the adjustment amount in the spot market, trading it in the pre-hour market, or creating an imbalance (paying an imbalance fee) without adjusting the adjustment amount.

[0167] Steps S401 to S403 may be executed if the spot market adjusted estimated profit / loss estimated in step S104 and the time-priority market adjusted estimated profit / loss estimated in step S106 are losses or are below a predetermined profit. For example, the adjustment plan creation unit 170 may determine whether or not to execute the processes in steps S401 to S403 based on the spot market adjusted estimated profit / loss estimated in step S104 and the time-priority market adjusted estimated profit / loss estimated in step S106, and execute steps S401 to S403 only if it determines that it should be executed.

[0168] [4-3. Effects, etc.] As described above, the power adjustment plan creation device 100c according to this embodiment further includes an imbalance loss estimation unit 420 (an example of an imbalance loss acquisition unit) that acquires an estimated imbalance loss in demand time units, which indicates the loss when an imbalance occurs without trading the amount of adjustment power with the wholesale power trading market. The adjustment plan creation unit 170 then creates an adjustment plan based on the comparison results obtained by comparing the spot market adjustment estimated profit and loss, the time-ahead market adjustment estimated profit and loss, and the imbalance estimated loss.

[0169] As a result, the power adjustment planning device 100c can, for example, determine the power adjustment destination to minimize losses by comparing the estimated spot market adjustment profit / loss, the estimated pre-hour market adjustment profit / loss, and the estimated imbalance loss, in cases where there are time periods in which both the estimated spot market adjustment profit / loss and the estimated pre-hour market adjustment profit / loss are losses. In other words, the power adjustment planning device 100c can reduce the amount of loss when losses occur. Therefore, the power adjustment planning device 100c can create a more economical power adjustment plan.

[0170] Furthermore, the power adjustment plan creation device 100c further includes an information acquisition unit that acquires supply reserve rate information for the second period, and an imbalance unit price prediction unit 410 that predicts the imbalance prediction unit price for the second period based on the supply reserve rate information. The imbalance loss estimation unit 420 then estimates the imbalance estimate loss in demand time units based on the imbalance prediction unit price and the amount of adjusted power.

[0171] As a result, the power adjustment planning device 100c can estimate the predicted imbalance unit price and, based on that predicted imbalance unit price, estimate the imbalance loss. In other words, the power adjustment planning device 100c can estimate the imbalance loss when an imbalance occurs without trading the amount of adjusted electricity with the electricity trading market.

[0172] Furthermore, the imbalance unit price prediction unit 410 predicts the imbalance unit price based on weather information.

[0173] As a result, the imbalance forecast unit price will be calculated using weather information, which is expected to improve the accuracy of the imbalance forecast unit price prediction.

[0174] (Other embodiments) Although power adjustment planning devices and the like according to one or more embodiments have been described above based on each embodiment, the present invention is not limited to these embodiments. As long as it does not depart from the spirit of the present invention, various modifications that a person skilled in the art can conceive of may be applied to these embodiments, and forms constructed by combining components from different embodiments may also be included in the present invention.

[0175] For example, in the embodiments described above, an example was described in which the power adjustment plan presentation system has one presentation unit, but the number of presentation units is not particularly limited and may be multiple.

[0176] Furthermore, in the embodiments described above, each acquisition unit was described as being composed of a keyboard, buttons, touch panel, etc., and receiving operations from an administrator or the like as input. However, it may also be composed of a sound collection device such as a microphone, and receiving the voice of an administrator or the like as input.

[0177] Furthermore, while the above embodiments describe an example where the adjusted power amount acquisition unit acquires the adjusted power amount by predicting it, the unit is not limited to this, and the adjusted power amount may also be acquired by input from an administrator or the like. In this case, the adjusted power amount acquisition unit may include a keyboard, buttons, a touch panel, etc., or it may include a sound collection device that accepts voice input, etc.

[0178] Furthermore, while the above embodiments describe an example in which the spot market adjustment profit / loss acquisition unit acquires spot market adjustment estimated profit / loss by predicting spot market adjustment estimated profit / loss, the unit is not limited to this example, and spot market adjustment estimated profit / loss may also be acquired by input from an administrator or the like. In this case, the spot market adjustment profit / loss acquisition unit may be configured to include a keyboard, buttons, a touch panel, etc., or it may be configured to include a sound collection device that accepts voice input, etc.

[0179] Furthermore, while the above embodiments describe an example in which the pre-time market adjustment profit / loss acquisition unit acquires the estimated pre-time market adjustment profit / loss by estimating the estimated pre-time market adjustment profit / loss, the unit is not limited to this example, and the estimated pre-time market adjustment profit / loss may also be acquired by input from an administrator or the like. In this case, the pre-time market adjustment profit / loss acquisition unit may be configured to include a keyboard, buttons, a touch panel, etc., or it may be configured to include a sound collection device that accepts voice input, etc.

[0180] Furthermore, while the example of the imbalance price acquisition unit in Embodiment 4 described above involves acquiring the predicted imbalance price by predicting the predicted imbalance price, the unit is not limited to this, and the predicted imbalance price may also be acquired by input from an administrator or the like. In this case, the imbalance price acquisition unit may be configured to include a keyboard, buttons, a touch panel, etc., or it may be configured to include a sound collection device that accepts voice input, etc.

[0181] Furthermore, while the example described in Embodiment 4 above describes an example in which the imbalance loss acquisition unit acquires the imbalance estimated loss by estimating the imbalance estimated loss, it is not limited to this, and the imbalance estimated loss may also be acquired by input from an administrator or the like. In this case, the imbalance loss acquisition unit may be configured to include a keyboard, buttons, a touch panel, etc., or it may be configured to include a sound collection device that accepts voice input, etc.

[0182] Furthermore, while the above embodiments describe an example in which the adjustment plan creation unit determines whether to trade the adjustment amount in the spot market or the advance market for each demand time unit, it is not limited to each demand time unit; for example, the destination for the adjustment amount may be determined at any time interval.

[0183] Furthermore, although the above embodiments describe examples where the power adjustment plan creation device and the presentation unit are separate entities, they may be integrated. In other words, the power adjustment plan creation device may include a presentation unit as a user interface. In this case, the presentation unit of the power adjustment plan creation device has the same functions as the presentation unit of the power adjustment plan presentation system described in the above embodiments. For example, the presentation unit of the power adjustment plan creation device has the function of presenting the adjustment plan shown in Figure 3. Also, the presentation unit and the reception unit of the power adjustment plan creation device may be implemented as an integrated user interface.

[0184] Furthermore, at least one of the adjustment power quantity forecasting unit, spot market unit price forecasting unit, time-ahead market unit price forecasting unit, and imbalance unit price forecasting unit in each of the above embodiments may, for example, perform predictions using a machine learning model. The adjustment power quantity forecasting unit may, for example, predict future power demand using a machine learning model that has been trained in advance using the amount of power sold over a certain past period, and then predict the adjustment power quantity from the difference between the power demand and the planned value. Also, for example, the spot market unit price forecasting unit may predict future spot market transaction prices using a machine learning model that has been trained in advance using actual spot market transaction prices over a certain past period and weather information. Also, for example, the time-ahead market unit price forecasting unit may predict future time-ahead market transaction prices using a machine learning model that has been trained in advance using actual time-ahead market transaction prices over a certain past period and weather information. Also, for example, the imbalance unit price forecasting unit may predict future imbalance unit prices using a machine learning model that has been trained in advance using imbalance unit prices at the time of imbalance occurrence over a certain past period, power supply reserve rate, and weather information.

[0185] Furthermore, the consumers in each of the above embodiments may be, for example, one large consumer with an extremely large power load (e.g., a factory), multiple consumers with small power loads (e.g., a typical house), or a combination thereof.

[0186] Furthermore, while the above embodiments describe an example in which the power adjustment plan creation device is calculated using (Equation 1) to (Equation 5), (Equation 1) to (Equation 5) are illustrative examples, and the system is not limited to using these calculation formulas.

[0187] Furthermore, in each of the above embodiments, each component may be implemented by being composed of dedicated hardware or by executing a software program suitable for each component. Each component may also be implemented by a program execution unit such as a CPU or processor reading and executing a software program recorded on a recording medium such as a hard disk or semiconductor memory.

[0188] Furthermore, the order in which each step in the flowchart is executed is illustrative for the purpose of specifically illustrating the present invention, and may be in a different order. Also, some of the above steps may be executed simultaneously (in parallel) with other steps, and some of the above steps may not be executed.

[0189] Furthermore, the division of functional blocks in the functional block diagram is just one example; multiple functional blocks can be implemented as a single functional block, a single functional block can be divided into multiple parts, or some functions can be moved to other functional blocks. In addition, the functions of multiple functional blocks with similar functions can be processed in parallel or time-sharing by a single piece of hardware or software.

[0190] Furthermore, the power adjustment plan creation device according to each of the above embodiments may be implemented as a single device or as a plurality of devices. When the power adjustment plan creation device is implemented as a plurality of devices, the components of the power adjustment plan creation device may be distributed among the plurality of devices in any manner. When the power adjustment plan creation device is implemented as a plurality of devices, the method of communication between the plurality of devices is not particularly limited and may be wireless communication or wired communication. In addition, wireless communication and wired communication may be combined between the devices.

[0191] Furthermore, these general or specific embodiments may be implemented in a system, method, integrated circuit, computer program, or a non-temporary recording medium such as a computer-readable CD-ROM, or in any combination of a system, method, integrated circuit, computer program, or recording medium. The program may be pre-stored on the recording medium or supplied to the recording medium via a wide-area communication network, including the Internet.

[0192] Furthermore, each component described in the above embodiments may be implemented as software, or typically as an integrated circuit (LSI). These may be individually integrated onto a single chip, or some or all of them may be integrated onto a single chip. Here, we refer to them as LSIs, but depending on the degree of integration, they may also be called ICs, system LSIs, super LSIs, or ultra LSIs. Moreover, the method of integrated circuit implementation is not limited to LSIs; it may also be implemented using dedicated circuits (general-purpose circuits that execute dedicated programs) or general-purpose processors. After LSI manufacturing, a programmable FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array) or a reconfigurable processor that allows for the reconfiguration of the connections or settings of circuit cells inside the LSI may be used. Furthermore, if an integrated circuit implementation technology that replaces LSIs emerges due to advances in semiconductor technology or other derived technologies, it is naturally possible to integrate the components using that technology.

[0193] A system LSI is a highly functional LSI manufactured by integrating multiple processing units onto a single chip. Specifically, it is a computer system consisting of a microprocessor, ROM (Read Only Memory), RAM (Random Access Memory), and other components. The ROM stores the computer program. The system LSI achieves its function by operating according to the computer program, with the microprocessor performing its operations.

[0194] Furthermore, one aspect of the present invention may be a computer program that causes a computer to perform each characteristic step included in the power adjustment plan creation method shown in any of Figures 2, 5, 7, and 9.

[0195] Furthermore, for example, the program may be a program to be executed by a computer. In another aspect of the present invention, such a program may be recorded on a computer-readable non-temporary recording medium. For example, such a program may be recorded on a recording medium and distributed or made available. For example, by installing the distributed program on a device having another processor and having that processor execute the program, it becomes possible to have that device perform the above-mentioned processes. [Explanation of symbols]

[0196] 100, 100a, 100b, 100c Power adjustment plan creation device 110a Sales Power Volume Acquisition Unit 110b Weather Information Acquisition Unit 110c Market transaction price acquisition section 110d Supply Reserve Rate Acquisition Unit (Information Acquisition Unit) 110e Imbalance Price Acquisition Unit (Information Acquisition Unit) 120 Adjusted Power Quantity Prediction Unit (Adjusted Power Quantity Acquisition Unit) 130 Spot Market Price Forecast Department (Previous Day Market Price Forecast Department) 140-hour prior market price forecast section (Today's market price forecast section) 150 Spot Market Adjusted Profit / Loss Estimation Section (Previous Day Market Adjusted Profit / Loss Acquisition Section) 160 Hourly Market Adjusted Profit and Loss Estimation Department (Same Day Market Adjusted Profit and Loss Acquisition Department) 170 Coordination Planning Department 180 Output section 191 Customer Master Table (Customer Information) 210 Reception Department 310 Market Bidding Department 410 Imbalance Unit Price Forecasting Section 420 Imbalance Loss Estimation Unit (Imbalance Loss Acquisition Unit)

Claims

1. A power adjustment planning device comprising a processor and memory for creating a power adjustment plan when a power retailer supplies power to a consumer, An adjustment power acquisition unit that acquires an adjustment power amount indicating the amount of electricity that needs to be adjusted with the electricity trading market, including the previous day market and the current day market, A previous day market adjusted profit / loss acquisition unit that acquires the previous day market adjusted estimated profit / loss, which shows the profit or loss when the adjusted amount of electricity is traded in the previous day market, on a demand time-limited basis, A unit for acquiring daily market adjustment profit and loss, which acquires the daily market adjustment estimated profit and loss, which shows the profit and loss when the adjusted amount of electricity is traded in the daily market, for each demand time period, An adjustment plan creation unit compares the estimated profit / loss of the previous day's market adjustment and the estimated profit / loss of the current day's market adjustment for each of the demand time units, and creates an adjustment plan to trade the amount of adjusted electricity in the market with the larger profit. The system includes an output unit that outputs the adjustment plan to a display device, thereby causing the display device to display the adjustment plan, The adjustment power acquisition unit, the previous day market adjustment profit / loss acquisition unit, the current day market adjustment profit / loss acquisition unit, the adjustment plan creation unit, and the output unit are realized by the processor executing a program stored in the memory. The system further includes an imbalance loss acquisition unit that acquires an estimated imbalance loss in the demand time unit, which indicates the loss that would occur if the adjusted amount of electricity were not traded with the aforementioned electricity trading market and an imbalance were to occur. The adjustment plan creation unit compares the estimated profit / loss based on the previous day's market adjustment and the estimated profit / loss based on the current day's market adjustment with the estimated imbalance loss, and creates the adjustment plan so as to reduce the loss. The imbalance loss acquisition unit is realized by the processor executing a program stored in the memory. Power adjustment plan creation device.

2. A sales electricity volume acquisition unit that acquires the sales electricity volume showing the actual sales performance of electricity to the aforementioned customer during the first period in the past, A market transaction price acquisition unit that acquires actual transaction prices showing the actual electricity market prices for the first period, A storage unit that stores the planned amount of electricity that can be supplied to the customer and the unit price for selling electricity to the customer, A previous day market price forecasting unit predicts the previous day market transaction forecasting unit price to be executed in the previous day market based on the first price included in the transaction actual price, in the demand time unit, The system further includes a daily market price forecasting unit that forecasts the daily market transaction forecast unit price to be executed in the daily market for the second period covered by future power supply, based on the second price included in the aforementioned transaction history price, in the aforementioned demand time unit, The adjustment power acquisition unit predicts the adjustment power amount for the second period based on the sales power amount and the planned value, The aforementioned day-ahead market adjustment profit / loss acquisition unit estimates the estimated day-ahead market adjustment profit / loss in the demand time unit based on the electricity selling price, the predicted day-ahead market transaction price, and the adjusted electricity amount. The aforementioned daily market adjustment profit / loss acquisition unit estimates the daily market adjustment estimated profit / loss in the demand time unit based on the electricity sales price, the daily market transaction forecast price, and the adjusted electricity amount. The aforementioned electricity sales volume acquisition unit, market transaction price acquisition unit, previous day market price forecasting unit, and current day market price forecasting unit are realized by the processor executing a program stored in the memory. The power adjustment plan creation device according to claim 1.

3. An information acquisition unit that acquires supply reserve rate information for the second period, The system further includes an imbalance unit price prediction unit that predicts the imbalance unit price in the second period based on the supply reserve rate information, The imbalance loss acquisition unit estimates the imbalance loss in the demand time unit based on the predicted imbalance unit price and the adjusted power amount, The information acquisition unit and the imbalance unit price prediction unit are realized by the processor executing a program stored in the memory. The power adjustment plan creation device according to claim 2.

4. The system further includes a weather information acquisition unit that acquires weather information for the first period and the second period, The storage unit further stores customer information, which includes at least one of the location information and business day information of the customer's facility. The adjustment power acquisition unit further predicts the adjustment power amount based on at least one of the weather information and the customer information, The weather information acquisition unit is realized by the processor executing a program stored in the memory. The power adjustment plan creation device according to claim 3.

5. The previous day market price forecasting unit further forecasts the previous day market transaction forecast unit price based on the weather information, The daily market price forecasting unit further forecasts the daily market transaction price based on the weather information. The power adjustment plan creation device according to claim 4.

6. The imbalance unit price forecasting unit further forecasts the imbalance unit price based on the weather information. The power adjustment plan creation device according to claim 4 or 5.

7. After the output unit outputs the adjustment plan, the system further includes a receiving unit that receives at least one input of the adjustment amount, the previous day's market trading forecast unit price, the current day's market trading forecast unit price, and the imbalance forecast unit price. The adjustment plan creation unit updates the adjustment plan based on the at least one received by the reception unit. The receiving unit is realized when the processor executes a program stored in the memory. A power adjustment plan creation device according to any one of claims 3 to 6.

8. The adjustment plan creation unit compares the estimated profit / loss for the previous day's market adjustment and the estimated profit / loss for the current day's market adjustment for each of the demand time units, and creates the adjustment plan which includes the action that maximizes the profit / loss of the business operator. A power adjustment plan creation device according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

9. A market bidding unit that submits the adjusted electricity amount to the aforementioned electricity trading market, The system further comprises a bidding information acquisition unit that acquires bidding information related to bids made by the market bidding unit to the aforementioned electricity trading market, The market bidding unit and the bidding information acquisition unit are realized by the processor executing a program stored in the memory. A power adjustment plan creation device according to any one of claims 1 to 8.

10. A method for creating a power adjustment plan, which is performed by a power adjustment plan creation device that creates a power adjustment plan when a power retailer supplies power to consumers, The first acquisition step involves obtaining an adjusted amount of electricity, which indicates the amount of electricity that needs to be adjusted with the electricity trading market, including the previous day market and the current day market. A second acquisition step involves acquiring the estimated profit / loss adjusted for the previous day market, which shows the profit / loss when the adjusted amount of electricity is traded in the previous day market, in units of demand time, A third acquisition step involves acquiring the estimated profit or loss for the day's market adjustment, which shows the profit or loss when the adjusted amount of electricity is traded in the market on that day, for each demand time unit. A creation step involves comparing the estimated profit / loss of the previous day's market adjustment and the estimated profit / loss of the current day's market adjustment for each of the demand time units, and creating an adjustment plan to trade the amount of adjusted electricity in the market with the larger profit, The output step includes outputting the adjustment plan to a display device, thereby causing the display device to display the adjustment plan, Furthermore, an estimated imbalance loss is obtained in the demand time unit, which represents the loss that would occur if the adjusted amount of electricity were not traded with the electricity trading market and an imbalance were to occur. In the creation step, the estimated profit / loss for market adjustments from the previous day and the estimated profit / loss for market adjustments on the current day are compared with the estimated imbalance loss, and the adjustment plan is created so as to minimize the loss. The acquisition of the imbalance estimate loss in the demand time unit is achieved by the processor of the power adjustment planning device executing a program stored in the memory of the power adjustment planning device. Method for creating a power adjustment plan.

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