A Socioeconomic Drought Assessment Method

Abstract

The present application relates to a socioeconomic drought assessment method, comprising the steps of: obtaining water supply and water demand, calculating a monthly supply-demand ratio based on the water supply and the water demand; establishing a time-series water shortage index model according to the monthly supply-demand ratio; calculating a monthly time-series water shortage index according to the time-series water shortage index model; determining a socioeconomic drought event according to the monthly time-series water shortage index, and determining the duration and drought intensity of the socioeconomic drought event. The socioeconomic drought assessment method of the present application provides a dynamic analysis of the socioeconomic drought situation from a temporal dimension, comprehensively assesses the persistence and cumulative effects of socioeconomic drought events from a temporal perspective, and quickly identifies socioeconomic drought events and drought intensity, providing an assessment tool for quickly assessing water shortages in rapidly developing economies, and providing a decision-making basis for comprehensively assessing the impact of climate change and water infrastructure on water resource management.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of drought monitoring and evaluation, and in particular to a socio-economic drought assessment method. Background Art

[0002] Drought is a complex and ubiquitous natural phenomenon that may have far-reaching impacts on humans, animals, plants and even the entire ecosystem. Drought can be divided into meteorological drought, agricultural drought, hydrological drought and socioeconomic drought. Socioeconomic drought is caused by the failure of water supply to meet water demand, thus causing damage to human society, economy and environment. Compared with the other three types of drought, socioeconomic drought is more closely related to human society. With the rapid development of cities and industries, regional water supply cannot meet their water demand, so socioeconomic drought has become a concern in many regions. Socioeconomic drought is closely related to hydrological drought and / or agricultural drought, and the mismatch between water supply and demand is also classified as socioeconomic drought. Drought index, as an important tool for measuring drought, has developed many different indicators to characterize various types of drought. In recent years, research on socioeconomic drought has increased, and some socioeconomic drought indices for this type have been proposed. However, the socioeconomic drought assessment method in the prior art is limited to judging whether there is a drought event and the drought level, and cannot comprehensively assess the duration of drought from a time scale, nor can it be used as a general assessment tool.

[0003] Therefore, the prior art still needs to be improved and developed. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the above-mentioned deficiencies in the prior art, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a socioeconomic drought assessment method, which provides a dynamic understanding of the socioeconomic drought situation from a time dimension, comprehensively assesses the persistence and cumulative effects of socioeconomic drought events from a time series perspective, and quickly identifies socioeconomic drought events and event attributes, providing an assessment tool for quickly assessing water resource shortages in rapidly developing economies, and providing a decision-making basis for decision makers to comprehensively assess the impact of climate change and water infrastructure on water resource management.

[0005] The present application provides a socio-economic drought assessment method, comprising the steps of:

[0006] Obtaining water supply and water demand, and calculating a monthly supply-demand ratio based on the water supply and the water demand;

[0007] Establishing a time-series water shortage index model based on the monthly supply-demand ratio;

[0008] Calculating a monthly time-series water shortage index according to the time-series water shortage index model;

[0009] A socioeconomic drought event is determined according to the monthly time-series water shortage index, and the duration and drought severity of the socioeconomic drought event are determined.

[0010] Specifically, the obtaining of water supply and water demand, and calculating the monthly supply-demand ratio based on the water supply and the water demand comprises the following steps:

[0011] Acquiring regional water supply data, wherein the regional water supply data includes river water supply, groundwater supply and conventional inter-basin water transfer;

[0012] Calculating the water supply amount, where the water supply amount is the sum of the water supply data;

[0013] Acquire regional runoff data, and establish a runoff data model according to the regional runoff data;

[0014] Calculating the water demand based on the regional runoff data model;

[0015] The water supply is divided by the monthly supply-demand ratio of the water demand calculation area.

[0016] Specifically, the regional runoff data model is based on a five-stage water demand model, and the calculation of the water demand includes calculating the minimum water demand, and the minimum water demand includes the minimum flow to maintain river water quality standards, the minimum flow to maintain river ecological standards, the minimum flow to meet river navigation conditions, the minimum flow to prevent saltwater tides from going upstream, and the flow that needs to be captured from the river channel to meet economic development needs.

[0017] Specifically, the establishment of a time-series water shortage index model according to the monthly supply-demand ratio includes the following steps:

[0018] The monthly water supply shortage index is obtained by logarithmically transforming the monthly supply-demand ratio;

[0019] Substituting the monthly water shortage index into the generalized additive model, the time-series water shortage index model is established.

[0020] Specifically, the calculation formula of the monthly water supply shortage index Rct is:

[0021]

[0022] Where t represents time, CTA t Represents the monthly supply-demand ratio, AW t represents the monthly water supply, f t (·) represents the five-stage water demand model, and MWR represents the minimum water demand after conversion.

[0023] Specifically, the time series water shortage index model is:

[0024]

[0025] TWSI stands for Time-series Water Stress Index, i stands for the current month, n stands for the minimum impact time of water shortage, and a i Represents the monthly water shortage index Rc i The corresponding coefficient, δ, represents the additional factors affecting water supply in different regions.

[0026] Specifically, the calculating of the monthly time-series water shortage index according to the time-series water shortage index model comprises the following steps:

[0027] Calculate a modified socioeconomic drought index based on historical data;

[0028] Determine the coefficients of each item in the time-series water shortage index model by using the improved socio-economic drought index;

[0029] The monthly time-series water shortage index is calculated according to the optimal coefficient.

[0030] Specifically, the calculation of the improved socioeconomic drought index includes:

[0031] Calculate the accumulated water shortage based on the historical data;

[0032] detecting socioeconomic water stress events based on said cumulative water stress;

[0033] Calculate the duration of the socioeconomic water stress event;

[0034] The improved socio-economic drought index is calculated according to the cumulative water shortage and the duration. The calculation formula of the improved socio-economic drought index is:

[0035]

[0036] Where ISEDI represents the improved socioeconomic drought index, H(x,y) represents the joint distribution probability value of the characteristics of socioeconomic water shortage events, Represents the inverse of the standard normal distribution.

[0037] Specifically, the restriction conditions for determining the coefficients of each item in the time-series water shortage index by using the improved socio-economic drought index are:

[0038]

[0039]

[0040] Among them, Qm is the minimum flow of measured data, Qo is the flow converted from the operating water storage capacity of the target area control reservoir under normal conditions, and the optimal coefficient a of each value is obtained. i (i=1, 2, 3).

[0041] A second aspect of the present application is to provide a device for socioeconomic drought assessment, the device comprising:

[0042] A data acquisition and preprocessing module, used to acquire water supply and water demand, and calculate a monthly supply-demand ratio based on the water supply and the water demand;

[0043] A modeling module, for establishing a time-series water shortage index model according to the monthly supply-demand ratio;

[0044] A calculation module, used for calculating a monthly time-series water shortage index according to the time-series water shortage index model;

[0045] An evaluation module is used to determine a socio-economic drought event according to the monthly time-series water shortage index, and to determine the duration and drought severity of the socio-economic drought event.

[0046] The present application provides an intelligent terminal, comprising a memory and one or more programs, wherein the one or more programs are stored in the memory and are configured to be executed by one or more processors to perform the following method:

[0047] Obtaining water supply and water demand, and calculating a monthly supply-demand ratio based on the water supply and the water demand;

[0048] Establishing a time-series water shortage index model based on the monthly supply-demand ratio;

[0049] Calculating a monthly time-series water shortage index according to the time-series water shortage index model;

[0050] The socio-economic drought event is determined according to the monthly time-series water shortage index, and the duration and drought intensity of the socio-economic drought event are determined according to the process theory.

[0051] The present invention mainly has the following beneficial effects: The present application provides a socio-economic drought assessment method, comprising the steps of: calculating a monthly supply-demand ratio (CTA); establishing a time-series water shortage index (TWSI) model based on the monthly supply-demand ratio (CTA); calculating a monthly time-series water shortage index based on the time-series water shortage index (TWSI) model; determining the month, duration and event attributes of the socio-economic drought event based on the monthly time-series water shortage index, and dividing the drought intensity. The socio-economic drought assessment method of the present application provides a dynamic analysis of the socio-economic drought situation from a time dimension, comprehensively assesses the persistence and cumulative effects of socio-economic drought events from a time series perspective, and quickly identifies socio-economic drought events and drought intensity, providing an assessment tool for quickly assessing water shortages in rapidly developing economies, and providing a decision-making basis for decision makers to comprehensively assess the impact of climate change and water infrastructure on water resource management. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0052] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present application or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present application. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0053] Figure 1 A schematic flow chart of a socio-economic drought assessment method according to an embodiment of the present application.

[0054] Figure 2 A schematic flow chart of a socio-economic drought assessment method according to an embodiment of the present application.

[0055] Figure 3 This is a graph of monthly TWSI changes in a certain region in 2004 obtained through a socioeconomic drought assessment method of this application.

[0056] Figure 4 This is a monthly TWSI change chart for a certain region from 2000 to 2018 obtained through a socioeconomic drought assessment method of the present application.

[0057] Figure 5 Schematic diagram of a socio-economic drought assessment device according to an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0058] The following will be combined with the implementation methods of this application to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the implementation methods of this application. Obviously, the described implementation methods are only part of the implementation methods of this application, not all of the implementation methods. Based on the implementation methods in this application, all other implementation methods obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0059] It should be understood that the terms used in this specification of the embodiments of the present application are only for the purpose of describing specific embodiments and are not intended to limit the embodiments of the present application. As used in the specification of the embodiments of the present application and the appended claims, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise, the singular forms of "a", "an" and "the" are intended to include plural forms.

[0060] In the following description, many specific details are set forth to facilitate a full understanding of the present invention, but the present invention may also be implemented in other ways different from those described herein, and those skilled in the art may make similar generalizations without violating the connotation of the present invention. Therefore, the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments disclosed below.

[0061] This application provides a socio-economic drought assessment method, such as Figure 1 and Figure 2 , which is a flow chart of a socio-economic drought assessment method according to an embodiment of the present application, comprising the steps of: S1, obtaining water supply and water demand, and calculating a monthly supply-demand ratio based on the water supply and the water demand;

[0062] Specifically, step S1 includes the following steps:

[0063] S11, obtaining regional water supply data, wherein the regional water supply data includes river water supply, groundwater supply and conventional inter-basin water transfer;

[0064] S12, calculating the water supply amount, where the water supply amount is the sum of the water supply data;

[0065] S13, acquiring regional runoff data, and establishing a runoff data model according to the regional runoff data;

[0066] S14, calculating the water demand based on the regional runoff data model;

[0067] S15. Calculate the monthly supply-demand ratio of a certain area by dividing the water supply by the water demand.

[0068] Specifically, a region is generally selected for calculation, and the calculation formula for the water supply in the region is:

[0069] AW t =W1+W2+W3, (1)

[0070] Where t represents time, regional water supply AW t is the regular available water supply of the region in month t, including river water supply (W1), groundwater supply (W2) and regular inter-basin water transfer (W3)

[0071] Specifically, the regional runoff data model is based on a five-stage water demand model, and the calculation of the water demand includes calculating the minimum water demand, and the minimum water demand includes the minimum flow to maintain river water quality standards, the minimum flow to maintain river ecological standards, the minimum flow to meet river navigation conditions, the minimum flow to prevent saltwater tides from going upstream, and the flow that needs to be captured from the river channel to meet economic development needs.

[0072] Specifically, the five-stage water demand model is used to calculate the regional water demand WD t , the calculation formula is:

[0073] WD t =f t (MWR), (2)

[0074] Among them, f t (·) represents the five-stage water demand model, and MWR is the minimum water demand after conversion. The five-stage water demand model divides the economic development and water use in different regions into stages, and obtains the correlation between water use and economic development at different stages, so that the regional water demand can be calculated based on the economic development.

[0075] Specifically, the monthly supply-demand ratio CTA is calculated using regional water supply and regional water demand. t , the calculation formula is:

[0076]

[0077] Specifically, the monthly supply-demand ratio CTA t is the monthly consumption to availability ratio (CTA) of regional water resources, t represents time, such as t = 5, CTA5 represents the monthly consumption to availability ratio in May.

[0078] Specifically, the calculation formula of the minimum water requirement MWR is:

[0079] MWR=max{Q1,Q2,Q3,Q4}+Q S , (4)

[0080] Among them, Q1 is the minimum flow rate to maintain river water quality standards, Q2 is the minimum flow rate to maintain river ecological standards, Q3 is the minimum flow rate to meet river navigation conditions, Q4 is the minimum flow rate to prevent saltwater tides from going upstream, and QS It is the flow that needs to be captured from the river to meet the needs of economic development.

[0081] The present application provides a socio-economic drought assessment method, further comprising step S2, establishing a temporal water scarcity index model according to the monthly supply-demand ratio. The Temporary Water Scarcity Index (TWSI) model is used to assess the duration and severity of socio-economic drought events from a temporal perspective.

[0082] Specifically, step S2 includes the following steps:

[0083] S21, performing logarithmic transformation on the monthly supply-demand ratio to obtain a monthly water shortage index;

[0084] S22. Substituting the monthly water shortage index into the generalized additive model to establish the time-series water shortage index model.

[0085] Specifically, the monthly water shortage index Rc t The calculation formula is:

[0086]

[0087] When Rc t When it is less than 0, it indicates that the water supply required for economic development in that month is insufficient; when Rc t When it is greater than or equal to 0, it means that the water supply required for economic development in that month is sufficient. Short-term and minor water shortages will not affect economic development.

[0088] Specifically, the socioeconomic water supply system of a region has a certain robustness. Therefore, in order to express this robustness and fully reflect the socioeconomic drought situation, the time series water shortage index (TWSI) uses the Rc of the minimum impact time n of regional water shortage t The sum of the values ​​is used to represent the socioeconomic drought situation of the month. The time series water shortage index (TWSI) model is:

[0089]

[0090] Among them, i represents the current month, n represents the minimum impact time of water shortage, a i Represents the Rc of each month i The coefficient corresponding to the value of δ represents the additional factors affecting water supply in different regions. Due to the characteristics of socioeconomic drought, that is, when a region has insufficient water supply for a short period of time, socioeconomic drought will not occur, and water shortage lasting at least 3 months will affect the economy. Therefore, the number of items in TWSI is set to n = 3.

[0091] The present application provides a socio-economic drought assessment method, further comprising step S3, calculating a monthly time-series water shortage index according to the time-series water shortage index (TWSI) model.

[0092] Specifically, step S3 includes the following steps:

[0093] S31. Calculate the Improved Socioeconomic Drought Index (ISEDI) based on historical data;

[0094] S32, determining the coefficients of each item in the time-series water shortage index model by using the improved socio-economic drought index;

[0095] S33. Calculate the monthly time-series water shortage index according to the optimal coefficient.

[0096] Specifically, in a given area, by comparing the monthly flow data of historical measured data with the monthly regional water consumption data, it is determined whether there is water shortage in that month. Specifically, the difference between the monthly flow and the monthly water consumption is calculated to determine whether there is water shortage in that month. If the difference is negative, the month is a water shortage month; if the difference is positive, the month is not a water shortage month. One or several consecutive months of water shortage are defined as socioeconomic water shortage events.

[0097] Specifically, step S31, calculating the improved socio-economic drought index (ISEDI) based on historical data, comprises the following steps:

[0098] S311, calculating the cumulative water shortage according to the historical data;

[0099] S312, detecting a socio-economic water shortage event according to the accumulated water shortage amount;

[0100] S313, calculating the duration of the socioeconomic water shortage event;

[0101] S314. Calculate the Improved Socio-Economic Drought Index (ISEDI) value according to the cumulative water shortage and the duration.

[0102] The duration of socioeconomic water stress events (i.e., consecutive dry months) and their severity (i.e., the worst cumulative water stress during the drought) were determined from the cumulative water stress caused by the monthly water stress. Socioeconomic water stress events continued until the cumulative water stress was no longer negative. Subsequently, for each detected socioeconomic water stress event, its Improved Socioeconomic Drought Index (ISEDI) value was calculated by integrating the effects of water stress and duration. The Improved Socioeconomic Drought Index incorporates the basin resilience, Copula model, and the Socioeconomic Drought Index.

[0103] Specifically, the basin elastic recovery capacity is calculated using historical measured data (accumulated water shortage). The specific formula is as follows:

[0104] AWD t =AWD t-1 ×WRSRI+D t , (7)

[0105] Where WRSRI stands for Watershed Resilience Recovery Index, D t Represents the difference between the current river runoff and the minimum water demand in the river, AWD t-1 Represents the accumulated water shortage in the previous period, AWD t It represents the accumulated water shortage in the current time period. Preferably, the water shortage in each month and the accumulated water shortage in the previous months can be calculated in months.

[0106] Specifically, based on the resilience of the watershed, the Copula function is used to model socioeconomic water shortage events:

[0107] H(x,y)=C(F(x),G(y)), (8)

[0108] Where H(x,y) represents the joint distribution probability value of the characteristics of socioeconomic water shortage events, F(x) represents the marginal distribution of the duration of socioeconomic water shortage events, G(y) represents the marginal distribution of the intensity of socioeconomic water shortage events, and C(·) represents the Copula function.

[0109] Specifically, the Copula function value of each month of the socioeconomic water shortage event is calculated by joint probability to obtain the improved socioeconomic drought index (ISEDI), including:

[0110]

[0111] Among them, H(x,y) represents the joint distribution probability value of the characteristics of socio-economic water shortage events, It represents the inverse distribution of the standard normal distribution. The improved socioeconomic drought index (ISEDI) characterizes the socioeconomic water shortage situation. Then the time series water shortage index needs to be further determined through the socioeconomic water shortage situation.

[0112] Specifically, step S32, determining the coefficients of each item in the time-series water shortage index model through the improved socio-economic drought index (ISEDI), includes determining the coefficients of each item in the time-series water shortage index through the improved socio-economic drought index ISEDI and calculating the monthly time-series water shortage index.

[0113] Specifically, the optimal coefficient is found according to the gradient descent method, and the search is conducted in the range of 0 to 3 under the guidance of the loss function. The restriction condition for determining the coefficients of each item in the time series water shortage index (TWSI) by the improved socioeconomic drought index is:

[0114]

[0115]

[0116] Among them, Qm is the minimum flow rate of measured data, Qo is the flow rate converted from the operating water storage capacity of the target area control reservoir under normal conditions, and a i (i=1, 2, 3) is the best coefficient of each value obtained. Specifically, the coefficient represents the contribution of the water shortage value to the socio-economic drought event.

[0117] The present application provides a socio-economic drought assessment method, further comprising step S4, determining the month, duration and event attributes of the socio-economic drought event according to the monthly time-series water shortage index, and classifying the drought level. Preferably, the socio-economic drought event is extracted in combination with the run theory to determine the drought event attributes. The drought event attributes are represented by the drought severity.

[0118] Specifically, the socioeconomic drought months are determined according to the time-series water shortage index, and the socioeconomic drought events are extracted in combination with the travel theory to determine the attributes of the socioeconomic drought events, and the socioeconomic drought intensity is divided according to the attributes of the socioeconomic drought events.

[0119] Specifically, when TWSI is less than 0, it means that there is a socioeconomic drought event in the month, as shown in Table 1, which is the TWSI value and the drought intensity (drought level) of the corresponding socioeconomic drought event. When TWSI is greater than 0, it is considered that there is no socioeconomic drought event in the month; when TWSI is between -0.5 and 0, the month is considered to be mild drought; when TWSI is between -0.5 and 0, the month is considered to be mild drought; when TWSI is between -1 and -0.5, the month is considered to be moderate drought; when TWSI is between -2 and -1, the month is considered to be severe drought; when TWSI is less than -2, the month is considered to be extremely drought.

[0120] Table 1

[0121] TWSI value Drought severity of socioeconomic drought events ≥0 Non-drought -0.5～0 Mild drought -1～-0.5 Moderate drought -2～-1 Severe drought ≤-2 Extreme drought

[0122] This program innovatively proposes a socioeconomic drought assessment method, which provides a dynamic understanding of the socioeconomic drought situation from a temporal dimension, comprehensively assesses the persistence and cumulative effects of socioeconomic drought events from a time series perspective, and quickly identifies socioeconomic drought events and event attributes, providing an assessment tool for rapid assessment of water resource shortages in rapidly developing economies, and providing a basis for decision makers to comprehensively assess the impact of climate change and water infrastructure on water resource management.

[0123] Specifically, the specific processing process of this solution is embodied through embodiments.

[0124] As shown in the following table, these are the monthly water supply, water demand, and ISEWI and TWSI values ​​calculated based on the water supply and demand for a certain area in 2004.

[0125] Table 2

[0126]

[0127]

[0128] The specific processing process is as follows:

[0129] Calculate the monthly water supply and monthly water demand in 2004. The monthly water supply calculation formula is:

[0130] AW t =W1+W2+W3; (1)

[0131] The monthly water demand calculation formula is:

[0132] WD t =f t (MWR); (2)

[0133] Minimum water demand MWR=max{Q1,Q2,Q3,Q4}+Q S ; (4)

[0134] Calculate the monthly supply-demand ratio using the formula:

[0135]

[0136] Perform logarithmic transformation on the monthly supply-demand ratio to obtain the monthly supply-demand ratio (monthly water supply shortage index) series:

[0137]

[0138] Substitute the monthly supply-demand ratio series into the generalized additive model to establish a time-series water shortage index model:

[0139]

[0140] The monthly Improved Socio-Economic Drought Index (ISEDI) value is calculated based on the measured data, including:

[0141] AWD t =AWD t-1 ×WRSRI+D t , (7)

[0142] H(x,y)=C(F(x),G(y)), (8)

[0143]

[0144] The optimal coefficient is calculated based on the monthly Improved Socio-Economic Drought Index (ISEDI) value, with the following constraints:

[0145]

[0146]

[0147] Substitute the optimal coefficient into the time-series water shortage index model to calculate the monthly time-series water shortage index TWSI i , i represents the month.

[0148] In order to facilitate better comparison of TWSI in different regions in the future, Rc i The coefficient is fixed to 1. Based on this, the Rc calculated according to the above optimal coefficient method i-1 The coefficient is 0.3364, Rc i-2 The coefficient is 0.1951. Then the monthly time-series water shortage index TWSI i The specific calculation formula is:

[0149] TWSI i =Rc i +0.3364*Rc i-1 +0.1951*Rc i-2 (12)

[0150] For example, based on the data of a certain area in 2004, i is 3, TWSI3 represents the time-series water shortage index value of the area in March 2004, TWSI3=Rc3+0.3364*Rc2+0.1951*Rc1=-0.711, that is, the time-series water shortage index value in March is -0.711.

[0151] The socioeconomic drought months are determined according to the time-series water shortage index, and the socioeconomic drought events are extracted in combination with the travel theory to determine the attributes of the socioeconomic drought events. The drought intensity of the socioeconomic drought events is then divided according to the attributes of the drought events.

[0152] The calculation results of the time series water shortage index TWSI are as follows: Figure 3 The figure below shows the monthly time series water shortage index (TWSI) change chart of a certain region in 2004. From the chart, we can see the dynamic changes of TWSI, quickly obtain the drought months and duration, and classify the drought intensity. Figure 3 It can be seen that in 2004, there were two socio-economic drought events in the region. The first occurred from January to April and lasted for 4 months. The TWSI from January to March was between -1 and -0.5, which was a moderate drought; the TWSI in April dropped to between -0.5 and 0, which was a mild drought; the second occurred from October to December, and the TWSI in October was between -1 and -0.5, which was a moderate drought; the TWSI from November to December was between -2 and -1, which was a severe drought. It can be seen that the evaluation method of the present application can quickly determine whether a socio-economic drought event has occurred, the duration and the intensity of the drought. The evaluation method of the present application is efficient and dynamic analysis, and is a good evaluation tool.

[0153] The same method can be used to calculate the annual time-series water shortage index. Figure 4 The figure shows the monthly time-series water shortage index (TWSI) change chart of a certain region from 2008 to 2018. The socio-economic drought assessment method of this application combines the time dimension and analyzes the relationship between water shortage and socio-economic drought events from the perspective of water shortage, providing a more comprehensive and dynamic understanding of drought conditions. In addition to measuring the current drought intensity, it also assesses the persistence and cumulative effects of drought events, which is crucial for assessing water shortages in rapidly developing economies. It also maps the complex interactions between economic activities, water use patterns, and drought impacts, providing a key tool for socio-economic drought assessment.

[0154] The present application provides a socioeconomic drought assessment method, comprising the steps of: obtaining water supply and water demand, calculating a monthly supply-demand ratio based on the water supply and the water demand; establishing a time-series water shortage index model according to the monthly supply-demand ratio; calculating a monthly time-series water shortage index according to the time-series water shortage index model; determining a socioeconomic drought event according to the monthly time-series water shortage index, and determining the duration and drought intensity of the socioeconomic drought event. The socioeconomic drought assessment method of the present application provides a dynamic analysis of the socioeconomic drought situation from a temporal dimension, comprehensively assesses the persistence and cumulative effects of socioeconomic drought events from a temporal perspective, and quickly identifies socioeconomic drought events and drought intensity, providing an assessment tool for quickly assessing water shortages in rapidly developing economies, and providing a decision-making basis for decision makers to comprehensively assess the impact of climate change and water infrastructure on water resource management.

[0155] The present application also provides a socio-economic drought assessment device, such as Figure 5 FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of a socio-economic drought assessment device 10 according to an embodiment of the present application, comprising:

[0156] A data acquisition and preprocessing module 101 is used to acquire water supply and water demand, and calculate a monthly supply-demand ratio based on the water supply and the water demand;

[0157] A modeling module 102, for establishing a time-series water shortage index model according to the monthly supply-demand ratio;

[0158] A calculation module 103, used for calculating a monthly time-series water shortage index according to the time-series water shortage index model;

[0159] The evaluation module 104 is used to determine a socio-economic drought event according to the monthly time-series water shortage index, and to determine the duration and drought severity of the socio-economic drought event.

[0160] The present application provides an intelligent terminal, comprising a memory and one or more programs, wherein the one or more programs are stored in the memory and are configured to be executed by one or more processors to perform the following method:

[0161] Obtaining water supply and water demand, and calculating a monthly supply-demand ratio based on the water supply and the water demand;

[0162] Establishing a time-series water shortage index model based on the monthly supply-demand ratio;

[0163] Calculating a monthly time-series water shortage index according to the time-series water shortage index model;

[0164] A socioeconomic drought event is determined according to the monthly time-series water shortage index, and the duration and drought severity of the socioeconomic drought event are determined.

[0165] The embodiments described above are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit the same. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, it should be understood by those skilled in the art that the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments may still be modified, or some of the technical features therein may be replaced by equivalents. However, these modifications or replacements do not deviate from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, and should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A socio-economic drought assessment method, characterized in that: Includes steps: Obtaining a monthly water supply and a monthly water demand, and calculating a monthly supply-demand ratio based on the monthly water supply and the monthly water demand; Establishing a time-series water shortage index model based on the monthly supply-demand ratio; Calculating a monthly time-series water shortage index according to the time-series water shortage index model; Determine a socioeconomic drought event based on the monthly time-series water shortage index, and determine the duration and drought severity of the socioeconomic drought event; Wherein, the time series water shortage index model is: ， in, represents the monthly time-series water shortage index, Indicates the month, Indicates the minimum impact time of water shortage, Indicates the monthly water shortage index The corresponding coefficient, the monthly water shortage index It is determined based on the monthly supply-demand ratio, and δ represents additional factors affecting water supply in different regions; The method of calculating the monthly time-series water shortage index according to the time-series water shortage index model comprises the following steps: Calculate an improved socio-economic drought index based on historical data; Determining the optimal coefficients of each item in the time-series water shortage index model through the improved socio-economic drought index; Calculating the monthly time-series water shortage index according to the optimal coefficient; The calculation of the improved socio-economic drought index includes: Calculate the accumulated water shortage based on the historical data; detecting socioeconomic water stress events based on said cumulative water stress; Calculate the duration of the socioeconomic water stress event; The improved socio-economic drought index is calculated according to the cumulative water shortage and the duration. The calculation formula of the improved socio-economic drought index is: ， in, ISEDI represents the improved socioeconomic drought index, The joint distribution probability value representing the characteristics of socioeconomic water shortage events, (·) represents the inverse distribution of the standard normal distribution, where , represents the marginal distribution of duration of socioeconomic water stress events, x represents the duration of the socioeconomic water stress event, Represents the marginal distribution of the intensity of socioeconomic water shortage events, y Indicates the intensity value of the socio-economic water shortage event, Represents a Copula function; When n=2, the constraint condition for determining the optimal coefficients of each item in the time-series water shortage index model by using the improved socio-economic drought index is: ， ， in, is the minimum flow rate of the measured data, The flow rate is calculated based on the operating water storage capacity of the target area control reservoir under normal conditions. represents a five-stage water demand model, which divides the economic development and water demand of the study area into stages, and obtains the correlation between the water demand and economic development in different stages, and obtains the monthly water demand of the corresponding area based on the correlation. Represents the minimum monthly water demand, and the optimal coefficient is obtained through the above constraints. , , .

2. A socio-economic drought assessment method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step of obtaining the monthly water supply and the monthly water demand, and calculating the monthly supply-demand ratio based on the monthly water supply and the monthly water demand comprises the following steps: Acquiring regional water supply data, wherein the regional water supply data includes river water supply, groundwater supply and conventional inter-basin water transfer; Calculating the monthly water supply, where the monthly water supply is the sum of the monthly water supply data; Acquiring regional runoff data, and establishing a regional runoff data model according to the regional runoff data; Calculating the monthly water demand based on the regional runoff data model; The monthly supply-demand ratio of a certain area is calculated by dividing the monthly water demand by the monthly water supply.

3. A socio-economic drought assessment method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The regional runoff data model is based on a five-stage water demand model. The calculation of the monthly water demand includes calculating the monthly minimum water demand, and the monthly minimum water demand includes the minimum flow to maintain river water quality standards, the minimum flow of the river to maintain river ecological standards, the minimum flow to meet river navigation conditions, the minimum flow to prevent saltwater tides from going upstream, and the flow that needs to be captured from the river channel to meet the needs of economic development.

4. A socio-economic drought assessment method according to claim 3, characterized in that: The method of establishing a time-series water shortage index model according to the monthly supply-demand ratio comprises the following steps: The monthly water supply shortage index is obtained by logarithmically transforming the monthly supply-demand ratio; Substituting the monthly water shortage index into the generalized additive model, the time-series water shortage index model is established.

5. A socio-economic drought assessment method according to claim 4, characterized in that: The monthly water shortage index Rc t The calculation formula is: ， in, t Indicates the month, represents the monthly supply-demand ratio, represents the monthly water supply, represents the five-stage water demand model, Indicates the minimum monthly water requirement.

6. A device for socio-economic drought assessment, characterized in that: include: A data acquisition and preprocessing module, used to acquire monthly water supply and monthly water demand, and calculate a monthly supply-demand ratio based on the monthly water supply and the monthly water demand; A modeling module, for establishing a time-series water shortage index model according to the monthly supply-demand ratio; A calculation module, used for calculating a monthly time-series water shortage index according to the time-series water shortage index model; An evaluation module, for determining a socio-economic drought event according to the monthly time-series water shortage index, and determining the duration and drought severity of the socio-economic drought event; Wherein, the time series water shortage index model is: ， in, represents the monthly time-series water shortage index, Indicates the month, Indicates the minimum impact time of water shortage, Indicates the monthly water shortage index The corresponding coefficient, the monthly water shortage index It is determined based on the monthly supply-demand ratio, and δ represents additional factors affecting water supply in different regions; The method of calculating the monthly time-series water shortage index according to the time-series water shortage index model comprises the following steps: Calculate an improved socio-economic drought index based on historical data; Determining the optimal coefficients of each item in the time-series water shortage index model through the improved socio-economic drought index; Calculating the monthly time-series water shortage index according to the optimal coefficient; The calculation of the improved socio-economic drought index includes: Calculate the accumulated water shortage based on the historical data; detecting socioeconomic water stress events based on said cumulative water stress; Calculate the duration of the socioeconomic water stress event; The improved socio-economic drought index is calculated according to the cumulative water shortage and the duration. The calculation formula of the improved socio-economic drought index is: ， in, ISEDI represents the improved socioeconomic drought index, The joint distribution probability value representing the characteristics of socioeconomic water shortage events, (·) represents the inverse distribution of the standard normal distribution, where , represents the marginal distribution of duration of socioeconomic water stress events, x represents the duration of the socioeconomic water stress event, Represents the marginal distribution of the intensity of socioeconomic water shortage events, y Indicates the intensity value of the socio-economic water shortage event, Represents a Copula function; When n=2, the constraint condition for determining the optimal coefficients of each item in the time-series water shortage index model by using the improved socio-economic drought index is: ， ， in, is the minimum flow rate of the measured data, The flow rate is calculated based on the operating water storage capacity of the target area control reservoir under normal conditions. represents a five-stage water demand model, which divides the economic development and water demand of the study area into stages, and obtains the correlation between the water demand and economic development in different stages, and obtains the monthly water demand of the corresponding area based on the correlation. Represents the minimum monthly water demand, and the optimal coefficient is obtained through the above constraints. , , .

Images