Method and system for calculating probability of ship collision on offshore platform, processing equipment and storage medium

Abstract

The invention relates to an offshore platform ship collision probability calculation method and system, processing equipment and a storage medium. The method comprises the following steps: identifying an air route in a research range of a to-be-evaluated offshore platform; determining the ship traffic flow data of each identified air route, and carrying out statistics on the ship flow density of each air route in the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated; calculating the ship flow density of each section of the air route with the specified length in the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated; determining the corresponding ship flow occupied by the collision radius on each air route section in the research range of the to-be-evaluated offshore platform; calculating the probability of navigation lookout or early warning failure of the ship within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated; calculating the alarm failure probability of the offshore platform or the guard ship to be evaluated; according to the method, subjective deviation can be eliminated, objective analysis is realized, and the method can be widely applied to the field of safety production of offshore oil.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of safe production of offshore oil, and in particular to a method, system, processing equipment and storage medium for calculating the probability of an offshore platform being hit by a ship. Background Art

[0002] Currently, China's offshore waters are increasingly crowded with planned and customary shipping routes. In these densely intertwined waters, conflicts between maritime shipping and offshore oil development are becoming increasingly prominent. In the Bohai Sea region in particular, newly discovered and established offshore oil and gas fields are increasingly close to planned and customary shipping routes, increasing the likelihood of collisions with offshore oil and gas platforms. Offshore vessels are often massive, and a collision with an offshore platform can have devastating consequences. Therefore, assessing the risk of collisions between offshore platform locations and vessels in nearby shipping routes has become a crucial consideration in the planning and design of offshore oil development projects.

[0003] Some countries have long studied the risk of ship collisions with offshore oil and gas platforms. Historical accident statistics indicate that the probability of collisions with passing merchant ships on offshore platforms located on the UK Continental Shelf is 1.2E-3 per year. However, existing technologies for assessing the risk of ship collisions with offshore platforms focus solely on identifying and qualitatively evaluating the risk, failing to accurately and effectively quantify the probability of collisions with offshore platforms near shipping lanes. Summary of the Invention

[0004] In response to the above problems, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a method, system, processing equipment and storage medium for calculating the probability of an offshore platform being hit by a ship, which can accurately and effectively quantitatively analyze the probability of a ship colliding with an offshore platform near a waterway.

[0005] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions: In a first aspect, a method for calculating the probability of an offshore platform being hit by a ship is provided, comprising:

[0006] Identify routes within the study area of ​​the offshore platform to be assessed;

[0007] Determine the ship traffic flow data for each identified route and calculate the ship traffic density of each route within the study area of ​​the offshore platform to be evaluated;

[0008] Based on the statistical results of ship traffic density of each route, calculate the ship traffic density of each route section within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated;

[0009] According to the ship flow density of each route section, determine the corresponding ship flow in the area of ​​collision radius on each route section within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated;

[0010] Calculate the probability of failure of navigation lookout or warning for ships within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed;

[0011] Calculate the probability of failure of the offshore platform or guard ship to be assessed to issue an alarm;

[0012] The probability of ship collision on each route within the study range of the offshore platform to be assessed is determined based on the corresponding ship flow rate of the area of ​​collision radius on each route section within the study range of the offshore platform to be assessed, the probability of navigation lookout or warning failure of ships within the study range of the offshore platform to be assessed, and the probability of warning failure of the offshore platform to be assessed or the guard ship.

[0013] Furthermore, the identification of routes within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated includes identification of planned routes and identification of customary routes;

[0014] The planned route identification is to identify the planned route within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated from the route planning, and determine the coordinate position of the center line of the planned route relative to the offshore platform to be evaluated;

[0015] The customary route identification is to identify the customary route within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated from the ship track map, and determine the coordinate position of the center line of the customary route relative to the offshore platform to be evaluated.

[0016] Furthermore, the ship traffic density of each route section of a specified length within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated is calculated based on the statistical results of the ship traffic density of each route, including:

[0017] According to the ship traffic density of each route and the ship traffic flow data of each route section of the specified length of the route section, the ship traffic density of each route section of the specified length within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated is calculated, and the ship traffic density distribution curve of each route section within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated is obtained;

[0018] If the ship traffic flow data for each route section of the specified length cannot be obtained, it is assumed that the ship flow density within the route section follows a standard normal distribution from the route centerline to the route boundary, with the ship flow density at the centerline being the largest.

[0019] Furthermore, the ship flow density of each route section is determined based on the ship flow density of each route section, and the corresponding ship flow is determined by the collision radius of the offshore platform within the research range to be evaluated on each route section, including:

[0020] Calculate the projection of the platform to be evaluated on a certain route section and determine the relative position of the projection and the centerline of the route;

[0021] Determine the collision radius based on the calculated projection and the ship's width;

[0022] Based on the ship traffic density distribution curve of each route section within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed, the projection of the platform to be assessed on the route section, and the relative position of the projection and the centerline of the route, determine the proportion of the area of ​​the collision radius on the route section to the ship traffic density of the route section;

[0023] Reselect a certain route section for calculation until the corresponding ship flow rate of the area of ​​collision radius on each route section within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated is obtained.

[0024] Furthermore, the probability P1 of the navigation observation or warning failure is:

[0025] P1=P 雷达失效 ×Pais invalid+P 饮酒 +P 生病 +P 离岗

[0026] Among them, P 雷达失效 is the probability of radar failure; Pais failure is the probability of AIS system failure; P 饮酒 The probability of a person drinking alcohol; P 生病 is the probability of a person getting sick; P 离岗 The probability of staff leaving their jobs.

[0027] Furthermore, the probability P2 of the failure of the offshore platform or guard ship to be evaluated to issue an alarm is:

[0028] P2=(Pais invalid + Pais valid × P 无线电失效 )×(P 守护船不在范围内 +P 守护船在范围内

[0029] ×P 雾笛或鸣笛失效 )

[0030] Where Pais is the probability that the AIS system is effective; P 无线电失效 is the probability of radio failure; P 守护船不在范围内 is the probability that the guard ship is not within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed; P 守护船在范围内 is the probability that the guard ship is within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed; P 雾笛或鸣笛失效 The probability that the foghorn or guard ship horn will fail.

[0031] Furthermore, the probability P of collision between ships in each route within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated is 总 for:

[0032] P 总 =X×Y×P1×P2

[0033] Where x is the number of ships within the study range of the offshore platform to be assessed; Y is the corresponding ship flow rate of the area of ​​collision radius on each route section within the study range of the offshore platform to be assessed.

[0034] In a second aspect, a system for calculating the probability of collision between an offshore platform and a ship is provided, comprising:

[0035] Identification module, used to identify routes within the study range of the offshore platform to be assessed;

[0036] The statistical module is used to determine the ship traffic flow data of each identified route and to calculate the ship traffic density of each route within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated;

[0037] The ship traffic density calculation module is used to calculate the ship traffic density of each route section within the specified length of the route section within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated based on the ship traffic density statistics of each route;

[0038] The ship flow ratio determination module is used to determine the ship flow ratio of the area within the collision radius of the offshore platform to be evaluated on each route section according to the ship flow density of each route section;

[0039] The first probability calculation module is used to calculate the probability of failure of navigation observation or early warning of ships within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated;

[0040] The second probability calculation module is used to calculate the probability of failure of the offshore platform or guard ship to be assessed to issue an alarm;

[0041] The ship collision probability calculation module is used to determine the probability of ship collision on each route within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated based on the corresponding ship flow in the area of ​​the collision radius on each route section within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated, the probability of navigation lookout or warning failure of ships within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated, and the probability of warning failure of the offshore platform to be evaluated or the guard ship.

[0042] According to a third aspect, a processing device is provided, comprising computer program instructions, wherein when the computer program instructions are executed by the processing device, the computer program instructions are used to implement the steps corresponding to the above-mentioned method for assessing the probability of collision between an offshore platform and an uncontrolled ship.

[0043] In a fourth aspect, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, on which computer program instructions are stored, wherein the computer program instructions, when executed by a processor, are used to implement the steps corresponding to the above-mentioned method for assessing the probability of collision between an offshore platform and an uncontrolled ship.

[0044] The present invention has the following advantages due to the adoption of the above technical solution:

[0045] 1. Traditional qualitative evaluation relies on personal experience, which may lead to inconsistent results. However, this invention can eliminate subjective bias and achieve objective analysis through mathematical models, data indicators and algorithms.

[0046] 2. The present invention defines quantitative collision parameters and establishes a standardized evaluation system to facilitate horizontal comparison of different scenarios or platforms.

[0047] In summary, the present invention can be widely used in the field of offshore oil production safety. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0048] Various other advantages and benefits will become apparent to those skilled in the art upon reading the detailed description of the preferred embodiment below. The accompanying drawings are for illustration purposes only and are not to be considered as limiting the present invention. Throughout the drawings, the same reference numerals are used to denote the same components. In the drawings:

[0049] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of a method provided by one embodiment of the present invention;

[0050] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of calculating the probability of an offshore platform being hit by a ship, provided by one embodiment of the present invention;

[0051] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of an accident tree for calculating the probability of alarm or warning failure provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0052] Exemplary embodiments of the present invention will be described in more detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Although exemplary embodiments of the present invention are shown in the accompanying drawings, it should be understood that the present invention can be implemented in various forms and should not be limited by the embodiments set forth herein. Rather, these embodiments are provided to enable a more thorough understanding of the present invention and to fully convey the scope of the present invention to those skilled in the art.

[0053] It should be understood that the terms used herein are for the purpose of describing specific example embodiments only and are not intended to be limiting. Unless the context clearly indicates otherwise, the singular forms "one", "an" and "said" as used herein may also be meant to include plural forms. The terms "comprise", "include", "contain" and "have" are inclusive and therefore specify the presence of stated features, steps, operations, elements and / or parts, but do not exclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, steps, operations, elements, parts, and / or combinations thereof. The method steps, processes, and operations described herein are not to be construed as necessarily requiring them to be performed in the specific order described or illustrated, unless the order of execution is clearly indicated. It should also be understood that additional or alternative steps may be used.

[0054] Although the terms first, second, third, etc. can be used in the text to describe multiple elements, components, regions, layers and / or sections, these elements, components, regions, layers and / or sections should not be limited by these terms. These terms can only be used to distinguish an element, component, region, layer or section from another region, layer or section. Unless the context clearly indicates otherwise, terms such as "first", "second" and other numerical terms do not imply order or sequence when used in the text. Therefore, the first element, component, region, layer or section discussed below can be referred to as the second element, component, region, layer or section without departing from the teaching of the example embodiments.

[0055] In the current existing technology, the risk assessment of offshore platforms being hit by ships only stays at the identification and qualitative evaluation of the risk of ship collision, and is unable to accurately and effectively quantitatively analyze the probability of ships colliding with offshore platforms near shipping routes. An embodiment of the present invention provides a method for calculating the probability of an offshore platform being collided with a ship, comprising: identifying routes within a research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated; determining ship traffic flow data for each identified route, and statistically analyzing the ship flow density of each route within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated; calculating the ship flow density of each route section of a specified length within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated based on the statistical results of the ship flow density of each route; determining, based on the ship flow density of each route section, a corresponding ship flow occupied by an area within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated within a collision radius on each route section; calculating the probability of a navigation lookout or warning failure of ships within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated; calculating the probability of a warning failure of the offshore platform to be evaluated or a guard ship; and determining the probability of a ship collision on each route within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated based on the corresponding ship flow occupied by an area within the collision radius on each route section, the probability of a navigation lookout or warning failure of ships within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated, and the probability of a warning failure of the offshore platform to be evaluated or a guard ship. The present invention sequentially performs the following steps: identifying routes near offshore platforms, counting ship traffic along the routes, estimating ship traffic density in route sections, estimating the proportion of ship traffic projected by the platform collision radius onto the route section, calculating the probability of failure of ship navigation observation or early warning, calculating the probability of failure of platform or guard ship warning, and calculating the cumulative frequency of ship collisions with platforms across multiple routes. Ultimately, the probability of a ship collision with an offshore platform near a route is calculated. This method can be used to calculate the probability of a ship collision with an offshore platform located near an offshore route, thereby quantitatively assessing the risk of a ship collision with an offshore platform. During the planning and design phase of offshore oilfield development, the present invention can effectively assess the risk of a ship collision with an offshore platform near a route, providing a basis for the safe site selection of offshore platforms.

[0056] Example 1

[0057] like Figure 1 As shown, this embodiment provides a method for calculating the probability of an offshore platform being hit by a ship, comprising the following steps:

[0058] 1) Identify the routes within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed, specifically:

[0059] 1.1) Define the research scope centered on the offshore platform to be assessed.

[0060] It should be noted that the research scope can be determined according to the circumstances, and generally the research scope is 10 nautical miles centered on the offshore platform.

[0061] 1.2) Identify the routes within the study area of ​​the offshore platform to be assessed.

[0062] Specifically, identification includes planned route identification and customary route identification.

[0063] More specifically, planned route identification is to identify the planned route within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated from the route planning, and determine the coordinate position of the center line of the planned route relative to the offshore platform to be evaluated; customary route identification is to identify the customary route within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated from the ship track map, and determine the coordinate position of the center line of the customary route relative to the offshore platform to be evaluated.

[0064] It should be noted that the centerline of a route is the line connecting the points of maximum vessel traffic density within two selected route sections. Its width is determined to cover at least 80% of the vessel traffic, and the route boundaries are defined by a certain vessel traffic density. Based on the coordinate position of the route centerline relative to the offshore platform to be assessed, an identification map of planned and customary routes within the study area of ​​the offshore platform to be assessed is drawn.

[0065] 2) Determine the ship traffic flow data for each identified route and calculate the ship traffic density of each route within the study range of the offshore platform to be evaluated.

[0066] Specifically, the ship traffic flow data of each route identified in step 1) is obtained using the Automatic Identification System (AIS), and the ship flow density of each route and the ship traffic flow data of each section of a specified length of the route section (for example, 1 nautical mile) are statistically calculated.

[0067] 3) Based on the statistical results of the ship traffic density of each route, the ship traffic density of each route section of the specified length within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated is calculated to obtain the ship traffic density distribution curve of each route section within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated.

[0068] Specifically, based on the ship traffic density of each route and the ship traffic flow data of each route section of the specified length of the route section, the ship traffic density of each route section of the specified length within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated is calculated, and the ship traffic density distribution curve of each route section within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated is obtained.

[0069] More specifically, if the ship traffic flow data for each route section of the specified length cannot be obtained, it is assumed that the ship flow density within the route section follows a standard normal distribution from the route centerline to the route boundary, and the ship flow density at the centerline is the largest.

[0070] 4) Based on the ship traffic density of each route section, determine the corresponding ship traffic volume of the area within the collision radius of the offshore platform to be evaluated on each route section, specifically:

[0071] 4.1) Calculate the projection of the platform to be evaluated on a certain route section and determine the relative position of the projection to the centerline of the route.

[0072] 4.2) Determine the collision radius based on the calculated projection and the ship width.

[0073] Specifically, the collision radius is the sum of the projection of the platform to be evaluated on a certain route section and the width of the ship.

[0074] 4.3) Based on the ship traffic density distribution curve of each route section within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed obtained in step 3), the projection of the platform to be assessed on the route section, and the relative position of the projection and the centerline of the route, determine the proportion of the area of ​​the collision radius on the route section to the ship traffic density of the route section. Figure 2 Figure 2 shows a schematic diagram of a model for calculating the probability of an offshore platform being hit by a ship.

[0075] 4.4) Reselect a route section and go to step 4.1) until the corresponding ship flow rate of the area of ​​collision radius on each route section within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated is obtained.

[0076] 5) Calculate the probability of failure of navigation lookout or warning for ships within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated.

[0077] Specifically, using methods such as accident trees or event trees, the probability of navigational lookout or warning failure for ships within the scope of the offshore platform being evaluated is calculated by comprehensively considering factors such as severe weather (such as fog at sea), human factors (such as drowsiness, illness, and alcohol consumption), and radar warning failures (radar failure or improper use). This calculation can be performed using an event tree.

[0078] More specifically, Figure 3As shown in Figure 1, the probability calculation process using the event tree method is as follows: The probability P1 of navigation lookout or warning failure is:

[0079] P1=P 雷达失效 ×Pais invalid+P 饮酒 +P 生病 +P 离岗 (1)

[0080] Among them, P 雷达失效 is the probability of radar failure; Pais failure is the probability of AIS system failure; P 饮酒 The probability of a person drinking alcohol; P 生病 is the probability of a person getting sick; P 离岗 The probability of staff leaving their jobs.

[0081] 6) Calculate the probability of failure of the offshore platform or guard ship to be assessed to issue an alarm.

[0082] Specifically, the probability P2 of the failure of the offshore platform or the guard ship to issue an alarm is calculated by using methods such as the accident tree or event tree, taking into account the AIS system (Automatic Identification System), radio communication, whether the guard ship is within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed, and the sounding of the fog horn or the guard ship's horn.

[0083] P2=(Pais invalid + Pais valid × P 无线电失效 )×(P 守护船不在范围内 +P 守护船在范围内 ×

[0084] P 雾笛或鸣笛失效 ) (2)

[0085] Where Pais is the probability that the AIS system is effective; P 无线电失效 is the probability of radio failure; P 守护船不在范围内 is the probability that the guard ship is not within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed; P 守护船在范围内 is the probability that the guard ship is within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed; P 雾笛或鸣笛失效 The probability that the foghorn or guard ship horn will fail.

[0086] 7) According to the ship flow Y corresponding to the collision radius of the offshore platform to be evaluated on each route section, the probability P1 of the failure of navigation observation or warning of the ship within the offshore platform to be evaluated, and the probability P2 of the failure of the offshore platform to be evaluated or the guard ship to give an alarm, the probability P of the collision of the ship on each route within the offshore platform to be evaluated is determined. 总 for:

[0087] P 总 =X×Y×P1×P2 (3)

[0088] Where X is the number of ships within the study range of the offshore platform to be assessed.

[0089] Example 2

[0090] This embodiment provides a system for calculating the probability of an offshore platform being hit by a ship, including:

[0091] Identification module, used to identify routes within the study range of the offshore platform to be assessed;

[0092] The statistical module is used to determine the ship traffic flow data of each identified route and to calculate the ship traffic density of each route within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated;

[0093] The ship traffic density calculation module is used to calculate the ship traffic density of each route section within the specified length of the route section within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated based on the ship traffic density statistics of each route;

[0094] The ship flow ratio determination module is used to determine the ship flow ratio of the area within the collision radius of the offshore platform to be evaluated on each route section according to the ship flow density of each route section;

[0095] The first probability calculation module is used to calculate the probability of failure of navigation observation or early warning of ships within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated;

[0096] The second probability calculation module is used to calculate the probability of failure of the offshore platform or guard ship to be assessed to issue an alarm;

[0097] The ship collision probability calculation module is used to determine the probability of ship collision on each route within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated based on the corresponding ship flow in the area of ​​the collision radius on each route section within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated, the probability of navigation lookout or warning failure of ships within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated, and the probability of warning failure of the offshore platform to be evaluated or the guard ship.

[0098] The system provided in this embodiment is used to execute the above-mentioned method embodiments. Please refer to the above-mentioned embodiments for specific processes and detailed contents, which will not be repeated here.

[0099] Example 3

[0100] This embodiment provides a processing device corresponding to the method for calculating the probability of an offshore platform being collided with a ship provided in Example 1. The processing device can be applicable to a client processing device, such as a mobile phone, laptop computer, tablet computer, desktop computer, etc., to execute the method of Example 1.

[0101] The processing device includes a processor, a memory, a communication interface, and a bus. The processor, memory, and communication interface are connected via the bus to facilitate communication between them. The memory stores a computer program executable on the processing device. When the processing device executes the computer program, it executes the method for calculating the probability of collision between an offshore platform and a ship, as provided in Example 1.

[0102] In some implementations, the memory may be a high-speed random access memory (RAM), and may also include a non-volatile memory, such as at least one disk storage.

[0103] In other implementations, the processor may be a central processing unit (CPU), a digital signal processor (DSP), or other general-purpose processors, which are not limited herein.

[0104] In addition, the logical instructions in the above-mentioned memory can be implemented in the form of a software functional unit and can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium when sold or used as an independent product. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of the present invention, or the part that contributes to the prior art, or the part of the technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product. The computer software product is stored in a storage medium and includes several instructions for enabling a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to execute all or part of the steps of the method described in each embodiment of the present invention. The aforementioned storage medium includes: various media that can store program codes, such as a USB flash drive, a mobile hard disk, a read-only memory (ROM), a random access memory (RAM), a magnetic disk or an optical disk.

[0105] Those skilled in the art will understand that the structure of the above-mentioned computing device is only a partial structure related to the solution of the present invention and does not constitute a limitation on the computing device to which the solution of the present invention is applied. The specific computing device may include more or fewer components, or combine certain components, or have a different component arrangement.

[0106] Example 4

[0107] This embodiment provides a computer program product corresponding to the method for calculating the probability of an offshore platform being collided with a ship provided in Example 1. The computer program product may include a computer-readable storage medium carrying computer-readable program instructions for executing the method for calculating the probability of an offshore platform being collided with a ship described in Example 1.

[0108] Computer readable storage media can be tangible devices that hold and store instructions used by instruction execution devices. Computer readable storage media can be, for example, but not limited to, electronic storage devices, magnetic storage devices, optical storage devices, electromagnetic storage devices, semiconductor storage devices, or any combination thereof.

[0109] The above embodiment provides a computer-readable storage medium, whose implementation principle and technical effects are similar to those of the above method embodiment, and will not be repeated here.

[0110] The present invention is described with reference to flowcharts and / or block diagrams of methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that each process and / or block in the flowcharts and / or block diagrams, as well as combinations of processes and / or blocks in the flowcharts and / or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to produce a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowcharts and / or block diagrams. Figure 1 a process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0111] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing device to work in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 a process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The function specified in one or more boxes.

[0112] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operational steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing the instructions executed on the computer or other programmable device for implementing the process. Figure 1 a process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A step that specifies a function in one or more boxes.

[0113] The above embodiments are only used to illustrate the present invention, wherein the structure, connection mode and manufacturing process of each component can be changed. Any equivalent transformations and improvements based on the technical solution of the present invention should not be excluded from the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for calculating the probability of an offshore platform being hit by a ship, characterized in that: include: Identify routes within the study area of ​​the offshore platform to be assessed; Determine the ship traffic flow data for each identified route and calculate the ship traffic density of each route within the study area of ​​the offshore platform to be evaluated; Based on the statistical results of ship traffic density of each route, calculate the ship traffic density of each route section within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated; According to the ship flow density of each route section, determine the corresponding ship flow in the area of ​​collision radius on each route section within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated; Calculate the probability of failure of navigation lookout or warning for ships within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed; Calculate the probability of failure of the offshore platform or guard ship to be assessed to issue an alarm; The probability of ship collision on each route within the study range of the offshore platform to be assessed is determined based on the corresponding ship flow rate of the area of ​​collision radius on each route section within the study range of the offshore platform to be assessed, the probability of navigation lookout or warning failure of ships within the study range of the offshore platform to be assessed, and the probability of warning failure of the offshore platform to be assessed or the guard ship.

2. The method for calculating the probability of an offshore platform being hit by a ship according to claim 1, wherein: The identification of routes within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed includes identification of planned routes and identification of customary routes; The planned route identification is to identify the planned route within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated from the route planning, and determine the coordinate position of the center line of the planned route relative to the offshore platform to be evaluated; The customary route identification is to identify the customary route within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated from the ship track map, and determine the coordinate position of the center line of the customary route relative to the offshore platform to be evaluated.

3. The method for calculating the probability of an offshore platform being hit by a ship according to claim 1, wherein: The ship traffic density of each route section within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated is calculated based on the statistical results of the ship traffic density of each route section, including: According to the ship traffic density of each route and the ship traffic flow data of each route section of the specified length of the route section, the ship traffic density of each route section of the specified length within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated is calculated, and the ship traffic density distribution curve of each route section within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated is obtained; If the ship traffic flow data for each route section of the specified length cannot be obtained, it is assumed that the ship flow density within the route section follows a standard normal distribution from the route centerline to the route boundary, with the ship flow density at the centerline being the largest.

4. The method for calculating the probability of an offshore platform being hit by a ship according to claim 3, wherein: The ship flow density of each route section is determined based on the ship flow density of each route section, and the corresponding ship flow is determined by the collision radius of the offshore platform within the research range to be evaluated on each route section, including: Calculate the projection of the platform to be evaluated on a certain route section and determine the relative position of the projection and the centerline of the route; Determine the collision radius based on the calculated projection and the ship's width; Based on the ship traffic density distribution curve of each route section within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed, the projection of the platform to be assessed on the route section, and the relative position of the projection and the centerline of the route, determine the proportion of the area of ​​the collision radius on the route section to the ship traffic density of the route section; Reselect a certain route section for calculation until the corresponding ship flow rate of the area of ​​collision radius on each route section within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated is obtained.

5. The method for calculating the probability of an offshore platform being hit by a ship according to claim 1, wherein: The probability P1 of failure of navigation lookout or warning is: P1=P 雷达失效 ×Pais invalid+P 饮酒 +P 生病 +P 离岗 Among them, P 雷达失效 is the probability of radar failure; Pais failure is the probability of AIS system failure; P 饮酒 The probability of a person drinking alcohol; P 生病 is the probability of a person getting sick; P 离岗 The probability of staff leaving their jobs.

6. The method for calculating the probability of an offshore platform being hit by a ship according to claim 5, wherein: The probability P2 of the failure of the offshore platform or guard ship to be assessed to issue an alarm is: P2=(Pais invalid + Pais valid × P 无线电失效 )×(P 守护船不在范围内 +P 守护船在范围内 ×P 雾笛或鸣笛失效 ) Where Pais is the probability that the AIS system is effective; P 无线电失效 is the probability of radio failure; P 守护船不在范围内 is the probability that the guard ship is not within the research scope of the offshore platform to be assessed; P 守护船在范围内 is the probability that the guard ship is within the research range of the offshore platform to be assessed; P 雾笛或鸣笛失效 The probability that the foghorn or guard ship horn will fail.

7. The method for calculating the probability of an offshore platform being hit by a ship according to claim 6, wherein: The probability P of collision between ships in each route within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated is 总 for: P 总 =X×Y×P1×P2 Where X is the number of ships within the study range of the offshore platform to be assessed; Y is the corresponding ship flow rate of the area of ​​collision radius on each route section within the study range of the offshore platform to be assessed.

8. A system for calculating the probability of an offshore platform being hit by a ship, characterized in that: include: Identification module, used to identify routes within the study range of the offshore platform to be assessed; The statistical module is used to determine the ship traffic flow data of each identified route and to calculate the ship traffic density of each route within the research scope of the offshore platform to be evaluated; The ship traffic density calculation module is used to calculate the ship traffic density of each route section within the specified length of the route section within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated based on the ship traffic density statistics of each route; The ship flow ratio determination module is used to determine the ship flow ratio of the area within the collision radius of the offshore platform to be evaluated on each route section according to the ship flow density of each route section; The first probability calculation module is used to calculate the probability of failure of navigation observation or early warning of ships within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated; The second probability calculation module is used to calculate the probability of failure of the offshore platform or guard ship to be assessed to issue an alarm; The ship collision probability calculation module is used to determine the probability of ship collision on each route within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated based on the corresponding ship flow in the area of ​​the collision radius on each route section within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated, the probability of navigation lookout or warning failure of ships within the research range of the offshore platform to be evaluated, and the probability of warning failure of the offshore platform to be evaluated or the guard ship.

9. A processing device, characterized in that: The method comprises computer program instructions, wherein when the computer program instructions are executed by a processing device, they are used to implement the steps corresponding to the method for assessing the probability of collision of an offshore platform with an uncontrolled ship according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that The computer-readable storage medium stores computer program instructions, wherein the computer program instructions, when executed by a processor, are used to implement steps corresponding to the method for assessing the probability of collision of an offshore platform with an uncontrolled vessel according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

Images