Risk assessment method, risk management method, device, equipment and storage medium

Abstract

The present invention relates to the field of financial technology, and discloses a risk assessment method, a risk management method, an apparatus, a device and a storage medium, the risk assessment method comprising: if it is identified that a first software project includes a target risk, then based on a preset risk database, obtaining the historical risk data of the target risk in multiple second software projects, the first software project and the second software project have the same project type; based on the historical risk data, determining the probability of occurrence of the target risk in the first software project; obtaining the predicted loss data corresponding to the target risk and the first software project; and calculating the risk assessment data of the target risk for the first software project according to the probability of occurrence and the predicted loss data. The risk assessment method of the present invention reduces the uncertainty of the risk assessment data in the spiral model and improves the reliability and reference value of the risk assessment value.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of financial technology (Fintech), and in particular to a risk assessment method, a risk management method, an apparatus, a device and a storage medium. Background Art

[0002] With the development of computer technology, computer-related technologies (big data, software development, etc.) are being used more and more widely in the financial field, and the traditional financial industry is gradually transforming into financial technology (Fintech). The uncertainties involved in software development in the application of financial technology, such as business scope, technical means, hardware equipment, etc., are also increasing, and therefore the risks faced are also increasing.

[0003] Existing risk models generally adopt the spiral model, which is an evolutionary software development process model that emphasizes risk analysis in the software process to reduce the losses caused to the software project when risks occur. In the definition of the spiral model, the indicator for evaluating risks in software projects is called "risk exposure", and risk exposure is defined by the following formula: RE = P(UO)*L(UO), where RE is the risk exposure value, P(UO) is the probability of risk occurrence, and L(UO) is the loss caused to the software project when the risk occurs. However, in actual applications, for a project risk, the values ​​of P(UO) and L(UO) are both derived by the project risk assessor based on personal experience, that is, the values ​​of P(UO) and L(UO) are highly subjective. In this case, risk management based on RE values ​​has great uncertainty and low reliability. Summary of the invention

[0004] The main purpose of the present invention is to provide a risk assessment method, a risk management method, an apparatus, a device and a storage medium, aiming to solve the problem of low reliability of risk assessment results in the existing risk assessment method based on the spiral model.

[0005] To achieve the above object, the present invention provides a risk assessment method, which comprises the following steps:

[0006] If it is identified that the first software project includes a target risk, obtaining historical risk data of the target risk in a plurality of second software projects based on a preset risk database, the first software project and the second software project having the same project type;

[0007] Based on the historical risk data, determining the probability of occurrence of the target risk in the first software project;

[0008] Acquire predicted loss data corresponding to the target risk and the first software project;

[0009] Risk assessment data of the target risk for the first software project is calculated based on the occurrence probability and the predicted loss data.

[0010] Optionally, if it is identified that the first software project includes a target risk, the step of obtaining historical risk data of the target risk in a plurality of second software projects based on a preset risk database includes:

[0011] If it is identified that the first software project includes a target risk, determining a plurality of second software projects of the same project type as the first software project based on a preset risk database;

[0012] Based on the risk database and a preset time period, detecting the historical occurrence times of the target risk in the plurality of second software projects, and using the historical occurrence times as historical risk data;

[0013] The step of determining the probability of occurrence of the target risk in the first software project based on the historical risk data comprises:

[0014] Based on a preset matching rule, a first probability corresponding to the historical number of occurrences is matched and the first probability is used as the occurrence probability of the target risk in the first software project.

[0015] Optionally, the step of calculating risk assessment data of the target risk for the first software project according to the occurrence probability and the predicted loss data includes:

[0016] Multiplying the occurrence probability by the predicted loss data to obtain a multiplication result;

[0017] Based on a preset risk level classification rule, adding a corresponding level label to the multiplication result;

[0018] The multiplication result and the level label are used as risk assessment data of the target risk for the first software project.

[0019] In addition, the present invention also proposes a software project risk management method, the risk management method comprising:

[0020] If it is identified that the target software project includes basic risks and new risks, first risk assessment data corresponding to the basic risks is retrieved based on a preset risk database; the first risk assessment data is obtained by calculating the basic risks using the risk assessment method described in any of the above items;

[0021] Calculate the newly added risk using the risk assessment method described in any one of the above items to obtain second risk assessment data corresponding to the newly added risk;

[0022] generating a risk assessment result for the target software project according to the first risk assessment data and the second risk assessment data;

[0023] Based on the risk database, retrieve historical response data corresponding to the risk assessment result;

[0024] A response plan for the target software project is generated based on the historical response data.

[0025] Optionally, if it is identified that the target software project includes basic risks and new risks, before the step of retrieving first risk assessment data corresponding to the basic risks based on a preset risk database, the step further includes:

[0026] Based on a preset risk database and a project type of the target software project, basic risks and / or newly added risks included in the target software project are identified.

[0027] Optionally, after the step of generating a risk assessment result for the target software project according to the first risk assessment data and the second risk assessment data, the step further includes:

[0028] The newly added risk and the second risk assessment data are saved in the risk database as basic risks corresponding to the project type of the target software project.

[0029] Optionally, after the step of identifying the basic risks and / or newly added risks included in the target software project based on a preset risk database and the project type of the target software project, the step further includes:

[0030] If it is identified that the target software project includes basic risks, first risk assessment data corresponding to the basic risks are retrieved based on the risk database, where the first risk assessment data is obtained by calculating the basic risks using the risk assessment method described in any one of the above items;

[0031] A risk assessment result for the target software project is generated according to the first risk assessment data, and the process proceeds to the step of: retrieving historical response data corresponding to the risk assessment result based on the risk database.

[0032] Optionally, after the step of generating a response plan for the target software project according to the historical response data, the step further includes:

[0033] Generating risk monitoring information for the target software project according to the risk assessment result;

[0034] Based on preset display conditions, the risk monitoring information is displayed.

[0035] In addition, the present invention also provides a risk assessment device, the risk assessment device comprising:

[0036] A first acquisition module, if it is identified that the first software project includes a target risk, acquires historical risk data of the target risk in a plurality of second software projects based on a preset risk database, the first software project and the second software project having the same project type;

[0037] A determination module, configured to determine the probability of occurrence of the target risk in the first software project based on the historical risk data;

[0038] A second acquisition module is used to acquire the target risk and the predicted loss data corresponding to the first software project;

[0039] A calculation module is used to calculate the risk assessment data of the target risk for the first software project according to the occurrence probability and the predicted loss data.

[0040] Optionally, the first acquisition module includes:

[0041] A first determining unit is configured to determine, if it is identified that the first software project includes a target risk, a plurality of second software projects of the same project type as the first software project based on a preset risk database;

[0042] A detection unit, configured to detect the number of historical occurrences of the target risk in the plurality of second software projects based on the risk database and a preset time period, and use the number of historical occurrences as historical risk data;

[0043] The determination module comprises:

[0044] The second determining unit is used to match and obtain a first probability corresponding to the historical number of occurrences based on a preset matching rule, and use the first probability as the occurrence probability of the target risk in the first software project.

[0045] Optionally, the predicted loss data includes a predicted loss value and a loss level corresponding to the predicted loss value; and the calculation module includes:

[0046] a multiplication unit, used for multiplying the occurrence probability by the predicted loss data to obtain a multiplication result;

[0047] A level division unit, used for adding a corresponding level label to the multiplication result based on a preset risk level division rule;

[0048] An output unit is used to use the multiplication result and the level label as risk assessment data of the target risk for the first software project.

[0049] In addition, the present invention also proposes a software project risk management device, the device comprising:

[0050] A first calling module is used to retrieve first risk assessment data corresponding to the basic risk based on a preset risk database if it is identified that the target software project includes basic risks and new risks; the first risk assessment data is obtained by calculating the basic risk using the risk assessment device as described in any of the above items;

[0051] A calculation module, configured to calculate the newly added risk using the risk assessment device as described in any one of the above items to obtain second risk assessment data corresponding to the newly added risk;

[0052] A first generating module, configured to generate a risk assessment result for the target software project according to the first risk assessment data and the second risk assessment data;

[0053] A second calling module is used to retrieve historical response data corresponding to the risk assessment result based on the risk database;

[0054] The second generating module is used to generate a response plan for the target software project according to the historical response data.

[0055] In addition, the present invention also proposes a risk assessment device, which includes: a memory, a processor, and a risk assessment program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the risk assessment program, when executed by the processor, implements the steps of the risk assessment method described in any one of the above items.

[0056] In addition, the present invention also proposes a storage medium applied to a computer, wherein a risk assessment program is stored on the storage medium, and when the risk assessment program is executed by a processor, the steps of the risk assessment method described in any of the above items are implemented.

[0057] If the present invention identifies that a first software project includes a target risk, then based on a preset risk database, historical risk data of the target risk in multiple second software projects are obtained, and the first software project and the second software project have the same project type; based on the historical risk data, the probability of occurrence of the target risk in the first software project is determined; the predicted loss data corresponding to the target risk and the first software project are obtained; and the risk assessment data of the target risk for the first software project is calculated based on the probability of occurrence and the predicted loss data; thereby, the historical risk data of the target risk in other software projects of the same type are retrieved through the preset risk database, and the risk assessment data is calculated using the objective historical risk data, thereby avoiding the problem of low reliability of risk assessment data in the prior art, in which the probability of risk occurrence and the loss caused to the software project when the risk occurs are both obtained by the project risk assessor relying on personal experience assessment; the present invention reduces the uncertainty of risk assessment data in the spiral model and improves the reliability and reference value of the risk assessment value. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0058] Figure 1 It is a schematic diagram of the structure of the hardware operating environment involved in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0059] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the process of the first embodiment of the risk assessment method of the present invention;

[0060] Figure 3 This is a flow chart of a second embodiment of the risk assessment method of the present invention;

[0061] Figure 4 This is a flow chart of the first embodiment of the risk management method of the present invention;

[0062] Figure 5 This is a flow chart of a second embodiment of the risk management method of the present invention;

[0063] Figure 6 This is a flow chart of a third embodiment of the risk management method of the present invention;

[0064] Figure 7 Schematic diagram of the fourth embodiment of the risk management method of the present invention.

[0065] The realization of the purpose, functional features and advantages of the present invention will be further explained in conjunction with embodiments and with reference to the accompanying drawings. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0066] It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention, and are not used to limit the present invention.

[0067] like Figure 1 As shown, Figure 1 It is a structural diagram of the hardware operating environment involved in the embodiment of the present invention.

[0068] It should be noted that Figure 1 The risk assessment device of the embodiment of the present invention may be a terminal device such as a PC or a portable computer.

[0069] like Figure 1 As shown, the risk assessment device may include: a processor 1001, such as a CPU, a network interface 1004, a user interface 1003, a memory 1005, and a communication bus 1002. Among them, the communication bus 1002 is used to realize the connection and communication between these components. The user interface 1003 may include a display screen (Display), an input unit such as a keyboard (Keyboard), and the optional user interface 1003 may also include a standard wired interface and a wireless interface. The network interface 1004 may optionally include a standard wired interface and a wireless interface (such as a WI-FI interface). The memory 1005 may be a high-speed RAM memory, or a stable memory (non-volatile memory), such as a disk memory. The memory 1005 may also be a storage device independent of the aforementioned processor 1001.

[0070] Those skilled in the art will understand that Figure 1 The structure of the risk assessment device shown in the figure does not constitute a limitation on the risk assessment device, and may include more or less components than shown in the figure, or combine certain components, or arrange the components differently.

[0071] like Figure 1 As shown, the memory 1005 as a computer storage medium may include an operating system, a network communication module, a user interface module and a risk assessment program. The operating system is a program that manages and controls the hardware and software resources of the risk assessment device and supports the operation of the risk assessment program and other software or programs.

[0072] exist Figure 1 In the risk assessment device shown, the user interface 1003 is mainly used for data communication with the user end; the network interface 1004 is mainly used to connect to the background server and communicate data with the background server; and the processor 1001 can be used to call the risk assessment program stored in the memory 1005 and execute the various steps of the following risk assessment method.

[0073] Based on the above structure, various embodiments of the risk assessment method of the present invention are proposed.

[0074] Reference Figure 2 , Figure 2Schematic diagram of the first embodiment of the risk assessment method of the present invention.

[0075] The embodiments of the present invention provide embodiments of the risk assessment method. It should be noted that although a logical order is shown in the flow chart, in some cases, the steps shown or described may be performed in an order different from that shown here.

[0076] Since the existing risk management has the defects of high uncertainty and low reliability, it is very serious for banks and other financial institutions, which will lead to large errors in the overall risk assessment and thus lead to low economic benefits. Based on this, a risk assessment method is proposed.

[0077] The risk assessment method of this embodiment includes:

[0078] Step S100, if it is identified that the first software project includes a target risk, then based on a preset risk database, historical risk data of the target risk in a plurality of second software projects is obtained; the first software project and the second software project have the same project type;

[0079] In this embodiment, if it is identified that the first software project includes a target risk, historical risk data of the target risk in multiple second software projects is obtained based on a preset risk database, and the first software project and the second software project have the same project type; specifically, the project types in this embodiment include delivery projects, exploratory projects, iterative projects, etc.; the risk database pre-stores historical risk data of the second software project, and the historical risk data is the result of modularizing and saving historical risks (such as target risks) that have occurred in the second software project; the multiple second software projects can be multiple different software projects whose project types are the same as the first software project; it can be understood that, among multiple software projects of the same project type, the historical risk (such as target risk) existing in one software project is also applicable to other software projects, for example, the first software project and the second software project are both delivery projects, and there is a demand risk in the second software project: a major demand change occurs during the project implementation, and this demand risk is also applicable in the first software project, therefore, the historical risk data of the second software project is objective historical reference data for the first software project.

[0080] Step S200, determining the probability of occurrence of the target risk in the first software project based on the historical risk data;

[0081] Based on the historical risk data, the probability of occurrence of the target risk in the first software project is determined; in this example, as an implementation method, the historical risk data obtained may include the historical number of occurrences of the target risk in multiple second software projects; it can be understood that the more historical number of occurrences the target risk has in multiple second software projects, the higher the probability of occurrence of the target risk in the same type of first software projects; this embodiment divides the historical number of occurrences into multiple intervals, and different intervals correspond to different probabilities of occurrence. After the historical number of occurrences of the target risk in multiple second software projects is obtained, the probability of occurrence of the target risk in the first software project can be determined accordingly according to the interval into which the historical number of occurrences falls.

[0082] It should be noted that, in other embodiments, the specific implementation method for determining the probability of occurrence of the target risk in the first software project based on the historical risk data may also be implemented differently from the method described herein. For example, for the target risk, the historical risk data with high similarity to the target risk may be automatically matched through a machine learning similarity algorithm, and the probability of occurrence of the analogous risk may be measured and calculated to obtain an approximate probability value of the target risk. This embodiment is not specifically limited here.

[0083] Step S300, obtaining predicted loss data corresponding to the target risk and the first software project;

[0084] In this embodiment, the historical risk data also includes historical loss data corresponding to the losses caused when the target risk occurs in multiple second software projects; the predicted loss data corresponding to the target risk and the first software project is obtained. Specifically, the predicted loss data can be obtained by multiple project risk assessors based on experience values ​​and historical loss data evaluation metrics, specifically, the average value of the historical loss data corresponding to the target risk and multiple second software projects is calculated, and then the average value is corrected by multiple project risk assessors based on experience values.

[0085] Step S400: Calculate risk assessment data of the target risk for the first software project based on the occurrence probability and the predicted loss data.

[0086] In this embodiment, the risk assessment data of the target risk for the first software project is calculated based on the occurrence probability and the predicted loss data; specifically, the calculated occurrence probability and the loss value corresponding to the predicted loss data are respectively substituted into the risk exposure value calculation formula in the spiral model: RE=P(UO)*L(UO) for calculation, and the product of the occurrence probability and the predicted loss value is the risk exposure value of the target risk for the first software project, that is, the risk assessment data.

[0087] If the present embodiment identifies that the first software project includes a target risk, then based on a preset risk database, the historical risk data of the target risk in multiple second software projects are obtained, and the first software project and the second software project have the same project type; based on the historical risk data, the probability of occurrence of the target risk in the first software project is determined; the predicted loss data corresponding to the target risk and the first software project are obtained; and the risk assessment data of the target risk for the first software project is calculated based on the probability of occurrence and the predicted loss data; thus, the historical risk data of the target risk in other software projects of the same type are retrieved through the preset risk database, and the risk assessment data is calculated using the objective historical risk data, thereby avoiding the problem of low reliability of risk assessment data in the prior art, in which the probability of risk occurrence and the loss caused to the software project when the risk occurs are both obtained by the project risk assessor relying on personal experience assessment; the present embodiment reduces the uncertainty of risk assessment data in the spiral model, and improves the reliability and reference value of the risk assessment value. Through the above-mentioned embodiment, when banks and other financial institutions conduct risk assessment, the reliability of risk assessment is high, and a large amount of manpower and material resources are prevented from being spent on low-value risk assessment, reducing costs and improving overall economic benefits.

[0088] Furthermore, a second embodiment of the risk assessment method of the present invention is proposed.

[0089] Reference Figure 3 , Figure 3 The flowchart of the second embodiment of the risk assessment method of the present invention is based on the first embodiment of the risk assessment method. In this embodiment, in step S100, if it is identified that the first software project includes a target risk, then based on a preset risk database, the step of obtaining historical risk data of the target risk in multiple second software projects includes:

[0090] Step S110, if it is identified that the first software project includes a target risk, then based on a preset risk database, a plurality of second software projects of the same project type as the first software project are determined;

[0091] In this embodiment, specifically, if it is identified that the first software project includes a target risk, then based on the project type of the first software project (for example, a delivery project, an exploratory project, an iterative project, etc.), multiple second software projects of the same type as the project are retrieved from a preset risk database, and the multiple second software projects are different software projects.

[0092] Step S120, based on the risk database and a preset time period, detecting the historical occurrence times of the target risk in the plurality of second software projects, and using the historical occurrence times as historical risk data;

[0093] In this embodiment, the preset time period can be set according to actual needs. For example, it can be set to the historical number of occurrences of the target risk in the multiple second software projects in the past six months or three months. The historical number of occurrences is specifically the number of times the target risk appears in the risk assessment table of each second software project.

[0094] Furthermore, as an implementation method, the step of presetting the risk database is also included before step S110. This step specifically saves the project type and project risk management data of each software project in a modular manner, and saves the historical risk data of multiple risks in each software project under the project type of the corresponding software project. As an implementation method, the project risk management data may include project risk assessment information, project risk response information, project risk tracking information, and the like.

[0095] Furthermore, in step S200, based on the historical risk data, the step of determining the probability of occurrence of the target risk in the first software project includes:

[0096] Step S210: Based on a preset matching rule, a first probability corresponding to the historical number of occurrences is matched and the first probability is used as the occurrence probability of the target risk in the first software project.

[0097] Specifically, this embodiment defines the occurrence probability in a stepped score. It can be understood that the higher the historical number of occurrences of the target risk in multiple second software projects, the higher the probability of occurrence of the target risk in the first software project. As an implementation method, this embodiment sets the first probability corresponding to 1 historical occurrence as 0.1, the first probability corresponding to 2 historical occurrences as 0.3, the first probability corresponding to 3 historical occurrences as 0.5, the first probability corresponding to 4 historical occurrences as 0.7, and the first probability corresponding to 5 historical occurrences as 0.9. Thus, the occurrence probability is objectively quantified by the historical number of occurrences of the target risk in each second software project risk assessment table. After the historical number of occurrences of the target risk in multiple second software projects is obtained, the first probability corresponding to the historical number of occurrences can be matched, that is, the probability of occurrence of the target risk in the first software project.

[0098] Furthermore, in step S400, the step of calculating the risk assessment data of the target risk for the first software project according to the occurrence probability and the predicted loss data includes:

[0099] Step S410, multiplying the occurrence probability by the predicted loss data to obtain a multiplication result;

[0100] Step S420, adding a corresponding level label to the multiplication result based on a preset risk level classification rule;

[0101] Step S430, using the multiplication result and the level label as risk assessment data of the target risk for the first software project;

[0102] In this embodiment, the predicted loss data is defined in a step-by-step score format and is divided into predicted loss values ​​and loss levels. For example, a predicted loss value of 0.1 corresponds to a loss level of "extremely low", which means that the loss caused to the project when the target risk occurs is relatively low; a predicted loss value of 0.5 corresponds to a loss level of "general", and a predicted loss value of 0.9 corresponds to a loss level of "fatal", and so on; the occurrence probability is multiplied by the predicted loss data to obtain a multiplication result, specifically, the occurrence probability is multiplied by the predicted loss value to obtain a multiplication result, i.e., the RE value.

[0103] In the prior art, there is a situation where the probability of a certain risk occurring is relatively small (P(UO) is small), but if this risk occurs, it will bring great losses (L(UO) is large). However, in this case, the corresponding RE value is not high, and risk management based only on the RE value is likely to ignore this important risk. In this embodiment, the risk level is comprehensively evaluated and divided according to the size of the RE value and the corresponding loss level. After the division, the corresponding level label is added to the RE value. The level label may include a low risk level, a medium risk level and a high risk level. The multiplication result (RE value) and the level label are used as the risk assessment data of the target risk for the first software project, which effectively solves the above-mentioned shortcomings of the prior art.

[0104] Furthermore, after risk quantification, risks are ranked according to RE values, and the top 10 risks of the first software project are listed. Project stakeholders are regularly notified through risk assessment reports, helping the project team to effectively focus on high-risk, high-weight key factors that seriously affect project success, thereby improving the reliability and reference value of risk assessment values.

[0105] If the present embodiment identifies that the first software project includes a target risk, then based on a preset risk database, a plurality of second software projects of the same project type as the first software project are determined; based on the risk database and a preset time period, the historical number of occurrences of the target risk in the plurality of second software projects is detected, and the historical number of occurrences is used as historical risk data; based on a preset matching rule, a first probability corresponding to the historical number of occurrences is matched, and the first probability is used as the probability of occurrence of the target risk in the first software project; predicted loss data corresponding to the target risk and the first software project are obtained; based on a preset risk level classification rule, a corresponding level label is added to the multiplication result; the multiplication result and the level label are used as risk assessment data of the target risk for the first software project; thereby, the uncertainty of the risk assessment data in the spiral model is reduced, the reliability and reference value of the risk assessment value are improved, and at the same time, the situation where risks with high loss levels are ignored due to their low probability of occurrence is avoided.

[0106] Furthermore, a first embodiment of the software project risk management method of the present invention is proposed.

[0107] Reference Figure 4 , Figure 4 It is a flowchart of the first embodiment of the software project risk management method of the present invention.

[0108] The embodiment of the present invention provides an embodiment of a software project risk management method. It should be noted that although a logical sequence is shown in the flow chart, in some cases, the steps shown or described may be executed in an order different from that shown here.

[0109] The software project risk management method of this embodiment includes:

[0110] Step S10: if it is identified that the target software project includes basic risks and new risks, first risk assessment data corresponding to the basic risks is retrieved based on a preset risk database; the first risk assessment data is obtained by calculating the basic risks using the risk assessment method described in any of the above embodiments;

[0111] In this embodiment, for a target software project, the risks included in the target software project are identified. If it is identified that the target software project includes basic risks and newly added risks, first risk assessment data corresponding to the basic risks are retrieved based on a preset risk database; specifically, historical risk data of multiple other software projects of the same project type as the target software project are modularized and saved to the risk database to form basic risks corresponding to the project type; it can be understood that, among multiple software projects of the same project type, the basic risks (such as demand risks and quality risks in delivery projects, etc.) existing in one software project are also applicable to other software projects, and the first risk assessment data is obtained by calculating the basic risks using the risk assessment method described in any of the above embodiments, and the first risk assessment data is objective historical risk reference data for the target software project.

[0112] Step S20, calculating the newly added risk using the risk assessment method described in any of the above embodiments to obtain second risk assessment data corresponding to the newly added risk;

[0113] In this embodiment, for the new risks of the target software project, the risk assessment method as described in any of the above embodiments is used to calculate the new risks to obtain second risk assessment data corresponding to the new risks; this embodiment uses objective historical risk data to evaluate and calculate the new risks of the target software project, and the first risk assessment data and the second risk assessment data are both calculated based on the historical risk data, avoiding the problem of low reliability of risk assessment data in the prior art, where the probability of risk occurrence and the loss caused to the software project when the risk occurs are both evaluated by the project risk assessor based on personal experience.

[0114] Step S30, generating a risk assessment result for the target software project according to the first risk assessment data and the second risk assessment data;

[0115] In this embodiment, the first risk assessment data and the second risk assessment data are combined to form a project risk assessment table, that is, a risk assessment result. As an implementation method, the project risk assessment table includes project stage, risk description, risk category, probability P(UO), impact L(UO), risk level, etc.

[0116] Step S40, based on the risk database, retrieve historical response data corresponding to the risk assessment result;

[0117] In the prior art, risk response plans for software projects are all given by project risk assessors based on their personal experience. Risk response capabilities vary from person to person, and the quality of risk response is also uneven. This embodiment is based on a risk database and retrieves historical response data corresponding to the risk assessment results as an objective reference. The historical response data includes preventive measures, in-process and post-event controls, etc.

[0118] Step S50: generating a response plan for the target software project based on the historical response data.

[0119] Analyze and evaluate the possible impact of risks in the project risk assessment table, automatically associate historical risk response data for evaluation reference, and generate a response plan for the target software project. The plan determines the risk responsible person and his or her responsibilities, the triggering conditions, signs and early warning signals for the occurrence of risks, the specific actions required for the response strategy, and the residual risks and secondary risks that still exist after the response measures are taken, so as to implement the planned risk response strategy and reduce the losses to the software project when risks occur.

[0120] This embodiment provides a project risk management method based on a spiral model, which solves the problem that the risk identification and response capabilities vary from person to person, and the uncertainty of project risk management is high due to the lack of a project risk management process based on a spiral model in the prior art. This embodiment reduces the uncertainty of risk assessment data in software projects and improves the reliability of risk response in software projects. Through the above embodiment, when banks and other financial institutions conduct project risk management, the reliability of project risk management is high, and when making project decisions, the accuracy is also relatively high, preventing economic losses caused by low accuracy of project assessment, thereby improving economic benefits.

[0121] Furthermore, a second embodiment of the software project risk management method of the present invention is proposed.

[0122] Reference Figure 5 , Figure 5 The flowchart of the second embodiment of the software project risk management method of the present invention is based on the first embodiment of the software project risk management method. In this embodiment, in step S10, if it is identified that the target software project includes basic risks and new risks, then based on a preset risk database, before the step of retrieving first risk assessment data corresponding to the basic risks, it also includes:

[0123] Step S60: identifying basic risks and / or newly added risks included in the target software project based on a preset risk database and the project type of the target software project.

[0124] In this embodiment, specifically, for the target software project, according to the project type of the target software project, the risk database is retrieved to obtain all basic risk information corresponding to the project type, and all the retrieved basic risk information is evaluated one by one to determine whether it is applicable to the current target software project. If applicable, the basic risk is determined as the basic risk included in the target software project.

[0125] Furthermore, if new risks that are different from the basic risks are identified during the assessment process, the new risks will be registered and supplemented. The main registration elements include: project type, project stage, risk category, risk impact, risk description, etc. After registration, the risk assessment table of the target software project is obtained in combination with the basic risks.

[0126] Furthermore, after the step S30 of generating a risk assessment result for the target software project according to the first risk assessment data and the second risk assessment data, the step further includes:

[0127] Step S70: Save the newly added risk and the second risk assessment data as basic risks corresponding to the project type of the target software project in the risk database.

[0128] In this embodiment, for the newly added risks included in the identified target software project, the second risk assessment data corresponding to the newly added risks are modularized and stored in the risk database under the project type of the target software project after modularization, thereby achieving real-time updating of the risk database.

[0129] In the project risk management method of this embodiment, risk identification and risk assessment are both performed based on historical risk data in the risk database, and the risk database is updated in real time, thus avoiding the problem in the prior art of relying solely on the experience of project evaluators to identify and assess risks, resulting in high uncertainty and unsatisfactory results in risk identification and risk assessment.

[0130] Furthermore, a third embodiment of the software project risk management method of the present invention is proposed.

[0131] Reference Figure 6 , Figure 6 The flowchart of the third embodiment of the software project risk management method of the present invention is based on the second embodiment of the software project risk management method. In this embodiment, step S60, based on a preset risk database and the project type of the target software project, identifies the basic risks and / or new risks included in the target software project, and further includes:

[0132] Step S81: if it is identified that the target software project includes basic risks, first risk assessment data corresponding to the basic risks are retrieved based on the risk database, where the first risk assessment data is obtained by calculating the basic risks using any of the embodiments of the above risk assessment method;

[0133] Step S82, generating a risk assessment result for the target software project based on the first risk assessment data, and entering step S40, retrieving historical response data corresponding to the risk assessment result based on the risk database.

[0134] In this embodiment, an implementation method is given for the case where the target software project only includes basic risks. It can be understood that as the basic risks in the risk database are continuously updated and enriched, the target software project does not include new risks in the risk identification stage, and the risks it includes can all be found in the basic risks retrieved from the risk database. Then, based on the risk database, the first risk assessment data corresponding to the basic risk is retrieved, and the first risk assessment data is obtained by calculating the basic risk using the risk assessment method described in any of the above embodiments. According to the first risk assessment data, a risk assessment result for the target software project is generated, and based on the risk database, the historical response data corresponding to the risk assessment result is retrieved, and according to the historical response data, a response plan for the target software project is generated; thereby, the uncertainty of the risk assessment results in the software project is reduced, and the reliability of the risk response of the software project is improved.

[0135] Furthermore, a fourth embodiment of the software project risk management method of the present invention is proposed.

[0136] Reference Figure 7 , Figure 7 The flowchart of the fourth embodiment of the software project risk management method of the present invention is based on the first embodiment of the software project risk management method. In this embodiment, after step S50, generating a response plan for the target software project according to the historical response data, the following steps are included:

[0137] Step S91, generating risk monitoring information for the target software project according to the risk assessment result;

[0138] Step S92: displaying the risk monitoring information based on preset display conditions.

[0139] In this embodiment, during the project, the identified basic risks and new risks, the implementation of the response plan, and the process of evaluating the effectiveness of risk management are displayed in real time and transparently through effective visualization tools. As an implementation method, it can be displayed in the following ways:

[0140] 1) Risk dashboard

[0141] The risk status and risk details of each project are displayed through the risk dashboard, where: high risk is set at 10 points, medium risk at 3 points, and low risk at 1 point. When high risk + medium risk + low risk ≥10, the project will be given a red light warning, and the project needs close attention; when high risk + medium risk + low risk ≥4, the project will be given a yellow light warning, and the project needs to be kept under attention; when high risk + medium risk + low risk <4, the project will be given a green light, and the project status is healthy.

[0142] 2) Risk push

[0143] At preset fixed times, the risk details and status of each project will be pushed to project stakeholders via email, helping them to understand the health status of the project in a timely manner.

[0144] In addition, in order to improve flexibility, the project risk management method also includes: risk retrieval, risk retrieval by fields such as project type, project stage, risk category, risk level and risk label, to assist project stakeholders in easily obtaining historical risk data.

[0145] This embodiment establishes a risk visualization management tool to transparently display project risks and status in real time, solving the problem that the prior art lacks effective continuous risk monitoring and early warning means and cannot timely concentrate energy and resources to deal with related risks.

[0146] In addition, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a risk assessment device, the risk assessment device comprising:

[0147] A first acquisition module, if it is identified that the first software project includes a target risk, acquires historical risk data of the target risk in a plurality of second software projects based on a preset risk database, the first software project and the second software project having the same project type;

[0148] A determination module, configured to determine the probability of occurrence of the target risk in the first software project based on the historical risk data;

[0149] A second acquisition module is used to acquire the target risk and the predicted loss data corresponding to the first software project;

[0150] A calculation module is used to calculate the risk assessment data of the target risk for the first software project according to the occurrence probability and the predicted loss data.

[0151] Preferably, the first acquisition module includes:

[0152] A first determining unit is configured to determine, if it is identified that the first software project includes a target risk, a plurality of second software projects of the same project type as the first software project based on a preset risk database;

[0153] A detection unit, configured to detect the number of historical occurrences of the target risk in the plurality of second software projects based on the risk database and a preset time period, and use the number of historical occurrences as historical risk data;

[0154] The determination module comprises:

[0155] The second determining unit is used to match and obtain a first probability corresponding to the historical number of occurrences based on a preset matching rule, and use the first probability as the occurrence probability of the target risk in the first software project.

[0156] Preferably, the calculation module includes:

[0157] a multiplication unit, used for multiplying the occurrence probability by the predicted loss data to obtain a multiplication result;

[0158] A level division unit, used for adding a corresponding level label to the multiplication result based on a preset risk level division rule;

[0159] An output unit is used to use the multiplication result and the level label as risk assessment data of the target risk for the first software project.

[0160] The steps of implementing the risk assessment method described above when each module of the risk assessment device proposed in this embodiment is run are not described in detail here.

[0161] In addition, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a software project risk management device, the software project risk management device comprising:

[0162] A first calling module is used to retrieve first risk assessment data corresponding to the basic risk based on a preset risk database if it is identified that the target software project includes basic risks and new risks; the first risk assessment data is obtained by calculating the basic risk using the risk assessment device as described in any of the above items;

[0163] A calculation module, configured to calculate the newly added risk using the risk assessment device as described in any one of the above items to obtain second risk assessment data corresponding to the newly added risk;

[0164] A first generating module, configured to generate a risk assessment result for the target software project according to the first risk assessment data and the second risk assessment data;

[0165] A second calling module is used to retrieve historical response data corresponding to the risk assessment result based on the risk database;

[0166] The second generating module is used to generate a response plan for the target software project according to the historical response data.

[0167] The steps of the software project risk management method described above are implemented when each module of the software project risk management device proposed in this embodiment is run, and will not be repeated here.

[0168] In addition, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a risk assessment program is stored. When the risk assessment program is executed by a processor, the steps of the risk assessment method described above are implemented.

[0169] Among them, the method implemented when the risk assessment program running on the processor is executed can refer to the various embodiments of the risk assessment method of the present invention, and will not be repeated here.

[0170] It should be noted that, in this article, the terms "include", "comprises" or any other variations thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that a process, method, article or device including a series of elements includes not only those elements, but also other elements not explicitly listed, or also includes elements inherent to such process, method, article or device. In the absence of further restrictions, an element defined by the sentence "comprises a ..." does not exclude the existence of other identical elements in the process, method, article or device including the element.

[0171] The serial numbers of the above embodiments of the present invention are only for description and do not represent the advantages or disadvantages of the embodiments.

[0172] Through the description of the above implementation methods, those skilled in the art can clearly understand that the above-mentioned embodiment methods can be implemented by means of software plus a necessary general hardware platform, and of course by hardware, but in many cases the former is a better implementation method. Based on such an understanding, the technical solution of the present invention, or the part that contributes to the prior art, can be embodied in the form of a software product, which is stored in a storage medium (such as ROM / RAM, a magnetic disk, or an optical disk), and includes a number of instructions for enabling a terminal device (which can be a mobile phone, a computer, a server, an air conditioner, or a network device, etc.) to execute the methods described in each embodiment of the present invention.

[0173] The above are only preferred embodiments of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the patent scope of the present invention. Any equivalent structure or equivalent process transformation made using the contents of the present invention specification and drawings, or directly or indirectly applied in other related technical fields, are also included in the patent protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A risk assessment method, characterized in that: The risk assessment method comprises the following steps: If it is identified that the first software project includes a target risk, then based on a preset risk database, a plurality of second software projects of the same project type as the first software project are determined; the first software project and the second software project have the same project type, the project type includes a delivery project, an exploratory project, and an iterative project, the plurality of second software projects are different software projects, and the historical risk existing in one of the plurality of software projects of the same project type is also applicable to other software projects; Based on the risk database and a preset time period, detecting the historical occurrence times of the target risk in the plurality of second software projects, and using the historical occurrence times as historical risk data; Based on a preset matching rule, a first probability corresponding to the historical number of occurrences is obtained by matching, and the first probability is used as the probability of occurrence of the target risk in the first software project; Alternatively, by using a machine learning similarity algorithm, historical risks having a high similarity to the target risk are matched from the second software project; Using the probability of occurrence of the historical risk as the probability of occurrence of the target risk in the first software project; Acquire predicted loss data corresponding to the target risk and the first software project; Risk assessment data of the target risk for the first software project is calculated based on the occurrence probability and the predicted loss data.

2. The risk assessment method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step of calculating the risk assessment data of the target risk for the first software project according to the occurrence probability and the predicted loss data comprises: Multiplying the occurrence probability by the predicted loss data to obtain a multiplication result; Based on a preset risk level classification rule, adding a corresponding level label to the multiplication result; The multiplication result and the level label are used as risk assessment data of the target risk for the first software project.

3. A software project risk management method, characterized in that: The risk management approach includes: If it is identified that the target software project includes basic risks and new risks, first risk assessment data corresponding to the basic risks is retrieved based on a preset risk database; the first risk assessment data is obtained by calculating the basic risks using the risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 2; Calculate the newly added risk using the risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 2 to obtain second risk assessment data corresponding to the newly added risk; generating a risk assessment result for the target software project according to the first risk assessment data and the second risk assessment data; Based on the risk database, retrieve historical response data corresponding to the risk assessment result; A response plan for the target software project is generated based on the historical response data.

4. The software project risk management method according to claim 3, characterized in that: If it is identified that the target software project includes basic risks and new risks, before the step of retrieving first risk assessment data corresponding to the basic risks based on a preset risk database, the step further includes: Based on a preset risk database and a project type of the target software project, basic risks and / or newly added risks included in the target software project are identified.

5. The software project risk management method according to claim 4, characterized in that: After the step of generating a risk assessment result for the target software project according to the first risk assessment data and the second risk assessment data, the step further includes: The newly added risk and the second risk assessment data are saved in the risk database as basic risks corresponding to the project type of the target software project.

6. The software project risk management method according to claim 4, characterized in that: After the step of identifying the basic risks and / or new risks included in the target software project based on the preset risk database and the project type of the target software project, the following steps are further included: If it is identified that the target software project includes basic risks, first risk assessment data corresponding to the basic risks are retrieved based on the risk database, where the first risk assessment data is obtained by calculating the basic risks using the risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 2; A risk assessment result for the target software project is generated according to the first risk assessment data, and the process proceeds to the step of: retrieving historical response data corresponding to the risk assessment result based on the risk database.

7. The software project risk management method according to any one of claims 3 to 6, characterized in that: After the step of generating a response plan for the target software project based on the historical response data, the following step further includes: Generating risk monitoring information for the target software project according to the risk assessment result; Based on preset display conditions, the risk monitoring information is displayed.

8. A risk assessment device, characterized in that: The risk assessment device comprises: A first acquisition module is used for, if it is identified that the first software project includes a target risk, to obtain historical risk data of the target risk in multiple second software projects based on a preset risk database, wherein the first software project and the second software project have the same project type; the project types include delivery projects, exploratory projects and iterative projects, and the multiple second software projects are different software projects respectively, and the historical risk existing in one of the multiple software projects of the same project type is also applicable to other software projects; the first acquisition module includes: a first determination unit, used for, if it is identified that the first software project includes a target risk, to determine multiple second software projects of the same project type as the first software project based on a preset risk database; a detection unit, used for detecting the historical occurrence times of the target risk in the multiple second software projects based on the risk database and a preset time period, and using the historical occurrence times as historical risk data; A determination module, for determining the probability of occurrence of the target risk in the first software project based on the historical risk data; the determination module includes: a second determination unit, for matching to obtain a first probability corresponding to the historical number of occurrences based on a preset matching rule, and using the first probability as the probability of occurrence of the target risk in the first software project; or, matching historical risks with high similarity to the target risk from the second software project through a machine learning similarity algorithm; using the probability of occurrence of the historical risk as the probability of occurrence of the target risk in the first software project; A second acquisition module is used to acquire the target risk and the predicted loss data corresponding to the first software project; A calculation module is used to calculate the risk assessment data of the target risk for the first software project according to the occurrence probability and the predicted loss data.

9. The risk assessment device according to claim 8, characterized in that: The calculation module comprises: a multiplication unit, used for multiplying the occurrence probability by the predicted loss data to obtain a multiplication result; A level division unit, used for adding a corresponding level label to the multiplication result based on a preset risk level division rule; An output unit is used to use the multiplication result and the level label as risk assessment data of the target risk for the first software project.

10. A software project risk management device, characterized in that: The device comprises: A first calling module is used to retrieve first risk assessment data corresponding to the basic risk based on a preset risk database if it is identified that the target software project includes basic risks and new risks; the first risk assessment data is obtained by calculating the basic risk using the risk assessment device according to any one of claims 8 to 9; A calculation module, configured to calculate the newly added risk using the risk assessment device according to any one of claims 8 to 9 to obtain second risk assessment data corresponding to the newly added risk; A first generating module, configured to generate a risk assessment result for the target software project according to the first risk assessment data and the second risk assessment data; A second calling module is used to retrieve historical response data corresponding to the risk assessment result based on the risk database; The second generating module is used to generate a response plan for the target software project according to the historical response data.

11. A risk assessment device, characterized in that: The device comprises: a memory, a processor, and a risk assessment program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the risk assessment program implements the steps of the risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 2 when executed by the processor.

12. A storage medium, characterized in that: Applied to a computer, the storage medium stores a risk assessment program, and when the risk assessment program is executed by a processor, the steps of the risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 2 are implemented.

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