A prediction method and prediction system for the orbit of a space maneuvering target

Abstract

The present invention relates to the field of space traffic management technology, and specifically to a prediction method and prediction system for the orbit of a space maneuvering target. The method of this scheme sets the initial state quantity of the space maneuvering target according to the initial arc segment, and constructs a target maneuvering force model at the same time, and then performs orbit integration on the initial state quantity to determine the state parameters and state transfer matrix of the space maneuvering target in the target observation period, and then determines the reference value of the observation quantity of the space maneuvering target according to the state parameter, and calculates the observation residual according to the reference value and actual value of the observation quantity, and establishes an observation equation according to the observation residual, the state transfer matrix, and the partial derivative of the reference value of the observation quantity relative to the state parameter to correct the initial state quantity, thereby realizing the prediction of the orbit of the space maneuvering target. The scheme of this application can be used to predict the future orbit of the space maneuvering target, and can realize the calculation of the collision probability of the space maneuvering target, thereby supporting the space traffic management task.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of space traffic management, and in particular to a prediction method and a prediction system for a space maneuvering target orbit. Background Art

[0002] When space targets are operating in space, they will perform orbital maneuvers to maintain or reach a certain orbital state. At present, the operation of space targets in space is based on the precise orbit determination method of classical orbital mechanics, which does not take into account the maneuverability of the target. Therefore, it is impossible to determine the high-precision orbit of the maneuvering target, and thus it is impossible to accurately predict and analyze the collision probability of the target. Summary of the invention

[0003] The present invention provides a method and system for predicting the orbit of a space maneuvering target, which effectively solves the problem in the prior art that the orbit of a space maneuvering target in space cannot be accurately predicted.

[0004] According to the first aspect, an embodiment provides a method for predicting a space maneuvering target orbit, comprising:

[0005] Step 10: Acquire observation data of the trajectory of the space maneuvering target; the observation data includes any number of arcs in the optical observation data and / or radar observation data;

[0006] Step 20: selecting one of the plurality of arc segments as an initial arc segment;

[0007] Step 30: setting the initial state quantity of the space maneuvering target according to the initial orbit parameters and arc state of the initial arc; the initial state quantity includes initial position, initial velocity and initial maneuvering force model parameters;

[0008] Step 40: constructing a maneuvering force model of the space maneuvering target, and using the maneuvering force model and a preset classical target perturbation force model to perform orbital integration on the initial state quantity of the space maneuvering target to determine the state parameters and state transfer matrix of the space maneuvering target within the target observation time period;

[0009] Step 50: determining a reference value of the observation amount of the space maneuvering target according to the state parameter;

[0010] Step 60: obtaining an actual value of the observation quantity of the space maneuvering target, and calculating an observation residual according to a reference value of the observation quantity and the actual value of the observation quantity;

[0011] Step 70: establishing an observation equation of the space maneuvering target according to the observation residual, the state transfer matrix, and the partial derivative of the reference value of the observation quantity with respect to the state parameter;

[0012] Step 80: Correcting the initial state quantity according to the observation equation to obtain a corrected state parameter;

[0013] Step 90: Predicting the orbit of the space maneuvering target based on the corrected state parameters.

[0014] In one embodiment, the use of the maneuvering force model and the preset classical target perturbation force model to perform orbital integration on the initial state quantity of the space maneuvering target to determine the state parameters and state transfer matrix of the space maneuvering target in the target observation time period includes:

[0015] Calculate the perturbation force of the space maneuvering target at the integration time according to the preset classical target perturbation force model, and calculate the maneuvering force of the space maneuvering target at the integration time according to the maneuvering force model; the integration time is any time within the target observation time period;

[0016] Calculating the partial derivative of the perturbation force of the space maneuvering target with respect to the initial state quantity, and calculating the partial derivative of the maneuvering force of the space maneuvering target with respect to the initial state quantity;

[0017] The perturbation force, maneuvering force, partial derivative of the perturbation force with respect to the initial state quantity, and partial derivative of the maneuvering force with respect to the initial state quantity of the space maneuvering target within the target observation time period are integrated to obtain the state parameters and state transfer matrix of the space maneuvering target within the target observation time period.

[0018] In one implementation, determining a reference value of the observation amount of the space maneuvering target according to the state parameter includes:

[0019] Obtaining position parameters in the state parameters;

[0020] A reference value of the observation quantity of the space maneuvering target is obtained according to the position parameter.

[0021] In one implementation, the obtaining of the actual value of the observed value of the space maneuvering target includes:

[0022] Measuring observation data of the space maneuvering target at the target time;

[0023] According to the observation data of the space maneuvering target at the target time, the actual value of the observation amount of the space maneuvering target is obtained.

[0024] In one implementation, the observation equation of the space maneuvering target is expressed as:

[0025] ;

[0026] In the formula, represents the observed residual, represents the state transfer matrix, represents the partial derivative of the reference value of the observed quantity with respect to the state parameter, Represents the initial state correction parameter.

[0027] In one implementation, the initial state quantity is corrected according to the observation equation to obtain a corrected state parameter, including:

[0028] Obtaining the initial state quantity correction parameter according to the observation equation;

[0029] The initial state quantity is corrected according to the initial state quantity correction parameter to obtain a corrected state parameter.

[0030] In one embodiment, after obtaining the corrected state parameter, the method further includes:

[0031] The corrected state parameters are substituted as the initial state quantities in step 40 for loop iteration until the initial state quantity correction parameters of the observation equation in step 70 converge to preset values, and then the current initial state quantity is corrected according to the current initial state quantity correction parameters to obtain the final corrected state parameters.

[0032] According to the second aspect, an embodiment provides a system for predicting the orbit of a space maneuvering target, including:

[0033] An acquisition module, used for acquiring observation data of the trajectory of the space maneuvering target; the observation data includes any number of arcs in the optical observation data and / or radar observation data;

[0034] A selection module, used for selecting one of the plurality of arc segments as an initial arc segment;

[0035] An initial state quantity setting module, used to set the initial state quantity of the space maneuvering target according to the initial orbit parameters and arc state of the initial arc segment; the initial state quantity includes an initial position, an initial velocity and an initial maneuvering force model parameter;

[0036] After constructing the maneuvering force model of the space maneuvering target, the orbital integration module is used to perform orbital integration on the initial state quantity of the space maneuvering target by using the maneuvering force model and the preset classical target perturbation force model to determine the state parameters and state transfer matrix of the space maneuvering target in the target observation time period;

[0037] An observation reference value determination module, used to determine a reference value of the observation of the space maneuvering target according to the state parameter;

[0038] An observation residual calculation module, used for obtaining the actual value of the observation quantity of the space maneuvering target, and calculating the observation residual according to the reference value of the observation quantity and the actual value of the observation quantity;

[0039] An observation equation establishment module, used to establish an observation equation of a space maneuvering target according to the observation residual, the state transfer matrix, and the partial derivative of the reference value of the observation quantity with respect to the state parameter;

[0040] A correction module, used for correcting the initial state quantity according to the observation equation to obtain corrected state parameters, wherein the corrected state parameters include a corrected initial position, a corrected initial speed and a corrected initial maneuvering force model parameter;

[0041] The orbit prediction module is used to predict the orbit of the space maneuvering target according to the corrected state parameters.

[0042] According to a third aspect, an embodiment provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored. The computer program can be executed by a processor to implement the method as described above.

[0043] According to a fourth aspect, an embodiment provides a computer program product, comprising a computer program and / or instructions, wherein the computer program and / or instructions implement the method described above when executed by a processor.

[0044] According to the above embodiment, a prediction method / prediction system for the orbit of a space maneuvering target is selected from several arcs of the acquired space maneuvering target as the initial arc, and the initial state quantity of the space maneuvering target is set according to the orbit parameters and arc state of the initial arc, and the target maneuvering force model is constructed at the same time, and then the initial state quantity is orbitally integrated to determine the state parameters and state transfer matrix of the space maneuvering target in the target observation period, and then the reference value of the observation quantity of the space maneuvering target is determined according to the state parameter, and the observation residual is calculated according to the reference value and the actual value of the observation quantity, and then the observation equation of the space maneuvering target is established according to the observation residual, the state transfer matrix, and the partial derivative of the reference value of the observation quantity relative to the state parameter, and then the initial state quantity is corrected according to the observation equation to obtain the corrected state parameter, and finally the orbit of the space maneuvering target is predicted by the corrected state parameter. By adopting the above scheme of the present application, the future orbit of the space maneuvering target can be accurately predicted according to the corrected state parameter of the space maneuvering target, and the trajectory of the space maneuvering target can be analyzed according to the target orbit information of the existing catalog library, so as to realize the accurate prediction of the collision probability of the space maneuvering target, thereby supporting the space traffic management task. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0045] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of a method for predicting the orbit of a space maneuvering target in this embodiment;

[0046] Figure 2 This is a flow chart of performing orbital integration on the initial state parameters of a space maneuvering target in this embodiment;

[0047] Figure 3 A flow chart for determining a reference value of an observed quantity of a space maneuvering target according to the present embodiment;

[0048] Figure 4 This is a flow chart of obtaining the corrected state parameters of this embodiment;

[0049] Figure 5 This is a structural block diagram of the system for predicting the orbit of a space maneuvering target according to this embodiment.

[0050] Figure numerals: 1. Acquisition module; 2. Selection module; 3. Initial state quantity setting module; 4. Orbit integration module; 5. Observation reference value determination module; 6. Observation residual calculation module; 7. Observation equation establishment module; 8. Correction module; 9. Orbit prediction module. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0051] The present invention is further described in detail below by specific embodiments in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. Wherein similar elements in different embodiments adopt associated similar element numbers. In the following embodiments, many detailed descriptions are for making the present application better understood. However, those skilled in the art can easily recognize that some features can be omitted in different situations, or can be replaced by other elements, materials, methods. In some cases, some operations related to the present application are not shown or described in the specification, this is to avoid the core part of the present application being overwhelmed by too much description, and for those skilled in the art, it is not necessary to describe these related operations in detail, and they can fully understand the related operations according to the description in the specification and the general technical knowledge in the art.

[0052] In addition, the features, operations or characteristics described in the specification can be combined in any appropriate manner to form various implementations. At the same time, the steps or actions in the method description can also be interchanged or adjusted in a manner that is obvious to those skilled in the art. Therefore, the various sequences in the specification and the drawings are only for the purpose of clearly describing a certain embodiment and are not meant to be a required sequence, unless otherwise specified that a certain sequence must be followed.

[0053] The serial numbers assigned to the components herein, such as "first", "second", etc., are only used to distinguish the objects described and do not have any order or technical meaning. The "connection" and "coupling" mentioned in this application, unless otherwise specified, include direct and indirect connections (couplings).

[0054] like Figure 1 As shown, the present embodiment provides a method for predicting the orbit of a space maneuvering target, comprising the following steps:

[0055] Step 10: Obtain observation data of the trajectory of the space maneuvering target through an acquisition module; the observation data includes any number of arcs in the optical observation data and / or radar observation data.

[0056] The observation data of the space maneuvering target trajectory acquired by the acquisition module is generally optical observation data or radar observation data. n arcs and sort them according to the observation time.

[0057] Step 20: A selection module selects one of the arc segments as an initial arc segment. In this step, the selection module selects the first arc segment of the space maneuvering target as the initial arc segment.

[0058] Step 30: The initial state quantity setting module sets the initial state quantity of the space maneuvering target according to the initial orbit parameters and arc state of the initial arc segment; the initial state quantity includes the initial position, initial velocity and initial maneuvering force model parameters.

[0059] The initial orbit parameters and arc state of the initial arc segment can be directly obtained according to the observation data, and then the initial state quantity setting module is used to set the initial state quantity of the space maneuvering target according to the initial orbit parameters and arc state of the initial arc segment. ,in, is the initial position vector, is the initial velocity vector, are the initial maneuverability model parameters.

[0060] Step 40: Construct a maneuvering force model of the space maneuvering target. The orbital integration module uses the maneuvering force model and the preset classical target perturbation force model to orbitally integrate the initial state quantity of the space maneuvering target to determine the state parameters and state transfer matrix of the space maneuvering target during the target observation time period.

[0061] The orbital integration module uses the numerical integration method to perform orbital integration on the initial state of the space maneuvering target. During the integration process, the integration time needs to be calculated according to the preset classical target perturbation dynamic model. t The force of F(t) , calculate the integral time according to the constructed maneuverability model of the space maneuvering targett Mobility F m (t) , and the integration time t The partial derivative of the perturbation force with respect to the initial state , Integration time t The partial derivative of the motor force with respect to the initial state quantity , and finally get the state parameters at the integration time X t And the state transfer matrix from the initial time to the integration time Ф ( t, t 0 ).

[0062] Step 50: The observation quantity reference value determination module determines the reference value of the observation quantity of the space maneuvering target according to the state parameter.

[0063] Step 60: The actual value of the observation quantity of the space maneuvering target is obtained, and the observation residual calculation module calculates the observation residual according to the reference value of the observation quantity and the actual value of the observation quantity.

[0064] Step 70: The observation equation building module builds the observation equation of the space maneuvering target according to the observation residual, the state transfer matrix, and the partial derivative of the reference value of the observation quantity with respect to the state parameter.

[0065] Step 80: The correction module corrects the initial state quantity according to the observation equation to obtain the corrected state parameter.

[0066] Step 90: The orbit prediction module predicts the orbit of the space maneuvering target according to the corrected state parameters.

[0067] The method for predicting the orbit of a space maneuvering target of the present embodiment, by adopting the above-mentioned scheme of the present application, can accurately predict the future orbit of the space maneuvering target according to the corrected state parameters of the space maneuvering target, and can analyze the orbit of the space maneuvering target according to the target orbit information of the existing catalog library, so as to realize the accurate calculation of the collision probability of the space maneuvering target, thereby supporting the space traffic management task.

[0068] Further, such as Figure 2 As shown, the maneuvering force model and the preset classical target perturbation force model are used to perform orbital integration on the initial state quantity of the space maneuvering target to determine the state parameters and state transfer matrix of the space maneuvering target during the target observation time period, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0069] Step 41: Calculate the perturbation force of the spatial maneuvering target at the integration time according to the preset classical target perturbation force model, and calculate the maneuvering force of the spatial maneuvering target at the integration time according to the maneuvering force model; the integration time is any time within the target observation time period.

[0070] The descriptive formula of the dynamic model of the on-orbit space maneuvering target is as follows:

[0071] ;

[0072] ;

[0073] In the formula, r 0 is the initial position; v 0 is the initial velocity; F For the power of perturbation; F m For mobility; u Represents the Earth's gravitational parameter, which is a constant. The perturbation forces include the Earth's non-spherical gravitational perturbation, the third body's gravitational perturbation, and the light pressure perturbation.

[0074] Specifically, the calculation of the perturbation force is already a very mature calculation method at present, so the perturbation force of the spatial maneuvering target at the integration time can be calculated by using a preset classic target perturbation force model, and this embodiment does not make too many requirements here.

[0075] In this embodiment, before performing orbital integration on the initial state quantity of the space maneuvering target according to the maneuvering force model, it is necessary to construct the maneuvering force model of the space maneuvering target to describe the maneuvering force of the space maneuvering target. F m , This scheme proposes to use Legendre function to represent the maneuvering force of space maneuvering target in three directions: velocity, normal direction of orbital plane and radial direction. The sum of the three directions is the maneuvering force of space maneuvering target, that is, the maneuvering force model of space maneuvering target is constructed as follows:

[0076] ;

[0077]

[0078] ;

[0079] ;

[0080] In the formula, is the maneuvering force in the direction of speed, is the maneuvering force in the normal direction of the track surface, is the radial force, where are the direction vectors in three directions respectively; is the associated Legendre function, n、m are the order and degree of the associated Legendre function respectively; are the coefficients of the Legendre functions of the corresponding orders in the corresponding directions, i.e., the maneuvering force coefficients; E It is the eccentric approach angle of the space maneuvering target. When used specifically, the highest order of the Legendre function can be selected according to the characteristics of the scene.

[0081] Step 42: Calculate the partial derivative of the perturbation force of the space maneuvering target with respect to the initial state quantity, and calculate the partial derivative of the maneuvering force of the space maneuvering target with respect to the initial state quantity.

[0082] Specifically, after solving the perturbation force and maneuvering force of the space maneuvering target in step 41, the partial derivatives of the perturbation force and maneuvering force with respect to the initial state quantity are respectively obtained, and then the integral time is obtained t The partial derivative of the perturbation force with respect to the initial state And the integral time t The partial derivative of the motor force with respect to the initial state quantity .

[0083] Step 43: Integrate the perturbation force, maneuvering force, partial derivative of the perturbation force with respect to the initial state quantity, and partial derivative of the maneuvering force with respect to the initial state quantity of the space maneuvering target during the target observation time period to obtain the state parameters and state transfer matrix of the space maneuvering target during the target observation time period.

[0084] Specifically, first, the coefficients of the maneuvering force are inverted using the least squares method to solve the high-precision orbit of the space maneuvering target. The matrix expression of the maneuvering force of the space maneuvering target is:

[0085]

[0086] in, T Represents the transformation matrix from the space maneuvering target coordinate system to the inertial system, S represents the motor model represented by Legendre function, C Represents the coefficient matrix of the mobility model.

[0087] Then, the maneuvering force coefficient is used as part of the state parameters of the space maneuvering target and solved together with the orbit parameters during the orbit determination process. At this time, the dynamic equation of the space maneuvering target is:

[0088] ;

[0089] ;

[0090] In the formula, X is the state parameter, X =[ r,v,C ],in, r is the position of the spatial maneuvering target at the time of target observation, vis the speed of the space maneuvering target at the time of target observation, C is the maneuverability model parameter of the space maneuvering target at the target observation time; B is the coefficient, .

[0091] According to the above formula, the state parameters are calculated X .

[0092] State transition matrix Ф ( t, t 0 ) is the partial derivative matrix of the state parameters of the space maneuvering target from the initial time to the integration time relative to the initial state quantity. The state transfer matrix of the space maneuvering target needs to be calculated in the least squares method. The derivative of the state transfer matrix is:

[0093] ;

[0094] According to the above formula, the state transfer matrix is ​​calculated Ф ( t, t 0 ).

[0095] Further, such as Figure 3 As shown, determining the reference value of the observation amount of the space maneuvering target according to the state parameter specifically includes the following steps:

[0096] Step 51: Obtain position parameters in the state parameters;

[0097] Step 52: Obtain a reference value of the observation quantity of the space maneuvering target according to the position parameter in the state parameter.

[0098] In the above steps, since the state parameters are calculated in step 40, the position parameters can be directly obtained from the state parameters, and the reference value of the observation amount of the space maneuvering target can be obtained according to the position parameters. .

[0099] In this embodiment, obtaining the actual value of the observation amount of the space maneuvering target includes: measuring the observation data of the space maneuvering target at the target time; and obtaining the actual value of the observation amount of the space maneuvering target according to the observation data of the space maneuvering target at the target time.

[0100] The observation data of the space maneuvering target at the target time is obtained by optical observation data or radar observation data. The actual value of the observation quantity of the space maneuvering target can be obtained according to the observation data at the target time. .

[0101] Then, according to the reference value of the observed quantity of the space maneuvering target And the actual value of the observed quantity of the space maneuvering target , to calculate the observation residual ,in, V is the observed residual.

[0102] Furthermore, in this embodiment, the expression of the observation equation of the space maneuvering target is:

[0103] ;

[0104] In the formula, represents the observed residual, represents the state transfer matrix, represents the partial derivative of the reference value of the observed quantity with respect to the state parameter, Represents the initial state correction parameter.

[0105] Further, such as Figure 4 As shown, the initial state quantity is corrected according to the observation equation to obtain the corrected state parameters, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0106] Step 81: Obtain the initial state correction parameters according to the observation equation.

[0107] Step 82: Correct the initial state quantity according to the initial state quantity correction parameter to obtain a corrected state parameter.

[0108] Specifically, according to the observation equation established in the above embodiment, the initial state correction parameter is solved under the least squares criterion. Then, the initial state is corrected by the initial state correction parameter, that is, , then the corrected state parameters can be obtained .

[0109] After calculating the accurate state parameters of the space maneuvering target, the orbit of the space maneuvering target in the future can be calculated based on the preset perturbation force model and the preset maneuvering force model. Then, the collision probability of the space maneuvering target can be analyzed based on the target orbit information in the existing catalog library, thereby supporting the space traffic management task.

[0110] Furthermore, after obtaining the corrected state parameters, the method for predicting the orbit of a space maneuvering target in this embodiment further includes:

[0111] The corrected state parameters are substituted as the initial state quantities in step 40 for loop iteration until the initial state quantity correction parameters of the observation equation in step 70 converge to the preset values, and then the current initial state quantities are corrected according to the current initial state quantity correction parameters to obtain the final corrected state parameters.

[0112] In this embodiment, in order to ensure the accuracy of the calculated corrected state parameters, after step 82, the corrected state parameters are calculated. Return to step 40 as the initial state quantity, and then perform iterative solution until the correction parameter of the initial state quantity converges to the preset value. After convergence, the final state parameter can be obtained. .

[0113] like Figure 5 As shown, the present embodiment provides a prediction system for the orbit of a space maneuvering target, including an acquisition module, a selection module, an initial state quantity setting module, an orbit integration module, an observation quantity reference value determination module, an observation residual calculation module, an observation equation establishment module, a correction module and an orbit prediction module. Among them, the acquisition module is used to acquire the observation data of the orbit of the space maneuvering target; the observation data includes any several arc segments in the optical observation data and / or the radar observation data; the selection module is used to select one of the several arc segments as the initial arc segment; the initial state quantity setting module is used to set the initial state quantity of the space maneuvering target according to the initial orbit parameters and arc segment state of the initial arc segment; the initial state quantity includes the initial position, the initial velocity and the initial maneuvering force model parameters; after constructing the maneuvering force model of the space maneuvering target, the orbit integration module is used to use the maneuvering force model and the preset classical target perturbation force model to perform orbit integration on the initial state quantity of the space maneuvering target to determine the position of the space maneuvering target in the target. The module is used to determine the reference value of the observation quantity of the space maneuvering target according to the state parameters; the observation residual calculation module is used to obtain the actual value of the observation quantity of the space maneuvering target, and calculate the observation residual according to the reference value of the observation quantity and the actual value of the observation quantity; the observation equation establishment module is used to establish the observation equation of the space maneuvering target according to the observation residual, the state transfer matrix, and the partial derivative of the reference value of the observation quantity with respect to the state parameters; the correction module is used to correct the initial state quantity according to the observation equation to obtain the corrected state parameters; the orbit prediction module is used to predict the running orbit of the space maneuvering target according to the corrected state parameters.

[0114] The space maneuvering target orbit prediction system of the present embodiment has been described in detail in the above-mentioned space maneuvering target orbit prediction method embodiment, in view of the roles and functions of the acquisition module, selection module, initial state quantity setting module, orbit integration module, observation reference value determination module, observation residual calculation module, observation equation establishment module, correction module and orbit prediction module, which will not be elaborated in detail in the present embodiment.

[0115] This embodiment provides a computer readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, and the computer program can be executed by a processor to implement the above method. Since the method for predicting the orbit of a space maneuvering target has been described in detail in the above embodiment, this embodiment will not be described in detail here.

[0116] The present embodiment provides a computer program product, including a computer program and / or an instruction, wherein the computer program and / or the instruction implement the above method when executed by a processor. Since the method for predicting the orbit of a space maneuvering target has been described in detail in the above embodiment, this embodiment will not be described in detail here.

[0117] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that all or part of the functions of the various methods in the above-mentioned embodiments can be implemented by hardware or by computer programs. When all or part of the functions in the above-mentioned embodiments are implemented by computer programs, the program can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, and the storage medium can include: read-only memory, random access memory, disk, optical disk, hard disk, etc., and the program is executed by a computer to implement the above-mentioned functions. For example, the program is stored in the memory of the device, and when the program in the memory is executed by the processor, all or part of the above-mentioned functions can be implemented. In addition, when all or part of the functions in the above-mentioned embodiments are implemented by computer programs, the program can also be stored in a storage medium such as a server, another computer, disk, optical disk, flash disk or mobile hard disk, and can be downloaded or copied and saved in the memory of the local device, or the system of the local device is updated, and when the program in the memory is executed by the processor, all or part of the functions in the above-mentioned embodiments can be implemented.

[0118] The above specific examples are used to illustrate the present invention, which is only used to help understand the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. For those skilled in the art, according to the concept of the present invention, some simple deductions, modifications or substitutions can be made.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the orbit of a space maneuvering target, characterized in that: include: Step 10: Acquire observation data of the trajectory of the space maneuvering target; the observation data includes any number of arcs in the optical observation data and / or radar observation data; Step 20: selecting one of the plurality of arc segments as an initial arc segment; Step 30: setting the initial state quantity of the space maneuvering target according to the initial orbit parameters and arc state of the initial arc; the initial state quantity includes initial position, initial velocity and initial maneuvering force model parameters; Step 40: constructing a maneuvering force model of the space maneuvering target, calculating the perturbation force of the space maneuvering target at the integration time according to a preset classical target perturbation force model, and calculating the maneuvering force of the space maneuvering target at the integration time according to the maneuvering force model; The integration moment is any moment within the target observation time period; the partial derivative of the perturbation force of the space maneuvering target with respect to the initial state quantity is calculated, and the partial derivative of the maneuvering force of the space maneuvering target with respect to the initial state quantity is calculated; the perturbation force, maneuvering force, partial derivative of the perturbation force with respect to the initial state quantity, and partial derivative of the maneuvering force with respect to the initial state quantity of the space maneuvering target within the target observation time period are integrated to obtain the state parameters and state transfer matrix of the space maneuvering target within the target observation time period; Step 50: determining a reference value of the observation amount of the space maneuvering target according to the state parameter; Step 60: obtaining an actual value of the observation quantity of the space maneuvering target, and calculating an observation residual according to a reference value of the observation quantity and the actual value of the observation quantity; Step 70: establishing an observation equation of the space maneuvering target according to the observation residual, the state transfer matrix, and the partial derivative of the reference value of the observation quantity with respect to the state parameter; Step 80: correcting the initial state quantity according to the observation equation to obtain corrected state parameters, wherein the corrected state parameters include a corrected initial position, a corrected initial speed, and a corrected initial maneuvering force model parameter; Step 90: Predicting the orbit of the space maneuvering target based on the corrected state parameters.

2. The prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: Determining the reference value of the observation amount of the space maneuvering target according to the state parameter includes: Obtaining position parameters in the state parameters; A reference value of the observation quantity of the space maneuvering target is obtained according to the position parameter.

3. The prediction method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The obtaining of the actual value of the observed value of the space maneuvering target comprises: Measuring observation data of the space maneuvering target at the target time; According to the observation data of the space maneuvering target at the target time, the actual value of the observation amount of the space maneuvering target is obtained.

4. The prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The expression of the observation equation of the space maneuvering target is: ； In the formula, represents the observed residual, represents the state transfer matrix, represents the partial derivative of the reference value of the observed quantity with respect to the state parameter, Represents the initial state correction parameter.

5. The prediction method according to claim 4, characterized in that: The initial state quantity is corrected according to the observation equation to obtain a corrected state parameter, including: Obtaining the initial state quantity correction parameter according to the observation equation; The initial state quantity is corrected according to the initial state quantity correction parameter to obtain a corrected state parameter.

6. The prediction method according to claim 5, characterized in that: After obtaining the corrected state parameters, the method further includes: The corrected state parameters are substituted as the initial state quantities in step 40 for loop iteration until the initial state quantity correction parameters of the observation equation in step 70 converge to preset values, and then the current initial state quantity is corrected according to the current initial state quantity correction parameters to obtain the final corrected state parameters.

7. A prediction system for the orbit of a space maneuvering target, characterized in that: include: An acquisition module, used for acquiring observation data of the trajectory of the space maneuvering target; the observation data includes any number of arcs in the optical observation data and / or radar observation data; A selection module, used for selecting one of the plurality of arc segments as an initial arc segment; An initial state quantity setting module, used to set the initial state quantity of the space maneuvering target according to the initial orbit parameters and arc state of the initial arc segment; the initial state quantity includes an initial position, an initial velocity and an initial maneuvering force model parameter; After constructing the maneuverability model of the space maneuvering target, the orbit integration module is used to calculate the perturbation force of the space maneuvering target at the integration time according to the preset classical target perturbation force model, and calculate the maneuverability of the space maneuvering target at the integration time according to the maneuverability model; the integration time is any time within the target observation time period; calculate the partial derivative of the perturbation force of the space maneuvering target with respect to the initial state quantity, and calculate the partial derivative of the maneuverability of the space maneuvering target with respect to the initial state quantity; integrate the perturbation force, maneuverability, partial derivative of the perturbation force with respect to the initial state quantity, and partial derivative of the maneuverability with respect to the initial state quantity of the space maneuvering target within the target observation time period to obtain the state parameters and state transfer matrix of the space maneuvering target within the target observation time period; An observation reference value determination module, used to determine a reference value of the observation of the space maneuvering target according to the state parameter; An observation residual calculation module, used for obtaining the actual value of the observation quantity of the space maneuvering target, and calculating the observation residual according to the reference value of the observation quantity and the actual value of the observation quantity; An observation equation establishment module, used to establish an observation equation of a space maneuvering target according to the observation residual, the state transfer matrix, and the partial derivative of the reference value of the observation quantity with respect to the state parameter; A correction module, used for correcting the initial state quantity according to the observation equation to obtain corrected state parameters, wherein the corrected state parameters include a corrected initial position, a corrected initial speed and a corrected initial maneuvering force model parameter; The orbit prediction module is used to predict the orbit of the space maneuvering target according to the corrected state parameters.

8. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: A computer program is stored on the medium, and the computer program can be executed by a processor to implement the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

9. A computer program product comprising a computer program and / or instructions, characterized in that: When the computer program and / or the instructions are executed by a processor, the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6 is implemented.

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