Domino accident risk assessment method and system for crude oil storage tank boiling fire

Abstract

This application relates to the technical field of tank area fire risk assessment, and provides a method and system for assessing the risk of domino accidents caused by boiling over fires in crude oil storage tanks. i The probability of a single tank accident and the probability of the accident expansion determine the total probability of a domino accident in the tank area P D ; According to the total probability of domino accidents in the tank area P D and the accident severity E of the preset injury calibration area 区域‑标 , determine the regional accident severity E of the injury calibration area 区域‑多米诺 ;According to the regional accident severity E of the injury calibration area 区域‑多米诺 and the exposure time t of personnel in the injury calibration area, determine the burning tank P i Thermal radiation flux I in the damage calibration area during the boiling period 区域‑多米诺 ; According to the combustion tank P i Thermal radiation flux I in the damage calibration area during the boiling period 区域‑多米诺 , based on the preset damage model, determine the damage radius of the damage calibration area.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of tank area fire risk assessment, and in particular to a method and system for assessing the risk of domino accidents caused by boiling over fires in crude oil storage tanks. Background Art

[0002] Crude oil is a type of oil product with boiling-over characteristics. When a full-liquid surface fire occurs in a crude oil storage tank, if emergency response is not timely and in place, boiling-over and splashing may occur, triggering a domino effect and causing great losses.

[0003] Currently, crude oil storage tanks are becoming increasingly large and centralized. With the design and manufacture of extra-large crude oil storage tanks, the risk has increased significantly. When a crude oil tank boils over, the heat radiation flux increases significantly, easily triggering a domino effect and threatening the safety of nearby tanks and rescue workers.

[0004] Therefore, there is an urgent need to provide a technical solution to the above-mentioned deficiencies in the existing technology. Summary of the Invention

[0005] The purpose of this application is to provide a method and system for assessing the risk of domino accidents caused by boiling over fires in crude oil storage tanks, so as to solve or alleviate the problems existing in the above-mentioned prior art.

[0006] In order to achieve the above objectives, this application provides the following technical solutions:

[0007] The present application provides a domino accident risk assessment method for a crude oil storage tank boiling fire, comprising: step S101, based on the burning storage tank P i The probability of a single tank accident and the probability of accident expansion Determine the total probability P of domino accidents in the tank area D Wherein, the accident expansion probability characterizes the burning tank P i When an accident occurs, the accident spreads to the target tank P j The probability of i and j are both positive integers; P i 、P j are the i-th and j-th crude oil storage tanks in the tank area respectively; Step S102, according to the total probability P of domino accidents in the tank area D and the accident severity E of the preset injury calibration area 区域-标 , determine the regional accident severity E of the injury calibration area 区域-多米诺 Wherein, the injury calibration area includes: death area, serious injury area and light injury area; step S103, according to the regional accident severity E of the injury calibration area 区域-多米诺 and the exposure time t of personnel in the injury calibration area, determine the burning tank P iThermal radiation flux I of the damage calibration area during the boiling period 区域-多米诺 ; Step S104, according to the combustion tank P i Thermal radiation flux I of the damage calibration area during the boiling period 区域-多米诺 , based on a preset damage model, determine the damage radius of the damage calibration area.

[0008] Preferably, in step S101, according to the formula:

[0009]

[0010] Determine the total probability P of domino accidents in the tank area D ;

[0011] Where, For the combustion tank P i The corresponding probability of a single-can domino accident when an accident occurs, For the combustion tank P i The probability of a single tank accident, is the expanded probability of the accident, ttf i→j is the accident extension time, characterizing the burning tank P i When an accident occurs, the accident spreads to the target tank P j time; For the combustion tank P i The target tank P when the accident occurs j Total thermal radiation flux received; V j The target tank P j Tank volume; x is the normal distribution function integral variables; i, j∈n, i, j, n are all positive integers, and n is the number of the crude oil storage tanks in the tank area.

[0012] Preferably, according to the formula:

[0013]

[0014] Determine the combustion tank P i The target tank P when the accident occurs j Total thermal radiation flux received

[0015] Where, I x→j The target tank P j Crude oil storage tank P x The thermal radiation flux; χ is the thermal radiation coefficient, m″ is the mass combustion rate of crude oil in stable combustion, D x The crude oil storage tank P x Diameter, ΔH cis the calorific value of crude oil, η is the combustion efficiency of crude oil; The crude oil storage tank P x Flame height during boiling over, R x The crude oil storage tank P x Tank radius, d x→j The target tank P j With the crude oil storage tank P x The tank spacing between them; where x, j∈n, x, j, n are all positive integers, n is the number of the crude oil storage tanks in the tank area, and m is the number of the combustion storage tank P i The number of crude oil storage tanks affected when an accident occurs, m∈n, m is a positive integer; P x For the combustion tank P i The xth crude oil storage tank which caused a secondary accident when a boiling over accident occurred.

[0016] Preferably, step S102 includes: according to the probability of occurrence of the single tank accident and the accident calibrated severity E 区域-标 , according to the formula:

[0017]

[0018] Determine the regional risk value X of the damage calibration area 区域 ;

[0019] According to the regional risk value X of the damage calibration area 区域 And the total probability of domino accidents in the tank area P D , according to the formula:

[0020]

[0021] Determine the regional accident severity E of the injury calibration area 区域-多米诺 .

[0022] Preferably, in step S103, according to the formula:

[0023]

[0024] Determine the combustion tank P i Thermal radiation flux I in the dead zone during boiling period 死亡-多米诺 Where, E 死亡-多米诺 is the regional accident severity of the death zone, t is the combustion tank P i The exposure time of personnel in the event of an accident.

[0025] Preferably, in step S103, according to the formula:

[0026]

[0027] Determine the combustion tank P i Thermal radiation flux I of the severely injured area during the boiling period 重伤-多米诺 Where, E 重伤-多米诺 is the regional accident severity of the death zone.

[0028] Preferably, in step S103, according to the formula:

[0029]

[0030] Determine the combustion tank P i Thermal radiation flux I of the slightly injured area during the boiling period 轻伤-多米诺 Where, E 轻伤-多米诺 is the regional accident severity of the lightly injured area.

[0031] Preferably, in step S104, according to the formula:

[0032]

[0033] Determine the damage radius L of the damage calibration area 区域 Where, I 区域-多米诺 For

[0034] Combustion storage tank P i The thermal radiation flux of the damage calibration area during the boiling period, For the combustion tank P i The flame heat release rate during the boiling period; m″ is the mass combustion rate of the crude oil during stable combustion, D i For the combustion tank P i Diameter, ΔH c is the calorific value of crude oil, η is the combustion efficiency of crude oil;

[0035] Among them, I 区域-多米诺 ={I 死亡-多米诺 , I 重伤-多米诺 , I 轻伤-多米诺}, corresponding to L 区域 ={L 死亡 , L 重伤 , L 轻伤}, I 死亡-多米诺 For the combustion tank P i The thermal radiation flux of the dead zone during the boiling period, I 重伤-多米诺 For the combustion tank P i The thermal radiation flux of the severely injured area during the boiling period, I 轻伤-多米诺 For the combustion tank P i Thermal radiation flux of the slightly injured area during the boiling period, L 死亡 For the combustion tank P iDamage radius of the dead zone during the boiling period, L 重伤 For the combustion tank P i The damage radius of the seriously injured area during the boiling period, L 轻伤 For the combustion tank P i The damage radius of the lightly damaged area during the boiling period.

[0036] The present application also provides a domino accident risk assessment system for crude oil tank boiling fire, including: a probability determination unit configured to determine the probability of a crude oil tank boiling fire based on the probability of a crude oil tank boiling fire. i The probability of a single tank accident and the probability of accident expansion Determine the total probability P of domino accidents in the tank area D Wherein, the accident expansion probability characterizes the burning tank P i When an accident occurs, the accident spreads to the target tank P j The probability of i and j are both positive integers; P i 、P j are the i-th and j-th crude oil storage tanks in the tank area respectively;

[0037] The severity determination unit is configured to determine the total probability P of the domino accident in the tank area according to the total probability P D and the accident severity E of the preset injury calibration area 区域-标 , determine the regional accident severity E of the injury calibration area 区域-多米诺 ; Wherein, the injury calibration area includes: death area, serious injury area and light injury area;

[0038] The heat radiation determination unit is configured to determine the severity of the regional accident E of the injury calibration area according to the 区域-多米诺 and the exposure time t of personnel in the injury calibration area, determine the burning tank P i Thermal radiation flux I of the damage calibration area during the boiling period 区域-多米诺 ;

[0039] Damage radius unit, configured according to the burning tank P i Thermal radiation flux I of the damage calibration area during the boiling period 区域-多米诺 , based on a preset damage model, determine the damage radius of the damage calibration area.

[0040] Beneficial effects:

[0041] In the domino accident risk assessment method for crude oil storage tank boiling fire provided in the embodiment of the present application, first, based on the burning storage tank P i The probability of a single tank accident and the accident expansion probability P E , determine the total probability P of domino accidents in the tank area D, and combined with the accident calibration severity E of the preset injury calibration area 区域-标 , determine the regional accident severity E of the injury calibration area 区域-多米诺 Then, based on the severity of the regional accident in the injury calibration area and the exposure time t of the personnel in the injury calibration area, determine the burning tank P i Thermal radiation flux I in the damage calibration area during the boiling period 区域-多米诺 ; Finally, according to the combustion tank P i Thermal radiation flux I in the damage calibration area during the boiling period 区域-多米诺 Based on a pre-set injury model, the damage radius of the damage calibration area is determined. This, combined with the boiling characteristics of crude oil, analyzes the domino effect caused by the sudden increase in thermal radiation from a boiling fire in the event of an accident in a crude oil storage tank. The radii of the death zone, the serious injury zone, and the minor injury zone under the domino effect are determined, providing guidance for risk assessment, accident prevention, safety management, and emergency decision-making in crude oil storage tank boiling fires. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0042] The drawings and descriptions that constitute part of this application are intended to provide a further understanding of this application. The exemplary embodiments and descriptions of this application are intended to explain this application and do not constitute an improper limitation on this application. Among them:

[0043] Figure 1 A schematic flow chart of a domino accident risk assessment method for a crude oil storage tank boiling fire according to some embodiments of the present application;

[0044] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the arrangement of crude oil storage tanks in a tank farm according to one embodiment of the present application;

[0045] Figure 3 for Figure 2 A schematic diagram of the embodiment in which a target tank is subjected to the heat radiation flux of boiling over combustion in adjacent tanks;

[0046] Figure 4 A schematic diagram of the positional relationship between a combustion tank and a target tank according to some embodiments of the present application;

[0047] Figure 5 This is a schematic structural diagram of a domino accident risk assessment system for crude oil storage tank boiling fires provided according to some embodiments of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0048] The present application will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and in conjunction with embodiments. Each example is provided by way of explanation of the present application and does not limit the present application. In fact, it will be clear to those skilled in the art that modifications and variations can be made in the present application without departing from the scope or spirit of the present application. For example, a feature shown or described as part of one embodiment can be used in another embodiment to produce yet another embodiment. All other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art based on the embodiments in the present invention should fall within the scope of protection of the embodiments of the present invention.

[0049] Due to the unique properties of crude oil, a fire in a crude oil storage tank can, under certain conditions, develop into a boilover fire. The sudden surge in thermal radiation flux from a boilover fire can trigger a domino effect, posing a potential threat to nearby tanks and rescue workers. Therefore, analyzing the risk of boilover fires and considering the impact of the domino effect on accident consequences can help predict the spread and impact of fires, allowing for appropriate prevention and response measures when a fire occurs and providing a reference for rescue efforts.

[0050] For crude oil storage tank fires, the more mature method currently is to assess the risk through flame height and thermal radiation flux calculation models. However, the existing models do not take into account the boiling characteristics of crude oil and ignore the impact of the domino effect caused by the sudden increase in thermal radiation from boiling fires.

[0051] Based on this, this application proposes a domino accident risk assessment method for crude oil storage tank boiling fire, such as Figures 1 to 4 As shown, the evaluation method includes:

[0052] Step S101: Based on the combustion tank P i The probability of a single tank accident and the probability of accident expansion Determine the total probability P of domino accidents in the tank area D .

[0053] In a crude oil storage tank farm, there are typically n (n is a positive integer) crude oil tanks. By analyzing historical accident data from the oil depot, we can determine the probability of an accident occurring in a single crude oil tank within the farm, i.e., the single-tank accident probability. Without considering the domino effect, the single-tank accident probability is equal to the total accident probability for the tank farm.

[0054] The i-th crude oil storage tank P in the tank farm i When an accident occurs, the adjacent crude oil storage tank units are also susceptible to failure due to the heat radiation. For example, when the initial accident unit T1, that is, the first crude oil storage tank P in the tank area, 1When a boiling fire occurs, the adjacent tank units T2, T4, and T5 are easily affected by the heat radiation and fail. If any one of the tank units T2, T4, and T5 fails, it will trigger a first-level domino effect. Once the first-level domino effect occurs, other tank units T3 and T6 may also be damaged. This chain reaction forms a domino effect. The process of the domino effect shows that when a tank unit is affected, it may cause a chain failure of the adjacent tank units, thereby expanding the scale and impact of the accident. Here, the probability of accident expansion is used to calculate the probability of accident expansion. Characterization of combustion tank P i When an accident occurs, the accident spreads to the target tank P j The probability of i and j are both positive integers; P i 、P j They are the i-th and j-th crude oil storage tanks in the tank area respectively.

[0055] Furthermore, the probability of accident expansion and the probability of a single tank accident The probability of a single tank domino accident when a single crude oil storage tank in the tank area occurs can be determined. The sum of the probability of a single tank domino accident for all crude oil storage tanks in the tank area is the total probability of a tank area domino accident P. D Specifically, according to the formula:

[0056]

[0057] Determine the total probability P of domino accidents in the tank area D Where, For combustion tank P i The corresponding probability of a single-can domino accident when an accident occurs, For combustion tank P i The probability of a single tank accident, is the accident expansion probability, ttf i→j is the accident extension time, characterizing the burning tank P i When an accident occurs, the accident spreads to the target tank P j time; For combustion tank P i Target tank P when an accident occurs j Total thermal radiation flux received; V j The target tank P j Tank volume; x is the normal distribution function The integral variables are: i, j∈n, i, j, n are all positive integers, and n is the number of crude oil storage tanks in the tank area.

[0058] In this application, the boiling fire of crude oil storage tanks mainly includes two aspects of damage: overflowing high-temperature oil and suddenly rising thermal radiation flux. Usually, firebreaks are set up around crude oil storage tanks to limit the flow of overflowing oil. Therefore, the suddenly rising thermal radiation flux during the boiling period is the most important factor causing the domino effect. Therefore, the thermal radiation flux during the boiling period is regarded as the only factor causing the domino accident, that is, the fire thermal radiation flux is regarded as the expansion vector, and the propagation of the fire thermal radiation flux in the tank area is analyzed.

[0059] When a crude oil storage tank boils over and catches fire, it can easily affect adjacent crude oil storage tanks, which will also fail and boil over, forming a secondary domino effect. This chain reaction causes the scope of the accident to expand, resulting in catastrophic consequences.

[0060] Under the same-level domino effect, each target tank unit is independent of each other. When an accident occurs in the initial accident unit, the thermal radiation impact on each crude oil tank during the accident expansion process is characterized by thermal radiation flux. In other words, the thermal radiation flux is used to evaluate the impact of the fire spread on surrounding tanks when a burning tank boils over. Here, the total thermal radiation flux received by the target tank is equal to the sum of the thermal radiation flux of each boiling burning tank to the target tank. That is, according to the formula:

[0061]

[0062] Determine the combustion tank P i Target tank P when an accident occurs j Total thermal radiation flux received

[0063]

[0064] Where, I x→j The target tank P j Crude oil storage tank P x The thermal radiation flux; χ is the thermal radiation coefficient, m″ is the mass combustion rate of crude oil in stable combustion, D x Crude oil storage tank P x Diameter, ΔH c is the calorific value of crude oil, η is the combustion efficiency of crude oil; Crude oil storage tank P x Flame height during boiling over, R x Crude oil storage tank P x Tank radius, d x→j The target tank P j With crude oil storage tank P x The tank spacing between them; where x, j∈n, x, j, n are all positive integers, n is the number of crude oil storage tanks in the tank area, m is the number of combustion tanks P iThe number of crude oil storage tanks affected when an accident occurs, m∈n, m is a positive integer; P x For combustion tank P i The xth crude oil storage tank that caused the secondary accident when the boiling accident occurred. x A secondary accident occurred, and the target tank P j impact, that is, the target tank P j To be simultaneously affected by the burning tank P i and the crude oil storage tank P that caused the secondary accident x The influence of thermal radiation.

[0065] In a specific tank farm scenario for crude oil storage, the crude oil storage tanks are atmospheric pressure external floating roof tanks with a diameter of 28 meters and a height of 15.85 meters. The filling factor is 0.85 to 0.9, and the distance between the crude oil storage tanks is 15 meters. Each crude oil storage tank stores crude oil of the same properties.

[0066] When a boilover fire occurs in the initial accident unit T1, the adjacent tank units T2, T4, and T5 are susceptible to failure due to the heat radiation. If any of the tank units T2, T4, and T5 fails, a primary domino effect will be triggered. Once the primary domino effect occurs, the other tank units T3 and T6 may also be damaged, forming a chain reaction that forms a domino effect.

[0067] Under the same-level domino effect, each target unit is independent of each other, and the effectiveness of one target unit will not affect other target units. By calculating the combustion tank P i Target tank P when an accident occurs j Total thermal radiation flux received Evaluate the impact of fire spread on surrounding tanks. Then, combine the expansion probability Get the final total probability P of domino accidents in the tank area D As shown in Table 1:

[0068] Table 1 Total probability of domino accidents in tank areas

[0069]

[0070] Through calculation, it can be obtained that when a boiling fire occurs in the T1 tank, the heat radiation received by the T2 and T4 tanks is 58.96kW / m 2 The thermal radiation received by the T5 tank is 29.49kW / m 2The failure time (accident expansion time) of tanks T2 and T4 was 2.49 minutes, a first-level domino accident. However, the thermal radiation effect of tank T1 on tank T5 alone lasted for 5.44 minutes, which was longer than the failure time of tanks T2 and T4. That is, after tanks T2 and T4 failed, tanks T1, T2, and T4 jointly generated thermal radiation intensity on tank T5, causing it to fail 0.88 minutes later. Therefore, the failure of tank T5 was a second-level domino expansion accident.

[0071] Assuming that the interaction between the same-level domino effect accident units is negligible, that is, T3 and T5 do not affect each other. Tank T3 is affected by the thermal radiation of tank T2 and fails after 2.49 minutes, which is also a secondary domino expansion accident; tank T5 fails only 0.88 minutes after the failure of tanks T2 and T4, which is less than the failure time caused by the single effect of tank T2 on tank T3. Therefore, before tank T3 fails, tank T6 is affected by the combined effect of tanks T2 and T5, and the thermal radiation flux it receives is 88.45kW / m 2 , and failed after 1.57 minutes, which is a third-level domino effect diffusion accident. Among them, the expansion time and expansion probability of the domino effect of each tank are shown in Table 2:

[0072] Table 2 Domino effect expansion time and expansion probability of each tank

[0073]

[0074]

[0075] Step S102: Based on the total probability of domino accidents in the tank area P D and the accident severity E of the preset injury calibration area 区域-标 , determine the regional accident severity E of the injury calibration area 区域-多米诺 .

[0076] In this application, the accident impact area is divided into different injury calibration zones according to the different degrees of injury to personnel in the event of a boilover fire in a crude oil storage tank. Specifically, the injury calibration zones include: a death zone, a severe injury zone, and a minor injury zone. In the death zone, the probability of injury is 100%, and the probability of death if injured is 50%; in the severe injury zone, the probability of injury (second-degree burns) is 50%, and the probability of death if second-degree burns are sustained is 30%; in the minor injury zone, the probability of injury (first-degree burns) is 50%, and the probability of death if first-degree burns are sustained is 10%.

[0077] In different injury calibration areas, the accident calibration severity E 区域-标It is equal to the product of the probability of injury to people in the corresponding area and the probability of death when people are injured. In other words, the accident severity E in the death zone is 死亡-标 =0.5, the accident severity level E in the serious injury area 重伤-标 =0.15, the accident severity level E in the light injury zone 轻伤-标 =0.05.

[0078] Without considering the domino effect, the probability of a single tank accident is equal to the total probability of an accident in the tank area. and the accident severity E 区域-标 , determine the regional risk value X within the damage calibration area 区域 ; Then, according to the regional risk value X of the damage calibration area 区域 and the total probability of domino accidents in the tank area P D , determine the regional accident severity E of the injury calibration area 区域-多米诺

[0079] That is, according to the formula:

[0080]

[0081] Determine the regional accident severity E of the injury calibration area 区域-多米诺 .

[0082] Step S103: Determine the severity of the accident E in the injury calibration area. 区域-多米诺 and the exposure time t of personnel in the injury calibration area, determine the burning tank P i Thermal radiation flux I in the damage calibration area during the boiling period 区域-多米诺 .

[0083] Under the influence of the domino effect, when a boiling fire occurs in a crude oil storage tank in a tank area, the heat radiation flux in different ranges is different, and the damage to personnel is different. In this application, according to the formula:

[0084]

[0085] Determine the combustion tank P i Thermal radiation flux I in the dead zone during boiling period 死亡-多米诺 Where, E 死亡-多米诺 is the regional accident severity of the death zone, t is the burning tank P i The exposure time of personnel in the event of an accident.

[0086] According to the formula:

[0087]

[0088] Determine the combustion tank P iThermal radiation flux I in the severely injured area during the boiling period 重伤-多米诺 Where, E 重伤-多米诺 The regional accident severity of the death zone.

[0089] According to the formula:

[0090]

[0091] Determine the combustion tank P i Thermal radiation flux I in the slightly damaged area during the boiling period 轻伤-多米诺 Where, E 轻伤-多米诺 The severity of the regional accident is in the light injury zone.

[0092] Step S104: According to the combustion tank P i Thermal radiation flux I in the damage calibration area during the boiling period 区域-多米诺 , based on the preset damage model, determine the damage radius of the damage calibration area.

[0093] Different sizes of thermal radiation flux cause different damage to people. In this application, the damage radius of different areas is determined by different ranges of thermal radiation flux. Specifically, according to the formula:

[0094]

[0095] Determine the damage radius L of the damage calibration area 区域 Where, I 区域-多米诺 For combustion tank P i The thermal radiation flux of the damage calibration area during the boiling period, m″ is the mass burning rate of the crude oil during stable combustion, D i For combustion tank P i Diameter, ΔH c is the calorific value of crude oil, η is the combustion efficiency of crude oil;

[0096] Among them, I 区域-多米诺 ={I 死亡-多米诺 , I 重伤-多米诺 , I 轻伤-多米诺}, corresponding to L 区域 ={L 死亡 , L 重伤 , L 轻伤}, I 死亡-多米诺 For combustion tank P i Thermal radiation flux in the dead zone during boiling period, I 重伤-多米诺 For combustion tank P i Thermal radiation flux of the severely injured area during the boiling period, I 轻伤-多米诺 For combustion tank P i Thermal radiation flux of the slightly damaged area during the boiling period, L 死亡 For combustion tank P i Damage radius of the dead zone during boiling, L重伤 For combustion tank P i Damage radius of the severely injured area during the boiling period, L 轻伤 For combustion tank P i Damage radius of the lightly damaged area during the boiling period.

[0097] Without considering the domino effect, the probability of a single tank accident is equal to the total probability of a tank farm accident. In a specific example, after considering the domino effect, the damage radius of different damage calibration areas has different degrees of expansion, as shown in Table 3:

[0098] Table 3 Regional damage radius table

[0099]

[0100] As shown in Table 3, after considering the domino effect, the affected areas of different injury zones have expanded to varying degrees. The injury radius of the death zone has increased by about 0.73 times, the injury radius of the serious injury zone has increased by about 0.75 times, and the injury radius of the light injury zone has increased by about 0.85 times. This shows that the domino effect of boiling fire accidents in the tank area has a significant impact on the risk of the tank area, and measures should be taken to control or weaken its impact.

[0101] Therefore, by measuring the heat radiation flux received by nearby storage tanks during the boiling over period and combining it with the severity of the accident, domino accident calculations are performed to obtain the radius of the death zone, the radius of the serious injury zone, and the radius of the minor injury zone, providing guidance for risk assessment, accident prevention, safety management, and emergency decision-making of crude oil storage tank boiling over fires.

[0102] like Figure 5 As shown, the embodiment of the present application also provides a domino accident risk assessment system for crude oil storage tank boiling fire, comprising:

[0103] The probability determination unit 501 is configured to determine the probability of the combustion tank P based on the i The probability of a single tank accident and the probability of accident expansion Determine the total probability P of domino accidents in the tank area D ; Among them, the accident expansion probability characterizes the burning tank P i When an accident occurs, the accident spreads to the target tank P j The probability of i and j are both positive integers; P i 、P j are the i-th and j-th crude oil storage tanks in the tank farm respectively;

[0104] The severity determination unit 502 is configured to determine the severity of the domino accident according to the total probability P of the tank area. D and the accident severity E of the preset injury calibration area 区域-标 , determine the regional accident severity E of the injury calibration area 区域-多米诺; Among them, the injury calibration areas include: death area, serious injury area and light injury area;

[0105] The heat radiation determination unit 503 is configured to determine the severity of the regional accident E of the injury calibration area according to the 区域-多米诺 and the exposure time t of personnel in the injury calibration area, determine the burning tank P i Thermal radiation flux I in the damage calibration area during the boiling period 区域-多米诺 ;

[0106] The damage radius unit 504 is configured to be based on the burning tank P i Thermal radiation flux I in the damage calibration area during the boiling period 区域-多米诺 , based on the preset damage model, determine the damage radius of the damage calibration area.

[0107] The domino accident risk assessment system for crude oil storage tank boiling fires provided in the embodiment of the present application can implement the steps and processes of the domino accident risk assessment method for crude oil storage tank boiling fires in any of the above embodiments and achieve the same technical effects, which will not be repeated here.

[0108] In the description of the present invention, the terms "one embodiment," "some embodiments," "examples," "specific examples," or "some examples" mean that the specific features, structures, materials, or characteristics described in conjunction with the embodiment or example are included in at least one embodiment or example of the present invention. In this specification, the schematic representations of the above terms do not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Moreover, the specific features, structures, materials, or characteristics described may be combined in any appropriate manner in any one or more embodiments or examples.

[0109] The foregoing description is merely a preferred embodiment of the present application and is not intended to limit the present application. Various modifications and variations are readily apparent to those skilled in the art. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, or improvements made within the spirit and principles of the present application shall be included within the scope of protection of the present application.

Claims

1. A domino accident risk assessment method for crude oil storage tank boiling fire, characterized in that: include: Step S101: Based on the combustion tank P i The probability of a single tank accident and the probability of accident expansion According to the formula: Determine the total probability P of domino accidents in the tank area D Where, For the combustion tank P i The corresponding probability of a single-can domino accident when an accident occurs, For the combustion tank P i The probability of a single tank accident; is the accident expansion probability, representing the combustion tank P i When an accident occurs, the accident spreads to the target tank P j The probability of i 、P j are the i-th and j-th crude oil storage tanks in the tank area respectively; ttf i→j is the accident extension time, characterizing the burning tank P i When an accident occurs, the accident spreads to the target tank P j time; For the combustion tank P i The target tank P when the accident occurs j Total thermal radiation flux received; V j The target tank P j Tank volume; x is the normal distribution function The integral variable of; i, j∈n, i, j, n are all positive integers, and n is the number of the crude oil storage tanks in the tank area; According to the formula: Determine the combustion tank P i The target tank P when the accident occurs j Total thermal radiation flux received Where, I x→j The target tank P j Crude oil storage tank P x The thermal radiation flux; χ is the thermal radiation coefficient, The crude oil storage tank P x Flame heat release rate during boiling period; m ″ is the mass burning rate of crude oil in stable combustion, D x The crude oil storage tank P x Diameter, ΔH c is the calorific value of crude oil, η is the combustion efficiency of crude oil; The crude oil storage tank P x Flame height during boiling over, R x The crude oil storage tank P x Tank radius, d x→j The target tank P j With the crude oil storage tank P x Spacing between tanks; m is the combustion tank P i The number of crude oil storage tanks affected when an accident occurs, m∈n, m is a positive integer; P x For the combustion tank P i The xth crude oil storage tank causing a secondary accident when a boilover accident occurs; Step S102: Accident severity E is determined based on the injury calibration area. 区域-标 and the combustion tank P i The probability of a single tank accident Calculate the regional risk value X of the damage calibration area 区域 , and the regional risk value X of the damage calibration area is determined according to the 区域 And the total probability of domino accidents in the tank area P D , determine the regional accident severity E of the injury calibration area 区域-多米诺 ; Wherein, the injury calibration area includes: death area, serious injury area and light injury area; Step S103: determining the severity of the accident E in the injury calibration area. 区域-多米诺 and the exposure time t of personnel in the injury calibration area, determine the burning tank P i Thermal radiation flux I of the damage calibration area during the boiling period 区域-多米诺 ; Step S104: According to the combustion tank P i Thermal radiation flux I of the damage calibration area during the boiling period 区域-多米诺 , based on a preset damage model, determine the damage radius of the damage calibration area.

2. The domino accident risk assessment method for crude oil storage tank boiling fire according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Step S102 includes: According to the probability of a single tank accident and the accident calibrated severity E 区域-标 , according to the formula: Determine the regional risk value X of the damage calibration area 区域 ; According to the regional risk value X of the damage calibration area 区域 And the total probability of domino accidents in the tank area P D , according to the formula: Determine the regional accident severity E of the injury calibration area 区域-多米诺 .

3. The domino accident risk assessment method for crude oil storage tank boiling fire according to claim 2 is characterized in that: In step S103, according to the formula: Determine the combustion tank P i Thermal radiation flux I in the dead zone during boiling period 死亡-多米诺 Where, E 死亡-多米诺 is the regional accident severity of the death zone, t is the combustion tank P i The exposure time of personnel in the event of an accident.

4. The domino accident risk assessment method for crude oil storage tank boiling fire according to claim 2 is characterized in that: In step S103, according to the formula: Determine the combustion tank P i Thermal radiation flux I of the severely injured area during the boiling period 重伤-多米诺 Where, E 重伤-多米诺 is the regional accident severity of the death zone.

5. The domino accident risk assessment method for crude oil storage tank boiling fire according to claim 2 is characterized in that: In step S103, according to the formula: Determine the combustion tank P i Thermal radiation flux I of the slightly injured area during the boiling period 轻伤-多米诺 Where, E 轻伤-多米诺 is the regional accident severity of the lightly injured area.

6. The domino accident risk assessment method for crude oil storage tank boiling fire according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In step S104, according to the formula: Determine the damage radius L of the damage calibration area 区域 Where, I 区域-多米诺 For the combustion tank P i Thermal radiation flux of the damage calibration area during the boiling period, m ″ is the mass burning rate of crude oil in stable combustion, D i For the combustion tank P i Diameter, ΔH c is the calorific value of crude oil, η is the combustion efficiency of crude oil; Among them, I 区域-多米诺 ={I 死亡-多米诺 , I 重伤-多米诺 , I 轻伤-多米诺 }, corresponding to L 区域 ={L 死亡 , L 重伤 , L 轻伤 }, I 死亡-多米诺 For the combustion tank P i The thermal radiation flux of the dead zone during the boiling period, I 重伤-多米诺 For the combustion tank P i The thermal radiation flux of the severely injured area during the boiling period, I 轻伤-多米诺 For the combustion tank P i Thermal radiation flux of the slightly injured area during the boiling period, L 死亡 For the combustion tank P i Damage radius of the dead zone during the boiling period, L 重伤 For the combustion tank P i The damage radius of the severely injured area during the boiling period, L 轻伤 For the combustion tank P i The damage radius of the lightly damaged area during the boiling period.

7. A domino accident risk assessment system for crude oil storage tank boiling fires, characterized in that: include: The probability determination unit is configured to determine the probability of the combustion tank P based on the combustion tank P i The probability of a single tank accident and the probability of accident expansion According to the formula: Determine the total probability P of domino accidents in the tank area D Where, For the combustion tank P i The corresponding probability of a single-can domino accident when an accident occurs, For the combustion tank P i The probability of a single tank accident; is the accident expansion probability, representing the combustion tank P i When an accident occurs, the accident spreads to the target tank P j The probability of i 、P j are the i-th and j-th crude oil storage tanks in the tank area respectively; ttf i→j is the accident extension time, characterizing the burning tank P i When an accident occurs, the accident spreads to the target tank P j time; For the combustion tank P i The target tank P when the accident occurs j Total thermal radiation flux received; V j The target tank P j Tank volume; x is the normal distribution function The integral variable of; i, j∈n, i, j, n are all positive integers, and n is the number of the crude oil storage tanks in the tank area; According to the formula: Determine the combustion tank P i The target tank P when the accident occurs j Total thermal radiation flux received Where, I x→j The target tank P j Crude oil storage tank P x The thermal radiation flux; χ is the thermal radiation coefficient, The crude oil storage tank P x Flame heat release rate during boiling period; m ″ is the mass burning rate of crude oil in stable combustion, D x The crude oil storage tank P x Diameter, ΔH c is the calorific value of crude oil, η is the combustion efficiency of crude oil; The crude oil storage tank P x Flame height during boiling over, R x The crude oil storage tank P x Tank radius, d x→j The target tank P j With the crude oil storage tank P x Spacing between tanks; m is the combustion tank P i The number of crude oil storage tanks affected when an accident occurs, m∈n, m is a positive integer; P x For the combustion tank P i The xth crude oil storage tank causing a secondary accident when a boilover accident occurs; The severity determination unit is configured to calibrate the severity E of the accident according to the injury calibration area. 区域-标 and the combustion tank P i The probability of a single tank accident Calculate the regional risk value X of the damage calibration area 区域 , and the regional risk value X of the damage calibration area is determined according to the 区域 And the total probability of domino accidents in the tank area P D , determine the regional accident severity E of the injury calibration area 区域-多米诺 ; Wherein, the injury calibration area includes: death area, serious injury area and light injury area; The heat radiation determination unit is configured to determine the severity of the regional accident E of the injury calibration area according to the 区域-多米诺 and the exposure time t of personnel in the injury calibration area, determine the burning tank P i Thermal radiation flux I of the damage calibration area during the boiling period 区域-多米诺 ; Damage radius unit, configured according to the burning tank P i Thermal radiation flux I of the damage calibration area during the boiling period 区域-多米诺 , based on a preset damage model, determine the damage radius of the damage calibration area.

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