Intelligent control method and device for combined heat and power system based on dynamic water temperature simulation

Abstract

The present invention discloses an intelligent control method and system for a combined heat and power system based on dynamic water temperature simulation. According to the heat loss caused by heat dissipation and the use of hot water, the water temperature simulation is used to dynamically simulate and predict the water temperature change in the next time period in the future, and the optimal temperature setting value and heating time point are obtained according to the change of the water temperature. By adjusting the optimal temperature setting value and heating time point, unnecessary heat loss during the non-heating period is reduced, and the same hot water demand is met with the lowest energy consumption and energy cost.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of heating, and in particular to an intelligent control device for a combined heat and power system based on dynamic water temperature simulation. Background Art

[0002] Climate change is one of the major issues facing humanity. The building sector accounts for 36% of global CO2 emissions and 40% of energy consumption, and is a major energy consumer. The domestic hot water (DHW) system is an energy-consuming system in the building sector. The design and configuration of the DHW system leads to huge thermal energy consumption and low energy efficiency during operation. There are two aspects to improve building energy efficiency: energy-saving measures and optimal control.

[0003] However, existing buildings cannot be retrofitted to improve the efficiency of DHW systems unless the entire building is renovated or the pipes are replaced. In DHW systems with recirculating pipes, there are two types of heat losses, namely heat losses due to thermal energy storage (TES) and heat losses associated with the recirculating loop (recirculating heat losses). Heat losses associated with TES are usually only a small part of the total energy consumption of the DHW system compared to heat losses, which vary depending on fuel type, tank size, insulation, and water loops. For recirculating heat losses, existing studies investigating centralized DHW systems with recirculating loops found that design engineers lacked an assessment of the actual DHW demand. The actual hot water consumption did not reach the expected design value. In fact, the actual hot water demand was only a small fraction of its expected design capacity, resulting in most of the generated heat energy being dissipated in the form of heat losses. Studies have shown that up to 73% of the energy is lost in centralized DHW with recirculating loops. In other studies, single-family homes have lower heat losses, with heat losses of about 38% in studies with recirculating loops and only 12.5% ​​in studies without recirculating loops. The main reason for the low energy efficiency is the low DHW consumption rate of these buildings. Other studies have confirmed that centralized DHW systems have significant heat losses due to the circulation loop and low DHW consumption. Other studies have established a relationship between the heat loss rate and the operating time of the circulation pipes. For full-day operation of the circulation pump, the heat loss amount is 60% or more.

[0004] The existing heating system has the following main problems: low energy efficiency; high operating costs; and high carbon emissions.

[0005] (1) Traditional heating systems have low energy efficiency. Since the exhaust gas (hot water) temperature of traditional heating systems is relatively high, the heat loss is relatively large. Secondly, during the installation of hot water circulation pipelines, unreasonable layout or nodes will also cause heat to be lost in the pipelines, resulting in low thermal efficiency. Finally, the operating mechanism of the heating unit cannot be matched according to user behavior habits. The equipment still runs during most of the time periods when heating is not needed, resulting in energy waste.

[0006] (2) High operating costs. The heat loss is too large. The proportion of heat energy produced by traditional heating systems that is used by end users is between 15% and 33%. Most of the heat energy is wasted in the transmission link, which increases the operating cost of the heating system.

[0007] (3) High carbon emissions. Traditional heating systems mostly use boilers to generate heat, using coal as fuel. The units need to be preheated when they are started, resulting in a large amount of useless carbon emissions. Summary of the invention

[0008] To this end, the present invention provides an intelligent control device for a cogeneration system based on dynamic water temperature simulation to solve the problems of low energy efficiency, high operating costs, and high carbon emissions in the existing heating system. The main strategy adopted by the present invention is to arrange the cogeneration unit during the peak electricity price period. In this way, while producing thermal energy, the amount of electricity imported from the power grid can be reduced during the peak electricity price period, thereby saving local electricity costs.

[0009] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:

[0010] According to a first aspect of an embodiment of the present invention, a method for intelligent control of a combined heat and power system based on dynamic water temperature simulation is proposed, the method comprising:

[0011] The heat dissipation coefficient is calculated based on the change in hot water temperature during the period when no hot water is used and combined with the outdoor temperature, and the heat loss is calculated based on the heat loss calculation model;

[0012] According to the heat loss caused by heat dissipation and the use of hot water, a water temperature simulation is used to dynamically simulate and predict the water temperature change in the next time period in the future. During the simulation, the temperature at the initial moment of the time period is continuously adjusted so that the predicted value of the temperature at the final moment of the time period reaches the first set threshold value, and the adjusted initial moment temperature value is used as the optimal temperature setting value;

[0013] Combined with the real-time temperature of hot water and the heating power of the cogeneration unit, the heating time required for advance heating to reach the optimal temperature setting value at the initial moment is calculated, and the advance heating time point to reach the optimal temperature setting value at the initial moment is obtained according to the advance heating time and combined with the set optimal time point of thermal energy scheduling, so as to control the cogeneration unit to work during the peak period of electricity price;

[0014] The start and stop of the cogeneration unit is controlled according to the obtained advance heating time point and the optimal temperature setting value at the initial moment.

[0015] Furthermore, the heat dissipation coefficient is calculated based on the water temperature change during the period when no hot water is used and combined with the outdoor temperature, including:

[0016] The calculation formula of heat dissipation coefficient k is:

[0017]

[0018] in, is the temperature at the initial time t0 of a period Δt without hot water use, is the final time t of a period Δt without hot water use f Temperature, T amb is the outdoor temperature.

[0019] Furthermore, the heat loss is calculated according to the heat loss calculation model, specifically including:

[0020] The hot water temperature of the system changes due to heat dissipation loss:

[0021]

[0022] Furthermore, based on the heat loss and hot water usage, water temperature simulation is used to dynamically simulate and predict the water temperature changes in the next time period in the future, including:

[0023] The water temperature changes in the next time period are:

[0024]

[0025] Among them, T cold is the cold water temperature, m cold is the hot water consumption, m is the total mass of hot water, and T(t) is the hot water temperature at time t.

[0026] Furthermore, during the simulation, the temperature at the initial moment of the time period is continuously adjusted so that the predicted value of the temperature at the final moment of the time period reaches the first set threshold, specifically including:

[0027] Randomly set the initial temperature value at the initial moment, and obtain the predicted value at the final moment through simulation;

[0028] If the predicted value is lower than the first set threshold, the initial temperature value is increased according to the preset temperature increase amplitude. If the predicted value is higher than the first set threshold, the initial temperature value is lowered according to the preset temperature decrease amplitude. The temperature is continuously adjusted until the predicted value reaches the first set threshold, and the final temperature value is used as the optimal temperature setting value.

[0029] Furthermore, the method also includes: obtaining the best time points for heat energy scheduling, including 8 o'clock, 12 o'clock and 21 o'clock, according to the time-of-use electricity price throughout the day and the heat energy production cost of the cogeneration unit.

[0030] Further, according to the obtained advance heating time point and the optimal temperature setting value at the initial moment, the start and stop of the cogeneration unit are controlled, which specifically includes:

[0031] Determine whether the current time is between 0:00 and 8:00 at night, and if so, control the combined heat and power generation unit to stop working;

[0032] If not, the cogeneration unit is turned on according to the obtained advance heating time point or controlled to start when the water temperature is detected to be lower than the first set threshold. If the obtained advance heating time point has not arrived and the water temperature is higher than the second set threshold, the unit is controlled to stop working.

[0033] Furthermore, the optimal temperature setting value does not exceed a maximum limit.

[0034] According to a second aspect of an embodiment of the present invention, an intelligent control device for a combined heat and power system based on dynamic water temperature simulation is proposed, the device comprising:

[0035] Data collection module, used to collect hot water temperature, outdoor air temperature data, cold water temperature, and hot water consumption;

[0036] The heat loss calculation module is used to calculate the heat dissipation coefficient according to the change of hot water temperature during the period when no hot water is used and the outdoor temperature, and calculate the heat loss according to the heat loss calculation model;

[0037] The water temperature simulator module is used to dynamically simulate and predict the water temperature change in the next time period in the future based on the heat loss caused by heat dissipation and the use of hot water by using water temperature simulation. During the simulation, the temperature at the initial moment of the time period is continuously adjusted so that the predicted value of the temperature at the final moment of the time period reaches the first set threshold value, and the adjusted initial moment temperature value is used as the optimal temperature setting value;

[0038] Combined with the real-time temperature of hot water and the heating power of the cogeneration unit, the heating time required for advance heating to reach the optimal temperature setting value at the initial moment is calculated, and the advance heating time point to reach the optimal temperature setting value at the initial moment is obtained according to the advance heating time and combined with the set optimal time point of thermal energy scheduling, so as to control the cogeneration unit to work during the peak period of electricity price;

[0039] The controller module is used to control the start and stop of the cogeneration unit according to the obtained advance heating time point and the optimal temperature setting value at the initial moment.

[0040] Furthermore, the controller module is specifically used for:

[0041] Determine whether the current time is between 0:00 and 8:00 at night, and if so, control the combined heat and power generation unit to stop working;

[0042] If not, the cogeneration unit is turned on according to the obtained advance heating time point or controlled to start when the water temperature is detected to be lower than the first set threshold. If the obtained advance heating time point has not arrived and the water temperature is higher than the second set threshold, the unit is controlled to stop working.

[0043] The invention proposes an intelligent control method and device for a combined heat and power system based on dynamic water temperature simulation, which has the following advantages:

[0044] (1) Low implementation difficulty: The present invention implements effective and refined building energy-saving operation management measures based on local heat demand without modifying the heating system of existing buildings, so as to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction of buildings. The present invention adopts refined management. According to weather conditions, the heat demand profile of each period and the changes in time-of-use electricity prices, by changing the working time of the internal combustion engine-based cogeneration unit, the hot water temperature of the circulating hot water pipe is dynamically adjusted, thereby achieving the reduction of building carbon emissions without reducing the quality of life.

[0045] (2) Reduce heat loss: Due to the use of low-temperature heating technology and the shutdown of the combined heat and power heating unit at night, that is, the combined heat and power system is stopped during the period when heat is not needed, so that excessive heat energy waste can be avoided in the heat energy transmission link. In addition, low-grade energy is used, which is applicable to any energy resource, including combined heat and power (waste incineration power generation, low-grade heat energy in industrial production).

[0046] (3) Reduce operating costs: By effectively utilizing return water to reduce heat loss in the primary heating network, operating costs can be further reduced. At the same time, most of the working time of the cogeneration system is scheduled to work during the peak electricity price period, and the generated electricity can be used in other electrical equipment, further reducing electricity costs.

[0047] (4) Strong flexibility: Since the operating temperature of the low-temperature system is low enough, plastic pipes can be used and the pipe size can be greatly reduced, thereby reducing the initial investment in the district heating network. For users, the main advantage of using return water from other areas in the heating network for heating is that it is not necessary to increase the capacity of the existing heating network (increase the pipe diameter) to meet the heating needs of new users. Therefore, more users can be connected to the heating network without additional pipeline investment, which means that the coverage area of ​​the district heating network is expanded. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0048] In order to more clearly illustrate the implementation methods of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for the implementation methods or the description of the prior art. Obviously, the drawings in the following description are only exemplary, and for ordinary technicians in this field, other implementation drawings can be derived from the provided drawings without creative work.

[0049] Figure 1 A schematic flow chart of an intelligent control method for a combined heat and power system based on dynamic water temperature simulation provided in Example 1 of the present invention;

[0050] Figure 2 This is a flow chart of an implementation of an intelligent control method for a combined heat and power system based on dynamic water temperature simulation provided in Example 1 of the present invention;

[0051] Figure 3 A flowchart for obtaining the optimal temperature setting value and heating time point in an intelligent control method for a combined heat and power system based on dynamic water temperature simulation provided in Example 1 of the present invention;

[0052] Figure 4 A schematic diagram of setting the optimal temperature setting value and heating time point in an intelligent control method for a combined heat and power system based on dynamic water temperature simulation provided in Example 1 of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0053] The following is a description of the implementation of the present invention by specific embodiments. People familiar with the art can easily understand other advantages and effects of the present invention from the contents disclosed in this specification. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0054] Example 1

[0055] like Figure 1 and Figure 2 As shown, this embodiment proposes an intelligent control method for a combined heat and power system based on dynamic water temperature simulation, the method comprising:

[0056] S100, calculating a heat dissipation coefficient according to a change in hot water temperature during a period when no hot water is used and in combination with the outdoor temperature, and calculating heat loss due to heat dissipation according to a heat loss calculation model.

[0057] The calculation formula of heat dissipation coefficient k is:

[0058]

[0059] in, is the temperature at the initial time t0 of a period Δt without hot water use, is the final time t of a period Δt without hot water use f Temperature, T amb is the outdoor temperature. For example, the water temperature change during the period without hot water use is recorded as 45℃(T(t0)) down to 40℃(T(t f ))Calculate the k value from the time Δt that has passed.

[0060] The hot water temperature of the system changes due to heat dissipation loss:

[0061]

[0062] S200. Based on the heat loss caused by heat dissipation and the use of hot water, a water temperature simulation is used to dynamically simulate and predict the water temperature change in the next time period in the future. During the simulation, the temperature at the initial moment of the time period is continuously adjusted so that the predicted value of the temperature at the final moment of the time period reaches a first set threshold value, and the adjusted initial moment temperature value is used as the optimal temperature setting value.

[0063] The calculated result of heat loss ΔT loss , cold water temperature T cold , hot water consumption m cold , input into the water temperature simulator to simulate the water temperature change in the next time period. The water temperature change in the next time period is:

[0064]

[0065] Among them, T cold is the cold water temperature, m cold is the hot water consumption, m is the total mass of hot water, and T(t) is the hot water temperature at time t.

[0066] The hot water consumption here can be simulated based on the hot water consumption at the same time of the previous day and the previous period of the day. The hot water consumption is the amount of cold water entering. The future water temperature is predicted based on the previous hot water usage. The hot water consumption at the same time of the previous day and the previous period of the day is calculated. For example, if the same time of the previous day is m1 and the previous period of the day is m2, 0.7*m1+0.3*m2=m cold Calculate m cold .

[0067] like Figure 3As shown, during the simulation, the temperature at the initial moment of the time period is continuously adjusted so that the predicted value of the temperature at the final moment of the time period reaches the first set threshold, and the adjusted temperature value at the initial moment is used as the optimal temperature setting value. Specifically, it includes first randomly setting the initial temperature value at the initial moment, and obtaining the predicted value at the final moment through simulation; if the predicted value is lower than the first set threshold, the initial temperature value is increased according to the preset temperature increase amplitude; if the predicted value is higher than the first set threshold, the initial temperature value is reduced according to the preset temperature decrease amplitude, and the adjustment is continuously made until the predicted value reaches the first set threshold, and the final temperature value is used as the optimal temperature setting value.

[0068] For example, if the actual situation is 10 o'clock in the morning, and now we want to determine the optimal water temperature at 12 o'clock, we first randomly set a value at 12 o'clock and simulate the water temperature change from 12 o'clock to 17 o'clock. If the simulated water temperature at 17 o'clock is lower than the set 39 degrees, then the water temperature at 12 o'clock is adjusted higher, and vice versa, until the simulated water temperature at 17 o'clock is 39 degrees. At this time, the water temperature at 12 o'clock is the optimal temperature setting value. The optimal temperature setting value does not exceed the maximum limit of 50℃.

[0069] The calculation results of the heat loss calculation model were imported into the water temperature simulator, which successfully simulated the water temperature changes in the next stage, and obtained the optimal temperature and heating time point based on the changes in water temperature. The device reduced unnecessary heat loss during non-heating periods by adjusting the optimal temperature setting point, and met the same hot water demand with the lowest energy consumption and energy cost.

[0070] S300, combining the real-time temperature of hot water and the heating power of the cogeneration unit, calculating the heating time required for advance heating when the optimal temperature setting value is reached at the initial moment, and obtaining the advance heating time point for reaching the optimal temperature setting value at the initial moment according to the advance heating time and the set optimal time point of thermal energy scheduling, so as to control the cogeneration unit to operate during the peak electricity price period.

[0071] In this embodiment, the optimal time point for heat energy scheduling is obtained based on the time-of-use electricity price throughout the day and the heat energy production cost of the cogeneration unit. The peak hours of electricity prices throughout the day are 8:00-12:00 and 21:00-24:00 respectively. It can be seen that 8 o'clock, 12 o'clock, and 21 o'clock are the dividing points between the high electricity price period and the flat price / low price period. Therefore, 8 o'clock, 12 o'clock, and 21 o'clock are selected as the optimal time points for heat energy scheduling, so as to control the cogeneration unit to work during the peak electricity price period. The working time of the cogeneration unit is arranged during the peak electricity price period, so that while producing heat energy, the amount of electricity imported from the power grid can be reduced during the peak electricity price period, saving local electricity costs.

[0072] According to the above example, assuming that the optimal water temperature at 12 o'clock is 43.6℃ through iteration, then the actual water temperature at 10 o'clock is used to determine whether heating is possible at this time. For example, if the water temperature is 42℃ at 10 o'clock, 0.7℃ can be heated per unit time period (15min). It is calculated that the water temperature can be heated from 42℃ to 43.6℃ within 45min. If the heating is started at 10 o'clock, the optimal water temperature cannot be achieved at 12 o'clock. As time goes by, the actual water temperature monitored at 11 o'clock is 40.8℃. According to the calculation of 43.6-40.8=2.8, it takes one hour to heat and the optimal water temperature can be reached at 12 o'clock. Then 11 o'clock is the appropriate time to start heating. Set theat=11:00.

[0073] Figure 4 Explains the optimal daily water temperature setting value T optimal and heating time t heat The optimal time points for the three heat energy scheduling are fixed at 8:00, 12:00 and 21:00. The difference is that the daily optimal water temperature setting value and advance heating time point need to be determined according to the hot water consumption and heat loss of the day, so each optimal water temperature setting value and advance heating time point are different every day.

[0074] S400, controlling the start and stop of the cogeneration unit according to the obtained advance heating time point and the optimal temperature setting value at the initial moment.

[0075] In this embodiment, the start-stop control process of the cogeneration unit is as follows:

[0076] Determine whether the current time is between 0:00 and 8:00 at night, and if so, control the combined heat and power generation unit to stop working;

[0077] If not, then the preheating time t is obtained. heat The combined heat and power generation unit is turned on or controlled to turn on when the water temperature is detected to be lower than the first set threshold (39°C). If the obtained advance heating time point has not arrived and the water temperature is higher than the second set threshold (40°C), the unit is controlled to stop working.

[0078] The specific control logic is as follows:

[0079]

[0080]

[0081]

[0082]

[0083] Determine whether to start the cogeneration unit based on the U value.

[0084] The intelligent control method of a combined heat and power system based on dynamic water temperature simulation proposed in the present invention has the following advantages:

[0085] (1) Low implementation difficulty: The present invention implements effective and refined building energy-saving operation management measures based on local heat demand without modifying the heating system of existing buildings, so as to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction of buildings. The present invention adopts refined management. According to weather conditions, the heat demand profile of each period and the changes in time-of-use electricity prices, by changing the working time of the internal combustion engine-based cogeneration unit, the hot water temperature of the circulating hot water pipe is dynamically adjusted, thereby achieving the reduction of building carbon emissions without reducing the quality of life.

[0086] (2) Reduce heat loss: Due to the use of low-temperature heating technology and the shutdown of the combined heat and power heating unit at night, that is, the combined heat and power system is stopped during the period when heat is not needed, so that excessive heat energy waste can be avoided in the heat energy transmission link. In addition, low-grade energy is used, which is applicable to any energy resource, including combined heat and power (waste incineration power generation, low-grade heat energy in industrial production).

[0087] (3) Reduce operating costs: By effectively utilizing return water to reduce heat loss in the primary heating network, operating costs can be further reduced. At the same time, most of the working time of the cogeneration system is scheduled to work during the peak electricity price period, and the generated electricity can be used in other electrical equipment, further reducing electricity costs.

[0088] (4) Strong flexibility: Since the operating temperature of the low-temperature system is low enough, plastic pipes can be used and the pipe size can be greatly reduced, thereby reducing the initial investment in the district heating network. For users, the main advantage of using return water from other areas in the heating network for heating is that it is not necessary to increase the capacity of the existing heating network (increase the pipe diameter) to meet the heating needs of new users. Therefore, more users can be connected to the heating network without additional pipeline investment, which means that the coverage area of ​​the district heating network is expanded.

[0089] Example 2

[0090] Corresponding to the above-mentioned embodiment 1, this embodiment proposes an intelligent control device for a combined heat and power system based on dynamic water temperature simulation, the device comprising:

[0091] Data collection module, used to collect hot water temperature, outdoor air temperature data, cold water temperature, and hot water consumption;

[0092] The heat loss calculation module is used to calculate the heat dissipation coefficient according to the change of hot water temperature during the period when no hot water is used and the outdoor temperature, and calculate the heat loss according to the heat loss calculation model;

[0093] The water temperature simulator module is used to dynamically simulate and predict the water temperature change in the next time period in the future based on the heat loss caused by heat dissipation and the use of hot water by using water temperature simulation. During the simulation, the temperature at the initial moment of the time period is continuously adjusted so that the predicted value of the temperature at the final moment of the time period reaches the first set threshold value, and the adjusted initial moment temperature value is used as the optimal temperature setting value;

[0094] Combined with the real-time temperature of hot water and the heating power of the cogeneration unit, the heating time required for advance heating to reach the optimal temperature setting value at the initial moment is calculated, and the advance heating time point to reach the optimal temperature setting value at the initial moment is obtained according to the advance heating time and combined with the set optimal time point of thermal energy scheduling, so as to control the cogeneration unit to work during the peak period of electricity price;

[0095] The controller module is used to control the start and stop of the cogeneration unit according to the obtained advance heating time point and the optimal temperature setting value at the initial moment.

[0096] Furthermore, the controller module is specifically used for:

[0097] Determine whether the current time is between 0:00 and 8:00 at night, and if so, control the combined heat and power generation unit to stop working;

[0098] If not, the cogeneration unit is turned on according to the obtained advance heating time point or controlled to start when the water temperature is detected to be lower than the first set threshold. If the obtained advance heating time point has not arrived and the water temperature is higher than the second set threshold, the unit is controlled to stop working.

[0099] The functions performed by the various components in the intelligent control device for a combined heat and power system based on dynamic water temperature simulation provided by the embodiment of the present invention have been introduced in detail in the above embodiment 1, so they will not be described in detail here.

[0100] Although the present invention has been described in detail above by general description and specific embodiments, it is obvious to those skilled in the art that some modifications or improvements can be made to the present invention. Therefore, these modifications or improvements made without departing from the spirit of the present invention all belong to the scope of protection claimed by the present invention.

Claims

1. An intelligent control method for a combined heat and power system based on dynamic water temperature simulation, characterized in that: The method comprises: The heat dissipation coefficient is calculated based on the change in hot water temperature during the period when no hot water is used and combined with the outdoor temperature, and the heat loss is calculated based on the heat loss calculation model; According to the heat loss caused by heat dissipation and the use of hot water, a water temperature simulation is used to dynamically simulate and predict the water temperature change in the next time period in the future. During the simulation, the temperature at the initial moment of the time period is continuously adjusted so that the predicted value of the temperature at the final moment of the time period reaches the first set threshold value, and the adjusted initial moment temperature value is used as the optimal temperature setting value; Combined with the real-time temperature of hot water and the heating power of the cogeneration unit, the heating time required for advance heating to reach the optimal temperature setting value at the initial moment is calculated, and the advance heating time point to reach the optimal temperature setting value at the initial moment is obtained according to the advance heating time and combined with the set optimal time point of thermal energy scheduling, so as to control the cogeneration unit to work during the peak period of electricity price; According to the obtained advance heating time point and the optimal temperature setting value at the initial moment, the start and stop of the cogeneration unit are controlled; it is determined whether the current time is between 0:00-8:00 at night, and if so, the cogeneration unit is controlled to stop working; if not, the cogeneration unit is turned on according to the obtained advance heating time point or when it is detected that the water temperature is lower than the first set threshold, the cogeneration unit is controlled to start, and if the obtained advance heating time point has not arrived and the water temperature is higher than the second set threshold, the unit is controlled to stop working.

2. According to claim 1, a method for intelligent control of a combined heat and power system based on dynamic water temperature simulation is characterized in that: The heat dissipation coefficient is calculated based on the water temperature change during the period when no hot water is used and combined with the outdoor temperature, including: The calculation formula of heat dissipation coefficient k is: in, is the temperature at the initial time t0 of a period Δt without hot water use, is the final time t of a period Δt without hot water use f Temperature, T amb is the outdoor temperature.

3. The intelligent control method for a combined heat and power system based on dynamic water temperature simulation according to claim 2 is characterized in that: Calculate the heat loss according to the heat loss calculation model, including: The hot water temperature of the system changes due to heat dissipation loss:

4. The intelligent control method for a combined heat and power system based on dynamic water temperature simulation according to claim 3 is characterized in that: According to the heat loss and hot water usage, water temperature simulation is used to dynamically simulate and predict the water temperature changes in the next time period in the future, including: The water temperature changes in the next time period are: Among them, T cold is the cold water temperature, m cold is the hot water consumption, m is the total mass of hot water, and T(t) is the hot water temperature at time t.

5. The intelligent control method for a combined heat and power system based on dynamic water temperature simulation according to claim 1 is characterized in that: During the simulation, the temperature at the initial moment of the time period is continuously adjusted so that the predicted value of the temperature at the final moment of the time period reaches the first set threshold, specifically including: Randomly set the initial temperature value at the initial moment, and obtain the predicted value at the final moment through simulation; If the predicted value is lower than the first set threshold, the initial temperature value is increased according to the preset temperature increase amplitude. If the predicted value is higher than the first set threshold, the initial temperature value is lowered according to the preset temperature decrease amplitude. The temperature is continuously adjusted until the predicted value reaches the first set threshold, and the final temperature value is used as the optimal temperature setting value.

6. The intelligent control method for a combined heat and power system based on dynamic water temperature simulation according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The method further comprises: obtaining the best time points for heat energy scheduling, including 8:00, 12:00 and 21:00, according to the time-of-use electricity price throughout the day and the heat energy production cost of the cogeneration unit.

7. The intelligent control method for a combined heat and power system based on dynamic water temperature simulation according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The optimal temperature setting value does not exceed the maximum limit.

8. An intelligent control device for a combined heat and power system based on dynamic water temperature simulation, characterized in that: The device comprises: Data collection module, used to collect hot water temperature, outdoor air temperature data, cold water temperature, and hot water consumption; The heat loss calculation module is used to calculate the heat dissipation coefficient according to the change of hot water temperature during the period when no hot water is used and the outdoor temperature, and calculate the heat loss according to the heat loss calculation model; The water temperature simulator module is used to dynamically simulate and predict the water temperature change in the next time period in the future based on the heat loss caused by heat dissipation and the use of hot water by using water temperature simulation. During the simulation, the temperature at the initial moment of the time period is continuously adjusted so that the predicted value of the temperature at the final moment of the time period reaches the first set threshold value, and the adjusted initial moment temperature value is used as the optimal temperature setting value; Combined with the real-time temperature of hot water and the heating power of the cogeneration unit, the heating time required for advance heating to reach the optimal temperature setting value at the initial moment is calculated, and the advance heating time point to reach the optimal temperature setting value at the initial moment is obtained according to the advance heating time and combined with the set optimal time point of thermal energy scheduling, so as to control the cogeneration unit to work during the peak period of electricity price; The controller module is used to control the start and stop of the cogeneration unit according to the obtained advance heating time point and the optimal temperature setting value at the initial moment; determine whether the current time is between 0:00 and 8:00 at night, and if so, control the cogeneration unit to stop working; if not, start the cogeneration unit according to the obtained advance heating time point or control the start of the cogeneration unit when it is detected that the water temperature is lower than a first set threshold value; if the obtained advance heating time point has not arrived and the water temperature is higher than a second set threshold value, control the unit to stop working.

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