A comprehensive flexible resource reliability optimization method considering dynamic multi-energy demand response

Abstract

The application discloses a kind of comprehensive flexible resource reliability optimization methods considering dynamic multi-energy demand response.Comprehensive flexible resource is divided into four kinds of multi-state comprehensive flexible resource, construct the multi-state model of comprehensive flexible resource considering time sequence characteristics, obtain the multi-energy load demand of each comprehensive flexible resource;Respectively, the multi-state model of comprehensive flexible resource reduction, transfer, alternative response considering time sequence characteristics is established, obtain the multi-energy load demand of comprehensive flexible resource after reduction, transfer, alternative response end in each state;Fusion three kinds of multi-state model, establish the multi-state model of total demand response, obtain the amount of demand side operation reserve provided in multiple states, and then calculate the reliability of the amount of demand side operation reserve provided by comprehensive flexible resource.The application adopts multi-state model to more accurately characterize the dynamic characteristics of comprehensive flexible resource, and accurately obtains the operation risk parameters of the amount of demand side operation reserve provided by comprehensive flexible resource.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to a reliability optimization method in the field of integrated energy systems, specifically a comprehensive and flexible resource reliability optimization method that considers dynamic multi-energy demand response. Background Technology

[0002] The dwindling supply of traditional fossil fuels and their high environmental pollution have spurred the rapid development of integrated energy systems. However, with the large-scale integration of intermittent renewable energy sources, integrated energy systems require substantial operational reserves to maintain safe and reliable operation. Traditionally, these reserves are provided by energy production equipment, i.e., the power generation side. However, providing operational reserves from the power generation side may lead to increased operating and maintenance costs. [ Demand-side response, as an important means for demand-side loads to participate in flexible electricity interaction, can maintain the stable operation of the system to a certain extent, promote the consumption of new energy sources, reduce the peak-valley load difference, and lower system operating costs. With the development of integrated energy systems and the deepening of the coupling between different energy sources, demand response is no longer limited to the reduction or transfer of electrical load, but also includes the complementary substitution of demand among multiple energy types. The concept of integrated demand response considering multiple energy sources has been proposed.

[0003] Integrated demand response refers to the diverse, large-scale, and widely distributed flexible resources on the demand side. These resources can be flexibly controlled and adjusted to provide demand-side operational reserves to the integrated energy system, achieving the goal of two-way coordinated interaction between the main grid and distribution network. Integrated flexible resources refer to multi-energy load devices whose demand can be transferred between different time periods or vary within a certain range through certain control and adjustment methods. These include electric vehicles, air conditioners, heat pumps, and energy storage. Changes in the demand of multi-energy loads from integrated flexible resources can be equivalent to providing demand-side operational reserves to the grid.

[0004] Reliability analysis first developed in the aerospace and electronics industries after World War II. The task of integrated energy systems is to provide users with a continuous supply of qualified energy, specifically including gas, heat, and electricity. Utilizing integrated flexible resources to provide demand-side operational reserves, maintaining a balance between supply and demand, and ensuring reliable system operation has attracted widespread attention from scholars both domestically and internationally. Countries like Denmark and Spain, which have achieved large-scale wind power development and utilization, have improved the grid's ability to absorb renewable energy and ensure its safe and reliable operation by mobilizing integrated flexible resources within their integrated energy systems to participate in grid dispatching operations that include renewable energy sources. Therefore, quantitatively assessing the ability of integrated flexible resources to provide demand-side operational reserves and evaluating their impact on grid reliability is crucial.

[0005] Current reliability analysis methods mainly focus on power system reliability analysis. However, with the introduction of multiple coupled energy sources, load equipment reliability analysis that can only evaluate electrical energy is no longer applicable to comprehensive flexible resource reliability analysis involving multiple energy couplings. The load demand of multiple energy sources such as gas, heat, cooling, and electricity needs to be reflected in the reliability analysis at the same time.

[0006] In traditional reliability models considering integrated flexible resources, the upper limit of the integrated demand response of these resources is often represented by the same scalar or only by 0-1 parameters at any given time. However, the integrated demand response process of multi-energy load equipment is affected by its timing and operational characteristics, resulting in different upper limits. A single, fixed upper limit of the integrated demand response cannot accurately represent the timing-schedulable potential of multi-energy load equipment, nor can it accurately model and represent the reliability of multi-energy load equipment. Therefore, this invention proposes a new reliability analysis method that can be used to calculate the reliability of integrated flexible resources considering dynamic multi-energy demand response, incorporating multiple intermediate states generated by the dynamic timing characteristics of multi-energy load equipment into the reliability model.

[0007] The shortcomings of existing technologies are summarized as follows:

[0008] Disadvantage of existing technology 1: Traditional reliability calculation methods mainly focus on power system reliability analysis. However, with the introduction of multiple coupled energy sources, power system reliability analysis that can only evaluate electrical energy is no longer applicable to the reliability analysis of comprehensive flexible resources containing multiple energy conversions.

[0009] Disadvantage 2 of the existing technology: The existing technology treats the integrated demand response process of integrated flexible resources as two states, namely complete failure or perfect operation. The upper limit of demand response is often represented by the same scalar or only by 0-1 parameters at any time. It does not consider the dynamic time sequence characteristics of the integrated demand response process. As a result, due to insufficient modeling of integrated flexible resources, the obtained reliability model cannot accurately reflect the dynamic demand response time sequence characteristics of integrated flexible resources. Summary of the Invention

[0010] To address the shortcomings of existing technologies, this invention proposes a comprehensive and flexible resource reliability optimization method that considers dynamic multi-energy demand response.

[0011] like Figure 1 As shown, the technical solution of the present invention is as follows:

[0012] Step 1: Divide the integrated flexible resources into four categories of multi-state integrated flexible resources, construct a multi-state model of integrated flexible resources that considers time-series characteristics, and obtain the multi-energy load demand of each integrated flexible resource in different states through processing by the multi-state model of integrated flexible resources.

[0013] Step 2: Establish a multi-state model of integrated flexible resource reduction response that takes into account time-series characteristics, and obtain the load amount that integrated flexible resources can participate in the reduction response in each state and the multi-energy load demand of integrated flexible resources after the reduction response ends.

[0014] Step 3: Establish a multi-state model of integrated flexible resource transfer response that takes into account time-series characteristics, and obtain the load amount that integrated flexible resources can participate in the transfer response under each state and the multi-energy load demand of integrated flexible resources after the transfer response ends.

[0015] Step 4: Establish a multi-state model of integrated flexible resource substitution response that considers time-series characteristics, and obtain the load amount that integrated flexible resources can participate in the substitution response under each state, as well as the multi-energy load demand of integrated flexible resources after the substitution response ends.

[0016] Step 5: Integrate the three response models of comprehensive flexible resources into a multi-state model, establish a multi-state model of the total demand response of comprehensive flexible resources, and obtain the demand-side operational reserve provided by comprehensive flexible resources in multiple states;

[0017] Step 6: Calculate the reliability of the demand-side operational reserve provided by the integrated flexible resources in multiple states.

[0018] The aforementioned integrated flexible resources exhibit multiple multi-energy load demands, which are in multiple states, with one type of multi-energy load demand representing one state.

[0019] This invention takes into account energy forms such as electricity, natural gas, and heat. The multi-energy loads that integrate flexible resources are expanded from one-dimensional loads to multi-dimensional multi-energy loads, so that multiple energy sources can be universally represented through a single load form.

[0020] An integrated energy system comprises multiple flexible resources on the demand side. Within an integrated energy system, flexible resources such as energy storage, air conditioning, and heat pumps actively participate in the two-way interaction with the power grid. These flexible resources are aggregated to provide demand-side operational reserves to the integrated energy system in the form of demand-side responses.

[0021] This invention takes into account the different operating characteristics of various types of loads and provides demand-side operational reserves for the power system through three main demand response strategies based on integrated flexible resources: integrated flexible resource reduction response, integrated flexible resource transfer response, and integrated flexible resource substitution response. Specifically, integrated flexible resource reduction response refers to changing the size of integrated flexible resources to provide system reserves; integrated flexible resource transfer response refers to changing the energy consumption time of integrated flexible resources to provide system reserves; and integrated flexible resource substitution response refers to changing the energy carrier of integrated flexible resources to provide equivalent system reserves, for example, heat load can be provided by combined heat and power units, gas boilers, or heat pumps.

[0022] In the first step, the integrated flexible resources are divided into four categories based on the multi-energy load demand of the integrated flexible resources: fixed integrated flexible resources, transferable integrated flexible resources, reducible integrated flexible resources, and replaceable integrated flexible resources.

[0023] The term "fixed integrated flexible resources" refers to integrated flexible resources that cannot be changed, such as industrial loads. "Transferable integrated flexible resources" refers to integrated flexible resources whose usage time can be changed, such as the gas load required by gas-fired kitchen appliances. "Reducible integrated flexible resources" refers to integrated flexible resources whose energy consumption can be changed, such as the electrical load required by air conditioners. "Substitutable integrated flexible resources" refers to integrated flexible resources whose energy source can be changed; for example, a water heater requires an electrical load, but if the integrated energy system is equipped with a natural gas unit, the electrical load required by the water heater can be equivalently replaced by a gas load.

[0024] The relationship between the loads of different multi-state integrated flexible resources is as follows:

[0025] F = FS + FC + FT + FR

[0026] In the formula, F represents the multi-energy load demand of integrated flexible resources, FS represents the load of fixed integrated flexible resources, FC represents the load of integrated flexible resources that can be reduced, FT represents the load of integrated flexible resources that can be transferred, and FR represents the load of integrated flexible resources that can be substituted.

[0027] In this invention, the load, demand, and reserve are all power quantities.

[0028] Fixed integrated flexible resources, transferable integrated flexible resources, reducible integrated flexible resources, and substitutable integrated flexible resources have different load demands due to their dynamic time-series characteristics. During the required time period, the four types of integrated flexible resources have M states, that is, each of the four types of integrated flexible resources has M multi-energy load demands. Therefore, the demand-side operating reserve that the four types of integrated flexible resources can provide also has M states.

[0029] The integrated flexible resource includes V energy forms. The integrated flexible resource i can be represented by a V-dimensional energy vector. The integrated flexible resource may have different multi-energy load demands. The following multi-state model of the integrated flexible resource considering time-series characteristics is established as follows:

[0030]

[0031]

[0032]

[0033]

[0034] Among them, F i This represents the set of multi-energy load demands for integrated flexible resource i, where i represents the type number of the integrated flexible resource. Let i represent the multi-energy load demand of integrated flexible resource i in state j, j∈(1,2,...,M), where M represents the total number of states of integrated flexible resource; This represents the multi-energy load demand of the comprehensive flexible resource i when considering energy form v in state j, where v∈(1,2,...,V), and V represents the total sequence number of the energy form;

[0035] This represents the load of fixed integrated flexible resources i at state j. This represents the load of the fixed comprehensive flexible resource i when considering energy form v in state j, where v∈(1,2,...,V), and V represents the total sequence number of the energy form; This represents the amount of load that can be reduced from the overall flexible resource i at state j. This represents the load of the comprehensive flexible resource i that can be reduced when considering energy form v in state j. This represents the load of the transferable comprehensive flexible resource i at state j. This represents the load of the transferable comprehensive flexible resource i when considering energy form v in state j. This represents the load of the alternative comprehensive flexible resources i at state j. This represents the load of alternative flexible resources i when considering energy form v in state j; T represents matrix transpose.

[0036] The multi-energy load demand of each integrated flexible resource i in state j is obtained by processing the multi-state model of integrated flexible resources.

[0037] The second step is as follows:

[0038] Based on the comprehensive flexible resource multi-state model, the following comprehensive flexible resource reduction response multi-state model is established:

[0039]

[0040]

[0041] in, This indicates the reduction in the multi-energy load demand of the integrated flexible resource i after the response in state j. This indicates the load on the integrated flexible resource i that is being reduced in response at state j. This indicates the amount of load reduction response that is achieved by integrating flexible resources i when considering state j and energy form v.

[0042] The combined flexible resource i under each known state will be affected by the load reduction response. The input is processed by a multi-state model of integrated flexible resource reduction response to obtain the multi-energy load demand of integrated flexible resources after reduction response in each state.

[0043] The multi-state model of the integrated flexible resource reduction response may also include a probability set of M states in which the integrated flexible resource reduction response is located. And the probability of successfully reducing the response by integrating flexible resources i in state j.

[0044] The third step is as follows:

[0045] Based on the multi-state model of integrated flexible resources, integrated flexible resources can transition out of state j and also transition in from other states. The following multi-state model of integrated flexible resource transition response is established:

[0046]

[0047]

[0048]

[0049]

[0050]

[0051] in, This represents the multi-energy load demand of the comprehensive flexible resource i after the transition response in state j. This represents the amount of load that is completely transferred out by the integrated flexible resource i in state j. This represents the load amount that, at state j, the integrated flexible resource i undergoes a shift in the integrated demand response from state j to state l. Let represent the load amount of the integrated flexible resource i when considering energy form v, which is transferred from state j to state l, where l∈(1,2,...,M); This represents the total load transferred in by the integrated flexible resource i in state j. This indicates the load amount by which the integrated flexible resource i has shifted from state l back to state j in terms of integrated demand response. This represents the load amount that the integrated flexible resource i transfers from state l back to state j when considering energy form v;

[0052] The load on the flexible resource i under the known states in advance is determined by the transfer response. and The multi-state model of integrated flexible resource transfer response is input into the multi-state model to obtain the multi-energy load demand of integrated flexible resources after the transfer response in each state.

[0053] The multi-state model of the comprehensive flexible resource transfer response may also include a probability set of the comprehensive flexible resource transfer response in M ​​states. And the probability of a successful transition response when using flexible resources i in state j.

[0054] The fourth step is as follows:

[0055] Based on the comprehensive flexible resource multi-state model, the following comprehensive flexible resource substitution response multi-state model is established:

[0056]

[0057]

[0058]

[0059] in, This represents the multi-energy load demand of the comprehensive flexible resource i after the alternative response in state j. This represents the load amount of flexible resource i participating in the alternative response. This represents the load amount that integrates flexible resource i to participate in the alternative response when considering energy form v in state j. This represents the load obtained by the integrated flexible resource i after the alternative response. This represents the load obtained by integrating flexible resource i after substitution response in state j, considering energy form v;

[0060] The load on the flexible resource i under the known states in relation to the alternative response is calculated. and the load obtained after the alternative response The input is processed by a multi-state model of integrated flexible resource substitution response to obtain the multi-energy load demand of integrated flexible resources after substitution response in each state.

[0061] The multi-state model of the comprehensive flexible resource substitution response may also include a probability set of the comprehensive flexible resource substitution response in M ​​states. And the probability of a successful alternative response when using flexible resource i in state j.

[0062] The fifth step is as follows:

[0063] Based on the multi-state model of integrated flexible resource reduction response, transfer response and substitution response, a multi-state model of integrated flexible resource demand response is constructed to obtain the demand-side operational reserve that integrated flexible resource demand response can provide in each state.

[0064] Considering the reduction, transfer, and substitution response processes of integrated flexible resources, the demand-side operating reserve provided by integrated flexible resource i exhibits a multi-state trend depending on the state of the integrated flexible resource. The following multi-state model of the total demand response of integrated flexible resources is established:

[0065]

[0066]

[0067]

[0068] Among them, DRR i This represents the set of demand-side operational reserve provided by integrated flexible resources participating in demand response under M states. This represents the demand-side operational reserve provided by integrated flexible resource i after three types of demand responses in state j. This represents the demand-side operating reserve provided by integrated flexible resources i under the consideration of energy form v; This represents the multi-energy load demand of flexible resource i after responding to the three types of demand in state j;

[0069] Based on the multi-energy load demand of comprehensive flexible resources And the demand for multi-energy loads after reduction, transfer, and replacement responses. The multi-state load demand of integrated flexible resource i after three types of demand response is obtained by inputting it into the multi-state model of total demand response of integrated flexible resource i, and then combined with the multi-energy load demand of integrated flexible resource i. Obtain demand-side operational reserve provided by comprehensive and flexible resources i

[0070] In practice, the probability of demand response of the integrated flexible resource i is obtained based on the probability of successful demand response in each state, thus obtaining the probability set of the integrated flexible resource demand response in M ​​states.

[0071]

[0072]

[0073] in, This represents the probability that the integrated flexible resource demand response is in state j. This indicates the probability of reducing the response in state j by comprehensively utilizing flexible resources i. This represents the probability of the integrated flexible resource i transition response operating in state j. This represents the probability of the response using a combination of flexible resources i in state j.

[0074] In specific implementation, if Then it will run successfully, with a probability of This equals the probability of a successful alternative response occurring when all flexible resources i are combined in state j. Otherwise, the process will fail. probability equals

[0075] like If it runs successfully, then the probability is... This equals the probability of a successful transition response when using flexible resources i in state j. Otherwise, the probability of failure is equal to

[0076] like If it runs successfully, then the probability is... This equals the probability of a successful alternative response occurring when all flexible resources i are combined in state j. Otherwise, the probability of failure is equal to

[0077] The sixth step, as described above, is as follows:

[0078] Based on the multi-state model of integrated flexible resource demand response, the demand-side operating reserve provided by integrated flexible resources Less than the operating reserve W required by the power grid supply side · The probability characterizes the reliability of the integrated flexible resource i, and the reliability R(DRR) of the integrated flexible resource i is obtained by processing according to the following formula. i ):

[0079]

[0080]

[0081]

[0082] In the formula, W · This represents the operating reserve required by the power grid supply side. This represents the operating reserve required on the supply side considering energy form v. This represents the probability that the integrated flexible resource demand response is in state j. This indicates the probability of reducing the response in state j by comprehensively utilizing flexible resources i. This represents the probability of the integrated flexible resource i transition response operating in state j. Let δ represent the probability of the flexible resource i replacing the response in state j, and let δ() represent the backup demand comparison function.

[0083] The above formula indicates that if in state j, but otherwise

[0084] In practice, the reliability is further utilized for the optimized scheduling of demand-side reserves and supply-side output and reserves of an integrated energy system based on comprehensive flexible resource reliability constraints.

[0085] In this invention, bolded letters represent vectors. In the reliability calculation formula, The requirement is that each element in the former vector is less than the corresponding element in the latter vector.

[0086] This invention first proposes a multi-state model for comprehensive flexible resource reduction response considering time-series characteristics, then proposes a multi-state model for comprehensive flexible resource transfer response considering time-series characteristics, next proposes a multi-state model for comprehensive flexible resource substitution response considering time-series characteristics, then integrates and coordinates the three demand response multi-state models of comprehensive flexible resources, establishes a multi-state model of comprehensive flexible resources, evaluates and obtains the demand-side operational reserve that comprehensive flexible resources can provide in each state and its probability, and finally calculates the reliability of comprehensive flexible resources in multiple states.

[0087] The present invention employs a multi-state model, which can more accurately characterize the dynamic characteristics of integrated flexible resources and precisely obtain the operational risk parameters of the operational reserve provided by integrated flexible resources on the demand side.

[0088] The beneficial effects of this invention are as follows:

[0089] This invention proposes a multi-state risk assessment model for integrated flexible resources and evaluates the demand-side operating reserve that different types of integrated flexible resources can provide. Utilizing integrated flexible resources to absorb high-penetration renewable energy and provide demand-side operating reserve plays a positive role in reducing the operating reserve provided by traditional units and environmental pollution, improving wind power utilization, reducing wind and solar curtailment, and optimizing the energy allocation structure.

[0090] Considering the dynamic time-series characteristics of the integrated demand response process, a multi-state model is adopted to more accurately characterize the dynamic characteristics of integrated flexible resources, obtain the operational risk parameters of the operational reserve provided by integrated flexible resources on the demand side, identify the risk level of integrated flexible resources during operation, lay the foundation for realizing two-way interaction between integrated flexible resources and the power grid, and provide a scientific basis for the safe operation of the smart grid. Attached Figure Description

[0091] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0092] The present invention will be further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0093] like Figure 1 As shown, the complete embodiment of the present invention and its implementation process are as follows:

[0094] First, we construct a multi-state model that considers the temporal characteristics of resource reduction response, transfer response, and substitution response.

[0095] Assuming that the integrated flexible resources include three energy forms: electricity, natural gas, and heat, and that the unit of each integrated flexible resource is MW. Assuming that integrated flexible resource i has three states within the required time period, then the multi-state model of the integrated flexible resource considering time-series characteristics is as follows:

[0096]

[0097]

[0098]

[0099]

[0100] In the formula, [X] represents the flexible resource quantities of electricity, natural gas, and heat participating in integrated demand response, for example... This indicates that in State 2, the total fixed flexible resources considering electrical energy are 10MW, the total fixed flexible resources considering natural gas energy are 10MW, and the total fixed flexible resources considering thermal energy are 10MW.

[0101] Secondly, establish a comprehensive and flexible multi-state model for responding to resource demand.

[0102] Assuming a reduction in the overall flexible resource load... The three states are [10,10,10], [20,20,20], and [5,5,5], respectively. The state probabilities are... The values ​​are 0.5, 0.6, and 0.7 respectively. This represents the total flexible resource load that has been completely transferred out. The three states are [10,10,10], [20,20,20], and [5,5,5], respectively. The state probabilities are... The values ​​are 0.5, 0.6, and 0.7 respectively. No load was transferred in. The obtained alternative integrated flexible resource load... The three states are [10,0,10], [20,0,20], and [5,0,5], respectively. The state probabilities are... The values ​​are 0.5, 0.6, and 0.7 respectively, representing loads that did not participate in the alternative response.

[0103] Assume that during the required time period, none of the three demand responses in state 1 occur successfully, while all three demand responses in states 2 and 3 occur successfully. Then the multi-state model of the total demand response for integrated flexible resources is as follows:

[0104]

[0105]

[0106] Finally, the multi-state risk assessment parameters for integrated flexible resources are calculated.

[0107] Assume the required operating reserve W on the supply side · =(110,110,110) T Thus, the overall reliability of flexible resources is 0.813.

Claims

1. A comprehensive and flexible resource reliability optimization method considering dynamic multi-energy demand response, characterized in that: Step 1: Divide the integrated flexible resources into four categories of multi-state integrated flexible resources, construct a multi-state model of integrated flexible resources that considers time-series characteristics, and obtain the multi-energy load demand of each integrated flexible resource through processing by the multi-state model of integrated flexible resources. In the first step, the integrated flexible resources are divided into four categories based on the multi-energy load demand of the integrated flexible resources: fixed integrated flexible resources, transferable integrated flexible resources, reducible integrated flexible resources, and replaceable integrated flexible resources. The integrated flexible resource includes V energy forms. The following multi-state model of the integrated flexible resource, considering its time-series characteristics, is established as follows: ； ； in, This represents the set of multi-energy load demands for integrated flexible resource i, where i represents the type number of the integrated flexible resource. This represents the multi-energy load demand of flexible resource i in state j. M represents the total number of states of integrated flexible resources; This represents the load of fixed integrated flexible resources i at state j. This represents the load of fixed integrated flexible resources i when considering energy form v in state j. This represents the amount of load that can be reduced from the overall flexible resource i at state j. This represents the load of the comprehensive flexible resource i that can be reduced when considering energy form v in state j. This represents the load of the transferable comprehensive flexible resource i at state j. This represents the load of the transferable comprehensive flexible resource i when considering energy form v in state j. This represents the load of the alternative comprehensive flexible resources i at state j. This represents the load of alternative flexible resources i when considering energy form v in state j; T represents matrix transpose. The multi-energy load demand of each integrated flexible resource i in state j is obtained by processing the integrated flexible resource multi-state model. Step 2: Establish a multi-state model of comprehensive flexible resource reduction response that takes into account time-series characteristics, and obtain the multi-energy load demand of comprehensive flexible resources after the reduction response ends in each state. Step 3: Establish a multi-state model of comprehensive flexible resource transfer response that takes into account time-series characteristics, and obtain the multi-energy load demand of comprehensive flexible resources after the transfer response ends in each state. Step 4: Establish a multi-state model of comprehensive flexible resource substitution response that considers time-series characteristics, and obtain the multi-energy load demand of comprehensive flexible resources after the substitution response ends in each state. The fourth step is as follows: Establish the following multi-state model for comprehensive and flexible resource substitution response: ； ； ； in, This represents the multi-energy load demand of the comprehensive flexible resource i after the alternative response in state j. This represents the load amount of flexible resource i participating in the alternative response. This represents the load amount that integrates flexible resource i to participate in the alternative response when considering energy form v in state j. This represents the load obtained by the integrated flexible resource i after the alternative response. This represents the load obtained by integrating flexible resource i after substitution response in state j, considering energy form v; The load on the flexible resource i under the known states in relation to the alternative response is calculated. and the load obtained after the alternative response The input is processed by a multi-state model of integrated flexible resource substitution response to obtain the multi-energy load demand of integrated flexible resources after substitution response in each state. ; Step 5: Integrate the three response models of comprehensive flexible resources into a multi-state model, establish a multi-state model of the total demand response of comprehensive flexible resources, and obtain the demand-side operational reserve provided by comprehensive flexible resources in multiple states; The fifth step is as follows: Establish the following multi-state model for comprehensive and flexible total resource demand response: ； ； ； in, This represents the set of demand-side operational reserve provided by integrated flexible resources participating in demand response under M states. This represents the demand-side operational reserve provided by integrated flexible resource i after three types of demand responses in state j. This represents the demand-side operating reserve provided by integrated flexible resources i under the consideration of energy form v; This represents the multi-energy load demand of flexible resource i after responding to the three types of demand in state j; Based on the multi-energy load demand of comprehensive flexible resources And the demand for multi-energy loads after reduction, transfer, and replacement responses. , , The multi-state load demand of integrated flexible resource i after three types of demand response is obtained by inputting it into the multi-state model of total demand response of integrated flexible resource i, and then combined with the multi-energy load demand of integrated flexible resource i. Obtain demand-side operational reserve provided by comprehensive and flexible resources i ; Simultaneously, based on the probability of successful demand response of the integrated flexible resource i in each state, the operational probability of the integrated flexible resource i demand response is obtained, thereby obtaining the probability set of the integrated flexible resource demand response in M ​​states. : ； ； in, This represents the probability that the integrated flexible resource demand response is in state j. This indicates the probability of reducing the response in state j by comprehensively utilizing flexible resources i. This represents the probability of the integrated flexible resource i transition response operating in state j. This represents the probability of the response using a combination of flexible resource i as an alternative in state j. In specific implementation, if Then it will run successfully, with a probability of This equals the probability of a successful alternative response occurring when all flexible resources i are combined in state j. Otherwise, the process will fail. probability equals ; like If it runs successfully, then the probability is... This equals the probability of a successful transition response when using flexible resources i in state j. Otherwise, the probability of failure is equal to ; like If it runs successfully, then the probability is... This equals the probability of a successful alternative response occurring when all flexible resources i are combined in state j. Otherwise, the probability of failure is equal to ; Step 6: Calculate the reliability of the demand-side operational reserve provided by the integrated flexible resources in multiple states.

2. The comprehensive and flexible resource reliability optimization method considering dynamic multi-energy demand response as described in claim 1, characterized in that: The second step is as follows: Establish the following multi-state model for comprehensive and flexible resource reduction response: ； ； in, This indicates the reduction in the multi-energy load demand of the integrated flexible resource i after the response in state j. This indicates the load on the integrated flexible resource i that is being reduced in response at state j. This indicates the amount of load reduction response that is achieved by integrating flexible resources i when considering state j and energy form v. The combined flexible resource i under each known state will be affected by the load reduction response. The input is processed by a multi-state model of integrated flexible resource reduction response to obtain the multi-energy load demand of integrated flexible resources after reduction response in each state. .

3. The comprehensive and flexible resource reliability optimization method considering dynamic multi-energy demand response as described in claim 1, characterized in that: The third step is as follows: Establish the following multi-state model for comprehensive and flexible resource transfer response: ； ； ； ； ； in, This represents the multi-energy load demand of the comprehensive flexible resource i after the transition response in state j. This represents the amount of load that is completely transferred out by the integrated flexible resource i in state j. This represents the load amount that, at state j, the integrated flexible resource i undergoes a shift in the integrated demand response from state j to state l. This represents the load amount that, considering energy form v, integrates flexible resource i to transfer from state j to state l. ; This represents the total load transferred in by the integrated flexible resource i in state j. This indicates the load amount by which the integrated flexible resource i has shifted from state l back to state j in terms of integrated demand response. This represents the load amount that the integrated flexible resource i transfers from state l back to state j when considering energy form v; The load on the flexible resource i under the known states in advance is determined by the transfer response. and The multi-state model of integrated flexible resource transfer response is input into the multi-state model to obtain the multi-energy load demand of integrated flexible resources after the transfer response in each state. .

4. The comprehensive and flexible resource reliability optimization method considering dynamic multi-energy demand response as described in claim 1, characterized in that: The sixth step, as described above, is as follows: Based on the multi-state model of integrated flexible resource demand response, the reliability of integrated flexible resource i is obtained according to the following formula. : ； ； ； In the formula, This represents the operating reserve required by the power grid supply side. This represents the operating reserve required on the supply side considering energy form v. This represents the probability that the integrated flexible resource demand response is in state j. This indicates the probability of reducing the response in state j by comprehensively utilizing flexible resources i. This represents the probability of the integrated flexible resource i transition response operating in state j. This represents the probability of the response using a combination of flexible resource i as an alternative in state j. This represents a function for comparing standby requirements.

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