A comprehensive analysis method and system for offshore renewable energy development

Abstract

The application discloses a kind of offshore renewable energy development comprehensive analysis method and system, the method constructs the evaluation index system of renewable energy;According to the evaluation index system of renewable energy and influencing factors, the importance analysis and evaluation result is obtained by using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to offshore renewable energy development;Determine energy supply and demand state and functional zoning;Based on the importance analysis and evaluation result, and according to energy supply and demand state and functional zoning, the comprehensive analysis result of renewable energy development is obtained by comprehensive analysis of renewable energy development.This application can significantly improve energy utilization efficiency, reduce cost, improve system reliability and safety, while promoting technological innovation and standardization, enhance environmental and social benefits.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of comprehensive energy analysis technology, and in particular to a comprehensive analysis method and system for the development of offshore renewable energy. Background Technology

[0002] The energy development structure ratio is a crucial issue for its optimization. This paper analyzes the economic and environmental constraints that need to be considered in the structural optimization of offshore renewable energy and non-renewable energy development, and proposes a comprehensive evaluation method for offshore renewable energy development. The standardized comprehensive evaluation score reflects the development prospects of various offshore renewable energy sources; those with higher scores have greater future development potential. The key question is how to quantitatively determine the specific development ratios of various offshore renewable energy sources with different prospects, and under the control of various constraints, maximize the combined evaluation score of future offshore renewable energy development.

[0003] Problems encountered during analysis: Extreme weather: Offshore facilities need to withstand extreme weather conditions such as typhoons, tsunamis, and strong winds. This requires equipment with extremely high structural strength and durability. The salt in seawater can cause severe corrosion of metal structures, affecting the lifespan and reliability of the equipment. Therefore, corrosion-resistant materials and coating technologies are required. Wind turbines: Offshore wind turbines require special designs to adapt to the marine environment, including larger blades, more robust foundations, and taller towers. Wave energy converters need to be able to effectively capture wave energy and convert it into electricity while resisting wave impact. Tidal power generation devices need to be able to operate stably in strong currents and cope with complex seabed topography. The installation of offshore facilities requires specialized vessels and equipment, and the operating window is limited by weather conditions. For example, the installation of offshore wind farms requires large crane vessels and piling vessels. The maintenance of offshore facilities is difficult, requiring regular inspections and maintenance, but the high operation and maintenance costs are a significant issue. In addition, the safety risks of offshore operations are also high. Offshore facilities are usually far from land, and power transmission needs to be carried out through submarine cables, which increases transmission costs and losses. The laying and maintenance of submarine cables also require advanced technology and incur high costs. Offshore renewable energy sources (such as wind power) are highly volatile, necessitating advanced grid management and energy storage technologies to ensure the stability and reliability of the power system. This includes smart grid technologies and battery energy storage systems.

[0004] It is not possible to effectively evaluate the development of offshore renewable energy. Summary of the Invention

[0005] The present invention aims to at least partially solve one of the technical problems in the related art.

[0006] To address this, a comprehensive analytical method for offshore renewable energy development was designed. This method aims to improve energy efficiency and reduce construction and operating costs through detailed resource assessments and environmental analyses. It selects the most suitable sea areas for construction, avoiding high-risk areas (such as geologically unstable or ecologically sensitive zones), thereby reducing construction difficulty and costs.

[0007] To achieve the above objectives, another aspect of the present invention proposes a comprehensive analysis system for the development of offshore renewable energy.

[0008] To achieve the above objectives, this invention proposes a comprehensive analysis method for the development of offshore renewable energy, comprising:

[0009] Construct an evaluation index system for renewable energy;

[0010] Based on the evaluation index system and influencing factors of renewable energy, the importance of offshore renewable energy development was analyzed and evaluated using the fuzzy hierarchical analysis method, and the results of the importance analysis were obtained.

[0011] Determine the energy supply and demand status and functional zoning;

[0012] Based on the importance analysis and evaluation results, and in accordance with the energy supply and demand status and functional zoning, a comprehensive analysis of renewable energy development is obtained.

[0013] To achieve the above objectives, a second aspect of this application provides a comprehensive analysis system for offshore renewable energy development, comprising:

[0014] The indicator system construction module is used to construct an evaluation indicator system for renewable energy.

[0015] The importance analysis module is used to conduct importance analysis and evaluation of offshore renewable energy development based on the evaluation index system and influencing factors of renewable energy, and obtain the importance analysis and evaluation results.

[0016] The status and zoning determination module is used to determine the energy supply and demand status and functional zoning;

[0017] The comprehensive analysis module is used to conduct a comprehensive analysis of renewable energy development based on the importance analysis and evaluation results, and according to the energy supply and demand status and functional zoning, to obtain the comprehensive analysis results of renewable energy development.

[0018] The comprehensive analysis method and system for offshore renewable energy development presented in this invention can significantly improve energy efficiency, reduce costs, and enhance system reliability and safety. Simultaneously, it promotes technological innovation and standardization, strengthens environmental and social benefits, and garners policy and market support. These technological effects not only improve the economic benefits of projects but also promote the sustainable development of the entire industry.

[0019] Additional aspects and advantages of the invention will be set forth in part in the description which follows, and in part will be obvious from the description, or may be learned by practice of the invention. Attached Figure Description

[0020] The above and / or additional aspects and advantages of the present invention will become apparent and readily understood from the following description of the embodiments taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, wherein:

[0021] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of a comprehensive analysis method for offshore renewable energy development according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0022] Figure 2 This is a graph showing the trend of electricity generation and consumption in Dalian City from 2001 to 2011 according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0023] Figure 3 This is a graph of the fitting function according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0024] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram illustrating the CO2 emissions throughout the entire life cycle of various renewable energy sources according to embodiments of the present invention;

[0025] Figure 5 This is a schematic diagram illustrating the comprehensive evaluation results of non-renewable energy development according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0026] Figure 6 This is a flowchart of a comprehensive analysis system for the development of offshore renewable energy according to an embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0027] It should be noted that, unless otherwise specified, the embodiments and features described in the present invention can be combined with each other. The present invention will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0028] To enable those skilled in the art to better understand the present invention, the technical solutions of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings of the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort should fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0029] The following description, with reference to the accompanying drawings, illustrates a comprehensive analysis method and system for offshore renewable energy development based on embodiments of the present invention.

[0030] Figure 1This is a flowchart of a comprehensive analysis method for offshore renewable energy development according to an embodiment of the present invention, such as... Figure 1 As shown, the method includes:

[0031] S1, Construct an evaluation index system for renewable energy;

[0032] S2, Based on the evaluation index system and influencing factors of renewable energy, the importance analysis and evaluation results of offshore renewable energy development are obtained by using the fuzzy hierarchical analysis method.

[0033] S3, determine the energy supply and demand status and functional zoning;

[0034] S4. Based on the importance analysis and evaluation results, and according to the energy supply and demand status and functional zoning, a comprehensive analysis of renewable energy development is conducted to obtain the comprehensive analysis results of renewable energy development.

[0035] In this embodiment of the invention, the scheme is analyzed and evaluated based on the constructed evaluation index system.

[0036] (1) Energy conversion efficiency

[0037] ① Fan utilization rate. Fan utilization rate mainly considers the impact of factors such as the maintenance and failure of fans, power transmission lines, and electrical equipment on fan availability. Generally, routine maintenance and repairs are arranged during periods of low wind to improve fan utilization rate, which is taken as 95%.

[0038] ② Impact of climate factors. The impact of severe weather on wind turbine operation is considered at 4%.

[0039] ③ Wind turbine power curve. Manufacturers typically guarantee a 95% power curve for wind turbine generators.

[0040] ④ Wind turbine wake effect. Based on the wind turbine layout and the thrust curve of the wind turbine units used, the wake effect between wind turbines was calculated using WAsP8.4 software, and the energy loss was approximately 6.4%.

[0041] ⑤ Influence of control and turbulence intensity. A preliminary consideration is to use a 4% reduction factor for control and turbulence intensity.

[0042] ⑥ Blade contamination and corrosion: This wind farm is located by the sea, and salt spray pollution causes significant corrosion to the surface of the wind turbine blades, affecting their aerodynamic characteristics. A preliminary consideration is a blade contamination and corrosion reduction factor of 6%.

[0043] ⑦ Air density correction. Calculated as follows: Density correction factor = Average air density (The annual average air density at the turbine installation height of this wind farm is approximately 1.204 kg / m²). 3 ) / Standard air density (1.225 kg / m³) 3), with air density corrected by 98.2%.

[0044] ⑧ Energy loss within the wind farm. Energy loss within the wind farm is taken as 3%.

[0045] Taking Scheme 1 as an example, the wind turbine utilization rate is taken as 95%; the impact of severe weather is taken as 4%; the guarantee rate of the generator power curve is 95%; the energy loss due to wind farm wake is approximately 6.4%; the control and turbulence intensity reduction factor is taken as 4%; the blade contamination and corrosion reduction factor is 6%; and the annual average air density at the turbine installation height is approximately 1.204 kg / m³. 3 The density correction is taken as 98.2%; the power line and equipment loss in the field is about 3%; the wind turbine can obtain a maximum power of 59.3% of the theoretical power. Therefore, the energy conversion efficiency of Scheme 1 is 95%×96%×95%×94.6%×96%×94%×98.2×97%×59.3%=41.5%.

[0046] (2) Technology maturity

[0047] Dalian's wind power generation is small and negligible compared to the city's total power generation. It lags far behind regions with faster development of offshore wind energy abroad, and is also significantly behind coastal cities such as Shandong, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang. Therefore, its technological maturity needs further development.

[0048] (3) Electricity generation cost

[0049] Referring to the project cost calculation methods in engineering economics, the general formula for calculating the cost of renewable energy power generation is as follows:

[0050]

[0051] C represents the cost of electricity generation, and A represents the annual depreciation of the project investment (in ten thousand yuan). M—Annual operating and maintenance costs (ten thousand yuan); T—Annual employee wages, benefits and other expenses (ten thousand yuan); P—Total fixed asset investment (ten thousand yuan); F—Net residual value of fixed assets (ten thousand yuan); n—Depreciation period (years).

[0052] The main considerations include depreciation, maintenance, employee wages and benefits, other expenses, and interest payments related to fixed asset investment. Fixed asset investment in offshore wind farms includes electromechanical equipment and installation, construction, and other costs. Wind turbine equipment accounts for nearly 50%, wind turbine foundations for nearly 20%, and wind turbine installation and cabling each account for 4.5%-6%. Taking Scheme 1 as an example, the total cost over 25 years of operation is 442,317,300 yuan, with an annual power generation of 262.62 million kWh.

[0053] Therefore, the power generation cost is 0.674 yuan / kWh, which indicates that it has great economic development potential.

[0054] (4) Installed capacity

[0055] In recent years, the mainstream turbine models installed and in operation in overseas offshore wind farms have capacities of 2.0MW, 2.3MW, and...

[0056] 3.0MW, 3.6MW, and even 5MW models have been launched in recent years. The Shanghai Donghai Bridge 100,000-kilowatt project uses 34 3MW offshore wind turbines, so the selection of offshore wind turbines tends to favor large-capacity units.

[0057] (5) Distance from the load center

[0058] Site No. 1 is slightly closer to the electricity consumption area of ​​Dalian City. Overall, the three schemes are not much different, and the grid connection transmission distance is within an acceptable range.

[0059] (6) Developable resources

[0060] Dalian is surrounded by the sea on three sides, with a long coastline and abundant nearshore wind resources. There are 5,000 hours of moderate wind speeds greater than or equal to 3 meters per second annually, and 3,000 hours of moderate wind speeds greater than or equal to 6 meters per second annually. Therefore, Dalian has enormous potential for offshore wind energy development in the future, but it is necessary to avoid conflicts with the development of other marine resources and to plan rationally.

[0061] (7) Energy stability

[0062] Because the surface roughness of the ocean is much smaller than that of land, the annual effective hours of sites 1 and 2 are both over 6,500 hours, accounting for more than 70% of the year, and the stability is better, much higher than that of onshore wind power. However, the Dalian area is affected by an average of one typhoon per year, which will have an impact on the wind farm.

[0063] (8) CO2 emissions

[0064] Offshore wind farms emit CO2 during construction and maintenance. Taking Scheme 1 as an example, after the project is completed and put into operation, the annual on-grid electricity will be 262.62 million kWh. Compared with the same amount of electricity generated by thermal power, it can save approximately 84,301.4 tons of standard coal annually (coal consumption for thermal power is calculated at 321 g / kWh), reducing CO2 emissions by 181,000 tons. In addition, it can save 76,305 tons of water, reducing the pollution of the water environment caused by hydraulic ash discharge and warm water discharge. Therefore, wind farms have significant energy-saving and emission-reduction benefits.

[0065] (9) Other environmental impacts

[0066] Every stage of wind farm construction will have varying degrees of impact on the Yellow and Bohai Seas; this issue exists in all three schemes (1, 2, and 3). For example, noise and air pollution are generated during component fabrication; exhaust emissions, safety concerns, and traffic congestion arise during transportation; and the foundation construction can cause the extinction of some seabed organisms. During operation, improper operation may lead to collisions between maintenance vessels and wind turbine towers or substations, resulting in oil leaks and pollution; the operation of the blades generates noise and affects birds, causing collisions with the towers or operating blades. Overall, the impacts during construction and operation are not negligible, but with appropriate measures, these impacts can be controlled within a certain range, meeting environmental impact requirements.

[0067] (10) Design service life

[0068] Onshore wind turbines typically have a lifespan of 30 years, while the offshore environment is complex and harsh, resulting in a shorter lifespan. The project in this scheme has an operating period of 25 years, so the lifespan of the wind turbines is considered to be 25 years in all three schemes.

[0069] (11) Safety and reliability

[0070] In addition to service life, wind turbines must also meet certain safety levels, which are divided into five levels: IEC S, IEC I, IEC II, IEC IIII, and IEC IV. Offshore wind turbines are generally above IEC III. Therefore, they can meet safety and reliability requirements within their service life.

[0071] Furthermore, based on the constructed evaluation index system and influencing factor analysis of renewable energy, as well as the fuzzy hierarchical analysis method, an importance analysis and evaluation is conducted using the offshore wind energy development in Dalian as an example.

[0072] Consistency was assessed: CR = 0.003, 2mx = 5.0133, CI = 0.0033, RI = 1.12, CI / RI < 0.1, which satisfies the condition. Using the same method, the weights of the indicator layers were calculated, yielding: Energy Conversion Efficiency = 0.10325, Technology Maturity = 0.10325, Power Generation Cost = 0.2209, Installed Capacity = 0.1473, Distance to Load Center = 0.0413, Developable Capacity = 0.1239, Energy Stability = 0.0413, CO2 Emissions = 0.0547, Other Environmental Impacts = 0.0547, Service Life = 0.0656, and Reliability = 0.0438.

[0073] The order of these parameters is as follows: power generation cost > installed capacity > exploitable capacity > energy conversion efficiency and technology maturity > service life > CO2 emissions and other environmental impacts > reliability > energy stability.

[0074] The results show that the cost of power generation is the primary factor to consider in the development of offshore wind energy in Dalian. Other important factors include exploitable capacity, installed capacity, energy conversion efficiency, and technological maturity.

[0075] Therefore, based on the development potential of various energy sources and Dalian's future energy planning, Dalian will construct offshore wind power, tidal power, and ocean current power projects. Consequently, Dalian's future energy supply will include thermal power, nuclear power, onshore wind power, offshore wind power, tidal power, ocean current power, waste-to-energy, and photovoltaic power.

[0076] This study examines the changing trends of electricity consumption and power generation in Dalian over the years. Figure 2 .

[0077] The trend chart shows that Dalian's current electricity consumption exceeds its power generation, indicating a significant shortage of supply capacity. Electricity needs to be supplemented from other power grids. Furthermore, with Dalian's economic development and the further improvement of people's living standards, electricity demand will continue to increase, as clearly shown in the chart.

[0078] The following forecasts the total electricity demand in Dalian City for 2020 and 2030. The Exp-Dec2 model in Origin 8.0 was used to perform nonlinear fitting on the electricity consumption in Dalian City from 2001 to 2011. The results are as follows:

[0079]

[0080] The correlation coefficient R 2 =0.99436, residual sum of squares 15.26435. See the fitted curve. Figure 3 .

[0081] The electricity consumption of Dalian City in 2020 and 2030 is estimated to be 58.576 billion kWh and 134.609 billion kWh, respectively.

[0082] With the future development of power plants in Dalian, such as the Hongyanhe project, the annual power generation will reach 30 billion kilowatt-hours, which can meet the current annual electricity consumption of both Dalian and Liaoning Province, effectively improving the energy supply situation of Dalian and Liaoning Province. Therefore, although Dalian's electricity demand will grow rapidly in the next 20 years, the power supply will be able to meet the city's electricity needs.

[0083] Therefore, assuming that Dalian City is completely self-sufficient in electricity, this invention will use 2010 as the base year to optimize the quota weight of Dalian City's future energy development structure (2020, 2030), so as to maximize the comprehensive benefits of energy development in terms of technology, economy, environment, and safety.

[0084] Specifically, the following calculations are performed:

[0085] (1) Energy processing and conversion efficiency

[0086] According to research, the current energy conversion efficiency of wind power is between 24% and 54%. Referring to the calculation results of the energy conversion efficiency of offshore wind power in Dalian, the current energy conversion efficiency of offshore wind power is taken as 40%. Considering that offshore wind energy has less turbulence and its energy conversion efficiency is higher than that of onshore wind power of the same level, the current energy conversion efficiency of onshore wind power is taken as 35%.

[0087] The conversion efficiency of other different renewable energy sources is estimated by referring to domestic research reports, technology roadmaps, and relevant research results from the China Electricity Council, and then applying the average rate of change.

[0088] For tidal and current-current power generation, the current conversion efficiency of conventional turbines is 20%. For waste-to-energy power generation, the current power generation technology has an electrical efficiency of only 10% to 15%.

[0089] For photovoltaic power generation, according to the International Energy Agency's technical targets for photovoltaic power generation, the conversion efficiency is set at 17%, 23%, and 25% for 2010, 2020, and 2030, respectively.

[0090] (2) Power generation timber

[0091] For wind power generation, considering the law of diminishing marginal costs, the cost reduction in 2030 will be less than that in 2020, with the cost of offshore wind power and onshore wind power generation being approximately RMB 0.498 / kWh and RMB 0.469 / kWh, respectively.

[0092] (3) Installed capacity

[0093] The study and construction of tidal power demonstration projects will fully utilize coastal tidal energy. Currently, the installed capacity of onshore wind power is 200MW. According to Dalian's unified plan, by 2020, 200,000-300,000 kW of offshore wind power projects will be developed and constructed, while 300,000-500,000 kW of onshore wind power projects will be completed, bringing the total installed wind power capacity to 800,000 kW. Therefore, it is estimated that by 2020, the installed capacity of onshore and offshore wind power will be 500MW and 300MW respectively. The high-quality wind energy resources in the Dalian area will be developed and constructed at a rate of no less than 100,000 kW per year, creating a megawatt-level wind power base integrating onshore and offshore wind power. At this rate of development, by 2030, the total installed capacity will reach 2000MW, with onshore and offshore wind power reaching 1000MW and 1000MW respectively.

[0094] According to the marine functional zoning of Liaoning Province and Dalian City, Dalian has a total of 5 tidal energy utilization areas and 1 tidal current energy utilization area, with more than 20 sites suitable for building tidal power stations. Among them, 4 sites belong to Class III resources, and the installed capacity of tidal power stations that can be developed is expected to reach 6MW.

[0095] (4) Developable resources

[0096] According to numerical simulation results of wind farms, Dalian City has 60GW of exploitable wind energy, while the exploitable wind energy at a height of 10 meters in the coastal area of ​​Dalian is approximately three times that of the inland area. Therefore, the exploitable onshore wind energy in Dalian City is 1.5GW, and the offshore wind energy is 4.5GW.

[0097] Based on the 1985 site selection and functional estimates of potential tidal power stations in Liaoning Province, there were 24 exploitable tidal power stations with a theoretical potential of 1.936 million kW and an installed capacity of 512,000 kW, accounting for 2.3% of the national total. Among them, Dalian City had 21 exploitable resource sites with a exploitable capacity of 0.51 GW.

[0098] (5) CO2 emissions

[0099] Previous analyses were based on the amount of standard coal consumed by thermal power plants under the equivalent power generation of renewable energy, ignoring carbon emissions generated at all stages of the renewable energy industry's entire life cycle. Here, we estimate the CO2 emissions of renewable energy based on the entire life cycle.

[0100] According to Schleisner 1 The research findings of 78 estimated that the CO2 emissions of offshore wind farms are 16.5 g / kWh, while those of onshore wind farms are 9.7 g / kWh.

[0101] According to the research results, the CO2 emissions per ton of waste incineration in Northeast China range from 144 to 190 kg, taking the maximum of 190 kg. Based on a power plant with a waste processing capacity of 1500 t / d, the maximum annual power generation is 167 × 10⁻⁶ tons. 6 Based on the kWh, the CO2 emissions from waste-to-energy power generation are calculated to be 626 g / kWh.

[0102] References and literature findings on CO2 emissions from other power generation methods are provided, and the range of CO2 emissions over the entire life cycle of six renewable energy power generation methods is summarized as follows: Figure 4 As shown.

[0103] (6) Design service life

[0104] Offshore wind farms have a lifespan of 25 years. Onshore wind farms, considering the higher sand content in the wind compared to offshore wind farms, which causes greater wear and tear on the turbines, have a lifespan of 20 years.

[0105] Based on the lifespan of tidal power stations that have been in operation for many years both domestically and internationally, the design lifespan here is taken as 70 years.

[0106] The design life of the turbine units in the tidal power station is 10 years.

[0107] According to the feasibility study, the waste incineration power plant project has a project cycle of 25 years.

[0108] Currently, the lifespan of photovoltaic power generation modules already installed in China is 20 to 25 years; we will use 25 years here.

[0109] (7) Determination of other qualitative indicators

[0110] Qualitative indicators such as technology maturity, distance from load centers, energy stability, other environmental impacts, and reliability are determined using an expert scoring method. Future trends are analyzed using the New Energy Technology Roadmap and industry analysis reports, with average changes used to project qualitative indicators for various renewable energy sources in Dalian for 2020 and 2030.

[0111] Furthermore, for renewable energy, data standardization formulas are adopted for both relatively larger and relatively smaller values, while to make the standardization results more reasonable, they are set within the range of 0 to 100. The "larger is better" indicator uses the following formula:

[0112] For indicators where larger is always better:

[0113]

[0114] For indicators where smaller is better:

[0115]

[0116] In the formula y i For the standardized data, x i x represents the original data value. max The maximum value x in the data series min It is the minimum value in the data series.

[0117] Furthermore, regarding the standardization of non-renewable energy data, the comprehensive evaluation results of non-renewable energy development in Dalian City can be found here. Figure 5 The evaluation results show that nuclear power's overall evaluation score was lower than that of thermal power only in the base year, and has remained higher thereafter. Nuclear power's growth rate increased significantly in 2020 and 2030, while thermal power remained relatively stable.

[0118] The comprehensive analysis method for developing offshore renewable energy according to embodiments of the present invention can significantly improve energy utilization efficiency, reduce costs, enhance system reliability and safety, while promoting technological innovation and standardization, enhancing environmental and social benefits, and gaining policy and market support. These technological effects not only improve the economic benefits of projects but also promote the sustainable development of the entire industry.

[0119] like Figure 6As shown, the present invention also proposes a comprehensive analysis system 10 for offshore renewable energy development, comprising:

[0120] The indicator system construction module 100 is used to construct an evaluation indicator system for renewable energy.

[0121] The importance analysis module 200 is used to conduct importance analysis and evaluation of offshore renewable energy development based on the evaluation index system and influencing factors of renewable energy, and obtain the importance analysis and evaluation results.

[0122] The status and zoning determination module 300 is used to determine the energy supply and demand status and functional zoning.

[0123] The comprehensive analysis module 400 is used to obtain the comprehensive analysis results of renewable energy development based on the importance analysis and evaluation results, and according to the energy supply and demand status and functional zoning.

[0124] Furthermore, the evaluation index system includes: energy conversion efficiency, technology maturity, power generation cost, installed capacity, distance from load center, exploitable resources, energy stability, CO2 emissions, other environmental impacts, design service life, and safety and reliability.

[0125] Furthermore, the energy conversion efficiency includes: wind turbine utilization rate, the influence of climate factors, wind turbine power curve, the influence of wind turbine wake, the influence of control and turbulence intensity, blade contamination and corrosion, air density correction, and energy loss within the wind farm.

[0126] Furthermore, by collecting historical data on total electricity consumption and power generation, and calculating the trends in these changes, the total electricity demand of a certain city is predicted, and a nonlinear fitting is performed on the electricity consumption data.

[0127]

[0128] Among them, the correlation coefficient R 2 =0.99436, residual sum of squares 15.26435.

[0129] Furthermore, larger is better indicators: The following formula is used:

[0130] For indicators where larger is always better:

[0131]

[0132] For indicators where smaller is better:

[0133]

[0134] In the formula y i For the standardized data, xi x represents the original data value. max The maximum value x in the data series min It is the minimum value in the data series.

[0135] The comprehensive analysis system for offshore renewable energy development according to embodiments of the present invention can significantly improve energy efficiency, reduce costs, enhance system reliability and safety, while promoting technological innovation and standardization, enhancing environmental and social benefits, and gaining policy and market support. These technological effects not only improve the economic benefits of projects but also promote the sustainable development of the entire industry.

[0136] In the description of this specification, the references to terms such as "one embodiment," "some embodiments," "example," "specific example," or "some examples," etc., refer to specific features, structures, materials, or characteristics described in connection with that embodiment or example, which are included in at least one embodiment or example of the present invention. In this specification, the illustrative expressions of the above terms do not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Furthermore, the specific features, structures, materials, or characteristics described may be combined in any suitable manner in one or more embodiments or examples. Moreover, without contradiction, those skilled in the art can combine and integrate the different embodiments or examples described in this specification, as well as the features of different embodiments or examples.

[0137] Furthermore, the terms "first" and "second" are used for descriptive purposes only and should not be construed as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly specifying the number of technical features indicated. Thus, a feature defined as "first" or "second" may explicitly or implicitly include at least one of that feature. In the description of this invention, "a plurality of" means at least two, such as two, three, etc., unless otherwise explicitly specified.

Claims

1. A comprehensive analytical method for the development of offshore renewable energy, characterized in that, include: Construct an evaluation index system for renewable energy; Based on the evaluation index system and influencing factors of renewable energy, the importance of offshore renewable energy development was analyzed and evaluated using the fuzzy hierarchical analysis method, and the results of the importance analysis were obtained. Determine the energy supply and demand status and functional zoning; Based on the importance analysis and evaluation results, and in accordance with the energy supply and demand status and functional zoning, a comprehensive analysis of renewable energy development is obtained.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The evaluation index system includes: energy conversion efficiency, technology maturity, power generation cost, installed capacity, distance from load center, exploitable resources, energy stability, CO2 emissions, other environmental impacts, design service life, and safety and reliability.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that, The energy conversion efficiency includes: wind turbine utilization rate, the impact of climate factors, wind turbine power curve, the impact of wind turbine wake, the impact of control and turbulence intensity, blade contamination and corrosion, air density correction, and energy loss within the wind farm.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that, By collecting historical data on total electricity consumption and power generation, and calculating the trends in these data, the total electricity demand of a certain city is predicted. A nonlinear fitting is then performed on the electricity consumption data. Among them, the correlation coefficient R 2 =0.99436, residual sum of squares 15.26435.

5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The larger the better indicator: Use the following formula: For indicators where larger is always better: For indicators where smaller is better: In the formula y i For the standardized data, x i x represents the original data value. max The maximum value x in the data series min It is the minimum value in the data series.

6. A comprehensive analysis system for offshore renewable energy development, characterized in that, include: The indicator system construction module is used to construct an evaluation indicator system for renewable energy. The importance analysis module is used to conduct importance analysis and evaluation of offshore renewable energy development based on the evaluation index system and influencing factors of renewable energy, and obtain the importance analysis and evaluation results. The status and zoning determination module is used to determine the energy supply and demand status and functional zoning; The comprehensive analysis module is used to conduct a comprehensive analysis of renewable energy development based on the importance analysis and evaluation results, and according to the energy supply and demand status and functional zoning, to obtain the comprehensive analysis results of renewable energy development.

7. The system according to claim 6, characterized in that, The evaluation index system includes: energy conversion efficiency, technology maturity, power generation cost, installed capacity, distance from load center, exploitable resources, energy stability, CO2 emissions, other environmental impacts, design service life, and safety and reliability.

8. The system according to claim 7, characterized in that, The energy conversion efficiency includes: wind turbine utilization rate, the impact of climate factors, wind turbine power curve, the impact of wind turbine wake, the impact of control and turbulence intensity, blade contamination and corrosion, air density correction, and energy loss within the wind farm.

9. The system according to claim 8, characterized in that, By collecting historical data on total electricity consumption and power generation, and calculating the trends in these data, the total electricity demand of a certain city is predicted. A nonlinear fitting is then performed on the electricity consumption data. Among them, the correlation coefficient R 2 =0.99436, residual sum of squares 15.26435.

10. The system according to claim 6, characterized in that, The larger the better indicator: Use the following formula: For indicators where larger is always better: For indicators where smaller is better: In the formula y i For the standardized data, x i x represents the original data value. max The maximum value x in the data series min It is the minimum value in the data series.

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