Risk assessment method, device, equipment and storage medium based on engineering projects

Abstract

A risk assessment method, device, equipment and storage medium based on engineering projects, relating to the technical field of risk assessment. In this method, multiple estimated risks of the project are obtained, and based on a preset method, multiple first occurrence probabilities and multiple first impact levels of the first estimated risk are obtained, and multiple second occurrence probabilities and multiple second impact levels of the second estimated risk are obtained; the first estimated risk and the second estimated risk are combined to obtain a risk group; the occurrence impact rate of the risk group is determined according to the multiple first occurrence probabilities and multiple first impact levels, and the multiple second occurrence probabilities and multiple second impact levels; it is determined whether the occurrence impact rate is less than or equal to the preset occurrence threshold; when the occurrence impact rate is less than or equal to the preset occurrence threshold, it is confirmed that there is a correlation between the first estimated risk and the second estimated risk in the risk group. Implement the technical solution provided by the present application, analyze the correlation between risks, and obtain a more accurate risk estimation result.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of risk assessment, and in particular to a method, device, equipment and storage medium for risk assessment based on an engineering project. Background Art

[0002] An engineering project is a project that uses engineering construction as a carrier. It is a one-time engineering construction task that is managed. It takes buildings or structures as target outputs, requires payment of a certain fee, follows certain procedures, is completed within a certain period of time, and must meet quality requirements.

[0003] During the implementation of engineering projects, there are many unpredictable and uncontrollable events that may lead to the failure of engineering projects. In order to evaluate the risks that may have an adverse impact on engineering projects and ensure the success of engineering projects, it is a necessary step to conduct risk assessment of engineering projects before the implementation of the engineering projects. The current risk assessment method usually conducts continuous assessment throughout the project cycle, but this risk assessment method only focuses on the impact of a single risk on the project process when determining that the project process is in a specific risk state. When there are multiple interrelated risks, the existing risk assessment method lacks the ability to analyze the correlation between risks, which affects the risk assessment results of engineering projects.

[0004] Therefore, there is an urgent need for a risk assessment method, device, equipment and storage medium based on engineering projects that can solve the above-mentioned technical problems. Summary of the invention

[0005] The present application provides a risk assessment method, device, equipment and storage medium based on engineering projects. The method comprehensively considers the probability of occurrence and impact of multiple estimated risks, makes judgments based on the occurrence impact rate and the preset occurrence threshold, and then analyzes the correlation between risks, thereby obtaining a more accurate risk estimation result.

[0006] In a first aspect, the present application provides a risk assessment method based on an engineering project, which is applied to a server, and the method includes: obtaining multiple estimated risks of the project engineering, the multiple estimated risks including a first estimated risk and a second estimated risk; based on a preset method, obtaining multiple first occurrence probabilities and multiple first impact levels of the first estimated risk, and obtaining multiple second occurrence probabilities and multiple second impact levels of the second estimated risk; combining the first estimated risk and the second estimated risk to obtain a risk group; determining an occurrence impact rate of the risk group based on the multiple first occurrence probabilities and multiple first impact levels, and the multiple second occurrence probabilities and multiple second impact levels; judging whether the occurrence impact rate is less than or equal to a preset occurrence threshold; when the occurrence impact rate is less than or equal to the preset occurrence threshold, confirming that there is a correlation between the first estimated risk and the second estimated risk in the risk group.

[0007] By adopting the above technical solution, multiple estimated risks of the project engineering can be obtained, and various risks that may occur in the project can be comprehensively considered. The probability of occurrence and impact of each estimated risk can be obtained, and the importance of each risk can be quantitatively evaluated, so as to better understand the possibility and impact of each risk, and combine different risks for comprehensive analysis. Consider the situation where multiple estimated risks occur at the same time. When the occurrence impact rate is less than or equal to the preset occurrence threshold, it is confirmed that there is mutual influence between the estimated risks, so as to obtain more accurate risk estimation results.

[0008] Optionally, obtain a preset progress of the project, where the preset progress is the implementation progress of the project at the first moment; the first moment is the moment when the project is initially recorded; input the preset progress into a database for analysis to obtain multiple estimated risks, wherein the database is constructed from historical data and expert data.

[0009] By adopting the above technical solution, the risk identification and assessment of project engineering can be achieved based on the analysis of the preset progress and the database constructed with historical data and expert data, thereby improving the accuracy of project engineering risk management.

[0010] Optionally, obtain the risk type of the estimated risk; according to the risk type, obtain the corresponding risk estimation method, which includes any one of an expert analysis method, a historical data analysis method, an industry data analysis method, and a scheme comparison analysis method; based on the risk estimation method, quantify the probability of the estimated risk to obtain the probability of the estimated risk; simulate the project engineering to obtain simulation results; based on the simulation results, determine the impact of the estimated risk.

[0011] By adopting the above technical solution, the risk type of the estimated risk is identified, and the corresponding risk estimation method is selected according to the risk type. The probability of risk occurrence is obtained based on the risk estimation method, and the degree of risk impact is obtained based on simulation analysis, thereby achieving a comprehensive analysis and evaluation of the estimated risk.

[0012] Optionally, obtain the implementation progress of the project at a second moment, where the second moment is the moment in the implementation process of the project; perform a risk estimation method on the implementation progress to obtain a risk value; when the risk value is greater than or equal to a preset risk threshold, confirm that the risk in the implementation progress is in an abnormal state, and it is necessary to adjust the risk estimation method for the project.

[0013] By adopting the above technical solution, the implementation progress of the project engineering is obtained, the risks in the construction process are identified, and the risk level in the construction process is judged. When the risk level in the construction process is greater than the preset risk threshold, the risk estimation method for the project engineering is confirmed to be adjusted, and a new risk estimation method needs to be selected to estimate the risk of the project engineering.

[0014] Optionally, obtain a first probability of occurrence and a first impact degree of the first estimated risk; divide the risk level according to the first probability of occurrence and the first impact degree, and the risk level includes any one of low risk, medium risk and high risk; when the first estimated risk is at high risk, preferentially display the first estimated risk corresponding to the high risk.

[0015] By adopting the above technical solution, risk levels are divided according to the probability of occurrence and the degree of impact of risks. Based on the risk level division, the importance of risks can be better identified and distinguished. When there are high risk levels among multiple estimated risks, the estimated risks corresponding to the high risks are displayed first, which helps to quickly identify and pay attention to potential high-risk events and improve the effectiveness of risk management.

[0016] Optionally, obtain the risk level; match the corresponding risk strategy according to the risk level, and the risk strategy includes any one or more strategies of risk avoidance, risk transfer, risk reduction, risk control and risk increase.

[0017] By adopting the above technical solution, corresponding risk strategies are matched according to risk levels, and different risk levels correspond to different risk strategies, thereby achieving refined risk management.

[0018] Optionally, the multiple estimated risks include any one of technical risk, financial risk, schedule risk, management risk, market risk, legal and compliance risk, health and safety risk, natural disaster risk, and environmental risk.

[0019] By adopting the above technical solutions, a comprehensive and integrated risk assessment of engineering projects can be carried out, which helps to fully understand the various potential risks faced by engineering projects and provide a comprehensive basis for risk management.

[0020] In a second aspect of the present application, a risk assessment device based on an engineering project is provided, the device is a server, and the server includes an acquisition unit, a processing unit and a confirmation unit; the acquisition unit acquires multiple estimated risks of the project engineering, the multiple estimated risks include a first estimated risk and a second estimated risk; the processing unit acquires multiple first occurrence probabilities and multiple first impact levels of the first estimated risk, and acquires multiple second occurrence probabilities and multiple second impact levels of the second estimated risk based on a preset method; the first estimated risk and the second estimated risk are combined to obtain a risk group; according to the multiple first occurrence probabilities and multiple first impact levels, and the multiple second occurrence probabilities and multiple second impact levels, an occurrence impact rate of the risk group is determined; it is determined whether the occurrence impact rate is less than or equal to a preset occurrence threshold; the confirmation unit confirms that there is a correlation between the first estimated risk and the second estimated risk in the risk group when the occurrence impact rate is less than or equal to the preset occurrence threshold.

[0021] Optionally, the acquisition unit is used to obtain a preset progress of the project, where the preset progress is the implementation progress of the project at the first moment; the first moment is the moment when the project is initially recorded; the processing unit is used to input the preset progress into a database for analysis to obtain multiple estimated risks, wherein the database is constructed from historical data and expert data.

[0022] Optionally, the acquisition unit is used to obtain the risk type of the estimated risk; the processing unit is used to obtain the corresponding risk estimation method according to the risk type, and the risk estimation method includes any one of an expert analysis method, a historical data analysis method, an industry data analysis method, and a scheme comparison analysis method; the processing unit is used to quantitatively estimate the probability of the estimated risk based on the risk estimation method to obtain the probability of the estimated risk; simulate the project engineering to obtain the simulation results; and determine the impact of the estimated risk based on the simulation results.

[0023] Optionally, the acquisition unit is used to obtain the implementation progress of the project at a second moment, where the second moment is the moment in the implementation process of the project; the processing unit is used to perform a risk estimation method on the implementation progress to obtain a risk value; when the risk value is greater than or equal to a preset risk threshold, it is confirmed that the risk in the implementation progress is in an abnormal state, and the risk estimation method for the project needs to be adjusted.

[0024] Optionally, the acquisition unit is used to obtain a first occurrence probability and a first impact degree of a first estimated risk; the processing unit is used to classify the risk level according to the first occurrence probability and the first impact degree, and the risk level includes any one of low risk, medium risk and high risk; when the first estimated risk is at high risk, the first estimated risk corresponding to the high risk is displayed preferentially.

[0025] Optionally, the acquisition unit is used to obtain the risk level; the processing unit is used to match the corresponding risk strategy according to the risk level, and the risk strategy includes any one or more strategies of risk avoidance, risk transfer, risk reduction, risk control and risk increase.

[0026] Optionally, the multiple estimated risks include any one of technical risk, financial risk, schedule risk, management risk, market risk, legal and compliance risk, health and safety risk, natural disaster risk, and environmental risk.

[0027] In a third aspect of the present application, an electronic device is provided, which includes a processor, a memory, a user interface and a network interface, the memory is used to store instructions, the user interface and the network interface are used to communicate with other devices, and the processor is used to execute the instructions stored in the memory, so that an electronic device executes any one of the methods described above in the present application.

[0028] In a fourth aspect of the present application, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, wherein the computer-readable storage medium stores instructions, and when the instructions are executed, any one of the above methods of the present application is executed.

[0029] In summary, one or more technical solutions provided in the embodiments of the present application have at least the following technical effects or advantages:

[0030] 1. The importance of each risk can be quantitatively assessed to better understand the possibility and impact of each risk, and different risks can be combined for comprehensive analysis. Consider the situation where the estimated risks occur at the same time. When the impact rate is less than or equal to the preset occurrence threshold, it is confirmed that there is a mutual impact between the estimated risks, so as to obtain a more accurate risk estimation result.

[0031] 2. Based on the analysis of the preset progress and the database built with historical data and expert data, the risk identification and assessment of the project can be realized, thus improving the accuracy of risk management of the project.

[0032] 3. Identify the risk type of the estimated risk, select the corresponding risk estimation method according to the risk type, use the risk estimation method to obtain the probability of risk occurrence, and then obtain the risk impact based on simulation analysis to achieve a comprehensive analysis and evaluation of the estimated risk.

[0033] 4. Obtain the implementation progress of the project, identify the risks in the construction process, and determine the risk level in the construction process. When the risk level in the construction process is greater than or equal to the preset risk threshold, confirm the adjustment of the risk estimation method for the project and select a new risk estimation method to estimate the risk of the project. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0034] Figure 1 It is a first flow chart of a risk assessment method based on an engineering project provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0035] Figure 2 It is a scenario diagram of a risk assessment method based on an engineering project provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0036] Figure 3 It is a second flow chart of the risk assessment method based on engineering projects provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0037] Figure 4 It is a structural schematic diagram of a risk assessment device based on an engineering project provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0038] Figure 5 It is a structural schematic diagram of an electronic device disclosed in an embodiment of the present application.

[0039] Explanation of the reference numerals: 401, acquisition unit; 402, processing unit; 403, confirmation unit; 500, electronic device; 501, processor; 502, communication bus; 503, user interface; 504, network interface; 505, memory. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0040] In order to enable technicians in this field to better understand the technical solutions in this specification, the technical solutions in the embodiments of this specification will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of this specification. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of this application, not all of the embodiments.

[0041] In the description of the embodiments of the present application, words such as "for example" or "for example" are used to indicate examples, illustrations or explanations. Any embodiment or design described as "for example" or "for example" in the embodiments of the present application should not be interpreted as being more preferred or more advantageous than other embodiments or designs. Specifically, the use of words such as "for example" or "for example" is intended to present related concepts in a specific way.

[0042] In the description of the embodiments of the present application, the meaning of the term "multiple" refers to two or more. For example, multiple systems refer to two or more systems, and multiple screen terminals refer to two or more screen terminals. In addition, the terms "first" and "second" are used for descriptive purposes only and cannot be understood as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly indicating the indicated technical features. Thus, the features defined as "first" and "second" may explicitly or implicitly include one or more of the features. The terms "include", "comprise", "have" and their variations all mean "including but not limited to", unless otherwise specifically emphasized.

[0043] An engineering project is a project that uses engineering construction as a carrier. It is a one-time engineering construction task that is managed. It takes buildings or structures as target outputs, requires payment of a certain fee, follows certain procedures, is completed within a certain period of time, and must meet quality requirements.

[0044] During the implementation of engineering projects, there are many unpredictable and uncontrollable events that may lead to the failure of engineering projects. In order to evaluate the risks that may have an adverse impact on engineering projects and ensure the success of engineering projects, it is necessary to conduct risk assessment of engineering projects before the implementation of engineering projects. The current risk assessment method usually conducts continuous assessment throughout the project cycle, but this risk assessment method only focuses on the impact of a single risk on the project process when determining that the project process is in a specific risk state. When there are multiple interrelated risks, the existing risk assessment method lacks the ability to analyze the correlation between risks, which affects the risk assessment results of engineering projects.

[0045] Therefore, how to change the existing risk assessment method that lacks the ability to analyze the correlation between risks and obtain a more accurate risk assessment result is an urgent problem to be solved. The embodiment of the present application provides a risk assessment method based on an engineering project, which is applied to a server. The server of the present application can be a platform for serving engineering projects. Figure 1 is a first flow chart of a risk assessment method based on an engineering project provided in an embodiment of the present application, with reference to Figure 1 The method includes the following steps S101-S106.

[0046] S101: Acquire multiple estimated risks of a project, where the multiple estimated risks include a first estimated risk and a second estimated risk.

[0047] In the above S101, the server obtains the preset progress of the project engineering, and the preset progress includes any one of the preparatory stage, design stage, procurement and construction preparation stage, construction stage, and completion and acceptance stage. The preset progress is the implementation progress of the project engineering at the first moment. At this time, the first moment can be represented as the moment of the preparatory stage of the project engineering. The preset progress is input into the database for analysis to obtain multiple estimated risks corresponding to the project engineering. Before the preset progress is input into the database for analysis, a database needs to be constructed. The database can be constructed based on historical data and expert data. The historical data includes various different project engineering situations at different progress, and the situation of different engineering projects is recorded; the expert data includes expert judgment and subjective evaluation. Common project risks in project engineering, that is, multiple estimated risks include any one of technical risks, financial risks, schedule risks, management risks, market risks, legal and compliance risks, health and safety risks, natural disaster risks, and environmental risks. Next, the various estimated risks are explained one by one.

[0048] Technical risks: Engineering projects involving new or complex technologies may face risks in terms of technical feasibility, technical difficulty, and technology promotion. Financial risks: These include budget overruns, inaccurate cost estimates, and funding shortages, which may result in the project not being able to proceed as planned or be completed on time. Schedule risks: These include risks related to the project duration, which may result in project delays due to schedule delays, insufficient resources, construction problems, etc. Management risks: These include poor project management, poor communication, and poor decision-making, which may result in inefficient project execution or failure to achieve project goals. Market risks: For commercial projects, factors such as changes in market demand and the emergence of competitors may affect the commercial prospects of the project. Legal and compliance risks: These include issues related to contract performance and compliance with laws and regulations, which may result in legal disputes or violations and increase project risks. Health and safety risks: These include issues related to worker safety and the construction environment, which may result in accidents or construction quality problems. Natural disaster risks: These include natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and storms, which may cause losses and delays to the project. Environmental risks: These include issues related to environmental protection and sustainability, which may result in environmental pollution and legal liability.

[0049] S102: Based on a preset method, obtain multiple first occurrence probabilities and multiple first impact levels of the first estimated risk, and obtain multiple second occurrence probabilities and multiple second impact levels of the second estimated risk.

[0050] In the above S102, after the estimated risk is determined according to the preset schedule of the engineering project, the risk type corresponding to the estimated risk is obtained, and the risk type includes market type, supply chain type, environment type, quality type, legal type, schedule type, funding type and technical type. The corresponding risk estimation method is obtained according to the risk type. Different risk types correspond to different risk estimation methods. The risk estimation method includes any one of the expert analysis method, historical data analysis method, industry data analysis method and scheme comparison analysis method. The first estimated risk and the second estimated risk are any two estimated risks among the multiple estimated risks.

[0051] The default method is to choose any of the following methods to calculate the probability and impact of the estimated risk: Expert analysis method: Invite experienced professionals or experts in related fields to participate in risk estimation; experts can evaluate the probability and impact of risks based on their own experience and knowledge. Historical data analysis method: Review historical data of the same or similar projects, including past project experience and risk occurrence; obtain statistical information from them to help estimate the probability and impact of similar risks. Industry data analysis method: Consult relevant industry literature and reliable data sources to understand the probability and impact of the same or similar risks in similar projects. Scheme comparison analysis method: For different schemes or decisions, comparisons can be made when estimating risks; compare the risks that may arise under different schemes, and evaluate their probability and impact.

[0052] For example, a correspondence can be established between legal types and patent analysis methods, that is, when the risk type is a legal type, the risk estimation method can be set to an expert analysis method; a correspondence can be established between supply chain types, environmental types, and progress types and historical data analysis methods, that is, when the risk type is any one of the environmental type, supply chain type, and progress type, the risk estimation method can be set to a historical data analysis method; a correspondence can be established between market types, quality types, and capital types and industry data analysis methods, that is, when the risk type is any one of the market type, quality type, and capital type, the risk estimation method can be set to an industry data analysis method; a correspondence can also be established between technology types and solution counterpart analysis methods, that is, when the risk type is a technology type, the risk estimation method can be set to a solution comparison analysis method.

[0053] After determining the corresponding risk estimation method according to the risk type, the probability of occurrence of the estimated risk can be quantitatively estimated. At this time, the quantitative estimation can be analyzed using historical data. When the estimated risk exists in a historical engineering project, whether the estimated risk occurs during the implementation of the engineering project can be determined by obtaining data from multiple historical process projects, thereby obtaining the probability of each estimated risk occurring in the engineering project.

[0054] For example, when there are 100 engineering project data in the historical data, when the first estimated risk is financial risk, the engineering projects with financial risks among the 100 engineering projects are obtained, and when 15 of them have financial risks, the probability of financial risk is 15%, that is, the estimated probability of the first occurrence of risk in the engineering project is 15%. The probability of occurrence of the engineering project can also be determined by other methods, which can be selected based on the actual situation.

[0055] The project engineering can also be simulated, that is, the progress of the current project engineering is simulated, and the project engineering is continued to be implemented according to the progress of the project engineering until the project implementation is completed and the simulation results are obtained. The simulation results are the problems and impacts that arise in the project engineering during the simulation process. According to the simulation results, the influence of the estimated risks is determined.

[0056] For example, when the first estimated risk is a financial risk, during the implementation of the project, due to budget overruns, the project cannot proceed as planned, affecting the delivery date of the project and delaying the subsequent work of the project. The impact level can include three levels: severe, intermediate, and simple. If the project cannot proceed as planned, the first impact level of the first estimated risk is severe.

[0057] In addition to using the above methods to obtain the estimated risk probability and impact, probability analysis can also be performed through statistical methods, Monte Carlo simulation and other technologies. Monte Carlo simulation: Monte Carlo simulation is a commonly used probability analysis method that simulates the probability and impact of risk events through random sampling. The specific method to obtain the estimated risk probability and impact can be selected based on actual conditions.

[0058] S103: Combine the first estimated risk and the second estimated risk to obtain a risk group.

[0059] In the above S103, after the estimated risks are obtained, two estimated risks may be randomly combined, that is, different estimated risks may be combined to obtain the distribution of project results between different risk groups, and then analyze the correlation between various risks.

[0060] For example, when the first estimated risk is set to technical risk and when the second estimated risk is set to market risk, the technical risk and the market risk are combined to obtain a risk group, which includes the technical risk and the market risk.

[0061] S104: Determine the occurrence impact rate of the risk group according to the multiple first occurrence probabilities and the multiple first impact degrees, and the multiple second occurrence probabilities and the multiple second impact degrees.

[0062] In the above S104, the corresponding occurrence probability and impact degree of the first estimated risk, i.e., the first occurrence probability and the first impact degree, are obtained respectively; the corresponding occurrence probability and the impact degree of the second estimated risk, i.e., the second occurrence probability and the second impact degree, are obtained. According to the occurrence probability and the impact degree of the first estimated risk and the second estimated risk, the occurrence impact rate of the risk group is obtained, and the occurrence impact rate indicates the probability that the risk corresponding to the risk group occurs in the project engineering, and the impact of the risk group on the engineering project accounts for the entire engineering project.

[0063] In addition, after using Monte Carlo simulation to obtain the first occurrence probability and the first impact level of the first estimated risk, the Monte Carlo simulation is then used to obtain the second occurrence probability and the second impact level of the second estimated risk. In order to determine whether the first estimated risk is associated with the second estimated risk, the traditional judgment of the project engineering is based on a single estimated risk to evaluate the project engineering. However, when two estimated risks are associated, the impact of the superposition of the two estimated risks on the engineering project is greater than the impact of a single estimated risk on the engineering project. Therefore, it is necessary to determine whether the two estimated risks are associated. When the two estimated risks are associated, the two estimated risks are combined to obtain a risk group, and the impact of the risk group on the engineering project needs to be evaluated.

[0064] Therefore, it is necessary to calculate the correlation between the first estimated risk and the second estimated risk, and calculate the difference between the two estimated risks. The difference is determined based on the ratio of the first estimated risk to the second estimated risk. The first probability of occurrence of the first estimated risk is 0.7, and the first impact level is 0.3. The second probability of occurrence of the second estimated risk is 0.3, and the second impact level is 0.7. The difference between the first estimated risk and the second estimated risk is obtained. At this time, the difference is the occurrence impact rate of the risk group. The smaller the incidence rate of the risk group, the greater the probability of the two estimated risks occurring at the same time, and the more it proves that there is a correlation between the two estimated risks.

[0065] S105: Determine whether the occurrence impact rate is less than or equal to a preset occurrence threshold.

[0066] In the above S105, the preset occurrence threshold is the impact value of the normal risk group on the engineering project. The preset occurrence threshold can be set based on different project engineering, so the preset occurrence threshold can be set to a smaller value, which is not limited here.

[0067] S106: When the occurrence impact rate is less than or equal to the preset occurrence threshold, confirm that the first estimated risk and the second estimated risk in the risk group are associated.

[0068] In the above S106, when the occurrence impact rate is less than or equal to the preset occurrence threshold, it is confirmed that the first estimated risk and the second estimated risk in the risk group are correlated, and the correlation means that multiple estimated risks may occur at the same time and have a serious impact on the project. The correlation also means that due to a certain estimated risk, multiple estimated risks are subsequently triggered at the same time. When the first estimated risk and the second estimated risk in the risk group are correlated, an overall risk assessment is required based on the current first estimated risk and the second estimated risk.

[0069] In addition, when the occurrence impact rate is greater than the preset occurrence threshold, it is confirmed that there is no correlation between the first estimated risk and the second estimated risk in the risk group, and then it is determined whether there is any correlation between the estimated risks in other risk groups.

[0070] Further, after determining that the first estimated risk in the risk group is associated with the second estimated risk, the risk level of the estimated risk is determined based on the probability of occurrence and impact of the current estimated risk. Taking the calculation of the risk level of the first estimated risk as an example, the first probability of occurrence and the first impact of the first estimated risk are obtained; the risk level is divided according to the first probability of occurrence and the first impact, and the risk level includes low risk, medium risk and high risk. Different risk levels correspond to different ranges, such as Figure 2 As shown, with the estimated risk probability as the horizontal axis and the estimated risk impact as the vertical axis, when the first estimated risk probability is 16% and the first estimated risk impact is simple, Figure 2 When the probability of occurrence is between 0-33%, the impact is in the simple range, and the box corresponding to the dotted line is defined as low risk; when the probability of occurrence is between 34%-66%, the impact is in the medium range, and the box corresponding to the middle dotted line is defined as medium risk; when the probability of occurrence is between 67%-100%, the impact is in the severe range, and the box corresponding to the dotted line is defined as high risk. The circle in the figure represents the first estimated risk, so the risk level of the first estimated risk is low risk.

[0071] When there are multiple estimated risks in a project, the multiple estimated risks are divided into risk levels in turn. When there is a high risk among the multiple estimated risks, the estimated risk corresponding to the high risk is displayed first. Colors can be used to mark the risk levels of different risks. For example, when there is an estimated risk within a high risk, the high risk can be set to red. When there is an estimated risk within a medium risk, the medium risk can be set to green. When there is an estimated risk within a low risk, the low risk value can be yellow. The color can be set based on the actual situation.

[0072] After determining the risk level corresponding to the first estimated risk, corresponding risk management strategies and countermeasures need to be formulated according to the risk level. Different risk levels correspond to different risk strategies. Risk levels include low risk, medium risk and high risk. Risk strategies include risk avoidance, risk transfer, risk reduction, risk control and risk increase. You can set low risk to risk acceptance; medium risk to risk avoidance; high risk to risk transfer and risk reduction. When the first estimated risk is low risk, the risk acceptance strategy is used to manage the first estimated risk.

[0073] Risk avoidance is to completely avoid the occurrence of risks through preventive measures, including adjusting project plans, modifying designs, using reliable technologies or equipment, and complying with relevant regulations and standards. The key to risk avoidance is to identify and assess potential risks in advance during project planning and implementation, and take appropriate measures to eliminate or reduce risks.

[0074] Risk transfer is a strategy to reduce the risk you bear by transferring the risk to other parties. The ways of risk transfer include purchasing insurance, signing contracts that clearly define the responsibility and risk sharing clauses, and outsourcing. By cooperating with other relevant parties and transferring the risk responsibility to the other party, you can reduce the risk level of your own risk.

[0075] Risk mitigation is to take measures to reduce the probability of risk or reduce the extent of loss caused by risk. Specific measures include strengthening monitoring and management, strengthening training and education, developing emergency plans, and backing up important data. The impact of risks can be mitigated by improving the resilience and risk resistance of the project.

[0076] Risk acceptance is a strategy of actively choosing to take risks when it is impossible to avoid, transfer or mitigate them, because the probability of these risks is low or the impact of the risks is relatively controllable. In the case of accepting risks, a risk response plan needs to be prepared to deal with possible risk events and reduce the impact on the project.

[0077] In a possible implementation, when conducting risk assessment on a project, since risk assessment is an ongoing process, it needs to be monitored and updated regularly. As the project develops and the environment changes, the risk situation may change, so it is necessary to adjust the risk estimation method for the project in a timely manner. Figure 3 As shown, the method includes steps S301 to S303.

[0078] S301: Obtaining the implementation progress of the project at a second moment, where the second moment is a moment in the implementation process of the project.

[0079] In the above S301, after the project is implemented, the implementation progress of the project needs to be obtained at a preset interval, and the preset interval can be set according to the cycle of the historical project. The second moment includes the moment corresponding to any one of the construction stage and the completion and acceptance stage.

[0080] S302: Perform a risk estimation method on the implementation progress to obtain a risk value.

[0081] In the above S302, after obtaining the current implementation progress of the project, a risk estimation method is performed according to the implementation progress to obtain the risk value corresponding to the current project. The risk array can be used to evaluate the size and severity of the risk, so as to determine whether the risk estimation method needs to be adjusted according to the risk array.

[0082] For example, when the implementation progress of the project is in the construction stage, risk estimation is performed on various data of the project in the construction stage to obtain the risk value.

[0083] S303: When the risk value is greater than or equal to the preset risk threshold, it is confirmed that the risk is in an abnormal state in the implementation progress, and the risk estimation method for the engineering project needs to be adjusted.

[0084] In the above S303, it is determined whether the risk value is greater than or equal to the preset risk threshold. When the risk value is greater than or equal to the preset risk threshold, it can be confirmed that there is an abnormal risk in the implementation progress. That is, before the project is implemented, the risk estimation method will be used to estimate the risk of the project, and the risk value of the project at different stages will be obtained. At this time, the risk value is expressed as a preset risk threshold. The preset risk threshold can be set based on the stage of the project, and the risk threshold corresponding to different stages is different. It is confirmed that the method for risk estimation of the project is incorrect, and the method for risk estimation of the project needs to be adjusted.

[0085] For example, the first time the historical data analysis method is used for a project, the implementation progress is the construction stage, and the risk estimation method is used for various data in the construction stage to obtain the risk value. The risk value of the risk estimation for the construction stage using the historical data analysis method is obtained, that is, the preset risk threshold. When the risk array is greater than or equal to the preset risk threshold, it is confirmed that the risk estimation method used for the project is incorrect, that is, the risk level of the current project is much higher than the predicted risk level, and other risk estimation methods need to be re-selected to estimate the risk of the project, so as to reduce the occurrence of safety accidents caused by the actual risk level of the project being much higher than the predicted risk.

[0086] The present application also provides a risk assessment device based on an engineering project. Figure 4is a schematic diagram of a risk assessment device based on an engineering project provided in an embodiment of the present application, with reference to Figure 4 The server includes an acquisition unit 401, a processing unit 402 and a confirmation unit 403.

[0087] The acquisition unit 401 acquires a plurality of estimated risks of a project, wherein the plurality of estimated risks include a first estimated risk and a second estimated risk.

[0088] Processing unit 402, based on a preset method, obtains multiple first occurrence probabilities and multiple first impact degrees of a first estimated risk, and obtains multiple second occurrence probabilities and multiple second impact degrees of a second estimated risk; combines the first estimated risk and the second estimated risk to obtain a risk group; determines the occurrence impact rate of the risk group based on the multiple first occurrence probabilities and multiple first impact degrees, and the multiple second occurrence probabilities and multiple second impact degrees; and determines whether the occurrence impact rate is less than or equal to a preset occurrence threshold.

[0089] The confirmation unit 403 confirms that there is a correlation between the first estimated risk and the second estimated risk in the risk group when the occurrence impact rate is less than or equal to a preset occurrence threshold.

[0090] In one possible implementation, the acquisition unit 401 is used to acquire a preset progress of the project engineering, where the preset progress is the implementation progress of the project engineering at the first moment; the first moment is the moment when the engineering project is initially recorded; the processing unit 402 is used to input the preset progress into a database for analysis to obtain multiple estimated risks, wherein the database is constructed from historical data and expert data.

[0091] In a possible implementation, the acquisition unit 401 is used to obtain the risk type of the estimated risk; the processing unit is used to obtain the corresponding risk estimation method according to the risk type, and the risk estimation method includes any one of an expert analysis method, a historical data analysis method, an industry data analysis method, and a scheme comparison analysis method; the processing unit 402 is used to quantitatively estimate the probability of the estimated risk based on the risk estimation method to obtain the probability of the estimated risk; simulate the project engineering to obtain the simulation results; and determine the impact of the estimated risk based on the simulation results.

[0092] In a possible implementation, the acquisition unit 401 is used to obtain the implementation progress of the project at a second moment, where the second moment is the moment in the implementation process of the project; the processing unit 402 is used to perform a risk estimation method on the implementation progress to obtain a risk value; when the risk value is greater than or equal to a preset risk threshold, it is confirmed that the risk in the implementation progress is in an abnormal state, and the risk estimation method for the project needs to be adjusted.

[0093] In a possible implementation, the acquisition unit 401 is used to obtain a first occurrence probability and a first impact degree of a first estimated risk; the processing unit 402 is used to classify the risk level according to the first occurrence probability and the first impact degree, and the risk level includes any one of low risk, medium risk and high risk; when the first estimated risk is at high risk, the first estimated risk corresponding to the high risk is displayed preferentially.

[0094] In a possible implementation, the acquisition unit 401 is used to obtain the risk level; the processing unit 402 is used to match the corresponding risk strategy according to the risk level, and the risk strategy includes any one or more strategies of risk avoidance, risk transfer, risk mitigation, risk control and risk increase.

[0095] In a possible implementation, the multiple estimated risks include any one of technical risk, financial risk, schedule risk, management risk, market risk, legal and compliance risk, health and safety risk, natural disaster risk, and environmental risk.

[0096] It should be noted that: when the device provided in the above embodiment realizes its function, only the division of the above functional modules is used as an example. In actual application, the above functions can be assigned to different functional modules as needed, that is, the internal structure of the device is divided into different functional modules to complete all or part of the functions described above. In addition, the device and method embodiments provided in the above embodiment belong to the same concept, and the specific implementation process is detailed in the method embodiment, which will not be repeated here.

[0097] The present application also discloses an electronic device. Figure 5 , Figure 5 The electronic device 500 may include: at least one processor 501 , at least one network interface 504 , a user interface 503 , a memory 505 , and at least one communication bus 502 .

[0098] The communication bus 502 is used to realize the connection and communication between these components.

[0099] The user interface 503 may include a display screen (Display) and a camera (Camera). Optionally, the user interface 503 may also include a standard wired interface and a wireless interface.

[0100] The network interface 504 may optionally include a standard wired interface or a wireless interface (such as a WI-FI interface).

[0101] Among them, the processor 501 may include one or more processing cores. The processor 501 uses various interfaces and lines to connect various parts in the entire server, and executes various functions of the server and processes data by running or executing instructions, programs, code sets or instruction sets stored in the memory 505, and calling data stored in the memory 505. Optionally, the processor 501 can be implemented in at least one hardware form of digital signal processing (Digital Signal Processing, DSP), field programmable gate array (Field-Programmable Gate Array, FPGA), and programmable logic array (Programmable Logic Array, PLA). The processor 501 can integrate one or a combination of a central processing unit (Central Processing Unit, CPU), a graphics processing unit (Graphics Processing Unit, GPU) and a modem. Among them, the CPU mainly processes the operating system, user interface and application requests; the GPU is responsible for rendering and drawing the content to be displayed on the display screen; the modem is used to process wireless communications. It can be understood that the above-mentioned modem may not be integrated into the processor 501, and it can be implemented separately through a chip.

[0102] Among them, the memory 505 may include a random access memory (RAM) or a read-only memory (Read-Only Memory). Optionally, the memory 505 includes a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium. The memory 505 can be used to store instructions, programs, codes, code sets or instruction sets. The memory 505 may include a program storage area and a data storage area, wherein the program storage area. Instructions for implementing an operating system, instructions for at least one function (such as a touch function, a sound playback function, an image playback function, etc.), instructions for implementing the above-mentioned various method embodiments, etc. can be stored; the data storage area can store data involved in the above-mentioned various method embodiments, etc. The memory 505 can also be optionally at least one storage device located away from the aforementioned processor 501.

[0103] like Figure 5 As shown, the memory 505 as a computer storage medium may include an operating system, a network communication module, a user interface module, and an application based on risk assessment of engineering projects.

[0104] exist Figure 5In the electronic device 500 shown, the user interface 503 is mainly used to provide an input interface for the user and obtain data input by the user; and the processor 501 can be used to call the application program based on the risk assessment of the engineering project stored in the memory 505. When executed by one or more processors, the electronic device executes one or more methods described in the above embodiments.

[0105] It should be noted that, for the aforementioned method embodiments, for the sake of simplicity, they are all described as a series of action combinations, but those skilled in the art should be aware that the present application is not limited by the order of the actions described, because according to the present application, certain steps can be performed in other orders or simultaneously. Secondly, those skilled in the art should also be aware that the embodiments described in the specification are all preferred embodiments, and the actions and modules involved are not necessarily required for the present application.

[0106] In the above embodiments, the description of each embodiment has its own emphasis. For parts that are not described in detail in a certain embodiment, reference can be made to the relevant descriptions of other embodiments.

[0107] In the several embodiments provided in the present application, it should be understood that the disclosed devices can be implemented in other ways. For example, the device embodiments described above are only schematic, such as the division of the units, which is only a logical function division. There may be other division methods in actual implementation, such as multiple units or components can be combined or integrated into another system, or some features can be ignored or not executed. Another point is that the mutual coupling or direct coupling or communication connection shown or discussed can be through some service interfaces, and the indirect coupling or communication connection of devices or units can be electrical or other forms.

[0108] The units described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, and the components shown as units may or may not be physical units, that is, they may be located in one place or distributed on multiple network units. Some or all of the units may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of this embodiment.

[0109] In addition, each functional unit in each embodiment of the present application may be integrated into one processing unit, or each unit may exist physically separately, or two or more units may be integrated into one unit. The above-mentioned integrated unit may be implemented in the form of hardware or in the form of software functional units.

[0110] If the integrated unit is implemented in the form of a software functional unit and sold or used as an independent product, it can be stored in a computer-readable memory. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of the present application, or the part that contributes to the prior art, or all or part of the technical solution can be embodied in the form of a software product, which is stored in a memory and includes several instructions for a computer device (which can be a personal computer, server or network device, etc.) to execute all or part of the steps of the method described in each embodiment of the present application. The aforementioned memory includes: various media that can store program codes, such as USB flash drives, mobile hard drives, magnetic disks or optical disks.

[0111] The above is only an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure and cannot be used to limit the scope of the present disclosure. That is, any equivalent changes and modifications made according to the teachings of the present disclosure are still within the scope of the present disclosure. After considering the disclosure of the specification and the truth of practice, it will be easy for those skilled in the art to think of other embodiments of the present disclosure. This application is intended to cover any variation, use or adaptive change of the present disclosure, which follows the general principles of the present disclosure and includes common knowledge or customary technical means in the technical field that are not recorded in the present disclosure.

Claims

1. A risk assessment method based on an engineering project, characterized in that: Applied in a server, the method comprises: Acquire multiple estimated risks of the project engineering, wherein the multiple estimated risks include a first estimated risk and a second estimated risk; the acquiring multiple estimated risks of the project engineering specifically includes: acquiring a preset schedule of the project engineering, wherein the preset schedule is the implementation schedule of the project engineering at a first moment; the first moment is the moment when the engineering project is initially recorded; inputting the preset schedule into a database for analysis to obtain multiple estimated risks, wherein the database is constructed from historical data and expert data; the multiple estimated risks include technical risks, financial risks, schedule risks, management risks, market risks, legal and compliance risks, health and safety risks, natural disaster risks, and environmental risks; Based on a preset method, multiple first occurrence probabilities and multiple first impact levels of the first estimated risk are obtained, and multiple second occurrence probabilities and multiple second impact levels of the second estimated risk are obtained; the preset method specifically includes: obtaining the risk type of the estimated risk; according to the risk type, obtaining a corresponding risk estimation method, the risk estimation method includes any one of an expert analysis method, a historical data analysis method, an industry data analysis method, and a scheme comparison analysis method; based on the risk estimation method, quantitatively estimating the probability of occurrence of the estimated risk to obtain the probability of occurrence of the estimated risk; simulating the project engineering to obtain a simulation result; based on the simulation result, determining the impact level of the estimated risk; combining the first estimated risk and the second estimated risk to obtain a risk group; Determining the occurrence impact rate of the risk group according to a plurality of the first occurrence probabilities and a plurality of the first impact degrees, and a plurality of the second occurrence probabilities and a plurality of the second impact degrees; Determining whether the occurrence impact rate is less than or equal to a preset occurrence threshold; When the occurrence impact rate is less than or equal to the preset occurrence threshold, it is confirmed that the first estimated risk in the risk group is associated with the second estimated risk; after confirming that the first estimated risk in the risk group is associated with the second estimated risk, the method further includes: obtaining the first occurrence probability and the first impact degree of the first estimated risk; classifying the risk level according to the first occurrence probability and the first impact degree, and the risk level includes any one of low risk, medium risk and high risk; when the first estimated risk is at the high risk, the first estimated risk corresponding to the high risk is displayed preferentially; obtaining the implementation progress of the project at the second moment, the second moment being the moment when the project is in the implementation process; performing the risk estimation method on the implementation progress to obtain a risk value; when the risk value is greater than or equal to the preset risk threshold, it is confirmed that the risk is in an abnormal state in the implementation progress, and the risk estimation method for the project needs to be adjusted.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The method further comprises: obtaining the risk level; A corresponding risk strategy is matched according to the risk level, and the risk strategy includes any one or more strategies of risk avoidance, risk transfer, risk reduction, risk control and risk increase.

3. A risk assessment device based on an engineering project, characterized in that: The device is a server, and the server comprises an acquisition unit (401), a processing unit (402) and a confirmation unit (403); The acquisition unit (401) acquires a plurality of estimated risks of the project engineering, wherein the plurality of estimated risks include a first estimated risk and a second estimated risk; the acquisition of the plurality of estimated risks of the project engineering specifically includes: acquiring a preset progress of the project engineering, wherein the preset progress is the implementation progress of the project engineering at a first moment; the first moment is the moment when the engineering project is initially recorded; inputting the preset progress into a database for analysis to obtain the plurality of estimated risks, wherein the database is constructed from historical data and expert data; the plurality of estimated risks include technical risks, financial risks, progress risks, management risks, market risks, legal and compliance risks, health and safety risks, natural disaster risks, and environmental risks; The processing unit (402) obtains a plurality of first occurrence probabilities and a plurality of first impact degrees of the first estimated risk, and obtains a plurality of second occurrence probabilities and a plurality of second impact degrees of the second estimated risk based on a preset method; the preset method specifically includes: obtaining the risk type of the estimated risk; obtaining a corresponding risk estimation method according to the risk type, the risk estimation method including any one of an expert analysis method, a historical data analysis method, an industry data analysis method, and a scheme comparison analysis method; based on the risk estimation method, quantitatively estimating the probability of occurrence of the estimated risk to obtain the probability of occurrence of the estimated risk; simulating the project engineering to obtain a simulation result; determining the impact degree of the estimated risk based on the simulation result; combining the first estimated risk and the second estimated risk to obtain a risk group; determining the occurrence impact rate of the risk group according to the plurality of the first occurrence probabilities and the plurality of the first impact degrees, and the plurality of the second occurrence probabilities and the plurality of the second impact degrees; judging whether the occurrence impact rate is less than or equal to a preset occurrence threshold; The confirmation unit (403) confirms that the first estimated risk and the second estimated risk in the risk group are correlated when the occurrence impact rate is less than or equal to the preset occurrence threshold; after confirming that the first estimated risk and the second estimated risk in the risk group are correlated, it also includes: obtaining the first occurrence probability and the first impact degree of the first estimated risk; classifying the risk level according to the first occurrence probability and the first impact degree, and the risk level includes any one of low risk, medium risk and high risk; when the first estimated risk is at the high risk, preferentially displaying the first estimated risk corresponding to the high risk; obtaining the implementation progress of the engineering project at a second moment, the second moment being the moment of the engineering project in the implementation process; performing the risk estimation method on the implementation progress to obtain a risk value; when the risk value is greater than or equal to the preset risk threshold, confirming that the risk is in an abnormal state in the implementation progress and the risk estimation method for the engineering project needs to be adjusted.

4. An electronic device, characterized in that: The electronic device (500) comprises a processor (501), a memory (505), a user interface (503) and a network interface (504), wherein the memory (505) is used to store instructions, the user interface (503) and the network interface (504) are used to communicate with other devices, and the processor (501) is used to execute the instructions stored in the memory (505) so that the electronic device (500) executes the method according to any one of claims 1 to 2.

5. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: The computer-readable storage medium stores instructions, and when the instructions are executed, the method according to any one of claims 1 to 2 is performed.

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