Method, system, device and storage medium for predicting the impact of a tropical disturbance

Abstract

The present invention relates to a method, system, device and storage medium for predicting the impact of tropical disturbances. The method includes the following steps: determining a target sea area and obtaining historical tropical disturbance data of the target sea area; obtaining the numerical distribution of the historical tropical disturbance data, selecting the value corresponding to the characteristic point in the sea level pressure numerical distribution as the sea level pressure threshold from the numerical distribution of the historical tropical disturbance data, and selecting the value corresponding to the characteristic point in the wind speed numerical distribution as the wind speed threshold; obtaining meteorological forecast data, obtaining the pressure field data within the target sea area at a specified future moment from the meteorological forecast data, traversing the grid points that satisfy less than or equal to the sea level pressure threshold, and connecting the obtained grid points to form the tropical disturbance range area at the specified moment; obtaining the wind speed data of each grid point within the tropical disturbance range area from the meteorological forecast data, and judging the impact range of the tropical disturbance at the specified moment based on the wind speed threshold.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a method, system, device and storage medium for predicting the impact of tropical disturbances, belonging to the technical field of meteorological prediction. Background Art

[0002] A tropical disturbance is the embryonic state of a tropical cyclone, which is a group of thunderstorm clouds without obvious organization and may have the opportunity to develop into a tropical cyclone.

[0003] Currently, the main method for identifying tropical disturbances is through manual judgment. This method not only requires analysts to have professional meteorological knowledge, but also is time-consuming and laborious in the analysis process, and the analysis results may have relatively large errors. It is a difficult problem to identify tropical disturbances and analyze trends through complex manual analysis and research in a short period of time. Summary of the Invention

[0004] In order to solve the problems existing in the above-mentioned prior art, the present invention proposes a method, system, device and storage medium for predicting the impact of tropical disturbances.

[0005] The technical solution of the present invention is as follows:

[0006] On the one hand, the present invention proposes a method for predicting the impact of tropical disturbances, including the following steps:

[0007] Determine the target sea area and obtain the historical tropical disturbance data of the target sea area;

[0008] Obtain the numerical distribution of the historical tropical disturbance data, select the value corresponding to the characteristic point in the numerical distribution of the sea-level pressure as the sea-level pressure threshold, and select the value corresponding to the characteristic point in the numerical distribution of the wind speed as the wind speed threshold;

[0009] Obtain meteorological forecast data, obtain the pressure field data within the target sea area range at a future specified moment from the meteorological forecast data, traverse the grid points corresponding to the sea-level pressure values that satisfy less than or equal to the sea-level pressure threshold in the obtained pressure field data, and connect the obtained grid points to form the tropical disturbance range area at the specified moment;

[0010] Obtain the wind speed data of each grid point within the tropical disturbance range area at the specified moment from the meteorological forecast data, and judge the impact range of the tropical disturbance at the specified moment based on the wind speed threshold and the wind speed data of the obtained grid points.

[0011] As a preferred embodiment, the method of selecting the value corresponding to the characteristic point in the numerical distribution of the sea-level pressure as the sea-level pressure threshold and selecting the value corresponding to the characteristic point in the numerical distribution of the wind speed as the wind speed threshold from the numerical distribution of the historical tropical disturbance data is specifically:

[0012] Obtain historical sea-level air pressure data from historical tropical disturbance data, and analyze the Gaussian distribution of the historical sea-level air pressure data. Use the μ + 2σ endpoint of the Gaussian distribution of the historical sea-level air pressure data as the sea-level air pressure threshold;

[0013] Extract historical tropical disturbance wind force and wind circle radius data from historical tropical disturbance data, and obtain the Gaussian distribution of historical wind speeds within the wind circle. Use the μ - 2σ endpoint of the Gaussian distribution of historical wind speeds within the wind circle as the wind speed threshold;

[0014] Where μ represents the mean value and σ represents the standard deviation.

[0015] As a preferred implementation manner, the method for determining the influence range of a tropical disturbance at a specified time based on the wind speed threshold and the obtained wind speed data of grid points is specifically as follows:

[0016] Compare the obtained wind speed data of any grid point with the wind speed threshold, and perform binary processing on the image based on the comparison result. Specifically:

[0017] If the wind speed data of the grid point is greater than the threshold, set the pixel value of the corresponding grid point to black; if the wind speed data of the grid point is less than or equal to the threshold, set the pixel value of the corresponding grid point to white;

[0018] Link the grid points set to black to form a wind speed influence mask;

[0019] Obtain the minimum circumscribed circle of the wind speed influence mask, and use the coverage range of this minimum circumscribed circle as the influence range of the tropical disturbance at the specified time.

[0020] As a preferred implementation manner, the method further includes the following steps:

[0021] Obtain the terrain shp data of the specified area and the terrain shp data of the influence range of the tropical disturbance, and use the method of spatial distribution overlay analysis to determine whether there is an area intersection, so as to determine whether the predicted tropical disturbance will affect the specified area.

[0022] On the other hand, the present invention also proposes a tropical disturbance influence prediction system, including:

[0023] A historical data acquisition module, used to determine the target sea area and obtain historical tropical disturbance data of the target sea area;

[0024] An eigenvalue selection module, used to obtain the numerical distribution of historical tropical disturbance data, select the value corresponding to the characteristic point in the numerical distribution of sea-level air pressure as the sea-level air pressure threshold from the numerical distribution of historical tropical disturbance data, and select the value corresponding to the characteristic point in the numerical distribution of wind speed as the wind speed threshold;

[0025] The tropical disturbance area prediction module is used to obtain meteorological forecast data, acquire the barometric pressure field data within the target sea area at a specified future moment from the meteorological forecast data, traverse the grid points corresponding to the sea level pressure values that meet the condition of being less than or equal to the sea level pressure threshold in the obtained barometric pressure field data, and link the obtained grid points to form the tropical disturbance range area at the specified moment;

[0026] The impact prediction module is used to obtain the wind speed data of each grid point within the tropical disturbance range area at the specified moment from the meteorological forecast data, and judge the impact range of the tropical disturbance at the specified moment based on the wind speed threshold and the obtained wind speed data of the grid points.

[0027] As a preferred implementation manner, the eigenvalue selection module specifically includes:

[0028] The sea level pressure threshold selection unit is used to obtain the historical sea level pressure data from the historical tropical disturbance data, analyze the Gaussian distribution of the historical sea level pressure data, and use the μ + 2σ endpoint of the Gaussian distribution of the historical sea level pressure data as the sea level pressure threshold;

[0029] The wind speed threshold selection unit is used to extract the historical tropical disturbance wind force and wind circle radius data from the historical tropical disturbance data and obtain the Gaussian distribution of the historical wind speed within the wind circle, and use the μ - 2σ endpoint of the Gaussian distribution of the historical wind speed within the wind circle as the wind speed threshold;

[0030] Wherein, μ represents the average value, and σ represents the standard deviation.

[0031] As a preferred implementation manner, the impact prediction module includes a mask generation unit and an impact range determination unit, wherein:

[0032] The mask generation unit is used to compare the obtained wind speed data of any grid point with the wind speed threshold, and perform binary processing on the image based on the comparison result. Specifically, if the wind speed data of the grid point is greater than the threshold, the pixel value of the corresponding grid point is set to black; if the wind speed data of the grid point is less than or equal to the threshold, the pixel value of the corresponding grid point is set to white; link the grid points set to black to form a wind speed impact mask mask;

[0033] The impact range determination unit is used to obtain the minimum circumscribed circle of the wind speed impact mask mask, and use the coverage range of the minimum circumscribed circle as the impact range of the tropical disturbance at the specified moment.

[0034] As a preferred implementation manner, the system further includes a specified area impact judgment unit, which is used for:

[0035] Obtain the topographic shp data of the specified area and the topographic shp data of the scope affected by the tropical disturbance. Using the method of spatial distribution superposition analysis, determine whether there is an area intersection, so as to judge whether the predicted tropical disturbance will affect the specified area.

[0036] On the other hand, the present invention also provides an electronic device, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor. When the processor executes the program, it implements the method for predicting the impact of a tropical disturbance as described in any embodiment of the present invention.

[0037] On the other hand, the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored. When the program is executed by a processor, it implements the method for predicting the impact of a tropical disturbance as described in any embodiment of the present invention.

[0038] The present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0039] A method, system, device, and storage medium for predicting the impact of a tropical disturbance according to the present invention can automatically predict the impact brought by a future tropical disturbance based on meteorological data processing and image processing. It can automatically identify the location of the tropical disturbance, analyze the development trend of the tropical disturbance, and the possible impact on a specified area, with the characteristics of automation and high timeliness, and can prevent possible disasters in advance. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0040] Figure 1 It is a flowchart of the method according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0041] Next, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts belong to the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0042] It should be understood that the step numbers used in the text are only for convenience of description and do not limit the execution order of the steps.

[0043] It should be understood that the terms used in the specification of the present invention are only for the purpose of describing specific embodiments and are not intended to limit the present invention. As used in the specification of the present invention and the appended claims, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise, the singular forms "a", "an", and "the" are intended to include the plural forms.

[0044] The terms "comprising" and "including" indicate the presence of the described features, wholes, steps, operations, elements, and / or components, but do not exclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, wholes, steps, operations, elements, components, and / or their combinations.

[0045] The term "and / or" refers to any combination and all possible combinations of one or more of the associated listed items, and includes such combinations.

[0046] Example 1:

[0047] See Figure 1 , based on the technical problems existing in the background art, this example proposes an impact prediction method for tropical disturbances, including the following steps:

[0048] S100. Determine the target sea area, and obtain the historical tropical disturbance data of the target sea area. For example, obtain the historical tropical disturbance data within the range of the Northwest Pacific Ocean for calculation and analysis.

[0049] S200. Conduct threshold analysis, obtain the numerical distribution of the historical tropical disturbance data, obtain the numerical distribution of the historical sea level pressure from the numerical distribution of the historical tropical disturbance data, and select the sea level pressure value corresponding to the characteristic point from the numerical distribution of the historical sea level pressure as the sea level pressure threshold thresholdSlp;

[0050] Obtain the historical wind speed numerical distribution from the numerical distribution of the historical tropical disturbance data, and select the wind speed value corresponding to the characteristic point from the historical wind speed numerical distribution as the wind speed threshold thresholdWind.

[0051] S300. Obtain meteorological forecast data, and obtain the pressure field data slpData within the range of the Northwest Pacific Ocean at the future ti moment from the meteorological forecast data. First, judge whether the minimum pressure data minSlp within the range of the Northwest Pacific Ocean at the ti moment is less than or equal to the sea level pressure threshold thresholdSlp: minSlp <= thresholdSlp; if so, traverse to obtain the grid points corresponding to the sea level pressure values that satisfy being less than or equal to the sea level pressure threshold in the pressure field data within the range of the Northwest Pacific Ocean at the ti moment (the judgment method is the same as the above formula). If satisfied, extract relevant information, including the longitude and latitude, pressure value, and time of the grid point, link the obtained grid points to form the tropical disturbance range area at the ti moment, and at the same time use the geometric center of the tropical disturbance range area as the position of the tropical disturbance center point; otherwise, take the ti + 1 moment and continue to repeat the above steps.

[0052] S400. Obtain the wind field data corresponding to the identified tropical disturbance at the corresponding moment from the meteorological forecast data, obtain the wind speed data of each grid point within the range area of the tropical disturbance at the corresponding moment, and combine the wind speed threshold thresholdWind and the obtained wind speed data of the grid points to determine the influence range of the tropical disturbance at the specified moment.

[0053] As a preferred implementation manner of this embodiment, in step S200, the method of selecting the value corresponding to the feature point in the sea level pressure numerical distribution as the sea level pressure threshold and selecting the value corresponding to the feature point in the wind speed numerical distribution as the wind speed threshold from the numerical distribution of historical tropical disturbance data is specifically as follows:

[0054] S201. Obtain the historical sea level pressure data from the historical tropical disturbance data, and analyze the Gaussian distribution of the historical sea level pressure data. Take the μ + 2σ endpoint of the Gaussian distribution of the historical sea level pressure data as the sea level pressure threshold; where μ represents the average value and σ represents the standard deviation.

[0055] S202. Similarly, extract the historical tropical disturbance wind force and wind circle radius data from the historical tropical disturbance data, and obtain the Gaussian distribution of the historical wind speed within the wind circle. Take the μ - 2σ endpoint of the Gaussian distribution of the historical wind speed within the wind circle as the wind speed threshold; where μ represents the average value and σ represents the standard deviation.

[0056] As a preferred implementation manner of this embodiment, in step S400, the method of determining the influence range of the tropical disturbance at the specified moment based on the wind speed threshold and the obtained wind speed data of the grid points is specifically as follows:

[0057] S401. Compare the obtained wind speed data of the grid points within any tropical disturbance range area with the wind speed threshold, perform binary processing on the image based on the comparison result to generate a mask. A mask is a processing operation on an image that covers part of the image area and only retains the image of the specific area of interest. The main steps are to set the data greater than a certain threshold to 1 and other data to 0, thereby realizing the process of image binarization; the specific steps of this embodiment are as follows:

[0058] If the wind speed data of the grid point is greater than the threshold, set the pixel value of the corresponding grid point to black. If the wind speed data of the grid point is less than or equal to the threshold, set the pixel value of the corresponding grid point to white;

[0059] Link the grid points set to black to form a wind speed influence mask, and obtain the wind speed influence mask data;

[0060] S402. Based on the wind speed - affected mask data, using the image contour processing method, obtain the minimum circumscribed circle of the wind speed - affected mask, and use the coverage range of this minimum circumscribed circle as the influence range of the tropical disturbance at a specified moment.

[0061] As a preferred implementation manner of this embodiment, the method further includes the following steps:

[0062] S500. According to the Chinese administrative division shp data and the tropical disturbance influence range shp data, using spatial distribution overlay analysis to determine whether there is an area intersection, so as to determine whether the predicted tropical disturbance will affect the land area of our country. Analyze the areas affected by the tropical disturbance based on information such as wind speed, air pressure, and time, and propose relevant defense measure suggestions.

[0063] Based on the above embodiments, the present invention automatically predicts the impacts brought by future tropical disturbances based on meteorological data processing and image processing methods. It can automatically identify the positions of tropical disturbances, analyze the development trends of tropical disturbances, and the possible impacts on specified areas. It can conduct 24 - hour continuous automatic monitoring, with higher timeliness compared to manual analysis, and can prevent possible disasters in advance.

[0064] Embodiment 2:

[0065] This embodiment proposes an impact prediction system for tropical disturbances, including:

[0066] A historical data acquisition module, used to determine the target sea area and obtain the historical tropical disturbance data of the target sea area; this module is used to implement the function of step S100 in Embodiment 1, and will not be elaborated here;

[0067] An eigenvalue selection module, used to obtain the numerical distribution of the historical tropical disturbance data, select the value corresponding to the characteristic point in the numerical distribution of the sea - level air pressure in the historical tropical disturbance data as the sea - level air pressure threshold, and select the value corresponding to the characteristic point in the numerical distribution of the wind speed as the wind speed threshold; this module is used to implement the function of step S200 in Embodiment 1, and will not be elaborated here;

[0068] A tropical disturbance area prediction module, used to obtain meteorological forecast data, obtain the air pressure field data within the target sea area range at a future specified moment from the meteorological forecast data, traverse the grid points corresponding to the sea - level air pressure values that satisfy less than or equal to the sea - level air pressure threshold in the obtained air pressure field data, and connect the obtained grid points to form the tropical disturbance range area at the specified moment; this module is used to implement the function of step S300 in Embodiment 1, and will not be elaborated here;

[0069] An impact prediction module, which is used to obtain the wind speed data of each grid point within the tropical disturbance range area at a specified moment from meteorological forecast data, and determine the impact range of the tropical disturbance at the specified moment based on the wind speed threshold and the obtained wind speed data of the grid points; this module is used to implement the function of step S400 in Embodiment 1, which will not be elaborated here.

[0070] As a preferred implementation manner of this embodiment, the eigenvalue selection module specifically includes:

[0071] A sea level pressure threshold selection unit, which is used to obtain historical sea level pressure data from historical tropical disturbance data, analyze the Gaussian distribution of the historical sea level pressure data, and use the μ + 2σ endpoint of the Gaussian distribution of the historical sea level pressure data as the sea level pressure threshold;

[0072] A wind speed threshold selection unit, which is used to extract historical tropical disturbance wind force and wind circle radius data from historical tropical disturbance data and obtain the Gaussian distribution of historical wind speed within the wind circle, and use the μ - 2σ endpoint of the Gaussian distribution of historical wind speed within the wind circle as the wind speed threshold;

[0073] Among them, μ represents the average value, and σ represents the standard deviation.

[0074] As a preferred implementation manner of this embodiment, the impact prediction module includes a mask generation unit and an impact range determination unit, where:

[0075] The mask generation unit is used to compare the obtained wind speed data of any grid point with the wind speed threshold, and perform binary processing on the image based on the comparison result. Specifically, if the wind speed data of the grid point is greater than the threshold, the pixel value of the corresponding grid point is set to black; if the wind speed data of the grid point is less than or equal to the threshold, the pixel value of the corresponding grid point is set to white; the grid points set to black are linked together to form a wind speed impact mask;

[0076] The impact range determination unit is used to obtain the minimum circumscribed circle of the wind speed impact mask, and use the coverage range of this minimum circumscribed circle as the impact range of the tropical disturbance at the specified moment.

[0077] As a preferred implementation manner of this embodiment, the system further includes a specified area impact judgment unit, which is used to:

[0078] Obtain the terrain shp data of the specified area and the terrain shp data of the range affected by the tropical disturbance, and use the method of spatial distribution overlay analysis to judge whether there is a surface intersection, so as to judge whether the predicted tropical disturbance will affect the specified area.

[0079] Embodiment 3:

[0080] This embodiment provides an electronic device, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor. When the processor executes the program, it implements the method for predicting the impact of tropical disturbances as described in any embodiment of the present invention.

[0081] Embodiment 4:

[0082] This embodiment provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored. When the program is executed by a processor, it implements the method for predicting the impact of tropical disturbances as described in any embodiment of the present invention.

[0083] In the embodiments of the present application, "at least one" means one or more, and "a plurality" means two or more. "And / or" describes the association relationship of associated objects and indicates that three relationships may exist. For example, A and / or B may represent the cases of A existing alone, A and B existing simultaneously, and B existing alone. Here, A and B may be singular or plural. The character " / " generally represents an "or" relationship between the associated objects before and after. "At least one of the following" and its similar expressions refer to any combination of these items, including any combination of single items or plural items. For example, at least one of a, b, and c may represent: a, b, c, a and b, a and c, b and c, or a and b and c, where a, b, and c may be single or multiple.

[0084] Those of ordinary skill in the art can realize that the units and algorithm steps described in the embodiments disclosed herein can be implemented by a combination of electronic hardware, computer software, and electronic hardware. Whether these functions are executed in a hardware or software manner depends on the specific application and design constraints of the technical solution. Professional technicians can use different methods to implement the described functions for each specific application, but such implementation should not be considered to exceed the scope of the present application.

[0085] Those skilled in the art can clearly understand that for the convenience and brevity of description, the specific working processes of the systems, devices, and units described above can refer to the corresponding processes in the foregoing method embodiments and will not be elaborated herein.

[0086] In several embodiments provided by the present application, if any function is implemented in the form of a software functional unit and sold or used as an independent product, it can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of the present application, in essence, or the part that contributes to the prior art, or a part of this technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product. This computer software product is stored in a storage medium and includes several instructions for causing a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to execute all or part of the steps of the methods described in various embodiments of the present application. The aforementioned storage medium includes: various media that can store program codes, such as USB flash drives, mobile hard disks, read-only memories (ROM for short), random access memories (RAM for short), magnetic disks, or optical discs.

[0087] The above are only the embodiments of the present invention, and thus do not limit the patent scope of the present invention. Any equivalent structural or equivalent process transformation made by using the specification and drawings of the present invention, or directly or indirectly applied in other related technical fields, shall be equally included in the patent protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the impact of a tropical disturbance, characterized in that, Including the following steps: Determine the target sea area and obtain the historical tropical disturbance data of the target sea area; Obtain the numerical distribution of the historical tropical disturbance data, and select the value corresponding to the characteristic point in the numerical distribution of the sea level pressure as the sea level pressure threshold from the numerical distribution of the historical tropical disturbance data, and select the value corresponding to the characteristic point in the numerical distribution of the wind speed as the wind speed threshold; Obtain the meteorological forecast data, obtain the pressure field data within the target sea area at a specified future time from the meteorological forecast data, traverse the grid points corresponding to the sea level pressure values that satisfy less than or equal to the sea level pressure threshold in the obtained pressure field data, and connect the obtained grid points to form the tropical disturbance range area at the specified time; Obtain the wind speed data of each grid point within the tropical disturbance range area at the specified time from the meteorological forecast data, and judge the influence range of the tropical disturbance at the specified time based on the wind speed threshold and the wind speed data of the obtained grid points; Among them, the method for judging the influence range of the tropical disturbance at the specified time based on the wind speed threshold and the wind speed data of the obtained grid points is specifically as follows: Compare the wind speed data of any obtained grid point with the wind speed threshold, and perform binary processing on the image based on the comparison result. Specifically: If the wind speed data of the grid point is greater than the threshold, set the pixel value of the corresponding grid point to black. If the wind speed data of the grid point is less than or equal to the threshold, set the pixel value of the corresponding grid point to white; Connect the grid points set to black to form a wind speed influence mask; Obtain the minimum circumscribed circle of the wind speed influence mask, and use the coverage range of the minimum circumscribed circle as the influence range of the tropical disturbance at the specified time.

2. The impact prediction method of a tropical disturbance according to claim 1, characterized in that The method for selecting the value corresponding to the characteristic point in the numerical distribution of the sea level pressure as the sea level pressure threshold from the numerical distribution of the historical tropical disturbance data, and selecting the value corresponding to the characteristic point in the numerical distribution of the wind speed as the wind speed threshold is specifically as follows: Obtain the historical sea level pressure data from the historical tropical disturbance data, and analyze the Gaussian distribution of the historical sea level pressure data, and use the μ + 2σ endpoint of the Gaussian distribution of the historical sea level pressure data as the sea level pressure threshold; Extract the historical tropical disturbance wind force and wind circle radius data from the historical tropical disturbance data, and obtain the Gaussian distribution of the historical wind speed within the wind circle, and use the μ - 2σ endpoint of the Gaussian distribution of the historical wind speed within the wind circle as the wind speed threshold; Among them, μ represents the average value, and σ represents the standard deviation.

3. The method for predicting the impact of a tropical disturbance according to claim 1, characterized in that, This method further includes the following steps: Obtain the topographic shp data of the specified area and the topographic shp data of the influence range of the tropical disturbance, and use the method of spatial distribution superposition analysis to judge whether there is a surface intersection, so as to judge whether the predicted tropical disturbance will affect the specified area.

4. A prediction system for the impact of a tropical disturbance, characterized in that, Including: A historical data acquisition module for determining the target sea area and obtaining the historical tropical disturbance data of the target sea area; A characteristic value selection module for obtaining the numerical distribution of the historical tropical disturbance data, and selecting the value corresponding to the characteristic point in the numerical distribution of the sea level pressure as the sea level pressure threshold from the numerical distribution of the historical tropical disturbance data, and selecting the value corresponding to the characteristic point in the numerical distribution of the wind speed as the wind speed threshold; The tropical disturbance area prediction module is used to obtain meteorological forecast data, acquire the barometric pressure field data within the target sea area range at a specified future moment from the meteorological forecast data, traverse the grid points corresponding to the sea level pressure values that meet the condition of being less than or equal to the sea level pressure threshold in the obtained barometric pressure field data, and link the obtained grid points to form the tropical disturbance range area at the specified moment; The impact prediction module is used to obtain the wind speed data of each grid point within the tropical disturbance range area at a specified moment from the meteorological forecast data, and judge the impact range of the tropical disturbance at the specified moment based on the wind speed threshold and the wind speed data of the obtained grid points; The impact prediction module includes a mask generation unit and an impact range determination unit, where: The mask generation unit is used to compare the wind speed data of any obtained grid point with the wind speed threshold, and perform binary processing on the image based on the comparison result. Specifically, if the wind speed data of the grid point is greater than the threshold, the pixel value of the corresponding grid point is set to black; if the wind speed data of the grid point is less than or equal to the threshold, the pixel value of the corresponding grid point is set to white; link the grid points set to black to form a wind speed impact mask; The impact range determination unit is used to obtain the minimum circumscribed circle of the wind speed impact mask, and use the coverage range of the minimum circumscribed circle as the impact range of the tropical disturbance at the specified moment.

5. The impact prediction system for a tropical disturbance according to claim 4, wherein The eigenvalue selection module specifically includes: The sea level pressure threshold selection unit is used to obtain the historical sea level pressure data from the historical tropical disturbance data, and analyze the Gaussian distribution of the historical sea level pressure data, and use the μ + 2σ endpoint of the Gaussian distribution of the historical sea level pressure data as the sea level pressure threshold; The wind speed threshold selection unit is used to extract the historical tropical disturbance wind force and wind circle radius data from the historical tropical disturbance data and obtain the Gaussian distribution of the historical wind speed within the wind circle, and use the μ - 2σ endpoint of the Gaussian distribution of the historical wind speed within the wind circle as the wind speed threshold; Where, μ represents the average value, and σ represents the standard deviation.

6. The impact prediction system of a tropical disturbance according to claim 4, characterized in that, The system further includes a specified area impact judgment unit, which is used for: Obtain the terrain shp data of the specified area and the terrain shp data of the range affected by the tropical disturbance, and use the method of spatial distribution overlay analysis to judge whether there is a surface intersection, so as to judge whether the predicted tropical disturbance will affect the specified area.

7. An electronic device, comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that, When the processor executes the program, it implements the tropical disturbance impact prediction method according to any one of claims 1 to 3.

8. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that, When the program is executed by the processor, it implements the tropical disturbance impact prediction method according to any one of claims 1 to 3.

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