A method for energy grid planning based on dual carbon goals

Abstract

The present invention discloses an energy grid planning method based on dual carbon targets, the method comprising: conducting energy demand forecasting and energy structure analysis; conducting energy carbon emission assessment, calculating the carbon peak year; conducting electricity and peak-shaving balance, determining the scale of new energy and peak-shaving capacity; conducting basic power balance, determining the power grid planning scheme; studying peak load balance, determining the scale of demand-side response, energy storage, and electric vehicle response rate; conducting power carbon emission assessment, calculating the carbon peak year; comparing power and energy carbon peak years, and verifying the rationality of the scheme. The energy grid planning method based on dual carbon targets of the present invention is guided by dual carbon targets, conducts energy demand forecasting and carbon emission analysis, and formulates key indicators for power planning; establishes a strong logical relationship between power demand and planning projects through peak-shaving capacity balance, basic load balance, and peak load balance; adds power carbon emission verification in energy grid planning to improve the scientific rationality of planning schemes.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of energy and power technology, and in particular to an energy grid planning method based on dual carbon targets. Background Art

[0002] Traditional energy and power planning methods include energy supply and demand and load forecasting, power supply planning, power balance, power grid planning, etc. This method can comprehensively guide the construction of regional power sources and power grids. Traditional energy and power planning methods have the following problems:

[0003] It cannot be guided by the dual carbon goals and lacks analysis and verification of energy and electricity carbon emissions;

[0004] In the process of planning the power balance, there is a lack of analysis of new energy factors;

[0005] There is a lack of logical relationship between power sources, power grid projects and planning objectives and load forecasts, and there is a lack of planning solutions on the user load side. Summary of the invention

[0006] In response to the above technical problems in the related art, the present invention proposes an energy grid planning method based on dual carbon targets, which can overcome the above shortcomings of the prior art.

[0007] The energy grid planning method based on dual carbon targets of the present invention can be summarized as "one assessment + three balances + one verification": "one assessment" is to conduct energy carbon emission assessment and formulate carbon peak time in combination with total energy demand and structure forecasts, and to formulate key electricity indicators based on this; "three balances" are peak-shaving capacity balance, basic load balance, and peak load balance, in order to formulate new energy and peak-shaving projects, power grid projects, and user load side projects; "one verification" is electricity carbon emission verification, which determines whether the electricity carbon emissions in the planned year have reached the target and verifies the rationality of the electricity planning scheme.

[0008] To achieve the above technical objectives, the technical solution of the present invention is implemented as follows:

[0009] An energy grid planning method based on dual carbon goals, the method comprising the following steps:

[0010] (1) Conduct energy demand forecast and energy structure analysis: Based on the energy planning report data of the government energy department, forecast the total energy demand, total social electricity consumption and maximum load in the planning year; conduct energy structure analysis in combination with energy development trends;

[0011] (2) Conduct energy carbon emission assessment and calculate the carbon peak year: Use the carbon dioxide emission factor estimation method to conduct regional energy carbon emission assessment; form a carbon emission curve chart by planning the carbon emission data of each year and determine the energy carbon peak year; research and formulate key electricity indicators;

[0012] (3) Carry out power and peak-shaving balance, determine the scale and peak-shaving capacity of new energy: calculate the local renewable energy power generation through the balance of renewable energy consumption; calculate the installed capacity of various types of new energy in the planned year by analyzing the proportion of various types of renewable energy power generation and the number of hours of power generation utilization in the region; after the installed capacity of various types of new energy is determined, carry out peak-shaving capacity balance and formulate a peak-shaving power source construction and transformation plan; superimpose the load curve with the new energy output curve, calculate the system peak-to-valley difference, and then calculate the system peak-shaving capacity demand; according to the peak-shaving capacity demand, combined with the planned new power source and the peak-shaving transformation of the existing power source, determine the additional peak-shaving capacity of the power source and the pumped storage peak-shaving capacity; determine the electrochemical energy storage peak-shaving capacity by calculating the difference between the peak-shaving capacity demand and the additional peak-shaving capacity of the power source;

[0013] (4) Conduct basic power balance and determine the grid planning scheme: Conduct power balance of each voltage level of the transmission network, calculate the grid load, consider the power tight balance ratio, and calculate the scale of transformer capacity; the calculation formula for the additional transformer capacity required for a certain voltage level grid is as follows:

[0014] The additional transformer capacity required for a certain voltage level grid = the grid load of the voltage level × the power tight balance ratio × the capacity-load ratio requirement of the voltage level - the existing transformer capacity of the voltage level;

[0015] (5) Study peak load balance and determine the scale of demand-side response, energy storage, and electric vehicle response rates: The peak load of the load curve is jointly borne by demand-side response, interruptible load, electric vehicle response, and energy storage;

[0016] (6) Conduct an assessment of electricity carbon emissions and calculate the carbon peak year: After the planning scheme covering power supply, grid, load side and energy storage side is formulated, calculate the electricity carbon emissions based on the electricity balance and electricity substitution scheme:

[0017] First, refer to the regional coal consumption and gas consumption indicators, calculate the actual consumption of local power generation coal and gas based on coal-fired power and gas-fired power generation, and then calculate the power generation carbon emissions according to the carbon emission factor method; then calculate the emission reduction amount of electric energy substitution; finally, calculate the carbon emissions of electricity, and draw a carbon emission curve for electricity based on the calculation results of the carbon emissions of electricity in each planned year to determine the year when the carbon emissions of electricity reach the peak;

[0018] (7) Compare the electricity and energy carbon peak years to verify the rationality of the plan: If the electricity carbon emission peak year is less than the energy carbon emission peak year, it indicates that the energy grid planning plan is reasonable; otherwise, it is necessary to optimize the electricity balance and planning plan until the electricity carbon emission verification is passed.

[0019] Furthermore, the energy structure analysis described in step (1) includes: analyzing the consumption and proportion of coal, natural gas, and oil, analyzing the proportion of non-fossil energy, and the proportion of electricity in terminal energy consumption.

[0020] Furthermore, when conducting energy carbon emission assessment in step (2), the calculation formula for carbon emissions is as follows:

[0021] Carbon emissions = Σ a certain type of primary energy consumption × the carbon dioxide emission factor of that type of energy + electricity transferred in (out) × electricity carbon dioxide emission factor.

[0022] Furthermore, the key electricity indicators in step (2) include: the proportion of renewable energy consumption in the total electricity consumption of the society and the proportion of external electricity supply.

[0023] Furthermore, the calculation formula for local renewable energy power generation in step (3) is as follows:

[0024] Local renewable energy power generation = renewable energy consumption - external green electricity = (the proportion of renewable energy consumption in the total social electricity consumption - the proportion of external green electricity) × the total social electricity consumption;

[0025] The calculation formulas for the installed capacity of various types of new energy are as follows:

[0026] The installed capacity of a certain type of new energy = the amount of electricity generated by local renewable energy × the proportion of electricity generated by this type of new energy / the number of hours of electricity generated by this type of new energy;

[0027] The system peak load capacity requirement calculation formula is as follows:

[0028] Peak-shaving capacity requirement = system peak-to-valley difference - local power supply peak-shaving capacity - external power supply peak-shaving capacity.

[0029] Furthermore, the power tight balance ratio in step (4) refers to the ratio participating in the basic power balance at maximum load, which is 95%. The capacity-load ratio of each voltage level power grid is selected according to the grid planning and design guidelines.

[0030] Furthermore, the calculation formula of the peak balance load in step (5) is as follows:

[0031] Peak balance load of a certain type of measure = the proportion of this type of measure participating in the peak load × peak load

[0032] Among them: the peak load is 5% of the maximum load.

[0033] Furthermore, the calculation formula for power generation carbon emissions in step (6) is as follows:

[0034] Carbon emissions from power generation = coal-fired power generation / coal consumption × coal carbon emission factor + gas-fired power generation / gas consumption × natural gas carbon emission factor + imported (exported) power × electricity carbon emission factor.

[0035] Furthermore, the electric energy substitution in step (6) includes electric vehicles, rural coal-to-electricity, industrial coal-to-electricity, gas-to-electricity, etc. The emission reduction of various types of electric energy substitution is related to the carbon emission factor. The calculation formula for the emission reduction of various types of electric energy substitution is as follows:

[0036] Emission reduction due to electricity substitution = Σa certain type of electricity substitution amount × carbon emission factor of that type of energy.

[0037] Furthermore, the carbon emissions from electricity are calculated as follows:

[0038] Electricity carbon emissions = power generation carbon emissions – electricity substitution carbon emissions reductions.

[0039] Beneficial effects of the invention: The energy grid planning method based on dual carbon targets of the invention is guided by the dual carbon targets, conducts energy demand forecasting and carbon emission analysis, and formulates key indicators for power planning; establishes a strong logical relationship between power demand and planning projects through peak-shaving capacity balance, basic load balance, and peak load balance; adds power carbon emission verification to energy grid planning to improve the scientific rationality of the planning scheme. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0040] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0041] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of an energy grid planning method based on dual carbon targets according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0042] The following will be combined with the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field belong to the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0043] like Figure 1 As shown, according to the energy grid planning method based on dual carbon goals described in an embodiment of the present invention, the method includes the following steps:

[0044] (1) Carry out energy demand forecast and energy structure analysis;

[0045] Based on the energy planning report data of the government energy department, the total energy demand, total social electricity consumption and maximum load of the planning year are predicted by using the growth rate method, scenario analysis method and other methods. Combined with the development trends of various energy sources, energy structure analysis is carried out to analyze the consumption and proportion of coal, natural gas and oil, the proportion of non-fossil energy and the proportion of electricity in terminal energy consumption.

[0046] (2) Conduct energy carbon emission assessment and calculate the carbon peak year;

[0047] The carbon dioxide emission factor estimation method is used to carry out regional energy carbon emission assessment. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0048] Carbon emissions = Σconsumption of a certain type of primary energy × CO2 emission factor of that type of energy + electricity input (output) × electricity CO2 emission factor

[0049] Among them: The definition of carbon dioxide emission factor is the carbon dioxide emissions generated per unit of energy during the combustion or use of a certain type of energy. The values ​​of carbon dioxide emission factors for various primary energy sources are shown in the following table.

[0050]

[0051] The carbon dioxide emission factor of the electricity transferred in (out) refers to the average carbon dioxide emission factor data of the provincial power grid, as shown in the following table:

[0052]

[0053] By planning the carbon emission data for each year, a carbon emission curve chart is formed and the year when energy carbon peaks is determined.

[0054] In order to ensure the achievement of the carbon peak target, key electricity indicators are studied and formulated, including: the proportion of renewable energy consumption in total social electricity consumption and the proportion of external (green) electricity.

[0055] (3) Carry out power and peak load balance, determine the scale of new energy and peak load capacity

[0056] The local renewable energy power generation is calculated by balancing the amount of electricity consumed by renewable energy. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0057] Local renewable energy power generation = renewable energy consumption - external green power = (renewable energy consumption as a percentage of total social electricity consumption - external green power ratio) × total social electricity consumption

[0058] By analyzing the proportion of various types of renewable energy power generation and power generation hours in this region, the installed capacity of various types of new energy in the planning year is calculated. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0059] The installed capacity of a certain type of renewable energy = the amount of electricity generated by local renewable energy × the proportion of electricity generated by this type of renewable energy / the number of hours of electricity generated by this type of renewable energy

[0060] After the installed capacity of various types of new energy sources is determined, peak-shaving capacity balance is carried out and a peak-shaving power source construction and transformation plan is formulated. The load curve is superimposed with the new energy output curve, the system peak-to-valley difference is calculated, and then the system peak-shaving capacity demand is calculated. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0061] Peak load capacity requirement = system peak-valley difference - local power supply peak load capacity - external power supply peak load capacity

[0062] According to the peak-shaving capacity demand, combined with the planning of new power sources and the peak-shaving transformation of existing power sources, the additional peak-shaving capacity of the power source and the peak-shaving capacity of pumped storage are determined. Finally, the peak-shaving capacity of electrochemical energy storage is determined by calculating the difference between the peak-shaving capacity demand and the additional peak-shaving capacity of the power source.

[0063] (4) Carry out basic power balance and determine the grid planning scheme

[0064] Carry out power balance at each voltage level of the transmission network, calculate the network load, consider the power tight balance ratio, and calculate the scale of transformer capacity. The calculation formula for the additional transformer capacity required for a certain voltage level grid is as follows:

[0065] The additional transformer capacity required for a certain voltage level grid = the grid load of the voltage level × the power tight balance ratio × the capacity-load ratio requirement of the voltage level - the existing transformer capacity of the voltage level

[0066] Among them: the power tight balance ratio refers to the proportion participating in the basic power balance at maximum load, which is generally 95%; the capacity load ratio of each voltage level power grid is selected according to the power grid planning and design guidelines.

[0067] (5) Study peak load balance and determine the scale of demand-side response, energy storage, and electric vehicle response rate

[0068] The peak load of the load curve is jointly borne by demand-side response, interruptible load, electric vehicle response, and energy storage. The calculation formula for the peak balancing load of various measures is as follows:

[0069] Peak balance load of a certain type of measure = the proportion of this type of measure participating in the peak load × peak load

[0070] Among them: the peak load is generally 5% of the maximum load.

[0071] (6) Conduct electricity carbon emissions assessment and calculate the carbon peak year;

[0072] After the planning scheme including power source, grid, load side and energy storage side is formulated, the carbon emissions of electricity are calculated according to the electricity balance and electricity substitution scheme:

[0073] First, refer to the regional coal consumption and gas consumption indicators, calculate the actual consumption of local coal and gas for power generation based on coal-fired power and gas-fired power generation, and then calculate the carbon emissions of power generation according to the carbon emission factor method. The formula for calculating carbon emissions from power generation is as follows:

[0074] Carbon emissions from power generation = coal-fired power generation / coal consumption × coal carbon emission factor + gas-fired power generation / gas consumption × natural gas carbon emission factor + imported (exported) power × power carbon emission factor

[0075] Then, calculate the emission reduction of electricity substitution. Electricity substitution includes electric vehicles, rural coal-to-electricity, industrial coal-to-electricity, gas-to-electricity, etc. The emission reduction of various types of electricity substitution is related to the carbon emission factor. The specific calculation formula is as follows:

[0076] Electricity substitution emission reduction = Σ certain type of electricity substitution amount × carbon emission factor of this type of energy

[0077] Finally, calculate the carbon emissions of electricity using the following formula:

[0078] Electricity carbon emissions = power generation carbon emissions - electricity substitution carbon emissions

[0079] Based on the calculation results of electricity carbon emissions in each planned year, draw an electricity carbon emissions curve chart and determine the year in which electricity carbon emissions will peak.

[0080] (7) Compare the peak years of electricity and energy carbon emissions to verify the rationality of the plan;

[0081] To achieve the dual carbon goals, electricity is a key area for energy carbon dioxide emissions reduction, so the carbon peak time of electricity should be shorter than the carbon peak time of energy.

[0082] The patent of this invention verifies the rationality of the electricity balance and planning scheme based on the comparison of the electricity carbon peak year and the energy carbon peak year: if the electricity carbon emission peak year is less than the energy carbon peak year, it indicates that the energy grid planning scheme is reasonable; otherwise, it is necessary to optimize the electricity balance and planning scheme until the electricity carbon emission verification is passed.

[0083] To sum up, with the help of the above-mentioned technical scheme of the present invention, the energy grid planning method based on dual carbon targets of the present invention is guided by the dual carbon targets to carry out energy demand forecasting and carbon emission analysis to formulate key indicators of power planning; through peak-shaving capacity balance, basic load balance, and peak load balance, a strong logical relationship between power demand and planning projects is established; power carbon emission verification is added to energy grid planning to improve the scientific rationality of the planning scheme.

[0084] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. An energy grid planning method based on dual carbon goals, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: (1) Conduct energy demand forecast and energy structure analysis: Based on the energy planning report data of the government energy department, forecast the total energy demand, total social electricity consumption and maximum load in the planning year; conduct energy structure analysis in combination with energy development trends; (2) Conduct energy carbon emission assessment and calculate the carbon peak year: Use the carbon dioxide emission factor estimation method to conduct regional energy carbon emission assessment; form a carbon emission curve chart by planning the carbon emission data of each year and determine the energy carbon peak year; research and formulate key indicators for electricity; (3) Carry out power and peak-shaving balance, determine the scale and peak-shaving capacity of new energy: calculate the local renewable energy power generation through the balance of renewable energy consumption; calculate the installed capacity of various types of new energy in the planned year by analyzing the proportion of power generation of various types of renewable energy in the region and the number of hours of power generation; after the installed capacity of various types of new energy is determined, carry out peak-shaving capacity balance and formulate a peak-shaving power source construction and transformation plan; superimpose the load curve with the new energy output curve, calculate the system peak-to-valley difference, and then calculate the system peak-shaving capacity demand; according to the peak-shaving capacity demand, combined with the planned new power source and the peak-shaving transformation of the existing power source, determine the additional peak-shaving capacity of the power source and the peak-shaving capacity of the pumped storage; determine the electrochemical energy storage peak-shaving capacity by calculating the difference between the peak-shaving capacity demand and the additional peak-shaving capacity of the power source; (4) Conduct basic power balance and determine the grid planning scheme: Conduct power balance of each voltage level of the transmission network, calculate the grid load, consider the power tight balance ratio, and calculate the scale of transformer capacity; the calculation formula for the additional transformer capacity required for a certain voltage level grid is as follows: The additional transformer capacity required for a certain voltage level grid = the grid supply load of the voltage level × the power tight balance ratio × the capacity-load ratio requirement of the voltage level - the existing transformer capacity of the voltage level; (5) Study peak load balance and determine the scale of demand-side response, energy storage, and electric vehicle response rates: The peak load of the load curve is jointly borne by demand-side response, interruptible load, electric vehicle response, and energy storage; (6) Conduct an assessment of electricity carbon emissions and calculate the year of carbon peak: After the planning scheme covering power supply, grid, load side and energy storage side is formulated, calculate the electricity carbon emissions based on the electricity balance and electricity substitution scheme: First, refer to the regional coal consumption and gas consumption indicators, calculate the actual consumption of local coal and gas for power generation based on coal-fired power and gas-fired power generation, and then calculate the carbon emissions of power generation according to the carbon emission factor method; then calculate the emission reduction amount of electricity substitution; Finally, calculate the carbon emissions of electricity, draw a graph of carbon emissions of electricity based on the calculation results of carbon emissions of electricity in each year of the plan, and determine the year when carbon emissions of electricity reach their peak; (7) Compare the carbon peak years of electricity and energy, and verify the rationality of the plan: If the carbon peak year of electricity is less than the carbon peak year of energy, it indicates that the energy grid planning plan is reasonable; otherwise, it is necessary to optimize the electricity balance and planning plan until the electricity carbon emission verification is passed.

2. The energy grid planning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The energy structure analysis described in step (1) includes: analyzing the consumption and proportion of coal, natural gas and oil, analyzing the proportion of non-fossil energy and the proportion of electricity in terminal energy consumption.

3. The energy grid planning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: When conducting energy carbon emission assessment in step (2), the calculation formula for carbon emissions is as follows: Carbon emissions = Σ a certain type of primary energy consumption × the carbon dioxide emission factor of that type of energy + electricity transferred in or out × electricity carbon dioxide emission factor.

4. The energy grid planning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The key electricity indicators in step (2) include: the proportion of renewable energy consumption in the total electricity consumption of the society and the proportion of external electricity.

5. The energy grid planning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculation formula for local renewable energy power generation in step (3) is as follows: Local renewable energy power generation = renewable energy consumption - external green electricity = (the proportion of renewable energy consumption in the total social electricity consumption - the proportion of external green electricity) × the total social electricity consumption; The calculation formulas for the installed capacity of various types of new energy are as follows: The installed capacity of a certain type of new energy = the amount of electricity generated by local renewable energy × the proportion of electricity generated by this type of new energy / the number of hours of electricity generated by this type of new energy; The system peak load capacity requirement calculation formula is as follows: Peak-shaving capacity requirement = system peak-to-valley difference - local power supply peak-shaving capacity - external power supply peak-shaving capacity.

6. The energy grid planning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The power tight balance ratio in step (4) refers to the ratio participating in the basic power balance at the maximum load, which is 95%. The capacity load ratio of each voltage level grid is selected according to the grid planning and design guidelines.

7. The energy grid planning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculation formula for the peak balance load in step (5) is as follows: Peak balance load of a certain type of measure = the proportion of this type of measure participating in the peak load × peak load Among them: the peak load is 5% of the maximum load.

8. The energy grid planning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculation formula for power generation carbon emissions in step (6) is as follows: Carbon emissions from power generation = coal-fired power generation / coal consumption × coal carbon emission factor + gas-fired power generation / gas consumption × natural gas carbon emission factor + power transferred in or out × electricity carbon emission factor.

9. The energy grid planning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The electric energy substitution mentioned in step (6) includes electric vehicles, rural coal-to-electricity, industrial coal-to-electricity, and gas-to-electricity. The emission reduction of each type of electric energy substitution is related to the carbon emission factor. The calculation formula for the emission reduction of each type of electric energy substitution is as follows: Emission reduction due to electricity substitution = Σa certain type of electricity substitution amount × carbon emission factor of that type of energy.

10. The energy grid planning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The carbon emissions from electricity are calculated as follows: Electricity carbon emissions = power generation carbon emissions – electricity substitution carbon emissions reductions.

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