A business-oriented fast storm surge inundation ensemble forecasting method and system

Abstract

This application discloses a rapid storm surge floodplain ensemble forecasting method and system for operational use, comprising: generating an ensemble typhoon path containing multiple deviation paths based on real-time typhoon forecast paths and historical error information; calculating the model wind field for each path; using a GPU-accelerated storm surge model to drive parallel calculation of hourly storm surge rise fields and representative tide gauge station rise sequences under each path and determine their maximum total tide level; simultaneously calculating the minimum geometric distance between each pre-divided cell and all typhoon paths; selecting target floodplain cells based on three indicators: maximum storm surge rise, maximum total tide level, and minimum typhoon distance; extracting open-boundary driving data of the target cells from the regional rise field to calculate the storm surge floodplain results for each target cell; and finally integrating the results of all target cells to output the final floodplain calculation result. This method achieves a high-precision and high-efficiency operational rapid forecast.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This application relates to the field of marine disaster early warning technology, and in particular to an operational-oriented method and system for rapid storm surge floodplain ensemble forecasting. Background Technology

[0002] Storm surges and the resulting flooding and seawater intrusion are among the most destructive natural disasters in coastal areas, seriously threatening people's lives and property and causing huge economic losses. Accurate and timely storm surge and flooding forecasts are crucial for scientific disaster prevention and mitigation, and for making emergency decisions, possessing significant social and economic value.

[0003] Currently, storm surge flooding forecasting models both domestically and internationally mainly follow two technical approaches. The first type is numerical models based on fully physical dynamic equations, such as ADCIRC, MIKE21, FVCOM, and SCHISM. These models perform numerical calculations on a discrete grid by solving a set of shallow-water equations describing seawater movement. The second type is simplified models based on conceptual processes, such as models based on water depth diffusion, inundation analysis based on digital elevation models (DEMs), and cellular automata methods. These models simulate the diffusion and inundation processes of water bodies through simplified rules.

[0004] However, while numerical model-based approaches offer advantages such as solving physical dynamic equations and high simulation accuracy, they suffer from low computational efficiency. Doubling the resolution of a numerical model increases computational load by 8-10 times, making them unsuitable for operational applications at high resolutions. Therefore, they are typically used for resolutions above 80m. Furthermore, the computational cost is too high for ensemble forecasting across multiple scenarios, and they cannot account for the uncertainty of typhoon paths. Conceptual models based on water depth / volume as the diffusion basis offer advantages such as applicability to urban flooding, high computational efficiency, and the ability to achieve high resolution. However, their forecast accuracy is relatively poor, and they are not well-suited for rapid and intense physical processes like typhoon storm surges and inundation. They also rely on additional models to provide open-boundary water level data. Therefore, existing computational solutions struggle to balance computational speed and accuracy, failing to meet operational requirements. Summary of the Invention

[0005] Based on this, and in response to the aforementioned technical problems, a fast storm surge floodplain ensemble forecasting method oriented towards operational use is provided to address the difficulty of balancing computational speed and accuracy in existing technologies.

[0006] Firstly, an operational-oriented rapid storm surge floodplain ensemble forecasting method is provided, the method comprising:

[0007] Obtain the storm surge range of the major sea area and the range of multiple smaller sea areas that divide the major sea area, wherein each smaller sea area is equipped with a corresponding representative tide gauge station;

[0008] Obtain the original typhoon path from the real-time forecast, and generate a set of typhoon paths containing multiple paths with different deviations based on historical path errors;

[0009] For each typhoon path in the set of typhoon paths, the corresponding model wind field is calculated using an empirical model.

[0010] Using a GPU-accelerated storm surge model, the model wind field is driven for the large sea area respectively, to obtain the hourly storm surge increase value of the large sea area and the hourly storm surge increase value of each representative tide station under each typhoon path in the typhoon path set, and to determine the maximum storm surge increase value of each representative tide station under each typhoon path.

[0011] The hourly total tide level of each representative tide level station is calculated based on the hourly storm surge increase value of each representative tide level station and the hourly astronomical tide of each station obtained in advance, and the maximum total tide level of each representative tide level station is determined.

[0012] For each sea area in the community, calculate the minimum distance between its geometric center and all typhoon paths in the typhoon path set, and record it as the minimum distance to the typhoon.

[0013] Traverse all sea areas in each community and filter target floodplain communities based on preset conditions, including the maximum storm surge increase value of each representative tide station in each community, the maximum total tide level of the representative tide station, and the minimum distance from the typhoon.

[0014] From the hourly storm surge increase values ​​of the large sea area, extract the hourly storm surge data at the open ocean boundary of the target floodplain area, and calculate the storm surge flood results of each target floodplain area based on the storm surge floodplain model.

[0015] The storm surge flooding results of each target floodplain are merged to obtain the final floodplain calculation result.

[0016] Optionally, the preset conditions in the above scheme are: simultaneously satisfying the following conditions: the maximum storm surge increase value of the representative tide gauge station is greater than 120cm, the maximum total tide level of the representative tide gauge station exceeds the orange warning level, and the minimum distance from the typhoon is less than 300km.

[0017] Optionally, in the above scheme, generating multiple different deviation paths includes: based on the original typhoon path predicted in real time, generating at least four disturbance paths (leftward, rightward, faster, and slower) along the path movement direction and its perpendicular direction on the error probability circle corresponding to the target forecast time, which together with the original path constitute the typhoon ensemble path; the error probability circle is the forecast position point at the target forecast time and the corresponding historical average forecast error radius, and is determined with the forecast position point as the center and the error radius as the radius.

[0018] Optionally, in the above scheme, the empirical model is the Holland model.

[0019] In the above scheme, optionally, the resolution of the large area sea area is 1-2km, and the resolution of the small area sea area is 10-30m.

[0020] Optionally, in the above scheme, the GPU-accelerated storm surge model is modeled using two-dimensional shallow water equations, discretized using a spherical coordinate system structured mesh, and solved using GPU acceleration.

[0021] Optionally, in the above scheme, the storm surge floodplain model is spatially discretized using a structured grid in spherical or Cartesian coordinate systems, and solved more quickly on a graphics processor using CUDA or Taichi parallel computing frameworks.

[0022] Secondly, an operational-oriented rapid storm surge floodplain ensemble forecasting system, the system comprising:

[0023] The module for obtaining the results of the division of the sea area into large and small areas is used to obtain the storm surge range of the divided sea area and the range of multiple small sea areas that divide the sea area into large and small areas. Each small sea area is configured with a corresponding representative tide gauge station.

[0024] Deviation Typhoon Path Calculation Module: Used to obtain the original typhoon path from the real-time forecast and generate a set of typhoon paths containing multiple different deviation paths based on historical path errors;

[0025] Model wind field calculation module: used to calculate the corresponding model wind field for each typhoon path in the set of typhoon paths using an empirical model;

[0026] Storm surge calculation module: Used with GPU-accelerated storm surge model, to drive the model wind field of the large sea area respectively, to obtain the hourly storm surge increase value of the large sea area and the hourly storm surge increase value of each representative tide station under each typhoon path in the typhoon path set, and to determine the maximum storm surge increase value of each representative tide station under each typhoon path.

[0027] Maximum total tide level calculation module: used to calculate the hourly total tide level of each representative tide level station based on the hourly storm surge increase value of each representative tide level station and the pre-acquired hourly astronomical tide of each station, and to determine the maximum total tide level of each representative tide level station.

[0028] Minimum distance to typhoon calculation module: used to calculate the minimum distance between the geometric center of each marine area and all typhoon paths in the typhoon path set, denoted as the minimum distance to typhoon;

[0029] Target floodplain area filtering module: It is used to traverse all sea areas and filter target floodplain areas based on preset conditions, such as the maximum storm surge increase value of each representative tide station in each sea area, the maximum total tide level of the representative tide station, and the minimum distance from the typhoon.

[0030] The storm surge flooding result calculation module for the target small floodplain area is used to extract hourly storm surge data at the open ocean boundary of the target floodplain area from the hourly storm surge increase value of the large sea area, and calculate the storm surge flooding result of each target small floodplain area based on the storm surge flooding model.

[0031] The final floodplain calculation module is used to merge the storm surge floodplain results of each target small floodplain area to obtain the final floodplain calculation result.

[0032] Thirdly, a computer device includes a memory and a processor, the memory storing a computer program, and the processor executing the computer program to implement the operational-oriented rapid storm surge floodplain ensemble forecasting method steps described in the first aspect.

[0033] Fourthly, a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the operational-oriented rapid storm surge floodplain ensemble forecasting method described in the first aspect.

[0034] This application has at least the following beneficial effects:

[0035] This application calculates storm surge and floodplain separately for large regions and divides the small areas into multiple grids. It calculates on demand based on judgment conditions rather than calculating the entire area. Moreover, it uses GPUs to accelerate the calculation process, successfully overcoming the contradiction between high accuracy and high efficiency in existing technologies. It achieves end-to-end operational forecasting from typhoon ensemble path to ultra-high resolution floodplain risk map within minutes. Attached Figure Description

[0036] Figure 1 A flowchart illustrating an operational-oriented rapid storm surge floodplain ensemble forecasting method provided in one embodiment of this application;

[0037] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of the marine area zoning of residential communities in Ningbo City is provided as an embodiment of this application;

[0038] Figure 3 A schematic diagram illustrating the generation of a typhoon deviation path provided in one embodiment of this application;

[0039] Figure 4 The storm surge flooding calculation results for various target small areas provided in one embodiment of this application. Detailed Implementation

[0040] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of this application clearer, the following detailed description is provided in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative and not intended to limit the scope of this application.

[0041] In one embodiment, such as Figure 1 As shown, an operational-oriented method for rapid storm surge floodplain ensemble forecasting is provided, the method comprising:

[0042] Step S1: Obtain the storm surge range of the large-area sea area and the range of multiple small-area sea areas that divide the large-area sea area, wherein each small-area sea area is equipped with a corresponding representative tide gauge station.

[0043] In step S1, the storm surge range for the region is set. Based on simulation requirements, the calculation range for the storm surge in the region is defined. Taking the East China Sea as an example, a typical simulation area, the range is 117-127E, 24-34N. This is named... The typical spatial resolution of storm surges in this application is 1-2 km.

[0044] The subdivision of the floodplain area. Compared to models such as ADCIRC that generate a fixed mesh, this application mainly divides the simulation area into N smaller regions, named sequentially as follows: Each small area has a corresponding range of latitude and longitude. The typical storm surge floodplain spatial resolution of this application is 10-30m. Each cell is represented by a corresponding representative tide gauge station, named sta1, sta2...staN. Each tide gauge station has a warning tide level set by the relevant national department, which are blue, yellow, orange, and red, respectively, representing the increasing severity of storm surge disasters when the water level reaches the warning tide level. The corresponding warning water level values ​​are... Subsequent calculations, based on established criteria, should target specific areas, rather than using a fixed-grid global calculation like in the ADCIRC model. This is a fundamental requirement for fast floodplain systems. For example, taking Ningbo City as an example, it is pre-divided into five district / county-level areas, such as... Figure 2As shown, it is divided into Zhenhai (tide level station: Zhenhai Station), Yinzhou Fenghua (tide level station: Wushashan Station), Ninghai (tide level station: Jiantiao Station), Beilun (tide level station: Beilun Station), Xiangshan North (tide level station: Songlanshan Station), and Xiangshan South (tide level station: Shipu Station).

[0045] Step S2: Obtain the original typhoon path from the real-time forecast, and generate a set of typhoon paths containing multiple paths with different deviations based on the historical path error.

[0046] In step S2, the typhoon probability path is generated. During operation, when a typhoon occurs, the typhoon path released by the China Meteorological Administration is obtained, and combined with the typhoon path error, a standard path (i.e., the original path), a faster path, a slower path, a left-leaning path, and a right-leaning path are generated. Specifically, as follows... Figure 3 As shown, with the standard path of the typhoon as the zero point, the error probability circle (obtained by statistically analyzing historical forecasts based on a given error radius) is rotated clockwise. It can be confirmed The paths are determined. Five paths are named sequentially, and each typhoon has its center's latitude and longitude coordinates. Other centers Information such as...

[0047] Step S3: For each typhoon path in the set of typhoon paths, use an empirical model wind field calculation to obtain the corresponding model wind field.

[0048] In step S3, the model wind field is generated. Because numerical wind fields often have low resolution, typhoon intensity is generally underestimated, or typhoon locations are inaccurate, and update frequency is low, storm surge model-driven wind fields often use empirical model wind field calculations, such as the Holland model. The data from the five paths are traversed, and the corresponding model wind fields (features including 10m wind and sea level pressure) are generated sequentially.

[0049] Step S4: Using a GPU-accelerated storm surge model, the model wind field driven by the large sea area is used to obtain the hourly storm surge increase value of the large sea area and the hourly storm surge increase value of each representative tide station under each typhoon path in the typhoon path set, and the maximum storm surge increase value of each representative tide station under each typhoon path is determined.

[0050] In step S4, a GPU-accelerated storm surge model is used to quickly calculate the storm surge process over a large area, providing open boundary conditions for the inundation of smaller areas. The model employs two-dimensional shallow water equations, uses a spherical coordinate system for mesh discretization, and finite difference discretization. or The library uses GPU acceleration, and the forecast time for typical storm surge tasks is generally tens of seconds, far exceeding that of numerical models such as ADCIRC, which is one of the basic conditions for rapid floodplain systems. By sequentially inputting the model wind fields corresponding to five typhoon-like paths, the calculation will produce hourly site storm surge forecasts (especially representative tide level stations for each small area) and hourly overall storm surge forecasts for the five scenarios.

[0051] Step S5: Calculate the hourly total tide level of each representative tide level station based on the hourly storm surge increase value of each representative tide level station and the pre-acquired hourly astronomical tide of each station, and determine the maximum total tide level of each representative tide level station.

[0052] In step S5, the maximum total tide level of representative tide gauge stations in each floodplain sub-region is extracted. The hourly total tide level (five data points for five typhoon scenarios) = hourly station rise (five data points for five typhoon scenarios) + hourly station astronomical tide (one data point). The hourly station rise is calculated and output by the regional storm surge model, and the hourly station astronomical tide is updated annually by the national operational unit / calculated in advance based on harmonic analysis of observation data. The obtained hourly total tide level is used to select the maximum value for each scenario to obtain the maximum total tide level of representative tide gauge stations in each floodplain sub-region, denoted as follows: .

[0053] Step S6: For each sea area in the community, calculate the minimum distance between its geometric center and all typhoon paths in the typhoon path set, and record it as the minimum distance to the typhoon.

[0054] In step S6, the minimum distance from each floodplain sub-area to the typhoon is calculated. Five typhoon paths are input. Each typhoon has its center's latitude and longitude coordinates. Calculate these path data sequentially to the floodplain area. The distances from the typhoon are calculated, and the minimum distance is selected. The minimum distances from each community to the typhoon are recorded sequentially as follows: .

[0055] Step S7: Traverse all sea areas in the community and select target floodplain communities based on preset conditions, such as the maximum storm surge increase value of each representative tide station in each sea area, the maximum total tide level of the representative tide station, and the minimum distance from the typhoon.

[0056] In step S7, the cells for which floodplain forecasts need to be calculated are determined. This is based on three pre-set conditions:

[0057] (1) Maximum total tide level, This means the total tide level is higher than the orange alert level;

[0058] (2) Maximum storm surge increase, ;

[0059] (3) Minimum distance from the typhoon, ;

[0060] The above are the default thresholds for the three conditions; users can adjust them appropriately according to the specific typhoon. The process iterates through all N small areas, selecting M target small areas that meet the conditions. Recorded as .

[0061] Step S8: Extract hourly storm surge data at the open ocean boundary of the target floodplain from the hourly storm surge increase values ​​of the large sea area, and calculate the storm surge flood results of each target floodplain based on the storm surge floodplain model.

[0062] In step S8, the open boundary conditions of the target small region are extracted. From From the hourly storm surge field output of the large region, the open boundary data of each target sub-region is extracted. This is denoted as... .

[0063] The storm surge floodplain model calculates the floodplain results for the target small area. It employs a two-dimensional shallow water equation model, discretized using a spherical or Cartesian coordinate system with a structured mesh, and discretized using finite difference discretization. or The library utilizes GPU acceleration and integrates seawall data into the DEM data, avoiding the use of seawalls as one-dimensional internal potential barriers in other models, which would increase logical operations and reduce processing time. Forecasting typical small-area storm surge inundation tasks generally takes tens of seconds, far longer than numerical models like ADCIRC, and is one of the fundamental requirements for rapid inundation systems. According to the provided... Open boundaries, and calculate through the model, such as... Figure 4 As shown, the storm surge flooding calculation results for each target area are obtained. .

[0064] Step S9: Merge the storm surge flooding results of each target floodplain cell to obtain the final floodplain calculation result.

[0065] In step S9, the forecast results are integrated; the storm surge flooding calculation results of each target area are combined. The data are merged and combined into a single file to obtain the final floodplain calculation results. Forecast elements include the storm surge floodplain depth and area.

[0066] The aforementioned operational-oriented rapid storm surge and floodplain ensemble forecasting method calculates regional storm surge and small-scale floodplain separately, divides the small-scale area into multiple grids, and calculates on demand based on judgment conditions rather than calculating across the entire area. Moreover, it uses GPU acceleration during the calculation process, successfully overcoming the contradiction between high accuracy and high efficiency in existing technologies, and achieving end-to-end operational forecasting from typhoon ensemble path to ultra-high resolution floodplain risk map within minutes.

[0067] In one embodiment, the preset conditions are: simultaneously satisfying the following conditions: the maximum storm surge increase value of the representative tide gauge station is greater than 120cm, the maximum total tide level of the representative tide gauge station exceeds the orange warning level value, and the minimum distance from the typhoon is less than 300km.

[0068] In one embodiment, generating multiple different deviation paths includes: based on the original typhoon path predicted in real time, generating at least four disturbance paths (leftward, rightward, faster, and slower) along the path movement direction and its perpendicular direction on the error probability circle corresponding to the target forecast time, which together with the original path constitute the typhoon ensemble path; the error probability circle is the forecast position point at the target forecast time and the corresponding historical average forecast error radius, and is determined with the forecast position point as the center and the error radius as the radius.

[0069] In one embodiment, the empirical model is the Holland model.

[0070] In one embodiment, the resolution of the large-area sea area is 1-2 km, and the resolution of the small-area sea area is 10-30 m.

[0071] In one embodiment, the GPU-accelerated storm surge model is modeled using two-dimensional shallow water equations, discretized using a spherical coordinate system structured mesh, and solved using GPU acceleration.

[0072] In one embodiment, the storm surge floodplain model is spatially discretized using a structured grid in spherical or Cartesian coordinate systems, and solved more quickly on a graphics processor using CUDA or Taichi parallel computing frameworks.

[0073] In one embodiment, an operational-oriented rapid storm surge floodplain ensemble forecasting system is provided, the system comprising:

[0074] The module for obtaining the results of the division of the sea area into large and small areas is used to obtain the storm surge range of the divided sea area and the range of multiple small sea areas that divide the sea area into large and small areas. Each small sea area is configured with a corresponding representative tide gauge station.

[0075] Deviation Typhoon Path Calculation Module: Used to obtain the original typhoon path from the real-time forecast and generate a set of typhoon paths containing multiple different deviation paths based on historical path errors;

[0076] Model wind field calculation module: used to calculate the corresponding model wind field for each typhoon path in the set of typhoon paths using an empirical model;

[0077] Storm surge calculation module: Used with GPU-accelerated storm surge model, to drive the model wind field of the large sea area respectively, to obtain the hourly storm surge increase value of the large sea area and the hourly storm surge increase value of each representative tide station under each typhoon path in the typhoon path set, and to determine the maximum storm surge increase value of each representative tide station under each typhoon path.

[0078] Maximum total tide level calculation module: used to calculate the hourly total tide level of each representative tide level station based on the hourly storm surge increase value of each representative tide level station and the pre-acquired hourly astronomical tide of each station, and to determine the maximum total tide level of each representative tide level station.

[0079] Minimum distance to typhoon calculation module: used to calculate the minimum distance between the geometric center of each marine area and all typhoon paths in the typhoon path set, denoted as the minimum distance to typhoon;

[0080] Target floodplain area filtering module: It is used to traverse all sea areas and filter target floodplain areas based on preset conditions, such as the maximum storm surge increase value of each representative tide station in each sea area, the maximum total tide level of the representative tide station, and the minimum distance from the typhoon.

[0081] The storm surge flooding result calculation module for the target small floodplain area is used to extract hourly storm surge data at the open ocean boundary of the target floodplain area from the hourly storm surge increase value of the large sea area, and calculate the storm surge flooding result of each target small floodplain area based on the storm surge flooding model.

[0082] The final floodplain calculation module is used to merge the storm surge floodplain results of each target small floodplain area to obtain the final floodplain calculation result.

[0083] The advantages of this invention are:

[0084] (1) Overcome the problem that previous storm surge operational systems could not balance model calculation speed and calculation accuracy. That is, it insists on using numerical model calculation instead of conceptual model, but the model is accelerated by GPU; and the storm surge of the large area and the storm surge of the small area are calculated separately. The small area is divided into multiple grids, and the calculation is performed on demand according to the judgment conditions instead of global calculation. It realizes the minute-level ultra-high resolution storm surge and storm surge operational forecast within a few minutes, with a maximum of 10-30m.

[0085] (2) An integrated solution that combines typhoon path, regional typhoon storm surge forecast, astronomical tide harmonization analysis results of small-scale stations, and small-scale floodplain forecast.

[0086] Specific limitations regarding an operational-oriented rapid storm surge floodplain ensemble forecasting system can be found in the limitations of an operational-oriented rapid storm surge floodplain ensemble forecasting method described above, and will not be repeated here. Each module in the aforementioned operational-oriented rapid storm surge floodplain ensemble forecasting system can be implemented entirely or partially through software, hardware, or a combination thereof. These modules can be embedded in or independent of the processor in a computer device, or stored in the memory of a computer device as software, so that the processor can call and execute the corresponding operations of each module.

[0087] In one embodiment, a computer device is provided, which may be a server. The computer device includes a processor, memory, and a network interface connected via a system bus. The processor provides computing and control capabilities. The memory includes a non-volatile storage medium and internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system, computer programs, and a database. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of the operating system and computer programs in the non-volatile storage medium. The network interface is used to communicate with external terminals via a network connection. When the computer program is executed by the processor, it implements the aforementioned operational-oriented rapid storm surge floodplain ensemble forecasting method.

[0088] In one embodiment, a computer-readable storage medium is also provided, on which a computer program is stored relating to all or part of the processes in the methods of the above embodiments.

[0089] Those skilled in the art will understand that all or part of the processes in the methods of the above embodiments can be implemented by a computer program instructing related hardware. The computer program can be stored in a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium, and when executed, it can include the processes of the embodiments of the methods described above. Any references to memory, storage, databases, or other media used in the embodiments provided in this application can include at least one of non-volatile and volatile memory. Non-volatile memory can include read-only memory (ROM), magnetic tape, floppy disk, flash memory, or optical storage, etc. Volatile memory can include random access memory (RAM) or external cache memory. By way of illustration and not limitation, RAM can be in various forms, such as static random access memory (SRAM) or dynamic random access memory (DRAM), etc.

[0090] The technical features of the above embodiments can be combined in any way. For the sake of brevity, not all possible combinations of the technical features in the above embodiments are described. However, as long as there is no contradiction in the combination of these technical features, they should be considered to be within the scope of this specification.

[0091] The embodiments described above are merely illustrative of several implementation methods of this application, and while the descriptions are relatively specific and detailed, they should not be construed as limiting the scope of the invention patent. It should be noted that those skilled in the art can make various modifications and improvements without departing from the concept of this application, and these all fall within the protection scope of this application. Therefore, the protection scope of this patent application should be determined by the appended claims.

Claims

1. A business-oriented fast storm surge inundation ensemble forecasting method, characterized in that, The method includes: Obtain the storm surge range of the major sea area and the range of multiple smaller sea areas that divide the major sea area, wherein each smaller sea area is equipped with a corresponding representative tide gauge station; Obtain the original typhoon path from the real-time forecast, and generate a set of typhoon paths containing multiple paths with different deviations based on historical path errors; For each typhoon path in the set of typhoon paths, the corresponding model wind field is calculated using an empirical model. Using a GPU-accelerated storm surge model, the model wind field is driven for the sea area in the large region, and the hourly storm surge increase value of the large sea area and the hourly storm surge increase value of each representative tide station are obtained under each typhoon path in the typhoon path set. The maximum storm surge increase value of each representative tide station under each typhoon path is determined. The hourly total tide level of each representative tide level station is calculated based on the hourly storm surge increase value of each representative tide level station and the hourly astronomical tide of each station obtained in advance, and the maximum total tide level of each representative tide level station is determined. For each sea area in the community, calculate the minimum distance between its geometric center and all typhoon paths in the typhoon path set, and record it as the minimum distance to the typhoon. Traverse all sea areas in each community and filter target floodplain communities based on preset conditions, including the maximum storm surge increase value of each representative tide station in each community, the maximum total tide level of the representative tide station, and the minimum distance from the typhoon. From the hourly storm surge increase values ​​of the large ocean area, extract the hourly storm surge data at the ocean open boundary of the target floodplain area, and calculate the storm surge flood results of each target floodplain area based on the storm surge floodplain model. The storm surge flooding results of each target floodplain are merged to obtain the final floodplain calculation result.

2. The operational-oriented rapid storm surge floodplain ensemble forecasting method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The preset conditions are: simultaneously satisfying the following conditions: the maximum storm surge increase value of the representative tide gauge station is greater than 120cm, the maximum total tide level of the representative tide gauge station exceeds the orange warning level, and the minimum distance from the typhoon is less than 300km.

3. The operational-oriented rapid storm surge floodplain ensemble forecasting method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The generation of multiple different deviation paths includes: based on the original typhoon path in real-time forecast, at least four disturbance paths (leftward, rightward, faster, and slower) are generated along the path movement direction and its perpendicular direction on the error probability circle corresponding to the target forecast time, which together with the original path constitute the typhoon ensemble path; the error probability circle is the forecast position point at the target forecast time and the corresponding historical average forecast error radius, and is determined with the forecast position point as the center and the error radius as the radius.

4. The operational-oriented rapid storm surge floodplain ensemble forecasting method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The empirical model is the Holland model.

5. The operational-oriented rapid storm surge floodplain ensemble forecasting method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The resolution of the large-area sea area is 1-2km, and the resolution of the small-area sea area is 10-30m.

6. The operational-oriented rapid storm surge floodplain ensemble forecasting method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The GPU-accelerated storm surge model is modeled using two-dimensional shallow water equations, discretized using a spherical coordinate system structured mesh, and solved using GPU acceleration.

7. The operational-oriented rapid storm surge floodplain ensemble forecasting method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The storm surge floodplain model is spatially discretized using a structured grid in spherical or Cartesian coordinate systems, and solved more quickly on a graphics processor using CUDA or Taichi parallel computing frameworks.

8. An operational-oriented rapid storm surge floodplain ensemble forecasting system, characterized in that, The system includes: The module for obtaining the results of the division of the sea area into large and small areas is used to obtain the storm surge range of the divided sea area and the range of multiple small sea areas that divide the sea area into large and small areas. Each small sea area is configured with a corresponding representative tide gauge station. Deviation Typhoon Path Calculation Module: Used to obtain the original typhoon path from the real-time forecast and generate a set of typhoon paths containing multiple different deviation paths based on historical path errors; Model wind field calculation module: used to calculate the corresponding model wind field for each typhoon path in the set of typhoon paths using an empirical model; Storm surge calculation module: Used with GPU-accelerated storm surge model, to drive the model wind field for the sea area in the large area respectively, to obtain the hourly storm surge increase value of the sea area and the hourly storm surge increase value of each representative tide station under each typhoon path in the typhoon path set, and to determine the maximum storm surge increase value of each representative tide station under each typhoon path. Maximum total tide level calculation module: used to calculate the hourly total tide level of each representative tide level station based on the hourly storm surge increase value of each representative tide level station and the pre-acquired hourly astronomical tide of each station, and to determine the maximum total tide level of each representative tide level station. Minimum distance to typhoon calculation module: used to calculate the minimum distance between the geometric center of each marine area and all typhoon paths in the typhoon path set, denoted as the minimum distance to typhoon; Target floodplain area filtering module: It is used to traverse all sea areas and filter target floodplain areas based on preset conditions, such as the maximum storm surge increase value of each representative tide station in each sea area, the maximum total tide level of the representative tide station, and the minimum distance from the typhoon. The storm surge flooding result calculation module for the target small floodplain area is used to extract the hourly storm surge increase data at the ocean open boundary position of the target floodplain area from the hourly storm surge increase value of the ocean area, and calculate the storm surge flooding result of each target small floodplain area based on the storm surge flooding model. The final floodplain calculation module is used to merge the storm surge floodplain results of each target small floodplain area to obtain the final floodplain calculation result.

9. A computer device comprising a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, characterized in that, When the processor executes the computer program, it implements the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that, When the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

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