Handling determination device, handling determination method, and program

Abstract

The purpose of the present disclosure is to appropriately execute automatic handling for failure recovery with respect to a device to be handled even when there are a small number of or no past failure histories that can be referred to.　For this purpose, the present disclosure provides a handling determination device that determines whether or not to execute a prescribed handling method plan with respect to a prescribed device to be handled in which a failure has occurred. The handling determination device comprises: a specification unit that specifies a prescribed device type of the prescribed device to be handled by using device type management information indicating the device type of each device to be handled; and a determination unit that determines whether or not to execute the prescribed handling method plan with respect to the prescribed device to be handled, by using handling history management information including the device type of a device to be handled, a handling method, and a success / failure result for the handling method, and on the basis of a prescribed success / failure result corresponding to the prescribed device type and the prescribed handling method plan.

Description

Countermeasure determination device, countermeasure determination method, and program

[0001] The present disclosure relates to automation technology for network operation management.

[0002] In network operation management, there is a demand for reducing manual work while maintaining communication quality, even when multiple or time-limited (limited-time) networks are operated simultaneously. For example, when taking measures to recover from a failure in a target device on a network, in order to reduce manual work, it is necessary to automate the determination of the effectiveness of the measures, the impact if successful, the likelihood of success, the impact if unsuccessful, etc.

[0003] For example, a method has been proposed for determining the likelihood of success by narrowing down the response methods using history information indicating the success or failure of failure recovery and the success rate of past measures (Non-Patent Document 1).

[0004] Jun Nakajima et al., "A Study on Applying Automation Technology to IT System Operations Management," IEICE Technical Report 114(523), pp. 73-78, Mar. 2015.

[0005] However, when there is little reference history information, the conventional method cannot calculate an appropriate (highly accurate) success probability value for the countermeasure. Furthermore, when there is no reference history information, the conventional method cannot calculate the success probability value. Therefore, when determining whether automatic countermeasures for fault recovery are possible for the target device on the network, even if the success probability value of the conventional method is taken into account, it is difficult to perform appropriate automatic countermeasures.

[0006] In order to address the above-mentioned circumstances, the present disclosure aims to be able to appropriately perform automatic measures for fault recovery on a target device even when the amount of fault history information available for reference is small.

[0007] In order to achieve the above-mentioned object, the present disclosure provides a countermeasure judgment device that judges whether or not to execute a predetermined countermeasure method plan for a predetermined countermeasure target device in which a fault has occurred, the countermeasure judgment device having: an identification unit that identifies the predetermined device type of the predetermined countermeasure target device using device type management information that indicates the device type for each countermeasure target device; and a judgment unit that uses countermeasure history management information that includes the device type of the countermeasure target device, the countermeasure method, and the success / failure result of the countermeasure method, to judge whether or not to execute a predetermined countermeasure method plan for the predetermined countermeasure target device based on the predetermined device type and the predetermined success / failure result corresponding to the predetermined countermeasure method plan.

[0008] As described above, the present disclosure has the effect of enabling appropriate automatic measures to recover from a fault to be taken on a target device even when the amount of fault history information available for reference is small.

[0009] 1 is an overall configuration diagram of a communication system according to an embodiment; FIG. 2 is an electrical hardware configuration diagram of each device in the communication system; FIG. 3 is a diagram showing response history management information managed in a response history management DB possessed by a response history management device; FIG. 4 is a functional configuration diagram of a response determination device; FIG. 5 is a diagram showing device type management information managed in a device type management DB; FIG. 6 is a sequence diagram showing processing for identifying a device type; FIG. 7 is a diagram showing transitions in response history information; FIG. 8 is a sequence diagram showing processing for executing a proposed response method; FIG. 9 is a diagram showing response history information read out by a search; FIG. 10 is a flowchart showing execution determination processing for a proposed response method; FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an overview of an example of execution determination processing for a proposed response method.

[0010] Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. Note that the present invention is not limited to the embodiments shown below, and various modifications are possible within the scope of the technical concept of the present invention. Since the drawings are intended to conceptually explain the present invention, dimensions, ratios, or numbers may be exaggerated or simplified as necessary to facilitate understanding.

[0011] [System Configuration of the Embodiment] First, the overall configuration of a communication system according to the embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 1. Fig. 1 is a diagram showing the overall configuration of a communication system according to the embodiment.

[0012] 1, a communication system 10 of this embodiment is constructed by a target device 20, an operation-related information management device 30, a monitoring device 40, a countermeasure determination device 50, a countermeasure history management device 70, and an automatic countermeasure device 80. Among the devices that construct the communication system 10, there are at least a plurality of target devices 20.

[0013] The target device 20, operation-related information management device 30, monitoring device 40, countermeasure determination device 50, countermeasure history management device 70, and automatic countermeasure device 80 are configured by one or more computers. The target device 20, operation-related information management device 30, monitoring device 40, countermeasure determination device 50, countermeasure history management device 70, and automatic countermeasure device 80 are communicably connected via a communication network 100 such as the Internet. The connection method may be wired or wireless. Note that when the countermeasure determination device 50 is configured by multiple computers, it may be referred to as a "countermeasure determination device" or a "countermeasure determination system."

[0014] [Hardware Configuration] Next, the electrical hardware configuration of the handling determination device 50 will be described with reference to Fig. 2. Fig. 2 is a diagram showing the electrical hardware configuration of each device in the communication system.

[0015] For example, as shown in FIG. 2, the handling judgment device 50 includes a drive device 1000, an auxiliary storage device 1002, a memory device 1003, a processor 1004, an interface device 1005, a display device 1006, an input device 1007, an output device 1008, etc., which are interconnected by a bus 1010.

[0016] The program that realizes the processing on the computer is stored on a recording medium 1001 such as a CD-ROM or a memory card. When the recording medium 1001 storing the program is set in the drive device 1000, the program is installed from the recording medium 1001 to the auxiliary storage device 1002 via the drive device 1000. However, the program does not necessarily have to be installed from the recording medium 1001, but may be downloaded from another computer via a communication network such as the Internet. The auxiliary storage device 1002 stores the installed program as well as necessary files, data, etc.

[0017] When an instruction to start a program is received, the memory device 1003 reads the program from the auxiliary storage device 1002 and stores it. The processor 1004 realizes functions related to the device in accordance with the program stored in the memory device 1003. The processor 1004 may include not only a CPU (Central Processing Unit) but also a GPU (Graphics Processing Unit).

[0018] The interface device 1005 is used as an interface for connecting to a communication network, etc. The display device 1006 displays a GUI (Graphical User Interface) etc. according to a program. The input device 1007 is composed of a keyboard, mouse, buttons, a touch panel, etc., and is used to input various operation instructions. The output device 1008 outputs the calculation results to an external device (external display device, printer, etc.).

[0019] The target device 20, the operation-related information management device 30, the monitoring device 40, the response history management device 70, and the automatic response device 80 have the same configuration as the response judgment device 50, so their explanations will be omitted.

[0020] [Description of Each Device] Next, each device shown in FIG. 1 will be described.

[0021] <Device to be addressed> The device to be addressed 20 is a communication device capable of transmitting data on the communication network 100, and is, for example, a communication device (network device) such as a web server, an APL (application) server, a DB (database) server, a transaction server, a switch, or a router (for example, an L3 switch).

[0022] <Operation-Related Information Management Device> The operation-related information management device 30 periodically queries each target device 20 for operation-related information, which is information related to operation, through polling processing, and receives and manages the current (latest) operation-related information from each target device 20. The operation-related information includes information (parameters) on multiple items related to operation. Each item is, for example, the continuous startup time (s) of the target device 20, the total operation time (s) of each target device 20, and the processing load of each target device 20 at a given time (e.g., the load average for the last 15 minutes). The total operation time indicates the total time during startup. Each item may be at least two of these three items, or may be other than these three items, or may be four or more items. In some cases, there may be only one item. Note that, hereinafter, "processing load" will be simply referred to as "load."

[0023] In this case, the operation-related information includes the name of the target device for identifying the sender. The target device name is an example of identification information for identifying the target device.

[0024] To further explain the operation-related information, the operation-related information is used to determine whether or not to execute a predetermined countermeasure against the target device 20. The reason for this is that when the "continuous startup time," "total operation time," and "load" are long, the hardware (especially mechanical components) deteriorates and the possibility of physical failure increases, which may increase the possibility of a failure occurring when executing a countermeasure such as rebooting. In particular, when the "continuous startup time" is long, even if the settings of the target device 20 have been updated, the settings may not be reflected, resulting in inappropriate settings. Since the updates are likely to be reflected only at the next reboot, the possibility of the target device being unable to start up normally increases. In the operation of server devices, it has been found that information on these three items is closely related to the success or failure of a countermeasure.

[0025] <Monitoring device> The monitoring device 40 remotely monitors failures that occur in each of the target devices 20, and when it receives alarm information in response to the occurrence of a failure from a specific target device 20, it uses an existing countermeasure proposal deriving engine to derive a countermeasure proposal (proposed countermeasure) according to the content of the failure. The alarm information includes the content of the failure and the name of the target device for identifying the sender.

[0026] Furthermore, the monitoring device 40 transmits information indicating the proposed countermeasure method derived by itself (the monitoring device 40) to the countermeasure determination device 50. This information includes the name of the countermeasure target device that is the sender of the alarm information.

[0027] <Countermeasure Determination Device> The countermeasure determination device 50 is a device that determines whether or not to execute a predetermined countermeasure plan for a predetermined countermeasure target device 20 in which a failure has occurred. The countermeasure determination device 50 determines whether or not to execute a countermeasure plan received from the monitoring device 40, based on countermeasure history information indicating past countermeasure histories received from the countermeasure history management device 70. The processing of the countermeasure determination device 50 will be described in detail later. Furthermore, when the countermeasure determination device 50 receives information indicating the countermeasure results for the predetermined countermeasure from the automatic countermeasure device 80, it transmits countermeasure history information including the countermeasure results to the countermeasure history management device 70, and has the countermeasure history management device 70 manage the information.

[0028] <Response History Management Device> The response history management device 70 is a DB server or the like that manages past response history information.

[0029] (Response History Information) Here, the response history information managed by the response history management device 70 will be described with reference to Fig. 3. Fig. 3 is a diagram showing response history management information managed in a response history management DB included in the response history management device.

[0030] As shown in FIG. 3 , the response history management information associates and manages the following information: response history number, implementation date and time of the response method, the response method, the name of the response target device, the device type of the response target device, operation-related information of the response target device, and success / failure results. This success / failure result indicates whether a failure was successfully recovered when a response method was actually automatically executed by the automatic response device 80 in the past. The operation-related information is information about the operation of the response target device when a response method was executed in the past (immediately before execution), and includes, as described above, for example, the continuous startup time (s) of the response target device 20, the total operation time (s) of the response target device 20, and the load on the response target device 20 at a specified time (e.g., the load average for the last 15 minutes). The response history management DB is an example of a response history management unit.

[0031] The response history information managed by the response history management device 70 is response history information related to response target devices within the same predetermined network (for example, the same LAN (Local Area Network)) as the response target device, but may also include response history information related to response target devices within other networks.

[0032] <Automatic Countermeasure Device> When the automatic countermeasure device 80 receives countermeasure method information indicating a predetermined countermeasure method from the countermeasure judgment device 50, it automatically executes the predetermined countermeasure method on the countermeasure target device 20 indicated by the countermeasure target device name included in this countermeasure method information. The automatic countermeasure device 80 also receives information indicating the countermeasure result for the countermeasure method from the countermeasure target device 20. Because this information includes the countermeasure target device name, the automatic countermeasure device 80 can identify the sender. Furthermore, the automatic countermeasure device 80 transmits (transfers) information indicating the countermeasure result to the countermeasure judgment device 50. Note that this information also includes the countermeasure target device name.

[0033] [Functional Configuration of the Measure Determination Device] Next, the functional configuration of the measure determination device 50 will be described with reference to Fig. 4. Fig. 4 is a functional configuration diagram of the measure determination device.

[0034] 4, the countermeasure determination device 50 includes a communication unit 51, an identification unit 52, a calculation unit 53, and a determination unit 54. Each of these units has a function realized by an instruction from the processor 1004 in FIG. 2 based on a program.

[0035] The handling determination device 50 also has a storage unit 60 constructed in the auxiliary storage device 1002 or the memory device 1003. The storage unit 60 has a device type management DB 61 as shown in FIG.

[0036] <Device Type Management DB> The device type management DB 61 will now be described with reference to Fig. 5. Fig. 5 is a diagram showing device type management information managed in the device type management DB.

[0037] 5, the device type management information manages the names of the handled devices and the device types of the handled devices in association with each other. Note that the device type management DB may be managed not by the handling determination device 50 but by an external device such as the handling history management device 70.

[0038] <Functional Units> Next, the functional units of the response determination device 50 will be described.

[0039] (Communication Unit) The communication unit 51 transmits and receives data (information) to and from the monitoring device 40 , the response history management device 70 , and the automatic response device 80 via the communication network 100 .

[0040] (Identification Unit) The identification unit 52 searches the device type management DB 61 using the name of the target device received from the monitoring device 40 as a search key, reads out the corresponding device type, and thereby identifies the device type based on the target device.

[0041] (Calculation unit) The calculation unit 53 uses each item and success / failure result included in the past operation-related information in the past response history information acquired by the communication unit 51 from the response history management device 70 to calculate, for each item included in the current (present) operation-related information of the current response target device 20 acquired by the communication unit 51 from the operation-related information management device 30, a success likelihood value when the response method proposal received from the monitoring device 40 is executed on the current response target device 20 in the state indicated by the current operation-related information. The calculation unit 53 then outputs this success likelihood value to the determination unit 54.

[0042] More specifically, the calculation unit 53 creates a success / failure histogram for each item based on each item and success / failure result included in the past operation-related information in the response history information acquired by the communication unit 51 through a search, and creates a success / failure distribution curve (see FIG. 11 ) from this histogram. The calculation unit 53 then plots, for each success / failure distribution curve, the value of each item included in the operation-related information of the response target device 20 received by the communication unit 51 from the operation-related information management device 30. Furthermore, the calculation unit 53 calculates the current likelihood of success value for each item when the response method proposal is executed on the current response target device 20, for example, by using (Equation 1).

[0043] Likelihood of success value = (number of successes / (number of successes + number of failures)) (Equation 1) (Determination unit) The determination unit 54 determines whether the likelihood of success value for each item of operation-related information calculated by the calculation unit 53 is equal to or greater than a threshold value set in advance for each item. Note that the threshold value may be the same for all items, may be different for all items, or the two threshold values ​​may be the same.

[0044] Furthermore, the determination unit 54 ultimately determines whether to execute the proposed countermeasure received from the monitoring device 40 for the current target device 20 based on the number of items of operation-related information that are equal to or greater than a threshold. Specifically, the determination unit 54 determines whether the number of items that are equal to or greater than a threshold is a predetermined number or greater, and if so, determines to execute the proposed countermeasure received from the monitoring device 40. This predetermined number indicates the number of all items, or indicates two or more when the total number of items is three. Alternatively, the determination unit 54 may determine whether the number of multiple items, including at least a predetermined item (e.g., the total operating time of the device), among all items, is equal to or greater than a predetermined number. If the number is equal to or greater than each predetermined number, the determination unit 54 determines to execute the proposed countermeasure, whereas if the number is less than each predetermined number, the determination unit 54 determines not to execute the proposed countermeasure.

[0045] Furthermore, the determination unit 54 outputs the result of this determination to the communication unit 51 .

[0046] [Processing of the embodiment] Next, the processing of the communication system 10 will be described with reference to FIGS.

[0047] <Device Type Identification> First, the process for identifying the device type will be described with reference to Fig. 6 and Fig. 7. Fig. 6 is a sequence diagram showing the process for identifying the device type. Fig. 7 is a diagram showing the transition of the response history information.

[0048] S11: The operation-related information management device 30 periodically (for example, every 10 minutes, every 30 minutes, or every 60 minutes) transmits a request for operation-related information to a predetermined target device 20.

[0049] S12: In response to step S11, the specified target device 20 transmits the current (present) operation-related information of its own device (target device 20) to the operation-related information management device 30. This operation-related information includes the target device name of the specified target device 20 that sent the information. As a result, the operation-related information management device 30 stores and manages the current (present) operation-related information of each target device 20 in its own device (operation-related information management device 30). Note that steps S11 and S12 are repeated periodically.

[0050] S13: When some kind of failure occurs in a predetermined target device 20, the target device 20 transmits alarm information including the details of the failure to the monitoring device 40. This alarm information includes the target device name of the target device 20 that is the sender of the alarm information.

[0051] S14: The monitoring device 40 uses an existing engine for deriving a countermeasure plan to derive a countermeasure plan according to the nature of the failure. The monitoring device 40 then transmits countermeasure plan information indicating the countermeasure plan to the countermeasure determination device 50. This information includes the name of the countermeasure target device that is the same as the name of the countermeasure target device included in the alarm information in step S13. As a result, the communication unit 51 of the countermeasure determination device 50 receives the information indicating the countermeasure plan, temporarily stores it in the memory unit 60 (see FIG. 7(a)), and outputs the name of the countermeasure target device to the identification unit 52.

[0052] S15: In the countermeasure judgment device 50, the identification unit 52 identifies the corresponding device type from the device type management DB 61 based on the name of the countermeasure device received in process S14, and temporarily stores it in the memory unit 60 following process S14 (see Figure 7(b)).

[0053] S16: Next, the communication unit 51 transmits a request for current (present) operation-related information to the operation-related information management device 30. This request includes the name of the target device received in step S14.

[0054] S17: In response to process S16, the operation-related information management device 30 transmits the current (present) operation-related information of the specified handled device 20 associated with the handled device name received in process S16 to the handling judgment device 50. This operation-related information includes the handled device name received in process S16. As a result, the communication unit 51 of the handling judgment device 50 receives the operation-related information and temporarily stores it in the storage unit 60 following process S15 (see FIG. 7(c)).

[0055] <Execution of the proposed countermeasure method> Next, a process for executing the proposed countermeasure method will be described with reference to Fig. 7 to Fig. 11. Fig. 8 is a sequence diagram showing a process for executing the proposed countermeasure method.

[0056] S21: The communication unit 51 of the countermeasure judgment device 50 functions as a search unit and searches the countermeasure history information in the countermeasure history management device 70 based on the countermeasure method that is the same as the countermeasure method proposal received in process S14 and the same device type as the device type identified in process S15.

[0057] S22: As shown in Fig. 9, the communication unit 11 of the response judgment device 50 reads out the corresponding past response history information from the response history management device 70. Fig. 9 is a diagram showing the response history information read out by the search.

[0058] S23: The countermeasure determination device 50 performs a process for determining whether to execute the proposed countermeasure. The process for determining whether to execute the proposed countermeasure will now be described in detail with reference to Figures 10 and 11. Figure 10 is a flowchart showing the process for determining whether to execute the proposed countermeasure.

[0059] S101: The calculation unit 53 of the countermeasure judgment device 50 uses each item and success / failure result included in the past operation-related information within the past countermeasure history information received by the communication unit 51 by process S22 to calculate, for each item included in the current (present) operation-related information received by the communication unit 51 by process S17, the expected success value of each item when the proposed countermeasure method received by the communication unit 51 by process S14 is executed on a specified countermeasure target device 20 in the state indicated by the current operation-related information.

[0060] S102: The determination unit 54 determines whether the success probability value of each item of the operation-related information calculated by the calculation unit 53 in step S101 is equal to or greater than a threshold value previously set for each item.

[0061] S103: The determination unit 54 determines whether the number of items that are equal to or greater than the threshold value as a result of the determination in step S102 is equal to or greater than a predetermined number. As described above, the determination unit 54 may determine whether the number of items, including a predetermined item (for example, total operating time), among all the items is equal to or greater than a predetermined number.

[0062] S104: In the process S103, if the number is equal to or greater than the predetermined number (S103; YES), the determination unit 54 determines that the proposed countermeasure should be executed.

[0063] S105: On the other hand, in the process S103, if the number is not equal to or greater than the predetermined number (less than the predetermined number) (S103; NO), the determination unit 54 determines not to execute the proposed countermeasure.

[0064] An example of the process of determining whether to execute a proposed countermeasure will now be described with reference to Fig. 11. Fig. 11 is a diagram showing an overview of an example of the process of determining whether to execute a proposed countermeasure.

[0065] 11 , the calculation unit 53 creates a success / failure histogram for each item based on the items and success / failure results included in the operation-related information in the response history information acquired by the communication unit 51 through a search, and then creates a success / failure distribution curve from this histogram. The calculation unit 53 then plots the values ​​of each item (current time, current load, etc.) included in the operation-related information for the specified response target device 20 received by the communication unit 51 from the operation-related information management device 30 for each success / failure distribution curve, and calculates the current likelihood of success for each item when the response method proposal is executed on the specified response target device 20, for example, using the above-mentioned (Equation 1) (S101). In FIG. 11 , the current likelihood of success for each item is 99%, 99%, and 30%, respectively, for the continuous startup time, total virtual time, and load.

[0066] In this example, the thresholds for each item (continuous startup time, total virtual time, and load) are 80%, 90%, and 70%, respectively. If the number of items that are equal to or greater than the threshold is a predetermined number (two in this example) or more, the success likelihood values ​​for the continuous startup time and total operating time are equal to or greater than the thresholds (S102, S103), and the determination unit 54 ultimately determines to execute the proposed countermeasure (S104).

[0067] Next, the case where it is finally decided to execute the proposed countermeasure will be described again with reference to FIG.

[0068] S24: The communication unit 51 of the countermeasure judgment device 50 transmits countermeasure information indicating the proposed countermeasure as a countermeasure to be executed to the automatic countermeasure device 80. This countermeasure information includes the name of the countermeasure target device received in step S14.

[0069] S25: The automatic response device 80 automatically executes the response method indicated in the response method information received in process S24 on the predetermined response target device 20 associated with the response target device name received in process S24.

[0070] S26: The predetermined target device 20 transmits the result of the response resulting from the execution of the response method to the automatic response device 80. This response result includes the target device name of the predetermined target device 20 that is the sender.

[0071] S27: The automatic countermeasure device 80 transmits the countermeasure result including the name of the countermeasure target device received in step S26 to the countermeasure judgment device 50. As a result, the communication unit 51 of the countermeasure judgment device 50 receives the countermeasure result.

[0072] S28: The communication unit 51 of the response judgment device 50 functions as a registration unit, and transmits response history information including the response result received in step S27 to the response history management device 70 and registers it (see FIG. 7(d)). The response history number is issued by the response history management device 70. Here, once all information except for the response history number has been collected, the communication unit 51 transmits the response history information to the response history management device 70 and registers it, but the communication unit 51 may also register it with the automatic response device 80 each time at each intermediate stage shown in FIGS. 7(a), (b), and (c).

[0073] [Major effects of the embodiment] As described above, according to the present embodiment, even if there is little or no historical information available for reference regarding past failures of the same model, the device type of a specific target device 20 can be identified, and past response history information of the same device type can be used to determine whether to execute a specific response method plan for the specific target device 20, thereby achieving the effect of appropriately executing automatic response for failure recovery on the target device 20.

[0074] [Supplementary Note] The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment, and may have the following configurations or processes (operations), for example.

[0075] (1) The countermeasure judgment device 50 can be realized by a computer and a program, but this program can also be recorded on a (non-temporary) recording medium and provided, or the program can be provided via a communication network such as the Internet.

[0076] (2) The processor 1004, which is hardware, may be a single processor or multiple processors.

[0077] REFERENCE SIGNS LIST 10 Communication system 20 Target device 30 Operation-related information management device 40 Monitoring device 50 Response determination device 51 Communication unit (search unit, registration unit) 52 Identification unit 53 Calculation unit 54 Determination unit 60 Storage unit 61 Device type management DB (an example of a device type management unit) 70 Response history management device 80 Automatic response device

Claims

1. A countermeasure judgment device that judges whether or not to execute a predetermined countermeasure method plan for a predetermined countermeasure target device in which a failure has occurred, the countermeasure judgment device having: an identification unit that identifies the predetermined device type of the predetermined countermeasure target device using device type management information that indicates the device type for each countermeasure target device; and a judgment unit that uses countermeasure history management information that includes the device type of the countermeasure target device, the countermeasure method, and the success / failure result of the countermeasure method, to judge whether or not to execute the predetermined countermeasure method plan for the predetermined countermeasure target device based on the predetermined device type and the predetermined success / failure result corresponding to the predetermined countermeasure method plan.

2. A countermeasure judgment device as described in claim 1, wherein the countermeasure history management information includes past operation-related information regarding the operation of the countermeasure target device when a countermeasure method was executed on the countermeasure target device, and the countermeasure judgment device has: a communication unit that receives current operation-related information of the specified countermeasure target device from the outside; and a calculation unit that uses the past operation-related information and the success / failure result to calculate a success probability value when the specified countermeasure method proposal is executed on the specified countermeasure target device in the state indicated by the current operation-related information, wherein the judgment unit judges whether or not to execute the countermeasure method proposal depending on whether the success probability value is equal to or greater than a threshold value.

3. The countermeasure judgment device described in claim 2, wherein the operation-related information includes information on a plurality of items related to operation, the calculation unit calculates, for each item in the past operation-related information, a success probability value when the specified countermeasure proposal is executed on the specified countermeasure target device in the state indicated for each item in the current operation-related information, and the judgment unit judges whether or not to execute the countermeasure proposal depending on whether the success probability value of each item is equal to or greater than the threshold value.

4. The countermeasure judgment device described in claim 3, wherein the judgment unit judges that the specified countermeasure method proposal should be executed if the number of items that are equal to or greater than the threshold is a predetermined number or more, or if the number of multiple items including a predetermined item among all items is a predetermined number or more.

5. The countermeasure determination device according to claim 3, wherein the threshold value is set in advance for each of the items.

6. The countermeasure determination device according to claim 3, wherein the plurality of items include items indicating the continuous startup time, total operation time, and processing load for a predetermined time of the countermeasure target device.

7. A countermeasure judgment method executed by a countermeasure judgment device that judges whether or not to execute a predetermined countermeasure plan for a predetermined countermeasure target device in which a failure has occurred, comprising: a specification process that identifies the predetermined device type of the predetermined countermeasure target device using device type management information that indicates the device type for each countermeasure target device; a judgment process that uses countermeasure history management information that includes the device type of the countermeasure target device, the countermeasure method, and the success / failure results of the countermeasure method to judge whether or not to execute the predetermined countermeasure plan for the predetermined countermeasure target device based on the predetermined device type and the success / failure results corresponding to the predetermined countermeasure plan; and the countermeasure judgment method that is executed.

8. A program for causing a computer to execute the method according to claim 7.

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