A carbon neutrality evaluation index and calculation method thereof

Abstract

The present invention relates to the technical field of carbon neutrality evaluation, and in particular to a carbon neutrality evaluation index definition and a calculation method thereof, which comprises: Step S1: obtaining the time-varying carbon emission C of the engineering structure system to be evaluated; e (t) and the allowable carbon emissions T c (t); Step S2, according to the C e (t) and T c (t), calculate the probability that the engineering structure system to be evaluated does not achieve carbon neutrality during its entire life cycle, that is, the failure probability p f,CN (t); Step S3, according to the failure probability p f,CN (t), calculate the carbon neutrality index β CN (t); Step S4, according to the carbon neutrality index β CN (t) Determine whether the engineering structure system to be evaluated meets the carbon neutrality standard, so as to determine whether the engineering structure system to be evaluated needs to be adjusted to reduce carbon emissions. The carbon neutrality evaluation index and calculation method provided by the present invention can consistently measure, predict and monitor the carbon emissions and carbon neutrality of the engineering structure system (including its structure or components) at all stages of its life cycle, and is a relatively accurate and reasonable method for calculating and evaluating the carbon neutrality of the engineering structure system and its components.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of carbon neutrality evaluation technology, and in particular to a carbon neutrality evaluation index definition and a calculation method thereof. Background Art

[0002] As a pillar industry in my country, the construction industry's energy consumption and carbon emissions account for about half of my country's total annual energy consumption and carbon emissions, making it the key to achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.

[0003] However, neither China nor foreign countries have proposed a full life cycle carbon neutrality method that is urgently needed in the existing technology and can consistently measure the engineering structure system. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the technical problem that there is a lack of a method in the prior art that can consistently measure the carbon neutrality of an engineering structure system throughout its life cycle, the present invention provides a carbon neutrality evaluation index and a calculation method thereof, which includes:

[0005] Step S1: Obtain the C of the engineering structure system to be evaluated e (t) and T c (t); C e (t) and T c (t) respectively represent the time-varying carbon emissions of the engineering system to be evaluated during its entire life cycle and the allowable carbon emissions during its entire life cycle;

[0006] Step S2: according to the C e (t) and T c (t), calculate the probability that the engineering structure system to be evaluated does not achieve carbon neutrality during its entire life cycle, that is, the failure probability p f,CN (t);

[0007] Step S3: According to the failure probability p f,CN (t), calculate β CN (t), the β CN (t) is the carbon neutrality indicator used as a real-time measure of the carbon neutrality of the engineering system;

[0008] Step S4: according to the carbon neutrality index β CN (t) Determine whether the engineering structure system to be evaluated meets the carbon neutrality standard, so as to determine whether the engineering structure system to be evaluated needs to be adjusted to reduce carbon emissions.

[0009] Preferably, the probability that the engineering structure system in step S2 does not achieve carbon neutrality during its entire life cycle is defined as:

[0010] Probability of (carbon emissions ≥ target limit) (1)

[0011] Among them, the time-varying carbon emissions over the entire life cycle are derived from the engineering structure system during the entire life cycle of material and component production, planning and design, construction and transportation, operation and maintenance, and demolition and disposal, and change with time t; the target limit is the allowable carbon emissions of the engineering structure system over its entire life cycle, which is determined by the user or enforced by the regulatory agency to achieve the emission reduction target of the engineering structure system over its entire life cycle.

[0012] Preferably, in step S2, the failure probability p f,CN The calculation formula of (t) is:

[0013] p f,CN (t) = P[C e (t)≥T c (t)]; (2)

[0014] Among them, p f,CN (t) is the failure probability, C e (t) and T c (t) represent the time-varying carbon emissions of the engineering system to be evaluated during its entire life cycle and the allowable carbon emissions during its entire life cycle, respectively.

[0015] In step S3, according to the structural reliability theory, the β CN The calculation formula of (t) is:

[0016] β CN (t)=-Φ -1 [p f,CN (t)] (3)

[0017] Among them, β CN (t) is the carbon neutrality index used as a real-time measure of the carbon neutrality of the engineering system; -1 [·] is the inverse function of the standard normal distribution.

[0018] The failure probability p f,CN (t) According to the time-varying reliability theory, the first crossing probability of formula (2) is expressed as:

[0019]

[0020] Among them, p f,CN (0) is the failure probability of not achieving carbon neutrality at the beginning of its service life (t = 0). f,CN (0) can also be taken as zero; CN (t) is the time-varying carbon emission C e (t) The first crossing of the allowed carbon emission T in its life c (t) The average penetration rate.

[0021] Preferably, step S2 specifically includes:

[0022] Step S21: Establishing time-varying carbon emissions C e (t) Databases, including those from existing databases or from laboratory or field testing; e (t) represents the time-varying carbon emissions over the entire life cycle;

[0023] Step S22: Using the database, establish a time-varying carbon emission value C based on machine learning and statistical sampling methods. e (t) random model;

[0024] Step S23: Assume that the allowed carbon emission amount T c (t) is a deterministic time function, which determines the time-varying carbon emissions C e (t) probability distribution type and its statistical information;

[0025] Step S24: If the time-varying carbon emissions C in step S23 e (t) is a Gaussian random process, then the penetration rate v in formula (4) is calculated using formula (5): CN (t);

[0026] If the time-varying carbon emission C in step S23 e (t) is a non-Gaussian random process, then it is converted into an equivalent Gaussian process U Ce (t); then use the equivalent transformation Gaussian process And its statistical information, and then the penetration rate υ is calculated by formula (7) CN (t).

[0027] Step S25: Based on the penetration rate v calculated in step S24 CN (t) and the above formula (4) determine the failure probability p f,CN (t).

[0028] As a preference, if the time-varying carbon emissions C in step S23 e (t) is a Gaussian random process,

[0029] In formula (4), the penetration rate υ CN The analytical solution formula of (t) is:

[0030]

[0031] in is the time-varying carbon emission C e (t) time derivative process; and C e (t) = T c (t) is conditional The conditional mean and standard deviation functions of ; and C e (t) is the mean and standard deviation function; φ[·] and Φ[·] are the probability density function and cumulative distribution function of the standard normal, respectively; is the target carbon emission allowed c The time derivative of (t);

[0032] For a given mean function and the autocovariance function Gaussian random process C e (t), the various parameters in formula (5) can be determined according to the random process theory. Therefore, and It can be expressed as:

[0033]

[0034]

[0035] in The mean and standard deviation functions can be expressed as:

[0036]

[0037] In the formula is a random process C e (t) and its derivative process The mutual correlation coefficient can be calculated as follows:

[0038]

[0039] In the formula is a random process C e (t) and its derivative process The cross-correlation function can be expressed as:

[0040]

[0041] In the formula It is a derivative process The autocorrelation function of

[0042]

[0043] According to formulas (6a) to (6g), the penetration rate v in formula (5) can be calculated and determined: CN (t).

[0044] As a preference, if the time-varying carbon emissions C in step S23 e(t) is a non-Gaussian random process,

[0045] In formula (4), the penetration rate v CN The formula for the analytical solution of (t) is:

[0046]

[0047] In the formula Is a non-Gaussian process C e (t) is an equivalent transformation Gaussian process, the exact form of which depends on the normal transformation method used and the non-Gaussian process C that can be obtained. e (t) statistical information; for The time derivative process of For the derivative process The standard deviation function of is the autocorrelation coefficient Similarly, formula (7) is also applicable to non-stationary non-Gaussian processes.

[0048] Preferably, step S2 further comprises:

[0049] Step S26: If the failure probability determined in step S25 is the carbon neutral failure probability p of the component in the engineering structure system fi , then according to the failure probability p of the components in the engineering structure system fi Determine the carbon neutral failure probability p of the engineering structural system f,CN (t), and then determine the carbon neutrality index β of the engineering structure system according to formula (3) CN (t); If p determined in step S25 f,CN (t) is the failure probability of the engineering structure system, then the carbon neutrality index of the structural system β CN (t) can be directly based on the p determined in step S25 f,CN (t) and formula (3).

[0050] Preferably, according to the failure probability p of the components in the engineering structure system fi Determine the failure probability p of the structural system f,CN (t) include:

[0051] Assume that an engineering system consists of n components;

[0052] Let p fi is the probability that the i-th component does not reach the allowed carbon emissions, which can be determined by formula (2);

[0053] According to the p of each component in the n components fi , calculate the failure probability p of the engineering structure system that does not meet the allowable carbon emissionsf,CN (t).

[0054] Preferably, if the reliability analysis of the engineering system is performed based on a series system consisting of n components, the calculation formula for the failure probability of the engineering structure system not meeting the allowable carbon emission amount is:

[0055]

[0056] According to the formula (8), the failure probability p of the structural system is obtained. f,CN After finding the upper and lower bounds of (t), the carbon neutrality index β of the engineering structure system can be calculated by formula (3): CN The upper and lower bounds of (t);

[0057] Preferably, if the n components of the engineering structure system are completely related components, the failure probability p of the engineering structure system does not meet the allowable carbon emission f,CN The calculation formula of (t) is:

[0058]

[0059] The carbon neutrality index of the engineering structure system is β CN (t) can be uniquely determined by formula (3).

[0060] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0061] (1) The present invention provides a carbon neutrality index that can be used to determine whether an engineering structure system has achieved carbon neutrality throughout its entire life cycle. The carbon neutrality index can accurately, reasonably and consistently evaluate the carbon neutrality of the engineering structure system, so that users can use the evaluation results to decide whether it is necessary to reduce carbon emissions through reasonable adjustments.

[0062] (2) The present invention also provides a complete calculation method for the carbon neutrality index to ensure the accuracy and consistency of the calculation results of the index and the carbon neutrality evaluation results.

[0063] (3) The carbon neutrality evaluation index and calculation method provided by the present invention can consistently measure, predict and monitor the carbon emissions and carbon neutrality of engineering structural systems (including their structures or components) at all stages of their life cycle. It is a relatively accurate, reasonable and effective method for calculating and evaluating the carbon neutrality of engineering structural systems and components, and can be adopted by various engineering structural design specifications and standards for the design and evaluation of the carbon neutrality of engineering structural systems and their components throughout their life cycle. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0064] Example 1

[0065] This embodiment provides a carbon neutrality evaluation index and a calculation method thereof, which includes:

[0066] Step S1: Obtain the C of the engineering structure system to be evaluated e (t) and T c (t); C e (t) and T c (t) respectively represent the time-varying carbon emissions of the engineering system to be evaluated during its entire life cycle and the allowable carbon emissions during its entire life cycle;

[0067] Step S2: according to the C e (t) and T c (t), calculate the probability that the engineering structure system to be evaluated does not achieve carbon neutrality during its entire life cycle, that is, the failure probability p f,CN (t);

[0068] The probability that the engineering structure system in step S2 does not achieve carbon neutrality during its entire life cycle is defined as:

[0069] Probability of (carbon emissions ≥ target limit) (1)

[0070] Among them, the time-varying carbon emissions over the entire life cycle are derived from the engineering structure system during the entire life cycle of material and component production, planning and design, construction and transportation, operation and maintenance, and demolition and disposal, and change with time t; the target limit is the allowable carbon emissions of the engineering structure system over its entire life cycle, which is determined by the user or enforced by the regulatory agency to achieve the emission reduction target of the engineering structure system over its entire life cycle.

[0071] Furthermore, in step S2, the failure probability p f,CN The calculation formula of (t) is:

[0072] p f,CN (t) = P[C e (t)≥T c (t)]; (2)

[0073] Among them, p f,CN (t) is the failure probability, C e (t) and T c (t) respectively represent the time-varying carbon emissions of the engineering structure system to be evaluated during its entire life cycle and the allowable carbon emissions during its entire life cycle;

[0074] In step S3, according to the structural reliability theory, the β CN The calculation formula of (t) is:

[0075] β CN (t)=-Φ -1 [p f,CN(t)] (3)

[0076] Among them, β CN (t) is the carbon neutrality index used as a real-time measure of the carbon neutrality of the engineering system; -1 [·] is the inverse function of the standard normal distribution.

[0077] To determine or calculate β CN (t), the key is to derive the solution of formula (2), which is a typical "first crossing probability" problem, that is, carbon emissions C e (t) Crossing or exceeding the allowed carbon emission limit T for the first time during its life c (t). According to the time-varying reliability theory, the first crossing probability of formula (2) can usually be expressed as:

[0078]

[0079] Among them, p f,CN (0) is the failure probability of not achieving carbon neutrality at the beginning of its service life (t = 0). f,CN (0) can also be taken as zero; v CN (t) is the time-varying carbon emission C e (t) The first crossing of the allowed carbon emission T in its life c (t) The average penetration rate.

[0080] However, the average penetration rate v CN The analytical solution of (t) is not easy to obtain, and the carbon emissions C e (t) and the allowable carbon emissions T c (t) varies depending on the type of random process it follows.

[0081] In this embodiment, the following method is used to calculate the average penetration rate v CN (t) performing calculation, the step S2 specifically comprises:

[0082] Step S21: Establishing time-varying carbon emissions C e (t) Databases, including those from existing databases or from laboratory or field testing; e (t) represents the time-varying carbon emissions over the entire life cycle;

[0083] Step S22: Using the database, establish a time-varying carbon emission value C based on machine learning and statistical sampling methods. e (t) random model;

[0084] Step S23: Assume that the allowed carbon emission amount T c (t) is a deterministic time function, which determines the time-varying carbon emissions C e (t) probability distribution type and its statistical information;

[0085] Step S24: Assume that the allowed carbon emission amount T c (t) is a deterministic time function, according to the time-varying carbon emissions C e The type of random process that (t) obeys has two types of solutions:

[0086] If the time-varying carbon emission C in step S23 e (t) is a Gaussian random process, then the penetration rate v in formula (4) is calculated using formula (5) CN (t);

[0087] Specifically, if the time-varying carbon emissions C in step S23 e (t) is a Gaussian random process,

[0088] In formula (4), the penetration rate υ CN The analytical solution formula of (t) is:

[0089]

[0090] in is the time-varying carbon emission C e (t) time derivative process; and C e (t) = T c (t) is conditional The conditional mean and standard deviation functions of ; and C e (t) is the mean and standard deviation function; φ[·] and Φ[·] are the probability density function and cumulative distribution function of the standard normal, respectively; is the target carbon emission allowed c The time derivative of (t).

[0091] For a given mean function and the autocovariance function Gaussian random process C e (t), the various parameters in formula (5) can be determined according to the random process theory. Therefore, and It can be expressed as

[0092] in The mean and standard deviation functions of can be expressed as

[0093]

[0094] In the formula is a random process C e(t) and its derivative process The mutual correlation coefficient can be calculated as follows:

[0095]

[0096] In the formula is a random process C e (t) and its derivative process The cross-correlation function can be expressed as:

[0097]

[0098] In the formula It is a derivative process The autocorrelation function of

[0099]

[0100] According to formulas (6a) to (6g), the penetration rate v in formula (5) can be calculated and determined: CN (t).

[0101] If the time-varying carbon emission C in step S23 e (t) is a non-Gaussian random process, then it is converted into an equivalent Gaussian process Then use the equivalent transformation Gaussian process and its statistical information, and then the penetration rate v is calculated by formula (7) CN (t);

[0102] Specifically, if the time-varying carbon emissions C in step S23 e (t) is a non-Gaussian random process,

[0103] In formula (4), the penetration rate v CN The formula for the analytical solution of (t) is:

[0104]

[0105] In the formula Is a non-Gaussian process C e (t) is an equivalent transformation Gaussian process, the exact form of which depends on the normal transformation method used and the non-Gaussian process C that can be obtained. e (t) statistical information; for The time derivative of For the derivative process The standard deviation function of is the autocorrelation coefficient The second-order time derivative of . Similarly, formula (7) is also applicable to non-stationary non-Gaussian processes.

[0106] Step S25: Based on the penetration rate v calculated in step S24 CN (t) and the above formula (4) determine the failure probability p f,CN (t).

[0107] Step S3: According to the failure probability p f,CN (t), and use formula (3) to calculate β CN (t), the β CN (t) A carbon neutrality indicator used as a real-time measure of the carbon neutrality of engineering systems;

[0108] Step S4: according to the carbon neutrality index β CN (t) Determine whether the engineering structure system to be evaluated meets the carbon neutrality standard, so as to determine whether the engineering structure system to be evaluated needs to be adjusted to reduce carbon emissions.

[0109] Example 2

[0110] The present embodiment is different from the embodiment 1 in that the step S2 further includes:

[0111] Step S26: If the failure probability determined in step S25 is the carbon neutral failure probability p of the component in the engineering structure system fi , then according to the failure probability p of the components in the engineering structure system fi Determine the carbon neutral failure probability p of the engineering structural system f,CN (t), and then determine the carbon neutrality index β of the engineering structure system according to formula (3) CN (t); If p determined in step S25 f,CN (t) is the failure probability of the engineering structure system, then the carbon neutrality index of the structural system β CN (t) can be directly based on the p determined in step S25 f,CN (t) and formula (3).

[0112] The failure probability p of the components in the engineering structure system fi Determine the failure probability p of the structural system f,CN (t) include:

[0113] Assume that an engineering structure system consists of n components;

[0114] Let p fi is the probability that the i-th component does not reach the allowed carbon emissions, which can be determined by formula (2);

[0115] According to the p of each component in the n components fi , calculate the failure probability p of the engineering structure system that does not meet the allowable target carbon emissions f,CN(t).

[0116] If the reliability analysis of the engineering structure system is performed based on a series system consisting of n components, the calculation formula for the failure probability of the engineering structure system not meeting the allowable carbon emissions is:

[0117]

[0118] According to the formula (8), the failure probability p of the structural system is obtained. f,CN After finding the upper and lower bounds of (t), the carbon neutrality index β of the engineering system can be calculated by formula (3): CN The upper and lower bounds of (t);

[0119] Formula (8) is obtained by analyzing the reliability of an engineering system based on a series system consisting of n components. In practice, this modeling may be conservative. In practice, different allowable carbon emission targets can be assigned to different components of the engineering structure system according to the significance standard for adjustment. For example, for those heavy emission and critical components, such as the concrete wall of the structure, the allowable carbon emission target can be smaller than those light emission and non-critical components, such as the partition wall of the structure. In this way, the carbon neutrality index β of the structural system can be achieved. CN (t) Balance between accuracy and conservatism of calculations.

[0120] In addition, if the n components of the engineering structure system are completely related components, the failure probability p of the engineering structure system does not meet the allowable carbon emission f,CN The calculation formula of (t) is:

[0121]

[0122] The carbon neutrality index of the engineering structure system is β CN (t) can be uniquely determined by formula (3).

[0123] It is easy to understand that those skilled in the art can combine, split, reorganize, etc. the embodiments of the present application to obtain other embodiments based on one or several embodiments provided in the present application, and these embodiments do not exceed the protection scope of the present application.

[0124] The above is a schematic description of the present invention and its implementation methods, which is not restrictive. The embodiments only show part of the implementation methods of the present invention, and the actual structure is not limited thereto. Therefore, if a person skilled in the art is inspired by it and, without departing from the purpose of the invention, designs a carbon neutrality concept, evaluation index definition, calculation method and implementation method similar to the technical solution without creativity, they should all fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for calculating carbon neutrality evaluation index, characterized in that: Step S1: Obtain the C of the engineering structure system to be evaluated e (t) and T c (t); C e (t) and T c (t) respectively represent the time-varying carbon emissions of the engineering structure system to be evaluated during its entire life cycle and the allowable carbon emissions during its entire life cycle; Step S2: according to the C e (t) and T c (t), calculate the probability that the engineering structure system to be evaluated does not achieve carbon neutrality during its entire life cycle, that is, the failure probability p f,CN (t); Step S3: According to the failure probability p f,CN (t), calculate β CN (t), the β CN (t) is the carbon neutrality index used as a real-time measure of the carbon neutrality of the engineering structure system; Step S4: according to the carbon neutrality index β CN (t) determining whether the engineering structure system to be evaluated meets the carbon neutrality standard, so as to determine whether the engineering structure system to be evaluated needs to be adjusted to reduce carbon emissions; In step S2, the failure probability p f,CN The calculation formula of (t) is: p f,CN (t)=P[C e (t)≥T c (t)] (2) Among them, p f,CN (t) is the failure probability, C e (t) and T c (t) respectively represent the time-varying carbon emissions of the engineering structure system to be evaluated during its entire life cycle and the allowable carbon emissions during its entire life cycle; In step S3, according to the structural reliability theory, the β CN The calculation formula of (t) is: b CN (t)=-Φ -1 [p f,CN (t)] (3) Among them, β CN (t) is the carbon neutrality index used as a real-time measure of the carbon neutrality of the engineering structure system; Φ -1 [·] is the inverse function of the standard normal distribution; The failure probability p f,CN (t) According to the time-varying reliability theory, the first crossing probability of formula (2) is expressed as: Among them, p f,CN (0) is the failure probability of not achieving carbon neutrality at the beginning of its service life (t = 0); υ CN (t) is the time-varying carbon emission C e (t) The first crossing of the allowed carbon emission T in its life c (t) average penetration rate; Step S2 specifically includes: Step S21: Establishing time-varying carbon emissions C e (t) Databases, including those from existing databases or from laboratory or field testing; e (t) represents the time-varying carbon emissions over the entire life cycle; Step S22: Using the database, establish a time-varying carbon emission value C based on machine learning and statistical sampling methods. e (t) random model; Step S23: Assume that the allowed carbon emission amount T c (t) is a deterministic time function, which determines the time-varying carbon emissions C e (t) probability distribution type and its statistical information; Step S24: If the time-varying carbon emissions C in step S23 e (t) is a Gaussian random process, then the penetration rate υ in formula (4) is calculated using the formula CN (t); If the time-varying carbon emission C in step S23 e (t) is a non-Gaussian random process, then it is converted into an equivalent Gaussian process Then use the equivalent Gaussian process and its statistical information, and then the penetration rate v is calculated by another formula CN (t); Step S25: Based on the penetration rate v calculated in step S24 CN (t) and the above formula (4) determine the failure probability p f,CN (t).

2. A carbon neutrality evaluation index calculation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The probability that the engineering structure system in step S2 does not achieve carbon neutrality during its entire life cycle is defined as: Probability of (carbon emissions ≥ target limit) (1) Among them, the carbon emissions are the time-varying carbon emissions of the engineering structure system during its entire life cycle, which are derived from the engineering structure system during the entire life cycle of material and component production, planning and design, construction and transportation, operation and maintenance, and demolition and disposal, and change with time t; the target limit is the allowable carbon emissions of the engineering structure system during its entire life cycle, which is determined by the user or enforced by the regulatory agency to achieve the emission reduction target of the engineering structure system throughout its life cycle.

3. A carbon neutrality evaluation index calculation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: If the time-varying carbon emission C in step S23 e (t) is a Gaussian random process, In formula (4), the penetration rate v CN The analytical solution formula of (t) is: in is the time-varying carbon emission C e (t) time derivative process; and C e (t) = T c (t) is conditional The conditional mean and standard deviation functions of ; and C e (t) is the mean and standard deviation function; φ[·] and Φ[·] are the probability density function and cumulative distribution function of the standard normal, respectively; is the allowable carbon emission T c The time derivative of (t); For a given mean function and the autocovariance function Gaussian random process C e (t), according to the random process theory, determine the various parameters in formula (5); therefore, and It is expressed as: in The mean and standard deviation functions are expressed as: In the formula is a random process C e (t) and its derivative process The mutual correlation coefficient is calculated as follows: In the formula is a random process C e (t) and its derivative process The cross-correlation function is expressed as: In the formula It is a derivative process The autocorrelation function is expressed as: According to formulas (6a) to (6g), the penetration rate v in formula (5) can be calculated and determined: CN (t).

4. A carbon neutrality evaluation index calculation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: If the time-varying carbon emission C in step S23 e (t) is a non-Gaussian random process, In formula (4), the penetration rate υ CN The formula for the analytical solution of (t) is: In the formula Is a non-Gaussian process C e (t) is an equivalent transformation Gaussian process; for The time derivative of For the derivative process The standard deviation function of is the autocorrelation coefficient The second-order time derivative of .

5. A carbon neutrality evaluation index calculation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step S2 also includes: Step S26: If the failure probability determined in step S25 is the carbon neutral failure probability p of the component in the engineering structure system fi , then according to the failure probability p of the components in the engineering structure system fi Determine the carbon neutral failure probability p of the engineering structural system f,CN (t), and then determine the carbon neutrality index β of the engineering structure system according to formula (3) CN (t); If p determined in step S25 f,CN (t) is the carbon neutrality failure probability of the engineering structure system, then the carbon neutrality index of the engineering structure system β CN (t) directly according to the p determined in step S25 f,CN (t) and formula (3).

6. According to the carbon neutrality evaluation index calculation method of claim 5, according to the carbon neutrality failure probability p of the components in the engineering structure system fi Determine the carbon neutral failure probability p of the engineering structural system f,CN (t) include: Assume that an engineering structure system consists of n components; set up p fi is the probability that the i-th component does not reach the allowed carbon emissions, determined by formula (2); According to the p of each component in the n components fi , calculate the failure probability p of the engineering structure system that does not meet the allowable carbon emissions f,CN (t).

7. According to a carbon neutrality evaluation index calculation method according to claim 6, if the reliability analysis of the engineering structure system is performed based on a series system composed of n components, the calculation formula for the failure probability of the engineering structure system not meeting the allowable carbon emissions is: According to the formula (8), the failure probability p of the engineering structure system is obtained. f,CN After finding the upper and lower bounds of (t), the carbon neutrality index β of the engineering structure system is calculated according to formula (3): CN The upper and lower bounds of (t).

8. According to a carbon neutrality evaluation index calculation method according to claim 6, if the n components of the engineering structure system are completely related components, the failure probability p of the engineering structure system not meeting the allowable carbon emissions f,CN The calculation formula of (t) is: Carbon neutrality index β of the engineering structure system CN (t) is uniquely determined by formula (3).

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