Regional building group dynamic evolution type load prediction method and system

Abstract

The present application relates to the field of regional building group load prediction, and particularly relates to a kind of regional building group dynamic evolution type load prediction method and system, the present application comprises: the cold and heat load index of corresponding typical building is obtained by each typical building model;The cold and heat load index of regional building group is predicted based on the cold and heat load index of each typical building;And according to the development and energy consumption parameters of each typical building and the maximum value of the cold and heat load index of regional building group, the cold and heat load index of regional building group in different years is predicted.The beneficial effects of the present application are beneficial to improve the accuracy of regional building group load prediction in planning stage, provide basis for subsequent system design and equipment selection, and also provide technical reference standard for regional building group load prediction.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The present application relates to the field of regional building group load prediction, in particular to a regional building group dynamic evolution type load prediction method and system and a computer readable storage medium. BACKGROUND

[0002] With the progress of society and the development of economy, people's living standards are improving, urbanization construction is accelerating, and buildings are developing in clusters and large scale. Regional energy supply systems have become one of the building group energy supply methods in recent years because of their environmental friendliness and energy saving. Regional building group energy planning is to plan the energy demand of the building group, replace traditional fossil fuels with clean and renewable energy, and maximize regional energy utilization. In recent years, with the continuous emergence of large central business districts and urban complexes, regional energy supply projects have increased. Although years of active practice have accumulated a number of influential regional energy supply system projects, the actual effect is not satisfactory. The main reason is that when planning the energy consumption of the regional building group, the traditional energy planning approach is followed, and the characteristics of the dynamic load distribution of the region are not taken into account. The reliability of the system design is overemphasized, which often results in a significant overestimation of the capacity of the regional energy supply system.

[0003] Regional building group dynamic load prediction is the key to regional energy planning, especially in the energy planning stage. The specific building design of the regional building group has not been completed, and there is no detailed building information. At the same time, the functions of each individual building are different, and the energy consumption is also different in the planning. According to the preliminary planning data of the project, only the energy supply and energy supply area of each building are known. Under this background, how to predict the dynamic load of the regional building group is crucial. SUMMARY

[0004] The present application relates to a regional building group dynamic evolution type load prediction method and system and a computer readable storage medium.

[0005] The present application provides a regional building group dynamic evolution type load prediction method, comprising the following steps:

[0006] Step S1, obtaining the cold and heat load indicators of the corresponding typical building through each typical building model;

[0007] Step S2, predicting the cold and heat load indicators of the regional building group based on the cold and heat load indicators of each typical building; and

[0008] Step S3, predicting the cold and heat load indicators of the regional building group in different years according to the development and energy consumption parameters of each typical building and the maximum cold and heat load indicators of the regional building group.

[0009] Further, the step S2, the calculation method of the cold and heat load index of the regional building group based on the cold and heat load index of each typical building is as follows:

[0010]

[0011] In the above formula, t∈{0, 1, 2, 3, …, 8759, 8760}, t is the time, and the unit is h;

[0012] i is the building type, i∈{1, 2, 3, …, n}, n is the number of building types;

[0013] Q t is the cold and heat load index of the regional building group at time t, and the unit is W / m 2 ;

[0014] X i is the weight ratio of each typical building in the regional building group, and the unit is %;

[0015] Q i,t is the cold and heat load index of each typical building at time t, and the unit is W / m 2 .

[0016] Further, the calculation method of the cold and heat load index of the regional building group in different years according to the development and energy use parameters of each typical building and the maximum value of the cold and heat load index of the regional building group includes:

[0017] The development and energy use parameters are set to include:

[0018] A i,T is the annual change rate of the land development progress of each typical building;

[0019] B i,T is the annual change rate of the occupancy rate of each typical building;

[0020] C i,T is the annual change rate of the energy intensity of each typical building;

[0021] D i,T is the annual change rate of the opening rate of each typical building; and

[0022] The cold load index is set to Q cool , the heat load index is set to Q heat , and the unit is W / m 2 , and the corresponding maximum values are respectively

[0023] Q cool =max(Q t ), Q heat =-min(Q t );

[0024] The regional building group cold load index Q in different years T,cool , heat load index Q T,heat , unit: W / m 2 , the calculation formula is respectively

[0025]

[0026]

[0027] In the formula, T∈{1, 2, 3…}, T is the calculation period year, unit: year;

[0028] I is the building type, i∈{1, 2, 3…, n}.

[0029] Further, the annual change rate of the land development progress,

[0030] In the above formula, T A,i is the year of starting construction of the corresponding building, unit: year;

[0031] X i is the total number of years of construction of each format, unit: year;

[0032] Beta is the progress influence factor, its value range is 0.8-1.2;

[0033] The annual change rate of the occupancy rate,

[0034] In the above formula, B i,0 is the initial number of users of each building, unit: house;

[0035] B i is the total number of users of each building, unit: house;

[0036] T B,i is the year of first occupancy, unit: year;

[0037] B is the occupancy growth rate;

[0038] Delta is the occupancy influence factor, its value range is 0.8-1.2.

[0039] The annual change rate of the energy intensity,

[0040] In the above formula, C i,0 is the initial energy consumption of each building, unit: kWh;

[0041] C i is the total energy consumption of each building, unit: kWh;

[0042] T C,i The year in which energy consumption began, expressed in years;

[0043] c represents the energy consumption growth rate;

[0044] α is the energy consumption impact factor, and its value ranges from 0.8 to 1.2;

[0045] The annual change rate of the activation rate,

[0046] In the above formula, D i,0 The initial number of users connected to the energy supply for each building, in units of households;

[0047] D i This represents the total number of residents in each building, expressed in households.

[0048] T D,i The year in which the power was put into operation is in years;

[0049] d. Opening growth rate;

[0050] θ is the factor affecting the turnaround rate, and its value ranges from 0.8 to 1.2.

[0051] Secondly, the present invention also provides a regional building complex dynamic evolution load forecasting system, comprising:

[0052] The typical building model creation module creates corresponding typical building models and obtains the heating and cooling load indices of the corresponding typical buildings.

[0053] The module for calculating the heating and cooling load index of a regional building complex predicts the heating and cooling load index of the entire regional building complex based on the heating and cooling load indexes of typical buildings; and

[0054] The corresponding year's regional building cluster cooling and heating load index calculation module predicts the regional building cluster cooling and heating load index in different years based on the development and energy consumption parameters of each typical building and when the regional building cluster's cooling and heating load index is at its maximum value.

[0055] Furthermore, the prediction of the cooling and heating load index of the regional building complex based on the cooling and heating load index of each typical building is to set the cooling and heating load index Q of the regional building complex at time t. t The unit is W / m 2 ;

[0056]

[0057] In the above formula, t∈{0,1,2,3,…,8759,8760}, where t is the time in hours;

[0058] i is the building type, i∈{1,2,3…,n}, n is the number of building types;

[0059] X i is the weight ratio of each typical building in the regional building group, unit: %;

[0060] Q i,t is the cold and heat load index of each typical building at time t, unit: W / m 2 .

[0061] Further, the cold and heat load index of the regional building group in different years is predicted according to the development and energy use parameters of each typical building and the maximum value of the cold and heat load index of the regional building group; that is,

[0062] The development and energy use parameters include:

[0063] A i,T is the annual change rate of the land development progress of each typical building;

[0064] B i,T is the annual change rate of the occupancy rate of each typical building;

[0065] C i,T is the annual change rate of the energy use intensity of each typical building;

[0066] D i,T is the annual change rate of the opening rate of each typical building; and

[0067] The cold load index is set as Q cool , the heat load index is set as Q heat , unit: W / m 2 , and the corresponding maximum values are Q

[0068] Q cool = max(Q t ), Q heat =-min(Q t );

[0069] The cold load index Q T,cool and the heat load index Q T,heat of the regional building group in different years are constructed, unit: W / m 2 , and the calculation formulas are

[0070]

[0071]

[0072] In the formula, T∈{1,2,3…}, T is the calculation period year, unit: year;

[0073] i is the building type, i ∈ {1, 2, 3…, n}.

[0074] Further, the annual change rate of the land development progress,

[0075] In the above formula, T A,i is the year of the start of construction of the corresponding building, with the unit of year;

[0076] X i is the total number of construction years of each format, with the unit of year;

[0077] β is the progress influence factor, with the value range of 0.8-1.2;

[0078] The annual change rate of the occupancy rate,

[0079] In the above formula, B i,0 is the initial number of users of each building, with the unit of household;

[0080] B i is the total number of users of each building, with the unit of household;

[0081] T B,i is the year of the first occupancy, with the unit of year;

[0082] b is the occupancy growth rate;

[0083] δ is the occupancy influence factor, with the value range of 0.8-1.2.

[0084] The annual change rate of the energy intensity,

[0085] In the above formula, C i,0 is the initial energy consumption of each building, with the unit of kWh;

[0086] C i is the total energy consumption of each building, with the unit of kWh;

[0087] T C,i is the year of the start of energy consumption, with the unit of year;

[0088] c is the energy consumption growth rate;

[0089] α is the energy consumption influence factor, with the value range of 0.8-1.2;

[0090] The annual change rate of the opening rate,

[0091] In the above formula, D i,0 is the initial number of users of each building, with the unit of household;

[0092] Di is the total number of users for each building, unit is house;

[0093] T D,i is the year of opening, unit is year;

[0094] d is the opening growth rate;

[0095] θ is the opening rate influence factor, the value range is 0.8~1.2.

[0096] In a third aspect, the present application also provides a computer readable storage medium, characterized in that the computer readable storage medium stores computer executable instructions, and the computer executable instructions are used to make the computer execute the regional building group dynamic evolution type load prediction method.

[0097] The beneficial effects of the present application are that, in the planning stage of the regional building group, the building information is less, and the energy planning is not clear, the cold and heat load indexes of the corresponding typical building are obtained based on the established typical building model, the load indexes of the regional building group are predicted through the related cold and heat load indexes and the development and energy consumption parameters of each typical building, the traditional regional building group load index prediction method is further optimized, the accuracy of the regional building group load prediction in the planning stage is improved, the basis is provided for subsequent system design and equipment selection, and technical reference standards are also provided for the load prediction of the regional building group.

[0098] Other features and advantages of the present application will be set forth in the following description, and in part will become apparent to those skilled in the art from the description, or can be learned by practice of the present application. The objects and other advantages of the present application will be realized and achieved by the structure particularly pointed out in the specification, claims and drawings.

[0099] In order to make the above-mentioned objects, features and advantages of the present application more obvious and easy to understand, the following preferred embodiments are specifically described, and the accompanying drawings are described in detail as follows. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0100] In order to more clearly illustrate the specific embodiments of the present application or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following will briefly introduce the drawings needed to be used in the specific embodiments or prior art description. Obviously, the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present application, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can also be obtained without creative labor on the basis of these drawings.

[0101] Figure 1 is the flow chart of the regional building group dynamic evolution type load prediction method of the present application;

[0102] Figure 2is a block schematic diagram of a regional building group dynamic evolution type load prediction system of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0103] In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present application clearer, the technical solutions of the present application will be described clearly and completely below with reference to the drawings, obviously, the described embodiments are some embodiments of the present application, rather than all the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative labor fall within the protection scope of the present application.

[0104] The land development progress of the present application refers to the proportion of the building area that has been constructed to the total planned construction area from the beginning of the project construction; the occupancy rate refers to the proportion of the number of actual occupancy users to the total number of buildings; the energy consumption intensity refers to the ratio of the actual daily energy consumption of air conditioners to the maximum daily energy consumption of air conditioners; and the opening rate refers to the proportion of the number of users that have opened the central cooling and heating service to the total number of actual occupancy users.

[0105] Embodiment 1

[0106] As shown in Figure 1 , the present embodiment provides a regional building group dynamic evolution type load prediction method, comprising the following steps:

[0107] Step S1, obtaining the cold and heat load indexes of the corresponding typical building through each typical building model;

[0108] The typical building comprises one of a residence, an office, a business, a hotel, an industry, a school, a hospital, a library and a theater, and the typical building only contains a single-function room and does not contain a comprehensive building with multiple functions.

[0109] The establishment of the typical building model needs to be analyzed through investigation, to consult the building or design standards and specifications of the relevant region to obtain the relevant building parameters and indoor design parameters, and the annual meteorological parameters of the prediction region can also be considered, so that the establishment of the typical building model and the subsequent cold and heat load indexes obtained based on the model are more in line with the actual situation, and the accuracy of the regional building group load index prediction is improved.

[0110] The building parameters can include the basic shape of the building, the number of building layers, the building layer height, the building orientation, the volume coefficient, the window-wall ratio and the thermal parameters of the envelope structure, etc.

[0111] The indoor design parameters can include the fresh air volume, the air permeability, the indoor thermal disturbance and the indoor temperature and humidity, etc.

[0112] Based on the energy saving specification and the building parameters obtained by investigation, the model of each typical building is established by modeling software; and based on the above building model, the cold and heat load index data of each typical building at each time of the whole year is simulated by energy consumption simulation software, so as to form the cold and heat load index database of each typical building model.

[0113] Step S2, predicting the cold and heat load index of the regional building group based on the cold and heat load index of each typical building;

[0114] The calculation method of predicting the cold and heat load index of the regional building group based on the cold and heat load index of each typical building is as follows:

[0115]

[0116] In the above formula, t∈{0,1,2,3,…,8759,8760}, t is the time, and the unit is h;

[0117] i is the building type, i∈{1,2,3,…,n}, n is the number of building types;

[0118] Q t is the cold and heat load index of the regional building group at time t, and the unit is W / m 2 .

[0119] X i is the weight ratio of each typical building in the regional building group;

[0120] Q i,t is the cold and heat load index of each typical building at time t, and the unit is W / m 2 .

[0121] Step S3, predicting the cold and heat load index of the regional building group in different years according to the development and energy consumption parameters of each typical building and the maximum cold and heat load index of the regional building group.

[0122] The calculation method of predicting the cold and heat load index of the regional building group in different years according to the development and energy consumption parameters of each typical building and the maximum cold and heat load index of the regional building group includes:

[0123] First, the development and energy consumption parameters include:

[0124] A i,T is the annual change rate of the land development progress of each typical building;

[0125] B i,T is the annual change rate of the occupancy rate of each typical building;

[0126] C i,T is the annual change rate of the energy consumption intensity of each typical building;

[0127] D i,T is the annual change rate of the opening rate of each typical building; and

[0128] The cold load index of the regional building group in the production year is set as Q cool , and the heat load index is Q heat , with the unit of W / m 2 , and the corresponding maximum values are respectively

[0129] Q cool = max(Q t ), Q heat = -min(Q t );

[0130] The cold load index Q T,cool and the heat load index Q T,heat of the regional building group in different years are constructed, with the unit of W / m 2 , and the calculation formulas are respectively

[0131]

[0132]

[0133] In the formula, T ∈ {1, 2, 3, …}, T is the year of the calculation period, with the unit of year.

[0134] i is the building type, i ∈ {1, 2, 3, …, n}.

[0135] The annual change rate of the land development progress in step S3 is

[0136]

[0137] In the formula, T A,i is the year of the start of construction of different buildings, with the unit of year;

[0138] X i is the total number of construction years of each format, with the unit of year;

[0139] β is the progress influence factor, and the value range is 0.8-1.2.

[0140] The annual change rate of the occupancy rate in step S3 is

[0141]

[0142] In the formula, B i,0 is the initial number of users of each building, with the unit of household;

[0143] B i is the total number of users of each building, with the unit of household;

[0144] T B,i is the first year of occupancy, in years;

[0145] b is the occupancy growth rate;

[0146] δ is an occupancy influence factor, which is in the range of 0.8-1.2.

[0147] The annual change rate of the energy consumption intensity in step S3

[0148]

[0149] In the above formula, C i,0 is the initial energy consumption of each building, in kWh;

[0150] C i is the total energy consumption of each building, in kWh;

[0151] T C,i is the year of starting energy consumption, in years;

[0152] c is the energy consumption growth rate;

[0153] α is an energy consumption influence factor, which is in the range of 0.8-1.2.

[0154] The annual change rate of the opening rate in step S3

[0155]

[0156] In the above formula, D i,0 is the initial number of open energy supply users of each building, in units;

[0157] D i is the total number of occupancy users of each building, in units;

[0158] T D,i is the year of opening energy consumption, in years;

[0159] d is the opening growth rate;

[0160] θ is an opening rate influence factor, which is in the range of 0.8-1.2.

[0161] For example, taking Nanjing as an example, the specific implementation method of the present application is described in detail as follows:

[0162] In this embodiment, the typical buildings of the building group in a certain area of Nanjing are selected as residential buildings, office buildings, commercial buildings and hotel buildings. Based on the energy saving specification and the research data, each typical building model is established by using the Sketchup Pro modeling software. In order to facilitate modeling, each typical building is simplified, and the input parameters of each building are shown in Table 1.

[0163] Table 1 parameters of each typical building model

[0164] Building type Residential building Office building Commercial building Hotel building Orientation South South South South Ground aspect ratio 16:10 3:1 3:1 3:1 Window-wall ratio 0.3 0.59 0.59 0.59 Number of stories 3 3 3 3 Storey height 3m 3.2m 3.2m 3.2m Building area 480m 2 ]]> 900m 2 ]]> 900m 2 ]]> 900m 2 ]]> Volume coefficient 0.436 0.37 0.37 0.37 Shading type Internal shading Internal shading Internal shading Internal shading Shading building No No No No

[0165] On the basis of the establishment of each typical building model, the load index library of each typical building model is established by using energy consumption simulation software. The maintenance structure parameters, indoor thermal disturbance parameters, fresh air volume, and indoor design parameters of each typical building are set according to the relevant requirements of Jiangsu Public Building Energy Saving Design Standard (DGJ32J96-2010), Public Building Energy Saving Design Standard (GB50189-2015), and Residential Building Energy Saving Design Standard in Hot Summer and Cold Winter Area (JGJ 134-2010), as shown in Tables 2, 3, and 4.

[0166] Table 2 thermal parameters of maintenance structure

[0167]

[0168]

[0169] Table 3 indoor design parameters

[0170]

[0171] Table 4 indoor thermal disturbance parameters

[0172]

[0173] The proportion of each typical single building in this simulation project is residential: office: commercial: hotel = 50%: 19%: 26%: 5%. The regional building group cold and heat load index and the cold and heat load index of each typical building under the regional peak shifting characteristics can be obtained from the simulation results, as shown in Table 5.

[0174] Table 5 load index parameters

[0175]

[0176] The calculation method of predicting the cold and heat load index of the regional building group based on the cold and heat load index of each typical building is as follows:

[0177]

[0178] In the above formula, t ∈ {0, 1, 2, 3, …, 8759, 8760}, t is the time, and the unit is h;

[0179] i is the building type, i ∈ {1, 2, 3, …, n}, n is the number of building types;

[0180] Q tQ is the cold and heat load index of the regional building group at time t, with the unit of W / m 2 ;

[0181] X i is the weight ratio of each typical building in the regional building group, with the unit of %;

[0182] Q i,t is the cold and heat load index of each typical building at time t, with the unit of W / m 2 .

[0183] The cold load index of the regional building group in the production year is Q cool , and the heat load index is Q heat , with the unit of W / m 2 ;

[0184] Q cool = max(Q t ), Q heat = -min(Q t );

[0185] The energy consumption of different building types in the regional building group is not the same, and the annual change rate of the land development progress, occupancy rate, opening rate and energy consumption intensity of each typical building needs to be considered for load prediction of the regional building group. In this case, only four influencing factors are analyzed, and the calculation method of the annual change rate of the land development progress is as follows:

[0186]

[0187] In the above formula, T A,i is the starting construction year of different buildings, with the unit of year;

[0188] X i is the total construction year of each format, with the unit of year;

[0189] β is the progress influence factor, and its value range is 0.8-1.2.

[0190] The annual change rate of the land development progress obtained by calculation is shown in Table 6.

[0191] Table 6 Land development progress

[0192]

[0193]

[0194] The calculation method of the annual change rate of the occupancy rate is as follows:

[0195]

[0196] B i,0 is the initial number of users of each building, unit: households;

[0197] B i is the total number of users of each building, unit: households;

[0198] T B,i is the year of first occupancy, unit: years;

[0199] b is the occupancy growth rate;

[0200] δ is the occupancy influence factor, whose value range is 0.8-1.2.

[0201] The annual change rate of occupancy rate obtained by calculation is shown in Table 7.

[0202] Table 7 Occupancy rate

[0203]

[0204]

[0205] The calculation method of the annual change rate of energy intensity is as follows:

[0206]

[0207] C i,0 is the initial energy consumption of each building, unit: kWh;

[0208] C i is the total energy consumption of each building, unit: kWh;

[0209] T C,i is the year of starting energy consumption, unit: years;

[0210] c is the energy consumption growth rate;

[0211] α is the energy consumption influence factor, whose value range is 0.8-1.2.

[0212] The annual change rate of energy intensity obtained by calculation is shown in Table 8.

[0213] Table 8 Energy intensity

[0214]

[0215]

[0216] The calculation method of the opening rate is as follows:

[0217]

[0218] Di,0 is the initial number of energy supply users of each building, unit: house;

[0219] D i is the total number of occupied users of each building, unit: house;

[0220] T D,i is the year of opening energy supply, unit: year;

[0221] d is the opening growth rate;

[0222] θ is the opening rate influence factor, the value range is 0.8-1.2.

[0223] The opening rate obtained by calculation is shown in Table 9.

[0224] Table 9 Opening rate

[0225]

[0226]

[0227] According to the energy consumption planning of each typical building, different superposition ratios are adopted, so that the load index change of the regional building group year by year can be obtained. The load prediction results are statistically arranged to provide a selection basis for the system equipment of the energy station. The load index of the regional building group after superposition of different development and energy consumption parameters is statistically arranged, and the results are shown in Table 10. Among them, the traditional design line is not considered the load peak shifting characteristics of the format, and the superposition value of the maximum load of each format is directly used as the design line of the installed load; the optimized design line considers the load peak shifting characteristics of the format, and the maximum load value in a year is used as the design line of the installed load; the dynamic design line considers the superposition effect of the load peak shifting characteristics of the format, the development progress of the regional building, the occupancy rate, the use intensity and the energy opening rate.

[0228] The present application fully considers the basic characteristics of the regional building development and the energy consumption law of each typical building in the aspect of regional building group load prediction, including the factors such as regional building function distribution, development progress, occupancy rate, energy consumption intensity and opening rate, which is beneficial to reduce the installed capacity of the energy system, improve the system operation time and energy comprehensive utilization rate, and realize regional energy saving and emission reduction.

[0229] By constructing the regional building group cold load index Q T,cool , heat load index Q T,heat , unit: W / m 2 after superposition of each energy consumption index in different years in the calculation period, the calculation formula is:

[0230]

[0231]

[0232] In the formula, T is the calculation period year, and the unit is year.

[0233] The regional building group cold and heat load indexes Q of each energy consumption index after superposition in different years calculated t' See the dynamic design line in Table 10.

[0234] Table 10 regional building group load indexes under different load prediction methods

[0235]

[0236]

[0237] Due to the different energy consumption planning of different buildings in the regional building group, the regional building group load index after superposition of different development and energy consumption parameters is much smaller than the regional load index after simple superposition of each typical building, which will play a peak shaving role on the regional building group load.

[0238] The present application optimizes the regional building group load on the basis of the conventional load prediction, improves the accuracy and rationality of the regional load prediction, greatly reduces the system installation, is beneficial to the reasonable selection of the energy station equipment, avoids the low-efficiency and low-load state operation of the system caused by the too large equipment capacity, improves the system energy efficiency, and has high economic benefits.

[0239] Embodiment 2

[0240] As Figure 2 shown, on the basis of the above embodiment, the present embodiment further provides a regional building group dynamic evolution type load prediction system, which comprises: a typical building model establishing module, which establishes a corresponding typical building model and obtains the cold and heat load indexes of the corresponding typical building; a regional building group cold and heat load index calculation module, which predicts the cold and heat load indexes of the regional building group based on the cold and heat load indexes of each typical building; and a corresponding year regional building group cold and heat load index calculation module, which predicts the regional building group cold and heat load indexes in different years according to the development and energy consumption parameters of each typical building and the maximum value of the regional building group cold and heat load indexes.

[0241] In the present embodiment, the regional building group cold and heat load indexes are predicted based on the cold and heat load indexes of each typical building, that is, the cold and heat load indexes Q t of the regional building group at time t are set as 2 ; In the above formula, t is the time, t is the time, the unit is hour; i is the building type, i is the building type, n is the number of building types; X iis the weight ratio of each typical building in the regional building group, unit: %; Q i,t is the cold and heat load index of each typical building at time t, unit: W / m 2 .

[0242] In the embodiment, the cold and heat load indexes of the regional building group in different years are predicted according to the development and energy consumption parameters of each typical building and the maximum value of the cold and heat load index of the regional building group; that is, the development and energy consumption parameters are set as A i,T is the annual change rate of the land development progress of each typical building; B i,T is the annual change rate of the occupancy rate of each typical building; C i,T is the annual change rate of the energy consumption intensity of each typical building; D i,T is the annual change rate of the opening rate of each typical building; and the cold load index is set as Q cool , and the heat load index is set as Q heat , unit: W / m 2 , the corresponding maximum values of which are Q cool = max(Q t ), Q heat = -min(Q t ) respectively; the cold load index Q T,cool and the heat load index Q T,heat of the regional building group in different years are constructed, unit: W / m 2 , and the calculation formulas thereof are wherein T ∈ {1, 2, 3, …}, T is the year of the calculation period, unit: year; i is the building type, i ∈ {1, 2, 3, …, n}.

[0243] In the embodiment, the annual change rate of the land development progress, in the above formula, T A,i is the year of the start of construction of the corresponding building, unit: year; X i is the total construction years of each format, unit: year; β is the progress influence factor, the value range of which is 0.8-1.2; the annual change rate of the occupancy rate, in the above formula, B i,0 is the initial occupancy number of each building, unit: household; B i is the total number of users of each building, unit: household; T B,i is the year of the first occupancy, unit: year; b is the occupancy growth rate; δ is the occupancy influence factor, the value range of which is 0.8-1.2. The annual change rate of the energy consumption intensity, in the above formula, C i,0 is the initial energy consumption of each building, unit: kWh; C i is the total energy consumption of each building, unit: kWh; TC,i is the year of starting to use energy, unit is year; c is the energy consumption growth rate; a is the energy consumption influence factor, the value range is 0.8-1.2; the annual change rate of the opening rate, In the above formula, D i,0 is the initial number of open energy users of each building, unit is household; D i is the total number of users of each building, unit is household; T D,i is the year of starting to use energy, unit is year; d is the opening growth rate; theta is the opening rate influence factor, the value range is 0.8-1.2.

[0244] In the embodiment, the typical building model establishing module can input each item of basic data required for modeling by the user, so that the corresponding modeling software simulates a typical building, and then simulates the cold and heat load indexes of the typical building through energy consumption simulation software to form a load index database; the cold and heat load index calculation module of the regional building group can predict the cold and heat load indexes of the regional building group based on the above load index database through a calculation formula; the corresponding year regional building group cold and heat load index calculation module calculates the regional building group cold and heat load indexes after superimposing the development and energy consumption characteristics of each corresponding year by calculating the cold and heat load indexes of each typical building corresponding to the time when the predicted cold and heat load indexes of the regional building group reach the maximum. Through the cooperation of the above modules, dynamic evolution prediction is performed.

[0245] Example 3

[0246] On the basis of the above embodiment, the embodiment further provides a computer readable storage medium, characterized in that the computer readable storage medium stores computer executable instructions, and the computer executable instructions are used to make the computer execute the method as described above.

[0247] The functions, if realized in the form of software function modules and sold or used as independent products, can be stored in a computer readable storage medium. Based on such understanding, the technical solutions of the present application essentially or the parts of the prior art that make contributions or parts of the technical solutions can be embodied in the form of software products. The computer software product is stored in a storage medium, includes a plurality of instructions for making a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) execute all or part of the steps of the method described in the embodiments of the present application. The aforementioned storage medium includes: a U disk, a mobile hard disk, a read-only memory (ROM, Read-Only Memory), a random access memory (RAM, Random Access Memory), a magnetic disk or an optical disk, and various media that can store program codes.

[0248] In summary, the present application fully considers the basic characteristics of regional building development and the energy consumption law of each typical building in the aspect of regional building group load prediction, including factors such as regional building function distribution, development schedule, occupancy rate, energy consumption intensity and opening rate, which is beneficial to reduce the energy system installed capacity, improve the system operation time and energy comprehensive utilization rate, and realize regional energy saving and emission reduction. The present application optimizes the regional building group load on the basis of traditional load prediction, improves the accuracy and rationality of regional load prediction, greatly reduces the system installed capacity, is beneficial to the reasonable selection of energy station equipment, avoids the low efficiency and low load state operation of the system caused by the large capacity of the equipment, improves the system energy efficiency, and has high economic benefits.

[0249] Based on the above ideal embodiments according to the present application, through the above description, relevant personnel can make various changes and modifications without deviating from the technical idea of the present application. The technical scope of the present application is not limited to the content in the specification, and must be determined according to the scope of claims.

Claims

1. A method for dynamic evolution load forecasting of regional building clusters, characterized in that, Includes the following steps: Step S1: Obtain the heating and cooling load indices of the corresponding typical buildings through the typical building models; Step S2: Predict the heating and cooling load index of the building complex in the region based on the heating and cooling load index of each typical building. as well as Step S3: Based on the development and energy consumption parameters of each typical building and the maximum value of the regional building cluster's heating and cooling load index, predict the regional building cluster's heating and cooling load index in different years. The calculation method for predicting the cooling and heating load index of the building complex in step S2 based on the cooling and heating load index of each typical building is as follows: In the above formula, t∈{0,1,2,3,…,8759,8760}, where t is time and the unit is h; i represents the building type, i∈{1,2,3…,n}, and n represents the number of building types; Q t This refers to the heating and cooling load index of the building complex at time t, expressed in W / m². 2 ; X i This represents the weighting percentage of each typical building within the regional building complex, expressed as a percentage. Q i,t The heating and cooling load indices for typical buildings at time t are given in W / m². 2 ; The calculation method for predicting the regional building cluster's cooling and heating load index in different years in step S3, based on the development and energy consumption parameters of each typical building and when the regional building cluster's cooling and heating load index is at its maximum value, includes: The development and energy consumption parameters are set as follows: A i,T The annual rate of change in the land development progress of each typical building; B i,T This represents the annual change rate of occupancy rates for each typical building. C i,T The annual rate of change of energy intensity for each typical building; D i,T The annual change rate of the opening rate of each typical building; and Set the cold load index as Q cool The heat load index is Q heat The unit is W / m 2 Their corresponding maximum values ​​are respectively Q cool =max(Q t )、Q heat =-min(Q t ); Constructing regional building cluster cooling load index Q in different years T,cool Heat load index Q T,heat The unit is W / m 2 The calculation formulas are as follows: In the formula, T∈{1,2,3…}, T is the year of the calculation period, and the unit is years; i represents the building type, i∈{1,2,3…,n}.

2. The regional building complex dynamic evolution load forecasting method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The annual rate of change in the land development progress. In the above formula, T A,i The year in which construction of the corresponding building began, in years; X i The total number of years of construction for each business type, in years; β is the progress impact factor, and its value ranges from 0.8 to 1.2; The year-on-year change rate of the occupancy rate, In the above formula, B i,0 This represents the initial number of residents in each building, in units of households. B i This represents the total number of users in each building, in units of households. T B,i The year of first move-in is listed in years. b represents the occupancy growth rate; δ is the occupancy impact factor, with a value range of 0.8 to 1.2; The annual rate of change of energy intensity, In the above formula, C i,0 Initial energy consumption for each building, in kWh; C i This represents the total energy consumption of each building, expressed in kWh. T C,i The year in which energy consumption began, expressed in years; c represents the energy consumption growth rate; α is the energy consumption impact factor, and its value ranges from 0.8 to 1.2; The annual change rate of the activation rate, In the above formula, D i,0 The initial number of users connected to the energy supply for each building, in units of households; D i This represents the total number of residents in each building, expressed in households. T D,i The year in which the power was put into operation is in years; d. Opening growth rate; θ is the factor affecting the turnaround rate, and its value ranges from 0.8 to 1.

2.

3. A regional building complex dynamic evolution load forecasting system, characterized in that, include: The typical building model creation module creates corresponding typical building models and obtains the heating and cooling load indices of the corresponding typical buildings. The module for calculating the heating and cooling load index of a regional building complex predicts the heating and cooling load index of the entire regional building complex based on the heating and cooling load indexes of typical buildings; and The corresponding year's regional building cluster cooling and heating load index calculation module predicts the regional building cluster cooling and heating load index in different years based on the development and energy consumption parameters of each typical building and when the regional building cluster's cooling and heating load index is at its maximum value. The method predicts the cooling and heating load index of the regional building complex based on the cooling and heating load index of each typical building, that is, sets the cooling and heating load index Q of the regional building complex at time t. t The unit is W / m 2 ; In the above formula, t∈{0,1,2,3,…,8759,8760}, where t is the time in hours; i represents the building type, i∈{1,2,3…,n}, and n represents the number of building types; X i This represents the weighting percentage of each typical building within the regional building complex, expressed as a percentage. Q i,t The heating and cooling load indices for typical buildings at time t are given in W / m². 2 ; The method predicts the regional building cluster's heating and cooling load index in different years based on the development and energy consumption parameters of each typical building and the maximum value of the regional building cluster's heating and cooling load index. Right now The development and energy consumption parameters are set as follows: A i,T The annual rate of change in the land development progress of each typical building; B i,T This represents the annual change rate of occupancy rates for each typical building. C i,T The annual rate of change of energy intensity for each typical building; D i,T The annual change rate of the opening rate of each typical building; as well as Set the cold load index as Q cool The heat load index is Q heat The unit is W / m 2 Their corresponding maximum values ​​are respectively Q cool =max(Q t )、Q heat =-min(Q t ); Constructing regional building cluster cooling load index Q in different years T,cool Heat load index Q T,heat The unit is W / m 2 The calculation formulas are as follows: In the formula, T∈{1,2,3…}, T is the year of the calculation period, and the unit is years; i represents the building type, i∈{1,2,3…,n}.

4. The regional building complex dynamic evolution load forecasting system according to claim 3, characterized in that, The annual rate of change in the land development progress. In the above formula, T A,i The year in which construction of the corresponding building began, in years; X i The total number of years of construction for each business type, in years; β is the progress impact factor, and its value ranges from 0.8 to 1.2; The year-on-year change rate of the occupancy rate, In the above formula, B i,0 This represents the initial number of residents in each building, in units of households. B i This represents the total number of users in each building, in units of households. T B,i The year of first move-in is listed in years. b represents the occupancy growth rate; δ is the occupancy impact factor, with a value range of 0.8 to 1.2; The annual rate of change of energy intensity, In the above formula, C i,0 Initial energy consumption for each building, in kWh; C i This represents the total energy consumption of each building, in kWh. T C,i The year in which energy consumption began, expressed in years; c represents the energy consumption growth rate; α is the energy consumption impact factor, and its value ranges from 0.8 to 1.2; The annual change rate of the activation rate, In the above formula, D i,0 The initial number of users connected to the energy supply for each building, in units of households; D i This represents the total number of residents in each building, expressed in households. T D,i The year in which the power was put into operation is in years; d. Opening growth rate; θ is the factor affecting the turnaround rate, and its value ranges from 0.8 to 1.

2.

5. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, The computer-readable storage medium stores computer-executable instructions for causing a computer to perform the regional building complex dynamic evolution load forecasting method as described in claim 1 or 2.

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