Method for determining fire simulation result, related method, device, equipment and application

Abstract

The application provides a fire simulation result determination method, a related method, a device, equipment and application. The fire simulation result determination method comprises the following steps: determining at least one leakage type of each leakage unit according to the leakage aperture of each leakage unit, and a preset corresponding relationship between the leakage aperture and the leakage type; determining the immediate ignition probability of each leakage type, and calculating the fire occurrence frequency according to the obtained material properties, leakage rate and release amount of each leakage unit, and the corresponding relationship between the properties of each combustible substance, the leakage rate and release amount of each leakage unit and the preset leakage type in a preset database; establishing a three-dimensional fire simulation model; determining the fire type of each leakage unit; inputting the influence parameters corresponding to each fire type of each leakage unit into the preset three-dimensional fire simulation model to obtain the fire simulation result of each leakage type of each leakage unit. The quantitative data of the fire simulation consequence is more accurate.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to a method, related methods, apparatus, equipment, and application for determining fire simulation results. Background Technology

[0002] This section is intended to provide background or context for the embodiments of the invention set forth in the claims. The description herein is not an admission that it is prior art simply because it is included in this section.

[0003] A series of major accident investigation reports in recent years, as well as findings during supervision and inspection, indicate that enterprises generally suffer from varying degrees of problems, including weak pertinence and operability in their on-site emergency plans, and poor emergency response capabilities. Plan development relies heavily on leadership decisions and expert experience, lacking scientific quantitative assessment of risk consequences. The underlying cause is insufficient emergency preparedness for sudden events, and a lack of assessment criteria and methods to determine whether the allocated emergency resources, capabilities, and teams can handle workplace accidents. Emergency preparedness, as a primary task of enterprise emergency management, is an important aspect of fulfilling corporate responsibility and a crucial prerequisite for effectively responding to sudden workplace accidents. Emergency preparedness analysis can effectively identify problems and deficiencies in enterprise emergency plans, supplies, and teams, and propose suggestions for improving emergency management, playing a vital role in responding to emergencies and ensuring safe production. Existing emergency preparedness assessment technologies both domestically and internationally primarily rely on quantitative scoring of assessment indicator systems. Typical emergency preparedness assessment indicator systems include the US CAR (Carry Forward) system, Japan's "Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Capability Indicator System," and the "Urban Emergency Management Capability Assessment" researched by Deng Yunfeng et al. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The inventors of this invention have discovered that existing emergency preparedness analysis techniques primarily rely on the experience and knowledge of experts, resulting in poor data accuracy and consequently, a lack of scientific rigor and low reference value in risk assessment results, thus affecting the accuracy and practicality of emergency preparedness analysis outcomes. Based on this, embodiments of this invention provide a method, related methods, apparatus, equipment, and application for determining fire simulation results.

[0005] As a first aspect of the present invention, the present invention provides a method for determining fire simulation results, including:

[0006] Based on the predetermined results of the leakage unit division and leakage source statistics of the crude oil tank area, the leakage orifice diameter of each leakage unit is determined;

[0007] Based on the leakage orifice diameter of each leakage unit and the preset correspondence between leakage orifice diameter and leakage type, at least one leakage type of each leakage unit is determined;

[0008] According to the material properties, the leakage rate and the release amount of each leakage unit obtained, and the correspondence relationship between the property categories of each combustible substance, the leakage rate and the release amount of each leakage unit and the preset leakage type in the preset database, the immediate ignition probability of each leakage type is determined;

[0009] According to the immediate ignition probability of each leakage unit, the fire occurrence frequency is calculated;

[0010] According to the device arrangement information and the size parameter information, the environmental information and the obstacle information of the crude oil tank area obtained in advance, a three-dimensional fire simulation model is established;

[0011] According to the device parameters, the material properties and the process parameters of each leakage unit, the fire type of each leakage unit is determined;

[0012] The influence parameters corresponding to each fire type of each leakage unit are input into the preset three-dimensional fire simulation model, and the fire simulation results of different leakage types of each leakage unit are obtained; the influence parameters of the leakage unit include one or more of pressure, temperature, material inventory, leakage position, leakage height, leakage aperture, leakage direction, environmental wind direction and environmental wind speed.

[0013] As a second aspect of the embodiments of the present application, the embodiments of the present application provide a fire risk assessment method, characterized in that the fire simulation results corresponding to each leakage type of different leakage units are determined by using the determination method of the fire simulation results as described above.

[0014] As a third aspect of the embodiments of the present application, the embodiments of the present application provide an application of the fire simulation results corresponding to each leakage type of different leakage units determined by using the determination method of the fire simulation results as described above in a fire risk assessment method.

[0015] As a fourth aspect of the embodiments of the present application, the embodiments of the present application provide a determination device of fire simulation results, comprising:

[0016] The first determination module is configured to determine the leakage aperture of each leakage unit according to the leakage unit division result and the leakage source statistical result of the crude oil tank area device determined in advance;

[0017] The second determination module is configured to determine at least one leakage type of each leakage unit according to the leakage aperture of each leakage unit and the correspondence relationship between the preset leakage aperture and the leakage type;

[0018] The third determination module is configured to determine the immediate ignition probability of each leakage type according to the material properties, the leakage rate and the release amount of each leakage unit obtained, and the correspondence relationship between the property categories of each combustible substance, the leakage rate and the release amount of each leakage unit and the preset leakage type in the preset database;

[0019] a calculation module configured to calculate a fire occurrence frequency according to the immediate ignition probability of each leakage unit;

[0020] a model establishment module configured to establish a three-dimensional fire simulation model according to the device arrangement information and size parameter information, the environment information and the obstacle information of the crude oil tank farm obtained in advance;

[0021] a fourth determination module configured to determine the fire type of each leakage unit according to the device parameters and the material properties and process parameters of each leakage unit;

[0022] a result simulation module configured to input the influence parameters corresponding to each fire type of each leakage unit into the three-dimensional fire simulation model to obtain the fire simulation results of different leakage types of each leakage unit; the influence parameters of the leakage unit include one or more of pressure, temperature, material inventory, leakage position, leakage height, leakage aperture, leakage direction, environmental wind direction and environmental wind speed.

[0023] As a fifth aspect of the embodiments of the present application, the embodiments of the present application provide a computer device, including a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that the processor implements the fire simulation result determination method as described above when executing the computer program.

[0024] As a sixth aspect of the embodiments of the present application, the embodiments of the present application provide a computer readable storage medium, characterized in that the computer readable storage medium stores a computer program for executing the fire simulation result determination method as described above.

[0025] The embodiments of the present application have the following beneficial effects:

[0026] The fire simulation result determination method provided by the embodiments of the present application can automatically and quantitatively calculate according to the real situation of the crude oil tank farm, obtain quantitative data of fire simulation consequences, and the fire simulation result is more accurate. By using the quantitative fire simulation result, accurate quantitative information is provided for emergency preparation analysis, the fire risk assessment of target objects in the fire influence range is realized, the real emergency scene is constructed based on the real quantitative fire result, it is convenient for the staff to analyze the deficiencies existing in the emergency plan, on-site equipment and facilities, personnel quality and ability, etc. in different stages of alarm, disposal, rescue, evacuation and recovery in the fire scene, so as to put forward targeted improvement measures, and realize more operational and scientific improvement suggestions for strengthening the emergency preparation ability of enterprises to deal with emergencies.

[0027] Other features and advantages of the present application will be set forth in the descriptions that follow, and in part will be apparent from the description or can be learned by practice of the application. The purposes and other advantages of the application will be realized and attained by the structure particularly pointed out in the written description and claims hereof as well as the appended drawings.

[0028] To make the above objectives, features and advantages of the present application more apparent, the following will describe a preferred embodiment in detail, and the accompanying drawings will be referred to, as follows. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0029] In order to more clearly illustrate the specific embodiments of the present application or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following will briefly introduce the drawings needed to be used in the specific embodiments or the prior art description. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present application, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can also be obtained without creative labor based on these drawings.

[0030] Figure 1 The flow chart of the method for determining the fire simulation result provided by the embodiment of the present application;

[0031] Figure 2 The planar layout diagram of the crude oil tank area provided by the embodiment of the present application;

[0032] Figure 3 The three-dimensional geometric model diagram of the crude oil tank area shown in Figure 2

[0033] Figure 4a The schematic diagram of the leakage fire simulation result of the tank pump in a specific scenario Figure 1 ;

[0034] Figure 4b The schematic diagram of the leakage fire simulation result of the tank pump in a specific scenario Figure 2 ;

[0035] Figure 4c The schematic diagram of the leakage fire simulation result of the tank pump in a specific scenario Figure 1 ;

[0036] Figure 4d The schematic diagram of the leakage fire simulation result of the tank pump in a specific scenario Figure 2 ;

[0037] Figure 5a The small pool fire heat radiation distribution Figure 1 ;

[0038] Figure 5b The small pool fire heat radiation distribution Figure 2 ;

[0039] Figure 6a ​Heat radiation distribution for medium-sized pool fire Figure 1 ;

[0040] Figure 6b Heat radiation distribution for medium-sized pool fire Figure 2 ;

[0041] Figure 7a Heat radiation distribution for large-sized pool fire Figure 1 ;

[0042] Figure 7b Heat radiation distribution for large-sized pool fire Figure 2 ;

[0043] Figure 8a Heat radiation distribution for large-sized pool fire Figure 1 ;

[0044] Figure 8b Heat radiation distribution for large-sized pool fire Figure 2 ;

[0045] Figure 9 Structure schematic view of a determination device for fire simulation results provided by an embodiment of the present application;

[0046] Figure 10 Structure schematic view of a computer device provided by an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0047] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present application clearer, the technical solutions of the present application will be described in detail below with reference to the drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are some but not all of the embodiments of the present application. Based on the embodiments of the present application, all other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without creative work fall within the protection scope of the present application.

[0048] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present application clearer, the technical solutions of the present application will be described in detail below with reference to the drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are some but not all of the embodiments of the present application. Based on the embodiments of the present application, all other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without creative work fall within the protection scope of the present application.

[0049] Embodiment 1

[0050] An embodiment of the present application provides a determination method for fire simulation results, which is applied to fire simulation of a crude oil tank area, and with reference to the method shown in FIG. 1, the method comprises the following steps: Figure 1

[0051] S101: determining a leakage aperture of each leakage unit according to a pre-determined leakage unit division result and a leakage source statistical result of a crude oil tank area device;

[0052] S102: determining at least one leakage type of each leakage unit according to the leakage aperture of each leakage unit and a pre-set corresponding relationship between the leakage aperture and the leakage type.​

[0053] S103: Determine the immediate ignition probability of each leakage type according to the material properties, leakage rate and release amount of each leakage unit obtained, and the corresponding relationship between the properties of each combustible material category, the leakage rate and release amount of each leakage unit and the preset leakage type in the preset database;

[0054] S104: Calculate the fire occurrence frequency according to the immediate ignition probability of each leakage unit;

[0055] S105: Establish a three-dimensional fire simulation model according to the device arrangement information and size parameter information, environmental information and obstacle information of the crude oil tank farm obtained in advance;

[0056] S106: Determine the fire type of each leakage unit according to the device parameters and material properties and process parameters of each leakage unit;

[0057] S107: Input the influence parameters corresponding to each fire type of each leakage unit into the three-dimensional fire simulation model to obtain the fire simulation results of different leakage types of each leakage unit; the influence parameters of the leakage unit include one or more of pressure, temperature, material inventory, leakage position, leakage height, leakage aperture, leakage direction, environmental wind direction and environmental wind speed.

[0058] In the embodiment of the present application, the leakage unit division result and the leakage source statistical result of the crude oil tank farm device in the above step S101 can be determined in advance according to the arrangement of the crude oil tank farm, and the distribution position, equipment quantity, process condition and specification parameter of each storage tank and the central control room of the crude oil tank farm can be obtained first, wherein, referring to Table 1, the equipment quantity can be calculated according to the international general database HSE hydrocarbon release database (HCRD), and the specification parameter of the storage tank includes tank number, structure form, nominal capacity, storage medium, size, material and commissioning date, etc.

[0059] Table 1: Failure data of equipment included in HCRD

[0060] Process piping Flanges Manual valves Power driven valves Instrumentation interfaces Pressure vessels Atmospheric vessels Centrifugal pumps Reciprocating pumps Centrifugal compressors Reciprocating compressors Heat exchangers (tube side) Heat exchangers (shell side) Plate heat exchangers Air coolers Filters Ball receiving tubes Other

[0061] Among them, the leakage unit division can be based on the position of the ESD valve or the valve with cutting function and the device arrangement, and divided according to the following principles: taking the valve position that can cut off the leakage source when leakage occurs as the main basis, so that each leakage unit is relatively independent of other units when leakage occurs; the leakage unit is usually only for the main process material loop; according to the different operating parameters (temperature, pressure) of the process system, different materials and different positions of the equipment in the leakage unit, the leakage unit can also be divided into a series of leakage sub-units.

[0062] After determining the leaking units, the leaking type of each leaking unit in step 2 above can be determined by referring to the pre-set leaking types in Table 2 below, and determining the leaking type according to the size of the leaking equivalent aperture.

[0063] Pre-set leaking types in Table 1

[0064]

[0065] In one embodiment, the leaking rate of each leaking unit in step S103 above can be determined by the following method:

[0066] According to the leaking position, pressure and leaking aperture of each leaking unit, the leaking rate of each leaking unit is calculated.

[0067] In one specific embodiment, according to the process parameters and the leaking aperture, the initial leaking rate can be calculated by referring to Table 3 and Table 4. Considering the operation of feeding and discharging of the storage tank, when feeding, the pressure is the post-pump pressure, and when discharging, the pressure is the pre-pump pressure (liquid level pressure). Therefore, for the leaking calculation of the 8W crude oil storage tank, the calculation under two pressure conditions is performed respectively.

[0068] Table 3: Initial leaking rate before pump

[0069]

[0070] Table 4: Initial leaking rate after pump

[0071]

[0072] In one embodiment, the method for determining the fire simulation result further comprises determining the leaking frequency of each leaking unit according to the pre-determined leaking unit division result and the leaking source statistical result of the crude oil tank area device.

[0073] In one specific embodiment, the method for determining the leaking frequency of each leaking unit according to the pre-determined leaking unit division result and the leaking source statistical result of the crude oil tank area device comprises:

[0074] According to the pre-determined leaking unit division result and the leaking source statistical result of the crude oil tank area device, the leaking frequency of each leaking unit when the leaking aperture of the leaking unit is greater than the pre-set leaking aperture is calculated by the following formula:

[0075] F(d) = C(1 + aD n )d m + F rup ;

[0076] Wherein, F(d) represents a leak frequency (per equipment year) of a leak aperture larger than a diameter d, C represents a constant of an aperture distribution law, m represents a constant of an aperture distribution law, a represents a constant of different equipment types, n represents a constant of different equipment types, F rup represents a device rupture frequency (per equipment year), D represents a device diameter or a device inlet pipe diameter, and d represents a preset leak aperture.

[0077] In the embodiment of the present application, based on the leak accident statistical data, the process leak frequency calculation model can continuously calculate the leak frequency of the equipment according to the equipment size, calculate the overall leak frequency, and further divide the overall leak frequency according to the division principle of the aperture or the leak rate. The specific implementation process can refer to the detailed description in the prior art, and will not be repeated here.

[0078] In the embodiment of the present application, the leak frequency can be calculated by ULF (Utregning av Lekkasje Frekvenser) software. The specific calculation process can refer to the detailed description of the ULF software in the prior art. The specific implementation method and the specific acquisition process of the ULF software can refer to the detailed description in the prior art. As long as the corresponding leak frequency can be obtained, it is not limited in the embodiment of the present application.

[0079] According to the obtained material properties, leak rate and release amount of each leak unit, and the corresponding relationship between the properties of each combustible substance category, the leak rate and the release amount of each leak unit and the preset leak type in the preset database, the immediate ignition probability of each leak type is determined;

[0080] In the embodiment of the present application, the immediate ignition probability can be realized based on TLT (Transient Leak Tool) software. The TLT software is used to calculate the leak duration when the leak rate reaches a certain set value, which is used to evaluate the duration of the leak or fire. The transient leak result calculated by the TLT can be used to calculate the development process of the combustible gas cloud and the corresponding ignition probability.

[0081] In the embodiment of the present application, the specific implementation method and the specific acquisition process of the TLT software can refer to the detailed description in the prior art. As long as the corresponding immediate ignition probability can be obtained, it is not limited in the embodiment of the present application.

[0082] In one embodiment, referring to Table 5, the setting of the immediate ignition parameter is determined according to the material reactivity when the setting is calculated, and the immediate ignition possibility depends on the leakage phase and the leakage size and the activity level of the material. Referring to Table 6, the material in the crude oil tank area can be classified according to Table 6.

[0083] Table 5 Immediate ignition probability after leakage of fixed installation flammable substance

[0084]

[0085]

[0086] Table 6 Classification of flammable substances

[0087]

[0088] In the embodiment of the present application, after determining the immediate ignition probability of each leakage unit, the fire occurrence frequency can be calculated according to the immediate ignition probability. Specifically, the corresponding fire occurrence frequency can be obtained by multiplying the determined leakage frequency of each leakage unit and the corresponding immediate ignition probability. The specific implementation process can refer to the detailed description in the related art, and will not be described here.

[0089] In the embodiment of the present application, a three-dimensional fire simulation model is established according to the pre-acquired device arrangement information and size parameter information, environmental information and obstacle information of the crude oil tank area. The three-dimensional fire simulation model is a three-dimensional geometric model of the crude oil tank area. In establishing the model, the modeling method in the prior art can be used as long as it can meet the requirements of the fire simulation software, such as KFX (Kameleon FireEx) software, so as to realize the three-dimensional transient simulation of gas diffusion and fire, and obtain the fire simulation result.

[0090] In one embodiment, the fire type of the leakage unit includes pool fire and / or jet fire; in the step S106, the fire type of each leakage unit is determined according to the device parameters and material properties and process parameters of each leakage unit, including:

[0091] According to the obtained storage tank, material properties and / or process conditions of each leakage unit, the fire type of each leakage unit is determined as pool fire or jet fire.

[0092] In the embodiment of the present application, for different types of storage tanks and materials, it can be judged whether pool fire or jet fire can be formed according to the material properties and process conditions. For example, finished crude oil can form pool fire, and propylene spherical tank leakage can form jet fire due to high pressure and propylene flashing.

[0093] In one specific embodiment, in the step S107, the influence parameters corresponding to each fire type of each leakage unit are input into the three-dimensional fire simulation model to obtain the fire simulation results of different leakage types of each leakage unit, including:

[0094] According to the fire types of each leakage unit, the influence parameter ranges corresponding to different leakage types of each leakage unit are determined to obtain multiple fire simulation results of different leakage types of each leakage unit corresponding to different influence parameter values.

[0095] In the embodiment of the present application, the fire frequency calculation result may be, for example, a basis for ordering the execution sequence when simulating different leakage types of each leakage unit in the fire simulation process, for example, the higher the fire frequency, the higher the priority for simulation calculation.

[0096] In one specific embodiment, according to the fire types of each leakage unit, the influence parameter ranges corresponding to different leakage types of each leakage unit are determined to obtain multiple fire simulation results of different leakage types of each leakage unit corresponding to different influence parameter values, including:

[0097] determining different fire types of each leakage unit;

[0098] If the fire type of the leakage unit is pool fire, the parameter ranges of the leakage aperture, the leakage position, the wind direction and the wind speed corresponding to different leakage types of each leakage unit are determined to obtain multiple groups of leakage parameters; each group of leakage parameters under each different leakage type is input into the three-dimensional fire simulation model to obtain multiple fire simulation results corresponding to each leakage type of the leakage unit;

[0099] If the fire type of the leakage unit is jet fire, the parameter ranges of the leakage aperture, the leakage position, the leakage direction, the wind direction and the wind speed corresponding to different leakage types of each leakage unit are determined to obtain multiple groups of leakage parameters; each group of leakage parameters under each different leakage type is input into the three-dimensional fire simulation model to obtain multiple fire simulation results corresponding to each leakage type of the leakage unit.

[0100] In the embodiment of the present application, the fire simulation software, for example, KFX (Kameleon FireEx) software, can simulate the influence of factors such as obstacles based on the basic control equation, and the wind speed and wind direction statistical data of the crude oil tank area will be set in the simulation, and the influence of the fire consequences will finally be reflected in the risk results. According to the tank area layout plan and size parameters, the surrounding environment and obstacle conditions, a three-dimensional model required for fire simulation is created. The model needs to be able to reflect the actual size and congestion of the device. In particular, some key units that may affect the consequences of fire, such as tank area cofferdams, plant area walls, large buildings, equipment, structures, etc., need to be truly reflected in the model.

[0101] The three-dimensional fire simulation is performed for each leakage type of each leakage unit. In the simulation, device process parameters, leakage rate, wind direction and wind speed and other parameters need to be set. For jet fire, the factors affecting the fire consequences mainly include leakage aperture, leakage position, leakage direction, wind direction and wind speed. In the fire simulation, the above influencing factors need to be considered to affect the results. By changing the value of a certain factor and keeping other factors unchanged, the influence law of the factor on the consequences is studied. For pool fire, the factors affecting the fire consequences mainly include leakage aperture, leakage position, wind direction and wind speed. By changing the value of a certain factor and keeping other factors unchanged, the influence law of the factors on the consequences is studied. Since there are many influencing factors, a sufficient number of fire simulation conditions are required to achieve the analysis purpose. Due to the influence of the above factors on the results, the total number of fire simulation conditions is not less than 300.

[0102] In the actual simulation process, the influence of fire thermal radiation on surrounding key facilities and areas can be considered, and the fire influence range and safety distance are evaluated through the distribution of thermal radiation in the horizontal plane and three-dimensional space. At the same time, the change of visibility caused by carbon smoke generation during the fire occurrence process is also considered. The above analysis results will be the key input for quantitative risk assessment, and also provide reference for subsequent emergency preparation analysis.

[0103] As an example of an embodiment of the present application, taking a tank area as an example, referring to the tank area storage tank layout diagram shown in Figure 2 The tank area mainly stores crude oil, gasoline and diesel oil. The six storage tanks in the north of the salt island tank area are diesel oil storage tanks. The south side of the diesel oil tank area is the crude oil tank area, which has four crude oil storage tanks. The south side of the crude oil tank area is the gasoline tank area, which has six gasoline storage tanks. The specifications and models of the storage tanks in the tank area are shown in Table 7.

[0104] Table 7 Specifications of storage tanks in the tank area

[0105]

[0106] Referring to Figure 3 , the three geometric models of the tank area are obtained based on three-dimensional modeling to meet the requirements of the geometric model for fire simulation software simulation.

[0107] Referring to Figure 2 and Figure 3As shown, according to the site layout, since the 8W crude oil storage tank is closest to the office building, the fire caused by the leakage of the 8W storage tank can affect the adjacent office building and can cause the office building structure to be damaged; the 8W storage tank is close to the factory gate, and the factory gate is an escape channel for the personnel in the factory, and the leakage fire of the 8W storage tank can cause the nearby escape channel to be unavailable, affecting the personnel in the factory to escape outside. Based on the above reasons, the fire consequences caused by the leakage of the 8W storage tank are more serious than those of other crude oil storage tanks, so the 8W storage tank is selected as the research object in this example.

[0108] After the 8W crude oil storage tank leaks, a fire can occur. The leakage position is considered according to the pressure change, respectively considering the leakage before the pump and the leakage after the pump. For the 8W storage tank, if the tank root valve fails, the leakage duration is long, and the leakage pressure is the static pressure of the liquid in the tank. Since the static pressure is low, the leakage amount per unit time of small and medium leakage apertures is small, so large and broken leakages are considered in the worst case, and ignition occurs immediately after leakage.

[0109] According to the leakage unit division result and the leakage source statistical result of the 8W storage tank, the leakage aperture of each leakage unit is determined, and at least one leakage type of each leakage unit is determined, and the influence parameters of each fire scenario of the leakage unit are obtained, as shown in Tables 8 and 9. Since the 8W storage tank leaks after the pump, large leaks are easy to be found, the leakage duration is short, and it is not likely to form a large area of liquid pool for a long time, so the leakage aperture is selected to be small and medium, the most unfavorable case is considered, and ignition occurs immediately after leakage. Since the material of the 8W storage tank is crude oil, the fire type is determined to be pool fire. Thus, in the fire simulation model, the fire simulation result is obtained, as shown in Table 10.

[0110] Table 8 Influence parameters of fire scenarios of leakage before pump

[0111] Serial number Number Leak aperture (mm) Leak rate (kg / s) Wind direction Wind speed (m / s) Pool area m 2 ]]> 1 PM1N5 25 4.79 North 5 95.84 2 PM1N10 25 4.79 North 10 95.84 3 PM1N15 25 4.79 North 15 95.84 ...... 19 PL1N5 100 76.67 North 5 1533.44 20 PL1N10 100 76.67 North 10 1533.44 21 PL1N15 100 76.67 North 15 1533.44 ...... 31 PR1N5 200 306.69 North 5 6133.75 32 PR1N10 200 306.69 North 10 6133.75 33 PR1N15 200 306.69 North 15 6133.75

[0112] Table 9 Influence parameters of fire scenarios of leakage after pump

[0113]

[0114]

[0115] Table 10 Fire simulation results of the 8W crude oil storage tank in the tank area

[0116]

[0117]

[0118] The pool fire simulation results of several scenarios are described as follows:

[0119] For example, referring to Table 10, the pool fire simulation results of the 8W storage tank in the tank area are shown in Table 10.Figure 4a As shown in FIG. 8, under the PL1N5 scenario, the leakage diameter of the 8W tank pump is 100 mm; the leakage rate is 76.67 kg / s; the pool area is 1533.44 m 2 , the wind direction is north, the wind speed is 5 m / s, and the analysis is performed on Figure 4a . It is concluded that the thermal radiation range is 1 meter above the ground. Referring to FIG. 9, the corresponding 8W tank pump post-leakage flame three-dimensional view is obtained. Figure 4b

[0120] For example, as shown in FIG. 10, under the PR1N5 scenario, the scene description is: 8W tank pump pre-leakage, leakage diameter 200 mm; leakage rate 306.69 kg / s; pool area 6133.75 m 2 , the wind direction is north, the wind speed is 5 m / s, and the analysis is performed on Figure 4c . It is concluded that the thermal radiation range is 1 meter above the ground. Referring to FIG. 11, the corresponding 8W tank pump post-leakage flame three-dimensional view is obtained. Figure 4a Figure 4b Through the above method, the 8w tank in the tank area is modeled and the leakage fire simulation work is performed. Through the simulation of leakage fire scene under different leakage conditions and different wind directions and wind speeds, the influence range of crude oil tank leakage fire is obtained. Through analysis, the key factors affecting fire thermal radiation that need to be concerned and considered in three-dimensional quantitative risk assessment of tank area are summarized, which can provide reference for formulating method guidelines for three-dimensional quantitative risk assessment of tank area. In the fire analysis, the 8W tank peripheral facility arrangement is determined according to and

[0121] , and the 8w tank peripheral facility condition statistical table is obtained, as shown in Table 11. The tank area collection area is located at the east gate of the plant. Further, the fire simulation results of the 8W tank are summarized, and the fire analysis results are obtained, as shown in Table 12. Figure 2 Figure 3 Table 11 Statistical table of tank peripheral facilities

[0122]

[0123]

[0124] Table 12 Consequences of 8W tank leakage fire scenario in salt island tank area

[0125]

[0126]

[0127] ​​​As shown in Table 12, the simulation results of pool fires with different liquid pool areas indicate that the range of heat radiation influence of a pool fire is mainly affected by the area of ​​the liquid pool; the larger the liquid pool area, the larger the range of heat radiation influence. For various pool fire scenarios, comparing the influence range of a certain heat radiation flux on a plane at different heights, high heat radiation flux (>80kW / m²) has a larger influence range at lower horizontal planes, but the influence range usually does not exceed the liquid pool area. Low heat radiation flux (<6kW / m²) has a larger influence range at higher horizontal planes. The analysis for small, medium, large, and large pool fires is as follows:

[0128] Small pool fire

[0129] Reference Figure 5a - Figure 5b As shown, based on the simulation results of small pool fires, the impact range of a small pool fire will not exceed the firewall, and the area affected by heat radiation will decrease with increasing wind speed. Pool fires caused by small leaks within the firewall will not have a destructive impact on adjacent storage tanks, nor will they damage escape routes and critical buildings around the tank area.

[0130] Medium-sized pool fire

[0131] Reference Figure 6a - Figure 6b As shown, simulation results indicate that the impact range of a medium-sized pool fire extends beyond the firewall. This is because the firewall is only 2 meters high, while the diameter of the liquid pool in this medium-sized pool fire is greater than 18 meters. Therefore, the firewall cannot completely prevent the flames from crossing it. When the liquid pool is located at the northeast corner of tank 8W, the heat radiation flux received by the office building facing the tank area will exceed 12.5 kW / m², while the heat radiation flux received by tank 8W will be less than 37.5 kW / m². In this situation, personnel cannot escape through the doors on the side of the office building facing the tank area. Furthermore, the windows facing the tank area will be damaged due to the excessive heat radiation flux, thus affecting the personnel inside the building. When the liquid pool is located at the southwest corner of tank 8W, with the wind direction south, although the flames will cross the firewall, the heat radiation flux received by tank 6W on the south side is less than 6 kW / m², and will not cause damage to the tank. Therefore, based on the simulation results of pool fires at different locations, it can be inferred that for pool fires caused by medium-sized leaks within the firewall, if the liquid pool is located below the valve assembly or near the storage tank, the local heat radiation flux received by the tank wall of the storage tank located within the same firewall as the leak source may be greater than 80kW / m2, which may cause structural damage in a short period of time, but will not have a destructive impact on adjacent storage tanks.

[0132] Larger pool fire

[0133] Reference Figure 7a - Figure 7bAs shown, the simulation results show that in the case of large leakage, the heat flux of the horizontal plane 1 m above the ground in the entire fire dike is greater than 80 kW / m2. With the increase of height, the influence range of heat flux greater than 80 kW / m2 is reduced, and the main influence area is the annular area around the storage tank, and the influence of wind direction is not great. At a height of 1 m from the ground, the heat flux around the fire dike is greater than 4 kW / m2, and the escape passage cannot be used. Under any wind direction, the heat flux received by the open space in front of the office building facing the tank area is greater than 6 kW / m2, in which case the personnel cannot escape through the door on the side of the office building facing the tank area, and the open space in front of the building cannot be used as an emergency assembly area. The windows on the side of the office building facing the tank area will also be damaged due to the high heat flux received, which will affect the people inside the building. Under the condition of large pool fire, the heat flux received by the adjacent tank is basically less than 37.5 kW / m2, which will not cause the tank to be damaged in a short time. Only the No. 2 tank closest to the No. 1 tank will be subjected to a heat flux greater than 37.5 kW / m2 when it is located in the downwind direction of the pool fire and the wind speed is high. Under such heat flux, the failure time of the tank is less than 60 minutes.

[0134] Large pool fire

[0135] Referring to Figure 8a - Figure 8b As shown, for a large pool fire (filling the entire fire dike), the influence range of 80 kW / m2 heat flux is basically the liquid pool boundary at a lower level. When the height increases (such as 5 m), the influence range is an annular area around the storage tank, and the distance is reduced. The influence distance of 37.5 kW / m2 and 80 kW / m2 heat flux is close. For objects wrapped by flames, they will be subjected to a heat flux greater than 80 kW / m2. There are usually pipe racks in the fire dike to support the pipes, and the height is limited. According to the fire simulation results, the pipe rack is easily wrapped by the flame and fails in a short time, which may cause the pipe to break and further escalate the accident.

[0136] The simulation results show that the influence distance of low heat flux at a 5 m high level is greater than that at a 1 m high level, indicating that the 2 m high fire dike has a certain blocking effect on heat radiation. At the same time, due to the large diameter of the storage tank, it has a blocking effect on heat radiation. If the liquid pool area is small, the side of the storage tank away from the pool fire will not be affected by the fire heat radiation.

[0137] In one embodiment, the method for determining the above fire simulation results further comprises determining the leakage shutdown time corresponding to each leakage type of each leakage unit according to the leakage type of each leakage unit and the preset corresponding relationship between the leakage type and the leakage shutdown time.

[0138] In the embodiment of the present application, the leak-off shutdown time is a parameter for determining the total amount of system leakage, and the leak-off time is related to many factors, for example, the leak-off position, the leak-off hole size, the probe arrangement, the environmental factors including the wind direction, and the management factors such as the inspection arrangement, the personnel reaction time, the response time and reliability of the safety system, which all affect the determination of the leak-off shutdown time and the calculation of the total amount of leakage. In the specific implementation, the leak-off shutdown time table can be determined in advance for different leak-off types with reference to Table 13, so as to determine the leak-off shutdown time according to the leak-off type.

[0139] Table 13: Correspondence table of leak-off type and leak-off shutdown time

[0140]

[0141] The method for determining the fire simulation result provided in the embodiment of the present application can automatically quantitatively calculate according to the real situation of the crude oil tank area, obtain the quantitative data of the fire simulation consequence, and the fire simulation result is more accurate. By using the quantitative fire simulation result, accurate quantitative information is provided for emergency preparation analysis, the fire risk assessment of the target objects in the fire influence range is realized, the real emergency scene is constructed based on the real quantitative fire result, it is convenient for the staff to analyze the deficiencies existing in the emergency plan, the on-site equipment and facilities, the personnel quality and ability, etc. in different stages of the alarm, disposal, rescue, evacuation and recovery in the fire scene, so as to propose targeted improvement measures, and realize the operation and scientific improvement suggestions for strengthening the emergency preparation ability of the enterprise to cope with the emergency.

[0142] Embodiment 2

[0143] Based on the same inventive concept, the embodiment of the present application also provides a fire risk assessment method, which uses the fire simulation results corresponding to the different leak-off types of the different leak-off units determined by the method for determining the fire simulation result described in the above embodiment 1.

[0144] In the embodiment of the present application, the risk critical branch can be determined based on the event tree risk analysis method, the fire risk assessment is realized, and the risk value of the analysis target object is quantified. Based on this, the above fire risk assessment method further includes:

[0145] determining the fire influence range according to the fire simulation results corresponding to the different leak-off types of the different leak-off units;

[0146] determining the risk assessment result of the target object in the fire influence range according to the determined fire influence range by the following way:

[0147] The occurrence frequency of the fire event of the different leak-off types of the different leak-off units is calculated according to the following formula:

[0148] ET8 i = ET1 LOC * ET2 Directi * ET3 Delayi * ET4 VCE * ET5 winddir * ET6 windspeed * ET11 i

[0149] Wherein, ET8 i represents the frequency of fire event; ET1 LOC represents the leakage frequency of the leakage unit; ET2 Directi represents the immediate ignition probability of the leakage unit; ET3 Delayi represents the delayed ignition probability of the leakage unit; ET4 VCE represents the probability of vapor cloud explosion of the leakage unit; ET5 winddir represents the wind direction and the frequency distribution of each direction; ET6 windspeed represents different wind speed and its possible frequency distribution under each wind direction condition; ET11 i represents the mortality rate caused by different heat radiation levels;

[0150] The risk of fire final event of each leakage type of different leakage units is calculated according to the following formula:

[0151] LSIR i = ET8 i * ET11 i ;

[0152] Wherein, LSIR i represents the risk of fire final event of the i-th leakage type of different leakage units; wherein the fire final event includes at least one of pool fire, jet fire, vapor cloud explosion, flash fire and non-impact diffusion event;

[0153] According to the risk of fire final event of each leakage type of different leakage units, the risk of each leakage type of different leakage units to the target object is calculated.

[0154] According to the risk of each leakage type of different leakage units to the target object, the risk value of all leakage types of different leakage units to the target object is calculated.

[0155] In the embodiment of the present application, the fire simulation results of the above 8w oil tank are taken as an example to illustrate the analysis of the influence of pool fire hazard on the personnel in the central control room as the target object of the crude oil tank area.

[0156] Firstly, the event tree risk analysis method determines the risk key branch description as follows:

[0157] ET1 LOC Leak scenario: the leak case and its leak frequency, unit: times / year;

[0158] ET2 Directi Immediate ignition: the probability of immediate ignition;

[0159] ET 3Delayi Delayed ignition: the probability of delayed ignition;

[0160] ET 4VCE Explosion likelihood: the likelihood of a vapor cloud explosion;

[0161] ET5 winddir Wind direction and frequency distribution: one of the key inputs of meteorological conditions, representing the wind direction and the frequency distribution of each direction;

[0162] ET6 windspeed Wind speed and frequency: different wind speeds and their possible frequency distribution under each wind direction condition;

[0163] ET7 Final event: according to the development of the event tree, describing the final event, including pool fire, jet fire, vapor cloud explosion, flash fire, and no-impact diffusion event, etc.;

[0164] ET8 i Event frequency: representing the occurrence frequency of the final event, unit: times / year;

[0165] ET9 Consequence impact range: taken from the three-dimensional CFD accident consequence simulation data, i.e. the impact distance of different heat radiation levels caused by the fire, unit: m;

[0166] ET10 Target distance: the distance from the leak point to the target of the analysis object, unit: m;

[0167] ET11 Personnel fatality rate: the personnel fatality rate caused by different heat radiation levels;

[0168] ET12 Individual risk: the individual risk of each final event to the analysis target object, unit: per year.

[0169] In the process of quantitative risk analysis of fire, the main consideration is the possible impact of fire on personnel, among which the main harm is fire heat radiation. The harm and damage caused by different heat radiation intensities are shown in Table 14.

[0170] Table 14 Harm and damage caused by different heat radiation intensities

[0171]

[0172]

[0173] Based on Table 14, we give the fire thermal radiation impact determination criteria used in the event tree as follows:

[0174] 37.5 kW / m 2 : 100% of the personnel mortality rate;

[0175] 12.5 kW / m 2 : 1% of the personnel mortality rate;

[0176] 4 kW / m 2 : 0% of the personnel mortality rate.

[0177] For the analysis target object, according to the distance between the target object and the leakage point, the fire thermal radiation impact range is compared to determine the possible fire thermal radiation level covering the target object, and further determine the possible personnel mortality rate.

[0178] The calculation process of the fire risk assessment is as follows:

[0179] STEP1: Calculate the final event frequency

[0180] ET8 i = ET1 LOC * ET2 Directi * ET3 Delayi * ET4 VCE * ET5 winddir * ET6 windspeed * ET11 i ;

[0181] STEP2: Calculate the risk of each final event

[0182] LSIR i = ET8 i * ET11 i ;

[0183] STEP3: Calculate the risk of each case to the target object

[0184] LSIR m = ∑LSIR i ;

[0185] STEP4: Calculate the risk value of all cases to the target object

[0186] LSIR n = ∑LSIR m .

[0187] Thus, the risk calculation results in the control room in the target object of the tank area are shown in Table 15.

[0188] Table 15 Risk value of target object in each tank area

[0189] Tank farm name Target object Risk value LSIR ( / year) Crude oil tank farm Control room 1.46E-05

[0190] Based on the target object risk value of the fire risk assessment, according to the preset personal risk acceptable criteria table, see Table 16, the risk assessment work is carried out, that is, the risk level of the fire assessment result is judged.

[0191] Table 16 Personal risk acceptable criteria

[0192]

[0193]

[0194] Suppose that the personnel shift is three shifts and two shifts, and the personnel exposure rate is considered, the target personal annual average risk value is analyzed, see Table 17.

[0195] Table 17 Target object personal annual average risk value of each tank area

[0196] Tank farm name Target object Personal average annual risk ( / year) Salt island crude oil tank farm Control room 4.87E-06

[0197] According to the comparison of the personal risk acceptable criteria, the personal annual average risk of each analysis target object caused by the fire event is in the risk tolerable area.

[0198] From the above analysis, it can be concluded that the main type of crude oil tank leakage fire in the tank area is pool fire, and the pool fire in the tank area mainly causes damage to the process pipelines and storage tanks in the tank area. Under different wind direction and wind speed conditions, large pool fires in the tank area may have different effects on the surrounding facilities. For objects wrapped by flames, they will all be subjected to a heat flux greater than 80 kW / m2. The influence range of small fires is limited within the tank area dike, and medium and above fires may cause the nearby escape passage in the tank area to be unusable. Larger and large pool fires may cause the process pipelines laid in the fire dike to fail in a short time, thereby causing the accident to escalate. Pool fires caused by large leaks may cause the structure of the adjacent storage tanks to be damaged under high wind speed conditions. When the liquid pool is located on the side of the fire dike close to the office building or the fire station, medium and above pool fires may cause the structure of the doors and windows on the side of the office building or the fire station facing the tank area to be damaged, and larger and large pool fires may cause the assembly area at the factory gate to be unusable.

[0199] Embodiment 3

[0200] Based on the same inventive concept, the application also provides an application of the fire simulation results corresponding to each leakage type of different leakage units in a fire risk assessment method, which is determined by the determination method of the fire simulation results as described in Embodiment 1.

[0201] Embodiment 4

[0202] Based on the same inventive concept, the embodiment of the present application also provides a device for determining fire simulation results, as described in Embodiment 4 below. Since the principle of the device for solving the problem is similar to the above-mentioned method for determining fire simulation results, the specific embodiments of these devices can refer to the detailed description of the related method described above, and the repeated parts will not be described here.

[0203] The embodiment of the present application also provides a device for determining fire simulation results, as shown in Figure 9 The device comprises:

[0204] The first determining module 101 is configured to determine the leakage aperture of each leakage unit according to the leakage unit division result and the leakage source statistical result of the crude oil tank farm device determined in advance;

[0205] The second determining module 102 is configured to determine at least one leakage type of each leakage unit according to the leakage aperture of each leakage unit and a preset corresponding relationship between the leakage aperture and the leakage type;

[0206] The third determining module 103 is configured to determine the immediate ignition probability of each leakage type according to the material property, the leakage rate and the release amount of each leakage unit obtained, and a preset corresponding relationship between the property category of each combustible material, the leakage rate and the release amount of each leakage unit and the preset leakage type in the database;

[0207] The calculation module 104 is configured to calculate the fire occurrence frequency according to the immediate ignition probability of each leakage unit;

[0208] The model establishing module 105 is configured to establish a three-dimensional fire simulation model according to the device arrangement information and the size parameter information, the environmental information and the obstacle information of the crude oil tank farm obtained in advance;

[0209] The fourth determining module 106 is configured to determine the fire type of each leakage unit according to the device parameters and the material property and the process parameters of each leakage unit;

[0210] The result simulation module 107 is configured to input the influence parameters corresponding to each fire type of each leakage unit into the three-dimensional fire simulation model to obtain the fire simulation results of different leakage types of each leakage unit; the influence parameters of the leakage unit include one or more of the pressure, the temperature, the material inventory, the leakage position, the leakage height, the leakage aperture, the leakage direction, the environmental wind direction and the environmental wind speed.

[0211] Based on the same inventive concept, the embodiment of the present application also provides a computer device for implementing all or part of the above-mentioned method for determining fire simulation results. The computer device specifically comprises the following contents:

[0212] A processor, a memory, a communications interface, and a bus; wherein the processor, the memory, the communications interface complete the communication among each other through the bus; the communications interface is used for realizing the information transmission between related devices; the computer device can be a desktop computer, a tablet computer, a mobile terminal and the like, and the embodiments are not limited thereto. In the embodiments, the computer device can be implemented by referring to the embodiments of the method for determining the crude oil tank farm fire simulation result and the embodiments of the device for determining the fire simulation result, and the contents are incorporated herein, and the repeated parts will not be described herein.

[0213] Figure 10 A system composition structure diagram of a computer device provided in the embodiments of the present application is shown in FIG. 1. As shown in the figure, the computer device 100 can include a processor 1001 and a memory 1002; the memory 1002 is coupled to the processor 1001. It is worth noting that the structure shown in the figure is exemplary; other types of structures can also be used to supplement or replace the structure to realize the telecommunication function or other functions. Figure 10 Figure 10 The structure shown in the figure is exemplary; other types of structures can also be used to supplement or replace the structure to realize the telecommunication function or other functions.

[0214] In one embodiment, the function of the method for determining the crude oil tank farm fire simulation result can be integrated into the processor 1001. Wherein, the processor 1001 can be configured to control as follows:

[0215] According to the pre-determined leakage unit division result and the leakage source statistical result of the crude oil tank farm device, the leakage aperture of each leakage unit is determined;

[0216] According to the leakage aperture of each leakage unit and the pre-set corresponding relationship between the leakage aperture and the leakage type, at least one leakage type of each leakage unit is determined;

[0217] According to the obtained material properties, leakage rate and release amount of each leakage unit, and the corresponding relationship between the pre-set database of each combustible substance property category, leakage rate and release amount of the leakage unit and the pre-set leakage type, the immediate ignition probability of each leakage type is determined;

[0218] According to the immediate ignition probability of each leakage unit, the fire occurrence frequency is calculated;

[0219] According to the pre-obtained device arrangement information and size parameter information, environmental information and obstacle information of the crude oil tank farm, a three-dimensional fire simulation model is established;

[0220] According to the device parameters and material properties and process parameters of each leakage unit, the fire type of each leakage unit is determined;

[0221] ​The influence parameters corresponding to each fire type of each leakage unit are input into a preset three-dimensional fire simulation model to obtain fire simulation results of different leakage types of each leakage unit; the influence parameters of the leakage unit include one or more of pressure, temperature, material inventory, leakage position, leakage height, leakage aperture, leakage direction, environmental wind direction and environmental wind speed.

[0222] In another embodiment, the device can be configured separately from the processor 1001, for example, the device for determining the crude oil tank farm fire simulation result can be configured as a chip connected with the processor 1001, and the function of the method for determining the crude oil tank farm fire simulation result is realized through the control of the processor.

[0223] As shown in Figure 10 , the computer device 100 can also include a communication module 1003, an input unit 1004, an audio processing unit 1005, a display 1006, and a power supply 1007. It should be noted that the computer device 100 does not necessarily include all the components shown in Figure 10 ; in addition, the computer device 100 can also include components not shown in Figure 10 , which can be referred to the prior art.

[0224] As shown in Figure 10 , the processor 1001, also sometimes referred to as a controller or operating control, can include a microprocessor or other processor device and / or logic device, which receives input and controls the operation of the various components of the computer device 100.

[0225] The memory 1002, for example, can be one or more of a buffer, a flash memory, a hard drive, a removable media, a volatile memory, a non-volatile memory, or other suitable device. The above information related to failure can be stored, and in addition, programs for executing the information can also be stored. The processor 1001 can execute the programs stored in the memory 1002 to realize information storage or processing, etc.

[0226] The input unit 1004 provides input to the processor 1001. The input unit 1004 is, for example, a key or touch input device. The power supply 1007 is used to provide power to the computer device 100. The display 1006 is used to display display objects such as images and text. The display can be, for example, an LCD display, but is not limited thereto.

[0227] The memory 1002 can be a solid state memory such as a read only memory (ROM), a random access memory (RAM), a SIM card, and the like. It can also be a memory that retains information even when power is off, can be selectively erased, and is provided with more data, an example of which is sometimes referred to as an EPROM or the like. The memory 1002 can also be some other type of device. The memory 1002 includes a buffer memory 10021 (sometimes referred to as a buffer). The memory 1002 can include an application / function storage section 10022 for storing application programs and function programs or for storing a flow for executing the operation of the computer device 100 by the processor 1001.

[0228] The memory 1002 can also include a data storage section 10023 for storing data such as contacts, digital data, pictures, sounds, and / or any other data used by the computer device. A driver storage section 10024 of the memory 1002 can include various drivers of the computer device for communication functions and / or for performing other functions of the computer device such as a messaging application, an address book application, and the like.

[0229] The communication module 1003 is a transmitter / receiver that transmits and receives signals via the antenna 1008. The communication module (transmitter / receiver) 1003 is coupled to the processor 1001 to provide input signals and receive output signals, which can be the same as in the case of a conventional mobile communication terminal.

[0230] Based on different communication technologies, a plurality of communication modules 1003 such as a cellular network module, a Bluetooth module, and / or a wireless local area network module, and the like can be provided in the same computer device. The communication module (transmitter / receiver) 1003 is also coupled to the speaker 1009 and the microphone 1010 via the audio processing unit 1005 to provide audio output via the speaker 1009 and to receive audio input from the microphone 1010, thereby enabling the usual telecommunication functions. The audio processing unit 1005 can include any suitable buffers, decoders, amplifiers, and the like. In addition, the audio processing unit 1005 is also coupled to the processor 1001, thereby enabling recording on the local device via the microphone 1010 and enabling playing of stored sounds on the local device via the speaker 1009.

[0231] Based on the same inventive concept, the embodiments of the present application also provide a computer readable storage medium for implementing all the steps of the method for determining the fire simulation result of the above-mentioned embodiments, the computer readable storage medium storing a computer program, the computer program being executed by a processor to implement all the steps of the method for determining the fire simulation result of the above-mentioned embodiments, for example, the steps of:

[0232] determine the leakage aperture of each leakage unit according to the leakage unit division result and the leakage source statistical result of the crude oil tank farm device;

[0233] determine at least one leakage type of each leakage unit according to the leakage aperture of each leakage unit and a preset corresponding relationship between the leakage aperture and the leakage type;

[0234] determine the immediate ignition probability of each leakage type according to the material attribute, the leakage rate and the release amount of each leakage unit obtained, and a preset corresponding relationship between the material attribute category of each combustible substance, the leakage rate and the release amount of each leakage unit and the preset leakage type in the preset database;

[0235] calculate the fire occurrence frequency according to the immediate ignition probability of each leakage unit;

[0236] establish a three-dimensional fire simulation model according to the device arrangement information and the size parameter information, the environmental information and the obstacle information of the crude oil tank farm obtained in advance;

[0237] determine the fire type of each leakage unit according to the device parameter and the material attribute and the process parameter of each leakage unit;

[0238] input the influence parameter corresponding to each fire type of each leakage unit into the preset three-dimensional fire simulation model to obtain the fire simulation result of each leakage type of each leakage unit; the influence parameter of each leakage unit comprises one or more of the pressure, the temperature, the material inventory, the leakage position, the leakage height, the leakage aperture, the leakage direction, the environmental wind direction and the environmental wind speed.

[0239] Although the present application provides the method operation steps as described in the embodiments or flowcharts, more or less operation steps can be included based on conventional or non-inventive labor. The step sequence listed in the embodiments is only one of the many step execution sequences, and does not represent the only execution sequence. When the device or client product is executed in practice, the method sequence shown in the embodiments or the drawings can be executed in sequence or in parallel (for example, in a parallel processor or multi-thread processing environment).

[0240] Those skilled in the art should understand that the embodiments of the present application can be provided as a method, a system, or a computer program product. Therefore, the present application can take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Moreover, the present application can take the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0241] The computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer-implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart block or blocks. Figure 1 one or more flow or blocks Figure 1 means for functionally implementing the steps in the flowchart block or blocks

[0242] These computer program instructions can also be stored in a computer readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instructions which implement the function specified in the flowchart block or blocks. Figure 1 one or more flow or blocks Figure 1 means for functionally implementing the steps in the flowchart block or blocks

[0243] The computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer-implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart block or blocks. Figure 1 one or more flow or blocks Figure 1 means for functionally implementing the steps in the flowchart block or blocks

[0244] Each of the embodiments in the present specification is described in a progressive manner, and the same or similar parts between each embodiment can be mutually referred to, and each embodiment focuses on the difference from other embodiments. In particular, for the system embodiment, since it is basically similar to the method embodiment, the description is relatively simple, and the relevant parts can be referred to the part of the method embodiment.

[0245] In this document, relational terms such as first and second and the like can be used solely to distinguish one entity or action from another entity or action without necessarily requiring or implying any actual such relationship or order between such entities or actions. Also, the terms "comprises", "comprising", or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but can include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus. The terms "upper", "lower", and the like are used only to reflect the orientation of the figures as shown in the drawings and are not intended to denote or imply specific orientations of the device or element unless otherwise specified. Thus, the terms "upper", "lower", and the like are used only to reflect the orientation of the figures as shown in the drawings and are not intended to denote or imply specific orientations of the device or element unless otherwise specified.

[0246] Unless otherwise defined, the terms "mount", "connected", "connecting", and "linking" are to be construed broadly and can be a fixed or detachable connection, or an integral connection; can be a mechanical connection, or an electrical connection; can be a direct connection, or an indirect connection via an intermediate medium; can be a communication between the internal elements. Those skilled in the art can understand the specific meaning of the above terms in the present application according to the specific circumstances.

[0247] It should be noted that the embodiments in the present application and the features in the embodiments can be combined with each other without conflict. The present application is not limited to any single aspect or embodiment, and is not limited to any single combination and / or permutation of aspects and / or embodiments. Each aspect and embodiment of the present application can be used alone or in combination with one or more other aspects and embodiments.

[0248] Finally, it should be noted that the above-described embodiments are merely specific implementations of the present application, used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present application, and are not intended to limit the present application. The protection scope of the present application is not limited to this, and although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that any person skilled in the art can make modifications or easily think of changes to the technical solutions recorded in the foregoing embodiments within the technical scope disclosed by the present application, or make equivalent replacements to some of the technical features; and these modifications, changes or replacements do not cause the corresponding technical solutions to deviate from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application, and should be covered within the protection scope of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present application should be subject to the protection scope of the claims.

Claims

1. A method for determining fire simulation results, characterized in that, include: Based on the predetermined results of the leakage unit division and leakage source statistics of the crude oil tank area, the leakage orifice diameter of each leakage unit is determined; Based on the leakage orifice diameter of each leakage unit and the preset correspondence between leakage orifice diameter and leakage type, at least one leakage type of each leakage unit is determined; Based on the material properties, leakage rate and release amount of each leak unit, as well as the correspondence between the flammable substance property categories, leakage rate and release amount of each leak unit and the preset leakage type in the preset database, the immediate ignition probability of each leakage type is determined. The fire occurrence frequency is calculated based on the immediate ignition probability of each leaking unit. Based on the pre-acquired equipment layout and dimensional parameters, environmental information and obstacle information of the crude oil tank area, a three-dimensional fire simulation model is established; Based on the device parameters, material properties, and process parameters of each leakage unit, determine the fire type of each leakage unit; The influence parameters corresponding to each fire type of each leakage unit are input into a preset three-dimensional fire simulation model to obtain the fire simulation results of different leakage types of each leakage unit; the influence parameters of the leakage unit include one or more of the following: pressure, temperature, material inventory, leakage location, leakage height, leakage orifice diameter, leakage direction, ambient wind direction, and ambient wind speed; It also includes calculating the leakage frequency when the leakage orifice diameter of a leakage unit is larger than a preset leakage orifice diameter, based on the predetermined leakage unit division results and leakage source statistics of the crude oil tank area equipment, using the following formula: ； Where F(d) represents the leakage frequency when the orifice diameter is larger than d, C represents a constant representing the orifice diameter distribution law, m represents a constant representing the orifice diameter distribution law, a represents a constant representing different equipment types, and n represents a constant representing different equipment types. rup The value represents the equipment rupture frequency, D represents the equipment diameter or the diameter of the equipment inlet pipe, and d represents the preset leakage hole diameter.

2. The method for determining fire simulation results as described in claim 1, characterized in that, It also includes determining the leakage rate of each leakage unit in the following manner: The leakage rate of each leakage unit is calculated based on the leakage location, pressure, and leakage orifice diameter.

3. The method for determining fire simulation results as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The fire type of the leakage unit includes pool fire and / or jet fire; determining the fire type of each leakage unit based on the device parameters, material properties, and process parameters of each leakage unit includes: Based on the obtained information on the storage tanks, material properties, and / or process conditions of each leak unit, the fire type of each leak unit is determined to be either pool fire or jet fire.

4. The method for determining fire simulation results as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The step of inputting the influence parameters corresponding to each fire type of each leakage unit into the three-dimensional fire simulation model to obtain the fire simulation results of different leakage types for each leakage unit includes: Based on the fire type of each leakage unit, the range of influence parameters corresponding to different leakage types of each leakage unit is determined, and multiple fire simulation results of different leakage types of each leakage unit are obtained when the corresponding influence parameter values ​​are different.

5. The method for determining fire simulation results as described in claim 4, characterized in that, The process involves determining the range of influence parameters corresponding to different leakage types for each leakage unit based on the fire type of each leakage unit, and obtaining multiple fire simulation results for different leakage types of each leakage unit when the corresponding influence parameter values ​​are different, including: Determine the different fire types in each leaking unit; If the fire type of the leaking unit is pool fire, determine the parameter range of leakage aperture, leakage location, wind direction and wind speed corresponding to different leakage types of each leaking unit to obtain multiple sets of leakage parameters; input each set of leakage parameters under each different leakage type into the three-dimensional fire simulation model to obtain multiple fire simulation results corresponding to each leakage type of the leaking unit; If the fire type of the leaking unit is jet fire, determine the parameter range of leakage aperture, leakage location, leakage direction, wind direction and wind speed corresponding to different leakage types of each leaking unit to obtain multiple sets of leakage parameters; input each set of leakage parameters under each different leakage type into the three-dimensional fire simulation model to obtain multiple fire simulation results corresponding to each leakage type of the leaking unit.

6. The method for determining fire simulation results as described in claim 1, characterized in that, Based on the leakage type of each leakage unit and the preset correspondence between leakage type and leakage shutdown time, the leakage shutdown time corresponding to each leakage type of each leakage unit is determined.

7. A fire risk assessment method, characterized in that, The fire simulation results corresponding to each leakage type of different leakage units, determined using the method for determining fire simulation results as described in any one of claims 1-6.

8. The fire risk assessment method as described in claim 7, characterized in that, Also includes: Based on the fire simulation results corresponding to each leakage type of the different leakage units, the fire impact range is determined; Based on the determined fire impact area, the risk assessment results for target objects within the fire impact area are determined using the following methods: The frequency of fire events for each leakage type in different leakage units can be calculated using the following formula: ； Among them, ET8 i Indicates the frequency of fire incidents; ET1 LOC Indicates the leakage frequency of the leakage element; ET2 Directi Indicates the immediate ignition probability of the leaking element; ET3 Delayi Indicates the delayed ignition probability of the leaking element; ET4 VCE Indicates the probability of a vapor cloud explosion occurring in the leaking unit; ET5 winddir This indicates wind direction and frequency distribution in each direction; ET6 windspeed This indicates the different wind speeds and their possible frequency distributions under various wind direction conditions; ET11 i This indicates the mortality rate caused by different levels of heat radiation. The risk of the final fire event for each type of leak in different leak units is calculated using the following formula; ； Among them, LSIR i The risk of the final fire event of the i-th leakage type for different leakage units is indicated; wherein the final fire event includes at least one of: pool fire, jet fire, vapor cloud explosion, flash fire, and non-impact diffusion event. Based on the risk of the final fire event for each type of leakage in different leakage units as described below, the risk of each leakage type to the target object in different leakage units is calculated; Based on the risk of each leakage type of different leakage units to the target object, the risk values ​​of all leakage types of different leakage units to the target object are calculated.

9. The application of the fire simulation results corresponding to each leakage type of different leakage units determined by the method for determining fire simulation results as described in any one of claims 1-6 in the fire risk assessment method.

10. A device for determining the results of a fire simulation, characterized in that, include: The first determining module is used to determine the leakage aperture of each leakage unit based on the pre-determined leakage unit division results and leakage source statistics of the crude oil tank area equipment; The second determining module is used to determine at least one leakage type of each leakage unit based on the leakage orifice diameter of each leakage unit and a preset correspondence between leakage orifice diameter and leakage type. The third determining module is used to determine the immediate ignition probability of each leakage type based on the material properties, leakage rate and release amount of each leakage unit obtained, as well as the correspondence between the flammable substance property categories, leakage rate and release amount of each leakage unit and the preset leakage type in the preset database. The calculation module is used to calculate the fire occurrence frequency based on the immediate ignition probability of each leakage unit; The model building module is used to build a three-dimensional fire simulation model based on the pre-acquired equipment layout and dimensional parameters, environmental information and obstacle information of the crude oil tank area; The fourth determination module is used to determine the fire type of each leakage unit based on the device parameters, material properties, and process parameters of each leakage unit. The simulation module is used to input the influence parameters corresponding to each fire type of each leakage unit into the three-dimensional fire simulation model to obtain the fire simulation results of different leakage types for each leakage unit. The influence parameters of the leakage unit include one or more of the following: pressure, temperature, material inventory, leakage location, leakage height, leakage orifice diameter, leakage direction, ambient wind direction, and ambient wind speed. Based on the predetermined leakage unit division results and leakage source statistics of the crude oil tank area, the leakage frequency when the leakage orifice diameter of the leakage unit is larger than the preset leakage orifice diameter is calculated by the following formula: ； Where F(d) represents the leakage frequency when the orifice diameter is larger than d, C represents a constant representing the orifice diameter distribution law, m represents a constant representing the orifice diameter distribution law, a represents a constant representing different equipment types, and n represents a constant representing different equipment types. rup The value represents the equipment rupture frequency, D represents the equipment diameter or the diameter of the equipment inlet pipe, and d represents the preset leakage hole diameter.

11. A computer device, comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that, When the processor executes the computer program, it implements the method for determining the fire simulation results as described in any one of claims 1-6.

12. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, The computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program that performs the method for determining the results of a fire simulation as described in any one of claims 1-6.

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