A method for quantitatively evaluating wind-solar combined output capacity

Abstract

The application discloses a kind of quantification evaluation wind and light combined output ability method, first, wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation installed capacity data, output data are collected, and wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation combined output coefficient is calculated;Second, according to the 95% confidence interval data analysis method, determine the confidence lower limit;Finally, establish wind and light combined guaranteed output coefficient calculation model, according to wind and light combined guaranteed output quantity quantification wind and light combined power generation capacity.The method of the application compared with the existing method, wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation capacity coupling analysis can be carried out at present new energy main power generation form, avoid the limitation of the analysis single type new energy power generation capacity, fully consider the volatility of wind and light generation, obtain wind and light combined guaranteed output coefficient, quantification wind and light combined output ability, combined with the conservative case of wind and light participation balance, for wind and light participation power supply and demand, peak clipping, guaranteeing consumption, power grid strengthening and the like provide data reference.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of new energy power generation capacity, in particular to a method for quantitatively evaluating wind-solar combined power generation capacity. BACKGROUND

[0002] As the main forms of new energy power generation, wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation, how to quantitatively evaluate their power generation capacity is particularly important for providing data support for wind-solar power generation participating in power supply and demand and ensuring power reliability. SUMMARY

[0003] In order to solve the above problems, the present application provides a method for quantitatively evaluating wind-solar combined power generation capacity, which can quantitatively evaluate wind-solar combined power generation capacity and provide a basis for further wind-solar power generation planning and development, grid-connected dispatching, etc.

[0004] In order to achieve the above purpose, the present application is realized by the following technical scheme:

[0005] The present application is a method for quantitatively evaluating wind-solar combined power generation capacity, comprising the following steps:

[0006] Step 1, collecting wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation installed capacity data and power generation data;

[0007] Step 2, defining a wind-solar combined power generation coefficient function according to the collected wind-solar installed capacity data and power generation data;

[0008] Step 3, determining the wind-solar combined power generation coefficient in a set time period under a 95% confidence level;

[0009] Step 4, considering the conservative case of wind-solar power generation, establishing a wind-solar combined guaranteed power generation coefficient calculation model to quantitatively evaluate the wind-solar combined power generation capacity.

[0010] Further improvement of the present application is that the data collected in step 1 is specifically: wind power generation installed capacity data A1, A2, ···, A m , wind power generation data a1, a2, ···, a m , photovoltaic installed capacity data B1, B2, ···, B m , and photovoltaic power generation data b1, b2, ···, b m .

[0011] Further improvement of the present application is that the wind-solar combined power generation coefficient function in step 2 is expressed as:

[0012]

[0013] In the formula, P c is the wind-solar combined power generation coefficient at time c in m time periods, a c is the wind power generation at time c, and Ac is the wind power installed capacity at time c, b c is the photovoltaic power output at time c, B c is the photovoltaic power installed capacity at time c, c is any time in the m time period.

[0014] The further improvement of the present application is that the step 3 is specifically operated as:

[0015] Step 3.1, the wind-solar combined output coefficient corresponding to all times in the m time period is calculated;

[0016] Step 3.2, all wind-solar combined output coefficients in the m time period are arranged in descending order;

[0017] Step 3.3, the 95% probability minimum value in the m time period is the minimum value of the remaining number after discarding the last 5%.

[0018] The further improvement of the present application is that the expression of the wind-solar combined guaranteed output coefficient calculation model in step 4 is:

[0019]

[0020] In the formula, P w is the wind-solar combined guaranteed output coefficient in the m time period, P 5％n is the minimum wind-solar combined output coefficient after discarding the last 5% after arranging all wind-solar combined output coefficients in the m time period in descending order, a 5％n is the wind power output corresponding to the minimum wind-solar combined output coefficient after discarding the last 5% after arranging all wind-solar combined output coefficients in the m time period in descending order, A 5％n is the wind power installed capacity corresponding to the minimum wind-solar combined output coefficient after discarding the last 5% after arranging all wind-solar combined output coefficients in the m time period in descending order, b 5％n is the photovoltaic power output corresponding to the minimum wind-solar combined output coefficient after discarding the last 5% after arranging all wind-solar combined output coefficients in the m time period in descending order, B 5％n is the photovoltaic power installed capacity corresponding to the minimum wind-solar combined output coefficient after discarding the last 5% after arranging all wind-solar combined output coefficients in the m time period in descending order. The wind-solar combined output capacity quantization result in step 5 is:

[0021] D w ≥ P w × (A 5％n +B 5％n )

[0022] In the formula, D w is the wind-solar combined output capacity in the m time period, P w is the wind-solar combined guaranteed output coefficient in the m time period, A 5％nB is the minimum wind power installed capacity corresponding to the minimum wind-photovoltaic combined output coefficient after arranging all wind-photovoltaic combined output coefficients in the m time period from large to small and discarding the last 5%. 5％n B is the minimum wind power installed capacity corresponding to the minimum wind-photovoltaic combined output coefficient after arranging all wind-photovoltaic combined output coefficients in the m time period from large to small and discarding the last 5%.

[0023] The method of the present application couples and analyzes and calculates the wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation capacity, collects wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation installed data and output data, establishes a wind-photovoltaic combined guaranteed output coefficient calculation model, can quantitatively evaluate the wind-photovoltaic combined output capacity, and provides a basis for wind-photovoltaic power generation participating in power supply and demand and future development. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0024] Figure 1 is a flowchart of the method of the present application.

[0025] Figure 2 is a wind-photovoltaic combined output coefficient curve diagram of the method of the present application.

[0026] Figure 3 is a wind-photovoltaic combined guaranteed output coefficient of the method of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0027] In order to make the purpose, technical scheme and advantages of the present application clearer, the present application is further described in detail below in combination with the drawings and examples. It should be understood that the specific examples described herein are only used to explain the present application and do not limit the present application. In addition, the technical features involved in each embodiment of the present application described below can be combined with each other as long as they do not conflict with each other.

[0028] As shown in Figure 1 , the specific steps of the method for quantitatively evaluating the wind-photovoltaic combined output capacity in the present application are as follows:

[0029] Step 1, collect wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation installed data and output data, and the collected data is specifically: wind power installed data A1, A2,..., A m , wind power output data a1, a2,..., a m , photovoltaic installed data B1, B2,..., B m , and photovoltaic output data b1, b2,..., b m .

[0030] Step 2, define a wind-photovoltaic combined output coefficient function according to the collected wind-photovoltaic installed data and output data, and the expression of the wind-photovoltaic combined output coefficient function is:

[0031]

[0032] Pc= Pm / Pm c Pm= Pm / Pm c Pm= Pm / Pm c Pm= Pm / Pm c Pm= Pm / Pm c Pm= Pm / Pm

[0033] Step 3, determine the wind and light combined output coefficient in m time period under 95% confidence level;

[0034] According to the wind and light combined output coefficient function, the wind and light combined output coefficient corresponding to all time in m time period is:

[0035]

[0036] Arrange all wind and light combined output coefficients in m time period in descending order:

[0037] Pm= Pm / Pm max Pm= Pm / Pm min

[0038] The 95% probability minimum value in m time period is the minimum value of the remaining number after discarding the last 5%:

[0039] Pm= Pm / Pm max Pm= Pm / Pm 5％n Pm= Pm / Pm min

[0040] Pm= Pm / Pm max Pm= Pm / Pm min Pm= Pm / Pm 5％n Pm= Pm / Pm

[0041] Step 4, considering the conservative case of wind and light output, establish the wind and light combined guarantee output coefficient calculation model, and quantify the evaluation of wind and light combined output capacity:

[0042]

[0043] Pm= Pm / Pm w Pm= Pm / Pm 5％n Pm= Pm / Pm 5％nA 5％n b 5％n B 5％n C

[0044] Step 5: Quantify the wind-solar combined output capacity according to the wind-solar combined guaranteed output coefficient, and the quantification result of the wind-solar combined output capacity is:

[0045] D w ≥ P w × (A 5％n +B 5％n )

[0046] wherein, D w is the wind-solar combined output capacity in the m time period, P w is the wind-solar combined guaranteed output coefficient in the m time period, A 5％n is the wind power installed capacity corresponding to the minimum wind-solar combined output coefficient after arranging all wind-solar combined output coefficients in descending order and discarding the last 5% in the m time period, B 5％n is the photovoltaic power installed capacity corresponding to the minimum wind-solar combined output coefficient after arranging all wind-solar combined output coefficients in descending order and discarding the last 5% in the m time period.

[0047] Taking the data of one sampling point in a day of a province as an example, there are 288 sampling points, Figure 2 the curve diagram of the day, that is, the wind-solar combined output curve diagram, Figure 3 arranging all wind-solar combined output coefficients in descending order of the day, the minimum wind-solar combined output coefficient after discarding the last 5% can obtain the wind-solar combined guaranteed output coefficient. The wind-solar combined output capacity of the day is greater than or equal to 211.12 million kilowatts. The data of one sampling point in a day is shown in Table 1:

[0048] Table 1: Data of one sampling point in a day

[0049]

[0050]

[0051]

[0052]

[0053]

[0054]

[0055]

[0056] The above description is merely that of the preferred embodiments of the present application, but the protection scope of the present application is not limited thereto. Any person skilled in the art can easily think of changes or replacements within the technical range disclosed by the present application, which should be covered by the protection scope of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present application should be defined by the protection scope of the claims.

Claims

1. A method for quantitatively evaluating the combined wind and solar power output capability, characterized in that: Includes the following steps: Step 1: Collect installed capacity and output data for wind power and photovoltaic power generation; Step 2: Define the combined wind and solar power output coefficient function based on the collected wind and solar installed capacity data and power output data; Step 3: Determine the combined wind and solar power output coefficient within a set time period at a 95% confidence level; Step 4: Considering the conservative scenario of wind and solar power output, establish a calculation model for the combined wind and solar power output guarantee coefficient; Step 5: Quantify the combined wind and solar power output capacity based on the combined wind and solar power output coefficient; The combined wind and solar power output coefficient function in step 2 is expressed as follows: In the formula P c Let a be the combined wind and solar power output coefficient at time c within the time period m. c Let A be the wind power output at time c. c Let b be the installed capacity of wind power at time c. c For the photovoltaic power output at time c, B c Let c be the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation at time c, where c is any time within the time interval m; Step 3 involves the following steps: Step 3.1: Calculate the combined wind and solar power output coefficient for all times within the m-time period; Step 3.2: Arrange all wind-solar combined output coefficients in descending order within the m-time period; Step 3.3: The minimum value with a 95% probability within the m-time period is discarded, and the minimum value of the remaining number is taken. The expression for the calculation model of the combined wind and solar power output coefficient in step 4 is as follows: In the formula P w P is the combined wind and solar power output coefficient for the time period m. 5％n Let a be the smallest combined wind and solar power output coefficient after arranging all wind and solar power output coefficients from largest to smallest within a time period m and discarding the last 5%. 5％n Let A be the wind power output corresponding to the smallest combined wind and solar power output coefficient after arranging all wind and solar power output coefficients from largest to smallest and discarding the last 5% within a time period m. 5％n Let b be the installed wind power capacity corresponding to the smallest combined wind and solar power output coefficient after arranging all wind and solar power output coefficients from largest to smallest and discarding the last 5%. 5％n Let B be the photovoltaic output corresponding to the smallest combined wind and solar power output coefficient after arranging all wind and solar power output coefficients in descending order and discarding the last 5%. 5％n The photovoltaic installed capacity is the smallest combined wind and solar power output coefficient after arranging all wind and solar power output coefficients from largest to smallest and discarding the last 5% within the time period m. The quantitative result of the combined wind and solar power output capacity in step 5 is as follows: D w ≥P w ×(A 5％n +B 5％n ) In the formula, D w The combined wind and solar power output capacity within a time period m.

2. The method for quantitatively evaluating the combined wind and solar power output capacity according to claim 1, characterized in that: The data collected in step 1 specifically includes: wind power installed capacity data A1, A2, ..., A at the same interval within the time period m. m Wind power output data a1, a2, ..., a m Photovoltaic installed capacity B1, B2, ..., B m Photovoltaic power output data b1, b2, ..., b m .

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