An evaluation system and method for the cross-line operation transportation plan of rail transit

Abstract

The present invention discloses a system and method for evaluating the operation and transportation plan of rail transit across lines. By obtaining system parameters, cross-line operation simulation is carried out according to the system parameters to obtain simulation results; the simulation results are evaluated and verified to obtain evaluation and verification results; theoretical evaluation is carried out on the operation and transportation plan in the system parameters to obtain theoretical evaluation results; difference calculation is carried out according to the evaluation and verification results and the theoretical evaluation results to obtain a decision result; it is judged whether the decision result meets a preset condition. If the preset condition is met, the final cross-line operation and transportation plan is output; otherwise, the operation and transportation plan is adjusted, and the adjusted operation and transportation plan is used as the system parameter and returned to the initial step. Through the above steps, the advance layout and quality evaluation of the cross-line operation and transportation plan can be realized, a highly credible rail transit cross-line operation decision can be obtained, and thus the efficiency and quality of rail cross-line operation management can be realized.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to, in particular, a system and method for evaluating the operation plan of rail transit cross-line operation. Background Art

[0002] With the continuous advancement of urbanization and the rapid development of the regional public transportation system in China, the operation and dispatching of the rail transit system in China tend to be more regionalized and integrated. The traditional operation mode of "single line, single operation section, and stop at every station" can no longer meet the passengers' demand for fast and direct access to the rail transit system. The interconnection and cross-line operation mode among urban rail transit lines have become a development trend and are attracting more and more social attention. Cross-line operation is an operation mode in which trains operate in a cross-line form in the rail transit network under the conditions that the capacity of the rail transit lines and stations allows, the technologies such as communication signals, system power supply, and vehicle gauges are unified, and the operation management is centralized. Considering that cross-line operation is the main development direction under the concept of interconnection of urban rail transit in China, it is necessary to establish a decision-making service system for urban rail transit cross-line operation to provide a theoretical basis and decision-making support for the implementation of cross-line operation in urban rail transit in China.

[0003] Although some relevant scholars have conducted relevant research on the evaluation of cross-line operation effects and the compilation of cross-line train operation plans, there is still a lack of a method for prior decision-making evaluation of operation plans to provide decision-making support for the operation department.

[0004] In view of this, the present application is specifically proposed. Summary of the Invention

[0005] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is that the prior art cannot optimize the layout of the rail transit cross-line operation plan in advance. The purpose is to provide a system and method for evaluating the rail transit cross-line operation plan, which iteratively optimizes the rail transit cross-line operation plan through cross-line operation simulation and quality evaluation, obtains a highly credible decision for rail transit cross-line operation, and thus realizes the efficiency and quality of rail transit cross-line operation management.

[0006] The present invention is realized by the following technical solutions:

[0007] On the one hand, the present invention provides a system for evaluating the rail transit cross-line operation plan, including:

[0008] A data management module, configured to obtain system parameters and send the system parameters to the simulation module and the evaluation module; the system parameters include: operation basic data, passenger flow data, and operation plan.

[0009] A simulation module, configured to perform cross-line operation simulation according to the system parameters, send the simulation verification result to the evaluation module for evaluation and verification, receive the evaluation and verification result feedback by the evaluation module, and send the evaluation and verification result to the decision-making module;

[0010] An evaluation module, configured to perform theoretical evaluation on the operation and transportation plan, and send the theoretical evaluation result to the decision-making module;

[0011] A decision-making module, configured to perform difference calculation according to the evaluation and verification result and the theoretical evaluation result to obtain a decision result, and send the decision result to the human-computer interaction module;

[0012] A human-computer interaction module, configured to determine whether the decision result meets a preset condition. If the preset condition is met, output the final cross-line operation and transportation plan; otherwise, adjust the operation and transportation plan, and send the adjusted operation and transportation plan as system parameters to the data management module.

[0013] As a further description of the present invention, the simulation module includes:

[0014] A time management unit, configured to generate a time stamp and send the time stamp to the passenger flow control unit, the train control unit, and the simulation data management unit;

[0015] A passenger flow control unit, configured to generate station passenger flow status information according to the time stamp and the passenger flow data, and send the station passenger flow status information to the simulation data management unit;

[0016] A train control unit, configured to generate train operation status information and the execution effect of the train transportation plan according to the time stamp and the operation and transportation plan, and send the train operation status information and the execution effect of the train transportation plan to the simulation data management unit;

[0017] A simulation data management unit, configured to, before simulation, construct a rail transit topology network according to the system data and generate alternative road network paths; during simulation, perform train cross-line operation simulation according to the rail transit topology network, the alternative road network paths, the time stamp, the passenger flow status information, the train operation status information, and the execution effect of the train transportation plan to obtain a simulation result, and send the simulation result to the evaluation model.

[0018] As a further description of the present invention, the evaluation module includes:

[0019] An evaluation index construction unit, configured to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system including supply-demand adaptability index, operation quality index, transportation satisfaction index, and management efficiency index;

[0020] A comprehensive weight calculation unit is configured to perform the following operations on each index in the comprehensive evaluation index system: determining the subjective weight of the index using the analytic hierarchy process, determining the objective weight of the index using the entropy weight method, and combining and optimizing the subjective weight and the objective weight using the linear weighting method to obtain the comprehensive weight of the index;

[0021] A normal cloud digital feature calculation unit is configured to establish a normal cloud model of the comprehensive evaluation index system and calculate the cloud model digital features of each index in the normal cloud model;

[0022] A cloud model membership degree calculation unit is configured to calculate the cloud membership degree between the normal cloud model and each index to obtain a comprehensive judgment matrix;

[0023] A comprehensive evaluation grade judgment unit is configured to calculate the comprehensive evaluation grade of the cross-line operation transportation plan according to the comprehensive weight of each index and the comprehensive judgment matrix to obtain an evaluation result.

[0024] As a further description of the present invention, the decision-making module includes:

[0025] A difference calculation unit is configured to calculate the index difference value between each index in the theoretical evaluation result and the corresponding index in the evaluation verification result;

[0026] A comprehensive difference calculation unit is configured to calculate the comprehensive difference value between the theoretical evaluation result and the evaluation verification result according to the comprehensive weight of the index and the index difference value;

[0027] A decision output unit is configured to judge the magnitude of the comprehensive difference value and output a decision result according to the judgment result.

[0028] As a further description of the present invention, the human-computer interaction module includes:

[0029] An adjustment suggestion output unit is configured to output an operation transportation adjustment suggestion according to the decision result;

[0030] An adjustment measure output unit is configured to formulate an operation transportation adjustment plan according to the operation transportation adjustment suggestion and send the adjusted operation transportation plan to the data management module as a system parameter.

[0031] On the other hand, the present invention provides a method for evaluating a cross-line operation transportation plan of rail transit, including the following steps:

[0032] S1: Obtaining system parameters, where the system parameters include: operation basic data, passenger flow data, and operation transportation plans;

[0033] S2: Performing cross-line operation simulation according to the system parameters to obtain a simulation result;

[0034] S3: Evaluate and verify the simulation results to obtain an evaluation and verification result;

[0035] S4: The operation and transportation plan in the system parameters is theoretically evaluated to obtain a theoretical evaluation result;

[0036] S5: Calculate the difference based on the evaluation and verification result and the theoretical evaluation result to obtain a decision result;

[0037] S6: Determine whether the decision result meets the preset conditions. If it meets the preset conditions, output the final cross-line operation and transportation plan; otherwise, adjust the operation and transportation plan, use the adjusted operation and transportation plan as system parameters, and return to S1.

[0038] As a further description of the present invention, the cross-line operation simulation includes: building a simulation environment and performing cross-line operation and transportation simulation in the simulation environment;

[0039] Building the simulation environment includes:

[0040] Construct a rail transit topology network according to the system parameters;

[0041] Use the K-shortest path method to generate alternative road network paths for the rail transit topology network;

[0042] The cross-line operation and transportation simulation includes:

[0043] Perform passenger flow simulation according to the passenger flow data to obtain station passenger flow status information;

[0044] Perform train operation simulation according to the operation and transportation plan to obtain train operation status information and the execution effect of the train transportation plan;

[0045] Update the number of passengers on the train, the spatial position of passengers, and the relationship between the train and passengers according to the station passenger flow status information, the train operation status information, and the execution effect of the train transportation plan to obtain simulation results.

[0046] As a further description of the present invention, S4 includes:

[0047] Construct a comprehensive evaluation index system for the cross-line operation and transportation plan. The comprehensive evaluation index system includes: supply-demand adaptability index, operation quality index, transportation satisfaction index, and management efficiency index;

[0048] For each index in the comprehensive evaluation index system, perform the following operations: use the analytic hierarchy process to determine the subjective weight of the index, use the entropy weight method to determine the objective weight of the index, and use the linear weighted method to combine and optimize the subjective weight and the objective weight to obtain the comprehensive weight of the index;

[0049] Establish a normal cloud model for the comprehensive evaluation index system, and obtain the digital characteristics of the cloud model for each index in the normal cloud model;

[0050] Obtain the cloud membership degree between the normal cloud model and each index to obtain a comprehensive judgment matrix;

[0051] Obtain the comprehensive evaluation level of the effect of the cross-line operation transportation plan according to the comprehensive weight of each index and the comprehensive judgment matrix to obtain the evaluation result.

[0052] As a further description of the present invention, the S5 includes:

[0053] Obtain the index difference value between each index in the theoretical evaluation result and the corresponding index in the evaluation verification result;

[0054] Obtain the comprehensive difference value between the theoretical evaluation result and the evaluation verification result according to the comprehensive weight of the index and the index difference value;

[0055] Set a threshold;

[0056] If the absolute value of the comprehensive difference value ≤ the threshold, the decision result is: there is no difference between the theoretical evaluation result and the evaluation verification result, and the operation transportation plan can be directly output; otherwise, the decision result is: it is necessary to further evaluate and adjust the operation transportation plan.

[0057] As a further description of the present invention, the adjustment of the operation transportation plan includes:

[0058] Judge the magnitude and attribute of the index difference value between each index in the theoretical evaluation result and the corresponding index in the evaluation verification result; if the index difference value = 0, output the final operation transportation plan;

[0059] If the index difference value ≥ 0 and it is a positive index, or the index difference value ≤ 0 and it is a negative index, give suggestions for adjusting the operation transportation;

[0060] Formulate operation transportation adjustment measures according to the operation transportation adjustment suggestions to obtain the adjusted operation transportation plan.

[0061] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following advantages and beneficial effects:

[0062] 1. A rail transit cross-line operation transportation plan evaluation system and method provided by an embodiment of the present invention can realize the advance layout and quality evaluation of the cross-line operation transportation plan, obtain a highly credible rail transit cross-line operation decision, and thus realize the efficiency and quality of rail cross-line operation management;

[0063] 2. The rail transit cross-line operation transportation plan evaluation system and method provided by the embodiments of the present invention adopt an evaluation method based on the AHP-entropy weight-extensible cloud model, which breaks through the problems that the traditional evaluation method cannot well represent the uncertainty in the evaluation process and the weak relevance between the evaluation method and the evaluation index system.

[0064] 3. The rail transit cross-line operation transportation plan evaluation system and method provided by the embodiments of the present invention construct a comprehensive evaluation index system to comprehensively evaluate the quality of the cross-line transportation operation plan, thereby improving the credibility of the plan. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0065] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the exemplary embodiments of the present invention, the drawings required for use in the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. It should be understood that the following drawings only show some embodiments of the present invention and should not be regarded as limiting the scope. For those of ordinary skill in the art, other related drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative efforts.

[0066] Figure 1 It is a schematic diagram of the overall structure of the rail transit cross-line operation transportation plan evaluation system provided in Embodiment 1 of the present invention;

[0067] Figure 2 It is a schematic diagram of the structure and operation logic of the simulation module provided in Embodiment 1 of the present invention;

[0068] Figure 3 It is a schematic diagram of the process of the rail transit cross-line operation transportation plan evaluation method provided in Embodiment 2 of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EMBODIMENTS

[0069] To make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearer, the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the embodiments and the drawings. The illustrative embodiments and descriptions thereof of the present invention are only used to explain the present invention and are not intended to limit the present invention.

[0070] Embodiment 1

[0071] Since the prior art cannot optimize the layout of the rail transit cross-line operation transportation plan in advance, this embodiment provides a rail transit cross-line operation transportation plan evaluation system, and the overall structure of the system is as Figure 1 shown. It includes:

[0072] A data management module, configured to obtain system parameters and send the system parameters to the simulation module and the evaluation module; the system parameters include: operation basic data, passenger flow data, and operation transportation plans;

[0073] A simulation module, configured to perform cross-line operation simulation based on the system parameters, send the simulation verification results to the evaluation module for evaluation and verification, receive the evaluation and verification results feedback by the evaluation module, and send the evaluation and verification results to the decision-making module;

[0074] An evaluation module, configured to perform theoretical evaluation on the operation and transportation plan, and send the theoretical evaluation results to the decision-making module;

[0075] A decision-making module, configured to perform difference calculation based on the evaluation and verification results and the theoretical evaluation results to obtain a decision result, and send the decision result to the human-computer interaction module;

[0076] A human-computer interaction module, configured to determine whether the decision result meets the preset conditions. If the preset conditions are met, the final cross-line operation and transportation plan is output; otherwise, the operation and transportation plan is adjusted, and the adjusted operation and transportation plan is sent to the data management module as the system parameters.

[0077] Among them,

[0078] The data management module receives the parameters transmitted by the human-computer interaction module, and at the same time sends the parameter data to the evaluation module and the simulation module. The parameter data includes, but is not limited to, basic data, passenger flow data, and transportation plan data. Among them, the basic data includes line and station (road network topology) location information, line transportation capacity, station platform accommodation capacity, policy organization structure information, train type, and train passenger capacity, etc.; the passenger flow data includes road network OD passenger flow data and inbound and outbound passenger flow data, etc.; the transportation plan data includes interval running time, stop time, turnaround time, origin and destination stations, formation content, and train operation plan, etc. It should be noted that the transportation plan data changes in each round of evaluation.

[0079] The simulation module includes:

[0080] A time management unit, configured to generate a time stamp, and send the time stamp to the passenger flow control unit, the train control unit, and the simulation data management unit, so as to control the simulation state.

[0081] A passenger flow control unit, configured to generate station passenger flow status information according to the time stamp and the passenger flow data, and send the station passenger flow status information to the simulation data management unit; among them, the passenger flow status information includes OD passenger flow demand and passenger flow arrival time distribution within a certain time period.

[0082] The train control unit is used to generate train operation status information and the execution effect of the train operation plan according to the time stamp and the operation and transportation plan, and send the train operation status information and the execution effect of the train operation plan to the simulation data management unit. Specifically, the train control unit receives the time stamp, the planned train timetable, the tracking interval constraint, and the starting and stopping additional time from the data management module and the time management unit, updates the train status and the simulation operation diagram according to the delay probability, and sends them to the simulation data management unit.

[0083] The simulation data management unit, as Figure 2 shown, is used to receive the passenger capacity of the train and the platform capacity from the data management module. Before the simulation, construct the rail transit topology network according to the system data and generate the alternative paths of the road network by using the K - shortest path method; during the simulation, perform the train cross - line operation and transportation simulation according to the rail transit topology network, the alternative paths of the road network, the time stamp, the passenger flow status information, the train operation status information, and the execution effect of the train operation plan, obtain the simulation results, including the number of passengers on the train, the spatial position of the passengers, and the relationship between the train and the passengers, etc., and send the simulation results to the evaluation model.

[0084] The evaluation module includes:

[0085] The evaluation index construction unit is used to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system including supply - demand adaptability index, operation quality index, transportation satisfaction index, and management efficiency index;

[0086] The comprehensive weight calculation unit is used to perform the following operations on each index in the comprehensive evaluation index system: determine the subjective weight of the index by using the analytic hierarchy process, determine the objective weight of the index by using the entropy weight method, and perform combined optimization on the subjective weight and the objective weight by using the linear weighted method to obtain the comprehensive weight of the index;

[0087] The normal cloud digital feature calculation unit is used to establish the normal cloud model of the comprehensive evaluation index system and calculate the cloud model digital features of each index in the normal cloud model;

[0088] The cloud model membership degree calculation unit is used to calculate the cloud membership degree between the normal cloud model and each index to obtain a comprehensive judgment matrix;

[0089] The comprehensive evaluation level judgment unit is used to calculate the comprehensive evaluation level of the effect of the cross - line operation and transportation plan according to the comprehensive weight of each index and the comprehensive judgment matrix to obtain the evaluation result.

[0090] The decision - making module includes:

[0091] The difference calculation unit is used to calculate the index difference value between each index in the theoretical evaluation result and the corresponding index in the evaluation and verification result;

[0092] A comprehensive difference calculation unit is used to calculate the comprehensive difference value between the theoretical evaluation result and the evaluation verification result according to the comprehensive weight of the index and the index difference value;

[0093] A decision output unit is used to judge the magnitude of the comprehensive difference value and output a decision result according to the judgment result.

[0094] The human-computer interaction module includes:

[0095] An adjustment suggestion output unit is used to output an operation and transportation adjustment suggestion according to the decision result;

[0096] An adjustment measure output unit is used to formulate an operation and transportation adjustment plan according to the operation and transportation adjustment suggestion, and send the adjusted operation and transportation plan to the data management module as system parameters.

[0097] Embodiment 2

[0098] Corresponding to a rail transit cross-line operation and transportation plan evaluation system provided in Embodiment 1, this embodiment provides a method for evaluating a rail transit cross-line operation and transportation plan, and its method flow is as Figure 3 shown, specifically including the following steps:

[0099] S1: Obtain system parameters, where the system parameters include: operation basic data, passenger flow data, and operation and transportation plan. Among them, the system parameters include tracking interval constraints, starting and stopping additional time, updating the train status according to the late probability (put into the operation plan) and simulating the operation, but not limited to basic data, passenger flow data, and transportation plan data. Basic data: line and station (road network topology) location information, line transportation capacity, station platform accommodation capacity, policy organization structure information, train type, train capacity; Passenger flow data: road network OD passenger flow data, inbound and outbound passenger flow data; Transportation plan data: interval running time, stop time, turnaround time, origin and destination stations, formation content, train routing plan. Among them, the transportation plan data changes in each round of evaluation.

[0100] S2: Perform cross-line operation simulation according to the system parameters to obtain a simulation result. Among them,

[0101] The cross-line operation simulation includes: building a simulation environment and performing cross-line operation and transportation simulation in the simulation environment;

[0102] The building of the simulation environment includes:

[0103] S21: Construct a rail transit topology network according to the system parameters;

[0104] S22: Use the K-shortest path method to generate the alternative paths of the road network of the rail transit topology network;

[0105] The cross-line operation transportation simulation includes the following:

[0106] S23: Conduct passenger flow simulation based on the passenger flow data to obtain station passenger flow status information;

[0107] S24: Conduct train operation simulation based on the operation transportation plan to obtain train operation status information and the execution effect of the train transportation plan;

[0108] S25: Update the number of passengers on the train, the spatial positions of passengers, and the relationship between the train and passengers according to the station passenger flow status information, the train operation status information, and the execution effect of the train transportation plan to obtain the simulation result.

[0109] S3: Evaluate and verify the simulation result to obtain the evaluation and verification result.

[0110] S4: Conduct a theoretical evaluation of the operation transportation plan in the system parameters to obtain the theoretical evaluation result. Specifically, it includes the following steps:

[0111] S41: Construct a comprehensive evaluation index system for the cross-line operation transportation plan. The construction of evaluation indexes is the basis for the evaluation of the cross-line operation transportation plan. In this embodiment, considering the characteristics of the cross-line operation mode, starting from four aspects of supply-demand adaptability, operation quality, transportation satisfaction, and management efficiency, a comprehensive evaluation index system is constructed. The constructed comprehensive evaluation index system includes: supply-demand adaptability indexes, operation quality indexes, transportation satisfaction indexes, and management efficiency indexes.

[0112] Among them,

[0113] The supply-demand adaptability indexes are mainly used to evaluate the necessity of implementing the cross-line operation mode and to observe the adaptability of passenger flow to the operation mode during cross-line operation as a whole. The included sub-indexes are: cross-line passenger flow interaction rate, passenger density on the platform of the connecting station, which are expressed by formulas (1) and (2):

[0114]

[0115]

[0116] In the formula, Q 跨线 refers to the interactive passenger flow in the service section of the cross-line train, Q 总 refers to the total passenger flow of a certain line; A 乘降区 refers to the effective standing area of the platform boarding and alighting area (one side), Q 上，下 refers to the number of passengers getting on and off a train during the peak hours (including two periods: the morning peak from 7:30 to 9:30 and the evening peak from 17:30 to 19:30). In this article, the average value of the passenger density in the boarding and alighting area during the peak hours is used as the measurement index.

[0117] The operation quality indicators are mainly used to evaluate the improved efficiency of the cross-line operation mode compared with the single-line independent operation and the operation quality of the two train operation modes. The sub-indicators include: the travel time saving rate, the running interval of cross-line trains, which are expressed by formulas (3) and (4):

[0118]

[0119]

[0120] In the formula, T 独立 refers to the travel time between key hubs under the single-line independent operation mode, T 跨线 refers to the travel time between key hubs under the cross-line operation mode, T 线路平均 refers to the average travel time of passengers on the line; I refers to the set of lines, F i refers to the number of trains on the i-th line, F 跨线交路 refers to the number of cross-line trains.

[0121] The transport satisfaction indicator is a quantitative indicator, mainly used to evaluate the quantity and quality of the demands met by the cross-line operation, and observe the implementation of the cross-line operation from the perspective of passenger flow. The sub-indicators include: the coverage ratio of cross-line routes, the comprehensive full-load degree of the line, which are expressed by formulas (5) and (6):

[0122]

[0123]

[0124] In the formula, I refers to the set of lines, N i refers to the number of stations on the i-th line, N 跨线交路 refers to the number of stations served by the cross-line route; L i refers to the one-way maximum full-load rate of the i-th line during the peak period, ρ i refers to the weight of the i-th line.

[0125] The management efficiency indicator is a qualitative indicator, mainly used to qualitatively evaluate the operation work of the cross-line operation system, such as the level of collaborative linkage ability in operation management, the ability of information and resource sharing, etc. The sub-indicators include: the collaborative linkage ability, the resource sharing ability.

[0126] To sum up, the established comprehensive evaluation index system is shown in Table 1 below:

[0127] Table 1 Evaluation Index System of Cross-line Operation Transport Plan

[0128]

[0129] S42: Perform the following operations for each indicator in the comprehensive evaluation index system: Determine the subjective weight of the indicator using the analytic hierarchy process, determine the objective weight of the indicator using the entropy weight method, and use the linear weighted method to combine and optimize the subjective weight and the objective weight to obtain the comprehensive weight of the indicator. The specific implementation steps are as follows:

[0130] Step 1: Combined weighting based on the AHP-entropy weight method

[0131] Reasonably determining the indicator weight is the premise to ensure the effectiveness of the evaluation of the cross-line operation effect of urban rail transit. To avoid the deficiencies brought by a single weighting method, in this embodiment, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the entropy weight method are used to determine the subjective and objective weights respectively, and then the linear weighted method is used to combine and optimize the AHP method and the entropy weight method to obtain the comprehensive weight. Let the value of the weight reflect both the objective regularity and the experience of experts. The linear weighted method is used to synthesize the weights obtained by the entropy weight method and the AHP method to obtain the comprehensive weight w. The expression of the comprehensive weight w is as shown in Equation (7):

[0132] w = αw i +βw j (7).

[0133] In the formula: α and β are the proportions of the AHP method and the entropy weight method in the comprehensive weight respectively, w i and w j are the weights determined by the AHP method and the entropy weight method respectively. Among them, the expressions of α and β are as shown in Equation (8):

[0134]

[0135] In the formula: m is the number of evaluation indicators, P i is the corresponding component after the subjective weight vector is arranged in ascending order.

[0136] S43: Establish the normal cloud model of the comprehensive evaluation index system and obtain the cloud model digital characteristics of each indicator in the normal cloud model.

[0137] The extension cloud model uses the normal cloud model (E x , E n , H e ) to replace the thing characteristic value V in the extension theory to depict the randomness and fuzziness in the evaluation process. The extension cloud model can be expressed as:

[0138] In the formula: M is the object of cross-line operation to be evaluated; C is the cross-line operation effect evaluation indicator; (E xn , E nn , H en ) is the cloud model corresponding to the evaluation indicator C n .

[0139] Let G max and G min be the upper limit value and the lower limit value of the evaluation level corresponding to the cross-line operation effect evaluation index i respectively. Then the expectation E x of the normal cloud model can be expressed as: E x =(G max +G min ) / 2 (10).

[0140] Since G, as the critical value between adjacent levels, belongs to two adjacent levels at the same time, it can be considered that the membership degrees of this critical value corresponding to the upper and lower two levels are also equal, that is In formula (11), λ is a constant determined according to the degree of fuzziness. In this embodiment, λ = 0.1 is taken.

[0141] S44: Obtain the cloud membership degrees between the normal cloud model and each index to obtain a comprehensive judgment matrix.

[0142] Regarding each index value x as a cloud droplet, and generating a normal distribution random number E n '~N(E n ,H e 2 ), where N is the number of cloud droplets, and E n and H e are the corresponding expectation and standard deviation respectively. Then calculate the cloud membership degree μ of each evaluation index value x. The formula is as follows:

[0143]

[0144] In formula (12): E n ' is a random number that satisfies the normal distribution. From formula (12), the cloud membership degrees of each index value can be calculated, and then the comprehensive judgment matrix U is obtained as:

[0145]

[0146] In formula (13), μ ij is the cloud membership degree between the evaluation index C i and the j-th level cloud model; n is the number of evaluation indexes.

[0147] S45: Obtain the comprehensive evaluation level of the cross-line operation transportation plan according to the comprehensive weight of each index and the comprehensive judgment matrix to obtain the evaluation result.

[0148] According to the comprehensive weights of each index, the comprehensive determination degree B can be calculated as:

[0149]

[0150] Then the fuzzy grade characteristic value r of the evaluation can be obtained:

[0151] r = b i f i (15),

[0152] In formula (15), b i is the maximum component in vector B; f i is the level corresponding to the maximum component.

[0153] The expected value E xr and entropy E nr of the comprehensive evaluation score are calculated as follows:

[0154]

[0155] In formula (16): r i corresponds to the eigenvalue obtained from the i-th calculation, h is the number of operations, and in this article, h is taken as 100. The credibility factor θ representing the degree of dispersion of the evaluation result is defined as follows:

[0156] θ = E nr / E xr (17).

[0157] S5: Calculate the difference based on the evaluation and verification result and the theoretical evaluation result to obtain the decision result. It includes:

[0158] S51: Obtain the index difference value between each index in the theoretical evaluation result and the corresponding index in the evaluation and verification result.

[0159] Use ΔU ij , i ∈ {1...4}, j ∈ {1, 2} to represent the differences of each index between the theoretical evaluation result and the simulation verification result. According to the value u ij of the index U ij in the theoretical evaluation result and the value ij of the index U in the simulation verification, ΔU ij can be calculated and the data is stored. The calculation method of ΔU ij is shown in formula (18):

[0160]

[0161] S52: Obtain the comprehensive difference value between the theoretical evaluation result and the evaluation and verification result based on the comprehensive weight of the index and the index difference value.

[0162] According to the weight w ij of each index in the evaluation model obtained by the "AHP-entropy weight method", the comprehensive difference O between the theoretical evaluation result and the simulation verification result of the transportation plan can be calculated and stored, as shown in formula (19).

[0163]

[0164] S53: Set a threshold value;

[0165] S54: If the absolute value of the comprehensive difference value ≤ the threshold value, the decision result is: there is no difference between the theoretical evaluation result and the evaluation verification result, and the operation and transportation plan can be directly output; otherwise, the decision result is: it is necessary to further evaluate and adjust the operation and transportation plan.

[0166] The idea of evaluating and adjusting the transportation plan is as follows:

[0167] First, based on the gaps in various indicators, initially determine the general direction of adjusting the transportation plan. That is, retrieve the stored indicator data ΔU ij , when ΔU ij is 0, it indicates that there is no difference in the indicator values obtained from the theoretical evaluation result and the simulation verification result, and there is no need for further evaluation and adjustment of the transportation plan; when ΔU ij ≠0, it is necessary to discuss by classification: if this indicator is a positive indicator, then when ΔU ij ≥0, it indicates that the indicator reaches or exceeds the expectation, otherwise it indicates that the value of this indicator does not reach the expectation, and the decision-making unit needs to output transportation adjustment suggestions related to the indicator U ij ; similarly, if this indicator is a negative indicator, when ΔU ij ≤0, it indicates that the indicator reaches or exceeds the expectation, otherwise it indicates that the value of this indicator does not reach the expectation, and the decision-making unit needs to output transportation adjustment suggestions related to the indicator U ij .

[0168] Then, formulate specific adjustment measures according to the direction of adjusting the transportation plan. For example, improve the existing transportation plan from aspects such as enhancing the transportation capacity of cross-line trains and increasing the coverage ratio of cross-line routes, so as to gradually reach the expected level of the established transportation plan.

[0169] Adjusting the operation and transportation plan can be summarized into the following steps:

[0170] Judge the magnitude and nature of the indicator difference value between each indicator in the theoretical evaluation result and the corresponding indicator in the evaluation verification result; if the indicator difference value = 0, then output the final operation and transportation plan;

[0171] If the indicator difference value ≥ 0 and it is a positive indicator, or the indicator difference value ≤ 0 and it is a negative indicator, then give operation and transportation adjustment suggestions;

[0172] Formulate operation and transportation adjustment measures according to the operation and transportation adjustment suggestions to obtain the adjusted operation and transportation plan.

[0173] S6: Determine whether the decision result meets the preset conditions. If it meets the preset conditions, output the final cross-line operation transportation plan; otherwise, adjust the operation transportation plan, use the adjusted operation transportation plan as system parameters, and return to S1.

[0174] Embodiment 3

[0175] This embodiment gives a specific implementation case for Embodiment 1 and Embodiment 2.

[0176] This embodiment selects a cross-line operation case of a certain city's subway as the research object, and uses the above decision-making method to evaluate the cross-line transportation plan. The steps are as follows:

[0177] Step1: Theoretical evaluation. Calculate the index data, call the evaluation unit for theoretical evaluation, and obtain the theoretical evaluation result;

[0178] Step2: Simulation verification. Obtain data such as train timetables, passenger flows, and line stations, construct a road network, generate an OD path set, establish a simulation model, and conduct simulations. Statistically analyze the simulation results, and call the decision-making unit to evaluate the simulation results;

[0179] Step3: Evaluation and decision-making. Calculate the difference between the theoretical evaluation result and the simulation result, and output the decision-making suggestion.

[0180] (1) Theoretical evaluation:

[0181] 1. Basic data

[0182] (1) The theoretical evaluation index values are shown in Table 2:

[0183] Table 2 Mean value table of basic index values

[0184]

[0185] (2) Evaluation grade division

[0186] To unify the scoring value range and the number of groups of the indicators, this paper adopts a scoring standard with a total score of 5 points and a group interval of 1 point. The evaluation grades are excellent, good, medium, poor, and bad. The higher the score, the higher the grade. The factor comment sets are shown in Tables 3, 4, and 5. For qualitative indicators, after obtaining the specific values, according to Table 3, the qualitative indicators can be graded and quantified; for qualitative indicators, expert opinions can be solicited and quantified according to the grading standards in Tables 4 and 5.

[0187] Table 3 Evaluation criteria for cross-line passenger flow interaction ratio

[0188]

[0189]

[0190] Table 4 Operating Management Synergy Level Scoring Criteria

[0191]

[0192] Table 5 Resource Sharing Level Scoring Criteria

[0193]

[0194] (3) Determination of Weights

[0195] Calculate the subjective weights and objective weights of each evaluation index, and then calculate the weighted coefficients of the subjective and objective weights through Equation (8) to obtain α = 0.53 and β = 0.47. Finally, the comprehensive weights can be obtained according to Equation (7), and the specific weight information of each evaluation index is shown in Table 6

[0196] Table 6 Index Weight Information Table

[0197]

[0198] (4) Establishment of Evaluation Model

[0199] According to the divided levels, calculate the digital characteristic values of the normal cloud model of each index, and then obtain the corresponding cloud model, and calculate the cloud membership degrees of different levels corresponding to each index. Based on the membership degree matrix and comprehensive weights of each cross-line operation line index, the comprehensive determination degrees of each cross-line operation line are obtained. According to the principle of the largest determination degree, select the level with the largest determination degree as the evaluation level of the cross-line operation effect of the line, and calculate the corresponding credibility factor. Due to limited space, only the cloud models of each evaluation index and the final evaluation results are given here, as shown in Table 7 and Table 8 respectively

[0200] Table 7 Cloud Models of Each Evaluation Index

[0201]

[0202]

[0203] (5) Obtain Theoretical Evaluation Results

[0204] Table 8 Comprehensive Evaluation Results of Cross-line Operation

[0205]

[0206] (2) Simulation Verification

[0207] During the simulation phase, the obtained OD passenger flow is the OD passenger volume at a 15-minute granularity. Within these 15 minutes, the arrival of the passenger flow follows a certain probability distribution. In this case, according to relevant research, the Poisson distribution is used to generate the passenger flow; for train delays, the normal distribution (i.e., empirical probability) is generally used to generate them randomly. According to the statistical simulation results, the basic data can be calculated as shown in Table 9:

[0208] Table 9 Numerical Mean Table of Basic Indexes for Simulation Verification

[0209]

[0210] Call the evaluation unit for evaluation. The evaluation process is the same as the theoretical evaluation, and the evaluation results are obtained as shown in Table 10:

[0211] Table 10 Comprehensive Evaluation Results of Cross-line Operation under Simulation Verification

[0212]

[0213] (3) Evaluation Decision

[0214] Set the threshold O0 = 0.02, and ΔU can be obtained according to Equation (18) ij As shown in Table 11:

[0215] Table 11 Index Differences between Theoretical Evaluation Results and Simulation Verification Results

[0216]

[0217]

[0218] According to Tables 6, 11 and Equation (19), the comprehensive difference O between the theoretical evaluation result and the simulation verification result of the transportation plan is O = -0.036, and |O| > O0, indicating that there is a difference between the evaluation result obtained after the simulation verification of the transportation plan and the expected evaluation result, and the decision-making unit needs to further evaluate the transportation plan.

[0219] Combined with the value of ΔU ij value, the nature of the index, and the logic of the decision-making unit, it can be preliminarily determined that the transportation plan still has a certain gap from the expectation in terms of passenger density, travel time saving rate, and comprehensive line load factor. Further analysis can put forward the following suggestions for improving the transportation plan:

[0220] Suggestion 1: Among various indicators, the gaps in the two indicators of passenger flow density at the connection stations between Line 3 and Line 3 North Extension and the overall line full load rate are too high. This is mainly due to the large current transport capacity gap, limited service scope and operation frequency of cross-line trains. A large number of cross-line transfer passengers still need to transfer at Tianhe Sports Center Station. Therefore, a coordinated optimization plan can be formed by adopting a flexible train operation pattern and combining it with multi-station joint passenger flow control to improve the crowded situation of passenger flow at the connection stations during peak hours and the riding experience of passengers. At the same time, the operation frequency of cross-line trains can be increased targeted or the mode of large formation of cross-line trains can be adopted to improve the transport capacity of cross-line trains and reduce the full load rate of the line.

[0221] Suggestion 2: There are certain gaps between the two indicators of travel time savings rate and coordinated linkage ability between Line 3 and Line 3 North Extension and the expectations. It is recommended to optimize the train service interval at intermediate stations to save the waiting time of passengers. At the same time, increase the operation frequency of cross-line trains to further improve the travel time efficiency of cross-line passengers.

[0222] Based on the above case analysis, the decision-making method and system for the cross-line operation transport plan proposed in this paper can determine the expected operation effect of the cross-line operation transport plan through theoretical evaluation and simulation verification. At the same time, based on the expected operation effect, the decision result of the transport plan and the deficiencies of the transport plan can be output, providing decision-making suggestions and the direction of transport plan adjustment for the operation unit.

[0223] Based on the above case analysis, the decision-making method and system for the cross-line operation transport plan proposed in this embodiment can determine the expected operation effect of the cross-line operation transport plan through theoretical evaluation and simulation verification. At the same time, based on the expected operation effect, the decision result of the transport plan and the deficiencies of the transport plan can be output, providing decision-making suggestions and the direction of transport plan adjustment for the operation unit.

[0224] The specific implementation manners described above further elaborate on the purpose, technical solutions and beneficial effects of the present invention. It should be understood that the above description is only the specific implementation manners of the present invention and is not used to limit the protection scope of the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent replacements, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention shall be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A cross-line operation transportation plan evaluation system for rail transit, characterized in that, It includes: A data management module, configured to obtain system parameters and send the system parameters to a simulation module and an evaluation module; The system parameters include: operation basic data, passenger flow data, and operation transportation plan; A simulation module, configured to perform cross-line operation simulation according to the system parameters, send the simulation verification result to the evaluation module for evaluation and verification, receive the evaluation and verification result feedback by the evaluation module, and send the evaluation and verification result to a decision-making module; An evaluation module, configured to perform theoretical evaluation on the operation transportation plan and send the theoretical evaluation result to the decision-making module; A decision-making module, configured to perform difference calculation according to the evaluation and verification result and the theoretical evaluation result to obtain a decision result, and send the decision result to a human-computer interaction module; A human-computer interaction module, configured to determine whether the decision result meets a preset condition. If the preset condition is met, output the final cross-line operation transportation plan; otherwise, adjust the operation transportation plan and send the adjusted operation transportation plan as system parameters to the data management module; The simulation module includes: a time management unit, configured to generate a time stamp and send the time stamp to a passenger flow control unit, a train control unit, and a simulation data management unit; A passenger flow control unit, configured to generate station passenger flow status information according to the time stamp and the passenger flow data, and send the station passenger flow status information to the simulation data management unit; A train control unit, configured to generate train operation status information and the execution effect of the train transportation plan according to the time stamp and the operation transportation plan, and send the train operation status information and the execution effect of the train transportation plan to the simulation data management unit; A simulation data management unit, configured to, before simulation, construct a rail transit topology network according to the system data and generate alternative road network paths; during simulation, perform train cross-line operation transportation simulation according to the rail transit topology network, the alternative road network paths, the time stamp, the passenger flow status information, the train operation status information, and the execution effect of the train transportation plan to obtain a simulation result, and send the simulation result to the evaluation model; The evaluation module includes: an evaluation index construction unit, configured to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system including supply-demand adaptability index, operation quality index, transportation satisfaction index, and management efficiency index; A comprehensive weight calculation unit, configured to perform the following operations on each index in the comprehensive evaluation index system: determine the subjective weight of the index by using the analytic hierarchy process, determine the objective weight of the index by using the entropy weight method, and perform combined optimization on the subjective weight and the objective weight by using the linear weighting method to obtain the comprehensive weight of the index; A normal cloud digital feature calculation unit, configured to establish a normal cloud model of the comprehensive evaluation index system and calculate the cloud model digital features of each index in the normal cloud model; A cloud model membership degree calculation unit, configured to calculate the cloud membership degree between the normal cloud model and each index to obtain a comprehensive judgment matrix; The comprehensive evaluation level judgment unit is used to calculate the comprehensive evaluation level of the cross-line operation transportation plan according to the comprehensive weight of each index and the comprehensive judgment matrix, and obtain the evaluation result; The decision-making module includes: a difference calculation unit, which is used to calculate the index difference value between each index in the theoretical evaluation result and the corresponding index in the evaluation verification result; The comprehensive difference calculation unit is used to calculate the comprehensive difference value between the theoretical evaluation result and the evaluation verification result according to the comprehensive weight of the index and the index difference value; The decision output unit is used to judge the magnitude of the comprehensive difference value and output the decision result according to the judgment result; The human-computer interaction module includes: an adjustment suggestion output unit, which is used to output the operation transportation adjustment suggestion according to the decision result; The adjustment measure output unit is used to formulate an operation transportation adjustment plan according to the operation transportation adjustment suggestion, and send the adjusted operation transportation plan to the data management module as a system parameter.

2. A method for evaluating the operation plan of cross-line rail transit, characterized in that, It includes the following steps: S1: Obtain system parameters, where the system parameters include: operation basic data, passenger flow data, and operation transportation plan; S2: Conduct cross-line operation simulation according to the system parameters to obtain the simulation result; S3: Evaluate and verify the simulation result to obtain the evaluation verification result; S4: Conduct a theoretical evaluation of the operation transportation plan in the system parameters to obtain the theoretical evaluation result; S5: Calculate the difference according to the evaluation verification result and the theoretical evaluation result to obtain the decision result; S6: Judge whether the decision result meets the preset conditions. If the preset conditions are met, output the final cross-line operation transportation plan; Otherwise, adjust the operation transportation plan, use the adjusted operation transportation plan as the system parameter and return to S1; The cross-line operation simulation includes: building a simulation environment and conducting cross-line operation transportation simulation in the simulation environment; Building the simulation environment includes: constructing a rail transit topological network according to the system parameters; Using the K-shortest path method to generate the alternative paths of the rail transit topological network; The cross-line operation transportation simulation includes: conducting passenger flow simulation according to the passenger flow data to obtain the station passenger flow state information; Conducting train operation simulation according to the operation transportation plan to obtain the train operation state information and the execution effect of the train transportation plan; Updating the train passenger capacity, passenger spatial position, and the relationship between the train and the passengers according to the station passenger flow state information, the train operation state information, and the execution effect of the train transportation plan to obtain the simulation result; S4 includes: constructing a comprehensive evaluation index system for the cross-line operation transportation plan, where the comprehensive evaluation index system includes: supply-demand adaptability index, operation quality index, transportation satisfaction index, and management efficiency index; For each index in the comprehensive evaluation index system, perform the following operations: use the analytic hierarchy process to determine the subjective weight of the index, use the entropy weight method to determine the objective weight of the index, and use the linear weighting method to combine and optimize the subjective weight and the objective weight to obtain the comprehensive weight of the index; Establish the normal cloud model of the comprehensive evaluation index system, and obtain the digital characteristics of the cloud model for each index in the normal cloud model; Obtain the cloud membership degree between the normal cloud model and each index to obtain a comprehensive judgment matrix; Obtain the comprehensive evaluation grade of the cross-line operation transportation plan according to the comprehensive weight of each index and the comprehensive judgment matrix to obtain the evaluation result; The S5 includes: obtaining the index difference value between each index in the theoretical evaluation result and the corresponding index in the evaluation verification result; Obtain the comprehensive difference value between the theoretical evaluation result and the evaluation verification result according to the comprehensive weight of the index and the index difference value; Set a threshold; If the absolute value of the comprehensive difference value ≤ the threshold, the decision result is: there is no difference between the theoretical evaluation result and the evaluation verification result, and the operation transportation plan can be directly output; otherwise, the decision result is: it is necessary to further evaluate and adjust the operation transportation plan; The adjustment of the operation transportation plan includes: judging the magnitude and attribute of the index difference value between each index in the theoretical evaluation result and the corresponding index in the evaluation verification result; if the index difference value = 0, output the final operation transportation plan; If the index difference value ≥ 0 and it is a positive index, or the index difference value ≤ 0 and it is a negative index, give suggestions for operation transportation adjustment; Formulate operation transportation adjustment measures according to the operation transportation adjustment suggestions to obtain the adjusted operation transportation plan.

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