A method and terminal for generating an electricity supply assurance scheme

Abstract

The application discloses a method and a terminal for generating a power supply guarantee scheme, obtains power demand prediction data and calculates power supply data, and obtains power profit and loss data by subtracting the power demand prediction data from the power supply data; the power profit and loss data can be used to obtain the profit and loss of power, if the power is in loss, a demand side response power supply guarantee scheme is generated when the loss power is less than a first preset load, and a power supply guarantee scheme combining the demand side response and power exchange is generated when the loss power is greater than or equal to the first preset load. Therefore, the power supply guarantee scheme considering the demand side response and the power exchange can fully tap the internal adjustable load and external power supply capacity on the basis of the original power supply and demand balance, and guarantee the safe and reliable power supply under extreme conditions.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of power grid, in particular to a method for generating power supply guarantee scheme and a terminal. BACKGROUND

[0002] At present, while developing wind power, solar power and other non-carbon emission energy, investigating the characteristics of existing power supply, excavating adjustable load from demand side, and using the advantages and characteristics of large power grid and ultra-high voltage advanced technology to increase the scale of power exchange between provinces or cities can enhance the reliability of provincial power grid power supply.

[0003] However, the previous power supply guarantee scheme focuses on whether the total power demand and the power supply capacity are balanced from the macro perspective, and almost no attention is paid to the role of adjustable load and power exchange from the perspective of refinement. SUMMARY

[0004] The technical problem to be solved by the present application is to provide a method for generating a power supply guarantee scheme, which can excavate internal adjustable load and external power supply capacity on the basis of original power supply and demand balance, and guarantee safe and reliable power supply under extreme conditions.

[0005] To solve the above technical problems, the technical scheme adopted by the present application is:

[0006] A method for generating a power supply guarantee scheme, comprising the steps of:

[0007] obtaining power demand prediction data, calculating power supply data, the power supply data being equal to power installed capacity minus power blocked capacity and power maintenance capacity, and subtracting the power supply data from the power demand prediction data to obtain power surplus and deficit data;

[0008] If the power deficit is obtained according to the power surplus and deficit data, a demand side response power supply guarantee scheme is generated when the deficit power is less than a first preset load, and a power supply guarantee scheme combining demand side response and power exchange is generated when the power surplus and deficit data is greater than or equal to the first preset load.

[0009] To solve the above technical problems, another technical scheme adopted by the present application is:

[0010] A terminal for generating a power supply guarantee scheme, comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, the processor executing the computer program to implement the following steps:

[0011] obtaining power demand prediction data, calculating power supply data, the power supply data being equal to power installed capacity minus power blocked capacity and power under repair capacity, obtaining power profit and loss data by subtracting the power demand prediction data from the power supply data;

[0012] if power loss is obtained according to the power profit and loss data, generating a power supply guarantee scheme combining demand side response and power exchange when the power loss is greater than or equal to the first preset load.

[0013] The present application has the advantages that: power demand prediction data is obtained and power supply data is calculated, and power profit and loss data is obtained by subtracting the power demand prediction data from the power supply data; power profit and loss is obtained according to the power profit and loss data, and a power supply guarantee scheme combining demand side response and power exchange is generated when the power loss is greater than or equal to the first preset load if power loss is obtained. Therefore, a power supply guarantee scheme considering demand side response and power exchange is generated, and internal adjustable load and external power supply capacity can be fully tapped on the basis of original power supply and demand balance, and power supply safety and reliability under extreme conditions is ensured. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0014] Figure 1 a flow chart of a method for generating a power supply guarantee scheme according to an embodiment of the present application;

[0015] Figure 2 a schematic diagram of a terminal for generating a power supply guarantee scheme according to an embodiment of the present application;

[0016] REFERENCE NUMERALS:

[0017] 1. A terminal for generating a power supply guarantee scheme; 2. a memory; 3. a processor. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0018] To make the technical content, purposes and effects of the present application clear, the following will be described in detail in combination with embodiments and the accompanying drawings.

[0019] Please refer to Figure 1 The embodiment of the present application provides a method for generating a power supply guarantee scheme, comprising the steps of:

[0020] obtaining power demand prediction data, calculating power supply data, the power supply data being equal to power installed capacity minus power blocked capacity and power under repair capacity, obtaining power profit and loss data by subtracting the power demand prediction data from the power supply data;

[0021] If the power loss is obtained according to the power profit and loss data, a power supply guarantee scheme combining demand side response and power exchange is generated when the loss power is greater than or equal to the first preset load.

[0022] From the above description, the beneficial effects of the present application are that power demand prediction data is obtained and power supply data is calculated, and the power profit and loss data can be obtained after the power supply data is subtracted from the power demand prediction data; according to the power profit and loss data, the profit and loss of power can be obtained, and if the power loss is obtained, a power supply guarantee scheme of demand side response is generated when the loss power is less than the first preset load, and a power supply guarantee scheme combining demand side response and power exchange is generated when the loss power is greater than or equal to the first preset load. Therefore, the power supply guarantee scheme considering demand side response and power exchange is generated, which can fully tap the internal adjustable load and external power supply capacity on the basis of the original power supply and demand balance, and guarantee the safe and reliable power supply under extreme conditions.

[0023] Further, the power supply data is calculated, and the power supply data is equal to the power installed capacity minus the power blocked capacity and the power maintenance capacity, and specifically includes:

[0024] The power installed capacity is calculated:

[0025]

[0026]

[0027] In the formula, represents the power installed capacity of i city and j type in t month, represents the power installed capacity of j type in t month, t in and t out respectively represent the commissioning time and the decommissioning time of the corresponding unit, n represents the number of cities, and j represents the power type;

[0028] The power blocked capacity is calculated:

[0029]

[0030]

[0031] In the formula, represents the power blocked capacity of i city and j type in t month, represents the power blocked capacity of j type in t month, t a represents the blocked month;

[0032] The power maintenance capacity is calculated:

[0033]

[0034]

[0035] In the formula, represents the repair capacity of the power supply of i city in t month and j type, represents the repair capacity of the power supply of j type in t month, and tr represents the repair month;

[0036] The power supply data is calculated as follows:

[0037]

[0038] In the formula, represents the power supply data of i city in t month, and m represents the number of power supply types.

[0039] As can be seen from the above description, after the installed capacity, the blocked capacity and the repair capacity of the power supply are calculated, the power supply data is obtained by balancing the power supply and demand, which is convenient for subsequent profit and loss calculation.

[0040] Further, the power supply data is subtracted from the power demand prediction data to obtain power profit and loss data, which includes:

[0041] The power profit and loss data is calculated as follows:

[0042]

[0043] In the formula, G i，t represents the power profit and loss data of i city in t month, represents the power demand prediction data of i city in t month, m represents the number of power supply types, Rt represents the actual demand response capacity, and g represents the power exchange amount.

[0044] As can be seen from the above description, the power profit and loss data is calculated by balancing the power supply and demand, which is convenient for subsequent power supply guarantee scheme for loss power.

[0045] Further, the power supply guarantee scheme for demand side response includes:

[0046] The demand side response capacity of each time period is calculated as follows:

[0047] R i，t =∑ k r i，k，t *α i，k，t ;

[0048]

[0049] In the formula, R i，t represents the actual demand response capacity, and R trepresents the total actual demand response capacity in the tth month, r represents the contracted capacity of demand side response, a represents the response coefficient, t represents the month, i represents the city, and k represents the industry category;

[0050] According to the demand side response capacity, the demand side response concentration of each region is calculated:

[0051] C α = (r i，k，t / R i，t ) / (R k，t / R t );

[0052] The first power supply guarantee scheme of demand side response is generated in combination with the demand side response capacity and the demand side response concentration.

[0053] It can be known from the above description that, for the case that the loss power is less than the first preset load, the first power supply guarantee scheme of demand side response is generated for slight loss, and an adaptive power supply guarantee scheme can be flexibly provided.

[0054] Further, the generation of the power supply guarantee scheme in combination with the demand side response and the power exchange comprises:

[0055] The first power supply guarantee scheme of demand side response is generated in combination with the demand side response capacity and the demand side response concentration.

[0056] The power exchange data of each time period is calculated, and the second power supply guarantee scheme is generated in combination with the first power supply guarantee scheme of demand side response and the power exchange data.

[0057] It can be known from the above description that, for the case that the loss power is greater than or equal to the first preset load, the second power supply guarantee scheme of demand side response is generated for moderate and severe loss, and an adaptive power supply guarantee scheme can be flexibly provided.

[0058] Please refer to Figure 2 , another embodiment of the present application provides a terminal for generating a power supply guarantee scheme, comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, and the processor implements the following steps when executing the computer program:

[0059] Obtaining power demand prediction data, calculating power supply data, the power supply data being equal to power installed capacity minus power blocked capacity and power maintenance capacity, and obtaining power profit and loss data by subtracting the power demand prediction data from the power supply data;

[0060] If the power loss is obtained according to the power profit and loss data, a power supply guarantee scheme combining demand side response and power exchange is generated when the power loss is greater than or equal to the first preset load.

[0061] As can be seen from the above description, the power demand prediction data is obtained and the power supply data is calculated, and the power profit and loss data is obtained by subtracting the power demand prediction data from the power supply data; the power profit and loss is obtained according to the power profit and loss data, if the power loss is obtained, a power supply guarantee scheme of demand side response is generated when the power loss is less than the first preset load, and a power supply guarantee scheme combining demand side response and power exchange is generated when the power loss is greater than or equal to the first preset load. Therefore, the power supply guarantee scheme considering demand side response and power exchange is generated, which can fully tap the internal adjustable load and external power supply capacity on the basis of the original power supply and demand balance, and ensure the safe and reliable power supply under extreme conditions.

[0062] Further, the power supply data is calculated, and the power supply data is equal to the power installed capacity minus the power blocked capacity and the power maintenance capacity, specifically comprising:

[0063] The power installed capacity is calculated as follows:

[0064]

[0065]

[0066] In the formula, represents the power installed capacity of i city and j type in t month, represents the power installed capacity of j type in t month, and c represents the capacity of a single unit, t in and t out respectively represent the commissioning time and the decommissioning time of the corresponding unit, n represents the number of cities, and j represents the power type;

[0067] The power blocked capacity is calculated as follows:

[0068]

[0069]

[0070] In the formula, represents the power blocked capacity of i city and j type in t month, represents the power blocked capacity of j type in t month, and t a represents the blocked month;

[0071] The power maintenance capacity is calculated as follows:

[0072]

[0073]

[0074] In the formula, This indicates the maintenance capacity of power supply type j in city i during month t. This indicates the maintenance capacity of power supply type t in month j, t r Indicates the month of maintenance;

[0075] Calculate power supply data:

[0076]

[0077] In the formula, This represents the electricity supply data for city i in month t, where m represents the number of power source types.

[0078] As described above, after calculating the installed capacity, blocked capacity, and maintenance capacity of the power source, the power supply data is obtained by balancing the power supply and demand situation, which facilitates subsequent profit and loss calculations.

[0079] Furthermore, subtracting the electricity demand forecast data from the electricity supply data to obtain the electricity profit and loss data includes:

[0080] Calculate electricity profit and loss data:

[0081]

[0082] In the formula, represents the electricity profit and loss data for city i in month t. This represents the electricity demand forecast data for city i in month t, where m represents the number of power source types, and R... t denoted by g, which represents the actual demand response capacity, and g represents the power exchange volume.

[0083] As described above, by balancing the power supply and demand situation and calculating the power surplus and deficit data, it is easier to provide power supply guarantee plans for power losses in the future.

[0084] Furthermore, the power supply guarantee scheme for generating demand-side response includes:

[0085] Calculate the demand-side response capacity for each time period:

[0086] R i，t =∑ k r i，k，t *α i，k，t ;

[0087]

[0088] In the formula, R i，tRt represents the total actual demand response capacity in month t, r represents the contracted capacity of demand-side response, α represents the response coefficient, t represents the month, i represents the city, and k represents the industry category.

[0089] Calculate the demand-side response concentration in each region based on the aforementioned demand-side response capacity:

[0090] C α =(r i，k，t / R i，t ) / (R k，t / R t );

[0091] The first power supply guarantee scheme for demand-side response is generated by combining the demand-side response capacity and the demand-side response concentration.

[0092] As can be seen from the above description, when the power loss is less than the first preset load, the first power supply guarantee scheme for generating demand-side response to slight power loss can flexibly provide an adaptive power supply guarantee scheme.

[0093] Furthermore, the generation of a power supply guarantee scheme that combines demand-side response and power exchange includes:

[0094] A first power supply guarantee scheme for demand-side response is generated by combining the demand-side response capacity and the demand-side response concentration.

[0095] Calculate the power exchange data for each time period, and generate a second power supply guarantee plan by combining the first power supply guarantee plan based on the demand-side response and the power exchange data.

[0096] As can be seen from the above description, for situations where the power loss is greater than or equal to the first preset load, the second power supply guarantee scheme for generating demand-side response in cases of moderate and severe power loss can flexibly provide an adaptive power supply guarantee scheme.

[0097] The method and terminal for generating a power supply guarantee scheme described above are applicable to the flexible design of monthly power supply guarantee schemes. Based on the existing power supply and demand balance, they fully utilize internal adjustable loads and external power supply capabilities to ensure a safe and reliable power supply under extreme conditions. The following describes specific implementation methods:

[0098] Example 1

[0099] Please refer to Figure 1 A method for generating a power supply guarantee plan includes the following steps:

[0100] S1. Obtain electricity demand forecast data and calculate electricity supply data. The electricity supply data is equal to the installed power capacity minus the power supply disruption capacity and the power supply maintenance capacity. Subtract the electricity demand forecast data from the electricity supply data to obtain electricity profit and loss data.

[0101] S11. Obtain electricity demand forecast data.

[0102]

[0103] In the formula, This represents the electricity demand forecast data for city i in Fujian Province in month t. This indicates the peak load situation in city i, Fujian Province in month t. This represents the load reserve rate of city i in Fujian Province in month t.

[0104] S12, Calculate power supply data.

[0105] Calculate the installed power supply capacity:

[0106]

[0107]

[0108] In the formula, This indicates the installed capacity of power supplies of type j in city i during month t. This indicates the installed capacity of power supply type tj, where c represents the capacity of a single unit, and t in and t out The numbers represent the commissioning and decommissioning times of the corresponding generating units, n represents the number of cities, and j represents the power source type. In this embodiment, i = 1, 2, ..., 9 correspond to the 9 prefecture-level cities in Fujian Province, and j = 1, 2, ..., 10 correspond to 10 power source types, including coal-fired power, oil-fired power, gas-fired power, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, solar power, pumped storage, energy storage, biomass, and others.

[0109] Calculate the utilization hours of equipment for different unit types:

[0110]

[0111] In the formula, H j,t This represents the utilization hours of unit equipment of type t in month j. This formula can be used to predict future values ​​based on historical trends.

[0112] Multiplying the equipment utilization hours by the installed capacity yields the power generation data and forecasts for different unit types:

[0113]

[0114]

[0115] In the formula, This indicates the power generation of type j power source in city i in month t. This indicates the power generation of type t month j;

[0116] Collect the names of affected power plants, unit numbers, cities / prefectures, months of disruption, and affected capacities. Categorize and summarize by power source type within each city / prefecture, and mark unstable power sources such as hydropower, wind power, and solar power to calculate the affected power capacity.

[0117]

[0118]

[0119] In the formula, This indicates the resistance capacity of power supply type j in month i. This indicates the resistance capacity of the power supply of type t month j, t a Indicates the month in which the obstruction occurred;

[0120] The maximum blocked capacity is:

[0121] Collect information on the power plant name, unit number, city / prefecture location, planned maintenance month, and planned maintenance capacity (for the planned maintenance month), and summarize this information by power source type within each city / prefecture. Mark adjustable maintenance time and capacity; specifically, calculate the power source maintenance capacity.

[0122]

[0123]

[0124] In the formula, This indicates the maintenance capacity of power supply type j in city i during month t. This indicates the maintenance capacity of power supply type t in month j, t r Indicates the month of maintenance;

[0125] Calculate power supply data:

[0126]

[0127] In the formula, This represents the electricity supply data for city i in month t, where m represents the number of power source types.

[0128] S13. Calculate electricity profit and loss data:

[0129]

[0130]

[0131] In the formula, represents the electricity profit and loss data for city i in month t. This represents the electricity demand forecast data for city i in month t, where m represents the number of power source types, and R... t denoted by g, which represents the actual demand response capacity, and g represents the power exchange volume.

[0132] S2. If a power deficit is obtained based on the power surplus and deficit data, a power supply guarantee scheme with demand-side response is generated when the power deficit is less than the first preset load. If the power surplus and deficit data is greater than or equal to the first preset load, a power supply guarantee scheme combining demand-side response and power exchange is generated.

[0133] For a specific regional power grid, based on the above basic calculations, the power supply and demand balance can be divided into three situations: power surplus, power balance, and power deficit.

[0134] (1) In the event of a power surplus, the power grid in this region will consider sending out power through power exchange to increase the grid's revenue.

[0135] (2) Under the condition of power balance, the power grid in this area reaches a balanced state, which is an ideal state.

[0136] (3) In the event of power shortage, the power grid in this region needs to take reliable power supply measures.

[0137] If an electricity deficit is obtained based on the electricity surplus and deficit data, then the first preset load is set to 5% of the annual maximum load Lmax, and the second preset load is set to 10% of the annual maximum load Lmax. The standards for classifying the electricity deficit levels are as follows: Slight deficit: deficit electricity < Lmax * 5%; Moderate deficit: Lmax * 5% ≤ deficit electricity < Lmax * 10%; Severe deficit: deficit electricity ≥ Lmax * 10%.

[0138] S21. A power supply guarantee scheme that generates demand-side response when there is a slight loss.

[0139] Demand-side response data includes contracted capacity, demand-side response capacity, available response time, and response coefficient for categories such as agriculture, industry, commerce, residential, electric vehicles, energy storage, and public management organizations. The actual demand-side response capacity is the product of the demand-side response capacity and the response coefficient, and the response electricity is the integral sum of the actual response capacity and the response time. The response ceiling is the contracted capacity, and the forecast data is a trend extrapolation of the categorized response capacity after considering the response ceiling.

[0140] Specifically, the calculation of demand-side response capacity for each time period is as follows:

[0141] R i，t =∑ k r i，k，t *α i，k，t ;

[0142]

[0143] In the formula, R i，t Rt represents the total actual demand response capacity in month t, r represents the contracted capacity of demand-side response, α represents the response coefficient, t represents the month, i represents the city, and k represents the industry category, including agriculture, industry, commerce, residential, electric vehicles, energy storage, public management organizations, and other industry categories.

[0144] The concentration of demand-side response in different cities is calculated based on response capacity and industry category, i.e., the demand-side response advantage of a certain industry in a certain city:

[0145] Cα=(r i，k，t / R i，t ) / (R k，t / R t );

[0146] The response capacity is arranged by city and industry, and then clustered and stratified according to data characteristics. Within the same stratum, priority is given to response advantages (response concentration) in a particular city or industry, and the power deficit is "filled" sequentially. When the cumulative demand-side response capacity is greater than or equal to 1.05 times the power deficit, a demand-side response plan is formed. This plan includes the response targets, the response order, and also considers a 5% reserve response.

[0147] S22. When there is a moderate loss, generate a power supply guarantee scheme that combines demand-side response and power exchange.

[0148] The first power supply guarantee scheme for demand-side response is generated by combining the demand-side response capacity and the demand-side response concentration; the power exchange situation in each month is analyzed, and the power transmission to other regions is reduced or the power purchase to other regions is increased; the priority order for reducing power transmission to other regions or increasing the power purchase to other regions is designed, and a power supply guarantee scheme is issued.

[0149] Specifically, power exchange includes inter-provincial power exchange and inter-city power exchange. i (i = 1, 2, ..., 9, corresponding to the 9 prefecture-level cities in Fujian Province), the indicators used include the upper limit of the receiving power grid's power receiving capacity, the upper limit of the receiving capacity, and the planned power transmission and receiving scale. For a certain region, if the planned power transmission scale is less than or equal to the upper limit of the power receiving capacity and the receiving capacity, the power transmission is marked as a negative value, and the power receiving is marked as a positive value.

[0150] When the power deficit exceeds the total demand-side response capacity, the province's power supply capacity can be increased by reducing power exports and increasing power imports. The formula for calculating the maximum increase in power supply through power exchange measures is as follows:

[0151]

[0152] In the formula, This represents the upper limit of the receiving capacity of the i-th channel; Let represent the planned power transmission and reception scale of the i-th channel, where the planned power transmission scale is denoted as a negative value and the planned power reception scale is denoted as a positive value.

[0153] The order of preference for reducing electricity exports or increasing electricity purchases is price-prioritized. This involves comparing the sales price of electricity exported through transmission channels or the purchase price of electricity received through import channels, prioritizing reducing exported electricity or increasing imported electricity at the lower price. When prices are comparable, the electricity channel with lower carbon emissions is selected, as shown in the following formula:

[0154] Min(P i，k );

[0155] Min (Carbon) i，k );

[0156] Carbon i，k =Q i，k *β k ;

[0157] In the formula, P i This represents the transaction price of the k-th type of electricity transmitted through the i-th channel, Carbon. i Q represents the carbon emissions of the electricity transmitted via the i-th channel using the k-th method. i.k For the k-th type of electrical quantity transmitted in the i-th channel, β k Let i be the carbon emission factor of the k-th type of electricity transmitted, where i takes the values ​​1, 2, 3, ..., n, and k takes the values ​​1, 2, 3, representing coal-fired power, oil-fired power, and gas-fired power, respectively.

[0158] The forecast data for the future period uses the latest year's values, while also taking into account the capacity and commissioning time of newly planned channels and channel expansions.

[0159] S23. In cases of severe power shortages, when demand-side factors and power exchange cannot meet the power deficit, short-term measures include adjusting maintenance plans and orderly power consumption, while long-term measures include increasing the scale and capacity of power exchange and constructing new power generation capacity. The solution presented in this embodiment allows for early warning of such situations and proactive planning.

[0160] Example 2

[0161] The difference between this embodiment and Embodiment 1 is that it provides a specific application scenario for a power supply guarantee scheme that generates a demand-side response when there is a slight power loss:

[0162] In the summer of 2022, Fujian Province's maximum load demand was 50 million kilowatts. Based on the basic power supply module calculation, the maximum available power in the summer was 48 million kilowatts, resulting in a power deficit of 2 million kilowatts. The demand-side response resources in Fujian Province during the summer are shown in Table 1.

[0163] Table 1. Demand Response Capacity (Ten Thousand Kilowatts) of Fujian Province by City and Industry in Summer 2022

[0164]

[0165]

[0166] (1) Calculate the degree of power loss and select a preliminary power supply guarantee plan.

[0167] The power loss is calculated as 4% based on the loss amount divided by the maximum load demand. This value is less than 5%, and is therefore considered a mild loss. Thus, a demand-side response scheme can be prioritized for power supply assurance design.

[0168] (2) Calculate the response concentration according to Formula 17 α The results are shown in Table 2.

[0169] Table 2. Concentration of Demand Response by City and Industry in Fujian Province

[0170]

[0171]

[0172]

[0173] (3) Arrange the data in descending order according to the response capacity, analyze the data characteristics, and perform clustering and hierarchical analysis.

[0174] Cluster analysis was performed on the response capacity data of Fujian Province by city and industry in the summer of 2022, dividing it into four layers. The first layer consists of the industrial response capacity of Quanzhou and Fuzhou, which ranked 1st and 2nd respectively; the second layer consists of the 3rd to 5th ranked industries; the third layer consists of the 6th to 11th ranked industries; and the fourth layer consists of the 12th to 63rd ranked industries.

[0175] (4) Sort the responses in order of clustering hierarchy, response concentration, capacity, etc.;

[0176] (5) Calculate the cumulative impact and determine whether the impact continues if the cumulative response is less than or equal to 1.05 times the power loss (i.e., 2 million kilowatts * 1.05 = 2.1 million kilowatts).

[0177] (6) Finally, a demand-side response plan was formulated to address the 2 million kilowatt power shortage during the summer. Specifically, Quanzhou's industrial sector was to respond with 500,000 kilowatts, Fuzhou's industrial sector with 492,000 kilowatts, and Zhangzhou's industrial sector, Ningde's industrial sector, Xiamen's industrial sector, Xiamen's commercial sector, Fuzhou's commercial sector, and Sanmen's industrial sector were to respond with 275,000, 201,000, 322,000, 122,000, 85,000, and 135,000 kilowatts respectively.

[0178] Table 3 Demand-Side Response Plan for Fujian Province in Summer 2022

[0179]

[0180] Example 3

[0181] Please refer to Figure 2 A terminal 1 for generating a power supply guarantee scheme includes a memory 2, a processor 3, and a computer program stored in the memory 2 and executable on the processor 3. When the processor 3 executes the computer program, it implements the various steps of a method for generating a power supply guarantee scheme according to Embodiment 1 or 2.

[0182] In summary, the present invention provides a method and terminal for generating a power supply guarantee scheme. This method acquires power demand forecast data and calculates power supply data. Subtracting the power demand forecast data from the power supply data yields power profit and loss data. Based on this data, the profitability and loss status of the power supply can be determined. If there is a power loss, a demand-side response power supply guarantee scheme is generated when the loss is less than a first preset load. When the loss is greater than or equal to the first preset load, a power supply guarantee scheme combining demand-side response and power exchange is generated. Therefore, generating a power supply guarantee scheme that considers demand-side response and power exchange can fully leverage internal adjustable loads and external power supply capabilities on the basis of the existing power supply and demand balance, ensuring a safe and reliable power supply under extreme conditions.

[0183] The above description is merely an embodiment of the present invention and does not limit the patent scope of the present invention. Any equivalent modifications made based on the content of the present invention specification and drawings, or direct or indirect applications in related technical fields, are similarly included within the patent protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method of generating an electricity security of supply scheme, characterized by, The method comprises the steps of: obtaining power demand prediction data, calculating power supply data, which is equal to power installed capacity minus power blocked capacity and power maintenance capacity, subtracting the power demand prediction data from the power supply data to obtain power profit and loss data; if power loss is obtained according to the power profit and loss data, generating a power supply guarantee scheme combining demand side response and power exchange when the power loss is less than a first preset load, and generating a power supply guarantee scheme combining demand side response and power exchange when the power profit and loss data is greater than or equal to the first preset load; the calculation of the power supply data, which is equal to the power installed capacity minus the power blocked capacity and the power maintenance capacity, specifically comprises: calculating the power installed capacity; ； ； In the formula, represents the installed capacity of the i-th type of power source in the j-th city in the t-th month, represents the installed capacity of the j-th type of power source in the t-th month, c represents the capacity of a single unit, t in and t out respectively represent the commissioning time and decommissioning time of the corresponding unit, n represents the number of cities, and j represents the type of power source; calculating the power blocked capacity; ； ； In the formula, represents the blocked capacity of the power source of type i in city j in month t, represents the blocked capacity of the power source of type j in month t, a represents the blocked month; calculating the power maintenance capacity; ； ； In the formula, represents the maintenance capacity of the power supply of type i in city j in month t, represents the maintenance capacity of the power supply of type j in month t, r represents the maintenance month; calculating the power supply data; ； In the formula, represents the power supply data of the i city in the t month, and m represents the number of power source types. the generation of the power supply guarantee scheme combining demand side response comprises: calculating the demand side response capacity of each time period; ； ； In the formula, R i,t represents the actual demand response capacity, R t represents the total actual demand response capacity in month t, r represents the contracted capacity of demand side response, a represents the response coefficient, t represents the month, i represents the city, and k represents the industry category. calculating the demand side response concentration of each region according to the demand side response capacity; ； generating a first power supply guarantee scheme combining demand side response according to the demand side response capacity and the demand side response concentration; the generation of the power supply guarantee scheme combining demand side response and power exchange comprises: generating a first power supply guarantee scheme combining demand side response according to the demand side response capacity and the demand side response concentration; calculating the power exchange data of each time period, and generating a second power supply guarantee scheme combining the first power supply guarantee scheme combining demand side response and the power exchange data.

2. The method of generating an electricity supply assurance scheme according to claim 1, wherein, the subtraction of the power demand prediction data from the power supply data to obtain the power profit and loss data comprises: calculating the power profit and loss data; ； In the formula, represents the power supply data of i city in t month, represents the power demand prediction data of i city in t month, m represents the number of power source types, R t represents the actual demand response capacity, g represents the power exchange amount.

3. A terminal for generating an electricity supply assurance scheme, comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that, the processor executes the computer program to realize the method of any one of claims 1-2.

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