A method and device for verifying and analyzing a large-scale thunderstorm and gale event
By combining satellite, radar and ground station multi-source observation data, a large-scale thunderstorm and strong wind data set was constructed, which solved the shortcomings in monitoring and early warning of large-scale thunderstorm and strong wind events in the existing technology, and achieved accurate analysis and forecast of wind disaster areas, propagation paths and movement speeds.
Patent Information
- Application Number
- CN202311071783.8
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Patents(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- Filing Date
- 2023-08-24
- Publication Date
- 2025-07-25
- Estimated Expiration
- 2043-08-24
AI Technical Summary
The existing technology lacks refined monitoring and early warning methods for large-scale thunderstorms and strong wind events, and cannot accurately identify the wind disaster area, propagation direction and movement speed, resulting in low forecast accuracy.
Combining satellite, radar and ground station multi-source observation data, combined with high-resolution convection resolution numerical forecast mode, a large-scale thunderstorm and strong wind data set is constructed. Through quality control and interpolation analysis, the thunderstorm structure, wind intensity and spatial distribution of large-scale thunderstorm events are identified, the wind intensity is classified, and the wind disaster intensity is visually displayed.
It realizes accurate monitoring and early warning of large-scale thunderstorms and strong wind events, and can objectively verify and analyze the wind disaster areas, propagation paths and movement speeds, improving the accuracy and timeliness of forecasts.
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Figure CN117113680B_ABST
Abstract
Description
Technical Field
[0001] The invention relates to the field of disaster prevention and reduction in severe convective thunderstorm weather, and in particular to a method and device for inspecting and analyzing large-scale thunderstorm and gale events. Background Art
[0002] Large-scale thunderstorm and gale events refer to events of gust disasters with wide spatial distribution and meeting specific conditions caused by long-life, strong convective storm systems. They are also one of the most important severe convective weather in my country's warm season. The conditions that need to be met for large-scale thunderstorm and gale events generally include that the main axis length of the wind disaster area exceeds 400km, and the convective scale gust wind speed is strong, exceeding 26m / s, accompanied by strong and narrow straight-line gale, thunderstorms, short-term heavy rainfall and hail, etc., which are often extremely destructive and often cause serious damage to people's lives and property. However, given that their occurrence is often sudden, localized and gusty, it is still challenging to accurately judge the intensity and location of large-scale thunderstorm and gale events and to provide timely warnings in operational weather forecasts.
[0003] However, the existing identification and analysis methods for large-scale thunderstorms and strong winds are not perfect enough. There is a lack of objective description of the large-scale thunderstorm and strong wind disaster areas and the direction of wind disaster propagation, movement speed, etc. There is a lack of classification of the intensity of large-scale thunderstorms and strong winds, and there is no comprehensive identification, analysis and forecasting system, resulting in low forecast accuracy.
[0004] Therefore, in order to solve the limitations of traditional thunderstorm analysis, it is urgently necessary to comprehensively use multi-source observation data such as satellites, radars, and ground stations, combined with high-resolution convective-resolvable numerical forecast models, to conduct detailed inspections and analyses of large-scale thunderstorm events corresponding to the development of storms, the distribution and intensity of strong winds on the ground, and to identify the moving direction and propagation speed of large-scale thunderstorm disaster areas, so as to provide a better basis for large-scale thunderstorm forecasts, warnings, disaster prevention and mitigation. Summary of the invention
[0005] Purpose of the invention: The present invention provides a method and device for inspecting and analyzing large-scale thunderstorm and gale events, which overcomes the problem of insufficient refinement in existing large-scale thunderstorm and gale monitoring and early warning, and provides better services for meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation.
[0006] Technical solution: The inspection and analysis method of a large-scale thunderstorm and gale event described in the present invention specifically includes:
[0007] (1) Obtain historical reanalysis data, high temporal and spatial resolution reanalysis data, satellite observations, dual-polarization radar observations, ground-based automatic weather station observations, and high-resolution simulation results of convective-scale numerical prediction models to construct a large-scale thunderstorm and gale dataset;
[0008] (2) Perform quality control on the dual-polarization radar observation and ground automatic weather station observation data, and interpolate and analyze them onto the model grid;
[0009] (3) Determine the identification criteria for large-scale thunderstorm gales; combine multi-source observations to test and identify large-scale thunderstorm gale events; including testing the thunderstorm structure, gale wind intensity, and spatial distribution characteristics of large-scale thunderstorm gales;
[0010] (4) Classify the intensity of large-scale thunderstorm gale events according to the ground gale area range and gale disaster wind intensity;
[0011] (5) Combine observations and high-resolution numerical forecast results to visually display the relevant variables of large-scale thunderstorm gale events.
[0012] Further, the high spatiotemporal resolution reanalysis data described in step (1) includes the geopotential height, relative humidity, specific humidity, temperature, and wind field at each pressure level, the 10m height wind, 2m height dew point, 2m height temperature, surface pressure, soil temperature and humidity, and surface roughness at the ground height level.
[0013] Further, the ground automatic weather station observation data described in step (1) includes temperature, pressure, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and pressure.
[0014] Further, the implementation process of step (2) is as follows:
[0015] Perform quality control on the reflectivity and radial wind of the dual-polarization radar observation data, including velocity de-aliasing and clutter removal; interpolate and analyze the reflectivity of the dual-polarization radar observation data onto the model grid after quality control; based on the Cressman interpolation method, use an appropriate influence radius to interpolate the ground automatic weather station observation data onto the model forecast grid.
[0016] Further, the identification criteria for large-scale thunderstorm gales described in step (3) need to simultaneously meet the following conditions:
[0017] The regional wind disaster reports are intensive, with at least 3 gust reports exceeding 26m / s; the time interval between two consecutive wind disaster reports is less than 3 hours, the mesoscale storm system causing the wind disaster is continuous in time and space, and the main axis length of the wind disaster area is greater than 400km.
[0018] Further, the implementation process of testing and identifying large-scale thunderstorm gale events by combining multi-source observations described in step (3) is as follows:
[0019] Compare the observed storm system structure, radar composite reflectivity intensity, and surface meteorological elements, especially the intensity and spatial distribution characteristics of strong wind, and objectively and quantitatively examine the intensity and spatial distribution characteristics of large-scale thunderstorm gale forecasts by using skill scores within a certain neighborhood for different wind speed intensity levels.
[0020] First, define different large-scale thunderstorm gale intensity thresholds and convert the thunderstorm gale intensity field into 0 / 1 values. Then, within a disc-shaped neighborhood with a certain radius range, examine the spatial distribution and intensity forecasting ability of large-scale thunderstorm gales predicted by the model. The specific calculation formula of FSS is as follows:
[0021]
[0022] Among them, FBS is the fractional brier score, defined as:
[0023]
[0024] Among them, N is the number of grid points within the calculation neighborhood, P F(i) and P o(i) are the proportions of the numerical weather prediction model and observations exceeding the gale intensity level threshold within the i-th calculation neighborhood respectively. The final value of FSS ranges between 0 and 1. 1 represents that within this neighborhood, the coverage ratio of the model prediction and observations above this gale intensity threshold is exactly the same as the observations, while 0 represents that the large-scale thunderstorm gale has no forecasting ability within this neighborhood.
[0025] Furthermore, the implementation process of step (4) is as follows:
[0026] Classify the intensity of large-scale thunderstorm gale events according to the ground gale area range and the intensity of gale disasters. For thunderstorm gale events with a main axis of the gale area reaching 400 km and gusts exceeding 26 m / s reported 3 times, it is defined as a general large-scale thunderstorm gale event. For large-scale thunderstorm gale events with a main axis of the large-scale thunderstorm gale area exceeding 500 km and gusts exceeding 26 m / s reported more than 5 times, it is defined as a strong large-scale thunderstorm gale event. For thunderstorm gale events with a main axis of the gale area exceeding 500 km and gusts exceeding 26 m / s reported more than 10 times, it is defined as an extremely strong large-scale gale event.
[0027] Furthermore, the implementation process of step (5) is as follows:
[0028] Based on the output results of the high-resolution numerical model, visualize the following variable fields related to large-scale thunderstorm gales:
[0029] The time-averaged horizontal wind field at the bottom layer of the model within TT minutes is:
[0030]
[0031] Among them, \(u\) is the wind speed in the \(x\)-direction of the model forecast, and \(v\) is the wind speed in the \(y\)-direction. Then, there can be \(24\times60 / TT\) hourly near-surface wind field horizontal distribution products within the concerned area in one day;
[0032] The daily cumulative maximum horizontal wind speed wind field at the bottom layer of the model with an interval of \(TT\):
[0033] V max =\(\max(V TT ) ii
[0034] where \(ii\) corresponds to the wind fields of \(24\times60 / TT\) hours;
[0035] The movement trajectory of the large-scale thunderstorm gale disaster area, including the propagation speed \(V transport and the propagation direction \(Dir trans , \(V transport is the moving speed of the center of the large-scale thunderstorm gale area. Among them, the center of the large-scale thunderstorm gale area is the average position of the wind speed points where the horizontal full wind speed exceeds 18 m / s, that is:
[0036] LOC central_lat =\(\text{avg}(lat grid )\) for the grid with \(V TT > 18\text{ m / s}
[0037] LOC central_lon =\(\text{avg}(lon grid )\) for the grid with \(V TT > 18\text{ m / s}
[0038] where the point \((LOC central_lat , LOC central_lon )\) is the instantaneous center position of the large-scale thunderstorm gale; its connection line indicates the propagation trajectory of the large-scale thunderstorm gale and the path of the strong wind disaster;
[0039] The moving speed of the large-scale thunderstorm gale center is defined as:
[0040] V transport =\(\text{Dis} max_windecntral / TT\times60
[0041] where \(\text{Dis} max_windcentral is the moving distance of the large-scale thunderstorm gale center.
[0042] Furthermore, converting the thunderstorm gale intensity field into 0 / 1 values specifically means setting the value where the horizontal full wind speed exceeds 18 m / s to 1, and otherwise setting it to 0.
[0043] Based on the same inventive concept, a device of the present invention includes a memory and a processor, wherein:
[0044] The memory is used for storing a computer program that can run on the processor;
[0045] The processor is used for executing the steps of the inspection and analysis method of the large-scale thunderstorm and gale event as described above when running the computer program.
[0046] Beneficial effects: Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: By using the cloud top temperature observed by high-resolution satellites, the present invention can detect, identify and give early warnings for larger-scale thunderstorm and gale storms, including those at sea; By tracking the trajectories of the strong wind centers of large-scale thunderstorms and gales, the present invention can objectively inspect and analyze the regions, propagation paths and moving speeds of large-scale thunderstorm and gale disasters, and make more accurate predictions on their intensities and the scopes of wind disaster impacts. Description of the Drawings
[0047] Figure 1 is a flowchart of the inspection and analysis method of the large-scale thunderstorm and gale event;
[0048] Figure 2 is the blackbody brightness temperature map of satellite observations of the large-scale thunderstorm and gale event at 1130 UTC on April 19, 2016 in the inspection and analysis of the present invention;
[0049] Figure 3 is the horizontal distribution of the maximum wind speed and the moving trajectory map of the strong wind center of the large-scale thunderstorm and gale event at 00-18 UTC on April 19, 2016 in the inspection and analysis of the present invention;
[0050] Figure 4 is the propagation speed map of the maximum wind speed center of the large-scale thunderstorm and gale event at 00-18 UTC on April 19, 2016 in the inspection and analysis of the present invention. Detailed Embodiments
[0051] The present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the drawings.
[0052] As Figure 1As shown in the figure, the present invention provides a method for verifying and analyzing large-scale thunderstorm gale events. First, historical reanalysis data, satellite data, dual-polarization radar observations, ground automatic weather station observations, and high-resolution simulation results of convective-scale numerical prediction models are obtained to construct a verification and analysis dataset for large-scale thunderstorm gale events. The variables of dual-polarization radar observations and ground station observations are quality-controlled and interpolated onto the model grid. According to the identification criteria for large-scale thunderstorm gale events and in combination with multi-source observations, they are verified and identified, including verifying their thunderstorm structures, especially the characteristics of the gale wind force intensity and spatial distribution. According to the ground gale area range and the gale disaster wind force intensity, the intensity of large-scale thunderstorm gale events is classified. Finally, in combination with observations and high-resolution numerical prediction results, the relevant variables of large-scale thunderstorm gale events, including the large-scale gale area, the intensity of large-scale thunderstorm gale disasters, the moving path of the strong wind center, the moving speed, etc., are visually displayed. The specific steps are as follows:
[0053] Step 1: Obtain a large-scale thunderstorm gale dataset.
[0054] The specific variables include geopotential height, relative humidity, specific humidity, temperature, wind field at each pressure level, 10m height wind, 2m height dew point, 2m height temperature, surface pressure, soil temperature and humidity, surface roughness and other variables at the ground height layer, cloud top temperature data retrieved from FY satellite observations, radar composite reflectivity observed by dual-polarization radar, and elements such as temperature, pressure, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and pressure observed by ground automatic stations. Based on the model output data simulated by the convective-scale numerical prediction model, a historical dataset of large-scale thunderstorm gale storms is established.
[0055] Step 2: Quality control and interpolation analysis of observational data.
[0056] Quality control is carried out on the variables of dual-polarization radar observations, such as reflectivity, radial wind, etc., including velocity de-aliasing, removing ground clutter, etc. Using the pycwr toolkit, the reflectivity observed by the dual-polarization radar is interpolated and analyzed onto the model grid after quality control; based on the Cressman interpolation method and using an appropriate influence radius, the wind field, temperature field, pressure field, and humidity field observed by ground automatic stations are interpolated onto the model prediction grid.
[0057] Step 3: Verification and analysis of large-scale thunderstorm gales.
[0058] The identification criteria for large-scale thunderstorm gales include: dense regional wind disaster reports, at least 3 gust reports exceeding 26m / s, the time interval between two consecutive wind disaster reports being less than 3 hours, the mesoscale storm system causing the wind disaster being continuous in time and space, and the major axis length of the wind disaster area (ground wind speed exceeding 18m / s) being greater than 400km.
[0059] Based on the above large-scale strong wind event recognition criteria, combined with the prediction results of radar, ground stations, satellite observations, and high-resolution numerical prediction models, the large-scale strong wind events are inspected and identified. By comparing the observed storm system structure, radar composite reflectivity intensity, and surface meteorological elements, especially the intensity and spatial distribution characteristics of the strong wind, the accuracy of the model prediction results is verified. Calculate the skill scores (Frictional Skill Scores, FSS) within a certain neighborhood, such as taking neighborhoods with radii of 10 km, 20 km, and 30 km respectively, to objectively and quantitatively inspect the intensity and spatial distribution characteristics of the large-scale thunderstorm strong wind forecasts. Calculate the corresponding skill scores, and the specific formula is:
[0060]
[0061] where FBS is the fractional brier score within the neighborhood, defined as:
[0062]
[0063] where N is the number of grid points within the calculated neighborhood, P F(i) and P o(i) are the proportions of the numerical prediction model and the observations exceeding the strong wind intensity level threshold within the i-th calculated neighborhood respectively. The final value of FSS ranges between 0 and 1. A value of 1 means that within this neighborhood, the coverage ratio of the model prediction and the observations above this strong wind intensity threshold is exactly the same as the observations, while a value of 0 means that the large-scale thunderstorm strong wind has no prediction ability within this neighborhood. The smaller the FBS, the closer the prediction is to the observations.
[0064] Step 4: Inspect and analyze the intensity classification and horizontal distribution range of the large-scale thunderstorm strong wind, the wind force intensity of the strong wind disaster, the propagation path trajectory and moving speed of the large-scale thunderstorm strong wind.
[0065] Classify the intensity of the large-scale strong wind events according to the ground strong wind area range and the wind force intensity of the strong wind disaster. For large-scale thunderstorm strong wind events where the main axis of the strong wind area is greater than 400 km and the number of reports of strong gusts (horizontal full wind speed exceeding 26 m / s) is 3 times, it is defined as a general large-scale thunderstorm strong wind event; for large-scale thunderstorm strong wind events where the main axis of the large-scale strong wind area exceeds 500 km and the number of reports of gusts exceeding 26 m / s exceeds 5 times, it is defined as a large-scale thunderstorm strong wind event. For large-scale thunderstorm strong wind events where the main axis of the large-scale strong wind area exceeds 500 km and the number of reports of gusts exceeding 26 m / s exceeds 8 times, it is defined as an extremely large-scale thunderstorm strong wind event.
[0066] Table 1 Classification of the intensity levels of large-scale thunderstorm strong wind events
[0067]
[0068]
[0069] Step 5: Visualize the following large-scale variables related to severe thunderstorm gales based on the output results of the high-resolution numerical model.
[0070] The time-averaged horizontal wind field at the bottom layer of the model within TT minutes is:
[0071]
[0072] where u is the wind speed in the x-direction predicted by the model, and v is the wind speed in the y-direction. Then, there are 24 * 60 / TT hourly products of the horizontal distribution of the near-surface wind field within the concerned area in a day.
[0073] Combining the observation and high-resolution numerical simulation results, calculate the daily cumulative maximum horizontal wind speed wind field at the bottom layer of the model at intervals of TT based on the high-resolution convective-scale numerical prediction results:
[0074] V max = max(V TT ) ii
[0075] where ii corresponds to the wind fields at 24 * 60 / TT hourly times.
[0076] The moving trajectory of the large-scale severe thunderstorm gale disaster area, including the propagation speed V transport and the propagation direction Dir trans , V transport is the moving speed of the center of the large-scale severe thunderstorm gale area. The center of the large-scale severe thunderstorm gale area is the average position of the wind speed points where the horizontal total wind speed exceeds 18 m / s, that is:
[0077] LOC central_lat = avg(lat grid ) for grid with V TT > 18 m / s
[0078] LOC central_lon = avg(lon grid ) for grid with V TT > 18 m / s
[0079] where the point (LOC central_lat , LOC central_lom ) is the instantaneous center position of the large-scale severe thunderstorm gale; its connection indicates the propagation trajectory of the large-scale severe thunderstorm gale and the path of the strong wind disaster;
[0080] The moving speed of the center of the large-scale severe thunderstorm gale is defined as:
[0081] Vtransport = Dis max_windecentral / TT × 60
[0082] Wherein, Dis max_windcentral is the moving distance of the center of the large-scale thunderstorm gale, and it is a test and analysis method for large-scale thunderstorm gale events with a time interval of TT minutes.
[0083] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a device, including a memory and a processor. Among them, the memory is used to store a computer program that can run on the processor; the processor is used to execute the steps of the above-mentioned test and analysis method for large-scale thunderstorm gale events when running the computer program.
[0084] In this embodiment, the large-scale thunderstorm gale event in Yunnan region on April 19, 2016 is selected as an example for test and analysis. During this process, in the evening of that day, thunderstorm gales occurred in many places in central and southern Yunnan, and the maximum wind speed exceeded 28 m / s. Figure 2 is the satellite cloud top brightness temperature map at 0900 UTC during this process. It can be seen that this large-scale thunderstorm gale event is mainly affected by the strong convective squall line system. The squall line system has a long life history and high intensity in Yunnan, and the affected area is mainly in central Yunnan. Figure 3 and Figure 4 are respectively the horizontal distribution of the maximum wind speed and the moving track of the strong wind center of the large-scale thunderstorm gale event from 00 - 18 UTC (Universal Time) on April 19, 2016, and the propagation speed map of the maximum wind speed center of the large-scale thunderstorm gale event. It can be intuitively indicated that this large-scale thunderstorm gale event mainly propagates from northwest to southeast and sweeps across central and southeastern Yunnan, and its moving speed is relatively fast, especially the fastest between 1100 - 1200 UTC, reaching 29 m / s. Therefore, the test and analysis method of the present invention for large-scale thunderstorm gale events can effectively and objectively test the area, moving speed, and propagation direction of the ground wind disaster in large-scale thunderstorm gale events.
Claims
1. A method for testing and analyzing large-scale thunderstorm and gale events, characterized in that, It includes the following steps: (1) Obtain historical reanalysis data, reanalysis data with high spatio-temporal resolution, satellite observations, dual-polarization radar observations, ground-based automatic weather station observations, and high-resolution simulation results of convective-scale numerical prediction models to construct a large-scale dataset of severe thunderstorm winds; (2) Perform quality control on the dual-polarization radar observations and ground-based automatic weather station observations and interpolate and analyze them onto the model grid; (3) Determine the identification criteria for large-scale severe thunderstorm winds; combine multi-source observations to test and identify large-scale severe thunderstorm wind events; including testing the thunderstorm structure, wind force intensity, and spatial distribution characteristics of large-scale severe thunderstorm winds; (4) Classify the intensity of large-scale severe thunderstorm wind events according to the ground wind area range and the wind disaster force intensity; (5) Combine observations and high-resolution numerical prediction results to visually display the relevant variables of large-scale severe thunderstorm wind events; The implementation process of step (5) is as follows: According to the output results of the high-resolution numerical model, visually display the following variable fields related to large-scale severe thunderstorm winds: Underlying mode The time-averaged horizontal wind field within minutes is as follows: ; Among them, u is the x directional wind speed for model prediction, v is y directional wind speed. Then, there can be horizontal distribution products of the near-surface wind field at 24 * 60 / TT time steps within the concerned area in one day. Taking as the time interval, the underlying maximum horizontal wind speed wind field of the daily cumulative mode: V max = max(V TT ) ii ; Among them ii is the wind field corresponding to 24 * 60 / TT time steps; The moving trajectory of the large-scale thunderstorm and gale disaster area, including the propagation speed and the propagation direction , is the time interval The moving speed of the center of the large-scale thunderstorm and gale area, where the center of the large-scale thunderstorm and gale area is the average position of the wind speed points with a horizontal full wind speed exceeding 18 m / s, that is: ; Among them, the point (LOC central_lat , LOC central_lon ) is the instantaneous center position of the large-scale thunderstorm gale; its connection line indicates the propagation track of the large-scale thunderstorm gale and the path of the severe wind disaster; The moving speed of the center of large-scale severe thunderstorm winds is defined as: V transport = Dis max_windcentral / TT × 60; Among them, Dis max_windcentral is the moving distance of the center of the large-scale thunderstorm gale.
2. The inspection and analysis method for a large-scale thunderstorm and gale event according to claim 1, characterized in that, The reanalysis data with high spatio-temporal resolution described in step (1) includes geopotential height, relative humidity, specific humidity, temperature, and wind field at each pressure level, 10m height wind, 2m height dew point, 2m height temperature, surface pressure, soil temperature and humidity, and surface roughness at the ground height level.
3. The inspection and analysis method for a large-scale thunderstorm and gale event according to claim 1, characterized in that, The ground-based automatic weather station observation data described in step (1) includes temperature, pressure, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and pressure.
4. The inspection and analysis method for a large-scale thunderstorm and gale event according to claim 1, wherein The implementation process of step (2) is as follows: Perform quality control on the reflectivity and radial wind of the dual-polarization radar observations, including velocity de-aliasing and removal of ground clutter; interpolate and analyze the reflectivity of the dual-polarization radar observations onto the model grid after quality control; based on the Cressman interpolation method, use an appropriate influence radius to interpolate the ground-based automatic weather station observation data onto the model forecast grid.
5. The inspection and analysis method for a large-scale thunderstorm and gale event according to claim 1, characterized in that The identification criteria for large-scale severe thunderstorm winds described in step (3) need to simultaneously meet the following conditions: The regional wind disaster reports are intensive, with at least 3 gust reports exceeding 26 m / s; the time interval between two consecutive wind disaster reports is less than 3 hours, the mesoscale storm system causing the wind disaster is continuous in time and space, and the main axis length of the wind disaster area is greater than 400 km.
6. The inspection and analysis method for a large-scale thunderstorm and gale event according to claim 1, wherein The implementation process of combining multi-source observations to test and identify large-scale severe thunderstorm wind events described in step (3) is as follows: Compare the observed storm system structure, radar composite reflectivity intensity, and surface meteorological elements, especially the wind force intensity and spatial distribution characteristics of the strong winds. Classify by different wind speed intensity levels, and use the skill score within a certain neighborhood to objectively and quantitatively test the intensity and spatial distribution characteristics of the large-scale severe thunderstorm wind forecast; First, define different large-scale severe thunderstorm wind intensity thresholds and convert the severe thunderstorm wind intensity field into 0 / 1 values; then, in a disk-shaped neighborhood within a certain radius range, test the spatial distribution and intensity forecasting ability of the large-scale severe thunderstorm wind forecast by the model; the specific calculation formula of FSS is as follows: ; Among them, FBS is the fractional brier score, defined as: ; Among them, N To calculate the number of grid points in the neighborhood, and are the proportions of the numerical weather prediction model and observations exceeding the gale intensity level threshold in the i th calculation neighborhood respectively. The final value of FSS ranges between 0 and 1. A value of 1 indicates that in this neighborhood, the coverage ratio of the model prediction and observations above this gale intensity threshold is exactly the same as the observations, while a value of 0 indicates that the large-scale severe thunderstorm gales have no prediction ability in this neighborhood; FBS The smaller it is, the closer the prediction is to the observations.
7. The inspection and analysis method for a large-scale thunderstorm and gale event according to claim 1, characterized in that The implementation process of step (4) is as follows: Classify the intensity of large-scale thunderstorm gale events according to the range of ground gale areas and the wind force intensity of gale disasters; for thunderstorm gale events with the main axis of the gale area reaching 400 km and the gust exceeding 26 m / s reported 3 times, it is defined as a general large-scale thunderstorm gale event; for large-scale thunderstorm gale events with the main axis of the large-scale thunderstorm gale area exceeding 500 km and the gust exceeding 26 m / s reported more than 5 times, it is defined as a strong large-scale thunderstorm gale event; for thunderstorm gale events with the main axis of the gale area exceeding 500 km and the gust exceeding 26 m / s reported more than 10 times, it is defined as an extremely strong large-scale gale event.
8. The inspection and analysis method for a large-scale thunderstorm and gale event according to claim 6, characterized in that Converting the thunderstorm gale intensity field to 0 / 1 values specifically means that the horizontal full wind speed exceeding 18 m / s is set to 1, otherwise it is set to 0.
9. A device, characterized in that, Including a memory and a processor, where: The memory is used to store a computer program that can run on the processor; The processor is used to execute the steps of the inspection and analysis method for large-scale thunderstorm gale events as described in any one of claims 1 to 8 when running the computer program.
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