Shuttle operation control device, travel management method, and travel management program

Abstract

A shuttle operation control device (3) performs travel control for shuttle operation of trains. A travel pattern determination unit (22) acquires projected demands by timeslot, inter-station spacing, and running direction, and determines a travel pattern that satisfies the projected demands by timeslot, inter-station spacing, and running direction. A travel pattern switching unit (23) switches the travel pattern in response to a change in demands. A shuttle operation evaluation unit (18) detects a timeslot in which there are changes in demands and in travel efficiency evaluation in the travel pattern being implemented, and outputs a switching notice.

Description

Shuttle operation control device, operation management method, and operation management program

[0001] The present disclosure relates to a traffic management device, a traffic management method, and a traffic management program.

[0002] In response to abnormalities in train operations, a certain section including the point where the abnormality occurred is designated as an unserviceable section, and trains on the line are often suspended or operated by turning back at the station just before the unserviceable section. However, in the event of a service interruption, passengers with destinations beyond the section will be unable to reach their destinations. For this reason, shuttle services exist to provide transportation services to passengers who are unable to reach their destinations.

[0003] For example, Patent Document 1 discloses a device that can automatically generate shuttle operation schedules. The device in Patent Document 1 aims to "enable operation control by shuttle operation without instructions from a dispatcher."

[0004] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2017-177901

[0005] In an abnormal situation, passengers will suffer. For example, they may be forced to wait longer than usual at a station or be forced to board a car with a higher occupancy rate than usual. Therefore, shuttle operation control must take into account passenger behavior in an abnormal situation. Passenger behavior in an abnormal situation refers to, for example, how long a passenger who appears at a departure station will wait at which station, how long they will board a car with a higher occupancy rate, and when they will arrive at their destination station. Furthermore, shuttle operation operates in both directions between the same stations at the same time, so it is necessary to take into account predicted demand in both directions. The device in Patent Document 1 has the problem of being unable to perform shuttle operation in response to fluctuations in demand over time.

[0006] The present disclosure aims to realize shuttle operation control that takes into account predicted demand for different time periods, between stations, and in both directions, which changes over time.

[0007] The shuttle operation control device according to the present disclosure is a shuttle operation control device that controls the operation of train shuttle operations, and includes an operation pattern determination unit that acquires predicted demand by time period / station interval / travel direction and determines an operation pattern that satisfies the predicted demand by time period / station interval / travel direction, an operation pattern switching unit that switches the operation pattern in response to changes in demand, and a shuttle operation evaluation unit that detects an operation efficiency evaluation of the operation pattern currently being implemented and time periods when demand changes, and outputs a switching notification.

[0008] The traffic management device according to the present disclosure can realize shuttle operation control that takes into account predicted demand for time periods, between stations, and in both directions that changes over time.

[0009] 1 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of a traffic control system according to the first embodiment. FIG. 1 shows a table used in determining whether to perform shuttle operation or traffic rescheduling in the response method determination unit according to the first embodiment. FIG. 2 shows examples of shuttle operation sections and running sections assumed in the traffic control system according to the first embodiment. FIG. 3 shows an example of the configuration of a predicted demand database by time period / between stations / travel direction according to the first embodiment. FIG. 4 shows demand change time periods divided by time period in which predicted demand changes according to the first embodiment. FIG. 5 shows state transitions of train operation control in the traffic control system according to the first embodiment. A flowchart showing the operation of the traffic control system according to the first embodiment. A flowchart showing example 1 of the operation of determining candidate operation patterns by demand amount in the demand-amount-based operation pattern determination unit according to the first embodiment. A flowchart showing example 2 of the operation of determining candidate operation patterns by demand amount in the demand-amount-based operation pattern determination unit according to the first embodiment. A flowchart showing example 3 of the operation of comparing demand amount and transportation capacity according to the first embodiment. A flowchart showing example 1 of the operation of determining a combination of operation patterns taking switching time into consideration in the operation pattern determination unit according to the first embodiment. A flowchart showing example 2 of the operation of determining a combination of operation patterns taking switching time into consideration in the operation pattern determination unit according to the first embodiment. A flowchart showing the operation of the operation pattern switching unit according to the first embodiment. 1 is a flowchart showing the operation of a shuttle operation evaluation unit according to embodiment 1. FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of a traffic control system according to embodiment 1. FIG. 3 is a diagram showing another example of the hardware configuration of a shuttle operation control device according to a modified example of embodiment 1. FIG. 4 is a diagram showing the effect of a traffic control system according to embodiment 1. FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of a traffic control system according to embodiment 2. FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of the outline of the operation of a demand quantity deviation detection unit according to embodiment 2. FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing example 1 of the operation of a demand quantity deviation detection unit according to embodiment 2. FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing example 2 of the operation of a demand quantity deviation detection unit according to embodiment 2. FIG. 9 is a diagram showing the effect of a traffic control system 1 according to embodiment 2.

[0010] The present embodiment will be described below with reference to the drawings. In each drawing, identical or corresponding parts are designated by the same reference numerals. In the description of the embodiment, the description of identical or corresponding parts will be omitted or simplified as appropriate. Arrows in the drawings mainly indicate the flow of data or the flow of processing. Furthermore, the sized relationships between components in the following drawings may differ from the actual relationships. Furthermore, in the description of the embodiment, directions or positions such as up, down, left, right, front, rear, front and back may be indicated. These notations are used for convenience of explanation and do not limit the placement, direction or orientation of devices, instruments, parts, etc.

[0011] Embodiment 1. ***Description of Configuration and Function*** Figure 1 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of a traffic control system 1 according to this embodiment. The traffic control system 1 is a system that manages train operations. The traffic control system 1 is used in a system that controls train operations by performing wireless communication between trains and ground equipment. An example of such a traffic control system 1 is, but is not limited to, CBTC. CBTC is an abbreviation for Communications-Based Train Control. Note that the train may be composed of multiple cars, or may be a single car.

[0012] The traffic management system 1 includes a diagram-based traffic control device 2 and a shuttle operation control device 3. The diagram-based traffic control device 2 includes, as functional elements, a diagram-based traffic control unit 11, a traffic disruption detection unit 12, a response method determination unit 13, and a traffic rescheduling instruction unit 14. The shuttle operation control device 3 includes, as functional elements, a shuttle operation instruction unit 15, a shuttle operation start unit 16, a shuttle operation control unit 17, a shuttle operation evaluation unit 18, and a shuttle operation end unit 19.

[0013] Each component of the traffic control system 1 shown in FIG. 1 is assumed to be equipment installed on the ground, but is not limited to this. For example, the shuttle operation control unit 17 may be mounted on a train for which the traffic control system 1 controls train operation by shuttle operation. Furthermore, the diagram-based traffic control device 2 and the shuttle operation control device 3 may each be separate computers, or may be configured as a single computer. Alternatively, each of the diagram-based traffic control device 2 and the shuttle operation control device 3 may be configured as multiple computers. In the following description, each of the devices of the diagram-based traffic control device 2 and the shuttle operation control device 3 in the traffic control system 1 may be referred to as each device of the traffic control system 1.

[0014] <Functional Elements of Diagram-Based Operation Control Device 2> The diagram-based operation control unit 11 controls diagram-based operation that operates trains based on a diagram that indicates the arrival and departure times of trains at stations. Furthermore, when the diagram-based operation control unit 11 receives an instruction from the traffic replanning instruction unit 14 to change the diagram, the diagram-based operation control unit 11 controls diagram-based operation that operates trains based on the diagram changed by the traffic replanning instruction unit 14. The traffic replanning instruction unit 14 changes the diagram to resolve disruptions in train operations through traffic replanning. The traffic replanning instruction unit 14 will be described later. The diagram-based operation control unit 11 acquires information on station arrival and departure times from trains, and outputs information on the actual station arrival and departure times of trains obtained by controlling diagram-based operation to the traffic disruption detection unit 12.

[0015] The service disruption detection unit 12 detects a train service disruption based on the error between the station arrival and departure times indicated in the timetable, which shows the train arrival and departure times at stations, and the actual station arrival and departure times of the train. Train service disruptions can be caused by various factors, such as a train accident, a train breakdown, or a temporary increase in the number of people in a specific section due to an event being held along the railway line. The service disruption detection unit 12 acquires information on the actual station arrival and departure times of trains from the timetable-based service control unit 11. The service disruption detection unit 12 also stores the timetable information. For example, the service disruption detection unit 12 compares the error with a specified threshold value for detecting a train service disruption. If the error is less than the threshold value, the service disruption detection unit 12 determines that there is no disruption in train service. If the error is equal to or greater than the threshold value, the service disruption detection unit 12 determines that there is a train service disruption.

[0016] The service disruption detection unit 12 may detect a train service disruption using, in addition to an error in the station arrival and departure times, an error between the time required for trains to travel between stations indicated in the timetable and the actual time required for trains to travel between stations. When the service disruption detection unit 12 determines that train service is disrupted, that is, when it detects a train service disruption, it notifies the response method determination unit 13 that a train service disruption has been detected. At this time, the service disruption detection unit 12 also notifies the response method determination unit 13 of information about the error. When the service disruption detection unit 12 determines that train service is not disrupted, that is, when it has not detected a train service disruption, it does not need to notify the response method determination unit 13 of anything. Alternatively, the service disruption detection unit 12 may notify the response method determination unit 13 that a train service disruption has not been detected.

[0017] When the service disruption detection unit 12 detects a train service disruption, the response method determination unit 13 determines whether to resolve the train service disruption by rescheduling the train schedule, or by shuttle operation, in which trains are turned around in specified single-track sections. The response method determination unit 13 obtains information from the service disruption detection unit 12 regarding the difference between the station arrival and departure times indicated in the schedule, which shows the train arrival and departure times at stations, and the actual station arrival and departure times of the train. The response method determination unit 13 also obtains information used to determine whether to reschedule the train schedule or to perform shuttle operation. The information used to determine whether to perform service rescheduling or shuttle operation is, for example, the following information: - Train congestion rate between stations while stopped at a station and while in operation - Number of passengers who have passed through ticket gates - Location and details of the malfunctioning train where a breakdown has occurred - Location and details of the accident of the accident train involved in the accident - Information on sections where trains cannot run due to fire, flooding, etc.

[0018] When the traffic control system 1 has acquired information to be used for determining whether to reschedule trains or to use shuttle driving, the response method determination unit 13 acquires the information by reading it from a memory (not shown) in which the information is stored. When the traffic control system 1 has not acquired information to be used for determining whether to reschedule trains or to use shuttle driving, the response method determination unit 13 acquires the information from an external device (not shown) that stores the information.

[0019] The response method determination unit 13 uses the above-mentioned error and at least one of the pieces of information used to determine whether to reschedule train operations or to use shuttle operation, to determine whether to resolve the disruption in train operations by rescheduling train operations or by using shuttle operation.

[0020] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing a table used by the response method determination unit 13 according to this embodiment to determine whether to use shuttle operation or train rescheduling. For example, a table is stored that predefines what combinations of acquired information are used to determine whether to resolve the disruption through train rescheduling and what combinations are used to determine whether to resolve the disruption through shuttle operation. The response method determination unit 13 may search this table based on the acquired information to determine whether to resolve the disruption through train rescheduling or shuttle operation. As shown in FIG. 2, the table shows criteria for determining whether to resolve demand through shuttle operation or train rescheduling.

[0021] Furthermore, when a line on which trains operate is divided into several sections due to a natural disaster or the like, the response method determination unit 13 may determine to implement shuttle operation in each divided section. When the response method determination unit 13 determines that the train operation disruption will be resolved by operation rescheduling, it notifies the operation rescheduling instruction unit 14 that the train operation disruption will be resolved by operation rescheduling. When the response method determination unit 13 determines that the train operation disruption will be resolved by shuttle operation, it notifies the shuttle operation instruction unit 15 that the train operation disruption will be resolved by shuttle operation. Note that the response method determination unit 13 may output information such as the above-mentioned error used in the determination to the operation rescheduling instruction unit 14 or the shuttle operation instruction unit 15 together with the notification of the determination result.

[0022] When rescheduling a train service disruption, the traffic replanning instruction unit 14 changes the timetable and instructs the timetable-based operation control unit 11 on information about train arrival and departure times at stations based on the changed timetable. For example, in response to a traffic disruption that widens the interval between specific trains, the traffic replanning instruction unit 14 makes a timetable change such as adding a train to the timetable for that train interval. For example, when the traffic replanning instruction unit 14 is notified by the response method determination unit 13 that the disruption will be resolved by traffic replanning, the traffic replanning instruction unit 14 acquires from the response method determination unit 13 the information used when it was determined that the disruption would be resolved by traffic replanning. The traffic replanning instruction unit 14 then changes the timetable using the acquired information. Examples of the content of the traffic replanning include, but are not limited to, increasing the frequency of trains, extending the time that trains stop at stations, or changing the destination of trains.

[0023] <Functional elements of shuttle operation control device 3> When shuttle operation is used to resolve train operation disruptions, the shuttle operation instruction unit 15 determines a shuttle operation pattern for the shuttle operation section that is the target of shuttle operation. The shuttle operation instruction unit 15 determines the shuttle operation pattern based on the predicted demand. The shuttle operation instruction unit 15 then assigns running trains to the running sections defined by the operation pattern. The shuttle operation section is a single-track section that is the target of control and where trains, whose range is defined by the boundary stations at both ends that serve as the starting and ending points, perform turnaround operations.

[0024] In addition, a memory (not shown) stores shuttle operation sections 31 set by the dispatcher, train operation patterns 32 set by the dispatcher, out-of-service sections 33, schedule delay times 34, the location of a malfunctioning train and details of the malfunction 35, the location of an accident train and details of the accident 36, and a demand change time period 37.

[0025] FIG. 3 is a diagram showing examples of shuttle operation sections and running sections where shuttle operation is performed as assumed by the traffic control system 1 according to this embodiment. As shown in FIG. 3 , the operation pattern indicates whether a single running section is set for the shuttle operation section, whether multiple running sections are set by setting running sections for each station, or whether some running sections overlap. A running section indicates a section defined between stations where a single or multiple trains run. The shuttle operation instruction unit 15 includes an operation pattern determination unit 22, an operation pattern switching unit 23, and a train allocation unit 24. The operation pattern determination unit 22 is also referred to as a demand-based operation pattern determination unit.

[0026] When the demand-based operation pattern determination unit 22 is notified by a shuttle operation instruction command that shuttle operation will be performed, it refers to the predicted demand database 30. The predicted demand database 30 stores predicted demand by time period / between stations / travel direction. The operation pattern determination unit 22 refers to the predicted demand database 30 by time period / between stations / travel direction, and determines an operation pattern by time period of demand change, taking into consideration the shuttle operation section set in advance by the dispatcher and the operation pattern set in advance by the dispatcher.

[0027] The following describes the processing performed by the demand-based operation pattern determination unit 22. For example, the shuttle operation section to be adopted is determined using at least one of the following information: the location and details of the failed train, the location and details of the accident train, and the section where trains cannot run. In FIG. 3 , the shuttle operation section is a double-track section defined in advance by the dispatcher, with the abnormality location sandwiched between two interlocking areas. The section of the line opposite the line containing the abnormality location is adopted as the shuttle operation section. The demand-based operation pattern determination unit 22 extracts candidate operation patterns with sufficient transport capacity for the predicted demand from among the operation patterns defined in advance by the dispatcher. The demand-based operation pattern determination unit 22 further considers switching between candidate operation patterns and determines the operation pattern that allows the smoothest switching, taking into account the switching time and the stop time of trains stopped during the switching (train stop time).

[0028] FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of the time-zone / station-to-station / travel direction-specific predicted demand database 30 according to this embodiment. FIG. 5 is a diagram showing a demand change time period divided into time periods during which predicted demand changes according to this embodiment. As shown in FIG. 4, the time-zone / station-to-station / travel direction-specific predicted demand database 30 is a database that stores the predicted number of passengers who will experience demand by time period, station-to-station, and travel direction. Also, as shown in FIG. 5, the demand change time period is a time range obtained by dividing the predictable time into times at which the demand changes by a set percentage from the maximum demand, based on the time at which the maximum demand occurs over the entire predictable time. The switching time is the time it takes for a train running on a travel section of the pre-switching operation pattern to complete its movement to a travel section of the post-switching operation pattern.

[0029] The operation pattern switching unit 23 switches to the operation pattern for the next demand change time period, based on the switching instruction sent from the shuttle operation evaluation unit 18, by referring to the operation patterns for each demand change time period determined by the operation pattern determination unit 22. For example, when a switching instruction is received, the current demand change time period of 10:00 to 11:00 is reset to operation pattern A for the next demand change time period of 11:00 to 12:00, and the selected operation pattern A is passed to the train allocation unit 24.

[0030] The train allocation unit 24 allocates designated running sections to each train based on the operation pattern determined by the operation pattern switching unit 23. In the example of Fig. 3, for example, train X and train Y are assigned to the running sections defined by operation pattern A, between stations a and b, and between stations be, respectively.

[0031] The shuttle operation section previously set by the dispatcher and the train operation pattern within the shuttle operation section previously set by the dispatcher may be calculated or defined separately. Alternatively, they may be calculated or defined as a combination of possible operation patterns for the shuttle operation section previously set by the dispatcher. For example, by identifying points where abnormalities frequently occur from statistical data, and setting the abnormal points as sections that are out of service, shuttle operation sections in which shuttle operation can be performed and train operation patterns within the shuttle operation section may be calculated or defined in advance. For the shuttle operation section to be shuttled, the shuttle operation instruction unit 15 may set one running section so that one train performs shuttle operation throughout the entire shuttle operation section. Alternatively, the shuttle operation instruction unit 15 may set multiple running sections so that multiple trains each perform shuttle operation within their assigned running sections. The shuttle operation instruction unit 15 outputs information about the running sections for which shuttle operation has been determined and the trains assigned to each running section to the shuttle operation initiation unit 16.

[0032] The shuttle operation initiation unit 16 moves the assigned train to the running section determined by the shuttle operation instruction unit 15 based on the information acquired from the shuttle operation instruction unit 15. As described above, when the shuttle operation instruction unit 15 sets multiple running sections for the shuttle operation section that is the target of shuttle operation, if there is no train assigned to each running section, the shuttle operation control unit 17 (described later) cannot control the shuttle operation. Therefore, the shuttle operation initiation unit 16 controls each train assigned to each running section, such as moving them, thereby enabling the shuttle operation control unit 17 to control the shuttle operation. When moving each train assigned to a running section, the shuttle operation initiation unit 16 can move each train assigned to the running section by running each train to a station at a specified boundary of the running section, for example, a station on the upbound side or a station on the downbound side, but this is not limitative.

[0033] The shuttle operation control unit 17 sets a route for the train to travel within the travel section range determined by the shuttle operation instruction unit 15, and causes the train to travel according to the set route. For trains for which a route can be set within the assigned travel section, the shuttle operation control unit 17 causes the train to travel within the set route range. Furthermore, when the train arrives at a station, the shuttle operation control unit 17 determines whether or not to turn back and run the train based on the travel section assigned to the train. The shuttle operation control unit 17 notifies the shuttle operation evaluation unit 18 of information on the current train operation status. Examples of information on the current train operation status include, but are not limited to, the current train position, the train's arrival and departure times at stations, the train's travel time between stations, and the train's travel direction.

[0034] In this embodiment, each train assigned to each running section of the shuttle operation section automatically secures a route within the running section and travels without receiving instructions from a dispatcher at the control center or the like. Each train grasps the locations of other trains within the shuttle operation section, and, for example, if no other trains are stopping at the next station, it requests the shuttle operation control unit 17 for a route to the next station. Furthermore, if other trains are stopping at the next station, each train does not request a route from the shuttle operation control unit 17. In this way, each train shares routes and stations within the shuttle operation section between trains by grasping the locations of other trains and suppressing departures at stations, etc. The shuttle operation control unit 17 secures a route in response to a request from a train and notifies the requesting train of the secured route. Because trains travel within the running section within the secured route, the shuttle operation control unit 17 can also control the travel of each train by securing a route for each train. Note that, in order for each train to request a route, each train needs to obtain information about the assigned running section. Therefore, the shuttle operation instruction unit 15, the shuttle operation start unit 16, or the shuttle operation control unit 17 instructs the train on the running section.

[0035] The shuttle operation control unit 17 performs control when a train secures a route, when the train travels along a route, and when the train determines whether to turn back when arriving at a station. Therefore, the shuttle operation control unit 17 may be installed on wayside equipment and control all trains traveling on each section of the shuttle operation section. Alternatively, the shuttle operation control unit 17 may be installed on each train and control only the train on which it is installed. Regarding the method by which a train determines the location of other trains, each train may transmit its own location information to wayside equipment and obtain the location information of other trains from the wayside equipment. Alternatively, each train may directly transmit and receive location information with other trains via wireless communication or the like. In this case, the wayside equipment that transmits and receives the location information of each train may be the traffic control system 1 or another system. The method for securing the route of each train may be the same as the method for securing a route using CBTC as described above. In this way, when the traffic control system 1 performs control using shuttle operation, trains traveling on each section of the shuttle operation section autonomously secure a route and travel. This eliminates the need for the traffic control system 1 to create a timetable for shuttle operation. Furthermore, with the traffic control system 1, there is no need for a dispatcher at the control center to create a schedule for shuttle operations.

[0036] The shuttle driving evaluation unit 18 determines whether to continue shuttle driving or to switch the operation pattern. The shuttle driving evaluation unit 18 determines whether to continue shuttle driving based on the information used by the response method determination unit 13, the information acquired from the shuttle driving instruction unit, and the information acquired from the shuttle driving control unit 17. For example, if the abnormality location is resolved and the demand information is evaluated to determine that returning to schedule-based operation would be more efficient, the shuttle driving evaluation unit 18 terminates the operation pattern. The shuttle driving evaluation unit 18 determines whether to switch the operation pattern based on the demand change time period acquired from the shuttle driving instruction unit 15. For example, when the current time is the next demand change time period, the shuttle driving evaluation unit 18 sends a switch execution command to the operation pattern switching unit 23. The shuttle driving evaluation unit 18 may acquire the information used by the response method determination unit 13 from the response method determination unit 13 via the shuttle driving instruction unit 15, the shuttle driving start unit 16, and the shuttle driving control unit 17. 1, the shuttle operation evaluation unit 18 may acquire information directly from the response method determination unit 13. When the shuttle operation evaluation unit 18 determines that it is possible to return to schedule-based operation or that returning to schedule-based operation would improve train operation efficiency, it determines to end shuttle operation and return to schedule-based operation.

[0037] When the shuttle operation evaluation unit 18 determines that shuttle operation should be terminated, the shuttle operation termination unit 19 moves the train that was performing shuttle operation to a position where it can operate based on the timetable. The operation of the shuttle operation termination unit 19 is the opposite of the operation of the shuttle operation start unit 16. When the shuttle operation termination unit 19 has completed moving the train that was performing shuttle operation to a position where it can operate based on the timetable, it notifies the timetable-based operation control unit 11 that it can operate based on the timetable, i.e., that timetable-based operation is possible. Even when the shuttle operation evaluation unit 18 determines that shuttle operation should be terminated and a return to timetable-based operation should be made, the traffic management system 1 does not immediately transition to timetable-based operation. The traffic management system 1 controls the transition to timetable-based operation in stages, so that the shuttle operation termination unit 19 moves the position of the train within the shuttle operation section before transitioning to timetable-based operation.

[0038] 6 is a diagram showing state transitions of train operation control in the traffic control system 1 according to this embodiment. In this way, the traffic control system 1 controls train operation by either a timetable-based operation in which trains are operated based on a timetable, or a shuttle operation in which trains are turned around in a specified single-track section.

[0039] ***Explanation of Operation*** Next, the operation of the traffic management system 1 according to this embodiment will be described. The operation procedures of each device in the traffic management system 1 correspond to a traffic management method. Furthermore, the program that realizes the operation of each device in the traffic management system 1 corresponds to a traffic management program.

[0040] <Traffic Management Processing> FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing the operation of the traffic management system 1 according to this embodiment. In the traffic management system 1, the schedule-based traffic control unit 11 controls train traffic using a normal schedule-based operation based on a timetable indicating train arrival and departure times at stations (step S101). The traffic disruption detection unit 12 determines whether a train traffic disruption has occurred based on the difference between the station arrival and departure times indicated in the timetable indicating train arrival and departure times at stations and the actual train arrival and departure times (step S102). If no train traffic disruption has occurred (step S102: No), the traffic management system 1 returns to step S101 and controls train traffic using the normal schedule-based operation by the schedule-based traffic control unit 11. If a train traffic disruption has occurred (step S102: Yes), the traffic disruption detection unit 12 notifies the response method determination unit 13 that a train traffic disruption has occurred.

[0041] If the response method determination unit 13 determines that a train rescheduling should be performed (step S103: Yes), it instructs the train rescheduling instruction unit 14 to perform the rescheduling. The train rescheduling instruction unit 14 performs the rescheduling by changing the timetable and informing the timetable-based operation control unit 11 of train arrival and departure times at stations based on the changed timetable (step S104). While performing the rescheduling, the traffic management system 1 repeats the operations of steps S101, S102: Yes, S103: Yes, and S104 as described above. If the traffic disruption detection unit 12 determines that no train disruption has occurred (step S102: No), or if the response method determination unit 13 determines that shuttle operation should be performed (step S103: No), the traffic management system 1 ends the train rescheduling.

[0042] If the response method determination unit 13 determines that shuttle operation is the appropriate response (step S103: No), it instructs the shuttle operation instruction unit 15 to perform shuttle operation. The shuttle operation instruction unit 15 determines an operation pattern for each shuttle operation demand (step S105). The shuttle operation instruction unit 15 switches the operation pattern (step S106). The shuttle operation instruction unit 15 executes a process of assigning trains to run on the running sections defined by the operation pattern (step S107). The shuttle operation start unit 16 runs each train to a station at the defined boundary of the running section, and prepares the train for starting shuttle operation (step S108). The shuttle operation control unit 17 controls the shuttle operation of the target train (step S109).

[0043] If the shuttle driving evaluation unit 18 determines to switch the operation pattern of shuttle driving (step S110: Yes), it notifies the operation pattern switching unit 23 that the operation pattern should be switched. If the shuttle driving evaluation unit 18 determines not to switch the operation pattern of shuttle driving (step S110: No), it continues shuttle driving with that operation pattern.

[0044] When the shuttle operation evaluation unit 18 determines to continue shuttle operation (step S111: Yes), it notifies the shuttle operation control unit 17 of the continuation of shuttle operation, thereby causing the shuttle operation control unit 17 to continue shuttle operation of the train (step S109). When the shuttle operation evaluation unit 18 determines to end shuttle operation (step S111: No), it notifies the shuttle operation ending unit 19 of the end of shuttle operation. The shuttle operation ending unit 19 runs each train to a station specified in the timetable, and makes it possible to resume timetable-based operation (step S112).

[0045] The traffic control system 1 is capable of switching from traffic rescheduling to shuttle operation when train traffic is disrupted. The traffic control system 1 is also capable of switching from shuttle operation to traffic rescheduling when train traffic is disrupted. The shuttle operation evaluation unit 18 evaluates the current shuttle operation in terms of operational efficiency, and if the efficiency is below a threshold, sends a termination command to the shuttle operation termination unit 19. The shuttle operation termination unit 19 then sends a schedule-based operation implementation command to the schedule-based operation control unit 11, and switches to schedule-based traffic rescheduling.

[0046] <<Demand-Based Operation Pattern Determination Process: Step S105>> Next, an algorithm for determining a demand-based operation pattern (step S105) performed by the operation management system 1 will be shown. This algorithm is executed by the demand-based operation pattern determination unit 22 in FIG. 1 .

[0047] The algorithm for determining operation patterns by demand volume calculates candidate operation patterns for each time period of demand change. The algorithm for determining operation patterns by demand volume also performs a process of selecting combinations of operation patterns for each time period of demand change from the calculated candidate operation patterns for each time period of demand change. Candidate operation patterns for each time period of demand change refer to multiple operation patterns that have just the right amount of transportation capacity to meet the demand for each time period of demand change. The process of calculating candidate operation patterns for each time period of demand change involves executing steps S201 to S210 in FIG. 8 or steps S201 to S212 in FIG. 9. The process of determining combinations of operation patterns for each time period of demand change from candidate operation patterns for each time period of demand change involves executing steps S213 to S220 in FIG. 11 or steps S221 to S226 in FIG. 12.

[0048] <<<<Figure 8: Example 1 of calculation of operation pattern candidates by demand change time period>>> Figure 8 is a flowchart showing example 1 of the operation of determining operation pattern candidates by demand amount in the demand-by-demand amount operation pattern determination unit 22 according to this embodiment. The algorithm for determining operation patterns by simulation evaluation in Figure 8 will be described.

[0049] First, the operation pattern determination unit 22 acquires the predicted demand database 30 by time period / station interval / travel direction (step S201). First, the operation pattern determination unit 22 calculates the demand change time period as a time period divided by the time when the predicted demand reaches its maximum value, as shown in FIG. 5, by the time when the predicted demand changes by a set percentage from the maximum value (step S202). The operation pattern determination unit 22 selects one demand change time period (step S203). The operation pattern determination unit 22 selects one operation pattern (step S204).

[0050] The operation pattern determination unit 22 performs a rule-based simulation of passenger waiting times, the number of passenger transfers, the congestion rate of the trains the passengers boarded, and the total travel distance per train, for each hour of the day, based on the demand during the demand change time period and the train allocation in the operation pattern (step S205). After performing the simulation, the operation pattern determination unit 22 calculates the waiting time per passenger, station waiting time, occupancy rate, number of transfers, the total travel distance per train, and the total travel time as disutility values ​​(step S206).

[0051] The operation pattern determination unit 22 saves the calculated disutility value as an evaluation value (step S207). Here, the disutility value is the cost of damage suffered by passengers. This makes it possible to compare the cost indicating the damage suffered by passengers with the cost of train operation. The cost of train operation is the cost paid by the operator, such as fuel costs and maintenance costs for the train.

[0052] The flow from step S203 to step S207 is repeated until there are no unselected operation patterns previously set by the dispatcher (step S208) and no unselected demand change time periods (step S209). Finally, the operation pattern determination unit 22 determines whether each disutility value calculated for all cases is equal to or greater than a set threshold (step S210). If the disutility value is less than the threshold, the operation pattern determination unit 22 outputs operation pattern candidates 111 for each demand change time period.

[0053] <<<<Figure 9: Calculation Example 2 of Operation Pattern Candidates by Demand Volume Change Time Period>>> Figure 9 is a flowchart showing Example 2 of the operation of determining operation pattern candidates by demand volume in the demand-volume-based operation pattern determination unit 22 according to this embodiment. The operation pattern determination algorithm by transport capacity comparison in Example 2 of Figure 9 will be described. The flow is the same up to the aforementioned early step S204. After step S204, the operation pattern determination unit 22 compares the demand volume with the maximum transport capacity in the operation pattern by station interval / travel direction during the demand volume change time period (step S211).

[0054] The operation pattern determination unit 22 determines whether the absolute value of the difference between the demand volume and the maximum transport capacity exceeds the threshold value (step S212). If it determines that it does, the operation pattern determination unit 22 returns to step S204 and selects the next operation pattern. If it determines that it does not exceed the threshold value, the operation pattern determination unit 22 saves the operation pattern corresponding to the demand volume change time period as a result (step S207). In this way, the operation pattern is saved as a result in step S207 of FIG. 9. On the other hand, the disutility value is saved as a result in step S207 of FIG. 8. Thereafter, the flow is as described above, and steps S208 to S209 are executed. Finally, the operation pattern candidate 111 for the demand volume change time period is output.

[0055] <<<<Fig. 10: Operation for Comparing Demand and Transport Capacity>>> Fig. 10 is a flowchart showing an example of the operation for comparing demand and transport capacity according to this embodiment. Furthermore, the algorithm for comparing demand and transport capacity, which is performed in steps S212 and S207 of the demand-based operation pattern determination unit as shown in Fig. 10, will be described.

[0056] First, the operation pattern determination unit 22 acquires a demand change time period, a shuttle operation section, and an operation pattern (step S501). The operation pattern determination unit 22 selects one interlocking station that is an adjacent station in the shuttle operation section (step S502). The operation pattern determination unit 22 calculates the operation time interval between the interlocking station and the shuttle operation section boundary station in the regular timetable (step S503). The operation pattern determination unit 22 calculates the maximum transport capacity of the shuttle operation section boundary station, taking into account the operation time interval in the regular timetable and the maximum number of passengers that can be carried by the train (step S504). The shuttle operation section boundary station is also referred to as the outer edge of the shuttle operation section. The operation pattern determination unit 22 repeats the processes from step S502 to step S504 until there are no more interlocking stations that have not yet been selected (step S505).

[0057] If it is determined that there are no unselected interlocking stations, the operation pattern determination unit 22 selects one inter-station section within the shuttle operation section (step S506).The operation pattern determination unit 22 calculates the minimum round-trip time between stations from the distance of the running section and the station waiting time (step S507).The operation pattern determination unit 22 calculates the maximum transport capacity within the shuttle operation section, taking into account the minimum round-trip time and the maximum number of passengers that can be carried by the train (step S508).The operation pattern determination unit 22 repeats steps S506 to S508 until there are no unselected inter-station sections within the shuttle operation section (step S509).

[0058] The operation pattern determination unit 22 acquires the demand [number of passengers / unit time] for the demand change time period (step S510). The operation pattern determination unit 22 compares the demand [number of passengers / unit time] for each station and travel direction with the shuttle operation transport capacity [number of passengers / unit time] for each station (step S511). The operation pattern determination unit 22 determines whether the difference between the transport capacity and the demand exceeds a threshold (step S212). If the difference does not exceed the threshold, the operation pattern determination unit 22 stores the result of the demand (step S207).

[0059] <<Determining Operation Pattern Combinations by Demand Volume Change Time Period>> Next, the operation pattern determination unit 22 determines the operation pattern combinations by demand volume change time period for the operation pattern candidates 111 selected for each demand volume change time period calculated by the processes in Figures 8 and 9. The operation pattern determination unit 22 selects one operation pattern for each demand volume change time period based on the operation pattern combination determination by demand volume change time period. The following describes the algorithm by which the operation pattern determination unit 22 determines the operation pattern combinations by demand volume change time period and selects one operation pattern for each demand volume change time period. The operation pattern determination unit 22 executes steps S213 to S220 in Figure 11 or steps S221 to S225 in Figure 12.

[0060] <<<< Figure 11: Example 1 of operation for determining operation pattern combinations taking switching time into consideration >>> Figure 11 is a flowchart showing example 1 of operation for determining operation pattern combinations taking switching time into consideration, performed by the operation pattern determination unit 22 according to this embodiment. Figure 11 explains an algorithm for adopting the smallest switching time in each of the preceding and following demand change time periods for operation pattern candidates 111 selected for each demand change time period.

[0061] First, the operation pattern determination unit 22 selects the demand change time period with the first travel time (step S213). Then, the operation pattern determination unit 22 extracts all operation pattern candidates for the selected demand change time period (step S214). Then, the operation pattern determination unit 22 selects the next demand change time period (step S215). Then, the operation pattern determination unit 22 extracts all operation pattern candidates for the selected demand change time period (step S216).

[0062] The operation pattern determination unit 22 performs a simulation to select the operation pattern combination with the shortest switching time and train stop time from the combinations of the selected operation pattern candidates for the two demand change time periods (step S217). In this simulation, trains are allocated for each running section for the two switching operation patterns, and the situation is simulated until the train is completely moved to the running section of the next operation pattern. As a result, the operation pattern determination unit 22 calculates the switching time and, if a train stop occurs due to the switching, the train stop time. The operation pattern determination unit 22 saves the results of the calculation of the operation pattern combination with the shortest switching time and the smallest number of train stops (step S218).

[0063] The operation pattern determination unit 22 then sets the operation pattern for the demand change time period selected in step S215 as the reference operation pattern (step S219). The operation pattern determination unit 22 determines whether there is a next demand change time period (step S220). If there is a next demand change time period, the operation pattern determination unit 22 selects a demand change time period again in step S215. The operation pattern determination unit 22 repeats steps S215 to S220 until there are no more next demand change time periods. Finally, the operation pattern determination unit 22 outputs one operation pattern 120 determined for each demand change time period.

[0064] <<<<FIG. 12: Example 2 of Operation for Determining Operation Pattern Combinations Taking Switching Time into Account>>> FIG. 12 is a flowchart showing Example 2 of operation for determining operation pattern combinations taking switching time into account, performed by the operation pattern determination unit 22 according to this embodiment. FIG. 12 explains an algorithm for adopting the minimum switching time across all demand change time periods for the operation pattern candidate 111 selected for each demand change time period. First, the operation pattern determination unit 22 calculates (extracts) operation pattern combinations for each demand change time period (step S221). The operation pattern determination unit 22 selects one of the combinations (step S222). The operation pattern determination unit 22 calculates the switching time and train stop time for the selected combination (step S223). The operation pattern determination unit 22 saves the calculation results of the switching time and train stop time for the selected combination (step S218). The operation pattern determination unit 22 determines whether there are any unselected operation pattern combinations (step S224). If there are any unselected operation pattern combinations, the process returns to step S222. If there are no unselected operation pattern combinations, the operation pattern determination unit 22 calculates an operation pattern that minimizes the switching time and train stop time (step S225). Finally, the operation pattern determination unit 22 outputs one operation pattern 120 determined for each demand change time period.

[0065] <<Fig. 13: Operation of the operation pattern switching unit 23>> Fig. 13 is a flowchart showing the operation of the operation pattern switching unit 23 according to this embodiment. Fig. 13 shows an operation pattern switching algorithm performed by the operation management system 1. This algorithm is executed by the operation pattern switching unit 23.

[0066] The operation pattern switching algorithm is shown in the flowchart of FIG.

[0067] First, the operation pattern switching unit 23 acquires the current demand change time period (step S301). The operation pattern switching unit 23 determines whether or not a switching instruction is present, taking into account the switching instruction output from the shuttle operation evaluation unit 18 (step S302). If no switching instruction is present, the operation pattern switching unit 23 terminates processing. If a switching instruction is present, the operation pattern switching unit 23 extracts an operation pattern for the next demand change time period, taking into account the operation patterns 120 for each demand change time period (step S303).

[0068] <<Fig. 14: Operation of shuttle driving evaluation unit 18>> Fig. 14 is a flowchart showing the operation of the shuttle driving evaluation unit 18 according to this embodiment. Fig. 14 shows an algorithm of the shuttle driving evaluation unit 18 performed by the operation management system 1. This algorithm is executed by the shuttle driving evaluation unit 18 in Fig. 1. It is executed independently of the shuttle driving control unit 17 in Fig. 1. The algorithm of the shuttle driving evaluation unit determines whether to end shuttle driving and whether to switch operation patterns.

[0069] First, the shuttle operation evaluation unit 18 acquires the number of passengers passing through the current ticket gate, the train congestion level, and the current demand change time period (step S601). The shuttle operation evaluation unit 18 selects the current operation pattern (step S602). Next, the shuttle operation evaluation unit 18 calculates the current operation efficiency (step S603). Here, the operation efficiency is calculated as the number of passengers passing through the current ticket gate per unit time.

[0070] The shuttle driving evaluation unit 18 determines whether the calculated operation efficiency is equal to or less than a threshold value (step S604). If it is equal to or less than the threshold value, the shuttle driving evaluation unit 18 sends a command to the shuttle driving termination unit 19. If it is equal to or greater than the threshold value, the shuttle driving evaluation unit 18 determines whether to switch from the current demand volume change time period, taking into account the demand volume change time period 509 (step S605). If it determines to switch, the shuttle driving evaluation unit 18 sends a switch notification to the operation pattern switching unit 23. If it determines not to switch, the shuttle driving evaluation unit 18 waits until a certain time period has elapsed (step S607).

[0071] ***Explanation of an Example of Hardware Configuration*** Fig. 15 is a diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of the traffic management system 1 according to this embodiment. The devices of the diagram-based traffic control device 2 and the shuttle operation control device 3 in the traffic management system 1 may be referred to as the respective devices of the traffic management system 1. In the following drawings, the hardware configuration will be explained using the shuttle operation control device 3 as an example. The same applies to the hardware configuration of the diagram-based traffic control device 2.

[0072] The shuttle operation control device 3 is a computer. The shuttle operation control device 3 includes a processor 910, as well as other hardware such as a memory 921, an auxiliary storage device 922, an input / output interface 930, and a communication interface 950. The processor 910 is connected to the other hardware via a signal line 80 and controls the other hardware.

[0073] As described above, the shuttle operation control device 3 includes, as functional elements, a shuttle operation instruction unit 15, a shuttle operation start unit 16, a shuttle operation control unit 17, a shuttle operation evaluation unit 18, and a shuttle operation end unit 19. These may be referred to as each unit of the shuttle operation control device 3. The function of each unit of the shuttle operation control device 3 is realized by software.

[0074] The processor 910 is a device that executes a traffic management program. The traffic management program is a program that realizes the functions of each device in the traffic management system 1. The processor 910 is an IC that performs arithmetic processing. Specific examples of the processor 910 are a CPU, a DSP, and a GPU. IC is an abbreviation for Integrated Circuit. CPU is an abbreviation for Central Processing Unit. DSP is an abbreviation for Digital Signal Processor. GPU is an abbreviation for Graphics Processing Unit.

[0075] The memory 921 is a storage device that temporarily stores data. Specific examples of the memory 921 are SRAM and DRAM. SRAM is an abbreviation for Static Random Access Memory. DRAM is an abbreviation for Dynamic Random Access Memory. The auxiliary storage device 922 is a storage device that saves data. A specific example of the auxiliary storage device 922 is an HDD. The auxiliary storage device 922 may also be a portable storage medium such as an SD (registered trademark) memory card, CF, NAND flash, flexible disk, optical disk, compact disk, Blu-ray (registered trademark) disk, or DVD. Note that HDD is an abbreviation for Hard Disk Drive. SD (registered trademark) is an abbreviation for Secure Digital. CF is an abbreviation for CompactFlash (registered trademark). DVD is an abbreviation for Digital Versatile Disk.

[0076] The input / output interface 930 is an interface for connecting input / output devices. Specific examples of the input / output interface 930 include USB and HDMI (registered trademark) ports. USB stands for Universal Serial Bus. HDMI (registered trademark) stands for High-Definition Multimedia Interface.

[0077] The communication interface 950 is an interface for communicating with an external device, and is specifically an Ethernet (registered trademark) port or a device for wireless communication.

[0078] The traffic management program is executed in each device of the traffic management system 1. The traffic management program is read into the processor 910 and executed by the processor 910. The memory 921 stores not only the traffic management program but also an OS. OS is an abbreviation for Operating System. The processor 910 executes the traffic management program while executing the OS. The traffic management program and the OS may be stored in an auxiliary storage device 922. The traffic management program and the OS stored in the auxiliary storage device 922 are loaded into the memory 921 and executed by the processor 910. Note that part or all of the traffic management program may be incorporated into the OS.

[0079] The shuttle operation control device 3 may include multiple processors that replace the processor 910. These multiple processors share the task of executing the operation control program. Each processor is a device that executes the operation control program in the same way as the processor 910.

[0080] The data, information, signal values ​​and variable values ​​used, processed or output by the traffic management program are stored in the memory 921, the auxiliary storage device 922, or a register or cache memory within the processor 910.

[0081] The "part" of each part of each device of the traffic management system 1 may be read as a "circuit," "step," "procedure," "process," or "circuitry." The traffic management program causes a computer to execute each process, where the "part" of each part of each device of the traffic management system 1 is read as a "process." The "process" of each process of each device of the traffic management system 1 may be read as a "program," "program product," "computer-readable storage medium storing a program," or "computer-readable recording medium recording a program." Furthermore, the traffic management method is a method carried out by each device of the traffic management system 1 executing the traffic management program. The traffic management program may be provided by being stored in a computer-readable recording medium. Furthermore, the ground control point generation program may be provided as a program product.

[0082] ***Other Configurations*** <Modification> In this embodiment, the functions of each unit of each device in the traffic control system 1 are realized by software. As a modification, the functions of each unit of each device in the traffic control system 1 may be realized by hardware. Specifically, the shuttle operation control device 3 includes an electronic circuit 909 instead of the processor 910.

[0083] 16 is a diagram showing another example of the hardware configuration of the shuttle operation control device 3 according to a modified example of this embodiment. The electronic circuit 909 is a dedicated electronic circuit that realizes the functions of each part of the shuttle operation control device 3. Specifically, the electronic circuit 909 is a single circuit, a composite circuit, a programmed processor, a parallel programmed processor, a logic IC, GA, ASIC, or FPGA. GA is an abbreviation for Gate Array. ASIC is an abbreviation for Application Specific Integrated Circuit. FPGA is an abbreviation for Field-Programmable Gate Array.

[0084] The functions of each part of the shuttle operation control device 3 may be realized by a single electronic circuit, or may be realized by distributing the functions across multiple electronic circuits.

[0085] As another modification, some of the functions of each unit of the shuttle operation control device 3 may be realized by electronic circuits, and the remaining functions may be realized by software. Also, some or all of the functions of each unit of the shuttle operation control device 3 may be realized by firmware.

[0086] Each of the processor and electronic circuits is also called a processing circuitry. That is, the functions of each part of the shuttle operation control device 3 are realized by the processing circuitry.

[0087] ***Explanation of Effects of the Present Embodiment*** In this embodiment, a shuttle operation control device has been described that is provided in a traffic control system used for train operation control and that controls shuttle operation that runs in both directions along the same travel route. The traffic control system according to this embodiment receives a command to implement shuttle operation, and can control train operation from the start to the end of efficient shuttle operation in accordance with predicted demand by time period / station interval / travel direction.

[0088] Fig. 17 is a diagram showing the effects of the traffic control system 1 according to this embodiment. As shown in Fig. 14, the traffic control system according to this embodiment can change the operation pattern taking into account changes in demand (actual demand) in the time period, between stations, and in both directions during shuttle operation. Therefore, the traffic control system according to this embodiment has the effect of realizing operations with high transport efficiency.

[0089] Embodiment 2 In this embodiment, differences from and additions to embodiment 1 will be mainly described. In this embodiment, components having the same functions as those in embodiment 1 will be assigned the same reference numerals, and descriptions thereof will be omitted.

[0090] In the first embodiment, a case has been described in which an operation pattern is determined for each predicted demand amount set in the operation control system 1. In the present embodiment, an example is shown in which an operation pattern can be reselected when a deviation in the predicted demand amount occurs in the operation control system 1. When a deviation in the predicted demand amount is detected, the operation pattern instruction unit is called again, and recalculation is performed starting from the selection of an operation pattern.

[0091] ***Description of Configuration*** Fig. 18 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of the traffic control system 1 according to this embodiment. In this embodiment, a demand deviation detection unit 20 is added to the configuration of the traffic control system 1 described in Fig. 1. The demand deviation detection unit 20 is made up of a predicted demand database 30 and a demand deviation determination unit 21.

[0092] The demand deviation detection unit 20 detects deviations between the acquired predicted demand (predicted demand database 30) for each time period / station / travel direction and the actual demand. For example, it detects that the actual demand has significantly deviated from the predicted demand at a certain time due to a sudden event.

[0093] FIG. 19 is a diagram illustrating an example of an outline of the operation of the demand deviation detection unit according to this embodiment. The demand deviation detection unit 20 compares the predicted demand for each time period / station interval / travel direction with the actual demand to detect the degree of deviation. Furthermore, if the degree of deviation is significant, the demand deviation detection unit 20 reacquires the predicted demand for each time period / station interval / travel direction. The method of calculating the degree of deviation may be a method of calculating the degree of deviation between the predicted demand and the actual measured value, taking into account the degree of station congestion, the number of people passing through the ticket gate, etc. Furthermore, the method of calculating the degree of deviation may be a method of calculating the degree of deviation between the predicted demand before and after updating the forecast of the predicted demand.

[0094] ***Explanation of Operation*** Fig. 20 is a flowchart showing a first example of the operation of the demand quantity deviation detection unit 20 according to this embodiment. Fig. 21 is a flowchart showing a second example of the operation of the demand quantity deviation detection unit 20 according to this embodiment. Figs. 20 and 21 show an algorithm of the demand quantity deviation detection unit 20 performed by the traffic control system 1. In the demand quantity deviation detection process, a demand quantity deviation detection method may be used in which the current demand quantity (train congestion rate, number of people passing through a ticket gate) is directly compared with the predicted demand quantity, as shown in Fig. 20. Alternatively, a method may be used in which the predicted demand quantity itself is recursively updated to detect the deviation, as shown in Fig. 21.

[0095] <<Demand Deviation Detection Process Example 1: FIG. 20 >> FIG. 20 illustrates a flowchart for detecting demand by directly comparing current demand with predicted demand. First, the demand deviation detection unit 20 acquires the latest predicted demand for each time period / station / travel direction (step S403). Next, the demand deviation detection unit 20 acquires the current train congestion rate and the number of people passing through the ticket gate to determine the current demand (step S404). The demand deviation detection unit 20 compares the current train congestion rate and the number of people passing through the ticket gate with the predicted demand (step S405). The demand deviation detection unit 20 then compares the actual demand with the predicted demand to calculate the deviation (step S406). The deviation may be calculated using Euclidean distance, Manhattan distance, cosine similarity, or the like.

[0096] The demand amount deviation detection unit 20 determines whether the deviation is equal to or smaller than the threshold (step S407). If the deviation is equal to or smaller than the threshold, the demand amount deviation detection unit 20 returns to step S403 after a certain time has elapsed (step S408). If the deviation is greater than the threshold, the demand amount deviation detection unit 20 immediately returns to step S403 and acquires the most recently predicted demand amount again.

[0097] <<Demand Deviation Detection Process Example 2: FIG. 21 >> FIG. 21 illustrates a flowchart for detecting the deviation degree by recursively updating the forecast demand itself. First, the demand deviation detection unit 20 acquires the latest forecast demand by time period / between stations / traveling direction (step S403). After a certain period of time has elapsed (step S408), the demand deviation detection unit 20 again acquires the forecast demand by time period / between stations / traveling direction (step S410). The demand deviation detection unit 20 compares the forecast demand by time period / between stations / traveling direction before and after the update (step S411). The demand deviation detection unit 20 calculates the deviation degree of the demand (step S406).

[0098] Then, the demand quantity deviation detection unit 20 determines whether the deviation is equal to or less than the threshold value (step S407). If the deviation is equal to or less than the threshold value, the demand quantity deviation detection unit 20 returns to step S403 after a certain time has elapsed (step S408). If the deviation is greater than the threshold value, the demand quantity deviation detection unit 20 returns to step S410 to again acquire the forecast demand quantity of the input value.

[0099] ***Explanation of Effects of the Present Embodiment*** Figure 22 is a diagram showing the effects of the traffic control system 1 according to this embodiment. In the traffic control system according to this embodiment, the effect of the demand deviation detection process is that even if a deviation occurs between predicted demand and actual demand due to an unexpected factor, the deviation can be detected and a traffic pattern can be reselected.

[0100] In the above first and second embodiments, each unit of each device in the traffic management system has been described as an independent functional block. However, the configuration of each device in the traffic management system does not have to be the same as the configuration in the above-described embodiments. The functional blocks of each device in the traffic management system may have any configuration as long as they can realize the functions described in the above-described embodiments. Furthermore, each device in the traffic management system may not be a single device, but may be a system composed of multiple devices. Furthermore, multiple parts of the first and second embodiments may be combined and implemented. Alternatively, only one part of these embodiments may be implemented. In addition, these embodiments may be combined in any way, either as a whole or in part. In other words, in the first and second embodiments, each embodiment may be freely combined, or any component of each embodiment may be modified, or any component of each embodiment may be omitted.

[0101] The above-described embodiments are essentially preferred examples and are not intended to limit the scope of the present disclosure, the scope of application of the present disclosure, or the scope of use of the present disclosure. The above-described embodiments can be modified in various ways as needed. For example, the procedures described using flow charts or sequence diagrams may be modified as appropriate.

[0102] Various aspects of the present disclosure are summarized below as appendices.

[0103] (Supplementary Note 1) A shuttle operation control device that controls operation of train shuttle operations, comprising: an operation pattern determination unit that acquires predicted demand for each time period / between stations / traveling direction, and determines an operation pattern that satisfies the predicted demand for each time period / between stations / traveling direction; an operation pattern switching unit that switches the operation patterns in response to changes in demand; and a shuttle operation evaluation unit that detects an operation efficiency evaluation of the operation pattern currently being performed and a time period during which demand changes, and outputs a switching notification. (Supplementary Note 2) The shuttle operation control device according to Supplementary Note 1, further comprising: a demand amount deviation detection unit that determines a deviation between the predicted demand for each time period / between stations / traveling direction and the actual demand, and updates the predicted demand for each time period / between stations / traveling direction when the deviation is equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold. (Supplementary Note 3) The shuttle operation control device according to Supplementary Note 1 or Supplementary Note 2, wherein the operation pattern determination unit determines a time period during which demand changes, starting from the time at which demand is maximum within the predicted time period, based on the time at which a set percentage has changed from the maximum demand. (Supplementary Note 4) The shuttle operation control device according to Supplementary Note 3, wherein the operation pattern determination unit calculates candidate operation patterns for each of the demand change time periods. (Supplementary Note 5) The shuttle operation control device according to Supplementary Note 4, wherein, after determining the candidate operation patterns, the operation pattern determination unit calculates one operation pattern for each of the demand change time periods, taking into account switching times between combinations and train stop times in the preceding and following demand change time periods. (Supplementary Note 6) The shuttle operation control device according to any one of Supplementary Note 3 to Supplementary Note 5, wherein the operation pattern switching unit outputs an operation pattern for the next demand change time period by referring to the operation patterns for each of the demand change time periods. (Supplementary Note 7) The shuttle operation control device according to Supplementary Note 6, wherein the shuttle operation evaluation unit evaluates the operation efficiency of the current operation pattern, detects demand change time periods, and outputs a switching command.(Supplementary Note 8) A traffic management method used in a traffic management system that controls the operation of train shuttle operations, wherein a computer acquires predicted demand by time period / between stations / traveling direction, and determines an operation pattern that satisfies the predicted demand by time period / between stations / traveling direction, and switches the operation patterns in response to changes in demand, and the computer detects time periods when an operation efficiency evaluation and demand change for the operation pattern currently in progress, and outputs a switch notification. (Supplementary Note 9) A traffic management program used in a traffic management system that controls the operation of train shuttle operations, wherein the program causes a computer to execute an operation pattern determination process that acquires predicted demand by time period / between stations / traveling direction, and determines an operation pattern that satisfies the predicted demand by time period / between stations / traveling direction, an operation pattern switching process that switches the operation patterns in response to changes in demand, and a shuttle operation evaluation process that detects time periods when an operation efficiency evaluation and demand change for the operation pattern currently in progress, and outputs a switch notification.

[0104] 1 Traffic management system, 2 Diagram-based traffic control device, 3 Shuttle operation control device, 11 Diagram-based traffic control unit, 12 Traffic disruption detection unit, 13 Response method determination unit, 14 Traffic rescheduling instruction unit, 15 Shuttle operation instruction unit, 16 Shuttle operation start unit, 17 Shuttle operation control unit, 18 Shuttle operation evaluation unit, 19 Shuttle operation end unit, 20 Demand deviation detection unit, 21 Demand deviation determination unit, 22 Operation pattern determination unit, 23 Operation pattern switching unit, 24 Train allocation unit, 30 Forecast demand database, 31 Shuttle operation section, 32 Train operation pattern set by dispatcher, 33 Out-of-service section, 34 Diagram delay time, 35 Location and failure details of failed train, 36 Location and accident details of accident train, 37 Demand change time zone, 111 Operation pattern candidate, 120 Operation pattern, 509 Demand change time zone, 80 Signal line, 909 Electronic circuit, 910 Processor, 921 memory, 922 auxiliary storage device, 930 input / output interface, 950 communication interface.

Claims

1. A shuttle operation control device that controls the operation of train shuttle operations, comprising: an operation pattern determination unit that acquires predicted demand by time period / station interval / travel direction and determines an operation pattern that satisfies the predicted demand by time period / station interval / travel direction; an operation pattern switching unit that switches the operation pattern in response to changes in demand; and a shuttle operation evaluation unit that detects an evaluation of the operation efficiency of the operation pattern currently in operation and time periods when demand changes, and outputs a switching notification.

2. The shuttle operation control device of claim 1, further comprising a demand deviation detection unit that determines the deviation between the predicted demand for each time period / station interval / travel direction and the actual demand, and updates the predicted demand for each time period / station interval / travel direction if the deviation is greater than or equal to a predetermined threshold.

3. A shuttle operation control device as described in claim 1 or claim 2, wherein the operation pattern determination unit determines the demand change time period based on the time at which the demand changes by a set percentage from the time at which the demand is greatest during the predicted time.

4. A shuttle operation control device according to claim 3, wherein the operation pattern determination unit calculates operation pattern candidates for each of the demand change time periods.

5. A shuttle operation control device as described in claim 4, wherein the operation pattern determination unit, after determining the operation pattern candidates, calculates one operation pattern for each demand change time period, taking into account the switching time between combinations and train stop times in the preceding and following demand change time periods.

6. A shuttle operation control device as described in any one of claims 3 to 5, wherein the operation pattern switching unit outputs the operation pattern for the next demand change time period by referring to the operation pattern for each demand change time period.

7. A shuttle operation control device according to claim 6, wherein the shuttle operation evaluation unit evaluates the operation efficiency of the current operation pattern, detects time periods when demand changes, and outputs a switching command.

8. An operation management method used in an operation management system that controls operation of train shuttle operations, in which a computer acquires predicted demand by time period / station interval / travel direction, determines an operation pattern that satisfies the predicted demand by time period / station interval / travel direction, switches the operation pattern in response to changes in demand, and detects time periods when the operation efficiency and demand change for the operation pattern currently being implemented, and outputs a switch notification.

9. An operation management program used in an operation management system that controls the operation of train shuttle operations, which causes a computer to execute an operation pattern determination process that obtains predicted demand by time period / station interval / travel direction and determines an operation pattern that satisfies the predicted demand by time period / station interval / travel direction; an operation pattern switching process that switches the operation pattern in response to changes in demand; and a shuttle operation evaluation process that evaluates the operation efficiency of the operation pattern currently in operation and detects time periods when demand changes, and outputs a switching notification.

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