A method, device, equipment and medium for analyzing the failure disaster chain of a gas transmission pipeline

Abstract

The present application discloses a method, device, equipment and medium for analyzing the failure disaster chain of a gas transmission pipeline, which relates to the technical field of gas transmission pipeline analysis, and includes: when a failure disaster of a natural gas transmission pipeline occurs, all disaster events of the current natural gas transmission pipeline are used as nodes in the network, and the inducing factors between the disaster events are used as directed edges in the network, and a disaster chain network is constructed according to the nodes and directed edges; calculating topological structure parameters including in-degree, out-degree, total degree value, and clustering coefficient in the disaster chain network, and determining the evolution mechanism of the risk propagation of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas transmission pipeline based on the topological structure parameters; calculating the risk degree of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas transmission pipeline based on the disaster-causing rate, loss degree, and directed edge vulnerability of the disaster chain network; analyzing the current natural gas transmission pipeline according to the evolution mechanism of the risk propagation of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas transmission pipeline and the risk degree of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas transmission pipeline.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of gas pipeline analysis, and particularly to a method, device, equipment and medium for analyzing a failure disaster chain of a gas pipeline. Background Technique

[0002] In recent years, with the continuous acceleration of the urbanization process, the urban gas industry, industry, transportation, power generation and other fields have also shown a high-speed development trend. Under this background, the demand and utilization rate of natural gas also show an increasing trend. Therefore, the safe operation of natural gas pipelines is of great significance for meeting the growing gas demand.

[0003] However, during the normal operation of natural gas pipelines, due to the complexity and instability of the environment and the particularity of the transported medium, etc., natural gas is extremely likely to cause risks such as pipeline fracture during transportation, and consequences such as natural gas leakage, explosion, and fire. Therefore, systematic analysis of the failure disaster chain of natural gas pipelines can provide scientific theoretical support and basis for pipeline management departments to formulate corresponding plans and emergency measures.

[0004] At present, the research on gas pipelines mainly focuses on the operating legal norms of pipelines, the causes of pipeline corrosion, the prediction of pipeline failure consequences, etc. However, there is still a large gap in the systematic research on the analysis of the failure disaster chain of gas pipelines.

[0005] In summary, how to analyze the failure disaster chain of gas pipelines from a systematic perspective, starting from the secondary and derivative disaster events caused by pipeline failure, study its internal evolution and propagation mechanism, formulate corresponding emergency management measures, and then specifically reduce the losses and consequences caused by disasters after gas pipeline failure is a technical problem to be solved in this field. Summary of the Invention

[0006] In view of this, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a method, device, equipment and medium for analyzing a failure disaster chain of a gas pipeline, which can realize the analysis of the failure disaster chain of a gas pipeline from a systematic perspective, starting from the secondary and derivative disaster events caused by pipeline failure, study its internal evolution and propagation mechanism, formulate corresponding emergency management measures, and then specifically reduce the losses and consequences caused by disasters after gas pipeline failure. The specific solutions are as follows:

[0007] In a first aspect, the present application discloses a method for analyzing a failure disaster chain of a gas pipeline, including:

[0008] When a failure disaster of a natural gas pipeline occurs, all disaster events of the current natural gas pipeline are used as nodes in the network, and the inducing factors between the disaster events are used as directed edges in the network, so as to construct a disaster chain network according to all the nodes and all the directed edges;

[0009] Calculate the topological structure parameters including in-degree, out-degree, total degree value, and clustering coefficient in the disaster chain network, so as to determine the evolution mechanism of the risk propagation of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas pipeline based on the topological structure parameters;

[0010] Calculate the risk degree of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas pipeline based on the disaster-causing rate, loss degree, and directed edge vulnerability of the disaster chain network;

[0011] Analyze the current natural gas pipeline according to the evolution mechanism of the risk propagation of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas pipeline and the risk degree of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas pipeline.

[0012] Optionally, taking all the disaster events of the current natural gas pipeline as nodes in the network and the inducing factors between the disaster events as directed edges in the network, to construct a disaster chain network according to all the nodes and all the directed edges, includes:

[0013] Identify the first disaster event caused by the disaster-causing environment where the current natural gas pipeline is located, the second disaster event caused by the disaster-causing factors, the third disaster event caused by the bearing body, and the fourth disaster event caused by the disaster situation respectively, and take the first disaster event, the second disaster event, the third disaster event, and the fourth disaster event as nodes in the network;

[0014] Judge whether there is a causal relationship or a conduction relationship between any two of the first disaster event, the second disaster event, the third disaster event, and the fourth disaster event;

[0015] If there is, connect the corresponding disaster events in a directed connection manner to obtain the directed edges in the network;

[0016] Construct a disaster chain network based on the source disaster node event which is the failure disaster event of the current natural gas pipeline, all the nodes, all the directed edges, and the terminal disaster node event which is the disaster damage caused by the failure disaster event of the current natural gas pipeline.

[0017] Optionally, before constructing a disaster chain network based on the source disaster node event which is the failure disaster event of the current natural gas pipeline, all the nodes, all the directed edges, and the terminal disaster node event which is the disaster damage caused by the failure disaster event of the current natural gas pipeline, further includes:

[0018] Determine the disaster damage caused by the failure disaster event of the current natural gas transmission pipeline through Damage = Act(Vul - Risk); where Act represents the disaster - causing environment activity index, Vul represents the vulnerability index of the disaster - bearing entity, and Risk represents the risk value index of the disaster - causing factor.

[0019] Before determining the disaster damage caused by the failure disaster event of the current natural gas transmission pipeline through Damage = Act(Vul - Risk), it further includes:

[0020] Determine the current natural gas transmission pipeline and obtain the geographical environment factors where the current natural gas transmission pipeline is located, so as to determine the disaster - causing environment activity index of the current natural gas transmission pipeline based on the geographical environment factors and through Act=(E, T); where E represents the disaster - causing environment geographical state index and T represents the time parameter.

[0021] Obtain the risk value index of the disaster - causing factor of the current natural gas transmission pipeline through Risk=(H, T); where H represents the disaster - causing factor triggered by the failure disaster of the current natural gas transmission pipeline and T represents the time parameter.

[0022] Through Vul=(Vul s , Vul c , I, E, T) obtain the vulnerability index of the disaster - bearing entity of the current natural gas transmission pipeline; where Vul s represents the social environment vulnerability index, Vul c represents the natural environment vulnerability index, I represents the disaster relief resources invested after the disaster occurs, and T represents the time parameter.

[0023] Optionally, during the process of determining the disaster damage caused by the failure disaster event of the current natural gas transmission pipeline through Damage = Act(Vul - Risk), it further includes:

[0024] When (Vul - Risk)>0, determine that the operating state of the disaster - bearing entity in the area where the current natural gas transmission pipeline flows is in a normal operating state;

[0025] When (Vul - Risk)=0, determine that the disaster - bearing entity is at the critical point of the disaster accident occurrence, and execute the control steps for the disaster - causing factors;

[0026] When (Vul - Risk)<0, determine that the operating state of the disaster - bearing entity area is in an abnormal operating state.

[0027] Optionally, calculating the topological structure parameters including in - degree, out - degree, total degree value, and clustering coefficient in the disaster chain network includes:

[0028] By calculate the in-degree and out-degree of each of the said nodes; where, d i represents the degree of node v i , a ij represents the number of edges between node v i and node v j , and N represents the number of nodes in the said disaster chain network;

[0029] Calculate the total degree value of the said disaster chain network according to the in-degree and out-degree of the nodes;

[0030] By determine the node clustering coefficient; where, C i represents the node clustering coefficient of node v i , L i represents the number of edges between adjacent nodes to node v i , n is the number of nodes adjacent to node v i ;

[0031] By determine the global clustering coefficient and take the said global clustering coefficient as the clustering coefficient of the said disaster chain network.

[0032] Optionally, calculating the risk degree of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas transmission pipeline based on the disaster causing rate, loss degree, and directed edge vulnerability of the said disaster chain network includes:

[0033] By calculate the occurrence probability of each of the disaster events of the nodes in the said disaster chain network to obtain the disaster causing rate of the said disaster chain network; where, P AB represents the probability that disaster event A causes disaster event B to occur, C A and C B are the occurrence times of disaster events A and B, C AB is the occurrence time that disaster event A causes disaster event B to occur;

[0034] By L vi =d vi avi calculate the node loss degree of each of the nodes under the disaster causing environment respectively to obtain the loss degree of the said disaster chain network based on the said node loss degree; where, d vi represents the degree value of node vi, a vi represents the adjustment effect of the disaster causing environment on node d vi ;

[0035] By calculate the directed edge vulnerability; where, Vul i represents the directed edge vulnerability, B iDenote the edge betweenness as \(L\). i Denote the average length of the disaster chain network as \(H\). i Denote the connectivity of the disaster chain network;

[0036] Based on Calculate the risk degree of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas transmission pipeline; where \(R\) is the risk degree of the failure disaster chain. AB Denote the risk degree from disaster event \(A\) to disaster event \(B\) as \(P\). NM Denote the probability that disaster event \(N\) in the node causes disaster event \(M\) to occur as \(Vul\). NM Denote the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing entity of the directed link pointing from disaster event \(N\) to disaster event \(M\). Denote the node loss degree of disaster event \(M\) under the disaster-causing environment as \(A\). M Denote the adjustment effect of geographical environment factors on disaster event \(M\).

[0037] In a second aspect, the present application discloses an analysis device for a failure disaster chain of a gas transmission pipeline, including:

[0038] A network construction module, configured to, when a failure disaster of a natural gas transmission pipeline occurs, use all disaster events of the current natural gas transmission pipeline as nodes in the network, and use the inducing factors between the disaster events as directed links in the network, so as to construct a disaster chain network according to all the nodes and all the directed links;

[0039] A risk determination module, configured to calculate topological structure parameters including in-degree, out-degree, total degree value, and clustering coefficient in the disaster chain network, so as to determine the evolution mechanism of risk propagation of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas transmission pipeline based on the topological structure parameters;

[0040] A risk degree calculation module, configured to calculate the risk degree of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas transmission pipeline based on the disaster-causing rate, loss degree, and directed link vulnerability of the disaster chain network;

[0041] An analysis module, configured to analyze the current natural gas transmission pipeline according to the evolution mechanism of risk propagation of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas transmission pipeline and the risk degree of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas transmission pipeline.

[0042] In a third aspect, the present application discloses an electronic device, including:

[0043] A memory, configured to store a computer program;

[0044] A processor, configured to execute the computer program to implement the steps of the aforementioned analysis method for a failure disaster chain of a gas transmission pipeline.

[0045] Fourthly, the present application discloses a computer-readable storage medium for storing a computer program. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the above-disclosed gas pipeline failure disaster chain analysis method are implemented.

[0046] It can be seen that the present application discloses a gas pipeline failure disaster chain analysis method, including: when a gas pipeline failure disaster occurs, all disaster events of the current gas pipeline are used as nodes in the network, and the inducing factors between the disaster events are used as directed edges in the network, so as to construct a disaster chain network according to all the nodes and all the directed edges; calculating topological structure parameters including in-degree, out-degree, total degree value, and clustering coefficient in the disaster chain network, so as to determine the evolution mechanism of the risk propagation of the failure disaster chain of the current gas pipeline based on the topological structure parameters; calculating the risk degree of the failure disaster chain of the current gas pipeline based on the disaster rate, loss degree, and directed edge vulnerability of the disaster chain network; analyzing the current gas pipeline according to the evolution mechanism of the risk propagation of the failure disaster chain of the current gas pipeline and the risk degree of the failure disaster chain of the current gas pipeline. Thus, by using all the disaster events of the current gas pipeline as nodes in the network and the inducing factors between the disaster events as directed edges in the network, a disaster chain network can be formed, and then risk management can be transformed into a mathematical model. Furthermore, the evolution mechanism of the risk propagation of the failure disaster chain of the current gas pipeline can be determined from a macroscopic perspective, and the risk analysis of a specific gas pipeline failure disaster chain can be carried out from a microscopic perspective, so as to calculate the risk degree of the failure disaster chain of a certain gas pipeline by using the concept of risk degree. By jointly analyzing the current gas pipeline through the risk degree calculation result and the evolution mechanism of the macroscopic analysis, the comprehensive analysis of the propagation and evolution mechanism of the gas pipeline failure disaster chain can be realized, which has strong universality and feasibility. Moreover, it comprehensively considers four aspects: disaster-causing environment, disaster-causing factors, disaster-bearing entities, and disaster conditions, covering the entire disaster chain, and has comprehensiveness and rationality. Description of the Drawings

[0047] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention or the prior art, the following will briefly introduce the drawings required for the description of the embodiments or the prior art. Obviously, the drawings in the following description are only the embodiments of the present invention. For those of ordinary skill in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to the provided drawings without creative efforts.

[0048] Figure 1 It is a flowchart of a gas pipeline failure disaster chain analysis method disclosed in the present application;

[0049] Figure 2 It is a schematic diagram of the disaster-causing environment structure disclosed in the present application;

[0050] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of disaster-causing factors disclosed in this application;

[0051] Figure 4 A diagram of the relationship of disaster-bearing entities disclosed in this application;

[0052] Figure 5 A schematic diagram of a disaster chain network disclosed in this application;

[0053] Figure 6 A schematic diagram of the structure of an analysis device for a disaster chain of gas pipeline failure disclosed in this application;

[0054] Figure 7 A structural diagram of an electronic device disclosed in this application. Detailed implementation manners

[0055] Next, the technical solutions in the embodiments of this application will be clearly and completely described in conjunction with the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of this application. Obviously, the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0056] In recent years, with the continuous acceleration of the urbanization process, the urban gas industry, industry, transportation, power generation and other fields have also shown a high-speed development trend. In this context, the demand and utilization rate of natural gas also show an increasing trend. Therefore, the safe operation of natural gas transmission pipelines is of crucial significance for meeting the growing gas demand.

[0057] However, during the normal operation of natural gas transmission pipelines, due to the complexity and instability of the environment and the particularity of the transported medium, etc., natural gas is extremely likely to cause risks such as pipeline fracture during transportation, and lead to consequences such as natural gas leakage, explosion, and fire. Therefore, systematic analysis of the disaster chain of natural gas pipeline failure can provide scientific theoretical support and basis for pipeline management departments to formulate corresponding plans and emergency measures.

[0058] Currently, the research on gas transmission pipelines mainly focuses on the operating laws and regulations of pipelines, the causes of pipeline corrosion, the prediction of pipeline failure consequences, etc. However, there is still a large gap in the systematic research on the analysis of the disaster chain of gas pipeline failure.

[0059] To this end, the present invention provides an analysis scheme for the failure disaster chain of gas transmission pipelines, which can analyze the failure disaster chain of gas transmission pipelines from a systematic perspective, starting from the secondary and derivative disaster events caused by pipeline failures, studying the internal evolution and propagation mechanism thereof, formulating corresponding emergency management measures, and then specifically reducing the losses and consequences caused by disasters after the failure of gas transmission pipelines.

[0060] Referring to Figure 1 As shown, an embodiment of the present invention discloses an analysis method for the failure disaster chain of gas transmission pipelines, including:

[0061] Step S11: When a failure disaster of a natural gas transmission pipeline occurs, all disaster events of the current natural gas transmission pipeline are used as nodes in the network, and the inducing factors between the disaster events are used as directed edges in the network, so as to construct a disaster chain network according to all the nodes and all the directed edges.

[0062] In this embodiment, to realize the systematic analysis of the risk of the failure disaster chain of natural gas transmission pipelines, the general definitions of disasters and disaster chains are first introduced. For a disaster, its connotation needs to meet the following three conditions to be called a disaster: (1) The occurrence of the disaster has a clear internal or external cause; (2) The disaster must have a clear object of action and cause serious impacts on people, objects, the environment, etc. around; (3) The impact degree brought about after the disaster occurs exceeds the maximum bearing capacity of the environment in the area where it occurs, and thus endangers the environment and people's lives and property safety, etc. On the basis of the definition of disasters, the concept of a disaster chain is proposed: A disaster chain is a chain relationship in which the consequences of one disaster are transformed into another disaster within a specific time or space, thereby triggering a series of secondary and derivative disasters. By deeply analyzing the essence of the disaster chain, it can be found that it contains disaster events in different development stages and influencing factors within each stage, constituting a disaster subsystem. These subsystems influence and are related to each other, reflecting the integrity of the entire system. Therefore, a disaster chain can be regarded as a complex system with a certain feedback function. Therefore, the disaster chain expression formula is obtained based on the following formula:

[0063] Z(n) = {Z s (n), X, Y};

[0064] Among them, Z(n) represents the disaster chain, Z s (n) represents the constituent elements in the disaster chain, X represents the relationship between the elements in the disaster chain, and Y represents the relevant influencing factors of the disaster chain or the external environment where the disaster chain is located.

[0065] Generally, the evolution mode of a disaster chain is that the occurrence of one disaster phenomenon triggers the generation of another disaster consequence, forming a chain structure composed of various disaster events due to a certain causal relationship, mainly including five types: linear, divergent, convergent, cyclic, and networked. The linear type means that the spread of a disaster is in a chain conduction; the divergent type refers to the disaster conduction mode in which one disaster event triggers multiple secondary and derivative disaster events; the convergent type refers to the disaster conduction mode in which the occurrence of one disaster event can be induced by multiple initial disaster events; the cyclic type refers to the linear disaster evolution path in which the parent disaster event sequentially evolves into the child disaster event during the evolution of the disaster event, and finally forms a closed-loop disaster evolution mode; the networked type, also known as the cross type, means that various disaster events continuously cross and penetrate during the disaster evolution process, so that the disaster evolution develops along the path of the network. For the characterization of the disaster evolution of natural gas transmission pipelines, whether it is the key nodes of the disaster evolution or the key paths in the evolution path, a complete complex network needs to be constructed in the form of points, edges, and networks for expression. Therefore, on the basis of disaster evolution, the complex network theory is introduced, and the disaster evolution is visualized through the relevant characteristic parameters of the complex network.

[0066] In this embodiment, when a disaster of natural gas transmission pipeline failure occurs, the first disaster event caused by the disaster-causing environment where the current natural gas transmission pipeline is located, the second disaster event caused by the disaster-causing factors, the third disaster event caused by the bearing body, and the fourth disaster event caused by the disaster situation are respectively identified, and the first disaster event, the second disaster event, the third disaster event, and the fourth disaster event are used as nodes in the network; it is judged whether there is a causal relationship or a conduction relationship between any two of the first disaster event, the second disaster event, the third disaster event, and the fourth disaster event; if so, the corresponding disaster events are connected by a directed connection method to obtain the directed edges in the network; based on the source disaster node event of the failure disaster event of the current natural gas transmission pipeline, all the nodes, all the directed edges, and the final disaster node event of the disaster damage caused by the occurrence of the failure disaster event of the current natural gas transmission pipeline, a disaster chain network is constructed. It can be understood that the disaster-causing environment is the first link of the natural gas transmission pipeline disaster chain, which refers to the set of factors that may trigger the occurrence of various disaster events. In such an environment, disaster events are more likely to occur, such as Figure 2As shown in the figure, according to the differences in influencing factors around the failure location of natural gas transmission pipelines, the disaster-causing environment that leads to the failure of natural gas transmission pipelines can be analyzed from two aspects: social environment and natural environment. For example, in the social environment, there is human production and life, and in the natural environment, there are debris flows, soil and water corrosion, etc. The more the number of influencing factors in a region, the more complex the disaster-causing environment, and the more likely the natural gas transmission pipelines in this region are to fail. Therefore, the corresponding disaster event is the first disaster event. Specifically, identifying the first disaster event can specifically include the following events: The disaster-causing environment plays an extremely important role in the processes of disaster generation, propagation, and expansion. And according to the complexity, dynamics, etc. of the disaster-causing environment, different types of disaster consequences will be produced. Therefore, by identifying the disaster event nodes caused by the disaster-causing environment and analyzing the development direction of the disaster situation of the failure disaster accident of the gas transmission pipeline under the influence of the disaster-causing environment, the sorted disaster events are summarized as shown in Table 1 below:

[0067] Table 1

[0068]

[0069] Among them, the disaster-causing environment is divided into natural environment and social environment. Among them, the disaster categories corresponding to the natural environment also include: damaged soil health, deteriorated air quality, and affected water quality; the disaster events corresponding to the social environment include: affecting the operation of the transportation system, affecting the operation of the venue, and affecting the production of upstream and downstream enterprises.

[0070] The disaster-causing factor is the second link in the natural gas transmission pipeline disaster chain. It refers to the direct factor that causes the disaster accident and is divided into two categories: natural disaster-causing factors and human-induced disaster-causing factors according to the different triggering object subjects. Moreover, due to the influence of the disaster-causing environment, there will also be a certain interaction between different disaster-causing factors, which may further lead to the expansion of the disaster event. As Figure 3 shown, the common disaster events after the failure of natural gas transmission pipelines include gas leakage, explosion, etc. The two are not completely independent disaster events and are very likely to promote each other, ultimately resulting in the continuous expansion of the natural gas transmission pipeline failure disaster. Therefore, the disaster event caused by the disaster-causing factor is the second disaster event. Among them, the disaster events caused by the disaster-causing factor are summarized as shown in Table 2 below:

[0071] Table 2

[0072]

[0073]

[0074] The disaster-bearing entity is the third link in the natural gas pipeline disaster chain, referring to the direct object of action during a disaster event, namely the social system, environmental system, natural gas pipeline network system, etc. When a natural gas pipeline failure disaster occurs, it will not only directly affect people's living safety and social and economic development, but also cause irreversible damage to the ecological environment. In addition, the pipeline failure disaster will also indirectly affect the stability of regional gas supply and hinder normal production and life. For the natural gas pipeline failure disaster, the disaster-bearing entity can be analyzed from three aspects: society, economy, and environment, and their relationship is as shown in Figure 4 shown. For the object of action during a natural gas pipeline failure disaster, that is, the disaster-bearing entity, the corresponding disaster event is the third disaster event. Among them, according to the characteristics of the disaster-bearing body, the third event of the disaster-bearing entity disaster chain network node is identified from three perspectives: economy, society, and environment, and the results are sorted out as shown in Table 3 below:

[0075] Table 3

[0076]

[0077]

[0078] The disaster situation is the last link in the natural gas pipeline disaster chain, referring to the magnitude of the losses caused after a natural gas pipeline failure disaster, including direct or indirect economic losses, the degree of social impact, and the degree of impact on the ecological environment. The magnitude of the disaster situation is closely related to the disaster-causing environment, disaster-causing factors, and disaster-bearing entity when the pipeline failure disaster occurs. For example, when a pipeline failure disaster occurs in a densely populated city, it may not only cause a large number of casualties but also affect the quality of the urban ecological environment. Therefore, the disaster event that leads to the disaster situation is regarded as the fourth disaster event. Among them, the fourth disaster event caused by the disaster situation is sorted out as shown in Table 4 below:

[0079] Table 4

[0080]

[0081] After identifying the disaster chain nodes, the complex network theory is used to integrate the network nodes of the pipeline failure disaster chain. The node events with causal and conduction relationships are sorted out by connecting lines. Taking the pipeline failure disaster event as the source disaster node event of risk propagation and the economic impact, environmental impact, and social impact as the end node events of risk propagation, a network model of the pipeline failure disaster chain is constructed, and the network schematic diagram is as shown in Figure 5 shown.

[0082] Then, each disaster event is taken as a network node, and based on the induced relationships among the obtained first, second, third, and fourth disaster events, the directed edge relationships among the nodes are further obtained. The specific steps for determining the directed edges are as follows: When disaster event 1 causes disaster event 2 to occur through an inducing factor, there is a directed edge from disaster event 1 to disaster event 2 between disaster event 1 and disaster event 2. A disaster chain network is jointly constructed based on the above nodes and directed edges. Among them, the disaster chain network has the following characteristics:

[0083] (1) Freedom: Freedom means that the disaster of natural gas pipeline failure not only directly affects the disaster-bearing body, but also indirectly involves the exchange of matter and energy. For example, gas diffusion brought by the atmospheric cycle and heat diffusion caused by an explosion. Therefore, the exchange of matter and energy is the manifestation of the disaster occurrence and also the premise for the continuous evolution of the disaster in the disaster chain.

[0084] (2) Spatiotemporality: Spatiotemporality refers to the fact that the disaster of natural gas pipeline failure occurs in a certain time and space, and the disaster will evolve over time. For example, when a natural gas pipeline breaks, gas leakage will occur in a short time. If the disaster situation is not disposed of in time, it is very likely to evolve into an explosion or even a fire. Therefore, by analyzing the spatiotemporality of the disaster chain of pipeline failure, exploring the evolution law of the spatiotemporal effect when the disaster event occurs is conducive to providing corresponding basis for disaster control and reduction.

[0085] (3) Dynamics: Dynamics means that the disaster of natural gas pipeline failure will continuously evolve over time.

[0086] (4) Irreversibility: Irreversibility means that after the disaster of natural gas pipeline failure occurs, its impact far exceeds the self-regulating ability of the disaster-bearing body, and thus causes irreversible damage to the structure, operation, etc. of the disaster-bearing body.

[0087] (5) Chain reaction: Chain reaction means that after the disaster of natural gas pipeline failure occurs, it often causes a series of secondary disasters and derivative disasters, thus forming a disaster chain of natural gas pipelines.

[0088] (6) Complexity and coupling: Complexity means that the risk disaster chain of natural gas pipelines consists of four parts: disaster-causing environment, disaster-causing factors, disaster-bearing body, and disaster situation. Coupling refers to the various coupling effects generated among each link. For example, the complexity of the disaster-causing environment provides various disaster-causing factors for the occurrence of pipeline disasters, and the action of multiple disaster-causing factors on different disaster-bearing bodies will cause different disaster situations.

[0089] After summarizing the characteristics of the natural gas pipeline failure disaster chain, the formation mechanism of the disaster chain should be studied to obtain the disaster-causing formula for natural gas pipeline failure, that is, before constructing the disaster chain network based on the source disaster node event of the failure disaster event of the current natural gas pipeline, all the nodes, all the directed edges, and the final disaster node event of the disaster damage caused by the failure disaster event of the current natural gas pipeline, it also includes: determining the disaster damage caused by the failure disaster event of the current natural gas pipeline through Damage = Act(Vul - Risk); where Act represents the activity index of the disaster-causing environment, Vul represents the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body, and Risk represents the risk value index of the disaster-causing factor. It can be understood that the disaster damage caused by the natural gas pipeline failure disaster event can be determined through Damage = Act(Vul - Risk).

[0090] In this embodiment, before determining the disaster damage caused by the failure disaster event of the current natural gas pipeline through Damage = Act(Vul - Risk), it also includes: determining the current natural gas pipeline and obtaining the geographical environment factors where the current natural gas pipeline is located, so as to determine the activity index of the disaster-causing environment of the current natural gas pipeline based on the geographical environment factors and through Act = (E, T); where E represents the geographical state index of the disaster-causing environment, and T represents the time parameter; obtaining the risk value index of the disaster-causing factor of the current natural gas pipeline through Risk = (H, T); where H represents the disaster-causing factor triggered by the failure disaster of the current natural gas pipeline, and T represents the time parameter; obtaining the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body of the current natural gas pipeline through Vul = (Vul s , Vul c , I, M, T); where Vul s represents the vulnerability index of the social environment, Vul c represents the vulnerability index of the natural environment, I represents the disaster relief resources invested after the disaster occurs, and T represents the time parameter. It can be understood that the corresponding activity information of the disaster-causing environment, risk value information of the disaster-causing factor, and vulnerability information of the disaster-bearing body are obtained from three aspects of the disaster-causing environment, disaster-causing factor, and disaster-bearing body: specifically:

[0091] Activity of the disaster-causing environment: The activity of the disaster-causing environment is one of the ways to determine whether the disaster-causing environment is stable. When the activity of the disaster-causing environment is relatively high, various factors inside the environment are more likely to trigger the occurrence of natural gas pipeline disaster events and promote the disaster evolution process. The expression formula for the activity of the disaster-causing environment is as follows:

[0092] Act = (E, T);

[0093] Among them, Act is the activity index of the disaster-causing environment, E is the geographical state index of the disaster-causing environment, and T is the time parameter.

[0094] Hazard factor risk value: The determination of the hazard factor risk value is obtained by statistically analyzing the loss value caused by the hazard factor within a certain period of time. The higher the hazard factor risk value, the greater the loss caused by the disaster. The calculation formula for the hazard factor risk value is as follows:

[0095] Risk = (H, T);

[0096] Among them, Risk is the hazard factor risk value index, H represents the relevant hazard factors caused by the failure of the gas transmission pipeline, such as natural gas leakage, explosion, fire, etc., and T is the time parameter.

[0097] Vulnerability of the disaster-bearing entity: The vulnerability of the disaster-bearing entity is determined based on the ability of the disaster-bearing entity to withstand the failure of the gas transmission pipeline. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0098] Vul = (Vul s , Vul c , I, E, T);

[0099] Among them, Vul is the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing entity, Vul s represents the vulnerability index of the social environment, Vul c represents the vulnerability index of the natural environment, I represents the disaster relief resources invested after the disaster, usually representing the disaster tolerance of the system, E is the geographical state index of the disaster-causing environment, and T is the time parameter.

[0100] Among them, when determining the disaster damage process caused by the failure disaster event of the current gas transmission pipeline through Damage = Act(Vul - Risk), it also includes: when (Vul - Risk) > 0, it is determined that the operating state of the disaster-bearing entity in the area where the current gas transmission pipeline flows is in a normal operating state; when (Vul - Risk) = 0, it is determined that the disaster-bearing entity is in the critical state of the disaster accident, and the control steps for the hazard factor are executed; when (Vul - Risk) < 0, it is determined that the operating state of the disaster-bearing entity area is in an abnormal operating state. It can be understood that when it is determined that the regional disaster-bearing entity is in the critical state of the disaster accident, the management department should immediately take measures to control the corresponding hazard factors. When it is determined that the disaster-bearing entity area is in an abnormal operating state, the stability of the area has been broken, the disaster is in the process of continuous evolution, and the disaster loss is also increasing.

[0101] Step S12: Calculate the topological structure parameters including in-degree, out-degree, total degree value, and clustering coefficient in the disaster chain network, so as to determine the evolution mechanism of the risk propagation of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas transmission pipeline based on the topological structure parameters.

[0102] In this embodiment, by calculate the node in-degree and node out-degree of each node; where d i represents the degree of node v i , a ij represents the number of edges between node v i and node v j , and N represents the number of nodes in the disaster chain network; calculate the total degree value of the disaster chain network according to the node in-degree and node out-degree; by determine the node clustering coefficient; where C i represents the node clustering coefficient of node v i , L i represents the number of edges between adjacent nodes of node v i , n is the number of nodes adjacent to node v i ; by determine the global clustering coefficient and use the global clustering coefficient as the clustering coefficient of the disaster chain network. In addition, in a complex network, the ratio of the points and edges passed in the shortest path is usually used to represent the betweenness centrality of a point. The specific formula is as follows: where C B (v) represents the betweenness centrality, M st (v) represents the number of shortest paths passing through node M st , and M st represents the number of shortest paths between the source point s and the sink point t in the network. The shortest path refers to the minimum value of the number of edges required from the initial disaster event to any other disaster event. The minimum number of edges between two nodes is called the path length. By taking the average of the path lengths between all nodes, the average path length of the network can be calculated. The specific calculation formula is as follows: where L is the average path length, l ij represents the minimum value of the edges experienced from the initial node of the network to any node, and n represents the number of nodes in the network.

[0103] Step S13: Calculate the risk degree of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas transmission pipeline based on the disaster-causing rate, loss degree, and directed edge vulnerability of the disaster chain network.

[0104] In this embodiment, by calculate the occurrence probability of each disaster event in the disaster chain network to obtain the disaster-causing rate of the disaster chain network; where P ABRepresents the probability that disaster event A leads to the occurrence of disaster event B, C A And C B Are the occurrence times of disaster event A and disaster event B, C AB Is the occurrence times of disaster event A leading to the occurrence of disaster event B; It can be understood that the disaster-causing rate refers to calculating the probability of event propagation and evolution in the disaster chain, so as to calculate the probability of the risk occurrence of the entire disaster chain. The probability of an event occurring in the disaster chain should not only look at the probability of the event itself, but also calculate the probability of the event occurring from multiple aspects such as the surrounding environment and the impact of other disaster events. For example, if the occurrence of disaster event A causes the occurrence of disaster event B, then the probability of the occurrence of disaster event B will have a certain relationship with A. Through L vi = d vi avi Calculate the node loss degree of each node in the disaster-causing environment respectively, so as to obtain the loss degree of the disaster chain network based on the node loss degree; Among them, d vi Represents the degree value of node vi, a vi Represents the adjustment effect of the disaster-causing environment on node d vi ; It can be understood that the loss degree refers to analyzing the relevant disaster nodes in the disaster chain in the entire complex network system, and judging the loss degree brought by the node event according to the degree value of the node event. The larger the degree value, the greater the loss caused after the occurrence of the node event. Through Calculate the directed edge vulnerability; Among them, Vul i Represents the directed edge vulnerability, B i Represents the edge betweenness, L i Represents the average length of the disaster chain network, H i Represents the connectivity of the disaster chain network; It can be understood that in the gas pipeline failure disaster chain, preventing the transmission of disaster events successfully is more practical and in line with reality than directly controlling the occurrence of disaster nodes. Therefore, introducing the disaster chain edge vulnerability to analyze the possibility and vulnerability of event transmission in the disaster chain model. The higher the vulnerability of an edge, the more important the position of the edge in the risk transmission of the complex network model. Based on Calculate the risk degree of the current gas pipeline failure disaster chain; Among them, R is the risk degree of the failure disaster chain, R AB Represents the risk degree from disaster event A to disaster event B, P NM Represents the probability that disaster event N in the node leads to the occurrence of disaster event M, Vul NM Represents the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing entity of the directed edge pointing from disaster event N to disaster event M, Represents the node loss degree of disaster event M in the disaster-causing environment, A MIndicating the moderating effect of geographical environmental factors on disaster event M, A M Its determination is mainly through the identification of relevant factors and the determination of the frequencies of the existence of relevant influencing factors when the disaster event occurs.

[0105] Step S14: Analyze the current natural gas transmission pipeline according to the evolution mechanism of the risk propagation of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas transmission pipeline and the risk degree of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas transmission pipeline.

[0106] In this embodiment, based on the complex network theory, by introducing the definition and connotation of the failure disaster chain of the natural gas transmission pipeline, that is, from four perspectives of the disaster-causing environment, disaster-causing factors, disaster-bearing entities, and disaster conditions, the risk of the failure disaster chain of the natural gas transmission pipeline is systematically analyzed, and the formation mechanism of the failure disaster chain of the natural gas transmission pipeline is studied. The comprehensive analysis of the propagation and evolution mechanism of the failure disaster chain of the natural gas transmission pipeline can be realized, and the analysis is based on the actual situations that the natural gas transmission pipeline may encounter during the actual operation process, and it fills the gap that the current research only focuses on a certain disaster link. After analyzing the disaster chain network from the macroscopic and microscopic perspectives respectively, the global analysis of the failure disaster chain of the natural gas transmission pipeline can be realized, and corresponding governance measures and prevention and control means can be proposed. In order to improve the enterprise's response ability to complex systems with multi-system coupling and interaction, measures and suggestions such as strengthening the communication and connection between multiple departments and multiple systems, strengthening the emergency drill for the failure disaster of the natural gas transmission pipeline, and strengthening the construction of the enterprise's internal environmental emergency ability are put forward, providing corresponding scientific theoretical basis for the enterprise to deal with the occurrence of the failure disaster event of the natural gas transmission pipeline and the implementation of emergency measures.

[0107] It can be seen that the present application discloses a method for analyzing a failure disaster chain of a gas transmission pipeline, including: when a failure disaster of a natural gas transmission pipeline occurs, all disaster events of the current natural gas transmission pipeline are used as nodes in a network, and the inducing factors between the disaster events are used as directed edges in the network, so as to construct a disaster chain network according to all the nodes and all the directed edges; calculating topological structure parameters including in-degree, out-degree, total degree value, and clustering coefficient in the disaster chain network, so as to determine the evolution mechanism of the risk propagation of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas transmission pipeline based on the topological structure parameters; calculating the risk degree of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas transmission pipeline based on the disaster rate, loss degree, and directed edge vulnerability of the disaster chain network; analyzing the current natural gas transmission pipeline according to the evolution mechanism of the risk propagation of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas transmission pipeline and the risk degree of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas transmission pipeline. Thus, by using all the disaster events of the current natural gas transmission pipeline as nodes in the network and the inducing factors between the disaster events as directed edges in the network, a disaster chain network can be formed, and then risk management can be transformed into a mathematical model, and the evolution mechanism of the risk propagation of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas transmission pipeline can be determined from a macroscopic perspective, and the risk analysis of a specific failure disaster chain of the gas transmission pipeline can be carried out from a microscopic perspective, so as to calculate the risk degree of a failure disaster chain of a certain gas transmission pipeline by using the concept of risk degree. By jointly analyzing the current natural gas transmission pipeline through the risk degree calculation result and the evolution mechanism of the macroscopic analysis, the comprehensive analysis of the propagation and evolution mechanism of the failure disaster chain of the natural gas transmission pipeline can be realized, which has strong universality and feasibility, and comprehensively considers four aspects: disaster-causing environment, disaster-causing factors, disaster-bearing entities, and disaster conditions, covering the whole disaster chain, and having comprehensiveness and rationality.

[0108] Referring to Figure 6 as shown, the present invention also correspondingly discloses an analysis device for a failure disaster chain of a gas transmission pipeline, including:

[0109] A network construction module 11, configured to, when a failure disaster of a natural gas transmission pipeline occurs, use all disaster events of the current natural gas transmission pipeline as nodes in a network, and the inducing factors between the disaster events as directed edges in the network, so as to construct a disaster chain network according to all the nodes and all the directed edges;

[0110] A risk determination module 12, configured to calculate topological structure parameters including in-degree, out-degree, total degree value, and clustering coefficient in the disaster chain network, so as to determine the evolution mechanism of the risk propagation of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas transmission pipeline based on the topological structure parameters;

[0111] A risk degree calculation module 13, configured to calculate the risk degree of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas pipeline based on the disaster-causing rate, loss degree, and vulnerability of the directed link of the disaster chain network;

[0112] An analysis module 14, configured to analyze the current natural gas pipeline according to the evolution mechanism of the risk propagation of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas pipeline and the risk degree of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas pipeline.

[0113] It can be seen that in the present application, when a failure disaster of a natural gas pipeline occurs, all disaster events of the current natural gas pipeline are used as nodes in the network, and the inducing factors between the disaster events are used as directed links in the network, so as to construct a disaster chain network according to all the nodes and all the directed links; calculate topological structure parameters including in-degree, out-degree, total degree value, and clustering coefficient in the disaster chain network, so as to determine the evolution mechanism of the risk propagation of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas pipeline based on the topological structure parameters; calculate the risk degree of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas pipeline based on the disaster-causing rate, loss degree, and vulnerability of the directed link of the disaster chain network; analyze the current natural gas pipeline according to the evolution mechanism of the risk propagation of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas pipeline and the risk degree of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas pipeline. Thus, by using all the disaster events of the current natural gas pipeline as nodes in the network and the inducing factors between the disaster events as directed links in the network, a disaster chain network can be formed, and then risk management can be transformed into a mathematical model, and the evolution mechanism of the risk propagation of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas pipeline can be determined from a macroscopic perspective, and the risk of a specific failure disaster chain of the gas pipeline can be analyzed from a microscopic perspective, so as to calculate the risk degree of the failure disaster chain of a certain gas pipeline by using the concept of risk degree. By jointly analyzing the current natural gas pipeline through the risk degree calculation result and the evolution mechanism of the macroscopic analysis, a comprehensive analysis of the propagation and evolution mechanism of the failure disaster chain of the natural gas pipeline can be realized, which has strong universality and feasibility, and comprehensively considers four aspects: disaster-causing environment, disaster-causing factors, disaster-bearing entities, and disaster conditions, covering the entire disaster chain, and having comprehensiveness and rationality.

[0114] Furthermore, the embodiment of the present application also discloses an electronic device, Figure 7 which is a structural diagram of an electronic device 20 shown according to an exemplary embodiment, and the content in the figure should not be considered as any limitation to the scope of use of the present application.

[0115] Figure 7Schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device 20 provided by an embodiment of the present application. The electronic device 20 may specifically include: at least one processor 21, at least one memory 22, a power supply 23, a communication interface 24, an input / output interface 25, and a communication bus 26. Among them, the memory 22 is used to store a computer program, and the computer program is loaded and executed by the processor 21 to implement the relevant steps in the gas pipeline failure disaster chain analysis method disclosed in any of the foregoing embodiments. In addition, the electronic device 20 in this embodiment may specifically be an electronic computer.

[0116] In this embodiment, the power supply 23 is used to provide working voltage for each hardware device on the electronic device 20; the communication interface 24 can create a data transmission channel between the electronic device 20 and external devices, and the communication protocol it follows is any communication protocol applicable to the technical solution of the present application, and no specific limitation is imposed on it here; the input / output interface 25 is used to obtain external input data or output data to the outside, and its specific interface type can be selected according to specific application needs, and no specific limitation is made here.

[0117] Among them, the processor 21 may include one or more processing cores, such as a 4-core processor, an 8-core processor, etc. The processor 21 may be implemented in at least one hardware form of DSP (Digital Signal Processing), FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array), or PLA (Programmable Logic Array). The processor 21 may also include a main processor and a coprocessor. The main processor is a processor used to process data in the wake state, also known as the CPU (Central Processing Unit); the coprocessor is a low-power processor used to process data in the standby state. In some embodiments, the processor 21 may be integrated with a GPU (Graphics Processing Unit), and the GPU is responsible for rendering and drawing the content to be displayed on the display screen. In some embodiments, the processor 21 may also include an AI (Artificial Intelligence) processor, and the AI processor is used to process computing operations related to machine learning.

[0118] In addition, the memory 22, as a carrier for resource storage, may be a read-only memory, a random access memory, a disk, or an optical disc, etc., and the resources stored thereon may include an operating system 221, a computer program 222, etc., and the storage method may be temporary storage or permanent storage.

[0119] Among them, the operating system 221 is used to manage and control each hardware device and computer program 222 on the electronic device 20, so as to implement the operation and processing of the massive data 223 in the memory 22 by the processor 21. It can be Windows Server, Netware, Unix, Linux, etc. In addition to the computer program that can be used to complete the gas pipeline failure disaster chain analysis method executed by the electronic device 20 disclosed in any of the foregoing embodiments, the computer program 222 may further include computer programs that can be used to complete other specific tasks. The data 223 may include not only the data transmitted by external devices received by the electronic device, but also the data collected by its own input / output interface 25, etc.

[0120] Furthermore, the present application also discloses a computer-readable storage medium for storing a computer program; wherein, when the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the gas pipeline failure disaster chain analysis method disclosed above. For the specific steps of this method, reference can be made to the corresponding content disclosed in the foregoing embodiments, and details will not be repeated here.

[0121] In this specification, the various embodiments are described in a progressive manner. Each embodiment focuses on the differences from other embodiments. For the same or similar parts among the various embodiments, reference can be made to each other. For the devices disclosed in the embodiments, since they correspond to the methods disclosed in the embodiments, the description is relatively simple, and reference can be made to the description of the method part for related parts.

[0122] Those skilled in the art may further realize that the units and algorithm steps of each example described in combination with the embodiments disclosed herein can be implemented by electronic hardware, computer software, or a combination of both. To clearly illustrate the interchangeability of hardware and software, the composition and steps of each example have been generally described according to functions in the above description. Whether these functions are executed in a hardware or software manner depends on the specific application and design constraints of the technical solution. Those skilled in the art can use different methods to implement the described functions for each specific application, but such implementation should not be considered as exceeding the scope of this application. The steps of the methods or algorithms described in combination with the embodiments disclosed herein can be directly implemented by hardware, software modules executed by a processor, or a combination of both. The software modules can be placed in a random access memory (RAM), internal memory, read-only memory (ROM), electrically programmable read-only memory (EPROM), electrically erasable programmable read-only memory (EEPROM), registers, hard disk, removable disk, CD-ROM (Compact Disc - Read Only Memory), or any other form of storage medium known in the art.

[0123] Finally, it should also be noted that in this text, relational terms such as "first" and "second" are only used to distinguish one entity or operation from another entity or operation, and do not necessarily require or imply any such actual relationship or order between these entities or operations. Moreover, the term "comprising", "including", or any other variant thereof is intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or device comprising a series of elements includes not only those elements but also other elements not explicitly listed, or elements inherent to such process, method, article, or device. Without further limitation, an element defined by the statement "comprising an..." does not exclude the existence of additional identical elements in the process, method, article, or device comprising the said element.

[0124] The above has introduced the solution provided by the present invention in detail. Specific examples are used herein to elaborate on the principle and implementation manner of the present invention. The description of the above embodiments is only used to help understand the method and its core idea of the present invention; at the same time, for those of ordinary skill in the art, according to the idea of the present invention, there will be changes in the specific implementation manner and application scope. In summary, the content of this specification should not be construed as a limitation to the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for analyzing a gas pipeline failure disaster chain, characterized in that: include: When a natural gas pipeline failure disaster occurs, all disaster events of the current natural gas pipeline are used as nodes in the network, and the inducing factors between the disaster events are used as directed edges in the network, so as to construct a disaster chain network based on all the nodes and all the directed edges; Calculating the topological structure parameters including in-degree, out-degree, total degree value and clustering coefficient in the disaster chain network, so as to determine the evolution mechanism of the failure disaster chain risk propagation of the current natural gas transmission pipeline based on the topological structure parameters; Calculate the risk of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas pipeline based on the disaster rate, loss degree, and directed edge vulnerability of the disaster chain network; Analyzing the current natural gas transmission pipeline according to the evolution mechanism of the risk propagation of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas transmission pipeline and the risk degree of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas transmission pipeline; The method uses all disaster events of the current natural gas pipeline as nodes in the network, and the inducing factors between the disaster events as directed edges in the network, so as to construct a disaster chain network according to all the nodes and all the directed edges, including: Respectively identify a first disaster event caused by the disaster-causing environment where the current natural gas transmission pipeline is located, a second disaster event caused by disaster-causing factors, a third disaster event caused by the carrier, and a fourth disaster event caused by the disaster situation, and use the first disaster event, the second disaster event, the third disaster event, and the fourth disaster event as nodes in the network; Determine whether there is a causal relationship or a transmission relationship between any two of the first disaster event, the second disaster event, the third disaster event, and the fourth disaster event; If it exists, the corresponding disaster events are connected through directed lines to obtain directed edges in the network; Construct a disaster chain network based on the failure disaster event of the current natural gas pipeline as the source disaster node event, all the nodes, all the directed edges, and the disaster damage caused by the failure disaster event of the current natural gas pipeline as the final disaster node event; Before constructing the disaster chain network based on the failure disaster event of the current natural gas pipeline as the source disaster node event, all the nodes, all the directed edges, and the disaster damage caused by the failure disaster event of the current natural gas pipeline as the final disaster node event, the method further includes: The disaster damage caused by the failure disaster event of the current natural gas pipeline is determined by Damage = Act (Vul-Risk); wherein Act represents the activity index of the disaster-causing environment, Vul represents the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing subject, and Risk represents the risk value index of the disaster-causing factor; Before determining the disaster damage caused by the failure disaster event of the current natural gas transmission pipeline through Damage=Act(Vul-Risk), the method further includes: Determine the current natural gas pipeline and obtain the geographical environment factors where the current natural gas pipeline is located, so as to determine the disaster-causing environment activity index of the current natural gas pipeline based on the geographical environment factors and through Act = (E, T); wherein E represents the disaster-causing environment geographical state index, and T represents the time parameter; Obtain the risk value index of the disaster-causing factors of the current natural gas pipeline by Risk = (H, T); wherein H represents the disaster-causing factors caused by the failure disaster of the current natural gas pipeline, and T represents the time parameter; By Vul=(Vul s ,Vul c ,I,E,T) obtain the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing entity of the current natural gas pipeline; wherein, Vul s Represents the social environmental vulnerability index, Vul c It represents the natural environment vulnerability index, I represents the disaster relief resources invested after the disaster occurs, and T represents the time parameter.

2. The gas pipeline failure disaster chain analysis method according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The process of determining the disaster damage caused by the failure disaster event of the current natural gas transmission pipeline through Damage=Act(Vul-Risk) also includes: When (Vul-Risk)>0, it is determined that the operation status of the disaster-bearing entity in the area where the current natural gas pipeline flows through is in normal operation; When (Vul-Risk)=0, it is determined that the disaster-bearing entity is at a critical point of a disaster accident, and the control steps of the disaster-causing factors are executed; When (Vul-Risk)<0, it is determined that the operation status of the disaster-bearing main area is in an abnormal operation status.

3. The gas pipeline failure disaster chain analysis method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculation of the topological structure parameters of the disaster chain network including in-degree, out-degree, total degree value, and clustering coefficient includes: pass Calculate the node in-degree and node out-degree of each node; where d i Represents node v i The degree, a ij Represents node v i With node v j The number of edges between them, N represents the number of nodes in the disaster chain network; Calculate the total degree value of the disaster chain network according to the node in-degree and the node out-degree; pass Determine the node clustering coefficient; where C i Represents node v i The node clustering coefficient, L i Represents the node v i The number of edges between adjacent nodes, n is the number of edges connected to node v i The number of adjacent nodes; pass A global clustering coefficient is determined, and the global clustering coefficient is used as the clustering coefficient of the disaster chain network.

4. The gas pipeline failure disaster chain analysis method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculating of the risk of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas transmission pipeline based on the disaster rate, loss degree, and directed edge vulnerability of the disaster chain network includes: pass Calculate the probability of disaster events occurring at each node in the disaster chain network to obtain the disaster rate of the disaster chain network; where P AB represents the probability that disaster event A will lead to disaster event B, C A With C B is the number of disaster events A and B, C AB The number of times disaster event A leads to disaster event B; By L vi =d vi avi The node loss degree of each node in the disaster environment is calculated respectively, so as to obtain the loss degree of the disaster chain network based on the node loss degree; wherein, d vi represents the degree value of node vi, a vi Represents the disaster-causing environment for node d vi The regulatory role of pass Calculate the vulnerability of directed edges; Vul i represents the vulnerability of the directed edge, B i represents the edge betweenness, L i represents the average length of the disaster chain network, H i Indicates the connectivity of the disaster chain network; based on Calculate the risk of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas pipeline; where R is the risk of the failure disaster chain, R A represents the risk of disaster event A, R AB represents the risk from disaster event A to disaster event B, R NM P represents the risk from disaster event N to disaster event M. A represents the probability of disaster event A occurring, represents the node loss degree of disaster event A in the disaster-causing environment, A A represents the regulatory effect of geographical environment factors on disaster event A, Vul A It represents the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing entity of disaster event A. represents the node loss degree of disaster event B in the disaster-causing environment, A B represents the regulatory effect of geographical environment factors on disaster event B, Vul AB represents the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing entity of the directed edge from disaster event A to disaster event B, P NM Vul represents the probability that disaster event N in the node will lead to disaster event M. NM It represents the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing entity of the directed edge from disaster event N to disaster event M. A represents the node loss degree of disaster event M in the disaster environment, M Represents the regulatory effect of geographical environment factors on disaster events M.

5. A gas pipeline failure disaster chain analysis device, characterized in that: include: A network construction module is used for, when a natural gas pipeline failure disaster occurs, taking all disaster events of the current natural gas pipeline as nodes in the network, and taking the inducing factors between the disaster events as directed edges in the network, so as to construct a disaster chain network according to all the nodes and all the directed edges; A risk determination module, used to calculate the topological structure parameters including in-degree, out-degree, total degree value and clustering coefficient in the disaster chain network, so as to determine the evolution mechanism of the failure disaster chain risk propagation of the current natural gas transmission pipeline based on the topological structure parameters; A risk calculation module, used to calculate the risk of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas pipeline based on the disaster rate, loss degree, and directed edge vulnerability of the disaster chain network; An analysis module, used for analyzing the current natural gas pipeline according to the evolution mechanism of the risk propagation of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas pipeline and the risk degree of the failure disaster chain of the current natural gas pipeline; The network construction module is specifically used to respectively identify a first disaster event caused by the disaster-causing environment where the current natural gas transmission pipeline is located, a second disaster event caused by disaster factors, a third disaster event caused by the carrier, and a fourth disaster event caused by the disaster situation, and use the first disaster event, the second disaster event, the third disaster event, and the fourth disaster event as nodes in the network; Determine whether there is a causal relationship or a transmission relationship between any two of the first disaster event, the second disaster event, the third disaster event, and the fourth disaster event; If so, the corresponding disaster events are connected by directed lines to obtain directed edges in the network; a disaster chain network is constructed based on the failure disaster event of the current natural gas pipeline as the source disaster node event, all the nodes, all the directed edges, and the disaster damage caused by the failure disaster event of the current natural gas pipeline as the final disaster node event; The gas pipeline failure disaster chain analysis device is also used to determine the disaster damage caused by the failure disaster event of the current natural gas pipeline through Damage = Act (Vul-Risk); wherein Act represents the activity index of the disaster-causing environment, Vul represents the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing subject, and Risk represents the risk value index of the disaster-causing factor; The gas pipeline failure disaster chain analysis device is also used to determine the current natural gas pipeline and obtain the geographical environment factors where the current natural gas pipeline is located, so as to determine the disaster-causing environment activity index of the current natural gas pipeline based on the geographical environment factors and through Act=(E, T); wherein E represents the disaster-causing environment geographical state index, and T represents the time parameter; obtain the disaster-causing factor risk value index of the current natural gas pipeline through Risk=(H, T); wherein H represents the disaster-causing factor caused by the failure disaster of the current natural gas pipeline, and T represents the time parameter; and obtain the disaster-causing factor risk value index of the current natural gas pipeline through Vul=(Vul s ,Vul c ,I,E,T) obtain the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing entity of the current natural gas pipeline; wherein, Vul s Represents the social environmental vulnerability index, Vul c It represents the natural environment vulnerability index, I represents the disaster relief resources invested after the disaster occurs, and T represents the time parameter.

6. An electronic device, characterized in that: include: Memory, used to store computer programs; A processor is used to execute the computer program to implement the steps of the gas pipeline failure disaster chain analysis method as described in any one of claims 1 to 4.

7. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: Used to store computer programs; wherein, when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the gas pipeline failure disaster chain analysis method according to any one of claims 1 to 4 are implemented.

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